Category: Studies

Coffee Linked to Lower Risk of Cirrhosis and Liver Cancer in Large Study

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: July 2, 2026

Coffee Linked to Lower Risk of Cirrhosis and Liver Cancer in Large Study

Key Findings:

  • Study of over 354,000 UK Biobank participants followed for a median of 13 years.
  • Five or more cups of coffee daily linked to 32% lower risk of cirrhosis, 47% lower risk of liver cancer, and 42% lower risk of liver-related death.
  • The association followed a dose-response pattern: more coffee, lower risk.
  • Similar results for caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee, suggesting non-caffeine compounds play a protective role.
  • Adding sugar or sweeteners did not eliminate benefits but was linked to markers of liver inflammation and fibrosis.
  • Proteomic analysis identified 74 proteins associated with coffee intake and reduced fibrosis risk.

A large-scale study of over 354,000 participants from the UK Biobank has found that higher coffee consumption is associated with significantly lower risks of cirrhosis, liver cancer, and liver-related death. The findings, published in Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology, also identified MRI and blood protein changes that may help explain the biological mechanisms behind the association.

The study followed participants for a median of 13 years. Researchers assessed self-reported coffee consumption, including coffee type and whether participants added sugar or artificial sweeteners. They then examined how these habits were associated with new cases of liver disease, MRI measures of liver health in a subgroup of 28,961 patients, and blood protein profiles in 44,633 patients.

The Numbers: Striking Reductions in Risk

Compared with non-coffee drinkers, those who consumed five or more cups daily were:

  • 32% less likely to develop cirrhosis.
  • 47% less likely to develop hepatocellular carcinoma.
  • 42% less likely to die from liver disease.

The association followed a dose-response pattern, with lower risks observed starting at one to two cups per day. Similar findings were observed for both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee, suggesting that compounds other than caffeine may play a protective role.

Condition Risk Reduction (5+ cups/day)
Cirrhosis 32%
Hepatocellular Carcinoma 47%
Liver-Related Death 42%

Sugar and Sweeteners: Mixed Effects

Researchers also examined whether adding sugar or artificial sweeteners changed the association between coffee and liver health. Overall, patients who added sweeteners had similar reductions in the risk of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related death compared to those who drank unsweetened coffee. However, they had 1.36 times the odds of elevated iron-corrected T1, an MRI marker of liver inflammation and fibrosis, compared with patients who did not add sweeteners.

MRI Findings: Benefits Visible Before Symptoms Appear

MRI results suggested that higher coffee intake was associated with better liver health before liver disease became clinically apparent. Patients who drank at least five cups daily had less liver fat, lower liver iron levels, and lower odds of liver fibroinflammation than non-coffee drinkers. The findings were similar for caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee, further supporting the role of non-caffeine compounds in liver protection.

Proteomic Analysis: 74 Proteins Point to Potential Mechanisms

Proteomic analyses identified 74 proteins associated with both coffee intake and cirrhosis risk, suggesting biological pathways related to liver function, inflammation, fibrosis, and immune regulation. These findings may help explain coffee’s observed associations with better liver health and provide new mechanistic clues.

Expert Insight: Interview with Lead Researcher Dr. Hyunseok Kim

Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology invited study author Dr. Hyunseok Kim of the Karsh Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center to comment on the implications of this work.

Q: Why does this study matter?
Dr. Kim: Coffee has long been associated with better liver health, but most previous studies focused only on clinical outcomes such as cirrhosis or liver cancer. Our study is unique because it integrates clinical outcomes with advanced MRI biomarkers and large-scale plasma proteomics in more than 350,000 UK Biobank participants. By combining these complementary approaches, we were able to show not only that coffee consumption is associated with lower risks of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related mortality, but also that it is linked to less liver fat, less fibroinflammation on MRI, and favorable biological pathways involved in fibrosis and inflammation. This provides stronger biological evidence supporting coffee as a simple lifestyle factor that may promote liver health.

Q: Was there a finding that surprised you?
Dr. Kim: Several findings stood out. First, we observed remarkably consistent associations across clinical outcomes, imaging biomarkers, and proteomic signatures, all pointing in the same direction. Second, both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee showed similar associations, suggesting that compounds other than caffeine likely contribute to the liver benefits. Finally, we were intrigued that coffee drinkers had lower levels of proteins involved in fibrosis, macrophage activation, and extracellular matrix remodeling, while proteins reflecting healthier liver synthetic function were higher. These findings offer new mechanistic clues that go beyond the epidemiologic associations reported previously.

Q: How might the findings influence clinical practice?
Dr. Kim: This study should not be interpreted as evidence that coffee is a treatment for chronic liver disease. However, for most patients without contraindications, moderate coffee consumption appears to be a safe, inexpensive, and potentially beneficial lifestyle habit that can complement other evidence-based interventions such as weight loss, alcohol abstinence, and management of metabolic risk factors. I hope these findings will give clinicians greater confidence when discussing dietary habits with patients and encourage further research into the biological mechanisms underlying coffee’s protective effects.

Limitations and Recommendations: A Simple Prevention Strategy

The authors noted several limitations, including self-reported coffee intake, the possibility of unmeasured confounding and reverse causation, a healthier MRI subgroup, and the predominantly European ancestry of the study population, which may limit the generalizability of the findings. They also noted that the blood protein findings require experimental studies to confirm the underlying biological mechanisms.

Nevertheless, the authors concluded that “higher coffee intake was associated with lower risks of cirrhosis, HCC, and liver-related mortality, as well as favorable MRI-based and proteomic profiles.” They added that the combined clinical, imaging, and molecular findings support coffee as “a simple, scalable strategy for liver disease prevention.”

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee and Liver Health

Q: How many cups of coffee are needed to reduce liver disease risk?

A: The study showed benefits starting at one to two cups daily, with more pronounced effects at five or more cups per day.

Q: Does decaffeinated coffee offer the same benefits?

A: Yes. Similar associations were observed for both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee, suggesting non-caffeine compounds play a protective role.

Q: Does adding sugar negate coffee’s benefits?

A: Adding sugar or sweeteners did not eliminate the main benefits but was linked to markers of liver inflammation and fibrosis, so excessive additions should be avoided.

Q: Can coffee be considered a treatment for liver disease?

A: No. The study does not prove that coffee is a treatment. However, moderate consumption may be a beneficial complement to standard interventions.

Q: What biological mechanisms might explain coffee’s protective effects?

A: The study identified 74 proteins linked to reduced inflammation and fibrosis, suggesting multiple biological pathways may explain the benefits.

This study adds to the growing evidence on coffee’s potential health benefits, particularly for liver health. With risk reductions of up to 47%, coffee emerges as a simple, accessible tool for preventing chronic liver disease. However, further experimental studies are needed to confirm the biological mechanisms and determine optimal intake. In the meantime, coffee lovers can continue to enjoy their favorite beverage with greater awareness of its potential benefits.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on the study published in Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology on July 1, 2026.

Original source: Doug Brunk – Medical Report.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: July 2, 2026

Just 90 Seconds Turns Wet Coffee Grounds into High-Grade Solid Fuel

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: National Research Council of Science & Technology – Chemical Engineering Journal |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 21, 2026

Just 90 Seconds Turns Wet Coffee Grounds into High-Grade Solid Fuel

Key Takeaways:

  • Korean researchers develop Flame Plasma Pyrolysis (FPP) technology to convert wet coffee grounds into biochar in just 90 seconds.
  • The technology eliminates the need for pre-drying, the biggest barrier to coffee waste recycling.
  • The resulting biochar achieves a heating value of 29.0 MJ/kg, comparable to high-grade anthracite coal.
  • The process achieves 83.3% mass reduction and triples fixed carbon content (from 15.6% to 46.2%).
  • The technology is 40 to 240 times faster than conventional hydrothermal carbonization.
  • Potential applications include food waste, sewage sludge, and agricultural residues with high moisture content.

Every year, global coffee consumption generates more than 10 million tons of spent coffee grounds, most of which end up landfilled or incinerated, releasing greenhouse gases and polluting the environment. While these grounds hold real energy potential, their high moisture content has long been a barrier to converting them into fuel or carbon products.

Now, a research team from the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) has developed a revolutionary technology called Flame Plasma Pyrolysis (FPP), which directly treats biomass containing approximately 55% moisture without any pre-drying, converting it into high-quality biochar in just 90 seconds.

A Solution to the Growing Waste Challenge: From Waste to Energy

The global coffee industry faces a growing environmental challenge: more than 10 million tons of spent coffee grounds are produced annually, with most ending up in landfills or incinerators. These grounds are not just waste – they are wasted energy. Coffee grounds contain a heating value of up to 21.8 MJ/kg, but their high moisture content (approximately 55%) has been the biggest obstacle to economic utilization.

Flame Plasma Pyrolysis: A Revolution in Wet Waste Processing

The flame plasma system generates plasma flames at temperatures of approximately 800–900°C through the combustion of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and compressed air. Unlike conventional pyrolysis technologies, the process eliminates the need for any pre-drying treatment. During processing, the intense thermal energy rapidly vaporizes moisture trapped inside the biomass particles. The resulting pressure buildup triggers microscopic explosions known as the “popcorn effect,” which simultaneously enhance carbonization and create highly porous structures. Rather than acting as a barrier, moisture itself becomes a steam-activation agent that accelerates reactions and improves product quality.

Anthracite-Level Fuel Performance and Significant Quality Improvements

Under optimized conditions, the researchers achieved complete conversion within 90 seconds, with a mass reduction of 83.3%. The resulting biochar exhibited a heating value of 29.0 MJ/kg, approximately 33% higher than the original coffee grounds (21.8 MJ/kg) and comparable to that of anthracite coal.

