Strength in the Brazilian Real Boosts Coffee Prices

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures moved higher on Friday, supported by currency strength and supply dynamics. May arabica coffee (KCK26) rose by +6.40 points (+2.18%), while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) gained +14 points (+0.42%).

Arabica prices reached a one-week high, while robusta rebounded from its lowest level in 8.5 months in nearby futures. The rally was largely driven by the appreciation of the Brazilian real, which climbed to a two-year high against the US dollar. A stronger real tends to discourage export selling by Brazilian producers, tightening global supply.

Supply Trends and Inventory Movements

Tight robusta supplies continue to support prices. ICE-monitored robusta inventories declined to 3,977 lots, marking a 1.25-year low. In contrast, arabica inventories have increased, limiting price gains. ICE arabica stocks rose to 585,621 bags on March 18, the highest level in more than six months.

Shipping Disruptions Impact Global Trade

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global shipping routes, tightening coffee supplies worldwide. The disruption has increased freight rates, insurance costs, and fuel expenses, raising overall costs for coffee importers and roasters.

Weather Conditions in Brazil Support Prices

Weather conditions in Brazil are also providing support. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-growing region, received 11.7 mm of rainfall last week, representing only 47% of the historical average. Below-normal rainfall may affect crop development and support prices.

Record Crop Expectations Weigh on Market Sentiment

Despite current support factors, expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop continue to pressure the market. On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at 75.9 million bags, exceeding Sucafina’s estimate of 75.4 million bags and marking a 15.5% year-on-year increase.

On March 12, StoneX raised its forecast to 75.3 million bags, up from a previous estimate of 70.7 million bags. The firm also expects the global coffee surplus to expand to 10 million bags in 2026, compared to 1.8 million bags in 2025, representing the largest surplus in six years.

Vietnam Export Growth Pressures Robusta

Rising exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are weighing on prices. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 14% year-on-year to 585,000 metric tons.

In 2025, exports rose by 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 6% to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), reaching a four-year high.

Decline in Brazilian Exports Offers Support

Recent export data from Brazil provided additional support to prices. Cecafe reported that green coffee exports in February fell by 27% year-on-year to 2.3 million bags. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported a 31% decline in March exports to 151,000 metric tons.

Recent Price Trends and Global Outlook

Coffee prices declined sharply in February, with arabica falling to a 16.75-month low on February 24 due to expectations of strong Brazilian supply.

Brazil’s crop agency Conab projected on February 5 that 2026 coffee production would rise by 17.2% year-on-year to a record 66.2 million bags. Arabica output is expected to increase by 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to grow by 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.

Rabobank reported on March 4 that global coffee production for the 2026/27 season is expected to reach a record 180 million bags, about 8 million bags higher than the previous year.

Global Trade and Production Forecasts

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) declined by 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected in its December 18 report that global coffee production for 2025/26 will increase by 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to decline by 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta output is forecast to rise by 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

FAS also estimates that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will fall by 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s production will increase by 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are projected to decline by 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.

Brazil Crop Expectations Weigh on Coffee Prices

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices remain under pressure as the market continues to digest expectations of a large upcoming crop in Brazil. May arabica coffee declined by 0.65%, while May robusta slipped 0.69%, extending recent losses.

Arabica futures recently touched a three-week low, while robusta fell to its weakest nearby level in eight months. The downward trend is largely driven by forecasts pointing to record production in Brazil. Estimates from multiple analysts suggest the 2026/27 crop could reach between 75.3 and 75.9 million bags, representing a significant year-on-year increase.

At the same time, projections indicate a widening global coffee surplus. Estimates suggest the surplus could expand to 10 million bags in 2026, up sharply from 1.8 million bags in 2025, marking the largest surplus in six years.

Additional pressure is coming from Vietnam, the world’s leading robusta producer. Coffee exports from Vietnam rose 14% year-on-year in the first quarter, reaching 585,000 metric tons. Full-year exports in 2025 increased by 17.5%, while production for the 2025/26 season is expected to rise 6% to a four-year high.

