Tag: arabica prices

Coffee Market Between Today’s Tightness and Tomorrow’s Abundance: How May 2026 Numbers Reveal a Sharp Disconnect

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Qahwa World analysis – based on the International Coffee Organization (ICO) May 2026 report |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 14, 2026

Coffee Market Between Today’s Tightness and Tomorrow’s Abundance: How May 2026 Numbers Reveal a Sharp Disconnect

What Is Happening in the Coffee Market Today?

  • The coffee market is living a stark contradiction: spot inventories are shrinking while record surplus expectations are rising.
  • NY‑certified arabica stocks plunged 13.5% to 0.48 million bags – a multi‑month low.
  • At the same time, Brazil raised its 2026/27 production forecast to a record 66.7 million bags, with arabica alone jumping 28% y/y.
  • The market is pricing based on “future abundance” expectations, ignoring current physical tightness.
  • This disconnect creates a highly volatile environment: any additional disruption could trigger a sharp price spike.
  • Importers and roasters face a strategic dilemma: how to balance immediate supply needs against the risk of a price collapse later.

If you look at the May 2026 coffee market figures, you will find yourself facing two completely different markets inside one. The first market talks about shrinking inventories falling to multi‑month lows, about difficulties in securing immediate supplies. The second market promises a record surplus driven by an exceptional Brazilian crop that could reshape the global balance for years.

This contradiction is not just a statistical curiosity. It reflects a deep crisis of confidence between what exists today and what the market expects tomorrow. In this analysis, we examine the main features of this disconnect and explore its consequences for importers, roasters, and decision‑makers in the global coffee industry.

1. Inventories Are Crashing – A Warning Signal That Cannot Be Ignored

Despite all the talk about a surplus, the ICO numbers point to a very different reality on the ground. In May 2026, NY‑certified arabica stocks plunged 13.5% to just 0.48 million bags – the lowest level in months. Similarly, London‑certified robusta stocks remained near two‑year lows.

What this number means is simple: immediate physical supply of high‑grade coffee is running out. The market is currently suffering from genuine pressure on available stocks. This is not a reflection of weak production, but rather the result of several interacting factors: supply chain disruptions, slower deliveries, and possibly traders preferring to hold back inventory in anticipation of higher prices.

What is striking is that these shrinking stocks have not yet translated into a sharp price rally. That is exactly what deserves attention.

2. Brazil Announces a Historic Season – A Surplus That Could Rewrite the Rules

On the opposite side of the equation, CONAB raised its forecast for the 2026/27 Brazilian crop to a record 66.7 million bags. Beyond the headline number, the most striking figure is the huge jump expected in arabica production alone: up 28% year‑on‑year to 45.8 million bags.

This leap is not just a number on a table. It is the main factor feeding market expectations of a large surplus that could reach 10 million bags in coffee year 2026/27. Since the market is currently pricing based on “tomorrow’s expectations” rather than “today’s realities”, this massive number is the primary driver of the downward pressure we have seen on prices in recent months.

Indicator Trend Implication
Exchange stocks (NY arabica) ▼ 13.5% Acute spot tightness Brazil production forecast (arabica) ▲ 28% Expected future surplus ICO Composite Indicator (I‑CIP) ▼ 3.8% Pricing based on expectations, not reality

3. The Paradox – Why Are Prices Ignoring Current Physical Tightness?

Here lies the hardest question: why are prices not rising in response to falling spot inventories? The answer reflects a fundamental shift in how the market is pricing. It seems that traders are now basing their decisions on long‑term future expectations rather than current realities. The record Brazilian crop forecast appears so heavy that it overshadows all immediate scarcity signals.

This shift in market behavior is not necessarily healthy. It creates a condition of high fragility. If for any reason that record crop fails to materialise – drought, floods, logistical disruptions – the market will suddenly face two painful realities at once: already depleted spot inventories and a surplus that never arrived. The likely outcome would be a sharp price spike that could catch everyone off guard.

4. What This Means for Importers and Roasters – A Strategic Dilemma

For importers and roasters, this paradox creates one of the most difficult strategic dilemmas imaginable:

  • On one hand: Spot inventories are tight and prices remain historically high. The need to secure immediate supplies is urgent.
  • On the other hand: Any long‑term supply contract signed today could become a heavy burden if the record surplus materialises and prices collapse in the second half of the year.
  • The bottom line: Everyone is waiting. Buyers are waiting for a price collapse that may not come. Sellers are waiting for a rally that may not happen. The market is suspended in an uncomfortable grey zone.