Indicator Before Treatment After Treatment Improvement
Heating Value (MJ/kg) 21.8 29.0 +33%
Fixed Carbon Content (%) 15.6 46.2 ≈3×
Specific Surface Area (m²/g) 1.5 115.4 ×77
Sulfur Compounds Present Fully Removed No SOx Emissions

Dramatically Faster Than Existing Technologies

The new process offers substantial advantages in both processing speed and energy efficiency. Compared with hydrothermal carbonization (HTC), which typically requires one to six hours, the FPP process is 40 to 240 times faster. It also reduces treatment time by more than 20-fold compared with torrefaction, which generally requires at least 30 minutes. Because the system relies on combustion-generated plasma rather than electricity-intensive plasma devices, it lowers overall energy consumption while maintaining high processing performance.

Future Applications: From Coffee Waste to Decentralized Energy Systems

Beyond coffee waste, the technology is potentially applicable to a wide range of high-moisture organic wastes, including food waste, sewage sludge, and agricultural residues. Its compact process design and ultra-fast treatment capability make it particularly attractive for decentralized on-site waste-to-energy facilities, where transportation and drying costs often limit resource recovery efforts.

Researchers: “We Are Changing the Paradigm from Waste as a Problem to Waste as an Energy Resource”

Dr. Taejun Park, lead author of the study, said: “This technology presents a new paradigm in which waste is no longer viewed as a disposal problem but as a valuable energy resource.” He added: “We plan to expand the technology to various types of high-moisture organic waste and further optimize the process for industrial-scale commercialization.”

Research Context: Published in the Leading Chemical Engineering Journal

The research was published in the Chemical Engineering Journal (Elsevier, Impact Factor 13.2), a leading international journal in chemical engineering. The study demonstrates a new approach for transforming wet organic waste into valuable energy resources while advancing carbon-neutral waste management strategies. The Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) is a government-funded research institute specializing in geoscience, mineral resources, energy technologies, and Earth system science.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Waste-to-Fuel Technology

Q: What is Flame Plasma Pyrolysis technology?

A: A revolutionary technology developed by Korean researchers that converts wet biomass (such as coffee grounds) into high-quality biochar in just 90 seconds, without any pre-drying.

Q: What is the heating value of the resulting biochar?

A: 29.0 MJ/kg, which is 33% higher than the original coffee grounds and comparable to high-grade anthracite coal.

Q: How long does the conversion process take?

A: Just 90 seconds – 40 to 240 times faster than conventional hydrothermal carbonization techniques.

Q: Can this technology be applied to other types of waste?

A: Yes, it can be applied to food waste, sewage sludge, and agricultural residues with high moisture content.

Q: What are the environmental benefits of this technology?

A: It reduces waste sent to landfills, lowers greenhouse gas emissions, and produces clean sulfur-free fuel, preventing SOx emissions.

Flame Plasma Pyrolysis technology represents a paradigm shift in converting wet organic waste into valuable energy resources. With rapid, cost-effective processing, this technology opens new horizons for sustainable waste management and renewable energy production. As global coffee consumption continues to grow, this technology may be the key to turning one of the biggest waste challenges into an energy and environmental opportunity.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a study published in the Chemical Engineering Journal (Elsevier) by the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 21, 2026

International Coffee Partners Support Integrated Livelihoods and Strengthen Women in the Coffee Sector in 2025

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: International Coffee Partners – 2025 Annual Report |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 19, 2026

International Coffee Partners Support Integrated Livelihoods and Strengthen Women in the Coffee Sector in 2025

Key Takeaways:

  • International Coffee Partners (ICP) reached 12,819 smallholder coffee farming households across 5 countries in 2025, with a new project launched in Ethiopia.
  • Household income increased in Brazil from USD 16,033 to USD 18,170, and in Honduras from USD 7,938 to USD 10,372.
  • Indonesia saw income jump from USD 2,925 to USD 4,781, while Tanzania increased from USD 1,227 to USD 1,441 and Uganda from USD 1,793 to USD 1,949.
  • The Women’s Empowerment Index improved significantly: from 52% to 63% in Brazil, 61% to 68% in Honduras, and 65% to 84% in Tanzania.
  • 45% of women and 21% of youth participated in project activities and trainings in 2025, with 487 farmer organizations engaged.
  • Since its founding in 2001, ICP has implemented 28 projects in 13 countries, reaching 125,700 households with investments of EUR 25 million.

International Coffee Partners (ICP) released its 2025 Annual Report, revealing continued efforts to support smallholder coffee farmers across five countries: Brazil, Honduras, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Uganda, with a new project launched in Ethiopia. Despite rising global coffee prices delivering short-term income gains, climate variability and continued dependence on favorable market conditions highlighted the sector’s cyclical nature and farmers’ exposure to global market fluctuations.

Smallholder coffee farmers continue to face significant challenges related to volatile markets, climate variability, and limited access to services and finance. These challenges are most pronounced in rural areas where livelihoods depend on climate-sensitive agricultural systems and often lack sufficient diversification, making households vulnerable to both climate and market-related shocks.

2025 Figures and Achievements: 12,819 Households Reached and New Project in Ethiopia

In 2025, ICP projects supported 12,819 smallholder coffee farming households across the five countries, with core activities including capacity building, climate-smart agriculture, livelihood diversification, strengthening farmer organizations, and inclusion of women and youth. The “CAFE Legacy” project was launched in Ethiopia, working with 10 cooperatives and one cooperative union, reaching over 2,000 members and indirectly benefiting approximately 12,000 coffee farming households.

Country Households Income 2024 (USD) Income 2025 (USD) WEI 2024 WEI 2025
Brazil 1,157 16,033 18,170 52% 63%
Honduras 2,303 7,938 10,372 61% 68%
Indonesia 3,607 2,925 4,781 70% 72%
Tanzania 3,620 1,227 1,441 65% 84%
Uganda 2,132 1,793 1,949 64% 66%

Source: ICP 2025 Annual Report. WEI = Women’s Empowerment Index.

Key Results by Country: Income Growth and Women’s Empowerment at the Forefront

Brazil: Average annual household income rose from USD 16,033 to USD 18,170, with the share of farmers practicing record keeping increasing from 54% to 72%. The Women’s Empowerment Index increased from 52% to 63%, reflecting stronger joint decision-making and agency at household level.

Honduras: Average annual household income increased from USD 7,938 to USD 10,372, with the Women’s Empowerment Index rising from 61% to 68%, alongside improved adoption of Good Agricultural Practices and Climate-Smart Agriculture.

Indonesia: The highest relative income increase was recorded, from USD 2,925 to USD 4,781, with a focus on women’s economic empowerment through women’s groups and improved farming practices.

Tanzania: Average annual household income increased from USD 1,227 to USD 1,441, with a notable increase in the Women’s Empowerment Index from 65% to 84%, reflecting significant progress in women’s participation in decision-making and cooperative leadership.

Uganda: Average annual household income increased from USD 1,793 to USD 1,949, with an integrated approach combining participatory climate planning, Farmer Field School training, and cooperative strengthening.

Ethiopia: In 2025, the “CAFE Legacy” (Coffee Alliances for Ethiopia) project was launched, building on the achievements of previous CAFE projects in which ICP worked closely with smallholder farmers and farmer organizations to enhance skills, productivity, and climate resilience. The project will collaborate with 10 coffee cooperatives and one cooperative union, reaching more than 2,000 cooperative members, including women and youth, and will indirectly benefit approximately 12,000 coffee farming households. Key focus areas include: strengthening cooperative governance and management capacity, improving business performance and market competitiveness, enhancing coffee quality through improved post-harvest handling and standards, promoting youth and women’s participation and leadership, and supporting infrastructure such as drying beds and storage facilities.

Women as Drivers of Transformation – Empowerment Index Shows Notable Improvement

ICP emphasizes that women’s empowerment strengthens the economic resilience and productivity of coffee-farming households and communities. The Women’s Empowerment Index saw notable improvements across all countries, particularly in Tanzania from 65% to 84%, Honduras from 61% to 68%, and Brazil from 52% to 63%. Activities included gender and youth-focused approaches to enhance participation and economic opportunities.

Global Presence: 28 Projects in 13 Countries, Reaching 125,700 Households

Since its founding in 2001, ICP has implemented 28 projects in 13 countries, reaching 125,700 households with total investments of EUR 25 million from ICP shareholders. ICP worked with 487 farmer organizations, and 45% of women and 21% of youth participated in project activities and trainings in 2025.

Institutional Partners and Estimated Returns

ICP’s institutional partners include Neumann Gruppe, EMS, EST, Café Gold, Kabi, and Nestlé. ICP estimates that every euro invested by its shareholders generates approximately 7 euros in social, environmental, and economic returns, reflecting the effectiveness of its integrated development model.

What Matters: Integrated Livelihood Support and Women’s Empowerment

ICP emphasizes that integrated livelihood support requires empowering smallholder farmers to assess risks, opportunities, and trade-offs in increasingly complex environments. Through a participatory and inclusive approach, content is tailored to local needs with continuous community feedback. Training and technical support are linked to institutional strengthening and inclusive economic development, enabling farmers to manage climate risks and access market opportunities. ICP believes that women can be key drivers of transformation and that empowering them strengthens the economic resilience and productivity of coffee-farming households and communities.

Frequently Asked Questions About the ICP 2025 Annual Report

Q: Which countries did ICP work in during 2025?

A: Brazil, Honduras, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Uganda, with a new project launched in Ethiopia.

Q: How many households benefited from ICP projects in 2025?

A: 12,819 smallholder coffee farming households.

Q: Which countries saw the highest income increases?

A: Indonesia saw the highest relative increase from USD 2,925 to USD 4,781, followed by Honduras from USD 7,938 to USD 10,372.

Q: How did the Women’s Empowerment Index improve?

A: It improved across all countries, with significant increases in Tanzania from 65% to 84%, Honduras from 61% to 68%, and Brazil from 52% to 63%.

