Tag: Minas Gerais

Brazil Coffee Output to Reach Record 71.9M Bags

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report BR2026-0025
Date: June 1, 2026

Brazil Coffee Output to Reach Record 71.9M Bags

Executive Summary

  • Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags, a 14% increase over the previous season.
  • Arabica output is expected to surge 25% to 47.5 million bags, ending five years of low harvests.
  • Robusta (conilon) production is forecast at 24.4 million bags, a slight decline from 25 million bags due to cooler weather and excess rain in some regions.
  • Exports for 2026/27 are projected to jump 30% to 49 million bags, supported by the record crop.
  • However, low stocks and fears of an El Niño event are making exporters cautious and holding back deals.
  • Domestic consumption remains stable at 22.39 million bags, with a 0.5% annual increase.
  • The “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” management technique is helping farmers optimize yields and reduce costs.

Brazil is set to produce a record 71.9 million 60‑kg bags of coffee in the 2026/27 season. This is a 14% increase over the previous cycle. The outlook is especially bright for arabica coffee.

Optimal weather in major growing regions has driven the recovery. The record crop follows five years of low arabica production caused by adverse conditions.

Exports are expected to surge 30% to 49 million bags. However, exporters remain cautious. They are holding back on deals because of low stocks and uncertainties about a possible El Niño event.

El Niño could affect the end of the current harvest and the 2027/28 cycle. These factors are strongly influencing coffee prices in the Brazilian market.

Production Outlook

The positive biennial cycle is a key driver. Arabica trees naturally produce more in alternating years. This year is a high‑yield year.

Favorable weather conditions and rising global prices have also encouraged farmers to expand their coffee areas. Technology has enabled higher planting density per hectare.

As a result, total coffee production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags. This is a 14% increase from the 63 million bags estimated for 2025/26.

The National Supply Company (CONAB) projects a slightly lower figure of 66.7 million bags. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) projects 65.1 million bags.

Both official agencies use different methodologies. They have historically provided lower estimates than the USDA.

Arabica and Robusta Performance

Arabica production is forecast to reach 47.5 million bags. This is a 25% increase over the previous cycle. The growth is driven by the positive biennial cycle and expanded cultivated area.

Technological improvements in crop management also played a role. Milder temperatures before flowering supported good crop development.

In contrast, robusta (conilon) production is forecast at 24.4 million bags. This is a slight decline from the 25 million bags estimated for 2025/26.

Colder weather and periods of excessive rainfall reduced yields in some main producing regions. The strong growth of the 2025/26 harvest also made it difficult to sustain the same level of production.

Producers are increasingly worried about climate change. Many are adjusting their practices, seeking more shaded areas, and looking for resilient varieties.

Regional Performance

Minas Gerais remains Brazil’s largest coffee‑producing state. It is forecast to harvest 34.1 million bags in 2026/27, up from 26.7 million in 2025/26.

The increase is due to the positive biennial cycle and better rainfall distribution. Rainfall was especially good before flowering and through March.

Espírito Santo, the second‑largest producer, is forecast at 21.4 million bags. Arabica production there is expected at 4.4 million bags, while robusta accounts for 17 million bags.

São Paulo, which grows only arabica, saw growth of more than 15% over the previous cycle, despite varied weather conditions.

Bahia has now become the second‑largest robusta producer, surpassing Rondônia. Its growth comes from advanced technology and high‑performance irrigated areas.

Rondônia is expected to see a 19% increase in robusta production. Favorable weather and the renewal of crops with higher‑yielding clonal plants are the main reasons.

Table 1: Brazilian Coffee Production by State (million 60‑kg bags)

State 2025/26 2026/27 Change
Minas Gerais 26.7 34.1 +27.7%
Espírito Santo 20.9 21.4 +2.4%
São Paulo 4.8 5.5 +14.6%
Bahia 4.7 5.2 +10.6%
Rondônia 2.3 2.8 +21.7%

Prices and Production Costs

Arabica prices rose sharply at the end of 2025 due to limited supply. However, prices started to decrease with the forecast of a larger harvest.

