Ethiopia Coffee Revenue Tops 3 Billion

Posted on July 8, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Official government reports & Daily Coffee News analysis
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 8, 2026

Ethiopia Coffee Revenue Tops 3 Billion

Ethiopia earned 3.1 billion dollars from coffee exports in a single year.
This represents a 719.6% increase compared to 20 years ago.
The country ranks third globally and first in Africa for coffee exports.
One year’s income exceeded the total of the previous 17 years combined.
Rising global demand for organic coffee opens new opportunities for Ethiopia.
A comparison with Brazil reveals Ethiopia’s competitive edge in sustainable farming.
The analysis recommends increased technical and financial support for farmers.

Ethiopia announced a historic achievement in its coffee sector. Export revenues surpassed the 3 billion dollar mark. This reflects a strategic transformation in farming and marketing policies.

Annual revenues reached 3.1 billion dollars. This surpasses the total earned over the previous 17 years. That total stood at only 3.3 billion dollars.

Historical Numbers Confirm Accelerated Growth

Official data compared current performance with past periods. The results showed enormous revenue growth. For example, 20 years ago, revenues were only 366 million dollars. Today, they stand at 3.1 billion dollars.

In addition, the net increase over 20 years exceeded 2.6 billion dollars. This translates to a growth rate of 719.6%. In contrast, income more than doubled within the last 5 years alone.

**Ethiopian Coffee Export Revenue Comparison (in billions USD)**
Period	Revenue	Net Increase	Growth Rate
20 years ago	0.366	+2.634	719.6%
10 years ago	0.722	+2.278	315.5%
5 years ago	0.907	+2.093	230.7%
Current year	3.100	—	—

Strategic Opportunities Amid Brazil’s Crisis

Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, faces severe climate challenges. Production in Minas Gerais state has been heavily damaged. As a result, Brazil’s export capacity has declined.

In contrast, Ethiopia possesses unique natural advantages. It is the birthplace of Arabica coffee. Moreover, its farming relies on organic and forest-based systems. Therefore, it can fill the gap in European and Asian markets.

Organic Coffee and the Competitive Edge

Brazilian farmers are shifting to chemical fertilizers. They aim to quickly compensate for lost production. However, this reduces the quality of organic coffee.

Meanwhile, Ethiopian coffee remains natural and chemical-free. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s agroforestry system complies with new EU regulations. This strengthens its position in the global market. Consequently, the value of its exports continues to rise.

Required Steps to Maximize Gains

The report urged immediate action. First, increase productivity through technical support for farmers. Second, improve quality control to maintain global reputation. Third, provide affordable financing for sustainable agricultural projects.

In addition, leverage strong diplomatic ties with Asia. Especially China, which is a vast emerging market. Ultimately, this will enable Ethiopia to turn its origin advantage into true market dominance.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Ethiopia’s current coffee export value?Ethiopia’s coffee exports reached 3.1 billion dollars last year, setting a new record.

What was the export value 20 years ago?The value was only 366 million dollars, which means a massive growth of over 700%.

What is Ethiopia’s global ranking in coffee exports?Ethiopia ranks third globally after Brazil and Colombia, and first in Africa.

How does Ethiopia benefit from Brazil’s crisis?It can compensate for the global supply shortage, especially in Europe and Asia, thanks to the quality of its organic and natural beans.

What are the main challenges for the sector?The sector needs more farmer support, better infrastructure, and increased funding to meet new market requirements.

Is Ethiopian coffee completely organic?Yes, the vast majority is grown naturally on small farms or in forests, without any chemical inputs.

Coffee Is Under Threat: How Scientists Are Fighting to Save It from Extinction

Posted on July 1, 2026July 1, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Nature – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: July 1, 2026

Coffee Is Under Threat: How Scientists Are Fighting to Save It from Extinction

Key Takeaways:

Coffee is critically threatened by climate change, with arabica suffering or dying when temperatures rise just a few degrees.
Robusta requires massive amounts of water and its yields drop drastically in drought conditions.
Ethiopia, the homeland of arabica coffee, is preserving genetic diversity through conservation areas and living collections of over 12,000 plants.
Scientists are exploring wild coffee species such as C. liberica, C. excelsa, and C. stenophylla that are more climate-resilient.
C. stenophylla, a forgotten species from the 18th century, tastes remarkably similar to specialty arabica from Rwanda.
Chemical tricks like grinding frozen beans can improve extraction and reduce waste, allowing better flavor from less coffee.

“A mathematician is a machine for turning coffee into theorems”, a quote often attributed to the late Hungarian mathematician Paul Erdős. Coffee is one of the world’s favorite drinks and an essential stimulant for many researchers. But its future is uncertain. “Coffee is critically threatened by climate change,” says Kassahun Tesfaye, a plant geneticist at Addis Ababa University.

Nearly all the 10 million tonnes of coffee beans consumed annually around the world come from two plant species: the strong and often bitter robusta (Coffea canephora) and the more delicate-tasting arabica (Coffea arabica). Unfortunately, arabica suffers or dies when temperatures rise just a few degrees, and robusta requires massive amounts of water and its yields drop drastically in a drought. Researchers are racing to keep the world’s coffee drinkers awake – and preserve the livelihoods of the many lower-income-country farmers who grow the cash crop.

The Birthplace of Arabica and Genetic Diversity in Ethiopia

Ethiopians are proud of their country for being the homeland of arabica coffee. The Ethiopian government has been establishing conservation areas to preserve the natural genetic diversity of the species. It also grows more than 12,000 arabica plants in living collections at the Ethiopian Biodiversity Institute in Addis Ababa and at the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research in Jimma. The government is betting that these plants will provide the material for breeding – or genetically engineering – arabica cultivars with traits designed to withstand high temperatures and drought.

Wild Coffee Species: Liberica, Excelsa, and Stenophylla

As temperatures increase, arabica cultivation might need to move to increasingly higher terrain to stay cool, which will not be easy for owners of small coffee plantations. Another solution is to grow other species of coffee plant that can better withstand climate change. There are 134 known wild coffee species, and a few are being grown for their climate resilience, including C. liberica and C. excelsa.

Aaron Davis, a researcher at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, says “the success stories are always about changing the species” that farmers grow. In wet regions, that could mean switching from arabica to robusta, but in other places it could instead mean growing C. liberica, which tolerates higher temperatures than arabica does and does not require as much water.

Davis has also tried a “bonkers” coffee species, Coffea stenophylla, which was described by a Swedish botanist in West Africa in the 18th century and then largely forgotten by science. “It still freaks me out, because here we have a coffee which isn’t related to arabica, occurs in an extreme environment – and yet tastes like a very specific arabica from Rwanda.” The challenge, he says, will be to breed varieties of C. stenophylla that are productive and that farmers find easy to grow.

