USDA Report: Record World Coffee Production in 2026/27

Posted on July 23, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) – Coffee: World Markets and Trade
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 23, 2026This article covers important findings from the world coffee market report 2026.

USDA Report: Record World Coffee Production in 2026/27

World coffee production forecast at a record 189.7 million bags in 2026/27, up 10.8 million from the previous year.
Brazil leads the surge with a record 71.9 million bags, driven by a 9.5 million bag Arabica rebound.
Global consumption rises to a record 179.7 million bags, with the European Union and United States leading gains.
World bean exports forecast at a record 131.4 million bags, up 11.9 million from 2025/26.
Ending stocks rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags.
Coffee prices have fallen 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies become available.
Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Uganda all post production increases, while Indonesia declines.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service released its latest Coffee: World Markets and Trade report. Global coffee production for 2026/27 is forecast at a record 189.7 million bags. This represents an increase of 10.8 million bags from the previous year.

Record output in Brazil, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Vietnam drives this growth. These gains more than compensate for losses in India and Indonesia. World coffee bean exports are expected to reach a record 131.4 million bags. Global consumption is forecast to rise to a record 179.7 million bags.

World Production at Record High

World coffee production for 2026/27 is forecast 10.8 million bags higher than the previous year. Production is expected to reach a record 189.7 million bags. Brazil accounts for the largest share with a record 71.9 million bags. The rebound in Arabica production is particularly notable after five years of underperformance.

**World Coffee Production 2026/27 (Million 60-kg Bags)**
Category	2025/26	2026/27 Forecast	Change
Total Production	178.8	189.7	+10.8
Arabica Production	94.4	105.9	+11.4
Robusta Production	84.4	83.8	-0.6

Brazil: Record Production and Arabica Rebound

Brazil’s combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast at a record 71.9 million bags in 2026/27. This represents an increase of 8.9 million bags from the previous year. Arabica output is expected to rebound 9.5 million bags to 47.5 million, ending a five-year period of underperformance due to adverse weather conditions.

Timely rainfall during flowering in September and October ensured favorable fruit development. Near-record yields were achieved in Minas Gerais, where over 70% of Arabica coffee is grown. Robusta production is forecast to retreat 600,000 bags to 24.4 million following last year’s record harvest. Cooler temperatures combined with elevated rainfall lowered yields in Espirito Santo, where approximately 70% of Robusta is grown.

Brazil accounts for nearly 40% of world production and exerts significant influence on global supplies and prices. Brazil’s role in Arabica markets is even more pronounced, typically supplying between 40% and 50% depending on the biennial crop production cycle.

**Brazil Coffee Production Outlook 2026/27**
Category	2025/26	2026/27 Forecast	Change
Arabica Production	38.0 million bags	47.5 million bags	+9.5 million
Robusta Production	25.0 million bags	24.4 million bags	-0.6 million
Total Production	63.0 million bags	71.9 million bags	+8.9 million
Bean Exports	34.0 million bags	45.0 million bags	+11.0 million
Ending Stocks	3.9 million bags	4.4 million bags	+0.5 million

Global Consumption and Trade

World coffee bean exports are forecast 11.9 million bags higher to a record 131.4 million bags. This is driven by higher output in major producing countries. Global consumption is expected to rise to a record 179.7 million bags. The largest gains are occurring in the European Union and the United States.

Ending stocks are expected to rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags. This follows a significant drawdown between 2020/21 and 2024/25, when global ending stocks fell 15.5 million bags. While stocks are recovering, they remain below the long-term average.

**World Coffee Summary 2026/27 (Million 60-kg Bags)**
Category	2025/26	2026/27 Forecast	Change
World Production	178.8	189.7	+10.8
World Bean Exports	119.5	131.4	+11.9
World Consumption	173.5	179.7	+6.3
Ending Stocks	24.4	26.3	+1.9

Country-by-Country Production Highlights

Vietnam production is forecast to increase 800,000 bags to a record 32.5 million. Expanding area and higher yields drive this growth. Recent high prices allowed growers to increase expenditures on fertilizers. Bean exports are forecast up 300,000 bags to 25.4 million. Domestic consumption is expected to reach a record 5.0 million bags.

Colombia output is expected to rise 900,000 bags to 13.4 million. Adequate soil moisture from last year’s excessive rains supports this growth. Increased utilization of fertilizers and pesticides also contributes. Bean exports, mostly to the United States and European Union, are forecast up 500,000 bags to 12.2 million.

Ethiopia is forecast to increase output by more than 500,000 bags to a record 12.1 million. Higher area and yield drive this growth. Over the last four years, growth has been driven by replacement of over half of the cultivated area with higher-yielding varieties. Bean exports are forecast up nearly 200,000 bags to 7.1 million.

Central America and Mexico production is forecast to rise nearly 600,000 bags to 17.7 million. Rebounding output in Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Panama contribute to this growth. Honduras is expected to account for nearly all the region’s growth, rebounding 500,000 bags to 6.0 million.

Indonesia production is forecast to drop 1.0 million bags to 11.4 million. Robusta output is expected to decrease 1.0 million bags to 10.0 million due to lower yields. Excessive rainfall disrupted flowering and cherry formation in Southern Sumatra and Java. Reduced output is expected to cut bean exports by over 800,000 bags to 7.0 million.

**Key Country Production 2026/27 (Million 60-kg Bags)**
Country	2025/26	2026/27 Forecast	Change
Brazil	63.0	71.9	+8.9
Vietnam	31.7	32.5	+0.8
Colombia	12.5	13.4	+0.9
Ethiopia	11.6	12.1	+0.5
Indonesia	12.4	11.4	-1.0
Honduras	5.5	6.0	+0.5
Uganda	7.1	7.2	+0.1

Price Impact of Rising Supplies

Coffee prices have dropped 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies became available. This is measured by the International Coffee Organization monthly composite price index. The improving supply situation reflects record production and rising ending stocks.

However, ending stocks remain below the long-term average. Weather developments in key producing regions, particularly Minas Gerais in Brazil, remain the primary indicator for world market conditions. The biennial production cycle in Brazil continues to shape global supply and price expectations.

Revisions to 2025/26 Estimates

World production is unchanged from the December 2025 estimate of 178.8 million bags. Vietnam is raised 900,000 bags to 31.7 million on higher yields. Peru is up nearly 600,000 bags to 4.8 million. Colombia is lowered 1.3 million bags to 12.5 million due to excessive rain and cloud cover. Guatemala is reduced nearly 400,000 bags to 3.2 million due to coffee cherry borer and coffee rust.

World bean exports are revised down 4.3 million bags to 119.5 million. Brazil is lowered 3.0 million bags to 34.0 million due to lower shipments to the EU and United States. Ethiopia is reduced over 800,000 bags to 6.9 million on higher-than-anticipated domestic consumption. Vietnam is up 500,000 bags to 25.1 million on higher output.

Key Takeaways for the Coffee Industry

Record global production is expected to boost supplies significantly. Brazil’s Arabica rebound after five years of underperformance is particularly notable. This could help replenish global inventories that were drawn down in previous years.

Ending stocks are forecast to rise for a second consecutive year. However, they remain below the long-term average. Weather developments in Minas Gerais remain the primary indicator for world market conditions. Coffee prices have fallen 25% in seven months, reflecting improved supply. Producers and traders should monitor Brazil’s production cycle closely, as it heavily influences global market conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the forecast for global coffee production in 2026/27?World production is forecast at a record 189.7 million bags, up 10.8 million from the previous year.

