Tag: Coffee Market

Luckin Coffee’s Major Investor Weighs Acquisition of Costa Coffee

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Beijing — Qahwa World

The majority stakeholder of Luckin Coffee, Centurium Capital, is reportedly considering a bid to acquire Costa Coffee from The Coca-Cola Company, in what could become one of the most significant international coffee transactions in recent years.

According to sources familiar with the matter, the Beijing-based private equity firm is evaluating whether to proceed with an offer for the British coffee chain. The discussions come as Coca-Cola continues to review its investment in Costa Coffee, which it purchased from Whitbread in 2019 for $4.9 billion.

Coca-Cola Reassesses Its Coffee Strategy

Coca-Cola began exploring potential buyers for Costa in August 2025, signaling a possible retreat from its café business. Speaking to investors, CEO James Quincey admitted that Costa’s financial performance “is not where we wanted it to be,” adding that the company was “reflecting on the right way forward” for the brand.

Reports indicate that Coca-Cola has received fewer bids than anticipated, with Costa’s current valuation estimated at less than $2 billion — less than half of what the beverage giant originally paid.

Centurium Capital’s Expanding Coffee Footprint

Centurium Capital has been a major force behind Luckin Coffee’s resurgence. The Chinese private equity firm first invested in Luckin during its early funding rounds and became instrumental in stabilizing the company following its 2020 accounting scandal. In 2021, Centurium led a $260 million private placement that helped Luckin restructure debt and resolve issues with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

By January 2022, Centurium had become Luckin’s controlling shareholder, holding over 50% of the company’s voting rights. Under its direction, Luckin has grown rapidly, operating more than 26,000 stores across China, surpassing Starbucks in store count and establishing itself as the country’s leading coffee brand.

Industry analysts suggest that acquiring Costa could give Centurium a strong international platform, combining Luckin’s digital strength and value-based strategy in Asia with Costa’s established brand presence in Europe and the Middle East.

Costa Coffee’s Global Operations

Founded in London in 1971, Costa Coffee today operates around 4,100 coffee shops across 38 countries and manages nearly 17,000 self-service machines under the Costa Express brand. The company has also expanded into the ready-to-drink (RTD) sector, with products distributed through supermarkets and vending platforms worldwide.

However, under Coca-Cola’s ownership, Costa has struggled to achieve consistent profitability and adapt to evolving market dynamics. Analysts say that its integration within a soft-drink-focused corporation limited the brand’s agility in competing with fast-growing specialty coffee chains.

Other Interested Bidders

Besides Centurium Capital, Bain Capital, investor in Gail’s Bakery and Pizza Express, and TDR Capital, owner of Asda supermarkets, have also shown interest in acquiring Costa, according to Bloomberg.

If Centurium proceeds, the deal would mark a rare case of a Chinese investment group acquiring a major Western coffee brand, highlighting China’s growing influence in the global coffee market and reinforcing the country’s ambition to shape the next chapter of the café industry.

Dutch Bros Surges After Strong Q3 Earnings and Upgraded Outlook

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Dutch Bros (NASDAQ: BROS) reported impressive third-quarter results, surpassing Wall Street expectations for both earnings and revenue. The drive-thru coffee chain posted adjusted earnings of $0.19 per share, topping forecasts of $0.17, on revenue of $423.6 million versus the expected $413.6 million.

Revenue jumped 25.2 percent year-on-year, rising from $338.2 million in Q3 2024, while net income more than doubled to $27.3 million from $12.6 million. Same-store sales advanced 7.4 percent at company-operated shops and 5.7 percent system-wide. Dutch Bros also opened 38 new locations across 17 states, expanding its total footprint to 1,081 stores.

Chief Executive Officer Christine Barone highlighted the company’s resilience, stating that strong momentum through October prompted management to raise full-year guidance for both total revenue and same-store sales growth.

Despite the surge in sales, gross profit fell 8.5 percent year-over-year to $82.4 million, signaling higher costs for labor, commodities, or logistics. Nonetheless, operating income grew 27.6 percent to $41.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 22.3 percent to $78 million, suggesting that scale and operational efficiency continue to buffer inflationary headwinds.

