ICO Coffee Market Report August 2026: Prices Hold Steady

Posted on September 16, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, August 2026
Date: September 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report August 2026: Prices Hold Steady

Executive Summary

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.29 US cents/lb in August 2026, effectively unchanged from July (287.26 US cents/lb).
A mid-month rally, driven by El Niño fears and tight Arabica supplies, was reversed by favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of increased supply.
Colombian Milds rose 1.1% to 387.46 US cents/lb, while Other Milds gained 0.7% to 361.31 US cents/lb. Robustas fell 2.2% to 180.63 US cents/lb.
US certified Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags, the lowest level since 1999. London Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags, a nine-month high.
Global green bean exports rose 6.3% to 10.76 million bags in July, driven entirely by a 32% surge in Robusta shipments.
World coffee production is estimated to rise 4.4% to 183.6 million bags in 2025/26, while consumption is projected to decline 0.8%.
The global market is projected to record a surplus of 3.0 million bags in 2025/26, the first after four consecutive years of deficit.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.29 US cents per pound in August 2026. This was effectively unchanged from July 2026, when it averaged 287.26 US cents per pound.

The month followed an inverted V-shaped pattern. Prices softened early, then rallied from August 17 to 25. A sharp correction on August 26 and 27 brought the indicator back to its opening level.

The mid-month rally was driven by heightened expectations of a strong El Niño event. These concerns were compounded by historically low certified Arabica stocks. Prices eased toward the end of the month as favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of a substantial surplus reduced the risk premium.

Price Movements and Market Volatility

Colombian Milds and Other Milds recorded modest gains. Colombian Milds rose 1.1% to average 387.46 US cents/lb. Other Milds increased 0.7% to 361.31 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals edged up 0.5% to 322.24 US cents/lb.

In contrast, Robustas declined 2.2% to 180.63 US cents/lb. On the futures markets, London ICE Robusta prices fell 3.0% to 167.63 US cents/lb. New York ICE Arabica prices expanded 0.9% to 313.20 US cents/lb.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets expanded 5.8% to 145.56 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential widened 5.7% to 26.15 US cents/lb.

Volatility declined across most indicators. The intra-day volatility of the I-CIP stood at 13.7% in August, a 1.3 percentage point decrease from July. Colombian Milds volatility fell to 14.6%, while Other Milds dropped to 15.7%.

Brazilian Naturals volatility decreased 1.6 percentage points to 16.3%. Robusta volatility remained stable at 11.0%. At the New York and London futures markets, volatilities were 19.9% and 13.2%, respectively.

Diverging Certified Stocks

Certified stocks diverged sharply between the two futures markets. London certified Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags. This was their highest level in nine months.

In contrast, US certified Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags. This was the lowest level since 1999. It is approximately 68% below the level held a year earlier.

Several factors drove this divergence. El Niño risks raised concerns about future Arabica supplies. At the same time, disruption in Colombia and slower harvesting in Brazil limited near-term availability. A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck western Colombia on August 10, halting operations at the Pacific port of Buenaventura.

Brazil’s harvest also lagged behind its historical pace. Safras & Mercado reported that the 2026/27 harvest was 90% complete as of August 12, against 97% a year earlier and a five-year average of 94%.

Exports by Coffee Group

Global green bean exports totaled 10.76 million bags in July 2026. This was a 6.3% increase from 10.12 million bags in July 2025. It marked the fourth month of positive year-on-year growth in the first 10 months of 2025/26.

The increase was driven entirely by Robustas. Robusta green bean exports surged 32.0% to 4.98 million bags. Vietnam led the increase with a 87.4% jump to 2.4 million bags. Brazil also contributed, with its Robusta exports up 83.7% to 0.86 million bags.

In contrast, all Arabica groups recorded declines. Colombian Milds exports fell 11.1% to 1.04 million bags. Brazilian Naturals decreased 10.0% to 2.46 million bags. Other Milds fell 6.7% to 2.27 million bags.

Total Arabica exports decreased to 5.78 million bags in July 2026. This was down 8.9% from 6.35 million bags in July 2025. As a result, the Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 59.7% from 63.6% a year earlier.

Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60 kg bags)

Coffee Group	July 2025	July 2026	Change
Robustas	3.77	4.98	+32.0%
Colombian Milds	1.17	1.04	-11.1%
Other Milds	2.44	2.27	-6.7%
Brazilian Naturals	2.74	2.46	-10.0%

Exports by Region

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 3.3% to 12.23 million bags in July 2026. Two of the four regions recorded increases. Asia & Oceania and South America posted gains, while Africa and the Caribbean, Mexico & Central America recorded declines.

Asia & Oceania led the upturn with a 17.6% increase to 4.38 million bags. Vietnam was the main driver, with exports up 43.7% to 2.83 million bags. The region’s year-to-date exports rose to 43.59 million bags.

South America’s exports increased 3.1% to 4.57 million bags. This was the third consecutive month of positive growth. Brazil drove the increase with a 10.9% rise to 3.06 million bags. However, Colombia partly offset this with a 14.7% decline to 1.01 million bags.

Africa’s exports decreased 6.7% to 1.90 million bags. Ethiopia and Uganda drove the decline, with combined exports falling 15.9% to an estimated 1.52 million bags. Uganda’s decline follows a record performance in 2024/25 and may reflect normalization from an exceptionally high benchmark.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America decreased 15.9% to 1.39 million bags. This was the third consecutive month of negative growth, driven mainly by Mexico and Nicaragua.

Soluble coffee exports decreased 16.7% to 1.4 million bags in July 2026. Roasted bean exports rose 70.6% to 0.07 million bags.

Global Supply and Demand Outlook

The ICO published updated supply and demand statistics on September 10, 2026. World coffee production increased 2.5% to 175.9 million bags in 2024/25. For 2025/26, production is estimated to rise 4.4% to 183.6 million bags.

Arabica production is projected to increase 2.8% to 104.4 million bags in 2025/26. This reflects the higher-yielding phase of the biennial cycle in South America. Robusta output is estimated to jump 6.5% to 79.2 million bags.

South America remains the world’s largest producer, with an estimated output of 84.1 million bags. This represents 45.8% of global production. Asia & Oceania follows with 29.7%, then Africa with 13.6% and the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico with 10.8%.

World coffee consumption increased 4.3% to 182.2 million bags in 2024/25. Growth was mainly driven by North America and Europe. In 2025/26, consumption is estimated to decline 0.8%, partly reflecting normalization after unusually strong growth.

Europe remained the largest consuming region, accounting for 30.1% of global consumption in 2024/25. South America is estimated to overtake North America as the third-largest consuming region in 2025/26.

Following four consecutive years of deficit from 2021/22 to 2024/25, the global coffee market is projected to record a surplus of 3.0 million bags in 2025/26.

