Le Quang Cuong (Nicky) of Vietnam Wins 2026 World Cup Tasters Championship

By Ali Al Zakary – Dubai | Source: World Coffee Championships Official Website | May 10, 2026 | 2 min read

Le Quang Cuong (Nicky) of Vietnam Wins 2026 World Cup Tasters Championship

Final rankings: Vietnam first, Switzerland second, United States third, Japan fourth

The World Coffee Championships have announced Le Quang Cuong (known as Nicky), representing Vietnam, as the 2026 World Cup Tasters Champion, following two days of relentless focus, split-second decisions, and world-class sensory skill.

Catherine Queiroz of Switzerland secured second place, Mehmet Sogan of the United States finished third, and Mizuki Tagami of Japan placed fourth.

The championship praised all competitors who took the stage, stating that the level of precision, composure, and passion on display was remarkable, and that they have raised the bar for the entire community.

The championship extended its thanks to its sponsors: Title Sponsor Porland, Qualified Water Sponsor Bluewater Globe, as well as Cosori, Kranti Coffee, Option O Coffee, Cold Perk, Nobletree Irhea, and Femobook Grinder.

Final Rankings – 2026 World Cup Tasters Championship

Rank Name Country
1 Le Quang Cuong (Nicky) Vietnam
2 Catherine Queiroz Switzerland
3 Mehmet Sogan United States
4 Mizuki Tagami Japan

Sponsors

  • Title Sponsor: Porland
  • Qualified Water Sponsor: Bluewater Globe
  • Cosori
  • Kranti Coffee
  • Option O Coffee
  • Cold Perk
  • Nobletree Irhea
  • Femobook Grinder

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Who won the 2026 World Cup Tasters Championship?
A: Le Quang Cuong (Nicky) representing Vietnam.

Q: What were the final rankings?
A: Vietnam first, Switzerland second, United States third, Japan fourth.

Q: How long did the competition last?
A: Two days.

Q: Who are the main sponsors?
A: Porland (Title Sponsor) and Bluewater Globe (Qualified Water Sponsor).


✍️ About the author: Ali Al Zakary – Journalist specializing in World Coffee Championships coverage and industry news.

Source: World Coffee Championships Official Website, May 2026.

Vietnam Suspends Decree 46, Easing Coffee Trade

Dubai – Qahwa World

Vietnam’s suspension of Decree 46, a new food safety regulation governing all imported food and ingredients, has brought temporary relief to the coffee industry after weeks of disruption to supply chains.

Introduced at the end of January, Decree 46 tightened how food imports are managed at Vietnam’s borders. It replaced a more flexible framework with stricter approval procedures, including additional certification, registration, and physical inspections before products could enter the market. For many import-reliant sectors, including coffee, the impact was immediate.

Coffee businesses were hit on multiple fronts. Shipments of high‑quality green coffee, roasted products, and key processing inputs began to slow as importers adjusted to the new documentation and inspection requirements. Clearance times that previously took only a few days stretched to several weeks, creating bottlenecks at major ports as containers waited for checks and approvals. For an industry built on tight delivery schedules and thin margins, these delays quickly translated into operational and financial pressure.

Vietnam plays a central role in global coffee flows, not only as the world’s largest robusta producer but also as a processing and re‑export hub. Coffee is imported into the country for blending and processing before being shipped back out to international markets. That system depends heavily on efficiency and predictability at the border. By imposing full food‑safety compliance procedures on a wide range of imports, Decree 46 disrupted both.

One of the most sensitive areas was raw materials imported for re‑export. Under the previous rules, such shipments often benefited from simplified procedures because they were not intended for domestic consumption. Decree 46 removed much of that flexibility, requiring full compliance even for goods destined for re‑export. This added time, cost, and administrative complexity for coffee traders who route beans and semi‑finished products through Vietnam as part of global supply chains.

The specialty coffee segment also felt the strain. Imports of premium green coffee, small‑batch roasted products, flavorings, and other inputs used in high‑value offerings faced additional testing and approval steps. Smaller businesses, which typically operate with lean inventories, reported immediate pressure as delays threatened their ability to meet contracts and serve customers on time. Packaging materials and additives used in roasting, processing, and manufacturing coffee products were similarly drawn into the stricter regime, forcing companies to contend with more extensive compliance demands across their operations.