Species	Characteristics	Challenges
Arabica (Coffea arabica)	Delicate taste, most popular	Heat-sensitive, dies with slight temperature rise
Robusta (Coffea canephora)	Strong, bitter, heat-tolerant	High water demand, yields drop in drought
Liberica (Coffea liberica)	Heat-tolerant, tropical fruit flavors	Different taste, not for everyone
Excelsa (Coffea excelsa)	Climate-resilient, fruity and almondy notes	Rarely cultivated, not well known
Stenophylla (Coffea stenophylla)	Tastes like Rwanda arabica, tolerates harsh conditions	Low productivity, cultivation challenges

Chemistry Tricks: Grinding Frozen Beans and Improving Extraction

Some researchers are looking for ways to get more out of the shrinking arabica supply. Christopher Hendon, a materials scientist at the University of Oregon, says: “There’s a lot you can do at the consuming side.” Hendon and his collaborators have found that grinding coffee beans at below freezing temperatures results in smaller particles. However, counter-intuitively, they also found that finer grinds do not necessarily yield tastier brews. Smaller particles tend to aggregate through electrostatic forces, reducing the surface area exposed to water – and thus the amount of chemicals entering solution – but tweaks to the grinding techniques, such as starting with moist beans, can help reduce the clumping.

Somewhat surprisingly, coarser grinds can also release more of the good stuff into an espresso, but this happens only when beans are put under pressures as low as 7 atmospheres. (A typical coffee-house machine works at around 10 atmospheres.)

Chemistry: The Key to Coffee’s Future

Chemistry is also crucial to investigating alternative coffee plants and how to turn them into desirable products. Hendon says the science of coffee is still young, and researchers are working to develop reproducible and objective techniques. “Compositional measurement is a big challenge,” says Hendon, “and so is assigning a numerical value to flavor.” A typical cup of coffee might contain more than 2,000 organic compounds, and their concentrations vary greatly depending on how and where the plant is grown – and how the beans are roasted.

Tesfaye emphasizes that scientists, of all people, should care about coffee’s future, not just because science is good for coffee, but because coffee is good for science, too. “Many discoveries and knowledge are generated after having a cup of coffee.”

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee’s Future Under Climate Change

Q: Why is coffee threatened with extinction?

A: Due to climate change. Arabica is highly sensitive to rising temperatures, while robusta requires large amounts of water and suffers from drought.

Q: What are the proposed solutions to save coffee?

A: Solutions include preserving arabica genetic diversity, breeding heat and drought-resistant varieties, cultivating wild species like liberica, excelsa, and stenophylla, and improving grinding and extraction techniques.

Q: What is Coffea stenophylla?

A: A wild coffee species described in the 18th century and then largely forgotten. It tastes similar to specialty arabica from Rwanda and tolerates harsh environmental conditions.

Q: How can chemistry help address the coffee crisis?

A: Through improved grinding and extraction techniques, such as grinding frozen beans, to extract better flavor from less coffee, and developing objective methods to measure flavor.

Q: What is Ethiopia’s role in preserving coffee?

A: Ethiopia is the homeland of arabica coffee. The government is establishing conservation areas and living collections of over 12,000 plants to preserve genetic diversity.

Coffee faces an existential threat from climate change, but scientists around the world are working tirelessly to save it. From preserving genetic diversity in Ethiopia, to exploring resilient wild species, to improving grinding and extraction techniques, the future of coffee depends on scientific creativity and international collaboration. As one researcher said, “Many discoveries are generated after having a cup of coffee.” Let us work together to preserve this precious beverage for generations to come.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on an article in Nature.

Publication date: July 1, 2026

Coffee Farming in Vietnam Devours Half a Million Acres of Forest, Threatening Rare Species with Extinction

Posted on June 25, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Coffee Watch Report – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 25, 2026

Coffee Farming in Vietnam Devours Half a Million Acres of Forest, Threatening Rare Species with Extinction

Key Takeaways:

A new report from the nonprofit Coffee Watch reveals that coffee farming in Vietnam has cleared nearly half a million acres of forest since 1990.
The Central Highlands have lost their wild tigers and elephants, with the saola — the “Asian unicorn” — feared extinct.
Intensive irrigation is depleting groundwater, while chemical use is degrading soils, threatening the sustainability of production.
Coffee accounts for only 1% of global deforestation, while cattle accounts for 40% and soy and oil palm for 18%.
Experts call for agroforestry practices and reduced meat consumption to curb forest destruction.

A new report from the nonprofit organization Coffee Watch reveals that coffee farming in Vietnam’s Central Highlands has led to the clearing of nearly half a million acres of dense forest since 1990 – an area the size of Luxembourg. The region, once home to tigers, elephants, and monkeys, has lost most of its biodiversity, with wild tigers now completely gone and elephant populations at critical levels.

The findings come as Vietnam ranks as the world’s second-largest coffee producer after Brazil, and the leading producer of Robusta beans used in most instant coffee, accounting for roughly 40% of the global market. The report indicates that forest cover in the Central Highlands has shrunk by one-third, while coffee cultivation has expanded fourteenfold over a single generation.

Collapse of Biodiversity and the Disappearance of the ‘Asian Unicorn’

The report, which relied on satellite imagery and historical records, documents that provinces such as Dak Lak, Dak Nong, and Gia Lai have experienced widespread forest destruction. While deforestation rates have slowed in recent years, this is largely because little forest remains to clear. Evidence points to the extinction of wild tigers in the region, a sharp decline in elephant populations, and the likely extinction of the saola — a rare antelope known as the “Asian unicorn.”

Groundwater Depletion and Soil Degradation Threaten Coffee’s Future

Beyond forest destruction, the report reveals that intensive irrigation has lowered the region’s water table, forcing farmers to drill wells as deep as 150 feet. Heavy chemical use has depleted soils, placing farmers on a “nutrient treadmill” where they must apply ever more fertilizer and pesticide to maintain yields. The report concludes that the “production system is eroding the ecological foundations on which it depends.”

Increasing drought linked to climate change is already creating bean shortages, which contributed to record-high coffee prices last year. Scientists warn that half of the region’s coffee acreage could become unviable by mid-century, potentially driving further deforestation and higher prices.

Agricultural Commodity	Deforestation Share	Impact
Cattle (Beef)	40%	Largest driver of deforestation
Soy and Oil Palm	18%	Second-largest driver
Coffee	1%	Limited but real impact

Experts: “We Are Drinking the Earth with Every Cup”

Etelle Higonnet, founder and director of Coffee Watch, said: “Most people are good people; they’d never dream of going to Starbucks and ordering a latte plus a dead elephant. But that’s basically what we’re doing. We’re raping and poisoning the planet with every cup we drink.” She added: “If this system collapses, shock waves will be felt in every supermarket and every café.”

Higonnet called for increased pressure on major coffee buyers to green their supply chains, noting that about 20% of global coffee production is now grown through sustainable agroforestry practices that combine reforestation with production.

Coffee’s Impact Is Smaller Than Meat’s – But It’s Not Innocent

Despite the devastating impact of coffee farming in Vietnam, data shows that coffee accounts for only about 1% of global deforestation caused by agriculture. In contrast, cattle alone causes 40% of deforestation, while soy and oil palm contribute 18%. Pastures now cover an area twice the size of South America, while the United States uses about half its agricultural land to produce beef, which provides only 3% of its calories.

Environmental writer and analyst Michael Grunwald notes that drinking a cup of coffee every morning contributes to global warming roughly as much as driving a gasoline car 100 miles, while emphasizing that meat’s impact is far larger.

Calls for Agroforestry, Reduced Meat Consumption

The report urges adoption of more sustainable farming practices, such as agroforestry — growing coffee under tree shade — and developing new drought-resistant and climate-resilient coffee varieties, as Nestlé is currently doing. Environmental organizations also call on governments to encourage farmers to use less irrigation water and fertilizer, and to ban imports of coffee grown on recently deforested land.

