Coffee Prices Sharply Higher as Brazil’s Harvest Is Delayed

Posted on July 28, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa Wold
Date: July 27, 2026

Coffee Prices Sharply Higher as Brazil’s Harvest Is Delayed

September arabica rose 3.43% and robusta gained 1.12% on Monday.
32.4 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais last week—2,700% above the historical average.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is only 64% complete, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% average.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags.
USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27.
El Niño risks continue to support prices with potential impacts on Brazil’s flowering.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots.

Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Monday. September arabica closed up 10.75 cents, gaining 3.43%. September robusta closed up 42 points, a rise of 1.12%. The surge came amid concerns that heavy rain in Brazil will further disrupt the coffee harvest.

Somar Meteorologia reported 32.4 mm of rain in Minas Gerais for the week ended July 26. This represents 2,700% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region.

Harvest Delays Support Coffee Prices

The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is supporting prices. Harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 47.3% complete as of July 17. This is behind the year-earlier pace of 59%. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%.

Heavy rainfall in recent weeks has disrupted harvesting operations. Coffee quality may also be affected. Brazilian farmers continue to hold back sales, hoping for higher prices.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of July 17)	47.3%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	59%
Brazil overall (as of July 15)	64%
Previous year (July 15)	77%
Five-year average (July 15)	70%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended July 26)	32.4 mm (2,700% of average)

USDA Forecast and Market Reaction

Last Friday, coffee prices tumbled to 3-week lows. This followed the USDA’s forecast last Wednesday that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags. The increase is mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.

The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year. However, robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast a record Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags for 2026/27, up 14% year-on-year.

**Key Price Drivers for Coffee**
Factor	Impact	Details
Brazil rainfall	Bullish	32.4 mm rain, 2,700% above average, disrupting harvest
Harvest progress	Bullish	64% complete vs. 77% last year and 70% average
Arabica inventories	Bullish	2.5-year low of 292,810 bags
USDA production forecast	Bearish	Record 189.7 million bags globally
Robusta inventories	Bearish	4.25-month high of 4,254 lots
El Niño risks	Bullish	Potential impact on flowering in September-October

Inventory Trends Support Arabica, Weigh on Robusta

Rising inventories are weighing on robusta coffee. ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots last Wednesday. They were mildly below that level at 4,228 lots on Monday.

By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags on Monday. This tight supply situation supports higher arabica prices.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil. This September and October is when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop.

On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Bearish Factors to Consider

Despite the bullish momentum, several bearish factors exist. Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On July 3, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to June rose 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.

The USDA’s record production forecast also weighs on the market. However, the supply tightening due to harvest delays and El Niño risks may offset these bearish factors.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise on Monday?September arabica gained 3.43% and September robusta rose 1.12% on Monday, July 27.

What is driving the price increase?Heavy rain in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region—32.4 mm, 2,700% above average—is disrupting the coffee harvest and tightening supplies.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% five-year average.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags, while robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year, led by Brazil’s recovery.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

Delays to Brazil’s Harvest Push Coffee Prices Higher

Posted on July 21, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 20, 2026

Delays to Brazil’s Harvest Push Coffee Prices Higher

September arabica rose 1.33% and robusta gained 0.18% on Monday.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is only 64% complete, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% average.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 3.75-month high of 4,239 lots.
Arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 329,870 bags.
Heavy rains in Brazil have disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered crop quality.
El Niño concerns continue to support prices with potential impacts on Brazil’s flowering.
Only 0.2 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais last week, 20% of the historical average.

Coffee prices moved higher on Monday. September arabica closed up 4.25 cents, gaining 1.33%. September robusta closed up 7 points, a rise of 0.18%. The gains came amid delays in Brazil’s coffee harvest.

Safras & Mercado reported the harvest is 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%. The slow pace continues to support prices.

Harvest Delays Drive Coffee Prices Higher

Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is progressing slowly. Heavy rains have disrupted fieldwork. These rains may have also lowered crop quality. Brazilian farmers are holding back on sales. They hope prices will rise further. They are also bracing for potential El Niño impacts.

On July 6, arabica soared to a 5.75-month high. On July 7, robusta also hit a 5.75-month high. However, prices have since whipsawed in a wide range. Trading conditions remain illiquid. This has led to volatile price moves.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress (as of July 15)**
Period	Completion
Current year (2026/27)	64%
Previous year (2025/26)	77%
Five-year average	70%

Margin Hikes Reduce Liquidity

ICE raised margin requirements for coffee futures recently. This action has dried up liquidity. Many commodity funds have closed their positions. The result has been excessive one-way price moves. Volatility has been amplified by the illiquid conditions.

This has created a challenging trading environment. Prices have moved sharply in both directions. Market participants should expect continued volatility in the near term.

