Tag: USDA FAS

Tanzania Coffee Production to Rise 10 Percent in 2026/27

Posted on by Qahwa World
Author: Qahwa World
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Dar es Salaam
Date: May 20, 2026
Executive Summary:

  • FAS Dar es Salaam forecasts Tanzania coffee production to reach 1.6 million 60 kg bags in MY 2026/27, a 10.3 percent increase year on year.
  • The growth is driven by rehabilitated fields from 2019 to 2024 reaching full maturity and rising coffee prices incentivizing farmer investment.
  • Cultivated area is expected to expand from 270,000 hectares to 275,000 hectares, with harvested area increasing to 270,000 hectares.
  • Green bean exports are projected to rise 2.9 percent to 1.4 million bags, supported by higher production and strong global demand.
  • The European Union remains Tanzania’s leading coffee importer, purchasing five times more than the United States.
  • Domestic consumption is projected to increase from 85,000 to 90,000 bags, driven by growing urban coffee culture in Dar es Salaam and Arusha.
  • Ending stocks are expected to rise sharply to 157,000 bags due to production outpacing consumption and export growth.

Tanzania’s coffee production is projected to reach 1.6 million 60 kilogram bags in the 2026/27 marketing year, up from 1.45 million bags the previous year, representing a 10.3 percent increase.

This growth is attributed to rehabilitated fields from 2019 to 2024 reaching full maturity. Rising coffee prices have incentivized farmers to expand plantations, invest in advanced fertilizers and equipment, and enhance efficiency.

Stable prices have strengthened cooperative societies, expanding support and training for growers. Favorable rainfall and steady temperatures have improved growing conditions, helping the sector recover from past droughts and increasing yields. Strong global demand continues to drive production and exports, reinforcing Tanzania’s position in the coffee market.

Crop Area Expansion

Tanzania’s coffee sector is expected to expand by nearly two percent, with cultivated area rising from 270,000 hectares in MY 2025/26 to 275,000 hectares in MY 2026/27. This rise is driven mainly by robusta farmers in Kagera and Kigoma who are opening new land and are supported by subsidized seedlings and strong farm gate prices. Harvested area is projected to increase by a similar percentage from 265,000 hectares to 270,000 hectares as new farms mature.

Coffee is the country’s leading cash crop, grown by over 40 percent of farmers and covering 39 percent of permanent cropland. Production occurs through three systems: pure stand smallholder farms in the south, coffee banana intercropping in the north and west, and larger estates. Overall, larger estates contribute under 10 percent of output. Most smallholders cultivate about 0.63 hectares with older trees and 400 to 2,000 trees per farm. Tanzania produces arabica in the northern and southern highlands and robusta almost entirely in Kagera near Lake Victoria.

Production and Inputs

Indicator MY 2024/25 MY 2025/26 MY 2026/27 (Forecast)
Area harvested (1000 HA) 265 265 270
Arabica production (1000 bags) 700 750 850
Robusta production (1000 bags) 650 700 750
Total production (1000 bags) 1,350 1,450 1,600
Bean exports (1000 bags) 1,250 1,360 1,400
Domestic consumption (1000 bags) 77 85 90
Ending stocks (1000 bags) 50 51 157

Tanzania is one of the three leading producers of the Colombian mild arabica variety, contributing about six percent of global supply. Roughly 320,000 smallholder farmers produce 90 percent of the crop, with about 100 large estates accounting for the rest.

Fertilizer subsidies in Tanzania primarily support tobacco, corn, and rice producers, with minimal assistance directed toward coffee farmers. In February 2026, the government reduced its fertilizer subsidy from covering roughly half the market price to a flat rate of approximately 0.38 US dollars per 50 kg bag. High fertilizer prices have long prevented farmers from applying adequate nutrients, keeping average use near 50 kilograms per hectare.

Policy and Trade

Tanzania is expanding climate resilient coffee varieties, widening cultivation, improving input support, and upgrading processing and agronomic practices. Recent reforms include a 30 million US dollar memorandum of understanding with Corus International that focuses on large scale seedling distribution, stronger disease control programs, digitalized auctions, and tighter export licensing rules. The policy aims to boost transparency, traceability, and competitiveness in premium markets.

