Tag: arabica prices

Russia’s Imports of Brazilian Coffee Fall to Six-Month Low

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Moscow – Qahwa World

Russia significantly reduced its imports of Brazilian coffee in February 2026, reaching the lowest level recorded since September 2025, according to Brazilian customs data cited by RIA Novosti.

Shipments to Russia totaled about 2.8 thousand tons, valued at $20.3 million. This represents a 1.8-fold decline compared with January 2026 and a 2.6-fold drop compared with February 2025. As a result, Russia’s position among the largest importers of Brazilian coffee fell from seventh to fourteenth place.

The decline occurred during a broader slowdown in Brazil’s coffee exports. In February, total Brazilian shipments reached 142.5 thousand tons, worth $1.03 billion, marking a 0.7% decrease from January and a 17% decline year-on-year.

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The reduction in exports to Russia, however, was more pronounced and appears linked to several domestic economic developments. Economic pressures in Russia have led to an increased pace of restaurant and café closures, reported to be the fastest since 2021 according to data from Sberbank. The shift has reduced demand for imported coffee as more consumers move toward lower-cost food options.

Global coffee prices may also be influencing purchasing decisions. During 2025, arabica prices rose by roughly 25%, encouraging some buyers to delay purchases while waiting for potential price declines. Expectations of a strong Brazilian harvest for the 2026/2027 crop year, projected at 66.2 million bags, have already pushed arabica futures down to about $2.80 per pound in early March 2026.

At the same time, Russia’s instant coffee sector has expanded. The country increased exports of instant coffee by 28% in 2025, reaching $366 million, which may partly reduce reliance on imported green coffee.

Read Also: Russian Instant Coffee Exports Rise 28% to $366 Million

Trade policy changes may also influence future imports. Russia removed a 40% import duty on Brazilian coffee at the end of 2025, a move that could support a recovery in shipments in the coming months. Meanwhile, the Russian standards agency Rosstandart has approved an updated national standard for instant coffee that will take effect in November 2026, expanding the classification to include granulated and freeze-dried coffee, replacing a standard dating back to 1994.

Despite the drop in Russian purchases, several countries remained the largest importers of Brazilian coffee in February, including Germany, Italy, the United States, Belgium, and Japan, with import volumes ranging between 8.3 thousand and 23.4 thousand tons.

The sharp decline in Russia’s imports highlights a possible shift in the country’s coffee market, influenced by economic conditions, changing consumption patterns, and developments in global coffee supply.

Rains in Brazil and Tariff Hopes Shake Global Coffee Markets

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Dubai – Qahwa World

The global coffee market experienced another week of turbulence as changing weather conditions in Brazil and renewed hopes for a U.S.–Brazil trade deal sent Arabica prices on a volatile ride. December Arabica futures opened the week of October 13 at 373.20 cents per pound, marking the weekly low, climbed to 418.50 cents on Wednesday, and closed Friday at 397.45 cents per pound. The 45.30-cent range reflected a market increasingly driven by both climate and political signals.

The week began with upward momentum, supported by a stronger Brazilian Real and dry weather forecasts across southeastern Brazil. However, optimism faded midweek as rainfall finally reached the coffee-growing regions. Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia reported significant precipitation in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest Arabica-producing state, with further showers expected through the week. The long-awaited rains prompted traders to liquidate long positions, easing the price rally that had dominated previous sessions.

Market sentiment shifted further when U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to meet Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to discuss trade cooperation. The news sparked speculation that the two countries might resolve the ongoing tariff dispute affecting coffee exports. Brazilian coffee currently faces a 50% import tariff in the U.S., and even the prospect of relief was enough to trigger additional selling pressure. Analysts cautioned that, while both governments have expressed willingness to negotiate, no official policy change has yet been confirmed, leaving American buyers facing the same challenges in securing Brazilian coffee.

In Brazil, farmers welcomed the long-awaited rainfall after weeks of drought, though experts noted that one week of showers will not immediately reverse months of stress endured by coffee trees. The timing and consistency of upcoming rainfall will be critical to support flowering and the next harvest cycle. While weather conditions dominated origin discussions, another noteworthy development came from West Africa. Liberia announced plans to introduce Coffee Liberica as its national flagship crop under the FAO’s One Country One Priority Product initiative, expected to launch in December 2025. The program aims to elevate the indigenous Liberica species to global recognition alongside Arabica and Robusta, potentially revitalizing Liberia’s agribusiness sector by creating jobs, attracting investment, and expanding its international presence. Although Liberica remains unfamiliar to many consumers, industry observers believe this move could generate renewed curiosity and demand for the rare variety.

In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index traded within a narrow range as traders monitored political developments and awaited signals from the Federal Reserve, which entered its communication blackout period ahead of its next policy meeting. Concerns about a potential government shutdown in the United States persisted but lacked the urgency seen earlier in the month. Both the British Pound and the Euro strengthened modestly against the Dollar as global markets remained steady. By the end of the week, GBP/USD stood at 1.34 and EUR/USD at 1.165, marking a calm close to an otherwise eventful week in the coffee and currency markets.

Brazil Dryness Ahead of Flowering Period Boosts Coffee Prices

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Dubai, September 8, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices surged today, with December arabica futures rising by +9.65 cents per pound (+2.58%) and November robusta contracts climbing +$119 per ton (+2.76%). The rally comes as severe dryness in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions raises concerns about yields ahead of the critical flowering period. Meteorology agency Somar reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing state, received no rainfall during the week ending September 6.

Additional support came from Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab, which cut its 2025 arabica crop estimate by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags, down from 37 million bags projected in May. Conab also lowered its total coffee production forecast for 2025 by -0.9% to 55.2 million bags.

Meanwhile, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports in July fell -1.6% year-on-year to 11.6 million bags, while cumulative exports for October through July were down -0.3% at 115.6 million bags.

