Tag: ICE inventories

Coffee Prices Fall on Forecasts for Dry Weather in Brazil

Posted on by Qahwa World
Author: Qahwa World
Source: Barchart (Rich Asplund)
Date: May 29, 2026

Coffee Prices Fall on Forecasts for Dry Weather in Brazil

Executive Summary:

  • July arabica coffee futures closed down 2.70% on dry weather forecasts for Brazil, allowing the harvest to resume after rain delays.
  • July robusta coffee fell 2.14% amid improved global supply outlook and rising Vietnam exports.
  • Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is projected to increase 12% to 71.4 million bags, with some forecasts as high as 75.9 million bags.
  • StoneX expects the 2026 global coffee surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years.
  • Vietnam coffee exports rose 15.8% in January-April 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.
  • ICE arabica inventories fell to a 3.25-month low of 440,785 bags, supporting prices.
  • El Niño risks and dry conditions in Vietnam remain supportive for prices, while the US dollar weakness added support.

Coffee prices retreated sharply on Thursday after updated weather forecasts called for dry conditions next week in Brazil’s coffee growing regions.

The dry weather will allow the coffee harvest to resume after being delayed this week by heavy rains. July arabica coffee futures closed down 2.70%, while July robusta coffee fell 2.14%.

Brazil Crop Outlook and Global Surplus

Coffee prices have trended lower over the past month, with arabica falling to a one and a half year low last Tuesday amid an improved global supply outlook.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest would increase 12% year on year to 71.4 million bags.

On March 19, Marex Group projected a record Brazilian crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags.

On March 12, StoneX raised its estimate to a record 75.3 million bags. StoneX also projected the 2026 global coffee surplus would expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the largest surplus in six years.

Vietnam Exports and Inventory Trends

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.

On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports in the first four months of 2026 rose 15.8% year on year to 810,000 metric tons.

Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to climb 6% to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags.

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past two months, which typically supports prices. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.25-month low of 440,785 bags on Thursday.

ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots on May 15, but recovered to a six week high of 3,968 lots last Friday.

Weather Risks and Other Factors

Global weather risks remain supportive for coffee prices. Excessive dryness in Vietnam is raising concerns about the robusta coffee crop.

Weather forecaster Vaisala said recent showers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands have been spotty, and more rain is needed to aid cherry growth.

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are also supportive for prices.

Coffee trader Commercial said El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, potentially hurting the 2026/27 crop.

NOAA estimates an 82% probability of El Niño between May and July, with a 67% chance of a Super El Niño.

Smaller exports from Brazil are supportive of coffee prices.

On May 12, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3% year on year to 2.76 million bags.

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies, increasing shipping rates, insurance, and fuel costs, which is bullish for prices.

USDA Production Forecasts

Indicator 2025/26 Forecast
World coffee production 178.848 million bags (+2.0% record)
Arabica production 95.515 million bags (-4.7%)
Robusta production 83.333 million bags (+10.9%)
Brazil production 63 million bags (-3.1%)
Vietnam production 30.8 million bags (+6.2%, 4-year high)
Ending stocks 20.148 million bags (-5.4%)

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service bi-annual report of December 18 projected world coffee production in 2025/26 would increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags.

Arabica production is expected to decrease 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to rise 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

The USDA also forecast Brazil’s coffee production to decline 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output would rise 6.2% to a four year high of 30.8 million bags.

Ending stocks are projected to fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why did coffee prices fall on Thursday?

Prices fell due to forecasts of dry weather in Brazil, allowing the coffee harvest to resume after being delayed by heavy rains.

2. How much did arabica and robusta drop?

July arabica fell 2.70%, and July robusta fell 2.14%.

3. What is the projected Brazilian coffee crop for 2026/27?

The Coffee Trading Academy projects 71.4 million bags, while Marex Group and StoneX project record crops above 75 million bags.

4. How much did Vietnam’s coffee exports increase?

Exports rose 15.8% in January-April 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.

5. What is the expected global coffee surplus for 2026?

StoneX projects a surplus of 10 million bags, the largest in six years.

6. How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

El Niño could delay rains in Brazil during the flowering season, potentially reducing the 2026/27 crop, which supports prices.

Qahwa World – Based on Barchart commodity bulletin by Rich Asplund.
Published: May 29, 2026

Coffee Prices Rise on Weather Concerns

Posted on by Qahwa World
Author: Qahwa World
Source: Barchart
Date: May 27, 2026

Coffee Prices Rise on Weather Concerns

Executive Summary:

  • July arabica coffee futures closed up 0.61 percent on Tuesday, while robusta gained 1.82 percent.
  • Dry and uneven rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands raised concerns about robusta cherry development.
  • El Niño could delay Brazil’s September-October rains, threatening the 2026/27 flowering season.
  • NOAA estimates 82% chance of El Niño from May to July, with 67% chance of a Super El Niño.
  • Vietnam coffee exports rose 15.8% in Jan-Apr 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.
  • ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low before recovering slightly to 3,968 lots.
  • Brazil’s April green coffee exports declined 1.3% to 2.76 million bags.

