Tag: certified stocks

ICO Coffee Market Report August 2026: Prices Hold Steady

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, August 2026
Date: September 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report August 2026: Prices Hold Steady

Executive Summary

  • The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.29 US cents/lb in August 2026, effectively unchanged from July (287.26 US cents/lb).
  • A mid-month rally, driven by El Niño fears and tight Arabica supplies, was reversed by favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of increased supply.
  • Colombian Milds rose 1.1% to 387.46 US cents/lb, while Other Milds gained 0.7% to 361.31 US cents/lb. Robustas fell 2.2% to 180.63 US cents/lb.
  • US certified Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags, the lowest level since 1999. London Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags, a nine-month high.
  • Global green bean exports rose 6.3% to 10.76 million bags in July, driven entirely by a 32% surge in Robusta shipments.
  • World coffee production is estimated to rise 4.4% to 183.6 million bags in 2025/26, while consumption is projected to decline 0.8%.
  • The global market is projected to record a surplus of 3.0 million bags in 2025/26, the first after four consecutive years of deficit.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.29 US cents per pound in August 2026. This was effectively unchanged from July 2026, when it averaged 287.26 US cents per pound.

The month followed an inverted V-shaped pattern. Prices softened early, then rallied from August 17 to 25. A sharp correction on August 26 and 27 brought the indicator back to its opening level.

The mid-month rally was driven by heightened expectations of a strong El Niño event. These concerns were compounded by historically low certified Arabica stocks. Prices eased toward the end of the month as favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of a substantial surplus reduced the risk premium.

Price Movements and Market Volatility

Colombian Milds and Other Milds recorded modest gains. Colombian Milds rose 1.1% to average 387.46 US cents/lb. Other Milds increased 0.7% to 361.31 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals edged up 0.5% to 322.24 US cents/lb.

In contrast, Robustas declined 2.2% to 180.63 US cents/lb. On the futures markets, London ICE Robusta prices fell 3.0% to 167.63 US cents/lb. New York ICE Arabica prices expanded 0.9% to 313.20 US cents/lb.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets expanded 5.8% to 145.56 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential widened 5.7% to 26.15 US cents/lb.

Volatility declined across most indicators. The intra-day volatility of the I-CIP stood at 13.7% in August, a 1.3 percentage point decrease from July. Colombian Milds volatility fell to 14.6%, while Other Milds dropped to 15.7%.

Brazilian Naturals volatility decreased 1.6 percentage points to 16.3%. Robusta volatility remained stable at 11.0%. At the New York and London futures markets, volatilities were 19.9% and 13.2%, respectively.

Diverging Certified Stocks

Certified stocks diverged sharply between the two futures markets. London certified Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags. This was their highest level in nine months.

In contrast, US certified Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags. This was the lowest level since 1999. It is approximately 68% below the level held a year earlier.

Several factors drove this divergence. El Niño risks raised concerns about future Arabica supplies. At the same time, disruption in Colombia and slower harvesting in Brazil limited near-term availability. A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck western Colombia on August 10, halting operations at the Pacific port of Buenaventura.

Brazil’s harvest also lagged behind its historical pace. Safras & Mercado reported that the 2026/27 harvest was 90% complete as of August 12, against 97% a year earlier and a five-year average of 94%.

Exports by Coffee Group

Global green bean exports totaled 10.76 million bags in July 2026. This was a 6.3% increase from 10.12 million bags in July 2025. It marked the fourth month of positive year-on-year growth in the first 10 months of 2025/26.

The increase was driven entirely by Robustas. Robusta green bean exports surged 32.0% to 4.98 million bags. Vietnam led the increase with a 87.4% jump to 2.4 million bags. Brazil also contributed, with its Robusta exports up 83.7% to 0.86 million bags.

In contrast, all Arabica groups recorded declines. Colombian Milds exports fell 11.1% to 1.04 million bags. Brazilian Naturals decreased 10.0% to 2.46 million bags. Other Milds fell 6.7% to 2.27 million bags.

Total Arabica exports decreased to 5.78 million bags in July 2026. This was down 8.9% from 6.35 million bags in July 2025. As a result, the Arabica share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 59.7% from 63.6% a year earlier.

Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60 kg bags)

Coffee Group July 2025 July 2026 Change
Robustas 3.77 4.98 +32.0%
Colombian Milds 1.17 1.04 -11.1%
Other Milds 2.44 2.27 -6.7%
Brazilian Naturals 2.74 2.46 -10.0%

Exports by Region

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 3.3% to 12.23 million bags in July 2026. Two of the four regions recorded increases. Asia & Oceania and South America posted gains, while Africa and the Caribbean, Mexico & Central America recorded declines.

Asia & Oceania led the upturn with a 17.6% increase to 4.38 million bags. Vietnam was the main driver, with exports up 43.7% to 2.83 million bags. The region’s year-to-date exports rose to 43.59 million bags.

South America’s exports increased 3.1% to 4.57 million bags. This was the third consecutive month of positive growth. Brazil drove the increase with a 10.9% rise to 3.06 million bags. However, Colombia partly offset this with a 14.7% decline to 1.01 million bags.

Africa’s exports decreased 6.7% to 1.90 million bags. Ethiopia and Uganda drove the decline, with combined exports falling 15.9% to an estimated 1.52 million bags. Uganda’s decline follows a record performance in 2024/25 and may reflect normalization from an exceptionally high benchmark.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America decreased 15.9% to 1.39 million bags. This was the third consecutive month of negative growth, driven mainly by Mexico and Nicaragua.