Inventory Trends Support Prices

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months. This is supportive for coffee prices. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 329,870 bags on Monday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low on May 15. However, they have since risen to a 3.75-month high of 4,239 lots on Monday.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	329,870 bags	2.25-year low
Robusta inventories (May 15)	3,631 lots	2-year low
Robusta inventories (current)	4,239 lots	3.75-month high

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil. This September and October is when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop.

On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that only 0.2 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais in the week through July 19. This is Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region. This represents only 20% of the historical average. The dry conditions add to market concerns.

Bearish Factors to Consider

Despite the bullish momentum, several bearish factors exist. Recent strength in Brazil’s coffee exports is negative for prices. Last Wednesday, Cecafe reported Brazil’s June green coffee exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year to 2.64 million bags.

Vietnam’s soaring coffee exports are also bearish for robusta prices. On July 3, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported coffee exports from January to June rose 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projected record global production. World coffee production in 2025/26 is forecast to increase 2% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags. Robusta production is projected to rise 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

**Global Supply Forecasts (USDA)**
Category	Forecast	Change
World coffee production 2025/26	178.848 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica production	95.515 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta production	83.333 million bags	+10.9%
Brazil 2025/26 production	63 million bags	-3.1%
Vietnam 2025/26 output	30.8 million bags	+6.2%
Ending stocks 2025/26	20.148 million bags	-5.4%

Technical Perspective

On June 9, arabica coffee fell to a 20.5-month nearest-futures low. Robusta slid to a 3.5-month low. This occurred amid an outlook for a bumper coffee crop in Brazil. However, prices have since recovered significantly. The market remains highly volatile with significant upside potential.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise on Monday?September arabica gained 1.33% and September robusta rose 0.18% on Monday, July 20.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% five-year average.

Why are ICE coffee inventories important?Low inventories reduce available supply and support higher prices. Arabica inventories recently hit a 2.25-year low.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño can delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields.

What was the rainfall in Minas Gerais last week?Only 0.2 mm of rain fell, representing just 20% of the historical average, raising concerns about dry conditions.

What is the global production forecast?USDA forecasts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, with robusta up 10.9% and arabica down 4.7%.

Coffee Prices Jump on Slow Brazil Harvest

Posted on July 18, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 17, 2026

Coffee Prices Jump on Slow Brazil Harvest

September arabica rose 2.46% and robusta gained 2.11% on Friday.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is only 64% complete, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% average.
ICE raised margin requirements twice last week, reducing liquidity and amplifying volatility.
Heavy rains in Brazil have disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered crop quality.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 332,945 bags.
El Niño concerns continue to support prices with potential impacts on Brazil’s flowering.
Brazil’s June green coffee exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year to 2.64 million bags.

Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Friday. September arabica closed up 7.70 cents, gaining 2.46%. September robusta closed up 80 points, a rise of 2.11%. The rally came amid delays in Brazil’s coffee harvest.

Safras & Mercado reported the harvest is 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%. The slow pace continues to support prices.

Harvest Delays Drive Coffee Prices Higher

Last Monday, arabica soared to a 5.5-month high. Last Tuesday, robusta also hit a 5.5-month high. However, prices have since whipsawed in a wide range. Trading conditions remain illiquid. This has led to volatile price moves.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress (as of July 15)**
Period	Completion
Current year (2026/27)	64%
Previous year (2025/26)	77%
Five-year average	70%

Margin Hikes Reduce Liquidity

ICE raised margin requirements for coffee futures twice last week. This action has dried up liquidity. Many commodity funds have closed their positions. The result has been excessive one-way price moves. Volatility has been amplified by the illiquid conditions.

This has created a challenging trading environment. Prices have moved sharply in both directions. Market participants should expect continued volatility in the near term.

Inventory Trends Support Coffee Prices

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months. This is supportive for coffee prices. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 332,945 bags on Friday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low on May 15. However, they have since risen to a 3.5-month high of 4,220 lots.

**ICE Coffee Inventory Levels**
Category	Latest Level	Status
Arabica inventories	332,945 bags	2.25-year low
Robusta inventories (May 15)	3,631 lots	2-year low
Robusta inventories (current)	4,220 lots	3.5-month high

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Last Wednesday, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Somar Meteorologia reported no rain fell in Minas Gerais in the week through July 5. This is Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region. The dry conditions add to market concerns.

Bearish Factors to Consider

Despite the bullish momentum, several bearish factors exist. Recent strength in Brazil’s coffee exports is negative for prices. On Thursday, Cecafe reported Brazil’s June green coffee exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year to 2.64 million bags.

Fund positioning also poses risks. Last Friday’s COT data showed funds boosted their long positions in robusta by 5,607 contracts in the week ended July 7. This brought net-long positions to 44,195, the most in more than two years. Such concentrated long positions can accelerate price declines if investors begin to unwind.