In April 2026, arabica coffee averaged BRL 1,811.87 (USD 360.03) per 60‑kg bag. This was a 5% drop from March and a 28% drop from April 2024.

Robusta prices fell even more. In April 2026, robusta traded at BRL 917.05 (USD 182.26). That was a 10% monthly drop and a 46% drop from April 2025.

Fears of an El Niño event have dampened sales activity. Many producers who were liquidating their remaining stocks are now holding back.

Production costs remain high. Fertilizer prices have risen, and freight costs have increased due to higher diesel prices. Diesel climbed about 24% in March 2026.

To cope, many farmers are adopting the “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” technique. This method divides farms into two plots and alternates skeleton pruning.

As a result, farmers focus only on the plot in its high‑yield phase. The system also increases organic matter and reduces fertilizer needs.

Domestic Consumption and Exports

Brazil’s domestic coffee consumption is forecast at 22.39 million bags for 2026/27. This is a slight 0.5% increase over the previous year.

Consumption declined by more than 2% in 2025 due to high prices. However, it recovered in early 2026 as supermarket prices dropped.

In the first four months of 2026, consumption rose 2% compared to the same period in 2025. The average Brazilian drinks about 3.8 cups of coffee per day.

Exports for 2026/27 are forecast to jump 30% to 49 million bags. This is based on the record harvest. However, low stocks have prevented even higher volumes.

Between January and April 2026, Brazil exported 11.5 million bags, a 24% decrease from the same period in 2025. April exports increased 1.2%, signaling a gradual recovery.

Germany remains the top buyer of Brazilian coffee, followed by the United States, Italy, Japan, and Belgium. The United States holds over 30% of the market share for Brazilian coffee imports.

Specialty coffees accounted for almost 18% of total exports in early 2026, though that volume was 36% lower than the same period in 2025.

Policy and Minimum Prices

The government has allocated BRL 7.37 billion for the 2026/27 Coffee Economy Defense Fund (FUNCAFE). The fund supports crop management, marketing financing, and working capital.

Minimum guaranteed prices for the 2026/27 harvest have been increased. Arabica now has a minimum price of BRL 792.53 per 60‑kg bag, a 20% rise from the previous season.

Robusta’s minimum price was set at BRL 556.97 per bag, a 12% increase. These prices are valid from April 2026 through March 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will Brazil produce in 2026/27?

Production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags, a 14% increase over the previous season.

Why is arabica production expected to surge?

The positive biennial cycle, expanded planted area, technological advances, and favorable weather are the main drivers.

Which Brazilian state produces the most coffee?

Minas Gerais is the largest producer, forecast at 34.1 million bags in 2026/27.

How will El Niño affect Brazilian coffee?

There is a 60% chance of El Niño between May and July 2026. It could negatively impact the 2027/28 harvest through higher temperatures and altered rainfall.

What is the “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” technique?

It is a management method that divides a farm into two plots and alternates skeleton pruning, allowing farmers to focus on high‑yield areas and reduce costs.

What are the main export destinations for Brazilian coffee?

Germany, the United States, Italy, Japan, and Belgium are the top buyers.

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília | Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report BR2026-0025 | Date: June 1, 2026

Brazil Coffee Production to Hit Record 66.7 Million Bags in 2026

Posted on by Qahwa World

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília
Source: National Supply Company of Brazil (Conab), Cecafé, MDIC
Date: May 26, 2026This update covers expectations for a Brazil coffee production 2026 record, based on the latest reports and forecasts.

