Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Prices

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 8, 2026

Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Prices

Key Takeaways:

  • July arabica futures fell 0.37% today; July robusta rose 0.60%.
  • Arabica hit a 19-month low last week, robusta a 7-week low.
  • USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year on year.
  • Rabobank raised its global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags.
  • Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026.
  • ICE arabica inventories fell to a 5.75-month low of 419,504 bags.
  • El Niño risks and Strait of Hormuz closure provide price support.

Coffee prices traded mixed today as the ongoing harvest in Brazil continues to weigh on prices. July arabica futures fell 0.37%, while July robusta rose 0.60%. Weakness in the Brazilian real, which fell to a two-month low against the dollar, also pressured prices by encouraging export sales from Brazilian producers.

Last week, arabica fell to a 19-month low, and robusta slid to a seven-week low. The outlook for a record Brazil coffee crop remains the primary bearish factor, though some supportive elements exist.

Record Brazil Crop Forecast Weighs on Prices

Last Wednesday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags. That is a 14% increase year on year. Rabobank also raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags, up from 7.0 million bags previously.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest would increase by 12% to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group projected a record 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s 75.4 million bag forecast. StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags on March 12.

As a result, coffee prices have trended lower over the past six weeks amid an improved global supply outlook. StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025. That would be the largest surplus in six years.

Source Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS 71.9
Coffee Trading Academy 71.4
Marex Group 75.9
Sucafina 75.4
StoneX 75.3

Strong Vietnam Exports Pressure Robusta; Inventories Fall

Last Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose 7.9% year on year to 922,000 metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

In contrast, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 5.75-month low of 419,504 bags last Friday. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 and are now slightly higher at 3,732 lots. The decline in inventories provides some support to prices.

El Niño Concerns and Strait Disruptions Support Prices

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial stated that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. That would damage the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year. There is a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”

Moreover, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

On the bearish side, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3% to 138.658 million bags. The USDA FAS bi-annual report on December 18 projected that 2025/26 world coffee production will increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to fall 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production rises 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

Type 2025/26 Forecast (million bags) Year-on-Year Change
Arabica 95.52 -4.7%
Robusta 83.33 +10.9%
Global Total 178.85 +2.0%

Ending Stocks Continue to Decline

The USDA FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. This decline comes despite higher production expectations. It reflects strong global demand and persistent supply chain pressures.

However, prices may face additional pressure if large surplus forecasts materialize, especially with recovering production in Brazil and Vietnam. Investors remain watchful of weather developments in South America and geopolitical tensions in the Arabian Gulf region.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why are arabica prices falling despite lower exchange inventories?

A: Because of record Brazil crop forecasts and rising Vietnam exports, which increase global supply and weigh on prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports affect robusta prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase global robusta supply, putting downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil, harming tree flowering and reducing next year’s crop. This would support higher prices.

Q: How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect the coffee market?

A: The closure disrupts shipping routes and raises transport, insurance, and fuel costs, increasing costs for importers and roasters.

Q: What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?

A: StoneX expects the surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years, driven by higher production in Brazil and Vietnam.

The coffee market remains torn between large surplus expectations on one hand and tight spot supplies, weather risks, and geopolitical tensions on the other. Investors continue to monitor exchange inventories and weather developments in Brazil closely.

 

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 8, 2026

What Must Be Done to Stop Exporting Raw Coffee and Selling It Cheap?

Source: Qahwa World World (translated from Vietnamese) |
Author: Nguyễn Nghĩa |
Date: June 7, 2026

What Must Be Done to Stop Exporting Raw Coffee and Selling It Cheap?

Key Points:

  • Lam Dong, Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing province, still exports nearly 100% raw beans at low prices.
  • In the first 4 months of 2026, export volume rose 9.4% but value fell 10.3% year-on-year.
  • Processing accounts for 60% of a coffee’s quality and refinement.
  • International standards (EUDR, Net Zero, ESG) are becoming mandatory market access requirements.
  • A strategic shift to deep processing and modern technology is urgently needed.
  • Cooperatives must become the pillar linking small farmers.

Despite being the largest coffee province in Vietnam, Lam Dong remains trapped in the cycle of exporting raw beans at low prices. The time has come for this strategic commodity to undergo a revolution, shifting from raw beans to refined processing to enhance value.

The Paradox of the “Brown Gold” Capital

In 2025, among agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports to key markets such as the European Union, coffee, together with seafood and cashew nuts, led the value, accounting for 49%, 15%, and 14% respectively.

In the first four months of 2026, Vietnam’s coffee export picture remained dynamic, with volume reaching approximately 791,090 tonnes and value reaching 3.66 billion USD. However, behind these numbers lies a troubling reality: export volume increased by 9.4%, but value decreased by 10.3% compared to the same period last year.

This decline exposes a fundamental weakness of the coffee industry: over-reliance on raw bean exports. Lam Dong province has the largest coffee growing area in the country, with about 314,000 hectares currently under harvest, average yield of 3.2 tonnes of green beans per hectare. The paradox is stark: nearly 100% of export output remains raw green beans. Yet processing accounts for up to 60% of a coffee’s flavour and refinement.

Technology as the Gateway to the Value Chain

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, Vietnam has joined a total of 17 bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements (FTAs). New generation FTAs such as EVFTA, CPTPP and RCEP open up favourable tariff opportunities, but the path is also full of technical barriers.

If Lam Dong continues with a small-scale, fragmented production model lacking long-term chain linkages, the coffee industry will be pushed into a weak position. “Large markets do not just buy coffee beans; they buy the ‘environmental ethics’ of the production process. International standards are becoming increasingly stringent: the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), Net Zero commitments, labour rights, and ESG governance standards are becoming mandatory passports for market access,” Mr. Tuan emphasised.

Standard / Requirement Impact on Coffee Exports
EUDR (Anti-deforestation) Traceability and proof of forest-free production
Net Zero / ESG Carbon footprint, social responsibility, governance
4C, Rainforest Alliance, VietGAP Minimum entry certificates for premium markets

What Must Be Done?

To stop exporting raw beans and selling cheap, Lam Dong’s coffee industry needs a restructuring strategy. The core focus is to strongly attract investment in deep processing technology. “We need to design and issue preferential policies on taxes, land funds, and green credit to invite large investors to build modern, large-scale integrated processing plants.

Attention should be paid to attracting investment in producing ground roasted coffee, specialty instant coffee for export. Only by boldly investing in modern drying technology can the value of coffee beans be multiplied,” shared Mr. Bach Thanh Tuan, Vice President of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association.

Alongside attracting investment, economists also argue that internal strength must be consolidated by promoting collective economic development. Cooperatives and co-operative groups must truly become the backbone to link small farm households, consolidate output, and thereby enhance negotiation and pricing power.

The shift from quantity to quality, from raw exports to refined processing, requires the joint effort of government, businesses, and farmers. When cultivation, care, and deep processing technology are prioritised, combined with market-oriented thinking, Lam Dong’s coffee beans will certainly shed the “cheap price tag” and confidently compete through the brand and value of the very land that grew them.

Original Vietnamese article by Nguyễn Nghĩa – Translated and adapted by Coffee World.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 7, 2026

The Mountain Knows: Running and Coffee at 2,400 Metres Above Addis Ababa

Source: Qahwa World – Special coverage from Addis Ababa |
Author: Tewodros Balcha |
Photographer: Buna Kurs & Inter American Coffee |
Date: June 7, 2026

The Mountain Knows: Running and Coffee at 2,400 Metres Above Addis Ababa

Key Takeaways:

  • Ethiopia gave the world both coffee and legendary distance runners. Both thrive at altitude.
  • The Entoto Park CBE Run happens on the first Saturday of every month – 5km, free, no prizes.
  • Haile Gebreselassie, the greatest distance runner, now grows coffee in the Sheka forest under his own name.
  • The Ethiopian coffee ceremony and long-distance running share the same wisdom: patience, surrender, respect for time.
  • At 2,400 metres, the air asks something of you. Runners and coffee cherries both mature slower – and better – at altitude.
  • This is not a race. It is a monthly community ritual: coffee, eucalyptus, and a mountain that knows what it means to show up.