Key Financial Highlights

Revenue: $423.6 M (+25.2 % YoY)

Adjusted EPS: $0.19 (+11.8 % YoY)

Net Income: $27.3 M (+115.8 % YoY)

Operating Income: $41.5 M (+27.6 % YoY)

Adjusted EBITDA: $78 M (+22.3 % YoY)

Company-operated same-store sales: +7.4 %

System-wide same-store sales: +5.7 %

The raised guidance underscores management’s confidence in the brand’s growth trajectory. However, investors will closely watch gross-margin trends and the sustainability of same-store sales as Dutch Bros continues its aggressive expansion. Persistent cost pressures may require future pricing or operational adjustments, but the company’s accelerating profitability suggests its strategy is gaining traction.

Weather Extremes Drive Coffee Prices to New Highs

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices strengthened midweek as extreme weather patterns across major growing regions continued to fuel fears of reduced global supply. Arabica futures for December delivery climbed more than 2%, reaching their highest level in a week and a half, while January Robusta futures also recorded modest gains.

In Brazil — the world’s leading Arabica producer — unusually dry conditions have persisted in Minas Gerais, where rainfall reached only three-quarters of the seasonal average by the end of October. The prolonged dryness follows an even drier previous week and has raised concerns over the next crop’s development. Meanwhile, in Southeast Asia, Typhoon Kalmaegi is expected to make landfall in southern Vietnam, threatening coffee plantations in key Robusta-growing provinces.

Inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) continued to shrink, adding upward pressure on prices. Arabica reserves dropped to their lowest point in over a year and a half, while Robusta stocks also declined. The drawdown follows reduced U.S. imports from Brazil, where a 50% tariff has sharply slowed trade. Since Brazil supplies nearly one-third of the unroasted coffee used in the U.S., buyers are now facing tighter availability. However, recent remarks by Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump hint at possible progress toward resolving trade tensions, which could influence upcoming market movements.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently increased the probability of a La Niña event to 71% for the final quarter of 2025. Such conditions often bring hotter and drier weather to Brazil, potentially impacting the 2026/27 harvest if the pattern strengthens.

At the same time, Vietnam — the world’s largest Robusta exporter — continues to expand its output. Official data shows exports rising by more than 10% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association expects production for 2025/26 to reach a four-year high if favorable weather persists.

Global trade figures also suggest sufficient overall supply. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently reported a slight annual increase in coffee exports, while Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, revised its 2025 Arabica estimate downward due to dry weather.

According to projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, world coffee production for 2025/26 could hit a record level of nearly 179 million bags, driven mainly by higher Robusta yields. Arabica output, however, is expected to dip slightly. Ending stocks are projected to rise by almost 5%, suggesting that despite short-term volatility, the market remains well supplied — though increasingly sensitive to shifting weather patterns.

US Roasters Tear Through Coffee Stocks Waiting for Brazil Trade Deal

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New York – Qahwa World

Coffee roasters in the United States are depleting their stockpiles while waiting for the outcome of ongoing U.S.–Brazil trade negotiations — talks that could determine whether they must continue paying higher prices for alternative coffee sources.

Brazil, which supplies about one-third of the beans consumed by the world’s largest coffee market, has been effectively priced out of the U.S. since August, when President Donald Trump’s administration imposed a 50% import tariff on Brazilian coffee — a move widely viewed as politically motivated.

The tariff was seen as retaliation against Brazil’s left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, following tensions with the U.S. over his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro. The measure has disrupted the $340-billion U.S. coffee industry, leaving importers with stranded shipments, roasters cancelling deliveries, and consumers paying up to 40% more for coffee.

Industry estimates suggest U.S. coffee stockpiles will reach minimal levels by December. Some importers were forced to pay the 50% duty on cargoes booked before the tariff, while others redirected shipments to avoid it.

Steven Walter Thomas, owner of U.S. importer Lucatelli Coffee, said the tariff is “punitive, political, and personal — between Trump and Lula.” His company stored $720,000 worth of Brazilian coffee in a bonded warehouse in Florida to delay import taxes, while diverting some shipments to Canada to avoid the tariff, despite higher transport costs.

The cost surge has also squeezed major players such as Starbucks, whose CEO Cathy Smith said high coffee prices will remain a “headwind” through at least mid-2026.

Smaller roasters are feeling the pressure too. Downeast Coffee Roasters in Rhode Island said it managed to cancel some Brazilian orders but still faces rising costs for alternatives. Cancellation fees reached $20–$25 per 60-kg bag, on cargoes worth about $250,000 per container.

