Category: Studies

ICO Coffee Market Report August 2026: Prices Hold Steady

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, August 2026
Date: September 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report August 2026: Prices Hold Steady

Executive Summary

  • The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.29 US cents/lb in August 2026, effectively unchanged from July (287.26 US cents/lb).
  • A mid-month rally, driven by El Niño fears and tight Arabica supplies, was reversed by favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of increased supply.
  • Colombian Milds rose 1.1% to 387.46 US cents/lb, while Other Milds gained 0.7% to 361.31 US cents/lb. Robustas fell 2.2% to 180.63 US cents/lb.
  • US certified Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags, the lowest level since 1999. London Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags, a nine-month high.
  • Global green bean exports rose 6.3% to 10.76 million bags in July, driven entirely by a 32% surge in Robusta shipments.
  • World coffee production is estimated to rise 4.4% to 183.6 million bags in 2025/26, while consumption is projected to decline 0.8%.
  • The global market is projected to record a surplus of 3.0 million bags in 2025/26, the first after four consecutive years of deficit.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.29 US cents per pound in August 2026. This was effectively unchanged from July 2026, when it averaged 287.26 US cents per pound.

The month followed an inverted V-shaped pattern. Prices softened early, then rallied from August 17 to 25. A sharp correction on August 26 and 27 brought the indicator back to its opening level.

The mid-month rally was driven by heightened expectations of a strong El Niño event. These concerns were compounded by historically low certified Arabica stocks. Prices eased toward the end of the month as favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of a substantial surplus reduced the risk premium.

Price Movements and Market Volatility

Colombian Milds and Other Milds recorded modest gains. Colombian Milds rose 1.1% to average 387.46 US cents/lb. Other Milds increased 0.7% to 361.31 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals edged up 0.5% to 322.24 US cents/lb.

In contrast, Robustas declined 2.2% to 180.63 US cents/lb. On the futures markets, London ICE Robusta prices fell 3.0% to 167.63 US cents/lb. New York ICE Arabica prices expanded 0.9% to 313.20 US cents/lb.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets expanded 5.8% to 145.56 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential widened 5.7% to 26.15 US cents/lb.

Volatility declined across most indicators. The intra-day volatility of the I-CIP stood at 13.7% in August, a 1.3 percentage point decrease from July. Colombian Milds volatility fell to 14.6%, while Other Milds dropped to 15.7%.

Brazilian Naturals volatility decreased 1.6 percentage points to 16.3%. Robusta volatility remained stable at 11.0%. At the New York and London futures markets, volatilities were 19.9% and 13.2%, respectively.

Diverging Certified Stocks

Certified stocks diverged sharply between the two futures markets. London certified Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags. This was their highest level in nine months.

In contrast, US certified Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags. This was the lowest level since 1999. It is approximately 68% below the level held a year earlier.

Several factors drove this divergence. El Niño risks raised concerns about future Arabica supplies. At the same time, disruption in Colombia and slower harvesting in Brazil limited near-term availability. A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck western Colombia on August 10, halting operations at the Pacific port of Buenaventura.

Brazil’s harvest also lagged behind its historical pace. Safras & Mercado reported that the 2026/27 harvest was 90% complete as of August 12, against 97% a year earlier and a five-year average of 94%.

Exports by Coffee Group

Global green bean exports totaled 10.76 million bags in July 2026. This was a 6.3% increase from 10.12 million bags in July 2025. It marked the fourth month of positive year-on-year growth in the first 10 months of 2025/26.

The increase was driven entirely by Robustas. Robusta green bean exports surged 32.0% to 4.98 million bags. Vietnam led the increase with a 87.4% jump to 2.4 million bags. Brazil also contributed, with its Robusta exports up 83.7% to 0.86 million bags.

In contrast, all Arabica groups recorded declines. Colombian Milds exports fell 11.1% to 1.04 million bags. Brazilian Naturals decreased 10.0% to 2.46 million bags. Other Milds fell 6.7% to 2.27 million bags.

Total Arabica exports decreased to 5.78 million bags in July 2026. This was down 8.9% from 6.35 million bags in July 2025. As a result, the Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 59.7% from 63.6% a year earlier.

Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60 kg bags)

Coffee Group July 2025 July 2026 Change
Robustas 3.77 4.98 +32.0%
Colombian Milds 1.17 1.04 -11.1%
Other Milds 2.44 2.27 -6.7%
Brazilian Naturals 2.74 2.46 -10.0%

Exports by Region

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 3.3% to 12.23 million bags in July 2026. Two of the four regions recorded increases. Asia & Oceania and South America posted gains, while Africa and the Caribbean, Mexico & Central America recorded declines.

Asia & Oceania led the upturn with a 17.6% increase to 4.38 million bags. Vietnam was the main driver, with exports up 43.7% to 2.83 million bags. The region’s year-to-date exports rose to 43.59 million bags.

South America’s exports increased 3.1% to 4.57 million bags. This was the third consecutive month of positive growth. Brazil drove the increase with a 10.9% rise to 3.06 million bags. However, Colombia partly offset this with a 14.7% decline to 1.01 million bags.

Africa’s exports decreased 6.7% to 1.90 million bags. Ethiopia and Uganda drove the decline, with combined exports falling 15.9% to an estimated 1.52 million bags. Uganda’s decline follows a record performance in 2024/25 and may reflect normalization from an exceptionally high benchmark.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America decreased 15.9% to 1.39 million bags. This was the third consecutive month of negative growth, driven mainly by Mexico and Nicaragua.

Soluble coffee exports decreased 16.7% to 1.4 million bags in July 2026. Roasted bean exports rose 70.6% to 0.07 million bags.

Global Supply and Demand Outlook

The ICO published updated supply and demand statistics on September 10, 2026. World coffee production increased 2.5% to 175.9 million bags in 2024/25. For 2025/26, production is estimated to rise 4.4% to 183.6 million bags.

Arabica production is projected to increase 2.8% to 104.4 million bags in 2025/26. This reflects the higher-yielding phase of the biennial cycle in South America. Robusta output is estimated to jump 6.5% to 79.2 million bags.

South America remains the world’s largest producer, with an estimated output of 84.1 million bags. This represents 45.8% of global production. Asia & Oceania follows with 29.7%, then Africa with 13.6% and the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico with 10.8%.

World coffee consumption increased 4.3% to 182.2 million bags in 2024/25. Growth was mainly driven by North America and Europe. In 2025/26, consumption is estimated to decline 0.8%, partly reflecting normalization after unusually strong growth.

Europe remained the largest consuming region, accounting for 30.1% of global consumption in 2024/25. South America is estimated to overtake North America as the third-largest consuming region in 2025/26.

Following four consecutive years of deficit from 2021/22 to 2024/25, the global coffee market is projected to record a surplus of 3.0 million bags in 2025/26.

Table 2: World Supply, Demand and Balance (million 60 kg bags)

Item 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26
Arabica Production 101.1 101.6 104.4
Robusta Production 70.5 74.4 79.2
Total Production 171.6 175.9 183.6
Consumption 174.6 182.2 180.6
Balance -3.0 -6.3 +3.0

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in August 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 287.29 US cents/lb in August 2026, effectively unchanged from July 2026 (287.26 US cents/lb).

What caused the mid-month price rally and subsequent correction?

A rally from August 17 to 25 was driven by El Niño fears and tight Arabica supplies. It was reversed by favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of a substantial surplus.

Why did certified coffee stocks diverge?

US Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags (lowest since 1999) due to El Niño risks and supply disruptions. London Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags.

How did coffee exports perform in July 2026?

Global green bean exports rose 6.3% to 10.76 million bags. Robusta exports surged 32%, while all Arabica groups declined.

What is the global supply and demand outlook?

World production is estimated at 183.6 million bags in 2025/26 (+4.4%), with consumption at 180.6 million bags (-0.8%). This results in a surplus of 3.0 million bags.

What was the key development in certified stocks?

US certified Arabica stocks fell to their lowest level since 1999 at 0.24 million bags, while London Robusta stocks reached a nine-month high of 0.83 million bags.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, August 2026 | Date: September 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026: Prices Surge 15.4% on Supply Fears

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, July 2026
Date: August 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026: Prices Surge 15.4% on Supply Fears

Executive Summary

  • The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, up 15.4% from June, with Arabica prices outpacing Robusta.
  • Record daily gains of 8.2% on July 6 and 9.3% on July 9 marked the largest increases in 21 years.
  • Colombian Milds rose 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb; Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb; Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.
  • US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024, tightening immediately deliverable supplies.
  • ICE margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures surged from $5,685 to over $21,000 in early July, reducing liquidity and amplifying volatility.
  • El Niño probability reached 97% through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event, heightening supply concerns.
  • Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest was only 64% complete by July 15, below the 5‑year average of 70%, due to wet conditions.
  • Global green bean exports rose 0.8% to 10.48 million bags in June, driven by Brazilian Naturals (+7.1%).

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents per pound in July 2026. This was a 15.4% increase from June 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta prices. The Colombian Milds increased 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb. The Other Milds increased 16.5% to 358.65 US cents/lb. Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.

The widening price gap was reflected in higher differentials. The arbitrage between New York and London futures markets expanded by 36.4% to 137.61 US cents/lb.

Volatility also rose sharply. On July 6, the I-CIP rose 8.2% in a single day. On July 9, it rose another 9.3%. Together, these were the largest daily increases observed in 21 years.

Several factors contributed to the price surge. Weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tightening Arabica supplies all played a role. US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest level since January 2024.

