NCA Applauds Coffee Exemption from Section 301 Tariffs

Posted on July 16, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: National Coffee Association (NCA)
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 16, 2026

NCA Applauds Coffee Exemption from Section 301 Tariffs

USTR announced exemption of coffee from Section 301 tariffs on Brazil.
Exemption includes unflavored instant coffee for the first time.
Two-thirds of American adults drink coffee daily.
NCA President Bill Murray thanked the administration for the decision.
The exemption recognizes coffee’s unique benefit to the US economy.
The US cannot grow coffee to meet domestic demand.
The decision eases cost-of-living pressures for American consumers.

The National Coffee Association issued a statement today. It responded to the USTR’s announcement on coffee tariffs. The USTR confirmed that coffee will be exempted from Section 301 tariffs on Brazil. The exemption includes unflavored instant coffee.

NCA President and CEO William “Bill” Murray thanked the administration. He praised the decision to maintain previous coffee exemptions. He also welcomed the addition of unflavored instant coffee. The move recognizes coffee’s unique benefit to US consumers and companies.

NCA Statement: Coffee Exemption Protects Consumers

“Two-thirds of American adults drink coffee each day – more than any other beverage, including water – and today they can do so with confidence that new tariffs will not affect the largest source of their favorite beverage.

The United States can’t grow coffee to meet our needs, so the administration’s strategic exemptions make critical contributions to easing cost-of-living pressures and enabling coffee’s continued enormous contributions to U.S. jobs, manufacturing, and the economy.”

— William “Bill” Murray, President and CEO, National Coffee Association

Impact on US Consumers

Two-thirds of American adults drink coffee each day. This is more than any other beverage, including water. The exemption ensures that consumers can enjoy their coffee without tariff-related price increases. This is particularly important given current cost-of-living pressures.

The United States cannot grow coffee to meet domestic demand. Therefore, imports are essential. The strategic exemption helps maintain affordable coffee prices for millions of Americans.

Economic Significance of Coffee

Coffee makes enormous contributions to the US economy. It supports jobs across the supply chain. This includes roasting, manufacturing, and retail. The exemption enables these contributions to continue without disruption.

The NCA emphasized that coffee is uniquely important. It is not just a beverage but a critical part of American daily life. The administration’s decision reflects this understanding.

**Key Facts About Coffee in the US**
Fact	Detail
Daily coffee drinkers	Two-thirds of American adults
Rank among beverages	Most consumed, ahead of water
US coffee production	Cannot meet domestic demand
Tariff exemption	Includes unflavored instant coffee
Economic impact	Supports jobs, manufacturing, and economy

About the Section 301 Investigation

The USTR conducted a Section 301 investigation into various policies and practices of Brazil. As a result, tariffs were imposed on certain goods. However, coffee has been exempted from these tariffs. This decision recognizes the unique position of coffee in the US market.

The NCA has advocated for this exemption. The association represents the US coffee industry. Its members include roasters, retailers, and importers. The exemption benefits the entire industry and consumers.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the USTR announce regarding coffee tariffs?The USTR announced that coffee, including unflavored instant coffee, will be exempted from Section 301 tariffs on Brazil.

Why is this exemption important?The exemption protects consumers from price increases and supports the US coffee industry, which cannot meet domestic demand through local production.

How many Americans drink coffee daily?Two-thirds of American adults drink coffee each day, making it the most consumed beverage in the country.

What did NCA President Bill Murray say?He thanked the administration for the decision and highlighted coffee’s unique benefit to US consumers, companies, and the economy.

Does the exemption include instant coffee?Yes, the exemption includes unflavored instant coffee for the first time, in addition to previously exempted coffee products.

Why can’t the US produce its own coffee?The US climate is not suitable for commercial coffee cultivation, making imports essential to meet domestic demand.

Ethiopia Coffee Revenue Tops 3 Billion

Posted on July 8, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Official government reports & Daily Coffee News analysis
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 8, 2026

Ethiopia Coffee Revenue Tops 3 Billion

Ethiopia earned 3.1 billion dollars from coffee exports in a single year.
This represents a 719.6% increase compared to 20 years ago.
The country ranks third globally and first in Africa for coffee exports.
One year’s income exceeded the total of the previous 17 years combined.
Rising global demand for organic coffee opens new opportunities for Ethiopia.
A comparison with Brazil reveals Ethiopia’s competitive edge in sustainable farming.
The analysis recommends increased technical and financial support for farmers.

Ethiopia announced a historic achievement in its coffee sector. Export revenues surpassed the 3 billion dollar mark. This reflects a strategic transformation in farming and marketing policies.

Annual revenues reached 3.1 billion dollars. This surpasses the total earned over the previous 17 years. That total stood at only 3.3 billion dollars.

Historical Numbers Confirm Accelerated Growth

Official data compared current performance with past periods. The results showed enormous revenue growth. For example, 20 years ago, revenues were only 366 million dollars. Today, they stand at 3.1 billion dollars.

In addition, the net increase over 20 years exceeded 2.6 billion dollars. This translates to a growth rate of 719.6%. In contrast, income more than doubled within the last 5 years alone.

**Ethiopian Coffee Export Revenue Comparison (in billions USD)**
Period	Revenue	Net Increase	Growth Rate
20 years ago	0.366	+2.634	719.6%
10 years ago	0.722	+2.278	315.5%
5 years ago	0.907	+2.093	230.7%
Current year	3.100	—	—

Strategic Opportunities Amid Brazil’s Crisis

Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, faces severe climate challenges. Production in Minas Gerais state has been heavily damaged. As a result, Brazil’s export capacity has declined.

In contrast, Ethiopia possesses unique natural advantages. It is the birthplace of Arabica coffee. Moreover, its farming relies on organic and forest-based systems. Therefore, it can fill the gap in European and Asian markets.

Organic Coffee and the Competitive Edge

Brazilian farmers are shifting to chemical fertilizers. They aim to quickly compensate for lost production. However, this reduces the quality of organic coffee.

Meanwhile, Ethiopian coffee remains natural and chemical-free. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s agroforestry system complies with new EU regulations. This strengthens its position in the global market. Consequently, the value of its exports continues to rise.

Required Steps to Maximize Gains

The report urged immediate action. First, increase productivity through technical support for farmers. Second, improve quality control to maintain global reputation. Third, provide affordable financing for sustainable agricultural projects.