**Global Supply Forecasts (USDA)**
Category	Forecast	Change
World coffee production 2025/26	178.848 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica production	95.515 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta production	83.333 million bags	+10.9%
Brazil 2025/26 production	63 million bags	-3.1%
Vietnam 2025/26 output	30.8 million bags	+6.2%
Ending stocks 2025/26	20.148 million bags	-5.4%

Technical Perspective

On June 9, arabica coffee fell to a 20.25-month nearest-futures low. Robusta slid to a 3.25-month low. This occurred amid an outlook for a bumper coffee crop in Brazil. However, prices have since recovered significantly. The market remains highly volatile with significant upside potential.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise on Friday?September arabica gained 2.46% and September robusta rose 2.11% on Friday, July 17.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% five-year average.

Why are ICE coffee inventories important?Low inventories reduce available supply and support higher prices. Arabica inventories recently hit a 2.25-year low.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño can delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields.

What is the fund positioning in robusta coffee?Funds held 44,195 net-long positions as of July 7, the highest level in more than two years, increasing downside risk.

What is the global production forecast?USDA forecasts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, with robusta up 10.9% and arabica down 4.7%.

Coffee Returns to Bullish Mode After 49% Rally

Posted on July 16, 2026July 16, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Andrew Hecht
Author: Qahwa World
Date: July 14, 2026

Coffee Returns to Bullish Mode After 49% Rally

ICE Arabica coffee futures surged 49.5% in one month, erasing four months of declines.
The rally followed a 37.8% drop from January to June, with prices bottoming at $2.3885 per pound.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is behind schedule due to heavy rain disrupting operations.
ICE Arabica exchange inventories reached a two-year low of 366,756 bags.
Emerging El Niño weather patterns could damage Brazil’s flowering and crop.
Brazilian farmers are withholding beans, storing them for sale at higher prices.
Key resistance is at the October 2025 record high of $4.3795 per pound.

Coffee futures are back in bullish mode. ICE Arabica coffee surged 49.5% over the past month. The rally erased four months of declines. Prices bottomed at $2.3885 per pound on June 9. On July 6, they reached $3.5700 per pound.

The volatility has been extreme. Coffee futures fell 37.8% from January to June. Then they made up all those losses in under one month. The market remains highly volatile with significant upside potential.

Why Is Coffee Back in Bullish Mode?

Several factors are driving the rally. First, Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is behind schedule. Heavy rain has disrupted harvesting operations. This has increased concerns about coffee bean quality. The prospects for lower Brazilian output have been bullish for prices.

Second, global inventories are low. ICE Arabica exchange inventories reached a two-year low of 366,756 bags. This creates the potential for supply squeezes. Third, production costs are rising due to stubborn global inflation.

**Top Coffee Producers (2025)**
Country	Share of Global Production
Brazil	37.08%
Vietnam	16.54%
Colombia	8.44%
Ethiopia	~4%
Indonesia	~4%

Brazil’s Dominance and Harvest Issues

Brazil is the world’s leading coffee producer. It accounts for 37.08% of global production. This is nearly as much as the next four countries combined. Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia produce a combined 37.41%.

Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is behind schedule. Heavy rain disrupted the harvest. This increased concerns that coffee bean quality had declined. The prospects for lower Brazilian output have been bullish for ICE Arabica coffee futures prices.

El Niño Risks and Farmer Stockpiling

The emerging El Niño weather pattern could trigger extreme temperature shifts. Irregular precipitation could damage coffee tree flowering. This could negatively impact the overall Brazilian crop. These concerns are pushing prices higher.

Brazilian farmers have begun withholding beans. They are storing them for sale when prices rise. This behavior further tightens supply. It also adds upward pressure on prices.

Technical Levels to Watch

The coffee futures market has clear technical levels. The record high stands at $4.3795 per pound from October 2025. This is the key resistance level. Technical support sits at the May 2025 low of $2.3885 per pound.

At $3.16 per pound on July 7, coffee futures were below the midpoint. However, they had traded above it on July 6. There is significant room for volatile price swings between these levels.

**Key Technical Levels for Arabica Coffee**
Level	Price (per pound)
Record High (October 2025)	$4.3795
Current Price (July 7, 2026)	$3.16
Recent Low (June 9, 2026)	$2.3885
Historical Support (May 2019)	$0.876

Futures and Options Trading

There are no ETFs that track coffee prices. Participation is limited to ICE futures and futures options. Each futures contract contains 37,500 pounds of Arabica coffee. At $3.28 per pound, the contract value is $123,000.

Traders can control this value with an original margin deposit of $23,227. This represents 18.9% of the contract value. Recent volatility caused margin requirements to rise from 7.9% of contract value. The exchange can change margin requirements based on market volatility. Wider price swings lead to higher margin requirements.