Industry reaction was swift. Business associations and trade groups representing food and beverage importers warned that the abrupt shift had created serious bottlenecks, with large numbers of shipments held at ports and border gates. They raised concerns about rising storage costs, the risk of contractual penalties, and knock‑on effects on domestic production that depends on imported inputs, including those used in coffee manufacturing and export.

In response, the government moved to stabilize the situation. On 4 February, authorities suspended the effectiveness of Decree 46 and temporarily reinstated the previous regulatory framework. This decision effectively returned import procedures to the more familiar rules that had been in place before the decree, allowing stuck shipments to begin moving again and easing congestion at key ports. For coffee traders and processors, the suspension has provided short‑term relief and a chance to clear backlogs.

However, the issue is far from settled. Officials have framed the suspension as a temporary measure while they review implementation challenges and consider adjustments to the regulation. Trading partners and industry groups have called for clearer guidance, more transparency, and adequate transition periods before any new rules take effect. The government has indicated that tighter control over food imports remains a strategic goal, suggesting that some form of stricter regime will likely return once technical and procedural issues are addressed.

For the coffee sector, this pause is being treated as a preparation window rather than a return to business as usual. Companies are reassessing their documentation workflows, compliance systems, and supply chain structures in anticipation that more demanding requirements will come back in some form. Import‑dependent roasters and exporters are also exploring options to diversify logistics routes, adjust contract terms, or build greater buffer stocks to cope with potential future disruptions.

The recent experience has highlighted just how sensitive the coffee trade is to regulatory shifts at key origin and transit points. Delays at Vietnam’s ports can quickly cascade into late deliveries, contract disputes, and price volatility along the supply chain. While the suspension of Decree 46 has eased immediate pressure, it has also sent a clear message: the operating environment for food and coffee imports in Vietnam is changing, and adaptation will be essential to maintain a smooth flow of trade.

You can adjust this text by shortening the background on regulation if your audience already knows Decree 46, or by expanding the “industry reaction” and adding quotes if you have direct sources from coffee companies or associations.

Global Coffee Exports Surge Amid Asian Growth and Latin American Decline

LONDON – Qahwa World

The latest report from the International Coffee Organization reveals profound shifts in the global trade landscape, as total coffee exports across all forms surged to 12.62 million bags in January, marking a 13.7% increase compared to the same month last year. This growth was primarily driven by an exceptional performance in the Robusta sector, which successfully offset a significant contraction in shipments from major producers in South America, reflecting a fundamental change in the global supply structure.

Data highlights a dominant performance by the Asia & Oceania region, which achieved a 54.4% growth in exports. Vietnam led this surge with 3.99 million bags exported—a 73.3% annual increase—as the country accelerated shipments to clear inventories ahead of national holidays. Africa also maintained a strong presence with 14.2% growth, notably led by Ethiopia, which saw a 51.5% jump in shipments, confirming the recovery of supply chains and the continent’s ability to capture new market shares.

You may Read: ICO February 2026 Report: Has the Inflationary Wave Receded?

In contrast, South America faced a different reality, with exports declining by 21.3%. This downturn was directly impacted by a drop in shipments from Brazil and Colombia, ranging between 19% and 22%, following unfavorable localized weather conditions. This trend extended to Mexico and Central America, which recorded a 4.2% decrease, with Honduras suffering a sharp 28.7% drop in shipments due to logistical challenges and seasonal labor shortages still hindering the pace of exports in that region.

By category, Robusta exports grew by a staggering 49.1% to reach 5.25 million bags, accounting for a larger share of the global green bean trade at 48.4%. Furthermore, the data reveals a strategic shift toward value addition in origin countries, as exports of roasted coffee jumped by 25.2%. This indicates a growing desire among producers to move beyond raw material exports toward local manufacturing to maximize economic returns amidst the rapid changes in the global coffee sector.

ICO February 2026 Report: Has the Inflationary Wave Receded?