Brazil Coffee Output to Hit Record 66.7 Million Bags in 2026

Executive Summary

  • Brazil’s coffee production for the 2026 harvest is forecast at 66.7 million 60 kg bags, an 18% increase over 2025 and a new record, surpassing the 2020 harvest of 63.08 million bags.
  • Arabica production is expected to reach 45.8 million bags (+28%), while Robusta (Conilon) is forecast at 20.9 million bags (+0.8%).
  • Total planted area rises 3.9% to 2.34 million hectares, with national average productivity projected at 34.4 bags per hectare (+13%).
  • Minas Gerais, the largest producer, is forecast at 33.4 million bags (+29.8%). Espírito Santo follows with 18 million bags (+3%).
  • Brazil exported 11.5 million bags from January to April 2026, down 22.5% year-on-year due to low stocks, but April exports jumped 11.2% to 4.27 million bags, signaling recovery with the new harvest.
  • The USDA projects world production for 2025/26 at 178.8 million bags (+2%), with global demand rising 1.3% to 173.9 million bags, keeping prices elevated.

The National Supply Company of Brazil (Conab) released its second harvest survey on May 21, 2026, forecasting a record coffee production of 66.7 million 60 kg bags for the 2026 crop year, an 18% increase over the previous season.

If confirmed, this will be the largest harvest in Conab’s historical series, surpassing the 2020 record of 63.08 million bags.

The positive biennial cycle (higher production year for Arabica), the entry of new areas into production, and favorable weather conditions are the main drivers of this growth.

The total coffee area is expected to increase by 3.9% to 2.34 million hectares, comprising 1.94 million hectares of productive fields and 401,700 hectares of young plantations. National average productivity is projected to recover by 13% to 34.4 bags per hectare.

Arabica and Robusta Production

Arabica coffee production is forecast at 45.8 million bags, a 28% increase over 2025. This would be the third-highest Arabica harvest on record, behind only 2020 and 2018.

The expansion is driven by the positive biennial cycle, a larger area under production, and favorable weather conditions, particularly good rainfall distribution during the flowering period.

Robusta (Conilon) production is expected to reach 20.9 million bags, a modest 0.8% increase. While the harvested area is projected to grow to 388,220 hectares, average yields are estimated to drop 3.5% to 53.9 bags per hectare.

This decline reflects the high yields achieved in 2025 (a natural off-year for Robusta’s biennial cycle is less pronounced) and below-average temperatures in Espírito Santo during the production cycle, which affected plant physiology.

Production by State

Minas Gerais, the country’s largest coffee producer, is forecast to harvest 33.4 million bags (combining both species), a 29.8% increase over 2025.

This result is attributed to the positive biennial cycle combined with better rainfall distribution, especially in the months preceding flowering, as well as favorable weather through March, which provided good grain formation.

Espírito Santo, the second-largest producer, is expected to harvest 18 million bags, a 3% increase. Arabica production in the state is projected to rise 27.9% to 4.4 million bags, benefiting from the high biennial cycle.

However, Conilon production is forecast at 13.6 million bags, a 4.2% decrease due to the record-high performance in 2025 and below-average temperatures.

Bahia is expected to produce 4.7 million bags (+5.9%), supported by consistent weather, increased producer investment, and new areas entering production. São Paulo is forecast at 5.9 million bags (+24.6%), where only Arabica is grown. Rondônia is expected to produce 2.8 million bags (+19.4%), driven by the renewal of genetic material with more productive clonal plants and favorable weather.

Table 1: Brazil Coffee Production Forecast by State (2026, million 60 kg bags)

State 2026 Production (million bags) Change vs 2025 Main species
Minas Gerais 33.4 +29.8% Arabica
Espírito Santo 18.0 +3.0% Robusta (Conilon)
São Paulo 5.9 +24.6% Arabica
Bahia 4.7 +5.9% Both
Rondônia 2.8 +19.4% Robusta

Exports: April Recovery Signals New Harvest

According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), Brazil exported 4.27 million 60 kg bags in April 2026, an 11.2% increase compared to April 2025 (3.84 million bags). This was the first monthly increase in 2026, indicating the beginning of an export recovery as the new harvest enters the market.

