Tag: Coffee Prices

Coffee Prices Rise Amid Supply Concerns and Shipping Disruptions

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures moved higher, supported by growing concerns over global supply disruptions and tightening inventories. Arabica and robusta contracts both posted gains, with robusta showing stronger momentum.

A key driver behind the price increase is rising tension around the Strait of Hormuz. Reports of shipping disruptions have heightened concerns about global trade flows, leading to increased freight costs, insurance premiums, and fuel expenses. These factors are adding pressure on coffee importers and roasters, contributing to upward price movement.

Robusta prices are receiving additional support from declining exchange inventories, which have dropped to their lowest level in over a year. This signals tighter short-term availability in the market.

However, expectations of a large upcoming harvest in Brazil are limiting stronger price rallies. Several industry forecasts point to a record crop for the 2026/27 season, with projections consistently above 75 million bags. At the same time, estimates suggest a significant global surplus could emerge in 2026, potentially the largest in several years.

Vietnam’s export performance is also weighing on the market, particularly for robusta. Shipments have increased notably in early 2026, following strong export growth in the previous year. Production in Vietnam is also expected to rise, reaching multi-year highs, which could further ease supply constraints.

On the other hand, reduced exports from Brazil are offering some support to prices. Recent data shows a decline in shipments compared to last year, tightening near-term availability in the global market.

Weather conditions in Brazil remain another important factor. Below-average rainfall in key growing regions, particularly Minas Gerais, has raised concerns about crop yields, adding a bullish element to price outlooks.

Looking at the broader picture, global export volumes have shown slight weakness, while production forecasts indicate modest overall growth. Arabica output is expected to decline, while robusta production is projected to increase significantly. Meanwhile, global coffee inventories are forecast to shrink, suggesting that supply pressures may persist despite higher production in some regions.

Rising prices reshape coffee consumption patterns in Russia

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Moscow – Qahwa World

Data from the “Check Index” analytical center of the OFD Platform show significant changes in coffee consumption patterns in Russia during 2024–2026, driven by sustained price increases across all major categories.

In 2025, prices rose across the entire market. The average price of instant coffee reached 482 rubles (+22% year-on-year), roasted beans 1,223 rubles (+40%), ground coffee 541 rubles (+29%), capsules 710 rubles (+15%), and drip-pack coffee 354 rubles (+16%).

At the same time, purchase volumes declined in most segments. Consumption of roasted beans fell by 21%, ground coffee by 11%, capsules by 13%, and instant coffee by 10%. The only category to show growth was drip-pack coffee, where purchases increased by 37% in 2025.

The data attributed this growth to the relatively lower price of drip packs compared with other formats, as well as ease of preparation, which led to partial substitution from ground coffee and capsules. The segment also showed higher adoption among younger consumers, including Generation Z.

In the first quarter of 2026, prices continued to rise. Instant coffee averaged 527 rubles (+7%), roasted beans 1,330 rubles (+10%), ground coffee 618 rubles (+15%), capsules 737 rubles (+5%), and drip-pack coffee 422 rubles (+10%).

Demand trends during the same period were mixed. Purchases of instant coffee increased by 4%, while roasted beans declined by 2%, ground coffee by 13%, capsules by 7%, and drip-pack coffee by 13%.

In the café segment, Russians purchased around 10.3 million cups of coffee per month. The average number of items per receipt was 3.1, with coffee and beverages accounting for 72% of total purchases.

The average price per cup in cafés rose to 289 rubles in Q1 2026. After a 19% increase in 2025, coffee sales in the food service sector declined by 4% at the beginning of 2026.

Overall, the data indicates a gradual restructuring of Russia’s coffee market, as rising prices continue to reshape consumption patterns and shift demand across different product categories.

Coffee Markets Decline as Supply Fears Subside

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures moved lower at the end of the week, with both arabica and robusta contracts posting notable losses. Arabica dropped to its lowest level in about a week, while robusta also weakened.

The decline was linked in part to improving conditions in global shipping. Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened helped calm earlier concerns about disruptions, suggesting smoother trade flows and reducing anxiety over supply constraints.