LONDON – Qahwa World

The latest monthly report issued by the International Coffee Organization for February 2026 has revealed a dramatic shift that could redefine the global coffee market dynamics for years to come. After a prolonged period of scarcity and record-high prices that strained both suppliers and consumers, the report announced a sharp decline in price indicators. This shift is driven by a “tsunami” of anticipated supplies from Brazil and Vietnam, officially placing the market on the verge of a historic surplus that ends a three-year cycle of consecutive deficits.

  • Price Earthquake

In February, the Organization’s Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 267.57 US cents/lb, representing a sharp 9.9% decrease compared to January. This decline is not merely a transient fluctuation but reflects massive selling pressure in global exchanges; the index opened the month at a peak of 289.47 cents and slid to 248.86 cents by month-end, the lowest level recorded since August 2025.

You may read: Global Coffee Market Roadmap—January 2026

None of the major categories were immune to this downward trend, with the Organization’s statistical analysis showing the following results:

  • Colombian Milds: Declined by 11.0% to settle at 330.89 cents.
  • Other Milds: Retracted by 11.7% to reach 321.35 cents.
  • Brazilian Naturals: Shrank by 10.2% to reach 308.62 cents.

Robustas: Proved most resilient, declining by only 6.6%. Experts attribute this to global roasters increasing the proportion of Robusta in their commercial blends as a strategic solution to reduce overall costs, creating sustainable demand that stabilized its price levels.

  • Brazilian and Vietnamese Winds

Organization analysts believe the fundamental reason behind this “price correction” lies in the optimistic forecasts from Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB), which raised expectations for the 2026/27 crop to 66.2 million bags, a massive 17.1% annual increase.

These forecasts were supported by a tangible improvement in weather conditions and regular, heavy rainfall in key growing regions such as Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, as well as improved outlooks in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. These factors prompted major international financial institutions to predict a global surplus of up to 8.64 million bags, leading large investment funds to liquidate long positions and pivot toward selling. This explains the 20.7% shrinkage in the arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets.

  • Global Trade Map

Regarding exports, January 2026 saw the shipment of 10.85 million bags of green beans, a 12.7% increase over January 2025. However, behind this headline figure lie geographical disparities reflecting specific regional logistical and production challenges:

Asia & Oceania: The region achieved a staggering 51.8% growth, with Vietnam alone exporting 3.99 million bags in January, capitalizing on accelerated shipping ahead of the Lunar New Year (Tet) holiday.

Africa: Continued its recovery with 14.2% growth. Ethiopia stood out as a strategic player with a 51.5% increase in shipments, while Uganda grew by 11.2%, reflecting a significant improvement in the continent’s internal supply chains.

South America: Recorded a surprising 21.3% decline. The biggest shock was in Colombia, where production plummeted by 34.1% due to unfavorable localized weather fluctuations, negatively impacting the flow of premium Colombian Milds to global markets.

Mexico & Central America: Registered a slight 4.2% decrease, with Honduras suffering a sharp 28.7% drop in exports due to seasonal labor shortages and logistical hurdles.

Read Also: ICO Releases Global Coffee Market Report – December 2025

  • Stocks and Processed Coffee

For the first time in months, the International Coffee Organization report indicates a slight improvement in certified stocks. New York (ICE) stocks rose by 11.4% to 0.52 million bags, while London stocks increased by 3.1% to 0.76 million bags. This rise provides a relative “safety cushion” against sudden climatic or political shocks.

A notable phenomenon in the report was the export of “Roasted Coffee,” which jumped by 25.2%. This indicates a strategic shift in origin countries toward local processing to add value to their products rather than relying solely on raw bean exports. Meanwhile, soluble coffee exports grew at a steady pace of 1.9%.

  • The Retail Paradox

The report highlighted a crucial point affecting the real economy: despite the collapse of raw coffee prices in global exchanges, retail prices in the United States jumped by 18.3% year-on-year in January 2026. This persistent inflation, totaling 47% cumulatively over five years, is mainly due to rising logistics, energy, and labor costs in consuming countries. Additionally, accumulating consumer debt is beginning to weigh on purchasing power, which may threaten the expected 1.7% growth in global consumption.