The Tanzania Coffee Board’s directive of April 24, 2026, established benchmark prices of 4.61 US dollars per kilogram for processing unit parchment arabica, 3.65 dollars for home processed parchment arabica, 1.54 dollars for robusta dry cherry, and 1.96 dollars for hard arabica dry cherry.

Green bean exports are projected to rise 2.9 percent to 1.4 million bags in MY 2026/27, supported by higher production and strong global demand. The European Union remains Tanzania’s leading coffee importer, purchasing five times more than the United States. Japan also remains a key destination for Tanzanian coffee, particularly for premium arabica.

Export Destinations and Soluble Coffee Decline

Destination 2022 (bags) 2023 (bags) 2024 (bags) 2025 (bags)
European Union 588,354 749,451 652,891 596,487
Japan 281,684 204,779 200,254 193,718
United States 58,841 79,586 112,720 128,032
Morocco 49,678 93,941 52,226 69,192
India 17,928 36,326 50,934 30,594

The United States is rapidly emerging as a major growth market for Tanzanian coffee, with imports rising from 58,841 bags in 2022 to 128,032 bags in 2025. Meanwhile, soluble coffee exports from Tanzania collapsed dramatically between 2022 and 2025, falling from 10,858 bags to just 814 bags, a drop of more than 92 percent. The EU and Kenya, once the two largest buyers, slashed imports from several thousand bags to only 446 and 88 bags respectively by 2025.

Domestic Consumption and Stocks

Tanzania’s coffee consumption is projected to increase from 85,000 to 90,000 bags in 2026/27, driven primarily by a growing urban coffee culture in Dar es Salaam and Arusha. Rising incomes and urbanization are encouraging younger professional consumers to incorporate coffee into their daily routines. Tourism further reinforces demand, as hotels and operators serving visitors expand their coffee offerings.

Projected coffee stocks for MY 2026/27 are expected to rise sharply to 157,000 bags, up from 51,000 bags in MY 2025/26, reflecting a significant supply driven buildup. The surge is primarily the result of higher production outpacing the country’s relatively modest growth in domestic consumption and exports.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. How much will Tanzania coffee production increase in 2026/27?

FAS Dar es Salaam forecasts a 10.3 percent increase to 1.6 million 60 kg bags, driven by rehabilitated fields reaching maturity and rising prices.

2. What is driving the expansion of coffee area in Tanzania?

Robusta farmers in Kagera and Kigoma are opening new land, supported by subsidized seedlings and strong farm gate prices. Cultivated area is expected to reach 275,000 hectares.

3. Which countries are the top buyers of Tanzanian coffee?

The European Union remains the leading importer, followed by Japan and the United States, which has shown rapid growth in recent years.

4. What happened to Tanzania’s soluble coffee exports?

Soluble coffee exports collapsed by more than 92 percent between 2022 and 2025, falling from 10,858 bags to just 814 bags.

5. How is domestic coffee consumption changing in Tanzania?

Domestic consumption is projected to rise from 85,000 to 90,000 bags, driven by growing urban coffee culture in Dar es Salaam and Arusha and rising tourism demand.

6. Why are ending stocks expected to increase sharply?

Production is outpacing the relatively modest growth in domestic consumption and exports, leading to a supply driven buildup to 157,000 bags.

Qahwa World – Based on USDA FAS Coffee Annual report TZ2026-0003 by Benjamin Mtaki, approved by Damian Ferrese.
Published: May 20, 2026

Kenya Coffee Production to Jump 12 Percent in 2026/27 on New Plantings and Better Crop Care

Posted on by Qahwa World
Author: Qahwa World – Dubai
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Nairobi
Date: May 19, 2026

Executive Summary:

  • FAS Nairobi forecasts Kenya coffee production to reach 950,000 60 kg bags in MY 2026/27, a 12 percent increase over the previous estimate.
  • The growth is driven by new harvested area, improved crop care, and farmer reinvestment following two years of high prices.
  • Exports are expected to rise nearly 12 percent to 940,000 bags, while domestic consumption remains flat at 62,000 bags due to inflation and reduced urban coffee culture.
  • Kenya enacted a new Coffee Act in March 2026, transferring regulatory oversight from the Agriculture and Food Authority to the revived Coffee Board of Kenya.
  • The Coffee Research and Training Institute has been established as an independent body separate from KALRO.
  • Average coffee prices at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange fell to $268.77 per 50 kg bag in April 2026, a 28.4 percent drop from October 2025.
  • The United States remains Kenya’s top export destination with 17.2 percent market share, followed by Belgium and Germany.

Kenya’s coffee production is set for a steady recovery, with FAS Nairobi forecasting a 12 percent jump to 950,000 60 kilogram bags in the 2026/27 marketing year. The increase is attributed to new harvested area, improved crop care, and farmers’ ability to reinvest after two years of sustained high market prices. Growers now have the capital to apply more consistent fertilizer and control pests and diseases that often limit yields.

Coffee farms in the key Mount Kenya region flowered robustly following the severe drought that lasted until March 2026. The harvested area is projected to increase marginally to 106,000 hectares as recent plantings mature. Exports are expected to reach 940,000 bags, while domestic consumption is likely to remain flat at 62,000 bags due to reduced purchasing power and disruption of urban coffee culture.

Coffee Expansion Program and Regulatory Changes

Kenya is pursuing an aggressive coffee expansion program across the Central, Eastern, and Rift Valley regions. The initiative is being channeled through the New Kenya Planters Cooperative Union, which uses a government supported revolving fund to provide farmers with saplings and fertilizers. Several county governments have also launched localized grant programs to help farmers offset expansion costs.

The expansion has tested the country’s capacity to produce planting materials. The Coffee Research Institute faces a massive backlog despite efforts to ramp up production. In March 2026, Kenya enacted a new Coffee Act that transfers regulatory oversight from the Agriculture and Food Authority to the revived Coffee Board of Kenya. The law also establishes an independent Coffee Research and Training Institute, separate from the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization.

The new law codifies several reforms that have been ongoing since 2022, including the reorganization of the Nairobi Coffee Exchange and the establishment of the Direct Settlement System, a digital payment platform enabling direct, transparent, and faster payments from buyers to coffee farmers. Licensed brokers now handle coffee classification, sale catalogues, and both auction and direct sales. Licensing of coffee millers has moved from the Agriculture and Food Authority to county governments.

Production and Area Trends

Indicator MY 2024/25 MY 2025/26 MY 2026/27 (Forecast)
Area harvested (1000 HA) 105 105 106
Total production (1000 bags) 950 850 950
Bean exports (1000 bags) 923 800 900
Domestic consumption (1000 bags) 58 62 62
Ending stocks (1000 bags) 74 97 120

Over most of the last decade, peri-urban coffee growing areas underwent systematic uprooting to make way for residential housing, driven by demand for urban expansion. This trend was particularly rampant around Nairobi, Thika, Kiambu, and Nyeri. In the last two years, the trend has slowed due to significant stagnation in the real estate market. However, without a clear land use policy to safeguard arable land, analysts see this as a temporary reprieve that could reverse if coffee market prices slump.

Marketing and Price Trends

Roughly 80 percent of Kenya coffee is sold through producer cooperatives, with the remainder managed by corporate and individual estates. The Nairobi Coffee Exchange, a spot market founded in 1935, facilitates over 95 percent of coffee sales. Other transactions occur through direct contracts between producer agents and exporters. The Capital Markets Authority has licensed 16 coffee brokers for the exchange, of which eleven are farmer owned cooperatives or unions. Fifteen brokers actively traded during the 2025/26 season.

Average coffee prices at the exchange surged since MY 2024/25 due to tight global supply. This situation is expected to correct due to a projected two percent increase in global coffee production for 2025/26. In April 2026, the average price fell to $268.77 per 50 kg bag, marking a 28.4 percent drop from $375.24 in October 2025. The exchange trades in US dollars, and the Kenyan shilling’s stability at roughly 129 shillings per dollar has been key in keeping local producer returns steady.