Q: What are ICP’s cumulative investments and reach since its founding?

A: EUR 25 million invested, reaching 125,700 households across 13 countries.

The ICP 2025 Annual Report confirms that investing in smallholder coffee farmers, empowering women, and strengthening local institutions are essential pillars for building a more resilient and sustainable coffee sector. As climate and market challenges persist, integrated development models that place farmers at the heart of solutions are increasingly vital.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on the 2025 Annual Report of International Coffee Partners (ICP).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 19, 2026

Climate Pressures Affect All Coffee Producers, But Their Adaptation Capacities Vary Shockingly

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: TechnoServe and ACT Coffee Programme (UNIDO) – June 2026 |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 18, 2026

Climate Pressures Affect All Coffee Producers, But Their Adaptation Capacities Vary Shockingly

Key Takeaways:

  • A new report from TechnoServe and the ACT Coffee Programme reveals that all ten leading coffee-producing countries face increasing climate stress, but their ability to adapt varies significantly.
  • Latin American countries and Indonesia are the most vulnerable to climate risks, while East African countries are less exposed but suffer from greater economic fragility.
  • The income gap is striking: Ugandan coffee farmers earn $610 per hectare, while their counterparts in Vietnam earn $4,885.
  • The report calls for strategic investments of $560 million annually over seven years, which could generate $2.1 billion in additional farm income and $2.6 billion in exports per year.
  • Thirteen global coffee companies have endorsed the report’s findings, signaling growing industry awareness of the need for climate action.

A new report from TechnoServe, in partnership with the ACT Coffee Programme of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), reveals that ten of the world’s leading coffee-producing countries face escalating climate pressures. However, the most striking finding is that these countries’ capacities to adapt to these pressures vary dramatically, creating deep economic gaps between coffee farmers around the world.

The report, titled “Benchmarking Coffee Production and Climate Risk,” builds on TechnoServe’s 2025 Regenerative Coffee Investment Case and provides a comprehensive view of how climate change is affecting the sector and what can be done to strengthen its resilience.

Methodology: Three Dimensions of Risk and Two Time Horizons

The report draws on global climate data, international risk indexes, and field data from TechnoServe programs. It evaluates the ten countries across three key dimensions: climate risk exposure (the intensity of changes in temperature and rainfall), climate sensitivity (the degree to which the production system is affected by these changes), and adaptive capacity (the readiness of farmers, governments, and the private sector to invest in adaptation solutions). The analysis was conducted under a moderate climate scenario (SSP2-4.5) and examined two time horizons: the near term (2020–2040) and the long term (2040–2060).

Country Differences: Latin America and Indonesia Most Vulnerable, East Africa Most Fragile

The results reveal significant variation in farmers’ ability to face climate challenges and the level of support available to them. Brazil, Peru, and Indonesia showed a high degree of risk exposure with relatively stronger adaptive capacity. Vietnam also scored high on adaptive capacity but was classified in the intermediate vulnerability category.

East African countries such as Ethiopia and Uganda showed lower overall risk exposure but weaker adaptive capacity, with smaller farms, lower yields, and limited support systems. The report noted that smallholder coffee revenue in Uganda is estimated at about $610 per hectare, compared to $4,885 in Vietnam and $4,731 in Brazil. This disparity reflects deep economic fragility in East Africa, despite relatively lower climate exposure.

Country Risk Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Farm Income ($/ha)
Brazil 1.52 3.1 2.6 4,731
Indonesia 2.00 2.4 2.6 –
Peru 1.90 2.8 2.7 –
Vietnam 1.69 2.6 2.7 4,885
Ethiopia 1.28 2.1 2.1 –
Uganda 1.07 2.1 2.1 610

Source: TechnoServe report – Benchmarking Coffee Production and Climate Risk (2026). Scores range from 1 to 4 (1=Low, 4=High).

Types of Risks: Heat Stress, Heavy Rainfall, and Drought

The report identified Indonesia, Peru, Vietnam, and Brazil as facing the most acute challenges from rising temperatures exceeding suitable ranges for coffee cultivation. In these countries, lower elevation further amplifies the impact of heat stress and temperature variability. Indonesia, Peru, and Colombia face the highest risk of damage from excessive rainfall, which can lead to soil erosion, waterlogging, and the spread of pests and diseases.

In contrast, Brazil faces the greatest risk of thermal-water stress, where the combined effect of high temperatures and low rainfall increases drought risk. Specific regions in Kenya and Uganda are also expected to experience rainfall deficits.

Recommendations: Investing in Farms and Infrastructure Is the Solution

One of the report’s central conclusions is that improving farm profitability is among the most effective ways to strengthen resilience against climate risks. The report calls for directing capital across three interconnected categories:

  • Farmer training and technical assistance: To disseminate regenerative agriculture practices that address local thermal and water risks.
  • Farmer capital and financial products: To provide affordable financing for farmers to cover transition costs and bridge income gaps during renovation years.
  • Systemic and infrastructure gaps: Including disaster preparedness, research and development, market systems, and policy reforms.

The report estimates that an annual investment of approximately $560 million over seven years in regenerative agriculture could generate $2.1 billion in additional farm income and $2.6 billion in exports per year across several key coffee-producing countries.

Thirteen Coffee Companies Endorse Findings, But Funding Challenges Loom

According to TechnoServe, 13 coffee companies have endorsed the report’s findings, reflecting what the organization described as growing industry-wide recognition of the need for action. However, the report does not specify whether these companies provided financial support for the study, nor does it detail any climate-adaptation investments they may have made on behalf of coffee farmers.

The call for coordinated investment comes at a challenging time for agricultural development globally. Recent reductions in foreign-aid funding, including cuts affecting international development programs, have contributed to a widening funding gap across the coffee sector.

Experts: The Report Reflects a Daily Reality for Coffee Farmers

Paul Stewart, TechnoServe’s Global Coffee Director and one of the report’s lead authors, said: “The report reflects what TechnoServe teams around the world see every day. Climate change is already affecting the productivity and livelihoods of smallholder coffee farmers, yet many lack the tools they need to respond.”

Frequently Asked Questions About the Climate Risk Report

Q: Which ten countries are covered in the report?

A: Brazil, Indonesia, Peru, Vietnam, Kenya, Honduras, Colombia, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

Q: What are the three dimensions of risk assessment?

A: Climate risk exposure, climate sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

Q: Why are East African countries more fragile despite lower risk exposure?

A: Due to smaller farm sizes, lower yields, weaker support systems, and lower income per hectare, limiting farmers’ ability to invest in adaptation.

Q: What is the estimated investment needed according to the report?

A: Approximately $560 million annually over seven years.

The TechnoServe report confirms that climate challenges facing the coffee sector are not uniform, and that smart, data-driven investments can make a significant difference in the lives of millions of farmers and the sustainability of the global sector.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on the TechnoServe report “Benchmarking Coffee Production and Climate Risk” (June 2026), and the UNIDO ACT Coffee Programme.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 18, 2026

International Coffee Organization Releases Coffee Market Report for May 2026

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – May 2026 Report |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 13, 2026

International Coffee Organization Releases Coffee Market Report for May 2026

Key Takeaways:

  • The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I‑CIP) averaged 256.05 US cents/lb in May 2026, down 3.8% from April.
  • Brazilian Naturals fell 6.4% to 293.73 US cents/lb, while Robustas rose 1.1% to 166.51 US cents/lb.
  • ICE‑certified Arabica stocks fell 13.5% to 0.48 million bags – a multi‑month low.
  • CONAB raised its Brazil 2026/27 production forecast to a record 66.7 million bags, with Arabica up 28% y/y.
  • Global green bean exports declined 1.9% in April 2026 to 10.51 million bags, while Robusta exports rose 11.2%.
  • Vietnam’s April 2026 exports jumped 12.1% to 3.41 million bags – the country’s largest April volume on record.
  • The New York–London futures arbitrage narrowed 13.1% to 116.39 US cents/lb, reflecting improved Brazil arabica prospects.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) published its monthly coffee market report for May 2026, showing a continued downward drift in prices as expectations of ample supply strengthened. The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I‑CIP) averaged 256.05 US cents/lb in May 2026, a 3.8% decrease from April 2026. The market continued to react to an improved supply outlook, reinforced by CONAB’s reaffirmation of a record outlook for Brazil’s production in crop year 2026/27.

Despite the decline, prices remain relatively elevated by historical standards. The drop reflects growing market expectations of a possible global surplus in coffee year 2026/27, combined with harvest pressure from Brazil and persistent backwardation in financial markets.

Group Indicator Performance: Arabicas Decline, Robustas Edge Up

Colombian Milds averaged 323.45 US cents/lb in May 2026, down 3.3% from April. Other Milds fell 4.8% to 315.42 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals dropped 6.4% to 293.73 US cents/lb – the steepest decline among the groups. In contrast, Robustas rose 1.1% to 166.51 US cents/lb.

On the futures markets, New York arabica futures fell 5.8% to 268.18 US cents/lb, while London robusta futures gained 0.8% to 151.79 US cents/lb. The arbitrage between the two futures markets contracted by 13.1% to 116.39 US cents/lb, highlighting in particular the improving prospects for arabica production in Brazil.

Group May 2026 (US cents/lb) Change vs April
ICO Composite 256.05 -3.8%
Colombian Milds 323.45 -3.3%
Other Milds 315.42 -4.8%
Brazilian Naturals 293.73 -6.4%
Robustas 166.51 +1.1%

Certified Stocks at Multi‑Month Lows

ICE‑certified robusta stocks fell 0.1% from April to May 2026, closing the month at 0.64 million bags. US‑certified arabica stocks also declined, dropping 13.5% to 0.48 million bags – the lowest level in months. The continued drawdown in certified stocks suggests persistent market uncertainty, as nearby contract premiums are not yet high enough to incentivize deliveries into certified warehouses.

