Category: Studies

Study Finds Ants May Help Suppress Coffee Berry Borer

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: University of Michigan / Ecology journal
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 2, 2026

Study Finds Ants May Help Suppress Coffee Berry Borer

  • Small ants evict coffee berry borers from coffee fruits and use their cavities for reproduction.
  • This reproductive benefit may support more diverse ant communities on coffee plants.
  • Large ants eat the borers, while small ants root them out of their homes in coffee berries.
  • The discovery was made by Jonathan Morris during graduate research in Chiapas, Mexico.
  • The study highlights the importance of observational science in ecological discovery.
  • Findings published in The Scientific Naturalist section of the journal Ecology.
  • Research conducted at a farm station established by University of Michigan ecologists.

Ants are known allies in the fight against coffee berry borers. These pests cause significant damage to coffee crops worldwide. However, a new discovery reveals a previously unknown dimension of this natural pest control.

Jonathan Morris, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, made the discovery while studying coffee plants in Chiapas, Mexico. He observed that small ants evict borers from coffee fruits and then use the borer-made cavities to rear their own young.

A New Dimension of Pest Control

Ecologists have long known that large ants eat coffee berry borers. They also know that these ants stymie the pests’ efforts to colonize coffee plants. Small ants can root the borers out of their homes in the coffee fruits. However, what happens next was unknown until now.

Morris discovered that small ant species then use the habitats in the fruits for their own reproduction. This is the first documented evidence of ants taking advantage of the niche construction created by the berry borer.

“In terms of pest control, this is primarily a good thing because it’s benefiting the ants in terms of their populations and fitness. The ants gain this reproductive benefit that’s originally created by the coffee pest. And this might actually help to maintain more diverse ant communities directly on the coffee plants.”

— Jonathan R. Morris, Postdoctoral Researcher, UNAM

From Field Samples to Evidence

Morris started this project in 2016. At the time, he was working at a research station in Chiapas, Mexico. The station was established by professors Ivette Perfecto and John Vandermeer from the University of Michigan. Perfecto has been studying agricultural ecosystems on coffee farms in Central America for 25 years.

While conducting research for a different project, Morris collected samples of coffee berries. These berries had been infiltrated by borers and then evicted by ants. He kept the ants in vials and thought about studying them later. Years later, he realized that this behavior had never been documented before.

“I had all these ants in vials that I had found nesting in coffee fruits and told myself, ‘Maybe I’ll do something with this at some point,'” Morris said. “Then, years later, I got to thinking about it and, as far as I know, this is the first time anyone’s documented or reported the ants taking advantage of the niche construction by the berry borer and using it to reproduce themselves.”

Study Overview
Element Details
Lead Researcher Jonathan R. Morris (UNAM, formerly U-M)
Study Location Chiapas, Mexico
Research Started 2016
Photographic Evidence 2025
Publication Ecology journal (The Scientific Naturalist section)
Key Finding Small ants use borer-made cavities for reproduction
Broader Impact May support diverse ant communities on coffee plants

Observation Still Drives Discovery

The study has implications beyond ecology and pest control. It also underscores the importance of being in nature and observing what it is doing. This is especially relevant in the age of data science and artificial intelligence.

Morris noted that funders currently emphasize AI and big data. However, before these tools existed, scientists made discoveries by going out into nature and observing. He cited Charles Darwin and Alexander von Humboldt as examples of this tradition.

“But if it wasn’t for having funding for basic science and doing these types of observations, I wouldn’t be sitting here talking about them,” Morris said.

Implications for Coffee Farming

The discovery has significant implications for coffee farming. Coffee berry borers are among the most destructive pests affecting coffee crops. They cause millions of dollars in damage annually.

Ants are already valued as natural allies in pest control. This new evidence suggests their role may be even more important than previously understood. Encouraging diverse ant communities on coffee farms could enhance natural pest suppression and reduce reliance on chemical pesticides.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the study discover about ants and coffee berry borers?Small ants evict coffee berry borers from coffee fruits and then use the borer-made cavities to rear their own young.

Why is this discovery important?It shows that ants gain a reproductive benefit from the pests, which may support more diverse and stable ant communities on coffee plants.

Where was the research conducted?The research was conducted in Chiapas, Mexico, at a research station established by University of Michigan ecologists.

Who led the study?Jonathan R. Morris, now a postdoctoral researcher at UNAM, led the study while he was a graduate student at the University of Michigan.

How does this help coffee farmers?It highlights the importance of maintaining diverse ant communities on coffee farms to enhance natural pest control and reduce pesticide use.

Where were the findings published?The findings were published in The Scientific Naturalist section of the journal Ecology.

Author: Editorial Team (based on University of Michigan research)
Source: Qahwa World
Publication Date: August 2, 2026

Optimal Coffee Amount by Age: What Large Scientific Studies Say

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: UK Biobank, Nurses’ Health Study, American Heart Association
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 1, 2026This article explores coffee consumption by age based on major health studies.

Optimal Coffee Amount by Age: What Large Scientific Studies Say

  • Large observational studies link moderate coffee consumption to lower risk of chronic diseases.
  • These findings are associations, not proof of causation, and vary by age, health, and genetics.
  • After 30: 3-5 cups daily associated with lower risk of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer.
  • After 40: 3 small cups daily linked to “healthy aging” for midlife women.
  • After 50: 3-5 cups (400 mg caffeine) safe for most healthy adults, may reduce heart failure risk.
  • After 60: Coffee linked to lower risk of physical frailty and cellular renewal processes.
  • Individual response varies based on genetics, health status, and additives (sugar and cream).

Coffee is no longer just a morning wake-up drink. Over the past two decades, large observational studies have gathered consistent evidence that moderate consumption may be linked to lower risk of several chronic diseases.

These potential benefits include liver disease, dementia, and certain aspects of healthy aging. However, these remain associations, not proof of causation. Benefits and risks vary significantly by age, health status, genetics, and individual caffeine sensitivity.

Practical Summary: Optimal Amount by Age Group
Age Group Optimal Amount (cups/day) Key Potential Benefits Main Sources
After 30 2-5 Liver protection (cirrhosis, cancer) UK Biobank (355k participants)
After 40 2-3 (women) Healthy aging Nurses’ Health Study (47.5k)
After 50 3-5 Heart health (heart failure, stroke) American Heart Association
After 60 2-4 Reduced frailty, cellular renewal Observational studies on elderly

After 30: Potential Liver and Brain Protection

Long-term risk factors begin to form during this stage. A massive recent study from UK Biobank involving about 355,000 participants found coffee consumption linked to lower risk of liver cirrhosis, liver cancer, and liver-related deaths.

Benefits appeared starting from one to two cups daily. They increased with quantity and were strongest at 3-5 cups or more. Interestingly, the positive effect was also observed with decaffeinated coffee. This suggests that other compounds (like polyphenols) play an important role alongside caffeine.

For the brain, multiple studies link 2-3 cups daily to lower risk of dementia or cognitive decline in later life. Proposed mechanisms include anti-inflammatory effects, improved insulin sensitivity, and reduced accumulation of harmful proteins.

After 40: Potential Benefits for Midlife Women

Perimenopause involves significant hormonal changes affecting physical and cognitive health. The Harvard Nurses’ Health Study, which followed about 47,500 women for over three decades, found that women consuming about three small cups of caffeinated coffee in midlife were more likely to reach age 70 with “healthy aging.”

This includes freedom from major chronic diseases, preserved physical function, mental health, and absence of cognitive impairment. Decaffeinated coffee and tea did not show the same association as strongly. At this stage, some women may become more sensitive to caffeine. If coffee causes anxiety, palpitations, or sleep disruption, reducing the amount is advisable.

After 50: Heart Health and Safety of Moderate Consumption

Old beliefs linking coffee to inevitable heart damage are no longer supported by modern evidence. Recent reviews and meta-analyses, including data from the American Heart Association, indicate that most healthy adults can safely consume up to 3-5 cups (or about 400 mg caffeine) daily.

This level is often linked to lower risk of certain cardiovascular diseases like heart failure and stroke in observational studies. However, the optimal amount remains highly individual. It depends on sleep quality, blood pressure, and personal physician recommendations.

After 60: Supporting Muscle Function and Reducing Frailty Risk

With advancing age, the risk of losing muscle mass and physical frailty increases. Recent observational studies on elderly individuals link higher coffee consumption to lower likelihood of frailty, including weight loss, muscle weakness, exhaustion, slow walking speed, and low physical activity.

Mechanistically, animal studies show that coffee stimulates autophagy—a natural cellular renewal process that removes damaged components—in muscles, liver, and heart. This may contribute to preserving muscle tissue, though human evidence remains indirect.

What Makes Coffee Beneficial? How Does Response Vary?

Potential benefits come from a combination of caffeine and its effects on the nervous system and metabolism, antioxidants and polyphenols (such as chlorogenic acid), and other compounds affecting inflammation, insulin, and cellular renewal processes.

However, individual response varies greatly. Genetics (such as variations in the CYP1A2 enzyme) determine caffeine metabolism rate. Health status, additives (sugar and cream often reduce benefits), and preparation method also affect health impacts.

Practical Conclusion: No Universal Optimal Dose

There is no single “universal optimal dose” for everyone at every age. Current evidence suggests that moderate consumption (generally 2-4 cups daily for most healthy individuals) is linked to several potential benefits, especially for liver, brain, and healthy aging.

However, keep in mind that these are associations, not proof of causation. Those with anxiety disorders, insomnia, certain heart conditions, pregnant women, or those taking specific medications may need to limit or avoid coffee. It is always best to consider personal tolerance and consult a doctor if you have any chronic condition.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many cups of coffee are suitable for those over 30?The UK Biobank study suggests 3-5 cups daily are linked to lower liver cirrhosis and liver cancer risk, with benefits starting from two cups daily.