Coffee prices moved higher on Tuesday, reaching one week highs as weather risks in key producing countries raised concerns about future supply.

July arabica coffee futures closed up 0.61 percent, while July ICE robusta coffee futures gained 1.82 percent.

Robusta prices climbed sharply due to continued dry conditions in Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer.

According to weather forecaster Vaisala, recent rainfall in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s main coffee growing region, has been uneven. Additional rain is needed to support cherry development.

El Niño Risks in Brazil

Concerns over a possible El Niño weather pattern in Brazil also supported prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño could delay seasonal rains in Brazil during September and October, the critical flowering period for coffee trees, potentially affecting the country’s 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates an 82 percent probability that El Niño conditions will develop between May and July and continue through the end of the year, including a 67 percent chance of a Super El Niño.

Despite Tuesday’s gains, coffee prices have generally weakened over the past month as expectations for larger global supplies weighed on the market. Arabica futures fell to a one and a half year low last week following several optimistic crop forecasts for Brazil.

Supply Forecasts and Vietnam Exports

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest at 71.4 million bags, up 12 percent year on year.

Marex Group forecast a record crop of 75.9 million bags, while StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags. StoneX also projected the global coffee surplus could expand to 10 million bags in 2026, compared with 1.8 million bags in 2025.

Additional pressure on robusta prices has come from rising exports from Vietnam. On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports during January to April rose 15.8 percent year on year to 810,000 metric tons.

Full year exports for 2025 increased 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to rise 6 percent to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags, the highest level in four years.

Inventories and Other Factors

Indicator Value
July arabica close (Tuesday) Up 0.61% (KCN26)
July robusta close (Tuesday) Up 1.82% (RMN26)
Vietnam coffee exports (Jan-Apr 2026) 810,000 MT (+15.8% y/y)
ICE robusta inventories (May 22) 3,968 lots (6-week high)
ICE arabica inventories (Tuesday) 446,816 bags (3.25-month low)
Brazil April green coffee exports 2.76 million bags (-1.3% y/y)

ICE coffee inventories have generally declined over the past two months, offering some support to prices.

ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 before recovering slightly to 3,968 lots last Friday.

ICE arabica inventories dropped to a three and a quarter month low of 446,816 bags on Tuesday.

Brazilian export data also provided support. Cecafe reported on May 12 that Brazil’s April green coffee exports declined 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags.

Disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have increased shipping costs, insurance premiums, fertilizer expenses, and fuel prices, tightening global coffee supply chains.

Global Production Outlook

The International Coffee Organization reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3 percent year on year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projects global coffee production for 2025/26 will rise 2 percent to a record 178.848 million bags.

The report forecasts arabica production declining 4.7 percent to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production increases 10.9 percent to 83.333 million bags. FAS estimates Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production at 63 million bags, down 3.1 percent, while Vietnam’s output is expected to rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast to decline 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why did coffee prices rise on Tuesday?

Prices rose due to dry conditions in Vietnam threatening robusta cherry development and potential El Niño risks in Brazil that could delay flowering rains.

2. How much did robusta and arabica gain?

July robusta gained 1.82 percent, while July arabica rose 0.61 percent.

3. What is the El Niño risk for Brazil?

El Niño could delay September-October rains, the critical flowering period for coffee trees, potentially hurting the 2026/27 crop.

4. How much did Vietnam’s coffee exports increase?

Exports rose 15.8 percent in January-April 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.

5. What happened to ICE coffee inventories?

Robusta inventories recovered to 3,968 lots, while arabica inventories fell to a 3.25-month low of 446,816 bags.

6. What is the global production forecast for 2025/26?

USDA projects record production of 178.848 million bags, with arabica down 4.7% and robusta up 10.9%.

Qahwa World – Based on Barchart commodity data.
Published: May 27, 2026

Robusta Coffee Rallies on Vietnam Dry Weather

Posted on by Qahwa World
Author: Qahwa World
Source: Barchart (Rich Asplund)
Date: May 23, 2026

Robusta Coffee Rallies on Vietnam Dry Weather

Executive Summary:

  • July robusta coffee closed up 1.68 percent on Friday, while July arabica fell 0.38 percent.
  • Dry weather in Vietnam’s Central Highlands raised concerns about the robusta crop, with forecasters calling for more rain to aid cherry growth.
  • El Niño weather patterns may delay rains in Brazil during flowering season (September-October), potentially hurting the 2026/27 crop.
  • NOAA estimates an 82 percent chance of El Niño conditions between May and July, with a 67 percent chance of a Super El Niño.
  • ICE robusta inventories recovered to a 6 week high of 3,968 lots on Friday, while arabica inventories fell to a 3 month low.
  • Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags, supporting prices.
  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global coffee supplies, adding bullish pressure.

Coffee prices settled mixed on Friday, May 22, 2026. July robusta coffee futures closed up 1.68 percent, rising sharply amid dry weather in Vietnam that is raising concerns about the country’s robusta coffee crop. July arabica coffee futures closed down 0.38 percent.

