Tag: robusta prices

Coffee Prices Sink as Brazil Rainfall Outlook Improves

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures faced a sharp retreat on Friday, with Arabica falling -13.25 (-3.85%) to a five-and-a-half-month low, and Robusta sliding -66 (-1.58%) to a three-and-a-half-week low. The primary downward pressure stems from weather forecasts predicting steady, beneficial rains over the next week in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s premier coffee-growing region.

The bearish sentiment is further reinforced by an ample supply outlook. Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, recently raised its 2025 production estimate to 56.54 million bags, a 2.4% increase from previous forecasts. Simultaneously, Vietnam—the world’s top Robusta producer—reported a 17.5% year-over-year surge in 2025 exports, reaching 1.58 MMT. Vietnam’s 2025/26 output is projected to climb another 6% to a four-year high, potentially reaching 10% growth if favorable weather holds.

Inventory recoveries at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have added to the price pressure. Arabica inventories rose to a two-and-a-half-month high of 461,829 bags in mid-January, while Robusta inventories hit a seven-week high of 4,609 lots last Friday.

However, some factors continue to provide underlying support. Cecafe reported that Brazil’s December green coffee exports dropped 18.4% to 2.86 million bags, with Robusta exports specifically plummeting 61%. Additionally, while rains are forecasted, recent data shows that Minas Gerais received only 53% of its historical average rainfall in mid-January.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26. While Arabica production may see a 4.7% dip, a significant 10.9% increase in Robusta output is expected to drive global totals to new heights, even as global ending stocks are forecasted to tighten slightly.

Brazil Dryness Ahead of Flowering Period Boosts Coffee Prices

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai, September 8, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices surged today, with December arabica futures rising by +9.65 cents per pound (+2.58%) and November robusta contracts climbing +$119 per ton (+2.76%). The rally comes as severe dryness in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions raises concerns about yields ahead of the critical flowering period. Meteorology agency Somar reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing state, received no rainfall during the week ending September 6.

Additional support came from Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab, which cut its 2025 arabica crop estimate by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags, down from 37 million bags projected in May. Conab also lowered its total coffee production forecast for 2025 by -0.9% to 55.2 million bags.

Meanwhile, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports in July fell -1.6% year-on-year to 11.6 million bags, while cumulative exports for October through July were down -0.3% at 115.6 million bags.

Tighter stocks at the ICE exchange are also supporting prices. ICE-monitored arabica inventories dropped to a 1.25-year low of 686,863 bags last week before slightly rebounding to 692,766 bags. Robusta inventories remain close to a 1.5-month low at 6,552 lots.

U.S. supplies are under additional pressure from trade measures. American buyers have begun canceling contracts for Brazilian beans following the imposition of 50% tariffs on imports, tightening supply as about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee comes from Brazil.

Harvest progress in Brazil is also influencing prices. Cooxupé, the country’s largest coffee cooperative, reported that its members’ harvest was 94.9% complete by August 29. Separately, Safras & Mercado estimated the national 2025/26 crop at 99% complete by August 20, with robusta fully harvested and arabica 98% complete.

Export data shows a sharp decline. Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that unroasted coffee exports in July fell -20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 tons. Exporter group Cecafe said green coffee exports were down -28% to 2.4 million bags, with arabica shipments falling -21% and robusta plunging -49%. Total shipments from January through July dropped -21% to 22.2 million bags.

Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee producer, also faces challenges. Its 2023/24 crop fell -20% to 1.472 million tons, the smallest in four years, while 2024 exports dropped -17.1% to 1.35 million tons. However, January–August 2025 exports rose +7.8% year-on-year to 1.141 million tons. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 output estimate to 26.5 million bags, down from 28 million bags.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects global coffee production for 2025/26 to rise +2.5% to a record 178.7 million bags. Arabica output is expected to fall -1.7% to 97 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to grow +7.9% to 81.6 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to climb +4.9% to 22.8 million bags. However, trading group Volcafe warns of an -8.5 million bag global arabica deficit in 2025/26, compared with a -5.5 million bag deficit in 2024/25—marking the fifth consecutive year of shortages.

Brazil Weather and U.S. Tariffs Drive Coffee Prices to Multi-Month Highs

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai, August 19, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices surged on Tuesday, with arabica futures climbing to a 2.25-month high and robusta reaching a two-month high, supported by dry conditions in Brazil’s key growing regions and tightening U.S. supplies following new tariffs on Brazilian coffee.

September arabica coffee (KCU25) rose 1.85% (+6.35¢/lb), while September ICE robusta (RMU25) gained 4.04% (+$168). The rise reflects mounting concern over Brazil’s weather, particularly in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-producing state, where Somar Meteorologia reported no rainfall during the week ending August 16.

Market support is also coming from the United States, where buyers are avoiding new contracts for Brazilian coffee due to a 50% tariff imposed on imports. Brazil typically supplies about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee, making the tariff impact significant for roasters and traders.

Brazil’s July export figures further underscored supply concerns. According to the Trade Ministry, unroasted coffee exports fell 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons. Exporter group Cecafé reported that green coffee shipments dropped 28% y/y to 2.4 million bags, while total coffee exports fell to 2.7 million bags. From January to July, Brazil’s overall exports declined 21% to 22.2 million bags.

Certified exchange inventories remain tight. ICE arabica stocks fell to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags on August 14 before recovering slightly to 733,105 bags this week. ICE robusta stocks dropped to a three-week low of 6,749 lots, down from late-July’s two-year high of 7,029 lots.

On the supply side, Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest is advancing. Research firm Safras & Mercado estimates the crop was 94% complete as of August 6, with robusta nearly finished (99%) and arabica at 91%. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, reported its members had completed 80.4% of their harvest by August 8.

Beyond Brazil, Vietnam’s coffee industry continues to influence robusta prices. Drought reduced 2023/24 production by 20% y/y to 1.47 million metric tons, the lowest in four years, while 2024 exports fell 17.1% to 1.35 million metric tons. However, recovery signs emerged with January–July 2025 exports up 6.9% y/y to 1.05 million metric tons.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports in June rose 7.3% y/y to 11.69 million bags, though October–June totals slipped 0.2% to 104.14 million bags.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects 2025/26 world coffee production at a record 178.7 million bags, up 2.5% year-on-year. Arabica output is expected to fall 1.7% to 97 million bags, while robusta is forecast to rise 7.9% to nearly 82 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to grow 4.9% to 22.8 million bags.

However, trader Volcafe sees a very different balance: a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025/26, the fifth consecutive year of shortages and larger than the 5.5 million bag deficit recorded in 2024/25. This highlights continued market tightness despite record overall supply projections.