Tag: Coffee Prices

Strong Dollar Weighs on Coffee Prices

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures closed lower on Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar pressured commodity markets. This is a clear example of how a Strong Dollar Weighs on Coffee Prices. July arabica coffee contracts (KCN26) fell 0.76%, while July robusta futures (RMN26) declined 0.63%.

Losses were limited by tightening certified coffee inventories. ICE arabica stocks dropped to a 2.5-month low of 471,831 bags, while robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,664 lots.

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to disrupt global coffee trade flows, increasing shipping, insurance, fuel, and fertilizer costs for importers and roasters.

Brazil’s weaker export performance also supported prices. Cecafe reported that Brazil’s March green coffee exports declined 10% year-on-year to 2.65 million bags, while the country’s Trade Ministry said total March coffee exports fell 31% to 151,000 metric tons.

Meanwhile, rising supplies from Vietnam weighed on robusta prices. Vietnam’s coffee exports during January–April 2026 increased 15.8% year-on-year to 810,000 metric tons, according to the National Statistics Office. The country’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to rise 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.

Expectations of a larger Brazilian crop also added bearish pressure. Recent forecasts from the Coffee Trading Academy, Marex Group, Sucafina, and StoneX all point to strong production in Brazil’s 2026/27 season, with estimates ranging from 71.4 million to 75.9 million bags.

StoneX also expects the global coffee surplus to expand to 10 million bags in 2026, compared with 1.8 million bags in 2025.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts global coffee production in 2025/26 will reach a record 178.848 million bags, driven by stronger robusta output, while global ending stocks are projected to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

International Coffee Organization Releases 2024/25 Annual Report

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Author: Qahwa World – Dubai | Source: International Coffee Organization | Date: May 11, 2026The following article provides an overview of the International Coffee Organization annual report 2024 2025 and its key findings. Moreover, this analysis highlights the importance of the International Coffee Organization annual report 2024 2025 for industry professionals and stakeholders.

The International Coffee Organization has released its Annual Review for coffee year 2024/25, a comprehensive official document covering sector performance and institutional developments from October 2024 to September 2025. This Annual Review forms a core part of the International Coffee Organization annual report 2024 2025 series.

The report serves as the primary reference for policymakers, researchers, and coffee industry stakeholders, documenting key developments in the global coffee sector alongside the Organization achievements at both international and institutional levels.

annual-review-2024-2025-e.pdf – 22

Key Highlights from the Report

  • ICO composite indicator price rose 52 percent to 306.6 US cents per pound
  • Organization granted UN General Assembly observer status in December 2024
  • G7 recognized coffee as strategic sector for first time since 1970s
  • World coffee production estimated at 177.5 million bags, up 5.2 percent
  • Global consumption increased 1.4 percent to 175.1 million bags
  • ICO membership comprises 75 countries

Market Data

According to the report, the ICO composite indicator price averaged 306.6 US cents per pound during the coffee year, a 52 percent increase from the previous year. This average remains 118.3 percent higher than the ten-year average. Prices ranged between 250.5 and 354.4 US cents per pound during the period, as detailed in the International Coffee Organization annual report 2024 2025.

Brazilian Naturals saw the strongest growth among Arabica groups, rising 67 percent to 342.2 US cents per pound. Colombian Mids and Other Mids increased 57.9 percent and 58.9 percent respectively. The Robusta group indicator grew 29 percent to 225.7 US cents per pound.

World coffee production for 2024/25 is estimated at 177.5 million bags, up 5.2 percent. This comprises 102.1 million bags of Arabica and 75.4 million bags of Robusta. Global coffee consumption increased 1.4 percent to 175.1 million bags.

annual-review-2024-2025-e.pdf – 19

Institutional Achievements

In December 2024, the ICO was officially granted observer status in the UN General Assembly. Observer status recognizes the Organization relevance and enables it to contribute to international dialogue and policymaking while advocating for the global coffee sector at the highest level.

The G7 recognized coffee as a strategic sector during the Development Ministers Meeting in Pescara, Italy, in October 2024. This recognition will lead to the launch of a Global Coffee Fund aimed at leveraging blended finance solutions to catalyze private investments as outlined in the International Coffee Organization annual report 2024 2025.

Sustainability Initiatives

The Coffee Public-Private Task Force continued its work on living and prosperous income, developing a Process Guide to help Member countries understand coffee farmer incomes and implement collective action.