ICE offers put and call options on Arabica coffee futures. Long options involve paying a premium and are not subject to margin requirements. Short options require margin. The leverage is significant for market participants.

Risk Management Is Essential

Coffee is back in bullish mode in July 2026. This will likely increase trading activity. It could also lead to wide price swings. Any risk position in ICE Arabica coffee requires a risk-reward plan. Traders should use stops and profit horizons. This protects capital and establishes reasonable odds of success.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is coffee in bullish mode?Brazil harvest delays, low inventories, El Niño risks, and rising production costs are driving coffee futures higher.

How much did coffee futures rise in July 2026?ICE Arabica coffee futures surged 49.5% in one month, erasing four months of declines.

What is Brazil’s share of global coffee production?Brazil accounts for 37.08% of global coffee production, nearly as much as the next four countries combined.

What are the key technical levels for coffee?Resistance is at the October 2025 record high of $4.3795 per pound. Support is at the May 2025 low of $2.3885 per pound.

Are there ETFs that track coffee prices?No. The only soft commodity ETF is Teucrium Sugar ETF (CANE). Coffee participation is limited to ICE futures and options.

What is the margin requirement for coffee futures?The original margin deposit is $23,227 per contract, representing 18.9% of the contract value. Margin requirements can change based on volatility.

Margin Hikes Drive Coffee Prices Lower

Posted on July 11, 2026July 11, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Commodity Bulletin / ICE / USDA / ICO
Author: Editorial Team
Date: July 10, 2026

Margin Hikes Drive Coffee Prices Lower

September arabica fell 13.65 cents (-3.92%), while robusta dropped 191 points (-4.72%) on Friday.
ICE raised margin requirements twice in one week, reducing liquidity and forcing fund liquidation.
Funds increased net-long robusta positions to 44,195 contracts, the highest in over two years.
Brazil’s harvest is only 52% complete, behind last year’s 60% and the 55% five-year average.
El Niño concerns grow as forecasts warn of delayed rainfall during Brazil’s flowering period.
USDA projects a record 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop for 2026/27, up 14% from last year.
Global 2025/26 production is forecast at a record 178.848 million bags.

Coffee prices ended the week sharply lower. September arabica fell 13.65 cents to close at 3.92% lower. September robusta dropped 191 points, a decline of 4.72%. The selloff extended the extreme volatility seen over recent sessions.

The decline followed two margin requirement increases by the Intercontinental Exchange. Higher margins reduced market liquidity. This forced many commodity funds to liquidate positions. The result amplified one-sided price movements.

Speculative Positioning Adds Pressure

Fund positioning has added to the downward pressure. According to Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, funds increased their net-long robusta position. They added 5,607 contracts in the week ending July 7. Their total reached 44,195 contracts. This is the highest level in more than two years.

Such concentrated long positions can accelerate price declines. This happens when investors begin unwinding their holdings. The current market structure remains vulnerable to further selloffs.

Brazil Harvest Behind Schedule

Earlier this week, coffee prices had surged on supply concerns. Arabica reached a 5½-month high on Monday. Robusta climbed to a five-month high on Tuesday. These gains were supported by delays in Brazil’s harvest.

According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 52% complete as of July 1. This compares with 60% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 55%. The slower pace reflects persistent rainfall disruptions.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress (as of July 1, 2026)**
Period	Harvest Progress
Current year (2026)	52%
Previous year (2025)	60%
Five-year average	55%

Weather and El Niño Concerns

Weather concerns continue to underpin the market. Forecasts from Rural Clima indicate rainfall across much of Brazil during mid-July. This could negatively affect coffee crops. Heavy rains over the past month have already disrupted harvesting activities. They may have also reduced crop quality.

Growing concerns over El Niño continue to influence market sentiment. Commercial warned that the phenomenon could delay rainfall in Brazil. The critical flowering period in September and October is at risk. This could potentially affect the 2026/27 crop.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center also issued a warning this week. The developing El Niño event could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This increases the risk of floods, droughts, and temperature extremes across Asia and South America.

Meanwhile, Somar Meteorologia reported that no rainfall was recorded in Minas Gerais. This is Brazil’s largest coffee-growing state. The dry spell occurred during the week ending July 5.

Inventory and Supply Data

ICE-certified coffee inventories remain an important market support. Arabica stocks fell to 344,269 bags on Friday. This is their lowest level in more than 2¼ years. Robusta inventories, however, have recovered from a two-year low. They rose from 3,631 lots on May 15 to 4,200 lots. This is the highest level in about 3½ months.

Bearish Supply Outlook

Despite recent weather-related support, the broader supply outlook remains bearish. On June 3, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projected a record Brazilian coffee crop. The forecast stands at 71.9 million bags for 2026/27. This represents a 14% increase from the previous year.