On a Saturday morning in Addis Ababa, at 2,400 metres above sea level, somewhere between a cup of coffee and a finish line, I think I understood something about Ethiopia that no guidebook had managed to explain.

The bus from 6 Kilo area leaves at 6:30 in the morning and it is already full. Not full in the polite, managed way of a shuttle service — full in the way Addis Ababa is full of things: pressing, warm, alive with conversation in three languages at once. Someone has brought a thermos. The eucalyptus smell hits before the park gates do, that particular green-grey sharpness that belongs to Entoto and nowhere else. By the time we are winding up the hillside road in the half-dark, I notice that nobody on this bus is anxious. There is no pre-race tension of the kind I know from European starting pens. People are laughing. An older woman in a white compression sock and a bright yellow headband is asleep against the window. A teenager is filming a reel of the trees. It is June 6th, the first Saturday of the month, and we are going to run.

What Entoto Asks of You

Entoto Natural Park sits on the northern rim of Addis Ababa at somewhere between 2,400 and 3,000 metres. The city sprawls below it; the sky above it feels closer than it should. The air is genuinely different up here — not thin in the gasping, dramatic way of high-altitude mountaineering literature, but thin in a way you only notice a few minutes into exertion, when your lungs quietly inform you that the usual arrangement is not going to apply today.

The Entoto Park CBE Run has been going since late 2024, organized under the Great Ethiopian Run umbrella, supported by the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia’s CBE Birr Plus platform, and held on the first Saturday of every month. Five kilometres. Free entrance. Capped at 700 runners. Registration opens at 6 AM on the last Monday of the month and fills, reliably, fast.

The course is a masterpiece of honest cruelty. The organizers have named each kilometre after a bird — a decision that sounds whimsical until you are running it and realize the names are doing real descriptive work. Uphill, then descent, then a flat middle, then the steepest climb, then a final swoop to the finish. Five kilometres. Five birds. Five completely different conversations between your body and the road. Running the fourth kilometre this morning — steep asphalt between tall eucalyptus, the city somewhere invisible below — I found myself thinking about what it means to be built for something difficult. About whether the difficulty is the point.

A Crowd That Does Not Perform

There is a photograph I keep coming back to from this morning. Hundreds of people, hands raised, Ethiopian flags threading through the crowd, the Addis Ababa Tourism Commission banner marking the edge of the frame. The eucalyptus trees are tall and pale behind them. Everyone is mid-motion, mid-joy. What strikes me is that nobody is performing for the camera. This is not a branded moment — or rather, it is branded, the purple of the Commercial Bank’s CBE Run signage is everywhere — but the joy inside the frame is not manufactured. These are people who woke up early and got on a bus and came to a mountain to run five kilometres together, and they are visibly, plainly happy about it.

At Entoto this morning, the DJ was already playing when we arrived. Someone handed me a coffee — I will come back to the coffee — and I stood at the start area and thought: this is what running looks like when it has not been turned into content yet.

The Man Who Built This

Haile Gebreselassie is 51 years old and was at Entoto this morning. Two Olympic gold medals, four World Championship titles, 27 world records across distances from 1,500 metres to the marathon. He held the marathon world record for years. The Amharic messages circulating in the lead-up to today’s run included the line: ሀይሌ በእንጦጦ አብሮን አለ — Haile is with us at Entoto. Not WILL BE. IS. Present tense. As if his presence is already a fact of the mountain.

But what I find more interesting than the records is what Haile has done with the decades since them. He founded the Great Ethiopian Run in 2001, which has grown into the largest road race in Africa, with over 40,000 participants annually. He runs an annual Girls Run race in Addis, specifically to create space for young women. And he has built the Entoto Park CBE Run into something that functions as a monthly community ritual rather than a competitive event — there are no prizes for winners. No prizes for winners. Think about what that signals, especially under the banner of a man who spent his career winning things. It says: this run is not about hierarchy. It is about showing up.

The Cup Before the Gun

The Entoto Park CBE Run offers complimentary coffee before and after the race. This is listed in the race day services alongside the baggage area and the DJ set. It is not an afterthought or a sponsor activation. It is infrastructure. I drank mine standing at the edge of the starting area, in that specific quality of early Addis light — not yet warm, the eucalyptus still holding onto the night’s cold — and I thought about something I had been turning over for weeks. Ethiopia is the country that gave the world coffee. Coffea arabica is indigenous to the highlands of Ethiopia. Ethiopia also, with some consistency, gives the world its fastest distance runners. Two things — coffee and running — that the rest of the world imports from Ethiopia. Both growing at altitude. Both demanding patience and the willingness to suffer usefully. And now, on a mountain above Addis Ababa, being served one alongside the other, before 700 people go out into the eucalyptus together.

Haile’s Other Harvest

In 2014, Haile Gebreselassie became a coffee farmer. The Ethiopian government gave him 1,500 hectares of land in Yeppo Village, in the Sheka forests of southwestern Ethiopia. He transformed it into a coffee estate. The Sheka forest sits at 1,600 to 1,800 metres, within a zone recognized by UNESCO as a biosphere reserve. The farm is divided into more than 50 identifiable plots, each with specific varieties and processing methods. Washed and natural, and this year for the first time, honey processed. The coffee is called Haile Coffee. What I find moving about the enterprise is what Haile has said about it: “Coffee is such a big part of the culture in Ethiopia. We Ethiopians have a unique opportunity to share our culture with people around the world.” And then, characteristically, he reached for the language of athletics: “You need three things to win. Discipline, hard work and commitment. No one will make it without those three.” He is describing coffee farming the way he describes marathon training. The patience required to tend a coffee estate is the same patience required to run a 2:03 marathon. You cannot shortcut either.

What the Ceremony Knows That the Race Does Not

The Ethiopian coffee ceremony — bunna maflat — takes the better part of an hour. The green beans are washed and roasted over charcoal, slowly, until the smoke carries their particular smell. They are ground by hand. The coffee is brewed in a clay jebena and served in small handle-less cups. Three rounds: abol, tona, baraka. The third, baraka, means blessing. You cannot rush this. Long-distance running, done properly, operates on the same principle. Runners who go out too fast in the first kilometre pay for it in the fourth and fifth. The body has its own timeline and it will be respected. Both traditions encode this wisdom in ritual. The ceremony says: sit down, the coffee will take as long as it takes. The race says: start slow, find your rhythm, let the road come to you. These are the same instruction in different forms.

The Mountain This Morning

The first kilometre was uphill, lungs adjusting, the city falling away behind you faster than you would expect. The eucalyptus are planted in long rows and the light comes through them in columns. There is no sound except breathing and footfall. The second kilometre, descending, was where I remembered why I run. The fourth kilometre nearly broke me. At 2,400 metres, steep uphill deep into a run that already has climbing in its legs, is a genuine negotiation between your will and your physiology. And then the final descent. The finish line. Afterward I had another coffee.

Why This Matters – For Both Worlds

If you are a coffee person: Ethiopia is not just an origin. It is the place where coffee is understood as a practice, a social technology, a form of time kept together. The bunna ceremony is not a tourist experience — it is how Ethiopians structure hospitality and community. If you are a runner: the Entoto Park CBE Run is what community running looks like when it is not organized primarily as content. No prizes. A DJ. Complimentary coffee. 700 people on a mountain. And if you belong to both worlds simultaneously: there is something almost embarrassingly perfect about standing at a starting line at altitude in the country that invented coffee, holding a cup of coffee, about to run through a forest, before a legend who decided that the same discipline, hard work, and commitment that made him a champion could grow a great cup of coffee in a UNESCO biosphere reserve.

Baraka

The third cup in the Ethiopian coffee ceremony is the blessing. By the time I drank mine today — standing near the finish line, the race over, the crowd dispersing slowly into the eucalyptus morning — the Entoto light had changed completely. I thought about Haile on his farm in Sheka, applying to coffee the same three things he applied to running: discipline, hard work, commitment. I thought about altitude — how it shapes coffee cherries by slowing their maturation, concentrating their sugars and acids into something more complex. How it shapes runners’ bodies by demanding more of their cardiovascular systems. How Entoto, right now, on the first Saturday of every month, is doing both things simultaneously — maturing runners slowly, in the thin air, at 2,400 metres, into something more than they were at the start line. The coffee was good. The run was hard. Neither needed to be anything else.


