Category: News

Russia’s Imports of Brazilian Coffee Fall to Six-Month Low

Posted on by Qahwa World

Moscow – Qahwa World

Russia significantly reduced its imports of Brazilian coffee in February 2026, reaching the lowest level recorded since September 2025, according to Brazilian customs data cited by RIA Novosti.

Shipments to Russia totaled about 2.8 thousand tons, valued at $20.3 million. This represents a 1.8-fold decline compared with January 2026 and a 2.6-fold drop compared with February 2025. As a result, Russia’s position among the largest importers of Brazilian coffee fell from seventh to fourteenth place.

The decline occurred during a broader slowdown in Brazil’s coffee exports. In February, total Brazilian shipments reached 142.5 thousand tons, worth $1.03 billion, marking a 0.7% decrease from January and a 17% decline year-on-year.

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The reduction in exports to Russia, however, was more pronounced and appears linked to several domestic economic developments. Economic pressures in Russia have led to an increased pace of restaurant and café closures, reported to be the fastest since 2021 according to data from Sberbank. The shift has reduced demand for imported coffee as more consumers move toward lower-cost food options.

Global coffee prices may also be influencing purchasing decisions. During 2025, arabica prices rose by roughly 25%, encouraging some buyers to delay purchases while waiting for potential price declines. Expectations of a strong Brazilian harvest for the 2026/2027 crop year, projected at 66.2 million bags, have already pushed arabica futures down to about $2.80 per pound in early March 2026.

At the same time, Russia’s instant coffee sector has expanded. The country increased exports of instant coffee by 28% in 2025, reaching $366 million, which may partly reduce reliance on imported green coffee.

Read Also: Russian Instant Coffee Exports Rise 28% to $366 Million

Trade policy changes may also influence future imports. Russia removed a 40% import duty on Brazilian coffee at the end of 2025, a move that could support a recovery in shipments in the coming months. Meanwhile, the Russian standards agency Rosstandart has approved an updated national standard for instant coffee that will take effect in November 2026, expanding the classification to include granulated and freeze-dried coffee, replacing a standard dating back to 1994.

Despite the drop in Russian purchases, several countries remained the largest importers of Brazilian coffee in February, including Germany, Italy, the United States, Belgium, and Japan, with import volumes ranging between 8.3 thousand and 23.4 thousand tons.

The sharp decline in Russia’s imports highlights a possible shift in the country’s coffee market, influenced by economic conditions, changing consumption patterns, and developments in global coffee supply.

Caffè Nero Forecasts Rising Prices Amid Steady Global Growth

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Caffè Nero is pressing ahead with its international expansion, even as it warns that the price of a cup of coffee is likely to keep climbing. The premium coffee house group cited a volatile mix of geopolitical conflict, rising labor costs, and climate-driven supply shortages as the primary drivers behind the anticipated hikes.

The family-owned business, which operates 1,151 outlets globally, is targeting significant growth this year. The group plans to open 30 new stores in the UK and up to 70 additional locations across its 10 international markets. This expansion follows the recent acquisition of Washington D.C.-based Compass Coffee, a move that integrated 15 new sites and a dedicated roasting facility into the brand’s North American infrastructure.

  • A Different Rhythm

Gerry Ford, who founded the chain in 1997, suggests that Caffè Nero’s private ownership has allowed it to weather the current economic storm better than its publicly traded rivals. While competitors like Starbucks and Costa have struggled with store closures or stalled sales plans, Ford attributes Nero’s resilience to a “steady pace” and longer-term planning.

“We don’t want to take over the world,” Ford noted. “We have more flexibility because we aren’t trying to hit a quarterly reporting target. We move to our own rhythm.”

  • Financial Headwinds

Despite a 13% jump in annual sales to £587.6 million, the group’s pre-tax losses widened to £41 million. This was largely due to the rising cost of servicing its £481 million debt, fueled by recent interest rate hikes and a string of strategic acquisitions, including 200 Degrees and Harris + Hoole.

