Coffee Prices Record Largest Monthly Surge Since 2021

Posted on August 29, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, July 2026
Date: August 2026According to recent reports, coffee prices experienced the largest monthly surge in 2026.

Coffee Prices Record Largest Monthly Surge Since 2021

Executive Summary

The ICO composite price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.
Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta: Colombian Milds +18.1%, Brazilian Naturals +17.9%, Robustas +9.1%.
Record daily gains of 8.2% (July 6) and 9.3% (July 9) marked the largest increases in 21 years.
El Niño probability reached 97% through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event.
Brazil’s harvest was only 64% complete by July 15, below the 5‑year average of 70%, due to wet conditions.
US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024.
London Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags, widening the price gap between the two varieties.

Global coffee prices recorded their largest monthly increase since 2021 in July 2026. The ICO Composite Indicator Price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents per pound.

Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta. Colombian Milds increased 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb. Other Milds increased 16.5% to 358.65 US cents/lb. Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.

The price rally was driven by several factors. Weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tightening Arabica supplies all played a role.

On July 6, the composite price rose 8.2% in a single day. On July 9, it rose another 9.3%. These were the largest daily increases observed in 21 years.

El Niño fears intensified significantly. On July 9, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97% probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027. There was also an 81% probability of a very strong event during October-December 2026.

This outlook pointed to increased risks of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies. These could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and 2027.

Weather factors were a key driver. Unusually wet conditions in parts of Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying operations. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s harvest was only 64% complete as of July 15. This compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%.

Wet conditions also caused uneven maturation. Multiple flowering cycles led to cherries at different stages of ripeness. This required more selective picking and sorting, making harvesting slower and more costly.

US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags in July. This was their lowest level since January 2024. The decline signaled significantly tighter immediately deliverable supplies of Arabica.

In contrast, London certified Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags. This divergence widened the price gap between Arabica and Robusta and increased the price differentials.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 0.98 million bags on July 31. This signaled limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions.

Table 1: Key Price Movements (US cents/lb)

Indicator	June 2026	July 2026	Change
ICO Composite	248.90	287.26	+15.4%
Colombian Milds	324.60	383.39	+18.1%
Brazilian Naturals	272.01	320.69	+17.9%
Robustas	169.39	184.78	+9.1%

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise in July 2026?

The ICO composite price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents/lb, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

What caused the price surge?

El Niño fears (97% probability), wet weather in Brazil slowing the harvest, and falling Arabica stocks were the main drivers.

How did Arabica and Robusta prices perform differently?

Arabica prices rose faster (+18.1% for Colombian Milds) while Robusta rose 9.1%, widening the price gap.

What happened to certified coffee stocks?

US Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags (lowest since Jan 2024), while London Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags.

What is the El Niño outlook?

There is a 97% probability of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027, with an 81% chance of a very strong event in late 2026.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, July 2026 | Date: August 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026: Prices Surge 15.4% on Supply Fears

Posted on August 29, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, July 2026
Date: August 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026: Prices Surge 15.4% on Supply Fears

Executive Summary

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, up 15.4% from June, with Arabica prices outpacing Robusta.
Record daily gains of 8.2% on July 6 and 9.3% on July 9 marked the largest increases in 21 years.
Colombian Milds rose 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb; Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb; Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.
US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024, tightening immediately deliverable supplies.
ICE margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures surged from $5,685 to over $21,000 in early July, reducing liquidity and amplifying volatility.
El Niño probability reached 97% through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event, heightening supply concerns.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest was only 64% complete by July 15, below the 5‑year average of 70%, due to wet conditions.
Global green bean exports rose 0.8% to 10.48 million bags in June, driven by Brazilian Naturals (+7.1%).

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents per pound in July 2026. This was a 15.4% increase from June 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta prices. The Colombian Milds increased 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb. The Other Milds increased 16.5% to 358.65 US cents/lb. Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.

The widening price gap was reflected in higher differentials. The arbitrage between New York and London futures markets expanded by 36.4% to 137.61 US cents/lb.

Volatility also rose sharply. On July 6, the I-CIP rose 8.2% in a single day. On July 9, it rose another 9.3%. Together, these were the largest daily increases observed in 21 years.

Several factors contributed to the price surge. Weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tightening Arabica supplies all played a role. US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest level since January 2024.

ICE Margin Requirements and Market Liquidity

In response to heightened market risk, ICE Futures U.S. increased margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures multiple times in early July. The margin rate for the September 2026 contract rose from $5,685 before July to $14,715 on July 6, and then to $21,116 on July 9.

It was subsequently reduced to $14,606 on July 24. However, it remained well above its pre-July level. These adjustments affected financing requirements, market participation, and liquidity.

Higher margins require participants to provide more collateral. This reduces leverage and may discourage highly leveraged positions. It also strengthens protection against losses if a participant defaults.

However, it may also force positions to be closed. This reduces liquidity and can temporarily amplify price movements. The sharp price increases on July 6 and 9 may have been amplified by these liquidity effects.

Systematic and momentum-driven buying also played a role. Short covering, fueled by concerns over declining ICE-certified stocks, reinforced the upward price pressure. Thin liquidity made the market more susceptible to sharp movements.

Weather and El Niño Concerns

Weather factors were a key driver of July’s price movements. Unusually wet conditions in parts of Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying operations. This raised concerns about coffee quality.

On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was only 64% complete as of July 15. This compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%.

Meanwhile, the El Niño outlook strengthened significantly. On July 9, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97% probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027.

There was also an 81% probability of a very strong event during October-December 2026. This could rank among the most intense El Niño events recorded since 1950.

This outlook pointed to increased risks of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies. These could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and 2027.

Certified Stocks and Supply Tightness

London certified Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags in July. In contrast, US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags. This was their lowest level since January 2024.

This divergence indicated significantly tighter immediately deliverable supplies of Arabica. This supported higher Arabica prices relative to Robusta. It also contributed to the widening differentials between the two markets.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 0.98 million bags on July 31. This decline signaled limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions. It amplified the market’s response to weather and El Niño concerns.

Table 1: ICO Indicator Prices and Futures (US cents/lb)

Indicator	June 2026	July 2026	Change
ICO Composite	248.90	287.26	+15.4%
Colombian Milds	324.60	383.39	+18.1%
Other Milds	307.83	358.65	+16.5%
Brazilian Naturals	272.01	320.69	+17.9%
Robustas	169.39	184.78	+9.1%
New York ICE (Arabica)	256.75	310.34	+20.9%
London ICE (Robusta)	155.90	172.73	+10.8%

Green Bean Exports: Mixed Performance by Group

Global green bean exports totaled 10.48 million bags in June 2026. This was a 0.8% increase compared to 10.4 million bags in June 2025.