Experts argue that the real lesson from the transformation of Vietnam’s Central Highlands is not that coffee is uniquely damaging, but that everything we consume causes environmental harm, and the true solution lies in reducing global meat consumption, especially in wealthy nations.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee’s Environmental Impact

Q: How much forest has been cleared for coffee farming in Vietnam?

A: Nearly half a million acres since 1990 – an area the size of Luxembourg.

Q: Which animals have been affected by deforestation in Vietnam?

A: Wild tigers have disappeared entirely, elephant populations have sharply declined, and the saola is feared extinct.

Q: Is coffee the leading cause of deforestation globally?

A: No. Cattle accounts for 40%, soy and oil palm for 18%, while coffee contributes only about 1%.

Q: What solutions are being proposed?

A: Agroforestry, improved farming efficiency, drought-resistant varieties, and banning imports of coffee from recently deforested land.

Q: How can consumers help?

A: By buying sustainably sourced coffee, reducing meat consumption, and supporting brands that adopt eco-friendly practices.

The Coffee Watch report highlights the hidden environmental cost of coffee, but it also underscores that the problem extends far beyond a single cup. It is about our entire consumption pattern and the urgent need to rethink our relationship with food, drink, and the land that produces them. Change begins with consumer awareness and the willingness of companies and governments to take responsibility for the planet.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on the Coffee Watch report and Michael Grunwald’s article in Canary Media (June 23, 2026).

Publication date: June 25, 2026

Climate Pressures Affect All Coffee Producers, But Their Adaptation Capacities Vary Shockingly

Posted on June 18, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: TechnoServe and ACT Coffee Programme (UNIDO) – June 2026 |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 18, 2026

Climate Pressures Affect All Coffee Producers, But Their Adaptation Capacities Vary Shockingly

Key Takeaways:

A new report from TechnoServe and the ACT Coffee Programme reveals that all ten leading coffee-producing countries face increasing climate stress, but their ability to adapt varies significantly.
Latin American countries and Indonesia are the most vulnerable to climate risks, while East African countries are less exposed but suffer from greater economic fragility.
The income gap is striking: Ugandan coffee farmers earn $610 per hectare, while their counterparts in Vietnam earn $4,885.
The report calls for strategic investments of $560 million annually over seven years, which could generate $2.1 billion in additional farm income and $2.6 billion in exports per year.
Thirteen global coffee companies have endorsed the report’s findings, signaling growing industry awareness of the need for climate action.

A new report from TechnoServe, in partnership with the ACT Coffee Programme of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), reveals that ten of the world’s leading coffee-producing countries face escalating climate pressures. However, the most striking finding is that these countries’ capacities to adapt to these pressures vary dramatically, creating deep economic gaps between coffee farmers around the world.

The report, titled “Benchmarking Coffee Production and Climate Risk,” builds on TechnoServe’s 2025 Regenerative Coffee Investment Case and provides a comprehensive view of how climate change is affecting the sector and what can be done to strengthen its resilience.

Methodology: Three Dimensions of Risk and Two Time Horizons

The report draws on global climate data, international risk indexes, and field data from TechnoServe programs. It evaluates the ten countries across three key dimensions: climate risk exposure (the intensity of changes in temperature and rainfall), climate sensitivity (the degree to which the production system is affected by these changes), and adaptive capacity (the readiness of farmers, governments, and the private sector to invest in adaptation solutions). The analysis was conducted under a moderate climate scenario (SSP2-4.5) and examined two time horizons: the near term (2020–2040) and the long term (2040–2060).

Country Differences: Latin America and Indonesia Most Vulnerable, East Africa Most Fragile

The results reveal significant variation in farmers’ ability to face climate challenges and the level of support available to them. Brazil, Peru, and Indonesia showed a high degree of risk exposure with relatively stronger adaptive capacity. Vietnam also scored high on adaptive capacity but was classified in the intermediate vulnerability category.

East African countries such as Ethiopia and Uganda showed lower overall risk exposure but weaker adaptive capacity, with smaller farms, lower yields, and limited support systems. The report noted that smallholder coffee revenue in Uganda is estimated at about $610 per hectare, compared to $4,885 in Vietnam and $4,731 in Brazil. This disparity reflects deep economic fragility in East Africa, despite relatively lower climate exposure.

Country	Risk Exposure	Sensitivity	Adaptive Capacity	Farm Income ($/ha)
Brazil	1.52	3.1	2.6	4,731
Indonesia	2.00	2.4	2.6	–
Peru	1.90	2.8	2.7	–
Vietnam	1.69	2.6	2.7	4,885
Ethiopia	1.28	2.1	2.1	–
Uganda	1.07	2.1	2.1	610

Source: TechnoServe report – Benchmarking Coffee Production and Climate Risk (2026). Scores range from 1 to 4 (1=Low, 4=High).

Types of Risks: Heat Stress, Heavy Rainfall, and Drought

The report identified Indonesia, Peru, Vietnam, and Brazil as facing the most acute challenges from rising temperatures exceeding suitable ranges for coffee cultivation. In these countries, lower elevation further amplifies the impact of heat stress and temperature variability. Indonesia, Peru, and Colombia face the highest risk of damage from excessive rainfall, which can lead to soil erosion, waterlogging, and the spread of pests and diseases.

In contrast, Brazil faces the greatest risk of thermal-water stress, where the combined effect of high temperatures and low rainfall increases drought risk. Specific regions in Kenya and Uganda are also expected to experience rainfall deficits.

Recommendations: Investing in Farms and Infrastructure Is the Solution

One of the report’s central conclusions is that improving farm profitability is among the most effective ways to strengthen resilience against climate risks. The report calls for directing capital across three interconnected categories:

Farmer training and technical assistance: To disseminate regenerative agriculture practices that address local thermal and water risks.
Farmer capital and financial products: To provide affordable financing for farmers to cover transition costs and bridge income gaps during renovation years.
Systemic and infrastructure gaps: Including disaster preparedness, research and development, market systems, and policy reforms.

The report estimates that an annual investment of approximately $560 million over seven years in regenerative agriculture could generate $2.1 billion in additional farm income and $2.6 billion in exports per year across several key coffee-producing countries.

Thirteen Coffee Companies Endorse Findings, But Funding Challenges Loom

According to TechnoServe, 13 coffee companies have endorsed the report’s findings, reflecting what the organization described as growing industry-wide recognition of the need for action. However, the report does not specify whether these companies provided financial support for the study, nor does it detail any climate-adaptation investments they may have made on behalf of coffee farmers.

The call for coordinated investment comes at a challenging time for agricultural development globally. Recent reductions in foreign-aid funding, including cuts affecting international development programs, have contributed to a widening funding gap across the coffee sector.

Experts: The Report Reflects a Daily Reality for Coffee Farmers

Paul Stewart, TechnoServe’s Global Coffee Director and one of the report’s lead authors, said: “The report reflects what TechnoServe teams around the world see every day. Climate change is already affecting the productivity and livelihoods of smallholder coffee farmers, yet many lack the tools they need to respond.”

Frequently Asked Questions About the Climate Risk Report

Q: Which ten countries are covered in the report?

A: Brazil, Indonesia, Peru, Vietnam, Kenya, Honduras, Colombia, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

Q: What are the three dimensions of risk assessment?