The most prudent strategy at this time may be short‑term diversification rather than long‑term commitments. Flexible supply contracts, phased purchasing in small increments, and close monitoring of weather developments in Brazil may be the wisest approach in this uncertain phase.

5. The Market Is Pricing a Fiction, but Reality May Have Its Own Say

The disconnect we see today between falling spot inventories and record surplus expectations is not merely a statistical anomaly. It reflects a change in market psychology. Traders have heavily bet that the record Brazilian crop will satisfy all demand and more. But history teaches us that weather, logistics, and supply chains do not always follow optimistic scenarios.

If the surplus materialises as expected, prices may face further downward pressure. But if the Brazilian crop is negatively affected by weather or El Niño, the market could sharply refocus on the reality of tight spot inventories, generating an unexpected upward spike. In either case, caution remains the most important watchword.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Market Contradictions

Q: How can inventories fall while the market expects a surplus at the same time?

A: Inventories reflect the immediate present. Surplus expectations are based on the future Brazilian crop. The time gap between present and future is the source of the contradiction.

Q: Why are tight inventories not pushing prices higher?

A: Because the market is currently focused on “future abundance” expectations. Those heavy expectations weigh on prices and prevent them from reacting to current tightness.

Q: What is the most likely scenario for the coming months?

A: High volatility will be the main theme. Any weather or logistical development could sharply change the price direction in either direction.

Q: What do you advise importers and roasters at this time?

A: Avoid long‑term commitments. Use short‑term, flexible contracts. Monitor weather developments in Brazil very closely.

Q: Could we see a price collapse soon?

A: Not necessarily. Low inventories provide a floor that could prevent a major collapse even if a surplus materialises.

The coffee market today tells a complex story that cannot be understood through a single number. It is a story of a market torn between a tight present and an abundant future. The true professionals are those who can read between the lines and see that the greatest risk may not be the surplus itself, but the surprises that might appear on the road to it.

Analysis by Qahwa World – Based on the International Coffee Organization (ICO) market report for May 2026.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 14, 2026

Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Prices

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 8, 2026

Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Prices

Key Takeaways:

  • July arabica futures fell 0.37% today; July robusta rose 0.60%.
  • Arabica hit a 19-month low last week, robusta a 7-week low.
  • USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year on year.
  • Rabobank raised its global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags.
  • Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026.
  • ICE arabica inventories fell to a 5.75-month low of 419,504 bags.
  • El Niño risks and Strait of Hormuz closure provide price support.

Coffee prices traded mixed today as the ongoing harvest in Brazil continues to weigh on prices. July arabica futures fell 0.37%, while July robusta rose 0.60%. Weakness in the Brazilian real, which fell to a two-month low against the dollar, also pressured prices by encouraging export sales from Brazilian producers.

Last week, arabica fell to a 19-month low, and robusta slid to a seven-week low. The outlook for a record Brazil coffee crop remains the primary bearish factor, though some supportive elements exist.

Record Brazil Crop Forecast Weighs on Prices

Last Wednesday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags. That is a 14% increase year on year. Rabobank also raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags, up from 7.0 million bags previously.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest would increase by 12% to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group projected a record 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s 75.4 million bag forecast. StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags on March 12.

As a result, coffee prices have trended lower over the past six weeks amid an improved global supply outlook. StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025. That would be the largest surplus in six years.

Source Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS 71.9
Coffee Trading Academy 71.4
Marex Group 75.9
Sucafina 75.4
StoneX 75.3

Strong Vietnam Exports Pressure Robusta; Inventories Fall

Last Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose 7.9% year on year to 922,000 metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

In contrast, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 5.75-month low of 419,504 bags last Friday. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 and are now slightly higher at 3,732 lots. The decline in inventories provides some support to prices.

El Niño Concerns and Strait Disruptions Support Prices

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial stated that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. That would damage the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year. There is a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”

Moreover, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

On the bearish side, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3% to 138.658 million bags. The USDA FAS bi-annual report on December 18 projected that 2025/26 world coffee production will increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to fall 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production rises 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

Type 2025/26 Forecast (million bags) Year-on-Year Change
Arabica 95.52 -4.7%
Robusta 83.33 +10.9%
Global Total 178.85 +2.0%

Ending Stocks Continue to Decline

The USDA FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. This decline comes despite higher production expectations. It reflects strong global demand and persistent supply chain pressures.