What is Brazil’s production forecast?Brazil is forecast at a record 71.9 million bags, driven by a 9.5 million bag Arabica rebound.

What is the global consumption forecast?Global consumption is expected to rise to a record 179.7 million bags, with the largest gains in the EU and US.

What are ending stocks expected to be?Ending stocks are expected to rise for a second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags.

How have coffee prices responded to increased supply?Coffee prices have dropped 25% over the last seven months as additional supplies became available.

Which countries are driving production growth?Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Uganda are all posting production increases, while Indonesia declines.

Coffee Returns to Bullish Mode After 49% Rally

Posted on July 16, 2026July 16, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Andrew Hecht
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 14, 2026

Coffee Returns to Bullish Mode After 49% Rally

ICE Arabica coffee futures surged 49.5% in one month, erasing four months of declines.
The rally followed a 37.8% drop from January to June, with prices bottoming at $2.3885 per pound.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is behind schedule due to heavy rain disrupting operations.
ICE Arabica exchange inventories reached a two-year low of 366,756 bags.
Emerging El Niño weather patterns could damage Brazil’s flowering and crop.
Brazilian farmers are withholding beans, storing them for sale at higher prices.
Key resistance is at the October 2025 record high of $4.3795 per pound.

Coffee futures are back in bullish mode. ICE Arabica coffee surged 49.5% over the past month. The rally erased four months of declines. Prices bottomed at $2.3885 per pound on June 9. On July 6, they reached $3.5700 per pound.

The volatility has been extreme. Coffee futures fell 37.8% from January to June. Then they made up all those losses in under one month. The market remains highly volatile with significant upside potential.

Why Is Coffee Back in Bullish Mode?

Several factors are driving the rally. First, Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is behind schedule. Heavy rain has disrupted harvesting operations. This has increased concerns about coffee bean quality. The prospects for lower Brazilian output have been bullish for prices.

Second, global inventories are low. ICE Arabica exchange inventories reached a two-year low of 366,756 bags. This creates the potential for supply squeezes. Third, production costs are rising due to stubborn global inflation.

**Top Coffee Producers (2025)**
Country	Share of Global Production
Brazil	37.08%
Vietnam	16.54%
Colombia	8.44%
Ethiopia	~4%
Indonesia	~4%

Brazil’s Dominance and Harvest Issues

Brazil is the world’s leading coffee producer. It accounts for 37.08% of global production. This is nearly as much as the next four countries combined. Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia produce a combined 37.41%.

Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is behind schedule. Heavy rain disrupted the harvest. This increased concerns that coffee bean quality had declined. The prospects for lower Brazilian output have been bullish for ICE Arabica coffee futures prices.

El Niño Risks and Farmer Stockpiling

The emerging El Niño weather pattern could trigger extreme temperature shifts. Irregular precipitation could damage coffee tree flowering. This could negatively impact the overall Brazilian crop. These concerns are pushing prices higher.

Brazilian farmers have begun withholding beans. They are storing them for sale when prices rise. This behavior further tightens supply. It also adds upward pressure on prices.

Technical Levels to Watch

The coffee futures market has clear technical levels. The record high stands at $4.3795 per pound from October 2025. This is the key resistance level. Technical support sits at the May 2025 low of $2.3885 per pound.

At $3.16 per pound on July 7, coffee futures were below the midpoint. However, they had traded above it on July 6. There is significant room for volatile price swings between these levels.

**Key Technical Levels for Arabica Coffee**
Level	Price (per pound)
Record High (October 2025)	$4.3795
Current Price (July 7, 2026)	$3.16
Recent Low (June 9, 2026)	$2.3885
Historical Support (May 2019)	$0.876

Futures and Options Trading

There are no ETFs that track coffee prices. Participation is limited to ICE futures and futures options. Each futures contract contains 37,500 pounds of Arabica coffee. At $3.28 per pound, the contract value is $123,000.

Traders can control this value with an original margin deposit of $23,227. This represents 18.9% of the contract value. Recent volatility caused margin requirements to rise from 7.9% of contract value. The exchange can change margin requirements based on market volatility. Wider price swings lead to higher margin requirements.

ICE offers put and call options on Arabica coffee futures. Long options involve paying a premium and are not subject to margin requirements. Short options require margin. The leverage is significant for market participants.

Risk Management Is Essential

Coffee is back in bullish mode in July 2026. This will likely increase trading activity. It could also lead to wide price swings. Any risk position in ICE Arabica coffee requires a risk-reward plan. Traders should use stops and profit horizons. This protects capital and establishes reasonable odds of success.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is coffee in bullish mode?Brazil harvest delays, low inventories, El Niño risks, and rising production costs are driving coffee futures higher.

How much did coffee futures rise in July 2026?ICE Arabica coffee futures surged 49.5% in one month, erasing four months of declines.

What is Brazil’s share of global coffee production?Brazil accounts for 37.08% of global coffee production, nearly as much as the next four countries combined.

What are the key technical levels for coffee?Resistance is at the October 2025 record high of $4.3795 per pound. Support is at the May 2025 low of $2.3885 per pound.

Are there ETFs that track coffee prices?No. The only soft commodity ETF is Teucrium Sugar ETF (CANE). Coffee participation is limited to ICE futures and options.

What is the margin requirement for coffee futures?The original margin deposit is $23,227 per contract, representing 18.9% of the contract value. Margin requirements can change based on volatility.

Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Prices

Posted on June 8, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 8, 2026

Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Prices

Key Takeaways:

July arabica futures fell 0.37% today; July robusta rose 0.60%.
Arabica hit a 19-month low last week, robusta a 7-week low.
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year on year.
Rabobank raised its global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags.
Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 5.75-month low of 419,504 bags.
El Niño risks and Strait of Hormuz closure provide price support.

Coffee prices traded mixed today as the ongoing harvest in Brazil continues to weigh on prices. July arabica futures fell 0.37%, while July robusta rose 0.60%. Weakness in the Brazilian real, which fell to a two-month low against the dollar, also pressured prices by encouraging export sales from Brazilian producers.

Last week, arabica fell to a 19-month low, and robusta slid to a seven-week low. The outlook for a record Brazil coffee crop remains the primary bearish factor, though some supportive elements exist.

Record Brazil Crop Forecast Weighs on Prices

Last Wednesday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags. That is a 14% increase year on year. Rabobank also raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags, up from 7.0 million bags previously.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest would increase by 12% to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group projected a record 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s 75.4 million bag forecast. StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags on March 12.

As a result, coffee prices have trended lower over the past six weeks amid an improved global supply outlook. StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025. That would be the largest surplus in six years.

Source	Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS	71.9
Coffee Trading Academy	71.4
Marex Group	75.9
Sucafina	75.4
StoneX	75.3

Strong Vietnam Exports Pressure Robusta; Inventories Fall

Last Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose 7.9% year on year to 922,000 metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

In contrast, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 5.75-month low of 419,504 bags last Friday. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 and are now slightly higher at 3,732 lots. The decline in inventories provides some support to prices.

