Tag: Global Coffee Prices

African Coffee: Re-Engineering the 2026 Global Market

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

At a time when global commodity markets are reeling from extreme climate volatility hitting traditional production belts in Brazil and Vietnam, the African continent has emerged in the 2026 season as an indispensable strategic player. This year is more than just a bountiful harvest; it represents a geopolitical turning point in the coffee sector. Africa has successfully bridged a critical global production gap, preventing Arabica and Robusta prices on international exchanges from reaching catastrophic inflationary levels.

  • The Angolan Renaissance

The Angolan experience deserves careful analytical scrutiny. Having invested heavily in its coffee sector over recent years, Angola is no longer a marginal player in 2026. It has become a primary alternative supplier of high-quality Robusta. Land reclamation in regions such as Uíge has not been limited to farming; it included the commissioning of modern centralised processing units that significantly reduced post-harvest losses. This production surge has provided international roasters, particularly in Russia, with a “third option” shielded from the fluctuations of the Vietnamese market, benefiting from preferential shipping rates through recently modernised Atlantic ports.

  • Deciphering the Figures

Looking at raw data, Uganda has achieved an extraordinary milestone with exports nearing 7.05 million bags. This growth, exceeding 50% in certain annual periods, is a direct result of “agricultural intensification” policies and the distribution of high-yield seedlings. In Ethiopia, surpassing the 11 million bag mark amidst logistical challenges is an economic feat. In-depth analysis suggests that Ethiopia capitalised on a “quality premium”. While global Arabica prices surged, Ethiopia offered premium strains with moderate price increases of approximately $2 per kilogram compared to last year—a cost absorbed by quality-hungry markets, providing vital foreign exchange to support the Ethiopian trade balance.

  • Free Trade Logistics

Beyond the farms, a revolution is taking place in supply routes. In 2026, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) began leaving a concrete mark by reducing customs barriers between origin countries and ports. Previously, transit complexities inflated final costs unjustifiably. Today, thanks to digital coordination and standardised procedures, there has been a significant reduction in cross-border transport costs. This logistical saving is the true driver behind African exporters’ ability to offer competitive prices in the Russian market, ensuring African coffee reaches roasting facilities in Moscow and Saint Petersburg with high efficiency and freshness, despite global inflationary pressures.

  • Sustainability as an Economic Shield

African coffee in 2026 is acquiring the status of a “safe haven” for investors. Strains planted in Kenya and Tanzania have shown increased resistance to plant diseases and water scarcity. Economically, this translates to long-term stability. International roasters signing futures contracts with these origins are guaranteed supply continuity, insulated from the recurring climate shocks seen in Latin America. Today, Africa is not just selling its harvest; it is selling “sustainability” as a value-add in a turbulent global market.

 

Note: This analytical reading is based on Q1 2026 performance indicators and preliminary data issued by coffee development authorities in origin countries (such as UCDA and ECTA), taking into account Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fluctuations and futures contracts reflecting growing confidence in the African crop’s ability to balance global supply and demand.

 

South Korea’s Coffee Import Bill Hits Record $1.38 Billion in 2025

Posted on by Qahwa World

SEOUL – Qahwa World

South Korea’s coffee import bill reached a record high in 2025, driven by rising global coffee prices and a weakened local currency, according to data released on Sunday.

According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korea imported more than 2 trillion won (US$1.38 billion) worth of coffee in 2025, marking the first time in the country’s history that coffee imports have surpassed the 2-trillion-won threshold.

Data from the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation showed that the total value of coffee imports climbed to 2.65 trillion won, representing a 41% increase compared to 2024. In U.S. dollar terms, coffee imports rose 35% year on year to US$1.86 billion, up from US$1.38 billion the previous year.

The sharp increase was largely attributed to a surge in global coffee prices, which reached a record high of more than US$4 per pound in February 2025 before easing to around US$3.5 per pound. The impact of higher prices was compounded by the weakness of the Korean won, which traded near multi-year lows for much of the year, pushing up import costs when calculated in local currency.

Despite the rise in import value, coffee import volumes declined slightly. Total coffee imports fell by 46 tons from the previous year to 215,792 tons in 2025, indicating that higher prices and currency effects—rather than increased volumes—were the primary drivers behind the record import bill.

South Korea remains one of Asia’s most active coffee markets, with sustained consumer demand continuing to support imports amid ongoing volatility in global coffee prices.

