Tag: EUDR

Coffee Sector Lags on Deforestation Commitments, Forest 500 Finds

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DUBAI – Qahwa World

The European Union’s landmark Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is driving corporate change across Europe, yet the coffee sector remains one of the weakest performers on key deforestation-risk indicators, according to the 2026 edition of the Forest 500 report released by UK-based environmental NGO Global Canopy.

Now in its 12th year, the annual Forest 500 assessment ranks 500 companies with the greatest influence over nine forest-risk commodities: beef, cocoa, coffee, leather, palm oil, pulp and paper, rubber, soy, and timber, using only publicly available information disclosed on company websites.

Global Canopy has publicly opposed further delays or simplifications to the EUDR. The Forest 500 initiative is supported by Climate Arc and the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad).

“While some battles have been won, this year’s Forest 500 data shows that the fight against deforestation is still being needlessly lost,” the report’s executive summary states. “The year 2025 was at the heart of high-profile corporate targets to end deforestation, but these have now been missed. As in previous years, too few companies are acting with enough urgency.”

Limited Progress Across Sectors

Just 68 of the 500 companies (14%) referenced the EUDR in their public deforestation-related disclosures. Traceability mechanisms showed improvement across eight of the nine commodities. However, the report describes the EUDR as arriving “in a delayed and diluted form” following the EU’s decision to postpone enforcement to December 30, 2026 for large and medium operators and traders, and June 30, 2027 for micro and small operators.

The regulation, adopted in 2023 and originally scheduled for late 2024 enforcement, aims to block deforestation-linked products from entering European supply chains.

Mixed Results for Coffee

The coffee sector delivered a mixed performance. The share of Forest 500 companies with a public deforestation-free commitment for coffee rose to 47% in 2025, up from 44% the year before. Public evidence of traceability systems also improved, climbing to 18% from 14%.

Yet on one of the report’s most concrete metrics, the percentage of companies publicly reporting that more than half their coffee volumes are deforestation- and conversion-free, coffee ranked near the bottom of all nine commodities at just 5%, down from 7% in 2024. Only leather scored lower, at 1%.

How Companies Are Scored and Categorized

Each company receives a percentage score: 25% based on the strength of its commitments and 75% on implementation, reporting, and verification.

The report groups companies into three categories:

  • Leaders: Strong commitments across all relevant commodities and significantly stronger implementation than peers.
  • Late Majority: Some intent to address deforestation, but only partial commitments and weak implementation progress.
  • Laggards: No zero-deforestation or conversion-free commitments at all.

Separately, the report identifies 14 companies that backtracked on deforestation action and 24 “persistent laggards” that have failed to publish any deforestation commitment since 2014.

Coffee Sector Standouts

Among coffee-relevant companies, Nestlé is the only Leader highlighted, scoring 71%. The company disclosed that at least 80% of its volumes in beef, coffee, palm oil, pulp and paper, and soy were deforestation- and conversion-free in 2025.

Italian firm FinLav appears in the Laggard category with a 23% score. Vietnamese coffee company Thang Loi Coffee Joint Stock Company is listed among the 14 backtrackers.

Several major roasters and buyers fall into the Late Majority: Starbucks (36%), JDE Peet’s (41%), Keurig Dr Pepper (26%), and JM Smucker (14%). On the trading side, scores include Louis Dreyfus (65%), Neumann Kaffee Gruppe (45%), Ecom Agroindustrial (38%), and Sucafina (36%).

Important Context

The Forest 500 captures only a slice of the global coffee industry and evaluates companies solely on what they publicly disclose on their own websites; it does not independently verify on-the-ground performance.

The full 2026 Forest 500 report is available at forest500.org.

ICO, IACO Sign MoU on Coffee Cooperation

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Agreement at World of Coffee San Diego focuses on data, regulation, and support for Africa’s coffee sector

San Diego — Qahwa World

The first day of World of Coffee San Diego saw the International Coffee Organization (ICO) and the Inter-African Coffee Organisation (IACO) formalise their cooperation through the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).The agreement builds on an existing relationship between the two institutions and outlines areas for closer coordination across data, research, and policy support for African coffee-producing countries.

Structured Cooperation Across Key Areas

The MoU establishes a framework for collaboration in several technical and strategic areas relevant to the evolving coffee landscape.

These include improving data collection and analysis, supporting compliance with regulatory developments such as the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), advancing research into climate resilience, and strengthening capacity along the coffee value chain.

While the agreement does not introduce binding commitments, it provides a basis for coordinated initiatives and information exchange between the two organisations.

Africa’s Position in Focus

The partnership also reflects a continued effort to better integrate African perspectives into global coffee discussions.

African producing countries play a significant role in global coffee supply, yet continue to face structural challenges, including exposure to climate risks, limited access to finance, and evolving market requirements.

Through closer institutional coordination, the ICO and IACO aim to support member countries in navigating these challenges and engaging more effectively with international frameworks.

Institutional Context

The International Coffee Organization, established in 1963, serves as an intergovernmental platform for cooperation between coffee-exporting and importing countries, with a focus on market transparency, sustainability, and sector development.

The Inter-African Coffee Organisation represents African coffee-producing nations and works to promote production, improve quality, and enhance the competitiveness of the region’s coffee sector.

The MoU reflects a continuation of engagement between the two bodies rather than a new institutional direction.

