Tag: Harvest

Indonesia coffee output falls for second year as heavy rain disrupts harvest

Posted on by Qahwa World
Dubai – Qahwa World

Indonesia’s coffee production is set to decline for a second consecutive year in 2025–26 as excessive rainfall disrupts key growing regions, although industry participants say cup quality has remained stable due to reduced pressure on processing. Experts are closely watching the Indonesia coffee harvest 2026 to assess its impact on supply and quality.

Arabica and Robusta volumes are both expected to fall from last year’s levels, with Sumatra among the most affected origins after flooding and landslides restricted access to producing areas and disrupted harvest flows, according to Sucafina Indonesia. In addition, stakeholders are keenly monitoring how the Indonesia coffee harvest 2026 may influence these changes.

In Sumatra, the Arabica harvest has shown an unusual seasonal pattern, with the first phase producing less than the later months, reversing typical output trends. Other origins, including Java, Sulawesi, Bali and Flores, are expected to follow normal harvesting schedules but continue to face weather-related disruptions. Furthermore, the Indonesia coffee harvest 2026 is expected to show diverse patterns across these regions.

Despite lower production, quality has been supported by improved post-harvest attention. For coffee traders, the Indonesia coffee harvest 2026 outcomes will be essential to forecast quality and supply for the next cycle.

“Quality has been very good so far. With less production, processing capacity is less strained and each batch can receive full attention,” said Daniel Shewmaker, Managing Director at Sucafina Indonesia. On another note, coffee experts continue to anticipate fresh details about the harvest for Indonesia in 2026.

Robusta harvesting is underway in Sumatra at lower and mid elevations, with other regions to follow in the coming months. Output is also expected to decline due to persistent rainfall, an unusually large fly crop and an earlier-than-usual start to the season. Heavy rains are also complicating drying conditions across key areas, which could affect the Indonesia harvest for coffee in 2026.

Shewmaker said frequent rainfall was creating challenges for post-harvest processing. Indonesian coffee harvest 2026 analysis will be vital for understanding these processing difficulties.

At the same time, input costs are expected to rise later in the year, particularly fertiliser prices, which are being affected by volatility in global energy markets and geopolitical tensions. Notably, these factors may converge during the Indonesia 2026 coffee harvest season.

Sucafina Indonesia said it has expanded direct sourcing in Aceh, northwest Sumatra, increasing access to traceable coffee lots as part of efforts to strengthen supply chain coverage. This expansion is linked to the company’s response to the anticipated Indonesia coffee harvest trends in 2026.

The company also highlighted ongoing sustainability initiatives in Java and other producing regions, including farmer income programmes, savings groups, composting projects and access to agricultural inputs. Indonesia’s coffee harvest for 2026 will serve as a benchmark for these initiatives.

Early indicators from Sumatra suggest improved flowering conditions earlier this year, which could support a stronger main Arabica harvest beginning in October 2026, the company said. Overall, the Indonesia coffee harvest 2026 is likely to be memorable for its challenges and opportunities.

 

Climate Crisis Threatens Global Coffee Production

Posted on by Qahwa World

DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

New analysis shows the world’s top five coffee-producing nations are experiencing dozens of additional high-heat days annually — putting global supply, prices, and farmer livelihoods at risk.

The global coffee industry is entering a critical phase as climate change intensifies across the tropical “coffee belt” between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. A recent analysis by Climate Central found that the five largest coffee-producing countries — responsible for 75% of global supply — have experienced an average of 57 additional days per year above 30°C between 2021 and 2025 due to climate change.

Temperatures above this threshold are particularly harmful to coffee trees, especially Arabica, the premium variety that dominates specialty markets.

  • Ethiopia: Coffee’s Birthplace Under Growing Pressure

In Ethiopia — widely recognized as the birthplace of coffee — more than four million households depend on coffee as their primary source of income. The sector contributes nearly one-third of the country’s export earnings.

Officials from the Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union report that rising heat is already affecting yields and increasing tree vulnerability to disease. Reduced shade cover and stronger direct sunlight are compounding the stress on farms.

  • El Salvador and Brazil Among the Hardest Hit

The analysis found that El Salvador recorded 99 additional days of coffee-damaging heat during the 2021–2025 period — the highest among major producers.

Meanwhile, Brazil — the world’s largest coffee producer, accounting for roughly 37% of global output — experienced 70 additional days above 30°C. Given Brazil’s dominant role in global supply, prolonged heat stress raises concerns about market stability and price volatility.

  • Why 30°C Is a Critical Threshold

Coffee trees require stable temperature ranges and balanced rainfall patterns. Arabica, in particular, begins to suffer productivity losses when temperatures consistently exceed 30°C. Prolonged heat can result in:

  1. Lower cherry production
  2. Reduced bean quality
  3. Increased pest and disease outbreaks
  4. Higher production costs

These factors directly affect both yield and cup quality, creating ripple effects throughout the supply chain.

  • Record Prices Reflect Climate Strain

Globally, approximately two billion cups of coffee are consumed daily. Any disruption in producing countries quickly impacts international markets.

According to the World Bank, prices for Arabica and Robusta nearly doubled between 2023 and 2025, reaching record highs in February 2025.

