Tag: Global Coffee Trade

USDA Report: Record World Coffee Production in 2026/27

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) – Coffee: World Markets and Trade
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 23, 2026This article covers important findings from the world coffee market report 2026.

USDA Report: Record World Coffee Production in 2026/27

  • World coffee production forecast at a record 189.7 million bags in 2026/27, up 10.8 million from the previous year.
  • Brazil leads the surge with a record 71.9 million bags, driven by a 9.5 million bag Arabica rebound.
  • Global consumption rises to a record 179.7 million bags, with the European Union and United States leading gains.
  • World bean exports forecast at a record 131.4 million bags, up 11.9 million from 2025/26.
  • Ending stocks rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags.
  • Coffee prices have fallen 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies become available.
  • Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Uganda all post production increases, while Indonesia declines.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service released its latest Coffee: World Markets and Trade report. Global coffee production for 2026/27 is forecast at a record 189.7 million bags. This represents an increase of 10.8 million bags from the previous year.

Record output in Brazil, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Vietnam drives this growth. These gains more than compensate for losses in India and Indonesia. World coffee bean exports are expected to reach a record 131.4 million bags. Global consumption is forecast to rise to a record 179.7 million bags.

World Production at Record High

World coffee production for 2026/27 is forecast 10.8 million bags higher than the previous year. Production is expected to reach a record 189.7 million bags. Brazil accounts for the largest share with a record 71.9 million bags. The rebound in Arabica production is particularly notable after five years of underperformance.

World Coffee Production 2026/27 (Million 60-kg Bags)
Category 2025/26 2026/27 Forecast Change
Total Production 178.8 189.7 +10.8
Arabica Production 94.4 105.9 +11.4
Robusta Production 84.4 83.8 -0.6

Brazil: Record Production and Arabica Rebound

Brazil’s combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast at a record 71.9 million bags in 2026/27. This represents an increase of 8.9 million bags from the previous year. Arabica output is expected to rebound 9.5 million bags to 47.5 million, ending a five-year period of underperformance due to adverse weather conditions.

Timely rainfall during flowering in September and October ensured favorable fruit development. Near-record yields were achieved in Minas Gerais, where over 70% of Arabica coffee is grown. Robusta production is forecast to retreat 600,000 bags to 24.4 million following last year’s record harvest. Cooler temperatures combined with elevated rainfall lowered yields in Espirito Santo, where approximately 70% of Robusta is grown.

Brazil accounts for nearly 40% of world production and exerts significant influence on global supplies and prices. Brazil’s role in Arabica markets is even more pronounced, typically supplying between 40% and 50% depending on the biennial crop production cycle.

Brazil Coffee Production Outlook 2026/27
Category 2025/26 2026/27 Forecast Change
Arabica Production 38.0 million bags 47.5 million bags +9.5 million
Robusta Production 25.0 million bags 24.4 million bags -0.6 million
Total Production 63.0 million bags 71.9 million bags +8.9 million
Bean Exports 34.0 million bags 45.0 million bags +11.0 million
Ending Stocks 3.9 million bags 4.4 million bags +0.5 million

Global Consumption and Trade

World coffee bean exports are forecast 11.9 million bags higher to a record 131.4 million bags. This is driven by higher output in major producing countries. Global consumption is expected to rise to a record 179.7 million bags. The largest gains are occurring in the European Union and the United States.

Ending stocks are expected to rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags. This follows a significant drawdown between 2020/21 and 2024/25, when global ending stocks fell 15.5 million bags. While stocks are recovering, they remain below the long-term average.

World Coffee Summary 2026/27 (Million 60-kg Bags)
Category 2025/26 2026/27 Forecast Change
World Production 178.8 189.7 +10.8
World Bean Exports 119.5 131.4 +11.9
World Consumption 173.5 179.7 +6.3
Ending Stocks 24.4 26.3 +1.9

Country-by-Country Production Highlights

Vietnam production is forecast to increase 800,000 bags to a record 32.5 million. Expanding area and higher yields drive this growth. Recent high prices allowed growers to increase expenditures on fertilizers. Bean exports are forecast up 300,000 bags to 25.4 million. Domestic consumption is expected to reach a record 5.0 million bags.