CONAB Forecast: Record Brazil 2026/27 Crop

In mid‑May, Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) released its second crop survey. It raised the total 2026/27 production forecast by about 0.5 million bags to a record 66.7 million bags. Arabica production was increased by 1.67 million bags to 45.8 million bags (+28% y/y). Robusta production was cut by about 1.2 million bags to 20.9 million bags (still a +0.8% y/y increase). CONAB also reported a 3.9% increase in coffee area to 2.34 million hectares, with yields rising to 34.4 bags per hectare. However, CONAB noted that carry‑over stocks remain low and highlighted continued growth in global demand, which tempered some of the market’s bearish sentiment.

Green Bean Exports: Overall Decline, Robusta Growth

Total global green bean exports reached 10.51 million bags in April 2026, down 1.9% from 10.71 million bags in April 2025. All coffee groups recorded declines except Robustas. Details:

  • Colombian Milds: down 14.0% to 0.78 million bags.
  • Other Milds: down 1.1% to 2.31 million bags.
  • Brazilian Naturals: down 14.8% to 2.91 million bags.
  • Robustas: up 11.2% to 4.50 million bags.

As a result, the Arabicas’ share of total green bean exports for the first seven months of coffee year 2025/26 fell to 60.4%, down from 64.2% in the same period a year earlier.

Group April 2026 (million bags) Change vs April 2025
Colombian Milds 0.78 -14.0%
Other Milds 2.31 -1.1%
Brazilian Naturals 2.91 -14.8%
Robustas 4.50 +11.2%

Regional Performance: Asia & Oceania Lead Growth

Total exports of all forms of coffee (green, soluble, roasted) fell 0.9% to 12.05 million bags in April 2026 compared with 12.17 million bags in April 2025. Regional dynamics were mixed:

  • Asia & Oceania: Up 7.3% to 4.64 million bags, led by Vietnam. Vietnamese exports jumped 12.1% to 3.41 million bags – the country’s largest April export volume on record.
  • Africa: Down 22.1% to 1.54 million bags, driven by sharp declines in Ethiopia and Uganda.
  • South America: Down 1.2% to 3.99 million bags, with Colombia recording its fifth consecutive monthly decline.
  • Caribbean, Mexico & Central America: Up 3.3% to 1.88 million bags, led by Honduras (+23.0%).

Price Volatility and El Niño Risks

The intra‑day volatility of the I‑CIP averaged 8.8% in May 2026, down 0.2 percentage points from April. Volatility for Brazilian Naturals and Robustas also declined, while Colombian Milds volatility increased slightly. On the futures markets, New York arabica volatility stood at 10.2%, and London robusta volatility at 10.1%.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño”. Such a pattern could delay Brazil’s September‑October 2026 flowering rains, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop. However, the impact of El Niño in Brazil is complex – it can be positive or negative depending on region, intensity, and timing.

Frequently Asked Questions About the ICO May 2026 Coffee Market Report

Q: What is the ICO Composite Indicator Price?

A: It is a weighted average of the four ICO group indicator prices (Colombian Milds, Other Milds, Brazilian Naturals, and Robustas).

Q: Why did arabica prices fall while robusta prices rose in May 2026?

A: Arabica fell due to record Brazil crop expectations, while robusta demand remained strong amid Red Sea shipping disruptions.

Q: What do falling certified stocks indicate?

A: They suggest that nearby contract premiums are not high enough to encourage deliveries into warehouses, reflecting persistent market uncertainty despite surplus expectations.

Q: How could El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: A “Super El Niño” could delay flowering rains in Brazil and damage next year’s crop, which would support higher prices. But the effect varies by region.

Q: What is the expected global coffee surplus for 2026/27?

A: CONAB’s record Brazil crop points to a significant surplus, but low carry‑over stocks and strong demand may limit its size.

The global coffee market remains caught between large surplus expectations on one hand, and low inventories, El Niño risks, and supply chain disruptions on the other. The ICO’s May 2026 report confirms that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the world’s coffee balance.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on the International Coffee Organization (ICO) market report for May 2026 (CMR-0526).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 13, 2026

Ultrasonic Espresso: UNSW Researchers Develop Cold-Water Brewing Method That Cuts Energy Use by 75%

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: University of New South Wales (UNSW) – Journal of Food Engineering |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 11, 2026

Ultrasonic Espresso: UNSW Researchers Develop Cold-Water Brewing Method That Cuts Energy Use by 75%

Key Takeaways:

  • UNSW Sydney researchers developed a method to brew espresso-strength coffee using room-temperature water and ultrasonic sound waves.
  • The technology reduces energy consumption by up to 75% compared to traditional espresso.
  • The brewing process takes less than 3 minutes and produces coffee with similar richness and concentration to regular espresso.
  • Acoustic cavitation creates tiny jets that break down coffee grounds, accelerating extraction.
  • Blind taste tests with 100 participants found no significant sensory differences between ultrasonic and traditional espresso.
  • Ultrasonic filter coffee received higher ratings than conventionally brewed filter coffee, especially in perceived bitterness.
  • The technology is scalable for industrial coffee production, benefiting ready-to-drink manufacturers.

Researchers at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Sydney have developed a new coffee brewing method that produces espresso-strength coffee using room-temperature water and ultrasonic sound waves, potentially reducing energy consumption by up to 75%.

The innovation challenges one of espresso’s core assumptions—that high-temperature water is essential for extracting the flavor, body, and caffeine concentration associated with traditional espresso. Led by Dr. Francisco Trujillo from UNSW’s School of Chemical Engineering, the research team created what they call an “ultrasonic espresso,” a process that uses high-frequency sound waves to accelerate extraction without the need for heated water. Their findings were published in the Journal of Food Engineering.

How the Technology Works

The system transforms a standard coffee filter basket into an ultrasonic reactor. A small metal transducer attached to the side of the basket generates ultrasonic vibrations that travel through both the coffee grounds and the water. These vibrations create a phenomenon known as acoustic cavitation—the rapid formation and collapse of microscopic bubbles within the liquid. As the bubbles collapse near the coffee particles, they generate tiny jets that break down the surface of the grounds, allowing flavor compounds, oils, and caffeine to be extracted more rapidly. According to the researchers, this process enables espresso-strength extraction at room temperature while significantly reducing energy requirements.

From Cold Brew to Espresso

The technology builds on earlier work by Dr. Trujillo’s team, which used ultrasound to reduce cold-brew preparation times from 12–24 hours to just a few minutes. While successful, the earlier method produced coffee with the characteristic flavor profile of cold brew—typically smoother, less concentrated, and lower in caffeine than espresso. The team’s latest research focused on achieving the intensity and concentration associated with traditional espresso. After testing a range of variables, including grind size, brew ratio, and ultrasound application time, the researchers identified an optimal extraction window of approximately 2.5 to 3 minutes. “The most important factor was the brew ratio, which determines the final concentration of the beverage,” Dr. Trujillo explained. “We also found that finer grinding accelerated extraction and helped achieve espresso-like characteristics.”

Blind Taste Tests Show Comparable Results

To evaluate the sensory quality of the ultrasonic coffee, the researchers conducted a blind tasting study involving around 100 regular coffee drinkers. Participants sampled four beverages: traditional espresso, ultrasonic espresso, traditional filter coffee, and ultrasonic filter coffee. All samples were prepared under controlled conditions, cooled to the same temperature, and served in coded cups in random order. Participants rated each coffee on aroma, flavor, bitterness, and overall preference using a nine-point scale.

Coffee Type Result Compared to Traditional
Ultrasonic Espresso No significant differences across any sensory category
Ultrasonic Filter Coffee Higher overall ratings, especially lower perceived bitterness

The results showed no significant differences between traditional espresso and ultrasonic espresso across any of the sensory categories. Most participants were unable to distinguish between the two brewing methods. The ultrasonic filter coffee performed even better, receiving higher overall ratings than conventionally brewed filter coffee, particularly in perceived bitterness. According to the researchers, the findings demonstrate that ultrasonic extraction can maintain—or in some cases improve—coffee quality despite eliminating the heat typically associated with brewing.

Commercial Potential

While the technology could eventually be adapted for home coffee machines, the researchers believe its greatest impact may be in industrial coffee production. Manufacturers of ready-to-drink coffee beverages could benefit from both reduced energy consumption and faster processing times. Because the process produces a concentrated coffee extract, it could be used directly in ready-to-drink products or shipped as a concentrate for later dilution into cold brew, milk-based beverages, and other coffee drinks. “There are companies that produce coffee products on an industrial scale, and we are confident this ultrasound system can be scaled up to meet their needs,” said Dr. Trujillo. “The energy savings and rapid processing time make it particularly attractive for commercial applications.” If successfully commercialized, ultrasonic brewing could offer a new pathway for producing espresso-strength coffee while reducing both energy consumption and production costs.

Frequently Asked Questions About Ultrasonic Espresso

Q: What are the main advantages of ultrasonic espresso?

A: It cuts energy use by 75%, uses room-temperature water, and produces espresso-strength coffee in under 3 minutes.

Q: Does the coffee taste different from traditional espresso?

A: Blind taste tests found no significant differences in aroma, flavor, or bitterness between ultrasonic and traditional espresso.

Q: How does ultrasound accelerate coffee extraction?

A: Acoustic cavitation creates tiny bubbles that collapse near coffee particles, generating micro-jets that break down the grounds and release flavors faster.

Q: Can this technology be used at home?

A: Currently designed for industrial applications, but it could potentially be adapted for home coffee machines in the future.

Q: What are the commercial applications?

A: Producing coffee concentrates for ready-to-drink beverages, reducing energy costs in factories, and accelerating cold brew production.

Ultrasonic espresso technology could redefine coffee brewing in the future. By cutting energy and time while maintaining quality, it opens new possibilities for both home and industrial production.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a study from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) published in the Journal of Food Engineering.