El Niño Concerns and Strait Disruptions Support Prices

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial stated that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. That would damage the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year. There is a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”

Moreover, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

On the bearish side, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3% to 138.658 million bags. The USDA FAS bi-annual report on December 18 projected that 2025/26 world coffee production will increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to fall 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production rises 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

Type	2025/26 Forecast (million bags)	Year-on-Year Change
Arabica	95.52	-4.7%
Robusta	83.33	+10.9%
Global Total	178.85	+2.0%

Ending Stocks Continue to Decline

The USDA FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. This decline comes despite higher production expectations. It reflects strong global demand and persistent supply chain pressures.

However, prices may face additional pressure if large surplus forecasts materialize, especially with recovering production in Brazil and Vietnam. Investors remain watchful of weather developments in South America and geopolitical tensions in the Arabian Gulf region.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why are arabica prices falling despite lower exchange inventories?

A: Because of record Brazil crop forecasts and rising Vietnam exports, which increase global supply and weigh on prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports affect robusta prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase global robusta supply, putting downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil, harming tree flowering and reducing next year’s crop. This would support higher prices.

Q: How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect the coffee market?

A: The closure disrupts shipping routes and raises transport, insurance, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

Q: What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?

A: StoneX expects the surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years, driven by higher production in Brazil and Vietnam.

The coffee market remains torn between large surplus expectations on one hand and tight spot supplies, weather risks, and geopolitical tensions on the other. Investors continue to monitor exchange inventories and weather developments in Brazil closely.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: June 8, 2026

Brazil Coffee Output to Reach Record 71.9M Bags

Posted on June 3, 2026June 3, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report BR2026-0025
Date: June 1, 2026

Brazil Coffee Output to Reach Record 71.9M Bags

Executive Summary

Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags, a 14% increase over the previous season.
Arabica output is expected to surge 25% to 47.5 million bags, ending five years of low harvests.
Robusta (conilon) production is forecast at 24.4 million bags, a slight decline from 25 million bags due to cooler weather and excess rain in some regions.
Exports for 2026/27 are projected to jump 30% to 49 million bags, supported by the record crop.
However, low stocks and fears of an El Niño event are making exporters cautious and holding back deals.
Domestic consumption remains stable at 22.39 million bags, with a 0.5% annual increase.
The “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” management technique is helping farmers optimize yields and reduce costs.

Brazil is set to produce a record 71.9 million 60‑kg bags of coffee in the 2026/27 season. This is a 14% increase over the previous cycle. The outlook is especially bright for arabica coffee.

Optimal weather in major growing regions has driven the recovery. The record crop follows five years of low arabica production caused by adverse conditions.

Exports are expected to surge 30% to 49 million bags. However, exporters remain cautious. They are holding back on deals because of low stocks and uncertainties about a possible El Niño event.

El Niño could affect the end of the current harvest and the 2027/28 cycle. These factors are strongly influencing coffee prices in the Brazilian market.

Production Outlook

The positive biennial cycle is a key driver. Arabica trees naturally produce more in alternating years. This year is a high‑yield year.

Favorable weather conditions and rising global prices have also encouraged farmers to expand their coffee areas. Technology has enabled higher planting density per hectare.

As a result, total coffee production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags. This is a 14% increase from the 63 million bags estimated for 2025/26.

The National Supply Company (CONAB) projects a slightly lower figure of 66.7 million bags. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) projects 65.1 million bags.

Both official agencies use different methodologies. They have historically provided lower estimates than the USDA.

Arabica and Robusta Performance

Arabica production is forecast to reach 47.5 million bags. This is a 25% increase over the previous cycle. The growth is driven by the positive biennial cycle and expanded cultivated area.

Technological improvements in crop management also played a role. Milder temperatures before flowering supported good crop development.

In contrast, robusta (conilon) production is forecast at 24.4 million bags. This is a slight decline from the 25 million bags estimated for 2025/26.

Colder weather and periods of excessive rainfall reduced yields in some main producing regions. The strong growth of the 2025/26 harvest also made it difficult to sustain the same level of production.

Producers are increasingly worried about climate change. Many are adjusting their practices, seeking more shaded areas, and looking for resilient varieties.

Regional Performance

Minas Gerais remains Brazil’s largest coffee‑producing state. It is forecast to harvest 34.1 million bags in 2026/27, up from 26.7 million in 2025/26.

The increase is due to the positive biennial cycle and better rainfall distribution. Rainfall was especially good before flowering and through March.

Espírito Santo, the second‑largest producer, is forecast at 21.4 million bags. Arabica production there is expected at 4.4 million bags, while robusta accounts for 17 million bags.

São Paulo, which grows only arabica, saw growth of more than 15% over the previous cycle, despite varied weather conditions.

Bahia has now become the second‑largest robusta producer, surpassing Rondônia. Its growth comes from advanced technology and high‑performance irrigated areas.

Rondônia is expected to see a 19% increase in robusta production. Favorable weather and the renewal of crops with higher‑yielding clonal plants are the main reasons.

Table 1: Brazilian Coffee Production by State (million 60‑kg bags)

State	2025/26	2026/27	Change
Minas Gerais	26.7	34.1	+27.7%
Espírito Santo	20.9	21.4	+2.4%
São Paulo	4.8	5.5	+14.6%
Bahia	4.7	5.2	+10.6%
Rondônia	2.3	2.8	+21.7%

Prices and Production Costs

Arabica prices rose sharply at the end of 2025 due to limited supply. However, prices started to decrease with the forecast of a larger harvest.

In April 2026, arabica coffee averaged BRL 1,811.87 (USD 360.03) per 60‑kg bag. This was a 5% drop from March and a 28% drop from April 2024.

Robusta prices fell even more. In April 2026, robusta traded at BRL 917.05 (USD 182.26). That was a 10% monthly drop and a 46% drop from April 2025.

Fears of an El Niño event have dampened sales activity. Many producers who were liquidating their remaining stocks are now holding back.

Production costs remain high. Fertilizer prices have risen, and freight costs have increased due to higher diesel prices. Diesel climbed about 24% in March 2026.

To cope, many farmers are adopting the “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” technique. This method divides farms into two plots and alternates skeleton pruning.

As a result, farmers focus only on the plot in its high‑yield phase. The system also increases organic matter and reduces fertilizer needs.

Domestic Consumption and Exports

Brazil’s domestic coffee consumption is forecast at 22.39 million bags for 2026/27. This is a slight 0.5% increase over the previous year.

Consumption declined by more than 2% in 2025 due to high prices. However, it recovered in early 2026 as supermarket prices dropped.

In the first four months of 2026, consumption rose 2% compared to the same period in 2025. The average Brazilian drinks about 3.8 cups of coffee per day.

Exports for 2026/27 are forecast to jump 30% to 49 million bags. This is based on the record harvest. However, low stocks have prevented even higher volumes.

Between January and April 2026, Brazil exported 11.5 million bags, a 24% decrease from the same period in 2025. April exports increased 1.2%, signaling a gradual recovery.

Germany remains the top buyer of Brazilian coffee, followed by the United States, Italy, Japan, and Belgium. The United States holds over 30% of the market share for Brazilian coffee imports.

Specialty coffees accounted for almost 18% of total exports in early 2026, though that volume was 36% lower than the same period in 2025.

Policy and Minimum Prices

The government has allocated BRL 7.37 billion for the 2026/27 Coffee Economy Defense Fund (FUNCAFE). The fund supports crop management, marketing financing, and working capital.

Minimum guaranteed prices for the 2026/27 harvest have been increased. Arabica now has a minimum price of BRL 792.53 per 60‑kg bag, a 20% rise from the previous season.