Despite these bearish factors, some elements are offering support to prices. Weather conditions in Brazil remain a concern, with below-average rainfall in key growing regions such as Minas Gerais. Recent data shows rainfall at just 47% of the historical average, raising questions about crop development.

Supply dynamics are also mixed. Robusta inventories have tightened, with exchange-monitored stocks falling to a 15-month low. In contrast, arabica inventories have increased, reaching their highest level in over six months, adding further pressure to that segment of the market.

Export data from Brazil has provided some price support. Green coffee exports fell 27% year-on-year in February, while March exports dropped 31%, indicating a slowdown in shipments.

Looking back, coffee prices already experienced a sharp selloff in February, when arabica dropped to a 16.75-month low amid early signs of a strong Brazilian crop. Brazil’s official crop agency has projected a substantial increase in production, while global output is also expected to reach record levels in the 2026/27 season.

On a broader scale, global coffee production is forecast to rise modestly in 2025/26, driven by strong growth in robusta output, particularly from Vietnam. However, ending stocks are expected to decline, suggesting that supply tightness could still emerge in certain segments of the market.

Coffee Prices Fall as Supply Outlook Improves

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures declined sharply on Tuesday, with both arabica and robusta posting significant losses. Arabica reached its lowest level in about three weeks, while robusta dropped to its weakest nearby level in roughly eight months.

The recent downward trend is mainly linked to expectations of a large coffee harvest in Brazil. Updated projections for the 2026 to 2027 season indicate production exceeding 75 million bags, marking a strong increase compared to earlier estimates and last year’s output.

Global supply expectations are also shifting. Forecasts indicate a widening surplus in 2026, with estimates rising sharply from the previous year and pointing to the largest surplus in several years.

Vietnam, the world’s leading robusta producer, is adding further pressure on prices. Export volumes have increased notably, including strong growth in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year. Annual export data for 2025 also showed solid gains. Production is expected to rise as well, reaching the highest level in about four years.

Shipping disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have created additional challenges for the market. Higher freight costs, insurance expenses, and fuel prices are raising costs for importers and roasters despite the overall improvement in supply expectations.

Weather conditions in Brazil are providing some support to prices. Key growing regions such as Minas Gerais have received less rainfall than usual, which may affect crop development if dry conditions continue.

Inventory data shows mixed signals. Robusta stock levels have declined to multi month lows, suggesting tighter short term availability. In contrast, arabica inventories have increased, adding pressure on prices.

Brazil’s export performance has also shown some weakness. Shipments of green coffee fell significantly in February compared to the previous year, and total exports also recorded a noticeable decline.

Earlier in the year, coffee prices had already come under pressure. Arabica dropped sharply in February, reaching its lowest level in more than a year as expectations for strong production increased. Official forecasts in Brazil indicate higher output for both arabica and robusta.

At the global level, production is expected to reach a record in the 2026 to 2027 season, increasing by several million bags compared to the previous year.

Despite the overall bearish outlook, some tightening factors remain. Global export data shows a slight decline during the current marketing year, while ending stocks are expected to decrease modestly by the end of the 2025 to 2026 season.

The coffee market remains driven by the balance between strong supply expectations and localized constraints, with attention focused on weather conditions, export trends, and inventory levels.

Kazakhstanis Are Drinking More Coffee Despite Rising Prices

Kazakhstan – Qahwa World

In 2025, people in Kazakhstan bought coffee 24% more often on average in the morning. Demand continued to grow despite higher prices. The average price of a cup increased by 8% to 1,310 tenge.

The data comes from Poster, a company that provides automation systems for cafes and restaurants.

Classic Drinks Still Lead

Cappuccino remains the most popular choice. Latte ranks second, followed by Americano.

At the same time, coffee culture in Kazakhstan continues to evolve. Alternative brewing methods and drinks such as bumble, an espresso-based drink with orange juice often served cold, are still less popular than classic options but are growing rapidly.

In 2025:

  • filter coffee sales increased by 65%
  • bumble sales tripled

These categories also show the fastest price growth, yet demand continues to rise.