Earlier in the week, arabica had already been under pressure, touching a one-month low as expectations grew for a strong harvest in Brazil. Several industry forecasts point toward a record crop in the 2026/27 season, with estimates clustering above 75 million bags. Some analysts also anticipate a significant expansion in the global coffee surplus, potentially reaching its highest level in several years.

Meanwhile, Vietnam continues to play a major role on the supply side. The country, the leading producer of robusta coffee, has reported rising export volumes. Shipments in the first quarter increased compared to the same period last year, and full-year exports have also shown solid growth. Production in the current season is expected to climb to a multi-year high, adding further pressure to prices.

Despite this broader supply outlook, some factors are offering limited support. Inventories of robusta monitored by the ICE exchange have declined to their lowest level in over a year, indicating tighter availability in certified stocks.

In Brazil, export data has been mixed. Recent figures show a drop in shipments compared to last year, which may lend some support to prices. Weather is also being closely watched, as below-average rainfall in key growing regions like Minas Gerais could affect crop yields.

On the global stage, export volumes have edged slightly lower in the current marketing year, according to international data. However, overall production is still expected to rise in the 2025/26 season, driven by gains in robusta output despite a projected decline in arabica production.

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest Brazil’s total production may ease slightly, while Vietnam’s output is likely to increase. At the same time, global ending stocks are expected to shrink, reflecting ongoing shifts in supply and demand dynamics.

Brazil Export Decline Supports Coffee Prices

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices moved higher midweek, with both arabica and robusta futures posting gains. Robusta led the advance, reaching its strongest level in roughly one and a half weeks, supported by tightening near-term supplies.

A key factor behind the upward movement is reduced export activity from Brazil. Recent figures indicate that shipments of green coffee declined in March compared to the same month last year. Broader trade data also shows a sharp drop in overall coffee exports, reinforcing concerns about limited supply from the world’s leading producer.

In the robusta segment, falling inventories have added to the bullish sentiment. Exchange-monitored stockpiles have dropped to their lowest levels in more than a year, highlighting ongoing supply tightness in the physical market.

Weather conditions are also contributing to price support. Brazil’s main arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, has received significantly less rainfall than usual in recent weeks. Reduced precipitation during key crop development stages may affect yields, adding uncertainty to future supply.

However, the broader outlook remains complex. Earlier projections of a large upcoming Brazilian crop continue to weigh on market sentiment. Several forecasts point to record production in the 2026/27 season, with global supply potentially expanding into a sizeable surplus.

At the same time, rising certified inventories for arabica have recently pressured prices, reflecting improved availability in some segments of the market.

Global logistics challenges are adding another layer of influence. Disruptions to major shipping routes have increased freight, insurance, and fuel costs, raising expenses for importers and roasters and contributing to overall market volatility.

Meanwhile, Vietnam continues to strengthen its position in the robusta sector. Strong export performance and expectations of increased production could help offset supply constraints from Brazil.

Earlier in the year, coffee prices declined sharply amid expectations of abundant global output. Forecasts suggest that worldwide production could reach record levels in the coming seasons, driven largely by Brazil and Vietnam.

Even so, global stock levels are expected to edge lower, with ending inventories projected to decline compared to the previous season. This balance between strong production and tightening stocks underscores the mixed and evolving outlook for the global coffee market.

 

 

Russia’s Green Coffee Market Records Historic Growth in 2026

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Mocow-QahwaWorld

Russia’s green coffee market posted significant growth in 2026, supported by rising global prices and sustained domestic demand, according to a recent analysis by ROIF Expert. The expansion reflects not only higher market value but also increased import volumes and consumption levels, reinforcing Russia’s position as a key destination for global coffee exporters.

Market Value Jumps by 92 Billion Rubles

The market value of green coffee increased by approximately 92 billion rubles between its lowest and highest recent levels, marking one of the strongest gains in the sector. The growth is largely attributed to higher global coffee prices, influenced by weather-related challenges in major producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam.

While import volumes continued to rise, value growth outpaced physical expansion, reflecting sustained price pressure across global supply chains.

