Author: Qahwa World – San Salvador
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report ES2026-0004
Date: April 20, 2026
El Salvador Coffee Output Falls 7.5% to 542,000 Bags in 2026
Executive Summary
- El Salvador coffee production for 2026/2027 is forecast at 542,000 60 kg bags, a 7.5% decrease from the revised 2025/2026 estimate of 586,000 bags.
- The decline is driven by expected adverse weather from the El Niño phenomenon during flowering and harvest periods.
- Planted area remains stable at 118,000 hectares, with no significant expansion due to climate vulnerability and limited credit access.
- Exports are forecast at 543,000 bags in 2026/2027, slightly up from 535,000 bags. The United States remains the largest market with 50% share.
- Domestic consumption reaches 339,000 bags, driven by a tourism boom and expanding coffee shop culture. Soluble coffee accounts for 88% of consumption.
- Labor shortages from rural‑to‑urban migration continue to limit pruning, renovation, and harvesting activities.
- Government programs focus on smallholders (less than 15% of area), but a large‑scale renovation plan remains unfunded.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service office in San Salvador estimates El Salvador coffee production for marketing year 2025/2026 at 586,000 60 kg bags.
For 2026/2027, production is forecast to fall to 542,000 bags, a 7.5 percent decrease, primarily due to the expected impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon during flowering and harvest periods.
The 2025/2026 crop was already affected by torrential rains in December 2025, which caused substantial berry drop at peak ripeness and dried out remaining berries, reducing both yields and bean quality during milling.
Planted area has remained stable at approximately 118,000 hectares across the past two marketing years and is expected to hold steady through 2026/2027.
Stagnation is largely attributed to climate vulnerability and limited access to credit, as private banks view coffee farming as a high‑risk investment and are reluctant to lend.
Faced with low profitability, many coffee farmers have transitioned to alternative crops such as cocoa and white corn.
Others have sold their land to real estate developers to cover debts. The government continues distributing new coffee seedlings, primarily to small‑scale farmers who represent about 15 percent of total coffee area, but without adequate financing many seedlings remain unplanted or fail to survive.
Producer Structure and Value‑Added Coffee
Smallest coffee producers (0‑3.5 hectares) represent most producers but account for a limited share of harvested area, which is more heavily concentrated among larger farms.
Value‑added production, including gourmet, specialty, and fair‑trade coffees, continues to generate additional income for a small but expanding group targeting niche markets.
These farmers focus on micro‑lot (5‑100 bags) and nano‑lot (fewer than 5 bags) sales, catering to specialty coffee buyers in the United States, Europe, and Asia.
In 2025, El Salvador held its annual Cup of Excellence competition, incorporating virtual cupping protocols for international judging. Geisha and Pacamara varieties dominated, with top‑scoring lots achieving ratings in the 90‑point range.
Inputs, Labor Shortages and Yields
The government operates a fungicide and biofertilizer distribution program primarily targeting small coffee farmers (with less than 7 hectares) to help manage coffee leaf rust outbreaks.
However, most producers do not benefit from this initiative and face limited access to financing for pest control and soil nutrition.
Seedling distribution includes varieties such as Cuscatleco, Marsellesa, Pacas, Pacamara, Sarchimor, and Anacafe 14.
A critical challenge is the continued shortage of agricultural labor. Migration to urban areas, driven by demand for construction labor, has reduced the rural workforce, leaving many farms without sufficient labor for pruning, weeding, fertilizer and pesticide application, and berry harvesting.
This scarcity undermines cultural practices and harvesting, negatively impacting productivity.
National coffee yields remain low, averaging 4.97 60 kg bags per hectare in 2025/2026. This underperformance is largely due to insufficient investment in a comprehensive renovation program. Current efforts focus primarily on small landholders (about 15 percent of planted area), limiting overall impact.
El Salvador is among the region’s most climate‑vulnerable countries, facing recurrent droughts and floods that disrupt flowering and cherry development, while also creating favorable conditions for pests and diseases such as coffee leaf rust, anthracnose, and coffee berry borer.
Domestic Consumption
Domestic coffee consumption for 2025/2026 is projected at 332,000 60 kg bags (green bean equivalent).
Increased international and local tourism due to improved security has boosted consumption.
Most of this consumption remains lower‑cost soluble coffee, largely imported from Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, and Nicaragua, alongside domestic brands such as Coscafe and D’Cafe.
Soluble coffee accounts for an estimated 292,000 bags, while roasted and ground coffee totals 40,000 bags.
For 2026/2027, consumption is expected to increase by 2 percent to 339,000 bags, driven by a surge in tourism.
In calendar year 2025, El Salvador recorded the world’s second‑highest percentage increase in tourism.
Coffee shop culture continues to expand, with new establishments in shopping malls and commercial centers. International chains such as Juan Valdez, Starbucks, and McCafe are growing alongside local brands like Viva Espresso and The Coffee Cup.
Retail demand for premium local varieties including Bourbon, Pacas, Pacamara, and Geisha continues to rise. Notably, El Salvador’s cafe Alquimia achieved 3rd place in the 2026 World Coffee Bar competition.
Despite this momentum, consumers continue to favor soluble coffee due to its affordability and convenience.
Limited marketing for higher‑quality roasted beans and price sensitivity sustain this preference.
The Salvadoran Coffee Institute (SCI) continues efforts to promote premium domestic coffee through initiatives such as National Pacamara Coffee Day and participation in international events like the Specialty Coffee Expo.
Exports and Key Markets
Coffee exports for 2025/2026 are estimated at 535,100 60 kg bags, a 12.6 percent increase from the previous year, driven by farmers taking advantage of high international prices and selling off accumulated stocks.
Exports are forecast to continue growing to 543,000 bags in 2026/2027, as prices are expected to remain high throughout the harvesting period.