According to Asylzhan Kazi, founder of the Espresso Day coffee chain, classic drinks account for the majority of sales, while seasonal offerings, especially cold drinks in summer, provide additional growth.

Average Coffee Prices in Kazakhstan

Drink Average Price (₸) Price Growth in 2025
Alternative (pour-over, Chemex, AeroPress, etc.) 2180 ₸ ↑ 5%
Filter coffee 1210 ₸ ↑ 14%
Latte 1200 ₸ ↑ 10.5%
Cappuccino 1160 ₸ ↑ 9.6%
Flat white 1050 ₸ ↑ 7.3%
Americano 880 ₸ ↑ 10.5%

Based on aggregated and anonymized sales data from Poster.

Cities with the Highest Coffee Consumption

Astana led in coffee consumption in 2025, with sales growing by about one third compared to the previous year.

Almaty also saw growth, though more moderate at around 16% with already strong demand.

A Morning Habit

Coffee is most often purchased before the start of the workday. About a quarter of daily revenue is generated between 8:00 and 10:00, with a peak at 9:00.

Around half of daily revenue is made before 13:00. This shows that starting the day with coffee is becoming an increasingly common habit.

The Economics of a Cup

Earlier reports showed that coffee shop profitability in Almaty does not exceed 16%, based on calculations by coffee shop owner Osmanzhan Iminzhanov, who analyzed the cost structure of a single cup.

The 10 Most Expensive Cappuccino Cities in 2025

Dubai – Qahwa World

A simple cup of cappuccino can tell a story much larger than just a morning indulgence. It reflects the cost of living, wages, rents, taxes, currency strength, and local purchasing power. What feels like a small daily treat in one city can quickly become a notable expense in another.

Top Cities for the Priciest Cappuccinos (2025 Data)

According to Deutsche Bank’s “Mapping the World’s Prices 2025” report, which uses crowd-sourced Numbeo data from 69 major cities and converts prices into USD, the most expensive cappuccinos can be found in the following cities:

Rank City Country Cappuccino Price (USD)
1 Zurich Switzerland $6.77
2 Copenhagen Denmark $6.77
3 New York United States $5.95
4 San Francisco United States $5.90
5 Geneva Switzerland $5.86
6 Abu Dhabi UAE $5.84
7 Los Angeles United States $5.78
8 Chicago United States $5.67
9 Boston United States $5.62
10 Dubai UAE $5.53

European cities, particularly Swiss and Nordic ones, dominate the top rankings. High wages, steep rents, strong currencies such as the Swiss franc and Danish krone, and elevated operating costs all contribute to these high prices. Switzerland stands out with multiple cities in the top ten due to its exceptional cost of living.

Notable Price Differences Within Countries

  • In the United States, prices vary widely: New York ($5.95), San Francisco ($5.90), and Los Angeles ($5.78) are at the top, while other cities remain more moderate.
  • In Switzerland, Zurich and Geneva reflect the country’s generally high cost environment.
  • In the United Kingdom, Edinburgh ($5.28) and London ($5.19) are expensive but not among the world’s highest.
  • UAE cities like Abu Dhabi and Dubai are expensive due to imported goods, high expatriate demand, and a culture of premium cafés.

The Affordable Side: Where Cappuccino Remains Cheap

At the other end of the spectrum, cappuccinos can cost less than $2 in several cities:

  • Cairo, Egypt: ~$1.57 (cheapest in the dataset)
  • Rome, Italy: ~$1.79
  • Milan, Italy: ~$2.15
  • Delhi, India: ~$2.07
  • Mumbai, India: ~$2.58

Lower prices often stem from local sourcing, lower labor and rent costs, and a cultural focus on daily coffee or tea rituals.

The gap between the most and least expensive cities exceeds fourfold, highlighting global economic disparities.

