Tag: robusta

Coffee Prices Fall 8.7% as Brazil’s Record Crop Arrives

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, September 2026
Date: October 2026

Coffee Prices Fall 8.7% as Brazil’s Record Crop Arrives

Executive Summary

  • The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 262.18 US cents/lb in September 2026, down 8.7% from August.
  • All four ICO group indicators declined, with Brazilian Naturals falling the most at 9.9%.
  • Brazil’s record crop reaching the market increased availability and weighed on prices.
  • Low certified Arabica stocks and El Niño uncertainty provided some support but could not halt the decline.
  • Global green bean exports rose 15.6% to 10.94 million bags in August, driven by Robustas and Brazilian Naturals.
  • For the first time on record, the Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell below 60% for the first 11 months of a coffee year.
  • The ICO launched a new Coffee Market Intelligence Platform (data.ico.org) to make market data more accessible.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 262.18 US cents per pound in September 2026. This was an 8.7% decrease from August 2026.

Prices ranged between 248.44 and 279.85 US cents/lb. The month opened at its high and closed at 261.60 US cents/lb on September 30, which was 7.0% below the August close of 281.15.

The decline was broad-based. Every ICO group indicator fell by between 7.3% and 9.9%. The largest fall was in Brazilian Naturals, the group most directly exposed to Brazil’s harvest.

Increased availability from Brazil’s record crop and expectations of ample supply weighed on prices. Low certified Arabica stocks and uncertainty surrounding El Niño provided some support. However, these factors were not enough to reverse the downward trend.

Price Movements Across Groups

Brazilian Naturals prices fell 9.9% to 290.19 US cents/lb. Colombian Milds declined 8.1% to 356.15 US cents/lb. Other Milds dropped 8.8% to 329.44 US cents/lb.

Robustas declined 7.3% to 167.49 US cents/lb. On the futures markets, London ICE Robusta prices fell 8.0% to 154.28 US cents/lb. New York ICE Arabica prices dropped 10.4% to 280.68 US cents/lb.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets narrowed 13.2% to 126.40 US cents/lb. Every Arabica-Robusta differential narrowed. This reflects the larger percentage declines in Arabica prices as Brazil’s much larger Arabica crop of 46.3 million bags reached the market.

Meanwhile, CONAB’s lower Robusta estimate and the early-month resilience of Robusta cushioned its prices. Brazil’s Robusta crop is estimated at a record 25.1 million bags, up 11.1%.

Volatility also declined. The I-CIP volatility was 10.0% in September, 3.7 percentage points below August’s 13.7%. New York and London futures volatility stood at 13.4% and 9.7% respectively.

Certified Stocks Rise Modestly

US certified Arabica stocks rose to 0.27 million bags at the end of September. This was up from 0.24 million bags at the end of August.

London certified Robusta stocks rose to a 10-month high of 0.87 million bags. This was up from 0.83 million bags at the end of August.

Despite these increases, Arabica stocks remain historically low. The modest recovery did not offset the broader bearish sentiment driven by Brazil’s record crop.

Exports: Strong August Growth

Global green bean exports totaled 10.94 million bags in August 2026. This was a 15.6% increase from 9.46 million bags in August 2025.

The August upturn was in sharp contrast to the usual seasonal decline between July and August. This helped explain the double-digit growth rate.

Robusta green bean exports increased 22.4% to 4.36 million bags. Brazilian Naturals rose 21.3% to 3.57 million bags. Other Milds increased 6.6% to 1.91 million bags.

Colombian Milds were the only group to record a decline. Exports fell 5.6% to 1.09 million bags. This marked the group’s 10th month of negative growth in the current coffee year.

Total Arabica exports increased to 6.58 million bags, up 11.6% from 5.89 million bags in August 2025. Despite this, the Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 59.6% from 63.5% a year earlier.

This marked the first time on record that the Arabica share fell below 60% for the volume shipped in the first 11 months of a coffee year.

Robusta’s share of world production is estimated to have risen to 43.1% of total output in 2025/26. This is up from an average of 41.7% in 2023/24 to 2024/25. This larger share and changing tastes among some coffee drinkers may help explain the shift in export composition.

Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60 kg bags)

Coffee Group August 2025 August 2026 Change
Robustas 3.57 4.36 +22.4%
Brazilian Naturals 2.94 3.57 +21.3%
Other Milds 1.79 1.91 +6.6%
Colombian Milds 1.16 1.09 -5.6%

Exports by Region

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 14.6% to 12.55 million bags in August 2026. This was up from 10.95 million bags in August 2025.

South America was the main driver of the August upturn. Exports rose 20.2% to 5.98 million bags. Brazil led with a 34.5% increase to 4.28 million bags. This was Brazil’s fifth consecutive month of positive growth.

Asia & Oceania exports rose 23.1% to 4.03 million bags. Vietnam led with a 48.0% increase to 2.24 million bags.

Africa’s exports fell 1.8% to 1.74 million bags. This marked the sixth consecutive month of negative growth. Uganda drove the decline with an 8.8% drop to an estimated 0.78 million bags.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America fell 14.3% to 0.79 million bags. This was the fourth consecutive month of negative growth, driven mainly by Nicaragua and Mexico.

Soluble coffee exports rose 8.1% to 1.56 million bags. Vietnam was the largest exporter with 0.43 million bags. Roasted bean exports were unchanged at 0.05 million bags.

New Market Intelligence Platform

In September, the ICO launched the Coffee Market Intelligence Platform at data.ico.org. It is a free-to-view interactive tool combining daily market indicators with data on monthly trade, annual production and consumption.

The platform’s basic dashboards are available free of charge to all users. They provide visibility of current-year prices and stock data, as well as aggregated trade and production statistics for the current and previous years.

ICO Members also have free access to historical data dating back to 1963. Commercial organizations requiring detailed historical data or bulk datasets can purchase an annual statistical subscription.

The platform was unveiled at a press conference in Geneva during the 142nd Session of the International Coffee Council. The launch came ahead of the first UN-recognized International Coffee Day on 1 October.

The aim is to make coffee market data more accessible. The platform will run in parallel to the existing ICO World Coffee Statistical Database for a few months before the latter is phased out.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices fall in September 2026?

The ICO composite price fell 8.7% to 262.18 US cents/lb, down from 287.29 US cents/lb in August.

What caused the decline?

Increased availability from Brazil’s record crop and expectations of ample supply weighed on prices. Low certified Arabica stocks and El Niño uncertainty provided only limited support.

How did the different coffee groups perform?

All four groups declined. Brazilian Naturals fell 9.9%, Other Milds 8.8%, Colombian Milds 8.1%, and Robustas 7.3%.

What happened to the Arabica share of exports?

The Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 59.6% from 63.5%. This was the first time on record it fell below 60% for the first 11 months of a coffee year.

How did certified stocks change?

US certified Arabica stocks rose modestly to 0.27 million bags. London certified Robusta stocks rose to a 10-month high of 0.87 million bags.

What is the new ICO platform?

The Coffee Market Intelligence Platform (data.ico.org) is a free-to-view interactive tool combining daily market indicators with monthly trade, annual production and consumption data.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, September 2026 | Date: October 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report August 2026: Prices Hold Steady

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, August 2026
Date: September 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report August 2026: Prices Hold Steady

Executive Summary

  • The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.29 US cents/lb in August 2026, effectively unchanged from July (287.26 US cents/lb).
  • A mid-month rally, driven by El Niño fears and tight Arabica supplies, was reversed by favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of increased supply.
  • Colombian Milds rose 1.1% to 387.46 US cents/lb, while Other Milds gained 0.7% to 361.31 US cents/lb. Robustas fell 2.2% to 180.63 US cents/lb.
  • US certified Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags, the lowest level since 1999. London Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags, a nine-month high.
  • Global green bean exports rose 6.3% to 10.76 million bags in July, driven entirely by a 32% surge in Robusta shipments.
  • World coffee production is estimated to rise 4.4% to 183.6 million bags in 2025/26, while consumption is projected to decline 0.8%.
  • The global market is projected to record a surplus of 3.0 million bags in 2025/26, the first after four consecutive years of deficit.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.29 US cents per pound in August 2026. This was effectively unchanged from July 2026, when it averaged 287.26 US cents per pound.

The month followed an inverted V-shaped pattern. Prices softened early, then rallied from August 17 to 25. A sharp correction on August 26 and 27 brought the indicator back to its opening level.