Soluble coffee exports decreased 16.7% to 1.4 million bags in July 2026. Roasted bean exports rose 70.6% to 0.07 million bags.

Global Supply and Demand Outlook

The ICO published updated supply and demand statistics on September 10, 2026. World coffee production increased 2.5% to 175.9 million bags in 2024/25. For 2025/26, production is estimated to rise 4.4% to 183.6 million bags.

Arabica production is projected to increase 2.8% to 104.4 million bags in 2025/26. This reflects the higher-yielding phase of the biennial cycle in South America. Robusta output is estimated to jump 6.5% to 79.2 million bags.

South America remains the world’s largest producer, with an estimated output of 84.1 million bags. This represents 45.8% of global production. Asia & Oceania follows with 29.7%, then Africa with 13.6% and the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico with 10.8%.

World coffee consumption increased 4.3% to 182.2 million bags in 2024/25. Growth was mainly driven by North America and Europe. In 2025/26, consumption is estimated to decline 0.8%, partly reflecting normalization after unusually strong growth.

Europe remained the largest consuming region, accounting for 30.1% of global consumption in 2024/25. South America is estimated to overtake North America as the third-largest consuming region in 2025/26.

Following four consecutive years of deficit from 2021/22 to 2024/25, the global coffee market is projected to record a surplus of 3.0 million bags in 2025/26.

Table 2: World Supply, Demand and Balance (million 60 kg bags)

Item 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26
Arabica Production 101.1 101.6 104.4
Robusta Production 70.5 74.4 79.2
Total Production 171.6 175.9 183.6
Consumption 174.6 182.2 180.6
Balance -3.0 -6.3 +3.0

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in August 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 287.29 US cents/lb in August 2026, effectively unchanged from July 2026 (287.26 US cents/lb).

What caused the mid-month price rally and subsequent correction?

A rally from August 17 to 25 was driven by El Niño fears and tight Arabica supplies. It was reversed by favorable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of a substantial surplus.

Why did certified coffee stocks diverge?

US Arabica stocks fell to 0.24 million bags (lowest since 1999) due to El Niño risks and supply disruptions. London Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags.

How did coffee exports perform in July 2026?

Global green bean exports rose 6.3% to 10.76 million bags. Robusta exports surged 32%, while all Arabica groups declined.

What is the global supply and demand outlook?

World production is estimated at 183.6 million bags in 2025/26 (+4.4%), with consumption at 180.6 million bags (-0.8%). This results in a surplus of 3.0 million bags.

What was the key development in certified stocks?

US certified Arabica stocks fell to their lowest level since 1999 at 0.24 million bags, while London Robusta stocks reached a nine-month high of 0.83 million bags.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, August 2026 | Date: September 2026

Coffee Prices Record Largest Monthly Surge Since 2021

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, July 2026
Date: August 2026According to recent reports, coffee prices experienced the largest monthly surge in 2026.

Coffee Prices Record Largest Monthly Surge Since 2021

Executive Summary

  • The ICO composite price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.
  • Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta: Colombian Milds +18.1%, Brazilian Naturals +17.9%, Robustas +9.1%.
  • Record daily gains of 8.2% (July 6) and 9.3% (July 9) marked the largest increases in 21 years.
  • El Niño probability reached 97% through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event.
  • Brazil’s harvest was only 64% complete by July 15, below the 5‑year average of 70%, due to wet conditions.
  • US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024.
  • London Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags, widening the price gap between the two varieties.

Global coffee prices recorded their largest monthly increase since 2021 in July 2026. The ICO Composite Indicator Price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents per pound.

Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta. Colombian Milds increased 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb. Other Milds increased 16.5% to 358.65 US cents/lb. Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.

The price rally was driven by several factors. Weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tightening Arabica supplies all played a role.

On July 6, the composite price rose 8.2% in a single day. On July 9, it rose another 9.3%. These were the largest daily increases observed in 21 years.

El Niño fears intensified significantly. On July 9, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97% probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027. There was also an 81% probability of a very strong event during October-December 2026.

This outlook pointed to increased risks of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies. These could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and 2027.

Weather factors were a key driver. Unusually wet conditions in parts of Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying operations. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s harvest was only 64% complete as of July 15. This compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%.

Wet conditions also caused uneven maturation. Multiple flowering cycles led to cherries at different stages of ripeness. This required more selective picking and sorting, making harvesting slower and more costly.

US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags in July. This was their lowest level since January 2024. The decline signaled significantly tighter immediately deliverable supplies of Arabica.

In contrast, London certified Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags. This divergence widened the price gap between Arabica and Robusta and increased the price differentials.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 0.98 million bags on July 31. This signaled limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions.

Table 1: Key Price Movements (US cents/lb)

Indicator June 2026 July 2026 Change
ICO Composite 248.90 287.26 +15.4%
Colombian Milds 324.60 383.39 +18.1%
Brazilian Naturals 272.01 320.69 +17.9%
Robustas 169.39 184.78 +9.1%

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did coffee prices rise in July 2026?

The ICO composite price surged 15.4% to 287.26 US cents/lb, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

What caused the price surge?

El Niño fears (97% probability), wet weather in Brazil slowing the harvest, and falling Arabica stocks were the main drivers.

How did Arabica and Robusta prices perform differently?

Arabica prices rose faster (+18.1% for Colombian Milds) while Robusta rose 9.1%, widening the price gap.

What happened to certified coffee stocks?

US Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags (lowest since Jan 2024), while London Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags.

What is the El Niño outlook?