Rabobank also raised its forecast for the global arabica surplus. The new estimate is 9.5 million bags. This is up from 7.0 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May. The total reached 2.73 million bags.

Vietnam is also adding to supply expectations. The country’s National Statistics Office reported strong export figures. Coffee exports during January–June 2026 increased 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is expected to increase 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

**Global Coffee Supply Forecasts**
Indicator	Value
Global 2025/26 production (USDA)	178.848 million bags (record)
Brazil 2026/27 crop (USDA FAS)	71.9 million bags (record)
Global arabica surplus (Rabobank)	9.5 million bags
Vietnam 2025 coffee exports	1.58 million metric tons (+17.5%)
Vietnam 2025/26 production	1.76 million metric tons (4-year high)
Global ending stocks (USDA)	20.148 million bags (-5.4%)

The International Coffee Organization previously reported global coffee exports for the current marketing year. Exports declined 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.

According to the USDA’s biannual report, global coffee production for 2025/26 is forecast to reach a record 178.848 million bags. This represents a 2% increase from the previous year. Arabica production is expected to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags. Robusta production is projected to rise 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

The USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2025/26 production at 63 million bags. This is down 3.1% from the previous year. Vietnam’s output is expected to increase 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are forecast to fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags a year earlier.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did coffee prices fall sharply on Friday?September arabica fell 3.92% and robusta dropped 4.72% after ICE raised margin requirements twice in one week, reducing liquidity and forcing fund liquidation.

What is the current fund positioning in coffee?Funds increased their net-long robusta position to 44,195 contracts, the highest level in more than two years, making the market vulnerable to rapid selloffs.

How is Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest progressing?The harvest is 52% complete as of July 1, behind last year’s 60% and the five-year average of 55%, due to persistent rainfall delays.

What is the El Niño risk for coffee production?El Niño could delay rainfall in Brazil during the September-October flowering period, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop, with forecasts suggesting one of the strongest events in 75 years.

What does the supply outlook show?USDA projects a record 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop for 2026/27, while Vietnam’s exports rose 7.3% in early 2026, signaling ample global supply.

What is the global production forecast?USDA forecasts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, with robusta up 10.9% and arabica down 4.7%.

Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Prices

Posted on June 8, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 8, 2026

Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Prices

Key Takeaways:

July arabica futures fell 0.37% today; July robusta rose 0.60%.
Arabica hit a 19-month low last week, robusta a 7-week low.
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year on year.
Rabobank raised its global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags.
Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 5.75-month low of 419,504 bags.
El Niño risks and Strait of Hormuz closure provide price support.

Coffee prices traded mixed today as the ongoing harvest in Brazil continues to weigh on prices. July arabica futures fell 0.37%, while July robusta rose 0.60%. Weakness in the Brazilian real, which fell to a two-month low against the dollar, also pressured prices by encouraging export sales from Brazilian producers.

Last week, arabica fell to a 19-month low, and robusta slid to a seven-week low. The outlook for a record Brazil coffee crop remains the primary bearish factor, though some supportive elements exist.

Record Brazil Crop Forecast Weighs on Prices

Last Wednesday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags. That is a 14% increase year on year. Rabobank also raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags, up from 7.0 million bags previously.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest would increase by 12% to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group projected a record 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s 75.4 million bag forecast. StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags on March 12.

As a result, coffee prices have trended lower over the past six weeks amid an improved global supply outlook. StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025. That would be the largest surplus in six years.

Source	Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS	71.9
Coffee Trading Academy	71.4
Marex Group	75.9
Sucafina	75.4
StoneX	75.3

Strong Vietnam Exports Pressure Robusta; Inventories Fall

Last Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose 7.9% year on year to 922,000 metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

In contrast, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 5.75-month low of 419,504 bags last Friday. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 and are now slightly higher at 3,732 lots. The decline in inventories provides some support to prices.

El Niño Concerns and Strait Disruptions Support Prices

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial stated that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. That would damage the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year. There is a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”

Moreover, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

On the bearish side, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3% to 138.658 million bags. The USDA FAS bi-annual report on December 18 projected that 2025/26 world coffee production will increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to fall 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production rises 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

Type	2025/26 Forecast (million bags)	Year-on-Year Change
Arabica	95.52	-4.7%
Robusta	83.33	+10.9%
Global Total	178.85	+2.0%

Ending Stocks Continue to Decline

The USDA FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. This decline comes despite higher production expectations. It reflects strong global demand and persistent supply chain pressures.

However, prices may face additional pressure if large surplus forecasts materialize, especially with recovering production in Brazil and Vietnam. Investors remain watchful of weather developments in South America and geopolitical tensions in the Arabian Gulf region.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why are arabica prices falling despite lower exchange inventories?

