Tag: logistics

How the Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz Impacts the Coffee Sector

Posted on by Qahwa World
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO)
Author: Coffee World – Dubai
Date: May 20, 2026

Executive Summary

  • Reduced shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz since March threaten global coffee supply chains.
  • Brent crude prices jumped 63% from $72.29/barrel in February to $118.03/barrel in April.
  • Urea fertilizer prices rose 47% from $465.45/ton to $684.75/ton over the same period.
  • One-quarter to one-third of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait, with Qatar supplying 14% of the world’s urea.
  • Fertilizer accounts for 23% of production costs in Brazil and 26% in Vietnam, hitting smallholders hard.
  • The Middle East imports 8.6 million bags of coffee annually (4.5% of global imports), making regional demand vulnerable to instability.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Global Oil Artery Under Pressure

The International Coffee Organization warns that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could generate significant ripple effects across global commodity markets, and coffee is no exception. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical chokepoints in global trade, with around one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passing through it. Since March, shipping flows through the strait have been reduced, triggering higher oil prices, increased fuel costs, and greater volatility in freight markets.

Brent crude prices increased from $72.29 per barrel on February 27 to a high of $118.03 per barrel on April 29 – a jump of more than 63%. This directly affects coffee transport costs, inland logistics, and fertilizer prices, all central elements of production and export economics.

Fertilizer: The Weak Link in the Chain

Fertilizers are essential for coffee production. Between one-quarter and one-third of the global fertilizer trade – and up to one-third of nitrogen fertilizers (urea) – transits through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf region is a major fertilizer producer, with the Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), considered the world’s largest urea supplier, alone providing 14% of global urea.

As a result, the price of urea fertilizer rose from $465.45 per ton to $684.75 per ton over the same period – a 47% increase. For coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam, fertilizers represent a large share of production costs: 23% in Brazil and 26% in Vietnam. Smallholders, who operate on thin margins, are the most vulnerable to these increases.

Indicator Feb 27, 2026 Apr 29, 2026 Increase
Brent Crude (USD/barrel) 72.29 118.03 63%
Urea Fertilizer (USD/ton) 465.45 684.75 47%

The Middle East: A Strategic Consumer Region Under Pressure

The Middle East has become an increasingly important coffee-consuming region, with strong demand growth across Gulf countries over the past two decades. In 2024, imports to the Middle East reached 8.6 million bags, representing 4.5% of total world imports. Any regional instability may affect import demand, port operations, and re-export hubs such as the United Arab Emirates, which plays a strategic role in regional distribution and specialty coffee trade.

According to the European Coffee Federation, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with ongoing instability in the Red Sea, are pushing shipping lines to use longer alternative routings via the Cape of Good Hope. This leads to extended transit times, tighter vessel capacity, higher fuel costs, and additional security-related surcharges – especially for Ethiopia, which uses the port of Djibouti near the conflict zone.

Coffee Futures Markets: Extreme Sensitivity

Coffee futures markets are highly sensitive to macroeconomic uncertainty. Heightened geopolitical risk tends to strengthen the US dollar while intensifying speculative movements across commodities. For producing countries, whose local currencies are closely linked to export revenues, exchange-rate volatility can create both opportunities and risks, influencing farmgate prices and export competitiveness.

At this stage, the ICO considers it premature to draw conclusions or project specific market outcomes. However, it identifies several indicators the sector should monitor closely in the coming months: energy prices, freight rates, fertilizer costs, trade insurance premiums, currency volatility, and shifts in demand in key importing markets.

Conclusion: A Global Coffee Sector at Risk

Coffee is a deeply globalized sector, and its resilience depends on stable trade systems and international cooperation. In times of geopolitical uncertainty, transparency, market intelligence, and coordinated dialogue become even more important. The ICO will continue to monitor developments and provide timely analysis to support producing and consuming countries in managing potential risks to the sector.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. How much have oil prices increased since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began?

Brent crude prices rose 63%, from $72.29 per barrel on February 27 to $118.03 per barrel on April 29, 2026.

2. How does the Strait crisis affect fertilizer prices?

Urea fertilizer prices increased 47% over the same period because one-quarter to one-third of global fertilizer trade passes through the strait.