Brazilian Naturals exports rose 7.1% to 2.76 million bags. This was the first month of positive growth after 15 consecutive months of decline. The increase was driven by Brazil, where exports rose from 1.82 million to 2.01 million bags.

Colombian Milds exports increased 1.2% to 1.09 million bags. This was the group’s first positive growth in the current coffee year. Kenya was the main driver, with exports rising 39.2% to 0.11 million bags.

Other Milds exports fell 1.3% to 2.66 million bags. Nicaragua and Mexico were the main drivers of the decline, with combined exports falling 42.9% to 0.34 million bags.

Robusta exports fell 2.1% to 3.97 million bags. This was only the second instance of negative growth in the first nine months of the coffee year. Indonesia and Uganda drove the decline, with combined exports falling 36.1% to 0.98 million bags.

Total Arabica exports rose 2.5% to 6.51 million bags. However, the Arabicas’ share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 60.4% from 63.7% a year earlier.

Table 2: Green Bean Exports by Group (million 60‑kg bags)

Coffee Group	June 2025	June 2026	Change
Robustas	4.05	3.97	-2.1%
Colombian Milds	1.08	1.09	+1.2%
Other Milds	2.70	2.66	-1.3%
Brazilian Naturals	2.57	2.76	+7.1%

Exports by Region: South America Leads

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 0.3% to 11.88 million bags in June 2026. Exports declined in three of the four regions. South America recorded the only increase.

South America’s exports rose 17.3% to 4.8 million bags. Brazil led the increase, with exports up 17.4% to 3.09 million bags. Peru also contributed, with exports rising 50% to 0.49 million bags.

Asia & Oceania exports fell 2.4% to 3.63 million bags. Indonesia led the decline, with exports falling 33.3% to 0.58 million bags. However, India and Vietnam partly offset this with increases of 14.6% and 6.1% respectively.

Africa’s exports fell 13.5% to 1.79 million bags. Uganda was the main driver, with exports falling 30.6% to an estimated 0.7 million bags.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America fell 15.3% to 1.66 million bags. Mexico and Nicaragua drove the decline, with combined exports falling 44% to 0.41 million bags.

Soluble coffee exports fell 1.3% to 1.35 million bags. Roasted bean exports fell 32.3% to 0.05 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in July 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, a 15.4% increase from June 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

What caused the record daily price gains in July?

On July 6 and 9, the I-CIP rose 8.2% and 9.3% respectively, marking the largest daily increases in 21 years. This was driven by El Niño fears, falling stocks, wet weather in Brazil, and ICE margin hikes affecting liquidity.

How did ICE margin requirements affect the market?

ICE raised margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures from $5,685 to over $21,000 in early July. This reduced liquidity, forced position closures, and amplified price volatility.

What happened to certified coffee stocks in July?

US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024. London Robusta stocks rose slightly to 0.69 million bags. The divergence tightened Arabica supplies.

What is the El Niño outlook?

There is a 97% probability of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event during October-December 2026, potentially one of the most intense on record.

How is Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest progressing?

As of July 15, the harvest was only 64% complete, compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%, due to wet conditions that slowed harvesting and drying.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, July 2026 | Date: August 2026

Coffee Prices Soar as Brazil Harvest Slows and Inventories Tighten

Posted on August 24, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 24, 2026

Coffee Prices Soar as Brazil Harvest Slows and Inventories Tighten

Arabica surged 4.62% to a 6.75-month high.
Robusta rose 2.64% as supply remains tight.
Brazil’s harvest is 90% complete, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots.
Colombia’s earthquake still affects supplies despite partial export resumption.
El Niño concerns support prices with potential rainfall delays in Brazil.

Coffee prices surged sharply today. Arabica jumped 4.62% to a 6.75-month high. Robusta rose 2.64% as supply remains tight. The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is underpinning prices.

Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported 81.1% of the harvest was complete as of August 14. This is up 7 points from the prior week but still down from 86.1% a year earlier. Safras & Mercado reported on August 14 that Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest was 90% complete as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average. Arabica harvest was 86% complete, behind last year’s 95%.

Inventory Trends: Arabica at 2.75-Year Low

Falling inventories are bullish for arabica prices. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags last Friday. By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta. ICE robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots today.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	227,992 bags	2.75-year low
Robusta inventories	4,831 lots	8.75-month high

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of Aug 14)	81.1%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	86.1%
Brazil overall (as of Aug 12)	90%
Previous year (Aug 12)	97%
Five-year average (Aug 12)	94%
Arabica harvest (as of Aug 12)	86%
Arabica harvest previous year	95%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended Aug 16)	0.6 mm (11% of average)

Colombia Earthquake Still Affecting Supplies

Prices also have support from the devastating earthquake earlier this month in Colombia. Colombia is the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans. Among the areas hit by the 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia’s production.

Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through Buenaventura port, which handles most of its coffee exports. However, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited. According to a Bloomberg report, the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, setting the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Below-Normal Rainfall May Speed Up Harvest

Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should allow the harvest pace to speed up, a bearish factor for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported last Monday that 0.6 mm of rain, or 11% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 16 in Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-growing region.

Vietnam Exports Continue to Surge

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On August 2, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to July rose 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

USDA Forecast: Record Production

The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year, although robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise today?Arabica surged 4.62% to a 6.75-month high, and robusta rose 2.64%.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s harvest is 90% complete as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 94% five-year average.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags, while robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,831 lots.

How did Colombia’s earthquake affect coffee supplies?The quake hit Caldas and Risaralda (25% of production). Exports have partially resumed through Buenaventura but remain limited.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year.

Arabica Prices Rise as Colombian Earthquake Disrupts Supplies

Posted on August 12, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 11, 2026

Arabica Prices Rise as Colombian Earthquake Disrupts Supplies

September arabica surged 1.04% to a 5-week high on Tuesday.
A 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit Colombia’s coffee-growing provinces on Monday.
Caldas and Risaralda, accounting for 25% of Colombia’s production, were affected.
Maersk temporarily suspended terminal operations in Buenaventura port.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 241,838 bags.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.75-month high of 4,352 lots.
USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27.

Arabica coffee settled sharply higher on Tuesday. September arabica closed up 3.45 cents, gaining 1.04% to a 5-week nearest-futures high. September robusta closed down 24 points, a decline of 0.63%. Prices settled mixed as diverging factors drove the two markets in opposite directions.

Arabica rallied on Tuesday amid concerns that a massive earthquake that hit Colombia on Monday will disrupt coffee supplies from the country. Colombia is the world’s second-largest producer of arabica coffee beans.

Colombian Earthquake Disrupts Coffee Production

Among the areas hit by Monday’s 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda. These provinces account for about a quarter of Colombia’s production. The earthquake has raised concerns about damage to coffee infrastructure and potential supply disruptions.

