Coffee Prices Sharply Higher as Brazil’s Harvest Is Delayed

Posted on July 28, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa Wold
Date: July 27, 2026

Coffee Prices Sharply Higher as Brazil’s Harvest Is Delayed

September arabica rose 3.43% and robusta gained 1.12% on Monday.
32.4 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais last week—2,700% above the historical average.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is only 64% complete, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% average.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags.
USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27.
El Niño risks continue to support prices with potential impacts on Brazil’s flowering.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots.

Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Monday. September arabica closed up 10.75 cents, gaining 3.43%. September robusta closed up 42 points, a rise of 1.12%. The surge came amid concerns that heavy rain in Brazil will further disrupt the coffee harvest.

Somar Meteorologia reported 32.4 mm of rain in Minas Gerais for the week ended July 26. This represents 2,700% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region.

Harvest Delays Support Coffee Prices

The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is supporting prices. Harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 47.3% complete as of July 17. This is behind the year-earlier pace of 59%. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%.

Heavy rainfall in recent weeks has disrupted harvesting operations. Coffee quality may also be affected. Brazilian farmers continue to hold back sales, hoping for higher prices.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of July 17)	47.3%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	59%
Brazil overall (as of July 15)	64%
Previous year (July 15)	77%
Five-year average (July 15)	70%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended July 26)	32.4 mm (2,700% of average)

USDA Forecast and Market Reaction

Last Friday, coffee prices tumbled to 3-week lows. This followed the USDA’s forecast last Wednesday that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags. The increase is mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.

The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year. However, robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast a record Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags for 2026/27, up 14% year-on-year.

**Key Price Drivers for Coffee**
Factor	Impact	Details
Brazil rainfall	Bullish	32.4 mm rain, 2,700% above average, disrupting harvest
Harvest progress	Bullish	64% complete vs. 77% last year and 70% average
Arabica inventories	Bullish	2.5-year low of 292,810 bags
USDA production forecast	Bearish	Record 189.7 million bags globally
Robusta inventories	Bearish	4.25-month high of 4,254 lots
El Niño risks	Bullish	Potential impact on flowering in September-October

Inventory Trends Support Arabica, Weigh on Robusta

Rising inventories are weighing on robusta coffee. ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots last Wednesday. They were mildly below that level at 4,228 lots on Monday.

By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags on Monday. This tight supply situation supports higher arabica prices.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil. This September and October is when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop.

On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Bearish Factors to Consider

Despite the bullish momentum, several bearish factors exist. Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On July 3, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to June rose 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.

The USDA’s record production forecast also weighs on the market. However, the supply tightening due to harvest delays and El Niño risks may offset these bearish factors.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise on Monday?September arabica gained 3.43% and September robusta rose 1.12% on Monday, July 27.

What is driving the price increase?Heavy rain in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region—32.4 mm, 2,700% above average—is disrupting the coffee harvest and tightening supplies.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% five-year average.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags, while robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year, led by Brazil’s recovery.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

Delays to Brazil’s Harvest Push Coffee Prices Higher

Posted on July 21, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 20, 2026

Delays to Brazil’s Harvest Push Coffee Prices Higher

September arabica rose 1.33% and robusta gained 0.18% on Monday.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is only 64% complete, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% average.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 3.75-month high of 4,239 lots.
Arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 329,870 bags.
Heavy rains in Brazil have disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered crop quality.
El Niño concerns continue to support prices with potential impacts on Brazil’s flowering.
Only 0.2 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais last week, 20% of the historical average.

Coffee prices moved higher on Monday. September arabica closed up 4.25 cents, gaining 1.33%. September robusta closed up 7 points, a rise of 0.18%. The gains came amid delays in Brazil’s coffee harvest.

Safras & Mercado reported the harvest is 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%. The slow pace continues to support prices.

Harvest Delays Drive Coffee Prices Higher

Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is progressing slowly. Heavy rains have disrupted fieldwork. These rains may have also lowered crop quality. Brazilian farmers are holding back on sales. They hope prices will rise further. They are also bracing for potential El Niño impacts.

On July 6, arabica soared to a 5.75-month high. On July 7, robusta also hit a 5.75-month high. However, prices have since whipsawed in a wide range. Trading conditions remain illiquid. This has led to volatile price moves.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress (as of July 15)**
Period	Completion
Current year (2026/27)	64%
Previous year (2025/26)	77%
Five-year average	70%

Margin Hikes Reduce Liquidity

ICE raised margin requirements for coffee futures recently. This action has dried up liquidity. Many commodity funds have closed their positions. The result has been excessive one-way price moves. Volatility has been amplified by the illiquid conditions.

This has created a challenging trading environment. Prices have moved sharply in both directions. Market participants should expect continued volatility in the near term.

Inventory Trends Support Prices

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months. This is supportive for coffee prices. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 329,870 bags on Monday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low on May 15. However, they have since risen to a 3.75-month high of 4,239 lots on Monday.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	329,870 bags	2.25-year low
Robusta inventories (May 15)	3,631 lots	2-year low
Robusta inventories (current)	4,239 lots	3.75-month high

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil. This September and October is when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop.

On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that only 0.2 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais in the week through July 19. This is Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region. This represents only 20% of the historical average. The dry conditions add to market concerns.

