Tag: Trade

EFICO Coffee Sourcing Strategy 2025 and Global Market Trends

Posted on by Qahwa World
Dubai – Qahwa World

The coffee market has always been volatile, but in recent years fluctuations have intensified. While prices were historically shaped by harvest expectations, weather patterns, and supply–demand dynamics, financial market mechanisms, including speculative trading and algorithm-driven strategies are increasingly amplifying price swings, sometimes exceeding underlying supply fundamentals.

At the same time, climate change remains the most significant long-term challenge facing the sector. Across producing regions, erratic weather patterns—from prolonged droughts to unexpected rainfall and extreme storms—disrupt harvest cycles, reduce yields, and create growing uncertainty throughout the global coffee value chain.

In 2025, several of these pressures converged. Arabica prices surged on the New York C-Market amid drought-affected Brazilian crops and delayed harvests in parts of Central America. Logistical bottlenecks, geopolitical tensions, and lingering trade policies—including tariffs introduced under the Trump administration—added further complexity to the global trading environment. Meanwhile, regulatory developments in the European Union—notably the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and updated organic standards—introduced additional compliance requirements for actors across the coffee value chain.

Despite this challenging environment, EFICO achieved strategic growth in 2025, moving more coffee than ever while continuing to build on nearly a century of experience in connecting coffee value chain partners. Through strategic sourcing and transparent collaboration with partner farmers, cooperatives, exporters, and roasters, EFICO works to strengthen every link in the chain—helping partners navigate market volatility, regulatory complexity, and climate-related challenges.

EFICO | Connecting the coffee value chain

For nearly a century, EFICO has connected coffee value chain partners through long-term, trusted relationships that foster resilience and shared growth. Through its origin offices and green coffee trading teams, EFICO works closely with partner farmers, cooperatives, and exporters, providing market access, technical guidance, and sustainability support while maintaining lasting partnerships with partner roasters worldwide.

Complementing its operational sourcing work, the EFICO Foundation supports coffee-producing communities worldwide—structurally supporting coffee farmers and their families while positively impacting livelihoods, prosperity, and the environment.

Purpose-driven local partnerships

EFICO’s sourcing strategy is built on purpose-driven partnerships across the coffee value chain, starting at origin. By collaborating closely with cooperatives, local exporters, and trusted supply partners, EFICO works to ensure a transparent and resilient coffee supply while reinvesting value locally in coffee-producing regions.

In 2025, 85% of EFICO’s coffee continued to be sourced from local actors, reflecting the company’s long-standing commitment to locally rooted supply chains. Within this share, cooperatives represented 23% of total sourcing volumes, while local exporters accounted for 57%, showing a slight shift compared to 2024. International exporters remained stable at 15% for the third consecutive year.

These long-term partnerships support local economies, strengthen farming communities, and reinforce resilience throughout the broader coffee value chain—particularly in times of market volatility and environmental uncertainty.

EFICO’s sourcing offices in Ethiopia, Central America, and Brazil remain central to this strategy. Beyond operational hubs, they serve as centers of adaptive collaboration, connecting EFICO directly to coffee-growing regions. By working closely with partner farmers, cooperatives, and suppliers on the ground, these origin offices help partner farmers navigate fluctuating market conditions, climate challenges, and evolving regulatory requirements, while strengthening relationships with partner roasters worldwide.

Certified, verified vs non-verified coffee

In 2025, EFICO recorded remarkable growth in absolute terms, with certified volumes increasing by 34% compared to last year, while shares among Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, and Organic remained stable, reflecting continued commitment to certifications.

Rainforest Alliance held the largest share at 64%, also leading in absolute growth, while Fairtrade and Organic recorded the largest relative growth, recovering from the decline observed in 2024 as premiums increased and market prices remained high.

A shift in origins was observed, with a lower share of Organic and Fairtrade sourced from Central America in favour of Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

However, overall coffee sourcing volumes increased even faster than certified volumes. As a result, the relative share of certified and verified coffee represented 49% of total sourcing—marking the third consecutive year of modest relative decrease.

Despite this shift, EFICO’s sourcing remains above the global market average, as reported by the Global Coffee Platform in 2024, which registered 47% sustainable sourcing under third-party schemes.

These dynamics reflect broader market conditions. During periods of high and volatile coffee prices, certification models can become more complex for both producers and buyers, as certification costs and administrative requirements must be balanced against market opportunities.