Colombia output is expected to rise 900,000 bags to 13.4 million. Adequate soil moisture from last year’s excessive rains supports this growth. Increased utilization of fertilizers and pesticides also contributes. Bean exports, mostly to the United States and European Union, are forecast up 500,000 bags to 12.2 million.

Ethiopia is forecast to increase output by more than 500,000 bags to a record 12.1 million. Higher area and yield drive this growth. Over the last four years, growth has been driven by replacement of over half of the cultivated area with higher-yielding varieties. Bean exports are forecast up nearly 200,000 bags to 7.1 million.

Central America and Mexico production is forecast to rise nearly 600,000 bags to 17.7 million. Rebounding output in Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Panama contribute to this growth. Honduras is expected to account for nearly all the region’s growth, rebounding 500,000 bags to 6.0 million.

Indonesia production is forecast to drop 1.0 million bags to 11.4 million. Robusta output is expected to decrease 1.0 million bags to 10.0 million due to lower yields. Excessive rainfall disrupted flowering and cherry formation in Southern Sumatra and Java. Reduced output is expected to cut bean exports by over 800,000 bags to 7.0 million.

Key Country Production 2026/27 (Million 60-kg Bags)
Country 2025/26 2026/27 Forecast Change
Brazil 63.0 71.9 +8.9
Vietnam 31.7 32.5 +0.8
Colombia 12.5 13.4 +0.9
Ethiopia 11.6 12.1 +0.5
Indonesia 12.4 11.4 -1.0
Honduras 5.5 6.0 +0.5
Uganda 7.1 7.2 +0.1

Price Impact of Rising Supplies

Coffee prices have dropped 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies became available. This is measured by the International Coffee Organization monthly composite price index. The improving supply situation reflects record production and rising ending stocks.

However, ending stocks remain below the long-term average. Weather developments in key producing regions, particularly Minas Gerais in Brazil, remain the primary indicator for world market conditions. The biennial production cycle in Brazil continues to shape global supply and price expectations.

Revisions to 2025/26 Estimates

World production is unchanged from the December 2025 estimate of 178.8 million bags. Vietnam is raised 900,000 bags to 31.7 million on higher yields. Peru is up nearly 600,000 bags to 4.8 million. Colombia is lowered 1.3 million bags to 12.5 million due to excessive rain and cloud cover. Guatemala is reduced nearly 400,000 bags to 3.2 million due to coffee cherry borer and coffee rust.

World bean exports are revised down 4.3 million bags to 119.5 million. Brazil is lowered 3.0 million bags to 34.0 million due to lower shipments to the EU and United States. Ethiopia is reduced over 800,000 bags to 6.9 million on higher-than-anticipated domestic consumption. Vietnam is up 500,000 bags to 25.1 million on higher output.

Key Takeaways for the Coffee Industry

Record global production is expected to boost supplies significantly. Brazil’s Arabica rebound after five years of underperformance is particularly notable. This could help replenish global inventories that were drawn down in previous years.

Ending stocks are forecast to rise for a second consecutive year. However, they remain below the long-term average. Weather developments in Minas Gerais remain the primary indicator for world market conditions. Coffee prices have fallen 25% in seven months, reflecting improved supply. Producers and traders should monitor Brazil’s production cycle closely, as it heavily influences global market conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the forecast for global coffee production in 2026/27?World production is forecast at a record 189.7 million bags, up 10.8 million from the previous year.

What is Brazil’s production forecast?Brazil is forecast at a record 71.9 million bags, driven by a 9.5 million bag Arabica rebound.

What is the global consumption forecast?Global consumption is expected to rise to a record 179.7 million bags, with the largest gains in the EU and US.

What are ending stocks expected to be?Ending stocks are expected to rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags.

How have coffee prices responded to increased supply?Coffee prices have dropped 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies became available.

Which countries are driving production growth?Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Uganda are all posting production increases, while Indonesia declines.

Author: Qahwa World (based on USDA FAS report)
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Coffee: World Markets and Trade
Publication Date: July 23, 2026

Strong Dollar Weighs on Coffee Prices

Posted on by Qahwa World
Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures closed lower on Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar pressured commodity markets. This is a clear example of how a Strong Dollar Weighs on Coffee Prices. July arabica coffee contracts (KCN26) fell 0.76%, while July robusta futures (RMN26) declined 0.63%.