In addition, leverage strong diplomatic ties with Asia. Especially China, which is a vast emerging market. Ultimately, this will enable Ethiopia to turn its origin advantage into true market dominance.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Ethiopia’s current coffee export value?Ethiopia’s coffee exports reached 3.1 billion dollars last year, setting a new record.

What was the export value 20 years ago?The value was only 366 million dollars, which means a massive growth of over 700%.

What is Ethiopia’s global ranking in coffee exports?Ethiopia ranks third globally after Brazil and Colombia, and first in Africa.

How does Ethiopia benefit from Brazil’s crisis?It can compensate for the global supply shortage, especially in Europe and Asia, thanks to the quality of its organic and natural beans.

What are the main challenges for the sector?The sector needs more farmer support, better infrastructure, and increased funding to meet new market requirements.

Is Ethiopian coffee completely organic?Yes, the vast majority is grown naturally on small farms or in forests, without any chemical inputs.

Coffee Prices Surge 16% on Brazil Harvest Delays and Weather Risks

Posted on July 6, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: July 6, 2026

Coffee Prices Surge 16% on Brazil Harvest Delays and Weather Risks

Key Takeaways:

Arabica prices jumped 16.19% to a 5.5-month high; robusta rose 8.83% to a 5-month high.
Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was only 52% complete as of July 1, behind last year’s 60% and the 55% five-year average.
Rain is forecast for mid-July in Brazil, which could be detrimental to coffee crops.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-month low of 366,756 bags.
El Niño concerns are supporting prices, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y), which remains a bearish factor.
Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.3% in the first half of 2026, pressuring robusta prices.

Coffee prices catapulted higher on Monday, with arabica posting a 5.5-month high and robusta reaching a 5-month high amid a delayed coffee harvest in Brazil. September arabica futures closed up 16.19%, while September robusta futures gained 8.83%.

According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 52% complete as of July 1, behind last year’s comparable level of 60% and the five-year average of 55%.

Harvest Delay and Rain Forecast Drive Prices Higher

Gains in coffee accelerated on Monday after meteorologist Rural Clima said rain is forecast for a large part of Brazil in the middle of July, which could be “detrimental” to crops, including coffee. Also, Monday’s rally in the Brazilian real to a two-week high against the dollar discourages coffee sales from Brazil’s producers and is supportive for prices.

Coffee prices have moved sharply higher over the past month as heavy rains in Brazil disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered coffee crop quality. Brazilian coffee farmers are also holding back on sales, hoping prices will rise and bracing for the potential impact of this year’s El Niño weather event.

Exchange Inventories at 27-Month Lows

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months, supporting coffee prices. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-month low of 366,756 bags on Monday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 but have since risen to a three-month high of 4,109 lots last Friday.

Indicator	Value	Significance
September Arabica Futures	+16.19%	5.5-month high
September Robusta Futures	+8.83%	5-month high
ICE Arabica Stocks	366,756 bags	27-month low
Brazil Harvest Completion	52%	Below last year’s 60%
ICE Robusta Stocks	4,109 lots	3-month high

El Niño Concerns Support Prices and Threaten Next Year’s Crop

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year that could be the strongest on record. On June 10, the Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño pattern had formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Bearish Factors: Record Crop Forecasts and Vietnam Exports

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously.

In Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, coffee exports in the first half of 2026 rose 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.

Indicator	2025/26	Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production	178.85 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica Production	95.52 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta Production	83.33 million bags	+10.9%
Ending Stocks	20.15 million bags	-5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About the Coffee Price Surge

Q: Why did coffee prices surge 16%?

A: Due to Brazil’s delayed harvest (52% complete vs. 60% last year), rain forecasts for mid-July that could damage crops, and inventories falling to 27-month lows.

Q: How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 366,756 bags (a 27-month low), while robusta stocks rose to 4,109 lots (a 3-month high).

Q: Will prices continue to rise?

A: It depends on weather developments in Brazil, the severity of any crop damage, El Niño developments, and inventory trends.

The coffee market faces heightened uncertainty. While large surplus expectations remain in the background, delayed harvests, weather risks, falling inventories, and El Niño concerns are reshaping the balance. Investors are closely watching weather developments in Brazil and inventory trends to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: July 6, 2026

Drier Weather in Brazil Aids Coffee Harvest and Weighs on Prices

Posted on June 22, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 22, 2026

Drier Weather in Brazil Aids Coffee Harvest and Weighs on Prices

Key Takeaways:

Arabica prices fell 0.73% and robusta fell 1.76% to a one-week low, as drier weather in Brazil is expected to allow the harvest to resume.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eases supply disruptions, lowering shipping, insurance, and fuel costs.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-month low of 394,267 bags.
El Niño concerns support prices, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year.
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y).
Vietnam’s exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, with production expected at 29.4 million bags (+6%).
Global production in 2025/26 is projected at 178.85 million bags (+2.0%), with ending stocks falling 5.4%.

Coffee prices came under pressure today, with robusta falling sharply to a one-week low. The decline came as expectations of drier weather in Brazil raised hopes that the country’s coffee harvest can resume. September arabica futures fell 0.73%, while July robusta futures dropped 1.76%.

Prices had rallied to five-week highs last Thursday amid persistent rain in Brazil, which delayed the harvest. However, improving weather conditions are now reversing that trend, as harvesting activities are expected to accelerate in key coffee regions.

Drier Weather Resumes Harvest and Pressures Prices

Meteorological agencies forecast drier weather across Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions in the coming days, allowing farmers to resume harvesting activities that had been halted by heavy rains. This development is expected to increase supply in global markets, especially with expectations of a bumper harvest this year. The improved weather conditions have led to a decline in prices, as traders took advantage of the favorable weather to accelerate profit-taking.

Strait of Hormuz Reopening Eases Supply Disruptions

Authorities announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, easing supply disruptions that have affected the market in recent months. The reopening is expected to lower shipping rates, insurance premiums, fuel costs, and fertilizer prices, thereby reducing overall costs for importers and roasters. This development represents an additional bearish factor, as lower logistics costs remove some of the support that had been underpinning prices during the closure.