With Brazil largely off the U.S. market, prices for substitutes from Colombia, Mexico, and Central America have risen around 10%, while Brazilian prices have fallen about 5%.

Retail coffee prices in the U.S. climbed 41% year-on-year in September, reaching an average of $9.14 per pound, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — a key driver of food inflation. Tight supply and record-high Arabica futures on the ICE exchange continue to fuel the trend.

“I’m not looking too much into brands anymore — I’m going for the deals,” said Sherryl Legyin, a cashier from New Jersey.
“It used to be $6 or $7, now it’s $11,” added travel agent Yasmin Vazquez.

Traders estimate U.S. stocks at about 4 million 60-kg bags, likely to drop to 2.5–3 million by December — close to minimum operational levels. The U.S. typically consumes 25 million bags per year, with 8 million coming from Brazil.

President Lula said he remains optimistic that a trade deal with Washington could come “faster than anyone thinks.”
Trump responded cautiously: “I don’t know if anything’s going to happen, but we’ll see.”

Until then, the price of an American cup of coffee is expected to stay high.

Falling Inventories and Trade Tensions Revive Momentum in Coffee Prices

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Qahwa World – Qahwa World

Coffee prices rose on Wednesday as shrinking ICE inventories and ongoing trade tensions between the United States and Brazil brought renewed momentum to the global coffee market.

December Arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed up +2.80 (+0.72%), while January Robusta coffee (RMF26) finished +145 (+3.25%) higher.

ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 446,475 bags, while Robusta stocks dropped to a 3.25-month low of 6,111 lots. This sharp decline follows the 50% tariffs imposed by the United States on imports of Brazilian coffee, prompting many American buyers to cancel new contracts. Brazil typically supplies about one-third of the U.S. unroasted coffee, tightening domestic supply.

Earlier this week, forecasts of rain in Brazil temporarily pressured prices. Meteorological agency Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais—the country’s largest Arabica-producing state—received only 0.3 mm of rainfall in the week ending October 24, or just 1% of the historical average. While upcoming rainfall could ease dry conditions, concerns remain about the impact on the critical flowering period for the 2026/27 crop.

Speculation is also mounting that the United States may lift tariffs on Brazilian coffee. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he had a “surprisingly good” meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, adding that a “definitive solution” on trade could be reached within days.

Last week, Arabica coffee prices hit an 8.5-month high amid fears that prolonged drought in Brazil’s growing regions could threaten the 2026/27 harvest. According to Bloomberg’s Brazil Weather Analysis, Minas Gerais has received only 70% of its average monthly rainfall over the past month.

Prices also gained support after the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) raised the probability of a La Niña weather pattern to 71% between October and December, a development that could intensify dry conditions across Brazil and further impact production.

Meanwhile, Robusta coffee faced pressure from an increase in Vietnamese supply. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports rose 10.9% year-on-year between January and September 2025 to 1.23 million metric tons. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) forecasts that 2025/26 coffee production could rise 10% if weather conditions remain favorable, reaching 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags) — a four-year high.

At the global level, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that world coffee exports for the current marketing year (October–August) increased 0.2% year-on-year to 127.92 million bags, indicating adequate global supply.

In Brazil, crop forecasting agency Conab revised its 2025 Arabica coffee crop estimate down by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags, while lowering its total coffee production estimate by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS), global coffee production for 2025/26 is projected to increase 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.68 million bags, with Arabica output expected to decline 1.7% to 97.02 million bags and Robusta production to rise 7.9% to 81.66 million bags. Brazil’s output is projected to increase 0.5% to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s could grow 6.9% to 31 million bags.

Global ending stocks are forecast to rise 4.9% to 22.82 million bags, compared with 21.75 million bags in 2024/25.

Easing Weather Threats in Brazil and Vietnam Weigh on Coffee Prices

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices dropped sharply on Thursday after giving up early gains, with December Arabica down 2.54% and November Robusta falling 3.9%.

The decline came as weather conditions improved in two of the world’s largest coffee-producing countries. Forecasts from Brazil’s Climatempo predicted weekend rains across the coffee-growing regions, while Vietnam’s weather office reduced the likelihood of heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Fengshen over the Central Highlands—its main coffee belt—lessening the risk of crop damage.

