Tag: Strait of Hormuz

Drier Weather in Brazil Aids Coffee Harvest and Weighs on Prices

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 22, 2026

Drier Weather in Brazil Aids Coffee Harvest and Weighs on Prices

Key Takeaways:

  • Arabica prices fell 0.73% and robusta fell 1.76% to a one-week low, as drier weather in Brazil is expected to allow the harvest to resume.
  • The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eases supply disruptions, lowering shipping, insurance, and fuel costs.
  • ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-month low of 394,267 bags.
  • El Niño concerns support prices, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year.
  • USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y).
  • Vietnam’s exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, with production expected at 29.4 million bags (+6%).
  • Global production in 2025/26 is projected at 178.85 million bags (+2.0%), with ending stocks falling 5.4%.

Coffee prices came under pressure today, with robusta falling sharply to a one-week low. The decline came as expectations of drier weather in Brazil raised hopes that the country’s coffee harvest can resume. September arabica futures fell 0.73%, while July robusta futures dropped 1.76%.

Prices had rallied to five-week highs last Thursday amid persistent rain in Brazil, which delayed the harvest. However, improving weather conditions are now reversing that trend, as harvesting activities are expected to accelerate in key coffee regions.

Drier Weather Resumes Harvest and Pressures Prices

Meteorological agencies forecast drier weather across Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions in the coming days, allowing farmers to resume harvesting activities that had been halted by heavy rains. This development is expected to increase supply in global markets, especially with expectations of a bumper harvest this year. The improved weather conditions have led to a decline in prices, as traders took advantage of the favorable weather to accelerate profit-taking.

Strait of Hormuz Reopening Eases Supply Disruptions

Authorities announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, easing supply disruptions that have affected the market in recent months. The reopening is expected to lower shipping rates, insurance premiums, fuel costs, and fertilizer prices, thereby reducing overall costs for importers and roasters. This development represents an additional bearish factor, as lower logistics costs remove some of the support that had been underpinning prices during the closure.

Indicator Value Significance
September Arabica Futures -0.73% Decline on improving weather
July Robusta Futures -1.76% One-week low
ICE Arabica Stocks 394,267 bags 27-month low
ICE Robusta Stocks 4,032 lots 2.25-month high
Strait of Hormuz Reopened Easing supply disruptions

Exchange Inventories at Multi-Year Lows

ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to 394,267 bags last Thursday, the lowest level in 27 months. This decline in inventories supports prices and reflects tight physical supplies. In contrast, ICE robusta inventories jumped from a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 to 4,032 lots, the highest level in 2.25 months.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices and Threaten Next Year’s Crop

Concerns over the impact of an El Niño weather pattern on Brazil’s next coffee crop continue to support prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño could delay the arrival of seasonal rains during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September and October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could be the strongest on record. The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed on June 10 that El Niño conditions have formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Large Crops Continue to Weigh on the Market

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported on June 11 that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May to 2.73 million bags.

Vietnam Expands Exports and Production, Adding Pressure

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continues to increase exports, adding further pressure on prices. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office on June 2, coffee exports during the first five months of 2026 reached 922,000 metric tons, up 7.9% from the same period a year earlier. Full-year exports in 2025 rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.

Global Production Outlook and Inventories Point to a Delicate Balance

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports during the current marketing year (October–September) totaled 138.66 million bags, slightly down 0.3% from the previous year. Meanwhile, the USDA’s FAS projects global coffee production in 2025/26 to reach a record 178.85 million bags, up 2% year-on-year. The forecast includes arabica production of 95.52 million bags (-4.7%) and robusta production of 83.33 million bags (+10.9%). The USDA estimates Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop at 63 million bags, down 3.1% from the previous year, while Vietnam’s production is expected to rise 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are forecast to decline by 5.4% to 20.15 million bags in 2025/26, compared with 21.31 million bags in 2024/25.

Indicator 2025/26 Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production 178.85 million bags +2.0%
Arabica Production 95.52 million bags -4.7%
Robusta Production 83.33 million bags +10.9%
Ending Stocks 20.15 million bags -5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why did coffee prices decline today?

A: Due to expectations of drier weather in Brazil allowing the harvest to resume, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz easing supply disruptions.

Q: How does the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz affect coffee prices?

A: It is expected to lower shipping, insurance, and fuel costs, reducing costs for importers and roasters and putting downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 394,267 bags (a 27-month low), while robusta stocks rose to 4,032 lots (a 2.25-month high).

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

The coffee market remains caught between supportive factors (El Niño concerns, falling inventories) and bearish factors (improving weather in Brazil, Strait of Hormuz reopening, record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production). Improving weather conditions and the reopening of the strait add additional downward pressure, though El Niño concerns and declining inventories still provide some support. All eyes remain on weather developments in Brazil and inventory trends to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 22, 2026

Coffee Prices Jump as Persistent Rain in Brazil Delays the Coffee Harvest

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Coffee World |
Date: June 12, 2026

Coffee Prices Jump as Persistent Rain in Brazil Delays the Coffee Harvest

Key Takeaways:

  • July arabica rose 2.17% and July robusta rose 3.19% to one‑week highs.
  • Moderate to heavy rain is forecast across Brazil’s coffee regions this week and may extend into next week.
  • ICE arabica inventories fell to a 6.5‑month low of 402,709 bags.
  • Concerns over a “Super El Niño” that could damage Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop are supporting prices.
  • The USDA FAS forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% y/y.
  • Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in January‑May 2026, adding bearish pressure.
  • The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt supplies and support prices.

Coffee prices jumped to one‑week highs today amid concerns that persistent rain in Brazil will delay the coffee harvest. July arabica futures rose 2.17%, while July robusta futures gained 3.19%. Forecaster Vaisala said moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast across Brazil’s coffee‑growing regions this week, and the showers could extend into next week.

The rally comes after arabica hit a 19‑month low on Tuesday, driven by expectations of a bumper Brazilian crop. However, the current rains have renewed worries about harvest delays and quality.

Persistent Rain Threatens to Delay Brazil’s Harvest

According to Vaisala, moderate to heavy rain is expected across Brazil’s coffee regions this week, with the potential to continue into next week. This could disrupt harvesting activities that have already begun and affect bean quality. Delayed harvests typically lead to a higher proportion of defective beans and lower overall quality, reducing the supply of high‑grade coffee in the market. As a result, futures prices rose sharply, with short covering amplifying the move.

Exchange Inventories Fall to Multi‑Month Lows

ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to 402,709 bags on Wednesday, a 6.5‑month low. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories remained near a two‑year low at 3,713 lots. The decline in inventories supports prices by signaling tight near‑term supplies.

“Super El Niño” Threatens Brazil’s 2026/27 Crop

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial said El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, the period when tree flowering normally occurs, damaging the 2026/27 crop. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could be the strongest on record. On Wednesday, the Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed that an El Niño pattern has formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Source Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS 71.9 Coffee Trading Academy 71.4 Marex Group 75.9 Sucafina 75.4 StoneX 75.3

Vietnam Exports and Surplus Forecasts Cap Gains

On the other hand, large surplus expectations still loom. Last Wednesday, the USDA FAS forecast a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% y/y. Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags from 7.0 million bags previously. Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, and its 2025/26 production is projected to climb 6% to 29.4 million bags. These factors limit the upside for prices in the longer term.

Type 2025/26 Forecast (million bags) Year-on-Year Change
Arabica 95.52 -4.7%
Robusta 83.33 +10.9%
Global Total 178.85 +2.0%

Strait of Hormuz Closure Supports Prices

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global coffee supplies, supporting prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters. This geopolitical factor adds another layer of uncertainty to the market.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Moves

Q: Why did coffee prices jump today?