The Coffee Sustainability Support Database was relaunched in June 2025 with improved interface, currently tracking nearly 500 projects supporting coffee sustainability in areas including climate action, regenerative agriculture, and farmer prosperity.

annual-review-2024-2025-e.pdf – 19

2025/26 Priorities

The report identifies seven strategic priorities: strengthening governance, enhancing data transparency, promoting coffee as part of the solution to global challenges, advancing sustainability, scaling innovation, strengthening partnerships, and elevating coffee in global policy agendas including COP31.

ICO membership currently includes 75 countries, comprising 42 exporting members and 33 importing members. The Organization operates in four official languages: English, French, Spanish, and Portuguese.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the ICO Annual Report?
It is an official document published annually by the International Coffee Organization reviewing global coffee sector performance and institutional developments.

What period does the 2024/25 report cover?
It covers October 2024 to September 2025. The report was released in May 2026. For further context, refer to the International Coffee Organization annual report 2024 2025.

What was the average coffee price according to the report?
The ICO composite indicator averaged 306.6 US cents per pound, a 52 percent increase from the previous year.

What are the key institutional achievements documented?
UN General Assembly observer status and G7 recognition of coffee as a strategic sector.

How many countries are ICO members?
75 countries, including 42 exporting members and 33 importing members.

Author: Qahwa World – Dubai | Source: International Coffee Organization | Date: May 11, 2026

Arabica Coffee Prices Drop on Outlook for Large Brazilian Harvest

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Dubai – Qahwa Word

Arabica coffee futures fell to a two-week low on Thursday, weighed down by growing expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil. These developments have had a significant impact on arabica coffee prices, especially given Brazil’s bumper crop forecasts. Meanwhile, robusta prices edged higher. In fact, arabica coffee prices may fluctuate in response to Brazil bumper crop news.

July arabica coffee (KCN26) settled down 10.60 points, or 3.73%, while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) gained 19 points (+0.56%).

Brazilian Production Forecasts Weigh on Prices
Several recent projections point to a significantly larger Brazilian coffee harvest in 2026/27, putting pressure on arabica markets. Notably, arabica coffee prices are closely tied to Brazil bumper crop expectations, making these forecasts crucial for analysts.

  • The Coffee Trading Academy estimated last Thursday that Brazil’s 2026/27 crop could rise 12% from the previous year to 71.4 million bags. Moreover, fluctuations in arabica coffee prices strongly reflect Brazil’s bumper crop predictions.

  • On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 75.9 million bags, slightly above Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags (a 15.5% year‑on‑year increase).

  • StoneX raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2026/27 production to a record 75.3 million bags on March 12, up from a November forecast of 70.7 million bags. This kind of Brazil bumper crop forecast is a key driver for arabica coffee prices.

StoneX also predicted that the global coffee surplus in 2026 would grow to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025 – the largest surplus in six years. As a result, arabica coffee prices, Brazil, and bumper crop numbers remain intertwined topics for market participants.

Vietnam’s Strong Exports Pressure Robusta
Robusta prices face headwinds from surging Vietnamese shipments. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported on Saturday that the country’s coffee exports from January to April 2026 rose 15.8% year‑on‑year to 810,000 metric tons. For the full year 2025, Vietnamese exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Additionally, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to climb 6% year‑on‑year to a four‑year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

Strait of Hormuz Closure Creates Supply Concerns
The ongoing shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supply chains, supporting prices broadly. Higher shipping rates, insurance premiums, and increased costs for fertilizer and fuel have tightened available supplies, raising expenses for coffee importers and roasters. All these factors can indirectly affect arabica coffee prices, especially if Brazil expects another bumper crop.

Tight Inventories and Lower Brazilian Exports Provide Support
Signs of limited immediate supplies are also underpinning the market:

  • ICE arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 2.5‑month low of 483,292 bags on Thursday. This reduction coincides with a growing focus on Brazil bumper crop forecasts and arabica coffee prices.

  • ICE robusta inventories hit a 16.25‑month low of 3,755 lots last Tuesday.

Brazil’s export figures have also trended lower. On April 14, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports in March fell 10% year‑on‑year to 2.65 million bags. Earlier, on April 7, the country’s Trade Ministry noted that total March coffee exports declined 31% year‑on‑year to 151,000 metric tons. Therefore, arabica coffee prices in Brazil remain sensitive to both export volumes and bumper crop projections. It’s worth noting that Brazil’s bumper crop continues to make arabica coffee prices extremely volatile.

Global Export and Production Outlook
On November 7, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) slipped 0.3% year‑on‑year to 138.658 million bags.