Weather forecaster Vaisala reported that recent showers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s main growing region, have been spotty. More rain is needed to aid cherry growth. This supply concern helped drive robusta prices higher.

El Niño Risks and Brazil Crop Outlook

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are also supporting prices. Coffee trader Commercial said El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, potentially damaging the 2026/27 coffee crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82 percent probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year, with a 67 percent chance of a Super El Niño.

Despite these risks, larger Brazilian crop forecasts have weighed on arabica prices. On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest will increase 12 percent year on year to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group projected a record Brazilian crop of 75.9 million bags.

On March 12, StoneX raised its estimate to a record 75.3 million bags. StoneX also projected the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the largest surplus in six years.

Vietnam Exports and Inventory Trends

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first four months of 2026 rose 15.8 percent year on year to 810,000 metric tons.

Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to climb 6 percent to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past two months, which is supportive of coffee prices. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots last Friday but recovered to a six week high of 3,968 lots on Friday. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a three month low of 449,567 bags on Friday.

Key Market Data

Indicator Value
July robusta coffee close (May 22) Up 1.68%
July arabica coffee close (May 22) Down 0.38%
Vietnam coffee exports (Jan-Apr 2026) 810,000 MT (+15.8% y/y)
ICE robusta inventories (May 22) 3,968 lots (6 week high)
ICE arabica inventories (May 22) 449,567 bags (3 month low)
Brazil April green coffee exports 2.76 million bags (-1.3% y/y)
El Niño probability (NOAA) 82% between May-July, 67% Super El Niño

Other Market Factors

Smaller exports from Brazil are supportive of coffee prices. Last Tuesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has increased shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, raising costs for importers and roasters.

As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3 percent year on year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA Foreign Agriculture Service bi-annual report of December 18 projected world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase 2.0 percent year on year to a record 178.848 million bags, with a 4.7 percent decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a 10.9 percent increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags.

The USDA forecast Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will decline 3.1 percent to 63 million bags and Vietnam’s output will rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to fall 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why did robusta coffee prices rally on Friday?

Robusta rallied on dry weather concerns in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, where spotty rains raised worries about cherry development.

2. What is the El Niño risk for Brazil coffee?

El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, the typical flowering period, potentially hurting the 2026/27 coffee crop.

3. How much did Vietnam’s coffee exports increase?

Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 15.8 percent in the first four months of 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.

4. What happened to ICE coffee inventories?

Robusta inventories recovered to a six week high of 3,968 lots, while arabica inventories fell to a three month low of 449,567 bags.

5. How did Brazil’s April coffee exports perform?

Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags.

6. What is the global coffee production forecast for 2025/26?

The USDA projects record world production of 178.848 million bags, with arabica down 4.7 percent and robusta up 10.9 percent.

Qahwa World – Based on Barchart commodity bulletin by Rich Asplund.
Published: May 23, 2026

Coffee Prices Fall on Improved Brazil Crop Prospects

Posted on by Qahwa World
Author: Qahwa World
Source: Barchart
Date: May 20, 2026
Executive Summary:

  • July arabica coffee closed down 0.68% on Wednesday, while July robusta fell 0.51% to a one month low.
  • Arabica hit a one and a half year low on Tuesday amid an improved global supply outlook.
  • The Coffee Trading Academy projects Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest will increase 12% year on year to 71.4 million bags.
  • Marex Group and StoneX both forecast record Brazilian crops above 75 million bags for 2026/27.
  • StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, the largest in six years.
  • Vietnam coffee exports rose 15.8% in the first four months of 2026, reaching 810,000 metric tons.
  • ICE robusta inventories hit a two year low last Friday but recovered slightly on Wednesday.

Coffee prices settled lower on Wednesday, May 20, 2026, with robusta falling to a one month low. Expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop continue to weigh on prices. July arabica coffee futures closed down 0.68%, and July ICE robusta coffee closed down 0.51%.

Prices have ratcheted lower over the past month, with arabica falling to a one and a half year near term low on Tuesday amid an improved global supply outlook. On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest would increase 12 percent year on year to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group projected a record Brazilian crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags. On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags. StoneX also projected the 2026 global coffee surplus would expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the largest surplus in six years.

Vietnam Exports and ICE Inventories

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports in the first four months of 2026 rose 15.8 percent year on year to 810,000 metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to climb 6 percent to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags.

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past two months, which typically supports prices. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots last Friday, though they recovered to a two and a half week high of 3,845 lots on Wednesday. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a two and three quarter month low of 456,462 bags on Wednesday.

Brazil Exports and Supply Disruptions

Smaller exports from Brazil are supportive of coffee prices. Last Tuesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by increasing shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer and fuel costs, raising costs for importers and roasters.

As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3 percent year on year to 138.658 million bags.