“The rise in April reflects the start of the new harvest season in Brazil, which contributed to increased coffee availability for export,” said Horacio Miranda, analyst at hEDGEpoint. This upward trend supports Cecafé’s expectations of higher exports in the second half of the year.

In contrast, total exports from January to April 2026 reached 11.6 million bags, a 16.1% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. Export revenue for the first four months totaled $4.49 billion, down 14.4% year-on-year, according to MDIC data.

The decline in early 2026 reflects low domestic stocks resulting from limited production in previous years and strong export demand.

The main destinations in April were Germany, the United States, Italy, Belgium, and Japan.

Table 2: Brazil Monthly Coffee Exports (million 60 kg bags)

Month 2024 (million bags) 2025 (million bags) 2026 (million bags) Change (Apr 2026 vs Apr 2025)
January 3.2 3.1 2.9 –
February 2.8 2.9 2.4 –
March 3.0 3.2 2.6 –
April 3.4 3.84 4.27 +11.2%

Global Market Outlook

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts world coffee production for the 2025/26 cycle at 178.8 million 60 kg bags, a 2% increase over the previous cycle.

Despite the production increase, no significant price reductions are expected due to low carryover stocks from the previous cycle and a projected 1.3% increase in global demand to 173.9 million bags.

Brazil’s record harvest will play a major role in replenishing global stocks and meeting rising demand, particularly for high-quality Arabica beans.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will Brazil produce in 2026?

Brazil is forecast to produce 66.7 million 60 kg bags, an 18% increase over 2025, setting a new record.

What is driving the production increase?

The positive biennial cycle (high-yield year for Arabica), expansion of planted area (+3.9%), and favorable weather conditions, especially good rainfall distribution.

Which Brazilian state produces the most coffee?

Minas Gerais is the largest producer, forecast at 33.4 million bags, a 29.8% increase.

How are Brazil’s coffee exports performing?

April exports jumped 11.2% to 4.27 million bags, signaling recovery with the new harvest. However, January-April exports were down 16.1% due to low stocks.

What is the global coffee market outlook?

USDA projects world production at 178.8 million bags (+2%) and demand at 173.9 million bags (+1.3%), keeping prices elevated due to low stocks.

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília | Source: Conab, Cecafé, MDIC, USDA | Date: May 26, 2026

ADERE-MG Continues Fight Against Forced Labour in Brazil’s Coffee Sector

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Source: Business and Human Rights Centre and industry reports

Author: Qahwa World

Date: May 16, 2026

  • A new report highlighted forced labour risks in Brazil’s coffee sector.
  • Investigators found indicators of abuse in every worker interview.
  • Workers described poor housing and abusive recruitment practices.
  • Many exploitation cases reportedly remain undetected.
  • Industry groups and government bodies issued public responses.
  • ADERE-MG said the struggle against forced labour continues.
  • The findings renewed pressure on coffee supply chain transparency.

New human rights reports have renewed attention on labour conditions in Brazil’s coffee sector after investigations revealed continuing signs of forced labour during the 2025 harvest season.
The findings followed the release of the latest food and beverage benchmark by the KnowTheChain Project in February 2026.

The benchmark warned that many global companies remain unprepared to address climate-related forced labour risks across agricultural supply chains.
In parallel, field investigations conducted in Minas Gerais revealed recurring labour violations on coffee plantations.

Field Investigations Reveal Labour Abuses

KnowTheChain partnered with the Articulation of Rural Employees of the State of Minas Gerais, known as ADERE-MG, to investigate working conditions on Brazilian coffee farms.
According to the report, investigators identified indicators of forced labour in every interview conducted with workers.

Workers described abusive recruitment methods and degrading living conditions.
They also reported a lack of transparency regarding the companies purchasing the coffee they harvested.
As a result, workers struggled to seek remedies or accountability.

