Coffee Prices Fall 8.7% as Brazil’s Record Crop Arrives

Posted on October 18, 2026October 18, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, September 2026
Date: October 2026

Coffee Prices Fall 8.7% as Brazil’s Record Crop Arrives

Executive Summary

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 262.18 US cents/lb in September 2026, down 8.7% from August.
All four ICO group indicators declined, with Brazilian Naturals falling the most at 9.9%.
Brazil’s record crop reaching the market increased availability and weighed on prices.
Low certified Arabica stocks and El Niño uncertainty provided some support but could not halt the decline.
Global green bean exports rose 15.6% to 10.94 million bags in August, driven by Robustas and Brazilian Naturals.
For the first time on record, the Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell below 60% for the first 11 months of a coffee year.
The ICO launched a new Coffee Market Intelligence Platform (data.ico.org) to make market data more accessible.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 262.18 US cents per pound in September 2026. This was an 8.7% decrease from August 2026.

Prices ranged between 248.44 and 279.85 US cents/lb. The month opened at its high and closed at 261.60 US cents/lb on September 30, which was 7.0% below the August close of 281.15.

The decline was broad-based. Every ICO group indicator fell by between 7.3% and 9.9%. The largest fall was in Brazilian Naturals, the group most directly exposed to Brazil’s harvest.

Increased availability from Brazil’s record crop and expectations of ample supply weighed on prices. Low certified Arabica stocks and uncertainty surrounding El Niño provided some support. However, these factors were not enough to reverse the downward trend.

Price Movements Across Groups

Brazilian Naturals prices fell 9.9% to 290.19 US cents/lb. Colombian Milds declined 8.1% to 356.15 US cents/lb. Other Milds dropped 8.8% to 329.44 US cents/lb.

Robustas declined 7.3% to 167.49 US cents/lb. On the futures markets, London ICE Robusta prices fell 8.0% to 154.28 US cents/lb. New York ICE Arabica prices dropped 10.4% to 280.68 US cents/lb.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets narrowed 13.2% to 126.40 US cents/lb. Every Arabica-Robusta differential narrowed. This reflects the larger percentage declines in Arabica prices as Brazil’s much larger Arabica crop of 46.3 million bags reached the market.

Meanwhile, CONAB’s lower Robusta estimate and the early-month resilience of Robusta cushioned its prices. Brazil’s Robusta crop is estimated at a record 25.1 million bags, up 11.1%.

Volatility also declined. The I-CIP volatility was 10.0% in September, 3.7 percentage points below August’s 13.7%. New York and London futures volatility stood at 13.4% and 9.7% respectively.

Certified Stocks Rise Modestly

US certified Arabica stocks rose to 0.27 million bags at the end of September. This was up from 0.24 million bags at the end of August.

London certified Robusta stocks rose to a 10-month high of 0.87 million bags. This was up from 0.83 million bags at the end of August.

Despite these increases, Arabica stocks remain historically low. The modest recovery did not offset the broader bearish sentiment driven by Brazil’s record crop.

Exports: Strong August Growth

Global green bean exports totaled 10.94 million bags in August 2026. This was a 15.6% increase from 9.46 million bags in August 2025.

The August upturn was in sharp contrast to the usual seasonal decline between July and August. This helped explain the double-digit growth rate.

Robusta green bean exports increased 22.4% to 4.36 million bags. Brazilian Naturals rose 21.3% to 3.57 million bags. Other Milds increased 6.6% to 1.91 million bags.

Colombian Milds were the only group to record a decline. Exports fell 5.6% to 1.09 million bags. This marked the group’s 10th month of negative growth in the current coffee year.

Total Arabica exports increased to 6.58 million bags, up 11.6% from 5.89 million bags in August 2025. Despite this, the Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 59.6% from 63.5% a year earlier.

This marked the first time on record that the Arabica share fell below 60% for the volume shipped in the first 11 months of a coffee year.

Robusta’s share of world production is estimated to have risen to 43.1% of total output in 2025/26. This is up from an average of 41.7% in 2023/24 to 2024/25. This larger share and changing tastes among some coffee drinkers may help explain the shift in export composition.

Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60 kg bags)

Coffee Group	August 2025	August 2026	Change
Robustas	3.57	4.36	+22.4%
Brazilian Naturals	2.94	3.57	+21.3%
Other Milds	1.79	1.91	+6.6%
Colombian Milds	1.16	1.09	-5.6%

Exports by Region

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 14.6% to 12.55 million bags in August 2026. This was up from 10.95 million bags in August 2025.

South America was the main driver of the August upturn. Exports rose 20.2% to 5.98 million bags. Brazil led with a 34.5% increase to 4.28 million bags. This was Brazil’s fifth consecutive month of positive growth.

Asia & Oceania exports rose 23.1% to 4.03 million bags. Vietnam led with a 48.0% increase to 2.24 million bags.

Africa’s exports fell 1.8% to 1.74 million bags. This marked the sixth consecutive month of negative growth. Uganda drove the decline with an 8.8% drop to an estimated 0.78 million bags.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America fell 14.3% to 0.79 million bags. This was the fourth consecutive month of negative growth, driven mainly by Nicaragua and Mexico.

Soluble coffee exports rose 8.1% to 1.56 million bags. Vietnam was the largest exporter with 0.43 million bags. Roasted bean exports were unchanged at 0.05 million bags.

New Market Intelligence Platform

In September, the ICO launched the Coffee Market Intelligence Platform at data.ico.org. It is a free-to-view interactive tool combining daily market indicators with data on monthly trade, annual production and consumption.

The platform’s basic dashboards are available free of charge to all users. They provide visibility of current-year prices and stock data, as well as aggregated trade and production statistics for the current and previous years.

ICO Members also have free access to historical data dating back to 1963. Commercial organizations requiring detailed historical data or bulk datasets can purchase an annual statistical subscription.

The platform was unveiled at a press conference in Geneva during the 142nd Session of the International Coffee Council. The launch came ahead of the first UN-recognized International Coffee Day on 1 October.

The aim is to make coffee market data more accessible. The platform will run in parallel to the existing ICO World Coffee Statistical Database for a few months before the latter is phased out.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices fall in September 2026?

The ICO composite price fell 8.7% to 262.18 US cents/lb, down from 287.29 US cents/lb in August.

What caused the decline?

Increased availability from Brazil’s record crop and expectations of ample supply weighed on prices. Low certified Arabica stocks and El Niño uncertainty provided only limited support.

How did the different coffee groups perform?

All four groups declined. Brazilian Naturals fell 9.9%, Other Milds 8.8%, Colombian Milds 8.1%, and Robustas 7.3%.

What happened to the Arabica share of exports?

The Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 59.6% from 63.5%. This was the first time on record it fell below 60% for the first 11 months of a coffee year.

How did certified stocks change?

US certified Arabica stocks rose modestly to 0.27 million bags. London certified Robusta stocks rose to a 10-month high of 0.87 million bags.

What is the new ICO platform?