There is a 97% probability of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027, with an 81% chance of a very strong event in late 2026.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, July 2026 | Date: August 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026: Prices Surge 15.4% on Supply Fears

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, July 2026
Date: August 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report July 2026: Prices Surge 15.4% on Supply Fears

Executive Summary

  • The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, up 15.4% from June, with Arabica prices outpacing Robusta.
  • Record daily gains of 8.2% on July 6 and 9.3% on July 9 marked the largest increases in 21 years.
  • Colombian Milds rose 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb; Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb; Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.
  • US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024, tightening immediately deliverable supplies.
  • ICE margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures surged from $5,685 to over $21,000 in early July, reducing liquidity and amplifying volatility.
  • El Niño probability reached 97% through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event, heightening supply concerns.
  • Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest was only 64% complete by July 15, below the 5‑year average of 70%, due to wet conditions.
  • Global green bean exports rose 0.8% to 10.48 million bags in June, driven by Brazilian Naturals (+7.1%).

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents per pound in July 2026. This was a 15.4% increase from June 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

Arabica prices rose faster than Robusta prices. The Colombian Milds increased 18.1% to 383.39 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 US cents/lb. The Other Milds increased 16.5% to 358.65 US cents/lb. Robustas rose 9.1% to 184.78 US cents/lb.

The widening price gap was reflected in higher differentials. The arbitrage between New York and London futures markets expanded by 36.4% to 137.61 US cents/lb.

Volatility also rose sharply. On July 6, the I-CIP rose 8.2% in a single day. On July 9, it rose another 9.3%. Together, these were the largest daily increases observed in 21 years.

Several factors contributed to the price surge. Weather-related concerns in Brazil, a strengthening El Niño outlook, and tightening Arabica supplies all played a role. US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest level since January 2024.

ICE Margin Requirements and Market Liquidity

In response to heightened market risk, ICE Futures U.S. increased margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures multiple times in early July. The margin rate for the September 2026 contract rose from $5,685 before July to $14,715 on July 6, and then to $21,116 on July 9.

It was subsequently reduced to $14,606 on July 24. However, it remained well above its pre-July level. These adjustments affected financing requirements, market participation, and liquidity.

Higher margins require participants to provide more collateral. This reduces leverage and may discourage highly leveraged positions. It also strengthens protection against losses if a participant defaults.

However, it may also force positions to be closed. This reduces liquidity and can temporarily amplify price movements. The sharp price increases on July 6 and 9 may have been amplified by these liquidity effects.

Systematic and momentum-driven buying also played a role. Short covering, fueled by concerns over declining ICE-certified stocks, reinforced the upward price pressure. Thin liquidity made the market more susceptible to sharp movements.

Weather and El Niño Concerns

Weather factors were a key driver of July’s price movements. Unusually wet conditions in parts of Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying operations. This raised concerns about coffee quality.

On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was only 64% complete as of July 15. This compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%.

Wet conditions also caused uneven maturation. Multiple flowering cycles led to cherries at different stages of ripeness. This required more selective picking and sorting, making harvesting slower and more costly.

Meanwhile, the El Niño outlook strengthened significantly. On July 9, the US Climate Prediction Center reported a 97% probability that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027.

There was also an 81% probability of a very strong event during October-December 2026. This could rank among the most intense El Niño events recorded since 1950.

This outlook pointed to increased risks of regional rainfall and temperature anomalies. These could affect coffee production in Asia and South America in late 2026 and 2027.

Certified Stocks and Supply Tightness

London certified Robusta stocks rose 2.5% to 0.69 million bags in July. In contrast, US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags. This was their lowest level since January 2024.

This divergence indicated significantly tighter immediately deliverable supplies of Arabica. This supported higher Arabica prices relative to Robusta. It also contributed to the widening differentials between the two markets.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 0.98 million bags on July 31. This decline signaled limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions. It amplified the market’s response to weather and El Niño concerns.

Table 1: ICO Indicator Prices and Futures (US cents/lb)

Indicator June 2026 July 2026 Change
ICO Composite 248.90 287.26 +15.4%
Colombian Milds 324.60 383.39 +18.1%
Other Milds 307.83 358.65 +16.5%
Brazilian Naturals 272.01 320.69 +17.9%
Robustas 169.39 184.78 +9.1%
New York ICE (Arabica) 256.75 310.34 +20.9%
London ICE (Robusta) 155.90 172.73 +10.8%

Green Bean Exports: Mixed Performance by Group

Global green bean exports totaled 10.48 million bags in June 2026. This was a 0.8% increase compared to 10.4 million bags in June 2025.

Brazilian Naturals exports rose 7.1% to 2.76 million bags. This was the first month of positive growth after 15 consecutive months of decline. The increase was driven by Brazil, where exports rose from 1.82 million to 2.01 million bags.

Colombian Milds exports increased 1.2% to 1.09 million bags. This was the group’s first positive growth in the current coffee year. Kenya was the main driver, with exports rising 39.2% to 0.11 million bags.

Other Milds exports fell 1.3% to 2.66 million bags. Nicaragua and Mexico were the main drivers of the decline, with combined exports falling 42.9% to 0.34 million bags.

Robusta exports fell 2.1% to 3.97 million bags. This was only the second instance of negative growth in the first nine months of the coffee year. Indonesia and Uganda drove the decline, with combined exports falling 36.1% to 0.98 million bags.

Total Arabica exports rose 2.5% to 6.51 million bags. However, the Arabicas’ share of cumulative green bean exports fell to 60.4% from 63.7% a year earlier.