Why Cappuccino Prices Reflect Bigger Economic Trends

Daily items like coffee are sensitive to multiple factors:

  • Labor costs: Barista wages in Zurich or Copenhagen are significantly higher than in Cairo.
  • Rent and real estate: Prime café locations in major financial hubs increase overhead costs.
  • Dependence on imports: Many high-cost cities rely on imported coffee beans, milk, and equipment.
  • Taxes and regulations: VAT, minimum wage laws, and sustainability standards all contribute to the final price.
  • Local purchasing power: Higher prices are often paired with higher salaries, meaning a $6.77 cappuccino in Zurich may feel more affordable relative to income than a $2 cappuccino in a lower-wage city.

A daily coffee habit (five days a week) costs approximately:

  • $33.85/month in Zurich or Copenhagen
  • ~$29.75/month in New York
  • Under $8/month in Cairo

Over a year, these expenses can total hundreds or thousands of dollars in high-cost cities, serving as a tangible reminder of inflation and urban economics.

Small pleasures like coffee make abstract concepts such as “cost of living” tangible. Whether budgeting for your daily ritual or analyzing global markets, the humble cappuccino offers a clear lens into local and international economies.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research – Mapping the World’s Prices 2025 (via Numbeo data). Prices are averages and may vary by café type and location.

Sharp Rise in Coffee Prices in Russia

Moscow – Qahwa World

A cup of coffee in Russia is no longer just a simple daily habit, it has become a growing expense that consumers are clearly beginning to feel. Within just one year, the equation has changed: the same amount of money that once covered five cups of coffee now barely pays for four.

Data indicates a noticeable increase in coffee prices across all categories. Ground coffee has risen by around 20%, while coffee beans have increased by approximately 16%. Instant coffee has also gone up, with the price of a small jar climbing from about 350 to 400 rubles.

This surge is not driven by local factors alone, but reflects broader global shifts. Unstable weather conditions in major producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam have reduced output, as droughts and frost have negatively impacted harvests.

At the same time, supply chains are under pressure due to higher transportation costs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, directly affecting the cost of coffee imports. In Russia, these pressures are compounded by the weakening of the local currency, making imports even more expensive.

You may read: 70% of Russians drink coffee daily

Additionally, businesses are facing rising operational costs, including taxes, energy prices, rent, and transportation. All of these factors ultimately feed into the final price paid by consumers.

Meanwhile, global demand for coffee continues to grow. [conclusion] Market estimates suggest that coffee consumption could increase by about one-third over the current decade, adding further pressure on supply and keeping prices elevated.

Given these conditions, analysts do not expect a significant decline in prices in the near term. Instead, prices are likely to continue rising at a moderate pace, potentially increasing by an additional 10–20% depending on the type and quality of coffee.

In the end, coffee is no longer just a stable, everyday commodity. it has become a reflection of broader changes in the global economy, from climate challenges to shifting supply chains and trade dynamics.

Dollar Strength and Brazil Crop Pressure Coffee Prices

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices moved lower as a stronger dollar and expectations of a record Brazilian crop continued to weigh on the market, while a mix of supply, weather, and trade factors shaped overall sentiment.

May arabica coffee fell by 0.95 points, or 0.32%, while May robusta declined by 48 points, or 1.36%, reflecting pressure linked to currency strength and improving supply expectations.

The outlook for Brazil’s next crop remains a central driver. Marex Group projected the country’s 2026 and 2027 coffee production at a record 75.9 million bags, exceeding Sucafina’s estimate of 75.4 million bags, which represents a 15.5% increase year on year. Earlier in the month, StoneX raised its forecast to 75.3 million bags, up from a previous estimate of 70.7 million bags.

Despite this pressure, tight supplies of robusta coffee provided some support. Inventories monitored by the exchange fell to 4,093 lots, the lowest level in three and a half months. In contrast, arabica inventories rose to 585,621 bags, marking a six and a quarter month high and adding further downward pressure on prices.

Global logistics disruptions added complexity to the market. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected shipping flows, increasing freight rates, insurance costs, and fuel expenses, raising costs for importers and roasters while tightening supply chains.