Is coffee beneficial for midlife women?Yes. The Nurses’ Health Study found that 3 small cups daily of caffeinated coffee were linked to greater odds of healthy aging after age 70.

Does coffee harm the heart?Modern evidence, including the American Heart Association, indicates that 3-5 cups daily (400 mg caffeine) are safe for most healthy adults and may reduce heart failure and stroke risk.

What are the benefits of coffee for seniors?Coffee is linked to lower risk of physical frailty (muscle loss and exhaustion) through stimulating cellular renewal processes (autophagy).

Is decaffeinated coffee also beneficial?Yes. In the liver study, the positive effect was also observed with decaffeinated coffee, suggesting a role for other compounds like polyphenols.

Is there an ideal dose that fits everyone?No. Individual response varies based on genetics, health status, and personal tolerance. It’s best to consult a doctor for chronic conditions.

Author: Qahwa World (based on modern scientific evidence)
Source: UK Biobank, Nurses’ Health Study, American Heart Association, and multiple scientific sources
Publication Date: August 1, 2026

Spent Coffee Grounds Converted Into Raw Material for Biofuels

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Universitat Rovira i Virgili / Biomass and Bioenergy journal
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 27, 2026

Spent Coffee Grounds Converted Into Raw Material for Biofuels

  • Researchers developed an efficient method to extract oil from spent coffee grounds for biodiesel production.
  • Optimal conditions: 45°C for 60 minutes with 35 ml hexane per gram of dry residue.
  • The process recovers approximately 90% of available oils from coffee grounds.
  • The extracted oil has very low impurity content of 0.3% compared to 3.9% in traditional methods.
  • The remaining lignocellulosic material can be used for bioethanol, lactic acid, and sustainable aviation fuel.
  • Global coffee production generates approximately 10 million tonnes of waste annually.
  • The process supports circular economy and renewable fuel development for hard-to-electrify sectors.

Spent coffee grounds can have a second life. They are typically thrown away after brewing. However, researchers have found a way to extract oil from them efficiently. This oil can serve as a raw material for producing biodiesel.

A study by the Universitat Rovira i Virgili has evaluated how to extract oil from coffee grounds. The process preserves the rest of the plant material. This allows it to be utilized in other processes as well.

The Research Study

The research was published in Biomass and Bioenergy journal. It focuses on spent coffee grounds as an abundant waste product. Global coffee bean production stands at around 10 million tonnes per year. Only a small proportion ends up in the brewed coffee. The remainder becomes solid waste in the form of coffee grounds.

Coffee grounds contain approximately 15% lipids. These fats can serve as a basis for producing biodiesel. The research team studied how three key factors influence oil extraction: temperature, processing time, and solvent-to-coffee-grounds ratio. They used n-hexane as the solvent and applied an experimental design to analyze the combined effects.

Optimal Conditions for Oil Extraction from Coffee Grounds
Parameter Optimal Value
Temperature 45°C
Processing Time 60 minutes
Solvent-to-Coffee Ratio 35 ml hexane per gram of dry residue
Oil Recovery Approximately 90% of available oils
Oil Impurity Content 0.3%

Key Findings

The research team, comprising Jorge F. Romero, Alberto Tampieri, Daniel Montané, Magdalena Constantí, and Francesc Medina, found optimal conditions at 45°C for 60 minutes. The ratio of 35 millilitres of hexane per gram of dry residue proved most effective. With these parameters, the process recovers approximately 90% of the oil that can be obtained with Soxhlet extraction.

Soxhlet is a laboratory technique widely used as a reference. It offers high yields but requires more time and energy. It is not as suitable for industrial applications. The optimized process yields oil with very low impurity content of 0.3%. In contrast, Soxhlet yields oil with 3.9% impurities. The fatty acid profile remained stable under different test conditions. It was dominated by linoleic and palmitic acids. These components indicate the oil’s potential for biodiesel production.

Beyond Oil: Preserving the Lignocellulosic Matrix

“In our study, we also demonstrate that extracting the oil does not mean that the rest of the material cannot be used for something else,” pointed out Francesc Medina. One of the research objectives was to preserve the lignocellulosic matrix. This matrix is made up of components such as cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin.

These ingredients can be used to obtain other products. These include bioethanol, lactic acid, polyhydroxyalkanoates, precursors for sustainable aviation fuels, and phenolic compounds. The extraction process not only recovers oils but also acts as a pretreatment. The fats in the residue can prevent solvents or catalysts from accessing the rest of the biomass. Removing this barrier leaves the fat-free residue in a better state for subsequent use.

Comparison with Other Methods

The research team compared their method with ultrasound- and microwave-assisted extraction. These alternatives can accelerate the initial extraction. However, they do not offer a sufficient advantage in terms of oil quality, overall efficiency, energy demand, and scalability. The batch process with n-hexane under moderate conditions appears to be a better, more balanced option. It is more suitable for integration into a biorefining strategy.

Circular Economy and Renewable Fuels

The research forms part of efforts to develop techniques for a circular economy. It addresses the need to develop renewable fuels for hard-to-electrify sectors, such as heavy transport. By using every part of the coffee grounds, the researchers transform a typically underused waste product into various energy vectors and bio-based chemical products. This reduces the environmental impact associated with its accumulation.

Daniel Montané explained that this approach paves the way for the sustainable production of biofuels. The research demonstrates how coffee waste can become a valuable resource rather than an environmental burden.

Implications for the Coffee Industry

This research has significant implications for the coffee industry. It offers a way to reduce waste and generate additional value from coffee production. Coffee roasters, coffee shops, and instant coffee producers could potentially benefit from this technology. The process can be scaled for industrial applications, turning waste into a revenue stream.

The circular economy approach aligns with growing consumer demand for sustainable practices. Coffee companies could enhance their sustainability credentials by adopting such technologies. The research also contributes to reducing the environmental impact of coffee production.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are spent coffee grounds?Spent coffee grounds are the solid waste left over after brewing coffee. They contain approximately 15% lipids that can be extracted for biodiesel production.

How much oil can be extracted from coffee grounds?The optimized process recovers approximately 90% of the available oils from spent coffee grounds.

What are the optimal extraction conditions?The optimal conditions are 45°C for 60 minutes with 35 ml of hexane per gram of dry residue.

What happens to the remaining coffee grounds after oil extraction?The remaining lignocellulosic material can be used to produce bioethanol, lactic acid, sustainable aviation fuels, and other valuable products.

How does this research support sustainability?It promotes a circular economy by turning coffee waste into valuable products, reducing environmental impact and supporting renewable fuel production.

How much coffee waste is generated globally?Global coffee production generates approximately 10 million tonnes of waste annually, with only a small portion ending up in the brewed coffee.

Author: Editorial Team (based on URV research)
Source: Universitat Rovira i Virgili / Biomass and Bioenergy journal
Publication Date: July 27, 2026

USDA Report: Record World Coffee Production in 2026/27

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) – Coffee: World Markets and Trade
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 23, 2026This article covers important findings from the world coffee market report 2026.

USDA Report: Record World Coffee Production in 2026/27

  • World coffee production forecast at a record 189.7 million bags in 2026/27, up 10.8 million from the previous year.
  • Brazil leads the surge with a record 71.9 million bags, driven by a 9.5 million bag Arabica rebound.
  • Global consumption rises to a record 179.7 million bags, with the European Union and United States leading gains.
  • World bean exports forecast at a record 131.4 million bags, up 11.9 million from 2025/26.
  • Ending stocks rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags.
  • Coffee prices have fallen 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies become available.
  • Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Uganda all post production increases, while Indonesia declines.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service released its latest Coffee: World Markets and Trade report. Global coffee production for 2026/27 is forecast at a record 189.7 million bags. This represents an increase of 10.8 million bags from the previous year.

Record output in Brazil, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Vietnam drives this growth. These gains more than compensate for losses in India and Indonesia. World coffee bean exports are expected to reach a record 131.4 million bags. Global consumption is forecast to rise to a record 179.7 million bags.

World Production at Record High

World coffee production for 2026/27 is forecast 10.8 million bags higher than the previous year. Production is expected to reach a record 189.7 million bags. Brazil accounts for the largest share with a record 71.9 million bags. The rebound in Arabica production is particularly notable after five years of underperformance.

World Coffee Production 2026/27 (Million 60-kg Bags)
Category 2025/26 2026/27 Forecast Change
Total Production 178.8 189.7 +10.8
Arabica Production 94.4 105.9 +11.4
Robusta Production 84.4 83.8 -0.6

Brazil: Record Production and Arabica Rebound

Brazil’s combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast at a record 71.9 million bags in 2026/27. This represents an increase of 8.9 million bags from the previous year. Arabica output is expected to rebound 9.5 million bags to 47.5 million, ending a five-year period of underperformance due to adverse weather conditions.

Timely rainfall during flowering in September and October ensured favorable fruit development. Near-record yields were achieved in Minas Gerais, where over 70% of Arabica coffee is grown. Robusta production is forecast to retreat 600,000 bags to 24.4 million following last year’s record harvest. Cooler temperatures combined with elevated rainfall lowered yields in Espirito Santo, where approximately 70% of Robusta is grown.

Brazil accounts for nearly 40% of world production and exerts significant influence on global supplies and prices. Brazil’s role in Arabica markets is even more pronounced, typically supplying between 40% and 50% depending on the biennial crop production cycle.