Table 2: Green Bean Exports by Group (million 60‑kg bags)

Coffee Group June 2025 June 2026 Change
Robustas 4.05 3.97 -2.1%
Colombian Milds 1.08 1.09 +1.2%
Other Milds 2.70 2.66 -1.3%
Brazilian Naturals 2.57 2.76 +7.1%

Exports by Region: South America Leads

Global exports of all forms of coffee rose 0.3% to 11.88 million bags in June 2026. Exports declined in three of the four regions. South America recorded the only increase.

South America’s exports rose 17.3% to 4.8 million bags. Brazil led the increase, with exports up 17.4% to 3.09 million bags. Peru also contributed, with exports rising 50% to 0.49 million bags.

Asia & Oceania exports fell 2.4% to 3.63 million bags. Indonesia led the decline, with exports falling 33.3% to 0.58 million bags. However, India and Vietnam partly offset this with increases of 14.6% and 6.1% respectively.

Africa’s exports fell 13.5% to 1.79 million bags. Uganda was the main driver, with exports falling 30.6% to an estimated 0.7 million bags.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America fell 15.3% to 1.66 million bags. Mexico and Nicaragua drove the decline, with combined exports falling 44% to 0.41 million bags.

Soluble coffee exports fell 1.3% to 1.35 million bags. Roasted bean exports fell 32.3% to 0.05 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in July 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, a 15.4% increase from June 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2021.

What caused the record daily price gains in July?

On July 6 and 9, the I-CIP rose 8.2% and 9.3% respectively, marking the largest daily increases in 21 years. This was driven by El Niño fears, falling stocks, wet weather in Brazil, and ICE margin hikes affecting liquidity.

How did ICE margin requirements affect the market?

ICE raised margin requirements for Coffee “C” futures from $5,685 to over $21,000 in early July. This reduced liquidity, forced position closures, and amplified price volatility.

What happened to certified coffee stocks in July?

US certified Arabica stocks fell 30% to 0.29 million bags, the lowest since January 2024. London Robusta stocks rose slightly to 0.69 million bags. The divergence tightened Arabica supplies.

What is the El Niño outlook?

There is a 97% probability of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027, with 81% chance of a very strong event during October-December 2026, potentially one of the most intense on record.

How is Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest progressing?

As of July 15, the harvest was only 64% complete, compared to 77% a year earlier and a five-year average of 70%, due to wet conditions that slowed harvesting and drying.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, July 2026 | Date: August 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report June 2026: Prices Rebound on El Niño Fears

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, June 2026
Date: July 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report June 2026: Prices Rebound on El Niño Fears

Executive Summary

  • The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I‑CIP) averaged 248.90 US cents/lb in June 2026, down 2.8% from May. However, prices rebounded sharply by 17.4% from a two-year low on June 9 to a two-month high at month-end.
  • Super El Niño fears (67% confidence) and excessive rainfall in Brazil (1,956% above average in Minas Gerais) slowed the harvest and raised quality concerns, reversing the downward trend.
  • Robusta prices rose 1.7% to 169.39 US cents/lb, while Brazilian Naturals fell 7.4% to 272.01 US cents/lb.
  • US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags, the lowest since February 2024. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags.
  • Global green bean exports fell 4.1% to 10.8 million bags in May 2026, driven by a 17.2% drop in Brazilian Naturals. Robusta exports rose 4.8%.
  • The Strait of Hormuz closure added 10-14 days to shipping routes, raising fuel costs 68% and fertilizer prices 25%.
  • The USDA forecast a record Brazilian 2026/27 crop at 71.9 million bags (+14%), while Rabobank raised its global Arabica surplus estimate by 35.7%.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 248.90 US cents per pound in June 2026. This was a 2.8% decrease from May 2026.

Prices continued their downward trend in early June. They fell to 231.96 US cents/lb on June 9, the lowest level in nearly two years. However, prices then rebounded sharply by 17.4%.

They reached a two-month high of 272.39 US cents/lb at the end of the month. Weather emerged as the principal driver of coffee price dynamics in June.

The Colombian Milds and Robustas recorded modest gains. The Colombian Milds rose 0.4% to 324.60 US cents/lb. Robustas increased 1.7% to 169.39 US cents/lb.

In contrast, the Other Milds declined 2.4% to 307.83 US cents/lb. The Brazilian Naturals fell 7.4% to 272.01 US cents/lb. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags.

US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags. This was the lowest level since February 2024. The market became increasingly nervous as inventories tightened.

Super El Niño Fears Drive Rebound

Market sentiment shifted abruptly in June. Growing confidence that El Niño would develop into a Super El Niño halted the downward price movement on June 9.

The Japan Meteorological Agency and NOAA released reports on June 10 and 11. They indicated 67% confidence in a Super El Niño event, the highest confidence level on record.

These forecasts raised concerns about the potential impact on the 2026/27 coffee harvest. The effects vary across regions and seasons.

Reduced rainfall is expected in the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico. Raised temperatures and reduced rainfall are forecast for northern Brazil and parts of South America.

Increased rainfall is expected in southern Brazil and Bolivia. More erratic rainfall and flooding are forecast for East Africa. Drought conditions are expected in Southeast Asia.

On June 17 and 24, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was progressing slowly. The harvest reached 39% and 44% completion, respectively.

The delay was concentrated in Arabica areas. Excess rainfall disrupted harvesting and drying operations, particularly in Minas Gerais. The 44% completion figure on June 24 was below the 51% recorded a year earlier and the five-year average of 47%.