Table 2: World Supply, Demand and Balance (million 60 kg bags)

Item	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26
Arabica Production	101.1	101.6	104.4
Robusta Production	70.5	74.4	79.2
Total Production	171.6	175.9	183.6
Consumption	174.6	182.2	180.6
Balance	-3.0	-6.3	+3.0

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in August 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 287.29 US cents/lb in August 2026, effectively unchanged from July 2026 (287.26 US cents/lb).

What caused the mid-month price rally and subsequent correction?

A rally from August 17 to 25 was driven by El Niño fears and tight Arabica supplies. It was reversed by favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of a substantial surplus.

Why did certified coffee stocks diverge?

US Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags (lowest since 1999) due to El Niño risks and supply disruptions. London Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags.

How did coffee exports perform in July 2026?

Global green bean exports rose 6.3% to 10.76 million bags. Robusta exports surged 32%, while all Arabica groups declined.

What is the global supply and demand outlook?

World production is estimated at 183.6 million bags in 2025/26 (+4.4%), with consumption at 180.6 million bags (-0.8%). This results in a surplus of 3.0 million bags.

What was the key development in certified stocks?

US certified Arabica stocks fell to their lowest level since 1999 at 0.24 million bags, while London Robusta stocks reached a nine-month high of 0.83 million bags.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, August 2026 | Date: September 2026

Simonelli Group and UNICAM Present “Science Driven Coffee Cup” Conference

Posted on September 6, 2026September 6, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Simonelli Group / University of Camerino / RICH
Author: Qahwa World
Date: September 6, 2026

Simonelli Group and UNICAM Present “Science Driven Coffee Cup” Conference

International scientific coffee conference in Italy on November 19-20, 2026.
Brings together researchers, industry experts, and professionals from around the world.
Fields include chemistry, biology, neuroscience, data science, and consumer research.
Organized by RICH in partnership with the University of Camerino.
Hosted at Simonelli Group Campus in Belforte del Chienti, Italy.
Celebrates the 10th anniversary of RICH (2016-2026).

The Research & Innovation Coffee Hub (RICH) and the University of Camerino (UNICAM) have announced the first edition of Science Driven Coffee Cup. This is an international scientific conference dedicated to innovation and interdisciplinary research in the coffee sector.

The event will take place on November 19-20, 2026, at the Simonelli Group Campus in Belforte del Chienti, Italy. Registration and further information are available at the dedicated conference website.

A Platform for Dialogue Between Academia and Industry

Science Driven Coffee Cup has been designed as a platform for dialogue and collaboration among academia, research institutions, industry, and the wider coffee community. The conference will bring together researchers, professionals, companies, and experts from different countries to advance knowledge about coffee through an integrated scientific approach.

Fields including chemistry, biology, neuroscience, data science, and consumer research will provide complementary perspectives on challenges and opportunities across the coffee value chain, from raw materials to the consumer experience.

**Science Driven Coffee Cup Event Details**
Item	Details
Event	Science Driven Coffee Cup 2026
Date	November 19-20, 2026
Location	Simonelli Group Campus, Belforte del Chienti, Italy
Organizers	RICH and University of Camerino
Host	Simonelli Group
Disciplines	Chemistry, biology, neuroscience, data science, consumer research

Building a Bridge Between Science and Industry

Marco Feliziani, CEO of Simonelli Group, said: “Technological development cannot exist without scientific research and the continuous growth of knowledge. This is why we have been collaborating for decades with universities and international research centers active in a variety of scientific fields. The performance of our technologies is the clearest proof of this commitment.”

Feliziani noted that Simonelli Group and the University of Camerino established RICH in 2016 to contribute directly to coffee research and create a bridge between academia and industry. “The objective of RICH is to generate new knowledge and expand the scientific understanding of coffee, creating value across the entire supply chain.”

He added: “Science Driven Coffee Cup is the result of this vision: sharing research outcomes, encouraging dialogue among experts, and continuing to build the future of coffee on a solid scientific foundation.”

University of Camerino Leadership

Graziano Leoni, Rector of the University of Camerino, said the partnership demonstrates how cooperation between universities and industry can turn research and knowledge into innovation and value. “The role of a university is not only to generate new knowledge, but also to create the conditions for that knowledge to be shared, transferred, and translated into opportunities for development.”

He added that this is one of the core missions of UNICAM, supported through investment and practical initiatives. Leoni also thanked the UNICAM researchers involved in RICH, describing their expertise and engagement with the business community as a driving force behind knowledge transfer and innovation.

RICH 10th Anniversary

The conference will also mark the 10th anniversary of the Research & Innovation Coffee Hub. Established in 2016 by Simonelli Group in partnership with the University of Camerino, RICH focuses on coffee research from a scientific and multidisciplinary perspective. Its work covers coffee and coffee-based products, milk and alternative beverages, with activities including scientific publications, educational initiatives, and participation in conferences internationally.

A Forum for the Coffee Research Community

In addition to scientific sessions, the Science Driven Coffee Cup program will include networking opportunities, presentations on developments in coffee science, and exchanges with international experts from the disciplines represented at the conference. The organizers aim for the event to become a significant meeting point for both the scientific and professional coffee communities.

About the Organizers

Simonelli Group is a manufacturer of professional espresso machines, grinders, and filter coffee machines. The company operates in more than 130 countries and exports more than 95% of its production. Its portfolio includes three brands: Nuova Simonelli, Victoria Arduino, and 3TEMP.

RICH was established in 2016 to investigate coffee from a scientific and multidisciplinary perspective and to disseminate knowledge to support the development of the coffee industry.

The University of Camerino, founded in 1336, offers programs through five schools covering architecture and design, biosciences and veterinary medicine, law, pharmaceutical and health product sciences, and science and technology. The university emphasizes academic excellence, teaching innovation, scientific research, technology transfer, public engagement, and collaboration with industry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Science Driven Coffee Cup?An international scientific conference dedicated to innovation and interdisciplinary research in the coffee sector, held in Italy on November 19-20, 2026.

Who is organizing the conference?RICH in partnership with the University of Camerino, hosted by Simonelli Group at its campus in Belforte del Chienti.

What disciplines are represented?Chemistry, biology, neuroscience, data science, and consumer research.

What anniversary is being celebrated?The 10th anniversary of RICH (2016-2026).

Where will the conference take place?At the Simonelli Group Campus in Belforte del Chienti, Italy.

How can I register?Through the dedicated conference website: sdcc.unicam.it

Used Coffee Grounds Could Make Concrete Stronger, Study Finds

Posted on September 6, 2026September 6, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: RMIT University / Journal of Cleaner Production
Author: Qahwa World
Date: September 6, 2026New research reveals that using coffee grounds can make concrete stronger.