USDA Production Forecasts

Indicator 2025/26 Forecast
World coffee production 178.848 million bags (+2.0% y/y record)
Arabica production 95.515 million bags (-4.7% y/y)
Robusta production 83.333 million bags (+10.9% y/y)
Brazil production 63 million bags (-3.1% y/y)
Vietnam production 30.8 million bags (+6.2% y/y, 4 year high)
Ending stocks 20.148 million bags (-5.4% y/y)

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service bi-annual report of December 18 projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 would increase 2.0 percent year on year to a record 178.848 million bags. Within that total, arabica production is expected to decrease 4.7 percent to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to rise 10.9 percent to 83.333 million bags. The USDA also forecast Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production would decline 3.1 percent to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output would rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to fall 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why are coffee prices falling?

Coffee prices are under pressure mainly due to expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop for 2026/27 and surging exports from Vietnam, pointing to a global surplus.

2. How low did arabica coffee prices go?

July arabica coffee futures fell to a one and a half year low on May 19, 2026, closing down 0.68% on May 20.

3. What is the projected Brazilian coffee crop for 2026/27?

The Coffee Trading Academy projects 71.4 million bags, while Marex Group and StoneX project record crops above 75 million bags.

4. How much did Vietnam’s coffee exports increase?

Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 15.8 percent in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period last year, reaching 810,000 metric tons.

5. What is the expected global coffee surplus for 2026?

StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, the largest surplus in six years.

6. How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect coffee prices?

The closure disrupts global coffee supplies by increasing shipping rates, insurance, and fuel costs, which is a bullish factor supporting prices.

Qahwa World – Based on Barchart commodity bulletin.
Published: May 20, 2026

Coffee Prices Decline as Expectations of Ample Brazilian Crop Weigh on Market

Posted on by Qahwa World
Author: Qahwa World
Source: Barchart (Rich Asplund)
Date: May 18, 2026 Coffee prices decline ample supplies is the main story as the market experiences significant changes.
Executive Summary:

  • July arabica coffee fell to a 1.5 year low on Monday, closing down 1.01 percent. July robusta posted a 4 week low, closing down 1.75 percent.
  • The Coffee Trading Academy projects Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest will increase 12 percent year on year to 71.4 million bags.
  • Marex Group and StoneX both forecast record Brazilian crops exceeding 75 million bags for 2026/27.
  • StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, the largest in six years.
  • Vietnam coffee exports rose 15.8 percent in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period last year.
  • ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low last Friday, while arabica inventories dropped to a 2.75 month low.
  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global coffee supplies, supporting prices.

Coffee prices extended their sharp losses from last Friday on May 18, 2026. July arabica coffee futures closed down 1.01 percent, reaching a one and a half year low. July robusta coffee fell 1.75 percent, hitting a four week low. The declines were driven largely by expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop and surging exports from Vietnam.

Market analysts are forecasting a record harvest in Brazil for the 2026/27 season. On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s crop would increase 12 percent year on year to 71.4 million bags. Earlier forecasts from Marex Group and StoneX were even higher. Marex projected a record 75.9 million bags, while StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags. StoneX also predicted that the global coffee surplus would expand from 1.8 million bags in 2025 to 10 million bags in 2026, the largest surplus in six years.

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, is also adding to supply pressure. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office, coffee exports in the first four months of 2026 rose 15.8 percent year on year to 810,000 metric tons. For the full year 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports jumped 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to climb 6 percent to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags.

Inventories and Supply Disruptions

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past two months, which typically supports prices. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots last Friday. ICE arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 2.75 month low of 462,777 bags on Monday. Despite these declines, the broader supply outlook remains bearish.

Meanwhile, smaller exports from Brazil are providing some support. On May 12, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags. Additionally, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies. The closure has increased shipping rates, insurance costs, fertilizer and fuel prices, raising costs for coffee importers and roasters. This factor remains bullish for prices.

Key Market Data

Indicator Value
July arabica coffee close (May 18) Down 1.01% to 1.5 year low
July robusta coffee close (May 18) Down 1.75% to 4 week low
Brazil 2026/27 crop forecast (Coffee Trading Academy) 71.4 million bags (+12% y/y)
Brazil 2026/27 crop forecast (Marex Group) 75.9 million bags (record)
Brazil 2026/27 crop forecast (StoneX) 75.3 million bags (record)
Projected 2026 global coffee surplus 10 million bags (largest in 6 years)
Vietnam coffee exports (Jan-Apr 2026) 810,000 MT (+15.8% y/y)
ICE robusta inventories (May 15) 3,631 lots (2 year low)
ICE arabica inventories (May 18) 462,777 bags (2.75 month low)

Global Export and Production Outlook

On November 7, the International Coffee Organization reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3 percent year on year to 138.658 million bags. This decline is a bearish factor for prices.

The USDA Foreign Agriculture Service released a bi-annual report on December 18 projecting that world coffee production in 2025/26 would increase 2.0 percent year on year to a record 178.848 million bags. Within that total, arabica production is expected to decrease 4.7 percent to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to rise 10.9 percent to 83.333 million bags. The USDA also forecast that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production would decline 3.1 percent to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output would rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to fall 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why are coffee prices falling?

Coffee prices are under pressure mainly due to expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop for 2026/27 and surging exports from Vietnam, which point to a global surplus.