The Coffee Market Intelligence Platform (data.ico.org) is a free-to-view interactive tool combining daily market indicators with monthly trade, annual production and consumption data.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, September 2026 | Date: October 2026

ICO Launches Interactive Coffee Market Data Platform

Posted on October 3, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO)
Author: Qahwa World
Date: October 3, 2026

ICO Launches Interactive Coffee Market Data Platform

The ICO launched the Coffee Market Intelligence Platform at data.ico.org.
The free interactive tool combines daily market indicators, trade, production, and consumption data.
Data is presented on an interactive 3D globe rather than static tables.
The launch took place during the 142nd Session of the International Coffee Council in Geneva.
It precedes the first UN-recognized International Coffee Day on October 1.
ICO Members gain free access to historical data dating back to 1963.
Coffee supports livelihoods for at least 12.5 million families worldwide.

The International Coffee Organization launched its Coffee Market Intelligence Platform on September 30, 2026. The platform is a free-to-view interactive tool available at data.ico.org. It combines daily market indicators with data on monthly trade, annual production, and consumption.

Producers, traders, policymakers, journalists, and other stakeholders can now explore the key elements of the global coffee market together. Relevant statistics are all available in one place.

Launch at the International Coffee Council

The platform was unveiled at a press conference in Geneva, Switzerland. The event took place during the 142nd Session of the International Coffee Council. It came ahead of the first UN-recognized International Coffee Day on October 1.

The launch took place alongside a presentation of the ICO’s “Coffee Is Part of the Solution” campaign. This campaign highlights progress on sustainability in the coffee sector.

Making Coffee Market Information More Accessible

Coffee market information has traditionally been dispersed across different publications, databases, and commercial services. The new platform addresses this fragmentation by bringing key datasets together.

It includes the daily ICO Composite Indicator Price and its four group indicators. It also features New York and London futures prices, monthly exchange-certified stocks, detailed trade data, and country-by-country trade flows. Annual production and consumption data are included as well.

“Good data cannot eliminate volatility, but it can reduce uncertainty. When stakeholders work from a shared and credible evidence base, they can make better decisions about production, investment, trade, risk management and sustainability.”

— Vanúsia Nogueira, Executive Director of the ICO

**Data Available on the Coffee Market Intelligence Platform**
Category	Data Included
Daily Indicators	ICO Composite Indicator Price and four group indicators
Futures Prices	New York and London futures prices
Stocks	Monthly exchange-certified stocks
Trade	Detailed trade data and country-by-country trade flows
Production	Annual production data by country
Consumption	Annual consumption data by country

An Interactive 3D Globe

Rather than presenting data in static tables, the platform displays it on an interactive 3D globe. This makes current-year statistics freely accessible. Anyone from cooperative managers to journalists can read the market as a single interconnected system. It functions as a one-stop shop for coffee data.

“Coffee provides livelihoods for at least 12.5 million families and supports a complex global value chain. Better access to credible information may also support farmers with investments in land or processing machines, for example,” added Vanusia.

Built on the ICO’s Own Statistical Record

Export data comes primarily from ICO Members. Under the International Coffee Agreement, exporting countries issue a Certificate of Origin for every shipment. They also report monthly export statistics to the Secretariat. Importing countries report imports, re-exports, and inventories.

These figures are cross-checked against partner-country customs data. For non-member countries, they are checked against published national records and international trade databases. Production and consumption figures combine official national estimates with the Secretariat’s own estimations. These are reconciled through a supply-demand balance so that each country’s figures are internally consistent. Where a country cannot yet supply a series, the ICO estimates it from Certificates of Origin, partner data, and industry sources.

Free Access and Membership Benefits

The platform’s dashboards are available free of charge to all users. They provide visibility of current-year prices and stock data, as well as aggregated trade and production statistics for the current and previous years.

ICO Members also have free access to historical data dating back to 1963. Relevant information may be provided to intergovernmental organizations and academic researchers upon request. Commercial organizations requiring detailed historical data or bulk datasets can purchase an annual statistical subscription.

**Access Levels by User Type**
User Type	Access Level
All users	Free access to current-year prices, stocks, aggregated trade and production
ICO Members	Free access to historical data back to 1963
Intergovernmental organizations and academics	Relevant information upon request
Commercial organizations	Annual statistical subscription for bulk or detailed historical data

About the International Coffee Organization

The ICO is the only intergovernmental organization supporting exporting and importing countries to improve the sustainability of the coffee sector. It provides a high-level forum for all public and private stakeholders in the sector. The organization also provides official statistics on coffee production, trade, and consumption. Additionally, it supports the development and funding of technical cooperation projects and public-private partnerships.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Coffee Market Intelligence Platform?It is a free interactive tool launched by the ICO that combines daily market indicators with data on trade, production, and consumption, available at data.ico.org.

When was the platform launched?The platform was launched on September 30, 2026, during the 142nd Session of the International Coffee Council in Geneva, Switzerland.

What data does the platform include?It includes the ICO Composite Indicator Price, futures prices, certified stocks, detailed trade data, trade flows, and annual production and consumption data.

Is the platform free to use?Yes, the dashboards are free for all users. ICO Members also get free access to historical data dating back to 1963.

How is the data presented?The data is presented on an interactive 3D globe rather than in static tables, making current-year statistics easy to explore.

How many families depend on coffee?Coffee provides livelihoods for at least 12.5 million families and supports a complex global value chain.

ICO Coffee Market Report August 2026: Prices Hold Steady

Posted on September 16, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, August 2026
Date: September 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report August 2026: Prices Hold Steady

Executive Summary

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.29 US cents/lb in August 2026, effectively unchanged from July (287.26 US cents/lb).
A mid-month rally, driven by El Niño fears and tight Arabica supplies, was reversed by favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of increased supply.
Colombian Milds rose 1.1% to 387.46 US cents/lb, while Other Milds gained 0.7% to 361.31 US cents/lb. Robustas fell 2.2% to 180.63 US cents/lb.
US certified Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags, the lowest level since 1999. London Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags, a nine-month high.
Global green bean exports rose 6.3% to 10.76 million bags in July, driven entirely by a 32% surge in Robusta shipments.
World coffee production is estimated to rise 4.4% to 183.6 million bags in 2025/26, while consumption is projected to decline 0.8%.
The global market is projected to record a surplus of 3.0 million bags in 2025/26, the first after four consecutive years of deficit.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.29 US cents per pound in August 2026. This was effectively unchanged from July 2026, when it averaged 287.26 US cents per pound.

The month followed an inverted V-shaped pattern. Prices softened early, then rallied from August 17 to 25. A sharp correction on August 26 and 27 brought the indicator back to its opening level.

The mid-month rally was driven by heightened expectations of a strong El Niño event. These concerns were compounded by historically low certified Arabica stocks. Prices eased toward the end of the month as favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of a substantial surplus reduced the risk premium.

Price Movements and Market Volatility

Colombian Milds and Other Milds recorded modest gains. Colombian Milds rose 1.1% to average 387.46 US cents/lb. Other Milds increased 0.7% to 361.31 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals edged up 0.5% to 322.24 US cents/lb.