Indicator	Value	Significance
September Arabica Futures	-0.73%	Decline on improving weather
July Robusta Futures	-1.76%	One-week low
ICE Arabica Stocks	394,267 bags	27-month low
ICE Robusta Stocks	4,032 lots	2.25-month high
Strait of Hormuz	Reopened	Easing supply disruptions

Exchange Inventories at Multi-Year Lows

ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to 394,267 bags last Thursday, the lowest level in 27 months. This decline in inventories supports prices and reflects tight physical supplies. In contrast, ICE robusta inventories jumped from a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 to 4,032 lots, the highest level in 2.25 months.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices and Threaten Next Year’s Crop

Concerns over the impact of an El Niño weather pattern on Brazil’s next coffee crop continue to support prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño could delay the arrival of seasonal rains during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September and October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could be the strongest on record. The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed on June 10 that El Niño conditions have formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Large Crops Continue to Weigh on the Market

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported on June 11 that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May to 2.73 million bags.

Vietnam Expands Exports and Production, Adding Pressure

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continues to increase exports, adding further pressure on prices. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office on June 2, coffee exports during the first five months of 2026 reached 922,000 metric tons, up 7.9% from the same period a year earlier. Full-year exports in 2025 rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.

Global Production Outlook and Inventories Point to a Delicate Balance

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports during the current marketing year (October–September) totaled 138.66 million bags, slightly down 0.3% from the previous year. Meanwhile, the USDA’s FAS projects global coffee production in 2025/26 to reach a record 178.85 million bags, up 2% year-on-year. The forecast includes arabica production of 95.52 million bags (-4.7%) and robusta production of 83.33 million bags (+10.9%). The USDA estimates Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop at 63 million bags, down 3.1% from the previous year, while Vietnam’s production is expected to rise 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are forecast to decline by 5.4% to 20.15 million bags in 2025/26, compared with 21.31 million bags in 2024/25.

Indicator	2025/26	Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production	178.85 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica Production	95.52 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta Production	83.33 million bags	+10.9%
Ending Stocks	20.15 million bags	-5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why did coffee prices decline today?

A: Due to expectations of drier weather in Brazil allowing the harvest to resume, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz easing supply disruptions.

Q: How does the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz affect coffee prices?

A: It is expected to lower shipping, insurance, and fuel costs, reducing costs for importers and roasters and putting downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 394,267 bags (a 27-month low), while robusta stocks rose to 4,032 lots (a 2.25-month high).

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

The coffee market remains caught between supportive factors (El Niño concerns, falling inventories) and bearish factors (improving weather in Brazil, Strait of Hormuz reopening, record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production). Improving weather conditions and the reopening of the strait add additional downward pressure, though El Niño concerns and declining inventories still provide some support. All eyes remain on weather developments in Brazil and inventory trends to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: June 22, 2026

Dollar Strength Weighs on Coffee Prices

Posted on June 19, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 19, 2026

Dollar Strength Weighs on Coffee Prices, Capping Gains Despite Brazil Harvest Delays

Key Takeaways:

Arabica prices closed down 0.99% as the dollar index surged to a 13-month high, triggering long liquidation in coffee futures.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-month low of 394,267 bags.
Rainfall expected in Brazil could delay the harvest, but next week may bring dry weather to key coffee regions.
El Niño concerns support prices, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year.
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y).
Vietnam’s exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, with production expected at 29.4 million bags (+6%).
Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to support prices through higher shipping and insurance costs.

Coffee prices closed mixed on Thursday, giving up early gains as the dollar index surged to a 13-month high, triggering a wave of long liquidation in coffee futures. July arabica futures fell 0.99%, while July robusta futures edged up 0.14%.

Prices had rallied sharply over the past week, reaching five-week highs amid concerns that persistent rain in Brazil would delay the coffee harvest. However, gains faded after meteorologist Climatempo said Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions are expected to see mostly dry weather next week.

Dollar and Weather Determine Price Direction

The dollar index rose to a 13-month high, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and triggering selling in coffee futures. On the weather front, forecaster Vaisala expects moderate to heavy rainfall across Brazil’s coffee-growing regions this week, which could delay the harvest and reduce immediate supplies. However, Climatempo’s forecast of dry weather next week eased some concerns.

Exchange Inventories at Multi-Year Lows

ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to 394,267 bags on Thursday, the lowest level in 27 months. This decline in inventories supports prices and reflects tight physical supplies. In contrast, ICE robusta inventories jumped from a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 to 4,032 lots, the highest level in 2.25 months.

Indicator	Value	Significance
July Arabica Futures	-0.99%	Decline pressured by dollar strength
July Robusta Futures	+0.14%	Slight gain
ICE Arabica Stocks	394,267 bags	27-month low
ICE Robusta Stocks	4,032 lots	2.25-month high
Dollar Index	13-month high	Pressure on commodities

El Niño Concerns Support Prices and Threaten Next Year’s Crop

Concerns over the impact of an El Niño weather pattern on Brazil’s next coffee crop continue to support prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño could delay the arrival of seasonal rains during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September and October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could be the strongest on record. The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed that El Niño conditions have formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Large Crops Continue to Weigh on the Market

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May to 2.73 million bags.

Vietnam Expands Exports and Production, Adding Pressure

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continues to increase exports, adding further pressure on prices. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office, coffee exports during the first five months of 2026 reached 922,000 metric tons, up 7.9% from the same period a year earlier. Full-year exports in 2025 rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Continue to Support Prices

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global coffee supplies and support prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance premiums, fuel costs, and fertilizer prices, increasing costs for importers and roasters. This geopolitical factor adds an additional layer of support to prices amid continued instability in the region.

Global Production Outlook and Inventories Point to a Delicate Balance

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports during the current marketing year (October–September) totaled 138.66 million bags, slightly down 0.3% from the previous year. Meanwhile, the USDA’s FAS projects global coffee production in 2025/26 to reach a record 178.85 million bags, up 2% year-on-year. The forecast includes arabica production of 95.52 million bags (-4.7%) and robusta production of 83.33 million bags (+10.9%). The USDA estimates Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop at 63 million bags, down 3.1% from the previous year, while Vietnam’s production is expected to rise 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are forecast to decline by 5.4% to 20.15 million bags in 2025/26, compared with 21.31 million bags in 2024/25.