2. How low did arabica coffee prices go?

July arabica coffee futures fell to a one and a half year low on May 18, 2026, closing down 1.01 percent.

3. What is the projected Brazilian coffee crop for 2026/27?

Forecasts vary, but the Coffee Trading Academy projects 71.4 million bags, while Marex Group and StoneX project record crops above 75 million bags.

4. How much did Vietnam’s coffee exports increase?

Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 15.8 percent in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period last year, reaching 810,000 metric tons.

5. What is the expected global coffee surplus for 2026?

StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, the largest surplus in six years.

6. How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect coffee prices?

The closure disrupts global coffee supplies by increasing shipping rates, insurance, and fuel costs, which is a bullish factor supporting prices.

Qahwa World – Based on market reports from Barchart by Rich Asplund.
Published: May 18, 2026

Coffee Prices Supported by Shrinking ICE Inventories as Supply Tightens

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – Dubai. This article reviews ICE coffee inventories and coffee prices projections for 2026.

Source: Industry reports and exchange data
Date: May 14, 2026

Executive Summary

  • July arabica coffee gained 0.21%, while July robusta rose 2.24% to a seven-week high
  • ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,642 lots
  • ICE arabica stocks dropped to a 2.5-month low of 471,831 bags
  • Brazil April green coffee exports declined 1.3% year-over-year to 2.76 million bags
  • Vietnam January-April coffee exports surged 15.8% to 810,000 metric tons
  • Global coffee surplus projected to reach 10 million bags in 2026, largest in six years

Coffee futures settled higher in Wednesday trading as shrinking exchange inventories continued to provide market support, with robusta prices climbing to their highest level in nearly two months.

July arabica coffee on the New York exchange rose 0.60 points, or 0.21 percent, while July robusta coffee on the London exchange advanced 78 points, or 2.24 percent, reaching a seven-week peak.

Tightening stocks on the Intercontinental Exchange remained the primary bullish factor for the market. Robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,642 lots on Wednesday, while arabica stocks dropped to a two-and-a-half-month low of 471,831 bags earlier in the week.

Reduced shipments from Brazil also provided price support. The country’s April green coffee exports declined 1.3 percent compared to the same period last year, totaling 2.76 million bags, according to industry data.

Disruptions in key shipping routes have raised concerns over global coffee supply chains, contributing to higher costs for freight, insurance, fertilizers, and fuel for importers and roasters.

On the bearish side, rising shipments from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continued to weigh on the market. Vietnamese coffee exports during the first four months of 2026 increased 15.8 percent year-over-year to 810,000 metric tons. The country’s total coffee exports for 2025 also rose 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons.

Supply outlook: Vietnam coffee production for the 2025/2026 season is projected to increase 6 percent to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), which would mark a four-year high for the Southeast Asian producer.

Expectations of a larger Brazilian harvest are also placing downward pressure on prices. Recent projections indicate Brazil 2026/2027 coffee harvest could rise 12 percent year-over-year to 71.4 million bags.

Several trading firms have issued forecasts pointing to record production levels. A major commodities brokerage projected Brazil 2026/2027 crop at 75.9 million bags, while another trading firm raised its estimate to a record 75.3 million bags.

The global coffee surplus in 2026 could expand to 10 million bags, compared with 1.8 million bags in 2025, which would represent the largest surplus in six years, according to industry analysts.

Global coffee exports for the current October-September marketing year slipped 0.3 percent year-over-year to 138.66 million bags, based on data from the International Coffee Organization.

Looking further ahead, the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service projects that global coffee production in 2025/2026 will rise 2 percent year-over-year to a record 178.85 million bags. The agency forecasts arabica production to decline 4.7 percent to 95.52 million bags, while robusta production is expected to increase 10.9 percent to 83.33 million bags.

Brazil production for 2025/2026 is forecast to fall 3.1 percent to 63 million bags, while Vietnam output is projected to rise 6.2 percent to a four-year high of 30.8 million bags.

The USDA also expects ending stocks for the 2025/2026 season to decline 5.4 percent to 20.15 million bags, down from 21.31 million bags in the previous season.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did coffee prices rise recently?
Coffee prices moved higher primarily due to shrinking ICE inventories. Arabica stocks fell to a 2.5-month low, while robusta inventories dropped to a two-year low, tightening available supply.

How did Brazil coffee exports perform in April?
Brazil April green coffee exports declined 1.3 percent year-over-year to 2.76 million bags, providing some support to coffee prices.

What is happening with Vietnam coffee exports?
Vietnam coffee exports surged 15.8 percent in the first four months of 2026 to 810,000 metric tons, which has weighed on prices due to increased supply from the world largest robusta producer.

What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?
The global coffee surplus in 2026 could expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025, marking the largest surplus in six years.

What does the USDA forecast for global coffee production?
The USDA projects global coffee production will reach a record 178.85 million bags in 2025/2026, a 2 percent increase year-over-year, with robusta driving the growth.