ICE Margin Requirements and Market Liquidity

In response to heightened market risk, ICE Futures U.S. increased margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures multiple times in early July. The margin rate for the September 2026 contract rose from $5,685 before July to $14,715 on July 6, and then to $21,116 on July 9.

It was subsequently reduced to $14,606 on July 24. However, it remained well above its pre-July level. These adjustments affected financing requirements, market participation, and liquidity.

Higher margins require participants to provide more collateral. This reduces leverage and may discourage highly leveraged positions. It also strengthens protection against losses if a participant defaults.

However, it may also force positions to be closed. This reduces liquidity and can temporarily amplify price movements. The sharp price increases on July 6 and 9 may have been amplified by these liquidity effects.

Systematic and momentum-driven buying also played a role. Short covering, fueled by concerns over declining ICE-certified stocks, reinforced the upward price pressure. Thin liquidity made the market more susceptible to sharp movements.

Weather and El Niño Concerns

Weather factors were a key driver of July’s price movements. Unusually wet conditions in parts of Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying operations. This raised concerns about coffee quality.

On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was only 64% complete as of July 15. This compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%.

Wet conditions also caused uneven maturation. Multiple flowering cycles led to cherries at different stages of ripeness. This required more selective picking and sorting, making harvesting slower and more costly.

Meanwhile, the El Niño outlook strengthened significantly. On July 9, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97% probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027.

There was also an 81% probability of a very strong event during October-December 2026. This could rank among the most intense El Niño events recorded since 1950.

This outlook pointed to increased risks of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies. These could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and 2027.

Certified Stocks and Supply Tightness

London certified Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags in July. In contrast, US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags. This was their lowest level since January 2024.

This divergence indicated significantly tighter immediately deliverable supplies of Arabica. This supported higher Arabica prices relative to Robusta. It also contributed to the widening differentials between the two markets.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 0.98 million bags on July 31. This decline signaled limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions. It amplified the market’s response to weather and El Niño concerns.

Table 1: ICO Indicator Prices and Futures (US cents/lb)

Indicator June 2026 July 2026 Change
ICO Composite 248.90 287.26 +15.4%
Colombian Milds 324.60 383.39 +18.1%
Other Milds 307.83 358.65 +16.5%
Brazilian Naturals 272.01 320.69 +17.9%
Robustas 169.39 184.78 +9.1%
New York ICE (Arabica) 256.75 310.34 +20.9%
London ICE (Robusta) 155.90 172.73 +10.8%

Green Bean Exports: Mixed Performance by Group

Global green bean exports totaled 10.48 million bags in June 2026. This was a 0.8% increase compared to 10.4 million bags in June 2025.

Brazilian Naturals exports rose 7.1% to 2.76 million bags. This was the first month of positive growth after 15 consecutive months of decline. The increase was driven by Brazil, where exports rose from 1.82 million to 2.01 million bags.

Colombian Milds exports increased 1.2% to 1.09 million bags. This was the group’s first positive growth in the current coffee year. Kenya was the main driver, with exports rising 39.2% to 0.11 million bags.

Other Milds exports fell 1.3% to 2.66 million bags. Nicaragua and Mexico were the main drivers of the decline, with combined exports falling 42.9% to 0.34 million bags.

Robusta exports fell 2.1% to 3.97 million bags. This was only the second instance of negative growth in the first nine months of the coffee year. Indonesia and Uganda drove the decline, with combined exports falling 36.1% to 0.98 million bags.

Total Arabica exports rose 2.5% to 6.51 million bags. However, the Arabicas’ share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 60.4% from 63.7% a year earlier.

Table 2: Green Bean Exports by Group (million 60‑kg bags)

Coffee Group June 2025 June 2026 Change
Robustas 4.05 3.97 -2.1%
Colombian Milds 1.08 1.09 +1.2%
Other Milds 2.70 2.66 -1.3%
Brazilian Naturals 2.57 2.76 +7.1%

Exports by Region: South America Leads

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 0.3% to 11.88 million bags in June 2026. Exports declined in three of the four regions. South America recorded the only increase.

South America’s exports rose 17.3% to 4.8 million bags. Brazil led the increase, with exports up 17.4% to 3.09 million bags. Peru also contributed, with exports rising 50% to 0.49 million bags.

Asia & Oceania exports fell 2.4% to 3.63 million bags. Indonesia led the decline, with exports falling 33.3% to 0.58 million bags. However, India and Vietnam partly offset this with increases of 14.6% and 6.1% respectively.

Africa’s exports fell 13.5% to 1.79 million bags. Uganda was the main driver, with exports falling 30.6% to an estimated 0.7 million bags.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America fell 15.3% to 1.66 million bags. Mexico and Nicaragua drove the decline, with combined exports falling 44% to 0.41 million bags.

Soluble coffee exports fell 1.3% to 1.35 million bags. Roasted bean exports fell 32.3% to 0.05 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in July 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, a 15.4% increase from June 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

What caused the record daily price gains in July?

On July 6 and 9, the I-CIP rose 8.2% and 9.3% respectively, marking the largest daily increases in 21 years. This was driven by El Niño fears, falling stocks, wet weather in Brazil, and ICE margin hikes affecting liquidity.

How did ICE margin requirements affect the market?

ICE raised margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures from $5,685 to over $21,000 in early July. This reduced liquidity, forced position closures, and amplified price volatility.

What happened to certified coffee stocks in July?

US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024. London Robusta stocks rose slightly to 0.69 million bags. The divergence tightened Arabica supplies.

What is the El Niño outlook?

There is a 97% probability of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event during October-December 2026, potentially one of the most intense on record.

How is Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest progressing?

As of July 15, the harvest was only 64% complete, compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%, due to wet conditions that slowed harvesting and drying.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, July 2026 | Date: August 2026

Workplace Coffee Machines May Raise Bad Cholesterol

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Uppsala University / Chalmers University of Technology / Nutrition, Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases journal
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 24, 2026

Swedish Study: Workplace Coffee Machines May Raise Bad Cholesterol

  • Swedish study reveals workplace coffee machines may produce natural compounds that raise bad cholesterol.
  • The main compounds are cafestol and kahweol, belonging to the diterpene group.
  • Traditional machines with metal filters produced elevated levels of these compounds.
  • Machines using liquid coffee concentrate recorded low levels similar to filtered coffee.
  • Paper-filtered and instant coffee contain very low levels of these compounds.
  • Researchers recommend those drinking several cups daily choose paper-filtered or instant coffee.

A recent Swedish scientific study has found that some common workplace coffee machines produce elevated levels of natural fatty compounds. These compounds may contribute to higher levels of bad cholesterol in the blood.

The study was published in the journal Nutrition, Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases. It was led by a team from Uppsala University in collaboration with Chalmers University of Technology, under the direction of researcher David Iggman.

What Are the Compounds That Raise Cholesterol?

The researchers focused on two natural compounds found in coffee: cafestol and kahweol. These belong to a group known as diterpenes. It has long been known that these compounds are present in higher amounts in unfiltered or boiled coffee. They can raise levels of LDL or “bad” cholesterol while slightly lowering HDL or “good” cholesterol. Elevated LDL is linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease over time.

How Was the Study Conducted?

The team analyzed samples from 14 coffee machines located in different workplaces, mostly healthcare facilities. Samples were collected over multiple days and compared with other common brewing methods, including paper-filtered drip coffee, French press, espresso, and boiled coffee.

Cafestol and Kahweol Levels by Brewing Method
Brewing Method Compound Level
Traditional machines with metal filters (ground coffee) High
Machines using liquid coffee concentrate Low (similar to filtered)
Paper-filtered drip coffee Very low
Instant coffee Very low
French press High
Espresso Relatively high
Boiled coffee High

Key Findings

Results showed that traditional machines using ground coffee beans and metal filters produced significantly higher amounts of these compounds than paper-filtered coffee. In contrast, machines using liquid coffee concentrate recorded much lower levels, similar to those found in well-filtered coffee.

Lead researcher David Iggman noted that the impact of these compounds depends largely on the amount of coffee consumed daily. He emphasized that coffee remains a beverage associated with several health benefits. Proper filtration, he added, plays a crucial role in reducing the presence of these substances.

Researcher Recommendations

The researchers recommended that people who drink several cups a day opt for paper-filtered coffee or instant coffee. Both contain very low levels of these compounds.

The findings highlight the importance of brewing method, particularly in workplace settings where many people rely on automatic coffee machines on a daily basis.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are cafestol and kahweol?They are natural compounds found in coffee, belonging to the diterpene group. They are present in higher amounts in unfiltered coffee and can raise LDL cholesterol.

Which type of coffee is safest for cholesterol?Paper-filtered coffee and instant coffee contain the lowest levels of these compounds, making them the best choice for those concerned about cholesterol levels.

Are workplace coffee machines dangerous to health?Not necessarily, but the study suggests that some machines using metal filters may produce higher levels of cholesterol-raising compounds. Paper filtration significantly reduces these compounds.

Should I stop drinking coffee?No. The study confirms that coffee remains a beverage associated with multiple health benefits. The solution is to choose a brewing method that reduces these compounds, such as paper filtration or instant coffee.

How much coffee is considered safe?The impact of these compounds depends on daily consumption. Researchers recommend those drinking several cups daily choose paper-filtered or instant coffee to minimize risk.

Does instant coffee contain cafestol?No, instant coffee does not contain cafestol or kahweol, making it a safe choice regarding cholesterol.