Bearish Factors to Consider

Despite the bullish momentum, several bearish factors exist. Recent strength in Brazil’s coffee exports is negative for prices. Last Wednesday, Cecafe reported Brazil’s June green coffee exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year to 2.64 million bags.

Vietnam’s soaring coffee exports are also bearish for robusta prices. On July 3, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported coffee exports from January to June rose 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projected record global production. World coffee production in 2025/26 is forecast to increase 2% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags. Robusta production is projected to rise 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

**Global Supply Forecasts (USDA)**
Category	Forecast	Change
World coffee production 2025/26	178.848 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica production	95.515 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta production	83.333 million bags	+10.9%
Brazil 2025/26 production	63 million bags	-3.1%
Vietnam 2025/26 output	30.8 million bags	+6.2%
Ending stocks 2025/26	20.148 million bags	-5.4%

Technical Perspective

On June 9, arabica coffee fell to a 20.5-month nearest-futures low. Robusta slid to a 3.5-month low. This occurred amid an outlook for a bumper coffee crop in Brazil. However, prices have since recovered significantly. The market remains highly volatile with significant upside potential.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise on Monday?September arabica gained 1.33% and September robusta rose 0.18% on Monday, July 20.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% five-year average.

Why are ICE coffee inventories important?Low inventories reduce available supply and support higher prices. Arabica inventories recently hit a 2.25-year low.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño can delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields.

What was the rainfall in Minas Gerais last week?Only 0.2 mm of rain fell, representing just 20% of the historical average, raising concerns about dry conditions.

What is the global production forecast?USDA forecasts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, with robusta up 10.9% and arabica down 4.7%.

Coffee Prices Jump on Slow Brazil Harvest

Posted on July 18, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 17, 2026

Coffee Prices Jump on Slow Brazil Harvest

September arabica rose 2.46% and robusta gained 2.11% on Friday.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is only 64% complete, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% average.
ICE raised margin requirements twice last week, reducing liquidity and amplifying volatility.
Heavy rains in Brazil have disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered crop quality.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 332,945 bags.
El Niño concerns continue to support prices with potential impacts on Brazil’s flowering.
Brazil’s June green coffee exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year to 2.64 million bags.

Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Friday. September arabica closed up 7.70 cents, gaining 2.46%. September robusta closed up 80 points, a rise of 2.11%. The rally came amid delays in Brazil’s coffee harvest.

Safras & Mercado reported the harvest is 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%. The slow pace continues to support prices.

Harvest Delays Drive Coffee Prices Higher

Last Monday, arabica soared to a 5.5-month high. Last Tuesday, robusta also hit a 5.5-month high. However, prices have since whipsawed in a wide range. Trading conditions remain illiquid. This has led to volatile price moves.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress (as of July 15)**
Period	Completion
Current year (2026/27)	64%
Previous year (2025/26)	77%
Five-year average	70%

Margin Hikes Reduce Liquidity

ICE raised margin requirements for coffee futures twice last week. This action has dried up liquidity. Many commodity funds have closed their positions. The result has been excessive one-way price moves. Volatility has been amplified by the illiquid conditions.

This has created a challenging trading environment. Prices have moved sharply in both directions. Market participants should expect continued volatility in the near term.

Inventory Trends Support Coffee Prices

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months. This is supportive for coffee prices. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 332,945 bags on Friday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low on May 15. However, they have since risen to a 3.5-month high of 4,220 lots.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	332,945 bags	2.25-year low
Robusta inventories (May 15)	3,631 lots	2-year low
Robusta inventories (current)	4,220 lots	3.5-month high

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Last Wednesday, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Somar Meteorologia reported no rain fell in Minas Gerais in the week through July 5. This is Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region. The dry conditions add to market concerns.

Bearish Factors to Consider

Despite the bullish momentum, several bearish factors exist. Recent strength in Brazil’s coffee exports is negative for prices. On Thursday, Cecafe reported Brazil’s June green coffee exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year to 2.64 million bags.

Fund positioning also poses risks. Last Friday’s COT data showed funds boosted their long positions in robusta by 5,607 contracts in the week ended July 7. This brought net-long positions to 44,195, the most in more than two years. Such concentrated long positions can accelerate price declines if investors begin to unwind.

**Global Supply Forecasts (USDA)**
Category	Forecast	Change
World coffee production 2025/26	178.848 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica production	95.515 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta production	83.333 million bags	+10.9%
Brazil 2025/26 production	63 million bags	-3.1%
Vietnam 2025/26 output	30.8 million bags	+6.2%
Ending stocks 2025/26	20.148 million bags	-5.4%

Technical Perspective

On June 9, arabica coffee fell to a 20.25-month nearest-futures low. Robusta slid to a 3.25-month low. This occurred amid an outlook for a bumper coffee crop in Brazil. However, prices have since recovered significantly. The market remains highly volatile with significant upside potential.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise on Friday?September arabica gained 2.46% and September robusta rose 2.11% on Friday, July 17.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% five-year average.

Why are ICE coffee inventories important?Low inventories reduce available supply and support higher prices. Arabica inventories recently hit a 2.25-year low.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño can delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields.

What is the fund positioning in robusta coffee?Funds held 44,195 net-long positions as of July 7, the highest level in more than two years, increasing downside risk.