The report stated that Brazilian labour authorities sanctioned some plantations during the 2025 harvest.
However, many additional cases reportedly remained undetected because of limited enforcement resources and weak corporate action.

Government and Industry Responses

The findings generated strong reactions across Brazil’s coffee sector.
The National Coffee Council and Brazilian government representatives issued statements reaffirming their commitment to decent work and efforts to combat forced labour.

In response, ADERE-MG published a separate statement stressing that serious labour challenges remain unresolved.
The organization argued that existing measures still fail to address widespread exploitation in parts of the coffee supply chain.

The Business and Human Rights Centre also released a statement responding to comments made by government officials and coffee industry representatives.

Date Organization Content Type Main Topic
May 14, 2026 Business and Human Rights Centre NGO Response Response to government and industry statements
May 14, 2026 ADERE-MG NGO Response Continued fight against forced labour
April 17, 2026 National Coffee Board Article Commitment to decent work and labour protections
March 23, 2026 National Coffee Council Article Rejection of generalizations about coffee farming

Supply Chain Pressure Continues

Brazil remains one of the world’s largest coffee producers.
Therefore, labour conditions in its coffee industry attract significant international attention from buyers, regulators, and human rights groups.

Analysts say supply chain transparency remains a major challenge.
Companies face growing pressure to improve traceability and verify labour conditions across coffee-producing regions.

In addition, climate pressures and seasonal labour shortages continue to increase concerns about worker exploitation in agricultural industries worldwide.

FAQ

What is ADERE-MG?
ADERE-MG is an organization representing rural workers in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais.

What did the investigation find?
Investigators reported indicators of forced labour in all worker interviews conducted during the study.

What labour issues were identified?
Workers described abusive recruitment practices, poor living conditions, and limited transparency.

Did authorities take action?
Brazilian labour authorities sanctioned some plantations during the 2025 harvest season.

How did the coffee sector respond?
Industry representatives said they remain committed to decent work and labour protections.

Why is the issue important globally?
Brazil’s coffee industry plays a major role in international coffee supply chains and exports.

Author: Qahwa Worls

Source: Business and Human Rights Centre and industry reports

Date: May 16, 2026

Brazil’s Coffee Reality: When Climate Pressure Collides With Market Demand

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

This analysis is based on reporting first published by Dialogue Earth and written by Kevin Damasio. It has been adapted and republished by Qahwa World.

In the hills of Minas Gerais, where much of the world’s Arabica coffee is grown, a quiet transformation is underway. What was once a cycle of seasonal uncertainty has become a continuous struggle shaped by climate instability and shifting global demand.

This is no longer just a farming challenge. It is a defining moment for the future of coffee.

From Climate Variability to Climate Disruption

For generations, Brazilian coffee farmers adapted to occasional droughts, frosts, and irregular rains. Today, those events are no longer exceptions. They are part of a persistent pattern.

Longer dry periods, rising temperatures, and unpredictable rainfall are disrupting the biological rhythm of coffee itself. Flowering cycles are affected. Bean development becomes uneven. Yields lose consistency.

In regions like southern Minas Gerais, farmers are not asking if the weather will affect production. They are asking how severe the impact will be each year.

Scientific projections reinforce what farmers already experience on the ground. A significant share of Brazil’s Arabica-growing land faces the risk of becoming economically unviable in the coming decades if warming trends continue.

High Prices, Fragile Foundations

At the global level, coffee prices have surged as supply tightens. Brazil continues to generate record export revenues, even as shipment volumes fluctuate.

But this apparent strength hides a more fragile reality.

Higher prices are not translating into long-term security for producers. The cost of keeping coffee trees productive is rising. Irrigation systems, soil management, and climate-resistant varieties require investment. Losses from extreme weather events reduce financial resilience.

For many farmers, especially smallholders, the margin between survival and loss is narrowing.

The market is rewarding scarcity, but the conditions behind that scarcity are weakening the system that produces coffee.