Robusta’s minimum price was set at BRL 556.97 per bag, a 12% increase. These prices are valid from April 2026 through March 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will Brazil produce in 2026/27?

Production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags, a 14% increase over the previous season.

Why is arabica production expected to surge?

The positive biennial cycle, expanded planted area, technological advances, and favorable weather are the main drivers.

Which Brazilian state produces the most coffee?

Minas Gerais is the largest producer, forecast at 34.1 million bags in 2026/27.

How will El Niño affect Brazilian coffee?

There is a 60% chance of El Niño between May and July 2026. It could negatively impact the 2027/28 harvest through higher temperatures and altered rainfall.

What is the “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” technique?

It is a management method that divides a farm into two plots and alternates skeleton pruning, allowing farmers to focus on high‑yield areas and reduce costs.

What are the main export destinations for Brazilian coffee?

Germany, the United States, Italy, Japan, and Belgium are the top buyers.

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília | Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report BR2026-0025 | Date: June 1, 2026

Coffee Prices Rise on Weather Concerns

Posted on May 27, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World
Source: Barchart
Date: May 27, 2026

Coffee Prices Rise on Weather Concerns

Executive Summary:

July arabica coffee futures closed up 0.61 percent on Tuesday, while robusta gained 1.82 percent.
Dry and uneven rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands raised concerns about robusta cherry development.
El Niño could delay Brazil’s September-October rains, threatening the 2026/27 flowering season.
NOAA estimates 82% chance of El Niño from May to July, with 67% chance of a Super El Niño.
Vietnam coffee exports rose 15.8% in Jan-Apr 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.
ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low before recovering slightly to 3,968 lots.
Brazil’s April green coffee exports declined 1.3% to 2.76 million bags.

Coffee prices moved higher on Tuesday, reaching one week highs as weather risks in key producing countries raised concerns about future supply.

July arabica coffee futures closed up 0.61 percent, while July ICE robusta coffee futures gained 1.82 percent.

Robusta prices climbed sharply due to continued dry conditions in Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer.

According to weather forecaster Vaisala, recent rainfall in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s main coffee growing region, has been uneven. Additional rain is needed to support cherry development.

El Niño Risks in Brazil

Concerns over a possible El Niño weather pattern in Brazil also supported prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño could delay seasonal rains in Brazil during September and October, the critical flowering period for coffee trees, potentially affecting the country’s 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates an 82 percent probability that El Niño conditions will develop between May and July and continue through the end of the year, including a 67 percent chance of a Super El Niño.

Despite Tuesday’s gains, coffee prices have generally weakened over the past month as expectations for larger global supplies weighed on the market. Arabica futures fell to a one and a half year low last week following several optimistic crop forecasts for Brazil.

Supply Forecasts and Vietnam Exports

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest at 71.4 million bags, up 12 percent year on year.

Marex Group forecast a record crop of 75.9 million bags, while StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags. StoneX also projected the global coffee surplus could expand to 10 million bags in 2026, compared with 1.8 million bags in 2025.

Additional pressure on robusta prices has come from rising exports from Vietnam. On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports during January to April rose 15.8 percent year on year to 810,000 metric tons.

Full year exports for 2025 increased 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to rise 6 percent to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags, the highest level in four years.

Inventories and Other Factors

Indicator	Value
July arabica close (Tuesday)	Up 0.61% (KCN26)
July robusta close (Tuesday)	Up 1.82% (RMN26)
Vietnam coffee exports (Jan-Apr 2026)	810,000 MT (+15.8% y/y)
ICE robusta inventories (May 22)	3,968 lots (6-week high)
ICE arabica inventories (Tuesday)	446,816 bags (3.25-month low)
Brazil April green coffee exports	2.76 million bags (-1.3% y/y)

ICE coffee inventories have generally declined over the past two months, offering some support to prices.

ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 before recovering slightly to 3,968 lots last Friday.

ICE arabica inventories dropped to a three and a quarter month low of 446,816 bags on Tuesday.

Brazilian export data also provided support. Cecafe reported on May 12 that Brazil’s April green coffee exports declined 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags.

Disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have increased shipping costs, insurance premiums, fertilizer expenses, and fuel prices, tightening global coffee supply chains.

Global Production Outlook

The International Coffee Organization reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3 percent year on year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projects global coffee production for 2025/26 will rise 2 percent to a record 178.848 million bags.

The report forecasts arabica production declining 4.7 percent to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production increases 10.9 percent to 83.333 million bags. FAS estimates Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production at 63 million bags, down 3.1 percent, while Vietnam’s output is expected to rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast to decline 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why did coffee prices rise on Tuesday?

Prices rose due to dry conditions in Vietnam threatening robusta cherry development and potential El Niño risks in Brazil that could delay flowering rains.

2. How much did robusta and arabica gain?

July robusta gained 1.82 percent, while July arabica rose 0.61 percent.

3. What is the El Niño risk for Brazil?

El Niño could delay September-October rains, the critical flowering period for coffee trees, potentially hurting the 2026/27 crop.

4. How much did Vietnam’s coffee exports increase?

Exports rose 15.8 percent in January-April 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.

5. What happened to ICE coffee inventories?

Robusta inventories recovered to 3,968 lots, while arabica inventories fell to a 3.25-month low of 446,816 bags.

6. What is the global production forecast for 2025/26?

USDA projects record production of 178.848 million bags, with arabica down 4.7% and robusta up 10.9%.

Qahwa World – Based on Barchart commodity data.
Published: May 27, 2026

Brazil Coffee Production to Hit Record 66.7 Million Bags in 2026

Posted on May 27, 2026May 27, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília
Source: National Supply Company of Brazil (Conab), Cecafé, MDIC
Date: May 26, 2026This update covers expectations for a Brazil coffee production 2026 record, based on the latest reports and forecasts.

Brazil Coffee Output to Hit Record 66.7 Million Bags in 2026

Executive Summary

Brazil’s coffee production for the 2026 harvest is forecast at 66.7 million 60 kg bags, an 18% increase over 2025 and a new record, surpassing the 2020 harvest of 63.08 million bags.
Arabica production is expected to reach 45.8 million bags (+28%), while Robusta (Conilon) is forecast at 20.9 million bags (+0.8%).
Total planted area rises 3.9% to 2.34 million hectares, with national average productivity projected at 34.4 bags per hectare (+13%).
Minas Gerais, the largest producer, is forecast at 33.4 million bags (+29.8%). Espírito Santo follows with 18 million bags (+3%).
Brazil exported 11.5 million bags from January to April 2026, down 22.5% year-on-year due to low stocks, but April exports jumped 11.2% to 4.27 million bags, signaling recovery with the new harvest.
The USDA projects world production for 2025/26 at 178.8 million bags (+2%), with global demand rising 1.3% to 173.9 million bags, keeping prices elevated.

The National Supply Company of Brazil (Conab) released its second harvest survey on May 21, 2026, forecasting a record coffee production of 66.7 million 60 kg bags for the 2026 crop year, an 18% increase over the previous season.

If confirmed, this will be the largest harvest in Conab’s historical series, surpassing the 2020 record of 63.08 million bags.

The positive biennial cycle (higher production year for Arabica), the entry of new areas into production, and favorable weather conditions are the main drivers of this growth.

The total coffee area is expected to increase by 3.9% to 2.34 million hectares, comprising 1.94 million hectares of productive fields and 401,700 hectares of young plantations. National average productivity is projected to recover by 13% to 34.4 bags per hectare.