Trump Administration Considers Coffee Tariff Reduction

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

President Donald Trump indicated in a televised interview that his administration is preparing a policy shift aimed at reducing tariffs on coffee imports, a move expected to influence one of the most widely consumed commodities in the United States. His comments, though brief, come at a moment when households across the country are facing increased pressure from rising food and beverage prices.

In the interview, Trump noted that the upcoming steps will include lowering certain tariffs on coffee, framing the measure as part of a wider initiative to ease living costs for American families. Coffee, which the United States does not produce domestically in commercially viable quantities, remains heavily dependent on global supply chains and import regulations, making it sensitive to trade decisions and tariff schedules.

The president’s statement has drawn significant interest among economic analysts and industry observers who view the potential tariff reduction as a meaningful intervention in a market shaped by fluctuations in global supply, shipping disruptions, and heightened consumer demand. Within Washington, discussions have reportedly been underway regarding adjustments to tariffs on essential goods that form part of Americans’ daily consumption patterns, including coffee.

Reports suggest that the Treasury Department has explored possible frameworks for easing import duties on coffee shipments entering U.S. ports. Supporters of the proposed change argue that reducing these duties could contribute to lower retail prices, provided that broader logistical pressures—such as freight costs and delivery bottlenecks—do not counteract the effect. Businesses operating in the coffee sector, particularly roasters, cafés, and national chains, have long highlighted tariff costs as a contributing factor in pricing decisions.

In parallel to the domestic policy review, the administration is described as engaging in trade dialogues with key coffee-producing countries such as Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador. These discussions reportedly address streamlining import procedures and reducing barriers that have complicated the movement of coffee into the U.S. market. Strengthening these trade channels could not only benefit exporting nations but also help stabilize supply routes that have experienced strain in recent seasons.

The U.S. coffee market has faced sustained price pressures driven by global climate challenges affecting crop yields, elevated transportation costs, and persistent shifts in consumption patterns. Retail prices have climbed steadily, prompting questions from consumers and businesses alike about the underlying factors contributing to the upward trend. Given that the United States relies almost entirely on imported green coffee beans, the sector remains highly exposed to external shocks.

From a political standpoint, the potential tariff reduction may signal an effort by the administration to respond to public concerns about inflation and household affordability. Coffee holds a unique place in daily American life, making any decline in its price particularly visible to voters. Policies that directly influence the cost of essential consumer goods can carry notable political implications.

Internationally, a U.S. decision to ease coffee tariffs could reshape commercial relationships between the United States and producing countries seeking reliable high-volume markets. Depending on the scale and timing of the policy, the move might also influence global coffee price dynamics, especially if exporters adjust their strategies in anticipation of changing demand from American buyers.

As the industry awaits more concrete details, companies across the supply chain—importers, roasters, distributors, and retailers—are assessing how the potential adjustment might affect their operations. Lower tariffs could relieve some of the financial pressure that has accumulated due to higher operating costs, enabling businesses to revisit pricing models and long-term procurement strategies.

Although the president’s remarks did not include a timeline or formal policy outline, they represent the clearest indication to date that the administration is preparing to intervene directly in coffee-related import costs. The statement has already prompted expectations of a forthcoming announcement, as market participants and consumers closely watch Washington for the next development. The outcome of this initiative could have substantial implications for the future of coffee prices and availability across the United States.

Easing Weather Threats in Brazil and Vietnam Weigh on Coffee Prices

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices dropped sharply on Thursday after giving up early gains, with December Arabica down 2.54% and November Robusta falling 3.9%.

The decline came as weather conditions improved in two of the world’s largest coffee-producing countries. Forecasts from Brazil’s Climatempo predicted weekend rains across the coffee-growing regions, while Vietnam’s weather office reduced the likelihood of heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Fengshen over the Central Highlands—its main coffee belt—lessening the risk of crop damage.

In Brazil, prices had earlier rallied on concerns over severe drought during the flowering phase of coffee trees, which is critical for the 2026/27 harvest. The state of Minas Gerais, the country’s largest Arabica-producing region, received only about 70% of its average rainfall in the past month.

In contrast, Robusta prices faced downward pressure following data from Vietnam’s National Statistics Office showing that the country’s coffee exports from January to September 2025 rose +10.9% year-on-year to 1.23 MMT. Production for 2025/26 is forecast to rise +6% to 1.76 MMT (approximately 29.4 million bags), the highest level in four years.