Export Destinations and Trade Shifts

Destination MY 2022/23 (MT) MY 2023/24 (MT) MY 2024/25 (MT) Market Share 2024/25
United States 12,253 8,122 9,737 17.2%
Belgium 4,021 7,445 8,763 15.5%
Germany 9,741 7,609 7,173 12.7%
Netherlands 2,475 1,831 2,937 5.2%
France 193 268 2,826 5.0%
South Korea 3,085 2,492 2,817 5.0%

The United States remains Kenya’s dominant coffee export destination with 17.2 percent market share, recovering from a sharp decline in MY 2023/24. Belgium has shown consistent growth, doubling its volume over three years from 4,021 metric tons to 8,763 metric tons. France and Canada have followed rapid expansion paths. Germany, once holding nearly 18 percent of the market, has seen its volume erode to 7,173 metric tons or 12.7 percent. Sweden experienced a dramatic downturn from 9.5 percent market share to just 4.0 percent.

Kenya has launched traceability mechanisms to comply with the European Union Deforestation Regulation. Larger export firms must meet these requirements by December 30, 2026, while smaller enterprises have until June 30, 2027.

Domestic Consumption and Tourism Impact

Domestic coffee consumption is projected to plateau at 62,000 bags in MY 2026/27. Intense inflationary pressures are straining purchasing power, making coffee less accessible to average households. The proliferation of coffee houses and service outlets in Nairobi and other major cities has lost momentum. This decline is largely tied to the departure of several major non-governmental organizations and the withdrawal of key donor operations. These organizations historically supported the urban middle class and expatriate communities that formed the backbone of the high-end coffee market. Their exit has left a void in demand.

Kenya’s tourism industry, a primary driver of coffee consumption through tourist hotels and lodges, is facing a slowdown due to rising travel costs for local and international visitors. This downturn supports the outlook for a stagnant domestic coffee market.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. How much will Kenya’s coffee production increase in 2026/27?

FAS Nairobi forecasts a 12 percent increase to 950,000 60 kilogram bags, driven by new harvested area and improved crop care.

2. What is the new Coffee Act of 2026?

The new law transfers regulatory oversight from the Agriculture and Food Authority to the revived Coffee Board of Kenya and establishes an independent Coffee Research and Training Institute.

3. Why is domestic coffee consumption flat?

Inflation is reducing purchasing power, urban coffee house expansion has slowed due to NGO departures, and the tourism industry is facing a slowdown.

4. Which country is Kenya’s top coffee export destination?

The United States remains the top destination with 17.2 percent market share, followed by Belgium at 15.5 percent and Germany at 12.7 percent.

5. How have coffee prices at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange changed?

Prices fell to $268.77 per 50 kg bag in April 2026, a 28.4 percent drop from $375.24 in October 2025, due to increased global supply expectations.

6. What is the Direct Settlement System?

It is a digital payment platform established under the new Coffee Act that enables direct, transparent, and faster payments from buyers to coffee farmers.

Qahwa World – Based on USDA FAS Coffee Annual report KE2026-0011 by Kennedy Gitonga, approved by Damian Ferrese.
Published: May 19, 2026

Honduran coffee production surges to 5.53 million bags

Posted on by Qahwa World
IHCAFE forecasts continued growth in 2026/27 supported by plant nutrition, area expansion, and new plantations; exports rise 7.5% but differentiated coffee share drops sharply in early data.
TEGUCIGALPA — Qahwa World

Honduras will produce 5.53 million 60 kilogram bags of coffee in the 2025/26 marketing year, a 6.3 percent increase from the previous cycle, according to the annual coffee report published by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service in Tegucigalpa. Notably, the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 indicates production is then forecast to jump another 9 percent to 6.03 million bags in 2026/27, returning the country to output levels last seen in 2021/22.