Caffè Nero Forecasts Rising Prices Amid Steady Global Growth

To manage these costs, Ford confirmed that the group will pause further acquisitions for at least a year to focus on integrating its latest purchases and meeting upcoming debt repayments.

  • The Cost Crisis

The industry is currently facing a “perfect storm.” Coffee prices tripled between 2023 and early 2025 as the climate crisis ravaged crops in Brazil and Colombia. While wholesale prices have recently stabilized, they remain nearly double what they were three years ago.

Ford warned that consumers shouldn’t expect relief at the till anytime soon. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to drive up energy and shipping costs, while rising business rates and wages in the UK add further pressure. Data shows that the average price of a latte has already surged by 35% over the past five years, now sitting at approximately £3.76.

Despite these challenges, Ford remains bullish on the future of the specialty coffee sector, insisting that there is still plenty of “white space” for independent, premium brands to thrive globally.

Kim Thompson: Coffee on the Edge of Disruption

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Dubai – Ali Alzakary

The global coffee industry has spent the past few years navigating one disruption after another—from pandemic shutdowns and climate volatility in producing countries to freight crises that reshaped global shipping routes. As the global coffee market grapples with volatility—production reaching around 175 million bags in 2025 while costs continue to rise due to climate pressures and freight disruptions—the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is adding a new layer of uncertainty to an already fragile supply chain.

Coffee moves through one of the most complex trade networks in the food and beverage sector. Green beans travel from farms across Latin America, Africa and Asia through international ports and maritime corridors before reaching roasters, cafés and consumers. Any disruption to shipping routes, insurance costs or regional logistics can quickly ripple across the industry. For specialty coffee—where freshness, tight margins and long-term sourcing relationships define the business—the impact can be felt even faster.

To understand how the sector is reacting, we spoke with Kim Thompson, Co-Founder  at RAW Coffee Company in Dubai. From monitoring shipments already at sea to preparing technical support systems for cafés, Thompson explains how roasters are navigating rising costs, uncertain logistics and a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.

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In this conversation, she offers a clear view of what café operators are worrying about right now, how long menu prices can realistically hold, and why the coffee industry’s resilience often comes down to relationships built across the supply chain.

  • Has the “fear factor” kicked in yet? Are you seeing cafés or hotels panic-buying and stockpiling coffee to guard against a potential shortage?

Not really. The reality of the café industry is that most operators are managing week-to-week cash flow, not building strategic stockpiles. Right now the conversations we’re having are far more about cost control than hoarding inventory.

The other factor is freshness. Speciality coffee isn’t a commodity that sits in a warehouse for months. We roast weekly and deliver fresh, so stockpiling doesn’t really fit how quality coffee businesses operate.

Our expectation is that the real response, if there is one, will likely come after Eid al-Fitr, once operators have had time to assess the geopolitical situation and think through their own coping strategies. At the moment, people are watching closely rather than panicking.

  • The coffee you’re roasting today was bought at pre-war prices — how long can you hold your current menu prices before new logistics costs force your hand?

The uncomfortable truth is that price pressure in coffee started well before this conflict. The industry has already been absorbing significant increases at origin, higher processing costs, and rising freight prices for the past two years.

We have already had to adjust pricing once, simply because the economics of producing high-quality coffee have changed globally.

If shipping routes tighten or logistics costs spike again because of regional instability, there’s only so much the supply chain can absorb. Roasters can cushion the impact for a period of time, but eventually the math catches up with everyone.

Coffee has historically been underpriced for the amount of work and risk involved in producing it. What we are seeing now is the global market slowly correcting that reality.

  • Are there specific “origins” or specialty grades that are now effectively “cut off” due to their transit routes through the conflict zone?

At the moment nothing is completely cut off, but logistics has become far more complicated overnight.