A: Because of record Brazil crop forecasts and rising Vietnam exports, which increase global supply and weigh on prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports affect robusta prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase global robusta supply, putting downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil, harming tree flowering and reducing next year’s crop. This would support higher prices.

Q: How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect the coffee market?

A: The closure disrupts shipping routes and raises transport, insurance, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

Q: What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?

A: StoneX expects the surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years, driven by higher production in Brazil and Vietnam.

The coffee market remains torn between large surplus expectations on one hand and tight spot supplies, weather risks, and geopolitical tensions on the other. Investors continue to monitor exchange inventories and weather developments in Brazil closely.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: June 8, 2026

Arabica Coffee Rebounds Amid Tight Spot Market Supplies

Posted on June 5, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 5, 2026

Recent trends show that arabica coffee has experienced a rebound in the spot market, drawing attention from both traders and coffee enthusiasts. In this article, we will examine the key developments and analysis surrounding the arabica coffee rebound spot market and what it means for industry stakeholders. If you are following arabica coffee rebound spot market news, understanding arabica coffee rebound spot market conditions is important for those looking to make sense of price fluctuations and opportunities in the industry.

Arabica Coffee Rebounds Amid Tight Spot Market Supplies

Key Highlights:

July arabica coffee futures rose 0.34% after hitting a 19-month low.
ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.75-month low on Thursday.
A record Brazil 2026/27 crop forecast is weighing on prices.
Rabobank raised its global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags.
Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026.
El Niño could delay rains in Brazil and hurt next year’s crop.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global coffee supplies.

Arabica coffee futures rebounded from a 19-month low today. July arabica rose 0.34%, while July robusta fell 1.34%. The rebound was driven by short covering amid persistent tightness in the spot market. ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 3.75-month low on Thursday.

Therefore, the market remains mixed. Improved global supply expectations have pushed prices lower over the past six weeks. However, near-term supply tightness and geopolitical risks provide support.

Record Brazil Crop Forecast Weighs on Prices

On Wednesday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags. This represents a 14% increase year on year. In addition, Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags, up from 7.0 million bags previously.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest would increase by 12% to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina‘s forecast of 75.4 million bags. StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags on March 12.

As a result, coffee prices have trended lower over the past six weeks. StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025. This would be the largest surplus in six years.

Source	Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS	71.9
Coffee Trading Academy	71.4
Marex Group	75.9
Sucafina	75.4
StoneX	75.3

Strong Vietnam Exports Pressure Robusta; Inventories Fall

On Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose 7.9% year on year to 922,000 metric tons. Moreover, Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

In contrast, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.75-month low of 426,063 bags on Thursday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories dropped to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15. They are now slightly higher at 3,732 lots.

El Niño and Strait of Hormuz Threaten Supplies

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial stated that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. This would damage the 2026/27 crop.

Furthermore, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by increasing shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs. This raises costs for coffee importers and roasters.

Type	2025/26 Forecast (million bags)	Year-over-Year Change
Arabica	95.52	-4.7%
Robusta	83.33	+10.9%
Global Total	178.85	+2.0%

Ending Stocks Continue to Decline

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why did arabica coffee prices rebound despite record Brazil crop forecasts?

A: Due to short covering and tight spot market supplies. ICE monitored inventories fell to a 3.75-month low.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports affect robusta prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase global robusta supply, putting downward pressure on prices. July robusta futures fell 1.34% today.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil, harming tree flowering and reducing next year’s crop. This would support higher prices.

Q: How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect the coffee market?

A: The closure disrupts shipping routes and raises transport, insurance, and fuel costs. This increases costs for importers and roasters.

Q: What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?

A: StoneX expects the surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years, driven by higher production in Brazil and Vietnam.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: June 5, 2026

Coffee Prices Get Support from Brazilian Real Strength

Posted on May 5, 2026 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures traded sharply higher today. Arabica coffee rose to its highest level in one week. July arabica gained 3.43 percent. July robusta added 1.5 percent.

A major supporting factor is the strength of the Brazilian real. The currency surged to a two and a quarter year high against the US dollar. A stronger real discourages Brazilian coffee farmers from selling their crops overseas, which pushes prices upward.

Additional support comes from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This disruption has raised global shipping rates, insurance costs, fertilizer and fuel expenses. Coffee importers and roasters now face higher costs, tightening global supplies.

On the negative side, expectations of a large Brazilian coffee crop are limiting gains. The Coffee Trading Academy projected last Thursday that Brazil’s 2026/2027 harvest will increase 12 percent year over year to 71.4 million bags.

On March 19, Marex Group Plc forecast a record Brazilian crop of 75.9 million bags for the same season. That surpassed Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags, which represented a 15.5 percent annual increase. On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags. StoneX also projected the 2026 global coffee surplus would expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025. That would be the largest surplus in six years.

