Tag: Central America coffee

Honduran coffee production surges to 5.53 million bags

Posted on by Qahwa World
IHCAFE forecasts continued growth in 2026/27 supported by plant nutrition, area expansion, and new plantations; exports rise 7.5% but differentiated coffee share drops sharply in early data.
TEGUCIGALPA — Qahwa World

Honduras will produce 5.53 million 60 kilogram bags of coffee in the 2025/26 marketing year, a 6.3 percent increase from the previous cycle, according to the annual coffee report published by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service in Tegucigalpa. Notably, the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 indicates production is then forecast to jump another 9 percent to 6.03 million bags in 2026/27, returning the country to output levels last seen in 2021/22.

The projected growth is driven by improved plant nutrition, favorable biennial production cycles, expansion of productive areas, enhanced pruning and crop management practices, and the maturation of newly established coffee plantations. Planted area is expected to grow by about 3 percent, or 10,000 hectares, in 2025/26, largely due to the introduction of the rust resistant Parainema variety. Furthermore, forecasts for Honduras coffee production in 2026 are shaped by these agronomic improvements and varietal shifts.

Honduras, one of Central America’s leading coffee producers and a top global exporter of Arabica, concentrates its crop in six key regions: Copan, Montecillos, Opalaca, Comayagua, El Paraiso, and Agalta. Elevations range between 1,000 and 1,600 meters above sea level, where Bourbon, Catuaí, Caturra, and Typica thrive. Looking ahead, the production forecast for Honduras coffee in 2026 continues to inform regional agricultural strategies.

Production outlook and leaf rust pressure

As of March 2026, coffee leaf rust incidence increased from 7.57 percent to 8.44 percent nationally, triggering a Level 4 yellow alert. The rise reflects higher lesion counts and leaf damage, supported by favorable environmental conditions and the unrestricted movement of harvest workers. Despite localized pressures, overall national rust levels remain relatively contained due to dry season conditions in major producing regions. This has important implications for the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026, since disease pressure can impact yields.

Table 1: Honduras coffee production & export forecasts (million 60 kg bags)
Marketing year Production Exports Ending stocks
MY 2023/24 (actual) 5.00 4.77 0.081
MY 2024/25 (revised) 5.20 4.96 0.178
MY 2025/26 (forecast) 5.53 5.03 0.435
MY 2026/27 (projection) 6.03 5.50 0.707
Table 2: Coffee leaf rust incidence by selected departments (March 2026)
Department Incidence (%)
Comayagua 14.08%
Cortes 12.49%
Santa Bárbara 11.17%
Yoro 10.08%
El Paraíso 9.81%
Intibucá 9.27%
Copán 6.76%

Earlier survey data from April 2025 indicated that 16.67 percent of sampled farms had medium rust incidence (5 to 10 percent), 7.80 percent had high incidence (10 to 15 percent), and 21.63 percent recorded very high incidence above 15 percent. Approximately 5 percent of the current crop remained unharvested as of March 2026, while 44 percent was still in the supply chain awaiting export or processing. This context is significant for anyone examining the country’s 2026 coffee production forecast in Honduras.

Prices, Brazil and market volatility

As of late March 2026, coffee reference prices have shown downward pressure, driven by improved global supply expectations and forecasts of a large Brazilian harvest. While prices have eased from early 2026 highs, they remain volatile. Retail prices have not yet adjusted significantly, reflecting typical lags due to contracts and inventories. In summary, the Honduras coffee production outlook for 2026 is closely tied to international price volatility and market forces.

Weather risks in Brazil, including the potential for early frosts in key producing regions, may place upward pressure on global prices in 2026. However, continued market volatility and rising production costs — including higher diesel prices and fertilizer supply uncertainty linked to the Persian Gulf conflict — may constrain producer margins. Price developments will depend on frost events in Brazil between May and July 2026, crop performance in Vietnam and Colombia, and currency movements, especially the BRL USD exchange rate. Meanwhile, these variables are monitored by analysts as they project the 2026 Honduras coffee production forecast.