Author: Qahwa World (based on Uppsala University study)
Source: Uppsala University / Chalmers University of Technology / Nutrition, Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases journal
Publication Date: August 24, 2026

Coffee Not a Heart Risk: AHA Sets Safe Caffeine Limit

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: American Heart Association / Circulation journal
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 10, 2026

Coffee Not a Heart Risk: AHA Sets Safe Caffeine Limit

  • AHA recommends up to 400mg of caffeine daily for most adults.
  • That equals about 5 cups of brewed coffee (8 oz per cup).
  • Plain black coffee linked to lower risk of type 2 diabetes.
  • Filtered coffee better for cholesterol; unfiltered may raise LDL.
  • Energy drinks are not like coffee and may cause BP spikes and arrhythmias.
  • Pregnant women and those with palpitations or uncontrolled BP should consult doctors.

Cardiologists have long treated coffee with caution. The reason was caffeine’s temporary effect on heart rate and blood pressure. However, this position is beginning to change.

According to a new scientific statement from the American Heart Association, moderate caffeine consumption appears safe for most adults. This applies especially to coffee. It may even be linked to cardiovascular benefits for some people.

Dr. Kelley Chen interventional cardiologist at Henry Ford Health’s Genesis Heart Center, noted that caffeine has long had a bad reputation when it comes to heart health.

What Is the Safe Amount for Most Adults?

The statement sets 400mg of caffeine daily as a typical upper limit for most healthy adults. This equals about five 8-ounce cups of regular brewed coffee. However, caffeine content varies depending on coffee type, preparation method, and cup size.

Regular brewed coffee contains about 9.4 to 20.6mg of caffeine per fluid ounce. This means the amount can vary significantly. The evidence reviewed suggests the clearest results are linked to coffee itself. But adding large amounts of sugar and flavored syrups may reduce any potential health benefits.

Recommended Caffeine Limits by Source
Source Approximate Caffeine Note
Daily upper limit 400 mg For most healthy adults
Brewed coffee (8 oz) 75 – 165 mg Varies by type and preparation
Instant coffee (8 oz) 30 – 90 mg Lower caffeine than brewed
Espresso (single shot) 45 – 75 mg Higher concentration per ounce
Energy drinks (can) Varies widely May contain very high doses

Blood Pressure: Different Effects by Consumption Level

Coffee can raise blood pressure in the short term. However, long-term consumption results appear more complex. The statement cites research finding that one to three cups of caffeinated coffee daily was linked to increased hypertension risk among people with ideal blood pressure. In contrast, drinking more than three cups daily was linked to lower hypertension risk in some studies.

Type 2 Diabetes: Black Coffee Showed Strongest Link

For type 2 diabetes, the statement reviews evidence linking black caffeinated coffee consumption to lower diabetes risk. This applies when consumed without cream, sweeteners, or flavorings. However, caffeine may reduce insulin sensitivity in the short term. Therefore, researchers caution that the protective association may come from other compounds in coffee, not caffeine alone.

Cholesterol: Filtered Coffee Appears Better

Brewing method matters for cholesterol too. Randomized trial data indicates that cafestol, a compound in coffee, can raise LDL cholesterol levels. Cafestol is found in unfiltered coffee like espresso, French press, Turkish coffee, and boiled coffee. Most of this compound is removed when using paper filters. It is also absent from instant coffee, according to the statement.

Heart Rhythm: No Increase in Atrial Fibrillation, But a Note

The AHA statement indicates that research analyses found one to three cups of caffeinated coffee daily were not linked to increased risk of atrial fibrillation or heart rhythm disorders. However, randomized trials also found a link between coffee caffeine and increased premature ventricular contractions. These are extra heartbeats generally not dangerous. However, they may cause palpitations or anxiety in some people.

The Most Important Warning: Energy Drinks Are Not Like Coffee

A large portion of research focuses on coffee as the world’s most consumed caffeinated beverage. However, caffeinated energy drinks have not received the same level of study. Therefore, caffeine recommendations for coffee should not necessarily apply to all caffeine sources.

The AHA also warns that some concentrated energy shots may contain much higher caffeine per ounce than regular coffee. Their consumption has been linked to increased risk of high blood pressure and heart rhythm disorders.

Conclusion: What This Means for Coffee Lovers

For most adults, the AHA indicates that up to 400mg of caffeine daily is generally safe. Coffee consumption may be linked to lower risk of heart disease, stroke, and heart failure in some people. The potential benefits are more strongly associated with unsweetened coffee. Sugar and high-calorie additives can change the nutritional profile.

People with heart palpitations, sleep disorders, pregnant women, and those with uncontrolled high blood pressure should discuss appropriate caffeine amounts with their doctor.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the safe daily caffeine limit?AHA recommends 400mg of caffeine daily as an upper limit for most healthy adults, equal to about 5 cups of brewed coffee.

Is coffee good for blood pressure?Coffee may temporarily raise blood pressure, but studies suggest drinking over 3 cups daily may be linked to lower long-term hypertension risk.

What’s the difference between filtered and unfiltered coffee for cholesterol?Unfiltered coffee contains cafestol, which may raise LDL cholesterol. Paper filters remove most of it, and instant coffee contains none.

Are energy drinks as safe as coffee?No. Energy drinks contain much higher caffeine per ounce and have been linked to high blood pressure and heart rhythm disorders. They are not a substitute for coffee.

Does coffee cause heart palpitations?Coffee may cause premature ventricular contractions in some people. These extra beats are generally not dangerous but may cause palpitations or anxiety.

Who should consult a doctor about coffee?Pregnant women, people with palpitations, sleep disorders, or uncontrolled high blood pressure should discuss appropriate caffeine intake with their doctor.

Author: Qahwa World (based on AHA scientific statement)
Source: American Heart Association / Circulation journal
Publication Date: August 10, 2026

Study Finds Ants May Help Suppress Coffee Berry Borer

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: University of Michigan / Ecology journal
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 2, 2026

Study Finds Ants May Help Suppress Coffee Berry Borer

  • Small ants evict coffee berry borers from coffee fruits and use their cavities for reproduction.
  • This reproductive benefit may support more diverse ant communities on coffee plants.
  • Large ants eat the borers, while small ants root them out of their homes in coffee berries.
  • The discovery was made by Jonathan Morris during graduate research in Chiapas, Mexico.
  • The study highlights the importance of observational science in ecological discovery.
  • Findings published in The Scientific Naturalist section of the journal Ecology.
  • Research conducted at a farm station established by University of Michigan ecologists.

Ants are known allies in the fight against coffee berry borers. These pests cause significant damage to coffee crops worldwide. However, a new discovery reveals a previously unknown dimension of this natural pest control.

Jonathan Morris, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, made the discovery while studying coffee plants in Chiapas, Mexico. He observed that small ants evict borers from coffee fruits and then use the borer-made cavities to rear their own young.

A New Dimension of Pest Control

Ecologists have long known that large ants eat coffee berry borers. They also know that these ants stymie the pests’ efforts to colonize coffee plants. Small ants can root the borers out of their homes in the coffee fruits. However, what happens next was unknown until now.

Morris discovered that small ant species then use the habitats in the fruits for their own reproduction. This is the first documented evidence of ants taking advantage of the niche construction created by the berry borer.

“In terms of pest control, this is primarily a good thing because it’s benefiting the ants in terms of their populations and fitness. The ants gain this reproductive benefit that’s originally created by the coffee pest. And this might actually help to maintain more diverse ant communities directly on the coffee plants.”

— Jonathan R. Morris, Postdoctoral Researcher, UNAM

From Field Samples to Evidence

Morris started this project in 2016. At the time, he was working at a research station in Chiapas, Mexico. The station was established by professors Ivette Perfecto and John Vandermeer from the University of Michigan. Perfecto has been studying agricultural ecosystems on coffee farms in Central America for 25 years.

While conducting research for a different project, Morris collected samples of coffee berries. These berries had been infiltrated by borers and then evicted by ants. He kept the ants in vials and thought about studying them later. Years later, he realized that this behavior had never been documented before.

“I had all these ants in vials that I had found nesting in coffee fruits and told myself, ‘Maybe I’ll do something with this at some point,'” Morris said. “Then, years later, I got to thinking about it and, as far as I know, this is the first time anyone’s documented or reported the ants taking advantage of the niche construction by the berry borer and using it to reproduce themselves.”

Study Overview
Element Details
Lead Researcher Jonathan R. Morris (UNAM, formerly U-M)
Study Location Chiapas, Mexico
Research Started 2016
Photographic Evidence 2025
Publication Ecology journal (The Scientific Naturalist section)
Key Finding Small ants use borer-made cavities for reproduction
Broader Impact May support diverse ant communities on coffee plants

Observation Still Drives Discovery

The study has implications beyond ecology and pest control. It also underscores the importance of being in nature and observing what it is doing. This is especially relevant in the age of data science and artificial intelligence.

Morris noted that funders currently emphasize AI and big data. However, before these tools existed, scientists made discoveries by going out into nature and observing. He cited Charles Darwin and Alexander von Humboldt as examples of this tradition.

“But if it wasn’t for having funding for basic science and doing these types of observations, I wouldn’t be sitting here talking about them,” Morris said.

Implications for Coffee Farming

The discovery has significant implications for coffee farming. Coffee berry borers are among the most destructive pests affecting coffee crops. They cause millions of dollars in damage annually.