A: Because of forecasts for heavy rain in Brazil’s coffee regions, which could delay the harvest and affect quality.

Q: How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil and damage tree flowering, reducing next year’s crop and supporting higher prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Higher Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which tends to cap price gains in the medium term.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica inventories fell to 402,709 bags, a 6.5‑month low; robusta inventories near two‑year lows.

Q: Will prices continue to rise?

A: It depends on weather developments in Brazil, the severity of any El Niño impact, and geopolitical tensions.

The coffee market faces heightened uncertainty. While large surplus expectations remain in the background, current rains, El Niño risks, and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are reshaping the balance. Investors are closely watching weather developments in Brazil and inventory trends.

Prepared and edited by: Coffee World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 12, 2026

Japan Meteorological Agency Confirms El Niño, Lifting Coffee Prices

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 11, 2026

Japan Meteorological Agency Confirms El Niño, Lifting Coffee Prices

Key Takeaways:

  • July arabica closed up 1.64% and July robusta up 1.85% after Japan confirmed El Niño formation.
  • El Niño could bring months of floods, droughts, and temperature swings, threatening coffee production in Asia and South America.
  • Arabica had fallen to a 19-month low on Tuesday amid forecasts of a bumper Brazil crop.
  • USDA FAS forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year on year.
  • Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in January-May 2026, pressuring robusta.
  • ICE arabica inventories fell to a 6.5-month low of 402,709 bags on Wednesday.
  • NOAA estimates a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” that could be the strongest on record.

Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Wednesday as short covering emerged after the Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño weather pattern had formed across the equatorial Pacific. This sets the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

July arabica coffee closed up 1.64%, and July robusta closed up 1.85%. The rally followed Tuesday’s declines, when arabica fell to a 19-month low and robusta slid to a two-month low amid expectations of a bumper Brazilian crop this year.

Record Brazil Crop Forecast Still Weighs on Prices

Last Wednesday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year on year. Rabobank also raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags from 7.0 million bags previously.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest would increase by 12% to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group projected a record 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s 75.4 million bag forecast. StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags on March 12. StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025 – the largest surplus in six years.

Source Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS 71.9
Coffee Trading Academy 71.4
Marex Group 75.9
Sucafina 75.4
StoneX 75.3

Strong Vietnam Exports Pressure Robusta; Inventories Fall

Last Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose 7.9% year on year to 922,000 metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

In contrast, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 6.5-month low of 402,709 bags on Wednesday. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 and are now slightly higher at 3,713 lots. The decline in inventories provides some support to prices.

El Niño Confirmation Raises Concerns; Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Persist

The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed that an El Niño weather pattern has formed across the equatorial Pacific. This could bring months of floods, droughts, and temperature swings that may hinder coffee production in Asia and South America. Coffee trader Commercial stated that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could be the strongest on record.

Furthermore, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

Mixed Outlook for Global Production and Stocks

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3% to 138.658 million bags. The USDA FAS bi-annual report on December 18 projected that 2025/26 world coffee production will increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to fall 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production rises 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

The USDA FAS also forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. This decline reflects strong global demand and persistent supply chain pressures.

Type 2025/26 Forecast (million bags) Year-on-Year Change
Arabica 95.52 -4.7%
Robusta 83.33 +10.9%
Global Total 178.85 +2.0%

Frequently Asked Questions About El Niño and Coffee Prices

Q: Why did coffee prices rise after the El Niño confirmation?

A: Because El Niño can cause floods and droughts that hinder coffee production in Asia and South America, reducing supply and lifting prices.

Q: What is the probability of a “Super El Niño” this year?

A: NOAA estimates a 67% chance of a Super El Niño, which could be the strongest on record.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports affect robusta prices?

A: Higher Vietnamese exports increase global robusta supply, putting downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of ICE arabica inventories?

A: They fell to a 6.5-month low of 402,709 bags on Wednesday.

Q: What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?

A: StoneX expects a surplus of 10 million bags, the largest in six years, but El Niño could alter this outlook.

The coffee market remains caught between large surplus expectations on one hand and climate risks from El Niño plus geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz on the other. Confirmation of El Niño adds a new layer of uncertainty and could reshape market balances in the coming months.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 11, 2026

Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Prices

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 8, 2026

Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Prices

Key Takeaways:

  • July arabica futures fell 0.37% today; July robusta rose 0.60%.
  • Arabica hit a 19-month low last week, robusta a 7-week low.
  • USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year on year.
  • Rabobank raised its global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags.
  • Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026.
  • ICE arabica inventories fell to a 5.75-month low of 419,504 bags.
  • El Niño risks and Strait of Hormuz closure provide price support.

Coffee prices traded mixed today as the ongoing harvest in Brazil continues to weigh on prices. July arabica futures fell 0.37%, while July robusta rose 0.60%. Weakness in the Brazilian real, which fell to a two-month low against the dollar, also pressured prices by encouraging export sales from Brazilian producers.

Last week, arabica fell to a 19-month low, and robusta slid to a seven-week low. The outlook for a record Brazil coffee crop remains the primary bearish factor, though some supportive elements exist.

Record Brazil Crop Forecast Weighs on Prices

Last Wednesday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags. That is a 14% increase year on year. Rabobank also raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags, up from 7.0 million bags previously.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest would increase by 12% to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group projected a record 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s 75.4 million bag forecast. StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags on March 12.

As a result, coffee prices have trended lower over the past six weeks amid an improved global supply outlook. StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025. That would be the largest surplus in six years.

Source Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS 71.9
Coffee Trading Academy 71.4
Marex Group 75.9
Sucafina 75.4
StoneX 75.3

Strong Vietnam Exports Pressure Robusta; Inventories Fall

Last Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose 7.9% year on year to 922,000 metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

In contrast, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 5.75-month low of 419,504 bags last Friday. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 and are now slightly higher at 3,732 lots. The decline in inventories provides some support to prices.

El Niño Concerns and Strait Disruptions Support Prices

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial stated that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. That would damage the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year. There is a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”

Moreover, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

On the bearish side, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3% to 138.658 million bags. The USDA FAS bi-annual report on December 18 projected that 2025/26 world coffee production will increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to fall 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production rises 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

Type 2025/26 Forecast (million bags) Year-on-Year Change
Arabica 95.52 -4.7%
Robusta 83.33 +10.9%
Global Total 178.85 +2.0%

Ending Stocks Continue to Decline

The USDA FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. This decline comes despite higher production expectations. It reflects strong global demand and persistent supply chain pressures.

However, prices may face additional pressure if large surplus forecasts materialize, especially with recovering production in Brazil and Vietnam. Investors remain watchful of weather developments in South America and geopolitical tensions in the Arabian Gulf region.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why are arabica prices falling despite lower exchange inventories?

A: Because of record Brazil crop forecasts and rising Vietnam exports, which increase global supply and weigh on prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports affect robusta prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase global robusta supply, putting downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil, harming tree flowering and reducing next year’s crop. This would support higher prices.

Q: How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect the coffee market?

A: The closure disrupts shipping routes and raises transport, insurance, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

Q: What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?

A: StoneX expects the surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years, driven by higher production in Brazil and Vietnam.

The coffee market remains torn between large surplus expectations on one hand and tight spot supplies, weather risks, and geopolitical tensions on the other. Investors continue to monitor exchange inventories and weather developments in Brazil closely.

