Coffee Prices Sharply Higher as Brazil’s Harvest Is Delayed

Posted on July 28, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart / Rich Asplund
Author: Qahwa Wold
Date: July 27, 2026

Coffee Prices Sharply Higher as Brazil’s Harvest Is Delayed

September arabica rose 3.43% and robusta gained 1.12% on Monday.
32.4 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais last week—2,700% above the historical average.
Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is only 64% complete, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% average.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags.
USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27.
El Niño risks continue to support prices with potential impacts on Brazil’s flowering.
ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots.

Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Monday. September arabica closed up 10.75 cents, gaining 3.43%. September robusta closed up 42 points, a rise of 1.12%. The surge came amid concerns that heavy rain in Brazil will further disrupt the coffee harvest.

Somar Meteorologia reported 32.4 mm of rain in Minas Gerais for the week ended July 26. This represents 2,700% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region.

Harvest Delays Support Coffee Prices

The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is supporting prices. Harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 47.3% complete as of July 17. This is behind the year-earlier pace of 59%. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15. This compares with 77% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 70%.

Heavy rainfall in recent weeks has disrupted harvesting operations. Coffee quality may also be affected. Brazilian farmers continue to hold back sales, hoping for higher prices.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress**
Indicator	Value
Cooxupe harvest (as of July 17)	47.3%
Cooxupe year-earlier pace	59%
Brazil overall (as of July 15)	64%
Previous year (July 15)	77%
Five-year average (July 15)	70%
Rainfall in Minas Gerais (week ended July 26)	32.4 mm (2,700% of average)

USDA Forecast and Market Reaction

Last Friday, coffee prices tumbled to 3-week lows. This followed the USDA’s forecast last Wednesday that global coffee output in the 2026/27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags. The increase is mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.

The USDA expects global arabica production to rise 12% year-on-year. However, robusta production is expected to fall by 0.7%. World ending stocks are expected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast a record Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags for 2026/27, up 14% year-on-year.

**Key Price Drivers for Coffee**
Factor	Impact	Details
Brazil rainfall	Bullish	32.4 mm rain, 2,700% above average, disrupting harvest
Harvest progress	Bullish	64% complete vs. 77% last year and 70% average
Arabica inventories	Bullish	2.5-year low of 292,810 bags
USDA production forecast	Bearish	Record 189.7 million bags globally
Robusta inventories	Bearish	4.25-month high of 4,254 lots
El Niño risks	Bullish	Potential impact on flowering in September-October

Inventory Trends Support Arabica, Weigh on Robusta

Rising inventories are weighing on robusta coffee. ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots last Wednesday. They were mildly below that level at 4,228 lots on Monday.

By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags on Monday. This tight supply situation supports higher arabica prices.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil. This September and October is when tree flowering normally occurs. Any delay could hurt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop.

On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a warning. The El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year. These conditions could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Bearish Factors to Consider

Despite the bullish momentum, several bearish factors exist. Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are bearish for robusta prices. On July 3, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports from January to June rose 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.

The USDA’s record production forecast also weighs on the market. However, the supply tightening due to harvest delays and El Niño risks may offset these bearish factors.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise on Monday?September arabica gained 3.43% and September robusta rose 1.12% on Monday, July 27.

What is driving the price increase?Heavy rain in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region—32.4 mm, 2,700% above average—is disrupting the coffee harvest and tightening supplies.

What is the status of Brazil’s coffee harvest?Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the 70% five-year average.

What are ICE coffee inventory levels?Arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags, while robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots.

What does the USDA forecast say?USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, up 6% from the previous year, led by Brazil’s recovery.

How does El Niño affect coffee prices?El Niño could delay rainfall during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September-October, potentially reducing crop yields and supporting prices.

Margin Hikes Drive Coffee Prices Lower

Posted on July 11, 2026July 11, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Commodity Bulletin / ICE / USDA / ICO
Author: Editorial Team
Date: July 10, 2026

Margin Hikes Drive Coffee Prices Lower

September arabica fell 13.65 cents (-3.92%), while robusta dropped 191 points (-4.72%) on Friday.
ICE raised margin requirements twice in one week, reducing liquidity and forcing fund liquidation.
Funds increased net-long robusta positions to 44,195 contracts, the highest in over two years.
Brazil’s harvest is only 52% complete, behind last year’s 60% and the 55% five-year average.
El Niño concerns grow as forecasts warn of delayed rainfall during Brazil’s flowering period.
USDA projects a record 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop for 2026/27, up 14% from last year.
Global 2025/26 production is forecast at a record 178.848 million bags.

Coffee prices ended the week sharply lower. September arabica fell 13.65 cents to close at 3.92% lower. September robusta dropped 191 points, a decline of 4.72%. The selloff extended the extreme volatility seen over recent sessions.

The decline followed two margin requirement increases by the Intercontinental Exchange. Higher margins reduced market liquidity. This forced many commodity funds to liquidate positions. The result amplified one-sided price movements.

Speculative Positioning Adds Pressure

Fund positioning has added to the downward pressure. According to Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, funds increased their net-long robusta position. They added 5,607 contracts in the week ending July 7. Their total reached 44,195 contracts. This is the highest level in more than two years.

Such concentrated long positions can accelerate price declines. This happens when investors begin unwinding their holdings. The current market structure remains vulnerable to further selloffs.

Brazil Harvest Behind Schedule

Earlier this week, coffee prices had surged on supply concerns. Arabica reached a 5½-month high on Monday. Robusta climbed to a five-month high on Tuesday. These gains were supported by delays in Brazil’s harvest.

According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 52% complete as of July 1. This compares with 60% at the same time last year. The five-year average stands at 55%. The slower pace reflects persistent rainfall disruptions.

**Brazil Coffee Harvest Progress (as of July 1, 2026)**
Period	Harvest Progress
Current year (2026)	52%
Previous year (2025)	60%
Five-year average	55%

Weather and El Niño Concerns

Weather concerns continue to underpin the market. Forecasts from Rural Clima indicate rainfall across much of Brazil during mid-July. This could negatively affect coffee crops. Heavy rains over the past month have already disrupted harvesting activities. They may have also reduced crop quality.

Growing concerns over El Niño continue to influence market sentiment. Commercial warned that the phenomenon could delay rainfall in Brazil. The critical flowering period in September and October is at risk. This could potentially affect the 2026/27 crop.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center also issued a warning this week. The developing El Niño event could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This increases the risk of floods, droughts, and temperature extremes across Asia and South America.