Lower inventories on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) provided only partial support. ICE-monitored Arabica stocks fell to a 19-month low of 465,910 bags, while Robusta stocks hit a 3-month low of 6,141 lots.

Optimism surrounding trade talks between the United States and Brazil also weighed on prices. Reports suggest discussions may lead to the removal of the 50% tariffs currently imposed on Brazilian imports, a move that could ease supply constraints in the U.S. market.

Meanwhile, International Coffee Organization (ICO) data showed that global coffee exports for the current 2024/25 season (October–August) rose +0.2% to 127.92 million bags, indicating ample supply.

Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab lowered its 2025 harvest estimate to 55.2 million bags (-0.9% from May), reducing Arabica output to 35.2 million bags (-4.9%).

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee production in 2025/26 is expected to rise +2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags, driven by a +7.9% increase in Robusta to 81.65 million bags, despite a -1.7% decline in Arabica output.

Trading company Volcafe projects a global Arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26—wider than the 5.5 million-bag shortfall recorded in 2024/25 and marking the fifth consecutive year of supply deficits.

Global Coffee Stocks Fall to Lowest Level Since April 2024

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai, September 4, 2025 (Qahwa World) – The International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) August 2025 report has revealed a sharp decline in global coffee stocks, falling to their lowest level since April 2024. The drop in inventories comes just weeks after prices reached a historic high, highlighting a fragile market caught between soaring demand and tightening supply.

According to the ICO, certified Arabica stocks held at the New York Exchange dropped 7.9% to 0.77 million bags, marking a 16-month low. Robusta inventories at the London Exchange also fell by 4.6%, standing at 1.13 million bags. The simultaneous reduction across both major coffee types signals a broad squeeze on available supply.

Why Stocks Are Falling

Analysts point to several reasons behind the decline:

  • Weaker export flows – Global green coffee exports fell for the sixth consecutive month in July 2025, tightening supplies into key markets.

  • Crop concerns – Brazil, the world’s top producer, reported larger bean sizes but weaker density, which reduced overall yield estimates.

  • Climate risks – A frost in Brazil earlier this year damaged an estimated half a million bags.

  • Regulatory pressure – European roasters have been stockpiling ahead of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) that comes into force at the end of 2025, drawing beans out of certified warehouses into private storage.

Connection to Soaring Prices

The fall in stocks coincided with a dramatic rise in prices. In August, the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) climbed 14.6% to 297.05 US cents per pound, the highest since 2024. With inventories shrinking, the likelihood of further price volatility is increasing, especially if supply disruptions persist.

Regional Dynamics

  • South America posted the steepest decline, with exports down 18.5%, driven by a 28.6% fall in Brazil.

  • Asia & Oceania moved in the opposite direction, growing exports 22.7%, led by Vietnam (+29.4%) and Indonesia (+20.4%).

  • Africa also contributed positively, with exports rising 4.4%, thanks to strong performance in Uganda (+51.4%) and Ethiopia (+12.5%).

  • Mexico & Central America recorded moderate growth of 7.2%, helping to diversify global supply, though not enough to offset South America’s losses.

What It Means for the Market

Industry experts warn that the current drawdown in stocks leaves the coffee market more vulnerable to external shocks. Further weather events in Brazil or Vietnam could deepen the supply gap, while the EUDR may slow exports to Europe. Rising shipping and labor costs add another layer of pressure on the supply chain, feeding into higher costs for roasters and consumers alike.

Outlook

The ICO emphasized that stock levels will remain a critical indicator for the market in the coming months. Any further declines could trigger another round of price surges, prolonging uncertainty for producers, traders, and consumers. With prices already at historic highs and inventories at multi-year lows, coffee is entering one of its most volatile periods in recent memory

Vietnam Coffee Industry Poised to Benefit from Global Price Surge

Posted on by Qahwa World

HANOI – August 30, 2025 (Qahwa World) — Vietnam’s coffee industry is moving to capitalize on soaring global prices, with exports recording strong growth and experts urging greater investment in processing and branding to ensure long-term sustainability.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam’s coffee export turnover reached more than $560 million in July, bringing the total export value for the first seven months of 2025 to $3.6 billion. This represents a 20 percent year-on-year increase and underscores the industry’s ability to leverage favorable international conditions.