How are Strait of Hormuz disruptions affecting coffee prices?
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns over global coffee supply chains, increasing shipping, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs for importers and roasters, which supports higher coffee prices.

Author: Qahwa World – Dubai
Source: Industry reports and exchange data
Date: May 14, 2026

 

Coffee Futures Rebound as Dollar Weakness Triggers Short Covering

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Coffee prices climbed back from one-and-a-half-week lows on Friday, ending the session in positive territory. The turnaround came as the U.S. dollar dropped to a two-week low, prompting traders to cover short positions in the coffee market. This price recovery was also influenced by coffee futures short covering as traders adjusted their positions. Notably, coffee futures short covering has played a key role in recent market movements.

July arabica coffee rose 0.85 cents (0.30%), while July robusta coffee gained 3 points (0.09%).

Early Losses on Brazil Crop Outlook

Prices initially moved lower on expectations of a larger harvest in Brazil. The Coffee Trading Academy projected Thursday that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop would rise 12% year-over-year to 71.4 million bags.

Just days earlier, arabica had touched a 1.75-month low following forecasts of a record Brazilian harvest. On March 19, Marex Group predicted a record 75.9 million bags for 2026/27, beating Sucafina’s estimate of 75.4 million bags (up 15.5% annually). StoneX also raised its production outlook for Brazil to an all-time high of 75.3 million bags on March 12, up from a prior forecast of 70.7 million bags. Additionally, StoneX expects the global coffee surplus to balloon from 1.8 million bags in 2025 to 10 million bags in 2026 — the widest surplus in six years. As a result, coffee futures short covering activity may increase amid these predictions.

Vietnamese Exports Weigh on Robusta

Soaring shipments from Vietnam, the world’s top robusta producer, are putting pressure on robusta prices. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported on April 3 that first-quarter 2026 coffee exports rose 14% year-over-year to 585,000 metric tons. For all of 2025, exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Moreover, Vietnam’s 2025/26 production is expected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

Supply Tightness Offers Support

On the bullish side, arabica supplies are showing signs of tightness. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a two-month low of 494,508 bags on Tuesday, contributing to coffee futures short covering by traders seeking to limit risk.

Similarly, robusta supplies are tightening — ICE robusta stocks dropped to a 16-month low of 3,755 lots last Tuesday.

Geopolitical and Export Factors

Ongoing concerns over a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz are also supporting prices. Such disruptions have raised shipping rates, insurance premiums, and costs for fertilizers, fuel, importers, and roasters. Therefore, it is evident that coffee futures short covering remains a significant factor in this volatile environment.

Brazilian export data further supports prices. Cecafe reported on April 14 that Brazil’s March green coffee exports fell 10% year-over-year to 2.65 million bags. Brazil’s Trade Ministry also noted on April 7 that March coffee exports dropped 31% from a year ago to 151,000 metric tons.

Bearish Reports and Forecasts

On the downside, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October–September) edged down 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected in its December 18 biannual report that world coffee production for 2025/26 would rise 2% to a record 178.848 million bags. That includes a 4.7% drop in arabica output (to 95.515 million bags) and a 10.9% increase in robusta production (to 83.333 million bags). The FAS also forecast Brazil’s 2025/26 crop falling 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output rises 6.2% to a four-year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are expected to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.

Coffee Prices Sink as Brazil Rainfall Outlook Improves

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Coffee futures faced a sharp retreat on Friday, with Arabica falling -13.25 (-3.85%) to a five-and-a-half-month low, and Robusta sliding -66 (-1.58%) to a three-and-a-half-week low. The primary downward pressure stems from weather forecasts predicting steady, beneficial rains over the next week in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s premier coffee-growing region.

The bearish sentiment is further reinforced by an ample supply outlook. Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, recently raised its 2025 production estimate to 56.54 million bags, a 2.4% increase from previous forecasts. Simultaneously, Vietnam—the world’s top Robusta producer—reported a 17.5% year-over-year surge in 2025 exports, reaching 1.58 MMT. Vietnam’s 2025/26 output is projected to climb another 6% to a four-year high, potentially reaching 10% growth if favorable weather holds.

Inventory recoveries at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have added to the price pressure. Arabica inventories rose to a two-and-a-half-month high of 461,829 bags in mid-January, while Robusta inventories hit a seven-week high of 4,609 lots last Friday.

However, some factors continue to provide underlying support. Cecafe reported that Brazil’s December green coffee exports dropped 18.4% to 2.86 million bags, with Robusta exports specifically plummeting 61%. Additionally, while rains are forecasted, recent data shows that Minas Gerais received only 53% of its historical average rainfall in mid-January.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26. While Arabica production may see a 4.7% dip, a significant 10.9% increase in Robusta output is expected to drive global totals to new heights, even as global ending stocks are forecasted to tighten slightly.

Brazilian Real Firming Lifts Arabica Coffee as Market Signals Remain Mixed

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March arabica coffee (KCH26) rose slightly by +0.15 (+0.04%) on Tuesday, while January ICE robusta (RMF26) slipped -15 (-0.34%), hitting a 1.5-week low. The day’s movements reflect a split market, with arabica gaining support from a stronger Brazilian real, now at a two-week high against the US dollar. The firmer currency is discouraging export sales from Brazil’s growers, helping arabica prices edge upward.