Strategic sourcing: key origins

The world map provides a 2025 snapshot of coffee origins, showing the shares of certified, verified, and non-verified coffee. These patterns vary across EFICO’s key coffee-producing regions, reflecting differences in sourcing volumes, certifications, and partnerships.

For a more detailed view, EFICO analysed sourcing data from its major origins—Brazil, Central America, and Ethiopia—and included Uganda as a key Robusta origin without a permanent EFICO office.

Brazil

Brazil remained EFICO’s largest sourcing origin in 2025, accounting for approximately one-third of total sourcing volumes. The country continues to provide high-quality Arabica coffees that form an essential component of both blends and single-origin offerings.

In 2025, 47% of EFICO’s Brazilian sourcing was certified. An additional 17% was verified under EFICO’s internal sustainability standards, including 6% independently verified and 11% aligned with partner-based sustainability systems. This brings the total share meeting certification or verification criteria to 64%.

At the same time, 85% of Brazilian coffee volumes were sourced from local actors, reinforcing EFICO’s long-standing commitment to strong local partnerships.

While certified volumes increased in absolute terms, the relative share of certified coffee declined slightly as conventional volumes expanded more rapidly amid strong market demand.

Central America

Central America remained one of EFICO’s most important regions for certified sourcing in 2025. 66% of coffees sourced from the region were certified, with Rainforest Alliance representing the largest share and showing the strongest growth.

Fairtrade sourcing also showed steady growth during the year, while Organic-certified coffees declined both in absolute volumes and relative share.

This trend reflects a combination of market dynamics and regulatory developments: high and volatile coffee prices influenced producer and buyer decisions, while the increasing complexity of complying with updated EU organic requirements made sourcing fully compliant Organic coffees more challenging in some producing countries.

Across the region, 79% of EFICO’s sourcing came from local actors, reinforcing long-standing partnerships with cooperatives and exporters.

Through the ongoing work of the EFICO Foundation, EFICO supports projects that promote training and education, sustainable income, infrastructure support with the aim of positively impacting coffee farmers’ livelihoods, prosperity, and environment.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia experienced significant growth in sourcing volumes in 2025, with total volumes more than doubling compared to the previous year. While much of this increase occurred in conventional coffees, certified volumes also expanded.

In total, 21% of Ethiopian coffees sourced by EFICO were certified, with an additional 19% meeting EFICO’s internal sustainability standards, bringing the total share aligned with sustainability criteria to 40%.

Local partnerships remain central to EFICO’s sourcing approach in Ethiopia, with 80% of volumes sourced from local actors.

A key partner in this development is KURU, EFICO’s long-standing sourcing partner in Ethiopia, which expanded its operations to eight washing and collecting stations in 2025—four more than in 2024.

This expansion strengthens processing capacity and traceability while reinforcing EFICO’s direct connection to coffee-producing communities.

Uganda

Uganda is included in this 2025 analysis because sourcing volumes from the country have grown significantly, making it a strategic addition to EFICO’s Robusta portfolio.

Within just two years, Uganda has become EFICO’s third-most important origin for Robusta coffee, even though sourcing remains predominantly conventional.

79% of Ugandan volumes were sourced from local actors, highlighting EFICO’s commitment to building sustainable, locally rooted supply relationships, even in regions without a permanent origin office.

EUDR readiness & supplier engagement

In 2025, EFICO continued its efforts to ensure compliance with the EU Deforestation Regulation, despite the late announcement of another one-year delay in its entry into application.

By the end of the year, 93% of geolocation datasets submitted for EUDR contracts were approved according to EFICO’s strictest standards and assessments.

A major step was the launch of EFICO’s supplier portal, improving data collection, traceability, segregation at shipment level, and annual legality reporting, including topics such as human rights and traceability.

Togo field engagement

Togo was selected for focused engagement to support suppliers less familiar with geolocation and traceability requirements.

Since early 2024, EFICO has trained local field teams to collect, harmonise, and validate farmer and plot-level data. Over 2025, nearly 10,000 GPS points were collected.

A second field visit in December 2025 implemented ground truthing procedures to verify deforestation alerts and assess multi-tier supply chains.

Most coffee plots are managed under agroforestry systems. Satellite-based alerts initially identified potential deforestation risks, but field verification ruled out most cases, confirming only a few instances linked to expansion into previously forested land.