Used Coffee Grounds Could Make Concrete Stronger, Study Finds

Australian researchers convert coffee waste into biochar that strengthens concrete. The discovery highlights how coffee grounds concrete stronger techniques may benefit the industry.
Replacing 15% of sand with biochar increased concrete strength by 29.3%, showing how coffee grounds concrete stronger when incorporated through this method.
Coffee grounds are heated to 350°C without oxygen to produce biochar, indicating part of the process that can help make coffee grounds concrete stronger in new construction practices.
Australia produces 75 million kg of coffee waste annually; globally, 10 billion kg.
Carbon emissions reduced by 26% when using 15% biochar instead of sand.
50 billion tons of sand used annually in construction, threatening natural resources.

Researchers at RMIT University in Melbourne have found that waste coffee grounds can be converted into a biochar that strengthens concrete while reducing the amount of natural sand required. The research was published in the Journal of Cleaner Production in 2023. And so, using coffee grounds concrete stronger becomes a viable outcome for future applications.

The researchers heated used coffee grounds to 350 degrees Celsius in an oxygen-free process, turning them into a charcoal-like material known as biochar. They then used the biochar to replace part of the natural sand in a concrete mixture.

Key Results: 29% Stronger Concrete

The strongest result came when biochar replaced 15% of the sand by volume. The resulting concrete recorded a 29.3% increase in compressive strength compared with conventional concrete containing plain sand.

Raw coffee grounds cannot simply be added to concrete. They contain organic compounds that can interfere with the cement-setting process and weaken the resulting material. To overcome this problem, the RMIT team heated the grounds to 350 degrees Celsius without oxygen. This process chars the material rather than burning it, producing a porous, carbon-rich biochar that can be incorporated into concrete.

**Results of Coffee Biochar in Concrete**
Sand Replacement	Compressive Strength Increase	Carbon Emission Reduction
5%	–	15%
10%	–	23%
15%	29.3%	26%

Solving Two Environmental Problems at Once

The approach could address two environmental challenges at the same time: the disposal of organic waste and the growing demand for natural sand in construction. Australia produces an estimated 75 million kilograms of ground coffee waste each year, much of which ends up in landfill. The global figure is estimated at around 10 billion kilograms.

Although sand may appear abundant, the type required for concrete is increasingly under pressure. Desert sand is generally too smooth and rounded for effective use in concrete, meaning construction often relies on more angular sand extracted from rivers and other sources.

Why the Temperature Matters

The researchers found that the temperature used to produce the biochar affected its performance. Biochar produced at 350 degrees Celsius performed better than material produced at 500 degrees Celsius. Microscopic analysis showed that the biochar produced at the higher temperature was more porous and had extensive micro-cracking, which the researchers suggested resulted from greater thermal degradation.

Reducing Carbon Emissions and Fossil Fuel Use

A life-cycle assessment reported reductions in carbon emissions of 15%, 23% and 26% when biochar replaced 5%, 10% and 15% of the sand, respectively, along with lower fossil-fuel use.

Research Still at an Early Stage

The findings are promising, but they do not yet establish that coffee-ground biochar concrete is ready for widespread construction use. The research was conducted at laboratory scale, and compressive strength is only one of the properties engineers consider when assessing concrete.

Long-term durability remains an important question. Concrete used in real structures must withstand years of exposure to changing environmental conditions and repeated loading. The researchers need to establish how coffee biochar concrete performs over much longer periods and under real-world conditions.

The team has already moved beyond laboratory testing through a coffee-concrete footpath trial. Future research will need to examine long-term durability, variations in coffee ground properties, consistency during large-scale production, and whether the energy required to produce biochar remains environmentally and economically viable at scale.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is coffee ground turned into biochar?Coffee grounds are heated to 350°C in an oxygen-free process, transforming them into a porous, carbon-rich biochar.

What percentage of sand can be replaced with biochar?The best result came from replacing 15% of sand with biochar, achieving a 29.3% increase in compressive strength.

Can raw coffee grounds be added directly to concrete?No, raw coffee grounds contain organic compounds that interfere with cement setting and weaken concrete. They must first be converted to biochar.

How much coffee waste is produced globally?Approximately 10 billion kilograms of coffee waste are produced worldwide each year.

What are the environmental benefits of this technology?It recycles organic waste, reduces demand for natural sand, and lowers carbon emissions by up to 26%.

Is this technology ready for commercial use?Not yet. Research is still in early stages, with further study needed on long-term durability and large-scale production.

Coffee’s Effects on Sex Hormones in Men and Women

Posted on August 31, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: University of Oulu / European Journal of Nutrition
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 31, 2026

Finnish Study: Coffee’s Effects on Sex Hormones in Men and Women

Finnish study links regular coffee consumption to healthier body composition in both sexes.
Significant increase in total testosterone and SHBG in men.
Increased SHBG and decreased free androgens in women.
Lower levels of branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) in both sexes.
Lower BCAAs indicate reduced risk of insulin resistance, diabetes, and heart disease.
The study included over 2,200 participants aged 46.

A new scientific study by researchers at the University of Oulu in Finland has found that regular coffee consumption is linked to healthier body composition. Coffee drinkers had lower stored fat and greater muscle mass compared to non-drinkers. The study also revealed surprising hormonal effects that differ between men and women.

The study was published in the European Journal of Nutrition. It analyzed data from over 2,200 participants aged 46. The research team examined the relationship between coffee consumption, heart health indicators, metabolic outcomes, and sex hormone levels.

A Hormonal Signature Linked to Coffee

The results revealed a “hormonal signature” linked to coffee. The strongest effects were seen in men. Coffee consumption was associated with improved glucose and insulin regulation. Men also showed higher levels of total testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG).

In women, coffee was linked to increased SHBG and decreased free androgens. These hormones are responsible for libido, mood, and the health of the body, hair, and bones.

**Hormonal Effects of Coffee by Gender**
Gender	Hormonal Effect
Men	Increased total testosterone, increased SHBG, improved glucose and insulin regulation
Women	Increased SHBG, decreased free androgens

Hormonal Changes Independent of Lifestyle

Lead researcher Luca Viruisti, a nutrition specialist, explained that these hormonal changes remained significant even after excluding lifestyle factors and body mass index. This suggests coffee has a direct effect on the hormonal system, not just a result of other healthy habits.

Lower Branched-Chain Amino Acids (BCAAs)

The results showed lower levels of branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) in the blood of coffee drinkers of both sexes. Researchers noted that lower levels of these amino acids are a positive indicator. Chronic elevation of BCAAs is linked to risks of insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and declining liver health.

**Benefits of Lower Branched-Chain Amino Acids (BCAAs)**
Risks Linked to High BCAAs	Benefits of Lower BCAAs
Insulin resistance	Improved insulin sensitivity
Type 2 diabetes	Lower diabetes risk
Heart disease	Lower cardiovascular risk
Declining liver health	Improved liver function

Conclusion: Coffee’s Divergent Hormonal Effects

The study confirms that coffee has hormonal effects that differ between men and women. For men, coffee appears supportive of testosterone levels and metabolic health. For women, it may be linked to hormonal changes that affect libido and mood.