On June 29, Somar Meteorologia measured 31.3 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais. This was equivalent to 1,956% of the historical average for the period. The unusually high precipitation occurred during the normally dry season. It delayed harvesting and drying operations and raised concerns over bean quality.

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Add Supply Pressure

The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed from February 28. This forced Asia-Europe shipping routes to divert via the Cape of Good Hope. Transit times increased by 10 to 14 days.

Bunker fuel prices were up 68% from mid-to-late February. Container spot rates roughly doubled. Fertilizer prices increased 25%.

A gradual reopening occurred on June 22-23 following the U.S.-Iran agreement on June 17. This pushed Robusta prices to a one-week low. However, attacks on the Ever Lovely on June 25 and the Kiku on June 27 renewed geopolitical tensions within days. The associated premiums returned quickly.

Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 1.09 million bags on June 30. This was the lowest level since February 2024. The decline signaled tighter availability of deliverable stocks. The market was left with limited buffers against unforeseen supply disruptions.

Supply Fundamentals and Bearish Factors

On June 1, the USDA forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at a record level. The forecast was 14% above the previous season. Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global Arabica surplus estimate by 35.7%.

These forecasts reinforced previous positive reports. CONAB’s official second survey projected Brazil’s total crop at 66.7 million bags. Safras & Mercado projected a total crop increase of 13.4%.

In late May, the USDA revised its estimate of Vietnam’s 2025/26 output upwards to 31.7 million bags. It forecast production at 32.5 million bags for 2026/27. The dollar index stood at 101.6 during the week of June 22. This was close to a 15-month high, creating a headwind for coffee prices.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets contracted by 13.3% to 100.86 US cents/lb in June 2026. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.6%.

Exports: Arabica Declines, Robusta Gains

Global green bean exports totalled 10.8 million bags in May 2026. This was a 4.1% decline compared to 11.26 million bags in May 2025. All coffee groups recorded declines except Robustas.

Robusta exports were up 4.8% to 4.34 million bags. This was driven mainly by Brazil, where exports surged by 195.6% to 0.61 million bags. The sharp rise reflects differences in harvest timing between the current and previous Robusta harvests.

Colombian Milds exports fell by 1.7% to 0.98 million bags. This marked the seventh consecutive month of negative growth. Other Milds shipments fell by 2.8% to 2.75 million bags. This was the first negative growth observed in coffee year 2025/26.

Brazilian Naturals exports fell by 17.2% to 2.73 million bags. This marked the 15th consecutive month of negative growth. The declines were primarily driven by Brazil and Ethiopia.

Total Arabica exports decreased to 6.46 million bags in May 2026. This was a 9.3% drop from 7.12 million bags in May 2025. As a result, Arabica’s share of total green bean exports fell to 60.2% from 64.0% a year earlier.

Table 1: Green Bean Exports by Coffee Group (million 60‑kg bags)

Coffee Group May 2025 May 2026 Change
Robustas 4.14 4.34 +4.8%
Colombian Milds 0.99 0.98 -1.7%
Other Milds 2.82 2.75 -2.8%
Brazilian Naturals 3.30 2.73 -17.2%

Exports by Region: Mixed Performance

Global exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 3.2% to 12.38 million bags in May 2026. The dynamics across the four regions were mixed.

Exports from Asia & Oceania were up 0.4% to 4.32 million bags. India led the growth with exports increasing 33.7% to 0.74 million bags. However, this was largely offset by decreases in Indonesia and Vietnam.

Africa’s exports decreased by 24.1% to 1.63 million bags. The contraction was driven largely by Ethiopia and Uganda. Their combined exports fell to an estimated 1.31 million bags from 1.77 million bags in May 2025.

South America’s exports increased by 4.3% to 4.29 million bags. This was the first monthly increase in 18 months. The upturn was driven mainly by Brazil, whose exports were up 4.3%.

The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America decreased by 3.8% to 2.14 million bags. This was the first negative growth in coffee year 2025/26, driven mainly by Nicaragua.

Soluble coffee exports increased by 3.6% to 1.51 million bags. Vietnam, Brazil, and India were the largest exporters. Roasted bean exports were up 10.8% to 0.07 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the ICO composite price in June 2026?

The I-CIP averaged 248.90 US cents/lb in June 2026, a 2.8% decrease from May. However, prices rebounded sharply from a two-year low on June 9 to a two-month high by month-end.

What caused the price rebound in June?

Super El Niño fears (67% confidence) and excessive rainfall in Brazil (1,956% above average in Minas Gerais) slowed the harvest and raised quality concerns, reversing the downward trend.

How did coffee stocks perform in June?

US certified Arabica stocks fell 13.3% to 0.41 million bags, the lowest since February 2024. London Robusta stocks rose 4.8% to 0.68 million bags. Combined ICE-certified stocks fell to 1.09 million bags.

How did the Strait of Hormuz closure affect coffee prices?

The closure added 10-14 days to shipping routes, raising bunker fuel costs 68%, container spot rates by about 100%, and fertilizer prices 25%.

What were the export trends in May 2026?

Global green bean exports fell 4.1% to 10.8 million bags. Robusta exports rose 4.8%, while Brazilian Naturals fell 17.2%. Total Arabica exports were down 9.3%.

What was Brazil’s harvest outlook in June?

The USDA forecast a record 2026/27 Brazilian crop at 71.9 million bags (+14%). However, excessive rainfall in June slowed harvesting, with only 44% completed by June 24, below the five-year average of 47%.