The surge reflects tightening supply conditions, climate-driven production challenges, and structural vulnerabilities within the coffee value chain.

  • Smallholder Farmers on the Front Line

Smallholder farmers produce between 60% and 80% of the world’s coffee. Yet climate adaptation funding reaching these producers remains limited, leaving many with constrained capacity to respond to rising temperatures.

Without stronger climate adaptation strategies — including shade management, climate-resilient varieties, and financial support — suitable growing areas may shrink or shift to higher elevations, increasing long-term production risks.

  • The Future of Coffee at a Crossroads

Coffee is more than a commodity; it is a cultural and economic pillar supporting millions of livelihoods worldwide. As heat extremes intensify across major producing regions, the industry faces structural transformation driven by climate realities.

The central question is no longer whether climate change affects coffee — but how quickly producers, governments, and markets can adapt to safeguard the future of one of the world’s most consumed beverages.

 

Sucafina Releases Key Update on Vietnam’s 2025/26 Coffee Harvest

Posted on by Qahwa World

Vietnam Harvest Update 2025/26: Delayed Start, Strong Outlook

Dubai – Qahwa World

With global markets closely monitoring Vietnam, recent heavy rains from Storm 15 have attracted significant attention among those keen to understand the weather’s impact on supply. We caught up with Khoi Nguyen, Trading Manager at Sucafina Vietnam, for an update. Khoi tells us that despite rain-driven delays and labor tightness, the outlook remains positive, with production increases expected and quality indicators trending upward.

  • Production on the rise: Vietnam’s combined Robusta & Arabica 2025/26 Coffee crop is forecast at 31.2 million bags, up 12% year on year.
  • Heavy rains delaying progress: Excessive rainfall has slowed harvesting (14% of Robusta completed vs. ~25% historical average), compounded by labor shortages.
  • Strong quality prospects: Favorable cherry development and solid farm investment support expectations for improved overall quality.

Harvest Status: Delayed but Resilient

Despite the weather challenges making headlines, Vietnam’s coffee harvest is showing remarkable resilience. Khoi and the team project a total production of 31.2 million bags – a 12% increase over last year. This includes 29.9 million bags of Robusta (up 11.5%) and 1.3 million bags of Arabica (up 19%). These numbers exceed our earlier forecasts (+6%) and sit well above the five-year average. Early-season agronomic conditions were favorable, and ongoing investment in farming helped set a strong foundation.

Recent weeks of intense rainfall have slowed harvesting across key Robusta regions. As of 25 November, only 14% of the crop had been harvested, compared with 17% at the same time last season. Labor availability is also lower this year, adding pressure to farm operations. However, sustained high coffee prices over two consecutive years provide farmers resources and incentives to manage these difficulties. If weather stabilizes, quality is expected to improve over last year.

2025/26 Harvest Timing

Robusta harvest is expected to peak in mid-December, with farmers busy harvesting, drying, and husking across Vietnam’s major producing areas.

Arabica harvest has reached its peak in the North (accounting for around 70% of the total Arabica crop). Central Arabica regions will peak early-December.

Both Robusta and Arabica harvests should be expected to complete in late January.

Regulatory & Supplier Landscape

Two key regulatory themes affect the supply chain: a 5% VAT on green coffee was introduced in July 2025, and the evolving European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Neither has an immediate impact at the farm level.

A 5% VAT on green coffee trading has been in place since July 2025 (previously only applied to roasted). The VAT has no impact on farmers’ harvesting behavior, but it may influence how exporters manage their supplier base. While it will not impact overall pricing (as VAT is refunded at export), it adds complexity to reporting administration and reduces cash flow somewhat.

Though EUDR details and enforcement timelines remain unclear, Vietnam’s supply chain is proactive. Supplier collaboration on geodata analysis and completion of macro risk assessment data collection position shipments well for 2025 due-diligence requirements.

IMPACT Supply Chains & Sustainability

Our IMPACT verified supply chains in Gia Lai and Lâm Đồng are each progressing through audit cycles. IMPACT-verified coffees will be available starting December 2025.

In Arabica regions, we have successfully registered and audited over 1,500 new farmers in Son La and Lâm Đồng for Rainforest Alliance (RA), 4C, and C.A.F.E. Practices certifications. These farmers have also completed training on RA and other agricultural standards. Other sustainability initiatives, including composting, tree planting, GAP training, and soil sampling, continue per earlier updates.

Outlook

While heavy rains understandably raise concerns, the broader view is optimistic. Vietnam is positioned to deliver a larger coffee crop with strong quality potential, grounded in sustained farmer investment and solid production forecasts. Weather stability in December and January remains critical. If conditions normalize, the 2025/26 season could mark one of Vietnam’s strongest performances in recent years.

Farmers’ gains from two years of high prices bolster reinvestment but also elevate their pricing expectations. For roasters and traders, this underscores the importance of early engagement on volumes and quality to secure desired lots.

Despite the media spotlight on weather-related challenges, the reality is nuanced: delays and risks require careful monitoring, but strong production volumes, sound quality fundamentals, and a mature, sustainability-focused supply chain provide confidence. If you are interested in learning more about our Vietnam supply chain or booking coffee from Vietnam, reach out to your trader!