On the positive side, coffee was linked to lower branched-chain amino acids in both sexes. This reduction may contribute to lowering the risks of insulin resistance, diabetes, and heart disease. Further studies are needed to understand the precise mechanisms behind these effects.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does coffee raise testosterone in men?Yes, the study showed significant increases in total testosterone and SHBG levels in men who regularly consume coffee.

How does coffee affect hormones in women?In women, coffee was linked to increased SHBG and decreased free androgens, which are responsible for libido, mood, and body, hair, and bone health.

What are branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs)?They are amino acids whose elevated levels are linked to risks of insulin resistance, diabetes, and heart disease. The study showed lower levels in coffee drinkers.

Are coffee’s hormonal effects dependent on lifestyle?No, the study showed that hormonal effects remained significant even after excluding lifestyle factors and body mass index.

How many participants were in the study?The study included over 2,200 participants aged 46, giving the results good statistical power.

Where was the study published?The study was published in the European Journal of Nutrition, a peer-reviewed scientific journal specializing in nutrition and health.

Coffee Prices Record Largest Monthly Surge Since 2021

Posted on August 29, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, July 2026
Date: August 2026According to recent reports, coffee prices experienced the largest monthly surge in 2026.

Coffee Prices Record Largest Monthly Surge Since 2021

Executive Summary

The ICO composite price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.
Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta: Colombian Milds +18.1%, Brazilian Naturals +17.9%, Robustas +9.1%.
Record daily gains of 8.2% (July 6) and 9.3% (July 9) marked the largest increases in 21 years.
El Niño probability reached 97% through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event.
Brazil’s harvest was only 64% complete by July 15, below the 5‑year average of 70%, due to wet conditions.
US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024.
London Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags, widening the price gap between the two varieties.

Global coffee prices recorded their largest monthly increase since 2021 in July 2026. The ICO Composite Indicator Price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents per pound.

Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta. Colombian Milds increased 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb. Other Milds increased 16.5% to 358.65 US cents/lb. Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.

The price rally was driven by several factors. Weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tightening Arabica supplies all played a role.

On July 6, the composite price rose 8.2% in a single day. On July 9, it rose another 9.3%. These were the largest daily increases observed in 21 years.

El Niño fears intensified significantly. On July 9, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97% probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027. There was also an 81% probability of a very strong event during October-December 2026.

This outlook pointed to increased risks of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies. These could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and 2027.

Weather factors were a key driver. Unusually wet conditions in parts of Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying operations. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s harvest was only 64% complete as of July 15. This compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%.

Wet conditions also caused uneven maturation. Multiple flowering cycles led to cherries at different stages of ripeness. This required more selective picking and sorting, making harvesting slower and more costly.

US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags in July. This was their lowest level since January 2024. The decline signaled significantly tighter immediately deliverable supplies of Arabica.

In contrast, London certified Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags. This divergence widened the price gap between Arabica and Robusta and increased the price differentials.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 0.98 million bags on July 31. This signaled limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions.

Table 1: Key Price Movements (US cents/lb)

Indicator	June 2026	July 2026	Change
ICO Composite	248.90	287.26	+15.4%
Colombian Milds	324.60	383.39	+18.1%
Brazilian Naturals	272.01	320.69	+17.9%
Robustas	169.39	184.78	+9.1%

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise in July 2026?

The ICO composite price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents/lb, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

What caused the price surge?

El Niño fears (97% probability), wet weather in Brazil slowing the harvest, and falling Arabica stocks were the main drivers.

How did Arabica and Robusta prices perform differently?

Arabica prices rose faster (+18.1% for Colombian Milds) while Robusta rose 9.1%, widening the price gap.

What happened to certified coffee stocks?

US Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags (lowest since Jan 2024), while London Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags.

What is the El Niño outlook?

There is a 97% probability of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027, with an 81% chance of a very strong event in late 2026.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, July 2026 | Date: August 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026: Prices Surge 15.4% on Supply Fears

Posted on August 29, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, July 2026
Date: August 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026: Prices Surge 15.4% on Supply Fears

Executive Summary

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, up 15.4% from June, with Arabica prices outpacing Robusta.
Record daily gains of 8.2% on July 6 and 9.3% on July 9 marked the largest increases in 21 years.
Colombian Milds rose 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb; Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb; Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.
US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024, tightening immediately deliverable supplies.
ICE margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures surged from $5,685 to over $21,000 in early July, reducing liquidity and amplifying volatility.
El Niño probability reached 97% through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event, heightening supply concerns.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest was only 64% complete by July 15, below the 5‑year average of 70%, due to wet conditions.
Global green bean exports rose 0.8% to 10.48 million bags in June, driven by Brazilian Naturals (+7.1%).

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents per pound in July 2026. This was a 15.4% increase from June 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta prices. The Colombian Milds increased 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb. The Other Milds increased 16.5% to 358.65 US cents/lb. Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.

The widening price gap was reflected in higher differentials. The arbitrage between New York and London futures markets expanded by 36.4% to 137.61 US cents/lb.

Volatility also rose sharply. On July 6, the I-CIP rose 8.2% in a single day. On July 9, it rose another 9.3%. Together, these were the largest daily increases observed in 21 years.

Several factors contributed to the price surge. Weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tightening Arabica supplies all played a role. US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest level since January 2024.

ICE Margin Requirements and Market Liquidity

In response to heightened market risk, ICE Futures U.S. increased margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures multiple times in early July. The margin rate for the September 2026 contract rose from $5,685 before July to $14,715 on July 6, and then to $21,116 on July 9.

It was subsequently reduced to $14,606 on July 24. However, it remained well above its pre-July level. These adjustments affected financing requirements, market participation, and liquidity.

Higher margins require participants to provide more collateral. This reduces leverage and may discourage highly leveraged positions. It also strengthens protection against losses if a participant defaults.

However, it may also force positions to be closed. This reduces liquidity and can temporarily amplify price movements. The sharp price increases on July 6 and 9 may have been amplified by these liquidity effects.

Systematic and momentum-driven buying also played a role. Short covering, fueled by concerns over declining ICE-certified stocks, reinforced the upward price pressure. Thin liquidity made the market more susceptible to sharp movements.

Weather and El Niño Concerns

Weather factors were a key driver of July’s price movements. Unusually wet conditions in parts of Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying operations. This raised concerns about coffee quality.

On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was only 64% complete as of July 15. This compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%.

Meanwhile, the El Niño outlook strengthened significantly. On July 9, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97% probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027.

There was also an 81% probability of a very strong event during October-December 2026. This could rank among the most intense El Niño events recorded since 1950.

This outlook pointed to increased risks of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies. These could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and 2027.

Certified Stocks and Supply Tightness

London certified Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags in July. In contrast, US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags. This was their lowest level since January 2024.