In contrast, Robustas declined 2.2% to 180.63 US cents/lb. On the futures markets, London ICE Robusta prices fell 3.0% to 167.63 US cents/lb. New York ICE Arabica prices expanded 0.9% to 313.20 US cents/lb.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets expanded 5.8% to 145.56 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential widened 5.7% to 26.15 US cents/lb.

Volatility declined across most indicators. The intra-day volatility of the I-CIP stood at 13.7% in August, a 1.3 percentage point decrease from July. Colombian Milds volatility fell to 14.6%, while Other Milds dropped to 15.7%.

Brazilian Naturals volatility decreased 1.6 percentage points to 16.3%. Robusta volatility remained stable at 11.0%. At the New York and London futures markets, volatilities were 19.9% and 13.2%, respectively.

Diverging Certified Stocks

Certified stocks diverged sharply between the two futures markets. London certified Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags. This was their highest level in nine months.

In contrast, US certified Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags. This was the lowest level since 1999. It is approximately 68% below the level held a year earlier.

Several factors drove this divergence. El Niño risks raised concerns about future Arabica supplies. At the same time, disruption in Colombia and slower harvesting in Brazil limited near-term availability. A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck western Colombia on August 10, halting operations at the Pacific port of Buenaventura.

Brazil’s harvest also lagged behind its historical pace. Safras & Mercado reported that the 2026/27 harvest was 90% complete as of August 12, against 97% a year earlier and a five-year average of 94%.

Exports by Coffee Group

Global green bean exports totaled 10.76 million bags in July 2026. This was a 6.3% increase from 10.12 million bags in July 2025. It marked the fourth month of positive year-on-year growth in the first 10 months of 2025/26.

The increase was driven entirely by Robustas. Robusta green bean exports surged 32.0% to 4.98 million bags. Vietnam led the increase with a 87.4% jump to 2.4 million bags. Brazil also contributed, with its Robusta exports up 83.7% to 0.86 million bags.

In contrast, all Arabica groups recorded declines. Colombian Milds exports fell 11.1% to 1.04 million bags. Brazilian Naturals decreased 10.0% to 2.46 million bags. Other Milds fell 6.7% to 2.27 million bags.

Total Arabica exports decreased to 5.78 million bags in July 2026. This was down 8.9% from 6.35 million bags in July 2025. As a result, the Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 59.7% from 63.6% a year earlier.

Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60 kg bags)

Coffee Group	July 2025	July 2026	Change
Robustas	3.77	4.98	+32.0%
Colombian Milds	1.17	1.04	-11.1%
Other Milds	2.44	2.27	-6.7%
Brazilian Naturals	2.74	2.46	-10.0%

Exports by Region

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 3.3% to 12.23 million bags in July 2026. Two of the four regions recorded increases. Asia & Oceania and South America posted gains, while Africa and the Caribbean, Mexico & Central America recorded declines.

Asia & Oceania led the upturn with a 17.6% increase to 4.38 million bags. Vietnam was the main driver, with exports up 43.7% to 2.83 million bags. The region’s year-to-date exports rose to 43.59 million bags.

South America’s exports increased 3.1% to 4.57 million bags. This was the third consecutive month of positive growth. Brazil drove the increase with a 10.9% rise to 3.06 million bags. However, Colombia partly offset this with a 14.7% decline to 1.01 million bags.

Africa’s exports decreased 6.7% to 1.90 million bags. Ethiopia and Uganda drove the decline, with combined exports falling 15.9% to an estimated 1.52 million bags. Uganda’s decline follows a record performance in 2024/25 and may reflect normalization from an exceptionally high benchmark.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America decreased 15.9% to 1.39 million bags. This was the third consecutive month of negative growth, driven mainly by Mexico and Nicaragua.

Soluble coffee exports decreased 16.7% to 1.4 million bags in July 2026. Roasted bean exports rose 70.6% to 0.07 million bags.

Global Supply and Demand Outlook

The ICO published updated supply and demand statistics on September 10, 2026. World coffee production increased 2.5% to 175.9 million bags in 2024/25. For 2025/26, production is estimated to rise 4.4% to 183.6 million bags.

Arabica production is projected to increase 2.8% to 104.4 million bags in 2025/26. This reflects the higher-yielding phase of the biennial cycle in South America. Robusta output is estimated to jump 6.5% to 79.2 million bags.

South America remains the world’s largest producer, with an estimated output of 84.1 million bags. This represents 45.8% of global production. Asia & Oceania follows with 29.7%, then Africa with 13.6% and the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico with 10.8%.

World coffee consumption increased 4.3% to 182.2 million bags in 2024/25. Growth was mainly driven by North America and Europe. In 2025/26, consumption is estimated to decline 0.8%, partly reflecting normalization after unusually strong growth.

Europe remained the largest consuming region, accounting for 30.1% of global consumption in 2024/25. South America is estimated to overtake North America as the third-largest consuming region in 2025/26.

Following four consecutive years of deficit from 2021/22 to 2024/25, the global coffee market is projected to record a surplus of 3.0 million bags in 2025/26.

Table 2: World Supply, Demand and Balance (million 60 kg bags)

Item	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26
Arabica Production	101.1	101.6	104.4
Robusta Production	70.5	74.4	79.2
Total Production	171.6	175.9	183.6
Consumption	174.6	182.2	180.6
Balance	-3.0	-6.3	+3.0

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in August 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 287.29 US cents/lb in August 2026, effectively unchanged from July 2026 (287.26 US cents/lb).

What caused the mid-month price rally and subsequent correction?

A rally from August 17 to 25 was driven by El Niño fears and tight Arabica supplies. It was reversed by favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of a substantial surplus.

Why did certified coffee stocks diverge?

US Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags (lowest since 1999) due to El Niño risks and supply disruptions. London Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags.

How did coffee exports perform in July 2026?

Global green bean exports rose 6.3% to 10.76 million bags. Robusta exports surged 32%, while all Arabica groups declined.

What is the global supply and demand outlook?

World production is estimated at 183.6 million bags in 2025/26 (+4.4%), with consumption at 180.6 million bags (-0.8%). This results in a surplus of 3.0 million bags.

What was the key development in certified stocks?

US certified Arabica stocks fell to their lowest level since 1999 at 0.24 million bags, while London Robusta stocks reached a nine-month high of 0.83 million bags.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, August 2026 | Date: September 2026

Coffee Prices Record Largest Monthly Surge Since 2021

Posted on August 29, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, July 2026
Date: August 2026According to recent reports, coffee prices experienced the largest monthly surge in 2026.

Coffee Prices Record Largest Monthly Surge Since 2021

Executive Summary

The ICO composite price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.
Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta: Colombian Milds +18.1%, Brazilian Naturals +17.9%, Robustas +9.1%.
Record daily gains of 8.2% (July 6) and 9.3% (July 9) marked the largest increases in 21 years.
El Niño probability reached 97% through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event.
Brazil’s harvest was only 64% complete by July 15, below the 5‑year average of 70%, due to wet conditions.
US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024.
London Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags, widening the price gap between the two varieties.