The projected growth is driven by improved plant nutrition, favorable biennial production cycles, expansion of productive areas, enhanced pruning and crop management practices, and the maturation of newly established coffee plantations. Planted area is expected to grow by about 3 percent, or 10,000 hectares, in 2025/26, largely due to the introduction of the rust resistant Parainema variety. Furthermore, forecasts for Honduras coffee production in 2026 are shaped by these agronomic improvements and varietal shifts.

Honduras, one of Central America’s leading coffee producers and a top global exporter of Arabica, concentrates its crop in six key regions: Copan, Montecillos, Opalaca, Comayagua, El Paraiso, and Agalta. Elevations range between 1,000 and 1,600 meters above sea level, where Bourbon, Catuaí, Caturra, and Typica thrive. Looking ahead, the production forecast for Honduras coffee in 2026 continues to inform regional agricultural strategies.

Production outlook and leaf rust pressure

As of March 2026, coffee leaf rust incidence increased from 7.57 percent to 8.44 percent nationally, triggering a Level 4 yellow alert. The rise reflects higher lesion counts and leaf damage, supported by favorable environmental conditions and the unrestricted movement of harvest workers. Despite localized pressures, overall national rust levels remain relatively contained due to dry season conditions in major producing regions. This has important implications for the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026, since disease pressure can impact yields.

Table 1: Honduras coffee production & export forecasts (million 60 kg bags)
Marketing year Production Exports Ending stocks
MY 2023/24 (actual) 5.00 4.77 0.081
MY 2024/25 (revised) 5.20 4.96 0.178
MY 2025/26 (forecast) 5.53 5.03 0.435
MY 2026/27 (projection) 6.03 5.50 0.707
Table 2: Coffee leaf rust incidence by selected departments (March 2026)
Department Incidence (%)
Comayagua 14.08%
Cortes 12.49%
Santa Bárbara 11.17%
Yoro 10.08%
El Paraíso 9.81%
Intibucá 9.27%
Copán 6.76%

Earlier survey data from April 2025 indicated that 16.67 percent of sampled farms had medium rust incidence (5 to 10 percent), 7.80 percent had high incidence (10 to 15 percent), and 21.63 percent recorded very high incidence above 15 percent. Approximately 5 percent of the current crop remained unharvested as of March 2026, while 44 percent was still in the supply chain awaiting export or processing. This context is significant for anyone examining the country’s 2026 coffee production forecast in Honduras.

Prices, Brazil and market volatility

As of late March 2026, coffee reference prices have shown downward pressure, driven by improved global supply expectations and forecasts of a large Brazilian harvest. While prices have eased from early 2026 highs, they remain volatile. Retail prices have not yet adjusted significantly, reflecting typical lags due to contracts and inventories. In summary, the Honduras coffee production outlook for 2026 is closely tied to international price volatility and market forces.

Weather risks in Brazil, including the potential for early frosts in key producing regions, may place upward pressure on global prices in 2026. However, continued market volatility and rising production costs — including higher diesel prices and fertilizer supply uncertainty linked to the Persian Gulf conflict — may constrain producer margins. Price developments will depend on frost events in Brazil between May and July 2026, crop performance in Vietnam and Colombia, and currency movements, especially the BRL USD exchange rate. Meanwhile, these variables are monitored by analysts as they project the 2026 Honduras coffee production forecast.

Exports grow 7.5%, average price eases

Honduran coffee exports are projected to reach 5.03 million bags in 2025/26, a 7.47 percent increase from the revised 4.96 million bags in 2024/25. For 2026/27, exports are forecast to rise another 9 percent to 5.50 million bags. As of April 2026, Honduras had already exported 3.17 million bags, a 38 percent increase from 2.30 million bags during the same period in 2024/25. The average export price was $439.47 per 60 kg bag, a 2.70 percent decrease from $451.70, but total export value jumped 33 percent to $1.39 billion. These impressive results play a pivotal role in shaping the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 and future export trends.

Sales contracts for 2025/26 totaled 4.10 million bags, up 27 percent year on year. Honduras has expanded market access, including under its free trade agreement with South Korea, now the eleventh largest export market for coffee. Globally, Honduras ranks as the eighth largest coffee exporter, the third largest in the Americas, and the largest in Central America. Finally, the Honduras coffee production forecast 2026 continues to be an important reference for market participants and policy decisions.