This divergence indicated significantly tighter immediately deliverable supplies of Arabica. This supported higher Arabica prices relative to Robusta. It also contributed to the widening differentials between the two markets.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 0.98 million bags on July 31. This decline signaled limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions. It amplified the market’s response to weather and El Niño concerns.

Table 1: ICO Indicator Prices and Futures (US cents/lb)

Indicator	June 2026	July 2026	Change
ICO Composite	248.90	287.26	+15.4%
Colombian Milds	324.60	383.39	+18.1%
Other Milds	307.83	358.65	+16.5%
Brazilian Naturals	272.01	320.69	+17.9%
Robustas	169.39	184.78	+9.1%
New York ICE (Arabica)	256.75	310.34	+20.9%
London ICE (Robusta)	155.90	172.73	+10.8%

Green Bean Exports: Mixed Performance by Group

Global green bean exports totaled 10.48 million bags in June 2026. This was a 0.8% increase compared to 10.4 million bags in June 2025.

Brazilian Naturals exports rose 7.1% to 2.76 million bags. This was the first month of positive growth after 15 consecutive months of decline. The increase was driven by Brazil, where exports rose from 1.82 million to 2.01 million bags.

Colombian Milds exports increased 1.2% to 1.09 million bags. This was the group’s first positive growth in the current coffee year. Kenya was the main driver, with exports rising 39.2% to 0.11 million bags.

Other Milds exports fell 1.3% to 2.66 million bags. Nicaragua and Mexico were the main drivers of the decline, with combined exports falling 42.9% to 0.34 million bags.

Robusta exports fell 2.1% to 3.97 million bags. This was only the second instance of negative growth in the first nine months of the coffee year. Indonesia and Uganda drove the decline, with combined exports falling 36.1% to 0.98 million bags.

Total Arabica exports rose 2.5% to 6.51 million bags. However, the Arabicas’ share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 60.4% from 63.7% a year earlier.

Table 2: Green Bean Exports by Group (million 60‑kg bags)

Coffee Group	June 2025	June 2026	Change
Robustas	4.05	3.97	-2.1%
Colombian Milds	1.08	1.09	+1.2%
Other Milds	2.70	2.66	-1.3%
Brazilian Naturals	2.57	2.76	+7.1%

Exports by Region: South America Leads

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 0.3% to 11.88 million bags in June 2026. Exports declined in three of the four regions. South America recorded the only increase.

South America’s exports rose 17.3% to 4.8 million bags. Brazil led the increase, with exports up 17.4% to 3.09 million bags. Peru also contributed, with exports rising 50% to 0.49 million bags.

Asia & Oceania exports fell 2.4% to 3.63 million bags. Indonesia led the decline, with exports falling 33.3% to 0.58 million bags. However, India and Vietnam partly offset this with increases of 14.6% and 6.1% respectively.

Africa’s exports fell 13.5% to 1.79 million bags. Uganda was the main driver, with exports falling 30.6% to an estimated 0.7 million bags.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America fell 15.3% to 1.66 million bags. Mexico and Nicaragua drove the decline, with combined exports falling 44% to 0.41 million bags.

Soluble coffee exports fell 1.3% to 1.35 million bags. Roasted bean exports fell 32.3% to 0.05 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in July 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, a 15.4% increase from June 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

What caused the record daily price gains in July?

On July 6 and 9, the I-CIP rose 8.2% and 9.3% respectively, marking the largest daily increases in 21 years. This was driven by El Niño fears, falling stocks, wet weather in Brazil, and ICE margin hikes affecting liquidity.

How did ICE margin requirements affect the market?

ICE raised margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures from $5,685 to over $21,000 in early July. This reduced liquidity, forced position closures, and amplified price volatility.

What happened to certified coffee stocks in July?

US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024. London Robusta stocks rose slightly to 0.69 million bags. The divergence tightened Arabica supplies.

What is the El Niño outlook?

There is a 97% probability of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event during October-December 2026, potentially one of the most intense on record.

How is Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest progressing?

As of July 15, the harvest was only 64% complete, compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%, due to wet conditions that slowed harvesting and drying.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, July 2026 | Date: August 2026

Coffee Prices Soar as Brazil Harvest Slows and Inventories Tighten

Posted on August 24, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 24, 2026

Coffee Prices Soar as Brazil Harvest Slows and Inventories Tighten

Arabica surged 4.62% to a 6.75-month high.
Robusta rose 2.64% as supply remains tight.
Brazil’s harvest is 90% complete, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots.
Colombia’s earthquake still affects supplies despite partial export resumption.
El Niño concerns support prices with potential rainfall delays in Brazil.

Coffee prices surged sharply today. Arabica jumped 4.62% to a 6.75-month high. Robusta rose 2.64% as supply remains tight. The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is underpinning prices.

Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported 81.1% of the harvest was complete as of August 14. This is up 7 points from the prior week but still down from 86.1% a year earlier. Safras & Mercado reported on August 14 that Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest was 90% complete as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average. Arabica harvest was 86% complete, behind last year’s 95%.

Inventory Trends: Arabica at 2.75-Year Low

Falling inventories are bullish for arabica prices. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags last Friday. By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta. ICE robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots today.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	227,992 bags	2.75-year low
Robusta inventories	4,831 lots	8.75-month high

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of Aug 14)	81.1%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	86.1%
Brazil overall (as of Aug 12)	90%
Previous year (Aug 12)	97%
Five-year average (Aug 12)	94%
Arabica harvest (as of Aug 12)	86%
Arabica harvest previous year	95%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended Aug 16)	0.6 mm (11% of average)

Colombia Earthquake Still Affecting Supplies

Prices also have support from the devastating earthquake earlier this month in Colombia. Colombia is the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans. Among the areas hit by the 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia’s production.

Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through Buenaventura port, which handles most of its coffee exports. However, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited. According to a Bloomberg report, the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, setting the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Below-Normal Rainfall May Speed Up Harvest

Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should allow the harvest pace to speed up, a bearish factor for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported last Monday that 0.6 mm of rain, or 11% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 16 in Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-growing region.

Vietnam Exports Continue to Surge

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On August 2, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to July rose 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

USDA Forecast: Record Production

The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year, although robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise today?Arabica surged 4.62% to a 6.75-month high, and robusta rose 2.64%.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s harvest is 90% complete as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags, while robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots.

How did Colombia’s earthquake affect coffee supplies?The quake hit Caldas and Risaralda (25% of production). Exports have partially resumed through Buenaventura but remain limited.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year.

Workplace Coffee Machines May Raise Bad Cholesterol

Posted on August 24, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Uppsala University / Chalmers University of Technology / Nutrition, Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases journal
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 24, 2026

Swedish Study: Workplace Coffee Machines May Raise Bad Cholesterol

Swedish study reveals workplace coffee machines may produce natural compounds that raise bad cholesterol.
The main compounds are cafestol and kahweol, belonging to the diterpene group.
Traditional machines with metal filters produced elevated levels of these compounds.
Machines using liquid coffee concentrate recorded low levels similar to filtered coffee.
Paper-filtered and instant coffee contain very low levels of these compounds.
Researchers recommend those drinking several cups daily choose paper-filtered or instant coffee.