However, prices may face additional pressure if large surplus forecasts materialize, especially with recovering production in Brazil and Vietnam. Investors remain watchful of weather developments in South America and geopolitical tensions in the Arabian Gulf region.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why are arabica prices falling despite lower exchange inventories?

A: Because of record Brazil crop forecasts and rising Vietnam exports, which increase global supply and weigh on prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports affect robusta prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase global robusta supply, putting downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil, harming tree flowering and reducing next year’s crop. This would support higher prices.

Q: How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect the coffee market?

A: The closure disrupts shipping routes and raises transport, insurance, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

Q: What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?

A: StoneX expects the surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years, driven by higher production in Brazil and Vietnam.

The coffee market remains torn between large surplus expectations on one hand and tight spot supplies, weather risks, and geopolitical tensions on the other. Investors continue to monitor exchange inventories and weather developments in Brazil closely.

 

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 8, 2026

Russia’s Imports of Brazilian Coffee Fall to Six-Month Low

Posted on by Qahwa World

Moscow – Qahwa World

Russia significantly reduced its imports of Brazilian coffee in February 2026, reaching the lowest level recorded since September 2025, according to Brazilian customs data cited by RIA Novosti.

Shipments to Russia totaled about 2.8 thousand tons, valued at $20.3 million. This represents a 1.8-fold decline compared with January 2026 and a 2.6-fold drop compared with February 2025. As a result, Russia’s position among the largest importers of Brazilian coffee fell from seventh to fourteenth place.

The decline occurred during a broader slowdown in Brazil’s coffee exports. In February, total Brazilian shipments reached 142.5 thousand tons, worth $1.03 billion, marking a 0.7% decrease from January and a 17% decline year-on-year.

You may like: Russia Updates Instant Coffee Standards for the First Time in 32 Years

The reduction in exports to Russia, however, was more pronounced and appears linked to several domestic economic developments. Economic pressures in Russia have led to an increased pace of restaurant and café closures, reported to be the fastest since 2021 according to data from Sberbank. The shift has reduced demand for imported coffee as more consumers move toward lower-cost food options.

Global coffee prices may also be influencing purchasing decisions. During 2025, arabica prices rose by roughly 25%, encouraging some buyers to delay purchases while waiting for potential price declines. Expectations of a strong Brazilian harvest for the 2026/2027 crop year, projected at 66.2 million bags, have already pushed arabica futures down to about $2.80 per pound in early March 2026.

At the same time, Russia’s instant coffee sector has expanded. The country increased exports of instant coffee by 28% in 2025, reaching $366 million, which may partly reduce reliance on imported green coffee.

Read Also: Russian Instant Coffee Exports Rise 28% to $366 Million

Trade policy changes may also influence future imports. Russia removed a 40% import duty on Brazilian coffee at the end of 2025, a move that could support a recovery in shipments in the coming months. Meanwhile, the Russian standards agency Rosstandart has approved an updated national standard for instant coffee that will take effect in November 2026, expanding the classification to include granulated and freeze-dried coffee, replacing a standard dating back to 1994.

Despite the drop in Russian purchases, several countries remained the largest importers of Brazilian coffee in February, including Germany, Italy, the United States, Belgium, and Japan, with import volumes ranging between 8.3 thousand and 23.4 thousand tons.

The sharp decline in Russia’s imports highlights a possible shift in the country’s coffee market, influenced by economic conditions, changing consumption patterns, and developments in global coffee supply.

Rains in Brazil and Tariff Hopes Shake Global Coffee Markets

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

The global coffee market experienced another week of turbulence as changing weather conditions in Brazil and renewed hopes for a U.S.–Brazil trade deal sent Arabica prices on a volatile ride. December Arabica futures opened the week of October 13 at 373.20 cents per pound, marking the weekly low, climbed to 418.50 cents on Wednesday, and closed Friday at 397.45 cents per pound. The 45.30-cent range reflected a market increasingly driven by both climate and political signals.