  • Future Outlook

We are entering a phase of total “reset” in coffee market balances. The market is currently moving to narrow the global deficit to just 0.4 million bags this season, paving the way for the anticipated historic surplus next year. For investors, roasters, and consumers, the February 2026 report serves as the “final whistle” for the era of frantic speculation and chronic shortages, signaling the start of a price stability phase led by Brazilian production abundance and Vietnamese logistical efficiency.

Coffee Prices Rise Amid Surging Shipping Costs

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee markets saw gains on Wednesday, with May arabica (KCK26) climbing +3.10 (+1.09%) and May robusta (RMK26) rising +29 (+1.78%).

Analysts attribute the rebound to supply-side concerns. The ongoing conflict in Iran has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global freight rates, insurance costs, and fuel expenses—factors that are expected to push costs higher for coffee importers and roasters.

Meanwhile, favorable weather in Brazil is supporting the country’s coffee crop but is acting as a bearish influence on prices. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-growing region, received 78 mm of rainfall in the week ending February 20, 131% of the historical average.

You may read: War Redraws Global Shipping Map and Pressures Coffee Supply Chains

Despite this, coffee prices had sharply declined over the past five weeks, with arabica hitting a 15-month low last Tuesday and robusta dropping to a 6.75-month low last Monday. Brazil’s crop forecasts show strong production ahead: the national agency Conab predicts 2026 coffee output will reach a record 66.2 million bags, up +17.2% year-on-year. Arabica production is expected at 44.1 million bags (+23.2% y/y), and robusta at 22.1 million bags (+6.3% y/y).

On a global scale, Rabobank projects coffee production in 2026/27 to hit 180 million bags, an increase of 8 million bags from the previous year.

Vietnam, the largest robusta producer, is also contributing to market pressure. January coffee exports surged +38.3% y/y to 198,000 metric tons, while total 2025 exports jumped +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Vietnam’s 2025/26 production is projected to reach 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags), a four-year high.

Inventory dynamics are mixed. ICE-monitored arabica stocks, which fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags on November 18, have rebounded to a four-and-three-quarter-month high of 528,028 bags. Robusta inventories also recovered to a 3.25-month high of 4,721 lots after hitting a 14-month low in December.

Brazilian exports, however, fell sharply in January, with 141,000 MT shipped (-42.4% y/y), while Colombia’s smaller output supports price levels. The National Federation of Coffee Growers reported that January arabica production fell -34% y/y to 893,000 bags.

The International Coffee Organization noted a slight global export decline for the marketing year (Oct-Sep) of -0.3% y/y to 138.658 million bags. USDA forecasts for 2025/26 show total world coffee production rising +2.0% y/y to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica output is expected to fall -4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta climbs +10.9% to 83.333 million bags. Brazil’s production is projected at 63 million bags (-3.1%), and Vietnam’s at 30.8 million bags (+6.2%). Ending stocks are forecast to decline -5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

Global Coffee Prices Rise as Roasters Step In After Recent Slump

Global coffee prices moved higher for a second consecutive session as bargain buying emerged after recent six-month lows. While Brazil and Vietnam are expected to expand production, tightening exports and shifting inventories are keeping the market balanced.

DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

Global coffee markets extended gains for a second consecutive session on Friday, supported by renewed buying interest after prices recently fell to six-month lows.

March arabica futures (KCH26) closed up 0.40 cents (+0.13%), while March ICE robusta (RMH26) rose by $24 (+0.63%), with robusta touching a one-week high. The rebound follows a sharp two-week decline that pushed both contracts to six-month lows earlier in the week, encouraging roasters to rebuild inventories at more attractive price levels.

  • Domestic Market Remains Stable

While international prices moved higher, domestic coffee prices held steady at 96,400–97,700 VND per kilogram. The highest levels were recorded in Gia Lai and Dak Lak at 97,700 VND/kg, while Lam Dong posted the lowest at 96,400 VND/kg.

On the futures markets, London robusta contracts advanced across delivery months. The January 2026 contract rose by $24 to $3,859 per ton, and the November 2026 contract gained $46 to $3,584 per ton.

In New York, March 2026 arabica edged up 0.4 cents to 300.05 cents per pound, while the December 2026 contract climbed 0.85 cents to 286.40 cents per pound. Brazilian arabica futures showed mixed movement, with March down 4.6 cents to 384.0 cents per pound and May up 1.35 cents to 381.4 cents per pound.