Meanwhile, Somar Meteorologia reported that no rainfall was recorded in Minas Gerais. This is Brazil’s largest coffee-growing state. The dry spell occurred during the week ending July 5.

Inventory and Supply Data

ICE-certified coffee inventories remain an important market support. Arabica stocks fell to 344,269 bags on Friday. This is their lowest level in more than 2¼ years. Robusta inventories, however, have recovered from a two-year low. They rose from 3,631 lots on May 15 to 4,200 lots. This is the highest level in about 3½ months.

Bearish Supply Outlook

Despite recent weather-related support, the broader supply outlook remains bearish. On June 3, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projected a record Brazilian coffee crop. The forecast stands at 71.9 million bags for 2026/27. This represents a 14% increase from the previous year.

Rabobank also raised its forecast for the global arabica surplus. The new estimate is 9.5 million bags. This is up from 7.0 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May. The total reached 2.73 million bags.

Vietnam is also adding to supply expectations. The country’s National Statistics Office reported strong export figures. Coffee exports during January–June 2026 increased 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is expected to increase 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

**Global Coffee Supply Forecasts**
Indicator	Value
Global 2025/26 production (USDA)	178.848 million bags (record)
Brazil 2026/27 crop (USDA FAS)	71.9 million bags (record)
Global arabica surplus (Rabobank)	9.5 million bags
Vietnam 2025 coffee exports	1.58 million metric tons (+17.5%)
Vietnam 2025/26 production	1.76 million metric tons (4-year high)
Global ending stocks (USDA)	20.148 million bags (-5.4%)

The International Coffee Organization previously reported global coffee exports for the current marketing year. Exports declined 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.

According to the USDA’s biannual report, global coffee production for 2025/26 is forecast to reach a record 178.848 million bags. This represents a 2% increase from the previous year. Arabica production is expected to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags. Robusta production is projected to rise 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

The USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2025/26 production at 63 million bags. This is down 3.1% from the previous year. Vietnam’s output is expected to increase 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are forecast to fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags a year earlier.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did coffee prices fall sharply on Friday?September arabica fell 3.92% and robusta dropped 4.72% after ICE raised margin requirements twice in one week, reducing liquidity and forcing fund liquidation.

What is the current fund positioning in coffee?Funds increased their net-long robusta position to 44,195 contracts, the highest level in more than two years, making the market vulnerable to rapid selloffs.

How is Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest progressing?The harvest is 52% complete as of July 1, behind last year’s 60% and the five-year average of 55%, due to persistent rainfall delays.

What is the El Niño risk for coffee production?El Niño could delay rainfall in Brazil during the September-October flowering period, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop, with forecasts suggesting one of the strongest events in 75 years.

What does the supply outlook show?USDA projects a record 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop for 2026/27, while Vietnam’s exports rose 7.3% in early 2026, signaling ample global supply.

What is the global production forecast?USDA forecasts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, with robusta up 10.9% and arabica down 4.7%.

Coffee Prices Surge 16% on Brazil Harvest Delays and Weather Risks

Posted on July 6, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: July 6, 2026

Coffee Prices Surge 16% on Brazil Harvest Delays and Weather Risks

Key Takeaways:

Arabica prices jumped 16.19% to a 5.5-month high; robusta rose 8.83% to a 5-month high.
Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was only 52% complete as of July 1, behind last year’s 60% and the 55% five-year average.
Rain is forecast for mid-July in Brazil, which could be detrimental to coffee crops.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-month low of 366,756 bags.
El Niño concerns are supporting prices, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y), which remains a bearish factor.
Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.3% in the first half of 2026, pressuring robusta prices.

Coffee prices catapulted higher on Monday, with arabica posting a 5.5-month high and robusta reaching a 5-month high amid a delayed coffee harvest in Brazil. September arabica futures closed up 16.19%, while September robusta futures gained 8.83%.

According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 52% complete as of July 1, behind last year’s comparable level of 60% and the five-year average of 55%.

Harvest Delay and Rain Forecast Drive Prices Higher

Gains in coffee accelerated on Monday after meteorologist Rural Clima said rain is forecast for a large part of Brazil in the middle of July, which could be “detrimental” to crops, including coffee. Also, Monday’s rally in the Brazilian real to a two-week high against the dollar discourages coffee sales from Brazil’s producers and is supportive for prices.

Coffee prices have moved sharply higher over the past month as heavy rains in Brazil disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered coffee crop quality. Brazilian coffee farmers are also holding back on sales, hoping prices will rise and bracing for the potential impact of this year’s El Niño weather event.

Exchange Inventories at 27-Month Lows

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months, supporting coffee prices. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-month low of 366,756 bags on Monday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 but have since risen to a three-month high of 4,109 lots last Friday.

Indicator	Value	Significance
September Arabica Futures	+16.19%	5.5-month high
September Robusta Futures	+8.83%	5-month high
ICE Arabica Stocks	366,756 bags	27-month low
Brazil Harvest Completion	52%	Below last year’s 60%
ICE Robusta Stocks	4,109 lots	3-month high

El Niño Concerns Support Prices and Threaten Next Year’s Crop

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year that could be the strongest on record. On June 10, the Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño pattern had formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Bearish Factors: Record Crop Forecasts and Vietnam Exports

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously.

In Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, coffee exports in the first half of 2026 rose 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.

Indicator	2025/26	Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production	178.85 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica Production	95.52 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta Production	83.33 million bags	+10.9%
Ending Stocks	20.15 million bags	-5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About the Coffee Price Surge

Q: Why did coffee prices surge 16%?

A: Due to Brazil’s delayed harvest (52% complete vs. 60% last year), rain forecasts for mid-July that could damage crops, and inventories falling to 27-month lows.

Q: How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 366,756 bags (a 27-month low), while robusta stocks rose to 4,109 lots (a 3-month high).

Q: Will prices continue to rise?

A: It depends on weather developments in Brazil, the severity of any crop damage, El Niño developments, and inventory trends.