Brazil Coffee Production Outlook 2026/27
Category 2025/26 2026/27 Forecast Change
Arabica Production 38.0 million bags 47.5 million bags +9.5 million
Robusta Production 25.0 million bags 24.4 million bags -0.6 million
Total Production 63.0 million bags 71.9 million bags +8.9 million
Bean Exports 34.0 million bags 45.0 million bags +11.0 million
Ending Stocks 3.9 million bags 4.4 million bags +0.5 million

Global Consumption and Trade

World coffee bean exports are forecast 11.9 million bags higher to a record 131.4 million bags. This is driven by higher output in major producing countries. Global consumption is expected to rise to a record 179.7 million bags. The largest gains are occurring in the European Union and the United States.

Ending stocks are expected to rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags. This follows a significant drawdown between 2020/21 and 2024/25, when global ending stocks fell 15.5 million bags. While stocks are recovering, they remain below the long-term average.

World Coffee Summary 2026/27 (Million 60-kg Bags)
Category 2025/26 2026/27 Forecast Change
World Production 178.8 189.7 +10.8
World Bean Exports 119.5 131.4 +11.9
World Consumption 173.5 179.7 +6.3
Ending Stocks 24.4 26.3 +1.9

Country-by-Country Production Highlights

Vietnam production is forecast to increase 800,000 bags to a record 32.5 million. Expanding area and higher yields drive this growth. Recent high prices allowed growers to increase expenditures on fertilizers. Bean exports are forecast up 300,000 bags to 25.4 million. Domestic consumption is expected to reach a record 5.0 million bags.

Colombia output is expected to rise 900,000 bags to 13.4 million. Adequate soil moisture from last year’s excessive rains supports this growth. Increased utilization of fertilizers and pesticides also contributes. Bean exports, mostly to the United States and European Union, are forecast up 500,000 bags to 12.2 million.

Ethiopia is forecast to increase output by more than 500,000 bags to a record 12.1 million. Higher area and yield drive this growth. Over the last four years, growth has been driven by replacement of over half of the cultivated area with higher-yielding varieties. Bean exports are forecast up nearly 200,000 bags to 7.1 million.

Central America and Mexico production is forecast to rise nearly 600,000 bags to 17.7 million. Rebounding output in Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Panama contribute to this growth. Honduras is expected to account for nearly all the region’s growth, rebounding 500,000 bags to 6.0 million.

Indonesia production is forecast to drop 1.0 million bags to 11.4 million. Robusta output is expected to decrease 1.0 million bags to 10.0 million due to lower yields. Excessive rainfall disrupted flowering and cherry formation in Southern Sumatra and Java. Reduced output is expected to cut bean exports by over 800,000 bags to 7.0 million.

Key Country Production 2026/27 (Million 60-kg Bags)
Country 2025/26 2026/27 Forecast Change
Brazil 63.0 71.9 +8.9
Vietnam 31.7 32.5 +0.8
Colombia 12.5 13.4 +0.9
Ethiopia 11.6 12.1 +0.5
Indonesia 12.4 11.4 -1.0
Honduras 5.5 6.0 +0.5
Uganda 7.1 7.2 +0.1

Price Impact of Rising Supplies

Coffee prices have dropped 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies became available. This is measured by the International Coffee Organization monthly composite price index. The improving supply situation reflects record production and rising ending stocks.

However, ending stocks remain below the long-term average. Weather developments in key producing regions, particularly Minas Gerais in Brazil, remain the primary indicator for world market conditions. The biennial production cycle in Brazil continues to shape global supply and price expectations.

Revisions to 2025/26 Estimates

World production is unchanged from the December 2025 estimate of 178.8 million bags. Vietnam is raised 900,000 bags to 31.7 million on higher yields. Peru is up nearly 600,000 bags to 4.8 million. Colombia is lowered 1.3 million bags to 12.5 million due to excessive rain and cloud cover. Guatemala is reduced nearly 400,000 bags to 3.2 million due to coffee cherry borer and coffee rust.

World bean exports are revised down 4.3 million bags to 119.5 million. Brazil is lowered 3.0 million bags to 34.0 million due to lower shipments to the EU and United States. Ethiopia is reduced over 800,000 bags to 6.9 million on higher-than-anticipated domestic consumption. Vietnam is up 500,000 bags to 25.1 million on higher output.

Key Takeaways for the Coffee Industry

Record global production is expected to boost supplies significantly. Brazil’s Arabica rebound after five years of underperformance is particularly notable. This could help replenish global inventories that were drawn down in previous years.

Ending stocks are forecast to rise for a second consecutive year. However, they remain below the long-term average. Weather developments in Minas Gerais remain the primary indicator for world market conditions. Coffee prices have fallen 25% in seven months, reflecting improved supply. Producers and traders should monitor Brazil’s production cycle closely, as it heavily influences global market conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the forecast for global coffee production in 2026/27?World production is forecast at a record 189.7 million bags, up 10.8 million from the previous year.

What is Brazil’s production forecast?Brazil is forecast at a record 71.9 million bags, driven by a 9.5 million bag Arabica rebound.

What is the global consumption forecast?Global consumption is expected to rise to a record 179.7 million bags, with the largest gains in the EU and US.

What are ending stocks expected to be?Ending stocks are expected to rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags.

How have coffee prices responded to increased supply?Coffee prices have dropped 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies became available.

Which countries are driving production growth?Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Uganda are all posting production increases, while Indonesia declines.

Author: Qahwa World (based on USDA FAS report)
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Coffee: World Markets and Trade
Publication Date: July 23, 2026

Coffee Drinkers Shift to Whole Beans as Prices Soar

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Qahwa World / Lavazza Group
Author: Editorial Team
Date: July 21, 2026

Coffee Drinkers Shift to Whole Beans as Prices Soar

  • Consumers are buying less but better coffee as global prices remain elevated.
  • Whole bean demand surged 46% year-over-year, according to consumer data.
  • Home brewing equipment sales jumped: drip coffee makers up 66%, espresso machines up 50%.
  • Lavazza reported strong 2025 revenue of €3.9 billion, up 15.7%.
  • Lavazza plans to launch Tablì, a sustainable single-serve system using compressed coffee tablets.
  • Nielsen data shows whole bean sales outpacing overall coffee category across UK and Europe.
  • Price volatility is expected to persist, with no retail price cuts in sight.

Global coffee prices have remained elevated for four consecutive years. Consumers are adapting by buying less but better. This trend toward whole bean coffee and bean-to-cup machines represents a significant market shift.

Giuseppe Lavazza, Chairman of the Lavazza Group, called it the sector’s most important trend. “People are looking for beans,” he said. “They enjoy replicating the coffee shop experience at home. Maybe they prefer to consume a little less but of better quality.”

The Trend Emerged in 2024

This shift did not appear overnight. Early indicators were visible in 2024, well before the price peaks of 2025 intensified the movement. Pattern, a consumer demand analysis firm, reported whole bean coffee demand surged 46% year-over-year. This growth was accompanied by strong increases in home brewing equipment.

Drip coffee makers rose 66%. Espresso machines increased 50%. Accessories such as bean storage also grew 20%. The report highlighted a broader move toward serious at-home coffee preparation. Whole beans serve as the starting point for better freshness and flavor.

Multiple National Coffee Association surveys showed sustained high levels of at-home coffee consumption. Around 81% of past-day drinkers consumed coffee at home in some periods. Out-of-home consumption recovered post-pandemic, but the at-home habit remained strong. Consumers continued seeking premium experiences and better value.

2024 Early Indicators – Consumer Demand Growth
Category Growth
Whole bean coffee demand +46%
Drip coffee makers +66%
Espresso machines +50%
Bean storage accessories +20%

Current Reality: Price Surge Accelerates Change

Record-high coffee prices in 2025 pushed the trend into the mainstream. Poor harvests in Brazil and Vietnam drove the price surge. Climate change impacts, geopolitical disruptions, and financial speculation also contributed.

Nielsen data for the year to May 2026 shows the shift clearly. In the United Kingdom, whole-bean sales rose 20.3% by volume. This far outpaced the overall at-home coffee category, which grew just 2.8%. Value sales jumped 36.8%, while bean-to-cup machine sales increased 33.5%.

In Europe, France saw 35% growth by value. Italy recorded 33% growth. Germany, Europe’s largest coffee market, saw 31.2% growth. Whole beans have now surpassed traditional roast-and-ground coffee in volume in Germany.

In the United States, the shift was more modest but consistent. Whole-bean unit sales rose 3.2% over 52 weeks to June 2026. Meanwhile, pod sales fell 4.9% and ground coffee declined 3.9%.

Nielsen Data – Whole Bean Sales Growth (Year to May 2026)
Market Growth
United Kingdom (volume) +20.3%
United Kingdom (value) +36.8%
France (value) +35.0%
Italy (value) +33.0%
Germany (value) +31.2%
United States (unit sales) +3.2%

Why Prices Soared

The coffee market has faced four years of upheaval. Adverse weather and weak harvests in Brazil and Vietnam were key factors. Climate change impacts, including El Niño risks, added pressure. Geopolitical disruptions, higher shipping costs, and financial speculation in futures markets also played a role.

In the UK, at-home coffee prices rose another 6.3% in the year to May 2026. Roasters found it harder to manage costs by blending cheaper Robusta with Arabica. Both varieties hit record levels simultaneously.

Lavazza noted that futures prices have eased from 2025 peaks. However, the market remains too volatile for widespread retail price cuts. “We think there is not time to think about a possible cut in prices,” he said. “The possibility of another increase is not totally over.” At least two strong harvests in Brazil and Vietnam will be needed to rebuild global inventories.

Lavazza’s Performance and Strategic Response

Despite industry challenges, Lavazza reported strong 2025 results. Revenue reached €3.9 billion, up 15.7%. EBITDA rose 8.8% to €340 million. The company is innovating to stay ahead.