Ants are already valued as natural allies in pest control. This new evidence suggests their role may be even more important than previously understood. Encouraging diverse ant communities on coffee farms could enhance natural pest suppression and reduce reliance on chemical pesticides.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the study discover about ants and coffee berry borers?Small ants evict coffee berry borers from coffee fruits and then use the borer-made cavities to rear their own young.

Why is this discovery important?It shows that ants gain a reproductive benefit from the pests, which may support more diverse and stable ant communities on coffee plants.

Where was the research conducted?The research was conducted in Chiapas, Mexico, at a research station established by University of Michigan ecologists.

Who led the study?Jonathan R. Morris, now a postdoctoral researcher at UNAM, led the study while he was a graduate student at the University of Michigan.

How does this help coffee farmers?It highlights the importance of maintaining diverse ant communities on coffee farms to enhance natural pest control and reduce pesticide use.

Where were the findings published?The findings were published in The Scientific Naturalist section of the journal Ecology.

Author: Editorial Team (based on University of Michigan research)
Source: Qahwa World
Publication Date: August 2, 2026

Optimal Coffee Amount by Age: What Large Scientific Studies Say

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: UK Biobank, Nurses’ Health Study, American Heart Association
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 1, 2026This article explores coffee consumption by age based on major health studies.

Optimal Coffee Amount by Age: What Large Scientific Studies Say

  • Large observational studies link moderate coffee consumption to lower risk of chronic diseases.
  • These findings are associations, not proof of causation, and vary by age, health, and genetics.
  • After 30: 3-5 cups daily associated with lower risk of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer.
  • After 40: 3 small cups daily linked to “healthy aging” for midlife women.
  • After 50: 3-5 cups (400 mg caffeine) safe for most healthy adults, may reduce heart failure risk.
  • After 60: Coffee linked to lower risk of physical frailty and cellular renewal processes.
  • Individual response varies based on genetics, health status, and additives (sugar and cream).

Coffee is no longer just a morning wake-up drink. Over the past two decades, large observational studies have gathered consistent evidence that moderate consumption may be linked to lower risk of several chronic diseases.

These potential benefits include liver disease, dementia, and certain aspects of healthy aging. However, these remain associations, not proof of causation. Benefits and risks vary significantly by age, health status, genetics, and individual caffeine sensitivity.

Practical Summary: Optimal Amount by Age Group
Age Group Optimal Amount (cups/day) Key Potential Benefits Main Sources
After 30 2-5 Liver protection (cirrhosis, cancer) UK Biobank (355k participants)
After 40 2-3 (women) Healthy aging Nurses’ Health Study (47.5k)
After 50 3-5 Heart health (heart failure, stroke) American Heart Association
After 60 2-4 Reduced frailty, cellular renewal Observational studies on elderly

After 30: Potential Liver and Brain Protection

Long-term risk factors begin to form during this stage. A massive recent study from UK Biobank involving about 355,000 participants found coffee consumption linked to lower risk of liver cirrhosis, liver cancer, and liver-related deaths.

Benefits appeared starting from one to two cups daily. They increased with quantity and were strongest at 3-5 cups or more. Interestingly, the positive effect was also observed with decaffeinated coffee. This suggests that other compounds (like polyphenols) play an important role alongside caffeine.

For the brain, multiple studies link 2-3 cups daily to lower risk of dementia or cognitive decline in later life. Proposed mechanisms include anti-inflammatory effects, improved insulin sensitivity, and reduced accumulation of harmful proteins.

After 40: Potential Benefits for Midlife Women

Perimenopause involves significant hormonal changes affecting physical and cognitive health. The Harvard Nurses’ Health Study, which followed about 47,500 women for over three decades, found that women consuming about three small cups of caffeinated coffee in midlife were more likely to reach age 70 with “healthy aging.”

This includes freedom from major chronic diseases, preserved physical function, mental health, and absence of cognitive impairment. Decaffeinated coffee and tea did not show the same association as strongly. At this stage, some women may become more sensitive to caffeine. If coffee causes anxiety, palpitations, or sleep disruption, reducing the amount is advisable.

After 50: Heart Health and Safety of Moderate Consumption

Old beliefs linking coffee to inevitable heart damage are no longer supported by modern evidence. Recent reviews and meta-analyses, including data from the American Heart Association, indicate that most healthy adults can safely consume up to 3-5 cups (or about 400 mg caffeine) daily.

This level is often linked to lower risk of certain cardiovascular diseases like heart failure and stroke in observational studies. However, the optimal amount remains highly individual. It depends on sleep quality, blood pressure, and personal physician recommendations.

After 60: Supporting Muscle Function and Reducing Frailty Risk

With advancing age, the risk of losing muscle mass and physical frailty increases. Recent observational studies on elderly individuals link higher coffee consumption to lower likelihood of frailty, including weight loss, muscle weakness, exhaustion, slow walking speed, and low physical activity.

Mechanistically, animal studies show that coffee stimulates autophagy—a natural cellular renewal process that removes damaged components—in muscles, liver, and heart. This may contribute to preserving muscle tissue, though human evidence remains indirect.

What Makes Coffee Beneficial? How Does Response Vary?

Potential benefits come from a combination of caffeine and its effects on the nervous system and metabolism, antioxidants and polyphenols (such as chlorogenic acid), and other compounds affecting inflammation, insulin, and cellular renewal processes.

However, individual response varies greatly. Genetics (such as variations in the CYP1A2 enzyme) determine caffeine metabolism rate. Health status, additives (sugar and cream often reduce benefits), and preparation method also affect health impacts.

Practical Conclusion: No Universal Optimal Dose

There is no single “universal optimal dose” for everyone at every age. Current evidence suggests that moderate consumption (generally 2-4 cups daily for most healthy individuals) is linked to several potential benefits, especially for liver, brain, and healthy aging.

However, keep in mind that these are associations, not proof of causation. Those with anxiety disorders, insomnia, certain heart conditions, pregnant women, or those taking specific medications may need to limit or avoid coffee. It is always best to consider personal tolerance and consult a doctor if you have any chronic condition.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many cups of coffee are suitable for those over 30?The UK Biobank study suggests 3-5 cups daily are linked to lower liver cirrhosis and liver cancer risk, with benefits starting from two cups daily.

Is coffee beneficial for midlife women?Yes. The Nurses’ Health Study found that 3 small cups daily of caffeinated coffee were linked to greater odds of healthy aging after age 70.

Does coffee harm the heart?Modern evidence, including the American Heart Association, indicates that 3-5 cups daily (400 mg caffeine) are safe for most healthy adults and may reduce heart failure and stroke risk.

What are the benefits of coffee for seniors?Coffee is linked to lower risk of physical frailty (muscle loss and exhaustion) through stimulating cellular renewal processes (autophagy).

Is decaffeinated coffee also beneficial?Yes. In the liver study, the positive effect was also observed with decaffeinated coffee, suggesting a role for other compounds like polyphenols.

Is there an ideal dose that fits everyone?No. Individual response varies based on genetics, health status, and personal tolerance. It’s best to consult a doctor for chronic conditions.

Author: Qahwa World (based on modern scientific evidence)
Source: UK Biobank, Nurses’ Health Study, American Heart Association, and multiple scientific sources
Publication Date: August 1, 2026

Spent Coffee Grounds Converted Into Raw Material for Biofuels

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Universitat Rovira i Virgili / Biomass and Bioenergy journal
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 27, 2026

Spent Coffee Grounds Converted Into Raw Material for Biofuels

  • Researchers developed an efficient method to extract oil from spent coffee grounds for biodiesel production.
  • Optimal conditions: 45°C for 60 minutes with 35 ml hexane per gram of dry residue.
  • The process recovers approximately 90% of available oils from coffee grounds.
  • The extracted oil has very low impurity content of 0.3% compared to 3.9% in traditional methods.
  • The remaining lignocellulosic material can be used for bioethanol, lactic acid, and sustainable aviation fuel.
  • Global coffee production generates approximately 10 million tonnes of waste annually.
  • The process supports circular economy and renewable fuel development for hard-to-electrify sectors.

Spent coffee grounds can have a second life. They are typically thrown away after brewing. However, researchers have found a way to extract oil from them efficiently. This oil can serve as a raw material for producing biodiesel.

A study by the Universitat Rovira i Virgili has evaluated how to extract oil from coffee grounds. The process preserves the rest of the plant material. This allows it to be utilized in other processes as well.

The Research Study

The research was published in Biomass and Bioenergy journal. It focuses on spent coffee grounds as an abundant waste product. Global coffee bean production stands at around 10 million tonnes per year. Only a small proportion ends up in the brewed coffee. The remainder becomes solid waste in the form of coffee grounds.

Coffee grounds contain approximately 15% lipids. These fats can serve as a basis for producing biodiesel. The research team studied how three key factors influence oil extraction: temperature, processing time, and solvent-to-coffee-grounds ratio. They used n-hexane as the solvent and applied an experimental design to analyze the combined effects.

Optimal Conditions for Oil Extraction from Coffee Grounds
Parameter Optimal Value
Temperature 45°C
Processing Time 60 minutes
Solvent-to-Coffee Ratio 35 ml hexane per gram of dry residue
Oil Recovery Approximately 90% of available oils
Oil Impurity Content 0.3%

Key Findings

The research team, comprising Jorge F. Romero, Alberto Tampieri, Daniel Montané, Magdalena Constantí, and Francesc Medina, found optimal conditions at 45°C for 60 minutes. The ratio of 35 millilitres of hexane per gram of dry residue proved most effective. With these parameters, the process recovers approximately 90% of the oil that can be obtained with Soxhlet extraction.

