Tag: coffee stocks

Honduran coffee production surges to 5.53 million bags

Posted on by Qahwa World
IHCAFE forecasts continued growth in 2026/27 supported by plant nutrition, area expansion, and new plantations; exports rise 7.5% but differentiated coffee share drops sharply in early data.
TEGUCIGALPA — Qahwa World

Honduras will produce 5.53 million 60 kilogram bags of coffee in the 2025/26 marketing year, a 6.3 percent increase from the previous cycle, according to the annual coffee report published by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service in Tegucigalpa. Notably, the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 indicates production is then forecast to jump another 9 percent to 6.03 million bags in 2026/27, returning the country to output levels last seen in 2021/22.

The projected growth is driven by improved plant nutrition, favorable biennial production cycles, expansion of productive areas, enhanced pruning and crop management practices, and the maturation of newly established coffee plantations. Planted area is expected to grow by about 3 percent, or 10,000 hectares, in 2025/26, largely due to the introduction of the rust resistant Parainema variety. Furthermore, forecasts for Honduras coffee production in 2026 are shaped by these agronomic improvements and varietal shifts.

Honduras, one of Central America’s leading coffee producers and a top global exporter of Arabica, concentrates its crop in six key regions: Copan, Montecillos, Opalaca, Comayagua, El Paraiso, and Agalta. Elevations range between 1,000 and 1,600 meters above sea level, where Bourbon, Catuaí, Caturra, and Typica thrive. Looking ahead, the production forecast for Honduras coffee in 2026 continues to inform regional agricultural strategies.

Production outlook and leaf rust pressure

As of March 2026, coffee leaf rust incidence increased from 7.57 percent to 8.44 percent nationally, triggering a Level 4 yellow alert. The rise reflects higher lesion counts and leaf damage, supported by favorable environmental conditions and the unrestricted movement of harvest workers. Despite localized pressures, overall national rust levels remain relatively contained due to dry season conditions in major producing regions. This has important implications for the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026, since disease pressure can impact yields.

Table 1: Honduras coffee production & export forecasts (million 60 kg bags)
Marketing year Production Exports Ending stocks
MY 2023/24 (actual) 5.00 4.77 0.081
MY 2024/25 (revised) 5.20 4.96 0.178
MY 2025/26 (forecast) 5.53 5.03 0.435
MY 2026/27 (projection) 6.03 5.50 0.707
Table 2: Coffee leaf rust incidence by selected departments (March 2026)
Department Incidence (%)
Comayagua 14.08%
Cortes 12.49%
Santa Bárbara 11.17%
Yoro 10.08%
El Paraíso 9.81%
Intibucá 9.27%
Copán 6.76%

Earlier survey data from April 2025 indicated that 16.67 percent of sampled farms had medium rust incidence (5 to 10 percent), 7.80 percent had high incidence (10 to 15 percent), and 21.63 percent recorded very high incidence above 15 percent. Approximately 5 percent of the current crop remained unharvested as of March 2026, while 44 percent was still in the supply chain awaiting export or processing. This context is significant for anyone examining the country’s 2026 coffee production forecast in Honduras.

Prices, Brazil and market volatility

As of late March 2026, coffee reference prices have shown downward pressure, driven by improved global supply expectations and forecasts of a large Brazilian harvest. While prices have eased from early 2026 highs, they remain volatile. Retail prices have not yet adjusted significantly, reflecting typical lags due to contracts and inventories. In summary, the Honduras coffee production outlook for 2026 is closely tied to international price volatility and market forces.

Weather risks in Brazil, including the potential for early frosts in key producing regions, may place upward pressure on global prices in 2026. However, continued market volatility and rising production costs — including higher diesel prices and fertilizer supply uncertainty linked to the Persian Gulf conflict — may constrain producer margins. Price developments will depend on frost events in Brazil between May and July 2026, crop performance in Vietnam and Colombia, and currency movements, especially the BRL USD exchange rate. Meanwhile, these variables are monitored by analysts as they project the 2026 Honduras coffee production forecast.

Exports grow 7.5%, average price eases

Honduran coffee exports are projected to reach 5.03 million bags in 2025/26, a 7.47 percent increase from the revised 4.96 million bags in 2024/25. For 2026/27, exports are forecast to rise another 9 percent to 5.50 million bags. As of April 2026, Honduras had already exported 3.17 million bags, a 38 percent increase from 2.30 million bags during the same period in 2024/25. The average export price was $439.47 per 60 kg bag, a 2.70 percent decrease from $451.70, but total export value jumped 33 percent to $1.39 billion. These impressive results play a pivotal role in shaping the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 and future export trends.