Indicator	2025/26	Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production	178.85 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica Production	95.52 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta Production	83.33 million bags	+10.9%
Ending Stocks	20.15 million bags	-5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why did arabica prices decline despite concerns over Brazil harvest delays?

A: Due to the dollar index surging to a 13-month high, triggering long liquidation in futures contracts, combined with forecasts of dry weather in Brazil next week.

Q: How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 394,267 bags (a 27-month low), while robusta stocks jumped to 4,032 lots (a 2.25-month high).

Q: Will prices continue to be volatile?

A: Yes, with continued tension between supportive factors (harvest delays, El Niño concerns, falling inventories) and bearish factors (dollar strength, record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production).

The coffee market remains caught between immediate bullish factors (harvest delays, falling inventories, El Niño risks) and structural bearish factors (dollar strength, record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production and exports). The dollar’s surge to a 13-month high adds an additional layer of complexity, making commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. All eyes remain on weather developments in Brazil and dollar movements to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: June 19, 2026

International Coffee Partners Support Integrated Livelihoods and Strengthen Women in the Coffee Sector in 2025

Posted on June 18, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: International Coffee Partners – 2025 Annual Report |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 19, 2026

International Coffee Partners Support Integrated Livelihoods and Strengthen Women in the Coffee Sector in 2025

Key Takeaways:

International Coffee Partners (ICP) reached 12,819 smallholder coffee farming households across 5 countries in 2025, with a new project launched in Ethiopia.
Household income increased in Brazil from USD 16,033 to USD 18,170, and in Honduras from USD 7,938 to USD 10,372.
Indonesia saw income jump from USD 2,925 to USD 4,781, while Tanzania increased from USD 1,227 to USD 1,441 and Uganda from USD 1,793 to USD 1,949.
The Women’s Empowerment Index improved significantly: from 52% to 63% in Brazil, 61% to 68% in Honduras, and 65% to 84% in Tanzania.
45% of women and 21% of youth participated in project activities and trainings in 2025, with 487 farmer organizations engaged.
Since its founding in 2001, ICP has implemented 28 projects in 13 countries, reaching 125,700 households with investments of EUR 25 million.

International Coffee Partners (ICP) released its 2025 Annual Report, revealing continued efforts to support smallholder coffee farmers across five countries: Brazil, Honduras, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Uganda, with a new project launched in Ethiopia. Despite rising global coffee prices delivering short-term income gains, climate variability and continued dependence on favorable market conditions highlighted the sector’s cyclical nature and farmers’ exposure to global market fluctuations.

Smallholder coffee farmers continue to face significant challenges related to volatile markets, climate variability, and limited access to services and finance. These challenges are most pronounced in rural areas where livelihoods depend on climate-sensitive agricultural systems and often lack sufficient diversification, making households vulnerable to both climate and market-related shocks.

2025 Figures and Achievements: 12,819 Households Reached and New Project in Ethiopia

In 2025, ICP projects supported 12,819 smallholder coffee farming households across the five countries, with core activities including capacity building, climate-smart agriculture, livelihood diversification, strengthening farmer organizations, and inclusion of women and youth. The “CAFE Legacy” project was launched in Ethiopia, working with 10 cooperatives and one cooperative union, reaching over 2,000 members and indirectly benefiting approximately 12,000 coffee farming households.

Country	Households	Income 2024 (USD)	Income 2025 (USD)	WEI 2024	WEI 2025
Brazil	1,157	16,033	18,170	52%	63%
Honduras	2,303	7,938	10,372	61%	68%
Indonesia	3,607	2,925	4,781	70%	72%
Tanzania	3,620	1,227	1,441	65%	84%
Uganda	2,132	1,793	1,949	64%	66%

Source: ICP 2025 Annual Report. WEI = Women’s Empowerment Index.

Key Results by Country: Income Growth and Women’s Empowerment at the Forefront

Brazil: Average annual household income rose from USD 16,033 to USD 18,170, with the share of farmers practicing record keeping increasing from 54% to 72%. The Women’s Empowerment Index increased from 52% to 63%, reflecting stronger joint decision-making and agency at household level.

Honduras: Average annual household income increased from USD 7,938 to USD 10,372, with the Women’s Empowerment Index rising from 61% to 68%, alongside improved adoption of Good Agricultural Practices and Climate-Smart Agriculture.

Indonesia: The highest relative income increase was recorded, from USD 2,925 to USD 4,781, with a focus on women’s economic empowerment through women’s groups and improved farming practices.

Tanzania: Average annual household income increased from USD 1,227 to USD 1,441, with a notable increase in the Women’s Empowerment Index from 65% to 84%, reflecting significant progress in women’s participation in decision-making and cooperative leadership.

Uganda: Average annual household income increased from USD 1,793 to USD 1,949, with an integrated approach combining participatory climate planning, Farmer Field School training, and cooperative strengthening.

Ethiopia: In 2025, the “CAFE Legacy” (Coffee Alliances for Ethiopia) project was launched, building on the achievements of previous CAFE projects in which ICP worked closely with smallholder farmers and farmer organizations to enhance skills, productivity, and climate resilience. The project will collaborate with 10 coffee cooperatives and one cooperative union, reaching more than 2,000 cooperative members, including women and youth, and will indirectly benefit approximately 12,000 coffee farming households. Key focus areas include: strengthening cooperative governance and management capacity, improving business performance and market competitiveness, enhancing coffee quality through improved post-harvest handling and standards, promoting youth and women’s participation and leadership, and supporting infrastructure such as drying beds and storage facilities.

Women as Drivers of Transformation – Empowerment Index Shows Notable Improvement

ICP emphasizes that women’s empowerment strengthens the economic resilience and productivity of coffee-farming households and communities. The Women’s Empowerment Index saw notable improvements across all countries, particularly in Tanzania from 65% to 84%, Honduras from 61% to 68%, and Brazil from 52% to 63%. Activities included gender and youth-focused approaches to enhance participation and economic opportunities.

Global Presence: 28 Projects in 13 Countries, Reaching 125,700 Households

Since its founding in 2001, ICP has implemented 28 projects in 13 countries, reaching 125,700 households with total investments of EUR 25 million from ICP shareholders. ICP worked with 487 farmer organizations, and 45% of women and 21% of youth participated in project activities and trainings in 2025.