Soxhlet is a laboratory technique widely used as a reference. It offers high yields but requires more time and energy. It is not as suitable for industrial applications. The optimized process yields oil with very low impurity content of 0.3%. In contrast, Soxhlet yields oil with 3.9% impurities. The fatty acid profile remained stable under different test conditions. It was dominated by linoleic and palmitic acids. These components indicate the oil’s potential for biodiesel production.

Beyond Oil: Preserving the Lignocellulosic Matrix

“In our study, we also demonstrate that extracting the oil does not mean that the rest of the material cannot be used for something else,” pointed out Francesc Medina. One of the research objectives was to preserve the lignocellulosic matrix. This matrix is made up of components such as cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin.

These ingredients can be used to obtain other products. These include bioethanol, lactic acid, polyhydroxyalkanoates, precursors for sustainable aviation fuels, and phenolic compounds. The extraction process not only recovers oils but also acts as a pretreatment. The fats in the residue can prevent solvents or catalysts from accessing the rest of the biomass. Removing this barrier leaves the fat-free residue in a better state for subsequent use.

Comparison with Other Methods

The research team compared their method with ultrasound- and microwave-assisted extraction. These alternatives can accelerate the initial extraction. However, they do not offer a sufficient advantage in terms of oil quality, overall efficiency, energy demand, and scalability. The batch process with n-hexane under moderate conditions appears to be a better, more balanced option. It is more suitable for integration into a biorefining strategy.

Circular Economy and Renewable Fuels

The research forms part of efforts to develop techniques for a circular economy. It addresses the need to develop renewable fuels for hard-to-electrify sectors, such as heavy transport. By using every part of the coffee grounds, the researchers transform a typically underused waste product into various energy vectors and bio-based chemical products. This reduces the environmental impact associated with its accumulation.

Daniel Montané explained that this approach paves the way for the sustainable production of biofuels. The research demonstrates how coffee waste can become a valuable resource rather than an environmental burden.

Implications for the Coffee Industry

This research has significant implications for the coffee industry. It offers a way to reduce waste and generate additional value from coffee production. Coffee roasters, coffee shops, and instant coffee producers could potentially benefit from this technology. The process can be scaled for industrial applications, turning waste into a revenue stream.

The circular economy approach aligns with growing consumer demand for sustainable practices. Coffee companies could enhance their sustainability credentials by adopting such technologies. The research also contributes to reducing the environmental impact of coffee production.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are spent coffee grounds?Spent coffee grounds are the solid waste left over after brewing coffee. They contain approximately 15% lipids that can be extracted for biodiesel production.

How much oil can be extracted from coffee grounds?The optimized process recovers approximately 90% of the available oils from spent coffee grounds.

What are the optimal extraction conditions?The optimal conditions are 45°C for 60 minutes with 35 ml of hexane per gram of dry residue.

What happens to the remaining coffee grounds after oil extraction?The remaining lignocellulosic material can be used to produce bioethanol, lactic acid, sustainable aviation fuels, and other valuable products.

How does this research support sustainability?It promotes a circular economy by turning coffee waste into valuable products, reducing environmental impact and supporting renewable fuel production.

How much coffee waste is generated globally?Global coffee production generates approximately 10 million tonnes of waste annually, with only a small portion ending up in the brewed coffee.

Author: Editorial Team (based on URV research)
Source: Universitat Rovira i Virgili / Biomass and Bioenergy journal
Publication Date: July 27, 2026

USDA Report: Record World Coffee Production in 2026/27

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) – Coffee: World Markets and Trade
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 23, 2026This article covers important findings from the world coffee market report 2026.

USDA Report: Record World Coffee Production in 2026/27

  • World coffee production forecast at a record 189.7 million bags in 2026/27, up 10.8 million from the previous year.
  • Brazil leads the surge with a record 71.9 million bags, driven by a 9.5 million bag Arabica rebound.
  • Global consumption rises to a record 179.7 million bags, with the European Union and United States leading gains.
  • World bean exports forecast at a record 131.4 million bags, up 11.9 million from 2025/26.
  • Ending stocks rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags.
  • Coffee prices have fallen 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies become available.
  • Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Uganda all post production increases, while Indonesia declines.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service released its latest Coffee: World Markets and Trade report. Global coffee production for 2026/27 is forecast at a record 189.7 million bags. This represents an increase of 10.8 million bags from the previous year.

Record output in Brazil, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Vietnam drives this growth. These gains more than compensate for losses in India and Indonesia. World coffee bean exports are expected to reach a record 131.4 million bags. Global consumption is forecast to rise to a record 179.7 million bags.

World Production at Record High

World coffee production for 2026/27 is forecast 10.8 million bags higher than the previous year. Production is expected to reach a record 189.7 million bags. Brazil accounts for the largest share with a record 71.9 million bags. The rebound in Arabica production is particularly notable after five years of underperformance.

World Coffee Production 2026/27 (Million 60-kg Bags)
Category 2025/26 2026/27 Forecast Change
Total Production 178.8 189.7 +10.8
Arabica Production 94.4 105.9 +11.4
Robusta Production 84.4 83.8 -0.6

Brazil: Record Production and Arabica Rebound

Brazil’s combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast at a record 71.9 million bags in 2026/27. This represents an increase of 8.9 million bags from the previous year. Arabica output is expected to rebound 9.5 million bags to 47.5 million, ending a five-year period of underperformance due to adverse weather conditions.

Timely rainfall during flowering in September and October ensured favorable fruit development. Near-record yields were achieved in Minas Gerais, where over 70% of Arabica coffee is grown. Robusta production is forecast to retreat 600,000 bags to 24.4 million following last year’s record harvest. Cooler temperatures combined with elevated rainfall lowered yields in Espirito Santo, where approximately 70% of Robusta is grown.

Brazil accounts for nearly 40% of world production and exerts significant influence on global supplies and prices. Brazil’s role in Arabica markets is even more pronounced, typically supplying between 40% and 50% depending on the biennial crop production cycle.

Brazil Coffee Production Outlook 2026/27
Category 2025/26 2026/27 Forecast Change
Arabica Production 38.0 million bags 47.5 million bags +9.5 million
Robusta Production 25.0 million bags 24.4 million bags -0.6 million
Total Production 63.0 million bags 71.9 million bags +8.9 million
Bean Exports 34.0 million bags 45.0 million bags +11.0 million
Ending Stocks 3.9 million bags 4.4 million bags +0.5 million

Global Consumption and Trade

World coffee bean exports are forecast 11.9 million bags higher to a record 131.4 million bags. This is driven by higher output in major producing countries. Global consumption is expected to rise to a record 179.7 million bags. The largest gains are occurring in the European Union and the United States.

Ending stocks are expected to rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags. This follows a significant drawdown between 2020/21 and 2024/25, when global ending stocks fell 15.5 million bags. While stocks are recovering, they remain below the long-term average.

World Coffee Summary 2026/27 (Million 60-kg Bags)
Category 2025/26 2026/27 Forecast Change
World Production 178.8 189.7 +10.8
World Bean Exports 119.5 131.4 +11.9
World Consumption 173.5 179.7 +6.3
Ending Stocks 24.4 26.3 +1.9

Country-by-Country Production Highlights

Vietnam production is forecast to increase 800,000 bags to a record 32.5 million. Expanding area and higher yields drive this growth. Recent high prices allowed growers to increase expenditures on fertilizers. Bean exports are forecast up 300,000 bags to 25.4 million. Domestic consumption is expected to reach a record 5.0 million bags.

Colombia output is expected to rise 900,000 bags to 13.4 million. Adequate soil moisture from last year’s excessive rains supports this growth. Increased utilization of fertilizers and pesticides also contributes. Bean exports, mostly to the United States and European Union, are forecast up 500,000 bags to 12.2 million.

Ethiopia is forecast to increase output by more than 500,000 bags to a record 12.1 million. Higher area and yield drive this growth. Over the last four years, growth has been driven by replacement of over half of the cultivated area with higher-yielding varieties. Bean exports are forecast up nearly 200,000 bags to 7.1 million.

Central America and Mexico production is forecast to rise nearly 600,000 bags to 17.7 million. Rebounding output in Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Panama contribute to this growth. Honduras is expected to account for nearly all the region’s growth, rebounding 500,000 bags to 6.0 million.

Indonesia production is forecast to drop 1.0 million bags to 11.4 million. Robusta output is expected to decrease 1.0 million bags to 10.0 million due to lower yields. Excessive rainfall disrupted flowering and cherry formation in Southern Sumatra and Java. Reduced output is expected to cut bean exports by over 800,000 bags to 7.0 million.

Key Country Production 2026/27 (Million 60-kg Bags)
Country 2025/26 2026/27 Forecast Change
Brazil 63.0 71.9 +8.9
Vietnam 31.7 32.5 +0.8
Colombia 12.5 13.4 +0.9
Ethiopia 11.6 12.1 +0.5
Indonesia 12.4 11.4 -1.0
Honduras 5.5 6.0 +0.5
Uganda 7.1 7.2 +0.1

Price Impact of Rising Supplies

Coffee prices have dropped 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies became available. This is measured by the International Coffee Organization monthly composite price index. The improving supply situation reflects record production and rising ending stocks.

However, ending stocks remain below the long-term average. Weather developments in key producing regions, particularly Minas Gerais in Brazil, remain the primary indicator for world market conditions. The biennial production cycle in Brazil continues to shape global supply and price expectations.