Arabica and Robusta Production

Arabica coffee production is forecast at 45.8 million bags, a 28% increase over 2025. This would be the third-highest Arabica harvest on record, behind only 2020 and 2018.

The expansion is driven by the positive biennial cycle, a larger area under production, and favorable weather conditions, particularly good rainfall distribution during the flowering period.

Robusta (Conilon) production is expected to reach 20.9 million bags, a modest 0.8% increase. While the harvested area is projected to grow to 388,220 hectares, average yields are estimated to drop 3.5% to 53.9 bags per hectare.

This decline reflects the high yields achieved in 2025 (a natural off-year for Robusta’s biennial cycle is less pronounced) and below-average temperatures in Espírito Santo during the production cycle, which affected plant physiology.

Production by State

Minas Gerais, the country’s largest coffee producer, is forecast to harvest 33.4 million bags (combining both species), a 29.8% increase over 2025.

This result is attributed to the positive biennial cycle combined with better rainfall distribution, especially in the months preceding flowering, as well as favorable weather through March, which provided good grain formation.

Espírito Santo, the second-largest producer, is expected to harvest 18 million bags, a 3% increase. Arabica production in the state is projected to rise 27.9% to 4.4 million bags, benefiting from the high biennial cycle.

However, Conilon production is forecast at 13.6 million bags, a 4.2% decrease due to the record-high performance in 2025 and below-average temperatures.

Bahia is expected to produce 4.7 million bags (+5.9%), supported by consistent weather, increased producer investment, and new areas entering production. São Paulo is forecast at 5.9 million bags (+24.6%), where only Arabica is grown. Rondônia is expected to produce 2.8 million bags (+19.4%), driven by the renewal of genetic material with more productive clonal plants and favorable weather.

Table 1: Brazil Coffee Production Forecast by State (2026, million 60 kg bags)

State	2026 Production (million bags)	Change vs 2025	Main species
Minas Gerais	33.4	+29.8%	Arabica
Espírito Santo	18.0	+3.0%	Robusta (Conilon)
São Paulo	5.9	+24.6%	Arabica
Bahia	4.7	+5.9%	Both
Rondônia	2.8	+19.4%	Robusta

Exports: April Recovery Signals New Harvest

According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), Brazil exported 4.27 million 60 kg bags in April 2026, an 11.2% increase compared to April 2025 (3.84 million bags). This was the first monthly increase in 2026, indicating the beginning of an export recovery as the new harvest enters the market.

“The rise in April reflects the start of the new harvest season in Brazil, which contributed to increased coffee availability for export,” said Horacio Miranda, analyst at hEDGEpoint. This upward trend supports Cecafé’s expectations of higher exports in the second half of the year.

In contrast, total exports from January to April 2026 reached 11.6 million bags, a 16.1% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. Export revenue for the first four months totaled $4.49 billion, down 14.4% year-on-year, according to MDIC data.

The decline in early 2026 reflects low domestic stocks resulting from limited production in previous years and strong export demand.

The main destinations in April were Germany, the United States, Italy, Belgium, and Japan.

Table 2: Brazil Monthly Coffee Exports (million 60 kg bags)

Month	2024 (million bags)	2025 (million bags)	2026 (million bags)	Change (Apr 2026 vs Apr 2025)
January	3.2	3.1	2.9	–
February	2.8	2.9	2.4	–
March	3.0	3.2	2.6	–
April	3.4	3.84	4.27	+11.2%

Global Market Outlook

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts world coffee production for the 2025/26 cycle at 178.8 million 60 kg bags, a 2% increase over the previous cycle.

Despite the production increase, no significant price reductions are expected due to low carryover stocks from the previous cycle and a projected 1.3% increase in global demand to 173.9 million bags.

Brazil’s record harvest will play a major role in replenishing global stocks and meeting rising demand, particularly for high-quality Arabica beans.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will Brazil produce in 2026?

Brazil is forecast to produce 66.7 million 60 kg bags, an 18% increase over 2025, setting a new record.

What is driving the production increase?

The positive biennial cycle (high-yield year for Arabica), expansion of planted area (+3.9%), and favorable weather conditions, especially good rainfall distribution.

Which Brazilian state produces the most coffee?

Minas Gerais is the largest producer, forecast at 33.4 million bags, a 29.8% increase.

How are Brazil’s coffee exports performing?

April exports jumped 11.2% to 4.27 million bags, signaling recovery with the new harvest. However, January-April exports were down 16.1% due to low stocks.

What is the global coffee market outlook?

USDA projects world production at 178.8 million bags (+2%) and demand at 173.9 million bags (+1.3%), keeping prices elevated due to low stocks.

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília | Source: Conab, Cecafé, MDIC, USDA | Date: May 26, 2026

El Niño: What It Is and How It Affects Coffee

Posted on May 22, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – Climate Desk

Source: NOAA, WMO, ICO, StoneX, industry sources
Date: May 22, 2026

Executive Summary

There is a 96% probability that El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026‑2027.
Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region have already exceeded the +0.5°C El Niño threshold.
Vietnam and Indonesia face drought and higher temperatures, threatening Robusta yields.
Brazil may see irregular rainfall during critical flowering (August‑October 2026), reducing Arabica quality.
Colombia and Central America face mixed risks: excess rain (leaf rust) or drought.
Analysts expect higher coffee price volatility in 2027, with Robusta supply risks pushing futures higher.
Smallholder farmers in vulnerable regions could face income losses, food insecurity, and migration pressure.

As of mid‑May 2026, the tropical Pacific is showing unmistakable signs of a rapid transition toward El Niño conditions.

According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion released on May 14, there is an 82% probability that El Niño will emerge between May and July 2026, rising to a 96% chance that it will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026‑2027.

Scientists are closely monitoring whether this event could evolve into a Super El Niño, potentially rivaling the record‑strength episodes of 1982‑83, 1997‑98, or 2015‑16. With sea surface temperatures in key Niño regions already warming sharply, the stage is set for significant disruptions to global weather patterns — from devastating floods in South America to severe droughts across Southeast Asia and parts of East Africa.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño (Spanish for “The Little Boy” or “Christ Child”) is the warm phase of the El Niño‑Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Earth’s most influential climate variability pattern. Under normal conditions, strong easterly trade winds push warm surface water westward across the equatorial Pacific toward Indonesia, allowing cold, nutrient‑rich water to upwell off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. During El Niño, these trade winds weaken or reverse. Warm water spreads eastward, suppressing upwelling and altering atmospheric circulation patterns worldwide.

The counterpart, La Niña, brings cooler waters and opposite weather effects. ENSO events typically occur every 2‑7 years and last 9‑18 months.

Current Status – May 2026

The equatorial Pacific is currently in a transitional state following a weak La Niña. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region have risen rapidly, with recent weekly values exceeding the +0.5°C El Niño threshold.

Multiple international models, including those from NOAA, the ECMWF, and the WMO, show high confidence in El Niño development by mid‑to‑late 2026. While peak strength remains uncertain, some projections suggest anomalies could exceed +2.0°C, raising the possibility of a strong‑to‑very‑strong event.