 

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 8, 2026

Arabica Coffee Rebounds Amid Tight Spot Market Supplies

Posted on by Qahwa World
Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 5, 2026

Recent trends show that arabica coffee has experienced a rebound in the spot market, drawing attention from both traders and coffee enthusiasts. In this article, we will examine the key developments and analysis surrounding the arabica coffee rebound spot market and what it means for industry stakeholders. If you are following arabica coffee rebound spot market news, understanding arabica coffee rebound spot market conditions is important for those looking to make sense of price fluctuations and opportunities in the industry.

Arabica Coffee Rebounds Amid Tight Spot Market Supplies

Key Highlights:

  • July arabica coffee futures rose 0.34% after hitting a 19-month low.
  • ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.75-month low on Thursday.
  • A record Brazil 2026/27 crop forecast is weighing on prices.
  • Rabobank raised its global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags.
  • Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026.
  • El Niño could delay rains in Brazil and hurt next year’s crop.
  • The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global coffee supplies.

Arabica coffee futures rebounded from a 19-month low today. July arabica rose 0.34%, while July robusta fell 1.34%. The rebound was driven by short covering amid persistent tightness in the spot market. ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 3.75-month low on Thursday.

Therefore, the market remains mixed. Improved global supply expectations have pushed prices lower over the past six weeks. However, near-term supply tightness and geopolitical risks provide support.

Record Brazil Crop Forecast Weighs on Prices

On Wednesday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags. This represents a 14% increase year on year. In addition, Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags, up from 7.0 million bags previously.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest would increase by 12% to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina‘s forecast of 75.4 million bags. StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags on March 12.

As a result, coffee prices have trended lower over the past six weeks. StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025. This would be the largest surplus in six years.

Source Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS 71.9
Coffee Trading Academy 71.4
Marex Group 75.9
Sucafina 75.4
StoneX 75.3

Strong Vietnam Exports Pressure Robusta; Inventories Fall

On Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose 7.9% year on year to 922,000 metric tons. Moreover, Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

In contrast, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.75-month low of 426,063 bags on Thursday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories dropped to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15. They are now slightly higher at 3,732 lots.

El Niño and Strait of Hormuz Threaten Supplies

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial stated that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. This would damage the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year. There is a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”

Furthermore, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by increasing shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs. This raises costs for coffee importers and roasters.

On the bearish side, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3% to 138.658 million bags. The USDA FAS bi-annual report on December 18 projected that 2025/26 world coffee production will increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to fall 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production rises 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

Type 2025/26 Forecast (million bags) Year-over-Year Change
Arabica 95.52 -4.7%
Robusta 83.33 +10.9%
Global Total 178.85 +2.0%

Ending Stocks Continue to Decline

The USDA FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. This decline comes despite higher production expectations. It reflects strong global demand and continued supply chain pressures.

However, prices may face additional pressure if large surplus forecasts materialize, especially with recovering production in Brazil and Vietnam. Investors remain watchful of weather developments in South America and geopolitical tensions in the Arabian Gulf region.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why did arabica coffee prices rebound despite record Brazil crop forecasts?

A: Due to short covering and tight spot market supplies. ICE monitored inventories fell to a 3.75-month low.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports affect robusta prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase global robusta supply, putting downward pressure on prices. July robusta futures fell 1.34% today.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil, harming tree flowering and reducing next year’s crop. This would support higher prices.

Q: How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect the coffee market?

A: The closure disrupts shipping routes and raises transport, insurance, and fuel costs. This increases costs for importers and roasters.

Q: What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?

A: StoneX expects the surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years, driven by higher production in Brazil and Vietnam.

The coffee market remains torn between large surplus expectations on one hand and tight spot supplies, weather risks, and geopolitical tensions on the other. Investors continue to monitor exchange inventories and weather developments in Brazil closely.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 5, 2026

Global Coffee Logistics Under Pressure: Strait of Hormuz & Red Sea Disruptions

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – Logistics Desk
Source: Industry logistics report, Q2 2026 (carrier data, analyst estimates)
Date: May 27, 2026

Global Coffee Logistics Under Pressure: Strait of Hormuz & Red Sea Disruptions

Executive Summary

  • A near‑total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces has reduced container traffic by more than 95%, stranding roughly 500,000 TEUs in the Gulf region.
  • Brent crude has risen above $90 per barrel, and carriers have imposed emergency fuel surcharges, some retroactively.
  • Red Sea instability has forced over 75% of container ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10‑14 days to Asia‑Europe voyages and absorbing 15‑20% of vessel capacity.
  • Brazil’s agricultural export corridors are overwhelmed, causing truck queues, terminal congestion, and competition for containers – directly affecting coffee shipments.
  • Schedule reliability among top carriers ranges from 46.6% (Wan Hai) to 72.3% (Hapag‑Lloyd), with most carriers in the 60‑70% range.
  • Capacity is tight or manageable depending on the trade lane, with spot rates rising and container shortages reported from Honduras and Nicaragua.
  • These logistics pressures are delaying coffee deliveries, raising inventory costs, and adding uncertainty to global coffee supply chains.

The global logistics system is under severe strain in the second quarter of 2026. Two major maritime chokepoints – the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea – are simultaneously disrupted, pushing freight rates higher and delaying shipments of coffee and other goods.

For coffee exporters and importers, these disruptions mean longer transit times, higher costs, and increased uncertainty. The situation is compounded by congestion at Brazilian ports during peak agricultural export season.

Strait of Hormuz: Near‑Total Blockade

As of May 2026, severe instability in the Strait of Hormuz has caused container shipping traffic to drop by more than 95%. Iranian forces have established a near‑total blockade.

Daily ship transits fell from roughly 130 in February 2026 to nearly zero in March. Approximately 3,200 vessels are trapped in the Gulf or waiting outside the strait.

About 500,000 TEUs (Twenty‑Foot Equivalent Units) are stranded at Gulf ports or at sea, creating severe equipment imbalances worldwide.

War‑risk insurance premiums have become prohibitive or have been withdrawn, making passage through the area commercially unviable for many carriers.

Shipping lines are rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit times and adding significant costs for trade routes linking Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

The disruption has also pushed Brent crude prices above $90 per barrel. This fuel shock increases pressure on global supply chains beyond freight and logistics costs alone.

Analysts anticipate prolonged disruption. Even after restrictions ease, recovery will likely take months due to vessel backlogs, equipment shortages and network imbalances.

Red Sea: Rerouting and Capacity Crunch

Red Sea instability, driven by Houthi militant attacks, has forced over 75% of container ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. This adds roughly 10‑14 days to Asia‑Europe voyages.

The crisis has caused a roughly 90% drop in Suez Canal container transit. Extended voyages have absorbed significant shipping capacity, leading to a 15‑20% reduction in available capacity.

Ships are arriving off‑schedule, causing congestion at various transshipment hubs. Spot freight rates on Asia‑Europe routes have increased substantially.

The longer route has resulted in higher fuel consumption, increasing CO2 emissions by over 30%. While some ceasefires were proposed in early 2025, uncertainty remains high.

Analysts predict long‑term structural changes to shipping routes and sustained higher costs for the foreseeable future.

Fuel Surcharges and Rising Freight Costs

Fuel surcharges, often called Bunker Adjustment Factors (BAF), are additional fees added to container shipping rates to account for changes in fuel prices.

As of April 2026, higher fuel costs combined with route disruptions have pushed these charges up significantly. Ocean carriers like MSC, CMA CGM, and Maersk have implemented emergency fuel surcharges, sometimes applied retroactively to cargo already in transit.

These surcharges increase overall freight costs for coffee exporters, especially those shipping from East Africa, Asia, and Latin America to Europe and North America.

Brazil Export Logistics Under Pressure

Brazil’s large soybean and agricultural harvest has overwhelmed northern logistics corridors, especially around Amazon export terminals such as Miritituba.