The mid-month rally was driven by heightened expectations of a strong El Niño event. These concerns were compounded by historically low certified Arabica stocks. Prices eased toward the end of the month as favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of a substantial surplus reduced the risk premium.

Price Movements and Market Volatility

Colombian Milds and Other Milds recorded modest gains. Colombian Milds rose 1.1% to average 387.46 US cents/lb. Other Milds increased 0.7% to 361.31 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals edged up 0.5% to 322.24 US cents/lb.

In contrast, Robustas declined 2.2% to 180.63 US cents/lb. On the futures markets, London ICE Robusta prices fell 3.0% to 167.63 US cents/lb. New York ICE Arabica prices expanded 0.9% to 313.20 US cents/lb.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets expanded 5.8% to 145.56 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential widened 5.7% to 26.15 US cents/lb.

Volatility declined across most indicators. The intra-day volatility of the I-CIP stood at 13.7% in August, a 1.3 percentage point decrease from July. Colombian Milds volatility fell to 14.6%, while Other Milds dropped to 15.7%.

Brazilian Naturals volatility decreased 1.6 percentage points to 16.3%. Robusta volatility remained stable at 11.0%. At the New York and London futures markets, volatilities were 19.9% and 13.2%, respectively.

Diverging Certified Stocks

Certified stocks diverged sharply between the two futures markets. London certified Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags. This was their highest level in nine months.

In contrast, US certified Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags. This was the lowest level since 1999. It is approximately 68% below the level held a year earlier.

Several factors drove this divergence. El Niño risks raised concerns about future Arabica supplies. At the same time, disruption in Colombia and slower harvesting in Brazil limited near-term availability. A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck western Colombia on August 10, halting operations at the Pacific port of Buenaventura.

Brazil’s harvest also lagged behind its historical pace. Safras & Mercado reported that the 2026/27 harvest was 90% complete as of August 12, against 97% a year earlier and a five-year average of 94%.

Exports by Coffee Group

Global green bean exports totaled 10.76 million bags in July 2026. This was a 6.3% increase from 10.12 million bags in July 2025. It marked the fourth month of positive year-on-year growth in the first 10 months of 2025/26.

The increase was driven entirely by Robustas. Robusta green bean exports surged 32.0% to 4.98 million bags. Vietnam led the increase with a 87.4% jump to 2.4 million bags. Brazil also contributed, with its Robusta exports up 83.7% to 0.86 million bags.

In contrast, all Arabica groups recorded declines. Colombian Milds exports fell 11.1% to 1.04 million bags. Brazilian Naturals decreased 10.0% to 2.46 million bags. Other Milds fell 6.7% to 2.27 million bags.

Total Arabica exports decreased to 5.78 million bags in July 2026. This was down 8.9% from 6.35 million bags in July 2025. As a result, the Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 59.7% from 63.6% a year earlier.

Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60 kg bags)

Coffee Group July 2025 July 2026 Change
Robustas 3.77 4.98 +32.0%
Colombian Milds 1.17 1.04 -11.1%
Other Milds 2.44 2.27 -6.7%
Brazilian Naturals 2.74 2.46 -10.0%

Exports by Region

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 3.3% to 12.23 million bags in July 2026. Two of the four regions recorded increases. Asia & Oceania and South America posted gains, while Africa and the Caribbean, Mexico & Central America recorded declines.

Asia & Oceania led the upturn with a 17.6% increase to 4.38 million bags. Vietnam was the main driver, with exports up 43.7% to 2.83 million bags. The region’s year-to-date exports rose to 43.59 million bags.

South America’s exports increased 3.1% to 4.57 million bags. This was the third consecutive month of positive growth. Brazil drove the increase with a 10.9% rise to 3.06 million bags. However, Colombia partly offset this with a 14.7% decline to 1.01 million bags.

Africa’s exports decreased 6.7% to 1.90 million bags. Ethiopia and Uganda drove the decline, with combined exports falling 15.9% to an estimated 1.52 million bags. Uganda’s decline follows a record performance in 2024/25 and may reflect normalization from an exceptionally high benchmark.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America decreased 15.9% to 1.39 million bags. This was the third consecutive month of negative growth, driven mainly by Mexico and Nicaragua.

Soluble coffee exports decreased 16.7% to 1.4 million bags in July 2026. Roasted bean exports rose 70.6% to 0.07 million bags.

Global Supply and Demand Outlook

The ICO published updated supply and demand statistics on September 10, 2026. World coffee production increased 2.5% to 175.9 million bags in 2024/25. For 2025/26, production is estimated to rise 4.4% to 183.6 million bags.

Arabica production is projected to increase 2.8% to 104.4 million bags in 2025/26. This reflects the higher-yielding phase of the biennial cycle in South America. Robusta output is estimated to jump 6.5% to 79.2 million bags.

South America remains the world’s largest producer, with an estimated output of 84.1 million bags. This represents 45.8% of global production. Asia & Oceania follows with 29.7%, then Africa with 13.6% and the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico with 10.8%.

World coffee consumption increased 4.3% to 182.2 million bags in 2024/25. Growth was mainly driven by North America and Europe. In 2025/26, consumption is estimated to decline 0.8%, partly reflecting normalization after unusually strong growth.

Europe remained the largest consuming region, accounting for 30.1% of global consumption in 2024/25. South America is estimated to overtake North America as the third-largest consuming region in 2025/26.

Following four consecutive years of deficit from 2021/22 to 2024/25, the global coffee market is projected to record a surplus of 3.0 million bags in 2025/26.

Table 2: World Supply, Demand and Balance (million 60 kg bags)

Item 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26
Arabica Production 101.1 101.6 104.4
Robusta Production 70.5 74.4 79.2
Total Production 171.6 175.9 183.6
Consumption 174.6 182.2 180.6
Balance -3.0 -6.3 +3.0

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in August 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 287.29 US cents/lb in August 2026, effectively unchanged from July 2026 (287.26 US cents/lb).

What caused the mid-month price rally and subsequent correction?

A rally from August 17 to 25 was driven by El Niño fears and tight Arabica supplies. It was reversed by favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of a substantial surplus.

Why did certified coffee stocks diverge?

US Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags (lowest since 1999) due to El Niño risks and supply disruptions. London Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags.

How did coffee exports perform in July 2026?

Global green bean exports rose 6.3% to 10.76 million bags. Robusta exports surged 32%, while all Arabica groups declined.

What is the global supply and demand outlook?

World production is estimated at 183.6 million bags in 2025/26 (+4.4%), with consumption at 180.6 million bags (-0.8%). This results in a surplus of 3.0 million bags.

What was the key development in certified stocks?

US certified Arabica stocks fell to their lowest level since 1999 at 0.24 million bags, while London Robusta stocks reached a nine-month high of 0.83 million bags.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, August 2026 | Date: September 2026

Coffee Prices Record Largest Monthly Surge Since 2021

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, July 2026
Date: August 2026According to recent reports, coffee prices experienced the largest monthly surge in 2026.

Coffee Prices Record Largest Monthly Surge Since 2021

Executive Summary

  • The ICO composite price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.
  • Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta: Colombian Milds +18.1%, Brazilian Naturals +17.9%, Robustas +9.1%.
  • Record daily gains of 8.2% (July 6) and 9.3% (July 9) marked the largest increases in 21 years.
  • El Niño probability reached 97% through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event.
  • Brazil’s harvest was only 64% complete by July 15, below the 5‑year average of 70%, due to wet conditions.
  • US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024.
  • London Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags, widening the price gap between the two varieties.

Global coffee prices recorded their largest monthly increase since 2021 in July 2026. The ICO Composite Indicator Price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents per pound.

Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta. Colombian Milds increased 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb. Other Milds increased 16.5% to 358.65 US cents/lb. Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.

The price rally was driven by several factors. Weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tightening Arabica supplies all played a role.

On July 6, the composite price rose 8.2% in a single day. On July 9, it rose another 9.3%. These were the largest daily increases observed in 21 years.

El Niño fears intensified significantly. On July 9, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97% probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027. There was also an 81% probability of a very strong event during October-December 2026.

This outlook pointed to increased risks of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies. These could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and 2027.

Weather factors were a key driver. Unusually wet conditions in parts of Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying operations. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s harvest was only 64% complete as of July 15. This compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%.

Wet conditions also caused uneven maturation. Multiple flowering cycles led to cherries at different stages of ripeness. This required more selective picking and sorting, making harvesting slower and more costly.