Sales contracts for 2025/26 totaled 4.10 million bags, up 27 percent year on year. Honduras has expanded market access, including under its free trade agreement with South Korea, now the eleventh largest export market for coffee. Globally, Honduras ranks as the eighth largest coffee exporter, the third largest in the Americas, and the largest in Central America. Finally, the Honduras coffee production forecast 2026 continues to be an important reference for market participants and policy decisions.

Table 3: Top destinations for Honduran green coffee exports (2025, thousand 60 kg bags)
Country Volume (1,000 bags)
United States 1,476
Germany 983
Belgium 551
Italy 231
Japan 186
Canada 229
Sweden 149
United Kingdom 147

Domestic consumption and rising imports

Coffee consumption in Honduras is projected to increase 9 percent in 2026/27, supported by modest GDP growth of 3.8 to 4 percent. Per capita apparent consumption is estimated at 4 to 5 kilograms per year. The growing presence of coffee bars in shopping malls, gas stations, and supermarkets, along with a young population consuming diverse coffee drinks, drives demand. Keurig coffee pods and machines are a new trend sold at supermarket chains. It is clear that changing consumption patterns also play into the nation’s coffee production forecast 2026 for Honduras.

Despite being a major producer, Honduras imports coffee to meet domestic demand for soluble coffee and lower cost blends. Total imports are projected to reach 160,000 bags in 2026/27, up 16.8 percent from 137,000 bags in 2025/26. In 2024/25, green coffee bean imports totaled 96,216 bags, primarily from Nicaragua (91,731 bags). Soluble coffee imports from October 2024 through February 2025 reached 30,992 bags, up from 27,516 bags the previous year. Key suppliers included Mexico, the United States, Colombia, Guatemala, India, Malaysia, and Costa Rica. Market dynamics that affect imports are increasingly relevant for the Honduras coffee production forecast looking ahead to 2026.

Differentiated coffee: a sharp shift in early 2025/26

During the 2024/25 harvest, 2.6 million 60 kg bags of differentiated coffee (certified and specialty) were sold, accounting for 55 percent of total exports. The five leading certifications were UTZ, Organic, Fair Trade/Organic, 4C, and Rainforest Alliance. However, preliminary data for 2025/26 shows a significant decline: differentiated coffee fell to 37 percent of total volume, or 1.24 million bags exported to date. This 15 percentage point drop may reflect timing of shipments, production challenges, or evolving market dynamics. Final figures will determine if this is a temporary fluctuation or a sustained trend. The results for differentiated segments will ultimately affect 2026 Honduras coffee production forecast calculations.

Table 4: Differentiated coffee production (thousand 60 kg bags, harvest seasons)
Harvest season Differentiated coffee Total harvest % participation
2019/20 3,020 5,506 55%
2020/21 3,220 5,873 55%
2021/22 2,523 4,701 54%
2022/23 3,087 5,342 58%
2023/24 2,610 4,687 56%
2024/25 2,436 4,804 52%
2025/26* 1,242 3,325 37%
* preliminary figures to April 2026. Source: IHCAFE

Specialty coffee in Honduras is typically grown above 3,000 feet. Currently, specialty coffees are produced under 22 programs including UTZ, 4C, Rainforest Alliance, Organic, Bird Friendly, Starbucks C.A.F.E. Practices, and Cup of Excellence. The overall quality of exported coffee in 2025/26 was classified as 49 percent Strictly High Grown (SHG), 43 percent High Grade (HG), and 9 percent Standard Grade (STD). With specialty coffee trends evolving, analysts will adjust the Honduras coffee production and exports forecast for 2026 accordingly.

Table 5: Quality exports in MY 2025/26 (60 kg bags, to date)
Quality grade Volume (bags) Average price (USD) Share of volume
SHG (Strictly High Grown) 1,618,979 $440.19 49%
HG (High Grade) 1,420,051 $448.27 43%
SL (Screen size >18) 286,479 $361.44 9%

Small producers and policy support

Many small and medium coffee producers face financial constraints, with limited access to credit. According to IHCAFE data for 2024/25, 86,895 small farmers harvested 179,271 hectares and produced 2.63 million bags. Medium producers (6,359 farmers) produced 1.66 million bags, and 374 large farmers produced 515,533 bags. Their contributions are notable in the broader context of the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026.