We currently have multiple containers on the water and are actively tracking them while exploring alternative routing options that avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

In many ways it feels like a return to the early COVID-19 playbook—scenario planning, contingency routing, and leaning heavily on relationships across the supply chain to keep things moving.

The specialty coffee industry is surprisingly resilient because it’s built on long-term relationships with producers, exporters and logistics partners. When things get unpredictable, those relationships become incredibly valuable.

  • What’s the plan for equipment and spare parts? Is there a risk that a broken espresso machine could stay down because of shipping delays?

Equipment supply is definitely something we’re watching closely, but fortunately we forecasted and planned ahead. We have several containers on the water carrying both commercial and domestic machines, so supply may get tight but we’re not walking into this empty-handed.

More importantly, we have invested heavily in our technical infrastructure. We run a full in-house service department with extensive spare parts inventory, qualified technicians, and swap-out machines available for our commercial partners.

In practical terms, if a café’s machine goes down, we’re structured to keep them operating. The bigger challenge in this industry is rarely the machine itself—it’s the global logistics that sit behind everything.

Oil Surge Could Brew Higher Coffee Prices

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Rising oil prices linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East are raising fresh concerns across the coffee sector, with vendors warning that higher fuel costs could eventually translate into more expensive coffee for businesses and consumers.

Crude oil climbed above 90 dollars per barrel on Friday, a level that industry participants say may increase the cost of transporting coffee beans across global supply chains. Because coffee is largely traded internationally and shipped over long distances, higher energy prices can quickly affect freight and logistics costs.

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The concern comes only months after the United States removed most tariffs on coffee and several agricultural products last November, a move that had provided temporary relief to importers, roasters and coffee retailers.

  • Shipping Costs Back in Focus

Coffee businesses say transportation costs remain one of the most sensitive factors affecting the price of beans. Any sustained increase in oil prices could raise the cost of shipping green coffee from producing countries to roasting and consuming markets.

Industry observers note that global coffee prices have already been under pressure due to supply challenges in recent years.

According to the World Bank, coffee prices have remained relatively high after adverse weather conditions in several coffee-producing regions reduced harvests and tightened global supply. Earlier expectations suggested that prices might gradually ease this year as production recovered.

However, the recent geopolitical tensions and the accompanying surge in oil prices could introduce new cost pressures, particularly through higher freight rates and supply chain expenses.

  • Uncertain Outlook for Coffee Markets

For coffee retailers and roasters, the coming months may depend largely on how energy markets evolve. Higher fuel costs can affect nearly every stage of the coffee supply chain, from farm transportation and export logistics to international shipping.

While the full impact remains uncertain, market participants say sustained increases in oil prices could add another layer of volatility to an already sensitive global coffee market.

 

Vietnam’s Coffee Crisis Could Disrupt Global Supply Chains

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Dubai – Qahwa World

A report published by BeverageDaily warns that challenges facing coffee production in Vietnam could trigger new volatility in global coffee markets, potentially affecting supply chains and prices in the coming years.

Although global coffee prices have recently shown signs of easing, the difficulties confronting Vietnamese coffee farmers may reverse that trend if production declines continue.

  • Vietnam’s Key Role in the Global Coffee Market

Vietnam is the world’s second-largest coffee producer after Brazil and the leading global producer of Robusta coffee. This variety accounts for more than forty percent of global production and plays a central role in commercial coffee blends widely used by major manufacturers such as Nestlé.

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According to figures cited in the report, Vietnam exports more than 1.5 million metric tons of coffee annually. In 2025, the country’s coffee exports reached approximately 8.92 billion dollars, representing a 58.8 percent increase compared with 2024, largely driven by high Robusta prices.

  • Climate Pressures and Rising Land Costs

Coffee production in Vietnam’s Central Highlands has been increasingly affected by extreme weather conditions. Severe floods and prolonged rainfall last year reduced yields and created concerns among traders, given Vietnam’s central role in global Robusta supply.