Event information: The Entoto Park CBE Run takes place on the first Saturday of every month in Entoto Natural Park, Addis Ababa. Registration opens at 6:00 AM on the last Monday of the month via CBE Birr Plus. Transport from 6 Kilo from 6:30 AM. Free entrance. Complimentary coffee included. Haile Coffee is available internationally at haile.coffee.

Coverage by Qahwa World × Buna Kurs – Addis Ababa. Photography by Buna Kurs and Inter American Coffee.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 7, 2026

US Coffee Consumption 2026 by the Numbers

Source: National Coffee Association (NCA) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 6, 2026

US Coffee Consumption 2026 by the Numbers: The Rise of Specialty Coffee and What It Means for Global Markets

Key Numbers:

  • 66% of American adults drank coffee yesterday – more than any other beverage including water.
  • 47% drank specialty coffee daily, surpassing traditional coffee (42%).
  • 58% had specialty coffee in the past week, a 10-point increase since 2021.
  • 45% of Americans consumed espresso-based beverages weekly (lattes, cappuccinos, espressos).
  • Age group 25-39 leads consumption: 69% weekly for specialty coffee.
  • Hispanic Americans are the highest specialty coffee consumers (67% weekly).
  • Northeast and West regions have the highest consumption (64% and 61% weekly).
  • Medium roast is the most popular (58%), followed by dark (39%) and light (13%).

The 2026 National Coffee Data Trends report, released by the National Coffee Association (NCA), confirms that coffee remains America’s favorite beverage. 66% of adults drank coffee yesterday, ahead of tap or bottled water. However, the real story lies in a deep shift within the US market.

For the first time, specialty coffee is achieving sustainable growth over traditional coffee. This shift reflects changing consumer tastes and carries major implications for global production, arabica and robusta futures, roasting strategies, and distribution worldwide. In this report, we present the most revealing numbers and analyze what they mean for the global coffee market.

1. Daily and Weekly Consumption Basics

January 2026 data shows specialty coffee outpacing traditional coffee in daily consumption for the first time on a broad scale. Daily specialty coffee penetration reached 47%, versus 42% for traditional coffee. On a weekly basis, 58% of Americans drank specialty coffee, compared to 62% for traditional coffee – a very close gap.

Coffee Type Daily Penetration Weekly Penetration
Specialty Coffee 47% 58%
Traditional Coffee 42% 62%
Espresso Based Beverages (EBBs) 29% 45%
Cold Specialty Beverages (N-EBBs)* 17% 27%

* Includes cold brew, frozen blended coffee, and nitro coffee.

Since 2021, weekly specialty coffee consumption has increased by 10 percentage points (from 48% to 58%). Meanwhile, weekly traditional coffee consumption has remained stable at around 62%. This means nearly all growth in the US coffee market comes from the specialty segment.

2. Who Drinks Specialty Coffee? Demographic Profile

By age: The 25-39 age group is the strongest driver. 69% of them drank specialty coffee in the past week, versus only 46% of those aged 60+. Moreover, 60% of the 25-39 group consumed espresso beverages, and 40% drank cold specialty drinks. Young adults (18-24) prefer specialty (50%) over traditional (40%), signaling a lasting generational shift.

Age Group Specialty (Weekly) Espresso Beverages Cold Specialty
18-24 50% 38% 33%
25-39 69% 60% 40%
40-59 60% 47% 27%
60+ 46% 30% 13%

By ethnicity: Hispanic Americans are the highest specialty coffee consumers (67% weekly), followed by Asian Americans (64%). African Americans (57%) and Caucasian Americans (56%) follow. Hispanic Americans also lead in espresso beverages (57%) and cold specialty drinks (39%).

By region: The Northeast leads with 64% weekly specialty consumption, followed by the West (61%), then the South (57%), and finally the Midwest (49%).

3. How Do Americans Drink Their Specialty Coffee?

Temperature: 43% prefer hot specialty coffee, while 32% consume it cold. In contrast, traditional coffee is 54% hot and only 13% cold. Specialty coffee thus dominates the cold beverage market year-round, even in January.

Roast level: Medium roast is the most popular (58%), followed by dark roast (39%), then light roast (13%). This confirms a preference for balanced, classic flavors.

Additives (sweeteners and whiteners): 59% of specialty coffee drinkers use sweeteners or flavored syrup. 58% use whiteners (milk, cream, or milk alternatives). The 25-39 age group records the highest sweetener usage (70%). Hispanic Americans are more likely to add white sugar and honey.

Out-of-home preparation: 36% of specialty coffee drinkers buy their coffee away from home (cafés, restaurants, workplaces), compared to only 23% of traditional drinkers. This highlights the importance of the hospitality and café sector for specialty coffee growth.

4. What Do These Numbers Mean for the Global Coffee Market?

The US shift to specialty coffee is not just a local taste change; it is a strong signal for global markets.

1. Demand for high-quality arabica will increase: Specialty coffee’s heavy reliance on arabica puts pressure on producing countries to increase output while maintaining quality. However, a record Brazil 2026/27 crop (71.9 million bags) may create a temporary surplus, but strong US demand will absorb much of it.

2. Arabica prices may find support despite surplus: Prices usually fall when supply rises. Yet 58% of Americans drinking specialty coffee weekly means that any production increase may be met by rising consumption, limiting price collapse. Additionally, tight spot supplies (falling exchange inventories) support prices in the short term.

3. Robusta market faces pressure: As traditional coffee’s share declines, Vietnam increases its robusta exports. This could lead to a robusta surplus and downward pressure on prices. Roasters will need to find new uses for robusta.

4. Flavor innovation and new formats are essential: 35% of specialty coffee drinkers consider flavor part of the definition of “specialty coffee.” The strong preference for sweet flavors forces producers to develop blends that meet these tastes. Meanwhile, the popularity of cold drinks requires investment in chilled distribution channels.

5. Demographic shifts reshape global marketing: Specialty coffee’s concentration among 25-39 year olds and Hispanic Americans means brands must redirect their campaigns and sales channels. Higher out-of-home consumption (36%) benefits global café chains.

6. Supply chain and climate challenges remain: With El Niño and Strait of Hormuz disruptions persisting, specialty coffee supply chains become more fragile. Prices may experience sharp volatility despite a theoretical surplus.

5. What Does This Mean for the Arab World, Especially the Gulf?

The Gulf market is experiencing massive growth in specialty coffee. US data confirms this is a global trend. For coffee-importing Arab countries, this means:

  • Higher prices: If strong US demand continues, arabica prices may rise globally, increasing import costs for local roasters and cafés.
  • Opportunity for differentiation: Arab cafés can play on distinctive flavors (spice, floral, fruit) that US specialty drinkers are open to. This opens doors for collaboration with US roasters or exporting innovative Arab blends.
  • Need for investment in education and training: To meet global quality standards, the Gulf coffee sector must strengthen Q Grader and sensory analysis programs, just as labs like Kanamori Coffee Lab do in Japan.

Frequently Asked Questions About US Coffee Consumption 2026

Q: What percentage of Americans drink coffee daily compared to other beverages?

A: 66% drink coffee daily, making it the most consumed beverage ahead of tap or bottled water.

Q: Has specialty coffee truly overtaken traditional coffee?

A: In daily consumption, yes: 47% specialty vs. 42% traditional. Weekly, traditional still leads slightly (62% vs. 58%).

Q: Which age group consumes the most specialty coffee?

A: The 25-39 age group, at 69% weekly.

Q: What is the most popular roast in America?

A: Medium roast (58%), followed by dark (39%), then light (13%).

Q: How do these numbers affect global coffee prices?

A: Strong US demand for arabica supports prices, while Brazil’s record crop may create temporary surplus. Robusta prices trend downward due to Vietnam exports.

Q: Which flavors do US specialty coffee drinkers prefer most?

A: Sweet flavors: chocolate (85%), caramel and brown sugar (78%), vanilla (79%).