World of Coffee as a Meeting Point

World of Coffee, organised by the Specialty Coffee Association, provides a platform for industry stakeholders ranging from producers and exporters to roasters, researchers, and policymakers.

The San Diego edition highlights ongoing conversations around sustainability, regulation, and market dynamics, with a growing emphasis on coordination between producing and consuming regions.

Participants

  • Vanusia Nogueira, Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization
  • H.E. Ambassador Solomon Rutega, Secretary General of the Inter-African Coffee Organisation
  • Claude Bizimana, Executive Chairman of the Inter-African Coffee Organisation
  • Celestine Gataraiha, Director of Research and Development at the Inter-African Coffee Organisation

Analysis

Memoranda of understanding are a common instrument in international cooperation, often used to formalise intent and provide a structure for future collaboration rather than immediate operational change.

In this context, the ICO–IACO agreement can be seen as part of a broader pattern of institutional alignment within the coffee sector, particularly as regulatory and environmental pressures increase.

Its practical significance will depend on how the outlined areas of cooperation translate into concrete programmes and measurable outcomes over time.

Reporting by Qahwa World from San Diego

Bridging the Gap: An Exclusive Dialogue with Vanusia Nogueira on the Global Coffee Crisis and the Path to 2026

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From regulatory hurdles like the EUDR to the volatile C-Market and climate resilience, the Director General of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) outlines a strategic roadmap for a fairer global coffee value chain.

Dubai – Ali Alzakary

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) is the primary intergovernmental body dedicated to fostering a sustainable coffee sector. At its helm stands Mrs. Vanusia Nogueira, a visionary leader whose tenure has been defined by a relentless pursuit of equity for smallholder farmers.

This exclusive interview marks a historic moment—the first dialogue granted by the Director General to an Arabic media outlet. We are profoundly grateful to Mrs. Nogueira for graciously accepting our invitation. Beyond her professional stature, her humility and the sincerity with which she approached this conversation were truly remarkable. In an industry often characterized by formal diplomacy, her transparency and candor provided a clear and honest look at the challenges facing our sector. We are deeply indebted to her for her time, her precision, and the kindness she showed throughout this significant exchange.

  • Now that we are well into 2026, how do you personally see the ICO’s role in helping smallholder farmers cope with regulations like the EUDR and other environmental requirements?

The ICO acts as a vital bridge between producing and consuming nations. With 75% to 80% of global coffee producers being smallholders, our role is to make policymakers understand the ground-level challenges. There is often a lot of good intentions behind regulations, but policymakers and consumers are often unaware of how difficult it is to comply in the field. We educate these stakeholders and bring together partners—governments, development agencies, and the industry—to provide the technical and financial support that vulnerable communities need to make these transitions feasible and viable.

  • Traceability and data systems are becoming unavoidable. How can we ensure these costs don’t end up being paid mainly by small farmers?

We are building partnerships with the consuming side—the industry and governments—to support the infrastructure needed, from geolocations to databases. In many countries, the key issue is internal infrastructure, such as internet access. We are working with partners like the German, UK, and Italian governments to implement these systems. Furthermore, we need to educate consumers on why it is fair to pay a little more. Transparency is essential; we must show that these margins are necessary for producers to survive and thrive.

  • Looking back at 2025, has the industry made progress toward a “living income,” or are we still stuck with the C-Market logic?

Vanusia Nogueira: The sector learned in the past two years that a living income is not just about price. It is about closing gaps in productivity, yield, and infrastructure like healthcare and education. While producers in some regions reached a comfortable level last year due to higher prices, others are still struggling. A key solution is for small producers to stop working in isolation; they must organize into cooperatives or associations to access new markets and technical assistance together.

  • Regarding the climate impact on specific origins—in Yemen, for example, the harvest has become fragmented into multiple stages and quantities are dropping. How do you view this?

The situation in Yemen—where you have three or four harvests from the same tree instead of one—is a clear symptom of climate change that we must analyze deeply. We have seen similar shifts in Brazil. We need to understand if the traditional varieties in Yemen—which is one of the original homes of Arabica—are still suitable for this new climate or if we need to renovate the plantations with more resilient strains. Yemen’s heritage is a global priority, and scientists must work to find solutions that protect its unique productivity.

  • There is a growing debate about responsibility. Are large roasters and traders doing enough today?

I see major roasters and traders working very closely with producing countries on “pre-competitive” actions to address these challenges. I am in constant contact with global industry leaders, and I am confident they are totally open to new solutions and are supporting the initiatives needed to stabilize the sector.

  • How should the sector approach lab-grown and alternative coffee products without losing the value of natural coffee?

Vanusia Nogueira: Communication and clarity are paramount. It must be clear to everyone what is “real coffee” and what is a substitute. Natural coffee has scientifically proven health benefits, whereas the impact of chemical or artificial alternatives is often unmentioned. In countries like Brazil and Vietnam, regulations already exist to ensure that packaging for substitutes cannot claim to be “coffee.” We must continue to express why natural coffee remains superior for health and culture.

  • Price swings have been extreme. What is actually driving this volatility?

It is a matter of a “short blanket”—supply and demand. Severe weather events since 2021—frosts in Brazil, droughts in Vietnam and Africa, and typhoons—have lowered production while consumption is surging, particularly in the Middle East and Asia. We are currently working with AI experts to create models that can better predict these events to help us protect production in the short and long term.