Shipping firm Maersk said Tuesday that terminal operations in Buenaventura have been “temporarily suspended.” Buenaventura handles most of Colombia’s coffee exports. Additionally, inland road closures and traffic restrictions due to the earthquake may impact cargo movements.

**Key Factors Driving Arabica Price Rally**
Factor	Impact
Colombian earthquake (7.4 magnitude)	Affected Caldas & Risaralda (25% of production)
Buenaventura port operations	Suspended by Maersk
Inland road closures	Impact on cargo movements
ICE arabica inventories	2.5-year low (241,838 bags)
Brazil harvest pace	67.3% vs 74.2% last year

Inventory Trends: Arabica Low, Robusta High

Rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee. ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.75-month high of 4,352 lots on Tuesday. By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 241,838 bags on Tuesday. This tight supply situation provides strong support for arabica prices.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	241,838 bags	2.5-year low
Robusta inventories	4,352 lots	4.75-month high

Brazil Harvest and Weather

Arabica also has support due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest. The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 67.3% complete as of July 31. This is behind the year-earlier pace of 74.2%. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%.

Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should allow for the harvest pace to speed up. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 5.8 mm of rain, or 92% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 9 in Brazil’s Minas Gerais. This is the country’s main arabica-growing region.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of July 31)	67.3%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	74.2%
Brazil overall (as of July 15)	64%
Previous year (July 15)	77%
Five-year average (July 15)	70%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended Aug 9)	5.8 mm (92% of avg)

USDA Forecast: Record Production

The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags. The increase is mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year. However, robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil. This September and October is when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Vietnam Exports Continue to Surge

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On August 2, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to July rose 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did arabica coffee prices rise on Tuesday?Arabica surged 1.04% to a 5-week high as a 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit Colombia’s coffee-growing provinces, disrupting supply from the world’s second-largest arabica producer.

What areas of Colombia were affected by the earthquake?The coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda were hit, accounting for about 25% of Colombia’s coffee production.

How did the earthquake affect coffee exports?Maersk suspended terminal operations in Buenaventura port, which handles most of Colombia’s coffee exports. Inland road closures may also impact cargo movements.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 241,838 bags, while robusta inventories climbed to a 4.75-month high of 4,352 lots.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year, led by Brazil’s recovery.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

Coffee Prices Climb on Unexpected Rain Forecasts for Brazil

Posted on August 4, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: August 4, 2026

Coffee Prices Climb on Unexpected Rain Forecasts for Brazil

September arabica rose 0.91% and robusta gained 1.64% on Wednesday.
Unexpected rain forecast for Minas Gerais triggered short covering.
No rain fell in Minas Gerais in the week ended August 2.
Brazil’s harvest is 58.3% complete, behind last year’s 67% pace.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 260,720 bags.
USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags.
Vietnam coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose 21.1% year-on-year.

Coffee prices moved higher today. Short covering emerged after an unexpected chance of rain was forecast for Minas Gerais. Minas Gerais is Brazil’s largest coffee-growing region. Rain could further delay the country’s coffee harvest.

On Monday, coffee prices sold off sharply. Forecasts for drier conditions in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions had bolstered the outlook for the harvest pace to pick up. Somar Meteorologia reported no rain fell in Minas Gerais in the week ended August 2.

Harvest Progress Behind Schedule

The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is supportive of coffee prices. The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 58.3% complete as of July 24. This is behind the year-earlier pace of 67%. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of July 24)	58.3%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	67%
Brazil overall (as of July 15)	64%
Previous year (July 15)	77%
Five-year average (July 15)	70%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended Aug 2)	0 mm

Inventory Trends: Arabica Low, Robusta High

Rising inventories are weighing on robusta coffee. ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots on July 22. They were mildly below that level at 4,207 lots today. By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 260,720 bags on Monday.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	260,720 bags	2.5-year low
Robusta inventories (July 22)	4,254 lots	4.25-month high
Robusta inventories (current)	4,207 lots	Mildly below high

USDA Forecast: Record Production

The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags. The increase is mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year. However, robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast a record Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags for 2026/27, up 14% year-on-year.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Vietnam Exports Continue to Surge

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On Sunday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to July rose 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise?September arabica rose 0.91% and robusta gained 1.64% on Wednesday, August 4.

What is driving the price increase?An unexpected rain forecast for Minas Gerais triggered short covering, as rain could further delay the Brazil harvest.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s harvest is 58.3% complete as of July 24, behind last year’s 67% and the five-year average.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 260,720 bags, while robusta inventories are near a 4.25-month high.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

Coffee Prices Sharply Higher as Brazil’s Harvest Is Delayed

Posted on July 28, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa Wold
Date: July 27, 2026

Coffee Prices Sharply Higher as Brazil’s Harvest Is Delayed

September arabica rose 3.43% and robusta gained 1.12% on Monday.
32.4 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais last week—2,700% above the historical average.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is only 64% complete, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% average.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags.
USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27.
El Niño risks continue to support prices with potential impacts on Brazil’s flowering.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots.

Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Monday. September arabica closed up 10.75 cents, gaining 3.43%. September robusta closed up 42 points, a rise of 1.12%. The surge came amid concerns that heavy rain in Brazil will further disrupt the coffee harvest.

Somar Meteorologia reported 32.4 mm of rain in Minas Gerais for the week ended July 26. This represents 2,700% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region.

Harvest Delays Support Coffee Prices

The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is supporting prices. Harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 47.3% complete as of July 17. This is behind the year-earlier pace of 59%. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%.

Heavy rainfall in recent weeks has disrupted harvesting operations. Coffee quality may also be affected. Brazilian farmers continue to hold back sales, hoping for higher prices.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of July 17)	47.3%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	59%
Brazil overall (as of July 15)	64%
Previous year (July 15)	77%
Five-year average (July 15)	70%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended July 26)	32.4 mm (2,700% of average)

USDA Forecast and Market Reaction

Last Friday, coffee prices tumbled to 3-week lows. This followed the USDA’s forecast last Wednesday that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags. The increase is mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.

The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year. However, robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast a record Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags for 2026/27, up 14% year-on-year.

**Key Price Drivers for Coffee**
Factor	Impact	Details
Brazil rainfall	Bullish	32.4 mm rain, 2,700% above average, disrupting harvest
Harvest progress	Bullish	64% complete vs. 77% last year and 70% average
Arabica inventories	Bullish	2.5-year low of 292,810 bags
USDA production forecast	Bearish	Record 189.7 million bags globally
Robusta inventories	Bearish	4.25-month high of 4,254 lots
El Niño risks	Bullish	Potential impact on flowering in September-October

Inventory Trends Support Arabica, Weigh on Robusta

Rising inventories are weighing on robusta coffee. ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots last Wednesday. They were mildly below that level at 4,228 lots on Monday.