Robusta, however, is under pressure. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reported that around 10% of the country’s robusta harvest is now complete and forecasted that expected drier weather will accelerate harvesting through the month. Vietnam is the world’s largest robusta producer, and signs of increased output continue to weigh on prices.

Weather conditions in Brazil are offering some support to the market. Somar Meteorologia noted that Minas Gerais—Brazil’s main arabica-producing region—received only 20.4 mm of rain in the week ending November 28, equivalent to 39% of the historical average.

Coffee inventories monitored by ICE continue to tighten. US tariffs on coffee imports from Brazil triggered a sharp drawdown in stocks. ICE-certified arabica inventories reached a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20, while robusta inventories fell today to an 11-month low of 4,115 lots. American buyers have cancelled new Brazilian coffee contracts due to the tariffs, tightening domestic supply. US imports of Brazilian coffee from August to October fell 52% year-on-year to 983,970 bags.

On the policy side, the outlook for ample supply strengthened after the European Parliament approved a one-year delay to the European Union’s anti-deforestation law (EUDR). The postponement allows EU members to continue importing agricultural commodities—including coffee—from regions in Africa, Indonesia, and South America where deforestation remains a concern.

Several supply signals are weighing on the market. StoneX recently projected Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at 70.7 million bags, including 47.2 million bags of arabica, a 29% year-on-year increase. Vietnam’s supply outlook also remains heavy: its Jan–Oct exports rose 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 MMT, and 2025/26 production is expected to grow by 6% to 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags), a four-year high. Vicofa additionally suggested that Vietnam’s 2025/26 output could rise by 10% if favorable weather continues.

Some indicators continue to signal tightening global supply. The International Coffee Organization reported that global exports for the current Oct–Sep cycle slipped 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags. In Brazil, Conab cut its 2025 arabica estimate by 4.9% in September, lowering the projection to 35.2 million bags. Total Brazilian coffee output was trimmed to 55.2 million bags.

Longer-term forecasts from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service expect global production to rise 2.5% in 2025/26 to a record 178.68 million bags. The outlook includes a 1.7% decline in arabica output to 97.022 million bags, alongside a 7.9% increase in robusta to 81.658 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to rise 4.9% to 22.819 million bags.

Coffee Prices End the Week Higher as the Brazilian Real Strengthens

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March arabica coffee (KCH26) finished Friday’s session up by +1.50 (+0.40%), while January ICE robusta (RMF26) added +26 (+0.57%).

Coffee futures reached their highest levels in a week on Friday, supported by a stronger Brazilian real. As the real (^USDBRL) advanced to a one-week peak against the US dollar, Brazilian growers were less inclined to sell, prompting short covering in the market.

Weather concerns continue to contribute to upward pressure on prices. Arabica markets are receiving support from ongoing dryness in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais—Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region—recorded 26.4 mm of rainfall in the week ending November 21, representing just 49% of the long-term average. Robusta prices are also firm as forecasts predict heavy rains across Dak Lak in Vietnam, the country’s key coffee-growing province, which are expected to further postpone the current harvest.

Falling ICE coffee stockpiles remain a bullish factor. US tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports have sharply reduced inventories. Arabica stocks monitored by ICE dropped to 398,645 bags last Thursday, the lowest level in 1.75 years, while robusta inventories hit a 6.5-month low of 4,530 lots on Friday. American importers have canceled new orders from Brazil due to tariff pressures, tightening domestic supply. Between August and October—after the tariffs were introduced—US purchases of Brazilian coffee fell by 52% year-on-year to 983,970 bags. Roughly one-third of the coffee imported unroasted into the US typically originates from Brazil.

Last Friday, arabica futures slumped to a 7-week low after President Trump signed an executive order late Thursday removing tariff restrictions on Brazilian food goods, including the 40% levy previously applied to Brazilian coffee.

On the bearish side, StoneX projected last Wednesday that Brazil could produce 70.7 million bags of coffee in the 2026/27 marketing year, including 47.2 million bags of arabica—a 29% increase from the previous year.

Robusta markets also face pressure from expanding supply out of Vietnam. Data from the Vietnam National Statistics Office on November 6 showed that coffee exports for January–October 2025 rose by 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), reaching a four-year high. In addition, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) stated on October 24 that, provided weather conditions remain favorable, the country’s 2025/26 crop could exceed last year’s output by 10%. Vietnam remains the world’s largest producer of robusta.

Signs of tightening global supply continue to underpin prices. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the ongoing marketing year (October–September) slipped by 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.

Further support emerged after Brazil’s crop agency Conab reduced its 2025 arabica production estimate on September 4. The new estimate stands at 35.2 million bags, down 4.9% from the May forecast of 37.0 million bags. Conab also revised the country’s total 2025 coffee crop downward to 55.2 million bags, compared with the earlier estimate of 55.7 million bags.