3. What is the fertilizer cost share for Brazil and Vietnam?

Fertilizer accounts for about 23% of production costs in Brazil and 26% in Vietnam, making them highly vulnerable.

4. How much coffee does the Middle East import annually?

The Middle East imported 8.6 million bags in 2024, which is 4.5% of total global coffee imports.

5. What alternative shipping routes are being used?

Ships are taking the longer Cape of Good Hope route, increasing transit times, fuel costs, and congestion in Mediterranean ports.

6. Can the ICO predict precise market outcomes?

No. The ICO says it is premature to draw conclusions but urges monitoring of energy, freight, fertilizer, currency, and demand indicators.

Author: Coffee World – Dubai  |
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO)  |
Publication date: May 20, 2026

Vietnam Suspends Decree 46, Easing Coffee Trade

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Vietnam’s suspension of Decree 46, a new food safety regulation governing all imported food and ingredients, has brought temporary relief to the coffee industry after weeks of disruption to supply chains.

Introduced at the end of January, Decree 46 tightened how food imports are managed at Vietnam’s borders. It replaced a more flexible framework with stricter approval procedures, including additional certification, registration, and physical inspections before products could enter the market. For many import-reliant sectors, including coffee, the impact was immediate.

Coffee businesses were hit on multiple fronts. Shipments of high‑quality green coffee, roasted products, and key processing inputs began to slow as importers adjusted to the new documentation and inspection requirements. Clearance times that previously took only a few days stretched to several weeks, creating bottlenecks at major ports as containers waited for checks and approvals. For an industry built on tight delivery schedules and thin margins, these delays quickly translated into operational and financial pressure.

Vietnam plays a central role in global coffee flows, not only as the world’s largest robusta producer but also as a processing and re‑export hub. Coffee is imported into the country for blending and processing before being shipped back out to international markets. That system depends heavily on efficiency and predictability at the border. By imposing full food‑safety compliance procedures on a wide range of imports, Decree 46 disrupted both.

One of the most sensitive areas was raw materials imported for re‑export. Under the previous rules, such shipments often benefited from simplified procedures because they were not intended for domestic consumption. Decree 46 removed much of that flexibility, requiring full compliance even for goods destined for re‑export. This added time, cost, and administrative complexity for coffee traders who route beans and semi‑finished products through Vietnam as part of global supply chains.

The specialty coffee segment also felt the strain. Imports of premium green coffee, small‑batch roasted products, flavorings, and other inputs used in high‑value offerings faced additional testing and approval steps. Smaller businesses, which typically operate with lean inventories, reported immediate pressure as delays threatened their ability to meet contracts and serve customers on time. Packaging materials and additives used in roasting, processing, and manufacturing coffee products were similarly drawn into the stricter regime, forcing companies to contend with more extensive compliance demands across their operations.

Industry reaction was swift. Business associations and trade groups representing food and beverage importers warned that the abrupt shift had created serious bottlenecks, with large numbers of shipments held at ports and border gates. They raised concerns about rising storage costs, the risk of contractual penalties, and knock‑on effects on domestic production that depends on imported inputs, including those used in coffee manufacturing and export.

In response, the government moved to stabilize the situation. On 4 February, authorities suspended the effectiveness of Decree 46 and temporarily reinstated the previous regulatory framework. This decision effectively returned import procedures to the more familiar rules that had been in place before the decree, allowing stuck shipments to begin moving again and easing congestion at key ports. For coffee traders and processors, the suspension has provided short‑term relief and a chance to clear backlogs.

However, the issue is far from settled. Officials have framed the suspension as a temporary measure while they review implementation challenges and consider adjustments to the regulation. Trading partners and industry groups have called for clearer guidance, more transparency, and adequate transition periods before any new rules take effect. The government has indicated that tighter control over food imports remains a strategic goal, suggesting that some form of stricter regime will likely return once technical and procedural issues are addressed.

For the coffee sector, this pause is being treated as a preparation window rather than a return to business as usual. Companies are reassessing their documentation workflows, compliance systems, and supply chain structures in anticipation that more demanding requirements will come back in some form. Import‑dependent roasters and exporters are also exploring options to diversify logistics routes, adjust contract terms, or build greater buffer stocks to cope with potential future disruptions.