Looking further ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected in its December 18 biannual report that world coffee production in 2025/26 would rise 2.0% year‑on‑year to a record 178.848 million bags. Within that total, arabica production is forecast to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production is expected to increase 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. The global market continues to monitor arabica coffee prices, Brazil, and potential bumper crop impacts for the coming years.

For Brazil, the FAS sees 2025/26 production falling 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is projected to grow 6.2% to a four‑year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast to decrease 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. In summary, arabica coffee prices, Brazil, and the bumper crop outlook will remain central themes for the global coffee market throughout 2026.

Iran War Drives Up Coffee Production Costs and Threatens Future Supply

Posted on by Qahwa World
Dubai – Qahwa World

The ongoing war involving Iran is increasing production costs in the global coffee sector, mainly due to rising fertilizer prices. These higher costs are raising concern among producers, analysts, and financial institutions about future supply and added pressure on smallholder farmers.

Recent industry assessments indicate that the current harvest cycle is mostly secure because key inputs have already been applied. However, the bigger risk is for the 2026/27 season if disruptions continue.

The situation is closely linked to instability in energy and fertilizer markets. The conflict has disrupted trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, an important passage for oil, gas, and agricultural inputs. This has contributed to higher global prices for fuel and fertilizers, both essential for coffee farming.

Fertilizer markets are under strain. Prices for key inputs like urea have increased significantly since the conflict began. Because fertilizer production depends heavily on natural gas, rising energy costs are making the situation worse.

For coffee farmers, especially smallholders, these increases are serious. Fertilizer represents a large part of production costs, and many farmers do not have strong financial protection against price swings. This directly affects their profitability.

In major coffee-producing countries, many growers rely on imported inputs, which makes them vulnerable to global supply shocks. At the same time, they are also dealing with currency changes, climate pressures, and labor shortages.

If the conflict continues to disrupt supply chains and energy markets, coffee production costs may keep rising, which could affect future harvest levels and global coffee supply.

Coffee Prices Get Support from Brazilian Real Strength

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures traded sharply higher today. Arabica coffee rose to its highest level in one week. July arabica gained 3.43 percent. July robusta added 1.5 percent.

A major supporting factor is the strength of the Brazilian real. The currency surged to a two and a quarter year high against the US dollar. A stronger real discourages Brazilian coffee farmers from selling their crops overseas, which pushes prices upward.

Additional support comes from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This disruption has raised global shipping rates, insurance costs, fertilizer and fuel expenses. Coffee importers and roasters now face higher costs, tightening global supplies.

On the negative side, expectations of a large Brazilian coffee crop are limiting gains. The Coffee Trading Academy projected last Thursday that Brazil’s 2026/2027 harvest will increase 12 percent year over year to 71.4 million bags.

On March 19, Marex Group Plc forecast a record Brazilian crop of 75.9 million bags for the same season. That surpassed Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags, which represented a 15.5 percent annual increase. On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags. StoneX also projected the 2026 global coffee surplus would expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025. That would be the largest surplus in six years.

For robusta coffee, soaring exports from Vietnam are a bearish factor. Vietnam is the world’s largest robusta producer. On Saturday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to April 2026 rose 15.8 percent year over year to 810,000 metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5 percent annually to 1.58 million metric tons. In addition, Vietnam’s 2025/2026 coffee production is projected to climb 6 percent year over year to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons, or 29.4 million bags.

Tightness in arabica supplies is supporting prices. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a two and a quarter month low of 494,508 bags on April 21.

Smaller exports from Brazil also help support prices. On April 14, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s March green coffee exports fell 10 percent year over year to 2.65 million bags. On April 7, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that March coffee exports fell 31 percent annually to 151,000 metric tons.

Robusta coffee also sees bullish signs from tighter supplies. ICE robusta inventories fell to a sixteen and a quarter month low of 3,755 lots last Tuesday.

As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year, which runs October through September, fell 0.3 percent year over year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service said in its biannual report on December 18 that world coffee production in 2025/2026 would increase 2.0 percent annually to a record 178.848 million bags. That includes a 4.7 percent decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a 10.9 percent increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags. The USDA forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/2026 coffee production would decline 3.1 percent to 63 million bags. Vietnam’s coffee output would rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. The USDA also forecasts that 2025/2026 ending stocks will fall 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/2025.

illycaffè Reports 12% Revenue Growth in 2025 Amid Record Coffee Prices

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Trieste, Italy — Qahwa World

Italian coffee group illycaffè S.p.A. reported a solid performance for 2025, with group revenue rising 12% to €700 million (approximately US$817.2 million), supported by higher volumes across key markets including Italy, the United States, and Europe.