  • Markets like the Middle East are now shaping their own identities. How does the ICO plan to engage with them?

The Middle East is a driver of the industry. Saudi Arabia became an official member of the ICO six months ago, and I visited Riyadh recently to touch base with the situation there. I also heard incredible things about the “World of Coffee Dubai” event two weeks ago—people told me it was a truly “crazy” and amazing event. We need to be present in these markets, working as partners to improve communication and support these maturing consumer bases.

  • What role can consumer regions—including the Arab world—play in supporting producers beyond certifications?

The Arab world can play a strategic role as a “catalytic investor.” Beyond labels, their impact lies in investment, partnership, and system-building. They can help de-risk innovation and climate adaptation at the origin. By supporting logistics, research, and digital agriculture, they can help reshape how value and responsibility are shared across the sector.

  • If you could speak directly to the global sector in 2026, what would you say needs to change most urgently?

Vanusia Nogueira: What needs to change most urgently is how risk and value are distributed. Today, smallholders absorb most of the impact of price volatility and climate change. Coffee must be treated not just as a commodity, but as a global public good. If producers earn a prosperous income, the entire sector becomes resilient. That change cannot wait.

  • Editorial Highlights

“Coffee must be treated not just as a commodity, but as a global public good that supports livelihoods, ecosystems, and cultures.”

“Yemen is the cradle of Arabica; we must ensure that its historic coffee heritage survives the challenges of a changing climate.”

“The ‘World of Coffee Dubai’ was an amazing, high-energy event that proved the Arab world is now a central driver of the global coffee industry.”

“A living income is not just about prices—it is about productivity, healthcare, and education. Doubling prices is not enough if the foundation is missing.”

“We must be clear with consumers: natural coffee has scientifically proven health benefits that chemical substitutes simply cannot match.”

“The Arab world has the power to be a ‘catalytic investor,’ moving beyond labels to truly de-risk innovation at the origin.”

 

Why Dubai Coffee Traders Must Prepare for EUDR now?

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The December 2026 EUDR deadline will reshape how African coffee reaches European consumers — and traders in the Gulf are caught in the middle.

By Raymond Reuel Wayesu

Dubai has become the Middle East’s dominant coffee trading hub, with re-exports valued at nearly $1 billion annually and over 615 licensed traders operating through the DMCC Coffee Centre. Much of this coffee originates in East Africa — Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya — and is destined for European roasters and retailers.
But a regulatory storm is approaching that threatens to disrupt these established trade flows.

  • What is the EUDR?

The EU Deforestation Regulation (Regulation 2023/1115), which takes effect on 30 December 2026, requires that all coffee entering the European market be verified as “deforestation-free” with plot-level geolocation data. Importers must submit Due Diligence Statements proving their coffee was not grown on land deforested after December 2020.
The scale of this requirement is unprecedented. For Uganda alone, this means geolocating approximately 1.7 million smallholder coffee farmers, each cultivating an average of just 0.18 hectares.

  • Why should Dubai-based traders care?

Here’s the critical issue: traceability chains break when coffee passes through intermediary hubs.

Research from CIFOR-ICRAF found that EUDR compliance maps contain significant accuracy problems—claiming “12% more forest globally than national FAO data” with an “18% chance that a spatial unit marked as forest is considered non-forest in other data” (van Noordwijk et al., 2025). The same researchers warn that smallholders practising agroforestry – the very farmers who have preserved Africa’s remaining coffee forests – could become “collateral damage” of poorly designed compliance systems.

For traders handling mixed-origin lots, the risk compounds. Under EUDR, mixing compliant and non-compliant coffee renders entire shipments non-compliant. Industry analysis estimates that 50% of EU coffee imports are “disenfranchised” — passing through multiple intermediaries with up to ten handlers between farmer and exporter.

The Overseas Development Institute warns that Ethiopia could face “an 18.4% drop in overall exports and a 0.6% decrease in GDP” if coffee exports to the EU cease (Keane et al., 2024). Uganda, now Africa’s largest coffee exporter by volume with 60% of exports destined for Europe, faces similar exposure. UNCTAD’s analysis is stark: “Traceable coffee is only possible with an estimated 10% of Ugandan producers” given its 1.8 million smallholder farming households.

A Stanford-led review concludes that “despite zero-deforestation commitments, high rates of deforestation persist” and that “supply chain initiatives only cover a small share of tropical deforestation” (Lambin & Furumo, 2023). Wageningen University researchers examining Cameroon and Ethiopia warn that “smallholder farmers may face greater challenges than currently anticipated by the EU” due to “limited awareness and infrastructural gaps that hinder traceability” (Ten Hove et al., 2025).

The traders who solve this traceability gap will maintain their EU market access. Those who don’t risk being cut off from Europe’s €8 billion coffee market — or facing penalties of up to 4% of EU turnover.

  • What can traders do now?

With 12 months until enforcement, the window for preparation is narrowing. Practical steps include auditing your supply chain exposure to identify which suppliers and origins lack plot-level geolocation data, engaging with origin-country traceability initiatives such as Uganda’s National Traceability System, and evaluating compliance technology partners.