Author: Qahwa World – London | Source: International Coffee Organization – Coffee Market Report, June 2026 | Date: July 2026

International Coffee Organization Releases Coffee Market Report for May 2026

Posted on by Qahwa World

Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – May 2026 Report |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 13, 2026

International Coffee Organization Releases Coffee Market Report for May 2026

Key Takeaways:

  • The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I‑CIP) averaged 256.05 US cents/lb in May 2026, down 3.8% from April.
  • Brazilian Naturals fell 6.4% to 293.73 US cents/lb, while Robustas rose 1.1% to 166.51 US cents/lb.
  • ICE‑certified Arabica stocks fell 13.5% to 0.48 million bags – a multi‑month low.
  • CONAB raised its Brazil 2026/27 production forecast to a record 66.7 million bags, with Arabica up 28% y/y.
  • Global green bean exports declined 1.9% in April 2026 to 10.51 million bags, while Robusta exports rose 11.2%.
  • Vietnam’s April 2026 exports jumped 12.1% to 3.41 million bags – the country’s largest April volume on record.
  • The New York–London futures arbitrage narrowed 13.1% to 116.39 US cents/lb, reflecting improved Brazil arabica prospects.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) published its monthly coffee market report for May 2026, showing a continued downward drift in prices as expectations of ample supply strengthened. The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I‑CIP) averaged 256.05 US cents/lb in May 2026, a 3.8% decrease from April 2026. The market continued to react to an improved supply outlook, reinforced by CONAB’s reaffirmation of a record outlook for Brazil’s production in crop year 2026/27.

Despite the decline, prices remain relatively elevated by historical standards. The drop reflects growing market expectations of a possible global surplus in coffee year 2026/27, combined with harvest pressure from Brazil and persistent backwardation in financial markets.

Group Indicator Performance: Arabicas Decline, Robustas Edge Up

Colombian Milds averaged 323.45 US cents/lb in May 2026, down 3.3% from April. Other Milds fell 4.8% to 315.42 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals dropped 6.4% to 293.73 US cents/lb – the steepest decline among the groups. In contrast, Robustas rose 1.1% to 166.51 US cents/lb.

On the futures markets, New York arabica futures fell 5.8% to 268.18 US cents/lb, while London robusta futures gained 0.8% to 151.79 US cents/lb. The arbitrage between the two futures markets contracted by 13.1% to 116.39 US cents/lb, highlighting in particular the improving prospects for arabica production in Brazil.

Group May 2026 (US cents/lb) Change vs April
ICO Composite 256.05 -3.8%
Colombian Milds 323.45 -3.3%
Other Milds 315.42 -4.8%
Brazilian Naturals 293.73 -6.4%
Robustas 166.51 +1.1%

Certified Stocks at Multi‑Month Lows

ICE‑certified robusta stocks fell 0.1% from April to May 2026, closing the month at 0.64 million bags. US‑certified arabica stocks also declined, dropping 13.5% to 0.48 million bags – the lowest level in months. The continued drawdown in certified stocks suggests persistent market uncertainty, as nearby contract premiums are not yet high enough to incentivize deliveries into certified warehouses.

CONAB Forecast: Record Brazil 2026/27 Crop

In mid‑May, Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) released its second crop survey. It raised the total 2026/27 production forecast by about 0.5 million bags to a record 66.7 million bags. Arabica production was increased by 1.67 million bags to 45.8 million bags (+28% y/y). Robusta production was cut by about 1.2 million bags to 20.9 million bags (still a +0.8% y/y increase). CONAB also reported a 3.9% increase in coffee area to 2.34 million hectares, with yields rising to 34.4 bags per hectare. However, CONAB noted that carry‑over stocks remain low and highlighted continued growth in global demand, which tempered some of the market’s bearish sentiment.

Green Bean Exports: Overall Decline, Robusta Growth

Total global green bean exports reached 10.51 million bags in April 2026, down 1.9% from 10.71 million bags in April 2025. All coffee groups recorded declines except Robustas. Details:

  • Colombian Milds: down 14.0% to 0.78 million bags.
  • Other Milds: down 1.1% to 2.31 million bags.
  • Brazilian Naturals: down 14.8% to 2.91 million bags.
  • Robustas: up 11.2% to 4.50 million bags.

As a result, the Arabicas’ share of total green bean exports for the first seven months of coffee year 2025/26 fell to 60.4%, down from 64.2% in the same period a year earlier.

Group April 2026 (million bags) Change vs April 2025
Colombian Milds 0.78 -14.0%
Other Milds 2.31 -1.1%
Brazilian Naturals 2.91 -14.8%
Robustas 4.50 +11.2%

Regional Performance: Asia & Oceania Lead Growth

Total exports of all forms of coffee (green, soluble, roasted) fell 0.9% to 12.05 million bags in April 2026 compared with 12.17 million bags in April 2025. Regional dynamics were mixed:

  • Asia & Oceania: Up 7.3% to 4.64 million bags, led by Vietnam. Vietnamese exports jumped 12.1% to 3.41 million bags – the country’s largest April export volume on record.
  • Africa: Down 22.1% to 1.54 million bags, driven by sharp declines in Ethiopia and Uganda.
  • South America: Down 1.2% to 3.99 million bags, with Colombia recording its fifth consecutive monthly decline.
  • Caribbean, Mexico & Central America: Up 3.3% to 1.88 million bags, led by Honduras (+23.0%).