Table 3: Top destinations for Honduran green coffee exports (2025, thousand 60 kg bags)
Country Volume (1,000 bags)
United States 1,476
Germany 983
Belgium 551
Italy 231
Japan 186
Canada 229
Sweden 149
United Kingdom 147

Domestic consumption and rising imports

Coffee consumption in Honduras is projected to increase 9 percent in 2026/27, supported by modest GDP growth of 3.8 to 4 percent. Per capita apparent consumption is estimated at 4 to 5 kilograms per year. The growing presence of coffee bars in shopping malls, gas stations, and supermarkets, along with a young population consuming diverse coffee drinks, drives demand. Keurig coffee pods and machines are a new trend sold at supermarket chains. It is clear that changing consumption patterns also play into the nation’s coffee production forecast 2026 for Honduras.

Despite being a major producer, Honduras imports coffee to meet domestic demand for soluble coffee and lower cost blends. Total imports are projected to reach 160,000 bags in 2026/27, up 16.8 percent from 137,000 bags in 2025/26. In 2024/25, green coffee bean imports totaled 96,216 bags, primarily from Nicaragua (91,731 bags). Soluble coffee imports from October 2024 through February 2025 reached 30,992 bags, up from 27,516 bags the previous year. Key suppliers included Mexico, the United States, Colombia, Guatemala, India, Malaysia, and Costa Rica. Market dynamics that affect imports are increasingly relevant for the Honduras coffee production forecast looking ahead to 2026.

Differentiated coffee: a sharp shift in early 2025/26

During the 2024/25 harvest, 2.6 million 60 kg bags of differentiated coffee (certified and specialty) were sold, accounting for 55 percent of total exports. The five leading certifications were UTZ, Organic, Fair Trade/Organic, 4C, and Rainforest Alliance. However, preliminary data for 2025/26 shows a significant decline: differentiated coffee fell to 37 percent of total volume, or 1.24 million bags exported to date. This 15 percentage point drop may reflect timing of shipments, production challenges, or evolving market dynamics. Final figures will determine if this is a temporary fluctuation or a sustained trend. The results for differentiated segments will ultimately affect 2026 Honduras coffee production forecast calculations.

Table 4: Differentiated coffee production (thousand 60 kg bags, harvest seasons)
Harvest season Differentiated coffee Total harvest % participation
2019/20 3,020 5,506 55%
2020/21 3,220 5,873 55%
2021/22 2,523 4,701 54%
2022/23 3,087 5,342 58%
2023/24 2,610 4,687 56%
2024/25 2,436 4,804 52%
2025/26* 1,242 3,325 37%
* preliminary figures to April 2026. Source: IHCAFE

Specialty coffee in Honduras is typically grown above 3,000 feet. Currently, specialty coffees are produced under 22 programs including UTZ, 4C, Rainforest Alliance, Organic, Bird Friendly, Starbucks C.A.F.E. Practices, and Cup of Excellence. The overall quality of exported coffee in 2025/26 was classified as 49 percent Strictly High Grown (SHG), 43 percent High Grade (HG), and 9 percent Standard Grade (STD). With specialty coffee trends evolving, analysts will adjust the Honduras coffee production and exports forecast for 2026 accordingly.

Table 5: Quality exports in MY 2025/26 (60 kg bags, to date)
Quality grade Volume (bags) Average price (USD) Share of volume
SHG (Strictly High Grown) 1,618,979 $440.19 49%
HG (High Grade) 1,420,051 $448.27 43%
SL (Screen size >18) 286,479 $361.44 9%

Small producers and policy support

Many small and medium coffee producers face financial constraints, with limited access to credit. According to IHCAFE data for 2024/25, 86,895 small farmers harvested 179,271 hectares and produced 2.63 million bags. Medium producers (6,359 farmers) produced 1.66 million bags, and 374 large farmers produced 515,533 bags. Their contributions are notable in the broader context of the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026.