US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags in July. This was their lowest level since January 2024. The decline signaled significantly tighter immediately deliverable supplies of Arabica.

In contrast, London certified Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags. This divergence widened the price gap between Arabica and Robusta and increased the price differentials.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 0.98 million bags on July 31. This signaled limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions.

Table 1: Key Price Movements (US cents/lb)

Indicator June 2026 July 2026 Change
ICO Composite 248.90 287.26 +15.4%
Colombian Milds 324.60 383.39 +18.1%
Brazilian Naturals 272.01 320.69 +17.9%
Robustas 169.39 184.78 +9.1%

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise in July 2026?

The ICO composite price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents/lb, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

What caused the price surge?

El Niño fears (97% probability), wet weather in Brazil slowing the harvest, and falling Arabica stocks were the main drivers.

How did Arabica and Robusta prices perform differently?

Arabica prices rose faster (+18.1% for Colombian Milds) while Robusta rose 9.1%, widening the price gap.

What happened to certified coffee stocks?

US Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags (lowest since Jan 2024), while London Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags.

What is the El Niño outlook?

There is a 97% probability of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027, with an 81% chance of a very strong event in late 2026.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, July 2026 | Date: August 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026: Prices Surge 15.4% on Supply Fears

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, July 2026
Date: August 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026: Prices Surge 15.4% on Supply Fears

Executive Summary

  • The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, up 15.4% from June, with Arabica prices outpacing Robusta.
  • Record daily gains of 8.2% on July 6 and 9.3% on July 9 marked the largest increases in 21 years.
  • Colombian Milds rose 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb; Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb; Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.
  • US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024, tightening immediately deliverable supplies.
  • ICE margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures surged from $5,685 to over $21,000 in early July, reducing liquidity and amplifying volatility.
  • El Niño probability reached 97% through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event, heightening supply concerns.
  • Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest was only 64% complete by July 15, below the 5‑year average of 70%, due to wet conditions.
  • Global green bean exports rose 0.8% to 10.48 million bags in June, driven by Brazilian Naturals (+7.1%).

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents per pound in July 2026. This was a 15.4% increase from June 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta prices. The Colombian Milds increased 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb. The Other Milds increased 16.5% to 358.65 US cents/lb. Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.

The widening price gap was reflected in higher differentials. The arbitrage between New York and London futures markets expanded by 36.4% to 137.61 US cents/lb.

Volatility also rose sharply. On July 6, the I-CIP rose 8.2% in a single day. On July 9, it rose another 9.3%. Together, these were the largest daily increases observed in 21 years.

Several factors contributed to the price surge. Weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tightening Arabica supplies all played a role. US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest level since January 2024.

ICE Margin Requirements and Market Liquidity

In response to heightened market risk, ICE Futures U.S. increased margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures multiple times in early July. The margin rate for the September 2026 contract rose from $5,685 before July to $14,715 on July 6, and then to $21,116 on July 9.

It was subsequently reduced to $14,606 on July 24. However, it remained well above its pre-July level. These adjustments affected financing requirements, market participation, and liquidity.

Higher margins require participants to provide more collateral. This reduces leverage and may discourage highly leveraged positions. It also strengthens protection against losses if a participant defaults.

However, it may also force positions to be closed. This reduces liquidity and can temporarily amplify price movements. The sharp price increases on July 6 and 9 may have been amplified by these liquidity effects.

Systematic and momentum-driven buying also played a role. Short covering, fueled by concerns over declining ICE-certified stocks, reinforced the upward price pressure. Thin liquidity made the market more susceptible to sharp movements.

Weather and El Niño Concerns

Weather factors were a key driver of July’s price movements. Unusually wet conditions in parts of Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying operations. This raised concerns about coffee quality.

On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was only 64% complete as of July 15. This compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%.

Wet conditions also caused uneven maturation. Multiple flowering cycles led to cherries at different stages of ripeness. This required more selective picking and sorting, making harvesting slower and more costly.

Meanwhile, the El Niño outlook strengthened significantly. On July 9, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97% probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027.

There was also an 81% probability of a very strong event during October-December 2026. This could rank among the most intense El Niño events recorded since 1950.

This outlook pointed to increased risks of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies. These could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and 2027.

Certified Stocks and Supply Tightness

London certified Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags in July. In contrast, US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags. This was their lowest level since January 2024.

This divergence indicated significantly tighter immediately deliverable supplies of Arabica. This supported higher Arabica prices relative to Robusta. It also contributed to the widening differentials between the two markets.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 0.98 million bags on July 31. This decline signaled limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions. It amplified the market’s response to weather and El Niño concerns.

Table 1: ICO Indicator Prices and Futures (US cents/lb)

Indicator June 2026 July 2026 Change
ICO Composite 248.90 287.26 +15.4%
Colombian Milds 324.60 383.39 +18.1%
Other Milds 307.83 358.65 +16.5%
Brazilian Naturals 272.01 320.69 +17.9%
Robustas 169.39 184.78 +9.1%
New York ICE (Arabica) 256.75 310.34 +20.9%
London ICE (Robusta) 155.90 172.73 +10.8%

Green Bean Exports: Mixed Performance by Group

Global green bean exports totaled 10.48 million bags in June 2026. This was a 0.8% increase compared to 10.4 million bags in June 2025.

Brazilian Naturals exports rose 7.1% to 2.76 million bags. This was the first month of positive growth after 15 consecutive months of decline. The increase was driven by Brazil, where exports rose from 1.82 million to 2.01 million bags.

Colombian Milds exports increased 1.2% to 1.09 million bags. This was the group’s first positive growth in the current coffee year. Kenya was the main driver, with exports rising 39.2% to 0.11 million bags.

Other Milds exports fell 1.3% to 2.66 million bags. Nicaragua and Mexico were the main drivers of the decline, with combined exports falling 42.9% to 0.34 million bags.

Robusta exports fell 2.1% to 3.97 million bags. This was only the second instance of negative growth in the first nine months of the coffee year. Indonesia and Uganda drove the decline, with combined exports falling 36.1% to 0.98 million bags.

Total Arabica exports rose 2.5% to 6.51 million bags. However, the Arabicas’ share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 60.4% from 63.7% a year earlier.

Table 2: Green Bean Exports by Group (million 60‑kg bags)

Coffee Group June 2025 June 2026 Change
Robustas 4.05 3.97 -2.1%
Colombian Milds 1.08 1.09 +1.2%
Other Milds 2.70 2.66 -1.3%
Brazilian Naturals 2.57 2.76 +7.1%

Exports by Region: South America Leads

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 0.3% to 11.88 million bags in June 2026. Exports declined in three of the four regions. South America recorded the only increase.

South America’s exports rose 17.3% to 4.8 million bags. Brazil led the increase, with exports up 17.4% to 3.09 million bags. Peru also contributed, with exports rising 50% to 0.49 million bags.

Asia & Oceania exports fell 2.4% to 3.63 million bags. Indonesia led the decline, with exports falling 33.3% to 0.58 million bags. However, India and Vietnam partly offset this with increases of 14.6% and 6.1% respectively.

Africa’s exports fell 13.5% to 1.79 million bags. Uganda was the main driver, with exports falling 30.6% to an estimated 0.7 million bags.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America fell 15.3% to 1.66 million bags. Mexico and Nicaragua drove the decline, with combined exports falling 44% to 0.41 million bags.

Soluble coffee exports fell 1.3% to 1.35 million bags. Roasted bean exports fell 32.3% to 0.05 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in July 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, a 15.4% increase from June 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

What caused the record daily price gains in July?

On July 6 and 9, the I-CIP rose 8.2% and 9.3% respectively, marking the largest daily increases in 21 years. This was driven by El Niño fears, falling stocks, wet weather in Brazil, and ICE margin hikes affecting liquidity.

How did ICE margin requirements affect the market?

ICE raised margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures from $5,685 to over $21,000 in early July. This reduced liquidity, forced position closures, and amplified price volatility.

What happened to certified coffee stocks in July?

US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024. London Robusta stocks rose slightly to 0.69 million bags. The divergence tightened Arabica supplies.

What is the El Niño outlook?

There is a 97% probability of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event during October-December 2026, potentially one of the most intense on record.

How is Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest progressing?