The recent experience has highlighted just how sensitive the coffee trade is to regulatory shifts at key origin and transit points. Delays at Vietnam’s ports can quickly cascade into late deliveries, contract disputes, and price volatility along the supply chain. While the suspension of Decree 46 has eased immediate pressure, it has also sent a clear message: the operating environment for food and coffee imports in Vietnam is changing, and adaptation will be essential to maintain a smooth flow of trade.

You can adjust this text by shortening the background on regulation if your audience already knows Decree 46, or by expanding the “industry reaction” and adding quotes if you have direct sources from coffee companies or associations.

Global Coffee Market Roadmap—January 2026

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DUBAI – QAHWA

January 2026 was not merely the start of a new calendar year for the International Coffee Organization (ICO); it served as a critical testing ground for the resilience of global supply chains against dual shocks: climatic in the primary production origin (Brazil) and logistical in vital waterways. The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 296.89 US cents/lb, a 2.6% decrease from December 2025. While this figure may appear as a slight retreat, a deep dive into daily market movements reveals a state of “silent boiling” that culminated in a sharp price collapse in the final three days of the month, ending a long period of relative stability since late 2025.

  • I. Price Psychology and the “Minas Gerais” Effect

Prices entered January in a state of “cautious balance” (range-bound), lacking clear directional catalysts. Prices fluctuated within a narrow band, interpreted by analysts as being high enough to keep farmers financially satisfied but not low enough to trigger aggressive stock liquidations. However, this calm was shattered by two opposing factors:

Currency Impact and Hedging (Early Month): In the first week, around January 6th, the indicator rose by 3.2%. This increase was driven not by supply shortages, but by the strength of the Brazilian Real. The positive correlation between the Real’s strength and global coffee prices is a classic driver; a stronger local currency reduces export incentives for Brazilian farmers who then prefer selling in the domestic market (CEPEA index), which offered attractive premiums over international prices, creating temporary upward pressure.

The Saving Rain Shock (End of Month): A dramatic shift occurred between January 27th and 30th, with the market losing over 21 cents in a flash. Eyes were glued to weather maps over Minas Gerais, the heart of Brazil’s coffee production. Reports of heavy, consistent rainfall dissipated the “risk premium” previously added by traders fearing drought. This precipitation not only improved the current crop’s condition but provided strong positive signals for the 2026/2027 season, prompting investment funds and speculators to liquidate long positions, causing the indicator to drop to 283.02 cents.

  • 2. Structural Shifts in Demand (Robusta as the New Leader)

The report reveals a significant economic phenomenon: diverging performance among the four main coffee groups. While Arabica varieties suffered sharp declines—up to 4.5% in the “Other Milds” category—Robusta was the only group to achieve positive growth (1.0%), stabilizing at 192.52 cents. This divergence is no coincidence; it is the result of a “structural” shift in the global coffee industry. Amid rising global living costs, major international roasters have begun adjusting “blends” to increase the proportion of Robusta to lower final costs for consumers. This sustained demand for Robusta narrowed the price gap (arbitrage) between the New York and London exchanges by 8.4%, signaling that Robusta is emerging as the actual driver of corporate profit stability.

  • 3. Export Geography: Redrawing the Global Map

Global green coffee exports in December 2025 reached a strong 10.15 million bags, up 9.2%. However, this hides stark regional disparities:

The Central America and Mexico Surge (81.3%): This figure must be read carefully; it reflects “recovery from paralysis” rather than a sudden productivity spike. In December 2024, tropical storms (notably Sara) delayed harvesting, making exports almost non-existent then. In December 2025, stabilized climate allowed coffee to flow normally to ports, resulting in a massive percentage increase compared to the previous year’s “trough.”

Asia and Oceania Leadership (Vietnam & Indonesia): The region grew by 38.4%, led by Vietnam (+30%). Vietnam compensated for early-season harvest delays through improved processing efficiency and the “base effect.” Indonesia and India also saw a combined 61.1% jump, reinforcing Asia’s position as a primary global supplier while South America falters.

South American Contraction (The Persistent Dilemma): For the 14th consecutive month, South America recorded a decline (-15.0%). Brazil fell by 18.5%, and notably, Colombia dropped by 18.9%. The report hypothesizes that Colombia may have reached its “maximum production capacity” due to environmental factors and labor structure changes.