Institutional Partners and Estimated Returns

ICP’s institutional partners include Neumann Gruppe, EMS, EST, Café Gold, Kabi, and Nestlé. ICP estimates that every euro invested by its shareholders generates approximately 7 euros in social, environmental, and economic returns, reflecting the effectiveness of its integrated development model.

What Matters: Integrated Livelihood Support and Women’s Empowerment

ICP emphasizes that integrated livelihood support requires empowering smallholder farmers to assess risks, opportunities, and trade-offs in increasingly complex environments. Through a participatory and inclusive approach, content is tailored to local needs with continuous community feedback. Training and technical support are linked to institutional strengthening and inclusive economic development, enabling farmers to manage climate risks and access market opportunities. ICP believes that women can be key drivers of transformation and that empowering them strengthens the economic resilience and productivity of coffee-farming households and communities.

Frequently Asked Questions About the ICP 2025 Annual Report

Q: Which countries did ICP work in during 2025?

A: Brazil, Honduras, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Uganda, with a new project launched in Ethiopia.

Q: How many households benefited from ICP projects in 2025?

A: 12,819 smallholder coffee farming households.

Q: Which countries saw the highest income increases?

A: Indonesia saw the highest relative increase from USD 2,925 to USD 4,781, followed by Honduras from USD 7,938 to USD 10,372.

Q: How did the Women’s Empowerment Index improve?

A: It improved across all countries, with significant increases in Tanzania from 65% to 84%, Honduras from 61% to 68%, and Brazil from 52% to 63%.

Q: What are ICP’s cumulative investments and reach since its founding?

A: EUR 25 million invested, reaching 125,700 households across 13 countries.

The ICP 2025 Annual Report confirms that investing in smallholder coffee farmers, empowering women, and strengthening local institutions are essential pillars for building a more resilient and sustainable coffee sector. As climate and market challenges persist, integrated development models that place farmers at the heart of solutions are increasingly vital.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on the 2025 Annual Report of International Coffee Partners (ICP).

Publication date: June 19, 2026

Infrastructure Challenges Threaten Brazilian Coffee Competitiveness Globally

Posted on June 18, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 18, 2026

Infrastructure Challenges Threaten Brazilian Coffee Competitiveness Globally

Key Takeaways:

Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, faces severe infrastructure challenges threatening its competitive position.
Transport infrastructure investment is only 0.13% of GDP, far below the minimum required 4%.
Over 65% of grain is transported by road, despite high costs that can reach 60% of the ton price.
Storage deficit estimated at 134 million tons, with storage capacity growing at 2% annually versus 4% production growth.
Coffee ranks first globally in production and exports, but transport and storage challenges threaten its quality and competitiveness.
The Northern Arc has become a strategic export corridor for coffee and grains, with its share growing from 12% to 35% since 2010.
Experts warn that the logistics network could become a binding constraint on agricultural growth by 2034 without sufficient investment.

Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, faces growing infrastructure challenges that threaten its competitive position in global markets. Despite being the world’s leading coffee producer, deteriorating logistics infrastructure and rising transport costs threaten to turn this competitive advantage into a heavy burden for Brazilian producers and exporters.

These challenges come at a critical time, as coffee cultivation in Brazil expands toward the North and Center-West regions, creating new production frontiers that require highways, railways, ports, warehouses, and logistics services beyond traditional routes. However, government investment in infrastructure remains woefully inadequate, threatening Brazilian coffee’s leadership in the global market.

Infrastructure Reality: Modest Investment, Massive Challenges

According to a report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Brazil’s transport infrastructure investment is only 0.13% of GDP, far below the minimum 4% that the Brazilian Association of Infrastructure and Basic Industries considers necessary to meet the country’s needs.

World Economic Forum data shows Brazil’s overall infrastructure score is just 29.8, far behind countries like Switzerland (94.8), Denmark (88.3), and Sweden (86). The International Institute of Management Development (IMD) ranks Brazil 58th out of 69 countries in infrastructure assessment.

Brazil has 1.7 million kilometers of roads, but only 216,000 kilometers are paved (12%). The country also has 30,000 kilometers of railways, with only one-third in commercial operation, and approximately 20,000 kilometers of navigable waterways.

Transport Sector	Budget (BRL billion)	Percentage
Road	11.8	65%
Aviation	3.8	21%
Waterways	2.0	11%
Railways	0.399	2%

Source: USDA FAS – Report BR2026-0026

Brazilian Coffee at the Heart of the Crisis: World No. 1 Under Pressure

Brazil ranks first globally in production and exports of coffee, along with sugar, orange juice, and soybeans. However, Brazilian coffee, a vital part of agricultural exports, faces logistical challenges that could affect its quality and competitiveness in global markets.

According to the report, Brazilian coffee exports to the United States alone reached approximately $1.9 billion in 2025, with a volume of 293,400 tons. Santos Port is the largest exporter of coffee to the US, shipping $1.6 billion and 241,000 tons.

Transport and storage challenges threaten these figures. Transport costs can reach 60% of the ton price for corn and 25% for soybeans due to long distances of 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers to reach ports. Coffee faces the same challenges, relying heavily on long-distance road transport, which increases costs and affects quality.

Road Dependence: High Costs and a Widening Storage Gap

Approximately 65% of grain transport in Brazil relies on roads, while railways account for 22% and waterways only 9%. This excessive dependence on road transport raises costs and creates bottlenecks during harvest seasons. Data indicates that approximately 70,000 additional trucks are used more than necessary to move agricultural crops in Brazil.

Regarding storage, Brazil suffers from a massive deficit. Total storage capacity is 202 million tons, but agricultural production far exceeds this capacity. Storage capacity grows at 2% annually, while production grows at 4%, continuously widening the gap. The national storage deficit is estimated at approximately 134 million tons against total grain production of 357 million tons.

This storage shortage forces producers to offload their harvests without delay, leading to concentrated supply in short windows, lower prices, and increased pressure on ports and freight networks.

Northern Arc: Strategic Hope and Promising Growth for Brazilian Coffee

The Northern Arc represents one of the strategic solutions to reduce pressure on traditional ports in the South and Southeast. The corridor’s share of grain exports doubled from 12% in 2010 to 35% in 2024. Estimates suggest the Northern Arc provides a competitive advantage of up to $7.82 per ton for soybean shipments to China compared to Santos Port.