As of July 15, the harvest was only 64% complete, compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%, due to wet conditions that slowed harvesting and drying.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, July 2026 | Date: August 2026

Coffee Prices Soar as Brazil Harvest Slows and Inventories Tighten

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 24, 2026

Coffee Prices Soar as Brazil Harvest Slows and Inventories Tighten

  • Arabica surged 4.62% to a 6.75-month high.
  • Robusta rose 2.64% as supply remains tight.
  • Brazil’s harvest is 90% complete, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average.
  • ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags.
  • ICE robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots.
  • Colombia’s earthquake still affects supplies despite partial export resumption.
  • El Niño concerns support prices with potential rainfall delays in Brazil.

Coffee prices surged sharply today. Arabica jumped 4.62% to a 6.75-month high. Robusta rose 2.64% as supply remains tight. The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is underpinning prices.

Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported 81.1% of the harvest was complete as of August 14. This is up 7 points from the prior week but still down from 86.1% a year earlier. Safras & Mercado reported on August 14 that Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest was 90% complete as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average. Arabica harvest was 86% complete, behind last year’s 95%.

Inventory Trends: Arabica at 2.75-Year Low

Falling inventories are bullish for arabica prices. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags last Friday. By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta. ICE robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots today.

ICE Coffee Inventory Levels
Category Latest Level Status
Arabica inventories 227,992 bags 2.75-year low
Robusta inventories 4,831 lots 8.75-month high

Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress
Indicator Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of Aug 14) 81.1%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace 86.1%
Brazil overall (as of Aug 12) 90%
Previous year (Aug 12) 97%
Five-year average (Aug 12) 94%
Arabica harvest (as of Aug 12) 86%
Arabica harvest previous year 95%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended Aug 16) 0.6 mm (11% of average)

Colombia Earthquake Still Affecting Supplies

Prices also have support from the devastating earthquake earlier this month in Colombia. Colombia is the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans. Among the areas hit by the 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia’s production.

Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through Buenaventura port, which handles most of its coffee exports. However, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited. According to a Bloomberg report, the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, setting the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Below-Normal Rainfall May Speed Up Harvest

Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should allow the harvest pace to speed up, a bearish factor for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported last Monday that 0.6 mm of rain, or 11% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 16 in Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-growing region.

Vietnam Exports Continue to Surge

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On August 2, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to July rose 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

USDA Forecast: Record Production

The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year, although robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise today?Arabica surged 4.62% to a 6.75-month high, and robusta rose 2.64%.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s harvest is 90% complete as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags, while robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots.

How did Colombia’s earthquake affect coffee supplies?The quake hit Caldas and Risaralda (25% of production). Exports have partially resumed through Buenaventura but remain limited.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year.

Author: Qahwa World (based on Barchart article by Rich Asplund)
Source: Barchart / Cooxupe / Safras & Mercado / Bloomberg
Publication Date: August 24, 2026

Tanzania 2026 Harvest Update: Arabica and Robusta Progress

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Sucafina / Cotacof (Sucafina Tanzania)
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 5, 2026

Tanzania 2026 Harvest Update: Arabica and Robusta Progress

  • Tanzania’s 2026 coffee crop is expected to be 4-5% larger than last season.
  • New plantations entering production and improved farm management drive the growth.
  • Arabica harvest is approximately 40% complete, with peak picking over the next 2-3 weeks.
  • Robusta harvest is 80-90% complete, with 25-30% commercialized so far.
  • Processing infrastructure faces pressure from higher volumes, with washing stations at full capacity.
  • Sucafina works with 15 AMCOS cooperatives through its Loyalty Program in Tanzania.
  • Community projects include hospital upgrades and school improvements.

Tanzania’s 2026 coffee harvest is in full swing. Arabica and Robusta crops are progressing in line with expectations. Stronger volumes are testing processing infrastructure. However, quality remains stable.

New plantations are maturing and entering production. Established farms are also improving yields. These factors contribute to a larger crop volume this season.

Arabica Outlook

Tanzania’s Arabica harvest is currently around 40% complete. Most farms are approaching peak picking over the next two to three weeks. Volumes are tracking slightly above last season.

Overall production is expected to increase by 4-5%. This aligns with our forecast. New plantations are reaching their first and second harvests. Older farms have improved yields over the past three years. The market rally incentivized better farm management.

Early quality assessments suggest a profile consistent with expectations. “What we’ve analyzed so far looks similar to last season’s. There are no red flags, and we expect the crop to deliver decent quality overall,” says Kihara Victor, Trading Manager at Cotacof (Sucafina in Tanzania).

Tanzania 2026 Harvest Progress
Crop Progress Notes
Arabica ~40% complete Peak picking in next 2-3 weeks
Robusta 80-90% complete 25-30% commercialized
Overall Volume +4-5% vs last season Driven by new plantations and improved yields

Robusta Outlook

The Robusta harvest is more advanced. It is currently 80-90% complete. However, only 25-30% has been commercialized so far. The main focus now is on drying the coffee to be ready for auctions.

Quality is expected to remain consistent with last year. This depends on maintaining processing timelines. Drying capacity must also keep pace with incoming cherry.

Processing Capacity: Challenges and Opportunities

Higher volumes are creating pressure across the supply chain. Producers face labor shortages during peak harvest. Processors are running washing stations around the clock. They are also building more drying tables.

“The standout of this year’s harvest is the scale,” Kihara says. “Cooperatives are running washing stations at full capacity – and some are over capacity. This is something we haven’t seen to this extent in Tanzania before, even with steady volume growth in recent years. It reflects the combined impact of new plantations coming online, alongside improving yields on older farms.”

Support from the Tanzania Coffee Board and exporters is enabling cooperatives to expand their drying capacity. This helps manage throughput and maintain quality. “It’s a real signal that infrastructure investment will need to keep pace with production growth in coming seasons,” Kihara notes.

Processing and Quality Indicators
Indicator Status
Washing stations Running at full capacity, some over capacity
Drying capacity Expanding with support from Coffee Board
Arabica quality Consistent with last season
Robusta quality Expected consistent with last year
Labor availability Shortages during peak harvest

Strengthening Resilience in Coffee Communities

Sucafina continues to invest in projects that help farmers, cooperatives, and communities build resilience. The company now works with 15 AMCOS through its Loyalty Program. This program incentivizes improvements in yield, quality, and farming practices.

Sucafina launched a new pilot project with a partner. The project supports four AMCOS with prefinancing for inputs and working capital during the season. “The aim is to help cooperatives strengthen their operations, improve access to finance, and ensure they can continue to purchase coffee from farmers and run washing stations to the highest standards,” Kihara explains. “The funds are already being distributed, and we plan to expand this project.”

In 2026, Sucafina partnered with five AMCOS in the Loyalty Program to fund key community projects. These initiatives include upgrades to hospital beds and improvements to local schools, including building bathrooms. These projects help enhance community wellbeing.

To ensure continued access to responsibly sourced coffees, Sucafina expects to complete IMPACT re-verification this year. This includes Rainforest Alliance and C.A.F.E. Practices verification.

Outlook and Next Steps

Tanzania’s 2026 harvest reflects a sector in transition. Rising production is placing demands on supply chain infrastructure. Early indications suggest these challenges are being managed effectively. Quality is expected to remain stable.

If you are planning to book coffees from Tanzania or support sustainability initiatives, now is a good time to reach out to your trader. Discuss availability and booking options.

Frequently Asked Questions

How large is Tanzania’s 2026 coffee crop expected to be?The 2026 crop is expected to be 4-5% larger than last season, driven by new plantations and improved farm management.

What is the progress of the Arabica harvest?The Arabica harvest is approximately 40% complete, with peak picking expected over the next two to three weeks.

What is the progress of the Robusta harvest?The Robusta harvest is 80-90% complete, with 25-30% commercialized so far.

How is quality expected to compare to last season?Both Arabica and Robusta quality are expected to remain consistent with last season, provided processing timelines are maintained.

What is Sucafina’s involvement in Tanzania?Sucafina works with 15 AMCOS cooperatives through its Loyalty Program, supporting yield improvements, quality, community projects, and sustainability verification.

What community projects are being supported?Projects include upgrades to hospital beds and improvements to local schools, including building bathrooms, to enhance community wellbeing.