By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags on Monday. This tight supply situation supports higher arabica prices.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil. This September and October is when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop.

On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Bearish Factors to Consider

Despite the bullish momentum, several bearish factors exist. Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On July 3, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to June rose 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.

The USDA’s record production forecast also weighs on the market. However, the supply tightening due to harvest delays and El Niño risks may offset these bearish factors.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise on Monday?September arabica gained 3.43% and September robusta rose 1.12% on Monday, July 27.

What is driving the price increase?Heavy rain in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region—32.4 mm, 2,700% above average—is disrupting the coffee harvest and tightening supplies.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% five-year average.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags, while robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year, led by Brazil’s recovery.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

Coffee Drinkers Shift to Whole Beans as Prices Soar

Posted on July 21, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Qahwa World / Lavazza Group
Author: Editorial Team
Date: July 21, 2026

Coffee Drinkers Shift to Whole Beans as Prices Soar

Consumers are buying less but better coffee as global prices remain elevated.
Whole bean demand surged 46% year-over-year, according to consumer data.
Home brewing equipment sales jumped: drip coffee makers up 66%, espresso machines up 50%.
Lavazza reported strong 2025 revenue of €3.9 billion, up 15.7%.
Lavazza plans to launch Tablì, a sustainable single-serve system using compressed coffee tablets.
Nielsen data shows whole bean sales outpacing overall coffee category across UK and Europe.
Price volatility is expected to persist, with no retail price cuts in sight.

Global coffee prices have remained elevated for four consecutive years. Consumers are adapting by buying less but better. This trend toward whole bean coffee and bean-to-cup machines represents a significant market shift.

Giuseppe Lavazza, Chairman of the Lavazza Group, called it the sector’s most important trend. “People are looking for beans,” he said. “They enjoy replicating the coffee shop experience at home. Maybe they prefer to consume a little less but of better quality.”

The Trend Emerged in 2024

This shift did not appear overnight. Early indicators were visible in 2024, well before the price peaks of 2025 intensified the movement. Pattern, a consumer demand analysis firm, reported whole bean coffee demand surged 46% year-over-year. This growth was accompanied by strong increases in home brewing equipment.

Drip coffee makers rose 66%. Espresso machines increased 50%. Accessories such as bean storage also grew 20%. The report highlighted a broader move toward serious at-home coffee preparation. Whole beans serve as the starting point for better freshness and flavor.

Multiple National Coffee Association surveys showed sustained high levels of at-home coffee consumption. Around 81% of past-day drinkers consumed coffee at home in some periods. Out-of-home consumption recovered post-pandemic, but the at-home habit remained strong. Consumers continued seeking premium experiences and better value.

**2024 Early Indicators – Consumer Demand Growth**
Category	Growth
Whole bean coffee demand	+46%
Drip coffee makers	+66%
Espresso machines	+50%
Bean storage accessories	+20%

Current Reality: Price Surge Accelerates Change

Record-high coffee prices in 2025 pushed the trend into the mainstream. Poor harvests in Brazil and Vietnam drove the price surge. Climate change impacts, geopolitical disruptions, and financial speculation also contributed.

Nielsen data for the year to May 2026 shows the shift clearly. In the United Kingdom, whole-bean sales rose 20.3% by volume. This far outpaced the overall at-home coffee category, which grew just 2.8%. Value sales jumped 36.8%, while bean-to-cup machine sales increased 33.5%.

In Europe, France saw 35% growth by value. Italy recorded 33% growth. Germany, Europe’s largest coffee market, saw 31.2% growth. Whole beans have now surpassed traditional roast-and-ground coffee in volume in Germany.

In the United States, the shift was more modest but consistent. Whole-bean unit sales rose 3.2% over 52 weeks to June 2026. Meanwhile, pod sales fell 4.9% and ground coffee declined 3.9%.

**Nielsen Data – Whole Bean Sales Growth (Year to May 2026)**
Market	Growth
United Kingdom (volume)	+20.3%
United Kingdom (value)	+36.8%
France (value)	+35.0%
Italy (value)	+33.0%
Germany (value)	+31.2%
United States (unit sales)	+3.2%

Why Prices Soared

The coffee market has faced four years of upheaval. Adverse weather and weak harvests in Brazil and Vietnam were key factors. Climate change impacts, including El Niño risks, added pressure. Geopolitical disruptions, higher shipping costs, and financial speculation in futures markets also played a role.

In the UK, at-home coffee prices rose another 6.3% in the year to May 2026. Roasters found it harder to manage costs by blending cheaper Robusta with Arabica. Both varieties hit record levels simultaneously.

Lavazza noted that futures prices have eased from 2025 peaks. However, the market remains too volatile for widespread retail price cuts. “We think there is not time to think about a possible cut in prices,” he said. “The possibility of another increase is not totally over.” At least two strong harvests in Brazil and Vietnam will be needed to rebuild global inventories.

Lavazza’s Performance and Strategic Response

Despite industry challenges, Lavazza reported strong 2025 results. Revenue reached €3.9 billion, up 15.7%. EBITDA rose 8.8% to €340 million. The company is innovating to stay ahead.

Lavazza plans to launch Tablì in the UK in September 2026. This is a single-serve system using compressed coffee tablets. It addresses waste and recycling concerns associated with plastic and aluminum pods. “Capsule is over,” Lavazza declared. “This is a new benchmark.”

Broader Implications and Future Outlook

Consumer behavior is evolving. Coffee remains recession-resistant. However, buyers are trading down in volume while trading up in quality and experience. The “less but better” philosophy reflects economic pressure and a desire for premium at-home rituals.

The pandemic-initiated home-brewing boom has become structural. Demand for whole beans rewards freshness, flavor complexity, and better value per cup. Persistent climate risks, cautious buying by roasters, and farmers holding stock in hope of higher prices continue to shape the market.

Volatility is now “the new constant,” according to Lavazza. Opportunities remain in premium home equipment, sustainable packaging innovations, and single-origin and specialty offerings.

“People are looking for beans and they enjoy maybe to replicate at home the experience of the coffee shop. Maybe they prefer to consume a little less but of better quality.”

— Giuseppe Lavazza, Chairman, Lavazza Group

Conclusion

What began as a noticeable trend in 2024 has evolved into a major market shift in 2026. Soaring prices amplified the movement. Consumers are not abandoning coffee. They are redefining how they enjoy it. As Lavazza observed, this represents a “fundamental transformation in terms of supply and demand.”

For roasters, retailers, and consumers alike, the message is clear. Quality, freshness, and thoughtful preparation are winning out in an era of higher costs and greater awareness.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the “less but better” coffee trend?Consumers are buying less coffee in volume but choosing higher quality whole beans and premium home brewing equipment to replicate café experiences at home.