The 2026 data shows that specialty coffee is no longer a luxury but the backbone of the US coffee market. This sends clear messages to producers, roasters, and investors worldwide: quality, innovation, and understanding demographic shifts are the keys to success in the coming decade.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on the National Coffee Association’s 2026 National Coffee Data Trends Specialty Coffee Report.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 6, 2026

Lisbon to Host World of Coffee Europe 2027, First Time in Portugal

Source: Specialty Coffee Association |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 5, 2026

Lisbon to Host World of Coffee Europe 2027, First Time in Portugal

Key Highlights:

  • The Specialty Coffee Association announces Lisbon as host for World of Coffee Europe in June 2027.
  • This is the first time the event will take place in Portugal.
  • The venue is the Lisbon Exhibition and Congress Centre in the Parque das Nações district.
  • Three world championships will be held: Latte Art, Coffee in Good Spirits, and Cezve/Ibrik.
  • SCA CEO praises Lisbon’s strategic location and cultural exchange potential.
  • The event aims to unite the specialty coffee industry globally.
  • Exhibitor and sponsor registration is now open via the official website.

The Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) has announced that World of Coffee Europe 2027 will take place from June 17 to 19, 2027. The Lisbon Exhibition and Congress Centre will serve as the official venue. This marks the first time Portugal has hosted this global event.

The announcement continues the SCA’s mission to unite the specialty coffee industry worldwide. The event aims to advance coffee excellence, foster business growth, and support professional development through education, innovation, and collaboration.

Lisbon Exhibition Centre: A Strategic Venue in the Heart of the Capital

The Lisbon Exhibition and Congress Centre (FIL) is located in the dynamic Parque das Nações district. This area is one of Lisbon’s most vibrant and well-connected neighbourhoods. The venue combines contemporary design with flexible event infrastructure. It offers plenary halls, breakout spaces, one-stop-shop services, and state-of-the-art facilities.

Furthermore, the centre has excellent access from Lisbon’s international airport. Hotels, local transport hubs, dining, and cultural attractions are all within easy reach. This makes it an ideal environment for international business and collaboration.

Item Details
Event Full Name World of Coffee Europe 2027
Dates June 17–19, 2027
Venue Lisbon Exhibition and Congress Centre (FIL)
District Parque das Nações, Lisbon, Portugal
First time in Portugal Yes

CEO: Lisbon Understands Cultural Exchange

Yannis Apostolopoulos, CEO of the Specialty Coffee Association, said: “World of Coffee exists to bring our global industry together in a way that creates real value for businesses, for professionals, and for the future of specialty coffee.” He added: “Lisbon is a city that understands that kind of exchange. It sits at the intersection of cultures and trade relationships that are fundamental to our value chain.”

Apostolopoulos continued: “The conversations at World of Coffee Lisbon will shape how our industry innovates, collaborates, and builds the resilience and sustainability that specialty coffee demands in the years ahead.”

Three World Championships to Take Place in Lisbon

World of Coffee Europe 2027 will host three major international competitions. These are the World Latte Art Championship, the World Coffee in Good Spirits Championship, and the Cezve/Ibrik Championship. Champions in each discipline will be crowned on the final day of the show.

These championships attract top talent from around the world. They also provide an opportunity to showcase skill and creativity in specialty coffee.

Championship Discipline
World Latte Art Championship Milk painting art
World Coffee in Good Spirits Championship Innovative coffee and alcohol drinks
Cezve/Ibrik Championship Traditional brewing methods

Exhibitor and Sponsor Registration Open

The Specialty Coffee Association is now accepting enquiries from prospective exhibitors and sponsors. Interested parties can visit the official event website for full information and participation terms. The event is expected to attract major coffee companies, equipment manufacturers, and service providers from around the world.

It is worth noting that Lisbon has become a preferred destination in Europe due to its culture and connectivity. This makes it an ideal choice for a global event of this scale.

Frequently Asked Questions About World of Coffee Europe 2027

Q: When will the event take place?

A: June 17 to 19, 2027.

Q: Where exactly will it be held?

A: At the Lisbon Exhibition and Congress Centre (FIL) in the Parque das Nações district.

Q: Is this the first time in Portugal?

A: Yes, this is the first World of Coffee event in Portugal.

Q: What championships will be held?

A: Three: Latte Art, Coffee in Good Spirits, and Cezve/Ibrik.

Q: How can I register as an exhibitor?

A: Visit the official website europe.worldofcoffee.org for details.

World of Coffee Europe is the premier event in the specialty coffee sector on the continent. Do not miss the opportunity to attend this global gathering in Lisbon 2027. Follow our updates for the latest news and registration details.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a press release from the Specialty Coffee Association issued June 5, 2026.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 5, 2026

Arabica Coffee Rebounds Amid Tight Spot Market Supplies

Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 5, 2026

Recent trends show that arabica coffee has experienced a rebound in the spot market, drawing attention from both traders and coffee enthusiasts. In this article, we will examine the key developments and analysis surrounding the arabica coffee rebound spot market and what it means for industry stakeholders. If you are following arabica coffee rebound spot market news, understanding arabica coffee rebound spot market conditions is important for those looking to make sense of price fluctuations and opportunities in the industry.

Arabica Coffee Rebounds Amid Tight Spot Market Supplies

Key Highlights:

  • July arabica coffee futures rose 0.34% after hitting a 19-month low.
  • ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.75-month low on Thursday.
  • A record Brazil 2026/27 crop forecast is weighing on prices.
  • Rabobank raised its global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags.
  • Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026.
  • El Niño could delay rains in Brazil and hurt next year’s crop.
  • The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global coffee supplies.

Arabica coffee futures rebounded from a 19-month low today. July arabica rose 0.34%, while July robusta fell 1.34%. The rebound was driven by short covering amid persistent tightness in the spot market. ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 3.75-month low on Thursday.

Therefore, the market remains mixed. Improved global supply expectations have pushed prices lower over the past six weeks. However, near-term supply tightness and geopolitical risks provide support.

Record Brazil Crop Forecast Weighs on Prices

On Wednesday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags. This represents a 14% increase year on year. In addition, Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags, up from 7.0 million bags previously.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest would increase by 12% to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina‘s forecast of 75.4 million bags. StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags on March 12.

As a result, coffee prices have trended lower over the past six weeks. StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025. This would be the largest surplus in six years.

Source Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS 71.9
Coffee Trading Academy 71.4
Marex Group 75.9
Sucafina 75.4
StoneX 75.3

Strong Vietnam Exports Pressure Robusta; Inventories Fall

On Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose 7.9% year on year to 922,000 metric tons. Moreover, Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

In contrast, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.75-month low of 426,063 bags on Thursday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories dropped to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15. They are now slightly higher at 3,732 lots.

El Niño and Strait of Hormuz Threaten Supplies

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial stated that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. This would damage the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year. There is a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”

Furthermore, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by increasing shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs. This raises costs for coffee importers and roasters.

On the bearish side, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3% to 138.658 million bags. The USDA FAS bi-annual report on December 18 projected that 2025/26 world coffee production will increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to fall 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production rises 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

Type 2025/26 Forecast (million bags) Year-over-Year Change
Arabica 95.52 -4.7%
Robusta 83.33 +10.9%
Global Total 178.85 +2.0%

Ending Stocks Continue to Decline

The USDA FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. This decline comes despite higher production expectations. It reflects strong global demand and continued supply chain pressures.

However, prices may face additional pressure if large surplus forecasts materialize, especially with recovering production in Brazil and Vietnam. Investors remain watchful of weather developments in South America and geopolitical tensions in the Arabian Gulf region.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why did arabica coffee prices rebound despite record Brazil crop forecasts?

A: Due to short covering and tight spot market supplies. ICE monitored inventories fell to a 3.75-month low.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports affect robusta prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase global robusta supply, putting downward pressure on prices. July robusta futures fell 1.34% today.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil, harming tree flowering and reducing next year’s crop. This would support higher prices.

Q: How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect the coffee market?

A: The closure disrupts shipping routes and raises transport, insurance, and fuel costs. This increases costs for importers and roasters.

Q: What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?

A: StoneX expects the surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years, driven by higher production in Brazil and Vietnam.