  • Pressure from Expanding Supply

Despite the short-term recovery, coffee prices have faced sustained pressure from expectations of strong global supply.

Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, projected that Brazil’s 2026 coffee production will rise 17.2% year-on-year to a record 66.2 million bags, including a 23.2% increase in arabica output to 44.1 million bags and a 6.3% rise in robusta production to 22.1 million bags.

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Improved weather conditions have further eased supply concerns. According to Somar Meteorologia, Brazil’s key arabica-growing region of Minas Gerais received 72.6 mm of rainfall in the week ended February 6 — 113% of the historical average — reducing earlier drought worries.

Vietnam’s strong export performance has also weighed on robusta prices. The country’s National Statistics Office reported January coffee exports surged 38.3% year-on-year to 198,000 metric tons, while full-year 2025 exports rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to increase 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), marking a four-year high.

  • Inventory Recovery Adds Headwinds

The rebound in ICE-monitored inventories has also added downward pressure. Arabica stocks, after falling to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags in November, recovered to a 3.25-month high of 461,829 bags in early January. Robusta inventories similarly rebounded from a 13-month low in December to a two-month high by late January.

  • Supportive Factors Remain

On the supportive side, Brazil’s January coffee exports dropped 42.4% year-on-year to 141,000 metric tons, tightening short-term supply availability.

In Colombia, the world’s second-largest arabica producer, January coffee production fell 34% year-on-year to 893,000 bags, according to the National Federation of Coffee Growers.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports for the current October–September marketing year declined 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags, pointing to tighter trade flows.

Meanwhile, the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase 2.0% year-on-year to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica output is expected to fall 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to rise 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. FAS estimates 2025/26 ending stocks will decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.

  • Market Outlook

The market remains caught between short-term demand recovery and longer-term supply expansion. While bargain buying has lifted prices in recent sessions, forecasts for larger crops in Brazil and Vietnam continue to cap upside momentum.

Coffee Prices Rise as Brazilian Real Strength Sparks Short Covering

DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

Coffee futures climbed sharply on Thursday following a surge in the Brazilian real, which encouraged traders to cover short positions. March arabica contracts closed up 1.65%, while March robusta contracts rose 2.02%.

The real reached its highest level against the U.S. dollar in nearly two years, prompting caution among Brazilian coffee exporters and contributing to the price gains.

Over the past two weeks, coffee prices had been under pressure. Arabica and robusta recently hit six-month lows amid expectations of a strong Brazilian crop. According to Brazil’s crop agency Conab, total coffee production in 2026 is projected to reach 66.2 million bags, up 17.2% from 2025. Arabica output is expected to increase 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to grow 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.

Rainfall in Brazil has also improved crop prospects. Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-growing region, received 72.6 mm of rain during the week ending February 6, exceeding the historical average. This eased earlier concerns over dry conditions that had pressured prices.

Vietnam’s coffee exports, particularly robusta, are increasing, exerting downward pressure on prices. January exports rose 38.3% year-on-year to 198,000 metric tons, while total 2025 exports climbed 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected at 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), the highest in four years.

ICE coffee inventories have also recovered, limiting price gains. Arabica stocks, which fell to a 1.75-year low in November, rose to a three-month high by early January. Robusta inventories, previously at a 13-month low in December, similarly increased in January.

On the upside, Brazil’s coffee exports fell 42.4% year-on-year in January, reducing global supply pressure. Smaller production in Colombia, the second-largest arabica producer, also supported prices, with January output down 34% year-on-year.

Globally, the International Coffee Organization reported a slight decline (-0.3%) in exports for the current marketing year, signaling tighter supplies. Meanwhile, USDA forecasts indicate that total global coffee production in 2025/26 will reach a record 178.848 million bags, with arabica slightly down and robusta up. Brazil’s 2025/26 production is expected to decrease by 3.1%, while Vietnam’s output is projected to rise 6.2%, reaching a four-year high. Ending stocks are forecast to decline by 5.4%.

Brazil’s Canephora Coffee Cultivation Moves Beyond Traditional Regions

DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

Brazil’s production of canephora coffee—covering conilon and robusta varieties—is spreading into states that have historically focused little on these crops. The expansion is being fueled largely by firm prices and growing demand, according to industry representatives and official data.