A: Climate risk exposure, climate sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

Q: Why are East African countries more fragile despite lower risk exposure?

A: Due to smaller farm sizes, lower yields, weaker support systems, and lower income per hectare, limiting farmers’ ability to invest in adaptation.

Q: What is the estimated investment needed according to the report?

A: Approximately $560 million annually over seven years.

The TechnoServe report confirms that climate challenges facing the coffee sector are not uniform, and that smart, data-driven investments can make a significant difference in the lives of millions of farmers and the sustainability of the global sector.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on the TechnoServe report “Benchmarking Coffee Production and Climate Risk” (June 2026), and the UNIDO ACT Coffee Programme.

Publication date: June 18, 2026

El Niño: What It Is and How It Affects Coffee

Posted on May 22, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – Climate Desk

Source: NOAA, WMO, ICO, StoneX, industry sources
Date: May 22, 2026

Executive Summary

There is a 96% probability that El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026‑2027.
Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region have already exceeded the +0.5°C El Niño threshold.
Vietnam and Indonesia face drought and higher temperatures, threatening Robusta yields.
Brazil may see irregular rainfall during critical flowering (August‑October 2026), reducing Arabica quality.
Colombia and Central America face mixed risks: excess rain (leaf rust) or drought.
Analysts expect higher coffee price volatility in 2027, with Robusta supply risks pushing futures higher.
Smallholder farmers in vulnerable regions could face income losses, food insecurity, and migration pressure.

As of mid‑May 2026, the tropical Pacific is showing unmistakable signs of a rapid transition toward El Niño conditions.

According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion released on May 14, there is an 82% probability that El Niño will emerge between May and July 2026, rising to a 96% chance that it will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026‑2027.

Scientists are closely monitoring whether this event could evolve into a Super El Niño, potentially rivaling the record‑strength episodes of 1982‑83, 1997‑98, or 2015‑16. With sea surface temperatures in key Niño regions already warming sharply, the stage is set for significant disruptions to global weather patterns — from devastating floods in South America to severe droughts across Southeast Asia and parts of East Africa.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño (Spanish for “The Little Boy” or “Christ Child”) is the warm phase of the El Niño‑Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Earth’s most influential climate variability pattern. Under normal conditions, strong easterly trade winds push warm surface water westward across the equatorial Pacific toward Indonesia, allowing cold, nutrient‑rich water to upwell off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. During El Niño, these trade winds weaken or reverse. Warm water spreads eastward, suppressing upwelling and altering atmospheric circulation patterns worldwide.

The counterpart, La Niña, brings cooler waters and opposite weather effects. ENSO events typically occur every 2‑7 years and last 9‑18 months.

Current Status – May 2026

The equatorial Pacific is currently in a transitional state following a weak La Niña. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region have risen rapidly, with recent weekly values exceeding the +0.5°C El Niño threshold.

Multiple international models, including those from NOAA, the ECMWF, and the WMO, show high confidence in El Niño development by mid‑to‑late 2026. While peak strength remains uncertain, some projections suggest anomalies could exceed +2.0°C, raising the possibility of a strong‑to‑very‑strong event.

Global Weather Impacts

El Niño redistributes heat and moisture across the planet:

South America (Peru, Ecuador, northern Brazil): Increased rainfall and flooding risks, potential damage to infrastructure and agriculture.
Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Australia: Significantly reduced rainfall, drought, higher wildfire risk, water shortages.
East Africa: Wetter‑than‑average conditions, increased flood and disease risks.
Southern United States: Wetter winters; Northern US and Canada often milder.
Global: Elevated average temperatures (El Niño typically adds ~0.1–0.3°C to global surface temperatures).

Impact on Global Coffee Production

Coffee is one of the most climate‑sensitive major commodities. With roughly 12.5 million farming families dependent on it worldwide, any major ENSO event sends ripples through prices, quality, and livelihoods. The 2026‑2027 El Niño is expected to affect both Arabica and Robusta differently across key origins.

1. Brazil – The World’s Largest Producer

Brazil faces a complex outlook. While the current 2026/27 harvest is projected to be strong, El Niño could disrupt the critical flowering period (August‑October 2026) through irregular rainfall or excessive heat. Historical patterns show El Niño often brings drier conditions to key Arabica regions in Minas Gerais and São Paulo, potentially reducing bean size, increasing defects, and lowering quality.

2. Vietnam and Indonesia – Robusta Heartlands

These two giants are highly vulnerable to El Niño‑induced drought and elevated temperatures. Reduced rainfall and prolonged dry seasons can stress Robusta trees, leading to smaller beans, lower yields, and higher production costs due to increased irrigation needs. The 2015‑16 El Niño caused notable declines in Robusta output in these regions.

3. Colombia, Central America, and East Africa

Colombia and Central America face mixed signals: potential for excessive rainfall in some areas (increasing fungal diseases like coffee leaf rust) or drought in others. Ethiopia and Kenya may see wetter conditions that boost yields in some highlands but heighten disease pressure and complicate harvesting.

Overall Market Outlook

Analysts anticipate higher price volatility in 2027 as the event peaks. While Brazil’s large crop may buffer total volume in the short term, quality concerns and Robusta supply risks could push Arabica and Robusta futures higher. The ICO and major traders are already factoring these risks into their forecasts.

Broader Economic and Humanitarian Implications

Price Spikes: Coffee futures have already shown sensitivity to El Niño headlines, with short covering observed.
Smallholder Farmers: Millions in vulnerable regions face income losses, food insecurity, and potential migration pressures.
Supply Chain: Roasters, traders, and consuming countries should prepare for tighter specialty‑grade supplies and elevated costs.
Compounding Factors: Persistent low stocks, high input costs (fertilizers, labor), and climate change amplify risks.

Recommendations and Preparedness

For Governments and International Organizations: Strengthen early warning systems, support farmers with drought‑resistant varieties, irrigation, shade management, and crop insurance. The WMO, FAO, and ICO should coordinate contingency planning.

For the Coffee Industry: Diversify sourcing strategies, invest in sustainable practices that build resilience, and monitor ENSO updates monthly.

For Consumers: Expect potential price increases in premium and everyday coffee blends throughout 2027. Supporting traceable, climate‑smart coffee can help mitigate long‑term risks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the probability that El Niño will persist through winter 2026/2027?

NOAA estimates a 96% probability that El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026‑2027.

Which coffee origins are most at risk from this El Niño?

Vietnam and Indonesia (Robusta) face drought; Brazil (Arabica) may see irregular flowering; Colombia and Central America face mixed flood/drought risks.

How could El Niño affect coffee prices?

Analysts expect higher price volatility in 2027. Robusta supply risks could push futures higher, and specialty‑grade supplies may tighten.

What can smallholder farmers do to prepare?

Governments and organizations should provide drought‑resistant varieties, irrigation support, shade management, and crop insurance.

How does this El Niño compare to past events?

Models suggest it could become a strong‑to‑very‑strong event, potentially rivaling 1982‑83, 1997‑98, or 2015‑16, but final strength remains uncertain.

What are the broader economic risks beyond coffee?

Smallholder farmers face income losses and food insecurity; supply chains face tighter supplies and elevated costs; migration pressures may increase.