What is the global production forecast?USDA forecasts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, with robusta up 10.9% and arabica down 4.7%.

Robusta Coffee Rallies on Vietnam Dry Weather

Posted on May 23, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World
Source: Barchart (Rich Asplund)
Date: May 23, 2026

Robusta Coffee Rallies on Vietnam Dry Weather

Executive Summary:

July robusta coffee closed up 1.68 percent on Friday, while July arabica fell 0.38 percent.
Dry weather in Vietnam’s Central Highlands raised concerns about the robusta crop, with forecasters calling for more rain to aid cherry growth.
El Niño weather patterns may delay rains in Brazil during flowering season (September-October), potentially hurting the 2026/27 crop.
NOAA estimates an 82 percent chance of El Niño conditions between May and July, with a 67 percent chance of a Super El Niño.
ICE robusta inventories recovered to a 6 week high of 3,968 lots on Friday, while arabica inventories fell to a 3 month low.
Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags, supporting prices.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global coffee supplies, adding bullish pressure.

Coffee prices settled mixed on Friday, May 22, 2026. July robusta coffee futures closed up 1.68 percent, rising sharply amid dry weather in Vietnam that is raising concerns about the country’s robusta coffee crop. July arabica coffee futures closed down 0.38 percent.

Weather forecaster Vaisala reported that recent showers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s main growing region, have been spotty. More rain is needed to aid cherry growth. This supply concern helped drive robusta prices higher.

El Niño Risks and Brazil Crop Outlook

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are also supporting prices. Coffee trader Commercial said El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, potentially damaging the 2026/27 coffee crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82 percent probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year, with a 67 percent chance of a Super El Niño.

Despite these risks, larger Brazilian crop forecasts have weighed on arabica prices. On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest will increase 12 percent year on year to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group projected a record Brazilian crop of 75.9 million bags.

On March 12, StoneX raised its estimate to a record 75.3 million bags. StoneX also projected the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the largest surplus in six years.

Vietnam Exports and Inventory Trends

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first four months of 2026 rose 15.8 percent year on year to 810,000 metric tons.

Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to climb 6 percent to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past two months, which is supportive of coffee prices. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots last Friday but recovered to a six week high of 3,968 lots on Friday. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a three month low of 449,567 bags on Friday.

Key Market Data

Indicator	Value
July robusta coffee close (May 22)	Up 1.68%
July arabica coffee close (May 22)	Down 0.38%
Vietnam coffee exports (Jan-Apr 2026)	810,000 MT (+15.8% y/y)
ICE robusta inventories (May 22)	3,968 lots (6 week high)
ICE arabica inventories (May 22)	449,567 bags (3 month low)
Brazil April green coffee exports	2.76 million bags (-1.3% y/y)
El Niño probability (NOAA)	82% between May-July, 67% Super El Niño

Other Market Factors

Smaller exports from Brazil are supportive of coffee prices. Last Tuesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has increased shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, raising costs for importers and roasters.

As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3 percent year on year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA Foreign Agriculture Service bi-annual report of December 18 projected world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase 2.0 percent year on year to a record 178.848 million bags, with a 4.7 percent decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a 10.9 percent increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags.

The USDA forecast Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will decline 3.1 percent to 63 million bags and Vietnam’s output will rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to fall 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why did robusta coffee prices rally on Friday?

Robusta rallied on dry weather concerns in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, where spotty rains raised worries about cherry development.

2. What is the El Niño risk for Brazil coffee?

El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, the typical flowering period, potentially hurting the 2026/27 coffee crop.

3. How much did Vietnam’s coffee exports increase?

Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 15.8 percent in the first four months of 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.

4. What happened to ICE coffee inventories?

Robusta inventories recovered to a six week high of 3,968 lots, while arabica inventories fell to a three month low of 449,567 bags.

5. How did Brazil’s April coffee exports perform?

Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags.

6. What is the global coffee production forecast for 2025/26?

The USDA projects record world production of 178.848 million bags, with arabica down 4.7 percent and robusta up 10.9 percent.

Qahwa World – Based on Barchart commodity bulletin by Rich Asplund.
Published: May 23, 2026

Coffee Prices Fall Sharply as Brazilian Real Weakens

Posted on May 16, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart | Author: Qahwa World | Date: May 15, 2026 Coffee Prices are the focus of this article.

July arabica coffee fell 3.12% to a nine-month low, while July robusta declined 3.58% during Friday trading.
The Brazilian real dropped to a five-week low against the U.S. dollar, prompting domestic producers to accelerate export sales.
Multiple industry analysts forecast a significant year-over-year increase for Brazil’s upcoming 2026/27 harvest, reaching up to 75.9 million bags.
Forecasters expect the global coffee surplus to expand dramatically to 10 million bags in 2026, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025.
Tight ICE inventories provided early-week support before supply pressure reversed market gains.
Vietnam expanded coffee exports by 15.8% year over year from January to April 2026, adding further bearish weight to robusta prices.
Ongoing shipping disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz raise international concerns regarding elevated freight and insurance expenses.

Coffee prices moved sharply lower on Friday, with July arabica coffee falling 3.12% and July robusta declining 3.58%. Arabica futures dropped to a nine-month low, while robusta reached a one-week low. A major factor behind the decline was weakness in Brazil’s currency, which significantly shifted market dynamics at the close of the week.

