Dubai – Qahwa World
Coffee prices strengthened midweek as extreme weather patterns across major growing regions continued to fuel fears of reduced global supply. Arabica futures for December delivery climbed more than 2%, reaching their highest level in a week and a half, while January Robusta futures also recorded modest gains.
In Brazil — the world’s leading Arabica producer — unusually dry conditions have persisted in Minas Gerais, where rainfall reached only three-quarters of the seasonal average by the end of October. The prolonged dryness follows an even drier previous week and has raised concerns over the next crop’s development. Meanwhile, in Southeast Asia, Typhoon Kalmaegi is expected to make landfall in southern Vietnam, threatening coffee plantations in key Robusta-growing provinces.
Inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) continued to shrink, adding upward pressure on prices. Arabica reserves dropped to their lowest point in over a year and a half, while Robusta stocks also declined. The drawdown follows reduced U.S. imports from Brazil, where a 50% tariff has sharply slowed trade. Since Brazil supplies nearly one-third of the unroasted coffee used in the U.S., buyers are now facing tighter availability. However, recent remarks by Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump hint at possible progress toward resolving trade tensions, which could influence upcoming market movements.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently increased the probability of a La Niña event to 71% for the final quarter of 2025. Such conditions often bring hotter and drier weather to Brazil, potentially impacting the 2026/27 harvest if the pattern strengthens.
At the same time, Vietnam — the world’s largest Robusta exporter — continues to expand its output. Official data shows exports rising by more than 10% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association expects production for 2025/26 to reach a four-year high if favorable weather persists.
Global trade figures also suggest sufficient overall supply. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently reported a slight annual increase in coffee exports, while Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, revised its 2025 Arabica estimate downward due to dry weather.
According to projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, world coffee production for 2025/26 could hit a record level of nearly 179 million bags, driven mainly by higher Robusta yields. Arabica output, however, is expected to dip slightly. Ending stocks are projected to rise by almost 5%, suggesting that despite short-term volatility, the market remains well supplied — though increasingly sensitive to shifting weather patterns.