Table 6: Producers by size, area harvested and production (2024/25)
Farmer type Farmers registered Area harvested (Ha) Production (60 kg bags)
Small 86,895 179,271 2,627,164
Medium 6,359 85,040 1,661,733
Large 374 21,246 515,533

The government has implemented several measures to support the sector, including a sales tax exemption on coffee (Decree 352 2022) that provides fiscal relief of approximately $183 million. IHCAFE’s “Renew without stopping Production” program supports 33,000 producers covering 250,000 blocks. A climate change policy aims to foster resilience through six five year phases from 2022 to 2050. The National Coffee Council, the highest regulatory body, guides policy on production, climate change, labor, and gender inclusion. The sector adopted a Gender Inclusion Policy in 2021. Policy initiatives such as these directly impact Honduras coffee production forecasts for 2026 and beyond.

As of March 2026, IHCAFE continues providing technical support to help growers meet the European Union Deforestation Regulation, aiming to reduce deforestation tied to agricultural production and foster environmentally responsible supply chains. Overall, actions to comply with international standards also influence the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 as the industry adapts to global changes.

Methodological note: All figures are based on the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report “Coffee Annual – Tegucigalpa – Honduras – HO2026-0002” published April 29, 2026. Marketing years (MY) run from October to September. Differentiated coffee includes certified and specialty coffees. No data from outside the report has been used. Projections for MY 2026/27 are preliminary and subject to revision.

 

Historic Drop in Certified Coffee Stocks Threatens Global Market Stability

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

The global coffee market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as certified coffee stocks fall to their lowest level in years, signaling tightening supply chains and growing pressure on prices. According to the International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) September 2025 Coffee Market Report, both Arabica and Robusta certified inventories saw steep declines, raising alarm among traders and producers about the sustainability of global coffee flows.

The ICO reported that certified Arabica stocks in the United States dropped by 19.3%, falling to 0.66 million 60-kg bags, while certified Robusta stocks in London declined by 4.3% to 1.08 million bags. The organization described these figures as a “clear indicator of tightening supply,” warning that if this trend continues, it could lead to further market volatility and stronger upward pressure on coffee prices into 2026.

The decline in certified stocks comes at a time when global coffee prices are already at a two-year high. The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 324.62 US cents per pound in September — up 9.3% from August and 25.4% year-on-year. This sustained rally reflects a combination of supply shortages, export delays, and speculative momentum, according to the report. Analysts also note that the depletion of certified stocks is a major driver behind the surge, as roasters and traders draw down existing inventories to meet ongoing demand.

In Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, the situation remains complex. Despite a healthy harvest, export performance continues to weaken, with the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) reporting a tenth consecutive monthly decline. Shipments have been slowed by logistical congestion at the Port of Santos and delayed customs procedures, resulting in slower replenishment of certified stocks. Much of the crop, although harvested, remains stored domestically awaiting transport — a factor that continues to strain global availability.

Colombia, the world’s top producer of washed Arabica, is also struggling with weather disruptions in key coffee-growing regions and infrastructure setbacks that have limited its export capacity. Meanwhile, Vietnam, the largest Robusta supplier, has maintained stable production but faces supply chain bottlenecks that delay shipments to major consuming markets, particularly Europe and North America.

The ICO emphasized that these combined factors have created a fragile equilibrium in which global coffee demand remains resilient, but the flow of physical supply is insufficient to keep inventories stable. “The rate of certified stock depletion is now nearing levels not seen since 2021,” the report warned, adding that the balance between consumption and production is increasingly difficult to maintain amid logistical and policy-related challenges.

Trade policies are adding further complications. The United States’ 50% import tariff on coffee, still in place as of September 2025, continues to weigh heavily on trade volumes. Many importers have avoided purchasing new shipments at elevated costs, instead relying on existing certified reserves. This has accelerated the drawdown of available stock, pushing certified inventories closer to critical thresholds.

At the same time, monetary policy decisions have influenced speculative activity across commodity markets. The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut — its first since 2024 — triggered renewed investor interest in coffee futures, pushing prices even higher. The report noted that this speculative demand has intensified the pressure on physical stocks, as traders anticipate continued price gains and hedge against potential shortages.

The ICO also pointed to regulatory uncertainty in Europe as a factor contributing to the decline in certified inventories. Exporters are recalibrating their shipment schedules due to the forthcoming EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which mandates traceability and geolocation data for coffee imports. While the European Commission has signaled a potential one-year delay in enforcement, many traders are opting to postpone shipments until compliance frameworks are clarified, further limiting short-term supply availability.