Weather conditions in Brazil also played a role. Rainfall in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-producing region, reached 11.7 millimeters last week, or 47% of the historical average, according to Somar Meteorologia. Below-normal rainfall typically supports prices, though this effect has been offset by broader supply expectations.

Trade data provided mixed signals. Brazil’s green coffee exports in February fell by 27% year on year to 2.3 million bags, according to Cecafe. Meanwhile, the country’s Trade Ministry reported that total coffee exports declined by 17.4% over the same period to 142,000 metric tons, offering some underlying support.

Earlier this year, coffee prices had already faced significant pressure. In February, arabica dropped to a 16.25-month low as expectations of a large Brazilian crop strengthened the global supply outlook. Brazil’s crop agency Conab said production in 2026 is expected to rise by 17.2% year on year to a record 66.2 million bags, including a 23.2% increase in arabica to 44.1 million bags and a 6.3% rise in robusta to 22.1 million bags.

At the global level, Rabobank projected that coffee production will reach a record 180 million bags in the 2026 and 2027 season, up by about 8 million bags from the previous year.

Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, added to bearish sentiment. The country reported a 14% increase in exports during the first two months of 2026 to 366,000 metric tons. Exports for 2025 rose by 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons, while production for the 2025 and 2026 season is expected to increase by 6% to a four-year high of 29.4 million bags.

Additional data from the International Coffee Organization showed that global coffee exports for the current marketing year edged down by 0.3% to 138.658 million bags.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service projected that global coffee production for the 2025 and 2026 season will increase by 2% to a record 178.848 million bags. The report also indicated a 4.7% decline in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a 10.9% increase in robusta output to 83.333 million bags.

The agency expects Brazil’s production for the same season to fall by 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is forecast to rise by 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to decline by 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in the previous season.

Together, these factors highlight a market caught between rising global supply expectations and ongoing logistical disruptions, weather concerns, and shifting inventory levels, leaving coffee prices under continued pressure.

Arabica Drops, Robusta Rises Amid Global Coffee Supply

Dubai – Qahwa World

Global coffee prices showed mixed trends this week. Arabica coffee declined to a one-and-a-half-week low, while Robusta coffee gained support from tight supply conditions.

The main pressure on Arabica prices comes from forecasts of a record Brazil coffee crop, the world’s largest coffee producer. Several international agencies raised estimates for the 2026/27 season to around 75 million bags, a strong year-on-year increase boosting the global supply outlook.

Despite climatic challenges, such as below-average rainfall in key regions like Minas Gerais, Brazilian production continues to rise.

The strength of the Brazilian real limited Arabica losses by reaching a three-week high against the U.S. dollar, reducing exporters’ incentives to sell.

Meanwhile, Robusta coffee prices were supported by falling ICE-certified inventories to a 3.5-month low, reflecting tight supply amid strong demand, especially for instant coffee production.

Global logistics disruptions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, increased shipping, insurance, and fuel costs, affecting importers and roasters worldwide.

Market pressures persist due to rising Arabica inventories and declining Brazilian green coffee exports, reflecting fluctuations in the global coffee market.

Globally, coffee production is expected to reach record levels in 2026/27, driven mainly by Robusta growth. Vietnam, the largest Robusta producer, continues to expand exports and output, adding downward pressure on prices.

Overall, the global coffee market reflects a delicate balance between abundant Arabica supplies and relatively tight Robusta stocks, along with climate effects, currency fluctuations, and logistical challenges, keeping prices volatile in the near term.

Coffee Slides on Supply Surge Signals

London – Qahwa World

Coffee futures dropped notably, with arabica hitting its lowest level in about a week and robusta sinking to a multi-month low. The decline comes as expectations grow for a significantly larger global supply, led by Brazil.

Forecasts from multiple analysts point to a record-breaking Brazilian harvest in the 2026/27 season, with estimates clustering around the mid-70 million bag range—marking a strong year-over-year increase. This optimistic outlook has weighed heavily on prices in recent sessions.

The downturn intensified as the U.S. dollar strengthened to its highest level in over ten months, adding further pressure to commodity markets, including coffee.