The Brazilian real fell to a five-week low against the U.S. dollar, encouraging Brazilian producers to increase export sales. A weaker real typically makes Brazilian coffee more competitive in global markets. Consequently, this currency movement put heavy downward pressure on international prices as supply availability accelerated.

Larger Brazilian Crop Expectations Pressure the Market

Forecasts for Brazil’s upcoming coffee harvest continue to weigh heavily on market sentiment. The Coffee Trading Academy recently projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop at 71.4 million bags, representing a 12% increase year over year. However, other major market projections indicate even higher numbers for the upcoming season.

Forecasting Institution	Projected 2026/27 Crop Size	Market Notes
Marex Group	75.9 million bags	Projected record-high harvest
Sucafina	75.4 million bags	Indicates strong export potential
StoneX	75.3 million bags	Raised from the previous estimate of 70.7 million bags
Coffee Trading Academy	71.4 million bags	Up 12% compared to the prior year

Furthermore, StoneX expects the global coffee surplus to expand to 10 million bags in 2026. This figure marks a sharp increase from the 1.8 million bags recorded in 2025. If realized, this expansion will represent the largest global surplus seen in the coffee industry in six years.

Tight ICE Inventories and Shipping Conditions

Despite the overall bearish outlook, tight exchange inventories provided some support earlier in the week. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots, while ICE arabica inventories declined to a two-and-a-half-month low of 471,831 bags. These lower stock levels helped robusta reach a seven-week high and arabica a one-week high before prices reversed lower.

Meanwhile, Brazilian export data offered limited support to the market. Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3% year over year to 2.76 million bags. Additionally, reports of continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns about global shipping costs. Higher freight, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs could increase long-term expenses for coffee importers and roasters worldwide.

Vietnam’s Rising Exports Pressure Robusta Prices

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continues to expand its exports and total production. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office, coffee exports during January–April 2026 rose 15.8% year over year to 810,000 metric tons. This follows full-year 2025 exports, which increased 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons.

Furthermore, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to rise 6% to 1.76 million metric tons, which is equivalent to 29.4 million bags. The steady increase in Vietnamese supply remains a primary bearish factor for global robusta prices.

Global Production Expected to Reach Record Levels

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts global coffee production in 2025/26 will rise 2% year over year to a record 178.8 million bags. Market trends vary by region and coffee type, as outlined by the international agency data.

Region or Coffee Variety	Production Forecast (2025/26)	Year-over-Year Change
Global Arabica Production	95.5 million bags	Down 4.7%
Global Robusta Production	83.3 million bags	Up 10.9%
Brazil Production Total	63.0 million bags	Down 3.1%
Vietnam Production Total	30.8 million bags	Up 6.2% (four-year high)

The Foreign Agricultural Service also forecasts that global ending stocks will decline 5.4% to 20.1 million bags in 2025/26. While ending stocks show a slight contraction, the massive production volumes from major growing hubs continue to dictate the downward path of exchange prices.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: Why did coffee prices decline significantly at the end of the week?

A1: Prices fell because the Brazilian real weakened against the U.S. dollar, which incentivized Brazilian coffee producers to increase their export sales to international markets.

Q2: What are the crop expectations for Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest?

A2: Analysts project a very large harvest. Estimates range from 71.4 million bags from the Coffee Trading Academy up to a record 75.9 million bags from Marex Group.

Q3: How large is the projected global coffee surplus for 2026?

A3: StoneX projects that the global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags in 2026, a major increase from the 1.8 million bags seen in 2025.

Q4: What role do Vietnam’s export numbers play in the robusta market?

A4: Vietnam increased its coffee exports by 15.8% during January–April 2026. This rising supply continues to apply downward price pressure specifically on robusta futures.

Q5: What logistical challenges are currently affecting the global coffee supply chain?

A5: Ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have raised worries over shipping operations, which could increase expenses for freight, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel worldwide.

Source: Barchart | Author: Market Desk | Date: May 15, 2026

World Coffee Research releases 2025 annual report

Posted on May 14, 2026May 14, 2026 by Qahwa World

Qahwa World – Dubai |
May 14, 2026 |
7 min read |
Source: WCR Annual Report 2025

Executive Summary

World Coffee Research released its 2025 annual report covering January 1 to December 31, 2025
Innova Global Coffee Breeding Network named a TIME Best Invention of 2025
Network expands to include robusta coffee with six partner countries producing 64% of global robusta
11 countries now in Innova network, producing 40% of world’s coffee supply
WCR aims to reduce breeding timeline from 30 years to 8 years using genetic markers
10-year IMLVT trial results: Up to half of arabica land could become unsuitable by 2050 due to climate change
$4.96 million in industry contributions; $9.85 million total financial position
Seed system expansions in Peru, Uganda, Guatemala, Honduras to produce millions of new trees annually
WCR helped secure $175 million in U.S. funding for agricultural R&D including coffee

World Coffee Research (WCR) announced the release of its 2025 annual report on December 31, 2025, detailing the expansion of its TIME-recognized Innova Global Coffee Breeding Network into robusta coffee, new data showing that half of current arabica land could become unsuitable by 2050, and seed system expansions across four producing countries.