Lavazza plans to launch Tablì in the UK in September 2026. This is a single-serve system using compressed coffee tablets. It addresses waste and recycling concerns associated with plastic and aluminum pods. “Capsule is over,” Lavazza declared. “This is a new benchmark.”

Broader Implications and Future Outlook

Consumer behavior is evolving. Coffee remains recession-resistant. However, buyers are trading down in volume while trading up in quality and experience. The “less but better” philosophy reflects economic pressure and a desire for premium at-home rituals.

The pandemic-initiated home-brewing boom has become structural. Demand for whole beans rewards freshness, flavor complexity, and better value per cup. Persistent climate risks, cautious buying by roasters, and farmers holding stock in hope of higher prices continue to shape the market.

Volatility is now “the new constant,” according to Lavazza. Opportunities remain in premium home equipment, sustainable packaging innovations, and single-origin and specialty offerings.

“People are looking for beans and they enjoy maybe to replicate at home the experience of the coffee shop. Maybe they prefer to consume a little less but of better quality.”

— Giuseppe Lavazza, Chairman, Lavazza Group

Conclusion

What began as a noticeable trend in 2024 has evolved into a major market shift in 2026. Soaring prices amplified the movement. Consumers are not abandoning coffee. They are redefining how they enjoy it. As Lavazza observed, this represents a “fundamental transformation in terms of supply and demand.”

For roasters, retailers, and consumers alike, the message is clear. Quality, freshness, and thoughtful preparation are winning out in an era of higher costs and greater awareness.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the “less but better” coffee trend?Consumers are buying less coffee in volume but choosing higher quality whole beans and premium home brewing equipment to replicate café experiences at home.

How much did whole bean demand surge?Whole bean coffee demand surged 46% year-over-year, according to consumer demand analysis from Pattern.

What are the key market data highlights?In the UK, whole-bean sales rose 20.3% by volume. France saw 35% value growth, Italy 33%, and Germany 31.2%.

Why are coffee prices so high?Poor harvests in Brazil and Vietnam, climate change, geopolitical disruptions, and financial speculation have driven prices to record levels.

What is Lavazza’s new Tablì product?Tablì is a single-serve system using compressed coffee tablets instead of plastic or aluminum pods, addressing waste and recycling concerns.

Will coffee prices come down soon?Lavazza says prices remain too volatile for retail cuts. At least two strong harvests in Brazil and Vietnam are needed to rebuild inventories.

Author: Editorial Team (based on Qahwa World report)
Source: Qahwa World / Lavazza Group / Nielsen / Pattern / NCA
Publication Date: July 21, 2026

AHA Says Five Cups of Coffee Daily Safe for Adults

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Qahwa World
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 20, 2026

AHA Says Five Cups of Coffee Daily Safe for Adults

  • American Heart Association statement says up to five cups of coffee daily is safe for most adults.
  • Three to five 8-ounce cups (about 400 mg caffeine) linked to lower risk of heart disease and stroke.
  • The statement published in Circulation journal analyzed dozens of studies on coffee and heart health.
  • Coffee may help heart health through increased exercise, diuretic effects, and reduced inflammation.
  • Some decaf coffee studies also show benefits due to polyphenols acting as antioxidants.
  • Energy drinks contain higher caffeine levels and may pose health risks, researchers warn.
  • Sugar, syrups, and saturated-fat creamers can dilute or eliminate coffee’s benefits.

There is good news for coffee drinkers. Up to five cups of coffee daily are safe for most adults. The brew may even have benefits for heart health. This comes from a new scientific statement by the American Heart Association.

Drinking three to five 8-ounce cups daily is linked to lower health risks. These include heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and Type 2 diabetes. The statement was published Monday in the journal Circulation.

Mixed Research Gets Much-Needed Clarity

Research on coffee and caffeine has been very mixed. Some studies show benefits. Others show health risks. The new statement provides much-needed clarity.

Dr. Eugenia Gianos is a cardiologist at Northwell Health in New York. She was not involved in the statement. She noted that the public is confused. Many clinicians also do not know how to guide their patients. She added that it is great that coffee might even have benefits. “We could even be recommending soon that people have coffee,” she said.

What the Study Found

The statement’s authors analyzed dozens of studies. They looked at the impact of coffee and caffeine on heart health. Researchers came from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. George Washington University and other institutions also participated.

Dr. Gregory M. Marcus is the statement’s lead author. He is a cardiologist at UC San Francisco. He said evidence for coffee’s safety and benefits has been building over time. Most studies are observational. They cannot prove cause and effect. However, there have been more randomized controlled trials in recent years. These show that coffee consumption can be beneficial for heart health.

Key Findings from AHA Coffee Statement
Finding Detail
Safe daily intake Up to five 8-ounce cups (approx. 400 mg caffeine)
Health benefits linked Lower risk of heart disease, stroke, heart failure, Type 2 diabetes
Optimal range Two to four cups daily
Decaf benefits Also linked to lower diabetes and heart disease risk
Warning Sugar, syrups, creamers dilute benefits
Energy drinks Higher caffeine, potential health risks

Why Coffee Might Help the Heart

Scientists are still studying why caffeine might help the heart. People tend to exercise more on days they drink caffeinated coffee. Coffee acts as a diuretic and can lower blood pressure. Caffeine also blocks a substance that causes atrial fibrillation. This arrhythmia can lead to strokes.

Coffee contains other beneficial substances. These include polyphenols that act as antioxidants. They may reduce inflammation. This could explain why decaf coffee is also linked to lower risks of Type 2 diabetes and heart disease in some studies.

The Sweet Spot for Coffee Consumption

Research suggests the sweet spot for caffeinated coffee is two to four cups daily. This amount is enough to have a biological effect. It is not so much that it reaches toxic levels.

People have different responses to caffeine. Genetics and consumption habits play a role. “We all metabolize caffeine at different speeds,” Marcus said.

What to Avoid

The benefits of coffee can be diluted or eliminated by additives. Sugar, syrups, and creamers with saturated fat are problematic. The statement advises caution with these additions.

The AHA statement also examined other caffeine sources. Energy drinks often contain much higher caffeine levels than coffee. Some research has found they can lead to health problems. These include irregular heartbeats and high blood pressure. Marcus advises people to avoid energy drinks.

“Not only is the lay public confused about this topic, but many clinicians out there don’t know how to guide their patients. It is great that a drink so many people enjoy daily might even have benefits. We could even be recommending soon that people have coffee.”

— Dr. Eugenia Gianos, Northwell Health

“We all metabolize caffeine at different speeds.”

— Dr. Gregory M. Marcus, UC San Francisco

Implications for Public Health

The AHA statement offers clear guidance for consumers and clinicians. It suggests that moderate coffee consumption can be part of a heart-healthy lifestyle. The evidence supports coffee’s safety and potential benefits. However, individual responses vary. People should be mindful of additions like sugar and cream. Energy drinks should be avoided due to higher risks.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is it safe to drink five cups of coffee daily?Yes, according to the American Heart Association. Up to five 8-ounce cups daily (about 400 mg caffeine) are safe for most adults.

What are the health benefits of coffee?Moderate coffee consumption is linked to lower risk of heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and Type 2 diabetes.

What is the optimal number of cups per day?Research suggests the sweet spot is generally between two and four cups daily for cardiovascular benefits.

Is decaf coffee also beneficial?Yes, some studies show decaf coffee is also linked to lower risk of Type 2 diabetes and heart disease due to polyphenols.

Can additives reduce coffee’s benefits?Yes, sugar, syrups, and creamers with saturated fat can dilute or eliminate the health benefits of coffee.

Are energy drinks safe?Researchers advise avoiding energy drinks. They often contain much higher caffeine levels and have been linked to irregular heartbeats and high blood pressure.

Author: Qahwa World
Source: Qahwa World
Publication Date: July 20, 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report June 2026: Prices Rebound on El Niño Fears

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, June 2026
Date: July 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report June 2026: Prices Rebound on El Niño Fears

Executive Summary

  • The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I‑CIP) averaged 248.90 US cents/lb in June 2026, down 2.8% from May. However, prices rebounded sharply by 17.4% from a two-year low on June 9 to a two-month high at month-end.
  • Super El Niño fears (67% confidence) and excessive rainfall in Brazil (1,956% above average in Minas Gerais) slowed the harvest and raised quality concerns, reversing the downward trend.
  • Robusta prices rose 1.7% to 169.39 US cents/lb, while Brazilian Naturals fell 7.4% to 272.01 US cents/lb.
  • US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags, the lowest since February 2024. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags.
  • Global green bean exports fell 4.1% to 10.8 million bags in May 2026, driven by a 17.2% drop in Brazilian Naturals. Robusta exports rose 4.8%.
  • The Strait of Hormuz closure added 10-14 days to shipping routes, raising fuel costs 68% and fertilizer prices 25%.
  • The USDA forecast a record Brazilian 2026/27 crop at 71.9 million bags (+14%), while Rabobank raised its global Arabica surplus estimate by 35.7%.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 248.90 US cents per pound in June 2026. This was a 2.8% decrease from May 2026.

Prices continued their downward trend in early June. They fell to 231.96 US cents/lb on June 9, the lowest level in nearly two years. However, prices then rebounded sharply by 17.4%.

They reached a two-month high of 272.39 US cents/lb at the end of the month. Weather emerged as the principal driver of coffee price dynamics in June.

The Colombian Milds and Robustas recorded modest gains. The Colombian Milds rose 0.4% to 324.60 US cents/lb. Robustas increased 1.7% to 169.39 US cents/lb.

In contrast, the Other Milds declined 2.4% to 307.83 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals fell 7.4% to 272.01 US cents/lb. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags.

US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags. This was the lowest level since February 2024. The market became increasingly nervous as inventories tightened.