Exports grow 7.5%, average price eases

Honduran coffee exports are projected to reach 5.03 million bags in 2025/26, a 7.47 percent increase from the revised 4.96 million bags in 2024/25. For 2026/27, exports are forecast to rise another 9 percent to 5.50 million bags. As of April 2026, Honduras had already exported 3.17 million bags, a 38 percent increase from 2.30 million bags during the same period in 2024/25. The average export price was $439.47 per 60 kg bag, a 2.70 percent decrease from $451.70, but total export value jumped 33 percent to $1.39 billion. These impressive results play a pivotal role in shaping the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 and future export trends.

Sales contracts for 2025/26 totaled 4.10 million bags, up 27 percent year on year. Honduras has expanded market access, including under its free trade agreement with South Korea, now the eleventh largest export market for coffee. Globally, Honduras ranks as the eighth largest coffee exporter, the third largest in the Americas, and the largest in Central America. Finally, the Honduras coffee production forecast 2026 continues to be an important reference for market participants and policy decisions.

Table 3: Top destinations for Honduran green coffee exports (2025, thousand 60 kg bags)
Country Volume (1,000 bags)
United States 1,476
Germany 983
Belgium 551
Italy 231
Japan 186
Canada 229
Sweden 149
United Kingdom 147

Domestic consumption and rising imports

Coffee consumption in Honduras is projected to increase 9 percent in 2026/27, supported by modest GDP growth of 3.8 to 4 percent. Per capita apparent consumption is estimated at 4 to 5 kilograms per year. The growing presence of coffee bars in shopping malls, gas stations, and supermarkets, along with a young population consuming diverse coffee drinks, drives demand. Keurig coffee pods and machines are a new trend sold at supermarket chains. It is clear that changing consumption patterns also play into the nation’s coffee production forecast 2026 for Honduras.

Despite being a major producer, Honduras imports coffee to meet domestic demand for soluble coffee and lower cost blends. Total imports are projected to reach 160,000 bags in 2026/27, up 16.8 percent from 137,000 bags in 2025/26. In 2024/25, green coffee bean imports totaled 96,216 bags, primarily from Nicaragua (91,731 bags). Soluble coffee imports from October 2024 through February 2025 reached 30,992 bags, up from 27,516 bags the previous year. Key suppliers included Mexico, the United States, Colombia, Guatemala, India, Malaysia, and Costa Rica. Market dynamics that affect imports are increasingly relevant for the Honduras coffee production forecast looking ahead to 2026.

Differentiated coffee: a sharp shift in early 2025/26

During the 2024/25 harvest, 2.6 million 60 kg bags of differentiated coffee (certified and specialty) were sold, accounting for 55 percent of total exports. The five leading certifications were UTZ, Organic, Fair Trade/Organic, 4C, and Rainforest Alliance. However, preliminary data for 2025/26 shows a significant decline: differentiated coffee fell to 37 percent of total volume, or 1.24 million bags exported to date. This 15 percentage point drop may reflect timing of shipments, production challenges, or evolving market dynamics. Final figures will determine if this is a temporary fluctuation or a sustained trend. The results for differentiated segments will ultimately affect 2026 Honduras coffee production forecast calculations.

Table 4: Differentiated coffee production (thousand 60 kg bags, harvest seasons)
Harvest season Differentiated coffee Total harvest % participation
2019/20 3,020 5,506 55%
2020/21 3,220 5,873 55%
2021/22 2,523 4,701 54%
2022/23 3,087 5,342 58%
2023/24 2,610 4,687 56%
2024/25 2,436 4,804 52%
2025/26* 1,242 3,325 37%
* preliminary figures to April 2026. Source: IHCAFE

Specialty coffee in Honduras is typically grown above 3,000 feet. Currently, specialty coffees are produced under 22 programs including UTZ, 4C, Rainforest Alliance, Organic, Bird Friendly, Starbucks C.A.F.E. Practices, and Cup of Excellence. The overall quality of exported coffee in 2025/26 was classified as 49 percent Strictly High Grown (SHG), 43 percent High Grade (HG), and 9 percent Standard Grade (STD). With specialty coffee trends evolving, analysts will adjust the Honduras coffee production and exports forecast for 2026 accordingly.