Global coffee prices recorded their largest monthly increase since 2021 in July 2026. The ICO Composite Indicator Price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents per pound.

Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta. Colombian Milds increased 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb. Other Milds increased 16.5% to 358.65 US cents/lb. Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.

The price rally was driven by several factors. Weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tightening Arabica supplies all played a role.

On July 6, the composite price rose 8.2% in a single day. On July 9, it rose another 9.3%. These were the largest daily increases observed in 21 years.

El Niño fears intensified significantly. On July 9, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97% probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027. There was also an 81% probability of a very strong event during October-December 2026.

This outlook pointed to increased risks of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies. These could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and 2027.

Weather factors were a key driver. Unusually wet conditions in parts of Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying operations. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s harvest was only 64% complete as of July 15. This compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%.

Wet conditions also caused uneven maturation. Multiple flowering cycles led to cherries at different stages of ripeness. This required more selective picking and sorting, making harvesting slower and more costly.

US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags in July. This was their lowest level since January 2024. The decline signaled significantly tighter immediately deliverable supplies of Arabica.

In contrast, London certified Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags. This divergence widened the price gap between Arabica and Robusta and increased the price differentials.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 0.98 million bags on July 31. This signaled limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions.

Table 1: Key Price Movements (US cents/lb)

Indicator	June 2026	July 2026	Change
ICO Composite	248.90	287.26	+15.4%
Colombian Milds	324.60	383.39	+18.1%
Brazilian Naturals	272.01	320.69	+17.9%
Robustas	169.39	184.78	+9.1%

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise in July 2026?

The ICO composite price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents/lb, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

What caused the price surge?

El Niño fears (97% probability), wet weather in Brazil slowing the harvest, and falling Arabica stocks were the main drivers.

How did Arabica and Robusta prices perform differently?

Arabica prices rose faster (+18.1% for Colombian Milds) while Robusta rose 9.1%, widening the price gap.

What happened to certified coffee stocks?

US Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags (lowest since Jan 2024), while London Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags.

What is the El Niño outlook?

There is a 97% probability of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027, with an 81% chance of a very strong event in late 2026.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, July 2026 | Date: August 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026: Prices Surge 15.4% on Supply Fears

Posted on August 29, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, July 2026
Date: August 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026: Prices Surge 15.4% on Supply Fears

Executive Summary

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, up 15.4% from June, with Arabica prices outpacing Robusta.
Record daily gains of 8.2% on July 6 and 9.3% on July 9 marked the largest increases in 21 years.
Colombian Milds rose 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb; Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb; Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.
US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024, tightening immediately deliverable supplies.
ICE margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures surged from $5,685 to over $21,000 in early July, reducing liquidity and amplifying volatility.
El Niño probability reached 97% through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event, heightening supply concerns.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest was only 64% complete by July 15, below the 5‑year average of 70%, due to wet conditions.
Global green bean exports rose 0.8% to 10.48 million bags in June, driven by Brazilian Naturals (+7.1%).

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents per pound in July 2026. This was a 15.4% increase from June 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta prices. The Colombian Milds increased 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb. The Other Milds increased 16.5% to 358.65 US cents/lb. Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.

The widening price gap was reflected in higher differentials. The arbitrage between New York and London futures markets expanded by 36.4% to 137.61 US cents/lb.

Volatility also rose sharply. On July 6, the I-CIP rose 8.2% in a single day. On July 9, it rose another 9.3%. Together, these were the largest daily increases observed in 21 years.

Several factors contributed to the price surge. Weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tightening Arabica supplies all played a role. US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest level since January 2024.

ICE Margin Requirements and Market Liquidity

In response to heightened market risk, ICE Futures U.S. increased margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures multiple times in early July. The margin rate for the September 2026 contract rose from $5,685 before July to $14,715 on July 6, and then to $21,116 on July 9.

It was subsequently reduced to $14,606 on July 24. However, it remained well above its pre-July level. These adjustments affected financing requirements, market participation, and liquidity.

Higher margins require participants to provide more collateral. This reduces leverage and may discourage highly leveraged positions. It also strengthens protection against losses if a participant defaults.

However, it may also force positions to be closed. This reduces liquidity and can temporarily amplify price movements. The sharp price increases on July 6 and 9 may have been amplified by these liquidity effects.

Systematic and momentum-driven buying also played a role. Short covering, fueled by concerns over declining ICE-certified stocks, reinforced the upward price pressure. Thin liquidity made the market more susceptible to sharp movements.

Weather and El Niño Concerns

Weather factors were a key driver of July’s price movements. Unusually wet conditions in parts of Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying operations. This raised concerns about coffee quality.

On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was only 64% complete as of July 15. This compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%.

Meanwhile, the El Niño outlook strengthened significantly. On July 9, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97% probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027.

There was also an 81% probability of a very strong event during October-December 2026. This could rank among the most intense El Niño events recorded since 1950.

This outlook pointed to increased risks of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies. These could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and 2027.

Certified Stocks and Supply Tightness

London certified Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags in July. In contrast, US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags. This was their lowest level since January 2024.

This divergence indicated significantly tighter immediately deliverable supplies of Arabica. This supported higher Arabica prices relative to Robusta. It also contributed to the widening differentials between the two markets.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 0.98 million bags on July 31. This decline signaled limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions. It amplified the market’s response to weather and El Niño concerns.

Table 1: ICO Indicator Prices and Futures (US cents/lb)

Indicator	June 2026	July 2026	Change
ICO Composite	248.90	287.26	+15.4%
Colombian Milds	324.60	383.39	+18.1%
Other Milds	307.83	358.65	+16.5%
Brazilian Naturals	272.01	320.69	+17.9%
Robustas	169.39	184.78	+9.1%
New York ICE (Arabica)	256.75	310.34	+20.9%
London ICE (Robusta)	155.90	172.73	+10.8%

Green Bean Exports: Mixed Performance by Group

Global green bean exports totaled 10.48 million bags in June 2026. This was a 0.8% increase compared to 10.4 million bags in June 2025.

Brazilian Naturals exports rose 7.1% to 2.76 million bags. This was the first month of positive growth after 15 consecutive months of decline. The increase was driven by Brazil, where exports rose from 1.82 million to 2.01 million bags.

Colombian Milds exports increased 1.2% to 1.09 million bags. This was the group’s first positive growth in the current coffee year. Kenya was the main driver, with exports rising 39.2% to 0.11 million bags.

Other Milds exports fell 1.3% to 2.66 million bags. Nicaragua and Mexico were the main drivers of the decline, with combined exports falling 42.9% to 0.34 million bags.

Robusta exports fell 2.1% to 3.97 million bags. This was only the second instance of negative growth in the first nine months of the coffee year. Indonesia and Uganda drove the decline, with combined exports falling 36.1% to 0.98 million bags.