How much did whole bean demand surge?Whole bean coffee demand surged 46% year-over-year, according to consumer demand analysis from Pattern.

What are the key market data highlights?In the UK, whole-bean sales rose 20.3% by volume. France saw 35% value growth, Italy 33%, and Germany 31.2%.

Why are coffee prices so high?Poor harvests in Brazil and Vietnam, climate change, geopolitical disruptions, and financial speculation have driven prices to record levels.

What is Lavazza’s new Tablì product?Tablì is a single-serve system using compressed coffee tablets instead of plastic or aluminum pods, addressing waste and recycling concerns.

Will coffee prices come down soon?Lavazza says prices remain too volatile for retail cuts. At least two strong harvests in Brazil and Vietnam are needed to rebuild inventories.

Delays to Brazil’s Harvest Push Coffee Prices Higher

Posted on July 21, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 20, 2026

Delays to Brazil’s Harvest Push Coffee Prices Higher

September arabica rose 1.33% and robusta gained 0.18% on Monday.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is only 64% complete, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% average.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 3.75-month high of 4,239 lots.
Arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 329,870 bags.
Heavy rains in Brazil have disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered crop quality.
El Niño concerns continue to support prices with potential impacts on Brazil’s flowering.
Only 0.2 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais last week, 20% of the historical average.

Coffee prices moved higher on Monday. September arabica closed up 4.25 cents, gaining 1.33%. September robusta closed up 7 points, a rise of 0.18%. The gains came amid delays in Brazil’s coffee harvest.

Safras & Mercado reported the harvest is 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%. The slow pace continues to support prices.

Harvest Delays Drive Coffee Prices Higher

Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is progressing slowly. Heavy rains have disrupted fieldwork. These rains may have also lowered crop quality. Brazilian farmers are holding back on sales. They hope prices will rise further. They are also bracing for potential El Niño impacts.

On July 6, arabica soared to a 5.75-month high. On July 7, robusta also hit a 5.75-month high. However, prices have since whipsawed in a wide range. Trading conditions remain illiquid. This has led to volatile price moves.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress (as of July 15)**
Period	Completion
Current year (2026/27)	64%
Previous year (2025/26)	77%
Five-year average	70%

Margin Hikes Reduce Liquidity

ICE raised margin requirements for coffee futures recently. This action has dried up liquidity. Many commodity funds have closed their positions. The result has been excessive one-way price moves. Volatility has been amplified by the illiquid conditions.

This has created a challenging trading environment. Prices have moved sharply in both directions. Market participants should expect continued volatility in the near term.

Inventory Trends Support Prices

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months. This is supportive for coffee prices. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 329,870 bags on Monday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low on May 15. However, they have since risen to a 3.75-month high of 4,239 lots on Monday.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	329,870 bags	2.25-year low
Robusta inventories (May 15)	3,631 lots	2-year low
Robusta inventories (current)	4,239 lots	3.75-month high

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that only 0.2 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais in the week through July 19. This is Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region. This represents only 20% of the historical average. The dry conditions add to market concerns.

Bearish Factors to Consider

Despite the bullish momentum, several bearish factors exist. Recent strength in Brazil’s coffee exports is negative for prices. Last Wednesday, Cecafe reported Brazil’s June green coffee exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year to 2.64 million bags.

Vietnam’s soaring coffee exports are also bearish for robusta prices. On July 3, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported coffee exports from January to June rose 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projected record global production. World coffee production in 2025/26 is forecast to increase 2% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags. Robusta production is projected to rise 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

**Global Supply Forecasts (USDA)**
Category	Forecast	Change
World coffee production 2025/26	178.848 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica production	95.515 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta production	83.333 million bags	+10.9%
Brazil 2025/26 production	63 million bags	-3.1%
Vietnam 2025/26 output	30.8 million bags	+6.2%
Ending stocks 2025/26	20.148 million bags	-5.4%

Technical Perspective

On June 9, arabica coffee fell to a 20.5-month nearest-futures low. Robusta slid to a 3.5-month low. This occurred amid an outlook for a bumper coffee crop in Brazil. However, prices have since recovered significantly. The market remains highly volatile with significant upside potential.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise on Monday?September arabica gained 1.33% and September robusta rose 0.18% on Monday, July 20.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% five-year average.

Why are ICE coffee inventories important?Low inventories reduce available supply and support higher prices. Arabica inventories recently hit a 2.25-year low.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño can delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields.

What was the rainfall in Minas Gerais last week?Only 0.2 mm of rain fell, representing just 20% of the historical average, raising concerns about dry conditions.

What is the global production forecast?USDA forecasts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, with robusta up 10.9% and arabica down 4.7%.

Coffee Prices Jump on Slow Brazil Harvest

Posted on July 18, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 17, 2026

Coffee Prices Jump on Slow Brazil Harvest

September arabica rose 2.46% and robusta gained 2.11% on Friday.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is only 64% complete, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% average.
ICE raised margin requirements twice last week, reducing liquidity and amplifying volatility.
Heavy rains in Brazil have disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered crop quality.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 332,945 bags.
El Niño concerns continue to support prices with potential impacts on Brazil’s flowering.
Brazil’s June green coffee exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year to 2.64 million bags.

Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Friday. September arabica closed up 7.70 cents, gaining 2.46%. September robusta closed up 80 points, a rise of 2.11%. The rally came amid delays in Brazil’s coffee harvest.

Safras & Mercado reported the harvest is 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%. The slow pace continues to support prices.

Harvest Delays Drive Coffee Prices Higher

Last Monday, arabica soared to a 5.5-month high. Last Tuesday, robusta also hit a 5.5-month high. However, prices have since whipsawed in a wide range. Trading conditions remain illiquid. This has led to volatile price moves.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress (as of July 15)**
Period	Completion
Current year (2026/27)	64%
Previous year (2025/26)	77%
Five-year average	70%

Margin Hikes Reduce Liquidity

ICE raised margin requirements for coffee futures twice last week. This action has dried up liquidity. Many commodity funds have closed their positions. The result has been excessive one-way price moves. Volatility has been amplified by the illiquid conditions.

This has created a challenging trading environment. Prices have moved sharply in both directions. Market participants should expect continued volatility in the near term.

Inventory Trends Support Coffee Prices

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months. This is supportive for coffee prices. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 332,945 bags on Friday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low on May 15. However, they have since risen to a 3.5-month high of 4,220 lots.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	332,945 bags	2.25-year low
Robusta inventories (May 15)	3,631 lots	2-year low
Robusta inventories (current)	4,220 lots	3.5-month high

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Last Wednesday, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Somar Meteorologia reported no rain fell in Minas Gerais in the week through July 5. This is Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region. The dry conditions add to market concerns.