Tighter stocks at the ICE exchange are also supporting prices. ICE-monitored arabica inventories dropped to a 1.25-year low of 686,863 bags last week before slightly rebounding to 692,766 bags. Robusta inventories remain close to a 1.5-month low at 6,552 lots.

U.S. supplies are under additional pressure from trade measures. American buyers have begun canceling contracts for Brazilian beans following the imposition of 50% tariffs on imports, tightening supply as about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee comes from Brazil.

Harvest progress in Brazil is also influencing prices. Cooxupé, the country’s largest coffee cooperative, reported that its members’ harvest was 94.9% complete by August 29. Separately, Safras & Mercado estimated the national 2025/26 crop at 99% complete by August 20, with robusta fully harvested and arabica 98% complete.

Export data shows a sharp decline. Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that unroasted coffee exports in July fell -20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 tons. Exporter group Cecafe said green coffee exports were down -28% to 2.4 million bags, with arabica shipments falling -21% and robusta plunging -49%. Total shipments from January through July dropped -21% to 22.2 million bags.

Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee producer, also faces challenges. Its 2023/24 crop fell -20% to 1.472 million tons, the smallest in four years, while 2024 exports dropped -17.1% to 1.35 million tons. However, January–August 2025 exports rose +7.8% year-on-year to 1.141 million tons. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 output estimate to 26.5 million bags, down from 28 million bags.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects global coffee production for 2025/26 to rise +2.5% to a record 178.7 million bags. Arabica output is expected to fall -1.7% to 97 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to grow +7.9% to 81.6 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to climb +4.9% to 22.8 million bags. However, trading group Volcafe warns of an -8.5 million bag global arabica deficit in 2025/26, compared with a -5.5 million bag deficit in 2024/25—marking the fifth consecutive year of shortages.

Brazil Estimates Coffee Export Losses at $196.5 Million

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Cecafé: Brazilian coffee exporters lost nearly $200 million in July 2025

Dubai, September 3, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, has faced severe challenges due to disruptions in its port infrastructure. According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), total exporter losses in July 2025 amounted to $196.5 million.

Cecafé reported that overloaded and strained port facilities caused massive delays and forced changes in shipping routes. As a result, more than 598.7 thousand 60-kg bags of coffee could not be shipped in July. The average value of a bag was $385.4, while the longest idle period reached 35 days. In total, exporters lost the equivalent of 1.1 billion reals ($196.5 million), and shipments to the global market fell by 27%, dropping to 164 thousand tons.

Beyond logistical problems, Brazilian farmers also faced prolonged frosts. Experts warned that these unfavorable weather conditions triggered stress flowering, which could negatively impact not only the 2025 harvest but also next year’s production.

The disruptions in Brazil and Vietnam have already intensified pressure on the global coffee market. In New York, arabica prices rose to a two-month high in July, while in London, on November 27, the January futures price for robusta reached $5,547.5 per ton (+7.55%), setting a record since at least January 2008, according to ICE Futures.

Luza Baiguzina, Associate Professor at IMES, previously warned that difficulties with exports from Brazil and Vietnam could push coffee prices in Russia up by as much as 20% in 2026.

Brazil Weather and U.S. Tariffs Drive Coffee Prices to Multi-Month Highs

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Dubai, August 19, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices surged on Tuesday, with arabica futures climbing to a 2.25-month high and robusta reaching a two-month high, supported by dry conditions in Brazil’s key growing regions and tightening U.S. supplies following new tariffs on Brazilian coffee.

September arabica coffee (KCU25) rose 1.85% (+6.35¢/lb), while September ICE robusta (RMU25) gained 4.04% (+$168). The rise reflects mounting concern over Brazil’s weather, particularly in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-producing state, where Somar Meteorologia reported no rainfall during the week ending August 16.

Market support is also coming from the United States, where buyers are avoiding new contracts for Brazilian coffee due to a 50% tariff imposed on imports. Brazil typically supplies about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee, making the tariff impact significant for roasters and traders.

Brazil’s July export figures further underscored supply concerns. According to the Trade Ministry, unroasted coffee exports fell 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons. Exporter group Cecafé reported that green coffee shipments dropped 28% y/y to 2.4 million bags, while total coffee exports fell to 2.7 million bags. From January to July, Brazil’s overall exports declined 21% to 22.2 million bags.

Certified exchange inventories remain tight. ICE arabica stocks fell to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags on August 14 before recovering slightly to 733,105 bags this week. ICE robusta stocks dropped to a three-week low of 6,749 lots, down from late-July’s two-year high of 7,029 lots.

On the supply side, Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest is advancing. Research firm Safras & Mercado estimates the crop was 94% complete as of August 6, with robusta nearly finished (99%) and arabica at 91%. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, reported its members had completed 80.4% of their harvest by August 8.

Beyond Brazil, Vietnam’s coffee industry continues to influence robusta prices. Drought reduced 2023/24 production by 20% y/y to 1.47 million metric tons, the lowest in four years, while 2024 exports fell 17.1% to 1.35 million metric tons. However, recovery signs emerged with January–July 2025 exports up 6.9% y/y to 1.05 million metric tons.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports in June rose 7.3% y/y to 11.69 million bags, though October–June totals slipped 0.2% to 104.14 million bags.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects 2025/26 world coffee production at a record 178.7 million bags, up 2.5% year-on-year. Arabica output is expected to fall 1.7% to 97 million bags, while robusta is forecast to rise 7.9% to nearly 82 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to grow 4.9% to 22.8 million bags.

However, trader Volcafe sees a very different balance: a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025/26, the fifth consecutive year of shortages and larger than the 5.5 million bag deficit recorded in 2024/25. This highlights continued market tightness despite record overall supply projections.