Total Arabica exports rose 2.5% to 6.51 million bags. However, the Arabicas’ share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 60.4% from 63.7% a year earlier.

Table 2: Green Bean Exports by Group (million 60‑kg bags)

Coffee Group	June 2025	June 2026	Change
Robustas	4.05	3.97	-2.1%
Colombian Milds	1.08	1.09	+1.2%
Other Milds	2.70	2.66	-1.3%
Brazilian Naturals	2.57	2.76	+7.1%

Exports by Region: South America Leads

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 0.3% to 11.88 million bags in June 2026. Exports declined in three of the four regions. South America recorded the only increase.

South America’s exports rose 17.3% to 4.8 million bags. Brazil led the increase, with exports up 17.4% to 3.09 million bags. Peru also contributed, with exports rising 50% to 0.49 million bags.

Asia & Oceania exports fell 2.4% to 3.63 million bags. Indonesia led the decline, with exports falling 33.3% to 0.58 million bags. However, India and Vietnam partly offset this with increases of 14.6% and 6.1% respectively.

Africa’s exports fell 13.5% to 1.79 million bags. Uganda was the main driver, with exports falling 30.6% to an estimated 0.7 million bags.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America fell 15.3% to 1.66 million bags. Mexico and Nicaragua drove the decline, with combined exports falling 44% to 0.41 million bags.

Soluble coffee exports fell 1.3% to 1.35 million bags. Roasted bean exports fell 32.3% to 0.05 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in July 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, a 15.4% increase from June 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

What caused the record daily price gains in July?

On July 6 and 9, the I-CIP rose 8.2% and 9.3% respectively, marking the largest daily increases in 21 years. This was driven by El Niño fears, falling stocks, wet weather in Brazil, and ICE margin hikes affecting liquidity.

How did ICE margin requirements affect the market?

ICE raised margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures from $5,685 to over $21,000 in early July. This reduced liquidity, forced position closures, and amplified price volatility.

What happened to certified coffee stocks in July?

US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024. London Robusta stocks rose slightly to 0.69 million bags. The divergence tightened Arabica supplies.

What is the El Niño outlook?

There is a 97% probability of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event during October-December 2026, potentially one of the most intense on record.

How is Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest progressing?

As of July 15, the harvest was only 64% complete, compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%, due to wet conditions that slowed harvesting and drying.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, July 2026 | Date: August 2026

Coffee Prices Soar as Brazil Harvest Slows and Inventories Tighten

Posted on August 24, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 24, 2026

Coffee Prices Soar as Brazil Harvest Slows and Inventories Tighten

Arabica surged 4.62% to a 6.75-month high.
Robusta rose 2.64% as supply remains tight.
Brazil’s harvest is 90% complete, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots.
Colombia’s earthquake still affects supplies despite partial export resumption.
El Niño concerns support prices with potential rainfall delays in Brazil.

Coffee prices surged sharply today. Arabica jumped 4.62% to a 6.75-month high. Robusta rose 2.64% as supply remains tight. The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is underpinning prices.

Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported 81.1% of the harvest was complete as of August 14. This is up 7 points from the prior week but still down from 86.1% a year earlier. Safras & Mercado reported on August 14 that Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest was 90% complete as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average. Arabica harvest was 86% complete, behind last year’s 95%.

Inventory Trends: Arabica at 2.75-Year Low

Falling inventories are bullish for arabica prices. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags last Friday. By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta. ICE robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots today.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	227,992 bags	2.75-year low
Robusta inventories	4,831 lots	8.75-month high

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of Aug 14)	81.1%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	86.1%
Brazil overall (as of Aug 12)	90%
Previous year (Aug 12)	97%
Five-year average (Aug 12)	94%
Arabica harvest (as of Aug 12)	86%
Arabica harvest previous year	95%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended Aug 16)	0.6 mm (11% of average)

Colombia Earthquake Still Affecting Supplies

Prices also have support from the devastating earthquake earlier this month in Colombia. Colombia is the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans. Among the areas hit by the 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia’s production.

Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through Buenaventura port, which handles most of its coffee exports. However, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited. According to a Bloomberg report, the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, setting the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Below-Normal Rainfall May Speed Up Harvest

Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should allow the harvest pace to speed up, a bearish factor for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported last Monday that 0.6 mm of rain, or 11% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 16 in Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-growing region.

Vietnam Exports Continue to Surge

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On August 2, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to July rose 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

USDA Forecast: Record Production

The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year, although robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise today?Arabica surged 4.62% to a 6.75-month high, and robusta rose 2.64%.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s harvest is 90% complete as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags, while robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots.

How did Colombia’s earthquake affect coffee supplies?The quake hit Caldas and Risaralda (25% of production). Exports have partially resumed through Buenaventura but remain limited.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year.

Arabica Prices Rise as Colombian Earthquake Disrupts Supplies

Posted on August 12, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 11, 2026

Arabica Prices Rise as Colombian Earthquake Disrupts Supplies

September arabica surged 1.04% to a 5-week high on Tuesday.
A 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit Colombia’s coffee-growing provinces on Monday.
Caldas and Risaralda, accounting for 25% of Colombia’s production, were affected.
Maersk temporarily suspended terminal operations in Buenaventura port.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 241,838 bags.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.75-month high of 4,352 lots.
USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27.

Arabica coffee settled sharply higher on Tuesday. September arabica closed up 3.45 cents, gaining 1.04% to a 5-week nearest-futures high. September robusta closed down 24 points, a decline of 0.63%. Prices settled mixed as diverging factors drove the two markets in opposite directions.

Arabica rallied on Tuesday amid concerns that a massive earthquake that hit Colombia on Monday will disrupt coffee supplies from the country. Colombia is the world’s second-largest producer of arabica coffee beans.

Colombian Earthquake Disrupts Coffee Production

Among the areas hit by Monday’s 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda. These provinces account for about a quarter of Colombia’s production. The earthquake has raised concerns about damage to coffee infrastructure and potential supply disruptions.

Shipping firm Maersk said Tuesday that terminal operations in Buenaventura have been “temporarily suspended.” Buenaventura handles most of Colombia’s coffee exports. Additionally, inland road closures and traffic restrictions due to the earthquake may impact cargo movements.

**Key Factors Driving Arabica Price Rally**
Factor	Impact
Colombian earthquake (7.4 magnitude)	Affected Caldas & Risaralda (25% of production)
Buenaventura port operations	Suspended by Maersk
Inland road closures	Impact on cargo movements
ICE arabica inventories	2.5-year low (241,838 bags)
Brazil harvest pace	67.3% vs 74.2% last year

Inventory Trends: Arabica Low, Robusta High

Rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee. ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.75-month high of 4,352 lots on Tuesday. By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 241,838 bags on Tuesday. This tight supply situation provides strong support for arabica prices.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	241,838 bags	2.5-year low
Robusta inventories	4,352 lots	4.75-month high

Brazil Harvest and Weather

Arabica also has support due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest. The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 67.3% complete as of July 31. This is behind the year-earlier pace of 74.2%. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%.

Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should allow for the harvest pace to speed up. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 5.8 mm of rain, or 92% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 9 in Brazil’s Minas Gerais. This is the country’s main arabica-growing region.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of July 31)	67.3%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	74.2%
Brazil overall (as of July 15)	64%
Previous year (July 15)	77%
Five-year average (July 15)	70%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended Aug 9)	5.8 mm (92% of avg)

USDA Forecast: Record Production

The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags. The increase is mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year. However, robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil. This September and October is when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Vietnam Exports Continue to Surge

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On August 2, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to July rose 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did arabica coffee prices rise on Tuesday?Arabica surged 1.04% to a 5-week high as a 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit Colombia’s coffee-growing provinces, disrupting supply from the world’s second-largest arabica producer.

What areas of Colombia were affected by the earthquake?The coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda were hit, accounting for about 25% of Colombia’s coffee production.

How did the earthquake affect coffee exports?Maersk suspended terminal operations in Buenaventura port, which handles most of Colombia’s coffee exports. Inland road closures may also impact cargo movements.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 241,838 bags, while robusta inventories climbed to a 4.75-month high of 4,352 lots.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year, led by Brazil’s recovery.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

Coffee Prices Climb on Unexpected Rain Forecasts for Brazil

Posted on August 4, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 4, 2026

Coffee Prices Climb on Unexpected Rain Forecasts for Brazil

September arabica rose 0.91% and robusta gained 1.64% on Wednesday.
Unexpected rain forecast for Minas Gerais triggered short covering.
No rain fell in Minas Gerais in the week ended August 2.
Brazil’s harvest is 58.3% complete, behind last year’s 67% pace.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 260,720 bags.
USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags.
Vietnam coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose 21.1% year-on-year.

Coffee prices moved higher today. Short covering emerged after an unexpected chance of rain was forecast for Minas Gerais. Minas Gerais is Brazil’s largest coffee-growing region. Rain could further delay the country’s coffee harvest.

On Monday, coffee prices sold off sharply. Forecasts for drier conditions in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions had bolstered the outlook for the harvest pace to pick up. Somar Meteorologia reported no rain fell in Minas Gerais in the week ended August 2.

Harvest Progress Behind Schedule

The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is supportive of coffee prices. The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 58.3% complete as of July 24. This is behind the year-earlier pace of 67%. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of July 24)	58.3%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	67%
Brazil overall (as of July 15)	64%
Previous year (July 15)	77%
Five-year average (July 15)	70%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended Aug 2)	0 mm

Inventory Trends: Arabica Low, Robusta High

Rising inventories are weighing on robusta coffee. ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots on July 22. They were mildly below that level at 4,207 lots today. By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 260,720 bags on Monday.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	260,720 bags	2.5-year low
Robusta inventories (July 22)	4,254 lots	4.25-month high
Robusta inventories (current)	4,207 lots	Mildly below high

USDA Forecast: Record Production

The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags. The increase is mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year. However, robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast a record Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags for 2026/27, up 14% year-on-year.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Vietnam Exports Continue to Surge

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On Sunday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to July rose 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise?September arabica rose 0.91% and robusta gained 1.64% on Wednesday, August 4.

What is driving the price increase?An unexpected rain forecast for Minas Gerais triggered short covering, as rain could further delay the Brazil harvest.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s harvest is 58.3% complete as of July 24, behind last year’s 67% and the five-year average.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 260,720 bags, while robusta inventories are near a 4.25-month high.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

Coffee Prices Sharply Higher as Brazil’s Harvest Is Delayed

Posted on July 28, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa Wold
Date: July 27, 2026

Coffee Prices Sharply Higher as Brazil’s Harvest Is Delayed

September arabica rose 3.43% and robusta gained 1.12% on Monday.
32.4 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais last week—2,700% above the historical average.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is only 64% complete, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% average.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags.
USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27.
El Niño risks continue to support prices with potential impacts on Brazil’s flowering.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots.

Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Monday. September arabica closed up 10.75 cents, gaining 3.43%. September robusta closed up 42 points, a rise of 1.12%. The surge came amid concerns that heavy rain in Brazil will further disrupt the coffee harvest.

Somar Meteorologia reported 32.4 mm of rain in Minas Gerais for the week ended July 26. This represents 2,700% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region.

Harvest Delays Support Coffee Prices

The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is supporting prices. Harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 47.3% complete as of July 17. This is behind the year-earlier pace of 59%. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%.

Heavy rainfall in recent weeks has disrupted harvesting operations. Coffee quality may also be affected. Brazilian farmers continue to hold back sales, hoping for higher prices.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of July 17)	47.3%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	59%
Brazil overall (as of July 15)	64%
Previous year (July 15)	77%
Five-year average (July 15)	70%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended July 26)	32.4 mm (2,700% of average)

USDA Forecast and Market Reaction

Last Friday, coffee prices tumbled to 3-week lows. This followed the USDA’s forecast last Wednesday that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags. The increase is mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.

The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year. However, robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast a record Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags for 2026/27, up 14% year-on-year.

**Key Price Drivers for Coffee**
Factor	Impact	Details
Brazil rainfall	Bullish	32.4 mm rain, 2,700% above average, disrupting harvest
Harvest progress	Bullish	64% complete vs. 77% last year and 70% average
Arabica inventories	Bullish	2.5-year low of 292,810 bags
USDA production forecast	Bearish	Record 189.7 million bags globally
Robusta inventories	Bearish	4.25-month high of 4,254 lots
El Niño risks	Bullish	Potential impact on flowering in September-October

Inventory Trends Support Arabica, Weigh on Robusta

Rising inventories are weighing on robusta coffee. ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots last Wednesday. They were mildly below that level at 4,228 lots on Monday.

By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags on Monday. This tight supply situation supports higher arabica prices.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil. This September and October is when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop.

On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Bearish Factors to Consider

Despite the bullish momentum, several bearish factors exist. Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On July 3, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to June rose 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.

The USDA’s record production forecast also weighs on the market. However, the supply tightening due to harvest delays and El Niño risks may offset these bearish factors.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise on Monday?September arabica gained 3.43% and September robusta rose 1.12% on Monday, July 27.

What is driving the price increase?Heavy rain in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region—32.4 mm, 2,700% above average—is disrupting the coffee harvest and tightening supplies.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% five-year average.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags, while robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year, led by Brazil’s recovery.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

Coffee Drinkers Shift to Whole Beans as Prices Soar

Posted on July 21, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Qahwa World / Lavazza Group
Author: Editorial Team
Date: July 21, 2026

Coffee Drinkers Shift to Whole Beans as Prices Soar

Consumers are buying less but better coffee as global prices remain elevated.
Whole bean demand surged 46% year-over-year, according to consumer data.
Home brewing equipment sales jumped: drip coffee makers up 66%, espresso machines up 50%.
Lavazza reported strong 2025 revenue of €3.9 billion, up 15.7%.
Lavazza plans to launch Tablì, a sustainable single-serve system using compressed coffee tablets.
Nielsen data shows whole bean sales outpacing overall coffee category across UK and Europe.
Price volatility is expected to persist, with no retail price cuts in sight.