Imports Remain the Core Driver

Russia relies almost entirely on imports to meet its green coffee demand. Between 2025 and 2026, total import volumes reached around 286,000 tons.

  • Import value increased by 45.5% in the first nine months of 2025, reaching $924.7 million
  • Vietnam recorded a 1.5x increase in exports
  • Brazil nearly doubled its export volumes
  • Indonesia strengthened its position among top suppliers with 1.6x growth

Despite ongoing sanctions, supply flows remained stable. The primary challenge involved payment restrictions, prompting companies to adapt through alternative channels, including intermediary countries such as Turkey, China, and the UAE, as well as increased direct shipping routes.

Consumption Reaches Record Levels

Consumption indicators show continued growth, with per capita coffee consumption reaching its highest recorded levels. Approximately 70% of the population consumes coffee daily, while a majority consider it an essential part of their routine.

Home consumption is expected to grow by 15% by the end of 2026, alongside increasing demand for specialty coffee and whole beans.

Shifts in Supply Chains

Supply chains are gradually shifting toward Asian producers, particularly Vietnam and Indonesia, while overall trade flows remain relatively stable. At the same time, the market continues to face pricing pressures and logistical risks linked to geopolitical factors.

Outlook Through 2033

The baseline scenario outlined in the report suggests steady growth over the coming years, supported by consistent demand and expanding import activity.

  • Projected annual growth between 3% and 5.5%
  • Moderate increase in global price levels
  • Continued rise in per capita consumption
  • Further diversification of import sources

The market is expected to maintain positive momentum, demonstrating resilience in the face of external pressures.

Implications for Industry Stakeholders

The Russian market offers strong opportunities for global exporters, given its full dependence on imports. Domestic players are increasingly focused on higher-quality offerings and cost management, while consumers benefit from a broader range of products.

From an investment perspective, the sector shows the ability to convert price pressures into growth drivers, enhancing its medium-term appeal.

Conclusion

Russia’s green coffee market in 2026 reflects a mature and resilient sector. The sharp increase in market value and sustained demand indicate a continued upward trajectory, with growth expected to extend through the end of the decade.

 

March 2026 Coffee Market Report: Global Prices Rebound Amid Geopolitical Tension

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Global Coffee Market Report: March 2026

An In-Depth Expert Analysis by an Independent Journalist – Based on the Official ICO Coffee Market Report

Dubai – Qahwa World

The global coffee market experienced one of its most dramatic and multifaceted months in recent memory during March 2026. After three consecutive months of steady price erosion, the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) staged a decisive rebound, averaging 273.70 US cents/lb, a solid 2.3% increase from February’s 267.57 US cents/lb. This recovery was not driven by traditional supply fundamentals alone. Instead, it was propelled by an abrupt and powerful geopolitical shock that temporarily overrode the market’s otherwise bearish supply outlook. The result was a case study in how external macro forces can intersect with coffee-specific dynamics to create extreme short-term volatility while leaving longer-term questions unresolved.

The Strait of Hormuz Crisis: A Geopolitical Black Swan for Commodities

The catalyst arrived on 4 March when the Strait of Hormuz was declared closed to vessels allied with the United States amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. Few waterways are as strategically vital: roughly 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade and nearly 20% of global liquefied natural gas exports transit this narrow passage. The immediate consequences rippled far beyond energy markets. Brent crude prices breached $100 per barrel within days. Bunker fuel, container freight rates, and marine insurance premiums spiked simultaneously. Coffee traders, already navigating a complex supply picture, responded with aggressive risk-on buying.

You may read : ICO February 2026 Report: Has the Inflationary Wave Receded?

The ICO report highlights the dual impact on the sector. In the short term, higher shipping costs and energy expenses added upward pressure on physical coffee premiums. In the longer term, the disruption threatened fertilizer supply chains. The Gulf region is a major global fertilizer producer, and between one-quarter and one-third of the entire global fertilizer trade, including up to one-third of nitrogen fertilizers such as urea, passes through the strait. While the current 2025/26 crop cycle was largely insulated as most fertilizers had already been applied, any prolongation of the blockade would create risks for the 2026/27 season. This layered uncertainty injected a significant risk premium into coffee futures and physical markets.