Author: Qahwa World – Climate Desk | Source: NOAA, WMO, ICO, StoneX, industry sources | Date: May 22, 2026

ICC 2026 Trieste to Focus on Climate, Consumers and Coffee Circularity

Posted on April 28, 2026April 28, 2026 by Qahwa World

Trieste, Italy – Qahwa World

The International Coffee Convention (ICC) 2026 will be held in Trieste this October, bringing together scientists, industry leaders and policy experts to address some of the most pressing challenges facing the global coffee sector.

Under the theme Coffee at the Crossroads: Climate, Consumers and Circularity, the event will examine how coffee production and trade are adapting to climate change, shifting consumer demand and the growing push toward circular and sustainable systems.

The ICC has positioned itself as a unique international forum that connects applied scientific research with real-world decision making across the coffee value chain. Unlike traditional trade fairs or academic conferences, the convention is designed to translate research into practical insight for industry professionals.

Previous editions were held in Mannheim in 2023 and 2024, where the format gained recognition for combining interdisciplinary science with industry-focused discussion. The 2026 edition continues this model with a programme structured around six key tracks.

These cover climate and agriculture, sustainability and processing, market and consumer trends, technology and innovation, ethics and social equity, and trade and regulation. Topics include climate resilience in coffee farming, circular economy approaches in processing, digital transformation, supply chain transparency, and evolving regulatory frameworks in major coffee markets.

The convention brings together a wide range of expertise, including agronomists, economists, geneticists, sensory scientists and behavioural researchers, alongside producers, traders, roasters and technology providers. Organisers say this mix is intended to strengthen collaboration between research and industry practice.

ICC 2026 will also open a call for papers, inviting contributions that combine scientific rigor with practical relevance. Submissions are expected to address challenges and opportunities across the coffee sector, from cultivation and processing to technology, sustainability and trade.

The two day event focuses on concentrated dialogue, applied insight and professional networking, with an emphasis on connecting science and industry in a way that supports real decision making.

Previous ICC proceedings and conference materials remain publicly accessible, offering insights into the research and discussions from earlier editions.

Global Roadmap to Accelerate the Genetic Improvement of Robusta Coffee

Posted on April 25, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

At a time when the global coffee sector stands at a historic crossroads, the journal Frontiers in Plant Science has published one of the most significant research papers of the last decade. It is not merely an academic study but a “rescue document” for the future of coffee. The paper, led by Dr. Robert Kawuki, a Robusta breeding expert at World Coffee Research (WCR), with the participation of 14 researchers representing eight international programs across three continents, outlines for the first time a clear technological path to accelerate the genetic improvement of Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora).

Robusta: From “Alternative” to Economic “Pillar”

The face of the global coffee market has changed dramatically. While Robusta represented only 25% of global production in the 1990s, its share has jumped today to exceed 40%. This rise was not accidental; it came in response to the resilience of this species and its ability to withstand higher temperatures compared to the sensitive “Arabica.” However, the study emphasizes that Robusta did not receive its due share of research and genetic development throughout the last century, leaving it operating far below its potential productive and qualitative capacities.

Anatomy of Obstacles: Why Have We Been Delayed for Decades?

The study identifies the “wounds” that hindered the crop’s development, as researchers pinpointed three main obstacles:

Fragmentation of Genetic Resources: National breeding programs have operated in isolated islands, with an almost total absence of exchange of genetic material and shared data.

Long Breeding Cycles: The process of developing and distributing a new variety to farmers takes more than 20 years. The research describes this duration as “catastrophic” given the accelerating pace of climate change, which alters the farming environment within a single generation of farmers.

Weak Technical Investment: Robusta has remained reliant on traditional selection methods, while other crops have made massive leaps using genomics and artificial intelligence.

The Roadmap: A New “Operating System” for the Industry

The most important conclusion of the paper is the necessity of transforming coffee breeding from “research projects” into a “shared global infrastructure.” The recommendations are summarized in core points:

Demand-Led Breeding: For the first time, there is an emphasis on designing coffee varieties based on “Product Profiles.” This means the researcher must consider the farmer’s needs (high yield and resistance) and the market’s needs (sensory quality) before beginning the hybridization process.

Genetic Acceleration Technologies: The paper calls for the immediate integration of Genomics-assisted selection and digital phenotyping tools. These tools allow for the evaluation of thousands of seedlings in record time and with extreme accuracy, reducing the variety development cycle by more than 50%.

The 3-Year Rule: The study revealed a stunning technical result: evaluating a tree’s productivity in its first three years provides an accurate indicator of over 80% of its long-term performance. This discovery alone will save breeding programs years of unnecessary waiting.

The 64% Alliance: A Global Transcontinental Force

What gives this research paper immense executive credibility is the participation of researchers from countries that control 64% of the world’s Robusta exports: Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, India, Uganda, Ghana, and Rwanda. These partners now form the backbone of the “Innovea” global network, which seeks to unify genetic breeding efforts to serve as the “infrastructure” serving coffee farmers worldwide.

Final Recommendations to Ensure Supply Sustainability

The research paper concludes with an urgent call to decision-makers in the coffee industry: Investing in Robusta improvement is not a luxury; it is “insurance” against potential climatic collapse. The study recommends:

Increasing Sustainable Funding: Moving away from short-term grants toward building investment funds that support long-term breeding programs.

Enhancing Access Pathways: There is no benefit in innovating excellent varieties if they do not reach the farmer quickly and at an affordable price.

Cross-Border Collaboration: Breaking down barriers of secrecy and exchanging genetic resources is the only way to face shared global threats like “leaf rust” and drought.

Conclusion:

The future of global coffee is now linked to the seriousness of implementing this “roadmap.” Robusta is not just a “cheaper alternative” to Arabica; it is the crop that will carry the burden of sustaining the global cup in the coming decades, and scientific research is the only weapon we have to make this cup resilient, profitable, and of high quality.

Global Coffee Leaders Launch First-Ever Deforestation Mapping Initiative

Posted on April 22, 2026April 22, 2026 by Qahwa World

Amsterdam – Qahwa World

Leading global coffee companies have launched a landmark industry initiative aimed at transforming how deforestation risks are identified and managed across coffee-producing regions worldwide, through a unified satellite-based mapping system.

The Coffee Canopy Partnership brings together major players in the global coffee value chain, including JDE Peet’s, Louis Dreyfus Company, Sucden, Neumann Kaffee Gruppe, Touton, Sucafina, and Tchibo, in an unprecedented pre-competitive collaboration designed to create the first comprehensive and openly accessible global map of coffee production landscapes.

Developed in partnership with Airbus, the initiative will use very high-resolution satellite imagery combined with artificial intelligence and ground verification to map coffee farms, detect forest loss, and distinguish between natural forests and agroforestry systems such as shade-grown coffee, which have historically been misclassified in land-use datasets.

The program is designed to address one of the sector’s most persistent structural challenges: the lack of reliable, harmonized geospatial data on coffee cultivation. This data gap has contributed to inconsistencies in sustainability monitoring and, in some cases, the unintended exclusion of smallholder farmers from regulated markets.

The initiative launches with a large-scale pilot across East Africa, covering Ethiopia, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda. The pilot will map approximately 1.2 million square kilometers of coffee-growing landscapes and serve as the foundation for a global rollout planned for 2027.

At the core of the project is the creation of two key geospatial datasets. The first will reconstruct a baseline of coffee cultivation for 2020–2021, correcting historical misclassifications of agricultural land as forest. The second will provide an updated view of coffee production landscapes for 2024–2025, enabling the detection of land-use change and potential deforestation over time.