Losses were limited by tightening certified coffee inventories. ICE arabica stocks dropped to a 2.5-month low of 471,831 bags, while robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,664 lots.

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to disrupt global coffee trade flows, increasing shipping, insurance, fuel, and fertilizer costs for importers and roasters.

Brazil’s weaker export performance also supported prices. Cecafe reported that Brazil’s March green coffee exports declined 10% year-on-year to 2.65 million bags, while the country’s Trade Ministry said total March coffee exports fell 31% to 151,000 metric tons.

Meanwhile, rising supplies from Vietnam weighed on robusta prices. Vietnam’s coffee exports during January–April 2026 increased 15.8% year-on-year to 810,000 metric tons, according to the National Statistics Office. The country’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to rise 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.

Expectations of a larger Brazilian crop also added bearish pressure. Recent forecasts from the Coffee Trading Academy, Marex Group, Sucafina, and StoneX all point to strong production in Brazil’s 2026/27 season, with estimates ranging from 71.4 million to 75.9 million bags.

StoneX also expects the global coffee surplus to expand to 10 million bags in 2026, compared with 1.8 million bags in 2025.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts global coffee production in 2025/26 will reach a record 178.848 million bags, driven by stronger robusta output, while global ending stocks are projected to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

Indonesia Eyes Further Growth in Coffee Exports to Russia

Posted on by Qahwa World

Moscow — Qahwa World

Indonesia may continue expanding its coffee exports to Russia following strong growth in 2025, although logistical and financial hurdles remain, according to an industry representative.

A supplier speaking at the “Coffee Tea Cacao & HoReCa Expo” in Moscow said that while Indonesia is unlikely to surpass Vietnam as Russia’s top coffee exporter, there is still room to increase overall shipment volumes.

Trade data previously showed that Indonesia strengthened its position among Russia’s leading coffee suppliers during the first nine months of 2025, with export values rising significantly compared to the previous year. Vietnam, however, maintained its lead by a wide margin.

Industry participants point to transportation difficulties and payment processing issues as the main constraints affecting further expansion. Despite these challenges, there is optimism that improving bilateral relations could help ease some of these barriers.

Russia is not yet among Indonesia’s top coffee export destinations, but demand in the market has been steadily increasing in recent years, making it more attractive for exporters.

Recent high-level talks between officials from both countries have also included discussions on facilitating financial transactions, which could support future trade growth.

Brazil Export Decline Supports Coffee Prices

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices moved higher midweek, with both arabica and robusta futures posting gains. Robusta led the advance, reaching its strongest level in roughly one and a half weeks, supported by tightening near-term supplies.

A key factor behind the upward movement is reduced export activity from Brazil. Recent figures indicate that shipments of green coffee declined in March compared to the same month last year. Broader trade data also shows a sharp drop in overall coffee exports, reinforcing concerns about limited supply from the world’s leading producer.

In the robusta segment, falling inventories have added to the bullish sentiment. Exchange-monitored stockpiles have dropped to their lowest levels in more than a year, highlighting ongoing supply tightness in the physical market.

Weather conditions are also contributing to price support. Brazil’s main arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, has received significantly less rainfall than usual in recent weeks. Reduced precipitation during key crop development stages may affect yields, adding uncertainty to future supply.

However, the broader outlook remains complex. Earlier projections of a large upcoming Brazilian crop continue to weigh on market sentiment. Several forecasts point to record production in the 2026/27 season, with global supply potentially expanding into a sizeable surplus.

At the same time, rising certified inventories for arabica have recently pressured prices, reflecting improved availability in some segments of the market.

Global logistics challenges are adding another layer of influence. Disruptions to major shipping routes have increased freight, insurance, and fuel costs, raising expenses for importers and roasters and contributing to overall market volatility.

Meanwhile, Vietnam continues to strengthen its position in the robusta sector. Strong export performance and expectations of increased production could help offset supply constraints from Brazil.

Earlier in the year, coffee prices declined sharply amid expectations of abundant global output. Forecasts suggest that worldwide production could reach record levels in the coming seasons, driven largely by Brazil and Vietnam.