Revisions to 2025/26 Estimates

World production is unchanged from the December 2025 estimate of 178.8 million bags. Vietnam is raised 900,000 bags to 31.7 million on higher yields. Peru is up nearly 600,000 bags to 4.8 million. Colombia is lowered 1.3 million bags to 12.5 million due to excessive rain and cloud cover. Guatemala is reduced nearly 400,000 bags to 3.2 million due to coffee cherry borer and coffee rust.

World bean exports are revised down 4.3 million bags to 119.5 million. Brazil is lowered 3.0 million bags to 34.0 million due to lower shipments to the EU and United States. Ethiopia is reduced over 800,000 bags to 6.9 million on higher-than-anticipated domestic consumption. Vietnam is up 500,000 bags to 25.1 million on higher output.

Key Takeaways for the Coffee Industry

Record global production is expected to boost supplies significantly. Brazil’s Arabica rebound after five years of underperformance is particularly notable. This could help replenish global inventories that were drawn down in previous years.

Ending stocks are forecast to rise for a second consecutive year. However, they remain below the long-term average. Weather developments in Minas Gerais remain the primary indicator for world market conditions. Coffee prices have fallen 25% in seven months, reflecting improved supply. Producers and traders should monitor Brazil’s production cycle closely, as it heavily influences global market conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the forecast for global coffee production in 2026/27?World production is forecast at a record 189.7 million bags, up 10.8 million from the previous year.

What is Brazil’s production forecast?Brazil is forecast at a record 71.9 million bags, driven by a 9.5 million bag Arabica rebound.

What is the global consumption forecast?Global consumption is expected to rise to a record 179.7 million bags, with the largest gains in the EU and US.

What are ending stocks expected to be?Ending stocks are expected to rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags.

How have coffee prices responded to increased supply?Coffee prices have dropped 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies became available.

Which countries are driving production growth?Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Uganda are all posting production increases, while Indonesia declines.

Author: Qahwa World (based on USDA FAS report)
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Coffee: World Markets and Trade
Publication Date: July 23, 2026

Coffee Drinkers Shift to Whole Beans as Prices Soar

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Qahwa World / Lavazza Group
Author: Editorial Team
Date: July 21, 2026

Coffee Drinkers Shift to Whole Beans as Prices Soar

  • Consumers are buying less but better coffee as global prices remain elevated.
  • Whole bean demand surged 46% year-over-year, according to consumer data.
  • Home brewing equipment sales jumped: drip coffee makers up 66%, espresso machines up 50%.
  • Lavazza reported strong 2025 revenue of €3.9 billion, up 15.7%.
  • Lavazza plans to launch Tablì, a sustainable single-serve system using compressed coffee tablets.
  • Nielsen data shows whole bean sales outpacing overall coffee category across UK and Europe.
  • Price volatility is expected to persist, with no retail price cuts in sight.

Global coffee prices have remained elevated for four consecutive years. Consumers are adapting by buying less but better. This trend toward whole bean coffee and bean-to-cup machines represents a significant market shift.

Giuseppe Lavazza, Chairman of the Lavazza Group, called it the sector’s most important trend. “People are looking for beans,” he said. “They enjoy replicating the coffee shop experience at home. Maybe they prefer to consume a little less but of better quality.”

The Trend Emerged in 2024

This shift did not appear overnight. Early indicators were visible in 2024, well before the price peaks of 2025 intensified the movement. Pattern, a consumer demand analysis firm, reported whole bean coffee demand surged 46% year-over-year. This growth was accompanied by strong increases in home brewing equipment.

Drip coffee makers rose 66%. Espresso machines increased 50%. Accessories such as bean storage also grew 20%. The report highlighted a broader move toward serious at-home coffee preparation. Whole beans serve as the starting point for better freshness and flavor.

Multiple National Coffee Association surveys showed sustained high levels of at-home coffee consumption. Around 81% of past-day drinkers consumed coffee at home in some periods. Out-of-home consumption recovered post-pandemic, but the at-home habit remained strong. Consumers continued seeking premium experiences and better value.

2024 Early Indicators – Consumer Demand Growth
Category Growth
Whole bean coffee demand +46%
Drip coffee makers +66%
Espresso machines +50%
Bean storage accessories +20%

Current Reality: Price Surge Accelerates Change

Record-high coffee prices in 2025 pushed the trend into the mainstream. Poor harvests in Brazil and Vietnam drove the price surge. Climate change impacts, geopolitical disruptions, and financial speculation also contributed.

Nielsen data for the year to May 2026 shows the shift clearly. In the United Kingdom, whole-bean sales rose 20.3% by volume. This far outpaced the overall at-home coffee category, which grew just 2.8%. Value sales jumped 36.8%, while bean-to-cup machine sales increased 33.5%.

In Europe, France saw 35% growth by value. Italy recorded 33% growth. Germany, Europe’s largest coffee market, saw 31.2% growth. Whole beans have now surpassed traditional roast-and-ground coffee in volume in Germany.

In the United States, the shift was more modest but consistent. Whole-bean unit sales rose 3.2% over 52 weeks to June 2026. Meanwhile, pod sales fell 4.9% and ground coffee declined 3.9%.

Nielsen Data – Whole Bean Sales Growth (Year to May 2026)
Market Growth
United Kingdom (volume) +20.3%
United Kingdom (value) +36.8%
France (value) +35.0%
Italy (value) +33.0%
Germany (value) +31.2%
United States (unit sales) +3.2%

Why Prices Soared

The coffee market has faced four years of upheaval. Adverse weather and weak harvests in Brazil and Vietnam were key factors. Climate change impacts, including El Niño risks, added pressure. Geopolitical disruptions, higher shipping costs, and financial speculation in futures markets also played a role.

In the UK, at-home coffee prices rose another 6.3% in the year to May 2026. Roasters found it harder to manage costs by blending cheaper Robusta with Arabica. Both varieties hit record levels simultaneously.

Lavazza noted that futures prices have eased from 2025 peaks. However, the market remains too volatile for widespread retail price cuts. “We think there is not time to think about a possible cut in prices,” he said. “The possibility of another increase is not totally over.” At least two strong harvests in Brazil and Vietnam will be needed to rebuild global inventories.

Lavazza’s Performance and Strategic Response

Despite industry challenges, Lavazza reported strong 2025 results. Revenue reached €3.9 billion, up 15.7%. EBITDA rose 8.8% to €340 million. The company is innovating to stay ahead.

Lavazza plans to launch Tablì in the UK in September 2026. This is a single-serve system using compressed coffee tablets. It addresses waste and recycling concerns associated with plastic and aluminum pods. “Capsule is over,” Lavazza declared. “This is a new benchmark.”

Broader Implications and Future Outlook

Consumer behavior is evolving. Coffee remains recession-resistant. However, buyers are trading down in volume while trading up in quality and experience. The “less but better” philosophy reflects economic pressure and a desire for premium at-home rituals.

The pandemic-initiated home-brewing boom has become structural. Demand for whole beans rewards freshness, flavor complexity, and better value per cup. Persistent climate risks, cautious buying by roasters, and farmers holding stock in hope of higher prices continue to shape the market.

Volatility is now “the new constant,” according to Lavazza. Opportunities remain in premium home equipment, sustainable packaging innovations, and single-origin and specialty offerings.

“People are looking for beans and they enjoy maybe to replicate at home the experience of the coffee shop. Maybe they prefer to consume a little less but of better quality.”

— Giuseppe Lavazza, Chairman, Lavazza Group

Conclusion

What began as a noticeable trend in 2024 has evolved into a major market shift in 2026. Soaring prices amplified the movement. Consumers are not abandoning coffee. They are redefining how they enjoy it. As Lavazza observed, this represents a “fundamental transformation in terms of supply and demand.”

For roasters, retailers, and consumers alike, the message is clear. Quality, freshness, and thoughtful preparation are winning out in an era of higher costs and greater awareness.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the “less but better” coffee trend?Consumers are buying less coffee in volume but choosing higher quality whole beans and premium home brewing equipment to replicate café experiences at home.

How much did whole bean demand surge?Whole bean coffee demand surged 46% year-over-year, according to consumer demand analysis from Pattern.

What are the key market data highlights?In the UK, whole-bean sales rose 20.3% by volume. France saw 35% value growth, Italy 33%, and Germany 31.2%.

Why are coffee prices so high?Poor harvests in Brazil and Vietnam, climate change, geopolitical disruptions, and financial speculation have driven prices to record levels.

What is Lavazza’s new Tablì product?Tablì is a single-serve system using compressed coffee tablets instead of plastic or aluminum pods, addressing waste and recycling concerns.

Will coffee prices come down soon?Lavazza says prices remain too volatile for retail cuts. At least two strong harvests in Brazil and Vietnam are needed to rebuild inventories.

Author: Editorial Team (based on Qahwa World report)
Source: Qahwa World / Lavazza Group / Nielsen / Pattern / NCA
Publication Date: July 21, 2026

AHA Says Five Cups of Coffee Daily Safe for Adults

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Qahwa World
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 20, 2026

AHA Says Five Cups of Coffee Daily Safe for Adults

  • American Heart Association statement says up to five cups of coffee daily is safe for most adults.
  • Three to five 8-ounce cups (about 400 mg caffeine) linked to lower risk of heart disease and stroke.
  • The statement published in Circulation journal analyzed dozens of studies on coffee and heart health.
  • Coffee may help heart health through increased exercise, diuretic effects, and reduced inflammation.
  • Some decaf coffee studies also show benefits due to polyphenols acting as antioxidants.
  • Energy drinks contain higher caffeine levels and may pose health risks, researchers warn.
  • Sugar, syrups, and saturated-fat creamers can dilute or eliminate coffee’s benefits.