For robusta coffee, soaring exports from Vietnam are a bearish factor. Vietnam is the world’s largest robusta producer. On Saturday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to April 2026 rose 15.8 percent year over year to 810,000 metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5 percent annually to 1.58 million metric tons. In addition, Vietnam’s 2025/2026 coffee production is projected to climb 6 percent year over year to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons, or 29.4 million bags.

Tightness in arabica supplies is supporting prices. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a two and a quarter month low of 494,508 bags on April 21.

Smaller exports from Brazil also help support prices. On April 14, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s March green coffee exports fell 10 percent year over year to 2.65 million bags. On April 7, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that March coffee exports fell 31 percent annually to 151,000 metric tons.

Robusta coffee also sees bullish signs from tighter supplies. ICE robusta inventories fell to a sixteen and a quarter month low of 3,755 lots last Tuesday.

As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year, which runs October through September, fell 0.3 percent year over year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service said in its biannual report on December 18 that world coffee production in 2025/2026 would increase 2.0 percent annually to a record 178.848 million bags. That includes a 4.7 percent decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a 10.9 percent increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags. The USDA forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/2026 coffee production would decline 3.1 percent to 63 million bags. Vietnam’s coffee output would rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. The USDA also forecasts that 2025/2026 ending stocks will fall 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/2025.

Coffee Prices Find Support Amid Indonesian Flooding

Posted on December 23, 2025 by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa WORLD

Global coffee prices showed mixed movement on Tuesday, with market sentiment shaped by supply concerns in Southeast Asia and updated production forecasts from major producing countries.

Arabica coffee futures for March delivery edged lower, while robusta contracts for January moved higher. The divergence reflects differing supply dynamics for the two varieties.

Prices have received support from extensive flooding in Indonesia, a key coffee producer. Recent reports indicate that floodwaters have affected roughly one-third of arabica coffee farms in northern Sumatra. Robusta-growing areas, however, appear to have suffered less damage, limiting the overall impact on Indonesia’s export capacity.

Weather developments in Brazil also influenced the market. According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais — the country’s largest arabica-producing region — recorded 38.3 millimeters of rainfall during the week ending December 19. This amount represents approximately 76% of the historical weekly average, easing concerns about drought stress in key growing zones.

Despite these supportive factors, expectations of ample global supply continue to weigh on prices. Brazil’s agricultural forecasting agency revised its 2025 coffee production estimate upward in early December, projecting total output at 56.54 million bags, compared with a previous estimate of 55.20 million bags.

Robusta prices remain under pressure due to strong export flows from Vietnam. Official statistics showed that Vietnam’s coffee exports surged sharply in November, with shipments rising significantly compared to the same month last year. Cumulative exports for the January–November period also posted strong year-on-year growth.

Arabica prices, meanwhile, found some support from lower Brazilian export volumes. Data from Brazil’s coffee exporters association indicated a notable decline in green coffee exports in November compared with the same period last year.

Inventory levels on ICE exchanges have also played a role in recent price movements. Certified arabica stocks fell to their lowest level in more than a year in late November before rebounding in December. Robusta inventories followed a similar pattern, declining to multi-month lows earlier in the month and then partially recovering.

Trade flows to the United States added another layer of complexity. Purchases of Brazilian coffee by U.S. buyers dropped sharply during the period when higher tariffs were in place earlier in the year. Although those tariffs have since been reduced, U.S. inventories remain tight following the earlier slowdown in imports.

Looking ahead, rising production in Vietnam is seen as a bearish factor. Forecasts for the 2025/26 season suggest higher output, with industry groups indicating that favorable weather conditions could push production well above last year’s levels. Vietnam remains the world’s leading producer of robusta coffee.

At the global level, some indicators point to tighter supply. The International Coffee Organization recently reported a slight decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year.

However, longer-term projections suggest overall production growth. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects global coffee output in the 2025/26 season to reach a record level, driven by increased robusta production, even as arabica output is forecast to decline. Ending stocks are projected to fall compared with the previous season, reflecting ongoing demand and inventory adjustments.

Brazil Weather and U.S. Tariffs Drive Coffee Prices to Multi-Month Highs

Posted on August 19, 2025December 6, 2025 by Qahwa World

Dubai, August 19, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices surged on Tuesday, with arabica futures climbing to a 2.25-month high and robusta reaching a two-month high, supported by dry conditions in Brazil’s key growing regions and tightening U.S. supplies following new tariffs on Brazilian coffee.

September arabica coffee (KCU25) rose 1.85% (+6.35¢/lb), while September ICE robusta (RMU25) gained 4.04% (+$168). The rise reflects mounting concern over Brazil’s weather, particularly in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-producing state, where Somar Meteorologia reported no rainfall during the week ending August 16.