According to the report, private sector investment of approximately BRL 46 billion is expected in Northern Arc ports and terminals. However, these investments face regulatory and environmental challenges that hinder their timely implementation.

Railways: Promising Solutions and Continuing Challenges

Estimates indicate that long-distance rail transport can reduce freight costs by 15 to 25% compared to road transport. Brazil is working on developing a new railway network, including the Mato Grosso Railway (FMT) spanning 743 kilometers, and the Nova Ferroeste project connecting agribusiness areas in the Center-West and South to Paranaguá Port.

However, challenges remain significant. Of 70 authorizations issued between 2013 and 2019, 21 terminals never entered operation within the five-year legal deadline due to environmental, financial, and legal obstacles.

Expert Warning: 2034 as a Critical Turning Point for Brazilian Coffee

Industry experts warn that without sufficient investment, Brazil’s logistics network could become a binding constraint on the growth of the Brazilian coffee sector by 2034. The Brazilian Association of Infrastructure and Basic Industries estimates that Brazil needs to invest approximately BRL 242 billion annually to develop adequate transport and logistics infrastructure across road, rail, waterway, and air sectors.

The report indicates that inflation, fuel prices, and rising input costs such as tires and tolls have pushed transportation expenses higher, steadily undermining the competitiveness of Brazilian producers in global markets.

Impact on the Global Coffee Market: Risks and Opportunities

If Brazil’s infrastructure challenges continue unaddressed, this could lead to:

Higher global coffee prices: Due to increased transport and storage costs.
Declining quality of Brazilian coffee: Resulting from transport delays and poor storage.
Loss of market share: To other producers like Vietnam, Colombia, and Ethiopia.
Supply volatility: Due to logistical bottlenecks during harvest seasons.

Conversely, these challenges could create opportunities for other producing countries to strengthen their global market share, especially if they can deliver high-quality coffee at competitive prices with reliable supply chains.

Frequently Asked Questions About Brazilian Coffee Infrastructure Challenges

Q: Why is infrastructure a major challenge for Brazil’s coffee sector?

A: Due to excessive dependence on road transport, weak investment in railways and waterways, insufficient storage capacity, and high transport costs that can reach 60% of the ton price.

Q: How much investment is needed to develop Brazil’s infrastructure?

A: The Brazilian Association of Infrastructure and Basic Industries estimates Brazil needs approximately BRL 242 billion annually to develop transport and logistics sectors.

Q: How does storage shortage affect coffee prices?

A: Storage shortage forces producers to sell their harvests immediately, increasing supply in short periods and lowering prices, while also increasing pressure on transport and ports.

Q: What is the Northern Arc and why is it important for Brazilian coffee?

A: A strategic logistics corridor connecting production regions in the North and Center-West to ports in the North and Northeast, offering a competitive advantage of up to $8 per ton compared to traditional southern ports.

Q: When is the greatest risk for Brazilian coffee?

A: Experts warn that the logistics network could become a binding constraint on agricultural growth by 2034 without radical infrastructure investment.

Brazil, the global coffee giant, faces infrastructure challenges that threaten its market leadership. Between agricultural expansion into new regions and insufficient investment, the future of Brazilian coffee hangs on political will and private investment. Meanwhile, coffee lovers worldwide watch closely as this sensitive issue may reshape the global coffee production and export map in the coming decade.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report BR2026-0026, issued June 16, 2026.

Publication date: June 18, 2026

Coffee Prices Continue to Rise Supported by Brazil Harvest Delays and El Niño Risks

Posted on June 17, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 17, 2026

Coffee Prices Continue to Rise Supported by Brazil Harvest Delays and El Niño Risks

Key Takeaways:

Arabica prices rose 2.85% to a two-week high, robusta gained 1.36% to a five-week high.
Rainfall expected in Brazil may delay the harvest and reduce immediate supplies.
ICE arabica inventories fell to 397,242 bags – the lowest level in seven months.
El Niño risks threaten the critical flowering period in Brazil (September-October) and could impact the 2026/27 crop.
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y).
Vietnam’s exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, with production expected at 29.4 million bags (+6%).
Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are increasing transport costs and supporting prices.

Coffee prices continued to rise on Tuesday, supported by concerns that persistent rainfall in Brazil could delay the country’s coffee harvest. July Arabica futures gained 2.85%, while July Robusta futures advanced 1.36%. Arabica reached a two-week high, while robusta climbed to its highest level in five weeks.

The rally comes despite expectations of a record Brazilian crop, as the market appears to be focusing on immediate supply-side factors, including weather and declining inventories.

Harvest Delays Raise Supply Concerns

Weather remains a key driver of the market. Forecasting company Vaisala expects moderate to heavy rainfall across Brazil’s major coffee-growing regions this week, potentially slowing harvesting activities and delaying supplies reaching the market. Further supporting prices, ICE-monitored arabica inventories have been trending lower for the past three months. Arabica stocks fell to 397,242 bags on Monday, the lowest level in nearly seven months. Robusta inventories, however, have recovered from a two-year low of 3,631 lots recorded on May 15, rising to 3,991 lots.

Indicator	Value	Change
July Arabica Futures	+2.85%	Two-week high
July Robusta Futures	+1.36%	Five-week high
ICE Arabica Stocks	397,242 bags	Seven-month low
ICE Robusta Stocks	3,991 lots	Recovered from two-year low

El Niño Risks Loom Over Next Year’s Crop

Market participants are also monitoring the development of an El Niño weather pattern, which could affect Brazil’s next coffee crop. Coffee trader Volcafe has warned that El Niño could delay the arrival of seasonal rains during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September and October, potentially impacting the 2026/27 harvest. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a strong El Niño event this year. Meanwhile, the Japan Meteorological Agency has confirmed that El Niño conditions have developed across the equatorial Pacific. Such weather patterns can trigger droughts, floods, and temperature extremes that may disrupt coffee production in both South America and Asia.

Large Crops Continue to Weigh on the Market Despite Temporary Gains

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. Earlier this month, arabica futures fell to a 19-month low, while robusta touched a two-month low after forecasts pointed to a record Brazilian crop. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May to 2.73 million bags.