Price Volatility and El Niño Risks

The intra‑day volatility of the I‑CIP averaged 8.8% in May 2026, down 0.2 percentage points from April. Volatility for Brazilian Naturals and Robustas also declined, while Colombian Milds volatility increased slightly. On the futures markets, New York arabica volatility stood at 10.2%, and London robusta volatility at 10.1%.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño”. Such a pattern could delay Brazil’s September‑October 2026 flowering rains, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop. However, the impact of El Niño in Brazil is complex – it can be positive or negative depending on region, intensity, and timing.

Frequently Asked Questions About the ICO May 2026 Coffee Market Report

Q: What is the ICO Composite Indicator Price?

A: It is a weighted average of the four ICO group indicator prices (Colombian Milds, Other Milds, Brazilian Naturals, and Robustas).

Q: Why did arabica prices fall while robusta prices rose in May 2026?

A: Arabica fell due to record Brazil crop expectations, while robusta demand remained strong amid Red Sea shipping disruptions.

Q: What do falling certified stocks indicate?

A: They suggest that nearby contract premiums are not high enough to encourage deliveries into warehouses, reflecting persistent market uncertainty despite surplus expectations.

Q: How could El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: A “Super El Niño” could delay flowering rains in Brazil and damage next year’s crop, which would support higher prices. But the effect varies by region.

Q: What is the expected global coffee surplus for 2026/27?

A: CONAB’s record Brazil crop points to a significant surplus, but low carry‑over stocks and strong demand may limit its size.

The global coffee market remains caught between large surplus expectations on one hand, and low inventories, El Niño risks, and supply chain disruptions on the other. The ICO’s May 2026 report confirms that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the world’s coffee balance.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on the International Coffee Organization (ICO) market report for May 2026 (CMR-0526).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 13, 2026

ICO Coffee Market Report April 2026: Global prices fall 2.7% as supply outlook outweighs Strait of Hormuz disruption

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – London

Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, April 2026
Report number: N/A (monthly market report)
Date: May 2026

ICO Composite Indicator Price averages 266.24 US cents/lb; Robusta drops 6.9% (fifth consecutive monthly decline); certified stocks remain at historically low levels.

LONDON, May 2026 — The International Coffee Organization (ICO) Composite Indicator Price (I‑CIP) averaged 266.24 US cents per pound in April 2026, a 2.7 percent decrease from March 2026. The market balanced two opposing forces: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since 4 March, which pushed crude oil prices up by 55.8 percent and shipping freight costs by 43.6 percent between 27 February and 30 April, against a continued improvement in the global supply outlook. On balance, the supply‑side factor outweighed the geopolitical disruption, erasing most of March’s gains.

All coffee groups recorded losses in April, with Robusta suffering the steepest decline. The ICO report highlights that since the end of coffee year 2024/25, Robusta prices have dropped 21.9 percent, while the I‑CIP fell 18.0 percent and the three Arabica groups declined by an average of 16.9 percent. The sharper downturn in Robusta is attributed to improved supply availability — Robusta green bean exports rose 16.7 percent in the first half of 2025/26 — and a 4.5 percentage point increase in its share of total green exports.

Key takeaway: The market has largely priced in the war, while fundamentals (supply and demand) are now driving prices downward. The I‑CIP dropped 2.7% in April, compared to a 2.3% increase in March when geopolitical fears dominated.

Price performance by group and futures markets

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds both contracted by 0.9 percent in April, averaging 334.56 and 331.32 US cents/lb respectively. Brazilian Naturals fell 2.1 percent to 313.76 US cents/lb. Robusta declined 6.9 percent to 164.64 US cents/lb. At the futures level, the London ICE Robusta market dropped 7.0 percent to 150.65 US cents/lb, while New York ICE Arabica fell 1.9 percent to 284.63 US cents/lb.

IndicatorMarch 2026April 2026ChangeICO Composite (US cents/lb)273.70266.29-2.7%Colombian Milds337.45334.52-0.9%Other Milds334.34331.52-0.8%Brazilian Naturals320.51314.29-1.9%Robustas176.77164.17-7.1%New York ICE (Arabica)290.18284.75-1.9%London ICE (Robusta)161.91150.19-7.2%

Strait of Hormuz blockage: a lasting impact on input costs

Since 4 March 2026, shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz have remained disrupted. Around one‑fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through this corridor. Between 27 February and 30 April, Brent crude rose from US$73.23/bbl to US$114.09/bbl, an increase of 55.8 percent. The Containerized Freight Index climbed from 1,331.1 to 1,911.4 points, a 43.6 percent rise. Fertilizer urea price jumped 47 percent from US$465/t to US$682/t over the same two‑month period. The Gulf region is a major fertilizer producer; Qatar Fertiliser Company alone accounts for about 14 percent of global urea production. The ICO notes that the increase in urea prices will hit high‑input coffee origins most severely, especially producers who have not secured fertilizers in advance for the main nitrogen application period supporting flowering for the next harvest.

Global supply outlook improves – market forecasts point to larger crops

Throughout March and April, several market players released optimistic projections. On 18 March, Scaufina projected Brazil’s 2026/27 crop to be up 15.5 percent year‑on‑year. On 19 March, Marex Group projected a 14.3 percent increase. On 2 April, StoneX projected global 2026 production at 182.5 million bags, an increase of 9.6 percent over the previous year, and forecast world stocks to rise to 48.2 million bags from 38.3 million in 2025.

These fundamentals gained the upper hand in April, as the market appeared to have already factored in the war. The I‑CIP’s 2.7 percent decline reversed the 2.3 percent increase seen in March, when geopolitical shocks dominated.