  • A note on validation

Full disclosure: I’m the founder of ProofSource, a coffee traceability platform being developed for EUDR compliance. But I’m sharing this analysis because the problem is real and urgent — regardless of which solution traders ultimately choose.
We’re currently in validation mode, offering free 30-day EUDR Readiness Assessments to coffee exporters and traders. This diagnostic service maps your supply chain exposure, identifies traceability gaps, and delivers a personalised compliance roadmap — before we build our full platform. We believe in testing whether the market truly needs what we’re building before we build it. Request your assessment at proofsource.vercel.app

Building the complete solution — particularly the satellite verification infrastructure needed to verify deforestation-free status at scale — requires significant investment. We’re actively seeking partnerships with climate-focused research institutions, coffee industry funds, and innovation programmes in the Gulf region who share our mission of protecting smallholder market access while preventing deforestation.

If you’re a Dubai- or Abu Dhabi-based trader wanting to understand your EUDR exposure, or a research institution interested in collaborating on coffee supply chain traceability, I welcome the conversation.

The December 2026 deadline will arrive faster than anyone expects. The traders who act now will be positioned to maintain their European market access. Those who wait may find themselves scrambling — or shut out entirely.

Raymond Reuel Wayesu is the founder of ProofSource and a PhD candidate in machine learning and computer vision for agriculture.
Contact: [email protected] | [email protected]

Brazilian Real Firming Lifts Arabica Coffee as Market Signals Remain Mixed

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Dubai – Qahwa World

March arabica coffee (KCH26) rose slightly by +0.15 (+0.04%) on Tuesday, while January ICE robusta (RMF26) slipped -15 (-0.34%), hitting a 1.5-week low. The day’s movements reflect a split market, with arabica gaining support from a stronger Brazilian real, now at a two-week high against the US dollar. The firmer currency is discouraging export sales from Brazil’s growers, helping arabica prices edge upward.

Robusta, however, is under pressure. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reported that around 10% of the country’s robusta harvest is now complete and forecasted that expected drier weather will accelerate harvesting through the month. Vietnam is the world’s largest robusta producer, and signs of increased output continue to weigh on prices.

Weather conditions in Brazil are offering some support to the market. Somar Meteorologia noted that Minas Gerais—Brazil’s main arabica-producing region—received only 20.4 mm of rain in the week ending November 28, equivalent to 39% of the historical average.

Coffee inventories monitored by ICE continue to tighten. US tariffs on coffee imports from Brazil triggered a sharp drawdown in stocks. ICE-certified arabica inventories reached a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20, while robusta inventories fell today to an 11-month low of 4,115 lots. American buyers have cancelled new Brazilian coffee contracts due to the tariffs, tightening domestic supply. US imports of Brazilian coffee from August to October fell 52% year-on-year to 983,970 bags.

On the policy side, the outlook for ample supply strengthened after the European Parliament approved a one-year delay to the European Union’s anti-deforestation law (EUDR). The postponement allows EU members to continue importing agricultural commodities—including coffee—from regions in Africa, Indonesia, and South America where deforestation remains a concern.

Several supply signals are weighing on the market. StoneX recently projected Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at 70.7 million bags, including 47.2 million bags of arabica, a 29% year-on-year increase. Vietnam’s supply outlook also remains heavy: its Jan–Oct exports rose 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 MMT, and 2025/26 production is expected to grow by 6% to 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags), a four-year high. Vicofa additionally suggested that Vietnam’s 2025/26 output could rise by 10% if favorable weather continues.

Some indicators continue to signal tightening global supply. The International Coffee Organization reported that global exports for the current Oct–Sep cycle slipped 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags. In Brazil, Conab cut its 2025 arabica estimate by 4.9% in September, lowering the projection to 35.2 million bags. Total Brazilian coffee output was trimmed to 55.2 million bags.

Longer-term forecasts from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service expect global production to rise 2.5% in 2025/26 to a record 178.68 million bags. The outlook includes a 1.7% decline in arabica output to 97.022 million bags, alongside a 7.9% increase in robusta to 81.658 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to rise 4.9% to 22.819 million bags.

European Parliament Delays EUDR Implementation for Second Time

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BRUSSELS – Qahwa World

The European Union voted on November 26, 2025, to approve a new and unprecedented delay to the implementation of the “European Union Deforestation Regulation” (EUDR), a move that reflects the scale of the logistical and political challenges facing the continent’s most prominent environmental legislation. The delay decision secured the approval of a majority of 402 votes to 250, granting trade sectors an additional year to prepare.

The Deforestation Regulation mandates that companies importing seven key commodities, including coffee, cocoa, palm oil, and rubber, must prove they are free from any link to deforestation that occurred after the end of 2020. This requires “Due Diligence” systems based on precise geographical location data.

The delay came in response to concerns raised by Member States and the trade community, particularly regarding the readiness of the EU’s central IT system (TRACES) and the burden the law imposes on smallholder farmers and Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs).

The new decision established the official compliance deadlines as follows:

  • Large and Medium Operators: The deadline is December 30, 2026.
  • Micro and Small Enterprises: The deadline is June 30, 2027.

The Parliament also approved crucial “simplification” measures, most notably reducing the due diligence requirements for small companies, and including a clause mandating the European Commission to conduct a comprehensive review of the regulation by April 2026 to assess the administrative burdens. Another notable amendment was the exclusion of printed materials such as books and newspapers from the regulation’s scope.