Bearish Factors to Consider

Despite the bullish momentum, several bearish factors exist. Recent strength in Brazil’s coffee exports is negative for prices. On Thursday, Cecafe reported Brazil’s June green coffee exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year to 2.64 million bags.

Fund positioning also poses risks. Last Friday’s COT data showed funds boosted their long positions in robusta by 5,607 contracts in the week ended July 7. This brought net-long positions to 44,195, the most in more than two years. Such concentrated long positions can accelerate price declines if investors begin to unwind.

**Global Supply Forecasts (USDA)**
Category	Forecast	Change
World coffee production 2025/26	178.848 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica production	95.515 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta production	83.333 million bags	+10.9%
Brazil 2025/26 production	63 million bags	-3.1%
Vietnam 2025/26 output	30.8 million bags	+6.2%
Ending stocks 2025/26	20.148 million bags	-5.4%

Technical Perspective

On June 9, arabica coffee fell to a 20.25-month nearest-futures low. Robusta slid to a 3.25-month low. This occurred amid an outlook for a bumper coffee crop in Brazil. However, prices have since recovered significantly. The market remains highly volatile with significant upside potential.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise on Friday?September arabica gained 2.46% and September robusta rose 2.11% on Friday, July 17.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% five-year average.

Why are ICE coffee inventories important?Low inventories reduce available supply and support higher prices. Arabica inventories recently hit a 2.25-year low.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño can delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields.

What is the fund positioning in robusta coffee?Funds held 44,195 net-long positions as of July 7, the highest level in more than two years, increasing downside risk.

What is the global production forecast?USDA forecasts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, with robusta up 10.9% and arabica down 4.7%.

Coffee Returns to Bullish Mode After 49% Rally

Posted on July 16, 2026July 16, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Andrew Hecht
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 14, 2026

Coffee Returns to Bullish Mode After 49% Rally

ICE Arabica coffee futures surged 49.5% in one month, erasing four months of declines.
The rally followed a 37.8% drop from January to June, with prices bottoming at $2.3885 per pound.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is behind schedule due to heavy rain disrupting operations.
ICE Arabica exchange inventories reached a two-year low of 366,756 bags.
Emerging El Niño weather patterns could damage Brazil’s flowering and crop.
Brazilian farmers are withholding beans, storing them for sale at higher prices.
Key resistance is at the October 2025 record high of $4.3795 per pound.

Coffee futures are back in bullish mode. ICE Arabica coffee surged 49.5% over the past month. The rally erased four months of declines. Prices bottomed at $2.3885 per pound on June 9. On July 6, they reached $3.5700 per pound.

The volatility has been extreme. Coffee futures fell 37.8% from January to June. Then they made up all those losses in under one month. The market remains highly volatile with significant upside potential.

Why Is Coffee Back in Bullish Mode?

Several factors are driving the rally. First, Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is behind schedule. Heavy rain has disrupted harvesting operations. This has increased concerns about coffee bean quality. The prospects for lower Brazilian output have been bullish for prices.

Second, global inventories are low. ICE Arabica exchange inventories reached a two-year low of 366,756 bags. This creates the potential for supply squeezes. Third, production costs are rising due to stubborn global inflation.

**Top Coffee Producers (2025)**
Country	Share of Global Production
Brazil	37.08%
Vietnam	16.54%
Colombia	8.44%
Ethiopia	~4%
Indonesia	~4%

Brazil’s Dominance and Harvest Issues

Brazil is the world’s leading coffee producer. It accounts for 37.08% of global production. This is nearly as much as the next four countries combined. Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia produce a combined 37.41%.

Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is behind schedule. Heavy rain disrupted the harvest. This increased concerns that coffee bean quality had declined. The prospects for lower Brazilian output have been bullish for ICE Arabica coffee futures prices.

El Niño Risks and Farmer Stockpiling

The emerging El Niño weather pattern could trigger extreme temperature shifts. Irregular precipitation could damage coffee tree flowering. This could negatively impact the overall Brazilian crop. These concerns are pushing prices higher.

Brazilian farmers have begun withholding beans. They are storing them for sale when prices rise. This behavior further tightens supply. It also adds upward pressure on prices.

Technical Levels to Watch

The coffee futures market has clear technical levels. The record high stands at $4.3795 per pound from October 2025. This is the key resistance level. Technical support sits at the May 2025 low of $2.3885 per pound.

At $3.16 per pound on July 7, coffee futures were below the midpoint. However, they had traded above it on July 6. There is significant room for volatile price swings between these levels.

**Key Technical Levels for Arabica Coffee**
Level	Price (per pound)
Record High (October 2025)	$4.3795
Current Price (July 7, 2026)	$3.16
Recent Low (June 9, 2026)	$2.3885
Historical Support (May 2019)	$0.876

Futures and Options Trading

There are no ETFs that track coffee prices. Participation is limited to ICE futures and futures options. Each futures contract contains 37,500 pounds of Arabica coffee. At $3.28 per pound, the contract value is $123,000.

Traders can control this value with an original margin deposit of $23,227. This represents 18.9% of the contract value. Recent volatility caused margin requirements to rise from 7.9% of contract value. The exchange can change margin requirements based on market volatility. Wider price swings lead to higher margin requirements.

ICE offers put and call options on Arabica coffee futures. Long options involve paying a premium and are not subject to margin requirements. Short options require margin. The leverage is significant for market participants.

Risk Management Is Essential

Coffee is back in bullish mode in July 2026. This will likely increase trading activity. It could also lead to wide price swings. Any risk position in ICE Arabica coffee requires a risk-reward plan. Traders should use stops and profit horizons. This protects capital and establishes reasonable odds of success.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is coffee in bullish mode?Brazil harvest delays, low inventories, El Niño risks, and rising production costs are driving coffee futures higher.

How much did coffee futures rise in July 2026?ICE Arabica coffee futures surged 49.5% in one month, erasing four months of declines.

What is Brazil’s share of global coffee production?Brazil accounts for 37.08% of global coffee production, nearly as much as the next four countries combined.

What are the key technical levels for coffee?Resistance is at the October 2025 record high of $4.3795 per pound. Support is at the May 2025 low of $2.3885 per pound.

Are there ETFs that track coffee prices?No. The only soft commodity ETF is Teucrium Sugar ETF (CANE). Coffee participation is limited to ICE futures and options.

What is the margin requirement for coffee futures?The original margin deposit is $23,227 per contract, representing 18.9% of the contract value. Margin requirements can change based on volatility.