Table 5: Quality exports in MY 2025/26 (60 kg bags, to date)
Quality grade Volume (bags) Average price (USD) Share of volume
SHG (Strictly High Grown) 1,618,979 $440.19 49%
HG (High Grade) 1,420,051 $448.27 43%
SL (Screen size >18) 286,479 $361.44 9%

Small producers and policy support

Many small and medium coffee producers face financial constraints, with limited access to credit. According to IHCAFE data for 2024/25, 86,895 small farmers harvested 179,271 hectares and produced 2.63 million bags. Medium producers (6,359 farmers) produced 1.66 million bags, and 374 large farmers produced 515,533 bags. Their contributions are notable in the broader context of the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026.

Table 6: Producers by size, area harvested and production (2024/25)
Farmer type Farmers registered Area harvested (Ha) Production (60 kg bags)
Small 86,895 179,271 2,627,164
Medium 6,359 85,040 1,661,733
Large 374 21,246 515,533

The government has implemented several measures to support the sector, including a sales tax exemption on coffee (Decree 352 2022) that provides fiscal relief of approximately $183 million. IHCAFE’s “Renew without stopping Production” program supports 33,000 producers covering 250,000 blocks. A climate change policy aims to foster resilience through six five year phases from 2022 to 2050. The National Coffee Council, the highest regulatory body, guides policy on production, climate change, labor, and gender inclusion. The sector adopted a Gender Inclusion Policy in 2021. Policy initiatives such as these directly impact Honduras coffee production forecasts for 2026 and beyond.

As of March 2026, IHCAFE continues providing technical support to help growers meet the European Union Deforestation Regulation, aiming to reduce deforestation tied to agricultural production and foster environmentally responsible supply chains. Overall, actions to comply with international standards also influence the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 as the industry adapts to global changes.

Methodological note: All figures are based on the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report “Coffee Annual – Tegucigalpa – Honduras – HO2026-0002” published April 29, 2026. Marketing years (MY) run from October to September. Differentiated coffee includes certified and specialty coffees. No data from outside the report has been used. Projections for MY 2026/27 are preliminary and subject to revision.

 

Coffee Farmers in Central America Struggle to Survive Falling Prices

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

The Guardian published a lengthy report titled “‘Everyone feels like they are being scammed’: can Central America’s small coffee growers survive as global prices fall?”, which discussed the growing pressures facing coffee farmers in parts of Central America, particularly in El Salvador and Honduras. The report explores how climate instability, rising production costs, labour shortages and volatile global markets are reshaping coffee farming across the region.

According to the report, many small producers who have depended on coffee cultivation for generations are now confronting increasingly unpredictable conditions. Weather patterns that once followed a familiar seasonal rhythm have become less reliable, making it difficult for farmers to plan their harvest cycles and manage their farms effectively.

The report begins on a hillside in western El Salvador, where coffee farmer Oscar Leiva observes rainfall arriving in December, a month that traditionally marked the beginning of the dry season. During the latest harvest cycle, flowering occurred early and then stalled, followed by a period of intense heat. As a result, the remaining crop is uneven in quality and more expensive to produce than previous harvests.

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For Leiva’s family, coffee is not simply a crop but a long-standing way of life. His mother, Esperanza Marinero, remembers when the rainy season arrived on time and harvests could be planned months ahead. Today, that certainty has disappeared. Farmers must make decisions about pruning, fertilising and hiring workers without reliable seasonal patterns, increasing the financial risks they face.

Coffee has historically played a major role in El Salvador’s economy. In the mid-1970s the country ranked among the world’s leading coffee producers, with harvests exceeding five million quintales, a unit equal to about 46 kilograms. Today, national production struggles to reach one million quintales.

The report notes that this decline reflects more than market cycles. Decades of land restructuring, climate shocks and rural migration have weakened the coffee sector and altered the agricultural landscape. Increasing climate volatility has disrupted flowering cycles, reduced yields and affected the quality of coffee, particularly for small farmers who lack financial reserves to absorb repeated losses.