Even so, global stock levels are expected to edge lower, with ending inventories projected to decline compared to the previous season. This balance between strong production and tightening stocks underscores the mixed and evolving outlook for the global coffee market.

 

 

Russia’s Green Coffee Market Records Historic Growth in 2026

Posted on by Qahwa World

Mocow-QahwaWorld

Russia’s green coffee market posted significant growth in 2026, supported by rising global prices and sustained domestic demand, according to a recent analysis by ROIF Expert. The expansion reflects not only higher market value but also increased import volumes and consumption levels, reinforcing Russia’s position as a key destination for global coffee exporters.

Market Value Jumps by 92 Billion Rubles

The market value of green coffee increased by approximately 92 billion rubles between its lowest and highest recent levels, marking one of the strongest gains in the sector. The growth is largely attributed to higher global coffee prices, influenced by weather-related challenges in major producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam.

While import volumes continued to rise, value growth outpaced physical expansion, reflecting sustained price pressure across global supply chains.

Imports Remain the Core Driver

Russia relies almost entirely on imports to meet its green coffee demand. Between 2025 and 2026, total import volumes reached around 286,000 tons.

  • Import value increased by 45.5% in the first nine months of 2025, reaching $924.7 million
  • Vietnam recorded a 1.5x increase in exports
  • Brazil nearly doubled its export volumes
  • Indonesia strengthened its position among top suppliers with 1.6x growth

Despite ongoing sanctions, supply flows remained stable. The primary challenge involved payment restrictions, prompting companies to adapt through alternative channels, including intermediary countries such as Turkey, China, and the UAE, as well as increased direct shipping routes.

Consumption Reaches Record Levels

Consumption indicators show continued growth, with per capita coffee consumption reaching its highest recorded levels. Approximately 70% of the population consumes coffee daily, while a majority consider it an essential part of their routine.

Home consumption is expected to grow by 15% by the end of 2026, alongside increasing demand for specialty coffee and whole beans.

Shifts in Supply Chains

Supply chains are gradually shifting toward Asian producers, particularly Vietnam and Indonesia, while overall trade flows remain relatively stable. At the same time, the market continues to face pricing pressures and logistical risks linked to geopolitical factors.

Outlook Through 2033

The baseline scenario outlined in the report suggests steady growth over the coming years, supported by consistent demand and expanding import activity.

  • Projected annual growth between 3% and 5.5%
  • Moderate increase in global price levels
  • Continued rise in per capita consumption
  • Further diversification of import sources

The market is expected to maintain positive momentum, demonstrating resilience in the face of external pressures.

Implications for Industry Stakeholders

The Russian market offers strong opportunities for global exporters, given its full dependence on imports. Domestic players are increasingly focused on higher-quality offerings and cost management, while consumers benefit from a broader range of products.

From an investment perspective, the sector shows the ability to convert price pressures into growth drivers, enhancing its medium-term appeal.

Conclusion

Russia’s green coffee market in 2026 reflects a mature and resilient sector. The sharp increase in market value and sustained demand indicate a continued upward trajectory, with growth expected to extend through the end of the decade.

 

Vietnam Sets the Stage for a Record-Breaking Coffee Export Year

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Vietnam has entered 2026 with remarkable momentum, signaling a potential record year for coffee exports. Early data from Vietnam Customs points to a rapid acceleration in shipments of green coffee, processed products, and various bean varieties, surpassing activity from the same period last year. Export values have also climbed sharply, solidifying coffee as one of Vietnam’s top agricultural earners and highlighting the country’s growing influence in the global coffee market.

The surge is driven not only by higher volumes but also by expanding international demand. Key markets, including Germany, Spain, Italy, Algeria, and Japan, have reported stronger imports in the early weeks of the year. Vietnam’s coffee is increasingly recognized across Europe, North Africa, and Asia as an essential supplier, with both import value and volume showing steady growth.

Within Vietnam’s export portfolio, robusta remains the backbone of the trade, generating substantial earnings. Arabica, though a smaller portion of production, has seen notable gains due to rising global interest in specialty origins and Vietnam’s strategic focus on diversifying its offerings. Meanwhile, processed coffee products are showing strong performance, reflecting a shift toward value-added exports. Industry experts view this as evidence that Vietnam is moving beyond commodity-based trade toward a more vertically integrated model capable of competing in premium markets.