Truck queues have stretched for kilometers, slowing inland transportation and export throughput. Although soybeans were the primary cargo affected, coffee exporters face indirect impacts.

These include reduced truck availability, terminal congestion, chassis shortages, and rail prioritization toward grains. Brazilian coffee exporters are seeing increased inland freight volatility and tighter booking windows.

Meanwhile, expectations for a strong Brazilian coffee crop (66.7 million bags in 2026) are increasing export demand forecasts for the second half of the year, which could further strain logistics.

Schedule Reliability and Trade Lane Conditions

Schedule reliability among top carriers varies widely. In March 2026, Hapag‑Lloyd was the most reliable top‑13 carrier with 72.3%, followed by Maersk at 70.8%.

Eight carriers had reliability in the 60‑70% range, two were in the 50‑60% range, and Wan Hai was the least reliable at 46.6%.

Only two carriers recorded a month‑over‑month decline in schedule reliability, while 11 of the 13 carriers recorded a year‑over‑year improvement.

The Gemini Cooperation recorded 76.8% schedule reliability across all arrivals in February/March 2026, followed by MSC at 65.4% and Ocean Alliance at 65.9%.

Table 1: Trade Lane Conditions (Q2 2026)

Trade Lane Capacity Rate Trend Key Issues
APAC to Global Flat (no space issue) Increasing Spot rates rising
India to Global Tight Slight upward Container availability limited
Brazil to Global Manageable Stable Port congestion, gate windows, occasional rollovers
Central America (CAM) to Global Tight — Container shortages (20s and 40s) from Honduras/Nicaragua
East Africa to Global Good — Congestion in Dar es Salaam and Mombasa

Implications for Coffee Supply Chains

The combination of these logistics pressures is hitting coffee exporters and importers hard. Coffee shipments from East Africa (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania) face congestion at Mombasa and Dar es Salaam.

Central American coffee (Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala) is facing container shortages, particularly for 20‑foot and 40‑foot units, delaying exports to the United States and Europe.

Brazilian coffee exporters are competing with soybeans and other grains for trucking and terminal capacity. Inland freight volatility is rising, and booking windows are tighter.

Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10‑14 days to Asia‑Europe shipments. For coffee from Vietnam and Indonesia to Europe, transit times have increased significantly, affecting freshness and quality.

Emergency fuel surcharges are raising delivered costs for coffee importers. These costs will eventually be passed down the supply chain to roasters and consumers.

Schedule reliability remains below pre‑crisis levels. This means coffee buyers cannot rely on predictable delivery windows, forcing them to hold more inventory, which ties up capital.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has the Strait of Hormuz blockade affected coffee shipping?

The blockade has stranded about 500,000 TEUs in the Gulf, caused massive rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and triggered emergency fuel surcharges, all of which increase coffee shipping costs and delays.

What is the impact on coffee from East Africa?

East African ports (Mombasa, Dar es Salaam) are congested, and container availability is tight, delaying shipments from Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.

How are Central American coffee exports affected?

Honduras and Nicaragua face container shortages for 20‑foot and 40‑foot units, slowing coffee exports to the United States and Europe.

What is the outlook for schedule reliability?

Most top carriers have 60‑70% reliability, but the trend is improving year‑over‑year. Hapag‑Lloyd leads at 72.3%.

Will freight rates continue to rise?

Yes. Emergency fuel surcharges and capacity shortages are pushing spot rates higher, and analysts expect sustained high costs due to prolonged rerouting.

How is Brazil’s coffee harvest affecting logistics?

A record coffee crop (66.7 million bags) is competing with soybeans for trucking and terminal capacity, causing congestion and tighter booking windows.

Author: Qahwa World – Logistics Desk | Source: Industry logistics report, carrier data, analyst estimates | Date: May 27, 2026

How the Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz Impacts the Coffee Sector

Posted on by Qahwa World
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO)
Author: Coffee World – Dubai
Date: May 20, 2026

Executive Summary

  • Reduced shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz since March threaten global coffee supply chains.
  • Brent crude prices jumped 63% from $72.29/barrel in February to $118.03/barrel in April.
  • Urea fertilizer prices rose 47% from $465.45/ton to $684.75/ton over the same period.
  • One-quarter to one-third of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait, with Qatar supplying 14% of the world’s urea.
  • Fertilizer accounts for 23% of production costs in Brazil and 26% in Vietnam, hitting smallholders hard.
  • The Middle East imports 8.6 million bags of coffee annually (4.5% of global imports), making regional demand vulnerable to instability.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Global Oil Artery Under Pressure

The International Coffee Organization warns that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could generate significant ripple effects across global commodity markets, and coffee is no exception. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical chokepoints in global trade, with around one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passing through it. Since March, shipping flows through the strait have been reduced, triggering higher oil prices, increased fuel costs, and greater volatility in freight markets.

Brent crude prices increased from $72.29 per barrel on February 27 to a high of $118.03 per barrel on April 29 – a jump of more than 63%. This directly affects coffee transport costs, inland logistics, and fertilizer prices, all central elements of production and export economics.

Fertilizer: The Weak Link in the Chain

Fertilizers are essential for coffee production. Between one-quarter and one-third of the global fertilizer trade – and up to one-third of nitrogen fertilizers (urea) – transits through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf region is a major fertilizer producer, with the Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), considered the world’s largest urea supplier, alone providing 14% of global urea.

As a result, the price of urea fertilizer rose from $465.45 per ton to $684.75 per ton over the same period – a 47% increase. For coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam, fertilizers represent a large share of production costs: 23% in Brazil and 26% in Vietnam. Smallholders, who operate on thin margins, are the most vulnerable to these increases.

Indicator Feb 27, 2026 Apr 29, 2026 Increase
Brent Crude (USD/barrel) 72.29 118.03 63%
Urea Fertilizer (USD/ton) 465.45 684.75 47%

The Middle East: A Strategic Consumer Region Under Pressure

The Middle East has become an increasingly important coffee-consuming region, with strong demand growth across Gulf countries over the past two decades. In 2024, imports to the Middle East reached 8.6 million bags, representing 4.5% of total world imports. Any regional instability may affect import demand, port operations, and re-export hubs such as the United Arab Emirates, which plays a strategic role in regional distribution and specialty coffee trade.

According to the European Coffee Federation, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with ongoing instability in the Red Sea, are pushing shipping lines to use longer alternative routings via the Cape of Good Hope. This leads to extended transit times, tighter vessel capacity, higher fuel costs, and additional security-related surcharges – especially for Ethiopia, which uses the port of Djibouti near the conflict zone.

Coffee Futures Markets: Extreme Sensitivity

Coffee futures markets are highly sensitive to macroeconomic uncertainty. Heightened geopolitical risk tends to strengthen the US dollar while intensifying speculative movements across commodities. For producing countries, whose local currencies are closely linked to export revenues, exchange-rate volatility can create both opportunities and risks, influencing farmgate prices and export competitiveness.

At this stage, the ICO considers it premature to draw conclusions or project specific market outcomes. However, it identifies several indicators the sector should monitor closely in the coming months: energy prices, freight rates, fertilizer costs, trade insurance premiums, currency volatility, and shifts in demand in key importing markets.

Conclusion: A Global Coffee Sector at Risk

Coffee is a deeply globalized sector, and its resilience depends on stable trade systems and international cooperation. In times of geopolitical uncertainty, transparency, market intelligence, and coordinated dialogue become even more important. The ICO will continue to monitor developments and provide timely analysis to support producing and consuming countries in managing potential risks to the sector.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. How much have oil prices increased since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began?

Brent crude prices rose 63%, from $72.29 per barrel on February 27 to $118.03 per barrel on April 29, 2026.