The growth comes amid a rally in global coffee prices. A study by the Food and Agriculture Organization reported that prices rose globally by about 40 percent in 2024, driven by unfavorable weather conditions linked to climate change. Production declines in Brazil, Colombia, and Indonesia reduced global supply, while demand in Europe, the United States, and Asia continued to expand.

A strong market position
Vietnam is the world’s largest exporter of Robusta coffee, accounting for around 40 percent of the global market. This dominance, combined with stable supply, gives the country a competitive edge at a time when many producers are struggling with weather disruptions.

Nguyen Nam Hai, president of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, emphasized that “the international coffee market has never been as favorable as it is now. With high prices, strong demand, and Vietnam’s reliable supply, the industry is in an advantageous position.”

However, Hai and other experts caution that to take full advantage of these conditions, Vietnam must expand into deep processing and value-added products instead of relying primarily on raw bean exports.

Processing gap remains wide
While exports are rising in value, the structure of Vietnam’s coffee trade remains heavily skewed toward raw beans. Deep-processed coffee, including roasted, instant, and specialty products, currently accounts for just 12–15 percent of total exports. This is significantly lower than in Brazil and Colombia, where processed coffee represents 30–40 percent of total shipments.

Industry leaders say this gap leaves Vietnam vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices. Le Hoang Diep Thao, founder and chief executive of King Coffee, told local media that investing in processing allows companies to “multiply the value of their products significantly.”

But she acknowledged that the financial barriers are steep. Instant coffee production technology alone requires capital investments running into hundreds of billions of dong, which many small and medium-sized enterprises cannot afford. In addition to high costs, technological limitations and branding weaknesses continue to slow progress.

Technology and branding challenges
Large enterprises such as Vinacafe, Trung Nguyen, and Nestlé have invested in processing facilities, but many smaller businesses lack the technological capacity to compete. The industry’s processing base remains uneven, particularly in the specialty coffee and instant coffee segments.

Branding is another critical challenge. Internationally, Vietnam is recognized for its export volume, but its consumer brands have yet to achieve significant recognition. Global buyers often associate coffee with well-known international names such as Starbucks from the United States, Lavazza from Italy, or Nestlé from Switzerland. This lack of global brand presence makes it harder for Vietnamese processed coffee to compete in premium markets.

Agricultural economist Dinh Van Thanh warned that “if Vietnam continues to depend mainly on raw exports, it will remain only an ingredient supplier for large multinational corporations.” He stressed the need for a long-term national strategy to boost processing capacity and to build a recognized coffee brand that can stand alongside global competitors.

Positive signals from the industry
Despite these challenges, signs of progress are emerging. Trung Nguyen Legend has been expanding its instant coffee exports to markets in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Vinacafe has shifted focus toward developing sales within the ASEAN region. Meanwhile, several start-ups in Lam Dong and Gia Lai are working to establish specialty coffee brands targeting premium consumers in Japan and South Korea.

Rather than exporting raw beans, some of these start-ups are partnering with international buyers to roast and process coffee locally before shipping it abroad. According to Thao, this model doubles the selling price compared to raw beans while also ensuring farmers receive higher incomes.

Strategic recommendations
Industry specialists believe that to maintain momentum and secure its place in the global market, Vietnam must adopt a three-pronged strategy.

First, investment in deep processing technology must be accelerated. Government support through preferential credit policies could play a crucial role in enabling businesses to acquire the necessary machinery and production lines for instant and specialty coffee.

Second, Vietnam must prioritize the development of a strong national coffee brand. Experts point to models such as Thailand’s Jasmine rice and Colombia’s Arabica coffee, both of which have achieved global recognition. A similar effort in branding would enhance Vietnam’s visibility and competitiveness on the international stage.

Third, attention should be directed toward emerging markets such as the Middle East, South Asia, and Eastern Europe, where demand for coffee is growing rapidly. These regions present opportunities for processed Vietnamese coffee to establish new distribution channels and expand market share.

At a turning point
With international coffee prices at record highs and global consumption continuing to rise, Vietnam’s coffee sector stands at a turning point. The ability to move beyond raw exports and build a stronger international identity could define its future role in the global coffee trade.

As industry experts stress, Vietnam now faces a critical choice: remain a bulk supplier of raw beans, or transform into a producer of high-value, branded coffee products that command a stronger position in world markets.