The report, which covers the period between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, confirmed that WCR’s Innova network has expanded to include Coffea canephora (robusta) breeding, adding Vietnam and Ghana as new national partners. Six countries now participate in robusta breeding: Vietnam, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Rwanda, and Uganda, which together produce 64 percent of the world’s robusta supply. Overall, 11 countries make up the Innova network, producing 40 percent of global coffee supply.

An independent panel of global breeding experts commissioned by WCR’s board of directors reviewed the organization’s breeding programs in early 2025 and described the approach as a “radical step forward” that sets a new bar for coffee breeding worldwide. The Innova network was subsequently named a TIME Best Invention of 2025. The robusta breeding program combines multiple genetic groups, including a collection provided by French research institute CIRAD. Propagation began in 2025, and starting in 2027 each robusta partner will receive 1,000 unique new trees from WCR.

The report detailed that WCR is working to reduce coffee breeding timelines from the traditional 30 years to just 8 years. In 2025, the organization initiated a collaboration with Cenicafe, one of the world’s leading national coffee research institutions, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Tropical Agricultural Research Station (USDA TARS) in Puerto Rico to develop low-cost genetic markers for Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR), the world’s most economically devastating coffee disease. In 2026, WCR will expand this work to cover Coffee Berry Disease (CBD), Coffee Fruit Rot (CFR), and Coffee Berry Borer (CBB). Once validated between 2025 and 2028, these markers will be publicly released through scholarly publication.

According to the report, 10-year results from the International Multilocation Variety Trial (IMLVT), launched in 2015 with 31 arabica varieties shared by 11 breeding programs, confirmed that coffee leaf rust resistance depends on both genetics and environment. A 2015 study by WCR and CIAT that guided site selection for the trial network identified that up to half of today’s arabica land could become unsuitable for coffee production by 2050. The IMLVT has identified high-performing varieties with strong rust resistance and stable yields. In 2026, WCR will launch CafeClima, a free online platform integrating climate modeling with IMLVT variety performance data to help farmers make data-driven replanting decisions.

WCR installed 10,000 F1 hybrid plantlets across 10 trial sites in Peru, Guatemala, and Costa Rica, planted directly in farmers’ fields through member-led trials. The report also detailed seed system expansions across four countries. In Peru, 10 new arabica seed lots were installed with 8 cooperatives, targeting 15 seed lots by 2028 producing up to 6 million seeds annually. In Uganda, 11 mother gardens for disease-resistant robusta were installed or expanded with national coffee institute NaCORI, targeting over 40 mother gardens by 2028 producing 560,000 trees per year. In Guatemala and Honduras, 12 new seed lots will be installed in 2026, producing 5.4 million seeds annually starting in 2029.

The report highlighted advocacy wins including $175 million secured in FY26 “hard earmarks” for international agricultural R&D through coordinated advocacy by U.S. member companies, with a legal requirement that a portion support coffee research. A separate coalition mobilized $850,000 for Uganda’s coffee future from UNIDO, JDE Peet’s, Lavazza Foundation and The J.M. Smucker Co.

According to the financial section of the report, total contributions earned from the coffee industry in 2025 was $4,962,000. The total year-end financial position reached $9,852,000. Figures are pre-audit. WCR confirmed the commitment of its 194 member companies from 30 countries, with 59 additional companies and individuals providing financial support in 2025. WCR’s knowledge products, including the Coffee Varieties Catalog, Sensory Lexicon, and nursery manuals, were viewed 239,722 times in 195 countries during 2025. The organization also installed a small-batch processing facility at its research farm in El Salvador, custom-designed for breeding programs to process samples from thousands of individual trees.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Innova Global Coffee Breeding Network?

It is the most ambitious and globally coordinated coffee breeding program in history, bringing together 11 countries to transform coffee breeding and create enhanced genetics at an accelerated pace.

What recognition did WCR receive in 2025?

The Innova network was named a TIME Best Invention of 2025, and an expert panel described WCR’s breeding approach as a “radical step forward” for coffee.

How will climate change affect coffee production according to the report?

A 2015 study by WCR and CIAT that guided the IMLVT trial network found that up to half of today’s arabica land could become unsuitable by 2050.

Which countries are part of the Innova robusta breeding program?

Vietnam, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Rwanda, and Uganda — which together produce 64 percent of the world’s robusta.

How many member companies does WCR have?

194 member companies from 30 countries, with 59 additional companies and individuals providing financial support in 2025.

What is CafeClima?

A free online platform launching in 2026 that integrates climate modeling with variety performance data to help farmers make data-driven replanting decisions.

Coffee Prices Supported by Shrinking ICE Inventories as Supply Tightens

Posted on May 14, 2026May 14, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – Dubai. This article reviews ICE coffee inventories and coffee prices projections for 2026.

Source: Industry reports and exchange data
Date: May 14, 2026

Executive Summary

July arabica coffee gained 0.21%, while July robusta rose 2.24% to a seven-week high
ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,642 lots
ICE arabica stocks dropped to a 2.5-month low of 471,831 bags
Brazil April green coffee exports declined 1.3% year-over-year to 2.76 million bags
Vietnam January-April coffee exports surged 15.8% to 810,000 metric tons
Global coffee surplus projected to reach 10 million bags in 2026, largest in six years

Coffee futures settled higher in Wednesday trading as shrinking exchange inventories continued to provide market support, with robusta prices climbing to their highest level in nearly two months.