A recent Swedish scientific study has found that some common workplace coffee machines produce elevated levels of natural fatty compounds. These compounds may contribute to higher levels of bad cholesterol in the blood.

The study was published in the journal Nutrition, Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases. It was led by a team from Uppsala University in collaboration with Chalmers University of Technology, under the direction of researcher David Iggman.

What Are the Compounds That Raise Cholesterol?

The researchers focused on two natural compounds found in coffee: cafestol and kahweol. These belong to a group known as diterpenes. It has long been known that these compounds are present in higher amounts in unfiltered or boiled coffee. They can raise levels of LDL or “bad” cholesterol while slightly lowering HDL or “good” cholesterol. Elevated LDL is linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease over time.

How Was the Study Conducted?

The team analyzed samples from 14 coffee machines located in different workplaces, mostly healthcare facilities. Samples were collected over multiple days and compared with other common brewing methods, including paper-filtered drip coffee, French press, espresso, and boiled coffee.

**Cafestol and Kahweol Levels by Brewing Method**
Brewing Method	Compound Level
Traditional machines with metal filters (ground coffee)	High
Machines using liquid coffee concentrate	Low (similar to filtered)
Paper-filtered drip coffee	Very low
Instant coffee	Very low
French press	High
Espresso	Relatively high
Boiled coffee	High

Key Findings

Results showed that traditional machines using ground coffee beans and metal filters produced significantly higher amounts of these compounds than paper-filtered coffee. In contrast, machines using liquid coffee concentrate recorded much lower levels, similar to those found in well-filtered coffee.

Lead researcher David Iggman noted that the impact of these compounds depends largely on the amount of coffee consumed daily. He emphasized that coffee remains a beverage associated with several health benefits. Proper filtration, he added, plays a crucial role in reducing the presence of these substances.

Researcher Recommendations

The researchers recommended that people who drink several cups a day opt for paper-filtered coffee or instant coffee. Both contain very low levels of these compounds.

The findings highlight the importance of brewing method, particularly in workplace settings where many people rely on automatic coffee machines on a daily basis.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are cafestol and kahweol?They are natural compounds found in coffee, belonging to the diterpene group. They are present in higher amounts in unfiltered coffee and can raise LDL cholesterol.

Which type of coffee is safest for cholesterol?Paper-filtered coffee and instant coffee contain the lowest levels of these compounds, making them the best choice for those concerned about cholesterol levels.

Are workplace coffee machines dangerous to health?Not necessarily, but the study suggests that some machines using metal filters may produce higher levels of cholesterol-raising compounds. Paper filtration significantly reduces these compounds.

Should I stop drinking coffee?No. The study confirms that coffee remains a beverage associated with multiple health benefits. The solution is to choose a brewing method that reduces these compounds, such as paper filtration or instant coffee.

How much coffee is considered safe?The impact of these compounds depends on daily consumption. Researchers recommend those drinking several cups daily choose paper-filtered or instant coffee to minimize risk.

Does instant coffee contain cafestol?No, instant coffee does not contain cafestol or kahweol, making it a safe choice regarding cholesterol.

Arabica Prices Rise as Colombian Earthquake Disrupts Supplies

Posted on August 12, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 11, 2026

Arabica Prices Rise as Colombian Earthquake Disrupts Supplies

September arabica surged 1.04% to a 5-week high on Tuesday.
A 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit Colombia’s coffee-growing provinces on Monday.
Caldas and Risaralda, accounting for 25% of Colombia’s production, were affected.
Maersk temporarily suspended terminal operations in Buenaventura port.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 241,838 bags.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.75-month high of 4,352 lots.
USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27.

Arabica coffee settled sharply higher on Tuesday. September arabica closed up 3.45 cents, gaining 1.04% to a 5-week nearest-futures high. September robusta closed down 24 points, a decline of 0.63%. Prices settled mixed as diverging factors drove the two markets in opposite directions.

Arabica rallied on Tuesday amid concerns that a massive earthquake that hit Colombia on Monday will disrupt coffee supplies from the country. Colombia is the world’s second-largest producer of arabica coffee beans.

Colombian Earthquake Disrupts Coffee Production

Among the areas hit by Monday’s 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda. These provinces account for about a quarter of Colombia’s production. The earthquake has raised concerns about damage to coffee infrastructure and potential supply disruptions.

Shipping firm Maersk said Tuesday that terminal operations in Buenaventura have been “temporarily suspended.” Buenaventura handles most of Colombia’s coffee exports. Additionally, inland road closures and traffic restrictions due to the earthquake may impact cargo movements.

**Key Factors Driving Arabica Price Rally**
Factor	Impact
Colombian earthquake (7.4 magnitude)	Affected Caldas & Risaralda (25% of production)
Buenaventura port operations	Suspended by Maersk
Inland road closures	Impact on cargo movements
ICE arabica inventories	2.5-year low (241,838 bags)
Brazil harvest pace	67.3% vs 74.2% last year

Inventory Trends: Arabica Low, Robusta High

Rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee. ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.75-month high of 4,352 lots on Tuesday. By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 241,838 bags on Tuesday. This tight supply situation provides strong support for arabica prices.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	241,838 bags	2.5-year low
Robusta inventories	4,352 lots	4.75-month high

Brazil Harvest and Weather

Arabica also has support due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest. The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 67.3% complete as of July 31. This is behind the year-earlier pace of 74.2%. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%.

Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should allow for the harvest pace to speed up. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 5.8 mm of rain, or 92% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 9 in Brazil’s Minas Gerais. This is the country’s main arabica-growing region.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of July 31)	67.3%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	74.2%
Brazil overall (as of July 15)	64%
Previous year (July 15)	77%
Five-year average (July 15)	70%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended Aug 9)	5.8 mm (92% of avg)

USDA Forecast: Record Production

The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags. The increase is mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year. However, robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil. This September and October is when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Vietnam Exports Continue to Surge

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On August 2, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to July rose 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did arabica coffee prices rise on Tuesday?Arabica surged 1.04% to a 5-week high as a 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit Colombia’s coffee-growing provinces, disrupting supply from the world’s second-largest arabica producer.

What areas of Colombia were affected by the earthquake?The coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda were hit, accounting for about 25% of Colombia’s coffee production.