March in Four Distinct Phases: A Masterclass in Market Psychology

Phase 1 – Geopolitical Rally (2–9 March): The month opened with the I-CIP at 267.40 US cents/lb. Within five trading days of the blockade announcement, risk-premium buying propelled prices to 278.77 US cents/lb, a 4.3% surge. The rally reflected surging energy costs, freight rates, and insurance premiums, which created a cost-push narrative embraced by coffee bulls.

Phase 2 – Sharp Correction (10–13 March): The market reversed sharply. On 10–11 March the I-CIP fell from 276.01 to 267.19 US cents/lb. The trigger was fundamentals. Leading brokerages Marex Group Plc and Sucafina released forecasts for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at 75.9 million bags and 75.4 million bags respectively. By 13 March the I-CIP reached its monthly low of 265.50 US cents/lb. Risk appetite weakened further as broader financial markets rotated toward safe-haven assets.

Phase 3 – Stabilization and New Rally (14–24 March): Prices stabilized in the 269–271 US cents/lb range. Mixed signals emerged, including reports of limited vessel traffic through the Strait and persistent backwardation in the futures curve, indicating continued tightness in nearby supply.

Phase 4 – Late-Month Spike and Selloff (25–30 March): The rally faded as bearish catalysts returned. Rabobank reiterated its forecast of an 8.64 million-bag global surplus for 2026/27. Selling pressure intensified, and the month closed weaker despite the overall monthly gain.

This four-phase structure highlights a market shaped by competing forces: geopolitical risk provided temporary support, while expectations of record production capped upside momentum.

Divergent Performance Across Coffee Groups

  • Colombian Milds: +2.0% to 337.45 US cents/lb
  • Other Milds: +4.0% to 334.34 US cents/lb
  • Brazilian Naturals: +3.9% to 320.51 US cents/lb
  • Robustas: –1.6% to 176.77 US cents/lb

The London Robusta contract fell 2.5% to 161.91 US cents/lb, while New York Arabica futures rose 0.5% to 290.18 US cents/lb. Differentials reflected this divergence. The Colombian Milds–Other Milds gap narrowed from 9.54 to 3.12 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals–Robustas gap widened to 143.74 US cents/lb, and the Other Milds–Robustas gap expanded to 157.57 US cents/lb. The arbitrage between London and New York futures increased to 128.27 US cents/lb.

You may also read: Global Coffee Market Roadmap—January 2026

Intra-day volatility eased slightly, with the I-CIP volatility falling to 9.8%. Robustas volatility rose to 10.9%. Certified stocks showed contrasting trends: London Robusta stocks contracted 10.7% to 0.66 million bags, while New York Arabica stocks increased 17.7% to 0.61 million bags.

February 2026 Export Data: The Underlying Supply Reality

While March prices reacted to geopolitics, February trade data revealed structural supply pressure. Global green-bean exports fell 9.0% year-on-year to 9.79 million bags. Total exports of all forms of coffee declined 5.7% to 11.46 million bags.

Regional Breakdown (All Forms of Coffee)

  • Asia & Oceania: –4.7% to 4.45 million bags. Vietnam’s exports fell 14.9% to 2.76 million bags due to the timing of Tết (Vietnamese Lunar New Year), which reduced working days. India partially offset this with a 38.5% increase.
  • South America: –21.8% to 3.61 million bags. Brazil and Colombia recorded significant declines in both exports and production.
  • Caribbean, Mexico & Central America: +30.0% to 1.98 million bags. Honduras led gains due to harvest timing shifts caused by previous weather disruptions.
  • Africa: +5.9% to 1.43 million bags, driven by Côte d’Ivoire.

Arabica’s share of total green-bean exports for the first five months of coffee year 2025/26 declined to 60.9% from 65.1% a year earlier.

Processed coffee exports showed strength, with soluble coffee rising 18.0% to 1.6 million bags and roasted exports increasing 85.1% from a low base.