The week began with upward momentum, supported by a stronger Brazilian Real and dry weather forecasts across southeastern Brazil. However, optimism faded midweek as rainfall finally reached the coffee-growing regions. Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia reported significant precipitation in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest Arabica-producing state, with further showers expected through the week. The long-awaited rains prompted traders to liquidate long positions, easing the price rally that had dominated previous sessions.

Market sentiment shifted further when U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to meet Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to discuss trade cooperation. The news sparked speculation that the two countries might resolve the ongoing tariff dispute affecting coffee exports. Brazilian coffee currently faces a 50% import tariff in the U.S., and even the prospect of relief was enough to trigger additional selling pressure. Analysts cautioned that, while both governments have expressed willingness to negotiate, no official policy change has yet been confirmed, leaving American buyers facing the same challenges in securing Brazilian coffee.

In Brazil, farmers welcomed the long-awaited rainfall after weeks of drought, though experts noted that one week of showers will not immediately reverse months of stress endured by coffee trees. The timing and consistency of upcoming rainfall will be critical to support flowering and the next harvest cycle. While weather conditions dominated origin discussions, another noteworthy development came from West Africa. Liberia announced plans to introduce Coffee Liberica as its national flagship crop under the FAO’s One Country One Priority Product initiative, expected to launch in December 2025. The program aims to elevate the indigenous Liberica species to global recognition alongside Arabica and Robusta, potentially revitalizing Liberia’s agribusiness sector by creating jobs, attracting investment, and expanding its international presence. Although Liberica remains unfamiliar to many consumers, industry observers believe this move could generate renewed curiosity and demand for the rare variety.

In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index traded within a narrow range as traders monitored political developments and awaited signals from the Federal Reserve, which entered its communication blackout period ahead of its next policy meeting. Concerns about a potential government shutdown in the United States persisted but lacked the urgency seen earlier in the month. Both the British Pound and the Euro strengthened modestly against the Dollar as global markets remained steady. By the end of the week, GBP/USD stood at 1.34 and EUR/USD at 1.165, marking a calm close to an otherwise eventful week in the coffee and currency markets.

Brazil Dryness Ahead of Flowering Period Boosts Coffee Prices

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai, September 8, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices surged today, with December arabica futures rising by +9.65 cents per pound (+2.58%) and November robusta contracts climbing +$119 per ton (+2.76%). The rally comes as severe dryness in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions raises concerns about yields ahead of the critical flowering period. Meteorology agency Somar reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing state, received no rainfall during the week ending September 6.

Additional support came from Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab, which cut its 2025 arabica crop estimate by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags, down from 37 million bags projected in May. Conab also lowered its total coffee production forecast for 2025 by -0.9% to 55.2 million bags.

Meanwhile, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports in July fell -1.6% year-on-year to 11.6 million bags, while cumulative exports for October through July were down -0.3% at 115.6 million bags.

Tighter stocks at the ICE exchange are also supporting prices. ICE-monitored arabica inventories dropped to a 1.25-year low of 686,863 bags last week before slightly rebounding to 692,766 bags. Robusta inventories remain close to a 1.5-month low at 6,552 lots.

U.S. supplies are under additional pressure from trade measures. American buyers have begun canceling contracts for Brazilian beans following the imposition of 50% tariffs on imports, tightening supply as about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee comes from Brazil.

Harvest progress in Brazil is also influencing prices. Cooxupé, the country’s largest coffee cooperative, reported that its members’ harvest was 94.9% complete by August 29. Separately, Safras & Mercado estimated the national 2025/26 crop at 99% complete by August 20, with robusta fully harvested and arabica 98% complete.

Export data shows a sharp decline. Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that unroasted coffee exports in July fell -20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 tons. Exporter group Cecafe said green coffee exports were down -28% to 2.4 million bags, with arabica shipments falling -21% and robusta plunging -49%. Total shipments from January through July dropped -21% to 22.2 million bags.

Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee producer, also faces challenges. Its 2023/24 crop fell -20% to 1.472 million tons, the smallest in four years, while 2024 exports dropped -17.1% to 1.35 million tons. However, January–August 2025 exports rose +7.8% year-on-year to 1.141 million tons. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 output estimate to 26.5 million bags, down from 28 million bags.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects global coffee production for 2025/26 to rise +2.5% to a record 178.7 million bags. Arabica output is expected to fall -1.7% to 97 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to grow +7.9% to 81.6 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to climb +4.9% to 22.8 million bags. However, trading group Volcafe warns of an -8.5 million bag global arabica deficit in 2025/26, compared with a -5.5 million bag deficit in 2024/25—marking the fifth consecutive year of shortages.