You mat read this: Vietnam Suspends Decree 46, Easing Coffee Trade

The strong start to 2026 builds on an already exceptional 2025, when Vietnam achieved its highest-ever coffee export volumes and revenues. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association predicts that the current harvest could exceed these records, aided by improved growing conditions, increased investment in farm inputs, and higher market prices—all contributing to stronger yields and production potential.

International observers echo this optimism. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects substantial growth in Vietnam’s coffee production, citing farmers’ responsiveness to global price increases and enhanced crop management practices. USDA forecasts also point to rising exports across multiple categories, including roasted and soluble coffee, with Asian markets expected to drive significant demand.

According to the USDA’s December revision, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee exports are expected to reach 27.3 million bags GBE, up 8% from the previous year. Early customs data indicate actual shipments of green beans, roasted, and soluble coffee may already be higher, supported by increased sales to international tourists.

You may like: Vietnam’s Coffee Crisis Could Disrupt Global Supply Chains

Global trends, however, are shaping a more competitive landscape. Analysts warn that supply may increase across traditional coffee-producing regions, potentially pressuring prices. Vietnam’s efficiency, productivity, and diversified product offerings, along with investments in quality control and traceability, position its coffee sector to navigate these shifts with resilience.

Taken together, the early 2026 developments suggest Vietnam is entering a defining phase in its coffee-export story. Strong demand, recognition in global markets, expansion into processed coffee, and robust domestic and international support all point to a landmark year ahead. If these trends continue, Vietnam is poised to reinforce its position as a global coffee powerhouse while setting new benchmarks for high-volume, value-added exports.

Sharp Rise in Coffee Prices in Russia

Posted on by Qahwa World

Moscow – Qahwa World

A cup of coffee in Russia is no longer just a simple daily habit, it has become a growing expense that consumers are clearly beginning to feel. Within just one year, the equation has changed: the same amount of money that once covered five cups of coffee now barely pays for four.

Data indicates a noticeable increase in coffee prices across all categories. Ground coffee has risen by around 20%, while coffee beans have increased by approximately 16%. Instant coffee has also gone up, with the price of a small jar climbing from about 350 to 400 rubles.

This surge is not driven by local factors alone, but reflects broader global shifts. Unstable weather conditions in major producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam have reduced output, as droughts and frost have negatively impacted harvests.

At the same time, supply chains are under pressure due to higher transportation costs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, directly affecting the cost of coffee imports. In Russia, these pressures are compounded by the weakening of the local currency, making imports even more expensive.

You may read: 70% of Russians drink coffee daily

Additionally, businesses are facing rising operational costs, including taxes, energy prices, rent, and transportation. All of these factors ultimately feed into the final price paid by consumers.

Meanwhile, global demand for coffee continues to grow. [conclusion] Market estimates suggest that coffee consumption could increase by about one-third over the current decade, adding further pressure on supply and keeping prices elevated.

Given these conditions, analysts do not expect a significant decline in prices in the near term. Instead, prices are likely to continue rising at a moderate pace, potentially increasing by an additional 10–20% depending on the type and quality of coffee.

In the end, coffee is no longer just a stable, everyday commodity. it has become a reflection of broader changes in the global economy, from climate challenges to shifting supply chains and trade dynamics.

Russia’s Imports of Brazilian Coffee Fall to Six-Month Low

Posted on by Qahwa World

Moscow – Qahwa World

Russia significantly reduced its imports of Brazilian coffee in February 2026, reaching the lowest level recorded since September 2025, according to Brazilian customs data cited by RIA Novosti.

Shipments to Russia totaled about 2.8 thousand tons, valued at $20.3 million. This represents a 1.8-fold decline compared with January 2026 and a 2.6-fold drop compared with February 2025. As a result, Russia’s position among the largest importers of Brazilian coffee fell from seventh to fourteenth place.

The decline occurred during a broader slowdown in Brazil’s coffee exports. In February, total Brazilian shipments reached 142.5 thousand tons, worth $1.03 billion, marking a 0.7% decrease from January and a 17% decline year-on-year.