Table 6: Producers by size, area harvested and production (2024/25)
Farmer type Farmers registered Area harvested (Ha) Production (60 kg bags)
Small 86,895 179,271 2,627,164
Medium 6,359 85,040 1,661,733
Large 374 21,246 515,533

The government has implemented several measures to support the sector, including a sales tax exemption on coffee (Decree 352 2022) that provides fiscal relief of approximately $183 million. IHCAFE’s “Renew without stopping Production” program supports 33,000 producers covering 250,000 blocks. A climate change policy aims to foster resilience through six five year phases from 2022 to 2050. The National Coffee Council, the highest regulatory body, guides policy on production, climate change, labor, and gender inclusion. The sector adopted a Gender Inclusion Policy in 2021. Policy initiatives such as these directly impact Honduras coffee production forecasts for 2026 and beyond.

As of March 2026, IHCAFE continues providing technical support to help growers meet the European Union Deforestation Regulation, aiming to reduce deforestation tied to agricultural production and foster environmentally responsible supply chains. Overall, actions to comply with international standards also influence the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 as the industry adapts to global changes.

Methodological note: All figures are based on the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report “Coffee Annual – Tegucigalpa – Honduras – HO2026-0002” published April 29, 2026. Marketing years (MY) run from October to September. Differentiated coffee includes certified and specialty coffees. No data from outside the report has been used. Projections for MY 2026/27 are preliminary and subject to revision.

 

Brazil Weather and U.S. Tariffs Drive Coffee Prices to Multi-Month Highs

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai, August 19, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices surged on Tuesday, with arabica futures climbing to a 2.25-month high and robusta reaching a two-month high, supported by dry conditions in Brazil’s key growing regions and tightening U.S. supplies following new tariffs on Brazilian coffee.

September arabica coffee (KCU25) rose 1.85% (+6.35¢/lb), while September ICE robusta (RMU25) gained 4.04% (+$168). The rise reflects mounting concern over Brazil’s weather, particularly in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-producing state, where Somar Meteorologia reported no rainfall during the week ending August 16.

Market support is also coming from the United States, where buyers are avoiding new contracts for Brazilian coffee due to a 50% tariff imposed on imports. Brazil typically supplies about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee, making the tariff impact significant for roasters and traders.

Brazil’s July export figures further underscored supply concerns. According to the Trade Ministry, unroasted coffee exports fell 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons. Exporter group Cecafé reported that green coffee shipments dropped 28% y/y to 2.4 million bags, while total coffee exports fell to 2.7 million bags. From January to July, Brazil’s overall exports declined 21% to 22.2 million bags.

Certified exchange inventories remain tight. ICE arabica stocks fell to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags on August 14 before recovering slightly to 733,105 bags this week. ICE robusta stocks dropped to a three-week low of 6,749 lots, down from late-July’s two-year high of 7,029 lots.

On the supply side, Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest is advancing. Research firm Safras & Mercado estimates the crop was 94% complete as of August 6, with robusta nearly finished (99%) and arabica at 91%. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, reported its members had completed 80.4% of their harvest by August 8.

Beyond Brazil, Vietnam’s coffee industry continues to influence robusta prices. Drought reduced 2023/24 production by 20% y/y to 1.47 million metric tons, the lowest in four years, while 2024 exports fell 17.1% to 1.35 million metric tons. However, recovery signs emerged with January–July 2025 exports up 6.9% y/y to 1.05 million metric tons.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports in June rose 7.3% y/y to 11.69 million bags, though October–June totals slipped 0.2% to 104.14 million bags.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects 2025/26 world coffee production at a record 178.7 million bags, up 2.5% year-on-year. Arabica output is expected to fall 1.7% to 97 million bags, while robusta is forecast to rise 7.9% to nearly 82 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to grow 4.9% to 22.8 million bags.

However, trader Volcafe sees a very different balance: a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025/26, the fifth consecutive year of shortages and larger than the 5.5 million bag deficit recorded in 2024/25. This highlights continued market tightness despite record overall supply projections.