Supply-Demand Balance: A Surplus on the Horizon

The ICO supply-demand balance for the coffee year beginning October 2024 shows world production at 177.51 million bags, up 5.2% year-on-year. Consumption rose 1.4% to 175.07 million bags. This results in a surplus of 2.44 million bags, marking a shift toward oversupply conditions.

Expert Perspective: What This Means for the Industry

March 2026 demonstrated the coffee market’s sensitivity to external shocks even in a structurally supply-heavy environment. Geopolitical developments provided temporary price support, but underlying fundamentals continued to reflect expectations of abundant supply, particularly from Brazil’s projected 2026/27 crop.

Input costs remain a key variable, particularly fertilizer supply chains linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged disruption could influence production costs and future output. Meanwhile, widening Arabica–Robusta differentials and inter-market arbitrage opportunities reflect shifting trade dynamics across futures markets.

Conclusion

The March 2026 coffee market absorbed a significant geopolitical shock while maintaining its broader supply-driven trajectory. The ICO Composite Indicator Price rose 2.3%, halting a three-month decline. However, volatility and late-month weakness reinforced the dominance of supply expectations in shaping market direction. Attention now turns to developments affecting logistics, input costs, and the 2026/27 production cycle.

All data, figures, and phase descriptions are drawn directly and exclusively from the International Coffee Organization’s official Coffee Market Report – March 2026. Analysis and contextual commentary are the independent assessment of the author.

 

Strength in the Brazilian Real Boosts Coffee Prices

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures moved higher on Friday, supported by currency strength and supply dynamics. May arabica coffee (KCK26) rose by +6.40 points (+2.18%), while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) gained +14 points (+0.42%).

Arabica prices reached a one-week high, while robusta rebounded from its lowest level in 8.5 months in nearby futures. The rally was largely driven by the appreciation of the Brazilian real, which climbed to a two-year high against the US dollar. A stronger real tends to discourage export selling by Brazilian producers, tightening global supply.

Supply Trends and Inventory Movements

Tight robusta supplies continue to support prices. ICE-monitored robusta inventories declined to 3,977 lots, marking a 1.25-year low. In contrast, arabica inventories have increased, limiting price gains. ICE arabica stocks rose to 585,621 bags on March 18, the highest level in more than six months.

Shipping Disruptions Impact Global Trade

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global shipping routes, tightening coffee supplies worldwide. The disruption has increased freight rates, insurance costs, and fuel expenses, raising overall costs for coffee importers and roasters.

Weather Conditions in Brazil Support Prices

Weather conditions in Brazil are also providing support. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-growing region, received 11.7 mm of rainfall last week, representing only 47% of the historical average. Below-normal rainfall may affect crop development and support prices.

Record Crop Expectations Weigh on Market Sentiment

Despite current support factors, expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop continue to pressure the market. On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at 75.9 million bags, exceeding Sucafina’s estimate of 75.4 million bags and marking a 15.5% year-on-year increase.

On March 12, StoneX raised its forecast to 75.3 million bags, up from a previous estimate of 70.7 million bags. The firm also expects the global coffee surplus to expand to 10 million bags in 2026, compared to 1.8 million bags in 2025, representing the largest surplus in six years.

Vietnam Export Growth Pressures Robusta

Rising exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are weighing on prices. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 14% year-on-year to 585,000 metric tons.

In 2025, exports rose by 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 6% to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), reaching a four-year high.

Decline in Brazilian Exports Offers Support

Recent export data from Brazil provided additional support to prices. Cecafe reported that green coffee exports in February fell by 27% year-on-year to 2.3 million bags. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported a 31% decline in March exports to 151,000 metric tons.

Recent Price Trends and Global Outlook

Coffee prices declined sharply in February, with arabica falling to a 16.75-month low on February 24 due to expectations of strong Brazilian supply.

Brazil’s crop agency Conab projected on February 5 that 2026 coffee production would rise by 17.2% year-on-year to a record 66.2 million bags. Arabica output is expected to increase by 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to grow by 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.