2. How does the Strait crisis affect fertilizer prices?

Urea fertilizer prices increased 47% over the same period because one-quarter to one-third of global fertilizer trade passes through the strait.

3. What is the fertilizer cost share for Brazil and Vietnam?

Fertilizer accounts for about 23% of production costs in Brazil and 26% in Vietnam, making them highly vulnerable.

4. How much coffee does the Middle East import annually?

The Middle East imported 8.6 million bags in 2024, which is 4.5% of total global coffee imports.

5. What alternative shipping routes are being used?

Ships are taking the longer Cape of Good Hope route, increasing transit times, fuel costs, and congestion in Mediterranean ports.

6. Can the ICO predict precise market outcomes?

No. The ICO says it is premature to draw conclusions but urges monitoring of energy, freight, fertilizer, currency, and demand indicators.

Author: Coffee World – Dubai  |
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO)  |
Publication date: May 20, 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report April 2026: Global prices fall 2.7% as supply outlook outweighs Strait of Hormuz disruption

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London

Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, April 2026
Report number: N/A (monthly market report)
Date: May 2026

ICO Composite Indicator Price averages 266.24 US cents/lb; Robusta drops 6.9% (fifth consecutive monthly decline); certified stocks remain at historically low levels.

LONDON, May 2026 — The International Coffee Organization (ICO) Composite Indicator Price (I‑CIP) averaged 266.24 US cents per pound in April 2026, a 2.7 percent decrease from March 2026. The market balanced two opposing forces: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since 4 March, which pushed crude oil prices up by 55.8 percent and shipping freight costs by 43.6 percent between 27 February and 30 April, against a continued improvement in the global supply outlook. On balance, the supply‑side factor outweighed the geopolitical disruption, erasing most of March’s gains.

All coffee groups recorded losses in April, with Robusta suffering the steepest decline. The ICO report highlights that since the end of coffee year 2024/25, Robusta prices have dropped 21.9 percent, while the I‑CIP fell 18.0 percent and the three Arabica groups declined by an average of 16.9 percent. The sharper downturn in Robusta is attributed to improved supply availability — Robusta green bean exports rose 16.7 percent in the first half of 2025/26 — and a 4.5 percentage point increase in its share of total green exports.

Key takeaway: The market has largely priced in the war, while fundamentals (supply and demand) are now driving prices downward. The I‑CIP dropped 2.7% in April, compared to a 2.3% increase in March when geopolitical fears dominated.

Price performance by group and futures markets

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds both contracted by 0.9 percent in April, averaging 334.56 and 331.32 US cents/lb respectively. Brazilian Naturals fell 2.1 percent to 313.76 US cents/lb. Robusta declined 6.9 percent to 164.64 US cents/lb. At the futures level, the London ICE Robusta market dropped 7.0 percent to 150.65 US cents/lb, while New York ICE Arabica fell 1.9 percent to 284.63 US cents/lb.

IndicatorMarch 2026April 2026ChangeICO Composite (US cents/lb)273.70266.29-2.7%Colombian Milds337.45334.52-0.9%Other Milds334.34331.52-0.8%Brazilian Naturals320.51314.29-1.9%Robustas176.77164.17-7.1%New York ICE (Arabica)290.18284.75-1.9%London ICE (Robusta)161.91150.19-7.2%

Strait of Hormuz blockage: a lasting impact on input costs

Since 4 March 2026, shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz have remained disrupted. Around one‑fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through this corridor. Between 27 February and 30 April, Brent crude rose from US$73.23/bbl to US$114.09/bbl, an increase of 55.8 percent. The Containerized Freight Index climbed from 1,331.1 to 1,911.4 points, a 43.6 percent rise. Fertilizer urea price jumped 47 percent from US$465/t to US$682/t over the same two‑month period. The Gulf region is a major fertilizer producer; Qatar Fertiliser Company alone accounts for about 14 percent of global urea production. The ICO notes that the increase in urea prices will hit high‑input coffee origins most severely, especially producers who have not secured fertilizers in advance for the main nitrogen application period supporting flowering for the next harvest.

Global supply outlook improves – market forecasts point to larger crops

Throughout March and April, several market players released optimistic projections. On 18 March, Scaufina projected Brazil’s 2026/27 crop to be up 15.5 percent year‑on‑year. On 19 March, Marex Group projected a 14.3 percent increase. On 2 April, StoneX projected global 2026 production at 182.5 million bags, an increase of 9.6 percent over the previous year, and forecast world stocks to rise to 48.2 million bags from 38.3 million in 2025.

These fundamentals gained the upper hand in April, as the market appeared to have already factored in the war. The I‑CIP’s 2.7 percent decline reversed the 2.3 percent increase seen in March, when geopolitical shocks dominated.

Price differentials and arbitrage

The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential widened slightly from 3.12 to 3.34 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential grew 22.7 percent to 20.8 US cents/lb. The arbitrage between New York and London futures markets increased 4.5 percent to 133.99 US cents/lb in April, the second consecutive monthly increase. The arbitrage ratio (New York/London) stood at 1.89, above the historical average of 1.75 (January 2018 to May 2025). The ratio has remained above the historic average for 11 of the past 12 months, indicating a return to more typical arbitrage levels.

Volatility declines across all indicators

Intra‑day volatility of the I‑CIP averaged 9.0 percent in April, down 0.8 percentage points from March. Colombian Milds volatility fell to 8.5 percent, Other Milds to 8.8 percent, Brazilian Naturals to 9.7 percent, and Robustas to 10.7 percent. New York futures volatility decreased to 10.0 percent, London to 11.0 percent.

Certified stocks remain at historic lows

London certified Robusta stocks fell 5.5 percent month‑on‑month to 0.65 million bags in April. US certified Arabica stocks dropped 10.1 percent to 0.55 million bags. Stock levels have stabilized in the last six months but remain at historically very low levels. From January 2010 to December 2021, average total ICE stocks were 4.87 million bags. Since the end of 2021, total certified stocks have stayed below 3.0 million bags. Calculated as months of EU and US consumption, current stocks represent just 0.22 months’ worth, compared to an average of 0.91 months between 2010 and 2021.

Green bean exports: mixed performance by group

Global green bean exports in March 2026 rose 0.8 percent to 11.7 million bags. Robusta exports surged 24.0 percent to a record 5.52 million bags, driven by Vietnam (up 30.3 percent to 3.67 million bags) and supported by Brazil and India. Colombian Milds exports fell 33.8 percent to 0.88 million bags, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, as Colombia’s exports dropped 37.4 percent due to falling local supply. Other Milds exports edged up 0.9 percent to 2.59 million bags, led by Honduras (+19.3%). Brazilian Naturals exports declined 16.8 percent to 2.71 million bags, marking the 13th consecutive month of negative growth, driven primarily by Brazil.

Total Arabica exports fell 13.6 percent to 6.18 million bags in March 2026. As a result, Arabica’s share of total green bean exports for the first six months of 2025/26 fell to 59.6 percent from 64.5 percent a year earlier.

Coffee group March 2025 (million bags) March 2026 (million bags) Change
Robustas 4.45 5.52 +24.0%
Colombian Milds 1.33 0.88 -33.8%
Other Milds 2.57 2.59 +0.9%
Brazilian Naturals 3.26 2.71 -16.8%

Total exports by region (all forms of coffee)

Global exports of all forms of coffee increased 1.6 percent to 13.59 million bags in March 2026. Asia & Oceania led growth with a 13.1 percent rise to 5.82 million bags, driven by Vietnam’s 25.1 percent increase to 4.3 million bags – the country’s largest‑ever March export volume and second‑highest monthly volume on record. This was partly offset by Indonesia, whose exports fell an estimated 47.6 percent to 0.45 million bags.