The Retreat From Organic

One of the most telling shifts is happening in the field. Organic coffee production, once a growing segment, is under pressure.

Organic methods demand more labor, stricter management, and often higher costs. Under stable conditions, these systems can deliver value through quality and certification premiums. Under climate stress, they become harder to sustain.

As a result, some farmers are returning to conventional practices to secure more predictable yields. Even when they continue to limit chemical use, the shift reflects a deeper tension between sustainability and economic survival.

This raises an important question for the global coffee industry. Can sustainability commitments hold when producers face increasing climate risk and financial pressure?

Adaptation Becomes a Daily Practice

Across Minas Gerais, adaptation is no longer a long-term strategy. It is part of daily decision-making.

Farmers are replanting with more resilient Arabica varieties. They are improving soil cover to retain moisture. They are installing protective systems against hail and excessive sun.

Tree planting is gaining ground as a practical response. Shade reduces heat stress, stabilizes production, and creates microclimates that are more forgiving under extreme conditions.

Yet adaptation comes at a cost. Not every producer has equal access to credit, technical knowledge, or time to experiment. This creates a widening gap between those who can adjust and those who struggle to keep up.

Agroforestry and the Search for Balance

Among the emerging approaches, agroforestry stands out as both a return to coffee’s origins and a potential path forward.

By integrating trees, crops, and ecological processes, agroforestry systems aim to recreate the natural environment in which Arabica evolved. These systems can improve soil health, regulate water cycles, and reduce exposure to extreme weather.

Early results suggest strong potential in terms of resilience and quality. However, productivity gains are not always immediate, and management is more complex.

For many farmers, the question is not whether agroforestry works, but whether it is economically viable in the short term.

Without stronger institutional support, technical guidance, and market incentives, adoption is likely to remain limited.

A Changing Demand Landscape

While production faces mounting pressure, demand continues to expand.

Asia is becoming an increasingly influential force in global coffee consumption. Countries such as China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are reshaping how coffee is consumed, marketed, and valued.

For Brazilian producers and cooperatives, this shift offers new opportunities. It also introduces new expectations around volume, consistency, and price competitiveness.

This creates a delicate balance. Expanding into new markets may require scaling production, while climate realities are pushing toward more cautious and diversified farming systems.

The Future Is Being Rewritten in the Field

What is happening in Minas Gerais reflects a broader transformation across the global coffee sector.

Climate change is no longer a distant threat. It is actively redefining how coffee is grown. At the same time, market dynamics continue to evolve, creating both opportunity and pressure.

Farmers are responding with a mix of resilience, experimentation, and compromise. Some invest in new technologies. Others return to conventional methods. A few explore more complex ecological systems.

There is no single path forward.

What is clear is that the future of coffee will not be shaped by price alone. It will depend on how well the industry supports those at its foundation, the farmers who are adapting in real time to an increasingly uncertain environment.

For coffee, this is not just a moment of challenge. It is a moment of redefinition.

Rain Forecasts in Brazil Pressure Arabica Coffee Prices Despite Tight Global Supply

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Arabica coffee prices fell sharply on Thursday as forecasts of much-needed rainfall in Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions eased concerns about prolonged dryness that had recently pushed prices higher. Meanwhile, robusta prices edged up, supported by steady demand and limited inventories.

On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), December arabica (KCZ25) closed down –7.85 cents (–2.04%) at 297.05 U.S. cents per pound, while November robusta (RMX25) gained +26 points (+0.57%), reaching a three-week high.

Brazil Weather Outlook

According to Brazilian meteorological agency Climatempo, parts of Minas Gerais — the country’s largest arabica-producing region — could receive up to 30 millimeters of rain this week, a “significant amount” expected to promote flowering for the 2026/27 crop cycle. The prospect of rainfall led to profit-taking after recent price gains fueled by drought concerns.

Earlier this week, Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais received only 0.9 millimeters of rain during the week ended October 4 — just 3% of the historical average — raising fears of poor flowering and lower yields before these latest forecasts.