The coffee market remains torn between large surplus expectations on one hand and tight spot supplies, weather risks, and geopolitical tensions on the other. Investors continue to monitor exchange inventories and weather developments in Brazil closely.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 5, 2026

Dubai Hosts Coffee Break Vol. 2 with Conversations Shaping the City’s Future

Source: Coffee World |
Author: Events Unit |
Date: June 5, 2026

Dubai Hosts Coffee Break Vol. 2 with Conversations Shaping the City’s Future

Key Information:

  • “Coffee Break Vol. 2” takes place at Time Out Market, Souk Al Bahar, Dubai.
  • Organized in collaboration with Mokha 1450 Luxury Specialty Coffee.
  • Theme: “Dubai’s next chapter, told over coffee.”
  • Five prominent speakers from business, media, hospitality, wellness, and food culture.
  • Notable speaker: Garfield Kerr, former President of the Specialty Coffee Association.
  • Tickets start at 59 AED, including coffee and snacks.
  • Premium package at 159 AED includes a 100 AED Time Out Market card.

Dubai will soon host the second edition of “Coffee Break Vol. 2″, offering a new model for community dialogue. The event takes place on Level 3 of Souk Al Bahar, at the Time Out Market stage. It is organized in collaboration with Mokha 1450 Luxury Specialty Coffee.

The event carries a distinctive theme: “Dubai’s next chapter, told over coffee.” It aims to bring together a curated group of thought leaders and experts from multiple fields. They will discuss the ideas, businesses, and communities shaping Dubai’s next chapter.

Prominent Speakers from Five Key Sectors

“Coffee Break Vol. 2” features five speakers representing different sectors. Each brings a unique perspective on Dubai’s evolution. They are:

Name Position / Expertise
Zeena Zalamea Broadcaster, producer, entrepreneur
Garfield Kerr Lawyer, CEO of Mokha 1450, former SCA President
Alexandra Venison Journalist, Founder of Beautilist
JP Anglo Founder of Kooya, Filipino food advocate
Ziad Kamel Founder & CEO of Rosy Hospitality and multiple restaurant brands

In addition, the discussion will explore key themes including Dubai’s evolving economy, the future of hospitality and wellbeing, the role of media in shaping the city’s narrative, and the communities being built within it.

Event Location and Ticket Packages

The event takes place at the Stage Area in Time Out Market Dubai, located on Level 3 of Souk Al Bahar, Downtown Dubai. Guests can access Souk Al Bahar parking and validate their token at Atrium Bar to receive 4 hours of complimentary parking.

Ticket options are as follows:

  • 59 AED: Includes access to the conversation, coffee, and snacks.
  • 159 AED: Includes access, coffee, snacks, and a Time Out Market Dubai Card valued at 100 AED to be redeemed across the Market’s vendors and bars on the same day.

However, please note the terms: smoking is permitted only in designated areas. No refunds will be issued for no-shows or for guests arriving more than 20 minutes after the event starts. Therefore, guests are encouraged to arrive early to avoid any delays.

Strategic Partnership with Mokha 1450

This event is organized in collaboration with Mokha 1450 Luxury Specialty Coffee. This partnership extends the brand’s vision of supporting inspiring community dialogues. Furthermore, the presence of Garfield Kerr, former President of the Specialty Coffee Association, adds deep professional insight to discussions about coffee’s role in shaping urban spaces.

Additionally, the diversity of speakers reflects Dubai’s rapid evolution as a global hub for business, media, and culture. The event confirms that coffee is no longer just a beverage, but a tool for dialogue and for building the future.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Break Vol. 2

Q: When will the event take place?

A: The exact date has not been announced yet. Follow Time Out Market and Mokha 1450’s official channels for updates.

Q: Where exactly is the event located?

A: On Level 3 of Souk Al Bahar, Downtown Dubai, at the Time Out Market Dubai stage area.

Q: How can I purchase tickets?

A: The booking link will be announced soon via official channels. Early booking is recommended due to limited capacity.

Q: Does the ticket price include parking?

A: Guests can get 4 hours of complimentary parking after validating their ticket at Atrium Bar.

Q: Will there be an opportunity to ask questions to the speakers?

A: Yes, the event is designed as an open conversation, and time will be allocated for Q&A.

Do not miss the chance to be part of the conversation shaping Dubai’s new chapter. Tickets are limited. The dialogue begins when you sit down with a cup of coffee. Follow our official channels to know when booking opens.

Prepared by: Coffee World team – in collaboration with Mokha 1450 and Time Out Market Dubai.

All rights reserved. Republishing with attribution is permitted.

Publication date: June 5, 2026

Brazil Coffee Output to Reach Record 71.9M Bags

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report BR2026-0025
Date: June 1, 2026

Brazil Coffee Output to Reach Record 71.9M Bags

Executive Summary

  • Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags, a 14% increase over the previous season.
  • Arabica output is expected to surge 25% to 47.5 million bags, ending five years of low harvests.
  • Robusta (conilon) production is forecast at 24.4 million bags, a slight decline from 25 million bags due to cooler weather and excess rain in some regions.
  • Exports for 2026/27 are projected to jump 30% to 49 million bags, supported by the record crop.
  • However, low stocks and fears of an El Niño event are making exporters cautious and holding back deals.
  • Domestic consumption remains stable at 22.39 million bags, with a 0.5% annual increase.
  • The “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” management technique is helping farmers optimize yields and reduce costs.

Brazil is set to produce a record 71.9 million 60‑kg bags of coffee in the 2026/27 season. This is a 14% increase over the previous cycle. The outlook is especially bright for arabica coffee.

Optimal weather in major growing regions has driven the recovery. The record crop follows five years of low arabica production caused by adverse conditions.

Exports are expected to surge 30% to 49 million bags. However, exporters remain cautious. They are holding back on deals because of low stocks and uncertainties about a possible El Niño event.

El Niño could affect the end of the current harvest and the 2027/28 cycle. These factors are strongly influencing coffee prices in the Brazilian market.

Production Outlook

The positive biennial cycle is a key driver. Arabica trees naturally produce more in alternating years. This year is a high‑yield year.

Favorable weather conditions and rising global prices have also encouraged farmers to expand their coffee areas. Technology has enabled higher planting density per hectare.

As a result, total coffee production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags. This is a 14% increase from the 63 million bags estimated for 2025/26.

The National Supply Company (CONAB) projects a slightly lower figure of 66.7 million bags. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) projects 65.1 million bags.

Both official agencies use different methodologies. They have historically provided lower estimates than the USDA.

Arabica and Robusta Performance

Arabica production is forecast to reach 47.5 million bags. This is a 25% increase over the previous cycle. The growth is driven by the positive biennial cycle and expanded cultivated area.

Technological improvements in crop management also played a role. Milder temperatures before flowering supported good crop development.

In contrast, robusta (conilon) production is forecast at 24.4 million bags. This is a slight decline from the 25 million bags estimated for 2025/26.

Colder weather and periods of excessive rainfall reduced yields in some main producing regions. The strong growth of the 2025/26 harvest also made it difficult to sustain the same level of production.

Producers are increasingly worried about climate change. Many are adjusting their practices, seeking more shaded areas, and looking for resilient varieties.

Regional Performance

Minas Gerais remains Brazil’s largest coffee‑producing state. It is forecast to harvest 34.1 million bags in 2026/27, up from 26.7 million in 2025/26.

The increase is due to the positive biennial cycle and better rainfall distribution. Rainfall was especially good before flowering and through March.

Espírito Santo, the second‑largest producer, is forecast at 21.4 million bags. Arabica production there is expected at 4.4 million bags, while robusta accounts for 17 million bags.

São Paulo, which grows only arabica, saw growth of more than 15% over the previous cycle, despite varied weather conditions.

Bahia has now become the second‑largest robusta producer, surpassing Rondônia. Its growth comes from advanced technology and high‑performance irrigated areas.

Rondônia is expected to see a 19% increase in robusta production. Favorable weather and the renewal of crops with higher‑yielding clonal plants are the main reasons.

Table 1: Brazilian Coffee Production by State (million 60‑kg bags)

State 2025/26 2026/27 Change
Minas Gerais 26.7 34.1 +27.7%
Espírito Santo 20.9 21.4 +2.4%
São Paulo 4.8 5.5 +14.6%
Bahia 4.7 5.2 +10.6%
Rondônia 2.3 2.8 +21.7%

Prices and Production Costs

Arabica prices rose sharply at the end of 2025 due to limited supply. However, prices started to decrease with the forecast of a larger harvest.