Africa’s exports fell 14.7 percent to 1.4 million bags, led by Ethiopia (down 29.7% to 0.44 million bags). South America’s exports declined 8.3 percent to 4.07 million bags, with Colombia down 28.5 percent to 0.9 million bags – the fourth consecutive monthly downturn. The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America rose 7.1 percent to 2.3 million bags, led by Honduras (+19.3%).

Exports by form: soluble coffee up 6.6%

Green beans accounted for 85.23 percent of total exports in the first half of 2025/26, soluble coffee 14.21 percent, and roasted coffee 0.56 percent. Soluble coffee exports rose 6.6 percent to 1.82 million bags in March 2026, with Vietnam (0.56 million bags), Brazil (0.4 million), and India (0.28 million) as the largest shippers. Roasted bean exports increased 21.0 percent to 0.07 million bags.

Global supply/demand balance

According to ICO data, 2023/24 world production reached 177.5 million bags, up 5.2 percent from the previous year. Arabica production rose 4.5 percent to 102.1 million bags, Robusta 6.2 percent to 75.4 million bags. Consumption in 2023/24 was 175.1 million bags, up 1.4 percent, resulting in a positive balance of 2.44 million bags – the first surplus after three consecutive deficits.

Frequently Asked Questions

  • What was the ICO Composite Indicator Price in April 2026?
The I‑CIP averaged 266.24 US cents per pound, a 2.7 percent decrease from March 2026.
  • How much have Robusta prices fallen since the end of coffee year 2024/25?
Robusta prices have dropped 21.9 percent since the end of coffee year 2024/25, while the I‑CIP fell 18.0 percent and the three Arabica groups declined by an average of 16.9 percent.
  • How did the Strait of Hormuz closure affect shipping and fertilizer costs?
The Containerized Freight Index rose 43.6 percent and urea prices jumped 47 percent between 27 February and 30 April 2026.
  • What are market analysts forecasting for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop?
Scaufina projected a 15.5 percent increase, and Marex Group projected a 14.3 percent increase year‑on‑year.
  • How much green Robusta coffee was exported in March 2026?
Robusta green bean exports reached 5.52 million bags, a 24.0 percent increase from March 2025, the largest ever monthly volume on record.
  • What is the current level of certified stocks compared to historical averages?
Current certified stocks represent just 0.22 months of EU and US consumption, compared to an average of 0.91 months between 2010 and 2021.
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, April 2026 (published May 2026). All figures and analysis are strictly based on the original report. No external data has been added.

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March 2026 Coffee Market Report: Global Prices Rebound Amid Geopolitical Tension

ICO February 2026 Report: Has the Inflationary Wave Receded?

Global Coffee Market Roadmap—January 2026

ICO Releases Global Coffee Market Report – December 2025

 

Arabica Coffee Prices Drop on Outlook for Large Brazilian Harvest

Posted on by Qahwa World
Dubai – Qahwa Word

Arabica coffee futures fell to a two-week low on Thursday, weighed down by growing expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil. These developments have had a significant impact on arabica coffee prices, especially given Brazil’s bumper crop forecasts. Meanwhile, robusta prices edged higher. In fact, arabica coffee prices may fluctuate in response to Brazil bumper crop news.

July arabica coffee (KCN26) settled down 10.60 points, or 3.73%, while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) gained 19 points (+0.56%).

Brazilian Production Forecasts Weigh on Prices
Several recent projections point to a significantly larger Brazilian coffee harvest in 2026/27, putting pressure on arabica markets. Notably, arabica coffee prices are closely tied to Brazil bumper crop expectations, making these forecasts crucial for analysts.

  • The Coffee Trading Academy estimated last Thursday that Brazil’s 2026/27 crop could rise 12% from the previous year to 71.4 million bags. Moreover, fluctuations in arabica coffee prices strongly reflect Brazil’s bumper crop predictions.

  • On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 75.9 million bags, slightly above Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags (a 15.5% year‑on‑year increase).

  • StoneX raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2026/27 production to a record 75.3 million bags on March 12, up from a November forecast of 70.7 million bags. This kind of Brazil bumper crop forecast is a key driver for arabica coffee prices.

StoneX also predicted that the global coffee surplus in 2026 would grow to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025 – the largest surplus in six years. As a result, arabica coffee prices, Brazil, and bumper crop numbers remain intertwined topics for market participants.

Vietnam’s Strong Exports Pressure Robusta
Robusta prices face headwinds from surging Vietnamese shipments. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported on Saturday that the country’s coffee exports from January to April 2026 rose 15.8% year‑on‑year to 810,000 metric tons. For the full year 2025, Vietnamese exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Additionally, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to climb 6% year‑on‑year to a four‑year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

Strait of Hormuz Closure Creates Supply Concerns
The ongoing shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supply chains, supporting prices broadly. Higher shipping rates, insurance premiums, and increased costs for fertilizer and fuel have tightened available supplies, raising expenses for coffee importers and roasters. All these factors can indirectly affect arabica coffee prices, especially if Brazil expects another bumper crop.

Tight Inventories and Lower Brazilian Exports Provide Support
Signs of limited immediate supplies are also underpinning the market:

  • ICE arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 2.5‑month low of 483,292 bags on Thursday. This reduction coincides with a growing focus on Brazil bumper crop forecasts and arabica coffee prices.

  • ICE robusta inventories hit a 16.25‑month low of 3,755 lots last Tuesday.

Brazil’s export figures have also trended lower. On April 14, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports in March fell 10% year‑on‑year to 2.65 million bags. Earlier, on April 7, the country’s Trade Ministry noted that total March coffee exports declined 31% year‑on‑year to 151,000 metric tons. Therefore, arabica coffee prices in Brazil remain sensitive to both export volumes and bumper crop projections. It’s worth noting that Brazil’s bumper crop continues to make arabica coffee prices extremely volatile.

Global Export and Production Outlook
On November 7, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) slipped 0.3% year‑on‑year to 138.658 million bags.

Looking further ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected in its December 18 biannual report that world coffee production in 2025/26 would rise 2.0% year‑on‑year to a record 178.848 million bags. Within that total, arabica production is forecast to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production is expected to increase 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. The global market continues to monitor arabica coffee prices, Brazil, and potential bumper crop impacts for the coming years.

For Brazil, the FAS sees 2025/26 production falling 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is projected to grow 6.2% to a four‑year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast to decrease 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. In summary, arabica coffee prices, Brazil, and the bumper crop outlook will remain central themes for the global coffee market throughout 2026.

Coffee Prices Get Support from Brazilian Real Strength

Posted on by Qahwa World
Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures traded sharply higher today. Arabica coffee rose to its highest level in one week. July arabica gained 3.43 percent. July robusta added 1.5 percent.

A major supporting factor is the strength of the Brazilian real. The currency surged to a two and a quarter year high against the US dollar. A stronger real discourages Brazilian coffee farmers from selling their crops overseas, which pushes prices upward.

Additional support comes from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This disruption has raised global shipping rates, insurance costs, fertilizer and fuel expenses. Coffee importers and roasters now face higher costs, tightening global supplies.

On the negative side, expectations of a large Brazilian coffee crop are limiting gains. The Coffee Trading Academy projected last Thursday that Brazil’s 2026/2027 harvest will increase 12 percent year over year to 71.4 million bags.

On March 19, Marex Group Plc forecast a record Brazilian crop of 75.9 million bags for the same season. That surpassed Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags, which represented a 15.5 percent annual increase. On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags. StoneX also projected the 2026 global coffee surplus would expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025. That would be the largest surplus in six years.