The company said it achieved its fourth consecutive year of strong organic growth despite a challenging environment marked by record-high green coffee prices and geopolitical uncertainty.

Financial Performance

  • Revenue: €700 million (+12%)
  • EBITDA: €90 million
  • Net profit: €20 million
  • Net financial position: €197 million

illycaffè attributed the financial position to higher raw material costs and continued strategic investments, including acquisitions completed during the year.

Commodity Pressure Remains High

The company highlighted significant pressure from coffee bean prices in 2025. Green coffee averaged 368 cents per pound, around three times the long-term historical average and more than 50% higher than in 2024.

illycaffè said it partially offset inflation through pricing strategies and cost-efficiency measures.

CEO Commentary

CEO Cristina Scocchia said the company maintained strong momentum despite external challenges:

“2025 was the fourth consecutive period of strong organic growth for the company, despite a particularly challenging external environment and the sharp rise in raw material prices.”

She added that the company continued strengthening its position across the value chain through targeted investments and integration.

Regional Performance

  • Italy: +14%
  • Europe: +23%
  • United States: +20% (at constant exchange rates)

The United States remained a strategic priority market for the company.

Strategic Acquisitions

During 2025, illycaffè expanded its operations through two key acquisitions:

  • Full acquisition of Swiss distributor Thalwil AG to strengthen its direct presence in European markets
  • 80% stake acquisition in coffee machine manufacturer Capitani, focused on portioned coffee systems for the home segment

The company said these investments strengthen its integration across the value chain, from production to consumer-facing equipment.

Outlook

illycaffè said it expects 2026 to remain challenging due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. However, it plans to continue supporting growth through international expansion, marketing investment, and sustainable innovation.

Honduran coffee production surges to 5.53 million bags

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IHCAFE forecasts continued growth in 2026/27 supported by plant nutrition, area expansion, and new plantations; exports rise 7.5% but differentiated coffee share drops sharply in early data.
TEGUCIGALPA — Qahwa World

Honduras will produce 5.53 million 60 kilogram bags of coffee in the 2025/26 marketing year, a 6.3 percent increase from the previous cycle, according to the annual coffee report published by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service in Tegucigalpa. Notably, the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 indicates production is then forecast to jump another 9 percent to 6.03 million bags in 2026/27, returning the country to output levels last seen in 2021/22.

The projected growth is driven by improved plant nutrition, favorable biennial production cycles, expansion of productive areas, enhanced pruning and crop management practices, and the maturation of newly established coffee plantations. Planted area is expected to grow by about 3 percent, or 10,000 hectares, in 2025/26, largely due to the introduction of the rust resistant Parainema variety. Furthermore, forecasts for Honduras coffee production in 2026 are shaped by these agronomic improvements and varietal shifts.

Honduras, one of Central America’s leading coffee producers and a top global exporter of Arabica, concentrates its crop in six key regions: Copan, Montecillos, Opalaca, Comayagua, El Paraiso, and Agalta. Elevations range between 1,000 and 1,600 meters above sea level, where Bourbon, Catuaí, Caturra, and Typica thrive. Looking ahead, the production forecast for Honduras coffee in 2026 continues to inform regional agricultural strategies.

Production outlook and leaf rust pressure

As of March 2026, coffee leaf rust incidence increased from 7.57 percent to 8.44 percent nationally, triggering a Level 4 yellow alert. The rise reflects higher lesion counts and leaf damage, supported by favorable environmental conditions and the unrestricted movement of harvest workers. Despite localized pressures, overall national rust levels remain relatively contained due to dry season conditions in major producing regions. This has important implications for the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026, since disease pressure can impact yields.

Table 1: Honduras coffee production & export forecasts (million 60 kg bags)
Marketing year Production Exports Ending stocks
MY 2023/24 (actual) 5.00 4.77 0.081
MY 2024/25 (revised) 5.20 4.96 0.178
MY 2025/26 (forecast) 5.53 5.03 0.435
MY 2026/27 (projection) 6.03 5.50 0.707
Table 2: Coffee leaf rust incidence by selected departments (March 2026)
Department Incidence (%)
Comayagua 14.08%
Cortes 12.49%
Santa Bárbara 11.17%
Yoro 10.08%
El Paraíso 9.81%
Intibucá 9.27%
Copán 6.76%

Earlier survey data from April 2025 indicated that 16.67 percent of sampled farms had medium rust incidence (5 to 10 percent), 7.80 percent had high incidence (10 to 15 percent), and 21.63 percent recorded very high incidence above 15 percent. Approximately 5 percent of the current crop remained unharvested as of March 2026, while 44 percent was still in the supply chain awaiting export or processing. This context is significant for anyone examining the country’s 2026 coffee production forecast in Honduras.