While Brazil remains the world’s leading producer of arabica coffee, canephora output has gained momentum in recent years. Canephora beans, typically used in espresso blends and instant coffee, offer higher yields compared to arabica and have become increasingly attractive to growers. Brazil is currently the second-largest canephora producer globally and continues to narrow the gap with Vietnam, the leading producer.

Traditionally, the state of Espírito Santo has dominated Brazil’s canephora production, particularly conilon. However, data from Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) show that since 2020, other states—including Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais—have significantly increased their output.

  • Prices Encourage New Plantings

Strong international prices over the past year have encouraged farmers to plant canephora outside its traditional strongholds. Although prices have eased from last year’s highs, they remain above long-term averages, sustaining producer interest. Improvements in bean quality have also contributed to broader acceptance in both domestic and export markets.

Minas Gerais, best known as Brazil’s largest arabica producer, is projected to nearly double its canephora production between 2020 and 2026, reaching more than 600,000 60-kilogram bags, according to Conab forecasts.

  • Mato Grosso Eyes Productivity Gains

In Mato Grosso, a state better known for soybeans and corn, efforts are underway to boost canephora cultivation. Agronomists are drawing inspiration from neighboring Rondônia, a key robusta-producing state with higher average yields. Current productivity in Mato Grosso trails Rondônia’s levels, but local research and extension agencies are working to close the gap.

Conab estimates that Mato Grosso’s canephora production will approach 300,000 bags this year, nearly doubling compared with 2020 levels.

  • Ceará Explores New Opportunities

Further north, Ceará is evaluating the potential for both conilon and robusta Amazonica, a variety commonly cultivated in Rondônia. Although Ceará’s current production is modest and grouped with smaller producing states such as Acre and Pará in official statistics, combined output from these regions is projected to increase substantially by 2026.

Ceará’s proximity to ports and transport infrastructure is seen as an advantage for export-oriented growth. State officials anticipate an initial expansion of planted area in the coming years, with room for further development if market conditions remain favorable.

Overall, Brazil’s canephora sector is undergoing geographic diversification, supported by price incentives, productivity gains, and broader market demand.

Coffee Prices Drop Sharply Amid Record Global Supply Projections

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee market prices ended Friday’s sessions with a significant decline, as March Arabica coffee contracts dropped by 3.84% to close at -11.85, while March Robusta coffee fell by 1.75% to close at -67. This downward trend persisted throughout the week, with Arabica hitting a 6-month low and Robusta reaching its lowest level in nearly 6 months, pressured by reports confirming robust global supplies.

The Brazilian crop forecasting agency, Conab, reported that coffee production in Brazil for 2026 is expected to rise by 17.2%, reaching a record 66.2 million bags. This includes a projected 23.2% surge in Arabica production to 44.1 million bags and a 6.3% increase in Robusta to 22.1 million bags. In Vietnam, the world’s leading Robusta producer, exports in January jumped by 38.3%, adding further bearish pressure on prices, especially after 2025 exports had already risen by 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons.

Additionally, above-average rainfall in Brazil eased drought concerns. Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica-growing region, received 69.8 mm of rain in the week ending January 30, representing 117% of the historical average. Vietnam’s production for the 2025/2026 season is also projected to climb 6% to a 4-year high. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored inventories have begun to recover from previous lows; Arabica stocks rose from a nearly 2-year low to a 3-month high, and Robusta inventories showed a similar recovery.

Despite some supportive signals for prices, such as the Brazilian Trade Ministry reporting a 42.4% drop in January exports and the International Coffee Organization (ICO) noting a slight 0.3% dip in global shipments, the overall outlook remains focused on surplus. The USDA’s bi-annual report projects that world coffee production for 2025/2026 will increase by 2% to a record 178.8 million bags, with a significant 10.9% rise in Robusta output, even as total ending stocks are forecasted to decline by 5.4%.