Super El Niño Fears Drive Rebound

Market sentiment shifted abruptly in June. Growing confidence that El Niño would develop into a Super El Niño halted the downward price movement on June 9.

The Japan Meteorological Agency and NOAA released reports on June 10 and 11. They indicated 67% confidence in a Super El Niño event, the highest confidence level on record.

These forecasts raised concerns about the potential impact on the 2026/27 coffee harvest. The effects vary across regions and seasons.

Reduced rainfall is expected in the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico. Raised temperatures and reduced rainfall are forecast for northern Brazil and parts of South America.

Increased rainfall is expected in southern Brazil and Bolivia. More erratic rainfall and flooding are forecast for East Africa. Drought conditions are expected in Southeast Asia.

On June 17 and 24, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was progressing slowly. The harvest reached 39% and 44% completion, respectively.

The delay was concentrated in Arabica areas. Excess rainfall disrupted harvesting and drying operations, particularly in Minas Gerais. The 44% completion figure on June 24 was below the 51% recorded a year earlier and the five-year average of 47%.

On June 29, Somar Meteorologia measured 31.3 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais. This was equivalent to 1,956% of the historical average for the period. The unusually high precipitation occurred during the normally dry season. It delayed harvesting and drying operations and raised concerns over bean quality.

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Add Supply Pressure

The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed from February 28. This forced Asia-Europe shipping routes to divert via the Cape of Good Hope. Transit times increased by 10 to 14 days.

Bunker fuel prices were up 68% from mid-to-late February. Container spot rates roughly doubled. Fertilizer prices increased 25%.

A gradual reopening occurred on June 22-23 following the U.S.-Iran agreement on June 17. This pushed Robusta prices to a one-week low. However, attacks on the Ever Lovely on June 25 and the Kiku on June 27 renewed geopolitical tensions within days. The associated premiums returned quickly.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 1.09 million bags on June 30. This was the lowest level since February 2024. The decline signaled tighter availability of deliverable stocks. The market was left with limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions.

Supply Fundamentals and Bearish Factors

On June 1, the USDA forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at a record level. The forecast was 14% above the previous season. Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global Arabica surplus estimate by 35.7%.

These forecasts reinforced previous positive reports. CONAB’s official second survey projected Brazil’s total crop at 66.7 million bags. Safras & Mercado projected a total crop increase of 13.4%.

In late May, the USDA revised its estimate of Vietnam’s 2025/26 output upwards to 31.7 million bags. It forecast production at 32.5 million bags for 2026/27. The dollar index stood at 101.6 during the week of June 22. This was close to a 15-month high, creating a headwind for coffee prices.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets contracted by 13.3% to 100.86 US cents/lb in June 2026. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.6%.

Exports: Arabica Declines, Robusta Gains

Global green bean exports totalled 10.8 million bags in May 2026. This was a 4.1% decline compared to 11.26 million bags in May 2025. All coffee groups recorded declines except Robustas.

Robusta exports were up 4.8% to 4.34 million bags. This was driven mainly by Brazil, where exports surged by 195.6% to 0.61 million bags. The sharp rise reflects differences in harvest timing between the current and previous Robusta harvests.

Colombian Milds exports fell by 1.7% to 0.98 million bags. This marked the seventh consecutive month of negative growth. Other Milds shipments fell by 2.8% to 2.75 million bags. This was the first negative growth observed in coffee year 2025/26.

Brazilian Naturals exports fell by 17.2% to 2.73 million bags. This marked the 15th consecutive month of negative growth. The declines were primarily driven by Brazil and Ethiopia.

Total Arabica exports decreased to 6.46 million bags in May 2026. This was a 9.3% drop from 7.12 million bags in May 2025. As a result, Arabica’s share of total green bean exports fell to 60.2% from 64.0% a year earlier.

Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60‑kg bags)

Coffee Group May 2025 May 2026 Change
Robustas 4.14 4.34 +4.8%
Colombian Milds 0.99 0.98 -1.7%
Other Milds 2.82 2.75 -2.8%
Brazilian Naturals 3.30 2.73 -17.2%

Exports by Region: Mixed Performance

Global exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 3.2% to 12.38 million bags in May 2026. The dynamics across the four regions were mixed.

Exports from Asia & Oceania were up 0.4% to 4.32 million bags. India led the growth with exports increasing 33.7% to 0.74 million bags. However, this was largely offset by decreases in Indonesia and Vietnam.

Africa’s exports decreased by 24.1% to 1.63 million bags. The contraction was driven largely by Ethiopia and Uganda. Their combined exports fell to an estimated 1.31 million bags from 1.77 million bags in May 2025.

South America’s exports increased by 4.3% to 4.29 million bags. This was the first monthly increase in 18 months. The upturn was driven mainly by Brazil, whose exports were up 4.3%.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America decreased by 3.8% to 2.14 million bags. This was the first negative growth in coffee year 2025/26, driven mainly by Nicaragua.

Soluble coffee exports increased by 3.6% to 1.51 million bags. Vietnam, Brazil, and India were the largest exporters. Roasted bean exports were up 10.8% to 0.07 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in June 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 248.90 US cents/lb in June 2026, a 2.8% decrease from May. However, prices rebounded sharply from a two-year low on June 9 to a two-month high by month-end.

What caused the price rebound in June?

Super El Niño fears (67% confidence) and excessive rainfall in Brazil (1,956% above average in Minas Gerais) slowed the harvest and raised quality concerns, reversing the downward trend.

How did coffee stocks perform in June?

US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags, the lowest since February 2024. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags. Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 1.09 million bags.

How did the Strait of Hormuz closure affect coffee prices?

The closure added 10-14 days to shipping routes, raising bunker fuel costs 68%, container spot rates by about 100%, and fertilizer prices 25%.

What were the export trends in May 2026?

Global green bean exports fell 4.1% to 10.8 million bags. Robusta exports rose 4.8%, while Brazilian Naturals fell 17.2%. Total Arabica exports were down 9.3%.

What was Brazil’s harvest outlook in June?

The USDA forecast a record 2026/27 Brazilian crop at 71.9 million bags (+14%). However, excessive rainfall in June slowed harvesting, with only 44% completed by June 24, below the five-year average of 47%.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, June 2026 | Date: July 2026

Brazil Coffee Harvest 2026 Faces Delays

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Sucafina Brazil / Industry Report
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 8, 2026

Brazil Coffee Harvest 2026 Faces Delays

  • Brazil’s 2026/27 crop is forecast at 75.4 million bags, driven by a 27% increase in Arabica production.
  • Harvest progress is significantly slower than usual, reaching only 45.2% by June 26.
  • Early quality indicators are strong, with 25% of Arabica grading screen 17+ and 70% of Robusta grading screen 13+.
  • Sucafina plans to expand IMPACT verification by 16% in 2026 across key producing regions.
  • Regenerative agriculture initiatives include 45 demonstration plots and training for 50 producers.
  • Two flagship programs, SEMEIA and RE.CO.LHA, are moving from planning to implementation this year.
  • Despite delays, tree health and vegetative growth suggest a positive outlook for the 2027/28 crop.

Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is expected to arrive late. Persistent rainfall and delayed Robusta maturation have slowed operations. However, early quality indicators remain promising.

The total crop is forecast to reach 75.4 million bags. This represents a significant recovery led by Arabica production. At the same time, sustainability initiatives continue to expand across key regions.

Arabica Harvest Shows Strong Recovery

The Arabica harvest is progressing more slowly than usual. Recurring rainfall throughout May and June caused significant delays. As of June 26, the overall Brazilian harvest reached 45.2%. This is below last year’s pace of 52.1%. It is also below the historical average of 51%.

Despite the slower pace, Arabica production is forecast to increase by 27%. This growth drives the total crop estimate to 75.4 million bags. Early quality indicators align with expectations for a high-volume crop. Screen 17+ beans account for around 25% of harvested volumes.

In addition, the recurring rains have supported tree health. Vegetative growth remains strong. This suggests a positive outlook for the 2027/28 crop as well.

Robusta Harvest Behind Schedule

The Robusta harvest is also behind schedule. The primary reason is a later-than-usual maturation cycle. Weather disruptions are not the main factor. Harvest activity began within the usual window in April and May. However, progress has been significantly slower than normal.

Completion is expected by the end of July. Robusta production is forecast to decline slightly by approximately 4% year-on-year. Nevertheless, early quality has been encouraging. Around 70% of beans grade screen 13 and above. Overall quality remains strong. This supports expectations for a solid crop despite the delayed harvest.

Brazil 2026/27 Coffee Harvest Key Indicators
Indicator Value
Total forecasted crop 75.4 million bags
Arabica production growth +27% year-on-year
Harvest progress (as of June 26) 45.2%
Arabica screen 17+ quality 25% of harvested volumes
Robusta screen 13+ quality 70% of harvested volumes
Robusta production change -4% year-on-year

Sustainability Efforts Gain Momentum

Sucafina’s sustainability efforts continue to expand. The company is advancing the re-verification of IMPACT producer groups. These groups span the Cerrado, Mogiana, Sul de Minas, and Conilon regions. This process reinforces commitment to responsible sourcing and high-quality standards.

In 2026, the team in Brazil aims to expand IMPACT verification by approximately 16%. The strongest growth is expected across Arabica-producing regions. Matas de Minas has been identified as a strategic priority. Updated participation figures are expected by September.

Regenerative Agriculture Through IMPACT Beyond

Through IMPACT Beyond, Sucafina deepens its focus on regenerative agriculture. Producers receive assistance on multiple fronts. This includes low-carbon fertilizers, composting, and irrigation management. Soil health assessment uses Embrapa’s BioAS methodology.