Author: Qahwa World (based on Sucafina Tanzania update)
Source: Sucafina / Cotacof Tanzania
Publication Date: August 5, 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report June 2026: Prices Rebound on El Niño Fears

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, June 2026
Date: July 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report June 2026: Prices Rebound on El Niño Fears

Executive Summary

  • The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I‑CIP) averaged 248.90 US cents/lb in June 2026, down 2.8% from May. However, prices rebounded sharply by 17.4% from a two-year low on June 9 to a two-month high at month-end.
  • Super El Niño fears (67% confidence) and excessive rainfall in Brazil (1,956% above average in Minas Gerais) slowed the harvest and raised quality concerns, reversing the downward trend.
  • Robusta prices rose 1.7% to 169.39 US cents/lb, while Brazilian Naturals fell 7.4% to 272.01 US cents/lb.
  • US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags, the lowest since February 2024. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags.
  • Global green bean exports fell 4.1% to 10.8 million bags in May 2026, driven by a 17.2% drop in Brazilian Naturals. Robusta exports rose 4.8%.
  • The Strait of Hormuz closure added 10-14 days to shipping routes, raising fuel costs 68% and fertilizer prices 25%.
  • The USDA forecast a record Brazilian 2026/27 crop at 71.9 million bags (+14%), while Rabobank raised its global Arabica surplus estimate by 35.7%.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 248.90 US cents per pound in June 2026. This was a 2.8% decrease from May 2026.

Prices continued their downward trend in early June. They fell to 231.96 US cents/lb on June 9, the lowest level in nearly two years. However, prices then rebounded sharply by 17.4%.

They reached a two-month high of 272.39 US cents/lb at the end of the month. Weather emerged as the principal driver of coffee price dynamics in June.

The Colombian Milds and Robustas recorded modest gains. The Colombian Milds rose 0.4% to 324.60 US cents/lb. Robustas increased 1.7% to 169.39 US cents/lb.

In contrast, the Other Milds declined 2.4% to 307.83 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals fell 7.4% to 272.01 US cents/lb. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags.

US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags. This was the lowest level since February 2024. The market became increasingly nervous as inventories tightened.

Super El Niño Fears Drive Rebound

Market sentiment shifted abruptly in June. Growing confidence that El Niño would develop into a Super El Niño halted the downward price movement on June 9.

The Japan Meteorological Agency and NOAA released reports on June 10 and 11. They indicated 67% confidence in a Super El Niño event, the highest confidence level on record.

These forecasts raised concerns about the potential impact on the 2026/27 coffee harvest. The effects vary across regions and seasons.

Reduced rainfall is expected in the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico. Raised temperatures and reduced rainfall are forecast for northern Brazil and parts of South America.

Increased rainfall is expected in southern Brazil and Bolivia. More erratic rainfall and flooding are forecast for East Africa. Drought conditions are expected in Southeast Asia.

On June 17 and 24, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was progressing slowly. The harvest reached 39% and 44% completion, respectively.

The delay was concentrated in Arabica areas. Excess rainfall disrupted harvesting and drying operations, particularly in Minas Gerais. The 44% completion figure on June 24 was below the 51% recorded a year earlier and the five-year average of 47%.

On June 29, Somar Meteorologia measured 31.3 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais. This was equivalent to 1,956% of the historical average for the period. The unusually high precipitation occurred during the normally dry season. It delayed harvesting and drying operations and raised concerns over bean quality.

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Add Supply Pressure

The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed from February 28. This forced Asia-Europe shipping routes to divert via the Cape of Good Hope. Transit times increased by 10 to 14 days.

Bunker fuel prices were up 68% from mid-to-late February. Container spot rates roughly doubled. Fertilizer prices increased 25%.

A gradual reopening occurred on June 22-23 following the U.S.-Iran agreement on June 17. This pushed Robusta prices to a one-week low. However, attacks on the Ever Lovely on June 25 and the Kiku on June 27 renewed geopolitical tensions within days. The associated premiums returned quickly.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 1.09 million bags on June 30. This was the lowest level since February 2024. The decline signaled tighter availability of deliverable stocks. The market was left with limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions.

Supply Fundamentals and Bearish Factors

On June 1, the USDA forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at a record level. The forecast was 14% above the previous season. Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global Arabica surplus estimate by 35.7%.

These forecasts reinforced previous positive reports. CONAB’s official second survey projected Brazil’s total crop at 66.7 million bags. Safras & Mercado projected a total crop increase of 13.4%.

In late May, the USDA revised its estimate of Vietnam’s 2025/26 output upwards to 31.7 million bags. It forecast production at 32.5 million bags for 2026/27. The dollar index stood at 101.6 during the week of June 22. This was close to a 15-month high, creating a headwind for coffee prices.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets contracted by 13.3% to 100.86 US cents/lb in June 2026. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.6%.

Exports: Arabica Declines, Robusta Gains

Global green bean exports totalled 10.8 million bags in May 2026. This was a 4.1% decline compared to 11.26 million bags in May 2025. All coffee groups recorded declines except Robustas.

Robusta exports were up 4.8% to 4.34 million bags. This was driven mainly by Brazil, where exports surged by 195.6% to 0.61 million bags. The sharp rise reflects differences in harvest timing between the current and previous Robusta harvests.

Colombian Milds exports fell by 1.7% to 0.98 million bags. This marked the seventh consecutive month of negative growth. Other Milds shipments fell by 2.8% to 2.75 million bags. This was the first negative growth observed in coffee year 2025/26.

Brazilian Naturals exports fell by 17.2% to 2.73 million bags. This marked the 15th consecutive month of negative growth. The declines were primarily driven by Brazil and Ethiopia.

Total Arabica exports decreased to 6.46 million bags in May 2026. This was a 9.3% drop from 7.12 million bags in May 2025. As a result, Arabica’s share of total green bean exports fell to 60.2% from 64.0% a year earlier.

Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60‑kg bags)

Coffee Group May 2025 May 2026 Change
Robustas 4.14 4.34 +4.8%
Colombian Milds 0.99 0.98 -1.7%
Other Milds 2.82 2.75 -2.8%
Brazilian Naturals 3.30 2.73 -17.2%

Exports by Region: Mixed Performance

Global exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 3.2% to 12.38 million bags in May 2026. The dynamics across the four regions were mixed.

Exports from Asia & Oceania were up 0.4% to 4.32 million bags. India led the growth with exports increasing 33.7% to 0.74 million bags. However, this was largely offset by decreases in Indonesia and Vietnam.

Africa’s exports decreased by 24.1% to 1.63 million bags. The contraction was driven largely by Ethiopia and Uganda. Their combined exports fell to an estimated 1.31 million bags from 1.77 million bags in May 2025.

South America’s exports increased by 4.3% to 4.29 million bags. This was the first monthly increase in 18 months. The upturn was driven mainly by Brazil, whose exports were up 4.3%.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America decreased by 3.8% to 2.14 million bags. This was the first negative growth in coffee year 2025/26, driven mainly by Nicaragua.

Soluble coffee exports increased by 3.6% to 1.51 million bags. Vietnam, Brazil, and India were the largest exporters. Roasted bean exports were up 10.8% to 0.07 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in June 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 248.90 US cents/lb in June 2026, a 2.8% decrease from May. However, prices rebounded sharply from a two-year low on June 9 to a two-month high by month-end.

What caused the price rebound in June?

Super El Niño fears (67% confidence) and excessive rainfall in Brazil (1,956% above average in Minas Gerais) slowed the harvest and raised quality concerns, reversing the downward trend.

How did coffee stocks perform in June?

US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags, the lowest since February 2024. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags. Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 1.09 million bags.

How did the Strait of Hormuz closure affect coffee prices?

The closure added 10-14 days to shipping routes, raising bunker fuel costs 68%, container spot rates by about 100%, and fertilizer prices 25%.

What were the export trends in May 2026?

Global green bean exports fell 4.1% to 10.8 million bags. Robusta exports rose 4.8%, while Brazilian Naturals fell 17.2%. Total Arabica exports were down 9.3%.

What was Brazil’s harvest outlook in June?

The USDA forecast a record 2026/27 Brazilian crop at 71.9 million bags (+14%). However, excessive rainfall in June slowed harvesting, with only 44% completed by June 24, below the five-year average of 47%.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, June 2026 | Date: July 2026

Margin Hikes Drive Coffee Prices Lower

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Commodity Bulletin / ICE / USDA / ICO
Author: Editorial Team
Date: July 10, 2026

Margin Hikes Drive Coffee Prices Lower

  • September arabica fell 13.65 cents (-3.92%), while robusta dropped 191 points (-4.72%) on Friday.
  • ICE raised margin requirements twice in one week, reducing liquidity and forcing fund liquidation.
  • Funds increased net-long robusta positions to 44,195 contracts, the highest in over two years.
  • Brazil’s harvest is only 52% complete, behind last year’s 60% and the 55% five-year average.
  • El Niño concerns grow as forecasts warn of delayed rainfall during Brazil’s flowering period.
  • USDA projects a record 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop for 2026/27, up 14% from last year.
  • Global 2025/26 production is forecast at a record 178.848 million bags.