For robusta coffee, soaring exports from Vietnam are a bearish factor. Vietnam is the world’s largest robusta producer. On Saturday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to April 2026 rose 15.8 percent year over year to 810,000 metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5 percent annually to 1.58 million metric tons. In addition, Vietnam’s 2025/2026 coffee production is projected to climb 6 percent year over year to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons, or 29.4 million bags.

Tightness in arabica supplies is supporting prices. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a two and a quarter month low of 494,508 bags on April 21.

Smaller exports from Brazil also help support prices. On April 14, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s March green coffee exports fell 10 percent year over year to 2.65 million bags. On April 7, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that March coffee exports fell 31 percent annually to 151,000 metric tons.

Robusta coffee also sees bullish signs from tighter supplies. ICE robusta inventories fell to a sixteen and a quarter month low of 3,755 lots last Tuesday.

As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year, which runs October through September, fell 0.3 percent year over year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service said in its biannual report on December 18 that world coffee production in 2025/2026 would increase 2.0 percent annually to a record 178.848 million bags. That includes a 4.7 percent decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a 10.9 percent increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags. The USDA forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/2026 coffee production would decline 3.1 percent to 63 million bags. Vietnam’s coffee output would rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. The USDA also forecasts that 2025/2026 ending stocks will fall 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/2025.

March 2026 Coffee Market Report: Global Prices Rebound Amid Geopolitical Tension

Posted on by Qahwa World

Global Coffee Market Report: March 2026

An In-Depth Expert Analysis by an Independent Journalist – Based on the Official ICO Coffee Market Report

Dubai – Qahwa World

The global coffee market experienced one of its most dramatic and multifaceted months in recent memory during March 2026. After three consecutive months of steady price erosion, the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) staged a decisive rebound, averaging 273.70 US cents/lb, a solid 2.3% increase from February’s 267.57 US cents/lb. This recovery was not driven by traditional supply fundamentals alone. Instead, it was propelled by an abrupt and powerful geopolitical shock that temporarily overrode the market’s otherwise bearish supply outlook. The result was a case study in how external macro forces can intersect with coffee-specific dynamics to create extreme short-term volatility while leaving longer-term questions unresolved.

The Strait of Hormuz Crisis: A Geopolitical Black Swan for Commodities

The catalyst arrived on 4 March when the Strait of Hormuz was declared closed to vessels allied with the United States amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. Few waterways are as strategically vital: roughly 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade and nearly 20% of global liquefied natural gas exports transit this narrow passage. The immediate consequences rippled far beyond energy markets. Brent crude prices breached $100 per barrel within days. Bunker fuel, container freight rates, and marine insurance premiums spiked simultaneously. Coffee traders, already navigating a complex supply picture, responded with aggressive risk-on buying.

You may read : ICO February 2026 Report: Has the Inflationary Wave Receded?

The ICO report highlights the dual impact on the sector. In the short term, higher shipping costs and energy expenses added upward pressure on physical coffee premiums. In the longer term, the disruption threatened fertilizer supply chains. The Gulf region is a major global fertilizer producer, and between one-quarter and one-third of the entire global fertilizer trade, including up to one-third of nitrogen fertilizers such as urea, passes through the strait. While the current 2025/26 crop cycle was largely insulated as most fertilizers had already been applied, any prolongation of the blockade would create risks for the 2026/27 season. This layered uncertainty injected a significant risk premium into coffee futures and physical markets.

March in Four Distinct Phases: A Masterclass in Market Psychology

Phase 1 – Geopolitical Rally (2–9 March): The month opened with the I-CIP at 267.40 US cents/lb. Within five trading days of the blockade announcement, risk-premium buying propelled prices to 278.77 US cents/lb, a 4.3% surge. The rally reflected surging energy costs, freight rates, and insurance premiums, which created a cost-push narrative embraced by coffee bulls.

Phase 2 – Sharp Correction (10–13 March): The market reversed sharply. On 10–11 March the I-CIP fell from 276.01 to 267.19 US cents/lb. The trigger was fundamentals. Leading brokerages Marex Group Plc and Sucafina released forecasts for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at 75.9 million bags and 75.4 million bags respectively. By 13 March the I-CIP reached its monthly low of 265.50 US cents/lb. Risk appetite weakened further as broader financial markets rotated toward safe-haven assets.

Phase 3 – Stabilization and New Rally (14–24 March): Prices stabilized in the 269–271 US cents/lb range. Mixed signals emerged, including reports of limited vessel traffic through the Strait and persistent backwardation in the futures curve, indicating continued tightness in nearby supply.

Phase 4 – Late-Month Spike and Selloff (25–30 March): The rally faded as bearish catalysts returned. Rabobank reiterated its forecast of an 8.64 million-bag global surplus for 2026/27. Selling pressure intensified, and the month closed weaker despite the overall monthly gain.

This four-phase structure highlights a market shaped by competing forces: geopolitical risk provided temporary support, while expectations of record production capped upside momentum.

Divergent Performance Across Coffee Groups

  • Colombian Milds: +2.0% to 337.45 US cents/lb
  • Other Milds: +4.0% to 334.34 US cents/lb
  • Brazilian Naturals: +3.9% to 320.51 US cents/lb
  • Robustas: –1.6% to 176.77 US cents/lb

The London Robusta contract fell 2.5% to 161.91 US cents/lb, while New York Arabica futures rose 0.5% to 290.18 US cents/lb. Differentials reflected this divergence. The Colombian Milds–Other Milds gap narrowed from 9.54 to 3.12 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals–Robustas gap widened to 143.74 US cents/lb, and the Other Milds–Robustas gap expanded to 157.57 US cents/lb. The arbitrage between London and New York futures increased to 128.27 US cents/lb.

You may also read: Global Coffee Market Roadmap—January 2026

Intra-day volatility eased slightly, with the I-CIP volatility falling to 9.8%. Robustas volatility rose to 10.9%. Certified stocks showed contrasting trends: London Robusta stocks contracted 10.7% to 0.66 million bags, while New York Arabica stocks increased 17.7% to 0.61 million bags.

February 2026 Export Data: The Underlying Supply Reality

While March prices reacted to geopolitics, February trade data revealed structural supply pressure. Global green-bean exports fell 9.0% year-on-year to 9.79 million bags. Total exports of all forms of coffee declined 5.7% to 11.46 million bags.

Regional Breakdown (All Forms of Coffee)

  • Asia & Oceania: –4.7% to 4.45 million bags. Vietnam’s exports fell 14.9% to 2.76 million bags due to the timing of Tết (Vietnamese Lunar New Year), which reduced working days. India partially offset this with a 38.5% increase.
  • South America: –21.8% to 3.61 million bags. Brazil and Colombia recorded significant declines in both exports and production.
  • Caribbean, Mexico & Central America: +30.0% to 1.98 million bags. Honduras led gains due to harvest timing shifts caused by previous weather disruptions.
  • Africa: +5.9% to 1.43 million bags, driven by Côte d’Ivoire.

Arabica’s share of total green-bean exports for the first five months of coffee year 2025/26 declined to 60.9% from 65.1% a year earlier.

Processed coffee exports showed strength, with soluble coffee rising 18.0% to 1.6 million bags and roasted exports increasing 85.1% from a low base.

Supply-Demand Balance: A Surplus on the Horizon

The ICO supply-demand balance for the coffee year beginning October 2024 shows world production at 177.51 million bags, up 5.2% year-on-year. Consumption rose 1.4% to 175.07 million bags. This results in a surplus of 2.44 million bags, marking a shift toward oversupply conditions.