You may like: CQI CEO Michael Sheridan Highlights Strong Q1 2026 Momentum

Despite the broader bearish tone, some factors are offering support—particularly for robusta. Exchange-monitored inventories have tightened recently, signaling short-term supply constraints.

Logistical challenges have also emerged as shipping disruptions in key global routes have pushed up freight, insurance, and fuel costs, indirectly impacting coffee trade flows and pricing dynamics.

Weather conditions in Brazil remain another point of concern. Key growing regions have received less rainfall than usual, which could affect crop development if dryness persists.

On the inventory front, Arabica stocks tracked by exchanges have been rising, contributing to downward pressure on prices.

Read also: Roseville’s Coffee Passport brews community and business growth

Export data adds a mixed picture. Brazil reported a sharp decline in green coffee shipments in February compared to last year, alongside a broader drop in total coffee exports.

Earlier in the year, prices had already come under pressure following projections of a bumper crop in Brazil. Government and private forecasts have consistently pointed to strong production growth, especially in arabica output.

Globally, coffee supply is expected to expand further. Estimates suggest total production could reach new highs in the upcoming season, supported by gains in both Brazil and Vietnam.

Vietnam, the leading robusta producer, continues to boost exports, with shipments rising in the early months of the year. Production is also expected to increase, adding to global availability.

Meanwhile, some international data indicates only a slight dip in global exports so far this season, while overall production forecasts remain strong. However, ending stock levels are expected to tighten modestly, reflecting steady demand.

Coffee rallies hard as supply tightens and money flows back into the market

Dubai – Qahwa World

You can feel it again—the market is tightening, and coffee is responding exactly the way it tends to when physical supply starts to disappear.

Over the past week, coffee prices pushed sharply higher, and this wasn’t just a technical move. It’s a combination the industry knows well: weaker exports from origin countries and fresh speculative money stepping back in. That mix rarely stays quiet for long.

Arabica for May delivery jumped 8.6% to around $6,828 per tonne, while robusta added another 6%, reaching $6,664. Both markets are moving in sync, which usually tells you this isn’t a localised issue—it’s systemic.

You may like to read: Indonesia’s Top 9 Coffees in 2026

At the same time, the broader commodity space is sending mixed signals. Silver dropped heavily under the weight of high interest rates, while coffee moved the other way. That divergence says a lot about where capital is going: away from passive holdings and into markets where supply risk is real and immediate.

  • And right now, coffee has plenty of that.

The geopolitical backdrop isn’t helping. Tensions in the Middle East have started to interfere with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher. For coffee producers, that translates directly into higher costs — fuel, fertilisers, transport — everything gets more expensive. Eventually, those costs show up in the price of coffee.

But the bigger story is still supply.

Exports from the major producers are clearly slowing:

Brazil saw green coffee exports drop 27% year-on-year in February
Vietnam was down 20%
Colombia fell even harder, down 32%

Those are not small adjustments — that’s a meaningful contraction across all key origins at the same time.

You can also read: The Best Time to Drink Coffee, According to Experts

What’s more telling is what’s happening on the exchange. ICE stocks — the market’s safety cushion — are still about 30% below last year, sitting just above 552,000 bags. And Brazilian coffee makes up only a tiny share of that, roughly 4%.

That’s important. When Brazil isn’t showing up in exchange stocks, it usually means producers aren’t satisfied with current price levels — or simply don’t feel pressure to sell. Either way, it tightens the market further.

On top of that, funds are coming back in. Managed money increased its net long position in arabica by nearly 30% in just one reporting period. That kind of move doesn’t happen unless confidence — or urgency — is building.

Locally, in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, prices followed the global trend, climbing to around 94,000 dong per kilo. That’s a strong move in a short time, and it reflects how quickly international pressure feeds into domestic markets.

Read also: 43 Years of Data: How Coffee Affects the Brain and Memory

  • Meanwhile, silver drops — and capital rotates

While coffee is climbing, silver is going through the opposite cycle.