Reference: Nikunj Naliyadhara et al., “Ultrasound Enables Espresso‑Strength Coffee Brewing in 2–3 Minutes at Low Temperature with Lower Energy Consumption,” Journal of Food Engineering, 2026.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 11, 2026

Scientists from the Technical University of Munich Uncover the Secret of Coffee’s Mild Bitterness

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: Technical University of Munich – Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 9, 2026

Scientists from the Technical University of Munich Uncover the Secret of Coffee’s Mild Bitterness

Key Findings:

  • Pure caffeine is intensely bitter – often described as harsh, medicinal, and almost undrinkable. Yet coffee does not taste nearly that bitter.
  • Researchers from the Technical University of Munich discovered that compounds formed during roasting reduce perceived bitterness by up to 50%.
  • The key compounds are melanoidins, which are created during the Maillard reaction when coffee beans are roasted.
  • In real coffee brews, panelists barely noticed caffeine’s bitterness even when its concentration was increased tenfold.
  • Melanoidins bind with caffeine, forming molecular complexes that prevent caffeine from reaching bitter taste receptors on the tongue.
  • Darker roasts produce more melanoidins, potentially offering stronger bitterness masking effects.
  • The findings open new possibilities for improving instant and ready-to-drink coffees, as well as developing low-bitterness blends.

For centuries, coffee lovers have enjoyed their daily brew without realizing they were experiencing a remarkable chemical deception. Pure caffeine is intensely bitter – often described as harsh, medicinal, and almost undrinkable. Its concentration in a typical cup of coffee far exceeds the level the human tongue can normally detect. Yet coffee does not taste nearly as bitter as it should.

Now, a new study from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) and the Leibniz-Institute for Food Systems Biology has finally solved this long-standing puzzle. Published in the Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry, the research reveals that compounds formed during roasting play a starring role in masking caffeine’s harsh edge.

The Experiment That Cracked the Code

Led by researchers Michael Gigl, Johanna Kreissl, and Oliver Frank, the team used a trained sensory panel – experts skilled in precise taste evaluation – to systematically test how different coffee components interact with caffeine. The results were striking. When caffeine was dissolved in water at normal coffee concentrations, panelists rated its bitterness as intensely unpleasant. But when the same amount of caffeine was combined with key coffee compounds – particularly chlorogenic acids and melanoidins – the perceived bitterness dropped by approximately 50%. In real coffee brews, the masking effect was even stronger. Panelists barely noticed caffeine’s signature bitterness even when its concentration was increased up to ten times higher than usual.

Melanoidins Take Center Stage

Using advanced nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, the scientists confirmed that caffeine forms complexes with melanoidins – the high-molecular-weight polymers produced through the Maillard reaction during roasting. These complexes appear to reduce the amount of “free” caffeine available to bind to bitter taste receptors on the tongue. The larger molecular structures may also create physical barriers or steric hindrance, limiting access to those receptors.

“Chlorogenic acid alone had little effect,” the researchers noted, “but when combined with melanoidins at natural concentrations found in coffee, the bitter intensity was strongly reduced.” Melanoidins not only suppress bitterness but also help transform the quality of the remaining bitterness into something more pleasant and “coffee-like,” rather than medicinal or harsh.

Compound Source Effect on Bitterness
Caffeine Green beans Extremely harsh bitterness
Chlorogenic acids Green beans Little effect alone
Melanoidins Formed during roasting Reduce bitterness by ~50%

Why This Matters for the Coffee Industry

The findings highlight the critical importance of the roasting process in shaping coffee’s final sensory profile. Darker roasts, which generate more melanoidins, may offer stronger masking effects – a hypothesis the team plans to explore in future studies. For the specialty coffee world, this research opens exciting possibilities: improving instant and ready-to-drink coffees by optimizing melanoidin content, developing low-bitterness blends while maintaining satisfying caffeine levels, and refining roasting techniques to craft more balanced and approachable cups.

“The significance of this work lies in explaining why coffee beverages do not taste of caffeine, even though the caffeine concentration of coffee is far above the perceivable level,” said Michael Gigl of TUM’s ZIEL Institute for Food and Health.

A Symphony of Chemistry

Coffee contains hundreds of compounds that contribute to its complex flavor. While caffeine is the most famous bitter player, the study underscores that the overall taste emerges from intricate interactions rather than any single molecule. As Gigl and colleagues concluded, a “plethora of bitter stimuli” generated during roasting ultimately creates coffee’s unique and beloved profile. So the next time you sip a perfectly balanced espresso or pour-over, remember: you are not just tasting beans and water. You are experiencing a masterful chemical performance – one in which the roast itself quietly tames the bitterness and lets the aroma and nuance shine through.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Bitterness and Roasting

Q: Why doesn’t coffee taste extremely bitter despite containing caffeine?

A: Because melanoidins formed during roasting bind to caffeine and prevent it from reaching the bitter taste receptors on your tongue.

Q: What are melanoidins?

A: High-molecular-weight compounds formed during the Maillard reaction when coffee beans are roasted. They are responsible for the brown color and roasted flavor.

Q: Does the roast level affect coffee bitterness?

A: Yes. Darker roasts produce more melanoidins, which may enhance the bitterness masking effect. Further studies are needed to confirm this.

Q: How can these findings be used in the coffee industry?

A: They can help improve instant and ready-to-drink coffees, develop low-bitterness blends while maintaining caffeine levels, and refine roasting techniques.

Q: Was this study published in a peer-reviewed journal?

A: Yes, it was published in the Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry in 2026.

In every cup of coffee you enjoy, a complex chemical story unfolds. Roasting is not just a way to turn green beans brown – it is a precise tool for shaping flavor and making coffee balanced and pleasurable. Science is opening new frontiers in understanding and improving this ancient beverage.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a scientific study from the Technical University of Munich and the Leibniz-Institute for Food Systems Biology, published in the Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry (2026).

Reference: Michael Gigl et al., “Impact of Interactions between Melanoidins and Caffeine on the Bitter Taste of Coffee Beverages,” Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry, 2026. DOI: 10.1021/acs.jafc.5c17022

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 9, 2026

US Coffee Consumption 2026 by the Numbers

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: National Coffee Association (NCA) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 6, 2026

US Coffee Consumption 2026 by the Numbers: The Rise of Specialty Coffee and What It Means for Global Markets

Key Numbers:

  • 66% of American adults drank coffee yesterday – more than any other beverage including water.
  • 47% drank specialty coffee daily, surpassing traditional coffee (42%).
  • 58% had specialty coffee in the past week, a 10-point increase since 2021.
  • 45% of Americans consumed espresso-based beverages weekly (lattes, cappuccinos, espressos).
  • Age group 25-39 leads consumption: 69% weekly for specialty coffee.
  • Hispanic Americans are the highest specialty coffee consumers (67% weekly).
  • Northeast and West regions have the highest consumption (64% and 61% weekly).
  • Medium roast is the most popular (58%), followed by dark (39%) and light (13%).

The 2026 National Coffee Data Trends report, released by the National Coffee Association (NCA), confirms that coffee remains America’s favorite beverage. 66% of adults drank coffee yesterday, ahead of tap or bottled water. However, the real story lies in a deep shift within the US market.

For the first time, specialty coffee is achieving sustainable growth over traditional coffee. This shift reflects changing consumer tastes and carries major implications for global production, arabica and robusta futures, roasting strategies, and distribution worldwide. In this report, we present the most revealing numbers and analyze what they mean for the global coffee market.

1. Daily and Weekly Consumption Basics

January 2026 data shows specialty coffee outpacing traditional coffee in daily consumption for the first time on a broad scale. Daily specialty coffee penetration reached 47%, versus 42% for traditional coffee. On a weekly basis, 58% of Americans drank specialty coffee, compared to 62% for traditional coffee – a very close gap.

Coffee Type Daily Penetration Weekly Penetration
Specialty Coffee 47% 58%
Traditional Coffee 42% 62%
Espresso Based Beverages (EBBs) 29% 45%
Cold Specialty Beverages (N-EBBs)* 17% 27%

* Includes cold brew, frozen blended coffee, and nitro coffee.

Since 2021, weekly specialty coffee consumption has increased by 10 percentage points (from 48% to 58%). Meanwhile, weekly traditional coffee consumption has remained stable at around 62%. This means nearly all growth in the US coffee market comes from the specialty segment.

2. Who Drinks Specialty Coffee? Demographic Profile

By age: The 25-39 age group is the strongest driver. 69% of them drank specialty coffee in the past week, versus only 46% of those aged 60+. Moreover, 60% of the 25-39 group consumed espresso beverages, and 40% drank cold specialty drinks. Young adults (18-24) prefer specialty (50%) over traditional (40%), signaling a lasting generational shift.

Age Group Specialty (Weekly) Espresso Beverages Cold Specialty
18-24 50% 38% 33%
25-39 69% 60% 40%
40-59 60% 47% 27%
60+ 46% 30% 13%

By ethnicity: Hispanic Americans are the highest specialty coffee consumers (67% weekly), followed by Asian Americans (64%). African Americans (57%) and Caucasian Americans (56%) follow. Hispanic Americans also lead in espresso beverages (57%) and cold specialty drinks (39%).

By region: The Northeast leads with 64% weekly specialty consumption, followed by the West (61%), then the South (57%), and finally the Midwest (49%).

3. How Do Americans Drink Their Specialty Coffee?

Temperature: 43% prefer hot specialty coffee, while 32% consume it cold. In contrast, traditional coffee is 54% hot and only 13% cold. Specialty coffee thus dominates the cold beverage market year-round, even in January.

Roast level: Medium roast is the most popular (58%), followed by dark roast (39%), then light roast (13%). This confirms a preference for balanced, classic flavors.

Additives (sweeteners and whiteners): 59% of specialty coffee drinkers use sweeteners or flavored syrup. 58% use whiteners (milk, cream, or milk alternatives). The 25-39 age group records the highest sweetener usage (70%). Hispanic Americans are more likely to add white sugar and honey.