  • 4. Uganda: A Unique African Success Story

Uganda stands out as the “hero” of the African continent, with exports jumping 52.5% in one month. This is the fruit of a national strategy to renew trees and expand Robusta acreage. Uganda aims to export 20 million bags by 2030, and current figures show it is on track, filling the void left by other struggling producers with competitive quality.

  • 5. Logistics: Red Sea Security as a Cooling Factor

A pivotal analytical point is the breakthrough in the Red Sea. Following long-term disruptions, major shipping lines resumed using the Suez Canal by January 12, 2026, after security stabilized. This has a direct price impact:

Reducing “Coffee on Water”: Shortening transit times freed up millions of bags previously held at sea for extra weeks, allowing them to reach European and American ports faster.

Increased Destination Stocks: The availability of coffee in consuming ports reduces “urgent” buying pressure, removing a key price support pillar from last year.

  • 6. Technical Analysis of Stocks and the “Backwardation” Dilemma

Despite export flows, the market faces a technical contradiction called “Backwardation,” where spot prices remain higher than futures. This indicates short-term “hunger” despite long-term optimism. Consequently, certified stocks remain at critical levels (50% of the 5-year average), acting as a “safety valve” that prevents total price collapse.

  • Conclusion and Future Outlook

The January 2026 report clarifies that the global coffee market is moving from a “supply crisis” to a “logistical and climatic rebalancing.” The 2.6% price drop is likely the start of a broader correction in Q1, provided Brazilian rains continue and Suez Canal traffic remains steady.

Dubai: The Next Global Coffee Trade Nexus

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Dubai — Qahwa World

Dubai is rapidly establishing itself as one of the world’s most influential players in the international coffee trade. Once renowned for its dominance in gold, oil, and logistics, the emirate is now redefining itself as a global coffee hub connecting producing countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America with consuming markets across Europe, the Middle East, and North America. With its strategic location, advanced infrastructure, and thriving specialty coffee culture, Dubai is emerging as the next global nexus of the coffee industry.

Coffee is far more than a daily beverage — it is a $200 billion global economy that sustains over 25 million smallholder farmers and fuels more than two billion cups consumed every day. Yet the industry is under intense pressure. Climate change, volatile prices, supply chain disruptions, and changing consumer tastes have reshaped global trade dynamics. Amid these challenges, Dubai has positioned itself as a stabilising force that combines innovation, transparency, and accessibility to create new opportunities for producers and traders worldwide.

The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) has been at the forefront of this transformation through its state-of-the-art Coffee Centre located in the Jebel Ali Free Zone. The facility offers integrated services for roasting, storage, packaging, logistics, and trade, serving more than 300 members across the global coffee value chain. Designed on a pay-as-you-go model, it allows small producers and independent traders to access world markets without the burden of fixed commitments. According to Mike Butler, Associate Director of Coffee at DMCC, this flexible approach “makes the Coffee Centre extremely friendly for small businesses” and allows them to scale as they grow.

“Dubai is defining the global trend in specialty coffee today,” said Garfield Kerr, President of the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) and founder of Mokha1450. “In Dubai, coffee functions like wine elsewhere — it’s a cultural experience built around craftsmanship and taste.” Over the past decade, independent roasteries and boutique cafés have replaced international chains across the city. Consumers have become increasingly informed about freshness, roast profiles, and sustainability, pushing the market toward higher quality and transparency.

Dubai’s geographical advantage is another factor behind its success. Situated almost exactly between the world’s top producing nations — Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, and Ethiopia — the emirate offers unmatched access to global shipping routes. Its proximity to East Africa, one of the fastest-growing specialty coffee regions, gives it a natural advantage over traditional European hubs. “If you map the world’s major coffee producers, Dubai sits almost exactly in the centre,” Butler explained. “It’s only a matter of time before Dubai challenges Hamburg as the global leader in coffee trade.”

The DMCC Coffee Centre’s Tradeflow platform has introduced a new level of digital transparency to an industry often criticised for its opacity. Every batch traded through the system is physically verified and stored within the centre’s temperature-controlled facility, ensuring quality and trust between producers and buyers. By integrating blockchain-based traceability and tokenised finance options, DMCC has reduced intermediaries and opened new financing channels for smallholder farmers. Its partnership with the African Fine Coffees Association (AFCA) further supports African producers through logistics, warehousing, and buyer introductions, helping them retain greater value from their exports.