Read also: Shock in the Coffee Market: Colombia’s Production Drops 36%

Cecibel Romero, a researcher focusing on coffee production, explained that the sector is experiencing overlapping challenges that extend beyond climate change alone. Rising temperatures, irregular rainfall and plant diseases such as coffee rust have exposed long-standing vulnerabilities in traditional production systems.

Romero noted that past production models often focused on maximising yields and implementing short-term solutions rather than building long-term resilience. After severe rust outbreaks in the early 2010s, many producers replanted their farms with varieties believed to be resistant. However, some of these varieties produced lower-quality beans or did not maintain their resistance over time.

As coffee’s economic importance declined in El Salvador, public support systems for the sector were also reduced. Agricultural services weakened, renovation programmes became fragmented and access to affordable credit narrowed. As a result, many producers have been left to cope with climate risks, disease outbreaks and market volatility largely on their own.

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Similar pressures are being felt in Honduras, the largest coffee producer in Central America. Although overall production remains higher than in El Salvador, farmers there are also dealing with rising costs and climate-related challenges.

Juan Luis Hernández, a forest engineer who has worked on environmental projects connected to the Honduran Coffee Institute, said adapting to changing conditions requires investment, time and labour. Measures such as managing shade trees, restoring soil health, protecting water sources and monitoring plant diseases all require resources that are not equally available to all farmers.

In the Honduran region of Copán, farmer Gerardo Vásquez manages an eight-hectare family farm while also advising other growers. Trained through the Honduran Coffee Institute, he works on soil analysis, selecting coffee varieties and developing agroforestry systems.

Even with this technical background, Vásquez says the economic reality of coffee farming remains difficult. Establishing one manzana of coffee — roughly 0.7 hectares — now costs about 200,000 lempiras over a period of three years.

Read also: Bridging the Gap: An Exclusive Dialogue with Vanusia Nogueira on the Global Coffee Crisis and the Path to 2026

Production costs have risen significantly in recent years. Fertiliser prices increased sharply after the pandemic, while labour shortages have pushed wages for harvest workers higher. When harvesting, processing and transport are included, farmers may spend more than 3,000 lempiras to produce a single quintal of parchment coffee.

Weather conditions can further complicate the process. Continuous rainfall makes drying coffee difficult, forcing some farmers to sell freshly picked cherries directly from the field at lower prices. Others depend on intermediaries who provide advance payments, which can limit farmers’ ability to negotiate prices later.

Climate change is also affecting where coffee can be grown successfully. Farms located below 1,000 metres above sea level are becoming more vulnerable to heat stress, pests and diseases. As a result, coffee cultivation has gradually moved to higher elevations over time.

However, relocating production to higher ground is not feasible for many smallholders, who may not have access to suitable land or the financial means to make such changes.

At Café San Rafael in Honduras, co-owner Carlos Guerra explained that the flowering cycle of coffee plants has become increasingly irregular. What once occurred within a predictable timeframe now happens in stages, extending the harvest period and raising labour costs.

Labour itself has become one of the most pressing challenges for producers. Coffee harvesting requires careful selection of ripe cherries, a process that cannot easily be mechanised. Younger workers are increasingly leaving rural areas, making it harder for farms to recruit enough labour during harvest season.

Farmers are experimenting with various adaptation strategies, including planting additional shade trees and improving soil management practices. While these measures can help protect coffee plants from heat stress, they may also reduce yields, creating a difficult balance between environmental resilience and economic viability.

Some farms attempt to offset these challenges by focusing on higher-value markets. At Café San Rafael, careful management of fermentation and drying processes helps maintain coffee quality even when harvest conditions are uneven. Operating a roastery also allows the business to manage fluctuations in supply.

However, many small farmers do not have access to such opportunities. Entering specialty coffee markets often requires certification, processing infrastructure and export connections that remain beyond the reach of numerous producers.

Emeric Seguin, director of sourcing and sustainability at a specialty coffee company working with producers in Central America, told the newspaper that mistrust is widespread within the supply chain. Farmers often feel undervalued, while buyers worry about inconsistent supply, leaving cooperatives caught between both sides.