In April 2026, arabica coffee averaged BRL 1,811.87 (USD 360.03) per 60‑kg bag. This was a 5% drop from March and a 28% drop from April 2024.

Robusta prices fell even more. In April 2026, robusta traded at BRL 917.05 (USD 182.26). That was a 10% monthly drop and a 46% drop from April 2025.

Fears of an El Niño event have dampened sales activity. Many producers who were liquidating their remaining stocks are now holding back.

Production costs remain high. Fertilizer prices have risen, and freight costs have increased due to higher diesel prices. Diesel climbed about 24% in March 2026.

To cope, many farmers are adopting the “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” technique. This method divides farms into two plots and alternates skeleton pruning.

As a result, farmers focus only on the plot in its high‑yield phase. The system also increases organic matter and reduces fertilizer needs.

Domestic Consumption and Exports

Brazil’s domestic coffee consumption is forecast at 22.39 million bags for 2026/27. This is a slight 0.5% increase over the previous year.

Consumption declined by more than 2% in 2025 due to high prices. However, it recovered in early 2026 as supermarket prices dropped.

In the first four months of 2026, consumption rose 2% compared to the same period in 2025. The average Brazilian drinks about 3.8 cups of coffee per day.

Exports for 2026/27 are forecast to jump 30% to 49 million bags. This is based on the record harvest. However, low stocks have prevented even higher volumes.

Between January and April 2026, Brazil exported 11.5 million bags, a 24% decrease from the same period in 2025. April exports increased 1.2%, signaling a gradual recovery.

Germany remains the top buyer of Brazilian coffee, followed by the United States, Italy, Japan, and Belgium. The United States holds over 30% of the market share for Brazilian coffee imports.

Specialty coffees accounted for almost 18% of total exports in early 2026, though that volume was 36% lower than the same period in 2025.

Policy and Minimum Prices

The government has allocated BRL 7.37 billion for the 2026/27 Coffee Economy Defense Fund (FUNCAFE). The fund supports crop management, marketing financing, and working capital.

Minimum guaranteed prices for the 2026/27 harvest have been increased. Arabica now has a minimum price of BRL 792.53 per 60‑kg bag, a 20% rise from the previous season.

Robusta’s minimum price was set at BRL 556.97 per bag, a 12% increase. These prices are valid from April 2026 through March 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will Brazil produce in 2026/27?

Production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags, a 14% increase over the previous season.

Why is arabica production expected to surge?

The positive biennial cycle, expanded planted area, technological advances, and favorable weather are the main drivers.

Which Brazilian state produces the most coffee?

Minas Gerais is the largest producer, forecast at 34.1 million bags in 2026/27.

How will El Niño affect Brazilian coffee?

There is a 60% chance of El Niño between May and July 2026. It could negatively impact the 2027/28 harvest through higher temperatures and altered rainfall.

What is the “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” technique?

It is a management method that divides a farm into two plots and alternates skeleton pruning, allowing farmers to focus on high‑yield areas and reduce costs.

What are the main export destinations for Brazilian coffee?

Germany, the United States, Italy, Japan, and Belgium are the top buyers.


Author: Qahwa World – Brasília | Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report BR2026-0025 | Date: June 1, 2026

Chinese Study: Sweetened Coffee Linked to Lower Risk of Early Death

Source: American College of Physicians / Annals of Internal Medicine |
Date: June 3, 2026

Chinese Study: Sweetened Coffee Linked to Lower Risk of Early Death

Key Findings:

  • Study from Southern Medical University in Guangzhou tracked over 171,000 people for 7 years.
  • Unsweetened coffee reduced death risk by 16 to 21 percent.
  • Coffee sweetened with one teaspoon of sugar per cup reduced risk by 29 to 31 percent.
  • Results for artificial sweeteners were inconclusive.
  • The study is observational, not experimental. It does not prove direct cause and effect.
  • Warning: Ready-made coffee drinks from chains contain much higher amounts of sugar.

Researchers from Southern Medical University in Guangzhou, China, published a new study in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine. The study examined the effect of sweetened coffee on the risk of early death. It included more than 171,000 participants from the UK Biobank project. The average follow-up period was about seven years.

As a result, the study found that drinking moderate amounts of coffee, whether sweetened or unsweetened, is associated with a lower risk of death. This research is one of the first large-scale studies to directly compare the effect of adding sugar to coffee on long-term health outcomes.

Key Results: Up to 31 Percent Lower Death Risk

The researchers divided participants into groups based on their coffee consumption. These groups included non-drinkers, unsweetened coffee drinkers, sugar-sweetened coffee drinkers, and artificially sweetened coffee drinkers. After seven years of follow-up, the results were clear.

First, people who drank any amount of unsweetened coffee were 16 to 21 percent less likely to die compared to non-drinkers. Second, those who drank 1.5 to 3.5 cups per day of sugar-sweetened coffee were 29 to 31 percent less likely to die. The researchers noted that these participants added only about one teaspoon of sugar (approximately 4 grams) per cup on average.

In contrast, the results for those who used artificial sweeteners were inconclusive. The reduced risk applied to deaths from cancer and cardiovascular disease as well.

Summary of Results

Coffee Type Daily Amount Reduction in Death Risk
Unsweetened coffee Any amount 16% to 21%
Sugar-sweetened coffee (1 tsp per cup) 1.5 to 3.5 cups 29% to 31%
Coffee with artificial sweeteners Varies Inconclusive

Why Is Coffee Beneficial? Possible Mechanisms

Coffee contains biologically active compounds that offer potential health benefits. The most important are antioxidants and polyphenols, especially chlorogenic acids. These compounds fight oxidative stress and inflammation. They also improve blood vessel function and glucose metabolism. In addition, caffeine enhances cognitive function and may reduce the risk of neurodegenerative diseases.

As a result, moderate coffee consumption has been linked to a lower risk of type 2 diabetes, stroke, heart disease, certain cancers, liver disease, and depression. However, the question remains: why did coffee with a small amount of sugar show even better results? Researchers believe that a small amount of sugar (one teaspoon) is not enough to cancel out the large benefits of coffee. But this needs further confirmation.

Important Caveats: Not a License to Add Excess Sugar

The researchers emphasize that these results do not mean adding sugar to coffee is beneficial in itself. The study observed an association, not a direct causal relationship. It is possible that people who regularly drink sweetened coffee also have a generally healthier lifestyle. Furthermore, the amount of sugar used in the study was very small (one teaspoon per cup).

In contrast, ready-made coffee drinks from major chains contain much larger amounts of sugar. A single drink can contain 20 to 50 grams of sugar. This far exceeds health recommendations. The World Health Organization recommends that free sugars should be less than 10 percent of daily calories. For an average adult, that is about 50 grams (12 teaspoons) per day. The ideal amount is less than 5 percent (25 grams or 6 teaspoons).

Therefore, researchers advise drinking coffee black or with a very small amount of sugar (no more than one teaspoon per cup). Avoid heavily sweetened drinks, heavy cream, and flavored syrups. Home brewing is preferable for better control of ingredients. Individuals with insomnia, anxiety, or stomach issues should consult their doctor.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Sweetened Coffee Study

Q: Does this study prove that adding sugar to coffee is healthy?

A: No. The study found a statistical association, not a causal relationship. The amount of sugar used was very small (one teaspoon per cup). A generally healthy lifestyle may also play a role.

Q: What is the optimal amount of coffee per day according to the study?

A: The optimal range is 1.5 to 3.5 cups per day. This amount was linked to the largest reduction in death risk.

Q: Do the results apply to instant coffee?

A: Yes, the study included various types of coffee. However, benefits are usually greater with filtered or freshly ground coffee.

Q: What is the daily sugar limit according to global guidelines?

A: The WHO recommends less than 10 percent of daily calories (about 50 grams or 12 teaspoons). The ideal is less than 5 percent (25 grams or 6 teaspoons).

Q: What about coffee with artificial sweeteners?

A: The results were inconclusive. There is not enough evidence of benefits or harms from this study.

Q: Can I drink sweetened coffee from commercial coffee shops?

A: Most coffee shop drinks contain very high amounts of sugar (20 to 50 grams). This may cancel out potential benefits and increase health risks. It is better to order black coffee or add a small amount of sugar yourself.