This postponement has sparked mixed reactions, revealing deep polarization in the market. While small producers and farmers welcomed the extra time to invest in traceability systems, multinational companies that initiated compliance early—including major coffee firms—expressed their disappointment.

These companies warned that repeated delays “increase legal uncertainty in the market and harm pioneer companies” that committed to the requirements early. Conversely, environmental organizations voiced concern that the delay represents a green light for more deforestation-linked commodities to enter the European market for an additional year.

Next Steps

The November 26th vote is a key legislative step, but the decision is not yet final. The amended text must now enter into “Trilogue” negotiations between the Parliament, the Council, and the Commission to reach a final consensus formula before it can be ratified and published in the Official Journal to become law with the new dates.

Sucafina Releases Key Update on Vietnam’s 2025/26 Coffee Harvest

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Vietnam Harvest Update 2025/26: Delayed Start, Strong Outlook

Dubai – Qahwa World

With global markets closely monitoring Vietnam, recent heavy rains from Storm 15 have attracted significant attention among those keen to understand the weather’s impact on supply. We caught up with Khoi Nguyen, Trading Manager at Sucafina Vietnam, for an update. Khoi tells us that despite rain-driven delays and labor tightness, the outlook remains positive, with production increases expected and quality indicators trending upward.

  • Production on the rise: Vietnam’s combined Robusta & Arabica 2025/26 Coffee crop is forecast at 31.2 million bags, up 12% year on year.
  • Heavy rains delaying progress: Excessive rainfall has slowed harvesting (14% of Robusta completed vs. ~25% historical average), compounded by labor shortages.
  • Strong quality prospects: Favorable cherry development and solid farm investment support expectations for improved overall quality.

Harvest Status: Delayed but Resilient

Despite the weather challenges making headlines, Vietnam’s coffee harvest is showing remarkable resilience. Khoi and the team project a total production of 31.2 million bags – a 12% increase over last year. This includes 29.9 million bags of Robusta (up 11.5%) and 1.3 million bags of Arabica (up 19%). These numbers exceed our earlier forecasts (+6%) and sit well above the five-year average. Early-season agronomic conditions were favorable, and ongoing investment in farming helped set a strong foundation.

Recent weeks of intense rainfall have slowed harvesting across key Robusta regions. As of 25 November, only 14% of the crop had been harvested, compared with 17% at the same time last season. Labor availability is also lower this year, adding pressure to farm operations. However, sustained high coffee prices over two consecutive years provide farmers resources and incentives to manage these difficulties. If weather stabilizes, quality is expected to improve over last year.

2025/26 Harvest Timing

Robusta harvest is expected to peak in mid-December, with farmers busy harvesting, drying, and husking across Vietnam’s major producing areas.

Arabica harvest has reached its peak in the North (accounting for around 70% of the total Arabica crop). Central Arabica regions will peak early-December.

Both Robusta and Arabica harvests should be expected to complete in late January.

Regulatory & Supplier Landscape

Two key regulatory themes affect the supply chain: a 5% VAT on green coffee was introduced in July 2025, and the evolving European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Neither has an immediate impact at the farm level.

A 5% VAT on green coffee trading has been in place since July 2025 (previously only applied to roasted). The VAT has no impact on farmers’ harvesting behavior, but it may influence how exporters manage their supplier base. While it will not impact overall pricing (as VAT is refunded at export), it adds complexity to reporting administration and reduces cash flow somewhat.

Though EUDR details and enforcement timelines remain unclear, Vietnam’s supply chain is proactive. Supplier collaboration on geodata analysis and completion of macro risk assessment data collection position shipments well for 2025 due-diligence requirements.

IMPACT Supply Chains & Sustainability

Our IMPACT verified supply chains in Gia Lai and Lâm Đồng are each progressing through audit cycles. IMPACT-verified coffees will be available starting December 2025.

In Arabica regions, we have successfully registered and audited over 1,500 new farmers in Son La and Lâm Đồng for Rainforest Alliance (RA), 4C, and C.A.F.E. Practices certifications. These farmers have also completed training on RA and other agricultural standards. Other sustainability initiatives, including composting, tree planting, GAP training, and soil sampling, continue per earlier updates.

Outlook

While heavy rains understandably raise concerns, the broader view is optimistic. Vietnam is positioned to deliver a larger coffee crop with strong quality potential, grounded in sustained farmer investment and solid production forecasts. Weather stability in December and January remains critical. If conditions normalize, the 2025/26 season could mark one of Vietnam’s strongest performances in recent years.

Farmers’ gains from two years of high prices bolster reinvestment but also elevate their pricing expectations. For roasters and traders, this underscores the importance of early engagement on volumes and quality to secure desired lots.

Despite the media spotlight on weather-related challenges, the reality is nuanced: delays and risks require careful monitoring, but strong production volumes, sound quality fundamentals, and a mature, sustainability-focused supply chain provide confidence. If you are interested in learning more about our Vietnam supply chain or booking coffee from Vietnam, reach out to your trader!

Swedes’ Passion for Coffee Tops the List of Amazon Deforestation Drivers

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Dubai – Qahwa World

A new study shows that everyday purchasing habits in Europe directly influence the state of Brazil’s tropical forests, and in Sweden, coffee stands out as the main contributor. The country’s strong appetite for coffee has a larger impact on Amazon deforestation than its consumption of beef or soy.