Inventory and Trade Developments

While weather news weighed on prices, global supply signals remained tight. ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 519,534 bags on Thursday, while robusta inventories hit a 2.5-month low of 6,237 lots. The sharp drawdown is partly linked to the 50% tariff on U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee, which has caused American buyers to void new contracts and tightened U.S. supplies. Brazil accounts for around one-third of America’s unroasted coffee imports.

At the same time, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct–Aug) rose by 0.2% year on year to 127.92 million bags, indicating adequate supply in the short term but little room for further tightening.

Production and Export Trends

Brazil’s crop forecaster Conab recently revised down its 2025 arabica crop estimate by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags (from 37 million in May) and cut total coffee output to 55.2 million bags (from 55.7 million). Meanwhile, Cecafé, the Brazilian exporters’ association, said coffee shipments fell 21% in the first seven months of the year to 22.2 million bags and plunged 28% in July alone.

In contrast, Vietnam — the world’s largest producer of robusta — is seeing strong growth. The Vietnam National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports from January to September 2025 rose 10.9% to 1.23 million metric tons, with the 2025/26 harvest expected to increase 6% to 1.76 million tons (29.4 million bags), a four-year high.

Global Outlook

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts global coffee production in 2025/26 to reach a record 178.68 million bags, up 2.5% year on year. Within that total, arabica output is expected to decline 1.7% to 97.02 million bags, while robusta is projected to rise 7.9% to 81.65 million bags. Ending stocks are forecast to increase by 4.9% to 22.82 million bags.

However, trader Volcafe projects a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26 — wider than the 5.5 million bag deficit in 2024/25 — marking the fifth consecutive year of shortfall.

Adding to market uncertainty, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on September 16 raised the probability of a La Niña event between October and December to 71%. Such conditions can cause dry weather in South America and potentially damage Brazil’s next coffee crop, maintaining a tense balance between short-term relief and long-term risk.

Market Summary

For now, traders remain focused on Brazil’s rainfall patterns and their impact on flowering and yields. If forecasted rains fail to materialize, a renewed price rebound could follow as concerns about crop development resurface. Conversely, consistent rainfall in October could alleviate some supply pressures and bring temporary stability to arabica prices.

Cold Snap Threatens Brazil’s 2026 Coffee Crop During Early Flowering

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Dubai, 13 August 2025- (Qahwa World) – As Brazil’s 2025 harvest concludes, attention is already turning to the next season — and early signs show potential trouble ahead. Early flowering has begun in several major coffee-growing regions, a stage when trees are especially vulnerable to weather changes. Recent cold temperatures in Minas Gerais and São Paulo have sparked frost concerns, prompting urgent on-the-ground assessments.

Flowering is underway in:

  • South of Minas – a high-altitude sub-region in Minas Gerais with dense specialty Arabica plantings, currently slightly behind in development.

  • Cerrado Mineiro – a designated coffee-producing area recognized for its dry harvest season and consistent quality.

  • São Paulo – including Mogiana, known for its fertile volcanic soils.

Over the past 24 hours, temperatures have fallen sharply. Patrocínio, in Cerrado Mineiro, recorded an early morning low of 1.9°C, with light frost confirmed in parts of the region. Initial reports point to minor visible damage so far. Weather forecasts indicate lows below 10°C across much of Minas Gerais through August 15, with frost risk at 50–70% in higher-altitude zones.

Potential Impact on Brazil’s Supply
While current assessments suggest limited frost damage, agricultural analysts caution that even without visible frost, low temperatures during flowering can reduce fruit set and lower yields. This could tighten Brazil’s 2026 coffee supply — a concern magnified by the recently imposed 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian green coffee. Any further cold fronts in the coming days could escalate risks and push global coffee prices higher.

The next week will be critical in determining how weather conditions will shape Brazil’s production outlook for the year ahead.