Prices fell more than 14% last week, extending a steady run of losses. The main driver here isn’t supply — it’s macroeconomics.

With inflation in the U.S. still stubborn, interest rates remain elevated. That pushes bond yields higher and makes non-yielding assets like silver less attractive. Money simply moves elsewhere.

You can also see it in ETF flows. Holdings dropped by 225 tons in a single week — a clear sign that institutional investors are reducing exposure.

What’s interesting, though, is that the physical market is telling a different story. China imported over 790 tons of silver in the first two months of the year, with February hitting a record. At the same time, exchange inventories in both Shanghai and COMEX are shrinking fast.

So, while paper markets are selling, physical demand hasn’t gone away.

  • The bigger picture

What we’re seeing now is a classic divergence.

Coffee is being driven by real-world constraints — supply, logistics, and producer behavior.
Silver is being driven by financial conditions — rates, yields, and capital flows.

For coffee, the key question isn’t whether prices can move — they already are. The real question is how long supply remains tight and whether producers step in at these levels.

Until that happens, the market stays vulnerable to further upside.

Coffee Prices Rise on Supply Concerns

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures rose on Monday, recovering from earlier losses as concerns over global supply disruptions supported the market.

May arabica gained 2.52 percent, rising 7.20 points, while May robusta edged up 0.46 percent, adding 16 points.

The rebound followed reports that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, disrupting a key global shipping route. The development has pushed up freight rates, insurance costs, and fuel prices, increasing pressure on coffee importers and roasters worldwide.

You may Like: Coffee Prices Rise as Iran Conflict Disrupts Global Shipping

Earlier in the session, prices had moved lower as improved weather conditions in Brazil eased concerns about crop stress. Rainfall in Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-growing region, reached 57.7 millimeters last week, about 139 percent of the historical average.

Expectations of a large Brazilian harvest also continue to weigh on the market. StoneX recently raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2026 to 2027 coffee production to a record 75.3 million bags, up from 70.7 million.

Export data, however, provided some support. Figures from Cecafé showed Brazil’s green coffee exports fell 27 percent year on year in February to 2.3 million bags. Data from the country’s Trade Ministry also showed total coffee exports declined 17.4 percent to 142,000 metric tons.

Read also: Coffee Markets Rise Amid Middle East Shipping Disruptions

At the same time, rising inventories continue to weigh on prices. Arabica stocks monitored by Intercontinental Exchange climbed to 572,004 bags last week, the highest level in five and a half months. Robusta inventories also reached a three and a half month high earlier this month before easing slightly.

Coffee markets have been under pressure in recent weeks. In February, arabica fell to its lowest level in more than 15 months, while robusta dropped to a seven month low, largely due to expectations of a strong Brazilian crop.

Brazil’s crop agency Conab estimates 2026 production will rise 17.2 percent to 66.2 million bags. Arabica output is expected to increase 23.2 percent, while robusta production may grow 6.3 percent.

You may read: Kim Thompson: Coffee on the Edge of Disruption

Globally, Rabobank projects coffee production will reach a record 180 million bags in the 2026 to 2027 season, up by around 8 million bags from the previous year.

Strong supply from Vietnam has also added pressure to the market. Coffee exports from the country rose 14 percent in the first two months of 2026 to 366,000 metric tons, while full-year 2025 exports increased 17.5 percent. Production is expected to rise 6 percent to 1.76 million metric tons.

According to the International Coffee Organization, global coffee exports for the current season edged down 0.3 percent to 138.66 million bags. Meanwhile, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts global production will increase 2 percent to a record 178.85 million bags, even as ending stocks are expected to decline by 5.4 percent to 20.15 million bags.

Costa Rican Coffee Farmers Hit by Strong Colón and Falling Prices

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee growers across Costa Rica are facing mounting financial pressure as two powerful forces converge: a sharply stronger national currency and declining global coffee prices. Industry leaders warn that the combination could significantly reduce farm income in the coming harvest and deepen the economic strain on rural coffee communities.