Non-compliant plots were segregated within EFICO’s traceability systems, while farmers received training on deforestation prevention and sustainable land-use alternatives.

EFICO’s 2025 strategy highlights a balance between market resilience, sustainability, regulatory readiness, and long-term partnerships across the global coffee value chain.

Uganda’s Ambition Shakes Coffee Markets: A Historic Leap Toward 20 Million Bags

Posted on by Qahwa World

DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

While global markets remain preoccupied with weather volatility in Brazil, Uganda continues its steady and confident rise to solidify its position as the largest coffee exporting power in Africa, surpassing all conventional expectations.

According to data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) Report for January 2026, Uganda recorded a historic surge in its exports with a growth rate of 52.5%, serving as a primary contributor to the increase in the continent’s total exports.

This exceptional performance was no coincidence; rather, it is the result of a national strategy that enabled the country to exceed the 8.2 million bags (60 kg each) annual threshold, placing it seventh globally and transforming it into a “pivotal player” that cannot be ignored in the global supply equation.

Analytical insights from the report indicate that Uganda successfully exploited the “price vacuum” left by production disruptions in other regions by improving production quality and expanding cultivated areas.

The Ugandan success story relies on a unique diversity; the country balances the production of “Robusta,” which forms the backbone of its exports, and high-quality “Arabica” grown on mountain slopes.

This diversity has granted it high flexibility in facing global exchange fluctuations, as Ugandan coffee has become the first choice for roasters seeking “value for money,” especially with increasing demand for both varieties in emerging European and Asian markets.

Behind these figures lies Uganda’s most ambitious plan in the continent’s history, aiming to double production to reach 20 million bags by 2030.

This government vision includes a comprehensive modernization of the post-harvest sector, the distribution of disease-resistant seedlings, and enhancing the capacities of smallholder farmers who represent 90% of the productive force.

Analysts believe that Uganda reaching this figure will make it a direct competitor to countries the size of Vietnam, redrawing the power map of the global coffee market and reducing total dependence on Latin American production.

The recent export leap is not just a number in an international report; it is a clear signal to investors that the center of gravity in coffee production has begun to shift toward East Africa. The ambition of 20 million bags is no longer a distant dream but an economic reality taking shape under the mantle of sustainable development and agricultural leadership.

Robusta Defies Global Downturn, Trading Against the Tide

Posted on by Qahwa World

DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

While Arabica prices succumbed to the pressures of improving weather conditions in Brazil, the Robusta category recorded an exceptional case of economic resilience during January 2026, announcing the decoupling of its price path from the general market trend.

According to data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) Report, Robusta achieved a solitary growth of 1.0%, raising its average price to 218.83 cents per pound. This came at a time when all Arabica categories witnessed sharp declines, peaking at 4.5% for Brazilian Naturals and 3.6% for Colombian Milds.

This price divergence places the global coffee market before a new structural reality, where Robusta has transformed from a “substitute option” into a “primary pillar” for major roasting companies seeking to maintain their profit margins.

Coffee economy experts attribute this price defiance to the increasing industrial reliance on Robusta in commercial coffee blends and the instant coffee sector, serving as a defensive mechanism against the violent fluctuations in Arabica prices that touched record levels early in the month.

The price gap (Arbitrage) between the two varieties began to narrow under the pressure of growing demand, granting producers in Vietnam and Uganda a negotiating power that enabled them to resist the mass sell-off that swept the New York Stock Exchange.

Analyzing the data shows that Robusta was unaffected by the Brazilian “rain shock” that toppled Arabica prices, as its supply is concentrated in geographical areas far from the climatic fluctuations of Latin America, making it a “stable asset” in traders’ portfolios during January.

Furthermore, the International Coffee Organization report indicates that the tightness of immediate Robusta supply in central markets played a decisive role in supporting prices above the 218-cent level.

While speculators were offloading Arabica contracts in the futures market, factories were racing to secure their Robusta needs to ensure the continuity of production lines, especially with the growth of coffee consumption in emerging markets that favor this variety for its price efficiency and suitability for manufacturing.

This performance reflects a maturity in the Robusta market, as its linked contracts on the London Stock Exchange (ICE) now show clear independence from the movements of the New York Stock Exchange, forcing top analysts to re-evaluate the weight of this variety in future risk assessment reports.

In conclusion, January 2026 proves that Robusta no longer follows Arabica “like a shadow” but has instead led its own stability front. Its 1.0% price growth in a bearish environment is a testament to the strength of real physical demand that transcends speculative noise.