The coffee market faces heightened uncertainty. While large surplus expectations remain in the background, delayed harvests, weather risks, falling inventories, and El Niño concerns are reshaping the balance. Investors are closely watching weather developments in Brazil and inventory trends to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: July 6, 2026

Drier Weather in Brazil Aids Coffee Harvest and Weighs on Prices

Posted on June 22, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 22, 2026

Drier Weather in Brazil Aids Coffee Harvest and Weighs on Prices

Key Takeaways:

Arabica prices fell 0.73% and robusta fell 1.76% to a one-week low, as drier weather in Brazil is expected to allow the harvest to resume.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eases supply disruptions, lowering shipping, insurance, and fuel costs.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-month low of 394,267 bags.
El Niño concerns support prices, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year.
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y).
Vietnam’s exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, with production expected at 29.4 million bags (+6%).
Global production in 2025/26 is projected at 178.85 million bags (+2.0%), with ending stocks falling 5.4%.

Coffee prices came under pressure today, with robusta falling sharply to a one-week low. The decline came as expectations of drier weather in Brazil raised hopes that the country’s coffee harvest can resume. September arabica futures fell 0.73%, while July robusta futures dropped 1.76%.

Prices had rallied to five-week highs last Thursday amid persistent rain in Brazil, which delayed the harvest. However, improving weather conditions are now reversing that trend, as harvesting activities are expected to accelerate in key coffee regions.

Drier Weather Resumes Harvest and Pressures Prices

Meteorological agencies forecast drier weather across Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions in the coming days, allowing farmers to resume harvesting activities that had been halted by heavy rains. This development is expected to increase supply in global markets, especially with expectations of a bumper harvest this year. The improved weather conditions have led to a decline in prices, as traders took advantage of the favorable weather to accelerate profit-taking.

Strait of Hormuz Reopening Eases Supply Disruptions

Authorities announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, easing supply disruptions that have affected the market in recent months. The reopening is expected to lower shipping rates, insurance premiums, fuel costs, and fertilizer prices, thereby reducing overall costs for importers and roasters. This development represents an additional bearish factor, as lower logistics costs remove some of the support that had been underpinning prices during the closure.

Indicator	Value	Significance
September Arabica Futures	-0.73%	Decline on improving weather
July Robusta Futures	-1.76%	One-week low
ICE Arabica Stocks	394,267 bags	27-month low
ICE Robusta Stocks	4,032 lots	2.25-month high
Strait of Hormuz	Reopened	Easing supply disruptions

Exchange Inventories at Multi-Year Lows

ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to 394,267 bags last Thursday, the lowest level in 27 months. This decline in inventories supports prices and reflects tight physical supplies. In contrast, ICE robusta inventories jumped from a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 to 4,032 lots, the highest level in 2.25 months.

El Niño Concerns Support Prices and Threaten Next Year’s Crop

Concerns over the impact of an El Niño weather pattern on Brazil’s next coffee crop continue to support prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño could delay the arrival of seasonal rains during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September and October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could be the strongest on record. The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed on June 10 that El Niño conditions have formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Large Crops Continue to Weigh on the Market

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported on June 11 that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May to 2.73 million bags.

Vietnam Expands Exports and Production, Adding Pressure

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continues to increase exports, adding further pressure on prices. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office on June 2, coffee exports during the first five months of 2026 reached 922,000 metric tons, up 7.9% from the same period a year earlier. Full-year exports in 2025 rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.

Global Production Outlook and Inventories Point to a Delicate Balance

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports during the current marketing year (October–September) totaled 138.66 million bags, slightly down 0.3% from the previous year. Meanwhile, the USDA’s FAS projects global coffee production in 2025/26 to reach a record 178.85 million bags, up 2% year-on-year. The forecast includes arabica production of 95.52 million bags (-4.7%) and robusta production of 83.33 million bags (+10.9%). The USDA estimates Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop at 63 million bags, down 3.1% from the previous year, while Vietnam’s production is expected to rise 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are forecast to decline by 5.4% to 20.15 million bags in 2025/26, compared with 21.31 million bags in 2024/25.

Indicator	2025/26	Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production	178.85 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica Production	95.52 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta Production	83.33 million bags	+10.9%
Ending Stocks	20.15 million bags	-5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why did coffee prices decline today?

A: Due to expectations of drier weather in Brazil allowing the harvest to resume, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz easing supply disruptions.

Q: How does the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz affect coffee prices?

A: It is expected to lower shipping, insurance, and fuel costs, reducing costs for importers and roasters and putting downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 394,267 bags (a 27-month low), while robusta stocks rose to 4,032 lots (a 2.25-month high).

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

The coffee market remains caught between supportive factors (El Niño concerns, falling inventories) and bearish factors (improving weather in Brazil, Strait of Hormuz reopening, record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production). Improving weather conditions and the reopening of the strait add additional downward pressure, though El Niño concerns and declining inventories still provide some support. All eyes remain on weather developments in Brazil and inventory trends to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: June 22, 2026

Dollar Strength Weighs on Coffee Prices

Posted on June 19, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 19, 2026

Dollar Strength Weighs on Coffee Prices, Capping Gains Despite Brazil Harvest Delays

Key Takeaways:

Arabica prices closed down 0.99% as the dollar index surged to a 13-month high, triggering long liquidation in coffee futures.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-month low of 394,267 bags.
Rainfall expected in Brazil could delay the harvest, but next week may bring dry weather to key coffee regions.
El Niño concerns support prices, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year.
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y).
Vietnam’s exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, with production expected at 29.4 million bags (+6%).
Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to support prices through higher shipping and insurance costs.

Coffee prices closed mixed on Thursday, giving up early gains as the dollar index surged to a 13-month high, triggering a wave of long liquidation in coffee futures. July arabica futures fell 0.99%, while July robusta futures edged up 0.14%.

Prices had rallied sharply over the past week, reaching five-week highs amid concerns that persistent rain in Brazil would delay the coffee harvest. However, gains faded after meteorologist Climatempo said Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions are expected to see mostly dry weather next week.

Dollar and Weather Determine Price Direction

The dollar index rose to a 13-month high, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and triggering selling in coffee futures. On the weather front, forecaster Vaisala expects moderate to heavy rainfall across Brazil’s coffee-growing regions this week, which could delay the harvest and reduce immediate supplies. However, Climatempo’s forecast of dry weather next week eased some concerns.

Exchange Inventories at Multi-Year Lows

ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to 394,267 bags on Thursday, the lowest level in 27 months. This decline in inventories supports prices and reflects tight physical supplies. In contrast, ICE robusta inventories jumped from a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 to 4,032 lots, the highest level in 2.25 months.