For a sector long recognized for producing high-quality Arabica coffee, the current environment highlights how global market shifts and domestic economic trends can quickly reshape the outlook for producers.

  • Currency Strength Erodes Export Earnings

Coffee in Costa Rica is sold on international markets in United States dollar, while most production costs—such as wages, fertilizers, transportation, and farm maintenance—are paid in Costa Rican colón.

You may read:Brazil’s Specialty Coffee Sector Gains Global Momentum

As the colón strengthens, every dollar earned from coffee exports converts into fewer colones. This reduces the real income farmers receive even when the global coffee price remains stable.

Exchange-rate data released by the Banco Central de Costa Rica show the dollar trading near ₡470 in mid-March 2026, significantly stronger for the local currency compared with rates above ₡680 only a few years earlier.

For export sectors such as coffee, the shift has created a challenging environment. While a strong currency can help reduce the cost of imported goods for consumers, it often compresses margins for industries that rely on international sales.

  • Factors Behind the Strong Colón

Economists attribute the strength of the Costa Rican currency to several economic trends that have increased the supply of foreign currency in the country.

Read also: Global Study Maps the “Carbon Footprint” of Latin American Coffee

Strong tourism revenues, expanding exports from companies operating in special economic zones, and steady foreign investment have all contributed to increased inflows of dollars into the national economy. Lower energy import costs have also reduced the demand for foreign currency.

In response to these pressures, the Banco Central de Costa Rica has purchased large amounts of dollars in foreign-exchange markets in an effort to moderate fluctuations and build international reserves. Despite these efforts, the colón has remained relatively strong compared with historical averages.

  • Global Coffee Prices Move Lower

At the same time that currency movements are reducing local earnings, international coffee prices have begun to retreat from the highs seen in recent years.

You can also read: AI and Gas Chromatography Identify Coffee Origins

Prices for Arabica coffee traded on the Intercontinental Exchange in New York surged during 2025 amid global supply concerns. However, market sentiment has shifted as forecasts point to increased production in several major coffee-growing countries.

A major factor influencing the outlook is the expected harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer. Production forecasts indicate the possibility of a larger crop in the 2026–2027 season, which could add significant supply to global markets and place additional downward pressure on prices.

For Costa Rican producers, the combination of falling prices and currency shifts means revenues could decline even further in the coming harvest cycle.

  • Rural Communities at Stake

Coffee remains a central pillar of rural economic life in Costa Rica. The industry provides employment for tens of thousands of workers throughout the year, along with additional seasonal jobs during harvest.

Production is concentrated in well-known coffee-growing regions such as Tarrazú, Pérez Zeledón, and Coto Brus, where generations of families have cultivated coffee as their primary source of income.

Small farms dominate the sector. A large majority of producers operate relatively small holdings, and many rely on modest harvest volumes each year. These producers are often the most vulnerable to price volatility and economic shocks.

Read also: ICO February 2026 Report: Has the Inflationary Wave Receded?

Over the past decade, the number of registered coffee growers in the country has declined as some farmers left the sector due to rising costs and uncertain profitability.

  • Growing Concern Among Industry Leaders

The Costa Rican Coffee Institute has described the current situation as a serious challenge for the industry and has called for continued dialogue with policymakers about possible support measures.

Proposals being discussed include improved credit access for farmers, targeted programs to support rural communities, and long-term initiatives focused on innovation, sustainability, and productivity.

Industry representatives emphasize that strengthening the resilience of coffee farms will be essential if Costa Rica is to maintain its reputation as a producer of high-quality coffee in a rapidly changing global market.

  • A Defining Moment for Costa Rica’s Coffee Sector

Costa Rica’s coffee industry has long been regarded as a symbol of national agricultural identity and quality. Yet the sector now finds itself navigating a complex mix of economic pressures beyond farmers’ control.

If global prices continue to soften while the national currency remains strong, growers may face increasingly difficult decisions about the future of their farms.

For thousands of coffee-growing families, the coming seasons could determine whether coffee cultivation remains a sustainable livelihood—or whether the country’s historic coffee landscape begins to change in fundamental ways.