This shift means the global coffee industry has entered a “multipolar” era, where the global cup remains as dependent on the hardiness of Robusta beans as it is on the aesthetics of Arabica, making the monitoring of Southeast Asian and African supplies an indispensable pillar for understanding the future of international coffee trade.

Sustainability Day Sets the Technical and Policy Tone at AFCC&E

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Addis Ababa – Qahwa World × Buna Kurs

Day One of the 22nd African Fine Coffees Conference & Exhibition (AFCC&E) concluded in Addis Ababa with sustainability firmly positioned as the cornerstone of this year’s continental coffee dialogue. Following the morning’s high-level opening ceremony, the conference program transitioned into the 7th AFCA Sustainability Day, delivered in partnership with the Rainforest Alliance under the theme “Sustainability in Every Cup: Brewing a Regenerative Future, Today.”

At the center of the day’s agenda was the presentation and launch of the Rainforest Alliance Regenerative Agriculture Standard (RAS), a new certification framework designed to move beyond compliance toward ecosystem restoration and long-term farmer resilience across tropical landscapes.

Across the venue, the exhibition hall remained active throughout the day, with strong foot traffic from producers, exporters, buyers, service providers, and development partners. Exhibitors noted a visibly expanded floor layout and higher engagement compared to previous editions, reflecting both the growing scale of the event and renewed market interest in African coffee origins.

The Sustainability Day program highlighted how regenerative agriculture is being applied in practice across East Africa, with experiences shared from Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia, including MSuLLi, Mountain Harvest, Moplaco Farm, and sector partners working at farm, landscape, and market levels. A dedicated youth testimony segment reinforced a growing generational consensus: sustainability is no longer an add-on, but a prerequisite for remaining competitive in the global coffee sector.

Afternoon sessions shifted the discussion to the value of sustainability standards within the global supply chain, examining how certification, traceability, and transparency are increasingly shaping trade relationships. Panels featuring exporters, producers, and international buyers addressed the commercial realities of sustainability, with participation from Midrock Investments Group, Touton, ECOM, AMG Coffee Export, Preferred by Nature, and regional producer representatives.

Beyond the conference hall, B2B cupping sessions continued alongside networking activities, offering international buyers early exposure to coffees from across Africa while reinforcing the link between quality, sustainability, and market access.

Day One concluded with an invitation-only policy and networking reception, followed by the Opening Cocktail at the AICC Amphitheater, marking the informal start of a week expected to shape Africa’s coffee sustainability agenda for years to come.

Bridging the Gap: An Exclusive Dialogue with Vanusia Nogueira on the Global Coffee Crisis and the Path to 2026

Posted on by Qahwa World

From regulatory hurdles like the EUDR to the volatile C-Market and climate resilience, the Director General of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) outlines a strategic roadmap for a fairer global coffee value chain.

Dubai – Ali Alzakary

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) is the primary intergovernmental body dedicated to fostering a sustainable coffee sector. At its helm stands Mrs. Vanusia Nogueira, a visionary leader whose tenure has been defined by a relentless pursuit of equity for smallholder farmers.

This exclusive interview marks a historic moment—the first dialogue granted by the Director General to an Arabic media outlet. We are profoundly grateful to Mrs. Nogueira for graciously accepting our invitation. Beyond her professional stature, her humility and the sincerity with which she approached this conversation were truly remarkable. In an industry often characterized by formal diplomacy, her transparency and candor provided a clear and honest look at the challenges facing our sector. We are deeply indebted to her for her time, her precision, and the kindness she showed throughout this significant exchange.

  • Now that we are well into 2026, how do you personally see the ICO’s role in helping smallholder farmers cope with regulations like the EUDR and other environmental requirements?

The ICO acts as a vital bridge between producing and consuming nations. With 75% to 80% of global coffee producers being smallholders, our role is to make policymakers understand the ground-level challenges. There is often a lot of good intentions behind regulations, but policymakers and consumers are often unaware of how difficult it is to comply in the field. We educate these stakeholders and bring together partners—governments, development agencies, and the industry—to provide the technical and financial support that vulnerable communities need to make these transitions feasible and viable.

  • Traceability and data systems are becoming unavoidable. How can we ensure these costs don’t end up being paid mainly by small farmers?