Market support is also coming from the United States, where buyers are avoiding new contracts for Brazilian coffee due to a 50% tariff imposed on imports. Brazil typically supplies about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee, making the tariff impact significant for roasters and traders.

Brazil’s July export figures further underscored supply concerns. According to the Trade Ministry, unroasted coffee exports fell 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons. Exporter group Cecafé reported that green coffee shipments dropped 28% y/y to 2.4 million bags, while total coffee exports fell to 2.7 million bags. From January to July, Brazil’s overall exports declined 21% to 22.2 million bags.

Certified exchange inventories remain tight. ICE arabica stocks fell to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags on August 14 before recovering slightly to 733,105 bags this week. ICE robusta stocks dropped to a three-week low of 6,749 lots, down from late-July’s two-year high of 7,029 lots.

On the supply side, Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest is advancing. Research firm Safras & Mercado estimates the crop was 94% complete as of August 6, with robusta nearly finished (99%) and arabica at 91%. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, reported its members had completed 80.4% of their harvest by August 8.

Beyond Brazil, Vietnam’s coffee industry continues to influence robusta prices. Drought reduced 2023/24 production by 20% y/y to 1.47 million metric tons, the lowest in four years, while 2024 exports fell 17.1% to 1.35 million metric tons. However, recovery signs emerged with January–July 2025 exports up 6.9% y/y to 1.05 million metric tons.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports in June rose 7.3% y/y to 11.69 million bags, though October–June totals slipped 0.2% to 104.14 million bags.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects 2025/26 world coffee production at a record 178.7 million bags, up 2.5% year-on-year. Arabica output is expected to fall 1.7% to 97 million bags, while robusta is forecast to rise 7.9% to nearly 82 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to grow 4.9% to 22.8 million bags.

However, trader Volcafe sees a very different balance: a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025/26, the fifth consecutive year of shortages and larger than the 5.5 million bag deficit recorded in 2024/25. This highlights continued market tightness despite record overall supply projections.

Coffee Prices Rise on Light Frost in Brazil and Sharp Decline in Robusta Exports

Posted on August 13, 2025December 6, 2025 by Qahwa World

Dubai, 13 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee futures gained on Wednesday, supported by reports of light frost in Brazil’s Cerrado Mineiro region and a significant drop in the country’s robusta exports.

September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed up +4.45 cents (+1.41%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) surged +206 points (+5.53%) to reach a two-month high.

Weather Impact

Light frost earlier this week in Cerrado Mineiro, one of Brazil’s key arabica-producing areas, prompted concerns in the market, although initial assessments suggest damage is minimal. Above-average rainfall in Minas Gerais last week (4.8 mm, or 109% of the historical average) eased dryness concerns, potentially limiting upward price pressure.

Exports Driving the Rally

According to exporter group Cecafe, Brazil’s July green coffee exports fell -28% year-on-year to 2.4 million bags. Arabica exports declined -21%, while robusta exports plunged -49%. Total July coffee exports dropped -28% to 2.7 million bags, with January–July shipments down -21% to 22.2 million bags.

The sharp decline in robusta exports, combined with short-covering after previous market losses, was a major factor behind robusta’s price surge. Brazil’s July unroasted coffee exports also fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 metric tons.

Falling Inventories

ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 736,411 bags on Wednesday. Robusta inventories dropped to a two-week low of 6,928 lots, slightly below the one-year high recorded at the end of July.

Harvest Progress

Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 94% complete as of August 6, ahead of last year’s 92% at the same time. Robusta harvest is 99% finished, while arabica is 91% complete. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and exporter, said its members had harvested 80.4% of their crop by August 8.

Trade Policy Concerns

Market attention is also on U.S. trade policy, as President Trump has yet to exempt coffee from a proposed 50% tariff on Brazilian exports, a move that could impact sales to the U.S. and increase domestic inventories in Brazil.

Global Supply Picture

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported global coffee exports in June rose +7.3% y/y to 11.69 million bags, though cumulative October–June exports slipped -0.2% to 104.14 million bags.

The USDA’s June forecast projects global 2025/26 coffee production will rise +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with arabica output down -1.7% to 97.02 million bags and robusta production up +7.9% to 81.66 million bags. Ending stocks are expected to increase +4.9% to 22.82 million bags.

Vietnam’s Role in Robusta Supply

Vietnam’s 2023/24 coffee production fell -20% y/y to 1.472 million metric tons due to drought—the smallest crop in four years. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has lowered its 2024/25 production forecast to 26.5 million bags, down from December’s estimate of 28 million bags. However, Vietnam’s Jan–July 2025 exports rose +6.9% y/y to 1.05 million metric tons.

Deficit Outlook

Despite higher overall global production, Volcafe forecasts a -8.5 million bag global arabica deficit in 2025/26—wider than the -5.5 million bag shortfall in 2024/25—marking the fifth consecutive year of deficits.