BioAS adds a biological layer to routine soil testing. It measures the activity of two enzymes: arylsulfatase and beta-glucosidase. This provides real-time data on soil health, sustainability, and productive potential. Early detection of degradation helps build long-term soil resilience.

So far, the program has set over 45 demonstration plots. Around 50 producers have received training. This gives farmers practical, field-based learning opportunities.

SEMEIA and RE.CO.LHA Lead the Way

2026 marks a pivotal year for IMPACT Beyond. Two flagship initiatives are moving from planning to implementation: SEMEIA and RE.CO.LHA.

RE.CO.LHA operates across Brazil’s Arabica regions. These include Cerrado, Mogiana, and South Minas Gerais. The program runs on a four-year cycle. It targets 300 farms with technical assistance, farmer training, and on-farm interventions. The goal is to improve soil health, cut production costs, and lower carbon emissions.

SEMEIA is now in its first year. It is transforming Brazil’s Robusta sector. In just 12 months, the program has conducted more than 100 soil analyses. These cover physical, chemical, and biological indicators. It has distributed more than 120 tonnes of low-carbon fertilizers. Farm carbon footprints have been measured. Through a partnership with EMATER-MG, production cost analyses give producers clearer visibility into their costs.

“It is incredibly rewarding to see the positive feedback from farmers. What stands out most is our collaborative approach, aligning farmers’ needs with what investors expect. It is a challenge, but an inspiring one, because every step forward builds a more sustainable and profitable future for the communities we support.”

— Mariana Martins, Sustainability Manager at Sucafina Brasil

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the forecast for Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop?The total crop is forecast at 75.4 million bags, driven by a 27% increase in Arabica production.

Why is the harvest delayed?Persistent rainfall in May and June delayed Arabica harvest. Robusta harvest is also behind schedule due to a later-than-usual maturation cycle.

How is coffee quality this season?Early quality indicators are strong. Around 25% of Arabica beans grade screen 17+, and 70% of Robusta beans grade screen 13+.

What is the IMPACT program?IMPACT is Sucafina’s Responsible Sourcing Program. It focuses on responsible sourcing, partnerships at origin, and high-quality standards.

What are SEMEIA and RE.CO.LHA?They are two flagship sustainability initiatives. RE.CO.LHA targets Arabica regions with technical assistance. SEMEIA focuses on transforming Brazil’s Robusta sector.

How does BioAS methodology work?BioAS adds a biological layer to soil testing. It measures enzyme activity to assess soil health, sustainability, and productive potential in real time.

Author: Editorial Team (based on Sucafina Brazil report)
Source: Sucafina Brazil / Industry Update
Publication Date: July 8, 2026

Coffee Linked to Lower Risk of Cirrhosis and Liver Cancer in Large Study

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: July 2, 2026

Coffee Linked to Lower Risk of Cirrhosis and Liver Cancer in Large Study

Key Findings:

  • Study of over 354,000 UK Biobank participants followed for a median of 13 years.
  • Five or more cups of coffee daily linked to 32% lower risk of cirrhosis, 47% lower risk of liver cancer, and 42% lower risk of liver-related death.
  • The association followed a dose-response pattern: more coffee, lower risk.
  • Similar results for caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee, suggesting non-caffeine compounds play a protective role.
  • Adding sugar or sweeteners did not eliminate benefits but was linked to markers of liver inflammation and fibrosis.
  • Proteomic analysis identified 74 proteins associated with coffee intake and reduced fibrosis risk.

A large-scale study of over 354,000 participants from the UK Biobank has found that higher coffee consumption is associated with significantly lower risks of cirrhosis, liver cancer, and liver-related death. The findings, published in Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology, also identified MRI and blood protein changes that may help explain the biological mechanisms behind the association.

The study followed participants for a median of 13 years. Researchers assessed self-reported coffee consumption, including coffee type and whether participants added sugar or artificial sweeteners. They then examined how these habits were associated with new cases of liver disease, MRI measures of liver health in a subgroup of 28,961 patients, and blood protein profiles in 44,633 patients.

The Numbers: Striking Reductions in Risk

Compared with non-coffee drinkers, those who consumed five or more cups daily were:

  • 32% less likely to develop cirrhosis.
  • 47% less likely to develop hepatocellular carcinoma.
  • 42% less likely to die from liver disease.

The association followed a dose-response pattern, with lower risks observed starting at one to two cups per day. Similar findings were observed for both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee, suggesting that compounds other than caffeine may play a protective role.

Condition Risk Reduction (5+ cups/day)
Cirrhosis 32%
Hepatocellular Carcinoma 47%
Liver-Related Death 42%

Sugar and Sweeteners: Mixed Effects

Researchers also examined whether adding sugar or artificial sweeteners changed the association between coffee and liver health. Overall, patients who added sweeteners had similar reductions in the risk of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related death compared to those who drank unsweetened coffee. However, they had 1.36 times the odds of elevated iron-corrected T1, an MRI marker of liver inflammation and fibrosis, compared with patients who did not add sweeteners.

MRI Findings: Benefits Visible Before Symptoms Appear

MRI results suggested that higher coffee intake was associated with better liver health before liver disease became clinically apparent. Patients who drank at least five cups daily had less liver fat, lower liver iron levels, and lower odds of liver fibroinflammation than non-coffee drinkers. The findings were similar for caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee, further supporting the role of non-caffeine compounds in liver protection.

Proteomic Analysis: 74 Proteins Point to Potential Mechanisms

Proteomic analyses identified 74 proteins associated with both coffee intake and cirrhosis risk, suggesting biological pathways related to liver function, inflammation, fibrosis, and immune regulation. These findings may help explain coffee’s observed associations with better liver health and provide new mechanistic clues.

Expert Insight: Interview with Lead Researcher Dr. Hyunseok Kim

Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology invited study author Dr. Hyunseok Kim of the Karsh Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center to comment on the implications of this work.

Q: Why does this study matter?
Dr. Kim: Coffee has long been associated with better liver health, but most previous studies focused only on clinical outcomes such as cirrhosis or liver cancer. Our study is unique because it integrates clinical outcomes with advanced MRI biomarkers and large-scale plasma proteomics in more than 350,000 UK Biobank participants. By combining these complementary approaches, we were able to show not only that coffee consumption is associated with lower risks of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related mortality, but also that it is linked to less liver fat, less fibroinflammation on MRI, and favorable biological pathways involved in fibrosis and inflammation. This provides stronger biological evidence supporting coffee as a simple lifestyle factor that may promote liver health.

Q: Was there a finding that surprised you?
Dr. Kim: Several findings stood out. First, we observed remarkably consistent associations across clinical outcomes, imaging biomarkers, and proteomic signatures, all pointing in the same direction. Second, both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee showed similar associations, suggesting that compounds other than caffeine likely contribute to the liver benefits. Finally, we were intrigued that coffee drinkers had lower levels of proteins involved in fibrosis, macrophage activation, and extracellular matrix remodeling, while proteins reflecting healthier liver synthetic function were higher. These findings offer new mechanistic clues that go beyond the epidemiologic associations reported previously.

Q: How might the findings influence clinical practice?
Dr. Kim: This study should not be interpreted as evidence that coffee is a treatment for chronic liver disease. However, for most patients without contraindications, moderate coffee consumption appears to be a safe, inexpensive, and potentially beneficial lifestyle habit that can complement other evidence-based interventions such as weight loss, alcohol abstinence, and management of metabolic risk factors. I hope these findings will give clinicians greater confidence when discussing dietary habits with patients and encourage further research into the biological mechanisms underlying coffee’s protective effects.

Limitations and Recommendations: A Simple Prevention Strategy

The authors noted several limitations, including self-reported coffee intake, the possibility of unmeasured confounding and reverse causation, a healthier MRI subgroup, and the predominantly European ancestry of the study population, which may limit the generalizability of the findings. They also noted that the blood protein findings require experimental studies to confirm the underlying biological mechanisms.

Nevertheless, the authors concluded that “higher coffee intake was associated with lower risks of cirrhosis, HCC, and liver-related mortality, as well as favorable MRI-based and proteomic profiles.” They added that the combined clinical, imaging, and molecular findings support coffee as “a simple, scalable strategy for liver disease prevention.”

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee and Liver Health

Q: How many cups of coffee are needed to reduce liver disease risk?

A: The study showed benefits starting at one to two cups daily, with more pronounced effects at five or more cups per day.

Q: Does decaffeinated coffee offer the same benefits?

A: Yes. Similar associations were observed for both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee, suggesting non-caffeine compounds play a protective role.

Q: Does adding sugar negate coffee’s benefits?

A: Adding sugar or sweeteners did not eliminate the main benefits but was linked to markers of liver inflammation and fibrosis, so excessive additions should be avoided.

Q: Can coffee be considered a treatment for liver disease?

A: No. The study does not prove that coffee is a treatment. However, moderate consumption may be a beneficial complement to standard interventions.

Q: What biological mechanisms might explain coffee’s protective effects?

A: The study identified 74 proteins linked to reduced inflammation and fibrosis, suggesting multiple biological pathways may explain the benefits.

This study adds to the growing evidence on coffee’s potential health benefits, particularly for liver health. With risk reductions of up to 47%, coffee emerges as a simple, accessible tool for preventing chronic liver disease. However, further experimental studies are needed to confirm the biological mechanisms and determine optimal intake. In the meantime, coffee lovers can continue to enjoy their favorite beverage with greater awareness of its potential benefits.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on the study published in Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology on July 1, 2026.