Prices, Brazil and market volatility

As of late March 2026, coffee reference prices have shown downward pressure, driven by improved global supply expectations and forecasts of a large Brazilian harvest. While prices have eased from early 2026 highs, they remain volatile. Retail prices have not yet adjusted significantly, reflecting typical lags due to contracts and inventories. In summary, the Honduras coffee production outlook for 2026 is closely tied to international price volatility and market forces.

Weather risks in Brazil, including the potential for early frosts in key producing regions, may place upward pressure on global prices in 2026. However, continued market volatility and rising production costs — including higher diesel prices and fertilizer supply uncertainty linked to the Persian Gulf conflict — may constrain producer margins. Price developments will depend on frost events in Brazil between May and July 2026, crop performance in Vietnam and Colombia, and currency movements, especially the BRL USD exchange rate. Meanwhile, these variables are monitored by analysts as they project the 2026 Honduras coffee production forecast.

Exports grow 7.5%, average price eases

Honduran coffee exports are projected to reach 5.03 million bags in 2025/26, a 7.47 percent increase from the revised 4.96 million bags in 2024/25. For 2026/27, exports are forecast to rise another 9 percent to 5.50 million bags. As of April 2026, Honduras had already exported 3.17 million bags, a 38 percent increase from 2.30 million bags during the same period in 2024/25. The average export price was $439.47 per 60 kg bag, a 2.70 percent decrease from $451.70, but total export value jumped 33 percent to $1.39 billion. These impressive results play a pivotal role in shaping the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 and future export trends.

Sales contracts for 2025/26 totaled 4.10 million bags, up 27 percent year on year. Honduras has expanded market access, including under its free trade agreement with South Korea, now the eleventh largest export market for coffee. Globally, Honduras ranks as the eighth largest coffee exporter, the third largest in the Americas, and the largest in Central America. Finally, the Honduras coffee production forecast 2026 continues to be an important reference for market participants and policy decisions.

Table 3: Top destinations for Honduran green coffee exports (2025, thousand 60 kg bags)
Country Volume (1,000 bags)
United States 1,476
Germany 983
Belgium 551
Italy 231
Japan 186
Canada 229
Sweden 149
United Kingdom 147

Domestic consumption and rising imports

Coffee consumption in Honduras is projected to increase 9 percent in 2026/27, supported by modest GDP growth of 3.8 to 4 percent. Per capita apparent consumption is estimated at 4 to 5 kilograms per year. The growing presence of coffee bars in shopping malls, gas stations, and supermarkets, along with a young population consuming diverse coffee drinks, drives demand. Keurig coffee pods and machines are a new trend sold at supermarket chains. It is clear that changing consumption patterns also play into the nation’s coffee production forecast 2026 for Honduras.

Despite being a major producer, Honduras imports coffee to meet domestic demand for soluble coffee and lower cost blends. Total imports are projected to reach 160,000 bags in 2026/27, up 16.8 percent from 137,000 bags in 2025/26. In 2024/25, green coffee bean imports totaled 96,216 bags, primarily from Nicaragua (91,731 bags). Soluble coffee imports from October 2024 through February 2025 reached 30,992 bags, up from 27,516 bags the previous year. Key suppliers included Mexico, the United States, Colombia, Guatemala, India, Malaysia, and Costa Rica. Market dynamics that affect imports are increasingly relevant for the Honduras coffee production forecast looking ahead to 2026.

Differentiated coffee: a sharp shift in early 2025/26

During the 2024/25 harvest, 2.6 million 60 kg bags of differentiated coffee (certified and specialty) were sold, accounting for 55 percent of total exports. The five leading certifications were UTZ, Organic, Fair Trade/Organic, 4C, and Rainforest Alliance. However, preliminary data for 2025/26 shows a significant decline: differentiated coffee fell to 37 percent of total volume, or 1.24 million bags exported to date. This 15 percentage point drop may reflect timing of shipments, production challenges, or evolving market dynamics. Final figures will determine if this is a temporary fluctuation or a sustained trend. The results for differentiated segments will ultimately affect 2026 Honduras coffee production forecast calculations.