Dubai’s rise as a coffee capital is also cultural. The World of Coffee Dubai exhibition, held annually at the Dubai World Trade Centre, has become a magnet for industry leaders and enthusiasts alike. The 2025 edition drew nearly 17,000 visitors and 2,000 exhibitors, hosting auctions of the world’s rarest coffees and showcasing 131 debut brands — three-quarters of them international. “The world showed up,” said Kerr. “The coffee innovation coming out of Dubai is now influencing global trends.”

As global coffee trade evolves, sustainability has become central to Dubai’s vision. The emirate is investing in climate-smart agriculture, low-carbon logistics, and advanced digital systems that track environmental compliance. Experts warn that by 2050, up to half of existing coffee-growing land could become unsuitable due to rising temperatures, making adaptation essential. Initiatives such as agroforestry, drought-resistant varieties, and circular-economy recycling of coffee by-products are gaining momentum.

Through innovation and technology, Dubai is setting new standards for transparency and sustainability in coffee trading. Artificial intelligence now supports quality monitoring, while blockchain ensures traceable supply chains. Companies are exploring compostable packaging, recycling capsules, and transforming used coffee grounds into new products, aligning commerce with environmental responsibility.

“Whether it’s the supermarket, the sports club, or the cinema, coffee standards are rising everywhere,” Butler observed. “Dubai is uniquely positioned to lead this evolution, combining innovation, logistics, and sustainability into one cohesive ecosystem.”

In an era of shifting trade routes and unpredictable markets, Dubai has turned its vision into action. The city’s integration of culture, technology, and commerce is rewriting the rules of how coffee is traded and valued. More than a gateway between continents, Dubai has become the command centre of global coffee commerce — a place where beans, business, and innovation converge to shape the future of one of the world’s most beloved drinks.

Brazil’s Timbro Enters Coffee Export Market Amid Sector Shifts

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São Paulo — Qahwa World

Brazilian trading company Timbro has officially added coffee to its export portfolio, identifying strong potential for growth in a market reshaped by volatility and record-high prices over the past year.

Timbro, already one of Brazil’s key sugar exporters, also trades a wide range of products including iron ore, cotton, aircraft, cars, and heavy machinery, and manages import operations for Amazon.

“I believe we entered the coffee market at the right time — a very complicated moment for the sector,” said Caio Melles, partner at Timbro, in an interview with Reuters.

The company, which reported 18 billion reais ($3.3 billion) in revenue last year, sees an opportunity to fill the gap left by traditional traders struggling with market volatility. According to Melles, the coffee sector currently lacks players capable of tracking production, pricing, and ensuring delivery, opening new room for agile companies like Timbro.

Although Timbro has long engaged in financial operations with cooperatives and large producers, the 2025 crop year marks its first full physical coffee operation, a move the company had not previously disclosed.

Initially, coffee volumes will remain modest — around 80,000 bags of 60 kg each — as Timbro adopts a cautious entry strategy.

Expansion Beyond Coffee

Founded in 2010 by Jorge Guinle and Bruno Russo, Timbro began as an import-focused firm before rapidly diversifying its portfolio. The company has recorded significant success in sugar, increasing traded volumes from 300,000 tonnes in 2018 to 2 million tonnes in 2024.

In 2025, Timbro expanded its international presence with the opening of an office in Dubai, a strategic hub to strengthen relationships with global clients and enhance efficiency across time zones. It is also extending operations in Asia to “operate on Chinese time,” reflecting China’s importance as a key importer of Brazilian commodities.

Currently, 65–70% of Timbro’s business is export-oriented, while 30–35% focuses on imports.

Diversification into Grains and Minerals

Timbro maintains a smaller footprint in soybean and corn exports, Brazil’s leading agricultural commodities. “We’re doing a few soybean and corn shipments, maybe half a dozen of each this year — still very limited,” Melles said, noting that grain operations require integrated logistics to achieve profitability. The company is now considering logistics partnerships to expand in this segment.

In the steel and minerals division, Timbro expects to export over 1 million tonnes to China and Europe this year and has begun due diligence for new mining assets as part of its expansion strategy.

Exchange rate: $1 = 5.4519 reais