Several initiatives are attempting to promote more resilient farming practices. In El Salvador, a coffee production school known as Renacer encourages ecological approaches that focus on soil health, shade restoration and long-term stability rather than maximising short-term yields.

Agronomist Sigfredo Corado explained that the goal is to reduce extreme fluctuations in harvests. While farms may not achieve exceptionally high yields in strong years, they are also less likely to experience severe drops in production.

Despite these efforts, the report notes that global market conditions could add further pressure. Rabobank has predicted that increasing coffee surpluses in the coming seasons could push international prices lower, potentially making coffee production less viable for smallholders.

As profitability declines, some land previously used for shaded coffee is being converted to other crops or sold for development, gradually altering landscapes that have long been associated with coffee cultivation.

For farmers such as Oscar Leiva, planning for the next season remains unavoidable despite the uncertainty. Each harvest now requires decisions to be made without the reliable patterns that once guided coffee farming.

Across Central America, producers continue searching for ways to adapt to changing environmental and economic realities, while the long-term sustainability of smallholder coffee farming remains an open question.

Central America Crop Progression Update 2025/26

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Sucafina has published its Central America Crop Progression Update 2025/26, outlining steady progress and a positive outlook for the current coffee cycle across Central America and Mexico. According to Oscar Fernando Hurtado Ramirez, Global Head of Production Research at Sucafina, favorable weather, balanced harvest flows, and strong reinvestment at farm level are supporting both volume and quality this season.

  • Harvest progress and pace

Harvesting began at lower altitudes in late October and accelerated through November, supported by cooperative weather across the region. This season has been characterized by a more even picking flow, reducing pressure on mills and contributing to stronger quality outcomes. Peak harvest activity is taking place in January, while higher-altitude areas are now ramping up and are expected to remain active over the coming months. Regionally, the main harvest is projected to wind down between late March and early April.

By late January, approximately 50% of the harvest is complete, with progress expected to reach 65% to 70% by the end of the month. Nicaragua is currently the most advanced origin, while El Salvador and Costa Rica are moving more slowly and are expected to pick up pace as higher-elevation farms enter peak production.

  • Volume and quality outlook

Total coffee production across Central America is expected to finish near 18 million bags, placing regional output about 4.5% above the 2024/25 season. Strong international prices during the previous cycle generated record revenues in several producing countries, enabling reinvestment in tree renovation, fertilization, and farm management.

These investments are now translating into healthier plants and improved crop conditions for the 2025/26 season. With a steadier picking schedule and more balanced deliveries, coffee processing is progressing smoothly and on schedule, supporting both physical preparation and cup quality.

  • Market context

Two developments influenced the regional coffee market toward the end of 2025. Mexico briefly benefited from zero U.S. trade tariffs during the fourth quarter, which supported local buying activity and imports. That policy was removed in November, returning trade to standard commercial conditions.

Separately, implementation of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) was delayed by an additional year. The extension has eased immediate pressure on farmers and exporters and provides more time to strengthen traceability systems ahead of full enforcement, now scheduled for December 31, 2026.

  • Chaak: creating opportunity through coffee in Guatemala

Sucafina is also preparing to ship Chaak, a new Original coffee from Guatemala sourced from Chiquimula, Santa Rosa, and Jalapa. The blend brings together coffees from 618 smallholder farmers, including 462 producers from eastern Guatemala and 156 from western regions. Shipments are expected between March and May.

Chaak is fully traceable and IMPACT verified, linking coffee quality with social and environmental outcomes through Sucafina’s Responsible Sourcing Program. Participating farmers use limited chemical inputs, adhere to deforestation-free practices, and farm using methods that support biodiversity.

Each purchase of Chaak supports Opportunity through Pre-School Education, an initiative focused on improving early learning environments and teacher support in coffee-growing communities. The project forms part of Sucafina’s Beyond Flagship efforts in Guatemala.

Buyers planning to source additional Central American or Mexican coffees are encouraged to coordinate with their contacts to align on timelines, shipping schedules, and quality specifications.