At the same time, rising land prices in coffee-growing regions are adding further pressure. Infrastructure development and expanding investment in agriculture have pushed land values higher, encouraging some farmers to sell their farms rather than continue production under tightening profit margins.

Industry observers say coffee farmers today must simultaneously manage climate risks, financial pressures and rising production costs, making the sustainability of farming operations more difficult.

  • Tax Policy Changes

The report also highlights regulatory challenges faced by the Vietnamese coffee sector during 2025 after the introduction of a five-percent value-added tax on certain semi-processed agricultural products, including coffee beans.

Exporters argued that the measure complicated trade procedures and tied up cash flow because exported green coffee is typically zero-rated. Vietnamese authorities later amended the legislation, and the previous tax treatment was restored starting in early 2026.

  • Smaller Roasters May Feel the Impact First

According to the report, disruptions in Vietnam’s coffee sector may initially affect smaller and medium-sized roasters, particularly in Europe, Asia and Australia, which rely heavily on stable supplies of affordable green coffee.

Yoc also read: How Vietnam Turned Coffee Into a Way of Life?

Large multinational companies generally have greater flexibility through diversified sourcing and long-term contracts. Nevertheless, price increases may eventually reach consumers, often with a delay ranging from twelve to twenty-four months.

  • A Possible Shift Toward Higher Value Production

With climate and land constraints limiting expansion in production volume, Vietnam’s coffee industry may increasingly focus on quality improvement and value-added activities.

Some producers may expand into roasting and semi-processed coffee products rather than exporting raw beans alone, a development that could diversify global supply chains over time.

Read also: Brazil Rain and Vietnam Surplus Sink Coffee Futures

The report also notes growing international interest in high-quality Robusta coffees, sometimes referred to as fine Robusta, as climate pressures make Arabica production more vulnerable in certain regions.

  • Investments to Strengthen the Supply Chain

Major coffee companies, including Nestlé, continue to invest in Vietnam’s coffee sector in an effort to strengthen supply chains and promote sustainable farming practices.

Programs supporting drought-resistant coffee seedlings, farm renovation and regenerative agriculture aim to improve productivity and resilience among thousands of farmers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands.

Despite these initiatives, the report suggests that the global coffee industry may still face recurring supply pressures if climate challenges and production costs continue to rise in key producing countries.

Specialty Yemeni Coffee: Authentic Heritage on Amazon

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Dubai – Qahwa World

From the high peaks of Yemen directly to your doorstep, we present the first speciality Yemeni coffee in an innovative Drip Coffee format. We have selected the finest crops, reflecting the richness of Yemeni soil and its unique flavour notes, offering them in practical sachets for a perfect cup in seconds.

Whether at the office or on a road trip, never compromise on quality again. For our exclusive launch on Amazon, we are offering a very attractive price that brings luxury within your reach.

To experience the coffee, click here: Amazon Purchase Link

Coffee Prices Rise on Supply Concerns

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Global coffee prices moved higher on Thursday as renewed concerns about supply disruptions supported the market. Arabica futures climbed to their highest level in about two weeks, while robusta contracts also posted modest gains.

Market sentiment was influenced by fresh export data from Brazil. The country’s Ministry of Trade reported that Brazilian coffee exports in February declined by 17.4 percent compared with the same month a year earlier, totaling about 142,000 metric tons. The drop raised questions about near-term supply availability from the world’s largest coffee producer.

Shipping conditions in global trade routes also contributed to the cautious mood in the market. Disruptions affecting shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz have increased transportation costs, including higher freight rates, insurance premiums and fuel expenses. These factors are expected to add pressure to import costs for coffee traders and roasters.

Despite the upward move in prices, a stronger U.S. dollar limited the extent of the gains. A firmer dollar generally makes dollar-denominated commodities such as coffee more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Weather developments in Brazil continue to play an important role in shaping market expectations. Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture conditions in Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-producing region. According to meteorological data, the area received significantly above-average precipitation during the week ending February 20, helping improve crop prospects.