The initiative comes as the industry prepares for stricter regulatory enforcement under the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which restricts market access for commodities linked to deforestation after December 2020. Industry participants warn that without accurate mapping, agroforestry-based coffee systems risk being incorrectly classified, potentially affecting millions of smallholder farmers.

Speaking at the launch, Laurent Sagarra of JDE Peet’s said the initiative represents a shift away from fragmented sustainability efforts toward a shared, landscape-level approach. He emphasized that the goal is not to create another certification scheme, but to build a collaborative infrastructure capable of reducing deforestation risk across the entire sector.

Airbus Defence and Space highlighted the role of satellite technology and artificial intelligence in enabling this transformation, noting that high-resolution Earth observation data can provide the transparency required to strengthen both environmental protection and supply chain resilience.

Supporting institutions, including the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, have endorsed the pilot phase. FAO representatives noted that the initiative aligns with broader efforts to promote transparent and inclusive data systems for sustainable commodity production.

Industry participants described the project as a shift toward shared infrastructure for sustainability, arguing that collective data systems can reduce duplication, improve consistency, and enable more effective decision-making across governments, producers, and traders.

If successfully scaled, the Coffee Canopy Partnership is expected to become a global reference system for monitoring coffee-related land use change, supporting deforestation-free supply chains while protecting the livelihoods of smallholder farmers and strengthening long-term climate resilience in coffee-producing regions.

EFICO Coffee Sourcing Strategy 2025 and Global Market Trends

Posted on April 20, 2026April 20, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

The coffee market has always been volatile, but in recent years fluctuations have intensified. While prices were historically shaped by harvest expectations, weather patterns, and supply–demand dynamics, financial market mechanisms, including speculative trading and algorithm-driven strategies are increasingly amplifying price swings, sometimes exceeding underlying supply fundamentals.

At the same time, climate change remains the most significant long-term challenge facing the sector. Across producing regions, erratic weather patterns—from prolonged droughts to unexpected rainfall and extreme storms—disrupt harvest cycles, reduce yields, and create growing uncertainty throughout the global coffee value chain.

In 2025, several of these pressures converged. Arabica prices surged on the New York C-Market amid drought-affected Brazilian crops and delayed harvests in parts of Central America. Logistical bottlenecks, geopolitical tensions, and lingering trade policies—including tariffs introduced under the Trump administration—added further complexity to the global trading environment. Meanwhile, regulatory developments in the European Union—notably the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and updated organic standards—introduced additional compliance requirements for actors across the coffee value chain.

Despite this challenging environment, EFICO achieved strategic growth in 2025, moving more coffee than ever while continuing to build on nearly a century of experience in connecting coffee value chain partners. Through strategic sourcing and transparent collaboration with partner farmers, cooperatives, exporters, and roasters, EFICO works to strengthen every link in the chain—helping partners navigate market volatility, regulatory complexity, and climate-related challenges.

EFICO | Connecting the coffee value chain

For nearly a century, EFICO has connected coffee value chain partners through long-term, trusted relationships that foster resilience and shared growth. Through its origin offices and green coffee trading teams, EFICO works closely with partner farmers, cooperatives, and exporters, providing market access, technical guidance, and sustainability support while maintaining lasting partnerships with partner roasters worldwide.

Complementing its operational sourcing work, the EFICO Foundation supports coffee-producing communities worldwide—structurally supporting coffee farmers and their families while positively impacting livelihoods, prosperity, and the environment.

Purpose-driven local partnerships

EFICO’s sourcing strategy is built on purpose-driven partnerships across the coffee value chain, starting at origin. By collaborating closely with cooperatives, local exporters, and trusted supply partners, EFICO works to ensure a transparent and resilient coffee supply while reinvesting value locally in coffee-producing regions.

In 2025, 85% of EFICO’s coffee continued to be sourced from local actors, reflecting the company’s long-standing commitment to locally rooted supply chains. Within this share, cooperatives represented 23% of total sourcing volumes, while local exporters accounted for 57%, showing a slight shift compared to 2024. International exporters remained stable at 15% for the third consecutive year.

These long-term partnerships support local economies, strengthen farming communities, and reinforce resilience throughout the broader coffee value chain—particularly in times of market volatility and environmental uncertainty.

EFICO’s sourcing offices in Ethiopia, Central America, and Brazil remain central to this strategy. Beyond operational hubs, they serve as centers of adaptive collaboration, connecting EFICO directly to coffee-growing regions. By working closely with partner farmers, cooperatives, and suppliers on the ground, these origin offices help partner farmers navigate fluctuating market conditions, climate challenges, and evolving regulatory requirements, while strengthening relationships with partner roasters worldwide.

Certified, verified vs non-verified coffee

In 2025, EFICO recorded remarkable growth in absolute terms, with certified volumes increasing by 34% compared to last year, while shares among Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, and Organic remained stable, reflecting continued commitment to certifications.

Rainforest Alliance held the largest share at 64%, also leading in absolute growth, while Fairtrade and Organic recorded the largest relative growth, recovering from the decline observed in 2024 as premiums increased and market prices remained high.

A shift in origins was observed, with a lower share of Organic and Fairtrade sourced from Central America in favour of Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

However, overall coffee sourcing volumes increased even faster than certified volumes. As a result, the relative share of certified and verified coffee represented 49% of total sourcing—marking the third consecutive year of modest relative decrease.

Despite this shift, EFICO’s sourcing remains above the global market average, as reported by the Global Coffee Platform in 2024, which registered 47% sustainable sourcing under third-party schemes.

These dynamics reflect broader market conditions. During periods of high and volatile coffee prices, certification models can become more complex for both producers and buyers, as certification costs and administrative requirements must be balanced against market opportunities.

Strategic sourcing: key origins

The world map provides a 2025 snapshot of coffee origins, showing the shares of certified, verified, and non-verified coffee. These patterns vary across EFICO’s key coffee-producing regions, reflecting differences in sourcing volumes, certifications, and partnerships.

For a more detailed view, EFICO analysed sourcing data from its major origins—Brazil, Central America, and Ethiopia—and included Uganda as a key Robusta origin without a permanent EFICO office.

Brazil

Brazil remained EFICO’s largest sourcing origin in 2025, accounting for approximately one-third of total sourcing volumes. The country continues to provide high-quality Arabica coffees that form an essential component of both blends and single-origin offerings.

In 2025, 47% of EFICO’s Brazilian sourcing was certified. An additional 17% was verified under EFICO’s internal sustainability standards, including 6% independently verified and 11% aligned with partner-based sustainability systems. This brings the total share meeting certification or verification criteria to 64%.

At the same time, 85% of Brazilian coffee volumes were sourced from local actors, reinforcing EFICO’s long-standing commitment to strong local partnerships.

While certified volumes increased in absolute terms, the relative share of certified coffee declined slightly as conventional volumes expanded more rapidly amid strong market demand.

Central America

Central America remained one of EFICO’s most important regions for certified sourcing in 2025. 66% of coffees sourced from the region were certified, with Rainforest Alliance representing the largest share and showing the strongest growth.

Fairtrade sourcing also showed steady growth during the year, while Organic-certified coffees declined both in absolute volumes and relative share.

This trend reflects a combination of market dynamics and regulatory developments: high and volatile coffee prices influenced producer and buyer decisions, while the increasing complexity of complying with updated EU organic requirements made sourcing fully compliant Organic coffees more challenging in some producing countries.