Global Weather Impacts

El Niño redistributes heat and moisture across the planet:

South America (Peru, Ecuador, northern Brazil): Increased rainfall and flooding risks, potential damage to infrastructure and agriculture.
Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Australia: Significantly reduced rainfall, drought, higher wildfire risk, water shortages.
East Africa: Wetter‑than‑average conditions, increased flood and disease risks.
Southern United States: Wetter winters; Northern US and Canada often milder.
Global: Elevated average temperatures (El Niño typically adds ~0.1–0.3°C to global surface temperatures).

Impact on Global Coffee Production

Coffee is one of the most climate‑sensitive major commodities. With roughly 12.5 million farming families dependent on it worldwide, any major ENSO event sends ripples through prices, quality, and livelihoods. The 2026‑2027 El Niño is expected to affect both Arabica and Robusta differently across key origins.

1. Brazil – The World’s Largest Producer

Brazil faces a complex outlook. While the current 2026/27 harvest is projected to be strong, El Niño could disrupt the critical flowering period (August‑October 2026) through irregular rainfall or excessive heat. Historical patterns show El Niño often brings drier conditions to key Arabica regions in Minas Gerais and São Paulo, potentially reducing bean size, increasing defects, and lowering quality.

2. Vietnam and Indonesia – Robusta Heartlands

These two giants are highly vulnerable to El Niño‑induced drought and elevated temperatures. Reduced rainfall and prolonged dry seasons can stress Robusta trees, leading to smaller beans, lower yields, and higher production costs due to increased irrigation needs. The 2015‑16 El Niño caused notable declines in Robusta output in these regions.

3. Colombia, Central America, and East Africa

Colombia and Central America face mixed signals: potential for excessive rainfall in some areas (increasing fungal diseases like coffee leaf rust) or drought in others. Ethiopia and Kenya may see wetter conditions that boost yields in some highlands but heighten disease pressure and complicate harvesting.

Overall Market Outlook

Analysts anticipate higher price volatility in 2027 as the event peaks. While Brazil’s large crop may buffer total volume in the short term, quality concerns and Robusta supply risks could push Arabica and Robusta futures higher. The ICO and major traders are already factoring these risks into their forecasts.

Broader Economic and Humanitarian Implications

Price Spikes: Coffee futures have already shown sensitivity to El Niño headlines, with short covering observed.
Smallholder Farmers: Millions in vulnerable regions face income losses, food insecurity, and potential migration pressures.
Supply Chain: Roasters, traders, and consuming countries should prepare for tighter specialty‑grade supplies and elevated costs.
Compounding Factors: Persistent low stocks, high input costs (fertilizers, labor), and climate change amplify risks.

Recommendations and Preparedness

For Governments and International Organizations: Strengthen early warning systems, support farmers with drought‑resistant varieties, irrigation, shade management, and crop insurance. The WMO, FAO, and ICO should coordinate contingency planning.

For the Coffee Industry: Diversify sourcing strategies, invest in sustainable practices that build resilience, and monitor ENSO updates monthly.

For Consumers: Expect potential price increases in premium and everyday coffee blends throughout 2027. Supporting traceable, climate‑smart coffee can help mitigate long‑term risks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the probability that El Niño will persist through winter 2026/2027?

NOAA estimates a 96% probability that El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026‑2027.

Which coffee origins are most at risk from this El Niño?

Vietnam and Indonesia (Robusta) face drought; Brazil (Arabica) may see irregular flowering; Colombia and Central America face mixed flood/drought risks.

How could El Niño affect coffee prices?

Analysts expect higher price volatility in 2027. Robusta supply risks could push futures higher, and specialty‑grade supplies may tighten.

What can smallholder farmers do to prepare?

Governments and organizations should provide drought‑resistant varieties, irrigation support, shade management, and crop insurance.

How does this El Niño compare to past events?

Models suggest it could become a strong‑to‑very‑strong event, potentially rivaling 1982‑83, 1997‑98, or 2015‑16, but final strength remains uncertain.

What are the broader economic risks beyond coffee?

Smallholder farmers face income losses and food insecurity; supply chains face tighter supplies and elevated costs; migration pressures may increase.

Author: Qahwa World – Climate Desk | Source: NOAA, WMO, ICO, StoneX, industry sources | Date: May 22, 2026

Coffee Prices Fall Sharply as Brazilian Real Weakens

Posted on May 16, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart | Author: Qahwa World | Date: May 15, 2026 Coffee Prices are the focus of this article.

July arabica coffee fell 3.12% to a nine-month low, while July robusta declined 3.58% during Friday trading.
The Brazilian real dropped to a five-week low against the U.S. dollar, prompting domestic producers to accelerate export sales.
Multiple industry analysts forecast a significant year-over-year increase for Brazil’s upcoming 2026/27 harvest, reaching up to 75.9 million bags.
Forecasters expect the global coffee surplus to expand dramatically to 10 million bags in 2026, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025.
Tight ICE inventories provided early-week support before supply pressure reversed market gains.
Vietnam expanded coffee exports by 15.8% year over year from January to April 2026, adding further bearish weight to robusta prices.
Ongoing shipping disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz raise international concerns regarding elevated freight and insurance expenses.

Coffee prices moved sharply lower on Friday, with July arabica coffee falling 3.12% and July robusta declining 3.58%. Arabica futures dropped to a nine-month low, while robusta reached a one-week low. A major factor behind the decline was weakness in Brazil’s currency, which significantly shifted market dynamics at the close of the week.

The Brazilian real fell to a five-week low against the U.S. dollar, encouraging Brazilian producers to increase export sales. A weaker real typically makes Brazilian coffee more competitive in global markets. Consequently, this currency movement put heavy downward pressure on international prices as supply availability accelerated.

Larger Brazilian Crop Expectations Pressure the Market

Forecasts for Brazil’s upcoming coffee harvest continue to weigh heavily on market sentiment. The Coffee Trading Academy recently projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop at 71.4 million bags, representing a 12% increase year over year. However, other major market projections indicate even higher numbers for the upcoming season.

Forecasting Institution	Projected 2026/27 Crop Size	Market Notes
Marex Group	75.9 million bags	Projected record-high harvest
Sucafina	75.4 million bags	Indicates strong export potential
StoneX	75.3 million bags	Raised from the previous estimate of 70.7 million bags
Coffee Trading Academy	71.4 million bags	Up 12% compared to the prior year

Furthermore, StoneX expects the global coffee surplus to expand to 10 million bags in 2026. This figure marks a sharp increase from the 1.8 million bags recorded in 2025. If realized, this expansion will represent the largest global surplus seen in the coffee industry in six years.

Tight ICE Inventories and Shipping Conditions

Despite the overall bearish outlook, tight exchange inventories provided some support earlier in the week. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots, while ICE arabica inventories declined to a two-and-a-half-month low of 471,831 bags. These lower stock levels helped robusta reach a seven-week high and arabica a one-week high before prices reversed lower.

Meanwhile, Brazilian export data offered limited support to the market. Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3% year over year to 2.76 million bags. Additionally, reports of continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns about global shipping costs. Higher freight, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs could increase long-term expenses for coffee importers and roasters worldwide.

Vietnam’s Rising Exports Pressure Robusta Prices

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continues to expand its exports and total production. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office, coffee exports during January–April 2026 rose 15.8% year over year to 810,000 metric tons. This follows full-year 2025 exports, which increased 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons.

Furthermore, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to rise 6% to 1.76 million metric tons, which is equivalent to 29.4 million bags. The steady increase in Vietnamese supply remains a primary bearish factor for global robusta prices.