Market analysts caution that the combination of depleted stocks, policy delays, and persistent trade restrictions could lead to supply shortages in early 2026 if current trends persist. “The market is walking a fine line,” one analyst cited by the ICO noted. “With certified inventories at record lows, even minor disruptions — whether from weather, logistics, or policy shifts — could have an outsized impact on prices.”

This tightening supply scenario has already been reflected in the futures markets. ICE Arabica prices in New York rose by 11.5% in September, averaging 366.31 US cents per pound, while ICE Robusta prices in London climbed 8.9% to 197.56 US cents per pound. The price differential between the two markets widened by 14.7% to 168.75 US cents per pound, the highest level recorded in 2025. The ICO said the widening gap highlights uneven stock conditions and structural imbalances between Arabica and Robusta markets.

Furthermore, intra-day price volatility increased to 13.8%, compared to 10.6% in August, underscoring how thin inventories amplify market sensitivity to short-term developments. The report noted that low stock levels make the market more reactive to speculative trading, currency fluctuations, and export data releases.

Despite these challenges, some optimism remains tied to upcoming harvests in Central America and East Africa, which could provide temporary relief to global supplies. However, the ICO cautioned that recovery will likely be slow, as high fertilizer and labor costs continue to limit farm investment and productivity gains across several producing countries.

Ultimately, the ICO concluded that the historic decline in certified coffee stocks represents more than a temporary fluctuation — it reflects a deep structural imbalance in the global coffee economy. Persistent trade barriers, logistical delays, and delayed regulatory decisions have combined to restrict availability at a time when global demand remains robust. The report warned that unless export performance and stock replenishment improve by early 2026, the market could face an extended period of high prices and intensified volatility.

As the global coffee sector navigates this critical juncture, the ICO urged stakeholders — from producers to importers — to focus on efficient supply chain management, sustainable farming practices, and regulatory coordination to restore stability to the market. Without such measures, the world’s coffee supply chain risks remaining on edge well into the coming year.

Global Coffee Stocks Fall to Lowest Level Since April 2024

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai, September 4, 2025 (Qahwa World) – The International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) August 2025 report has revealed a sharp decline in global coffee stocks, falling to their lowest level since April 2024. The drop in inventories comes just weeks after prices reached a historic high, highlighting a fragile market caught between soaring demand and tightening supply.

According to the ICO, certified Arabica stocks held at the New York Exchange dropped 7.9% to 0.77 million bags, marking a 16-month low. Robusta inventories at the London Exchange also fell by 4.6%, standing at 1.13 million bags. The simultaneous reduction across both major coffee types signals a broad squeeze on available supply.

Why Stocks Are Falling

Analysts point to several reasons behind the decline:

  • Weaker export flows – Global green coffee exports fell for the sixth consecutive month in July 2025, tightening supplies into key markets.

  • Crop concerns – Brazil, the world’s top producer, reported larger bean sizes but weaker density, which reduced overall yield estimates.

  • Climate risks – A frost in Brazil earlier this year damaged an estimated half a million bags.

  • Regulatory pressure – European roasters have been stockpiling ahead of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) that comes into force at the end of 2025, drawing beans out of certified warehouses into private storage.

Connection to Soaring Prices

The fall in stocks coincided with a dramatic rise in prices. In August, the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) climbed 14.6% to 297.05 US cents per pound, the highest since 2024. With inventories shrinking, the likelihood of further price volatility is increasing, especially if supply disruptions persist.

Regional Dynamics

  • South America posted the steepest decline, with exports down 18.5%, driven by a 28.6% fall in Brazil.

  • Asia & Oceania moved in the opposite direction, growing exports 22.7%, led by Vietnam (+29.4%) and Indonesia (+20.4%).

  • Africa also contributed positively, with exports rising 4.4%, thanks to strong performance in Uganda (+51.4%) and Ethiopia (+12.5%).

  • Mexico & Central America recorded moderate growth of 7.2%, helping to diversify global supply, though not enough to offset South America’s losses.

What It Means for the Market

Industry experts warn that the current drawdown in stocks leaves the coffee market more vulnerable to external shocks. Further weather events in Brazil or Vietnam could deepen the supply gap, while the EUDR may slow exports to Europe. Rising shipping and labor costs add another layer of pressure on the supply chain, feeding into higher costs for roasters and consumers alike.

Outlook

The ICO emphasized that stock levels will remain a critical indicator for the market in the coming months. Any further declines could trigger another round of price surges, prolonging uncertainty for producers, traders, and consumers. With prices already at historic highs and inventories at multi-year lows, coffee is entering one of its most volatile periods in recent memory