The United States remains the largest export destination, accounting for approximately 268,570 bags, or 50 percent of total exports.
Belgium has emerged as the second‑largest destination with about 11 percent. Other key markets include Italy, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Australia.
Premium prices for gourmet and specialty coffees continue to drive export incentives.
At the Cup of Excellence and other promotional events, top‑quality Salvadoran coffees are sold through global electronic auctions, often commanding prices $100‑$300 per hundredweight above spot market “Contract C” prices.
Table 1: El Salvador Coffee Exports (1,000 60 kg bags)
| Destination | 2025/2026 | 2026/2027 | Share (2025/26) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 268.6 | 272.6 | 50.2% |
| Belgium | 61.0 | 61.9 | 11.4% |
| Canada | 26.8 | 27.2 | 5.0% |
| Italy | 23.0 | 23.3 | 4.3% |
| Germany | 22.5 | 22.8 | 4.2% |
| Japan | 20.0 | 20.1 | 3.7% |
| Others | 113.2 | 115.1 | 21.2% |
| Total | 535.1 | 543.2 | 100% |
Certification programs including Starbucks Café Practices, Fair Trade, UTZ, and coffee‑related geographical indications (GIs) are gaining traction.
SCI, in collaboration with six coffee regions, has established GIs for coffee produced in those areas. Certified coffee generally commands higher prices.
SCI has also trained local cuppers to obtain “Q” grade certification. Through Starbucks Café Practices, Salvadoran farmers can sell their coffee at prices roughly $50 above international “Contract C” prices. In 2024, NESCAFE announced plans to build a logistics facility to source and sell local coffee.
Imports and Stocks
In 2025/2026, Mexico surpassed Brazil as the main supplier of soluble coffee to El Salvador, with an expected 110,128 60 kg bags. Brazil is forecast to supply 101,915 bags, Colombia 18,161 bags, and the United States 6,750 bags of roasted and soluble coffee.
Total coffee imports are projected at 270,200 bags in 2025/2026 and 272,100 bags in 2026/2027, driven by a tourism boom and expansion of retail outlets and coffee bars.
Of the 2026/2027 total, 262,000 bags will be soluble coffee and 10,000 bags roasted coffee. Coffee stocks are estimated at 158,000 bags in 2025/2026, as farmers held back sales anticipating higher prices due to harvest delays and logistics issues at Port Acajutla. Stocks are forecast to decrease to 79,000 bags in 2026/2027 as producers capitalize on high prices.
Policy and Structural Challenges
The Salvadoran Coffee Institute (SCI) has implemented a pest monitoring program to help farmers manage coffee rust before severe damage occurs. Efforts have focused on renovating approximately 500 hectares in the northern coffee belt, adding two coffee quality control labs, and investing in molecular biology and somatic embryogenesis equipment.
However, government support primarily targets small farmers with less than 3.5 hectares, who represent less than 15 percent of total planted area.
A more effective solution would be a large‑scale replanting initiative focusing on medium‑sized farms that account for about 37 percent of area.
Many coffee trees are now over 25 years old and have surpassed their productive lifespan. Each year, over 7 million plants must be replaced to account for natural mortality.
According to the Salvadoran Coffee Association, approximately 30 million high‑quality, rust‑resistant plants are needed annually for the next 10 years to fully renovate the country’s coffee areas.
The sector’s challenges have led to a decline in jobs in coffee‑producing regions, contributing to rural migration.
For every 100,000‑quintal drop in coffee production (about 45,000 tons), an estimated 10,000 jobs are lost.
Additionally, more coffee farms are being abandoned or converted to basic grain production, exacerbating environmental challenges by reducing forestation and impairing water retention.
Financial challenges persist, with farmers still repaying debts under the Coffee Trust (FICAFE) program, established in 2001.
A grace period on capital payments has been extended through the end of 2026, but the sector remains under pressure.
Private banks are unwilling to offer loans due to high default risk driven by price volatility and diminishing yields.
Coffee farmers also face high processing costs, with mills currently charging around $100 per hundredweight of green bean equivalent to prepare coffee for export.
In 2019, the government proposed the Café‑Proyecto País program aimed at unifying coffee associations and developing a sustainability strategy, but lack of funding has delayed implementation.
In April 2021, a coffee rescue program was announced to restructure approximately $240 million in sector debt, create a coffee research institute, renovate 35,000 hectares, and promote local consumption, but fiscal constraints have delayed progress.
In January 2021, the government secured a $45 million loan from the Inter‑American Development Bank (IDB) to assist smallholder farmers through technical assistance and preferential loans, which also helped establish the Salvadoran Coffee Research Institute. However, much work remains.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much coffee will El Salvador produce in 2026/2027?
Production is forecast at 542,000 60 kg bags, a 7.5% decrease from the previous year, mainly due to El Niño.
What is the main export market for Salvadoran coffee?
The United States is the largest market, accounting for 50% of total exports, followed by Belgium (11%).
What are the biggest challenges facing El Salvador’s coffee sector?
Climate vulnerability (El Niño), labor shortages from rural migration, high input costs, limited credit access, and aging coffee trees.
How has domestic coffee consumption changed?
Consumption reached 332,000 bags in 2025/2026, driven by a tourism boom and expanding coffee shops. Soluble coffee accounts for 88% of consumption.
What is the average coffee yield in El Salvador?
Average yields are low at 4.97 60 kg bags per hectare, far below regional averages, due to lack of renovation investment.
What government programs support coffee farmers?
Programs include fungicide and biofertilizer distribution for smallholders, seedling distribution, and a $45 million IDB loan for technical assistance, but large‑scale renovation remains unfunded.
Author: Qahwa World – San Salvador | Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report ES2026-0004 | Date: April 20, 2026