Researchers from Chalmers University of Technology, the Stockholm Environment Institute and WWF produced an extensive analysis combining satellite imagery, agricultural output data and global consumption models. Their assessment provides one of the most detailed views to date of how consumer choices affect forest loss in the Amazon.

On the global level, cattle farming remains the primary force driving the destruction of Amazon forests, with pastures still expanding by around 1.4 million hectares every year. Degraded pastures are often converted into cropland instead of being restored. Soy production follows as another major cause, with 8.6 million hectares of forest lost between 2018 and 2022 due to beef and soy cultivation. Other crops competing for tropical forest land include rice, sorghum, palm oil, cocoa and coffee.

When researchers examined Sweden specifically, they found that coffee consumption had a greater impact on Amazon deforestation than the country’s consumption of beef or soy. In 2022 alone, Swedish coffee demand was linked to the loss of around 331 hectares of forest — the equivalent of 463 football fields. One of the authors explained that global discussions often highlight soy and livestock production, leaving the role of coffee less recognized.

Sweden ranks among the highest coffee-consuming nations in Europe, with an average of 12.3 kilograms per person per year. Several countries — including Lithuania, Estonia and Luxembourg — consume even more.

The study also found that the environmental impact varies significantly depending on the origin of the coffee beans. The European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), intended to restrict products tied to forest destruction, was scheduled to take effect on 30 December 2025. However, the European Parliament decided to postpone its implementation by one year. A German MEP stressed that Europe’s demand for coffee, cocoa, beef and similar goods results in roughly 100 trees being cut or burned every minute and called for the regulation to be applied as soon as possible.

Coffee Prices Settle Lower Despite Inventory Tightness

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures closed lower on Wednesday, primarily due to an improved global supply outlook after a key European regulation was delayed. March arabica coffee (KCH26) settled down -3.60 (-0.94%), and January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) closed down -46 (-1.01%).

The principal downward pressure on coffee prices stemmed from the European Parliament’s approval of a one-year delay to the Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). This regulation, which aims to combat deforestation in countries exporting key commodities like coffee to the EU, will now allow EU countries to continue importing agricultural products from regions in Africa, Indonesia, and South America where deforestation may be occurring. This delay ensures a more ample and continuous flow of global coffee supplies into the European market.

Further reinforcing the bearish outlook are strong production forecasts. StoneX predicted last Wednesday that Brazil’s coffee production for the new 2026/27 marketing year will hit 70.7 million bags, representing a significant year-over-year increase of +29%. Arabica production is specifically forecasted at 47.2 million bags. Signs of increasing robusta supplies are also evident in Vietnam. The country’s Jan-Oct 2025 coffee exports rose +13.4% year-over-year to 1.31 MMT. Furthermore, the 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a four-year high of 29.4 million bags (1.76 MMT), a forecast supported by the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa).

Despite the overall downward movement, losses were limited by several supportive factors, including adverse weather and tightening inventories. Arabica prices found support due to dryness in Brazil’s largest arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, which received only 49% of its historical average rainfall in the week ended November 21. Robusta prices were also supported by forecasts of heavy showers in Vietnam’s Dak Lak province, which is expected to further delay the harvest in the world’s largest robusta producer.

Shrinking ICE coffee inventories have also been supportive of prices. ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags last Thursday, and robusta inventories hit a 6.25-month low on Wednesday. This drawdown has been largely attributed to the previous US tariffs imposed on coffee imports from Brazil, which caused US buyers to void new contracts and tightened US supplies. However, arabica coffee experienced a sharp tumble last Friday after President Trump signed an executive order late Thursday that exempted Brazilian food products, including coffee, from those tariffs, potentially easing supply concerns moving forward.

Finally, there are mixed signals from global supply data. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct-Sep) fell slightly by 0.3% y/y to 138.658 million bags, suggesting tighter global supplies recently. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projects world coffee production in 2025/26 to increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, but forecasts a -1.7% decrease in arabica production, offering mixed signals.

In summary, the near-term supply outlook, bolstered by the EU regulation delay and massive Brazilian crop forecasts, outweighed the temporary support from weather issues and shrinking inventories, pushing coffee prices lower for the day.

Global Coffee Market Value to Hit $186.5 Billion by 2033

Posted on by Qahwa World

The Fourth Wave Defines Trends and Shapes the Global Coffee Market Landscape

Dublin — Qahwa World

The global coffee industry is no longer just about waking up; it is about waking up to a new economic reality. According to a landmark report released yesterday by ResearchAndMarkets.com, the global coffee market is projected to surge from US$ 121.69 billion in 2024 to US$ 186.55 billion by 2033, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.86%.

While the headline figures suggest steady growth, the underlying currents reveal a volatile, transformative landscape. As we approach the end of 2025, the industry is navigating a “perfect storm” of climate-induced price shocks, a regulatory overhaul in Europe, and a massive consumption pivot toward the Asia-Pacific region.

The Asian Renaissance: Beyond the Tea Leaf

The report identifies the Asia Pacific (APAC) region as the primary engine of future growth, a trend confirmed by on-the-ground developments in late 2024 and 2025.

While Europe remains the revenue leader, Asia is where the volume is shifting. The “Third Wave” of coffee—characterized by artisanal appreciation and traceability—has made landfall in traditionally tea-drinking nations.