Expert Perspective: What This Means for the Industry

March 2026 demonstrated the coffee market’s sensitivity to external shocks even in a structurally supply-heavy environment. Geopolitical developments provided temporary price support, but underlying fundamentals continued to reflect expectations of abundant supply, particularly from Brazil’s projected 2026/27 crop.

Input costs remain a key variable, particularly fertilizer supply chains linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged disruption could influence production costs and future output. Meanwhile, widening Arabica–Robusta differentials and inter-market arbitrage opportunities reflect shifting trade dynamics across futures markets.

Conclusion

The March 2026 coffee market absorbed a significant geopolitical shock while maintaining its broader supply-driven trajectory. The ICO Composite Indicator Price rose 2.3%, halting a three-month decline. However, volatility and late-month weakness reinforced the dominance of supply expectations in shaping market direction. Attention now turns to developments affecting logistics, input costs, and the 2026/27 production cycle.

All data, figures, and phase descriptions are drawn directly and exclusively from the International Coffee Organization’s official Coffee Market Report – March 2026. Analysis and contextual commentary are the independent assessment of the author.

 

War Redraws Global Shipping Map and Pressures Coffee Supply Chains

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

A fresh escalation in the Middle East at the end of February has sent new shockwaves through global logistics, adding to an already fragile maritime environment shaped by two years of Red Sea disruption and intensifying geopolitical risk.

  • Strait of Hormuz Slowdown Raises Cost Fears

As of 28 February, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints — has slowed dramatically amid heightened security risks. Several carriers, including CMA CGM, have introduced Emergency Conflict Surcharges to offset rising insurance premiums and security-related operating costs.

While coffee shipments do not transit the Strait directly, the knock-on effects are significant. Gulf producers account for roughly 20% of global crude oil supply, and oil prices hovering around $70 per barrel are widely expected to face upward pressure. With bunker fuel representing about 40% of vessel operating costs, further increases in Bunker Adjustment Factors appear likely.

Higher fuel bills, combined with longer routings already in place, are expected to weigh on transit times, vessel availability and global freight rates. For coffee traders, that translates into longer sailing schedules, potential equipment imbalances, reduced schedule reliability and renewed upward pressure on ocean freight costs.

  • The situation remains fluid.

Red Sea: A Crisis Entering Its Third Year

More than two years after the first Houthi missile struck a commercial vessel in the Red Sea, the industry continues to absorb the consequences of one of the most disruptive trade shocks in decades.

The crisis began in November 2023, when Houthi forces seized the Galaxy Leader and launched a sustained campaign targeting merchant vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. At its peak, more than 100 ships were targeted. Traffic volumes through the Red Sea fell by roughly 60%, forcing carriers to divert around the Cape of Good Hope.

Those diversions added between 10 and 14 sailing days, absorbed global capacity and destabilized schedules across major East–West trade lanes.

A Gaza ceasefire toward the end of 2025 briefly encouraged hopes of normalization. Some carriers began adjusting fleet plans in anticipation of a return to Suez routings. However, renewed escalation in the Middle East and fresh Houthi threats have reversed those plans. All major carriers are currently continuing voyages around the Cape of Good Hope.

  • Carrier Responses

Maersk has confirmed that its Middle East–India–U.S. East Coast (MECL) service, originally intended to transit the Red Sea, will be cancelled and rerouted around Africa.

CMA CGM, which had initially led efforts to resume Suez transits, has since withdrawn from most crossings and reverted to previous sailing patterns.

Across the Asia–Europe trade, most services remain diverted, with carriers unwilling to recommit until sustained security assurances emerge.

Roughly 12% of global seaborne trade depends on the Suez Canal — an exposure that underscores the structural vulnerability of the system. Industry leaders now emphasize improved data, faster decision-making and scenario planning as essential tools in a landscape defined by prolonged uncertainty.

  • Hapag-Lloyd Moves to Acquire Zim in $4.2 Billion Deal

Amid the geopolitical turbulence, consolidation continues.

Hapag-Lloyd has agreed to acquire Israeli carrier Zim in a $4.2 billion cash deal, offering $35 per share — a 58% premium to Zim’s share price as of 20 February. The transaction would elevate the Frankfurt-listed group to the world’s fifth-largest container shipping line.

Chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen said the combined network would significantly strengthen services across the Transpacific, Intra-Asia, Atlantic, Latin America and East Mediterranean trades.

To address Israeli government concerns — it holds a golden share in Zim and considers it a strategic asset — Hapag-Lloyd will carve out a separate Israel-focused operator owned by FIMI, launching with 16 vessels.

The transaction is expected to close in late 2026, subject to shareholder, government and regulatory approval.

  • U.S. Maritime Plan Revives Port Fee Debate

In Washington, the Trump administration has unveiled a long-awaited Maritime Action Plan (MAP), reviving a controversial proposal to levy fees on foreign-built vessels calling at U.S. ports.

The 36-page plan outlines a four-pillar strategy aimed at rebuilding U.S. shipbuilding capacity, modernizing maritime training, protecting industrial infrastructure and strengthening national security.

At its core is a proposed per-kilogram fee on imported cargo discharged by foreign-built ships. Modeled between $0.01 and $0.25 per kilogram, the levy could generate approximately $66 billion over a decade at the low end — and up to $1.5 trillion at the high end — significantly exceeding the short-lived port fees introduced in 2025.

President Donald Trump framed the initiative as central to industrial revival, calling for hundreds of billions of dollars in new investment in American shipyards.

Carriers and trade partners, however, have warned that such measures would increase landed costs, distort routing economics and potentially trigger retaliation.

The plan also references bridge strategies, including limited foreign construction tied to U.S. investment commitments, and financing mechanisms such as Title XI and Capital Construction Funds. No firm execution timeline has been announced.

  • Freight Rates: Market Turns Softer in Early 2026

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reading of 1,251.46 on 13 February 2026 reflects a market transitioning toward lower and more volatile rates.

Spot rates for 40-foot high cube containers from Asia to the U.S. West Coast are projected to decline by 30–35% compared with 2025 levels. Although first-quarter seasonality — including pre-Lunar New Year rate increases — has returned, persistent capacity growth and uncertainty surrounding Red Sea developments are expected to keep pressure on spot markets.

  • Schedule Reliability Slips Again

Global schedule reliability fell to 62.8% in December 2025, marking the second-lowest reading since May of that year.

European port congestion remains the primary driver, compounded by rerouting challenges linked to the Red Sea crisis.

Cancelled sailings surged 122% in February 2026 compared with January, tightening effective capacity around the Lunar New Year period.

Although overall reliability has improved relative to 2024, performance remains uneven. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd ranked among the most reliable carriers in late 2025, while others reported on-time rates between 50% and 60%.

  • Trade Lane Snapshot

APAC to Global: Capacity stable; spot rates declining.

India to Global: Tight capacity; slight upward rate trend.

Brazil to Global: Manageable capacity; continued port congestion and gate window constraints; occasional rollovers; rates stable.

Central America to Global: Tight capacity; container shortages (20’ and 40’) reported in Honduras and Nicaragua.

East Africa to Global: Capacity available; severe congestion at Mombasa.

Port Delays Widen

Operational bottlenecks persist across major gateways:

Antwerp (Belgium): 3-day delay

New York (USA): 4-day delay

London Gateway (UK): 5-day delay

Buenaventura (Colombia): 4-day delay

Santos (Brazil): 5-day delay

India (major ports): 4-day delay

Vietnam: 4-day delay

Mombasa (Kenya): 10-day delay

Australia (major ports): 3-day delay

With vessels queuing at multiple hubs and geopolitical risk layered on top of structural capacity shifts, 2026 is shaping up as another year in which resilience — rather than efficiency — defines the global shipping narrative.