Indicator	Value	Significance
July Arabica Futures	-0.99%	Decline pressured by dollar strength
July Robusta Futures	+0.14%	Slight gain
ICE Arabica Stocks	394,267 bags	27-month low
ICE Robusta Stocks	4,032 lots	2.25-month high
Dollar Index	13-month high	Pressure on commodities

El Niño Concerns Support Prices and Threaten Next Year’s Crop

Concerns over the impact of an El Niño weather pattern on Brazil’s next coffee crop continue to support prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño could delay the arrival of seasonal rains during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September and October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could be the strongest on record. The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed that El Niño conditions have formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Large Crops Continue to Weigh on the Market

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May to 2.73 million bags.

Vietnam Expands Exports and Production, Adding Pressure

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continues to increase exports, adding further pressure on prices. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office, coffee exports during the first five months of 2026 reached 922,000 metric tons, up 7.9% from the same period a year earlier. Full-year exports in 2025 rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Continue to Support Prices

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global coffee supplies and support prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance premiums, fuel costs, and fertilizer prices, increasing costs for importers and roasters. This geopolitical factor adds an additional layer of support to prices amid continued instability in the region.

Global Production Outlook and Inventories Point to a Delicate Balance

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports during the current marketing year (October–September) totaled 138.66 million bags, slightly down 0.3% from the previous year. Meanwhile, the USDA’s FAS projects global coffee production in 2025/26 to reach a record 178.85 million bags, up 2% year-on-year. The forecast includes arabica production of 95.52 million bags (-4.7%) and robusta production of 83.33 million bags (+10.9%). The USDA estimates Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop at 63 million bags, down 3.1% from the previous year, while Vietnam’s production is expected to rise 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are forecast to decline by 5.4% to 20.15 million bags in 2025/26, compared with 21.31 million bags in 2024/25.

Indicator	2025/26	Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production	178.85 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica Production	95.52 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta Production	83.33 million bags	+10.9%
Ending Stocks	20.15 million bags	-5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why did arabica prices decline despite concerns over Brazil harvest delays?

A: Due to the dollar index surging to a 13-month high, triggering long liquidation in futures contracts, combined with forecasts of dry weather in Brazil next week.

Q: How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 394,267 bags (a 27-month low), while robusta stocks jumped to 4,032 lots (a 2.25-month high).

Q: Will prices continue to be volatile?

A: Yes, with continued tension between supportive factors (harvest delays, El Niño concerns, falling inventories) and bearish factors (dollar strength, record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production).

The coffee market remains caught between immediate bullish factors (harvest delays, falling inventories, El Niño risks) and structural bearish factors (dollar strength, record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production and exports). The dollar’s surge to a 13-month high adds an additional layer of complexity, making commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. All eyes remain on weather developments in Brazil and dollar movements to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: June 19, 2026

Coffee Prices Continue to Rise Supported by Brazil Harvest Delays and El Niño Risks

Posted on June 17, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 17, 2026

Coffee Prices Continue to Rise Supported by Brazil Harvest Delays and El Niño Risks

Key Takeaways:

Arabica prices rose 2.85% to a two-week high, robusta gained 1.36% to a five-week high.
Rainfall expected in Brazil may delay the harvest and reduce immediate supplies.
ICE arabica inventories fell to 397,242 bags – the lowest level in seven months.
El Niño risks threaten the critical flowering period in Brazil (September-October) and could impact the 2026/27 crop.
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y).
Vietnam’s exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, with production expected at 29.4 million bags (+6%).
Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are increasing transport costs and supporting prices.

Coffee prices continued to rise on Tuesday, supported by concerns that persistent rainfall in Brazil could delay the country’s coffee harvest. July Arabica futures gained 2.85%, while July Robusta futures advanced 1.36%. Arabica reached a two-week high, while robusta climbed to its highest level in five weeks.

The rally comes despite expectations of a record Brazilian crop, as the market appears to be focusing on immediate supply-side factors, including weather and declining inventories.

Harvest Delays Raise Supply Concerns

Weather remains a key driver of the market. Forecasting company Vaisala expects moderate to heavy rainfall across Brazil’s major coffee-growing regions this week, potentially slowing harvesting activities and delaying supplies reaching the market. Further supporting prices, ICE-monitored arabica inventories have been trending lower for the past three months. Arabica stocks fell to 397,242 bags on Monday, the lowest level in nearly seven months. Robusta inventories, however, have recovered from a two-year low of 3,631 lots recorded on May 15, rising to 3,991 lots.

Indicator	Value	Change
July Arabica Futures	+2.85%	Two-week high
July Robusta Futures	+1.36%	Five-week high
ICE Arabica Stocks	397,242 bags	Seven-month low
ICE Robusta Stocks	3,991 lots	Recovered from two-year low

El Niño Risks Loom Over Next Year’s Crop

Market participants are also monitoring the development of an El Niño weather pattern, which could affect Brazil’s next coffee crop. Coffee trader Volcafe has warned that El Niño could delay the arrival of seasonal rains during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September and October, potentially impacting the 2026/27 harvest. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a strong El Niño event this year. Meanwhile, the Japan Meteorological Agency has confirmed that El Niño conditions have developed across the equatorial Pacific. Such weather patterns can trigger droughts, floods, and temperature extremes that may disrupt coffee production in both South America and Asia.

Large Crops Continue to Weigh on the Market Despite Temporary Gains

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. Earlier this month, arabica futures fell to a 19-month low, while robusta touched a two-month low after forecasts pointed to a record Brazilian crop. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May to 2.73 million bags.

Indicator	Value	Change
USDA Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast	71.9 million bags	+14%
Rabobank Global Arabica Surplus	9.5 million bags	(was 7 million)
Brazil Green Coffee Exports (May)	2.73 million bags	+4.2%

Vietnam Expands Exports and Production, Adding Pressure on Prices

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continues to increase exports, adding further pressure to prices. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office, coffee exports during the first five months of 2026 reached 922,000 metric tons, up 7.9% from the same period a year earlier. Full-year exports in 2025 rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags. This increase in production and exports adds further supply to the global market, particularly in the robusta segment.

Shipping Disruptions Support Prices

Geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes have also contributed to market strength. Disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have increased freight rates, insurance premiums, fuel costs, and fertilizer prices, raising costs throughout the coffee supply chain. This geopolitical factor adds an additional layer of support to prices, as these higher costs are passed on to importers, roasters, and ultimately consumers.