Coffee prices ended the week sharply lower. September arabica fell 13.65 cents to close at 3.92% lower. September robusta dropped 191 points, a decline of 4.72%. The selloff extended the extreme volatility seen over recent sessions.

The decline followed two margin requirement increases by the Intercontinental Exchange. Higher margins reduced market liquidity. This forced many commodity funds to liquidate positions. The result amplified one-sided price movements.

Speculative Positioning Adds Pressure

Fund positioning has added to the downward pressure. According to Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, funds increased their net-long robusta position. They added 5,607 contracts in the week ending July 7. Their total reached 44,195 contracts. This is the highest level in more than two years.

Such concentrated long positions can accelerate price declines. This happens when investors begin unwinding their holdings. The current market structure remains vulnerable to further selloffs.

Brazil Harvest Behind Schedule

Earlier this week, coffee prices had surged on supply concerns. Arabica reached a 5½-month high on Monday. Robusta climbed to a five-month high on Tuesday. These gains were supported by delays in Brazil’s harvest.

According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 52% complete as of July 1. This compares with 60% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 55%. The slower pace reflects persistent rainfall disruptions.

Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress (as of July 1, 2026)
Period Harvest Progress
Current year (2026) 52%
Previous year (2025) 60%
Five-year average 55%

Weather and El Niño Concerns

Weather concerns continue to underpin the market. Forecasts from Rural Clima indicate rainfall across much of Brazil during mid-July. This could negatively affect coffee crops. Heavy rains over the past month have already disrupted harvesting activities. They may have also reduced crop quality.

Growing concerns over El Niño continue to influence market sentiment. Commercial warned that the phenomenon could delay rainfall in Brazil. The critical flowering period in September and October is at risk. This could potentially affect the 2026/27 crop.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center also issued a warning this week. The developing El Niño event could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This increases the risk of floods, droughts, and temperature extremes across Asia and South America.

Meanwhile, Somar Meteorologia reported that no rainfall was recorded in Minas Gerais. This is Brazil’s largest coffee-growing state. The dry spell occurred during the week ending July 5.

Inventory and Supply Data

ICE-certified coffee inventories remain an important market support. Arabica stocks fell to 344,269 bags on Friday. This is their lowest level in more than 2¼ years. Robusta inventories, however, have recovered from a two-year low. They rose from 3,631 lots on May 15 to 4,200 lots. This is the highest level in about 3½ months.

Bearish Supply Outlook

Despite recent weather-related support, the broader supply outlook remains bearish. On June 3, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projected a record Brazilian coffee crop. The forecast stands at 71.9 million bags for 2026/27. This represents a 14% increase from the previous year.

Rabobank also raised its forecast for the global arabica surplus. The new estimate is 9.5 million bags. This is up from 7.0 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May. The total reached 2.73 million bags.

Vietnam is also adding to supply expectations. The country’s National Statistics Office reported strong export figures. Coffee exports during January–June 2026 increased 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is expected to increase 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

Global Coffee Supply Forecasts
Indicator Value
Global 2025/26 production (USDA) 178.848 million bags (record)
Brazil 2026/27 crop (USDA FAS) 71.9 million bags (record)
Global arabica surplus (Rabobank) 9.5 million bags
Vietnam 2025 coffee exports 1.58 million metric tons (+17.5%)
Vietnam 2025/26 production 1.76 million metric tons (4-year high)
Global ending stocks (USDA) 20.148 million bags (-5.4%)

The International Coffee Organization previously reported global coffee exports for the current marketing year. Exports declined 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.

According to the USDA’s biannual report, global coffee production for 2025/26 is forecast to reach a record 178.848 million bags. This represents a 2% increase from the previous year. Arabica production is expected to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags. Robusta production is projected to rise 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

The USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2025/26 production at 63 million bags. This is down 3.1% from the previous year. Vietnam’s output is expected to increase 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are forecast to fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags a year earlier.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did coffee prices fall sharply on Friday?September arabica fell 3.92% and robusta dropped 4.72% after ICE raised margin requirements twice in one week, reducing liquidity and forcing fund liquidation.

What is the current fund positioning in coffee?Funds increased their net-long robusta position to 44,195 contracts, the highest level in more than two years, making the market vulnerable to rapid selloffs.

How is Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest progressing?The harvest is 52% complete as of July 1, behind last year’s 60% and the five-year average of 55%, due to persistent rainfall delays.

What is the El Niño risk for coffee production?El Niño could delay rainfall in Brazil during the September-October flowering period, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop, with forecasts suggesting one of the strongest events in 75 years.

What does the supply outlook show?USDA projects a record 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop for 2026/27, while Vietnam’s exports rose 7.3% in early 2026, signaling ample global supply.

What is the global production forecast?USDA forecasts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, with robusta up 10.9% and arabica down 4.7%.

Author: Editorial Team (based on Commodity Bulletin)
Source: ICE, USDA, ICO, Safras & Mercado, Cecafé
Publication Date: July 10, 2026

$1.5M Initiative Modernizes Coffee Breeding

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: World Coffee Research / FFAR
Author: Qahwa World
Date: June 5, 2026

$1.5M Initiative Modernizes Coffee Breeding

  • World Coffee Research launched a $1.5 million project to modernize coffee breeding tools.
  • New molecular breeding tools can shorten variety development timelines by half or more.
  • The research targets major threats: coffee leaf rust, coffee berry disease, fruit rot, and berry borer.
  • A public-private partnership includes FFAR funding and industry co-investment from Taylors of Harrogate and Coffee Circle.
  • Global partners include Cenicafé, KALRO, and USDA-ARS.
  • Three workstreams cover arabica markers, robusta genotyping, and breeder training.
  • Record-high 2025 prices reflect urgent need for more resilient coffee varieties.

World Coffee Research announced a $1.5 million project to modernize coffee breeding. The initiative develops high-precision tools to make breeding faster, better, and cheaper. These tools will accelerate the creation of high-performing varieties for the next era of coffee.

Using molecular breeding approaches, breeding timelines can be shortened by half or more. The project is supported by a grant from the Foundation for Food & Agriculture Research. Industry partners Taylors of Harrogate and Coffee Circle are matching the investment.

Closing Coffee’s Innovation Gap

Other major crops have benefited from modern genomic revolutions. Coffee breeding has remained largely stuck in traditional methods. Record-high prices in 2025 reflect a profound underinvestment in coffee R&D. The industry faces a USD$126–405 million per year gap.

This underinvestment has left farmers vulnerable to evolving environmental stressors. More productive and resilient varieties are urgently needed. This project aims to address that gap directly.

Three Workstreams Drive the Research

The project includes three technical workstreams. Each targets a critical area of coffee breeding innovation.

Project Technical Workstreams
Workstream Focus Expected Impact
Arabica Marker Mapping Coffee leaf rust, berry disease, fruit rot, berry borer Faster disease resistance selection
Robusta Genotyping Tool 3,500 genetic markers for Coffea canephora Modern genetic roadmap for robusta
Breeder Training Genomic approaches for national breeders Global technology transfer

The first workstream focuses on arabica genetic markers. It targets devastating pests and diseases. These include coffee leaf rust, coffee berry disease, coffee fruit rot, and coffee berry borer. Together, these cause hundreds of millions in annual production losses.

The second workstream creates a foundational genotyping tool for robusta. Robusta now accounts for over 40% of global production. The tool utilizes 3,500 genetic markers. A similar tool for arabica was developed in 2025. It is already being used in the Innovea Global Coffee Breeding Network.

The third workstream trains national breeders from multiple origin countries. This ensures advanced tools integrate into local programs. The goal is delivering improved trees to farmers’ fields faster.

Global Scientific Partnership

The initiative leverages a global network of technical experts. In East Africa, WCR works with KALRO to advance tools for coffee berry disease resistance. The USDA-ARS at TARS in Puerto Rico conducts screening for coffee leaf rust and fungal pathogens. In Colombia, Cenicafé collaborates on berry borer marker development.