We are building partnerships with the consuming side—the industry and governments—to support the infrastructure needed, from geolocations to databases. In many countries, the key issue is internal infrastructure, such as internet access. We are working with partners like the German, UK, and Italian governments to implement these systems. Furthermore, we need to educate consumers on why it is fair to pay a little more. Transparency is essential; we must show that these margins are necessary for producers to survive and thrive.

  • Looking back at 2025, has the industry made progress toward a “living income,” or are we still stuck with the C-Market logic?

Vanusia Nogueira: The sector learned in the past two years that a living income is not just about price. It is about closing gaps in productivity, yield, and infrastructure like healthcare and education. While producers in some regions reached a comfortable level last year due to higher prices, others are still struggling. A key solution is for small producers to stop working in isolation; they must organize into cooperatives or associations to access new markets and technical assistance together.

  • Regarding the climate impact on specific origins—in Yemen, for example, the harvest has become fragmented into multiple stages and quantities are dropping. How do you view this?

The situation in Yemen—where you have three or four harvests from the same tree instead of one—is a clear symptom of climate change that we must analyze deeply. We have seen similar shifts in Brazil. We need to understand if the traditional varieties in Yemen—which is one of the original homes of Arabica—are still suitable for this new climate or if we need to renovate the plantations with more resilient strains. Yemen’s heritage is a global priority, and scientists must work to find solutions that protect its unique productivity.

  • There is a growing debate about responsibility. Are large roasters and traders doing enough today?

I see major roasters and traders working very closely with producing countries on “pre-competitive” actions to address these challenges. I am in constant contact with global industry leaders, and I am confident they are totally open to new solutions and are supporting the initiatives needed to stabilize the sector.

  • How should the sector approach lab-grown and alternative coffee products without losing the value of natural coffee?

Vanusia Nogueira: Communication and clarity are paramount. It must be clear to everyone what is “real coffee” and what is a substitute. Natural coffee has scientifically proven health benefits, whereas the impact of chemical or artificial alternatives is often unmentioned. In countries like Brazil and Vietnam, regulations already exist to ensure that packaging for substitutes cannot claim to be “coffee.” We must continue to express why natural coffee remains superior for health and culture.

  • Price swings have been extreme. What is actually driving this volatility?

It is a matter of a “short blanket”—supply and demand. Severe weather events since 2021—frosts in Brazil, droughts in Vietnam and Africa, and typhoons—have lowered production while consumption is surging, particularly in the Middle East and Asia. We are currently working with AI experts to create models that can better predict these events to help us protect production in the short and long term.

  • Markets like the Middle East are now shaping their own identities. How does the ICO plan to engage with them?

The Middle East is a driver of the industry. Saudi Arabia became an official member of the ICO six months ago, and I visited Riyadh recently to touch base with the situation there. I also heard incredible things about the “World of Coffee Dubai” event two weeks ago—people told me it was a truly “crazy” and amazing event. We need to be present in these markets, working as partners to improve communication and support these maturing consumer bases.

  • What role can consumer regions—including the Arab world—play in supporting producers beyond certifications?

The Arab world can play a strategic role as a “catalytic investor.” Beyond labels, their impact lies in investment, partnership, and system-building. They can help de-risk innovation and climate adaptation at the origin. By supporting logistics, research, and digital agriculture, they can help reshape how value and responsibility are shared across the sector.

  • If you could speak directly to the global sector in 2026, what would you say needs to change most urgently?

Vanusia Nogueira: What needs to change most urgently is how risk and value are distributed. Today, smallholders absorb most of the impact of price volatility and climate change. Coffee must be treated not just as a commodity, but as a global public good. If producers earn a prosperous income, the entire sector becomes resilient. That change cannot wait.

  • Editorial Highlights

“Coffee must be treated not just as a commodity, but as a global public good that supports livelihoods, ecosystems, and cultures.”

“Yemen is the cradle of Arabica; we must ensure that its historic coffee heritage survives the challenges of a changing climate.”

“The ‘World of Coffee Dubai’ was an amazing, high-energy event that proved the Arab world is now a central driver of the global coffee industry.”

“A living income is not just about prices—it is about productivity, healthcare, and education. Doubling prices is not enough if the foundation is missing.”

“We must be clear with consumers: natural coffee has scientifically proven health benefits that chemical substitutes simply cannot match.”

“The Arab world has the power to be a ‘catalytic investor,’ moving beyond labels to truly de-risk innovation at the origin.”