You may like: Russia Updates Instant Coffee Standards for the First Time in 32 Years

The reduction in exports to Russia, however, was more pronounced and appears linked to several domestic economic developments. Economic pressures in Russia have led to an increased pace of restaurant and café closures, reported to be the fastest since 2021 according to data from Sberbank. The shift has reduced demand for imported coffee as more consumers move toward lower-cost food options.

Global coffee prices may also be influencing purchasing decisions. During 2025, arabica prices rose by roughly 25%, encouraging some buyers to delay purchases while waiting for potential price declines. Expectations of a strong Brazilian harvest for the 2026/2027 crop year, projected at 66.2 million bags, have already pushed arabica futures down to about $2.80 per pound in early March 2026.

At the same time, Russia’s instant coffee sector has expanded. The country increased exports of instant coffee by 28% in 2025, reaching $366 million, which may partly reduce reliance on imported green coffee.

Read Also: Russian Instant Coffee Exports Rise 28% to $366 Million

Trade policy changes may also influence future imports. Russia removed a 40% import duty on Brazilian coffee at the end of 2025, a move that could support a recovery in shipments in the coming months. Meanwhile, the Russian standards agency Rosstandart has approved an updated national standard for instant coffee that will take effect in November 2026, expanding the classification to include granulated and freeze-dried coffee, replacing a standard dating back to 1994.

Despite the drop in Russian purchases, several countries remained the largest importers of Brazilian coffee in February, including Germany, Italy, the United States, Belgium, and Japan, with import volumes ranging between 8.3 thousand and 23.4 thousand tons.

The sharp decline in Russia’s imports highlights a possible shift in the country’s coffee market, influenced by economic conditions, changing consumption patterns, and developments in global coffee supply.

Vietnam’s Coffee Crisis Could Disrupt Global Supply Chains

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

A report published by BeverageDaily warns that challenges facing coffee production in Vietnam could trigger new volatility in global coffee markets, potentially affecting supply chains and prices in the coming years.

Although global coffee prices have recently shown signs of easing, the difficulties confronting Vietnamese coffee farmers may reverse that trend if production declines continue.

  • Vietnam’s Key Role in the Global Coffee Market

Vietnam is the world’s second-largest coffee producer after Brazil and the leading global producer of Robusta coffee. This variety accounts for more than forty percent of global production and plays a central role in commercial coffee blends widely used by major manufacturers such as Nestlé.

You may like: Exclusive: Tobbi Vu on Launching Dubai’s First Vietnamese Specialty Coffee

According to figures cited in the report, Vietnam exports more than 1.5 million metric tons of coffee annually. In 2025, the country’s coffee exports reached approximately 8.92 billion dollars, representing a 58.8 percent increase compared with 2024, largely driven by high Robusta prices.

  • Climate Pressures and Rising Land Costs

Coffee production in Vietnam’s Central Highlands has been increasingly affected by extreme weather conditions. Severe floods and prolonged rainfall last year reduced yields and created concerns among traders, given Vietnam’s central role in global Robusta supply.

At the same time, rising land prices in coffee-growing regions are adding further pressure. Infrastructure development and expanding investment in agriculture have pushed land values higher, encouraging some farmers to sell their farms rather than continue production under tightening profit margins.

Industry observers say coffee farmers today must simultaneously manage climate risks, financial pressures and rising production costs, making the sustainability of farming operations more difficult.

  • Tax Policy Changes

The report also highlights regulatory challenges faced by the Vietnamese coffee sector during 2025 after the introduction of a five-percent value-added tax on certain semi-processed agricultural products, including coffee beans.

Exporters argued that the measure complicated trade procedures and tied up cash flow because exported green coffee is typically zero-rated. Vietnamese authorities later amended the legislation, and the previous tax treatment was restored starting in early 2026.

  • Smaller Roasters May Feel the Impact First

According to the report, disruptions in Vietnam’s coffee sector may initially affect smaller and medium-sized roasters, particularly in Europe, Asia and Australia, which rely heavily on stable supplies of affordable green coffee.

Yoc also read: How Vietnam Turned Coffee Into a Way of Life?