Rabobank reported on March 4 that global coffee production for the 2026/27 season is expected to reach a record 180 million bags, about 8 million bags higher than the previous year.

Global Trade and Production Forecasts

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) declined by 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected in its December 18 report that global coffee production for 2025/26 will increase by 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to decline by 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta output is forecast to rise by 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

FAS also estimates that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will fall by 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s production will increase by 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are projected to decline by 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.

Brazil Crop Expectations Weigh on Coffee Prices

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices remain under pressure as the market continues to digest expectations of a large upcoming crop in Brazil. May arabica coffee declined by 0.65%, while May robusta slipped 0.69%, extending recent losses.

Arabica futures recently touched a three-week low, while robusta fell to its weakest nearby level in eight months. The downward trend is largely driven by forecasts pointing to record production in Brazil. Estimates from multiple analysts suggest the 2026/27 crop could reach between 75.3 and 75.9 million bags, representing a significant year-on-year increase.

At the same time, projections indicate a widening global coffee surplus. Estimates suggest the surplus could expand to 10 million bags in 2026, up sharply from 1.8 million bags in 2025, marking the largest surplus in six years.

Additional pressure is coming from Vietnam, the world’s leading robusta producer. Coffee exports from Vietnam rose 14% year-on-year in the first quarter, reaching 585,000 metric tons. Full-year exports in 2025 increased by 17.5%, while production for the 2025/26 season is expected to rise 6% to a four-year high.

Despite these bearish factors, some elements are offering support to prices. Weather conditions in Brazil remain a concern, with below-average rainfall in key growing regions such as Minas Gerais. Recent data shows rainfall at just 47% of the historical average, raising questions about crop development.

Supply dynamics are also mixed. Robusta inventories have tightened, with exchange-monitored stocks falling to a 15-month low. In contrast, arabica inventories have increased, reaching their highest level in over six months, adding further pressure to that segment of the market.

Export data from Brazil has provided some price support. Green coffee exports fell 27% year-on-year in February, while March exports dropped 31%, indicating a slowdown in shipments.

Looking back, coffee prices already experienced a sharp selloff in February, when arabica dropped to a 16.75-month low amid early signs of a strong Brazilian crop. Brazil’s official crop agency has projected a substantial increase in production, while global output is also expected to reach record levels in the 2026/27 season.

On a broader scale, global coffee production is forecast to rise modestly in 2025/26, driven by strong growth in robusta output, particularly from Vietnam. However, ending stocks are expected to decline, suggesting that supply tightness could still emerge in certain segments of the market.

Coffee Prices Fall as Supply Outlook Improves

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures declined sharply on Tuesday, with both arabica and robusta posting significant losses. Arabica reached its lowest level in about three weeks, while robusta dropped to its weakest nearby level in roughly eight months.

The recent downward trend is mainly linked to expectations of a large coffee harvest in Brazil. Updated projections for the 2026 to 2027 season indicate production exceeding 75 million bags, marking a strong increase compared to earlier estimates and last year’s output.

Global supply expectations are also shifting. Forecasts indicate a widening surplus in 2026, with estimates rising sharply from the previous year and pointing to the largest surplus in several years.

Vietnam, the world’s leading robusta producer, is adding further pressure on prices. Export volumes have increased notably, including strong growth in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year. Annual export data for 2025 also showed solid gains. Production is expected to rise as well, reaching the highest level in about four years.

Shipping disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have created additional challenges for the market. Higher freight costs, insurance expenses, and fuel prices are raising costs for importers and roasters despite the overall improvement in supply expectations.

Weather conditions in Brazil are providing some support to prices. Key growing regions such as Minas Gerais have received less rainfall than usual, which may affect crop development if dry conditions continue.

Inventory data shows mixed signals. Robusta stock levels have declined to multi month lows, suggesting tighter short term availability. In contrast, arabica inventories have increased, adding pressure on prices.

Brazil’s export performance has also shown some weakness. Shipments of green coffee fell significantly in February compared to the previous year, and total exports also recorded a noticeable decline.