In Brazil, prices had earlier rallied on concerns over severe drought during the flowering phase of coffee trees, which is critical for the 2026/27 harvest. The state of Minas Gerais, the country’s largest Arabica-producing region, received only about 70% of its average rainfall in the past month.

In contrast, Robusta prices faced downward pressure following data from Vietnam’s National Statistics Office showing that the country’s coffee exports from January to September 2025 rose +10.9% year-on-year to 1.23 MMT. Production for 2025/26 is forecast to rise +6% to 1.76 MMT (approximately 29.4 million bags), the highest level in four years.

Lower inventories on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) provided only partial support. ICE-monitored Arabica stocks fell to a 19-month low of 465,910 bags, while Robusta stocks hit a 3-month low of 6,141 lots.

Optimism surrounding trade talks between the United States and Brazil also weighed on prices. Reports suggest discussions may lead to the removal of the 50% tariffs currently imposed on Brazilian imports, a move that could ease supply constraints in the U.S. market.

Meanwhile, International Coffee Organization (ICO) data showed that global coffee exports for the current 2024/25 season (October–August) rose +0.2% to 127.92 million bags, indicating ample supply.

Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab lowered its 2025 harvest estimate to 55.2 million bags (-0.9% from May), reducing Arabica output to 35.2 million bags (-4.9%).

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee production in 2025/26 is expected to rise +2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags, driven by a +7.9% increase in Robusta to 81.65 million bags, despite a -1.7% decline in Arabica output.

Trading company Volcafe projects a global Arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26—wider than the 5.5 million-bag shortfall recorded in 2024/25 and marking the fifth consecutive year of supply deficits.

Rains in Brazil and Tariff Hopes Shake Global Coffee Markets

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Dubai – Qahwa World

The global coffee market experienced another week of turbulence as changing weather conditions in Brazil and renewed hopes for a U.S.–Brazil trade deal sent Arabica prices on a volatile ride. December Arabica futures opened the week of October 13 at 373.20 cents per pound, marking the weekly low, climbed to 418.50 cents on Wednesday, and closed Friday at 397.45 cents per pound. The 45.30-cent range reflected a market increasingly driven by both climate and political signals.

The week began with upward momentum, supported by a stronger Brazilian Real and dry weather forecasts across southeastern Brazil. However, optimism faded midweek as rainfall finally reached the coffee-growing regions. Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia reported significant precipitation in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest Arabica-producing state, with further showers expected through the week. The long-awaited rains prompted traders to liquidate long positions, easing the price rally that had dominated previous sessions.

Market sentiment shifted further when U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to meet Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to discuss trade cooperation. The news sparked speculation that the two countries might resolve the ongoing tariff dispute affecting coffee exports. Brazilian coffee currently faces a 50% import tariff in the U.S., and even the prospect of relief was enough to trigger additional selling pressure. Analysts cautioned that, while both governments have expressed willingness to negotiate, no official policy change has yet been confirmed, leaving American buyers facing the same challenges in securing Brazilian coffee.

In Brazil, farmers welcomed the long-awaited rainfall after weeks of drought, though experts noted that one week of showers will not immediately reverse months of stress endured by coffee trees. The timing and consistency of upcoming rainfall will be critical to support flowering and the next harvest cycle. While weather conditions dominated origin discussions, another noteworthy development came from West Africa. Liberia announced plans to introduce Coffee Liberica as its national flagship crop under the FAO’s One Country One Priority Product initiative, expected to launch in December 2025. The program aims to elevate the indigenous Liberica species to global recognition alongside Arabica and Robusta, potentially revitalizing Liberia’s agribusiness sector by creating jobs, attracting investment, and expanding its international presence. Although Liberica remains unfamiliar to many consumers, industry observers believe this move could generate renewed curiosity and demand for the rare variety.

In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index traded within a narrow range as traders monitored political developments and awaited signals from the Federal Reserve, which entered its communication blackout period ahead of its next policy meeting. Concerns about a potential government shutdown in the United States persisted but lacked the urgency seen earlier in the month. Both the British Pound and the Euro strengthened modestly against the Dollar as global markets remained steady. By the end of the week, GBP/USD stood at 1.34 and EUR/USD at 1.165, marking a calm close to an otherwise eventful week in the coffee and currency markets.