July arabica coffee on the New York exchange rose 0.60 points, or 0.21 percent, while July robusta coffee on the London exchange advanced 78 points, or 2.24 percent, reaching a seven-week peak.

Tightening stocks on the Intercontinental Exchange remained the primary bullish factor for the market. Robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,642 lots on Wednesday, while arabica stocks dropped to a two-and-a-half-month low of 471,831 bags earlier in the week.

Reduced shipments from Brazil also provided price support. The country’s April green coffee exports declined 1.3 percent compared to the same period last year, totaling 2.76 million bags, according to industry data.

Disruptions in key shipping routes have raised concerns over global coffee supply chains, contributing to higher costs for freight, insurance, fertilizers, and fuel for importers and roasters.

On the bearish side, rising shipments from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continued to weigh on the market. Vietnamese coffee exports during the first four months of 2026 increased 15.8 percent year-over-year to 810,000 metric tons. The country’s total coffee exports for 2025 also rose 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons.

Supply outlook: Vietnam coffee production for the 2025/2026 season is projected to increase 6 percent to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), which would mark a four-year high for the Southeast Asian producer.

Expectations of a larger Brazilian harvest are also placing downward pressure on prices. Recent projections indicate Brazil 2026/2027 coffee harvest could rise 12 percent year-over-year to 71.4 million bags.

Several trading firms have issued forecasts pointing to record production levels. A major commodities brokerage projected Brazil 2026/2027 crop at 75.9 million bags, while another trading firm raised its estimate to a record 75.3 million bags.

The global coffee surplus in 2026 could expand to 10 million bags, compared with 1.8 million bags in 2025, which would represent the largest surplus in six years, according to industry analysts.

Global coffee exports for the current October-September marketing year slipped 0.3 percent year-over-year to 138.66 million bags, based on data from the International Coffee Organization.

Looking further ahead, the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service projects that global coffee production in 2025/2026 will rise 2 percent year-over-year to a record 178.85 million bags. The agency forecasts arabica production to decline 4.7 percent to 95.52 million bags, while robusta production is expected to increase 10.9 percent to 83.33 million bags.

Brazil production for 2025/2026 is forecast to fall 3.1 percent to 63 million bags, while Vietnam output is projected to rise 6.2 percent to a four-year high of 30.8 million bags.

The USDA also expects ending stocks for the 2025/2026 season to decline 5.4 percent to 20.15 million bags, down from 21.31 million bags in the previous season.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did coffee prices rise recently?
Coffee prices moved higher primarily due to shrinking ICE inventories. Arabica stocks fell to a 2.5-month low, while robusta inventories dropped to a two-year low, tightening available supply.

How did Brazil coffee exports perform in April?
Brazil April green coffee exports declined 1.3 percent year-over-year to 2.76 million bags, providing some support to coffee prices.

What is happening with Vietnam coffee exports?
Vietnam coffee exports surged 15.8 percent in the first four months of 2026 to 810,000 metric tons, which has weighed on prices due to increased supply from the world largest robusta producer.

What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?
The global coffee surplus in 2026 could expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025, marking the largest surplus in six years.

What does the USDA forecast for global coffee production?
The USDA projects global coffee production will reach a record 178.85 million bags in 2025/2026, a 2 percent increase year-over-year, with robusta driving the growth.

How are Strait of Hormuz disruptions affecting coffee prices?
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns over global coffee supply chains, increasing shipping, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs for importers and roasters, which supports higher coffee prices.

Strong Dollar Weighs on Coffee Prices

Posted on May 13, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures closed lower on Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar pressured commodity markets. This is a clear example of how a Strong Dollar Weighs on Coffee Prices. July arabica coffee contracts (KCN26) fell 0.76%, while July robusta futures (RMN26) declined 0.63%.

Losses were limited by tightening certified coffee inventories. ICE arabica stocks dropped to a 2.5-month low of 471,831 bags, while robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,664 lots.

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to disrupt global coffee trade flows, increasing shipping, insurance, fuel, and fertilizer costs for importers and roasters.

Brazil’s weaker export performance also supported prices. Cecafe reported that Brazil’s March green coffee exports declined 10% year-on-year to 2.65 million bags, while the country’s Trade Ministry said total March coffee exports fell 31% to 151,000 metric tons.

Meanwhile, rising supplies from Vietnam weighed on robusta prices. Vietnam’s coffee exports during January–April 2026 increased 15.8% year-on-year to 810,000 metric tons, according to the National Statistics Office. The country’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to rise 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.

Expectations of a larger Brazilian crop also added bearish pressure. Recent forecasts from the Coffee Trading Academy, Marex Group, Sucafina, and StoneX all point to strong production in Brazil’s 2026/27 season, with estimates ranging from 71.4 million to 75.9 million bags.

StoneX also expects the global coffee surplus to expand to 10 million bags in 2026, compared with 1.8 million bags in 2025.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts global coffee production in 2025/26 will reach a record 178.848 million bags, driven by stronger robusta output, while global ending stocks are projected to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

Arabica Coffee Prices Drop on Outlook for Large Brazilian Harvest

Posted on May 8, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa Word

Arabica coffee futures fell to a two-week low on Thursday, weighed down by growing expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil. These developments have had a significant impact on arabica coffee prices, especially given Brazil’s bumper crop forecasts. Meanwhile, robusta prices edged higher. In fact, arabica coffee prices may fluctuate in response to Brazil bumper crop news.