“Cenicafe is pleased to be part of this collaborative research program and to host plant breeders from around the world. The future of global coffee production and climate adaptation will depend on scientific excellence and the development of productive, resilient, high-quality varieties. Collaborative science ensures the best cup remains on the tables of millions.”

— Santiago Jaramillo, Scientific Director, Cenicafé

Industry Support for the Initiative

Keith Writer, Supply Director at Taylors of Harrogate, emphasized the importance of this work. “Taylors depends on the success of many origins around the world to source the high-quality coffee our customers love. Their success depends on coffee farmers having access to new, climate-resilient varieties as quickly as possible. Bringing coffee breeding into the future is essential for farmers and essential for our entire industry.”

Leadership Perspectives

Dr. Jennifer “Vern” Long, CEO of World Coffee Research, highlighted the project’s foundational nature. “Better coffee starts with better trees. This project is about building foundational technology that will benefit our entire sector. We are providing the industry with the insurance it needs to thrive.”

Dr. Kathy Munkvold, Scientific Program Director at FFAR, noted the broader impact. “This research will equip breeders with the tools they need to accelerate the development of improved coffee varieties, helping farmers reduce losses and strengthen productivity.”

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the goal of this $1.5 million project?The project aims to modernize coffee breeding through molecular tools, making breeding faster, better, and cheaper for the entire sector.

How much time can the new tools save?Molecular breeding approaches can shorten variety development timelines from 25-30 years by half or more.

What diseases are being targeted?The research targets coffee leaf rust, coffee berry disease, coffee fruit rot, and coffee berry borer.

Who are the project partners?Partners include FFAR, Taylors of Harrogate, Coffee Circle, Cenicafé, KALRO, and USDA-ARS.

What is the Innovea Global Coffee Breeding Network?It is a WCR network that uses shared science to advance coffee breeding goals globally. The arabica genotyping tool is already in use there.

Is this project using genetic modification?No, molecular breeding uses the plant’s natural genetic diversity without involving genetic modification.

Author: Qahwa World
Source: World Coffee Research / FFAR press release
Publication Date: June 5, 2026

Coffee Prices Surge 16% on Brazil Harvest Delays and Weather Risks

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: July 6, 2026

Coffee Prices Surge 16% on Brazil Harvest Delays and Weather Risks

Key Takeaways:

  • Arabica prices jumped 16.19% to a 5.5-month high; robusta rose 8.83% to a 5-month high.
  • Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was only 52% complete as of July 1, behind last year’s 60% and the 55% five-year average.
  • Rain is forecast for mid-July in Brazil, which could be detrimental to coffee crops.
  • ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-month low of 366,756 bags.
  • El Niño concerns are supporting prices, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”
  • USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y), which remains a bearish factor.
  • Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.3% in the first half of 2026, pressuring robusta prices.

Coffee prices catapulted higher on Monday, with arabica posting a 5.5-month high and robusta reaching a 5-month high amid a delayed coffee harvest in Brazil. September arabica futures closed up 16.19%, while September robusta futures gained 8.83%.

According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 52% complete as of July 1, behind last year’s comparable level of 60% and the five-year average of 55%.

Harvest Delay and Rain Forecast Drive Prices Higher

Gains in coffee accelerated on Monday after meteorologist Rural Clima said rain is forecast for a large part of Brazil in the middle of July, which could be “detrimental” to crops, including coffee. Also, Monday’s rally in the Brazilian real to a two-week high against the dollar discourages coffee sales from Brazil’s producers and is supportive for prices.

Coffee prices have moved sharply higher over the past month as heavy rains in Brazil disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered coffee crop quality. Brazilian coffee farmers are also holding back on sales, hoping prices will rise and bracing for the potential impact of this year’s El Niño weather event.

Exchange Inventories at 27-Month Lows

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months, supporting coffee prices. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-month low of 366,756 bags on Monday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 but have since risen to a three-month high of 4,109 lots last Friday.

Indicator Value Significance
September Arabica Futures +16.19% 5.5-month high
September Robusta Futures +8.83% 5-month high
ICE Arabica Stocks 366,756 bags 27-month low
Brazil Harvest Completion 52% Below last year’s 60%
ICE Robusta Stocks 4,109 lots 3-month high

El Niño Concerns Support Prices and Threaten Next Year’s Crop

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year that could be the strongest on record. On June 10, the Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño pattern had formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Bearish Factors: Record Crop Forecasts and Vietnam Exports

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously.

In Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, coffee exports in the first half of 2026 rose 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.

Indicator 2025/26 Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production 178.85 million bags +2.0%
Arabica Production 95.52 million bags -4.7%
Robusta Production 83.33 million bags +10.9%
Ending Stocks 20.15 million bags -5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About the Coffee Price Surge

Q: Why did coffee prices surge 16%?

A: Due to Brazil’s delayed harvest (52% complete vs. 60% last year), rain forecasts for mid-July that could damage crops, and inventories falling to 27-month lows.

Q: How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 366,756 bags (a 27-month low), while robusta stocks rose to 4,109 lots (a 3-month high).

Q: Will prices continue to rise?

A: It depends on weather developments in Brazil, the severity of any crop damage, El Niño developments, and inventory trends.

The coffee market faces heightened uncertainty. While large surplus expectations remain in the background, delayed harvests, weather risks, falling inventories, and El Niño concerns are reshaping the balance. Investors are closely watching weather developments in Brazil and inventory trends to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: July 6, 2026

Coffee Is Under Threat: How Scientists Are Fighting to Save It from Extinction

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Nature – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: July 1, 2026

Coffee Is Under Threat: How Scientists Are Fighting to Save It from Extinction

Key Takeaways:

  • Coffee is critically threatened by climate change, with arabica suffering or dying when temperatures rise just a few degrees.
  • Robusta requires massive amounts of water and its yields drop drastically in drought conditions.
  • Ethiopia, the homeland of arabica coffee, is preserving genetic diversity through conservation areas and living collections of over 12,000 plants.
  • Scientists are exploring wild coffee species such as C. liberica, C. excelsa, and C. stenophylla that are more climate-resilient.
  • C. stenophylla, a forgotten species from the 18th century, tastes remarkably similar to specialty arabica from Rwanda.
  • Chemical tricks like grinding frozen beans can improve extraction and reduce waste, allowing better flavor from less coffee.

“A mathematician is a machine for turning coffee into theorems”, a quote often attributed to the late Hungarian mathematician Paul Erdős. Coffee is one of the world’s favorite drinks and an essential stimulant for many researchers. But its future is uncertain. “Coffee is critically threatened by climate change,” says Kassahun Tesfaye, a plant geneticist at Addis Ababa University.

Nearly all the 10 million tonnes of coffee beans consumed annually around the world come from two plant species: the strong and often bitter robusta (Coffea canephora) and the more delicate-tasting arabica (Coffea arabica). Unfortunately, arabica suffers or dies when temperatures rise just a few degrees, and robusta requires massive amounts of water and its yields drop drastically in a drought. Researchers are racing to keep the world’s coffee drinkers awake – and preserve the livelihoods of the many lower-income-country farmers who grow the cash crop.

The Birthplace of Arabica and Genetic Diversity in Ethiopia

Ethiopians are proud of their country for being the homeland of arabica coffee. The Ethiopian government has been establishing conservation areas to preserve the natural genetic diversity of the species. It also grows more than 12,000 arabica plants in living collections at the Ethiopian Biodiversity Institute in Addis Ababa and at the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research in Jimma. The government is betting that these plants will provide the material for breeding – or genetically engineering – arabica cultivars with traits designed to withstand high temperatures and drought.

Wild Coffee Species: Liberica, Excelsa, and Stenophylla

As temperatures increase, arabica cultivation might need to move to increasingly higher terrain to stay cool, which will not be easy for owners of small coffee plantations. Another solution is to grow other species of coffee plant that can better withstand climate change. There are 134 known wild coffee species, and a few are being grown for their climate resilience, including C. liberica and C. excelsa.

Aaron Davis, a researcher at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, says “the success stories are always about changing the species” that farmers grow. In wet regions, that could mean switching from arabica to robusta, but in other places it could instead mean growing C. liberica, which tolerates higher temperatures than arabica does and does not require as much water.

Davis has also tried a “bonkers” coffee species, Coffea stenophylla, which was described by a Swedish botanist in West Africa in the 18th century and then largely forgotten by science. “It still freaks me out, because here we have a coffee which isn’t related to arabica, occurs in an extreme environment – and yet tastes like a very specific arabica from Rwanda.” The challenge, he says, will be to breed varieties of C. stenophylla that are productive and that farmers find easy to grow.