Dubai: The Next Global Coffee Trade Nexus

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Dubai — Qahwa World

Dubai is rapidly establishing itself as one of the world’s most influential players in the international coffee trade. Once renowned for its dominance in gold, oil, and logistics, the emirate is now redefining itself as a global coffee hub connecting producing countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America with consuming markets across Europe, the Middle East, and North America. With its strategic location, advanced infrastructure, and thriving specialty coffee culture, Dubai is emerging as the next global nexus of the coffee industry.

Coffee is far more than a daily beverage — it is a $200 billion global economy that sustains over 25 million smallholder farmers and fuels more than two billion cups consumed every day. Yet the industry is under intense pressure. Climate change, volatile prices, supply chain disruptions, and changing consumer tastes have reshaped global trade dynamics. Amid these challenges, Dubai has positioned itself as a stabilising force that combines innovation, transparency, and accessibility to create new opportunities for producers and traders worldwide.

The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) has been at the forefront of this transformation through its state-of-the-art Coffee Centre located in the Jebel Ali Free Zone. The facility offers integrated services for roasting, storage, packaging, logistics, and trade, serving more than 300 members across the global coffee value chain. Designed on a pay-as-you-go model, it allows small producers and independent traders to access world markets without the burden of fixed commitments. According to Mike Butler, Associate Director of Coffee at DMCC, this flexible approach “makes the Coffee Centre extremely friendly for small businesses” and allows them to scale as they grow.

“Dubai is defining the global trend in specialty coffee today,” said Garfield Kerr, President of the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) and founder of Mokha1450. “In Dubai, coffee functions like wine elsewhere — it’s a cultural experience built around craftsmanship and taste.” Over the past decade, independent roasteries and boutique cafés have replaced international chains across the city. Consumers have become increasingly informed about freshness, roast profiles, and sustainability, pushing the market toward higher quality and transparency.

Dubai’s geographical advantage is another factor behind its success. Situated almost exactly between the world’s top producing nations — Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, and Ethiopia — the emirate offers unmatched access to global shipping routes. Its proximity to East Africa, one of the fastest-growing specialty coffee regions, gives it a natural advantage over traditional European hubs. “If you map the world’s major coffee producers, Dubai sits almost exactly in the centre,” Butler explained. “It’s only a matter of time before Dubai challenges Hamburg as the global leader in coffee trade.”

The DMCC Coffee Centre’s Tradeflow platform has introduced a new level of digital transparency to an industry often criticised for its opacity. Every batch traded through the system is physically verified and stored within the centre’s temperature-controlled facility, ensuring quality and trust between producers and buyers. By integrating blockchain-based traceability and tokenised finance options, DMCC has reduced intermediaries and opened new financing channels for smallholder farmers. Its partnership with the African Fine Coffees Association (AFCA) further supports African producers through logistics, warehousing, and buyer introductions, helping them retain greater value from their exports.

Dubai’s rise as a coffee capital is also cultural. The World of Coffee Dubai exhibition, held annually at the Dubai World Trade Centre, has become a magnet for industry leaders and enthusiasts alike. The 2025 edition drew nearly 17,000 visitors and 2,000 exhibitors, hosting auctions of the world’s rarest coffees and showcasing 131 debut brands — three-quarters of them international. “The world showed up,” said Kerr. “The coffee innovation coming out of Dubai is now influencing global trends.”

As global coffee trade evolves, sustainability has become central to Dubai’s vision. The emirate is investing in climate-smart agriculture, low-carbon logistics, and advanced digital systems that track environmental compliance. Experts warn that by 2050, up to half of existing coffee-growing land could become unsuitable due to rising temperatures, making adaptation essential. Initiatives such as agroforestry, drought-resistant varieties, and circular-economy recycling of coffee by-products are gaining momentum.

Through innovation and technology, Dubai is setting new standards for transparency and sustainability in coffee trading. Artificial intelligence now supports quality monitoring, while blockchain ensures traceable supply chains. Companies are exploring compostable packaging, recycling capsules, and transforming used coffee grounds into new products, aligning commerce with environmental responsibility.

“Whether it’s the supermarket, the sports club, or the cinema, coffee standards are rising everywhere,” Butler observed. “Dubai is uniquely positioned to lead this evolution, combining innovation, logistics, and sustainability into one cohesive ecosystem.”