Original source: Doug Brunk – Medical Report.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: July 2, 2026

Just 90 Seconds Turns Wet Coffee Grounds into High-Grade Solid Fuel

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: National Research Council of Science & Technology – Chemical Engineering Journal |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 21, 2026

Just 90 Seconds Turns Wet Coffee Grounds into High-Grade Solid Fuel

Key Takeaways:

  • Korean researchers develop Flame Plasma Pyrolysis (FPP) technology to convert wet coffee grounds into biochar in just 90 seconds.
  • The technology eliminates the need for pre-drying, the biggest barrier to coffee waste recycling.
  • The resulting biochar achieves a heating value of 29.0 MJ/kg, comparable to high-grade anthracite coal.
  • The process achieves 83.3% mass reduction and triples fixed carbon content (from 15.6% to 46.2%).
  • The technology is 40 to 240 times faster than conventional hydrothermal carbonization.
  • Potential applications include food waste, sewage sludge, and agricultural residues with high moisture content.

Every year, global coffee consumption generates more than 10 million tons of spent coffee grounds, most of which end up landfilled or incinerated, releasing greenhouse gases and polluting the environment. While these grounds hold real energy potential, their high moisture content has long been a barrier to converting them into fuel or carbon products.

Now, a research team from the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) has developed a revolutionary technology called Flame Plasma Pyrolysis (FPP), which directly treats biomass containing approximately 55% moisture without any pre-drying, converting it into high-quality biochar in just 90 seconds.

A Solution to the Growing Waste Challenge: From Waste to Energy

The global coffee industry faces a growing environmental challenge: more than 10 million tons of spent coffee grounds are produced annually, with most ending up in landfills or incinerators. These grounds are not just waste – they are wasted energy. Coffee grounds contain a heating value of up to 21.8 MJ/kg, but their high moisture content (approximately 55%) has been the biggest obstacle to economic utilization.

Flame Plasma Pyrolysis: A Revolution in Wet Waste Processing

The flame plasma system generates plasma flames at temperatures of approximately 800–900°C through the combustion of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and compressed air. Unlike conventional pyrolysis technologies, the process eliminates the need for any pre-drying treatment. During processing, the intense thermal energy rapidly vaporizes moisture trapped inside the biomass particles. The resulting pressure buildup triggers microscopic explosions known as the “popcorn effect,” which simultaneously enhance carbonization and create highly porous structures. Rather than acting as a barrier, moisture itself becomes a steam-activation agent that accelerates reactions and improves product quality.

Anthracite-Level Fuel Performance and Significant Quality Improvements

Under optimized conditions, the researchers achieved complete conversion within 90 seconds, with a mass reduction of 83.3%. The resulting biochar exhibited a heating value of 29.0 MJ/kg, approximately 33% higher than the original coffee grounds (21.8 MJ/kg) and comparable to that of anthracite coal.

Indicator Before Treatment After Treatment Improvement
Heating Value (MJ/kg) 21.8 29.0 +33%
Fixed Carbon Content (%) 15.6 46.2 ≈3×
Specific Surface Area (m²/g) 1.5 115.4 ×77
Sulfur Compounds Present Fully Removed No SOx Emissions

Dramatically Faster Than Existing Technologies

The new process offers substantial advantages in both processing speed and energy efficiency. Compared with hydrothermal carbonization (HTC), which typically requires one to six hours, the FPP process is 40 to 240 times faster. It also reduces treatment time by more than 20-fold compared with torrefaction, which generally requires at least 30 minutes. Because the system relies on combustion-generated plasma rather than electricity-intensive plasma devices, it lowers overall energy consumption while maintaining high processing performance.

Future Applications: From Coffee Waste to Decentralized Energy Systems

Beyond coffee waste, the technology is potentially applicable to a wide range of high-moisture organic wastes, including food waste, sewage sludge, and agricultural residues. Its compact process design and ultra-fast treatment capability make it particularly attractive for decentralized on-site waste-to-energy facilities, where transportation and drying costs often limit resource recovery efforts.

Researchers: “We Are Changing the Paradigm from Waste as a Problem to Waste as an Energy Resource”

Dr. Taejun Park, lead author of the study, said: “This technology presents a new paradigm in which waste is no longer viewed as a disposal problem but as a valuable energy resource.” He added: “We plan to expand the technology to various types of high-moisture organic waste and further optimize the process for industrial-scale commercialization.”

Research Context: Published in the Leading Chemical Engineering Journal

The research was published in the Chemical Engineering Journal (Elsevier, Impact Factor 13.2), a leading international journal in chemical engineering. The study demonstrates a new approach for transforming wet organic waste into valuable energy resources while advancing carbon-neutral waste management strategies. The Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) is a government-funded research institute specializing in geoscience, mineral resources, energy technologies, and Earth system science.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Waste-to-Fuel Technology

Q: What is Flame Plasma Pyrolysis technology?

A: A revolutionary technology developed by Korean researchers that converts wet biomass (such as coffee grounds) into high-quality biochar in just 90 seconds, without any pre-drying.

Q: What is the heating value of the resulting biochar?

A: 29.0 MJ/kg, which is 33% higher than the original coffee grounds and comparable to high-grade anthracite coal.

Q: How long does the conversion process take?

A: Just 90 seconds – 40 to 240 times faster than conventional hydrothermal carbonization techniques.

Q: Can this technology be applied to other types of waste?

A: Yes, it can be applied to food waste, sewage sludge, and agricultural residues with high moisture content.

Q: What are the environmental benefits of this technology?

A: It reduces waste sent to landfills, lowers greenhouse gas emissions, and produces clean sulfur-free fuel, preventing SOx emissions.

Flame Plasma Pyrolysis technology represents a paradigm shift in converting wet organic waste into valuable energy resources. With rapid, cost-effective processing, this technology opens new horizons for sustainable waste management and renewable energy production. As global coffee consumption continues to grow, this technology may be the key to turning one of the biggest waste challenges into an energy and environmental opportunity.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a study published in the Chemical Engineering Journal (Elsevier) by the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 21, 2026

International Coffee Partners Support Integrated Livelihoods and Strengthen Women in the Coffee Sector in 2025

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: International Coffee Partners – 2025 Annual Report |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 19, 2026

International Coffee Partners Support Integrated Livelihoods and Strengthen Women in the Coffee Sector in 2025

Key Takeaways:

  • International Coffee Partners (ICP) reached 12,819 smallholder coffee farming households across 5 countries in 2025, with a new project launched in Ethiopia.
  • Household income increased in Brazil from USD 16,033 to USD 18,170, and in Honduras from USD 7,938 to USD 10,372.
  • Indonesia saw income jump from USD 2,925 to USD 4,781, while Tanzania increased from USD 1,227 to USD 1,441 and Uganda from USD 1,793 to USD 1,949.
  • The Women’s Empowerment Index improved significantly: from 52% to 63% in Brazil, 61% to 68% in Honduras, and 65% to 84% in Tanzania.
  • 45% of women and 21% of youth participated in project activities and trainings in 2025, with 487 farmer organizations engaged.
  • Since its founding in 2001, ICP has implemented 28 projects in 13 countries, reaching 125,700 households with investments of EUR 25 million.

International Coffee Partners (ICP) released its 2025 Annual Report, revealing continued efforts to support smallholder coffee farmers across five countries: Brazil, Honduras, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Uganda, with a new project launched in Ethiopia. Despite rising global coffee prices delivering short-term income gains, climate variability and continued dependence on favorable market conditions highlighted the sector’s cyclical nature and farmers’ exposure to global market fluctuations.

Smallholder coffee farmers continue to face significant challenges related to volatile markets, climate variability, and limited access to services and finance. These challenges are most pronounced in rural areas where livelihoods depend on climate-sensitive agricultural systems and often lack sufficient diversification, making households vulnerable to both climate and market-related shocks.

2025 Figures and Achievements: 12,819 Households Reached and New Project in Ethiopia

In 2025, ICP projects supported 12,819 smallholder coffee farming households across the five countries, with core activities including capacity building, climate-smart agriculture, livelihood diversification, strengthening farmer organizations, and inclusion of women and youth. The “CAFE Legacy” project was launched in Ethiopia, working with 10 cooperatives and one cooperative union, reaching over 2,000 members and indirectly benefiting approximately 12,000 coffee farming households.

Country Households Income 2024 (USD) Income 2025 (USD) WEI 2024 WEI 2025
Brazil 1,157 16,033 18,170 52% 63%
Honduras 2,303 7,938 10,372 61% 68%
Indonesia 3,607 2,925 4,781 70% 72%
Tanzania 3,620 1,227 1,441 65% 84%
Uganda 2,132 1,793 1,949 64% 66%

Source: ICP 2025 Annual Report. WEI = Women’s Empowerment Index.

Key Results by Country: Income Growth and Women’s Empowerment at the Forefront

Brazil: Average annual household income rose from USD 16,033 to USD 18,170, with the share of farmers practicing record keeping increasing from 54% to 72%. The Women’s Empowerment Index increased from 52% to 63%, reflecting stronger joint decision-making and agency at household level.

Honduras: Average annual household income increased from USD 7,938 to USD 10,372, with the Women’s Empowerment Index rising from 61% to 68%, alongside improved adoption of Good Agricultural Practices and Climate-Smart Agriculture.

Indonesia: The highest relative income increase was recorded, from USD 2,925 to USD 4,781, with a focus on women’s economic empowerment through women’s groups and improved farming practices.

Tanzania: Average annual household income increased from USD 1,227 to USD 1,441, with a notable increase in the Women’s Empowerment Index from 65% to 84%, reflecting significant progress in women’s participation in decision-making and cooperative leadership.

Uganda: Average annual household income increased from USD 1,793 to USD 1,949, with an integrated approach combining participatory climate planning, Farmer Field School training, and cooperative strengthening.