Out-of-home preparation: 36% of specialty coffee drinkers buy their coffee away from home (cafés, restaurants, workplaces), compared to only 23% of traditional drinkers. This highlights the importance of the hospitality and café sector for specialty coffee growth.

4. What Do These Numbers Mean for the Global Coffee Market?

The US shift to specialty coffee is not just a local taste change; it is a strong signal for global markets.

1. Demand for high-quality arabica will increase: Specialty coffee’s heavy reliance on arabica puts pressure on producing countries to increase output while maintaining quality. However, a record Brazil 2026/27 crop (71.9 million bags) may create a temporary surplus, but strong US demand will absorb much of it.

2. Arabica prices may find support despite surplus: Prices usually fall when supply rises. Yet 58% of Americans drinking specialty coffee weekly means that any production increase may be met by rising consumption, limiting price collapse. Additionally, tight spot supplies (falling exchange inventories) support prices in the short term.

3. Robusta market faces pressure: As traditional coffee’s share declines, Vietnam increases its robusta exports. This could lead to a robusta surplus and downward pressure on prices. Roasters will need to find new uses for robusta.

4. Flavor innovation and new formats are essential: 35% of specialty coffee drinkers consider flavor part of the definition of “specialty coffee.” The strong preference for sweet flavors forces producers to develop blends that meet these tastes. Meanwhile, the popularity of cold drinks requires investment in chilled distribution channels.

5. Demographic shifts reshape global marketing: Specialty coffee’s concentration among 25-39 year olds and Hispanic Americans means brands must redirect their campaigns and sales channels. Higher out-of-home consumption (36%) benefits global café chains.

6. Supply chain and climate challenges remain: With El Niño and Strait of Hormuz disruptions persisting, specialty coffee supply chains become more fragile. Prices may experience sharp volatility despite a theoretical surplus.

5. What Does This Mean for the Arab World, Especially the Gulf?

The Gulf market is experiencing massive growth in specialty coffee. US data confirms this is a global trend. For coffee-importing Arab countries, this means:

  • Higher prices: If strong US demand continues, arabica prices may rise globally, increasing import costs for local roasters and cafés.
  • Opportunity for differentiation: Arab cafés can play on distinctive flavors (spice, floral, fruit) that US specialty drinkers are open to. This opens doors for collaboration with US roasters or exporting innovative Arab blends.
  • Need for investment in education and training: To meet global quality standards, the Gulf coffee sector must strengthen Q Grader and sensory analysis programs, just as labs like Kanamori Coffee Lab do in Japan.

Frequently Asked Questions About US Coffee Consumption 2026

Q: What percentage of Americans drink coffee daily compared to other beverages?

A: 66% drink coffee daily, making it the most consumed beverage ahead of tap or bottled water.

Q: Has specialty coffee truly overtaken traditional coffee?

A: In daily consumption, yes: 47% specialty vs. 42% traditional. Weekly, traditional still leads slightly (62% vs. 58%).

Q: Which age group consumes the most specialty coffee?

A: The 25-39 age group, at 69% weekly.

Q: What is the most popular roast in America?

A: Medium roast (58%), followed by dark (39%), then light (13%).

Q: How do these numbers affect global coffee prices?

A: Strong US demand for arabica supports prices, while Brazil’s record crop may create temporary surplus. Robusta prices trend downward due to Vietnam exports.

Q: Which flavors do US specialty coffee drinkers prefer most?

A: Sweet flavors: chocolate (85%), caramel and brown sugar (78%), vanilla (79%).

The 2026 data shows that specialty coffee is no longer a luxury but the backbone of the US coffee market. This sends clear messages to producers, roasters, and investors worldwide: quality, innovation, and understanding demographic shifts are the keys to success in the coming decade.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on the National Coffee Association’s 2026 National Coffee Data Trends Specialty Coffee Report.

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 6, 2026

Brazil Coffee Output to Reach Record 71.9M Bags

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report BR2026-0025
Date: June 1, 2026

Brazil Coffee Output to Reach Record 71.9M Bags

Executive Summary

  • Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags, a 14% increase over the previous season.
  • Arabica output is expected to surge 25% to 47.5 million bags, ending five years of low harvests.
  • Robusta (conilon) production is forecast at 24.4 million bags, a slight decline from 25 million bags due to cooler weather and excess rain in some regions.
  • Exports for 2026/27 are projected to jump 30% to 49 million bags, supported by the record crop.
  • However, low stocks and fears of an El Niño event are making exporters cautious and holding back deals.
  • Domestic consumption remains stable at 22.39 million bags, with a 0.5% annual increase.
  • The “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” management technique is helping farmers optimize yields and reduce costs.

Brazil is set to produce a record 71.9 million 60‑kg bags of coffee in the 2026/27 season. This is a 14% increase over the previous cycle. The outlook is especially bright for arabica coffee.

Optimal weather in major growing regions has driven the recovery. The record crop follows five years of low arabica production caused by adverse conditions.

Exports are expected to surge 30% to 49 million bags. However, exporters remain cautious. They are holding back on deals because of low stocks and uncertainties about a possible El Niño event.

El Niño could affect the end of the current harvest and the 2027/28 cycle. These factors are strongly influencing coffee prices in the Brazilian market.

Production Outlook

The positive biennial cycle is a key driver. Arabica trees naturally produce more in alternating years. This year is a high‑yield year.

Favorable weather conditions and rising global prices have also encouraged farmers to expand their coffee areas. Technology has enabled higher planting density per hectare.

As a result, total coffee production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags. This is a 14% increase from the 63 million bags estimated for 2025/26.

The National Supply Company (CONAB) projects a slightly lower figure of 66.7 million bags. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) projects 65.1 million bags.

Both official agencies use different methodologies. They have historically provided lower estimates than the USDA.

Arabica and Robusta Performance

Arabica production is forecast to reach 47.5 million bags. This is a 25% increase over the previous cycle. The growth is driven by the positive biennial cycle and expanded cultivated area.

Technological improvements in crop management also played a role. Milder temperatures before flowering supported good crop development.

In contrast, robusta (conilon) production is forecast at 24.4 million bags. This is a slight decline from the 25 million bags estimated for 2025/26.

Colder weather and periods of excessive rainfall reduced yields in some main producing regions. The strong growth of the 2025/26 harvest also made it difficult to sustain the same level of production.

Producers are increasingly worried about climate change. Many are adjusting their practices, seeking more shaded areas, and looking for resilient varieties.

Regional Performance

Minas Gerais remains Brazil’s largest coffee‑producing state. It is forecast to harvest 34.1 million bags in 2026/27, up from 26.7 million in 2025/26.

The increase is due to the positive biennial cycle and better rainfall distribution. Rainfall was especially good before flowering and through March.

Espírito Santo, the second‑largest producer, is forecast at 21.4 million bags. Arabica production there is expected at 4.4 million bags, while robusta accounts for 17 million bags.

São Paulo, which grows only arabica, saw growth of more than 15% over the previous cycle, despite varied weather conditions.

Bahia has now become the second‑largest robusta producer, surpassing Rondônia. Its growth comes from advanced technology and high‑performance irrigated areas.

Rondônia is expected to see a 19% increase in robusta production. Favorable weather and the renewal of crops with higher‑yielding clonal plants are the main reasons.

Table 1: Brazilian Coffee Production by State (million 60‑kg bags)

State 2025/26 2026/27 Change
Minas Gerais 26.7 34.1 +27.7%
Espírito Santo 20.9 21.4 +2.4%
São Paulo 4.8 5.5 +14.6%
Bahia 4.7 5.2 +10.6%
Rondônia 2.3 2.8 +21.7%

Prices and Production Costs

Arabica prices rose sharply at the end of 2025 due to limited supply. However, prices started to decrease with the forecast of a larger harvest.

In April 2026, arabica coffee averaged BRL 1,811.87 (USD 360.03) per 60‑kg bag. This was a 5% drop from March and a 28% drop from April 2024.

Robusta prices fell even more. In April 2026, robusta traded at BRL 917.05 (USD 182.26). That was a 10% monthly drop and a 46% drop from April 2025.

Fears of an El Niño event have dampened sales activity. Many producers who were liquidating their remaining stocks are now holding back.

Production costs remain high. Fertilizer prices have risen, and freight costs have increased due to higher diesel prices. Diesel climbed about 24% in March 2026.

To cope, many farmers are adopting the “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” technique. This method divides farms into two plots and alternates skeleton pruning.

As a result, farmers focus only on the plot in its high‑yield phase. The system also increases organic matter and reduces fertilizer needs.

Domestic Consumption and Exports

Brazil’s domestic coffee consumption is forecast at 22.39 million bags for 2026/27. This is a slight 0.5% increase over the previous year.

Consumption declined by more than 2% in 2025 due to high prices. However, it recovered in early 2026 as supermarket prices dropped.

In the first four months of 2026, consumption rose 2% compared to the same period in 2025. The average Brazilian drinks about 3.8 cups of coffee per day.

Exports for 2026/27 are forecast to jump 30% to 49 million bags. This is based on the record harvest. However, low stocks have prevented even higher volumes.

Between January and April 2026, Brazil exported 11.5 million bags, a 24% decrease from the same period in 2025. April exports increased 1.2%, signaling a gradual recovery.

Germany remains the top buyer of Brazilian coffee, followed by the United States, Italy, Japan, and Belgium. The United States holds over 30% of the market share for Brazilian coffee imports.

Specialty coffees accounted for almost 18% of total exports in early 2026, though that volume was 36% lower than the same period in 2025.

Policy and Minimum Prices

The government has allocated BRL 7.37 billion for the 2026/27 Coffee Economy Defense Fund (FUNCAFE). The fund supports crop management, marketing financing, and working capital.