Earlier in the year, coffee prices had already come under pressure. Arabica dropped sharply in February, reaching its lowest level in more than a year as expectations for strong production increased. Official forecasts in Brazil indicate higher output for both arabica and robusta.

At the global level, production is expected to reach a record in the 2026 to 2027 season, increasing by several million bags compared to the previous year.

Despite the overall bearish outlook, some tightening factors remain. Global export data shows a slight decline during the current marketing year, while ending stocks are expected to decrease modestly by the end of the 2025 to 2026 season.

The coffee market remains driven by the balance between strong supply expectations and localized constraints, with attention focused on weather conditions, export trends, and inventory levels.

Kazakhstanis Are Drinking More Coffee Despite Rising Prices

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Kazakhstan – Qahwa World

In 2025, people in Kazakhstan bought coffee 24% more often on average in the morning. Demand continued to grow despite higher prices. The average price of a cup increased by 8% to 1,310 tenge.

The data comes from Poster, a company that provides automation systems for cafes and restaurants.

Classic Drinks Still Lead

Cappuccino remains the most popular choice. Latte ranks second, followed by Americano.

At the same time, coffee culture in Kazakhstan continues to evolve. Alternative brewing methods and drinks such as bumble, an espresso-based drink with orange juice often served cold, are still less popular than classic options but are growing rapidly.

In 2025:

  • filter coffee sales increased by 65%
  • bumble sales tripled

These categories also show the fastest price growth, yet demand continues to rise.

According to Asylzhan Kazi, founder of the Espresso Day coffee chain, classic drinks account for the majority of sales, while seasonal offerings, especially cold drinks in summer, provide additional growth.

Average Coffee Prices in Kazakhstan

Drink Average Price (₸) Price Growth in 2025
Alternative (pour-over, Chemex, AeroPress, etc.) 2180 ₸ ↑ 5%
Filter coffee 1210 ₸ ↑ 14%
Latte 1200 ₸ ↑ 10.5%
Cappuccino 1160 ₸ ↑ 9.6%
Flat white 1050 ₸ ↑ 7.3%
Americano 880 ₸ ↑ 10.5%

Based on aggregated and anonymized sales data from Poster.

Cities with the Highest Coffee Consumption

Astana led in coffee consumption in 2025, with sales growing by about one third compared to the previous year.

Almaty also saw growth, though more moderate at around 16% with already strong demand.

A Morning Habit

Coffee is most often purchased before the start of the workday. About a quarter of daily revenue is generated between 8:00 and 10:00, with a peak at 9:00.

Around half of daily revenue is made before 13:00. This shows that starting the day with coffee is becoming an increasingly common habit.

The Economics of a Cup

Earlier reports showed that coffee shop profitability in Almaty does not exceed 16%, based on calculations by coffee shop owner Osmanzhan Iminzhanov, who analyzed the cost structure of a single cup.

The 10 Most Expensive Cappuccino Cities in 2025

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Dubai – Qahwa World

A simple cup of cappuccino can tell a story much larger than just a morning indulgence. It reflects the cost of living, wages, rents, taxes, currency strength, and local purchasing power. What feels like a small daily treat in one city can quickly become a notable expense in another.

Top Cities for the Priciest Cappuccinos (2025 Data)

According to Deutsche Bank’s “Mapping the World’s Prices 2025” report, which uses crowd-sourced Numbeo data from 69 major cities and converts prices into USD, the most expensive cappuccinos can be found in the following cities:

Rank City Country Cappuccino Price (USD)
1 Zurich Switzerland $6.77
2 Copenhagen Denmark $6.77
3 New York United States $5.95
4 San Francisco United States $5.90
5 Geneva Switzerland $5.86
6 Abu Dhabi UAE $5.84
7 Los Angeles United States $5.78
8 Chicago United States $5.67
9 Boston United States $5.62
10 Dubai UAE $5.53

European cities, particularly Swiss and Nordic ones, dominate the top rankings. High wages, steep rents, strong currencies such as the Swiss franc and Danish krone, and elevated operating costs all contribute to these high prices. Switzerland stands out with multiple cities in the top ten due to its exceptional cost of living.