Global coffee prices have remained elevated for four consecutive years. Consumers are adapting by buying less but better. This trend toward whole bean coffee and bean-to-cup machines represents a significant market shift.

Giuseppe Lavazza, Chairman of the Lavazza Group, called it the sector’s most important trend. “People are looking for beans,” he said. “They enjoy replicating the coffee shop experience at home. Maybe they prefer to consume a little less but of better quality.”

The Trend Emerged in 2024

This shift did not appear overnight. Early indicators were visible in 2024, well before the price peaks of 2025 intensified the movement. Pattern, a consumer demand analysis firm, reported whole bean coffee demand surged 46% year-over-year. This growth was accompanied by strong increases in home brewing equipment.

Drip coffee makers rose 66%. Espresso machines increased 50%. Accessories such as bean storage also grew 20%. The report highlighted a broader move toward serious at-home coffee preparation. Whole beans serve as the starting point for better freshness and flavor.

Multiple National Coffee Association surveys showed sustained high levels of at-home coffee consumption. Around 81% of past-day drinkers consumed coffee at home in some periods. Out-of-home consumption recovered post-pandemic, but the at-home habit remained strong. Consumers continued seeking premium experiences and better value.

**2024 Early Indicators – Consumer Demand Growth**
Category	Growth
Whole bean coffee demand	+46%
Drip coffee makers	+66%
Espresso machines	+50%
Bean storage accessories	+20%

Current Reality: Price Surge Accelerates Change

Record-high coffee prices in 2025 pushed the trend into the mainstream. Poor harvests in Brazil and Vietnam drove the price surge. Climate change impacts, geopolitical disruptions, and financial speculation also contributed.

Nielsen data for the year to May 2026 shows the shift clearly. In the United Kingdom, whole-bean sales rose 20.3% by volume. This far outpaced the overall at-home coffee category, which grew just 2.8%. Value sales jumped 36.8%, while bean-to-cup machine sales increased 33.5%.

In Europe, France saw 35% growth by value. Italy recorded 33% growth. Germany, Europe’s largest coffee market, saw 31.2% growth. Whole beans have now surpassed traditional roast-and-ground coffee in volume in Germany.

In the United States, the shift was more modest but consistent. Whole-bean unit sales rose 3.2% over 52 weeks to June 2026. Meanwhile, pod sales fell 4.9% and ground coffee declined 3.9%.

**Nielsen Data – Whole Bean Sales Growth (Year to May 2026)**
Market	Growth
United Kingdom (volume)	+20.3%
United Kingdom (value)	+36.8%
France (value)	+35.0%
Italy (value)	+33.0%
Germany (value)	+31.2%
United States (unit sales)	+3.2%

Why Prices Soared

The coffee market has faced four years of upheaval. Adverse weather and weak harvests in Brazil and Vietnam were key factors. Climate change impacts, including El Niño risks, added pressure. Geopolitical disruptions, higher shipping costs, and financial speculation in futures markets also played a role.

In the UK, at-home coffee prices rose another 6.3% in the year to May 2026. Roasters found it harder to manage costs by blending cheaper Robusta with Arabica. Both varieties hit record levels simultaneously.

Lavazza noted that futures prices have eased from 2025 peaks. However, the market remains too volatile for widespread retail price cuts. “We think there is not time to think about a possible cut in prices,” he said. “The possibility of another increase is not totally over.” At least two strong harvests in Brazil and Vietnam will be needed to rebuild global inventories.

Lavazza’s Performance and Strategic Response

Despite industry challenges, Lavazza reported strong 2025 results. Revenue reached €3.9 billion, up 15.7%. EBITDA rose 8.8% to €340 million. The company is innovating to stay ahead.

Lavazza plans to launch Tablì in the UK in September 2026. This is a single-serve system using compressed coffee tablets. It addresses waste and recycling concerns associated with plastic and aluminum pods. “Capsule is over,” Lavazza declared. “This is a new benchmark.”

Broader Implications and Future Outlook

Consumer behavior is evolving. Coffee remains recession-resistant. However, buyers are trading down in volume while trading up in quality and experience. The “less but better” philosophy reflects economic pressure and a desire for premium at-home rituals.

The pandemic-initiated home-brewing boom has become structural. Demand for whole beans rewards freshness, flavor complexity, and better value per cup. Persistent climate risks, cautious buying by roasters, and farmers holding stock in hope of higher prices continue to shape the market.

Volatility is now “the new constant,” according to Lavazza. Opportunities remain in premium home equipment, sustainable packaging innovations, and single-origin and specialty offerings.

“People are looking for beans and they enjoy maybe to replicate at home the experience of the coffee shop. Maybe they prefer to consume a little less but of better quality.”

— Giuseppe Lavazza, Chairman, Lavazza Group

Conclusion

What began as a noticeable trend in 2024 has evolved into a major market shift in 2026. Soaring prices amplified the movement. Consumers are not abandoning coffee. They are redefining how they enjoy it. As Lavazza observed, this represents a “fundamental transformation in terms of supply and demand.”

For roasters, retailers, and consumers alike, the message is clear. Quality, freshness, and thoughtful preparation are winning out in an era of higher costs and greater awareness.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the “less but better” coffee trend?Consumers are buying less coffee in volume but choosing higher quality whole beans and premium home brewing equipment to replicate café experiences at home.

How much did whole bean demand surge?Whole bean coffee demand surged 46% year-over-year, according to consumer demand analysis from Pattern.

What are the key market data highlights?In the UK, whole-bean sales rose 20.3% by volume. France saw 35% value growth, Italy 33%, and Germany 31.2%.

Why are coffee prices so high?Poor harvests in Brazil and Vietnam, climate change, geopolitical disruptions, and financial speculation have driven prices to record levels.

What is Lavazza’s new Tablì product?Tablì is a single-serve system using compressed coffee tablets instead of plastic or aluminum pods, addressing waste and recycling concerns.

Will coffee prices come down soon?Lavazza says prices remain too volatile for retail cuts. At least two strong harvests in Brazil and Vietnam are needed to rebuild inventories.

Delays to Brazil’s Harvest Push Coffee Prices Higher

Posted on July 21, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 20, 2026

Delays to Brazil’s Harvest Push Coffee Prices Higher

September arabica rose 1.33% and robusta gained 0.18% on Monday.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is only 64% complete, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% average.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 3.75-month high of 4,239 lots.
Arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 329,870 bags.
Heavy rains in Brazil have disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered crop quality.
El Niño concerns continue to support prices with potential impacts on Brazil’s flowering.
Only 0.2 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais last week, 20% of the historical average.