Prepared by: Scientific News Unit – Qahwa World – based on a study published in Annals of Internal Medicine on May 31, 2022, and the accompanying press release from the American College of Physicians.

Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes and does not replace medical advice.

Publication date: June 3, 2026

The Coffee That Brought Ronaldinho and Messi Together

Source: Spanish Press (HProject Podcast) |
Date: June 3, 2026

The Coffee That Brought Ronaldinho and Messi Together

Key Takeaways:

  • Former Barcelona player Andrea Orlandi reveals the unique relationship between Ronaldinho and a young Messi.
  • Ronaldinho would jokingly ask Messi to prepare coffee for him.
  • Messi obediently made the coffee, showing respect and affection.
  • The Brazilian star supported Messi, saying, “One day you will sit at my table.”
  • Ronaldinho assisted Messi’s first official goal for Barcelona with a brilliant pass.
  • Their bond went beyond teammates to a special connection between two geniuses.

Andrea Orlandi, a former Barcelona player, has revealed touching and amusing details about the relationship between two legends: Lionel Messi and Ronaldinho. These memories date back to the early days of the Argentine star at the Catalan club.

Orlandi played three seasons at Barcelona. Two of those seasons were with the reserve team, and one was with the first team. During this period, he witnessed Ronaldinho at his peak. He also saw the very beginnings of Messi at the club. Orlandi now works as a football agent. He recalled those days during an appearance on the “HProject” podcast. There, he spoke about the special bond between the Brazilian star and his young teammate.

The Coffee Request: Joke or Mentorship?

Orlandi said on the podcast: “Ronaldinho would ask Messi to make him coffee.” He added that the Brazilian would jokingly say: “How many World Cups have you played in, kid?” Orlandi then explained that Messi actually complied with Ronaldinho’s requests. He confirmed that it was all within the framework of joking and affection inside the team.

Orlandi continued: “Messi would indeed prepare the coffee for him. But it was a way to keep him close and surround him with care.” He pointed out that Ronaldinho was trying to support Messi and give him confidence. It was as if he was saying: “You are not Ronaldinho yet, but your future is huge.”

A Relationship Beyond the Locker Room

Orlandi explained that the relationship between the two stars went beyond ordinary teammaturity. A special bond grew between them, built on mutual respect and admiration. He added: “There was a special relationship between them. When two players understand each other and see things the same way, the more experienced player tries to guide the younger one. There was real affection between Ronaldinho and Messi.”

He continued: “Ronaldinho was loved by everyone. But he would tell Messi: ‘One day you will be able to sit at my table.’ He realized the enormous talent this kid had.” Orlandi noted that Ronaldinho was among the first to recognize Messi’s exceptional potential. He added: “These geniuses recognize each other in the end. It was not difficult to spot Messi’s talent, but Ronaldinho was keen to show it to everyone, as if saying: ‘This kid is extraordinary.'”

An Unforgettable Moment: Messi’s First Goal

Ronaldinho’s contribution to Messi’s first official goal for Barcelona is one of the most iconic moments reflecting their relationship. On May 1, 2005, during a La Liga match against Racing Santander, Ronaldinho played a brilliant pass to Messi through three defenders. Messi then delicately lifted the ball over the goalkeeper to score his first official goal for the first team.

Messi was only 17 years old at the time. That was the beginning of a historic journey. A journey that would later lead him to become one of the greatest footballers in the world. For many inside Barcelona, Ronaldinho was not just a huge star at that time. He was also the first mentor who helped Messi integrate and adapt inside the locker room. He then passed the torch to a new generation. That generation, led by Messi, went on to achieve an unprecedented era of success.

Frequently Asked Questions About Ronaldinho and Messi’s Relationship

Q: Who is Andrea Orlandi?

A: He is a former Italian footballer. He played three seasons at Barcelona (two with the reserves and one with the first team). He now works as a football agent.

Q: Was Ronaldinho serious when he asked Messi to make coffee?

A: No, it was done in a joking and affectionate manner. The goal was to keep Messi close and give him confidence and protection.

Q: How did Messi react to Ronaldinho’s requests?

A: Messi actually complied and made the coffee. He did so without complaint, showing respect for the older, more experienced player.

Q: When did Messi score his first official goal for Barcelona?

A: He scored his first goal on May 1, 2005, against Racing Santander. He was only 17 years old.

Q: Who assisted Messi’s first goal?

A: Ronaldinho provided the brilliant pass through three defenders. That assist became an iconic moment in the club’s history.

Q: Was the relationship between Ronaldinho and Messi truly special?

A: Yes, it went beyond normal teammaturity to a unique bond. Ronaldinho acted as a spiritual mentor and older brother to Messi in his early days.

Prepared by: Sports News Unit – Qahwa World – based on statements by Andrea Orlandi on the HProject Podcast (source: Spanish press).

Publication date: June 3, 2026

Russia Mandates Digital Labeling for Coffee and Chicory From June 2026

Source: TASS + Qahwa World |
Date: June 2, 2026

Russia Mandates Digital Labeling for Coffee and Chicory From June 2026

Key Takeaways:

  • Russia launches mandatory “Honest Sign” digital labeling for coffee and chicory from June 1, 2026.
  • Data Matrix codes on every package ensure full traceability from production to shelf.
  • Consumers can verify products instantly using the official mobile app.
  • Retail prices expected to rise 5 to 15 percent during the initial adaptation phase.
  • The Russian system surpasses European standards in consumer accessible real time data.
  • Labeling now covers more than 20 product categories as part of a national anti counterfeiting strategy.

Russia has officially launched mandatory digital labeling for coffee and chicory as of June 1, 2026. The measure is part of the national “Honest Sign” (Честный Знак) system. The initiative aims to enhance supply chain transparency and combat counterfeit products.

At the same time, Russia introduced piece by piece traceability for salmon and sturgeon caviar. This move is part of a broader government strategy that already covers more than 20 product categories. The coffee sector, especially instant coffee, is expected to see significant changes in prices and market structures in the coming period.

How It Works: 2D Codes and a Verification App

According to the government decree published on the official legal information portal, all producers and importers must now apply Data Matrix codes to coffee and chicory products. This applies when introducing products into commercial circulation. Goods manufactured before the deadline can be sold without codes until their expiration date.

The Center for the Development of Advanced Technologies (CRPT), operator of the “Honest Sign” system, stated that consumers can now verify product authenticity and safety with a single scan. This is done using the official mobile app. The app displays manufacturer or importer details, production date, shelf life, and official permits. If any issue is found, the app triggers immediate warnings to the buyer.

Expected Impact on Coffee Prices

Industry experts anticipate moderate price increases in the short term. The cost of applying each Data Matrix code, combined with expenses for labeling equipment, software integration, and staff training, will put pressure on producers. The instant coffee segment, which operates on low profit margins, will be particularly affected.

As a result, analysts estimate potential retail price rises of 5 to 15 percent for certain categories during the initial adaptation phase. However, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has downplayed concerns. It argues that reducing the gray market, estimated at up to 13 percent in the coffee sector, will eventually offset costs. Legitimate producers will then be able to gain market share.

In the medium to long term, greater market transparency could stabilize or even slightly lower prices. Squeezing out counterfeit and smuggled products will foster fairer competition.

Comparison: Russian System vs. European Standards

Criteria Russian “Honest Sign” System EU System (Regulation 178/2002)
Traceability level Centralized, unit by unit One step forward, one step back (direct suppliers and customers)
Consumer access to data Public via mobile app, instant scan of each package Not generally available to the public
Primary focus Anti counterfeiting, tax evasion reduction Food safety, health, environmental sustainability
National database Yes, unified and centralized No centralized public database
Additional initiatives Mandatory for over 20 product categories Digital Product Passport, EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)

Why This Matters

This development is part of a broader Russian strategy. Moscow has already applied mandatory labeling to more than 20 product categories, including pharmaceuticals, dairy, and bottled water. For consumers, this represents a significant empowerment. Instead of relying solely on brand reputation, they can now verify government backed information.

In addition, the reform is expected to reduce health risks from counterfeit products. It will also protect legitimate businesses, cut tax evasion, and support environmental goals. This is especially important for high value items like caviar, where illegal fishing has long been a concern.