July arabica coffee (KCN26) settled down 10.60 points, or 3.73%, while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) gained 19 points (+0.56%).

Brazilian Production Forecasts Weigh on Prices
Several recent projections point to a significantly larger Brazilian coffee harvest in 2026/27, putting pressure on arabica markets. Notably, arabica coffee prices are closely tied to Brazil bumper crop expectations, making these forecasts crucial for analysts.

The Coffee Trading Academy estimated last Thursday that Brazil’s 2026/27 crop could rise 12% from the previous year to 71.4 million bags. Moreover, fluctuations in arabica coffee prices strongly reflect Brazil’s bumper crop predictions.
On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 75.9 million bags, slightly above Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags (a 15.5% year‑on‑year increase).
StoneX raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2026/27 production to a record 75.3 million bags on March 12, up from a November forecast of 70.7 million bags. This kind of Brazil bumper crop forecast is a key driver for arabica coffee prices.

StoneX also predicted that the global coffee surplus in 2026 would grow to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025 – the largest surplus in six years. As a result, arabica coffee prices, Brazil, and bumper crop numbers remain intertwined topics for market participants.

Vietnam’s Strong Exports Pressure Robusta
Robusta prices face headwinds from surging Vietnamese shipments. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported on Saturday that the country’s coffee exports from January to April 2026 rose 15.8% year‑on‑year to 810,000 metric tons. For the full year 2025, Vietnamese exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Additionally, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to climb 6% year‑on‑year to a four‑year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

Strait of Hormuz Closure Creates Supply Concerns
The ongoing shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supply chains, supporting prices broadly. Higher shipping rates, insurance premiums, and increased costs for fertilizer and fuel have tightened available supplies, raising expenses for coffee importers and roasters. All these factors can indirectly affect arabica coffee prices, especially if Brazil expects another bumper crop.

Tight Inventories and Lower Brazilian Exports Provide Support
Signs of limited immediate supplies are also underpinning the market:

ICE arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 2.5‑month low of 483,292 bags on Thursday. This reduction coincides with a growing focus on Brazil bumper crop forecasts and arabica coffee prices.
ICE robusta inventories hit a 16.25‑month low of 3,755 lots last Tuesday.

Brazil’s export figures have also trended lower. On April 14, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports in March fell 10% year‑on‑year to 2.65 million bags. Earlier, on April 7, the country’s Trade Ministry noted that total March coffee exports declined 31% year‑on‑year to 151,000 metric tons. Therefore, arabica coffee prices in Brazil remain sensitive to both export volumes and bumper crop projections. It’s worth noting that Brazil’s bumper crop continues to make arabica coffee prices extremely volatile.

Global Export and Production Outlook
On November 7, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) slipped 0.3% year‑on‑year to 138.658 million bags.

Looking further ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected in its December 18 biannual report that world coffee production in 2025/26 would rise 2.0% year‑on‑year to a record 178.848 million bags. Within that total, arabica production is forecast to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production is expected to increase 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. The global market continues to monitor arabica coffee prices, Brazil, and potential bumper crop impacts for the coming years.

For Brazil, the FAS sees 2025/26 production falling 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is projected to grow 6.2% to a four‑year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast to decrease 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. In summary, arabica coffee prices, Brazil, and the bumper crop outlook will remain central themes for the global coffee market throughout 2026.

Coffee Prices Get Support from Brazilian Real Strength

Posted on May 5, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures traded sharply higher today. Arabica coffee rose to its highest level in one week. July arabica gained 3.43 percent. July robusta added 1.5 percent.

A major supporting factor is the strength of the Brazilian real. The currency surged to a two and a quarter year high against the US dollar. A stronger real discourages Brazilian coffee farmers from selling their crops overseas, which pushes prices upward.

Additional support comes from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This disruption has raised global shipping rates, insurance costs, fertilizer and fuel expenses. Coffee importers and roasters now face higher costs, tightening global supplies.

On the negative side, expectations of a large Brazilian coffee crop are limiting gains. The Coffee Trading Academy projected last Thursday that Brazil’s 2026/2027 harvest will increase 12 percent year over year to 71.4 million bags.

On March 19, Marex Group Plc forecast a record Brazilian crop of 75.9 million bags for the same season. That surpassed Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags, which represented a 15.5 percent annual increase. On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags. StoneX also projected the 2026 global coffee surplus would expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025. That would be the largest surplus in six years.

For robusta coffee, soaring exports from Vietnam are a bearish factor. Vietnam is the world’s largest robusta producer. On Saturday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to April 2026 rose 15.8 percent year over year to 810,000 metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5 percent annually to 1.58 million metric tons. In addition, Vietnam’s 2025/2026 coffee production is projected to climb 6 percent year over year to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons, or 29.4 million bags.

Tightness in arabica supplies is supporting prices. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a two and a quarter month low of 494,508 bags on April 21.

Smaller exports from Brazil also help support prices. On April 14, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s March green coffee exports fell 10 percent year over year to 2.65 million bags. On April 7, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that March coffee exports fell 31 percent annually to 151,000 metric tons.

Robusta coffee also sees bullish signs from tighter supplies. ICE robusta inventories fell to a sixteen and a quarter month low of 3,755 lots last Tuesday.