India’s Awakening: The data aligns with India’s aggressive rise as both a consumer and exporter. Just this week, Starbucks reaffirmed its commitment to the subcontinent, celebrating its 500th store opening in Delhi NCR. Under the leadership of new global CEO Brian Niccol, the Seattle giant is doubling down on India, announcing a Farmer Support Partnership aiming to train 10,000 local farmers by 2030. This is a strategic hedge; as growth in China faces stiff competition from local price-warriors like Luckin Coffee, India represents the next great frontier for premiumization.

The Robusta Revival: Vietnam and Indonesia are capitalizing on the global shortage of Arabica beans. With climate change shrinking Arabica’s arable land, high-quality Asian Robusta (often called “Fine Robusta”) is entering the mainstream blends of major roasters to keep price points stable.

The Price of Sustainability: The EUDR Factor

The report highlights “sustainability benchmarking” as a key competitive differentiator, but in late 2025, sustainability is less about marketing and more about regulatory survival.

The industry is currently breathing a collective—albeit temporary—sigh of relief following the European Union’s decision to delay the Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) implementation to December 2026. This regulation, which bans the import of commodities linked to deforestation, threatened to disrupt supply chains for major players like Lavazza, JDE Peet’s, and Nestlé.

However, the delay is not a cancellation. Companies like Lavazza are aggressively pushing their “Roadmap to Zero,” aiming for carbon neutrality in Scope 1 and 2 emissions. The report notes that eco-friendly packaging and circular economy initiatives are no longer optional “nice-to-haves” but essential for maintaining market access in the premium European bloc.

Corporate Battlegrounds: The Fight for the Morning (and Afternoon)

The competitive landscape section of the report details a bifurcation in strategy among key players:

1. The Experience Economy: Starbucks vs. The World

Starbucks is currently executing its “Back to Starbucks” strategy. After a rocky 2024, the focus has returned to operational speed and the “human connection.” However, they face a new breed of competitor.

2. The Speed Demons: Dutch Bros

The report lists Dutch Bros as a key disruptor, and for good reason. The drive-thru chain has been on a tear in 2025, aggressively expanding its footprint with approximately 160 new shops opening this year alone. Their model—high-sugar, high-caffeine, cold beverages tailored for Gen Z—is stealing the afternoon “treat” occasion from traditional coffee houses. Their target of 4,000 locations long-term suggests they are moving from a regional cult favorite to a national heavyweight.

3. The At-Home Revolution: Nestlé

Nestlé continues to dominate the at-home segment. With inflation keeping some consumers out of cafes, the “coffee shop at home” trend remains sticky. Nestlé’s 2025 innovation pipeline has heavily favored cold brew solutions and functional coffees (blends with added vitamins or adaptogens), catering to health-conscious millennials who want cafe quality at kitchen table prices.

Outlook: The Tech-Infused Bean

Looking toward 2033, the report suggests that technology will play a pivotal role. From AI-driven agronomy helping farmers navigate erratic weather patterns in Brazil to precision brewing systems in cafes, the “Fourth Wave” of coffee will be defined by data.

As the market marches toward that $186.55 billion valuation, the winners will be those who can balance the rising cost of green coffee (up 30-40% in mid-2025) with the consumer’s demand for ethics, quality, and convenience.

First Look at the Central America Coffee Harvest 2025 / 2026

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Sucafina has published a new field report titled First Look at the 2025 / 2026 Central America Coffee Harvest, offering an early overview of the upcoming season across Central America and Mexico. The report describes a sense of cautious optimism among producers as they prepare for the harvest, buoyed by improved weather conditions during the first half of the year.

According to Sucafina, early indicators suggest a 3% increase in coffee production compared to the previous season, with the first volumes expected to appear in the second half of October and the peak harvest period projected between December and January — a timeline more in line with historical averages for the region.

Oscar Fernando Hurtado Ramirez, Global Head of Production Research at Sucafina, stated that overall crop expectations across the region are positive. “We are expecting more coffee production in each country due to better weather conditions during the first half of the year,” he explained. Total production across Central America and Mexico is forecast to reach around 18 million bags, representing an increase of approximately 570,000 bags compared to the previous cycle.

Improved Crop Quality and Fewer Pests

The report notes that crop quality and conversion rates are also looking favorable this year. Lower pest and disease pressure have created more stable conditions that support plant health and boost yield potential. However, the report warns that coffee leaf rust could rise later in the year, given the higher proportion of susceptible varieties planted across the region combined with wetter conditions expected in October and December.

EUDR Still a Major Concern

Despite the encouraging start to the season, concerns remain high regarding the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Hurtado emphasized that “EUDR remains the biggest concern among farmers and the broader coffee sector.” While progress has been made in preparing for compliance, producers are still uncertain about how the regulation will be implemented in practice—particularly for smallholders who may struggle to meet traceability and verification requirements.

Investing in Education for Lasting Impact

The report also highlights Sucafina’s ongoing social initiatives in Central America, particularly its collaboration with the Seeds for Progress Foundation to strengthen rural education in coffee-growing communities. Active in Guatemala across regions such as Santa Rosa, Jalapa, and Chiquimula, the initiative supports school infrastructure, teacher training, and the creation of safe learning environments for children during the harvest season, when many parents are at work in the fields.