Indicator	Value	Change
USDA Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast	71.9 million bags	+14%
Rabobank Global Arabica Surplus	9.5 million bags	(was 7 million)
Brazil Green Coffee Exports (May)	2.73 million bags	+4.2%

Vietnam Expands Exports and Production, Adding Pressure on Prices

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continues to increase exports, adding further pressure to prices. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office, coffee exports during the first five months of 2026 reached 922,000 metric tons, up 7.9% from the same period a year earlier. Full-year exports in 2025 rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags. This increase in production and exports adds further supply to the global market, particularly in the robusta segment.

Shipping Disruptions Support Prices

Geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes have also contributed to market strength. Disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have increased freight rates, insurance premiums, fuel costs, and fertilizer prices, raising costs throughout the coffee supply chain. This geopolitical factor adds an additional layer of support to prices, as these higher costs are passed on to importers, roasters, and ultimately consumers.

Global Production Outlook and Inventories Point to a Delicate Balance

Indicator	2025/26	Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production	178.85 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica Production	95.52 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta Production	83.33 million bags	+10.9%
Ending Stocks	20.15 million bags	-5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why are coffee prices rising despite expectations of a record crop in Brazil?

A: Because of immediate factors such as harvest delays due to rain, inventories falling to a seven-month low, and concerns about El Niño impact on next year’s crop.

Q: How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 397,242 bags (a seven-month low), while robusta stocks rose to 3,991 lots from a two-year low.

Q: Will prices continue to rise?

A: It depends on weather developments in Brazil, El Niño risks, ongoing shipping disruptions, and the scale of the expected surplus from the record crop.

The coffee market remains caught between immediate bullish factors (harvest delays, falling inventories, El Niño risks, shipping disruptions) and structural bearish factors (record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production and exports). All eyes remain on weather developments in Brazil to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report.

Publication date: June 17, 2026

Coffee Prices Jump as Persistent Rain in Brazil Delays the Coffee Harvest

Posted on June 12, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Coffee World |
Date: June 12, 2026

Coffee Prices Jump as Persistent Rain in Brazil Delays the Coffee Harvest

Key Takeaways:

July arabica rose 2.17% and July robusta rose 3.19% to one‑week highs.
Moderate to heavy rain is forecast across Brazil’s coffee regions this week and may extend into next week.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 6.5‑month low of 402,709 bags.
Concerns over a “Super El Niño” that could damage Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop are supporting prices.
The USDA FAS forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% y/y.
Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in January‑May 2026, adding bearish pressure.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt supplies and support prices.

Coffee prices jumped to one‑week highs today amid concerns that persistent rain in Brazil will delay the coffee harvest. July arabica futures rose 2.17%, while July robusta futures gained 3.19%. Forecaster Vaisala said moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast across Brazil’s coffee‑growing regions this week, and the showers could extend into next week.

The rally comes after arabica hit a 19‑month low on Tuesday, driven by expectations of a bumper Brazilian crop. However, the current rains have renewed worries about harvest delays and quality.

Persistent Rain Threatens to Delay Brazil’s Harvest

According to Vaisala, moderate to heavy rain is expected across Brazil’s coffee regions this week, with the potential to continue into next week. This could disrupt harvesting activities that have already begun and affect bean quality. Delayed harvests typically lead to a higher proportion of defective beans and lower overall quality, reducing the supply of high‑grade coffee in the market. As a result, futures prices rose sharply, with short covering amplifying the move.

Exchange Inventories Fall to Multi‑Month Lows

ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to 402,709 bags on Wednesday, a 6.5‑month low. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories remained near a two‑year low at 3,713 lots. The decline in inventories supports prices by signaling tight near‑term supplies.

“Super El Niño” Threatens Brazil’s 2026/27 Crop

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial said El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, the period when tree flowering normally occurs, damaging the 2026/27 crop. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could be the strongest on record. On Wednesday, the Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed that an El Niño pattern has formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Source	Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS	71.9	Coffee Trading Academy	71.4	Marex Group	75.9	Sucafina	75.4	StoneX	75.3

Vietnam Exports and Surplus Forecasts Cap Gains

On the other hand, large surplus expectations still loom. Last Wednesday, the USDA FAS forecast a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% y/y. Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags from 7.0 million bags previously. Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, and its 2025/26 production is projected to climb 6% to 29.4 million bags. These factors limit the upside for prices in the longer term.

Type	2025/26 Forecast (million bags)	Year-on-Year Change
Arabica	95.52	-4.7%
Robusta	83.33	+10.9%
Global Total	178.85	+2.0%

Strait of Hormuz Closure Supports Prices

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global coffee supplies, supporting prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters. This geopolitical factor adds another layer of uncertainty to the market.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Moves

Q: Why did coffee prices jump today?

A: Because of forecasts for heavy rain in Brazil’s coffee regions, which could delay the harvest and affect quality.

Q: How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil and damage tree flowering, reducing next year’s crop and supporting higher prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Higher Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which tends to cap price gains in the medium term.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica inventories fell to 402,709 bags, a 6.5‑month low; robusta inventories near two‑year lows.

Q: Will prices continue to rise?

A: It depends on weather developments in Brazil, the severity of any El Niño impact, and geopolitical tensions.

The coffee market faces heightened uncertainty. While large surplus expectations remain in the background, current rains, El Niño risks, and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are reshaping the balance. Investors are closely watching weather developments in Brazil and inventory trends.

Prepared and edited by: Coffee World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: June 12, 2026

Brazil’s Coffee Reality: When Climate Pressure Collides With Market Demand

Posted on April 17, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

This analysis is based on reporting first published by Dialogue Earth and written by Kevin Damasio. It has been adapted and republished by Qahwa World.

In the hills of Minas Gerais, where much of the world’s Arabica coffee is grown, a quiet transformation is underway. What was once a cycle of seasonal uncertainty has become a continuous struggle shaped by climate instability and shifting global demand.

This is no longer just a farming challenge. It is a defining moment for the future of coffee.

From Climate Variability to Climate Disruption

For generations, Brazilian coffee farmers adapted to occasional droughts, frosts, and irregular rains. Today, those events are no longer exceptions. They are part of a persistent pattern.