How did the earthquake affect coffee exports?Maersk suspended terminal operations in Buenaventura port, which handles most of Colombia’s coffee exports. Inland road closures may also impact cargo movements.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 241,838 bags, while robusta inventories climbed to a 4.75-month high of 4,352 lots.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year, led by Brazil’s recovery.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

Coffee Not a Heart Risk: AHA Sets Safe Caffeine Limit

Posted on August 10, 2026August 12, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: American Heart Association / Circulation journal
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 10, 2026

Coffee Not a Heart Risk: AHA Sets Safe Caffeine Limit

AHA recommends up to 400mg of caffeine daily for most adults.
That equals about 5 cups of brewed coffee (8 oz per cup).
Plain black coffee linked to lower risk of type 2 diabetes.
Filtered coffee better for cholesterol; unfiltered may raise LDL.
Energy drinks are not like coffee and may cause BP spikes and arrhythmias.
Pregnant women and those with palpitations or uncontrolled BP should consult doctors.

Cardiologists have long treated coffee with caution. The reason was caffeine’s temporary effect on heart rate and blood pressure. However, this position is beginning to change.

According to a new scientific statement from the American Heart Association, moderate caffeine consumption appears safe for most adults. This applies especially to coffee. It may even be linked to cardiovascular benefits for some people.

Dr. Kelley Chen interventional cardiologist at Henry Ford Health’s Genesis Heart Center, noted that caffeine has long had a bad reputation when it comes to heart health.

What Is the Safe Amount for Most Adults?

The statement sets 400mg of caffeine daily as a typical upper limit for most healthy adults. This equals about five 8-ounce cups of regular brewed coffee. However, caffeine content varies depending on coffee type, preparation method, and cup size.

Regular brewed coffee contains about 9.4 to 20.6mg of caffeine per fluid ounce. This means the amount can vary significantly. The evidence reviewed suggests the clearest results are linked to coffee itself. But adding large amounts of sugar and flavored syrups may reduce any potential health benefits.

**Recommended Caffeine Limits by Source**
Source	Approximate Caffeine	Note
Daily upper limit	400 mg	For most healthy adults
Brewed coffee (8 oz)	75 – 165 mg	Varies by type and preparation
Instant coffee (8 oz)	30 – 90 mg	Lower caffeine than brewed
Espresso (single shot)	45 – 75 mg	Higher concentration per ounce
Energy drinks (can)	Varies widely	May contain very high doses

Blood Pressure: Different Effects by Consumption Level

Coffee can raise blood pressure in the short term. However, long-term consumption results appear more complex. The statement cites research finding that one to three cups of caffeinated coffee daily was linked to increased hypertension risk among people with ideal blood pressure. In contrast, drinking more than three cups daily was linked to lower hypertension risk in some studies.

Type 2 Diabetes: Black Coffee Showed Strongest Link

For type 2 diabetes, the statement reviews evidence linking black caffeinated coffee consumption to lower diabetes risk. This applies when consumed without cream, sweeteners, or flavorings. However, caffeine may reduce insulin sensitivity in the short term. Therefore, researchers caution that the protective association may come from other compounds in coffee, not caffeine alone.

Cholesterol: Filtered Coffee Appears Better

Brewing method matters for cholesterol too. Randomized trial data indicates that cafestol, a compound in coffee, can raise LDL cholesterol levels. Cafestol is found in unfiltered coffee like espresso, French press, Turkish coffee, and boiled coffee. Most of this compound is removed when using paper filters. It is also absent from instant coffee, according to the statement.

Heart Rhythm: No Increase in Atrial Fibrillation, But a Note

The AHA statement indicates that research analyses found one to three cups of caffeinated coffee daily were not linked to increased risk of atrial fibrillation or heart rhythm disorders. However, randomized trials also found a link between coffee caffeine and increased premature ventricular contractions. These are extra heartbeats generally not dangerous. However, they may cause palpitations or anxiety in some people.

The Most Important Warning: Energy Drinks Are Not Like Coffee

A large portion of research focuses on coffee as the world’s most consumed caffeinated beverage. However, caffeinated energy drinks have not received the same level of study. Therefore, caffeine recommendations for coffee should not necessarily apply to all caffeine sources.

The AHA also warns that some concentrated energy shots may contain much higher caffeine per ounce than regular coffee. Their consumption has been linked to increased risk of high blood pressure and heart rhythm disorders.

Conclusion: What This Means for Coffee Lovers

For most adults, the AHA indicates that up to 400mg of caffeine daily is generally safe. Coffee consumption may be linked to lower risk of heart disease, stroke, and heart failure in some people. The potential benefits are more strongly associated with unsweetened coffee. Sugar and high-calorie additives can change the nutritional profile.

People with heart palpitations, sleep disorders, pregnant women, and those with uncontrolled high blood pressure should discuss appropriate caffeine amounts with their doctor.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the safe daily caffeine limit?AHA recommends 400mg of caffeine daily as an upper limit for most healthy adults, equal to about 5 cups of brewed coffee.

Is coffee good for blood pressure?Coffee may temporarily raise blood pressure, but studies suggest drinking over 3 cups daily may be linked to lower long-term hypertension risk.

What’s the difference between filtered and unfiltered coffee for cholesterol?Unfiltered coffee contains cafestol, which may raise LDL cholesterol. Paper filters remove most of it, and instant coffee contains none.

Are energy drinks as safe as coffee?No. Energy drinks contain much higher caffeine per ounce and have been linked to high blood pressure and heart rhythm disorders. They are not a substitute for coffee.

Does coffee cause heart palpitations?Coffee may cause premature ventricular contractions in some people. These extra beats are generally not dangerous but may cause palpitations or anxiety.

Who should consult a doctor about coffee?Pregnant women, people with palpitations, sleep disorders, or uncontrolled high blood pressure should discuss appropriate caffeine intake with their doctor.

Arabica Coffee Surges on Dollar Weakness and Tight ICE Inventories

Posted on August 9, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 7, 2026

Arabica Coffee Surges on Dollar Weakness and Tight ICE Inventories

September arabica surged 4.32% on Friday to a 1-week high.
September robusta eased 0.29% as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.5-month high.
The dollar index fell to a 7-week low, providing bullish support for coffee prices.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 244,172 bags on Friday.
Brazil’s coffee harvest is behind schedule, with Cooxupe at 67.3% vs 74.2% last year.
No rain fell in Minas Gerais in the week ended August 2.
USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27.

Arabica coffee surged sharply higher on Friday. September arabica closed up 13.90 cents, gaining 4.32% to a 1-week high. September robusta closed down 11 points, a decline of 0.29%. Prices settled mixed as diverging inventory trends drove the two markets in opposite directions.

Friday’s decline in the dollar index to a 7-week low provided strong bullish support for coffee prices. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to foreign buyers. Additionally, arabica supplies continue to tighten as ICE-monitored inventories fell to a 2.5-year low.

Dollar Weakness and Inventory Trends

The dollar index ($DXY) fell to a 7-week low on Friday. This is bullish for coffee prices. A weaker dollar boosts demand from international buyers. It also supports higher prices across commodity markets.