Across the region, 79% of EFICO’s sourcing came from local actors, reinforcing long-standing partnerships with cooperatives and exporters.

Through the ongoing work of the EFICO Foundation, EFICO supports projects that promote training and education, sustainable income, infrastructure support with the aim of positively impacting coffee farmers’ livelihoods, prosperity, and environment.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia experienced significant growth in sourcing volumes in 2025, with total volumes more than doubling compared to the previous year. While much of this increase occurred in conventional coffees, certified volumes also expanded.

In total, 21% of Ethiopian coffees sourced by EFICO were certified, with an additional 19% meeting EFICO’s internal sustainability standards, bringing the total share aligned with sustainability criteria to 40%.

Local partnerships remain central to EFICO’s sourcing approach in Ethiopia, with 80% of volumes sourced from local actors.

A key partner in this development is KURU, EFICO’s long-standing sourcing partner in Ethiopia, which expanded its operations to eight washing and collecting stations in 2025—four more than in 2024.

This expansion strengthens processing capacity and traceability while reinforcing EFICO’s direct connection to coffee-producing communities.

Uganda

Uganda is included in this 2025 analysis because sourcing volumes from the country have grown significantly, making it a strategic addition to EFICO’s Robusta portfolio.

Within just two years, Uganda has become EFICO’s third-most important origin for Robusta coffee, even though sourcing remains predominantly conventional.

79% of Ugandan volumes were sourced from local actors, highlighting EFICO’s commitment to building sustainable, locally rooted supply relationships, even in regions without a permanent origin office.

EUDR readiness & supplier engagement

In 2025, EFICO continued its efforts to ensure compliance with the EU Deforestation Regulation, despite the late announcement of another one-year delay in its entry into application.

By the end of the year, 93% of geolocation datasets submitted for EUDR contracts were approved according to EFICO’s strictest standards and assessments.

A major step was the launch of EFICO’s supplier portal, improving data collection, traceability, segregation at shipment level, and annual legality reporting, including topics such as human rights and traceability.

Togo field engagement

Togo was selected for focused engagement to support suppliers less familiar with geolocation and traceability requirements.

Since early 2024, EFICO has trained local field teams to collect, harmonise, and validate farmer and plot-level data. Over 2025, nearly 10,000 GPS points were collected.

A second field visit in December 2025 implemented ground truthing procedures to verify deforestation alerts and assess multi-tier supply chains.

Most coffee plots are managed under agroforestry systems. Satellite-based alerts initially identified potential deforestation risks, but field verification ruled out most cases, confirming only a few instances linked to expansion into previously forested land.

Non-compliant plots were segregated within EFICO’s traceability systems, while farmers received training on deforestation prevention and sustainable land-use alternatives.

Brazil’s Coffee Reality: When Climate Pressure Collides With Market Demand

Posted on April 17, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

This analysis is based on reporting first published by Dialogue Earth and written by Kevin Damasio. It has been adapted and republished by Qahwa World.

In the hills of Minas Gerais, where much of the world’s Arabica coffee is grown, a quiet transformation is underway. What was once a cycle of seasonal uncertainty has become a continuous struggle shaped by climate instability and shifting global demand.

This is no longer just a farming challenge. It is a defining moment for the future of coffee.

From Climate Variability to Climate Disruption

For generations, Brazilian coffee farmers adapted to occasional droughts, frosts, and irregular rains. Today, those events are no longer exceptions. They are part of a persistent pattern.

Longer dry periods, rising temperatures, and unpredictable rainfall are disrupting the biological rhythm of coffee itself. Flowering cycles are affected. Bean development becomes uneven. Yields lose consistency.

In regions like southern Minas Gerais, farmers are not asking if the weather will affect production. They are asking how severe the impact will be each year.

Scientific projections reinforce what farmers already experience on the ground. A significant share of Brazil’s Arabica-growing land faces the risk of becoming economically unviable in the coming decades if warming trends continue.

High Prices, Fragile Foundations

At the global level, coffee prices have surged as supply tightens. Brazil continues to generate record export revenues, even as shipment volumes fluctuate.

But this apparent strength hides a more fragile reality.

Higher prices are not translating into long-term security for producers. The cost of keeping coffee trees productive is rising. Irrigation systems, soil management, and climate-resistant varieties require investment. Losses from extreme weather events reduce financial resilience.

For many farmers, especially smallholders, the margin between survival and loss is narrowing.

The market is rewarding scarcity, but the conditions behind that scarcity are weakening the system that produces coffee.

The Retreat From Organic

One of the most telling shifts is happening in the field. Organic coffee production, once a growing segment, is under pressure.

Organic methods demand more labor, stricter management, and often higher costs. Under stable conditions, these systems can deliver value through quality and certification premiums. Under climate stress, they become harder to sustain.

As a result, some farmers are returning to conventional practices to secure more predictable yields. Even when they continue to limit chemical use, the shift reflects a deeper tension between sustainability and economic survival.

This raises an important question for the global coffee industry. Can sustainability commitments hold when producers face increasing climate risk and financial pressure?

Adaptation Becomes a Daily Practice

Across Minas Gerais, adaptation is no longer a long-term strategy. It is part of daily decision-making.

Farmers are replanting with more resilient Arabica varieties. They are improving soil cover to retain moisture. They are installing protective systems against hail and excessive sun.

Tree planting is gaining ground as a practical response. Shade reduces heat stress, stabilizes production, and creates microclimates that are more forgiving under extreme conditions.

Yet adaptation comes at a cost. Not every producer has equal access to credit, technical knowledge, or time to experiment. This creates a widening gap between those who can adjust and those who struggle to keep up.

Agroforestry and the Search for Balance

Among the emerging approaches, agroforestry stands out as both a return to coffee’s origins and a potential path forward.

By integrating trees, crops, and ecological processes, agroforestry systems aim to recreate the natural environment in which Arabica evolved. These systems can improve soil health, regulate water cycles, and reduce exposure to extreme weather.

Early results suggest strong potential in terms of resilience and quality. However, productivity gains are not always immediate, and management is more complex.

For many farmers, the question is not whether agroforestry works, but whether it is economically viable in the short term.

Without stronger institutional support, technical guidance, and market incentives, adoption is likely to remain limited.

A Changing Demand Landscape

While production faces mounting pressure, demand continues to expand.

Asia is becoming an increasingly influential force in global coffee consumption. Countries such as China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are reshaping how coffee is consumed, marketed, and valued.

For Brazilian producers and cooperatives, this shift offers new opportunities. It also introduces new expectations around volume, consistency, and price competitiveness.

This creates a delicate balance. Expanding into new markets may require scaling production, while climate realities are pushing toward more cautious and diversified farming systems.

The Future Is Being Rewritten in the Field

What is happening in Minas Gerais reflects a broader transformation across the global coffee sector.

Climate change is no longer a distant threat. It is actively redefining how coffee is grown. At the same time, market dynamics continue to evolve, creating both opportunity and pressure.

Farmers are responding with a mix of resilience, experimentation, and compromise. Some invest in new technologies. Others return to conventional methods. A few explore more complex ecological systems.

There is no single path forward.

What is clear is that the future of coffee will not be shaped by price alone. It will depend on how well the industry supports those at its foundation, the farmers who are adapting in real time to an increasingly uncertain environment.