ICO Coffee Market Report June 2026: Prices Rebound on El Niño Fears

Posted on July 14, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, June 2026
Date: July 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report June 2026: Prices Rebound on El Niño Fears

Executive Summary

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I‑CIP) averaged 248.90 US cents/lb in June 2026, down 2.8% from May. However, prices rebounded sharply by 17.4% from a two-year low on June 9 to a two-month high at month-end.
Super El Niño fears (67% confidence) and excessive rainfall in Brazil (1,956% above average in Minas Gerais) slowed the harvest and raised quality concerns, reversing the downward trend.
Robusta prices rose 1.7% to 169.39 US cents/lb, while Brazilian Naturals fell 7.4% to 272.01 US cents/lb.
US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags, the lowest since February 2024. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags.
Global green bean exports fell 4.1% to 10.8 million bags in May 2026, driven by a 17.2% drop in Brazilian Naturals. Robusta exports rose 4.8%.
The Strait of Hormuz closure added 10-14 days to shipping routes, raising fuel costs 68% and fertilizer prices 25%.
The USDA forecast a record Brazilian 2026/27 crop at 71.9 million bags (+14%), while Rabobank raised its global Arabica surplus estimate by 35.7%.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 248.90 US cents per pound in June 2026. This was a 2.8% decrease from May 2026.

Prices continued their downward trend in early June. They fell to 231.96 US cents/lb on June 9, the lowest level in nearly two years. However, prices then rebounded sharply by 17.4%.

They reached a two-month high of 272.39 US cents/lb at the end of the month. Weather emerged as the principal driver of coffee price dynamics in June.

The Colombian Milds and Robustas recorded modest gains. The Colombian Milds rose 0.4% to 324.60 US cents/lb. Robustas increased 1.7% to 169.39 US cents/lb.

In contrast, the Other Milds declined 2.4% to 307.83 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals fell 7.4% to 272.01 US cents/lb. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags.

US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags. This was the lowest level since February 2024. The market became increasingly nervous as inventories tightened.

Super El Niño Fears Drive Rebound

Market sentiment shifted abruptly in June. Growing confidence that El Niño would develop into a Super El Niño halted the downward price movement on June 9.

The Japan Meteorological Agency and NOAA released reports on June 10 and 11. They indicated 67% confidence in a Super El Niño event, the highest confidence level on record.

These forecasts raised concerns about the potential impact on the 2026/27 coffee harvest. The effects vary across regions and seasons.

Reduced rainfall is expected in the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico. Raised temperatures and reduced rainfall are forecast for northern Brazil and parts of South America.

Increased rainfall is expected in southern Brazil and Bolivia. More erratic rainfall and flooding are forecast for East Africa. Drought conditions are expected in Southeast Asia.

On June 17 and 24, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was progressing slowly. The harvest reached 39% and 44% completion, respectively.

The delay was concentrated in Arabica areas. Excess rainfall disrupted harvesting and drying operations, particularly in Minas Gerais. The 44% completion figure on June 24 was below the 51% recorded a year earlier and the five-year average of 47%.

On June 29, Somar Meteorologia measured 31.3 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais. This was equivalent to 1,956% of the historical average for the period. The unusually high precipitation occurred during the normally dry season. It delayed harvesting and drying operations and raised concerns over bean quality.

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Add Supply Pressure

The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed from February 28. This forced Asia-Europe shipping routes to divert via the Cape of Good Hope. Transit times increased by 10 to 14 days.

Bunker fuel prices were up 68% from mid-to-late February. Container spot rates roughly doubled. Fertilizer prices increased 25%.

A gradual reopening occurred on June 22-23 following the U.S.-Iran agreement on June 17. This pushed Robusta prices to a one-week low. However, attacks on the Ever Lovely on June 25 and the Kiku on June 27 renewed geopolitical tensions within days. The associated premiums returned quickly.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 1.09 million bags on June 30. This was the lowest level since February 2024. The decline signaled tighter availability of deliverable stocks. The market was left with limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions.

Supply Fundamentals and Bearish Factors

On June 1, the USDA forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at a record level. The forecast was 14% above the previous season. Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global Arabica surplus estimate by 35.7%.

These forecasts reinforced previous positive reports. CONAB’s official second survey projected Brazil’s total crop at 66.7 million bags. Safras & Mercado projected a total crop increase of 13.4%.

In late May, the USDA revised its estimate of Vietnam’s 2025/26 output upwards to 31.7 million bags. It forecast production at 32.5 million bags for 2026/27. The dollar index stood at 101.6 during the week of June 22. This was close to a 15-month high, creating a headwind for coffee prices.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets contracted by 13.3% to 100.86 US cents/lb in June 2026. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.6%.

Exports: Arabica Declines, Robusta Gains

Global green bean exports totalled 10.8 million bags in May 2026. This was a 4.1% decline compared to 11.26 million bags in May 2025. All coffee groups recorded declines except Robustas.

Robusta exports were up 4.8% to 4.34 million bags. This was driven mainly by Brazil, where exports surged by 195.6% to 0.61 million bags. The sharp rise reflects differences in harvest timing between the current and previous Robusta harvests.

Colombian Milds exports fell by 1.7% to 0.98 million bags. This marked the seventh consecutive month of negative growth. Other Milds shipments fell by 2.8% to 2.75 million bags. This was the first negative growth observed in coffee year 2025/26.

Brazilian Naturals exports fell by 17.2% to 2.73 million bags. This marked the 15th consecutive month of negative growth. The declines were primarily driven by Brazil and Ethiopia.

Total Arabica exports decreased to 6.46 million bags in May 2026. This was a 9.3% drop from 7.12 million bags in May 2025. As a result, Arabica’s share of total green bean exports fell to 60.2% from 64.0% a year earlier.

Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60‑kg bags)

Coffee Group	May 2025	May 2026	Change
Robustas	4.14	4.34	+4.8%
Colombian Milds	0.99	0.98	-1.7%
Other Milds	2.82	2.75	-2.8%
Brazilian Naturals	3.30	2.73	-17.2%

Exports by Region: Mixed Performance

Global exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 3.2% to 12.38 million bags in May 2026. The dynamics across the four regions were mixed.

Exports from Asia & Oceania were up 0.4% to 4.32 million bags. India led the growth with exports increasing 33.7% to 0.74 million bags. However, this was largely offset by decreases in Indonesia and Vietnam.

Africa’s exports decreased by 24.1% to 1.63 million bags. The contraction was driven largely by Ethiopia and Uganda. Their combined exports fell to an estimated 1.31 million bags from 1.77 million bags in May 2025.

South America’s exports increased by 4.3% to 4.29 million bags. This was the first monthly increase in 18 months. The upturn was driven mainly by Brazil, whose exports were up 4.3%.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America decreased by 3.8% to 2.14 million bags. This was the first negative growth in coffee year 2025/26, driven mainly by Nicaragua.

Soluble coffee exports increased by 3.6% to 1.51 million bags. Vietnam, Brazil, and India were the largest exporters. Roasted bean exports were up 10.8% to 0.07 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in June 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 248.90 US cents/lb in June 2026, a 2.8% decrease from May. However, prices rebounded sharply from a two-year low on June 9 to a two-month high by month-end.