In an era of shifting trade routes and unpredictable markets, Dubai has turned its vision into action. The city’s integration of culture, technology, and commerce is rewriting the rules of how coffee is traded and valued. More than a gateway between continents, Dubai has become the command centre of global coffee commerce — a place where beans, business, and innovation converge to shape the future of one of the world’s most beloved drinks.

Finnish Company Paulig Files Applications to Register Five New Trademarks in Russia

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Dubi – Qahwa World

Finnish coffee producer Paulig has filed applications to register five new trademarks in Russia, according to data available in the Rospatent electronic database.

The applications were submitted on October 15 by OY Gustav Paulig Ab, listed as the official applicant. The company reportedly plans to market ground, instant, and roasted coffee, as well as coffee in bags and capsules, under the new trademarks.

Paulig had previously announced its withdrawal from the Russian market in March 2022, following the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine. By May 2022, the company had completed the sale of its Russian business to Vikas Soin, a private investor from India who acquired Paulig Rus LLC.

Earlier, in November 2021, Paulig had also halted the supply of its popular Santa Maria spices and sauces to Russia, which were part of the company’s broader product portfolio.

Meanwhile, other international brands have taken similar steps. The Spanish group Inditex, which owns Zara and Bershka, has also re-registered its trademarks in Russia, valid until 2035, even though it ceased operations in the country in 2022.

U.S.-Made Coffee Remains More Expensive Than Imports Despite Tariffs

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Throughout 2025, U.S. consumers have witnessed a steady rise in prices across nearly all goods following the administration’s decision to impose tariffs on imported products from global trade partners. Coffee has been no exception, even though the United States relies almost entirely on imported beans to satisfy domestic demand.

Data shows that coffee prices rose by 14.5% between July 2024 and July 2025, while roasted and packaged coffee in supermarkets increased by 21.7% between August 2024 and August 2025. These price hikes are largely attributed to tariffs affecting major coffee-producing nations such as Brazil, which supplies around 40% of the world’s coffee, and Vietnam, the second-largest global exporter.

Despite rising international prices, coffee produced within the United States remains significantly more expensive — a trend unlikely to change. Coffee cultivation requires specific geographical and climatic conditions found only in limited areas of the country, most notably Hawaii, where the right soil and altitude allow for small-scale production of high-quality beans. Even so, the total domestic yield accounts for barely 1% of what Americans consume annually.

Experts in both agriculture and finance agree that the United States lacks the natural and environmental capacity to achieve self-sufficiency in coffee production, even if domestic and imported prices were equal. Consumption far exceeds what local producers can supply, and expanding cultivation faces both economic and ecological constraints. The country’s main coffee-growing regions — Hawaii and Puerto Rico — can only cover a fraction of nationwide demand.

While tariff policies are intended to strengthen local industries and reduce reliance on imports, coffee remains a clear exception. Natural limitations make large-scale domestic production unfeasible, and imported coffee continues to be more affordable and abundant despite higher tariffs. Analysts conclude that the American coffee market will remain deeply tied to global supply chains — particularly to producers in Brazil, Vietnam, and Ethiopia — regardless of future policy changes or tariff increases.

Coffee Prices in Russia Soar to 4,000 Rubles per Kilogram

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Moscow – Qahwa World

Coffee prices in Russia have reached an all-time high, with instant coffee exceeding 4,000 rubles per kilogram for the first time. Ground and roasted coffee have also risen sharply, prompting a noticeable decline in demand of 4–11% across categories.

A Steep Climb Over the Past Year

According to Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the price of natural instant coffee rose to 4,006 rubles per kilogram in September 2025, up from 3,988 rubles in August — an annual increase of 18.3%. The price of ground and roasted coffee jumped to 1,994 rubles per kilogram, marking a 29.3% rise compared with last year. In the foodservice sector, the average cup of coffee now costs 110.9 rubles, up 13.6% year-on-year.

Analytics from Check Index show that between June and August, the average retail price of coffee reached 829 rubles, 12% higher than in 2024. The average receipt for whole-bean coffee grew by 22% to 1,508 rubles per pack, while instant coffee climbed 11% to 461 rubles. Ground coffee increased by 16% to 650 rubles, and coffee capsules saw a 17% rise to 881 rubles per pack.