Ethiopia: In 2025, the “CAFE Legacy” (Coffee Alliances for Ethiopia) project was launched, building on the achievements of previous CAFE projects in which ICP worked closely with smallholder farmers and farmer organizations to enhance skills, productivity, and climate resilience. The project will collaborate with 10 coffee cooperatives and one cooperative union, reaching more than 2,000 cooperative members, including women and youth, and will indirectly benefit approximately 12,000 coffee farming households. Key focus areas include: strengthening cooperative governance and management capacity, improving business performance and market competitiveness, enhancing coffee quality through improved post-harvest handling and standards, promoting youth and women’s participation and leadership, and supporting infrastructure such as drying beds and storage facilities.

Women as Drivers of Transformation – Empowerment Index Shows Notable Improvement

ICP emphasizes that women’s empowerment strengthens the economic resilience and productivity of coffee-farming households and communities. The Women’s Empowerment Index saw notable improvements across all countries, particularly in Tanzania from 65% to 84%, Honduras from 61% to 68%, and Brazil from 52% to 63%. Activities included gender and youth-focused approaches to enhance participation and economic opportunities.

Global Presence: 28 Projects in 13 Countries, Reaching 125,700 Households

Since its founding in 2001, ICP has implemented 28 projects in 13 countries, reaching 125,700 households with total investments of EUR 25 million from ICP shareholders. ICP worked with 487 farmer organizations, and 45% of women and 21% of youth participated in project activities and trainings in 2025.

Institutional Partners and Estimated Returns

ICP’s institutional partners include Neumann Gruppe, EMS, EST, Café Gold, Kabi, and Nestlé. ICP estimates that every euro invested by its shareholders generates approximately 7 euros in social, environmental, and economic returns, reflecting the effectiveness of its integrated development model.

What Matters: Integrated Livelihood Support and Women’s Empowerment

ICP emphasizes that integrated livelihood support requires empowering smallholder farmers to assess risks, opportunities, and trade-offs in increasingly complex environments. Through a participatory and inclusive approach, content is tailored to local needs with continuous community feedback. Training and technical support are linked to institutional strengthening and inclusive economic development, enabling farmers to manage climate risks and access market opportunities. ICP believes that women can be key drivers of transformation and that empowering them strengthens the economic resilience and productivity of coffee-farming households and communities.

Frequently Asked Questions About the ICP 2025 Annual Report

Q: Which countries did ICP work in during 2025?

A: Brazil, Honduras, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Uganda, with a new project launched in Ethiopia.

Q: How many households benefited from ICP projects in 2025?

A: 12,819 smallholder coffee farming households.

Q: Which countries saw the highest income increases?

A: Indonesia saw the highest relative increase from USD 2,925 to USD 4,781, followed by Honduras from USD 7,938 to USD 10,372.

Q: How did the Women’s Empowerment Index improve?

A: It improved across all countries, with significant increases in Tanzania from 65% to 84%, Honduras from 61% to 68%, and Brazil from 52% to 63%.

Q: What are ICP’s cumulative investments and reach since its founding?

A: EUR 25 million invested, reaching 125,700 households across 13 countries.

The ICP 2025 Annual Report confirms that investing in smallholder coffee farmers, empowering women, and strengthening local institutions are essential pillars for building a more resilient and sustainable coffee sector. As climate and market challenges persist, integrated development models that place farmers at the heart of solutions are increasingly vital.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on the 2025 Annual Report of International Coffee Partners (ICP).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 19, 2026

Climate Pressures Affect All Coffee Producers, But Their Adaptation Capacities Vary Shockingly

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: TechnoServe and ACT Coffee Programme (UNIDO) – June 2026 |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 18, 2026

Climate Pressures Affect All Coffee Producers, But Their Adaptation Capacities Vary Shockingly

Key Takeaways:

  • A new report from TechnoServe and the ACT Coffee Programme reveals that all ten leading coffee-producing countries face increasing climate stress, but their ability to adapt varies significantly.
  • Latin American countries and Indonesia are the most vulnerable to climate risks, while East African countries are less exposed but suffer from greater economic fragility.
  • The income gap is striking: Ugandan coffee farmers earn $610 per hectare, while their counterparts in Vietnam earn $4,885.
  • The report calls for strategic investments of $560 million annually over seven years, which could generate $2.1 billion in additional farm income and $2.6 billion in exports per year.
  • Thirteen global coffee companies have endorsed the report’s findings, signaling growing industry awareness of the need for climate action.

A new report from TechnoServe, in partnership with the ACT Coffee Programme of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), reveals that ten of the world’s leading coffee-producing countries face escalating climate pressures. However, the most striking finding is that these countries’ capacities to adapt to these pressures vary dramatically, creating deep economic gaps between coffee farmers around the world.

The report, titled “Benchmarking Coffee Production and Climate Risk,” builds on TechnoServe’s 2025 Regenerative Coffee Investment Case and provides a comprehensive view of how climate change is affecting the sector and what can be done to strengthen its resilience.

Methodology: Three Dimensions of Risk and Two Time Horizons

The report draws on global climate data, international risk indexes, and field data from TechnoServe programs. It evaluates the ten countries across three key dimensions: climate risk exposure (the intensity of changes in temperature and rainfall), climate sensitivity (the degree to which the production system is affected by these changes), and adaptive capacity (the readiness of farmers, governments, and the private sector to invest in adaptation solutions). The analysis was conducted under a moderate climate scenario (SSP2-4.5) and examined two time horizons: the near term (2020–2040) and the long term (2040–2060).

Country Differences: Latin America and Indonesia Most Vulnerable, East Africa Most Fragile

The results reveal significant variation in farmers’ ability to face climate challenges and the level of support available to them. Brazil, Peru, and Indonesia showed a high degree of risk exposure with relatively stronger adaptive capacity. Vietnam also scored high on adaptive capacity but was classified in the intermediate vulnerability category.

East African countries such as Ethiopia and Uganda showed lower overall risk exposure but weaker adaptive capacity, with smaller farms, lower yields, and limited support systems. The report noted that smallholder coffee revenue in Uganda is estimated at about $610 per hectare, compared to $4,885 in Vietnam and $4,731 in Brazil. This disparity reflects deep economic fragility in East Africa, despite relatively lower climate exposure.

Country Risk Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Farm Income ($/ha)
Brazil 1.52 3.1 2.6 4,731
Indonesia 2.00 2.4 2.6 –
Peru 1.90 2.8 2.7 –
Vietnam 1.69 2.6 2.7 4,885
Ethiopia 1.28 2.1 2.1 –
Uganda 1.07 2.1 2.1 610

Source: TechnoServe report – Benchmarking Coffee Production and Climate Risk (2026). Scores range from 1 to 4 (1=Low, 4=High).

Types of Risks: Heat Stress, Heavy Rainfall, and Drought

The report identified Indonesia, Peru, Vietnam, and Brazil as facing the most acute challenges from rising temperatures exceeding suitable ranges for coffee cultivation. In these countries, lower elevation further amplifies the impact of heat stress and temperature variability. Indonesia, Peru, and Colombia face the highest risk of damage from excessive rainfall, which can lead to soil erosion, waterlogging, and the spread of pests and diseases.

In contrast, Brazil faces the greatest risk of thermal-water stress, where the combined effect of high temperatures and low rainfall increases drought risk. Specific regions in Kenya and Uganda are also expected to experience rainfall deficits.

Recommendations: Investing in Farms and Infrastructure Is the Solution

One of the report’s central conclusions is that improving farm profitability is among the most effective ways to strengthen resilience against climate risks. The report calls for directing capital across three interconnected categories:

  • Farmer training and technical assistance: To disseminate regenerative agriculture practices that address local thermal and water risks.
  • Farmer capital and financial products: To provide affordable financing for farmers to cover transition costs and bridge income gaps during renovation years.
  • Systemic and infrastructure gaps: Including disaster preparedness, research and development, market systems, and policy reforms.

The report estimates that an annual investment of approximately $560 million over seven years in regenerative agriculture could generate $2.1 billion in additional farm income and $2.6 billion in exports per year across several key coffee-producing countries.

Thirteen Coffee Companies Endorse Findings, But Funding Challenges Loom

According to TechnoServe, 13 coffee companies have endorsed the report’s findings, reflecting what the organization described as growing industry-wide recognition of the need for action. However, the report does not specify whether these companies provided financial support for the study, nor does it detail any climate-adaptation investments they may have made on behalf of coffee farmers.

The call for coordinated investment comes at a challenging time for agricultural development globally. Recent reductions in foreign-aid funding, including cuts affecting international development programs, have contributed to a widening funding gap across the coffee sector.

Experts: The Report Reflects a Daily Reality for Coffee Farmers

Paul Stewart, TechnoServe’s Global Coffee Director and one of the report’s lead authors, said: “The report reflects what TechnoServe teams around the world see every day. Climate change is already affecting the productivity and livelihoods of smallholder coffee farmers, yet many lack the tools they need to respond.”

Frequently Asked Questions About the Climate Risk Report

Q: Which ten countries are covered in the report?

A: Brazil, Indonesia, Peru, Vietnam, Kenya, Honduras, Colombia, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

Q: What are the three dimensions of risk assessment?

A: Climate risk exposure, climate sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

Q: Why are East African countries more fragile despite lower risk exposure?

A: Due to smaller farm sizes, lower yields, weaker support systems, and lower income per hectare, limiting farmers’ ability to invest in adaptation.

Q: What is the estimated investment needed according to the report?

A: Approximately $560 million annually over seven years.

The TechnoServe report confirms that climate challenges facing the coffee sector are not uniform, and that smart, data-driven investments can make a significant difference in the lives of millions of farmers and the sustainability of the global sector.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on the TechnoServe report “Benchmarking Coffee Production and Climate Risk” (June 2026), and the UNIDO ACT Coffee Programme.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 18, 2026