As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year, which runs October through September, fell 0.3 percent year over year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service said in its biannual report on December 18 that world coffee production in 2025/2026 would increase 2.0 percent annually to a record 178.848 million bags. That includes a 4.7 percent decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a 10.9 percent increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags. The USDA forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/2026 coffee production would decline 3.1 percent to 63 million bags. Vietnam’s coffee output would rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. The USDA also forecasts that 2025/2026 ending stocks will fall 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/2025.

Vietnam Coffee Exports Rise 16% in Early 2026 While Revenue Falls

Posted on May 4, 2026May 4, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Vietnam’s coffee sector recorded a strong increase in export volumes during the first four months of 2026, while total export revenues declined due to easing global prices following the record highs of the previous year.

According to official government data, Vietnam exported approximately 810,000 tons of coffee between January and April 2026, representing a 15.8% year-on-year increase. The rise reflects continued strength in production and logistics, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as the world’s largest robusta coffee producer.

However, despite higher shipment volumes, export revenues fell by 7% compared to the same period in 2025, totaling 3.69 billion dollars. This divergence between volume and value reflects a clear correction in global coffee prices, particularly in the robusta segment.

Volume and Value Gap in Market Performance

The latest figures highlight a widening gap between export volume and export value. While shipments increased significantly, the average export price declined to around 4,555 dollars per ton, down from the elevated levels seen in mid-2025.

This price normalization follows a period of tight global supply that previously pushed prices to historic highs. Improved harvest conditions in Vietnam’s Central Highlands and recovering output from other producing countries have eased supply constraints, contributing to softer prices.

Market Dynamics and Domestic Trends

The decline in export revenue is primarily linked to weaker global coffee prices as markets adjust to expectations of higher supply. Increased production in Vietnam, along with competitive exports from countries such as Indonesia, has contributed to a more balanced global market.

Domestically, farm-gate prices in key coffee-producing provinces such as Dak Lak and Lam Dong fluctuated between 88,700 and 89,300 Vietnamese dong per kilogram in April. These movements encouraged cautious selling behavior among farmers, who are closely monitoring price trends before releasing stocks.

Earlier in the year, export momentum was already strong. Shipments in January and February 2026 were reported to be up by around 14 percent in some datasets, with the first quarter maintaining solid volume growth despite continued pressure on export values.

Strong Crop Outlook Supports Export Growth

Vietnam’s 2025 to 2026 coffee crop is expected to remain strong, with earlier projections indicating a potential increase of around 10 percent compared to the previous season. This growth is supported by improved weather conditions following earlier drought-affected periods.

The favorable production outlook has helped sustain high export volumes and ensured stable supply availability in global markets.

Strategic Shift Toward Value Addition

In response to ongoing price volatility in raw coffee markets, Vietnamese authorities and industry stakeholders are accelerating efforts to expand deep processing.

This strategy focuses on increasing exports of roasted, ground, and instant coffee products rather than relying mainly on green bean shipments. Investments are being directed toward advanced processing facilities to strengthen value addition and improve competitiveness in global supply chains.

Outlook

Industry analysts expect Vietnam to maintain strong export volumes throughout 2026, potentially reaching near-record levels if current production trends continue. However, revenue growth may remain under pressure unless global prices recover or demand strengthens in key markets such as the European Union, the United States, and Japan.

Vietnam’s performance in early 2026 highlights a key trend in global coffee trade: rising supply is driving higher export volumes, while price normalization is limiting overall export value.

Source: General Statistics Office (GSO) / Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

Global Coffee Prices Fall as Brazil Crop Outlook Signals Oversupply

Posted on April 28, 2026April 28, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Global coffee prices declined at the start of the week as expectations of strong supply weighed on market sentiment, particularly with Brazil’s harvest approaching.

Arabica coffee had already fallen to its lowest level in several weeks, pressured by forecasts pointing to a potentially record-breaking Brazilian crop for the 2026/27 season. Analysts from multiple firms have raised their production estimates, with projections suggesting output could exceed 75 million bags. If realized, this would mark a significant increase from the previous season and reinforce expectations of abundant supply.

The global balance is also shifting. Current estimates indicate that the coffee market could move into a much larger surplus in 2026, compared to a relatively modest surplus the year before. This outlook has contributed to the recent downward trend in prices.

Vietnam is adding further pressure to the market. As the world’s leading robusta producer, the country has reported rising export volumes in early 2026, continuing the strong performance seen last year. Production is also expected to increase, reaching a multi-year high and boosting global robusta availability.

Despite the broader bearish outlook, some factors are offering limited support to prices. Robusta inventories monitored by exchanges have recently dropped to their lowest level in over a year, indicating tighter short-term supply.

There are also ongoing concerns about global trade conditions. Higher shipping and logistics costs continue to affect the coffee sector, increasing expenses for exporters and roasters and adding uncertainty to supply chains.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s recent export data shows a decline compared to the same period last year, suggesting a temporary tightening in available shipments even as larger future harvests are anticipated.

Looking ahead, global coffee production for the 2025/26 season is still expected to reach a record level. While arabica output may see a slight decrease, robusta production is forecast to rise significantly, helping to balance overall supply. Ending stocks are projected to decline modestly, indicating that while supply is strong, stock levels may not increase dramatically.