Table 4: Differentiated coffee production (thousand 60 kg bags, harvest seasons)
Harvest season Differentiated coffee Total harvest % participation
2019/20 3,020 5,506 55%
2020/21 3,220 5,873 55%
2021/22 2,523 4,701 54%
2022/23 3,087 5,342 58%
2023/24 2,610 4,687 56%
2024/25 2,436 4,804 52%
2025/26* 1,242 3,325 37%
* preliminary figures to April 2026. Source: IHCAFE

Specialty coffee in Honduras is typically grown above 3,000 feet. Currently, specialty coffees are produced under 22 programs including UTZ, 4C, Rainforest Alliance, Organic, Bird Friendly, Starbucks C.A.F.E. Practices, and Cup of Excellence. The overall quality of exported coffee in 2025/26 was classified as 49 percent Strictly High Grown (SHG), 43 percent High Grade (HG), and 9 percent Standard Grade (STD). With specialty coffee trends evolving, analysts will adjust the Honduras coffee production and exports forecast for 2026 accordingly.

Table 5: Quality exports in MY 2025/26 (60 kg bags, to date)
Quality grade Volume (bags) Average price (USD) Share of volume
SHG (Strictly High Grown) 1,618,979 $440.19 49%
HG (High Grade) 1,420,051 $448.27 43%
SL (Screen size >18) 286,479 $361.44 9%

Small producers and policy support

Many small and medium coffee producers face financial constraints, with limited access to credit. According to IHCAFE data for 2024/25, 86,895 small farmers harvested 179,271 hectares and produced 2.63 million bags. Medium producers (6,359 farmers) produced 1.66 million bags, and 374 large farmers produced 515,533 bags. Their contributions are notable in the broader context of the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026.

Table 6: Producers by size, area harvested and production (2024/25)
Farmer type Farmers registered Area harvested (Ha) Production (60 kg bags)
Small 86,895 179,271 2,627,164
Medium 6,359 85,040 1,661,733
Large 374 21,246 515,533

The government has implemented several measures to support the sector, including a sales tax exemption on coffee (Decree 352 2022) that provides fiscal relief of approximately $183 million. IHCAFE’s “Renew without stopping Production” program supports 33,000 producers covering 250,000 blocks. A climate change policy aims to foster resilience through six five year phases from 2022 to 2050. The National Coffee Council, the highest regulatory body, guides policy on production, climate change, labor, and gender inclusion. The sector adopted a Gender Inclusion Policy in 2021. Policy initiatives such as these directly impact Honduras coffee production forecasts for 2026 and beyond.

As of March 2026, IHCAFE continues providing technical support to help growers meet the European Union Deforestation Regulation, aiming to reduce deforestation tied to agricultural production and foster environmentally responsible supply chains. Overall, actions to comply with international standards also influence the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 as the industry adapts to global changes.

Methodological note: All figures are based on the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report “Coffee Annual – Tegucigalpa – Honduras – HO2026-0002” published April 29, 2026. Marketing years (MY) run from October to September. Differentiated coffee includes certified and specialty coffees. No data from outside the report has been used. Projections for MY 2026/27 are preliminary and subject to revision.

 

Russians Shift to Home Coffee as Prices Rise

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Moscow – Qahwa World

Rising prices are reshaping how Russians consume coffee, pushing more people away from takeaway purchases and toward brewing at home. A trend that began to emerge in 2025 has strengthened in 2026 and is now influencing the broader coffee market.

According to Ramaz Chanturia, head of the Roschaikofe association, consumers are increasingly opting out of buying coffee to go and instead preparing it themselves. The shift is largely driven by a need to reduce everyday spending. Coffee shop purchases are no longer seen as a routine necessity but as a discretionary expense. Many people now prepare their drinks in advance and carry them in reusable thermal mugs.

Market data reflects this change. In early 2026, takeaway coffee sales declined in volume compared to the previous year, while revenue increased. This indicates that consumers are buying fewer cups but paying more per purchase. The pattern suggests price pressure and reduced purchase frequency rather than declining interest in coffee itself.

The price increase is driven by global factors. Supply challenges in key producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam, combined with rising logistics and operating costs, are pushing prices higher. Forecasts suggest that the average price of a cup of coffee in Russia could reach 500 to 600 rubles by the end of 2026.

At the same time, the home coffee segment is expanding. Sales of coffee beans, grinders, and home brewing equipment are rising as consumers invest in making their own drinks. Improvements in home coffee technology have made it easier to achieve consistent results, allowing consumers to produce quality coffee without visiting a café. While professional baristas still offer a higher level of expertise, the difference is no longer significant enough for many people to justify the extra cost.

Despite these shifts, coffee remains an essential part of daily life. Industry experts describe it as a lifestyle product with strong emotional value, closely tied to routines and personal habits. As a result, consumers are more likely to cut back on other expenses than to give up coffee entirely.