Global Production Outlook and Inventories Point to a Delicate Balance

Indicator	2025/26	Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production	178.85 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica Production	95.52 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta Production	83.33 million bags	+10.9%
Ending Stocks	20.15 million bags	-5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why are coffee prices rising despite expectations of a record crop in Brazil?

A: Because of immediate factors such as harvest delays due to rain, inventories falling to a seven-month low, and concerns about El Niño impact on next year’s crop.

Q: How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 397,242 bags (a seven-month low), while robusta stocks rose to 3,991 lots from a two-year low.

Q: Will prices continue to rise?

A: It depends on weather developments in Brazil, El Niño risks, ongoing shipping disruptions, and the scale of the expected surplus from the record crop.

The coffee market remains caught between immediate bullish factors (harvest delays, falling inventories, El Niño risks, shipping disruptions) and structural bearish factors (record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production and exports). All eyes remain on weather developments in Brazil to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report.

Publication date: June 17, 2026

Coffee Prices Jump as Persistent Rain in Brazil Delays the Coffee Harvest

Posted on June 12, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Coffee World |
Date: June 12, 2026

Coffee Prices Jump as Persistent Rain in Brazil Delays the Coffee Harvest

Key Takeaways:

July arabica rose 2.17% and July robusta rose 3.19% to one‑week highs.
Moderate to heavy rain is forecast across Brazil’s coffee regions this week and may extend into next week.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 6.5‑month low of 402,709 bags.
Concerns over a “Super El Niño” that could damage Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop are supporting prices.
The USDA FAS forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% y/y.
Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in January‑May 2026, adding bearish pressure.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt supplies and support prices.

Coffee prices jumped to one‑week highs today amid concerns that persistent rain in Brazil will delay the coffee harvest. July arabica futures rose 2.17%, while July robusta futures gained 3.19%. Forecaster Vaisala said moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast across Brazil’s coffee‑growing regions this week, and the showers could extend into next week.

The rally comes after arabica hit a 19‑month low on Tuesday, driven by expectations of a bumper Brazilian crop. However, the current rains have renewed worries about harvest delays and quality.

Persistent Rain Threatens to Delay Brazil’s Harvest

According to Vaisala, moderate to heavy rain is expected across Brazil’s coffee regions this week, with the potential to continue into next week. This could disrupt harvesting activities that have already begun and affect bean quality. Delayed harvests typically lead to a higher proportion of defective beans and lower overall quality, reducing the supply of high‑grade coffee in the market. As a result, futures prices rose sharply, with short covering amplifying the move.

Exchange Inventories Fall to Multi‑Month Lows

ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to 402,709 bags on Wednesday, a 6.5‑month low. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories remained near a two‑year low at 3,713 lots. The decline in inventories supports prices by signaling tight near‑term supplies.

“Super El Niño” Threatens Brazil’s 2026/27 Crop

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial said El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, the period when tree flowering normally occurs, damaging the 2026/27 crop. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could be the strongest on record. On Wednesday, the Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed that an El Niño pattern has formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Source	Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS	71.9	Coffee Trading Academy	71.4	Marex Group	75.9	Sucafina	75.4	StoneX	75.3

Vietnam Exports and Surplus Forecasts Cap Gains

On the other hand, large surplus expectations still loom. Last Wednesday, the USDA FAS forecast a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% y/y. Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags from 7.0 million bags previously. Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, and its 2025/26 production is projected to climb 6% to 29.4 million bags. These factors limit the upside for prices in the longer term.

Type	2025/26 Forecast (million bags)	Year-on-Year Change
Arabica	95.52	-4.7%
Robusta	83.33	+10.9%
Global Total	178.85	+2.0%

Strait of Hormuz Closure Supports Prices

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global coffee supplies, supporting prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters. This geopolitical factor adds another layer of uncertainty to the market.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Moves

Q: Why did coffee prices jump today?

A: Because of forecasts for heavy rain in Brazil’s coffee regions, which could delay the harvest and affect quality.

Q: How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil and damage tree flowering, reducing next year’s crop and supporting higher prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Higher Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which tends to cap price gains in the medium term.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica inventories fell to 402,709 bags, a 6.5‑month low; robusta inventories near two‑year lows.

Q: Will prices continue to rise?

A: It depends on weather developments in Brazil, the severity of any El Niño impact, and geopolitical tensions.

The coffee market faces heightened uncertainty. While large surplus expectations remain in the background, current rains, El Niño risks, and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are reshaping the balance. Investors are closely watching weather developments in Brazil and inventory trends.

Prepared and edited by: Coffee World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: June 12, 2026

Japan Meteorological Agency Confirms El Niño, Lifting Coffee Prices

Posted on June 11, 2026June 11, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 11, 2026

Japan Meteorological Agency Confirms El Niño, Lifting Coffee Prices

Key Takeaways:

July arabica closed up 1.64% and July robusta up 1.85% after Japan confirmed El Niño formation.
El Niño could bring months of floods, droughts, and temperature swings, threatening coffee production in Asia and South America.
Arabica had fallen to a 19-month low on Tuesday amid forecasts of a bumper Brazil crop.
USDA FAS forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year on year.
Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in January-May 2026, pressuring robusta.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 6.5-month low of 402,709 bags on Wednesday.
NOAA estimates a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” that could be the strongest on record.

Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Wednesday as short covering emerged after the Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño weather pattern had formed across the equatorial Pacific. This sets the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

July arabica coffee closed up 1.64%, and July robusta closed up 1.85%. The rally followed Tuesday’s declines, when arabica fell to a 19-month low and robusta slid to a two-month low amid expectations of a bumper Brazilian crop this year.

Record Brazil Crop Forecast Still Weighs on Prices

Last Wednesday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year on year. Rabobank also raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags from 7.0 million bags previously.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest would increase by 12% to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group projected a record 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s 75.4 million bag forecast. StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags on March 12. StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025 – the largest surplus in six years.

Source	Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS	71.9
Coffee Trading Academy	71.4
Marex Group	75.9
Sucafina	75.4
StoneX	75.3

Strong Vietnam Exports Pressure Robusta; Inventories Fall

Last Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose 7.9% year on year to 922,000 metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

In contrast, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 6.5-month low of 402,709 bags on Wednesday. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 and are now slightly higher at 3,713 lots. The decline in inventories provides some support to prices.