For coffee, this is not just a moment of challenge. It is a moment of redefinition.

Rising Heat Threatens the Future of Coffee

Posted on April 3, 2026April 3, 2026 by Qahwa World

New York – Qahwa World

A new analysis by Climate Central (an independent group of scientists and communicators that studies and reports on climate change and its impacts on people’s lives, operating as a policy-neutral nonprofit) is raising a clear warning for the global coffee industry.

Data shows that coffee-growing regions across Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia are experiencing rising temperatures at an accelerated pace, faster than at any time in the modern agricultural era. An analysis of daily temperatures across coffee-producing areas reveals that plants are increasingly exposed to heat levels beyond their natural limits, placing significant pressure on yields, bean quality, and farm sustainability.

The findings indicate that extreme heat events exceeding critical thresholds for coffee plants are becoming more frequent in major producing countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. These conditions are negatively affecting both major types of coffee, including those known for higher quality and those considered more resilient, impacting both quantity and quality of production.

This trend is occurring alongside broader climate instability, including irregular rainfall patterns and longer periods of drought. Farmers are reporting noticeable disruptions in flowering seasons, faster development cycles, and sudden weather shifts that damage flowers and coffee cherries. These changes make it increasingly difficult to predict key production stages and raise the risks of lower yields and soil stress.

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The impact is not limited to farms. It is also affecting global markets, where reduced harvests have led to sharp price volatility. These conditions have contributed to elevated coffee prices in recent periods, driven by tighter supply and growing uncertainty in the market.

The analysis also points to a possible shift in coffee-growing geography, with production gradually moving toward higher elevations or areas previously considered unsuitable. While this may create new economic opportunities, it also poses environmental risks, particularly deforestation as farming expands into cooler and ecologically sensitive regions.

At the same time, experts stress the importance of adaptation. Proposed solutions include the use of shade trees, improving soil health, adjusting farming practices, and supporting smallholder farmers to strengthen their resilience to rising temperatures. There is also a strong emphasis on adopting long-term strategies rather than short-term fixes.

The message is clear. Coffee-growing regions around the world are entering a period of profound climate change. Adaptation is no longer optional. It is becoming a decisive factor in determining the future of coffee production and its sustainability in the years ahead.

Brazil’s Robusta Coffee Expands as Climate Hits Global Crops

Posted on March 18, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

A report published by The Guardian highlights how Brazil’s long-overlooked robusta coffee is gaining new importance as climate change disrupts traditional coffee cultivation worldwide.

In the Brazilian Amazon, the story of robusta is closely tied to the resilience of Indigenous communities. When the Paiter Suruí people regained control of their land in 1981 after expelling invaders, they faced a difficult choice: whether to keep the coffee plantations left behind. While some associated the crop with a painful past and chose to destroy it, others preserved the trees.

Decades later, those surviving plantations have become a source of livelihood and environmental stewardship. Today, coffee is not only an economic activity but also part of a broader effort to protect the forest.

You may read: Brazil Crop Expectations Pressure Global Coffee Prices

Celeste Paytxayeb Suruí, an Indigenous barista and producer, has become one of the leading voices promoting what is now known as “Amazonian robusta,” grown in Rondônia, in Brazil’s western Amazon. Around 140 Suruí families cultivate coffee on small plots within the Sete de Setembro Indigenous territory, where high temperatures and abundant rainfall provide ideal conditions for the crop—similar to its origins in Central Africa.

A Changing Role for Robusta

For decades, robusta coffee was widely viewed as inferior to arabica, often criticized for its bitterness and relegated to low-cost blends. However, as The Guardian reports, this perception is shifting.

Researchers and farmers are working to improve robusta’s quality, while its natural tolerance to heat is making it increasingly important in a warming world. Its share of global coffee production has risen significantly, reaching 44% in 2023 compared to 28% in the early 1990s.

Climate change is a key driver behind this shift. Rising temperatures are affecting all major coffee-producing regions, including Brazil, which now experiences significantly more extreme heat days each year.

You may also read: Brazil’s Specialty Coffee Sector Gains Global Momentum

Yet robusta is not immune. In 2024, drought conditions in Rondônia reduced production on Suruí lands by 40%, reflecting the crop’s dependence on rainfall. Similar weather events in Brazil and Vietnam contributed to sharp increases in global coffee prices.

Looking ahead, research suggests that the land suitable for growing coffee could shrink by at least half by 2050, affecting both arabica and robusta.

Science and Innovation

To address these challenges, Brazilian researchers have been working to develop more resilient coffee varieties. The country’s agricultural research body, Embrapa, has spent over two decades improving robusta, significantly increasing its productivity.

Read also: Coffee Prices Drop on Brazil Weather and Rising Stocks

Amazonian robusta itself is the result of natural crossings between conilon and robusta plants. Scientists are now testing dozens of new hybrids designed to withstand higher temperatures, resist drought, and deliver improved flavor.

Experts also emphasize the importance of proper harvesting and post-harvest techniques. Selecting ripe cherries and carefully processing them can dramatically enhance the final cup quality, helping reposition robusta in specialty markets.

Coffee and Forest Conservation

The report underscores the close relationship between coffee cultivation and forest ecosystems. Coffee plants benefit from shaded environments, stable temperatures, and natural pollinators—all of which forests provide.

Despite this, large areas of Rondônia were cleared in past decades for cattle ranching, leaving coffee to occupy only a small portion of the land. In contrast, the Suruí community has followed a different path, implementing a long-term environmental management plan since 2004 that prioritizes reforestation and sustainable land use.

A Model from Family Farms

The report also highlights the example of the Bento family near the city of Cacoal. On their 12-hectare farm, they manage the entire coffee process—from cultivation to roasting—and welcome visitors to learn about their methods.

Their approach includes water-efficient irrigation, tree planting to protect water sources, beekeeping to support pollination, and crop rotation to maintain soil health. These practices have earned them repeated sustainability awards and demonstrate how small-scale farming can remain both productive and environmentally responsible.

Read Also: Coffee Pulp in Brazil: When the Coffee Cherry Refuses to Be Waste

Balancing Opportunity and Risk

Rising coffee prices and growing demand for robusta present new opportunities, but also potential risks. Some experts warn that expansion could lead to large-scale monoculture plantations, increasing pressure on forests.

They stress that sustainable outcomes depend on careful planning, strong environmental policies, and support for small farmers. There are also calls for consumers to make more informed choices when purchasing coffee.

Redefining Taste and Value

Another challenge lies in changing how robusta is evaluated. Traditionally judged by standards developed for arabica, robusta has often been misunderstood.

Researchers are now developing new tasting frameworks tailored specifically to canephora coffees, recognizing that robusta has its own distinct flavor profile rather than being a lower-quality alternative.

A Broader Vision for the Amazon

Beyond coffee, scientists and advocates are calling for a broader shift toward valuing forest-based products such as Brazil nuts, açaí, cocoa, and cupuaçu. They argue that Indigenous knowledge—historically overlooked—should play a central role in shaping sustainable economic models.

As Paytxayeb Suruí emphasizes in The Guardian’s report, protecting the Amazon must also mean supporting the people who live within it.

Her message reflects a wider call for collective responsibility: safeguarding the future of coffee, and the forests that sustain it, will require coordinated action from producers, governments, and consumers alike.