The market is not shrinking but evolving. Consumption is moving from cafés into homes, creating a new pattern of behavior. Russia’s coffee culture is adapting to economic pressures, changing its format while maintaining its importance in everyday life.

Global Coffee Prices Fall as Brazil Crop Outlook Signals Oversupply

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Global coffee prices declined at the start of the week as expectations of strong supply weighed on market sentiment, particularly with Brazil’s harvest approaching.

Arabica coffee had already fallen to its lowest level in several weeks, pressured by forecasts pointing to a potentially record-breaking Brazilian crop for the 2026/27 season. Analysts from multiple firms have raised their production estimates, with projections suggesting output could exceed 75 million bags. If realized, this would mark a significant increase from the previous season and reinforce expectations of abundant supply.

The global balance is also shifting. Current estimates indicate that the coffee market could move into a much larger surplus in 2026, compared to a relatively modest surplus the year before. This outlook has contributed to the recent downward trend in prices.

Vietnam is adding further pressure to the market. As the world’s leading robusta producer, the country has reported rising export volumes in early 2026, continuing the strong performance seen last year. Production is also expected to increase, reaching a multi-year high and boosting global robusta availability.

Despite the broader bearish outlook, some factors are offering limited support to prices. Robusta inventories monitored by exchanges have recently dropped to their lowest level in over a year, indicating tighter short-term supply.

There are also ongoing concerns about global trade conditions. Higher shipping and logistics costs continue to affect the coffee sector, increasing expenses for exporters and roasters and adding uncertainty to supply chains.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s recent export data shows a decline compared to the same period last year, suggesting a temporary tightening in available shipments even as larger future harvests are anticipated.

Looking ahead, global coffee production for the 2025/26 season is still expected to reach a record level. While arabica output may see a slight decrease, robusta production is forecast to rise significantly, helping to balance overall supply. Ending stocks are projected to decline modestly, indicating that while supply is strong, stock levels may not increase dramatically.

Trump Tariffs Reshape Global Coffee Trade

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Tariff policies introduced during 2025 have contributed to significant shifts in the global coffee trade, pushing industry players to rethink supply chains and accelerate structural changes across the sector.

In 2025, broad tariff measures were imposed on imports of green coffee beans and roasting equipment. The initial rate started at around 10%, but in some cases increased substantially on major coffee-producing countries such as Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Mexico.

These measures were not applied consistently over time. Later adjustments, exemptions, and partial rollbacks were introduced following trade negotiations and policy revisions, including relief for certain agricultural goods that are not domestically produced, such as coffee. Despite this, the early phase of the tariffs had already created noticeable disruption.

The impact included higher roasted coffee prices in certain markets, shifts in export flows, and widespread instability across global supply chains.

  • Supply Chain Disruption

The changes exposed how sensitive the global coffee system is to trade policy shifts. Key developments included:

A decline in exports from Brazil to the United States, with redirected shipments toward Asia and the Middle East
Increased tariff pressure on exports from Vietnam, Indonesia, and Mexico, pushing buyers to search for alternative origins
Rising costs for coffee equipment such as grinders and espresso machines due to import dependencies

Frequent policy changes made long-term planning difficult, increasing operational uncertainty and raising costs across the supply chain.

  • Beyond Beans: Equipment and Infrastructure

The impact was not limited to green coffee. Imported roasting and café equipment also became more expensive, increasing the cost of opening or upgrading coffee shops.

This added pressure came on top of ongoing global supply chain disruptions, including higher raw material costs and shipping delays in recent years.

  • Market Adaptation Strategies

As costs rose, market participants explored different ways to adapt, including:

Rerouting shipments through countries with lower tariff exposure
Reclassifying origin within multi-stage production chains
Establishing roasting and packaging operations in third countries to alter customs classification

Large multinational companies were generally better positioned to implement such strategies due to capital availability and infrastructure flexibility.

  • Historical Context of Coffee Trade Workarounds

Attempts to bypass trade restrictions are not new in coffee history. Over centuries, coffee spread globally through a mix of legal trade, secrecy, and strategic relocation of plants and beans.

Historical examples include:

Early movement of coffee cultivation from its origin regions into Asia and the Americas through controlled and often restricted transfers
The spread of coffee plants to Southeast Asia and Latin America via maritime trade routes in earlier centuries
Historical episodes in Europe where coffee was heavily taxed or restricted, leading to informal trade networks and enforcement efforts

These patterns show that trade restrictions have historically encouraged alternative distribution channels.