According to the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) outlook released on June 25, global coffee production for 2025/26 is expected to rise by 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.68 million bags. The report anticipates arabica production will fall by 1.7% to 97.022 million bags, while robusta output will rise 7.9% to 81.658 million bags. FAS also forecasts Brazil’s 2025/26 crop increasing by 0.5% to 65 million bags and Vietnam’s output jumping 6.9% to 31 million bags, marking a four-year high. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to grow by 4.9% to 22.819 million bags, up from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25.

Falling Inventories and Trade Tensions Revive Momentum in Coffee Prices

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Coffee prices rose on Wednesday as shrinking ICE inventories and ongoing trade tensions between the United States and Brazil brought renewed momentum to the global coffee market.

December Arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed up +2.80 (+0.72%), while January Robusta coffee (RMF26) finished +145 (+3.25%) higher.

ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 446,475 bags, while Robusta stocks dropped to a 3.25-month low of 6,111 lots. This sharp decline follows the 50% tariffs imposed by the United States on imports of Brazilian coffee, prompting many American buyers to cancel new contracts. Brazil typically supplies about one-third of the U.S. unroasted coffee, tightening domestic supply.

Earlier this week, forecasts of rain in Brazil temporarily pressured prices. Meteorological agency Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais—the country’s largest Arabica-producing state—received only 0.3 mm of rainfall in the week ending October 24, or just 1% of the historical average. While upcoming rainfall could ease dry conditions, concerns remain about the impact on the critical flowering period for the 2026/27 crop.

Speculation is also mounting that the United States may lift tariffs on Brazilian coffee. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he had a “surprisingly good” meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, adding that a “definitive solution” on trade could be reached within days.

Last week, Arabica coffee prices hit an 8.5-month high amid fears that prolonged drought in Brazil’s growing regions could threaten the 2026/27 harvest. According to Bloomberg’s Brazil Weather Analysis, Minas Gerais has received only 70% of its average monthly rainfall over the past month.

Prices also gained support after the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) raised the probability of a La Niña weather pattern to 71% between October and December, a development that could intensify dry conditions across Brazil and further impact production.

Meanwhile, Robusta coffee faced pressure from an increase in Vietnamese supply. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports rose 10.9% year-on-year between January and September 2025 to 1.23 million metric tons. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) forecasts that 2025/26 coffee production could rise 10% if weather conditions remain favorable, reaching 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags) — a four-year high.

At the global level, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that world coffee exports for the current marketing year (October–August) increased 0.2% year-on-year to 127.92 million bags, indicating adequate global supply.

In Brazil, crop forecasting agency Conab revised its 2025 Arabica coffee crop estimate down by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags, while lowering its total coffee production estimate by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS), global coffee production for 2025/26 is projected to increase 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.68 million bags, with Arabica output expected to decline 1.7% to 97.02 million bags and Robusta production to rise 7.9% to 81.66 million bags. Brazil’s output is projected to increase 0.5% to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s could grow 6.9% to 31 million bags.

Global ending stocks are forecast to rise 4.9% to 22.82 million bags, compared with 21.75 million bags in 2024/25.

Tightening ICE Stocks Push Coffee Futures Higher

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Global coffee futures climbed as stocks registered on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) continued to shrink, tightening availability and pushing traders to reprice risk. December Arabica (KCZ25) rose about 1.78%, while November Robusta (RMX25) gained roughly 1.9%, reflecting increased buying interest across both contracts.

The market has been reacting to a notable decline in ICE-tracked inventories: Arabica holdings dropped to roughly 534,665 bags, a low not seen in about 18 months, and Robusta balances fell to near 6,237 lots, the lowest in a few months. A major contributor to tighter U.S. supplies has been new trade barriers: a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports has prompted some American buyers to cancel or delay contracts, and because Brazil supplies about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee, the effect has been pronounced.

Weather worries have compounded supply concerns. Key Arabica zones in Brazil — notably Minas Gerais — received barely measurable rainfall in early October, raising alarms about the crop’s flowering stage for 2026/27. Forecasters have also increased the odds of a La Niña episode through the October–December window, a pattern that can bring drier conditions to Brazil and add further downside pressure to yields.

Still, the global picture contains mixed signals. The International Coffee Organization reported a small year-on-year rise in exports for the current marketing window, pointing to continuing flows of coffee around the world. At the same time, Vietnam’s strong Robusta shipments — up double digits year-to-date — are helping keep robusta markets supplied.

Brazilian crop agencies and exporters have trimmed recent estimates or recorded export slowdowns: domestic forecasts for Arabica output have been revised lower and export volumes in some months have fallen sharply from year-earlier levels. Conversely, U.S. Department of Agriculture outlooks point to a modest increase in total world production for 2025/26, driven largely by a stronger Robusta harvest, while some trade houses continue to flag an Arabica shortfall.

The interplay of shrinking registered stocks, tariff-driven trade shifts and weather risks leaves prices vulnerable to swings — and keeps market attention trained on inventories, crop forecasts and buyer behavior in the coming weeks.