Longer dry periods, rising temperatures, and unpredictable rainfall are disrupting the biological rhythm of coffee itself. Flowering cycles are affected. Bean development becomes uneven. Yields lose consistency.

In regions like southern Minas Gerais, farmers are not asking if the weather will affect production. They are asking how severe the impact will be each year.

Scientific projections reinforce what farmers already experience on the ground. A significant share of Brazil’s Arabica-growing land faces the risk of becoming economically unviable in the coming decades if warming trends continue.

High Prices, Fragile Foundations

At the global level, coffee prices have surged as supply tightens. Brazil continues to generate record export revenues, even as shipment volumes fluctuate.

But this apparent strength hides a more fragile reality.

Higher prices are not translating into long-term security for producers. The cost of keeping coffee trees productive is rising. Irrigation systems, soil management, and climate-resistant varieties require investment. Losses from extreme weather events reduce financial resilience.

For many farmers, especially smallholders, the margin between survival and loss is narrowing.

The market is rewarding scarcity, but the conditions behind that scarcity are weakening the system that produces coffee.

The Retreat From Organic

One of the most telling shifts is happening in the field. Organic coffee production, once a growing segment, is under pressure.

Organic methods demand more labor, stricter management, and often higher costs. Under stable conditions, these systems can deliver value through quality and certification premiums. Under climate stress, they become harder to sustain.

As a result, some farmers are returning to conventional practices to secure more predictable yields. Even when they continue to limit chemical use, the shift reflects a deeper tension between sustainability and economic survival.

This raises an important question for the global coffee industry. Can sustainability commitments hold when producers face increasing climate risk and financial pressure?

Adaptation Becomes a Daily Practice

Across Minas Gerais, adaptation is no longer a long-term strategy. It is part of daily decision-making.

Farmers are replanting with more resilient Arabica varieties. They are improving soil cover to retain moisture. They are installing protective systems against hail and excessive sun.

Tree planting is gaining ground as a practical response. Shade reduces heat stress, stabilizes production, and creates microclimates that are more forgiving under extreme conditions.

Yet adaptation comes at a cost. Not every producer has equal access to credit, technical knowledge, or time to experiment. This creates a widening gap between those who can adjust and those who struggle to keep up.

Agroforestry and the Search for Balance

Among the emerging approaches, agroforestry stands out as both a return to coffee’s origins and a potential path forward.

By integrating trees, crops, and ecological processes, agroforestry systems aim to recreate the natural environment in which Arabica evolved. These systems can improve soil health, regulate water cycles, and reduce exposure to extreme weather.

Early results suggest strong potential in terms of resilience and quality. However, productivity gains are not always immediate, and management is more complex.

For many farmers, the question is not whether agroforestry works, but whether it is economically viable in the short term.

Without stronger institutional support, technical guidance, and market incentives, adoption is likely to remain limited.

A Changing Demand Landscape

While production faces mounting pressure, demand continues to expand.

Asia is becoming an increasingly influential force in global coffee consumption. Countries such as China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are reshaping how coffee is consumed, marketed, and valued.

For Brazilian producers and cooperatives, this shift offers new opportunities. It also introduces new expectations around volume, consistency, and price competitiveness.

This creates a delicate balance. Expanding into new markets may require scaling production, while climate realities are pushing toward more cautious and diversified farming systems.

The Future Is Being Rewritten in the Field

What is happening in Minas Gerais reflects a broader transformation across the global coffee sector.

Climate change is no longer a distant threat. It is actively redefining how coffee is grown. At the same time, market dynamics continue to evolve, creating both opportunity and pressure.

Farmers are responding with a mix of resilience, experimentation, and compromise. Some invest in new technologies. Others return to conventional methods. A few explore more complex ecological systems.

There is no single path forward.

What is clear is that the future of coffee will not be shaped by price alone. It will depend on how well the industry supports those at its foundation, the farmers who are adapting in real time to an increasingly uncertain environment.

For coffee, this is not just a moment of challenge. It is a moment of redefinition.

Brazilian Real Boosts Arabica Coffee Prices

Posted on April 6, 2026April 6, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Arabica coffee prices rose on Monday, supported by a stronger Brazilian real, while expectations of a growing global surplus continued to limit gains.

Futures posted modest increases, while robusta trading remained inactive due to a market holiday in the United Kingdom.

The main support came from the Brazilian currency, which climbed to its highest level in several weeks against the US dollar. A stronger real typically reduces export incentives for Brazilian producers, the world’s largest coffee growers, tightening supply in international markets.

However, price gains remained capped by projections pointing to a widening global coffee surplus, expected to reach around 10 million bags in 2026, significantly higher than the previous year and marking the largest surplus in several years.

At the same time, expectations of a strong crop in Brazil continued to weigh on the market, with estimates suggesting production could exceed 75 million bags in the upcoming season, reinforcing global supply.

Despite these pressures, prices found some support from disruptions in global supply chains following the closure of a key maritime route, which led to higher shipping and insurance costs.

Weather conditions in Brazil also contributed to market support, as key arabica-growing regions recorded below-average rainfall, raising concerns about potential impacts on crop development.

Meanwhile, inventory data showed mixed signals, with robusta stocks declining while arabica inventories increased, reflecting an uneven balance in the market.

Brazil’s coffee exports also declined on a yearly basis, providing additional support to prices.

Overall, expectations of rising global production, along with increasing robusta output and higher exports from major producers such as Vietnam, continue to act as key downward pressures on the market in the period ahead.

IHOP revamps coffee program with new exclusive blend

Posted on April 1, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

United States-based casual dining chain IHOP has unveiled a major update to its coffee offering, marking the first change to its program in nearly 20 years with the launch of a new proprietary blend across its locations.

Known for its focus on American breakfast cuisine, the brand operates more than 1,300 restaurants globally, with the majority based in the United States.

The newly introduced coffee, branded as the IHOP Coffee Blend, is made from 100% sustainably sourced Arabica beans from Brazil. Alongside the new blend, the company has expanded its iced coffee range with additional flavours including dulce de leche, vanilla, and chocolate.

According to Lawrence Kim, president of Dine Brands Global, the update was driven by customer feedback and evolving consumer preferences.

He noted that the company continues to monitor guest input and market trends, adding that the new coffee is intended to complement IHOP’s value offerings while reinforcing its focus on delivering a high-quality breakfast experience.