Notable Price Differences Within Countries

  • In the United States, prices vary widely: New York ($5.95), San Francisco ($5.90), and Los Angeles ($5.78) are at the top, while other cities remain more moderate.
  • In Switzerland, Zurich and Geneva reflect the country’s generally high cost environment.
  • In the United Kingdom, Edinburgh ($5.28) and London ($5.19) are expensive but not among the world’s highest.
  • UAE cities like Abu Dhabi and Dubai are expensive due to imported goods, high expatriate demand, and a culture of premium cafés.

The Affordable Side: Where Cappuccino Remains Cheap

At the other end of the spectrum, cappuccinos can cost less than $2 in several cities:

  • Cairo, Egypt: ~$1.57 (cheapest in the dataset)
  • Rome, Italy: ~$1.79
  • Milan, Italy: ~$2.15
  • Delhi, India: ~$2.07
  • Mumbai, India: ~$2.58

Lower prices often stem from local sourcing, lower labor and rent costs, and a cultural focus on daily coffee or tea rituals.

The gap between the most and least expensive cities exceeds fourfold, highlighting global economic disparities.

Why Cappuccino Prices Reflect Bigger Economic Trends

Daily items like coffee are sensitive to multiple factors:

  • Labor costs: Barista wages in Zurich or Copenhagen are significantly higher than in Cairo.
  • Rent and real estate: Prime café locations in major financial hubs increase overhead costs.
  • Dependence on imports: Many high-cost cities rely on imported coffee beans, milk, and equipment.
  • Taxes and regulations: VAT, minimum wage laws, and sustainability standards all contribute to the final price.
  • Local purchasing power: Higher prices are often paired with higher salaries, meaning a $6.77 cappuccino in Zurich may feel more affordable relative to income than a $2 cappuccino in a lower-wage city.

A daily coffee habit (five days a week) costs approximately:

  • $33.85/month in Zurich or Copenhagen
  • ~$29.75/month in New York
  • Under $8/month in Cairo

Over a year, these expenses can total hundreds or thousands of dollars in high-cost cities, serving as a tangible reminder of inflation and urban economics.

Small pleasures like coffee make abstract concepts such as “cost of living” tangible. Whether budgeting for your daily ritual or analyzing global markets, the humble cappuccino offers a clear lens into local and international economies.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research – Mapping the World’s Prices 2025 (via Numbeo data). Prices are averages and may vary by café type and location.

Sharp Rise in Coffee Prices in Russia

Posted on by Qahwa World

Moscow – Qahwa World

A cup of coffee in Russia is no longer just a simple daily habit, it has become a growing expense that consumers are clearly beginning to feel. Within just one year, the equation has changed: the same amount of money that once covered five cups of coffee now barely pays for four.

Data indicates a noticeable increase in coffee prices across all categories. Ground coffee has risen by around 20%, while coffee beans have increased by approximately 16%. Instant coffee has also gone up, with the price of a small jar climbing from about 350 to 400 rubles.

This surge is not driven by local factors alone, but reflects broader global shifts. Unstable weather conditions in major producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam have reduced output, as droughts and frost have negatively impacted harvests.

At the same time, supply chains are under pressure due to higher transportation costs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, directly affecting the cost of coffee imports. In Russia, these pressures are compounded by the weakening of the local currency, making imports even more expensive.

You may read: 70% of Russians drink coffee daily

Additionally, businesses are facing rising operational costs, including taxes, energy prices, rent, and transportation. All of these factors ultimately feed into the final price paid by consumers.

Meanwhile, global demand for coffee continues to grow. [conclusion] Market estimates suggest that coffee consumption could increase by about one-third over the current decade, adding further pressure on supply and keeping prices elevated.

Given these conditions, analysts do not expect a significant decline in prices in the near term. Instead, prices are likely to continue rising at a moderate pace, potentially increasing by an additional 10–20% depending on the type and quality of coffee.

In the end, coffee is no longer just a stable, everyday commodity. it has become a reflection of broader changes in the global economy, from climate challenges to shifting supply chains and trade dynamics.