There is good news for coffee drinkers. Up to five cups of coffee daily are safe for most adults. The brew may even have benefits for heart health. This comes from a new scientific statement by the American Heart Association.

Drinking three to five 8-ounce cups daily is linked to lower health risks. These include heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and Type 2 diabetes. The statement was published Monday in the journal Circulation.

Mixed Research Gets Much-Needed Clarity

Research on coffee and caffeine has been very mixed. Some studies show benefits. Others show health risks. The new statement provides much-needed clarity.

Dr. Eugenia Gianos is a cardiologist at Northwell Health in New York. She was not involved in the statement. She noted that the public is confused. Many clinicians also do not know how to guide their patients. She added that it is great that coffee might even have benefits. “We could even be recommending soon that people have coffee,” she said.

What the Study Found

The statement’s authors analyzed dozens of studies. They looked at the impact of coffee and caffeine on heart health. Researchers came from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. George Washington University and other institutions also participated.

Dr. Gregory M. Marcus is the statement’s lead author. He is a cardiologist at UC San Francisco. He said evidence for coffee’s safety and benefits has been building over time. Most studies are observational. They cannot prove cause and effect. However, there have been more randomized controlled trials in recent years. These show that coffee consumption can be beneficial for heart health.

Key Findings from AHA Coffee Statement
Finding Detail
Safe daily intake Up to five 8-ounce cups (approx. 400 mg caffeine)
Health benefits linked Lower risk of heart disease, stroke, heart failure, Type 2 diabetes
Optimal range Two to four cups daily
Decaf benefits Also linked to lower diabetes and heart disease risk
Warning Sugar, syrups, creamers dilute benefits
Energy drinks Higher caffeine, potential health risks

Why Coffee Might Help the Heart

Scientists are still studying why caffeine might help the heart. People tend to exercise more on days they drink caffeinated coffee. Coffee acts as a diuretic and can lower blood pressure. Caffeine also blocks a substance that causes atrial fibrillation. This arrhythmia can lead to strokes.

Coffee contains other beneficial substances. These include polyphenols that act as antioxidants. They may reduce inflammation. This could explain why decaf coffee is also linked to lower risks of Type 2 diabetes and heart disease in some studies.

The Sweet Spot for Coffee Consumption

Research suggests the sweet spot for caffeinated coffee is two to four cups daily. This amount is enough to have a biological effect. It is not so much that it reaches toxic levels.

People have different responses to caffeine. Genetics and consumption habits play a role. “We all metabolize caffeine at different speeds,” Marcus said.

What to Avoid

The benefits of coffee can be diluted or eliminated by additives. Sugar, syrups, and creamers with saturated fat are problematic. The statement advises caution with these additions.

The AHA statement also examined other caffeine sources. Energy drinks often contain much higher caffeine levels than coffee. Some research has found they can lead to health problems. These include irregular heartbeats and high blood pressure. Marcus advises people to avoid energy drinks.

“Not only is the lay public confused about this topic, but many clinicians out there don’t know how to guide their patients. It is great that a drink so many people enjoy daily might even have benefits. We could even be recommending soon that people have coffee.”

— Dr. Eugenia Gianos, Northwell Health

“We all metabolize caffeine at different speeds.”

— Dr. Gregory M. Marcus, UC San Francisco

Implications for Public Health

The AHA statement offers clear guidance for consumers and clinicians. It suggests that moderate coffee consumption can be part of a heart-healthy lifestyle. The evidence supports coffee’s safety and potential benefits. However, individual responses vary. People should be mindful of additions like sugar and cream. Energy drinks should be avoided due to higher risks.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is it safe to drink five cups of coffee daily?Yes, according to the American Heart Association. Up to five 8-ounce cups daily (about 400 mg caffeine) are safe for most adults.

What are the health benefits of coffee?Moderate coffee consumption is linked to lower risk of heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and Type 2 diabetes.

What is the optimal number of cups per day?Research suggests the sweet spot is generally between two and four cups daily for cardiovascular benefits.

Is decaf coffee also beneficial?Yes, some studies show decaf coffee is also linked to lower risk of Type 2 diabetes and heart disease due to polyphenols.

Can additives reduce coffee’s benefits?Yes, sugar, syrups, and creamers with saturated fat can dilute or eliminate the health benefits of coffee.

Are energy drinks safe?Researchers advise avoiding energy drinks. They often contain much higher caffeine levels and have been linked to irregular heartbeats and high blood pressure.

Author: Qahwa World
Source: Qahwa World
Publication Date: July 20, 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report June 2026: Prices Rebound on El Niño Fears

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, June 2026
Date: July 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report June 2026: Prices Rebound on El Niño Fears

Executive Summary

  • The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I‑CIP) averaged 248.90 US cents/lb in June 2026, down 2.8% from May. However, prices rebounded sharply by 17.4% from a two-year low on June 9 to a two-month high at month-end.
  • Super El Niño fears (67% confidence) and excessive rainfall in Brazil (1,956% above average in Minas Gerais) slowed the harvest and raised quality concerns, reversing the downward trend.
  • Robusta prices rose 1.7% to 169.39 US cents/lb, while Brazilian Naturals fell 7.4% to 272.01 US cents/lb.
  • US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags, the lowest since February 2024. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags.
  • Global green bean exports fell 4.1% to 10.8 million bags in May 2026, driven by a 17.2% drop in Brazilian Naturals. Robusta exports rose 4.8%.
  • The Strait of Hormuz closure added 10-14 days to shipping routes, raising fuel costs 68% and fertilizer prices 25%.
  • The USDA forecast a record Brazilian 2026/27 crop at 71.9 million bags (+14%), while Rabobank raised its global Arabica surplus estimate by 35.7%.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 248.90 US cents per pound in June 2026. This was a 2.8% decrease from May 2026.

Prices continued their downward trend in early June. They fell to 231.96 US cents/lb on June 9, the lowest level in nearly two years. However, prices then rebounded sharply by 17.4%.

They reached a two-month high of 272.39 US cents/lb at the end of the month. Weather emerged as the principal driver of coffee price dynamics in June.

The Colombian Milds and Robustas recorded modest gains. The Colombian Milds rose 0.4% to 324.60 US cents/lb. Robustas increased 1.7% to 169.39 US cents/lb.

In contrast, the Other Milds declined 2.4% to 307.83 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals fell 7.4% to 272.01 US cents/lb. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags.

US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags. This was the lowest level since February 2024. The market became increasingly nervous as inventories tightened.

Super El Niño Fears Drive Rebound

Market sentiment shifted abruptly in June. Growing confidence that El Niño would develop into a Super El Niño halted the downward price movement on June 9.

The Japan Meteorological Agency and NOAA released reports on June 10 and 11. They indicated 67% confidence in a Super El Niño event, the highest confidence level on record.

These forecasts raised concerns about the potential impact on the 2026/27 coffee harvest. The effects vary across regions and seasons.

Reduced rainfall is expected in the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico. Raised temperatures and reduced rainfall are forecast for northern Brazil and parts of South America.

Increased rainfall is expected in southern Brazil and Bolivia. More erratic rainfall and flooding are forecast for East Africa. Drought conditions are expected in Southeast Asia.

On June 17 and 24, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was progressing slowly. The harvest reached 39% and 44% completion, respectively.

The delay was concentrated in Arabica areas. Excess rainfall disrupted harvesting and drying operations, particularly in Minas Gerais. The 44% completion figure on June 24 was below the 51% recorded a year earlier and the five-year average of 47%.

On June 29, Somar Meteorologia measured 31.3 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais. This was equivalent to 1,956% of the historical average for the period. The unusually high precipitation occurred during the normally dry season. It delayed harvesting and drying operations and raised concerns over bean quality.

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Add Supply Pressure

The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed from February 28. This forced Asia-Europe shipping routes to divert via the Cape of Good Hope. Transit times increased by 10 to 14 days.

Bunker fuel prices were up 68% from mid-to-late February. Container spot rates roughly doubled. Fertilizer prices increased 25%.

A gradual reopening occurred on June 22-23 following the U.S.-Iran agreement on June 17. This pushed Robusta prices to a one-week low. However, attacks on the Ever Lovely on June 25 and the Kiku on June 27 renewed geopolitical tensions within days. The associated premiums returned quickly.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 1.09 million bags on June 30. This was the lowest level since February 2024. The decline signaled tighter availability of deliverable stocks. The market was left with limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions.

Supply Fundamentals and Bearish Factors

On June 1, the USDA forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at a record level. The forecast was 14% above the previous season. Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global Arabica surplus estimate by 35.7%.

These forecasts reinforced previous positive reports. CONAB’s official second survey projected Brazil’s total crop at 66.7 million bags. Safras & Mercado projected a total crop increase of 13.4%.

In late May, the USDA revised its estimate of Vietnam’s 2025/26 output upwards to 31.7 million bags. It forecast production at 32.5 million bags for 2026/27. The dollar index stood at 101.6 during the week of June 22. This was close to a 15-month high, creating a headwind for coffee prices.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets contracted by 13.3% to 100.86 US cents/lb in June 2026. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.6%.

Exports: Arabica Declines, Robusta Gains

Global green bean exports totalled 10.8 million bags in May 2026. This was a 4.1% decline compared to 11.26 million bags in May 2025. All coffee groups recorded declines except Robustas.