Coffee prices have experienced notable volatility in recent weeks. Earlier in the month, both arabica and robusta futures fell sharply amid expectations of a large Brazilian harvest. Brazil’s national crop supply agency projected that the country’s coffee output in 2026 could reach a record 66.2 million bags, driven by stronger arabica production and a moderate increase in robusta volumes.

Global supply forecasts have also pointed to expanding production. Banking sector estimates suggest worldwide coffee output may reach around 180 million bags in the 2026/27 season, an increase of roughly eight million bags compared with the previous year.

Meanwhile, Vietnam continues to expand its presence in the robusta market. Official data show the country recorded strong export growth at the start of the year, with shipments rising sharply compared with the same period last year. Vietnam remains the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, and its production is expected to grow further in the current crop cycle.

Coffee inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange have also shown signs of recovery after reaching multi-month lows late last year. Higher stock levels can weigh on prices because they signal improved supply availability in the market.

At the same time, production trends in other origins remain mixed. Colombia, the world’s second-largest arabica producer, recently reported a significant decline in January coffee output compared with the previous year, a factor that provided some support to global prices.

Overall, the coffee market continues to balance opposing forces: concerns over logistics and regional production setbacks on one side, and expectations of larger global harvests on the other. Traders are closely watching weather conditions, export flows and shipping developments for further direction in the weeks ahead.

Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Japanese researchers have found that chlorogenic acid — a natural compound found in coffee — can reduce gum inflammation and decrease bacteria associated with periodontitis.

The results were published in Dentistry Journal, a leading international dental journal emphasizing high-quality, innovative research with impact on clinical practice, scientific developments, and policy worldwide.

Periodontitis develops due to chronic gum inflammation and destruction of the tissues supporting teeth, which in severe cases can lead to tooth loss.

The primary driver is dental plaque — a bacterial biofilm that changes composition over time and accumulates pathogenic microorganisms.

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These bacteria are difficult to remove with standard hygiene, and dense biofilms are challenging even for professional cleaning.

The researchers investigated whether chlorogenic acid could improve the control of inflammation and pathogenic bacteria.

Laboratory experiments on gum tissue samples and extracted teeth from periodontitis patients assessed the effect on inflammatory markers and microbial growth.

Results showed that chlorogenic acid suppresses pro-inflammatory cytokines, including interleukin‑1β and interleukin‑8, and reduces the proliferation of bacteria such as Streptococcus mutans, Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, and Fusobacterium nucleatum.

According to the authors, the compound exhibits strong anti-inflammatory and antibacterial properties and may serve as a promising adjunct for the prevention and treatment of periodontitis.

This study represents an example of translational research, where laboratory findings could be applied in future clinical practice. However, as the experiments were conducted in vitro, further trials are needed to confirm clinical effectiveness.

 

UAE Food System Capable of Withstanding Disruptions

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Dubai – Qahwa World

As questions around regional stability surface, some residents are understandably seeking reassurance about everyday essentials. Organic Foods & Café is urging calm, and the facts support it. The UAE Ministry of Economy and Tourism has confirmed that strategic reserves are sufficient for four to six months, with import activity and supply flows continuing normally. As stated by the Minister of Economy and Tourism of Government of the United Arab Emirates, Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, it has been unequivocal, noting that food security represents a red line for the country’s leadership, with zero tolerance for compromise.

The UAE’s resilience stems from structural depth, not just stockpiles. Its import base spans multiple continents, reducing dependency on any single trade corridor. The UAE’s integrated air, sea, and land networks also provide the flexibility to reroute supply chains rapidly should any single route face disruption. Firas Nasir, CEO of Organic Foods & Café and Co-CIO of the Gulf Japan Food Fund, points to the broader ecosystem underpinning this stability: “The UAE also has a robust food industry with locally produced fruit and vegetables, dairy, eggs, and a considerable ecosystem of distribution companies holding massive inventories that cater not only to the UAE but to many markets in the Middle East and Africa. These attributes place it well on the spectrum of import-dependent economies.” Nasir adds that this resilience is also structural at the investment level: “Organic Foods & Café is owned by an investment platform with food security as one of its mandates. The Gulf Japan Food Fund was created to deal with situations such as this.”