Species Characteristics Challenges
Arabica (Coffea arabica) Delicate taste, most popular Heat-sensitive, dies with slight temperature rise
Robusta (Coffea canephora) Strong, bitter, heat-tolerant High water demand, yields drop in drought
Liberica (Coffea liberica) Heat-tolerant, tropical fruit flavors Different taste, not for everyone
Excelsa (Coffea excelsa) Climate-resilient, fruity and almondy notes Rarely cultivated, not well known
Stenophylla (Coffea stenophylla) Tastes like Rwanda arabica, tolerates harsh conditions Low productivity, cultivation challenges

Chemistry Tricks: Grinding Frozen Beans and Improving Extraction

Some researchers are looking for ways to get more out of the shrinking arabica supply. Christopher Hendon, a materials scientist at the University of Oregon, says: “There’s a lot you can do at the consuming side.” Hendon and his collaborators have found that grinding coffee beans at below freezing temperatures results in smaller particles. However, counter-intuitively, they also found that finer grinds do not necessarily yield tastier brews. Smaller particles tend to aggregate through electrostatic forces, reducing the surface area exposed to water – and thus the amount of chemicals entering solution – but tweaks to the grinding techniques, such as starting with moist beans, can help reduce the clumping.

Somewhat surprisingly, coarser grinds can also release more of the good stuff into an espresso, but this happens only when beans are put under pressures as low as 7 atmospheres. (A typical coffee-house machine works at around 10 atmospheres.)

Chemistry: The Key to Coffee’s Future

Chemistry is also crucial to investigating alternative coffee plants and how to turn them into desirable products. Hendon says the science of coffee is still young, and researchers are working to develop reproducible and objective techniques. “Compositional measurement is a big challenge,” says Hendon, “and so is assigning a numerical value to flavor.” A typical cup of coffee might contain more than 2,000 organic compounds, and their concentrations vary greatly depending on how and where the plant is grown – and how the beans are roasted.

Tesfaye emphasizes that scientists, of all people, should care about coffee’s future, not just because science is good for coffee, but because coffee is good for science, too. “Many discoveries and knowledge are generated after having a cup of coffee.”

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee’s Future Under Climate Change

Q: Why is coffee threatened with extinction?

A: Due to climate change. Arabica is highly sensitive to rising temperatures, while robusta requires large amounts of water and suffers from drought.

Q: What are the proposed solutions to save coffee?

A: Solutions include preserving arabica genetic diversity, breeding heat and drought-resistant varieties, cultivating wild species like liberica, excelsa, and stenophylla, and improving grinding and extraction techniques.

Q: What is Coffea stenophylla?

A: A wild coffee species described in the 18th century and then largely forgotten. It tastes similar to specialty arabica from Rwanda and tolerates harsh environmental conditions.

Q: How can chemistry help address the coffee crisis?

A: Through improved grinding and extraction techniques, such as grinding frozen beans, to extract better flavor from less coffee, and developing objective methods to measure flavor.

Q: What is Ethiopia’s role in preserving coffee?

A: Ethiopia is the homeland of arabica coffee. The government is establishing conservation areas and living collections of over 12,000 plants to preserve genetic diversity.

Coffee faces an existential threat from climate change, but scientists around the world are working tirelessly to save it. From preserving genetic diversity in Ethiopia, to exploring resilient wild species, to improving grinding and extraction techniques, the future of coffee depends on scientific creativity and international collaboration. As one researcher said, “Many discoveries are generated after having a cup of coffee.” Let us work together to preserve this precious beverage for generations to come.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on an article in Nature.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: July 1, 2026

Drier Weather in Brazil Aids Coffee Harvest and Weighs on Prices

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 22, 2026

Drier Weather in Brazil Aids Coffee Harvest and Weighs on Prices

Key Takeaways:

  • Arabica prices fell 0.73% and robusta fell 1.76% to a one-week low, as drier weather in Brazil is expected to allow the harvest to resume.
  • The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eases supply disruptions, lowering shipping, insurance, and fuel costs.
  • ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-month low of 394,267 bags.
  • El Niño concerns support prices, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year.
  • USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y).
  • Vietnam’s exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, with production expected at 29.4 million bags (+6%).
  • Global production in 2025/26 is projected at 178.85 million bags (+2.0%), with ending stocks falling 5.4%.

Coffee prices came under pressure today, with robusta falling sharply to a one-week low. The decline came as expectations of drier weather in Brazil raised hopes that the country’s coffee harvest can resume. September arabica futures fell 0.73%, while July robusta futures dropped 1.76%.

Prices had rallied to five-week highs last Thursday amid persistent rain in Brazil, which delayed the harvest. However, improving weather conditions are now reversing that trend, as harvesting activities are expected to accelerate in key coffee regions.

Drier Weather Resumes Harvest and Pressures Prices

Meteorological agencies forecast drier weather across Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions in the coming days, allowing farmers to resume harvesting activities that had been halted by heavy rains. This development is expected to increase supply in global markets, especially with expectations of a bumper harvest this year. The improved weather conditions have led to a decline in prices, as traders took advantage of the favorable weather to accelerate profit-taking.

Strait of Hormuz Reopening Eases Supply Disruptions

Authorities announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, easing supply disruptions that have affected the market in recent months. The reopening is expected to lower shipping rates, insurance premiums, fuel costs, and fertilizer prices, thereby reducing overall costs for importers and roasters. This development represents an additional bearish factor, as lower logistics costs remove some of the support that had been underpinning prices during the closure.

Indicator Value Significance
September Arabica Futures -0.73% Decline on improving weather
July Robusta Futures -1.76% One-week low
ICE Arabica Stocks 394,267 bags 27-month low
ICE Robusta Stocks 4,032 lots 2.25-month high
Strait of Hormuz Reopened Easing supply disruptions

Exchange Inventories at Multi-Year Lows

ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to 394,267 bags last Thursday, the lowest level in 27 months. This decline in inventories supports prices and reflects tight physical supplies. In contrast, ICE robusta inventories jumped from a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 to 4,032 lots, the highest level in 2.25 months.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices and Threaten Next Year’s Crop

Concerns over the impact of an El Niño weather pattern on Brazil’s next coffee crop continue to support prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño could delay the arrival of seasonal rains during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September and October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could be the strongest on record. The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed on June 10 that El Niño conditions have formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Large Crops Continue to Weigh on the Market

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported on June 11 that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May to 2.73 million bags.

Vietnam Expands Exports and Production, Adding Pressure

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continues to increase exports, adding further pressure on prices. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office on June 2, coffee exports during the first five months of 2026 reached 922,000 metric tons, up 7.9% from the same period a year earlier. Full-year exports in 2025 rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.

Global Production Outlook and Inventories Point to a Delicate Balance

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports during the current marketing year (October–September) totaled 138.66 million bags, slightly down 0.3% from the previous year. Meanwhile, the USDA’s FAS projects global coffee production in 2025/26 to reach a record 178.85 million bags, up 2% year-on-year. The forecast includes arabica production of 95.52 million bags (-4.7%) and robusta production of 83.33 million bags (+10.9%). The USDA estimates Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop at 63 million bags, down 3.1% from the previous year, while Vietnam’s production is expected to rise 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are forecast to decline by 5.4% to 20.15 million bags in 2025/26, compared with 21.31 million bags in 2024/25.

Indicator 2025/26 Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production 178.85 million bags +2.0%
Arabica Production 95.52 million bags -4.7%
Robusta Production 83.33 million bags +10.9%
Ending Stocks 20.15 million bags -5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why did coffee prices decline today?

A: Due to expectations of drier weather in Brazil allowing the harvest to resume, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz easing supply disruptions.

Q: How does the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz affect coffee prices?

A: It is expected to lower shipping, insurance, and fuel costs, reducing costs for importers and roasters and putting downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 394,267 bags (a 27-month low), while robusta stocks rose to 4,032 lots (a 2.25-month high).

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

The coffee market remains caught between supportive factors (El Niño concerns, falling inventories) and bearish factors (improving weather in Brazil, Strait of Hormuz reopening, record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production). Improving weather conditions and the reopening of the strait add additional downward pressure, though El Niño concerns and declining inventories still provide some support. All eyes remain on weather developments in Brazil and inventory trends to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 22, 2026