El Niño Confirmation Raises Concerns; Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Persist

The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed that an El Niño weather pattern has formed across the equatorial Pacific. This could bring months of floods, droughts, and temperature swings that may hinder coffee production in Asia and South America. Coffee trader Commercial stated that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could be the strongest on record.

Furthermore, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

Mixed Outlook for Global Production and Stocks

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3% to 138.658 million bags. The USDA FAS bi-annual report on December 18 projected that 2025/26 world coffee production will increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to fall 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production rises 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

The USDA FAS also forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. This decline reflects strong global demand and persistent supply chain pressures.

Type	2025/26 Forecast (million bags)	Year-on-Year Change
Arabica	95.52	-4.7%
Robusta	83.33	+10.9%
Global Total	178.85	+2.0%

Frequently Asked Questions About El Niño and Coffee Prices

Q: Why did coffee prices rise after the El Niño confirmation?

A: Because El Niño can cause floods and droughts that hinder coffee production in Asia and South America, reducing supply and lifting prices.

Q: What is the probability of a “Super El Niño” this year?

A: NOAA estimates a 67% chance of a Super El Niño, which could be the strongest on record.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports affect robusta prices?

A: Higher Vietnamese exports increase global robusta supply, putting downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of ICE arabica inventories?

A: They fell to a 6.5-month low of 402,709 bags on Wednesday.

Q: What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?

A: StoneX expects a surplus of 10 million bags, the largest in six years, but El Niño could alter this outlook.

The coffee market remains caught between large surplus expectations on one hand and climate risks from El Niño plus geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz on the other. Confirmation of El Niño adds a new layer of uncertainty and could reshape market balances in the coming months.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: June 11, 2026

Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Prices

Posted on June 8, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 8, 2026

Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Prices

Key Takeaways:

July arabica futures fell 0.37% today; July robusta rose 0.60%.
Arabica hit a 19-month low last week, robusta a 7-week low.
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year on year.
Rabobank raised its global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags.
Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 5.75-month low of 419,504 bags.
El Niño risks and Strait of Hormuz closure provide price support.

Coffee prices traded mixed today as the ongoing harvest in Brazil continues to weigh on prices. July arabica futures fell 0.37%, while July robusta rose 0.60%. Weakness in the Brazilian real, which fell to a two-month low against the dollar, also pressured prices by encouraging export sales from Brazilian producers.

Last week, arabica fell to a 19-month low, and robusta slid to a seven-week low. The outlook for a record Brazil coffee crop remains the primary bearish factor, though some supportive elements exist.

Record Brazil Crop Forecast Weighs on Prices

Last Wednesday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags. That is a 14% increase year on year. Rabobank also raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags, up from 7.0 million bags previously.

As a result, coffee prices have trended lower over the past six weeks amid an improved global supply outlook. StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025. That would be the largest surplus in six years.

Source	Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS	71.9
Coffee Trading Academy	71.4
Marex Group	75.9
Sucafina	75.4
StoneX	75.3

Strong Vietnam Exports Pressure Robusta; Inventories Fall

In contrast, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 5.75-month low of 419,504 bags last Friday. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 and are now slightly higher at 3,732 lots. The decline in inventories provides some support to prices.

El Niño Concerns and Strait Disruptions Support Prices

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial stated that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. That would damage the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year. There is a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”

Moreover, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

On the bearish side, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3% to 138.658 million bags. The USDA FAS bi-annual report on December 18 projected that 2025/26 world coffee production will increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to fall 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production rises 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

Type	2025/26 Forecast (million bags)	Year-on-Year Change
Arabica	95.52	-4.7%
Robusta	83.33	+10.9%
Global Total	178.85	+2.0%

Ending Stocks Continue to Decline

The USDA FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. This decline comes despite higher production expectations. It reflects strong global demand and persistent supply chain pressures.

However, prices may face additional pressure if large surplus forecasts materialize, especially with recovering production in Brazil and Vietnam. Investors remain watchful of weather developments in South America and geopolitical tensions in the Arabian Gulf region.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why are arabica prices falling despite lower exchange inventories?

A: Because of record Brazil crop forecasts and rising Vietnam exports, which increase global supply and weigh on prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports affect robusta prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase global robusta supply, putting downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil, harming tree flowering and reducing next year’s crop. This would support higher prices.

Q: How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect the coffee market?

A: The closure disrupts shipping routes and raises transport, insurance, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

Q: What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?

A: StoneX expects the surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years, driven by higher production in Brazil and Vietnam.

The coffee market remains torn between large surplus expectations on one hand and tight spot supplies, weather risks, and geopolitical tensions on the other. Investors continue to monitor exchange inventories and weather developments in Brazil closely.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: June 8, 2026

Arabica Coffee Rebounds Amid Tight Spot Market Supplies

Posted on June 5, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 5, 2026

Recent trends show that arabica coffee has experienced a rebound in the spot market, drawing attention from both traders and coffee enthusiasts. In this article, we will examine the key developments and analysis surrounding the arabica coffee rebound spot market and what it means for industry stakeholders. If you are following arabica coffee rebound spot market news, understanding arabica coffee rebound spot market conditions is important for those looking to make sense of price fluctuations and opportunities in the industry.

Arabica Coffee Rebounds Amid Tight Spot Market Supplies

Key Highlights:

July arabica coffee futures rose 0.34% after hitting a 19-month low.
ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.75-month low on Thursday.
A record Brazil 2026/27 crop forecast is weighing on prices.
Rabobank raised its global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags.
Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026.
El Niño could delay rains in Brazil and hurt next year’s crop.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global coffee supplies.

Arabica coffee futures rebounded from a 19-month low today. July arabica rose 0.34%, while July robusta fell 1.34%. The rebound was driven by short covering amid persistent tightness in the spot market. ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 3.75-month low on Thursday.

Therefore, the market remains mixed. Improved global supply expectations have pushed prices lower over the past six weeks. However, near-term supply tightness and geopolitical risks provide support.

Record Brazil Crop Forecast Weighs on Prices

On Wednesday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags. This represents a 14% increase year on year. In addition, Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags, up from 7.0 million bags previously.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest would increase by 12% to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina‘s forecast of 75.4 million bags. StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags on March 12.

As a result, coffee prices have trended lower over the past six weeks. StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025. This would be the largest surplus in six years.