At the operational level, this resilience is mirrored across all seven Organic Foods & Café locations in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, which continue to operate as normal. The brand currently holds approximately three months of buffer stock across key shelf-stable imported products, and maintains the agility to remap supply chains across air, sea, and land routes as needed. With over 400 vendor partners locally and globally, the brand is well-placed to manage volatility without passing unnecessary cost pressures on to consumers.

For consumers, the most constructive response to uncertainty is a measured one. Rather than stockpiling or reaching for processed convenience foods under stress, the team encourages shoppers to maintain a modest, sensible supply of whole-food staples like grains, legumes, nuts, fresh and frozen produce, that offer real nutritional value and longevity. Buying only what is needed not only supports personal wellbeing, it helps ensure shelves remain stocked and accessible for all members of the community.

UAE customers have responded with a quiet confidence in the resilience of the Emirates, and that confidence is well-founded. The country’s food system is strong, diversified, and a testament to the UAE’s long-term vision for sustainable self-sufficiency.

For more information, visit www.organicfoodsandcafe.com
or follow @organicfoodsandcafegcc on social media.

Ahmed Bin Sulayem Highlights Expansion Plans at DMCC Coffee Centre

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Dubai — Qahwa World

Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of DMCC, announced new initiatives aimed at strengthening the regional coffee ecosystem and supporting emerging coffee entrepreneurs through the DMCC Coffee Centre.

Speaking about the Centre’s future plans, Bin Sulayem said the organization is exploring the launch of a community co-roasting space designed to support the next generation of coffee entrepreneurs. At the same time, plans are underway to develop a coffee wholesale facility that would further improve market access for the diverse network of producers and traders operating within the DMCC Coffee Centre.

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According to Bin Sulayem, the DMCC Coffee Centre has handled more than 30,000 metric tonnes of green coffee since its establishment, working with over 30 coffee origins worldwide. In addition, the facility has completed more than 1,000 metric tonnes of value-added processing, serving both the United Arab Emirates’ growing domestic market and over 50 major re-export destinations.

As the coffee sector in the UAE and the wider region continues to expand, the Centre has maintained close engagement with the local coffee community. Through partnerships and industry collaboration, DMCC has supported several major regional events, including World of Coffee Dubai.

DMCC has also launched a number of initiatives aimed at strengthening the specialty coffee sector. These include the Dubai Coffee Auction by DMCC, organized in collaboration with M-Cultivo, an initiative focused on supporting next-generation coffee farmers. The organization also introduced the UAE AeroPress Championship, which forms part of the global World AeroPress Championship.

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Bin Sulayem added that, in support of growing coffee brands, DMCC has introduced a JLT collection point, enabling members of the Coffee Centre and their customers to conveniently collect roasted coffee.

These initiatives reflect the Centre’s ongoing role in developing Dubai’s position as a growing hub for the global coffee trade and specialty coffee community.

Exhibitor Registrations Open for World of Coffee Dubai 2027

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai — Qahwa World

DXB Live, the organizer of World of Coffee Dubai, has announced the opening of registrations for World of Coffee Dubai 2027, following the strong results achieved by the 2026 edition. Organizers confirmed that 50% of the exhibition space has already been reserved, prompting exhibitors to secure their participation early in what is considered the MENA region’s leading specialty coffee exhibition.

The fifth edition of the exhibition, World of Coffee Dubai 2026, recorded significant participation from across the global coffee sector. The event covered 20,000 square meters at the Dubai World Trade Centre, bringing together companies, producers, and industry professionals in a platform dedicated to trade, innovation, and partnerships.