Arabica coffee supplies continue to tighten. ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 244,172 bags on Friday. This tight supply situation provides strong support for arabica prices. In contrast, robusta inventories climbed to a 4.5-month high of 4,261 lots on Friday. This has weighed on robusta prices.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	244,172 bags	2.5-year low
Robusta inventories	4,261 lots	4.5-month high

Brazil Harvest Delays

Arabica prices have support from the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest. The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 67.3% complete as of July 31. This is behind the year-earlier pace of 74.2%. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%.

On Monday, Somar Meteorologia reported that no rain fell in the week ended August 2 in Brazil’s Minas Gerais. This is the country’s main arabica-growing region. Dry conditions may help the harvest pace improve.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of July 31)	67.3%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	74.2%
Brazil overall (as of July 15)	64%
Previous year (July 15)	77%
Five-year average (July 15)	70%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended Aug 2)	0 mm

USDA Forecast: Record Production

The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags. The increase is mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year. However, robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Vietnam Exports Continue to Surge

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On Sunday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to July rose 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did arabica coffee surge on Friday?Arabica surged 4.32% as the dollar index fell to a 7-week low and ICE inventories hit a 2.5-year low.

What happened to robusta coffee prices?September robusta eased 0.29% as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.5-month high of 4,261 lots.

What is the dollar index level?The dollar index fell to a 7-week low on Friday, providing bullish support for coffee prices.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s harvest is 67.3% complete through Cooxupe, behind last year’s 74.2% pace.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

Tanzania 2026 Harvest Update: Arabica and Robusta Progress

Posted on August 5, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Sucafina / Cotacof (Sucafina Tanzania)
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 5, 2026

Tanzania 2026 Harvest Update: Arabica and Robusta Progress

Tanzania’s 2026 coffee crop is expected to be 4-5% larger than last season.
New plantations entering production and improved farm management drive the growth.
Arabica harvest is approximately 40% complete, with peak picking over the next 2-3 weeks.
Robusta harvest is 80-90% complete, with 25-30% commercialized so far.
Processing infrastructure faces pressure from higher volumes, with washing stations at full capacity.
Sucafina works with 15 AMCOS cooperatives through its Loyalty Program in Tanzania.
Community projects include hospital upgrades and school improvements.

Tanzania’s 2026 coffee harvest is in full swing. Arabica and Robusta crops are progressing in line with expectations. Stronger volumes are testing processing infrastructure. However, quality remains stable.

New plantations are maturing and entering production. Established farms are also improving yields. These factors contribute to a larger crop volume this season.

Arabica Outlook

Tanzania’s Arabica harvest is currently around 40% complete. Most farms are approaching peak picking over the next two to three weeks. Volumes are tracking slightly above last season.

Overall production is expected to increase by 4-5%. This aligns with our forecast. New plantations are reaching their first and second harvests. Older farms have improved yields over the past three years. The market rally incentivized better farm management.

Early quality assessments suggest a profile consistent with expectations. “What we’ve analyzed so far looks similar to last season’s. There are no red flags, and we expect the crop to deliver decent quality overall,” says Kihara Victor, Trading Manager at Cotacof (Sucafina in Tanzania).

**Tanzania 2026 Harvest Progress**
Crop	Progress	Notes
Arabica	~40% complete	Peak picking in next 2-3 weeks
Robusta	80-90% complete	25-30% commercialized
Overall Volume	+4-5% vs last season	Driven by new plantations and improved yields

Robusta Outlook

The Robusta harvest is more advanced. It is currently 80-90% complete. However, only 25-30% has been commercialized so far. The main focus now is on drying the coffee to be ready for auctions.

Quality is expected to remain consistent with last year. This depends on maintaining processing timelines. Drying capacity must also keep pace with incoming cherry.

Processing Capacity: Challenges and Opportunities

Higher volumes are creating pressure across the supply chain. Producers face labor shortages during peak harvest. Processors are running washing stations around the clock. They are also building more drying tables.

“The standout of this year’s harvest is the scale,” Kihara says. “Cooperatives are running washing stations at full capacity – and some are over capacity. This is something we haven’t seen to this extent in Tanzania before, even with steady volume growth in recent years. It reflects the combined impact of new plantations coming online, alongside improving yields on older farms.”

Support from the Tanzania Coffee Board and exporters is enabling cooperatives to expand their drying capacity. This helps manage throughput and maintain quality. “It’s a real signal that infrastructure investment will need to keep pace with production growth in coming seasons,” Kihara notes.

**Processing and Quality Indicators**
Indicator	Status
Washing stations	Running at full capacity, some over capacity
Drying capacity	Expanding with support from Coffee Board
Arabica quality	Consistent with last season
Robusta quality	Expected consistent with last year
Labor availability	Shortages during peak harvest

Strengthening Resilience in Coffee Communities

Sucafina continues to invest in projects that help farmers, cooperatives, and communities build resilience. The company now works with 15 AMCOS through its Loyalty Program. This program incentivizes improvements in yield, quality, and farming practices.

Sucafina launched a new pilot project with a partner. The project supports four AMCOS with prefinancing for inputs and working capital during the season. “The aim is to help cooperatives strengthen their operations, improve access to finance, and ensure they can continue to purchase coffee from farmers and run washing stations to the highest standards,” Kihara explains. “The funds are already being distributed, and we plan to expand this project.”

In 2026, Sucafina partnered with five AMCOS in the Loyalty Program to fund key community projects. These initiatives include upgrades to hospital beds and improvements to local schools, including building bathrooms. These projects help enhance community wellbeing.

To ensure continued access to responsibly sourced coffees, Sucafina expects to complete IMPACT re-verification this year. This includes Rainforest Alliance and C.A.F.E. Practices verification.

Outlook and Next Steps

Tanzania’s 2026 harvest reflects a sector in transition. Rising production is placing demands on supply chain infrastructure. Early indications suggest these challenges are being managed effectively. Quality is expected to remain stable.

If you are planning to book coffees from Tanzania or support sustainability initiatives, now is a good time to reach out to your trader. Discuss availability and booking options.

Frequently Asked Questions

How large is Tanzania’s 2026 coffee crop expected to be?The 2026 crop is expected to be 4-5% larger than last season, driven by new plantations and improved farm management.

What is the progress of the Arabica harvest?The Arabica harvest is approximately 40% complete, with peak picking expected over the next two to three weeks.

What is the progress of the Robusta harvest?The Robusta harvest is 80-90% complete, with 25-30% commercialized so far.

How is quality expected to compare to last season?Both Arabica and Robusta quality are expected to remain consistent with last season, provided processing timelines are maintained.

What is Sucafina’s involvement in Tanzania?Sucafina works with 15 AMCOS cooperatives through its Loyalty Program, supporting yield improvements, quality, community projects, and sustainability verification.

What community projects are being supported?Projects include upgrades to hospital beds and improvements to local schools, including building bathrooms, to enhance community wellbeing.