Large multinational companies generally have greater flexibility through diversified sourcing and long-term contracts. Nevertheless, price increases may eventually reach consumers, often with a delay ranging from twelve to twenty-four months.

  • A Possible Shift Toward Higher Value Production

With climate and land constraints limiting expansion in production volume, Vietnam’s coffee industry may increasingly focus on quality improvement and value-added activities.

Some producers may expand into roasting and semi-processed coffee products rather than exporting raw beans alone, a development that could diversify global supply chains over time.

Read also: Brazil Rain and Vietnam Surplus Sink Coffee Futures

The report also notes growing international interest in high-quality Robusta coffees, sometimes referred to as fine Robusta, as climate pressures make Arabica production more vulnerable in certain regions.

  • Investments to Strengthen the Supply Chain

Major coffee companies, including Nestlé, continue to invest in Vietnam’s coffee sector in an effort to strengthen supply chains and promote sustainable farming practices.

Programs supporting drought-resistant coffee seedlings, farm renovation and regenerative agriculture aim to improve productivity and resilience among thousands of farmers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands.

Despite these initiatives, the report suggests that the global coffee industry may still face recurring supply pressures if climate challenges and production costs continue to rise in key producing countries.

Russian Instant Coffee Exports Rise 28% to $366 Million

Posted on by Qahwa World

Moscow – QAHWA WORLD

Russia recorded solid growth in its instant coffee exports in 2025, with total export value rising 28% year-on-year to exceed $366 million.

According to the Federal Center for Agricultural Export Development, Agroexport, citing expert estimates, the shipments included coffee extracts, essences, concentrates, and finished products based on them.

In volume terms, exports surpassed 51,000 tons during the year. No comparative data on year-on-year volume growth was disclosed.

Kazakhstan remained the leading destination market, with export revenues exceeding $131 million, compared with approximately $58 million in 2024, representing more than a twofold increase.

Belarus ranked next, importing nearly $95 million worth of products. Exports to Uzbekistan reached about $33 million, while Georgia imported more than $24 million. Shipments to Israel totaled close to $12 million.

In 2025, exports of this product category to Oman were also resumed, with shipments valued at over $120,000 following a previous توقف.

The figures highlight the continued concentration of Russian instant coffee exports in CIS markets, alongside efforts to re-expand into additional destinations amid steady regional demand for instant coffee products.

Invisible Gravity in Coffee

Posted on by Qahwa World

By Dr. Steffen Schwarz

If you stand at the edge of a coffee farm at dawn, the industry looks almost impossibly fragmented. It is a mosaic of small plots and a patchwork of varieties where thousands of decisions are made by hand: when to prune, when to fertilize, and when to pick. Multiply that landscape by the number of farms worldwide, and the picture becomes geological in scale.

Yet, the moment the coffee cherry leaves the farm gate, a different geography takes over—not of soil and altitude, but of finance, logistics, risk, and ownership. While often described as “complex,” the sector hides a simpler truth: most of the value chain is governed by a small number of capital-intensive control points. Whoever owns these points sets the tempo for the entire industry.

The Five-Part Series: An Overview

This article serves as the “overview lens” for a five-part series designed for decision-makers. Over the coming weeks, we will dive deep into:

  1. Green Coffee: The industrialization of uncertainty.

  2. Roasted Coffee & Brand Ownership: The architecture of portfolios.

  3. Coffee Technology & Manufacturing: The power of installed bases.

  4. Coffee Service: The economics of high-frequency traffic.

To map this landscape, I use a “triangulation” approach: public filings, official acquisition reports, and corporate self-descriptions. While private groups remain opaque, that very opacity allows capital to concentrate through information arbitrage.

YOU MAY LIKE THIS: Steffen Schwarz: A Silent Shift Towards Canephora is Redefining Europe’s Coffee Preferences

1. Green Coffee: Managing the Industrial Flow

Coffee is biologically diverse but industrially standardized. To turn variable seeds into repeatable contract specifications, the system requires massive infrastructure.

Supply is heavily concentrated at the source: a handful of countries represent the bulk of global supply. At the demand end, the EU and the US act as regulatory gatekeepers; their decisions effectively become global requirements.