One current project, Opportunity Through Pre-School Education, focuses on improving preschool classrooms in Santa Rosa by providing child-friendly furniture and training for educators. This initiative forms part of Sucafina’s IMPACT program, which promotes responsible sourcing and human rights development at origin.

As the 2025 / 2026 harvest begins to take shape, Sucafina reaffirmed its commitment to supporting both farmers and communities in the region. The company plans to share more updates from the field in the coming weeks and encourages partners to coordinate with their trading teams to plan for the upcoming coffee volumes.

Global Coffee Market Reacts to Tariffs, Rate Cuts, and EU Regulation Uncertainty

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Dubai – Qahwa World

The global coffee market navigated a turbulent September as trade tensions, monetary policy shifts, and regulatory uncertainty reshaped investor sentiment and price dynamics. According to the International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) latest Coffee Market Report for September 2025, the sector was influenced by a combination of U.S. tariff policy, an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and developments surrounding the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Together, these factors created a complex environment of both optimism and caution across producing and consuming regions.

The month began with heightened uncertainty following the decision by the United States to maintain its 50% import tariff on coffee. This came despite a presidential executive order, issued on 8 September, that excluded several commodities from the existing tariff regime. Coffee, however, remained absent from the exemption list, as it is not considered a product that can be sufficiently produced within the U.S. to meet domestic demand. The policy stance kept traders and importers on edge, particularly in light of already tight global supplies and rising domestic roasting costs.

The ICO report noted that the continued imposition of tariffs has dampened export momentum from major producing countries, particularly Brazil, which remains the world’s largest coffee supplier. Exporters faced not only the direct cost of tariffs but also indirect consequences such as higher insurance premiums and delayed shipments. The United States, typically the second-largest destination for Brazilian coffee after Germany, saw imports fall sharply in August — down 46% year-on-year and 26% month-on-month, according to data from Cecafé.

However, as the month progressed, a diplomatic thaw between Washington and Brasília offered a glimmer of optimism. Meetings between senior officials from both countries, held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, were interpreted by market analysts as a potential first step toward resolving trade tensions. Though no formal changes were announced, the dialogue provided reassurance to traders that punitive tariffs might be reviewed later in the year, especially if inflationary pressure continues to ease in the United States.

Adding to the month’s market developments, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on 17 September — its first such move since early 2024. The decision aimed to support economic growth amid signs of slowing consumer spending and lower manufacturing output. For coffee traders, the rate cut brought mixed implications. On one hand, cheaper borrowing encouraged speculative activity in commodity markets, which helped lift prices. On the other, the stronger U.S. dollar that followed the announcement increased costs for buyers using other currencies, especially in emerging markets.

The ICO observed that the daily volatility of the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) rose to 13.8% in September, up from 11% the previous month, partly driven by the interplay of monetary and trade factors. The organization emphasized that such fluctuations reflect not only speculation but also genuine uncertainty about the future of trade flows and regulatory frameworks that govern the industry.

In Europe, a different kind of uncertainty unfolded. The European Commissioner for Environment, Oceans, and Fisheries, responsible for overseeing the Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), expressed concern over the readiness of the EU’s technical system for tracing commodities such as coffee, cocoa, and palm oil. The Commissioner admitted that the digital platform designed to monitor compliance might not be fully operational in time for the regulation’s official start date in January 2026. As a result, Brussels is now considering a one-year postponement of the EUDR’s implementation.

This potential delay was met with relief from coffee-producing nations and exporters, many of whom have voiced apprehension over the costs and logistical burdens of compliance. The regulation, adopted in 2023, requires companies importing into the EU to prove that their products do not contribute to deforestation or forest degradation. For coffee, that means exporters must provide precise geolocation data for every farm and ensure traceability across the supply chain. While the regulation aims to promote sustainable trade, several producing countries, including Ethiopia, Uganda, and Honduras, have warned that smaller farmers could be excluded from the European market if compliance deadlines remain too strict.

Market participants see the proposed delay as a temporary reprieve. “It gives exporters and cooperatives valuable time to adjust and strengthen traceability systems,” the ICO noted. However, the organization also cautioned that postponement does not remove the long-term challenge of compliance. Producers who fail to invest in sustainable certification and farm-level data systems risk losing access to the world’s most regulated and high-value coffee market.

By the end of September, the combined effects of tariffs, monetary easing, and policy uncertainty continued to shape market sentiment. The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 324.62 US cents per pound, up 9.3% from August, marking the highest level in two years. Yet, behind the price surge lay diverging regional realities: while exporters in Vietnam and Colombia benefited from strong demand and competitive logistics, producers in Brazil and Central America faced rising export costs and political tension around trade access.

The report concluded that these intersecting economic and regulatory developments have pushed the coffee industry into a phase of structural adaptation. With monetary policy softening in the United States, trade negotiations cautiously reopening, and the EU potentially adjusting its sustainability timeline, the final quarter of 2025 is expected to test the industry’s resilience. Analysts agree that while prices may remain high in the short term, long-term stability will depend on how swiftly producers, traders, and regulators can align under a more predictable and sustainable framework.

As the ICO noted, the coffee market of late 2025 is no longer defined solely by supply and demand but by the policies, regulations, and economic instruments that govern it. The cup of coffee on the global stage has never been more entangled with diplomacy, finance, and environmental accountability.