Moscow – Qahwa World
Coffee prices in Russia have reached an all-time high, with instant coffee exceeding 4,000 rubles per kilogram for the first time. Ground and roasted coffee have also risen sharply, prompting a noticeable decline in demand of 4–11% across categories.
A Steep Climb Over the Past Year
According to Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the price of natural instant coffee rose to 4,006 rubles per kilogram in September 2025, up from 3,988 rubles in August — an annual increase of 18.3%. The price of ground and roasted coffee jumped to 1,994 rubles per kilogram, marking a 29.3% rise compared with last year. In the foodservice sector, the average cup of coffee now costs 110.9 rubles, up 13.6% year-on-year.
Analytics from Check Index show that between June and August, the average retail price of coffee reached 829 rubles, 12% higher than in 2024. The average receipt for whole-bean coffee grew by 22% to 1,508 rubles per pack, while instant coffee climbed 11% to 461 rubles. Ground coffee increased by 16% to 650 rubles, and coffee capsules saw a 17% rise to 881 rubles per pack.
Why Coffee Is Getting More Expensive
The primary driver of the surge is the global rise in coffee prices. Over the past year, Arabica prices have increased by 1.5 times, while Robusta surged by 40% in just three months.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) attributes this to poor harvest conditions in Brazil, the world’s largest producer. Additional pressure has come from U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee, which encouraged American roasters to stockpile supplies. European roasters are also building reserves ahead of the EU’s deforestation-free supply regulations.
According to Olga Lebedinskaya, Associate Professor at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, domestic factors are also adding strain: inflation, higher transportation costs, international payment difficulties, and rising labor and rental expenses have all contributed to the surge.
“The market has become highly concentrated, leaving few alternative sources,” she explains. In 2025, Brazil overtook Vietnam as Russia’s main coffee supplier. From January to September, Russian companies imported $287.9 million worth of Brazilian coffee beans, nearly double the value imported during the same period in 2024.
Lebedinskaya notes that Laos could become an alternative source, but logistical barriers remain unresolved. “While for Russia this would serve as a niche complement to Brazilian and Vietnamese supplies, for Laos it means diversifying exports without raising costs dramatically,” she said.
What to Expect in 2026
Lebedinskaya forecasts that global price increases will reach Russia’s retail market with a six-month delay, meaning consumers are likely to see new price levels by spring 2026.
“Many coffee shops are already gradually adjusting their prices to soften the impact,” she noted, adding that the traditional tactic of replacing Arabica with cheaper Robusta is no longer effective, as both varieties are now priced nearly equally.
She expects coffee shops to expand their beverage menus by promoting alternatives such as matcha, chicory, and milk-based drinks, while espresso and Americano will likely see the fastest price growth.
According to Alexey Plugov, Director of the Agribusiness Analytical Center AB-Center, 2025 is set to record the highest average global coffee prices since the 1977 coffee crisis. In 2026, he predicts that prices will remain high but fall by 10–15% from 2025 levels.
Tea and Cocoa: Moderate Movements
Rosstat data show that as of October 6, the price of black tea in Russia reached 1,351.9 rubles per kilogram, rising 7.3% over the year — slower than the overall annual inflation rate of 8.1%. According to AB-Center, green tea prices grew by 3.9%, while black tea in bags increased by only 1.6%, averaging 84.7 rubles for a 25-bag pack.
In contrast, cocoa powder prices rose 7.1% year-on-year in September to 1,139 rubles per kilogram. Plugov notes that global tea prices could rise 8–12% in 2026, while cocoa prices may fall 5–10%, though still remaining well above 2022–2023 levels.