Source	Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS	71.9
Coffee Trading Academy	71.4
Marex Group	75.9
Sucafina	75.4
StoneX	75.3

Strong Vietnam Exports Pressure Robusta; Inventories Fall

On Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose 7.9% year on year to 922,000 metric tons. Moreover, Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

In contrast, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.75-month low of 426,063 bags on Thursday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories dropped to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15. They are now slightly higher at 3,732 lots.

El Niño and Strait of Hormuz Threaten Supplies

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial stated that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. This would damage the 2026/27 crop.

Furthermore, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by increasing shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs. This raises costs for coffee importers and roasters.

Type	2025/26 Forecast (million bags)	Year-over-Year Change
Arabica	95.52	-4.7%
Robusta	83.33	+10.9%
Global Total	178.85	+2.0%

Ending Stocks Continue to Decline

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why did arabica coffee prices rebound despite record Brazil crop forecasts?

A: Due to short covering and tight spot market supplies. ICE monitored inventories fell to a 3.75-month low.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports affect robusta prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase global robusta supply, putting downward pressure on prices. July robusta futures fell 1.34% today.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil, harming tree flowering and reducing next year’s crop. This would support higher prices.

Q: How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect the coffee market?

A: The closure disrupts shipping routes and raises transport, insurance, and fuel costs. This increases costs for importers and roasters.

Q: What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?

A: StoneX expects the surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years, driven by higher production in Brazil and Vietnam.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: June 5, 2026

Brazil Coffee Output to Reach Record 71.9M Bags

Posted on June 3, 2026June 3, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report BR2026-0025
Date: June 1, 2026

Brazil Coffee Output to Reach Record 71.9M Bags

Executive Summary

Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags, a 14% increase over the previous season.
Arabica output is expected to surge 25% to 47.5 million bags, ending five years of low harvests.
Robusta (conilon) production is forecast at 24.4 million bags, a slight decline from 25 million bags due to cooler weather and excess rain in some regions.
Exports for 2026/27 are projected to jump 30% to 49 million bags, supported by the record crop.
However, low stocks and fears of an El Niño event are making exporters cautious and holding back deals.
Domestic consumption remains stable at 22.39 million bags, with a 0.5% annual increase.
The “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” management technique is helping farmers optimize yields and reduce costs.

Brazil is set to produce a record 71.9 million 60‑kg bags of coffee in the 2026/27 season. This is a 14% increase over the previous cycle. The outlook is especially bright for arabica coffee.

Optimal weather in major growing regions has driven the recovery. The record crop follows five years of low arabica production caused by adverse conditions.

Exports are expected to surge 30% to 49 million bags. However, exporters remain cautious. They are holding back on deals because of low stocks and uncertainties about a possible El Niño event.

El Niño could affect the end of the current harvest and the 2027/28 cycle. These factors are strongly influencing coffee prices in the Brazilian market.

Production Outlook

The positive biennial cycle is a key driver. Arabica trees naturally produce more in alternating years. This year is a high‑yield year.

Favorable weather conditions and rising global prices have also encouraged farmers to expand their coffee areas. Technology has enabled higher planting density per hectare.

As a result, total coffee production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags. This is a 14% increase from the 63 million bags estimated for 2025/26.

The National Supply Company (CONAB) projects a slightly lower figure of 66.7 million bags. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) projects 65.1 million bags.

Both official agencies use different methodologies. They have historically provided lower estimates than the USDA.

Arabica and Robusta Performance

Arabica production is forecast to reach 47.5 million bags. This is a 25% increase over the previous cycle. The growth is driven by the positive biennial cycle and expanded cultivated area.

Technological improvements in crop management also played a role. Milder temperatures before flowering supported good crop development.

In contrast, robusta (conilon) production is forecast at 24.4 million bags. This is a slight decline from the 25 million bags estimated for 2025/26.

Colder weather and periods of excessive rainfall reduced yields in some main producing regions. The strong growth of the 2025/26 harvest also made it difficult to sustain the same level of production.

Producers are increasingly worried about climate change. Many are adjusting their practices, seeking more shaded areas, and looking for resilient varieties.

Regional Performance

Minas Gerais remains Brazil’s largest coffee‑producing state. It is forecast to harvest 34.1 million bags in 2026/27, up from 26.7 million in 2025/26.

The increase is due to the positive biennial cycle and better rainfall distribution. Rainfall was especially good before flowering and through March.

Espírito Santo, the second‑largest producer, is forecast at 21.4 million bags. Arabica production there is expected at 4.4 million bags, while robusta accounts for 17 million bags.

São Paulo, which grows only arabica, saw growth of more than 15% over the previous cycle, despite varied weather conditions.

Bahia has now become the second‑largest robusta producer, surpassing Rondônia. Its growth comes from advanced technology and high‑performance irrigated areas.

Rondônia is expected to see a 19% increase in robusta production. Favorable weather and the renewal of crops with higher‑yielding clonal plants are the main reasons.

Table 1: Brazilian Coffee Production by State (million 60‑kg bags)

State	2025/26	2026/27	Change
Minas Gerais	26.7	34.1	+27.7%
Espírito Santo	20.9	21.4	+2.4%
São Paulo	4.8	5.5	+14.6%
Bahia	4.7	5.2	+10.6%
Rondônia	2.3	2.8	+21.7%

Prices and Production Costs

Arabica prices rose sharply at the end of 2025 due to limited supply. However, prices started to decrease with the forecast of a larger harvest.

In April 2026, arabica coffee averaged BRL 1,811.87 (USD 360.03) per 60‑kg bag. This was a 5% drop from March and a 28% drop from April 2024.

Robusta prices fell even more. In April 2026, robusta traded at BRL 917.05 (USD 182.26). That was a 10% monthly drop and a 46% drop from April 2025.

Fears of an El Niño event have dampened sales activity. Many producers who were liquidating their remaining stocks are now holding back.

Production costs remain high. Fertilizer prices have risen, and freight costs have increased due to higher diesel prices. Diesel climbed about 24% in March 2026.

To cope, many farmers are adopting the “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” technique. This method divides farms into two plots and alternates skeleton pruning.

As a result, farmers focus only on the plot in its high‑yield phase. The system also increases organic matter and reduces fertilizer needs.

Domestic Consumption and Exports

Brazil’s domestic coffee consumption is forecast at 22.39 million bags for 2026/27. This is a slight 0.5% increase over the previous year.