Robusta exports were up 4.8% to 4.34 million bags. This was driven mainly by Brazil, where exports surged by 195.6% to 0.61 million bags. The sharp rise reflects differences in harvest timing between the current and previous Robusta harvests.

Colombian Milds exports fell by 1.7% to 0.98 million bags. This marked the seventh consecutive month of negative growth. Other Milds shipments fell by 2.8% to 2.75 million bags. This was the first negative growth observed in coffee year 2025/26.

Brazilian Naturals exports fell by 17.2% to 2.73 million bags. This marked the 15th consecutive month of negative growth. The declines were primarily driven by Brazil and Ethiopia.

Total Arabica exports decreased to 6.46 million bags in May 2026. This was a 9.3% drop from 7.12 million bags in May 2025. As a result, Arabica’s share of total green bean exports fell to 60.2% from 64.0% a year earlier.

Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60‑kg bags)

Coffee Group May 2025 May 2026 Change
Robustas 4.14 4.34 +4.8%
Colombian Milds 0.99 0.98 -1.7%
Other Milds 2.82 2.75 -2.8%
Brazilian Naturals 3.30 2.73 -17.2%

Exports by Region: Mixed Performance

Global exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 3.2% to 12.38 million bags in May 2026. The dynamics across the four regions were mixed.

Exports from Asia & Oceania were up 0.4% to 4.32 million bags. India led the growth with exports increasing 33.7% to 0.74 million bags. However, this was largely offset by decreases in Indonesia and Vietnam.

Africa’s exports decreased by 24.1% to 1.63 million bags. The contraction was driven largely by Ethiopia and Uganda. Their combined exports fell to an estimated 1.31 million bags from 1.77 million bags in May 2025.

South America’s exports increased by 4.3% to 4.29 million bags. This was the first monthly increase in 18 months. The upturn was driven mainly by Brazil, whose exports were up 4.3%.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America decreased by 3.8% to 2.14 million bags. This was the first negative growth in coffee year 2025/26, driven mainly by Nicaragua.

Soluble coffee exports increased by 3.6% to 1.51 million bags. Vietnam, Brazil, and India were the largest exporters. Roasted bean exports were up 10.8% to 0.07 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in June 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 248.90 US cents/lb in June 2026, a 2.8% decrease from May. However, prices rebounded sharply from a two-year low on June 9 to a two-month high by month-end.

What caused the price rebound in June?

Super El Niño fears (67% confidence) and excessive rainfall in Brazil (1,956% above average in Minas Gerais) slowed the harvest and raised quality concerns, reversing the downward trend.

How did coffee stocks perform in June?

US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags, the lowest since February 2024. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags. Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 1.09 million bags.

How did the Strait of Hormuz closure affect coffee prices?

The closure added 10-14 days to shipping routes, raising bunker fuel costs 68%, container spot rates by about 100%, and fertilizer prices 25%.

What were the export trends in May 2026?

Global green bean exports fell 4.1% to 10.8 million bags. Robusta exports rose 4.8%, while Brazilian Naturals fell 17.2%. Total Arabica exports were down 9.3%.

What was Brazil’s harvest outlook in June?

The USDA forecast a record 2026/27 Brazilian crop at 71.9 million bags (+14%). However, excessive rainfall in June slowed harvesting, with only 44% completed by June 24, below the five-year average of 47%.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, June 2026 | Date: July 2026

Brazil Coffee Harvest 2026 Faces Delays

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Sucafina Brazil / Industry Report
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 8, 2026

Brazil Coffee Harvest 2026 Faces Delays

  • Brazil’s 2026/27 crop is forecast at 75.4 million bags, driven by a 27% increase in Arabica production.
  • Harvest progress is significantly slower than usual, reaching only 45.2% by June 26.
  • Early quality indicators are strong, with 25% of Arabica grading screen 17+ and 70% of Robusta grading screen 13+.
  • Sucafina plans to expand IMPACT verification by 16% in 2026 across key producing regions.
  • Regenerative agriculture initiatives include 45 demonstration plots and training for 50 producers.
  • Two flagship programs, SEMEIA and RE.CO.LHA, are moving from planning to implementation this year.
  • Despite delays, tree health and vegetative growth suggest a positive outlook for the 2027/28 crop.

Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is expected to arrive late. Persistent rainfall and delayed Robusta maturation have slowed operations. However, early quality indicators remain promising.

The total crop is forecast to reach 75.4 million bags. This represents a significant recovery led by Arabica production. At the same time, sustainability initiatives continue to expand across key regions.

Arabica Harvest Shows Strong Recovery

The Arabica harvest is progressing more slowly than usual. Recurring rainfall throughout May and June caused significant delays. As of June 26, the overall Brazilian harvest reached 45.2%. This is below last year’s pace of 52.1%. It is also below the historical average of 51%.

Despite the slower pace, Arabica production is forecast to increase by 27%. This growth drives the total crop estimate to 75.4 million bags. Early quality indicators align with expectations for a high-volume crop. Screen 17+ beans account for around 25% of harvested volumes.

In addition, the recurring rains have supported tree health. Vegetative growth remains strong. This suggests a positive outlook for the 2027/28 crop as well.

Robusta Harvest Behind Schedule

The Robusta harvest is also behind schedule. The primary reason is a later-than-usual maturation cycle. Weather disruptions are not the main factor. Harvest activity began within the usual window in April and May. However, progress has been significantly slower than normal.

Completion is expected by the end of July. Robusta production is forecast to decline slightly by approximately 4% year-on-year. Nevertheless, early quality has been encouraging. Around 70% of beans grade screen 13 and above. Overall quality remains strong. This supports expectations for a solid crop despite the delayed harvest.

Brazil 2026/27 Coffee Harvest Key Indicators
Indicator Value
Total forecasted crop 75.4 million bags
Arabica production growth +27% year-on-year
Harvest progress (as of June 26) 45.2%
Arabica screen 17+ quality 25% of harvested volumes
Robusta screen 13+ quality 70% of harvested volumes
Robusta production change -4% year-on-year

Sustainability Efforts Gain Momentum

Sucafina’s sustainability efforts continue to expand. The company is advancing the re-verification of IMPACT producer groups. These groups span the Cerrado, Mogiana, Sul de Minas, and Conilon regions. This process reinforces commitment to responsible sourcing and high-quality standards.

In 2026, the team in Brazil aims to expand IMPACT verification by approximately 16%. The strongest growth is expected across Arabica-producing regions. Matas de Minas has been identified as a strategic priority. Updated participation figures are expected by September.

Regenerative Agriculture Through IMPACT Beyond

Through IMPACT Beyond, Sucafina deepens its focus on regenerative agriculture. Producers receive assistance on multiple fronts. This includes low-carbon fertilizers, composting, and irrigation management. Soil health assessment uses Embrapa’s BioAS methodology.

BioAS adds a biological layer to routine soil testing. It measures the activity of two enzymes: arylsulfatase and beta-glucosidase. This provides real-time data on soil health, sustainability, and productive potential. Early detection of degradation helps build long-term soil resilience.

So far, the program has set over 45 demonstration plots. Around 50 producers have received training. This gives farmers practical, field-based learning opportunities.

SEMEIA and RE.CO.LHA Lead the Way

2026 marks a pivotal year for IMPACT Beyond. Two flagship initiatives are moving from planning to implementation: SEMEIA and RE.CO.LHA.

RE.CO.LHA operates across Brazil’s Arabica regions. These include Cerrado, Mogiana, and South Minas Gerais. The program runs on a four-year cycle. It targets 300 farms with technical assistance, farmer training, and on-farm interventions. The goal is to improve soil health, cut production costs, and lower carbon emissions.

SEMEIA is now in its first year. It is transforming Brazil’s Robusta sector. In just 12 months, the program has conducted more than 100 soil analyses. These cover physical, chemical, and biological indicators. It has distributed more than 120 tonnes of low-carbon fertilizers. Farm carbon footprints have been measured. Through a partnership with EMATER-MG, production cost analyses give producers clearer visibility into their costs.

“It is incredibly rewarding to see the positive feedback from farmers. What stands out most is our collaborative approach, aligning farmers’ needs with what investors expect. It is a challenge, but an inspiring one, because every step forward builds a more sustainable and profitable future for the communities we support.”

— Mariana Martins, Sustainability Manager at Sucafina Brasil

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the forecast for Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop?The total crop is forecast at 75.4 million bags, driven by a 27% increase in Arabica production.

Why is the harvest delayed?Persistent rainfall in May and June delayed Arabica harvest. Robusta harvest is also behind schedule due to a later-than-usual maturation cycle.

How is coffee quality this season?Early quality indicators are strong. Around 25% of Arabica beans grade screen 17+, and 70% of Robusta beans grade screen 13+.

What is the IMPACT program?IMPACT is Sucafina’s Responsible Sourcing Program. It focuses on responsible sourcing, partnerships at origin, and high-quality standards.

What are SEMEIA and RE.CO.LHA?They are two flagship sustainability initiatives. RE.CO.LHA targets Arabica regions with technical assistance. SEMEIA focuses on transforming Brazil’s Robusta sector.

How does BioAS methodology work?BioAS adds a biological layer to soil testing. It measures enzyme activity to assess soil health, sustainability, and productive potential in real time.

Author: Editorial Team (based on Sucafina Brazil report)
Source: Sucafina Brazil / Industry Update
Publication Date: July 8, 2026