Minimum guaranteed prices for the 2026/27 harvest have been increased. Arabica now has a minimum price of BRL 792.53 per 60‑kg bag, a 20% rise from the previous season.

Robusta’s minimum price was set at BRL 556.97 per bag, a 12% increase. These prices are valid from April 2026 through March 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will Brazil produce in 2026/27?

Production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags, a 14% increase over the previous season.

Why is arabica production expected to surge?

The positive biennial cycle, expanded planted area, technological advances, and favorable weather are the main drivers.

Which Brazilian state produces the most coffee?

Minas Gerais is the largest producer, forecast at 34.1 million bags in 2026/27.

How will El Niño affect Brazilian coffee?

There is a 60% chance of El Niño between May and July 2026. It could negatively impact the 2027/28 harvest through higher temperatures and altered rainfall.

What is the “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” technique?

It is a management method that divides a farm into two plots and alternates skeleton pruning, allowing farmers to focus on high‑yield areas and reduce costs.

What are the main export destinations for Brazilian coffee?

Germany, the United States, Italy, Japan, and Belgium are the top buyers.

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília | Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report BR2026-0025 | Date: June 1, 2026

Chinese Study: Sweetened Coffee Linked to Lower Risk of Early Death

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: American College of Physicians / Annals of Internal Medicine |
Date: June 3, 2026

Chinese Study: Sweetened Coffee Linked to Lower Risk of Early Death

Key Findings:

  • Study from Southern Medical University in Guangzhou tracked over 171,000 people for 7 years.
  • Unsweetened coffee reduced death risk by 16 to 21 percent.
  • Coffee sweetened with one teaspoon of sugar per cup reduced risk by 29 to 31 percent.
  • Results for artificial sweeteners were inconclusive.
  • The study is observational, not experimental. It does not prove direct cause and effect.
  • Warning: Ready-made coffee drinks from chains contain much higher amounts of sugar.

Researchers from Southern Medical University in Guangzhou, China, published a new study in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine. The study examined the effect of sweetened coffee on the risk of early death. It included more than 171,000 participants from the UK Biobank project. The average follow-up period was about seven years.

As a result, the study found that drinking moderate amounts of coffee, whether sweetened or unsweetened, is associated with a lower risk of death. This research is one of the first large-scale studies to directly compare the effect of adding sugar to coffee on long-term health outcomes.

Key Results: Up to 31 Percent Lower Death Risk

The researchers divided participants into groups based on their coffee consumption. These groups included non-drinkers, unsweetened coffee drinkers, sugar-sweetened coffee drinkers, and artificially sweetened coffee drinkers. After seven years of follow-up, the results were clear.

First, people who drank any amount of unsweetened coffee were 16 to 21 percent less likely to die compared to non-drinkers. Second, those who drank 1.5 to 3.5 cups per day of sugar-sweetened coffee were 29 to 31 percent less likely to die. The researchers noted that these participants added only about one teaspoon of sugar (approximately 4 grams) per cup on average.

In contrast, the results for those who used artificial sweeteners were inconclusive. The reduced risk applied to deaths from cancer and cardiovascular disease as well.

Summary of Results

Coffee Type Daily Amount Reduction in Death Risk
Unsweetened coffee Any amount 16% to 21%
Sugar-sweetened coffee (1 tsp per cup) 1.5 to 3.5 cups 29% to 31%
Coffee with artificial sweeteners Varies Inconclusive

Why Is Coffee Beneficial? Possible Mechanisms

Coffee contains biologically active compounds that offer potential health benefits. The most important are antioxidants and polyphenols, especially chlorogenic acids. These compounds fight oxidative stress and inflammation. They also improve blood vessel function and glucose metabolism. In addition, caffeine enhances cognitive function and may reduce the risk of neurodegenerative diseases.

As a result, moderate coffee consumption has been linked to a lower risk of type 2 diabetes, stroke, heart disease, certain cancers, liver disease, and depression. However, the question remains: why did coffee with a small amount of sugar show even better results? Researchers believe that a small amount of sugar (one teaspoon) is not enough to cancel out the large benefits of coffee. But this needs further confirmation.

Important Caveats: Not a License to Add Excess Sugar

The researchers emphasize that these results do not mean adding sugar to coffee is beneficial in itself. The study observed an association, not a direct causal relationship. It is possible that people who regularly drink sweetened coffee also have a generally healthier lifestyle. Furthermore, the amount of sugar used in the study was very small (one teaspoon per cup).

In contrast, ready-made coffee drinks from major chains contain much larger amounts of sugar. A single drink can contain 20 to 50 grams of sugar. This far exceeds health recommendations. The World Health Organization recommends that free sugars should be less than 10 percent of daily calories. For an average adult, that is about 50 grams (12 teaspoons) per day. The ideal amount is less than 5 percent (25 grams or 6 teaspoons).

Therefore, researchers advise drinking coffee black or with a very small amount of sugar (no more than one teaspoon per cup). Avoid heavily sweetened drinks, heavy cream, and flavored syrups. Home brewing is preferable for better control of ingredients. Individuals with insomnia, anxiety, or stomach issues should consult their doctor.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Sweetened Coffee Study

Q: Does this study prove that adding sugar to coffee is healthy?

A: No. The study found a statistical association, not a causal relationship. The amount of sugar used was very small (one teaspoon per cup). A generally healthy lifestyle may also play a role.

Q: What is the optimal amount of coffee per day according to the study?

A: The optimal range is 1.5 to 3.5 cups per day. This amount was linked to the largest reduction in death risk.

Q: Do the results apply to instant coffee?

A: Yes, the study included various types of coffee. However, benefits are usually greater with filtered or freshly ground coffee.

Q: What is the daily sugar limit according to global guidelines?

A: The WHO recommends less than 10 percent of daily calories (about 50 grams or 12 teaspoons). The ideal is less than 5 percent (25 grams or 6 teaspoons).

Q: What about coffee with artificial sweeteners?

A: The results were inconclusive. There is not enough evidence of benefits or harms from this study.

Q: Can I drink sweetened coffee from commercial coffee shops?

A: Most coffee shop drinks contain very high amounts of sugar (20 to 50 grams). This may cancel out potential benefits and increase health risks. It is better to order black coffee or add a small amount of sugar yourself.

Prepared by: Scientific News Unit – Qahwa World – based on a study published in Annals of Internal Medicine on May 31, 2022, and the accompanying press release from the American College of Physicians.

Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes and does not replace medical advice.

Publication date: June 3, 2026

Specialty Coffee in America Hits Record High in 2026

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: National Coffee Association (NCA) |
Author: Specialty Reports Unit |
Date: June 2, 2026

Specialty Coffee in America Hits Record High in 2026

Key Takeaways:

  • 47% of American adults drank specialty coffee yesterday. This equals the highest level ever recorded.
  • Specialty coffee surpasses traditional coffee daily (47% vs. 42%).
  • 58% of Americans had specialty coffee in the past week. That is a 10 point increase since 2021.
  • The 25 to 39 age group leads consumption. 69% of them drank specialty coffee in the past week.
  • Espresso based beverages (lattes, cappuccinos) reached 45% weekly penetration.
  • Sweet flavors like chocolate and caramel top the preference list for specialty drinkers.
  • 36% of specialty coffee drinkers had their coffee prepared out of home. Only 23% of traditional drinkers did the same.

The National Coffee Association (NCA) released its 2026 National Coffee Data Trends Specialty Coffee Report today. The report shows that specialty coffee continues to achieve record numbers. Specifically, 47% of American adults drank specialty coffee on the day before the survey. This matches the record high set in 2025.

In addition, specialty coffee outperforms traditional coffee, which stood at 42% daily. The data points to a clear shift in consumer behavior toward quality and diverse flavors. Specialty coffee confirms its position as a favorite drink among new age groups.

Record High Consumption for Specialty Coffee

The Spring 2026 NCDT report found that 66% of American adults drank coffee of any type yesterday. This makes coffee the number one beverage in America, ahead of tap or bottled water. However, the real growth happens in the specialty coffee segment. Daily specialty consumption reached 47%, while traditional coffee remained stable at 42%.

Furthermore, weekly specialty coffee consumption has grown steadily. It increased from 48% in 2021 to 58% in January 2026. This represents a 10 percentage point increase over five years. Espresso based beverages (EBBs) are the main driver of this growth.

Coffee Type Daily Penetration (Jan 2026) Weekly Penetration (Jan 2026)
Specialty Coffee 47% 58%
Traditional Coffee 42% 62%
Espresso Based Beverages (EBBs) 29% 45%
Cold Specialty Beverages (N EBBs)* 17% 27%

* Includes cold brew, frozen blended coffee, and nitro coffee.

Age Group 25 39 Drives Growth and Demand for Innovation

The data shows that adults aged 25 to 39 are the main engine of the specialty coffee market. Specifically, 69% of this group drank specialty coffee in the past week. This is the highest percentage among all age groups. In contrast, only 46% of those aged 60 and above did the same.

As a result, younger consumers prefer espresso based drinks and cold beverages. For example, 60% of the 25 39 group had an espresso beverage in the past week. Cold brew consumption among them reached 28%. Among seniors, that number was only 6%.

Moreover, younger adults (18 to 24) showed a stronger preference for specialty coffee over traditional coffee. Their weekly specialty penetration was 50% compared to 40% for traditional. This suggests a lasting shift in consumption habits for future generations.

Age Group Specialty Coffee (Weekly) Espresso Beverages Cold Specialty Drinks
18 24 50% 38% 33%
25 39 69% 60% 40%
40 59 60% 47% 27%
60+ 46% 30% 13%

Flavor Preferences: Sweet Dominates, Specialty Drinkers Seek More

The report revealed that 35% of specialty coffee drinkers consider flavor as part of what makes a coffee “specialty.” Therefore, the study tested 22 flavor descriptions to identify the most preferred ones. Sweet flavors topped the list broadly. Chocolate (cocoa, milk chocolate, malt) scored 85% appeal among specialty drinkers. Caramel and brown sugar came second with 78%, followed by vanilla at 79%.