Consumption declined by more than 2% in 2025 due to high prices. However, it recovered in early 2026 as supermarket prices dropped.

In the first four months of 2026, consumption rose 2% compared to the same period in 2025. The average Brazilian drinks about 3.8 cups of coffee per day.

Exports for 2026/27 are forecast to jump 30% to 49 million bags. This is based on the record harvest. However, low stocks have prevented even higher volumes.

Between January and April 2026, Brazil exported 11.5 million bags, a 24% decrease from the same period in 2025. April exports increased 1.2%, signaling a gradual recovery.

Germany remains the top buyer of Brazilian coffee, followed by the United States, Italy, Japan, and Belgium. The United States holds over 30% of the market share for Brazilian coffee imports.

Specialty coffees accounted for almost 18% of total exports in early 2026, though that volume was 36% lower than the same period in 2025.

Policy and Minimum Prices

The government has allocated BRL 7.37 billion for the 2026/27 Coffee Economy Defense Fund (FUNCAFE). The fund supports crop management, marketing financing, and working capital.

Minimum guaranteed prices for the 2026/27 harvest have been increased. Arabica now has a minimum price of BRL 792.53 per 60‑kg bag, a 20% rise from the previous season.

Robusta’s minimum price was set at BRL 556.97 per bag, a 12% increase. These prices are valid from April 2026 through March 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will Brazil produce in 2026/27?

Production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags, a 14% increase over the previous season.

Why is arabica production expected to surge?

The positive biennial cycle, expanded planted area, technological advances, and favorable weather are the main drivers.

Which Brazilian state produces the most coffee?

Minas Gerais is the largest producer, forecast at 34.1 million bags in 2026/27.

How will El Niño affect Brazilian coffee?

There is a 60% chance of El Niño between May and July 2026. It could negatively impact the 2027/28 harvest through higher temperatures and altered rainfall.

What is the “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” technique?

It is a management method that divides a farm into two plots and alternates skeleton pruning, allowing farmers to focus on high‑yield areas and reduce costs.

What are the main export destinations for Brazilian coffee?

Germany, the United States, Italy, Japan, and Belgium are the top buyers.

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília | Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report BR2026-0025 | Date: June 1, 2026

Coffee Prices Fall on Forecasts for Dry Weather in Brazil

Posted on May 29, 2026 by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World
Source: Barchart (Rich Asplund)
Date: May 29, 2026

Coffee Prices Fall on Forecasts for Dry Weather in Brazil

Executive Summary:

July arabica coffee futures closed down 2.70% on dry weather forecasts for Brazil, allowing the harvest to resume after rain delays.
July robusta coffee fell 2.14% amid improved global supply outlook and rising Vietnam exports.
Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is projected to increase 12% to 71.4 million bags, with some forecasts as high as 75.9 million bags.
StoneX expects the 2026 global coffee surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years.
Vietnam coffee exports rose 15.8% in January-April 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 3.25-month low of 440,785 bags, supporting prices.
El Niño risks and dry conditions in Vietnam remain supportive for prices, while the US dollar weakness added support.

Coffee prices retreated sharply on Thursday after updated weather forecasts called for dry conditions next week in Brazil’s coffee growing regions.

The dry weather will allow the coffee harvest to resume after being delayed this week by heavy rains. July arabica coffee futures closed down 2.70%, while July robusta coffee fell 2.14%.

Brazil Crop Outlook and Global Surplus

Coffee prices have trended lower over the past month, with arabica falling to a one and a half year low last Tuesday amid an improved global supply outlook.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest would increase 12% year on year to 71.4 million bags.

On March 19, Marex Group projected a record Brazilian crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags.

On March 12, StoneX raised its estimate to a record 75.3 million bags. StoneX also projected the 2026 global coffee surplus would expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the largest surplus in six years.

Vietnam Exports and Inventory Trends

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.

On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports in the first four months of 2026 rose 15.8% year on year to 810,000 metric tons.

Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to climb 6% to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags.

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past two months, which typically supports prices. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.25-month low of 440,785 bags on Thursday.

ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots on May 15, but recovered to a six week high of 3,968 lots last Friday.

Weather Risks and Other Factors

Global weather risks remain supportive for coffee prices. Excessive dryness in Vietnam is raising concerns about the robusta coffee crop.

Weather forecaster Vaisala said recent showers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands have been spotty, and more rain is needed to aid cherry growth.

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are also supportive for prices.

Coffee trader Commercial said El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, potentially hurting the 2026/27 crop.

NOAA estimates an 82% probability of El Niño between May and July, with a 67% chance of a Super El Niño.

Smaller exports from Brazil are supportive of coffee prices.

On May 12, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3% year on year to 2.76 million bags.

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies, increasing shipping rates, insurance, and fuel costs, which is bullish for prices.

USDA Production Forecasts

Indicator	2025/26 Forecast
World coffee production	178.848 million bags (+2.0% record)
Arabica production	95.515 million bags (-4.7%)
Robusta production	83.333 million bags (+10.9%)
Brazil production	63 million bags (-3.1%)
Vietnam production	30.8 million bags (+6.2%, 4-year high)
Ending stocks	20.148 million bags (-5.4%)

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service bi-annual report of December 18 projected world coffee production in 2025/26 would increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags.

Arabica production is expected to decrease 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to rise 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

The USDA also forecast Brazil’s coffee production to decline 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output would rise 6.2% to a four year high of 30.8 million bags.

Ending stocks are projected to fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why did coffee prices fall on Thursday?

Prices fell due to forecasts of dry weather in Brazil, allowing the coffee harvest to resume after being delayed by heavy rains.

2. How much did arabica and robusta drop?

July arabica fell 2.70%, and July robusta fell 2.14%.

3. What is the projected Brazilian coffee crop for 2026/27?

The Coffee Trading Academy projects 71.4 million bags, while Marex Group and StoneX project record crops above 75 million bags.

4. How much did Vietnam’s coffee exports increase?

Exports rose 15.8% in January-April 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.

5. What is the expected global coffee surplus for 2026?

StoneX projects a surplus of 10 million bags, the largest in six years.

6. How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

El Niño could delay rains in Brazil during the flowering season, potentially reducing the 2026/27 crop, which supports prices.

Qahwa World – Based on Barchart commodity bulletin by Rich Asplund.
Published: May 29, 2026