Global Production Expected to Reach Record Levels

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts global coffee production in 2025/26 will rise 2% year over year to a record 178.8 million bags. Market trends vary by region and coffee type, as outlined by the international agency data.

Region or Coffee Variety	Production Forecast (2025/26)	Year-over-Year Change
Global Arabica Production	95.5 million bags	Down 4.7%
Global Robusta Production	83.3 million bags	Up 10.9%
Brazil Production Total	63.0 million bags	Down 3.1%
Vietnam Production Total	30.8 million bags	Up 6.2% (four-year high)

The Foreign Agricultural Service also forecasts that global ending stocks will decline 5.4% to 20.1 million bags in 2025/26. While ending stocks show a slight contraction, the massive production volumes from major growing hubs continue to dictate the downward path of exchange prices.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: Why did coffee prices decline significantly at the end of the week?

A1: Prices fell because the Brazilian real weakened against the U.S. dollar, which incentivized Brazilian coffee producers to increase their export sales to international markets.

Q2: What are the crop expectations for Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest?

A2: Analysts project a very large harvest. Estimates range from 71.4 million bags from the Coffee Trading Academy up to a record 75.9 million bags from Marex Group.

Q3: How large is the projected global coffee surplus for 2026?

A3: StoneX projects that the global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags in 2026, a major increase from the 1.8 million bags seen in 2025.

Q4: What role do Vietnam’s export numbers play in the robusta market?

A4: Vietnam increased its coffee exports by 15.8% during January–April 2026. This rising supply continues to apply downward price pressure specifically on robusta futures.

Q5: What logistical challenges are currently affecting the global coffee supply chain?

A5: Ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have raised worries over shipping operations, which could increase expenses for freight, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel worldwide.

Source: Barchart | Author: Market Desk | Date: May 15, 2026

ADERE-MG Continues Fight Against Forced Labour in Brazil’s Coffee Sector

Posted on May 16, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Business and Human Rights Centre and industry reports

Author: Qahwa World

Date: May 16, 2026

A new report highlighted forced labour risks in Brazil’s coffee sector.
Investigators found indicators of abuse in every worker interview.
Workers described poor housing and abusive recruitment practices.
Many exploitation cases reportedly remain undetected.
Industry groups and government bodies issued public responses.
ADERE-MG said the struggle against forced labour continues.
The findings renewed pressure on coffee supply chain transparency.

New human rights reports have renewed attention on labour conditions in Brazil’s coffee sector after investigations revealed continuing signs of forced labour during the 2025 harvest season.
The findings followed the release of the latest food and beverage benchmark by the KnowTheChain Project in February 2026.

The benchmark warned that many global companies remain unprepared to address climate-related forced labour risks across agricultural supply chains.
In parallel, field investigations conducted in Minas Gerais revealed recurring labour violations on coffee plantations.

Field Investigations Reveal Labour Abuses

KnowTheChain partnered with the Articulation of Rural Employees of the State of Minas Gerais, known as ADERE-MG, to investigate working conditions on Brazilian coffee farms.
According to the report, investigators identified indicators of forced labour in every interview conducted with workers.

Workers described abusive recruitment methods and degrading living conditions.
They also reported a lack of transparency regarding the companies purchasing the coffee they harvested.
As a result, workers struggled to seek remedies or accountability.

The report stated that Brazilian labour authorities sanctioned some plantations during the 2025 harvest.
However, many additional cases reportedly remained undetected because of limited enforcement resources and weak corporate action.

Government and Industry Responses

The findings generated strong reactions across Brazil’s coffee sector.
The National Coffee Council and Brazilian government representatives issued statements reaffirming their commitment to decent work and efforts to combat forced labour.

In response, ADERE-MG published a separate statement stressing that serious labour challenges remain unresolved.
The organization argued that existing measures still fail to address widespread exploitation in parts of the coffee supply chain.

The Business and Human Rights Centre also released a statement responding to comments made by government officials and coffee industry representatives.

Date	Organization	Content Type	Main Topic
May 14, 2026	Business and Human Rights Centre	NGO Response	Response to government and industry statements
May 14, 2026	ADERE-MG	NGO Response	Continued fight against forced labour
April 17, 2026	National Coffee Board	Article	Commitment to decent work and labour protections
March 23, 2026	National Coffee Council	Article	Rejection of generalizations about coffee farming

Supply Chain Pressure Continues

Brazil remains one of the world’s largest coffee producers.
Therefore, labour conditions in its coffee industry attract significant international attention from buyers, regulators, and human rights groups.

Analysts say supply chain transparency remains a major challenge.
Companies face growing pressure to improve traceability and verify labour conditions across coffee-producing regions.

In addition, climate pressures and seasonal labour shortages continue to increase concerns about worker exploitation in agricultural industries worldwide.

FAQ

What is ADERE-MG?
ADERE-MG is an organization representing rural workers in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais.

What did the investigation find?
Investigators reported indicators of forced labour in all worker interviews conducted during the study.

What labour issues were identified?
Workers described abusive recruitment practices, poor living conditions, and limited transparency.

Did authorities take action?
Brazilian labour authorities sanctioned some plantations during the 2025 harvest season.

How did the coffee sector respond?
Industry representatives said they remain committed to decent work and labour protections.

Why is the issue important globally?
Brazil’s coffee industry plays a major role in international coffee supply chains and exports.

Brazil’s Coffee Market Growth: How Domestic Consumption Strengthens the Industry

Posted on May 6, 2026May 6, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Brazil continues to lead the global coffee industry, not only as the largest producer but also as one of the biggest consumers. This balance between production and domestic demand has created a resilient coffee sector that can adapt to global market shifts.

Key Insights

Brazil is a top global coffee producer and consumer.
Specialty coffee accounts for approximately 5–10% of the domestic market.
Urban demand is driving growth in premium and traceable coffee.
Strong local consumption helps offset export market risks.

Brazil’s Coffee Production and Domestic Demand

Brazil’s coffee production continues to expand, with forecasts pointing to record output in the coming seasons. At the same time, domestic consumption remains strong, supporting the industry from within.

Coffee is deeply embedded in Brazilian culture, consumed daily across all regions and social groups. This widespread consumption provides stability, even during periods of global trade uncertainty.

In recent years, specialty coffee has emerged as a fast-growing segment. More consumers are seeking higher-quality beans, better traceability, and unique flavour profiles, contributing to a shift in purchasing behaviour.

The Historical Roots of Coffee Culture in Brazil

Coffee has been part of Brazil’s identity for centuries. Since its introduction in the 18th century, cultivation has expanded across major regions such as Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro.

As Brazil became a dominant force in global coffee production, it also developed a strong domestic coffee tradition. One of the most iconic examples is cafezinho, a small, sweetened coffee that remains a staple of daily life.

Historically, higher-quality beans were exported, while domestic consumption focused on darker roasts. However, industry efforts in the early 2000s helped improve quality awareness among consumers, encouraging a more refined approach to coffee drinking.

The Rise of Specialty Coffee in Brazil

Brazil’s specialty coffee sector has grown steadily over the past two decades. Industry initiatives, competitions, and educational programs have encouraged producers to prioritise quality alongside volume.

Consumers are now more interested in origin, processing methods, and sensory characteristics. This shift is particularly evident in major cities, where independent cafés and roasters are shaping modern coffee culture.

While traditional brewing methods remain popular, espresso-based drinks and manual brewing techniques such as pour-over are becoming more common in homes and cafés.