Brazil Estimates Coffee Export Losses at $196.5 Million

Posted on by Qahwa World

Cecafé: Brazilian coffee exporters lost nearly $200 million in July 2025

Dubai, September 3, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, has faced severe challenges due to disruptions in its port infrastructure. According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), total exporter losses in July 2025 amounted to $196.5 million.

Cecafé reported that overloaded and strained port facilities caused massive delays and forced changes in shipping routes. As a result, more than 598.7 thousand 60-kg bags of coffee could not be shipped in July. The average value of a bag was $385.4, while the longest idle period reached 35 days. In total, exporters lost the equivalent of 1.1 billion reals ($196.5 million), and shipments to the global market fell by 27%, dropping to 164 thousand tons.

Beyond logistical problems, Brazilian farmers also faced prolonged frosts. Experts warned that these unfavorable weather conditions triggered stress flowering, which could negatively impact not only the 2025 harvest but also next year’s production.

The disruptions in Brazil and Vietnam have already intensified pressure on the global coffee market. In New York, arabica prices rose to a two-month high in July, while in London, on November 27, the January futures price for robusta reached $5,547.5 per ton (+7.55%), setting a record since at least January 2008, according to ICE Futures.

Luza Baiguzina, Associate Professor at IMES, previously warned that difficulties with exports from Brazil and Vietnam could push coffee prices in Russia up by as much as 20% in 2026.

Brazil Weather and U.S. Tariffs Drive Coffee Prices to Multi-Month Highs

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai, August 19, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices surged on Tuesday, with arabica futures climbing to a 2.25-month high and robusta reaching a two-month high, supported by dry conditions in Brazil’s key growing regions and tightening U.S. supplies following new tariffs on Brazilian coffee.

September arabica coffee (KCU25) rose 1.85% (+6.35¢/lb), while September ICE robusta (RMU25) gained 4.04% (+$168). The rise reflects mounting concern over Brazil’s weather, particularly in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-producing state, where Somar Meteorologia reported no rainfall during the week ending August 16.

Market support is also coming from the United States, where buyers are avoiding new contracts for Brazilian coffee due to a 50% tariff imposed on imports. Brazil typically supplies about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee, making the tariff impact significant for roasters and traders.

Brazil’s July export figures further underscored supply concerns. According to the Trade Ministry, unroasted coffee exports fell 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons. Exporter group Cecafé reported that green coffee shipments dropped 28% y/y to 2.4 million bags, while total coffee exports fell to 2.7 million bags. From January to July, Brazil’s overall exports declined 21% to 22.2 million bags.

Certified exchange inventories remain tight. ICE arabica stocks fell to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags on August 14 before recovering slightly to 733,105 bags this week. ICE robusta stocks dropped to a three-week low of 6,749 lots, down from late-July’s two-year high of 7,029 lots.

On the supply side, Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest is advancing. Research firm Safras & Mercado estimates the crop was 94% complete as of August 6, with robusta nearly finished (99%) and arabica at 91%. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, reported its members had completed 80.4% of their harvest by August 8.

Beyond Brazil, Vietnam’s coffee industry continues to influence robusta prices. Drought reduced 2023/24 production by 20% y/y to 1.47 million metric tons, the lowest in four years, while 2024 exports fell 17.1% to 1.35 million metric tons. However, recovery signs emerged with January–July 2025 exports up 6.9% y/y to 1.05 million metric tons.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports in June rose 7.3% y/y to 11.69 million bags, though October–June totals slipped 0.2% to 104.14 million bags.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects 2025/26 world coffee production at a record 178.7 million bags, up 2.5% year-on-year. Arabica output is expected to fall 1.7% to 97 million bags, while robusta is forecast to rise 7.9% to nearly 82 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to grow 4.9% to 22.8 million bags.

However, trader Volcafe sees a very different balance: a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025/26, the fifth consecutive year of shortages and larger than the 5.5 million bag deficit recorded in 2024/25. This highlights continued market tightness despite record overall supply projections.