  • Shifting Global Demand

Several broader trends accelerated during this period:

Growth in coffee consumption in Asia and the Middle East
Expansion of domestic consumption in producing countries
Increasing focus on supply diversification by major importers
Stronger regulatory attention in some markets on sustainability and climate-related sourcing

Together, these shifts suggest a gradual rebalancing of global coffee consumption and trade flows.

  • Uncertain Long-Term Outcomes

The long-term effects of these tariff-related disruptions remain unclear. Some analysts expect elevated price levels to persist even after policy normalization, due to accumulated supply chain inefficiencies.

While tariffs are often intended to support domestic industries, the observed effects in many cases have included:

Increased costs for importers and roasters, particularly smaller businesses
Higher consumer prices in retail and café markets
Reduced supply chain efficiency due to rerouting and compliance complexity
Limited direct benefit to producers in developing countries in many cases

Larger companies have generally been better able to absorb shocks, potentially contributing to greater consolidation within the industry.

  • Conclusion

The tariff developments of 2025 may represent a turning point in the global coffee trade system. Combined with shifting consumption patterns, rising new markets, and evolving supply chain strategies, the industry appears to be entering a new structural phase.

The key question moving forward is whether these changes will lead to a more resilient and balanced global coffee economy, or further concentrate influence among large multinational players.

Coffee has always moved across borders in response to economic and political pressure. Once again, it is adapting—reshaping itself along with the global systems that depend on it.

Iran War Drives Coffee Prices Higher as Supply Risks Intensify

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures rose sharply on Wednesday, hitting a 3.5-week high as markets reacted to escalating disruptions linked to the Iran war and concerns over global supply chains.

The main driver of the rally was growing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route. Traders fear that prolonged conflict could keep the passage restricted, pushing up shipping costs, insurance premiums, fuel expenses, and overall logistics costs for coffee exporters and importers.

At the same time, tightness in robusta supply added upward pressure on prices, with ICE inventories recently falling to their lowest level in more than a year.

However, the broader market picture remains mixed. Arabica coffee had recently slipped to a seven-week low due to expectations of a very large Brazilian crop, with multiple forecasts pointing to a record harvest in the 2026/27 season. Larger projected global surpluses in the coming year are also seen as a long-term limiting factor for prices.

On the supply side, Vietnam continues to support global availability through strong export volumes, reflecting higher production levels in the world’s largest robusta-producing country. Meanwhile, Brazil’s export figures have shown recent declines compared with last year, and uneven rainfall in key growing regions is raising some concern about yield stability.

Longer-term projections from agricultural agencies still point to rising global production, particularly in robusta coffee, while arabica output is expected to decline. Even so, global ending stocks are forecast to tighten slightly in future seasons.

Overall, coffee markets are being pulled between short-term geopolitical disruption linked to the Iran war and longer-term expectations of strong global supply growth.

Record Brazil Crop Expectations Weigh on Coffee Prices Despite Supply Tightness

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee markets are drifting lower, weighed down by mounting expectations of a very large crop in Brazil, even as supply-side tensions prevent sharper declines.

Arabica futures have slipped to their weakest levels in several weeks, reflecting growing confidence among analysts that Brazil’s next harvest could reach record territory. Forecasts from firms such as Marex Group, Sucafina, and StoneX all point toward a historically large 2026/27 crop clustered in the mid-70 million bag range. If realized, that would mark a significant year-on-year increase and help expand the global coffee surplus.

The supply outlook is also being shaped by developments in Vietnam, the world’s leading robusta producer. Export volumes have surged, with early-year shipments showing strong annual growth. Production is likewise expected to rise, potentially reaching a multi-year high, adding further pressure on prices.

Yet the market narrative is not entirely bearish. Tight inventories are offering some support, particularly for robusta, where exchange-monitored stockpiles have dropped to their lowest level in over a year, highlighting ongoing short-term supply constraints.

Geopolitical tensions are adding another layer of complexity. Disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up freight and insurance costs, complicating global trade flows and increasing expenses for coffee importers and roasters.

Meanwhile, export data from Cecafé and Brazil’s trade authorities show a decline in March shipments compared to last year, lending some support to prices. Weather concerns also persist in key regions such as Minas Gerais, where below-average rainfall could still impact yields.

Global institutions, including the International Coffee Organization and the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, continue to point to a nuanced outlook: overall production may rise, but with diverging trends between arabica and robusta, and tightening stock levels.

Taken together, the coffee market is navigating a delicate balance between expectations of abundant future supply and the realities of present-day constraints.