Price differentials and arbitrage

The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential widened slightly from 3.12 to 3.34 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential grew 22.7 percent to 20.8 US cents/lb. The arbitrage between New York and London futures markets increased 4.5 percent to 133.99 US cents/lb in April, the second consecutive monthly increase. The arbitrage ratio (New York/London) stood at 1.89, above the historical average of 1.75 (January 2018 to May 2025). The ratio has remained above the historic average for 11 of the past 12 months, indicating a return to more typical arbitrage levels.

Volatility declines across all indicators

Intra‑day volatility of the I‑CIP averaged 9.0 percent in April, down 0.8 percentage points from March. Colombian Milds volatility fell to 8.5 percent, Other Milds to 8.8 percent, Brazilian Naturals to 9.7 percent, and Robustas to 10.7 percent. New York futures volatility decreased to 10.0 percent, London to 11.0 percent.

Certified stocks remain at historic lows

London certified Robusta stocks fell 5.5 percent month‑on‑month to 0.65 million bags in April. US certified Arabica stocks dropped 10.1 percent to 0.55 million bags. Stock levels have stabilized in the last six months but remain at historically very low levels. From January 2010 to December 2021, average total ICE stocks were 4.87 million bags. Since the end of 2021, total certified stocks have stayed below 3.0 million bags. Calculated as months of EU and US consumption, current stocks represent just 0.22 months’ worth, compared to an average of 0.91 months between 2010 and 2021.

Green bean exports: mixed performance by group

Global green bean exports in March 2026 rose 0.8 percent to 11.7 million bags. Robusta exports surged 24.0 percent to a record 5.52 million bags, driven by Vietnam (up 30.3 percent to 3.67 million bags) and supported by Brazil and India. Colombian Milds exports fell 33.8 percent to 0.88 million bags, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, as Colombia’s exports dropped 37.4 percent due to falling local supply. Other Milds exports edged up 0.9 percent to 2.59 million bags, led by Honduras (+19.3%). Brazilian Naturals exports declined 16.8 percent to 2.71 million bags, marking the 13th consecutive month of negative growth, driven primarily by Brazil.

Total Arabica exports fell 13.6 percent to 6.18 million bags in March 2026. As a result, Arabica’s share of total green bean exports for the first six months of 2025/26 fell to 59.6 percent from 64.5 percent a year earlier.

Coffee group March 2025 (million bags) March 2026 (million bags) Change
Robustas 4.45 5.52 +24.0%
Colombian Milds 1.33 0.88 -33.8%
Other Milds 2.57 2.59 +0.9%
Brazilian Naturals 3.26 2.71 -16.8%

Total exports by region (all forms of coffee)

Global exports of all forms of coffee increased 1.6 percent to 13.59 million bags in March 2026. Asia & Oceania led growth with a 13.1 percent rise to 5.82 million bags, driven by Vietnam’s 25.1 percent increase to 4.3 million bags – the country’s largest‑ever March export volume and second‑highest monthly volume on record. This was partly offset by Indonesia, whose exports fell an estimated 47.6 percent to 0.45 million bags.

Africa’s exports fell 14.7 percent to 1.4 million bags, led by Ethiopia (down 29.7% to 0.44 million bags). South America’s exports declined 8.3 percent to 4.07 million bags, with Colombia down 28.5 percent to 0.9 million bags – the fourth consecutive monthly downturn. The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America rose 7.1 percent to 2.3 million bags, led by Honduras (+19.3%).

Exports by form: soluble coffee up 6.6%

Green beans accounted for 85.23 percent of total exports in the first half of 2025/26, soluble coffee 14.21 percent, and roasted coffee 0.56 percent. Soluble coffee exports rose 6.6 percent to 1.82 million bags in March 2026, with Vietnam (0.56 million bags), Brazil (0.4 million), and India (0.28 million) as the largest shippers. Roasted bean exports increased 21.0 percent to 0.07 million bags.

Global supply/demand balance

According to ICO data, 2023/24 world production reached 177.5 million bags, up 5.2 percent from the previous year. Arabica production rose 4.5 percent to 102.1 million bags, Robusta 6.2 percent to 75.4 million bags. Consumption in 2023/24 was 175.1 million bags, up 1.4 percent, resulting in a positive balance of 2.44 million bags – the first surplus after three consecutive deficits.

Frequently Asked Questions

  • What was the ICO Composite Indicator Price in April 2026?
The I‑CIP averaged 266.24 US cents per pound, a 2.7 percent decrease from March 2026.
  • How much have Robusta prices fallen since the end of coffee year 2024/25?
Robusta prices have dropped 21.9 percent since the end of coffee year 2024/25, while the I‑CIP fell 18.0 percent and the three Arabica groups declined by an average of 16.9 percent.
  • How did the Strait of Hormuz closure affect shipping and fertilizer costs?
The Containerized Freight Index rose 43.6 percent and urea prices jumped 47 percent between 27 February and 30 April 2026.
  • What are market analysts forecasting for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop?
Scaufina projected a 15.5 percent increase, and Marex Group projected a 14.3 percent increase year‑on‑year.
  • How much green Robusta coffee was exported in March 2026?
Robusta green bean exports reached 5.52 million bags, a 24.0 percent increase from March 2025, the largest ever monthly volume on record.
  • What is the current level of certified stocks compared to historical averages?
Current certified stocks represent just 0.22 months of EU and US consumption, compared to an average of 0.91 months between 2010 and 2021.
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, April 2026 (published May 2026). All figures and analysis are strictly based on the original report. No external data has been added.

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