What caused the price rebound in June?

Super El Niño fears (67% confidence) and excessive rainfall in Brazil (1,956% above average in Minas Gerais) slowed the harvest and raised quality concerns, reversing the downward trend.

How did coffee stocks perform in June?

US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags, the lowest since February 2024. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags. Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 1.09 million bags.

How did the Strait of Hormuz closure affect coffee prices?

The closure added 10-14 days to shipping routes, raising bunker fuel costs 68%, container spot rates by about 100%, and fertilizer prices 25%.

What were the export trends in May 2026?

Global green bean exports fell 4.1% to 10.8 million bags. Robusta exports rose 4.8%, while Brazilian Naturals fell 17.2%. Total Arabica exports were down 9.3%.

What was Brazil’s harvest outlook in June?

The USDA forecast a record 2026/27 Brazilian crop at 71.9 million bags (+14%). However, excessive rainfall in June slowed harvesting, with only 44% completed by June 24, below the five-year average of 47%.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, June 2026 | Date: July 2026

Margin Hikes Drive Coffee Prices Lower

Posted on July 11, 2026July 11, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Commodity Bulletin / ICE / USDA / ICO
Author: Editorial Team
Date: July 10, 2026

Margin Hikes Drive Coffee Prices Lower

September arabica fell 13.65 cents (-3.92%), while robusta dropped 191 points (-4.72%) on Friday.
ICE raised margin requirements twice in one week, reducing liquidity and forcing fund liquidation.
Funds increased net-long robusta positions to 44,195 contracts, the highest in over two years.
Brazil’s harvest is only 52% complete, behind last year’s 60% and the 55% five-year average.
El Niño concerns grow as forecasts warn of delayed rainfall during Brazil’s flowering period.
USDA projects a record 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop for 2026/27, up 14% from last year.
Global 2025/26 production is forecast at a record 178.848 million bags.

Coffee prices ended the week sharply lower. September arabica fell 13.65 cents to close at 3.92% lower. September robusta dropped 191 points, a decline of 4.72%. The selloff extended the extreme volatility seen over recent sessions.

The decline followed two margin requirement increases by the Intercontinental Exchange. Higher margins reduced market liquidity. This forced many commodity funds to liquidate positions. The result amplified one-sided price movements.

Speculative Positioning Adds Pressure

Fund positioning has added to the downward pressure. According to Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, funds increased their net-long robusta position. They added 5,607 contracts in the week ending July 7. Their total reached 44,195 contracts. This is the highest level in more than two years.

Such concentrated long positions can accelerate price declines. This happens when investors begin unwinding their holdings. The current market structure remains vulnerable to further selloffs.

Brazil Harvest Behind Schedule

Earlier this week, coffee prices had surged on supply concerns. Arabica reached a 5½-month high on Monday. Robusta climbed to a five-month high on Tuesday. These gains were supported by delays in Brazil’s harvest.

According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 52% complete as of July 1. This compares with 60% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 55%. The slower pace reflects persistent rainfall disruptions.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress (as of July 1, 2026)**
Period	Harvest Progress
Current year (2026)	52%
Previous year (2025)	60%
Five-year average	55%

Weather and El Niño Concerns

Weather concerns continue to underpin the market. Forecasts from Rural Clima indicate rainfall across much of Brazil during mid-July. This could negatively affect coffee crops. Heavy rains over the past month have already disrupted harvesting activities. They may have also reduced crop quality.

Growing concerns over El Niño continue to influence market sentiment. Commercial warned that the phenomenon could delay rainfall in Brazil. The critical flowering period in September and October is at risk. This could potentially affect the 2026/27 crop.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center also issued a warning this week. The developing El Niño event could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This increases the risk of floods, droughts, and temperature extremes across Asia and South America.

Meanwhile, Somar Meteorologia reported that no rainfall was recorded in Minas Gerais. This is Brazil’s largest coffee-growing state. The dry spell occurred during the week ending July 5.

Inventory and Supply Data

ICE-certified coffee inventories remain an important market support. Arabica stocks fell to 344,269 bags on Friday. This is their lowest level in more than 2¼ years. Robusta inventories, however, have recovered from a two-year low. They rose from 3,631 lots on May 15 to 4,200 lots. This is the highest level in about 3½ months.

Bearish Supply Outlook

Despite recent weather-related support, the broader supply outlook remains bearish. On June 3, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projected a record Brazilian coffee crop. The forecast stands at 71.9 million bags for 2026/27. This represents a 14% increase from the previous year.

Rabobank also raised its forecast for the global arabica surplus. The new estimate is 9.5 million bags. This is up from 7.0 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May. The total reached 2.73 million bags.

Vietnam is also adding to supply expectations. The country’s National Statistics Office reported strong export figures. Coffee exports during January–June 2026 increased 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is expected to increase 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

**Global Coffee Supply Forecasts**
Indicator	Value
Global 2025/26 production (USDA)	178.848 million bags (record)
Brazil 2026/27 crop (USDA FAS)	71.9 million bags (record)
Global arabica surplus (Rabobank)	9.5 million bags
Vietnam 2025 coffee exports	1.58 million metric tons (+17.5%)
Vietnam 2025/26 production	1.76 million metric tons (4-year high)
Global ending stocks (USDA)	20.148 million bags (-5.4%)

The International Coffee Organization previously reported global coffee exports for the current marketing year. Exports declined 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.

According to the USDA’s biannual report, global coffee production for 2025/26 is forecast to reach a record 178.848 million bags. This represents a 2% increase from the previous year. Arabica production is expected to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags. Robusta production is projected to rise 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

The USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2025/26 production at 63 million bags. This is down 3.1% from the previous year. Vietnam’s output is expected to increase 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are forecast to fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags a year earlier.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did coffee prices fall sharply on Friday?September arabica fell 3.92% and robusta dropped 4.72% after ICE raised margin requirements twice in one week, reducing liquidity and forcing fund liquidation.

What is the current fund positioning in coffee?Funds increased their net-long robusta position to 44,195 contracts, the highest level in more than two years, making the market vulnerable to rapid selloffs.

How is Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest progressing?The harvest is 52% complete as of July 1, behind last year’s 60% and the five-year average of 55%, due to persistent rainfall delays.

What is the El Niño risk for coffee production?El Niño could delay rainfall in Brazil during the September-October flowering period, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop, with forecasts suggesting one of the strongest events in 75 years.

What does the supply outlook show?USDA projects a record 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop for 2026/27, while Vietnam’s exports rose 7.3% in early 2026, signaling ample global supply.

What is the global production forecast?USDA forecasts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, with robusta up 10.9% and arabica down 4.7%.