Balancing Volume and Quality

Brazil’s strength lies in its ability to produce coffee at scale while improving quality standards. Many producers are expanding their roles, investing in technology, and developing new strategies to differentiate their products.

A strong domestic market supports these efforts by creating opportunities to sell higher-value coffee locally, increasing profitability and reducing reliance on exports.

Responding to Global Market Challenges

Global trade disruptions have highlighted the importance of domestic consumption. In recent years, uncertainty in export markets has encouraged Brazilian producers to diversify their strategies.

Some are focusing more on local sales, strengthening internal supply chains and supporting long-term industry stability.

Future Outlook for Brazil’s Coffee Industry

Brazil’s coffee sector remains one of the most advanced and adaptable in the world. Its combination of large-scale production, strong domestic consumption, and a growing specialty segment positions it for continued success.

As other coffee-producing countries aim to expand their domestic markets, Brazil provides a clear example of how internal demand can support sustainable growth.

Brazil Breeds New Coffee to Face Climate Threat

Brazil’s Robusta Coffee Expands as Climate Hits Global Crops

Lavazza Launches Regenerative Coffee for Professionals

Posted on April 28, 2026April 28, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

On Earth Day, Lavazza has introduced La Reserva de ¡Tierra! Selection, its first coffee for the professional channel certified under the regenerative agriculture standard developed by the Rainforest Alliance.

The launch marks a new step in the company’s sustainability strategy, combining existing Rainforest Alliance Sustainable Agriculture certification with the newer regenerative agriculture certification. The dual certification reflects farming practices aimed at restoring ecosystems, improving soil health, protecting biodiversity, and supporting coffee-growing communities.

The development follows a multi-year effort by Lavazza to integrate regenerative agriculture across its supply chain. Since 2023, the group has advanced projects through its research, development, and corporate social responsibility teams in origin countries, focusing on agronomic practices, environmental impact measurement, traceability, and farmer engagement.

In parallel, the company has supported an early implementation program in Honduras, where more than 70 farms have achieved certification under the Rainforest Alliance Regenerative Agriculture Standard. The initiative included technical training, operational support, and structured guidance to assist farmers in transitioning to regenerative practices.

According to Lavazza, this combined approach has enabled the faster introduction of a coffee product meeting both certification standards, building on its partnership with the Rainforest Alliance that dates back more than two decades.

The Rainforest Alliance Regenerative Agriculture Standard is designed to promote a “Nature Positive” approach to farming. It emphasizes soil restoration, climate resilience through agroforestry, biodiversity protection, improved water management, and better livelihoods for farming communities.

La Reserva de ¡Tierra! Selection is a 100% Arabica blend, combining natural coffees from Brazil with washed coffees from Honduras. Developed for the food service sector, it offers a balanced flavor profile with notes of jasmine, almonds, and milk chocolate, and is designed for consistent extraction in professional settings.

The blend includes coffee sourced from certified farms in Brazil and Honduras, along with a portion from a project supported by the Lavazza Foundation in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region. The initiative focuses on farmer training, agricultural planning, and improvements to living conditions.

Lavazza said the new product will be available in international markets starting in June, supported by a digital campaign highlighting its regenerative agriculture efforts and collaboration with certified farms.

Founded in Turin in 1895, Lavazza operates in more than 140 markets and remains one of the leading global coffee companies, with a portfolio that includes several international brands. The Rainforest Alliance continues to work with farmers, companies, and communities worldwide to promote sustainable agriculture and environmental conservation.

Trump Tariffs Reshape Global Coffee Trade

Posted on April 28, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Tariff policies introduced during 2025 have contributed to significant shifts in the global coffee trade, pushing industry players to rethink supply chains and accelerate structural changes across the sector.

In 2025, broad tariff measures were imposed on imports of green coffee beans and roasting equipment. The initial rate started at around 10%, but in some cases increased substantially on major coffee-producing countries such as Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Mexico.

These measures were not applied consistently over time. Later adjustments, exemptions, and partial rollbacks were introduced following trade negotiations and policy revisions, including relief for certain agricultural goods that are not domestically produced, such as coffee. Despite this, the early phase of the tariffs had already created noticeable disruption.

The impact included higher roasted coffee prices in certain markets, shifts in export flows, and widespread instability across global supply chains.

Supply Chain Disruption

The changes exposed how sensitive the global coffee system is to trade policy shifts. Key developments included:

A decline in exports from Brazil to the United States, with redirected shipments toward Asia and the Middle East
Increased tariff pressure on exports from Vietnam, Indonesia, and Mexico, pushing buyers to search for alternative origins
Rising costs for coffee equipment such as grinders and espresso machines due to import dependencies

Frequent policy changes made long-term planning difficult, increasing operational uncertainty and raising costs across the supply chain.

Beyond Beans: Equipment and Infrastructure

The impact was not limited to green coffee. Imported roasting and café equipment also became more expensive, increasing the cost of opening or upgrading coffee shops.

This added pressure came on top of ongoing global supply chain disruptions, including higher raw material costs and shipping delays in recent years.

Market Adaptation Strategies

As costs rose, market participants explored different ways to adapt, including:

Rerouting shipments through countries with lower tariff exposure
Reclassifying origin within multi-stage production chains
Establishing roasting and packaging operations in third countries to alter customs classification

Large multinational companies were generally better positioned to implement such strategies due to capital availability and infrastructure flexibility.

Historical Context of Coffee Trade Workarounds

Attempts to bypass trade restrictions are not new in coffee history. Over centuries, coffee spread globally through a mix of legal trade, secrecy, and strategic relocation of plants and beans.

Historical examples include:

Early movement of coffee cultivation from its origin regions into Asia and the Americas through controlled and often restricted transfers
The spread of coffee plants to Southeast Asia and Latin America via maritime trade routes in earlier centuries
Historical episodes in Europe where coffee was heavily taxed or restricted, leading to informal trade networks and enforcement efforts

These patterns show that trade restrictions have historically encouraged alternative distribution channels.

Shifting Global Demand

Several broader trends accelerated during this period:

Growth in coffee consumption in Asia and the Middle East
Expansion of domestic consumption in producing countries
Increasing focus on supply diversification by major importers
Stronger regulatory attention in some markets on sustainability and climate-related sourcing

Together, these shifts suggest a gradual rebalancing of global coffee consumption and trade flows.

Uncertain Long-Term Outcomes

The long-term effects of these tariff-related disruptions remain unclear. Some analysts expect elevated price levels to persist even after policy normalization, due to accumulated supply chain inefficiencies.

While tariffs are often intended to support domestic industries, the observed effects in many cases have included:

Increased costs for importers and roasters, particularly smaller businesses
Higher consumer prices in retail and café markets
Reduced supply chain efficiency due to rerouting and compliance complexity
Limited direct benefit to producers in developing countries in many cases

Larger companies have generally been better able to absorb shocks, potentially contributing to greater consolidation within the industry.

Conclusion

The tariff developments of 2025 may represent a turning point in the global coffee trade system. Combined with shifting consumption patterns, rising new markets, and evolving supply chain strategies, the industry appears to be entering a new structural phase.

The key question moving forward is whether these changes will lead to a more resilient and balanced global coffee economy, or further concentrate influence among large multinational players.

Coffee has always moved across borders in response to economic and political pressure. Once again, it is adapting—reshaping itself along with the global systems that depend on it.