Why Coffee Is Getting More Expensive

The primary driver of the surge is the global rise in coffee prices. Over the past year, Arabica prices have increased by 1.5 times, while Robusta surged by 40% in just three months.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) attributes this to poor harvest conditions in Brazil, the world’s largest producer. Additional pressure has come from U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee, which encouraged American roasters to stockpile supplies. European roasters are also building reserves ahead of the EU’s deforestation-free supply regulations.

According to Olga Lebedinskaya, Associate Professor at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, domestic factors are also adding strain: inflation, higher transportation costs, international payment difficulties, and rising labor and rental expenses have all contributed to the surge.

“The market has become highly concentrated, leaving few alternative sources,” she explains. In 2025, Brazil overtook Vietnam as Russia’s main coffee supplier. From January to September, Russian companies imported $287.9 million worth of Brazilian coffee beans, nearly double the value imported during the same period in 2024.

Lebedinskaya notes that Laos could become an alternative source, but logistical barriers remain unresolved. “While for Russia this would serve as a niche complement to Brazilian and Vietnamese supplies, for Laos it means diversifying exports without raising costs dramatically,” she said.

What to Expect in 2026

Lebedinskaya forecasts that global price increases will reach Russia’s retail market with a six-month delay, meaning consumers are likely to see new price levels by spring 2026.
“Many coffee shops are already gradually adjusting their prices to soften the impact,” she noted, adding that the traditional tactic of replacing Arabica with cheaper Robusta is no longer effective, as both varieties are now priced nearly equally.

She expects coffee shops to expand their beverage menus by promoting alternatives such as matcha, chicory, and milk-based drinks, while espresso and Americano will likely see the fastest price growth.

According to Alexey Plugov, Director of the Agribusiness Analytical Center AB-Center, 2025 is set to record the highest average global coffee prices since the 1977 coffee crisis. In 2026, he predicts that prices will remain high but fall by 10–15% from 2025 levels.

Tea and Cocoa: Moderate Movements

Rosstat data show that as of October 6, the price of black tea in Russia reached 1,351.9 rubles per kilogram, rising 7.3% over the year — slower than the overall annual inflation rate of 8.1%. According to AB-Center, green tea prices grew by 3.9%, while black tea in bags increased by only 1.6%, averaging 84.7 rubles for a 25-bag pack.

In contrast, cocoa powder prices rose 7.1% year-on-year in September to 1,139 rubles per kilogram. Plugov notes that global tea prices could rise 8–12% in 2026, while cocoa prices may fall 5–10%, though still remaining well above 2022–2023 levels.

Tightening ICE Stocks Push Coffee Futures Higher

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Global coffee futures climbed as stocks registered on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) continued to shrink, tightening availability and pushing traders to reprice risk. December Arabica (KCZ25) rose about 1.78%, while November Robusta (RMX25) gained roughly 1.9%, reflecting increased buying interest across both contracts.

The market has been reacting to a notable decline in ICE-tracked inventories: Arabica holdings dropped to roughly 534,665 bags, a low not seen in about 18 months, and Robusta balances fell to near 6,237 lots, the lowest in a few months. A major contributor to tighter U.S. supplies has been new trade barriers: a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports has prompted some American buyers to cancel or delay contracts, and because Brazil supplies about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee, the effect has been pronounced.

Weather worries have compounded supply concerns. Key Arabica zones in Brazil — notably Minas Gerais — received barely measurable rainfall in early October, raising alarms about the crop’s flowering stage for 2026/27. Forecasters have also increased the odds of a La Niña episode through the October–December window, a pattern that can bring drier conditions to Brazil and add further downside pressure to yields.

Still, the global picture contains mixed signals. The International Coffee Organization reported a small year-on-year rise in exports for the current marketing window, pointing to continuing flows of coffee around the world. At the same time, Vietnam’s strong Robusta shipments — up double digits year-to-date — are helping keep robusta markets supplied.

Brazilian crop agencies and exporters have trimmed recent estimates or recorded export slowdowns: domestic forecasts for Arabica output have been revised lower and export volumes in some months have fallen sharply from year-earlier levels. Conversely, U.S. Department of Agriculture outlooks point to a modest increase in total world production for 2025/26, driven largely by a stronger Robusta harvest, while some trade houses continue to flag an Arabica shortfall.

The interplay of shrinking registered stocks, tariff-driven trade shifts and weather risks leaves prices vulnerable to swings — and keeps market attention trained on inventories, crop forecasts and buyer behavior in the coming weeks.