The CRPT noted that a successful voluntary pilot phase allowed businesses to test and optimize the system beforehand. This minimized operational disruption.

As Russia strengthens its digital traceability infrastructure, its standards move closer to, and in some aspects ahead of, evolving international best practices. Consumers in Russia are advised to download the “Honest Sign” app and make scanning a regular habit when purchasing coffee, chicory, or premium caviar.

Frequently Asked Questions About Russia’s Digital Labeling System

Q: When did mandatory coffee labeling take effect in Russia?

A: The system came into force on June 1, 2026. It covers coffee and chicory.

Q: How can consumers verify product authenticity?

A: By downloading the official “Honest Sign” (Честный Знак) mobile app and scanning the Data Matrix code on the package.

Q: Will coffee prices increase because of this system?

A: A temporary increase of 5 to 15 percent is expected during the initial adaptation phase. In the long term, eliminating the gray market could stabilize or lower prices.

Q: What is the difference between the Russian and European traceability systems?

A: The Russian system is centralized and allows consumers to scan each product instantly. The EU system relies on one step forward, one step back traceability between businesses without a public consumer database.

Q: Does the system apply to imported products?

A: Yes, importers must also apply Data Matrix codes to imported products when they enter the Russian market.

Q: What other product categories already have mandatory labeling?

A: The system covers more than 20 categories, including pharmaceuticals, dairy, bottled water, fur, perfumes, tires, cameras, and others.

Prepared by: Qahwa World Specialized News Unit – based on statements from TASS and the Center for the Development of Advanced Technologies (CRPT).

Publication date: June 2, 2026

Specialty Coffee in America Hits Record High in 2026

Source: National Coffee Association (NCA) |
Author: Specialty Reports Unit |
Date: June 2, 2026

Specialty Coffee in America Hits Record High in 2026

Key Takeaways:

  • 47% of American adults drank specialty coffee yesterday. This equals the highest level ever recorded.
  • Specialty coffee surpasses traditional coffee daily (47% vs. 42%).
  • 58% of Americans had specialty coffee in the past week. That is a 10 point increase since 2021.
  • The 25 to 39 age group leads consumption. 69% of them drank specialty coffee in the past week.
  • Espresso based beverages (lattes, cappuccinos) reached 45% weekly penetration.
  • Sweet flavors like chocolate and caramel top the preference list for specialty drinkers.
  • 36% of specialty coffee drinkers had their coffee prepared out of home. Only 23% of traditional drinkers did the same.

The National Coffee Association (NCA) released its 2026 National Coffee Data Trends Specialty Coffee Report today. The report shows that specialty coffee continues to achieve record numbers. Specifically, 47% of American adults drank specialty coffee on the day before the survey. This matches the record high set in 2025.

In addition, specialty coffee outperforms traditional coffee, which stood at 42% daily. The data points to a clear shift in consumer behavior toward quality and diverse flavors. Specialty coffee confirms its position as a favorite drink among new age groups.

Record High Consumption for Specialty Coffee

The Spring 2026 NCDT report found that 66% of American adults drank coffee of any type yesterday. This makes coffee the number one beverage in America, ahead of tap or bottled water. However, the real growth happens in the specialty coffee segment. Daily specialty consumption reached 47%, while traditional coffee remained stable at 42%.

Furthermore, weekly specialty coffee consumption has grown steadily. It increased from 48% in 2021 to 58% in January 2026. This represents a 10 percentage point increase over five years. Espresso based beverages (EBBs) are the main driver of this growth.

Coffee Type Daily Penetration (Jan 2026) Weekly Penetration (Jan 2026)
Specialty Coffee 47% 58%
Traditional Coffee 42% 62%
Espresso Based Beverages (EBBs) 29% 45%
Cold Specialty Beverages (N EBBs)* 17% 27%

* Includes cold brew, frozen blended coffee, and nitro coffee.

Age Group 25 39 Drives Growth and Demand for Innovation

The data shows that adults aged 25 to 39 are the main engine of the specialty coffee market. Specifically, 69% of this group drank specialty coffee in the past week. This is the highest percentage among all age groups. In contrast, only 46% of those aged 60 and above did the same.

As a result, younger consumers prefer espresso based drinks and cold beverages. For example, 60% of the 25 39 group had an espresso beverage in the past week. Cold brew consumption among them reached 28%. Among seniors, that number was only 6%.

Moreover, younger adults (18 to 24) showed a stronger preference for specialty coffee over traditional coffee. Their weekly specialty penetration was 50% compared to 40% for traditional. This suggests a lasting shift in consumption habits for future generations.

Age Group Specialty Coffee (Weekly) Espresso Beverages Cold Specialty Drinks
18 24 50% 38% 33%
25 39 69% 60% 40%
40 59 60% 47% 27%
60+ 46% 30% 13%

Flavor Preferences: Sweet Dominates, Specialty Drinkers Seek More

The report revealed that 35% of specialty coffee drinkers consider flavor as part of what makes a coffee “specialty.” Therefore, the study tested 22 flavor descriptions to identify the most preferred ones. Sweet flavors topped the list broadly. Chocolate (cocoa, milk chocolate, malt) scored 85% appeal among specialty drinkers. Caramel and brown sugar came second with 78%, followed by vanilla at 79%.

In contrast, specialty coffee drinkers showed greater openness to less common flavors compared to traditional drinkers. For example, the appeal for citrus notes (orange, lemon) rose to 64% among specialty drinkers versus 52% for traditional drinkers. Likewise, liking for rose and spice notes like cinnamon and cardamom increased significantly.

As a result, the study recommends that coffee shops and brands offer a mix of 4 to 5 core flavors. According to a TUR (Total Unduplicated Reach) analysis, offering chocolate, vanilla, and a tropical fruit can reach more than 70% of specialty coffee drinkers. Adding more flavors does not deliver significant additional reach.

Buying Behavior: Out of Home, Cold Drinks, and Sweeteners

The report noted clear behavioral differences between specialty and traditional coffee drinkers. First, 36% of specialty drinkers bought their coffee ready made from outside the home (cafes, restaurants, gas stations). This compares to only 23% for traditional coffee drinkers. This reflects the importance of out of home channels for the specialty segment.

Second, 32% of Americans consumed cold specialty coffee during the past week. This is a large number compared to traditional coffee, where only 13% was consumed cold. Cold brew and frozen blended drinks are key drivers of this trend, even during winter months.

Third, sweetener use increased among specialty coffee drinkers. Specifically, 59% of them added sweeteners or flavored syrup to their daily coffee. This percentage rises to 70% among the 25 to 39 age group. Hispanic Americans are more likely to add white sugar and honey. Meanwhile, 58% of specialty drinkers used whiteners (milk, cream, or milk alternatives).

Frequently Asked Questions About the 2026 Specialty Coffee Report

Q: What percentage of Americans drink coffee daily overall?

A: According to the Spring 2026 report, 66% of American adults drink coffee daily. This makes coffee the most consumed beverage, ahead of tap or bottled water.

Q: How does the NCA define “specialty coffee”?

A: Specialty coffee includes any espresso based beverage (lattes, cappuccinos), non espresso beverages like cold brew and nitro, plus traditional coffee that consumers believe is made from premium beans.

Q: Which age group consumes the most specialty coffee?

A: The 25 to 39 age group is the highest consumer. 69% of them drank specialty coffee in the past week, the highest among all age groups.

Q: What are the most preferred flavors for specialty coffee drinkers?

A: Sweet flavors lead the list. Chocolate has 85% appeal, followed by caramel and brown sugar at 78%, and vanilla at 79%.

Q: Do Americans prefer hot or cold specialty coffee?

A: 43% of specialty coffee drinkers prefer it hot, while 32% consume it cold. Cold beverages show steady growth even during winter months.

Q: Where do specialty coffee drinkers usually get their coffee?

A: 36% buy their coffee ready made away from home (cafes, restaurants, workplaces). The rest prepare it at home using drip makers or espresso machines.

Author: Specialty Reports Unit – Based on the National Coffee Association (NCA) press release issued June 2, 2026, and the 2026 NCDT Specialty Coffee Report.

All rights reserved. This report may be republished with attribution.

Publication date: June 2, 2026