In contrast, specialty coffee drinkers showed greater openness to less common flavors compared to traditional drinkers. For example, the appeal for citrus notes (orange, lemon) rose to 64% among specialty drinkers versus 52% for traditional drinkers. Likewise, liking for rose and spice notes like cinnamon and cardamom increased significantly.

As a result, the study recommends that coffee shops and brands offer a mix of 4 to 5 core flavors. According to a TUR (Total Unduplicated Reach) analysis, offering chocolate, vanilla, and a tropical fruit can reach more than 70% of specialty coffee drinkers. Adding more flavors does not deliver significant additional reach.

Buying Behavior: Out of Home, Cold Drinks, and Sweeteners

The report noted clear behavioral differences between specialty and traditional coffee drinkers. First, 36% of specialty drinkers bought their coffee ready made from outside the home (cafes, restaurants, gas stations). This compares to only 23% for traditional coffee drinkers. This reflects the importance of out of home channels for the specialty segment.

Second, 32% of Americans consumed cold specialty coffee during the past week. This is a large number compared to traditional coffee, where only 13% was consumed cold. Cold brew and frozen blended drinks are key drivers of this trend, even during winter months.

Third, sweetener use increased among specialty coffee drinkers. Specifically, 59% of them added sweeteners or flavored syrup to their daily coffee. This percentage rises to 70% among the 25 to 39 age group. Hispanic Americans are more likely to add white sugar and honey. Meanwhile, 58% of specialty drinkers used whiteners (milk, cream, or milk alternatives).

Frequently Asked Questions About the 2026 Specialty Coffee Report

Q: What percentage of Americans drink coffee daily overall?

A: According to the Spring 2026 report, 66% of American adults drink coffee daily. This makes coffee the most consumed beverage, ahead of tap or bottled water.

Q: How does the NCA define “specialty coffee”?

A: Specialty coffee includes any espresso based beverage (lattes, cappuccinos), non espresso beverages like cold brew and nitro, plus traditional coffee that consumers believe is made from premium beans.

Q: Which age group consumes the most specialty coffee?

A: The 25 to 39 age group is the highest consumer. 69% of them drank specialty coffee in the past week, the highest among all age groups.

Q: What are the most preferred flavors for specialty coffee drinkers?

A: Sweet flavors lead the list. Chocolate has 85% appeal, followed by caramel and brown sugar at 78%, and vanilla at 79%.

Q: Do Americans prefer hot or cold specialty coffee?

A: 43% of specialty coffee drinkers prefer it hot, while 32% consume it cold. Cold beverages show steady growth even during winter months.

Q: Where do specialty coffee drinkers usually get their coffee?

A: 36% buy their coffee ready made away from home (cafes, restaurants, workplaces). The rest prepare it at home using drip makers or espresso machines.

Author: Specialty Reports Unit – Based on the National Coffee Association (NCA) press release issued June 2, 2026, and the 2026 NCDT Specialty Coffee Report.

All rights reserved. This report may be republished with attribution.

Publication date: June 2, 2026

Brazil Coffee Production to Hit Record 66.7 Million Bags in 2026

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília
Source: National Supply Company of Brazil (Conab), Cecafé, MDIC
Date: May 26, 2026This update covers expectations for a Brazil coffee production 2026 record, based on the latest reports and forecasts.

Brazil Coffee Output to Hit Record 66.7 Million Bags in 2026

Executive Summary

  • Brazil’s coffee production for the 2026 harvest is forecast at 66.7 million 60 kg bags, an 18% increase over 2025 and a new record, surpassing the 2020 harvest of 63.08 million bags.
  • Arabica production is expected to reach 45.8 million bags (+28%), while Robusta (Conilon) is forecast at 20.9 million bags (+0.8%).
  • Total planted area rises 3.9% to 2.34 million hectares, with national average productivity projected at 34.4 bags per hectare (+13%).
  • Minas Gerais, the largest producer, is forecast at 33.4 million bags (+29.8%). Espírito Santo follows with 18 million bags (+3%).
  • Brazil exported 11.5 million bags from January to April 2026, down 22.5% year-on-year due to low stocks, but April exports jumped 11.2% to 4.27 million bags, signaling recovery with the new harvest.
  • The USDA projects world production for 2025/26 at 178.8 million bags (+2%), with global demand rising 1.3% to 173.9 million bags, keeping prices elevated.

The National Supply Company of Brazil (Conab) released its second harvest survey on May 21, 2026, forecasting a record coffee production of 66.7 million 60 kg bags for the 2026 crop year, an 18% increase over the previous season.

If confirmed, this will be the largest harvest in Conab’s historical series, surpassing the 2020 record of 63.08 million bags.

The positive biennial cycle (higher production year for Arabica), the entry of new areas into production, and favorable weather conditions are the main drivers of this growth.

The total coffee area is expected to increase by 3.9% to 2.34 million hectares, comprising 1.94 million hectares of productive fields and 401,700 hectares of young plantations. National average productivity is projected to recover by 13% to 34.4 bags per hectare.

Arabica and Robusta Production

Arabica coffee production is forecast at 45.8 million bags, a 28% increase over 2025. This would be the third-highest Arabica harvest on record, behind only 2020 and 2018.

The expansion is driven by the positive biennial cycle, a larger area under production, and favorable weather conditions, particularly good rainfall distribution during the flowering period.

Robusta (Conilon) production is expected to reach 20.9 million bags, a modest 0.8% increase. While the harvested area is projected to grow to 388,220 hectares, average yields are estimated to drop 3.5% to 53.9 bags per hectare.

This decline reflects the high yields achieved in 2025 (a natural off-year for Robusta’s biennial cycle is less pronounced) and below-average temperatures in Espírito Santo during the production cycle, which affected plant physiology.

Production by State

Minas Gerais, the country’s largest coffee producer, is forecast to harvest 33.4 million bags (combining both species), a 29.8% increase over 2025.

This result is attributed to the positive biennial cycle combined with better rainfall distribution, especially in the months preceding flowering, as well as favorable weather through March, which provided good grain formation.

Espírito Santo, the second-largest producer, is expected to harvest 18 million bags, a 3% increase. Arabica production in the state is projected to rise 27.9% to 4.4 million bags, benefiting from the high biennial cycle.

However, Conilon production is forecast at 13.6 million bags, a 4.2% decrease due to the record-high performance in 2025 and below-average temperatures.

Bahia is expected to produce 4.7 million bags (+5.9%), supported by consistent weather, increased producer investment, and new areas entering production. São Paulo is forecast at 5.9 million bags (+24.6%), where only Arabica is grown. Rondônia is expected to produce 2.8 million bags (+19.4%), driven by the renewal of genetic material with more productive clonal plants and favorable weather.

Table 1: Brazil Coffee Production Forecast by State (2026, million 60 kg bags)

State 2026 Production (million bags) Change vs 2025 Main species
Minas Gerais 33.4 +29.8% Arabica
Espírito Santo 18.0 +3.0% Robusta (Conilon)
São Paulo 5.9 +24.6% Arabica
Bahia 4.7 +5.9% Both
Rondônia 2.8 +19.4% Robusta

Exports: April Recovery Signals New Harvest

According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), Brazil exported 4.27 million 60 kg bags in April 2026, an 11.2% increase compared to April 2025 (3.84 million bags). This was the first monthly increase in 2026, indicating the beginning of an export recovery as the new harvest enters the market.

“The rise in April reflects the start of the new harvest season in Brazil, which contributed to increased coffee availability for export,” said Horacio Miranda, analyst at hEDGEpoint. This upward trend supports Cecafé’s expectations of higher exports in the second half of the year.

In contrast, total exports from January to April 2026 reached 11.6 million bags, a 16.1% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. Export revenue for the first four months totaled $4.49 billion, down 14.4% year-on-year, according to MDIC data.

The decline in early 2026 reflects low domestic stocks resulting from limited production in previous years and strong export demand.

The main destinations in April were Germany, the United States, Italy, Belgium, and Japan.

Table 2: Brazil Monthly Coffee Exports (million 60 kg bags)

Month 2024 (million bags) 2025 (million bags) 2026 (million bags) Change (Apr 2026 vs Apr 2025)
January 3.2 3.1 2.9 –
February 2.8 2.9 2.4 –
March 3.0 3.2 2.6 –
April 3.4 3.84 4.27 +11.2%

Global Market Outlook

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts world coffee production for the 2025/26 cycle at 178.8 million 60 kg bags, a 2% increase over the previous cycle.

Despite the production increase, no significant price reductions are expected due to low carryover stocks from the previous cycle and a projected 1.3% increase in global demand to 173.9 million bags.

Brazil’s record harvest will play a major role in replenishing global stocks and meeting rising demand, particularly for high-quality Arabica beans.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will Brazil produce in 2026?

Brazil is forecast to produce 66.7 million 60 kg bags, an 18% increase over 2025, setting a new record.

What is driving the production increase?

The positive biennial cycle (high-yield year for Arabica), expansion of planted area (+3.9%), and favorable weather conditions, especially good rainfall distribution.

Which Brazilian state produces the most coffee?

Minas Gerais is the largest producer, forecast at 33.4 million bags, a 29.8% increase.

How are Brazil’s coffee exports performing?

April exports jumped 11.2% to 4.27 million bags, signaling recovery with the new harvest. However, January-April exports were down 16.1% due to low stocks.

What is the global coffee market outlook?

USDA projects world production at 178.8 million bags (+2%) and demand at 173.9 million bags (+1.3%), keeping prices elevated due to low stocks.

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília | Source: Conab, Cecafé, MDIC, USDA | Date: May 26, 2026