Coffee prices moved higher on Monday. September arabica closed up 4.25 cents, gaining 1.33%. September robusta closed up 7 points, a rise of 0.18%. The gains came amid delays in Brazil’s coffee harvest.

Safras & Mercado reported the harvest is 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%. The slow pace continues to support prices.

Harvest Delays Drive Coffee Prices Higher

Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is progressing slowly. Heavy rains have disrupted fieldwork. These rains may have also lowered crop quality. Brazilian farmers are holding back on sales. They hope prices will rise further. They are also bracing for potential El Niño impacts.

On July 6, arabica soared to a 5.75-month high. On July 7, robusta also hit a 5.75-month high. However, prices have since whipsawed in a wide range. Trading conditions remain illiquid. This has led to volatile price moves.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress (as of July 15)**
Period	Completion
Current year (2026/27)	64%
Previous year (2025/26)	77%
Five-year average	70%

Margin Hikes Reduce Liquidity

ICE raised margin requirements for coffee futures recently. This action has dried up liquidity. Many commodity funds have closed their positions. The result has been excessive one-way price moves. Volatility has been amplified by the illiquid conditions.

This has created a challenging trading environment. Prices have moved sharply in both directions. Market participants should expect continued volatility in the near term.

Inventory Trends Support Prices

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months. This is supportive for coffee prices. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 329,870 bags on Monday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low on May 15. However, they have since risen to a 3.75-month high of 4,239 lots on Monday.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	329,870 bags	2.25-year low
Robusta inventories (May 15)	3,631 lots	2-year low
Robusta inventories (current)	4,239 lots	3.75-month high

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that only 0.2 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais in the week through July 19. This is Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region. This represents only 20% of the historical average. The dry conditions add to market concerns.

Bearish Factors to Consider

Despite the bullish momentum, several bearish factors exist. Recent strength in Brazil’s coffee exports is negative for prices. Last Wednesday, Cecafe reported Brazil’s June green coffee exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year to 2.64 million bags.

Vietnam’s soaring coffee exports are also bearish for robusta prices. On July 3, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported coffee exports from January to June rose 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projected record global production. World coffee production in 2025/26 is forecast to increase 2% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags. Robusta production is projected to rise 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

**Global Supply Forecasts (USDA)**
Category	Forecast	Change
World coffee production 2025/26	178.848 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica production	95.515 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta production	83.333 million bags	+10.9%
Brazil 2025/26 production	63 million bags	-3.1%
Vietnam 2025/26 output	30.8 million bags	+6.2%
Ending stocks 2025/26	20.148 million bags	-5.4%

Technical Perspective

On June 9, arabica coffee fell to a 20.5-month nearest-futures low. Robusta slid to a 3.5-month low. This occurred amid an outlook for a bumper coffee crop in Brazil. However, prices have since recovered significantly. The market remains highly volatile with significant upside potential.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise on Monday?September arabica gained 1.33% and September robusta rose 0.18% on Monday, July 20.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% five-year average.

Why are ICE coffee inventories important?Low inventories reduce available supply and support higher prices. Arabica inventories recently hit a 2.25-year low.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño can delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields.

What was the rainfall in Minas Gerais last week?Only 0.2 mm of rain fell, representing just 20% of the historical average, raising concerns about dry conditions.

What is the global production forecast?USDA forecasts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, with robusta up 10.9% and arabica down 4.7%.

Coffee Prices Jump on Slow Brazil Harvest

Posted on July 18, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 17, 2026

Coffee Prices Jump on Slow Brazil Harvest

September arabica rose 2.46% and robusta gained 2.11% on Friday.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is only 64% complete, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% average.
ICE raised margin requirements twice last week, reducing liquidity and amplifying volatility.
Heavy rains in Brazil have disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered crop quality.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 332,945 bags.
El Niño concerns continue to support prices with potential impacts on Brazil’s flowering.
Brazil’s June green coffee exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year to 2.64 million bags.

Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Friday. September arabica closed up 7.70 cents, gaining 2.46%. September robusta closed up 80 points, a rise of 2.11%. The rally came amid delays in Brazil’s coffee harvest.

Safras & Mercado reported the harvest is 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%. The slow pace continues to support prices.

Harvest Delays Drive Coffee Prices Higher

Last Monday, arabica soared to a 5.5-month high. Last Tuesday, robusta also hit a 5.5-month high. However, prices have since whipsawed in a wide range. Trading conditions remain illiquid. This has led to volatile price moves.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress (as of July 15)**
Period	Completion
Current year (2026/27)	64%
Previous year (2025/26)	77%
Five-year average	70%

Margin Hikes Reduce Liquidity

ICE raised margin requirements for coffee futures twice last week. This action has dried up liquidity. Many commodity funds have closed their positions. The result has been excessive one-way price moves. Volatility has been amplified by the illiquid conditions.

This has created a challenging trading environment. Prices have moved sharply in both directions. Market participants should expect continued volatility in the near term.

Inventory Trends Support Coffee Prices

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months. This is supportive for coffee prices. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 332,945 bags on Friday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low on May 15. However, they have since risen to a 3.5-month high of 4,220 lots.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	332,945 bags	2.25-year low
Robusta inventories (May 15)	3,631 lots	2-year low
Robusta inventories (current)	4,220 lots	3.5-month high

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Last Wednesday, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Somar Meteorologia reported no rain fell in Minas Gerais in the week through July 5. This is Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region. The dry conditions add to market concerns.

Bearish Factors to Consider

Despite the bullish momentum, several bearish factors exist. Recent strength in Brazil’s coffee exports is negative for prices. On Thursday, Cecafe reported Brazil’s June green coffee exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year to 2.64 million bags.

Fund positioning also poses risks. Last Friday’s COT data showed funds boosted their long positions in robusta by 5,607 contracts in the week ended July 7. This brought net-long positions to 44,195, the most in more than two years. Such concentrated long positions can accelerate price declines if investors begin to unwind.

**Global Supply Forecasts (USDA)**
Category	Forecast	Change
World coffee production 2025/26	178.848 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica production	95.515 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta production	83.333 million bags	+10.9%
Brazil 2025/26 production	63 million bags	-3.1%
Vietnam 2025/26 output	30.8 million bags	+6.2%
Ending stocks 2025/26	20.148 million bags	-5.4%

Technical Perspective

On June 9, arabica coffee fell to a 20.25-month nearest-futures low. Robusta slid to a 3.25-month low. This occurred amid an outlook for a bumper coffee crop in Brazil. However, prices have since recovered significantly. The market remains highly volatile with significant upside potential.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise on Friday?September arabica gained 2.46% and September robusta rose 2.11% on Friday, July 17.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% five-year average.

Why are ICE coffee inventories important?Low inventories reduce available supply and support higher prices. Arabica inventories recently hit a 2.25-year low.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño can delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields.

What is the fund positioning in robusta coffee?Funds held 44,195 net-long positions as of July 7, the highest level in more than two years, increasing downside risk.

What is the global production forecast?USDA forecasts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, with robusta up 10.9% and arabica down 4.7%.