Arabica Coffee Gains on Technical Support Amid Mixed Market Performance

Dubai – Qahwa WORLD

March Arabica coffee (KCH26) concluded Monday’s session with a gain of +1.00 (+0.30%), while March ICE Robusta coffee (RMH26) saw a notable decline, closing down -84 (-2.04%) at a four-week low. The market showed a mixed performance as substantial rainfall in Brazil improved yield prospects but pressured prices. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s premier Arabica region, received 69.8 mm of rain during the week ending January 30, representing 117% of the historical average.

Further weighing on the market, Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, recently increased its 2025 total coffee production forecast by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags. Meanwhile, Robusta prices faced significant headwinds from surging exports in Vietnam, the world’s top Robusta producer. Official statistics from January 5 indicated a +17.5% year-over-year jump in Vietnamese coffee exports to 1.58 MMT. Production for the 2025/26 cycle in Vietnam is projected to rise +6% to 1.76 MMT, a four-year high, with Vicofa suggesting a potential 10% increase if weather remains favorable.

The recovery of ICE-monitored inventories has also exerted downward pressure on prices. Arabica stocks climbed to a 3.25-month high of 461,829 bags in early January, recovering from a multi-year low recorded in November. Similarly, Robusta inventories reached a two-month high of 4,662 lots last Monday. On the supportive side, Cecafe reported an -18.4% decline in Brazil’s December green coffee exports, with Arabica shipments down -10% and Robusta exports falling sharply by -61%.

Globally, the International Coffee Organization noted a marginal -0.3% decrease in exports for the current marketing year. However, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service predicts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, a +2.0% increase. This forecast anticipates a -4.7% drop in Arabica output alongside a +10.9% surge in Robusta production. Ending stocks for the 2025/26 period are expected to decline by -5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

Vietnam Police Seize Tons of Fake Coffee Made from Soybeans

HANOI – Qahwa World

Security officials in Vietnam have initiated a criminal probe into a production facility found manufacturing fraudulent coffee using soybeans. The investigation follows a targeted raid in the Central Highlands province of Lam Dong earlier this week.

According to a statement from the Ministry of Public Security, the operation resulted in the seizure of 4.1 tons of counterfeit finished goods and 3 tons of unprocessed materials. The facility owner, Luong Viet Kiem, reportedly confessed to blending soybeans and chemical flavorings with actual coffee beans to distribute ground products throughout the domestic market.

Economic and Health Concerns
The discovery was triggered on Tuesday when police intercepted a truck transporting over 500 kilograms of undocumented ground coffee. This incident highlights a recurring issue in the region; local traders noted that while soybeans and corn are edible, the safety of these unregulated mixtures remains a significant concern for consumers.

The financial incentive for such fraud is clear. Currently, farmers in the Central Highlands sell coffee for approximately 100,500 dong ($3.86) per kg—nearly triple the cost of soybeans.

 

Coffee Prices Drop as Brazilian Real Weakens

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices fell sharply on Wednesday after the Brazilian real lost some of its recent gains, prompting traders to liquidate long positions in coffee futures.

March Arabica (KCH26) closed down 16.25 points (-4.42%).

March Robusta (RMH26) fell 130 points (-3.04%).

Earlier in the session, Arabica had climbed to a two-and-a-half-week high, while Robusta reached a one-and-three-quarter-month peak before giving up gains. The weaker real makes Brazilian coffee more competitive for export, adding pressure on futures prices.

  • Key Factors Driving the Market

Supporting Prices:

Brazilian coffee exports declined in December by 18.4%, totaling 2.86 million bags, with Arabica down 10% and Robusta down 61% year-on-year.

Below-average rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s main Arabica region, has raised concerns about supply, as the area received just 33.9 mm of rain last week—around half the historical average.

Pressuring Prices:

ICE coffee inventories have recovered after hitting multi-year lows, which weighs on prices.

Vietnam, the world’s top Robusta producer, saw its 2025 exports jump 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons, with production rising 6% year-on-year.

Global coffee supply forecasts show a modest increase in total production, with Arabica down and Robusta up, creating mixed signals for the market.

  • Market Outlook

Brazil’s 2025/26 production is projected to fall to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is expected to rise to 30.8 million bags—a four-year high. Ending stocks for the season are forecasted to decline to 20.148 million bags, down 5.4% from the previous year, keeping supply concerns on traders’ radar.