Organizers reported more than 20,000 visits during the three-day event, with participation from over 2,100 brands and companies representing the international coffee industry. The exhibition also hosted more than 75 coffee producers from over 80 countries, alongside nine national pavilions, including first-time participation from Kenya and Peru.

During the event, 14 memorandums of understanding (MOUs) were signed, reflecting growing cooperation between companies and institutions operating in the specialty coffee sector.

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The exhibition program included four international championships covering the Barista, Latte Art, Roasting, and International Cevze/Ibrik categories. The competitions brought together professional competitors from different countries and highlighted the technical skills associated with specialty coffee preparation.

The event also featured three specialized auctions that connected buyers with selected micro-lot coffees and professional coffee equipment. In addition, the Producer Village included 14 dedicated spaces presenting coffee cultivation practices from different producing regions.

The next edition, World of Coffee Dubai 2027, is scheduled to take place January 26–28, 2027, at the Dubai World Trade Centre, across Za’abeel Halls 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6.

Organizers indicated that preparations for the upcoming edition include expanding the exhibition space by more than 5,000 square meters, a step aimed at accommodating the continued growth of the coffee sector and the increasing demand for participation from companies and producers.

The 2026 edition received support from a number of industry partners, including DMCC Coffee Centre, IRM Flavour Design, Alpro, Gold-Pood, Mokha, Sulalat, The Rompeplan, and Tasteful.

Coffee Prices Rise Amid Surging Shipping Costs

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee markets saw gains on Wednesday, with May arabica (KCK26) climbing +3.10 (+1.09%) and May robusta (RMK26) rising +29 (+1.78%).

Analysts attribute the rebound to supply-side concerns. The ongoing conflict in Iran has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global freight rates, insurance costs, and fuel expenses—factors that are expected to push costs higher for coffee importers and roasters.

Meanwhile, favorable weather in Brazil is supporting the country’s coffee crop but is acting as a bearish influence on prices. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-growing region, received 78 mm of rainfall in the week ending February 20, 131% of the historical average.

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Despite this, coffee prices had sharply declined over the past five weeks, with arabica hitting a 15-month low last Tuesday and robusta dropping to a 6.75-month low last Monday. Brazil’s crop forecasts show strong production ahead: the national agency Conab predicts 2026 coffee output will reach a record 66.2 million bags, up +17.2% year-on-year. Arabica production is expected at 44.1 million bags (+23.2% y/y), and robusta at 22.1 million bags (+6.3% y/y).

On a global scale, Rabobank projects coffee production in 2026/27 to hit 180 million bags, an increase of 8 million bags from the previous year.

Vietnam, the largest robusta producer, is also contributing to market pressure. January coffee exports surged +38.3% y/y to 198,000 metric tons, while total 2025 exports jumped +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Vietnam’s 2025/26 production is projected to reach 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags), a four-year high.

Inventory dynamics are mixed. ICE-monitored arabica stocks, which fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags on November 18, have rebounded to a four-and-three-quarter-month high of 528,028 bags. Robusta inventories also recovered to a 3.25-month high of 4,721 lots after hitting a 14-month low in December.

Brazilian exports, however, fell sharply in January, with 141,000 MT shipped (-42.4% y/y), while Colombia’s smaller output supports price levels. The National Federation of Coffee Growers reported that January arabica production fell -34% y/y to 893,000 bags.

The International Coffee Organization noted a slight global export decline for the marketing year (Oct-Sep) of -0.3% y/y to 138.658 million bags. USDA forecasts for 2025/26 show total world coffee production rising +2.0% y/y to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica output is expected to fall -4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta climbs +10.9% to 83.333 million bags. Brazil’s production is projected at 63 million bags (-3.1%), and Vietnam’s at 30.8 million bags (+6.2%). Ending stocks are forecast to decline -5.4% to 20.148 million bags.