The Power of Working Capital Coffee moves through time before it moves through taste. Financing harvests and managing long ocean lead times requires immense balance sheets. Major merchant houses do not just trade; they process, insure, and provide credit.

  • ECOM Agroindustrial: Integrated from procurement to primary processing.

  • Sucafina: A “farm to roaster” footprint across multiple continents.

  • COFCO International: Connecting China’s state-linked system to global supply, signaling coffee’s role in geopolitics.

  • Volcafe (Hartree Partners): The 2025 acquisition of Volcafe by Hartree Partners signals that coffee is increasingly attractive to energy and commodity-scale capital.

2. Roasted Coffee: The Illusion of Plurality

In the roasting segment, concentration is often masked by brand diversity. A single group may own dozens of brands, appearing as “competitors” on a shelf while negotiating as a single entity.

  • The Nestlé-Starbucks Alliance: The Global Coffee Alliance allows Nestlé to leverage Starbucks’ brand power with its own industrial scale.

  • The “Coffee Champion” Logic: In August 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper announced the acquisition of JDE Peet’s. This move consolidates single-serve systems and global brand portfolios, reducing the number of global negotiating counterparts.

3. Technology: The Lever of Structural Power

Machinery is where chemistry meets economics. Equipment determines labor deployment, consistency, and data harvesting.

Platform Strategy Industrial holdings are building “professional coffee hubs.”

  • De’Longhi Group: By combining Eversys (super-automatic) and La Marzocco (traditional heritage), they control both high-volume convenience and premium café credibility.

  • Ali Group & Artemis Holding: Brands like Rancilio and Franke Coffee Systems are now part of massive foodservice portfolios that prioritize service ecosystems and connectivity over mere “engineering.”

4. Coffee Service: Real Estate and Routine

On the street, coffee looks diverse. On the balance sheet, it is a game of infrastructure.

  • Starbucks: With over 40,000 stores globally as of late 2024, it is less a retailer and more a global infrastructure.

  • Coca-Cola (Costa Coffee): Coffee is used as a strategic complement to a broader beverage empire, appearing in offices, petrol stations, and micro-markets.

  • Private Equity: Roark Capital (Dunkin’) and JAB (Panera/Pret) treat coffee as a high-frequency traffic driver within franchised systems.

Conclusion: Becoming Competent in Concentration

The coffee industry remains plural at the creative frontier—independent roasters still set sensory trends. However, this “long tail” lives within an environment shaped by capital-heavy platforms.

Strategy for the modern manager is not about resisting this gravity, but understanding it. Only by separating the physics of these four interlocking systems—finance, branding, engineering, and operations—can one make intelligent decisions about the future.

Peru Hits Record Coffee Sales of Over $1.5 Billion in 2025

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Peru’s coffee industry reached an unprecedented historical milestone in 2025, with the latest official data from the Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (MIDAGRI) reporting record-breaking sales of $1.57 billion between January and November. This figure represents a staggering 54.1% year-on-year growth compared to the same period in the previous year, firmly positioning the coffee sector as one of the most vital pillars of the Peruvian national economy over the last decade.

This exceptional success is the result of Peru’s long-term strategic commitment to solidifying its status as the world’s leading producer and exporter of organic coffee. This commitment has perfectly aligned with a major shift in global consumer behaviour, where buyers are increasingly prioritising sustainable, eco-certified, and ethically sourced crops. Furthermore, favourable international prices for high-value speciality coffee lots played a decisive role in maximising financial returns. Peruvian exporters have successfully navigated and met the rigorous quality standards and strict traceability requirements demanded by major strategic markets, most notably the United States and the European Union.

Field reports indicate that this growth was not accidental but the product of intensive investment in improving logistical supply chains and advancing post-harvest processing technologies within the rugged Andean highlands. This prosperity has had a direct and tangible impact on the national income, significantly enhancing the livelihoods of more than 223,000 farming families across the Andes and the Amazon rainforest. In these regions, coffee cultivation serves as the primary socioeconomic lifeline and a fundamental social pillar for rural communities. Building on these historic results, the Peruvian government now aims to leverage this momentum to further promote regional brands in international forums and ensure the long-term sustainability of these record-breaking figures in future seasons.