Arabica Leads the Recovery: Coffee Outperforms Sugar, Cotton, and Cocoa in Q3 2025

Dubai – Qahwa World

The agricultural commodities sector gained 1.89% in Q3 2025, driven by strong advances in Arabica coffee and frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) futures. Despite the quarterly rise, the sector remained 19.25% below its 2024 closing level, with four of five major agricultural commodities ending lower and two down more than 40%.

Arabica coffee was the best-performing agricultural commodity in Q3, climbing 22.2% amid concerns over Brazil’s crop outlook and posting a 17.23% year-to-date increase. Futures closed at $3.7485 per pound at the end of September and climbed further to $4.0875 by mid-October, marking coffee as the standout performer of 2025 so far.
The monthly chart shows sustained bullish momentum that began in late 2024.

Cocoa, however, led the downside after reaching an all-time high of $12,931 per ton in late 2024. Prices plunged 27.86% in Q3 and 42.19% since the start of 2025, closing at $6,749 per ton in September and falling below $5,900 in mid-October. Analysts point to commodity cyclicality — high prices trigger oversupply, larger inventories, and weaker demand.

World sugar futures (#11) rose 4% in Q3 but are still 16.41% lower year-to-date. Prices settled at 16.10 cents per pound at the end of September, well below the November 2023 peak of 28.14 cents. By mid-October, March 2026 contracts were trading near 15.60 cents, extending the bearish trend.

Cotton prices slipped 0.77% in Q3 and 3.85% year-to-date. Futures closed September at 65.77 cents per pound and hovered slightly lower at around 65 cents in mid-October. Cotton has trended downward since the May 2022 high of $1.5595 per pound, though current levels may offer a foundation for recovery if production contracts due to low prices.

While FCOJ gained 11.90% in Q3, it remained the worst-performing agricultural commodity year-to-date, down 51.04%. Prices fell from a December 2024 record of $5.4315 per pound to $2.4355 by the end of September and slipped below $2 in mid-October.
Analysts note that FCOJ’s limited liquidity amplifies volatility, with low open interest and trading volumes causing sharper price swings.

As Q4 begins, coffee prices remain elevated while cocoa, sugar, cotton, and FCOJ continue to slide. However, sugar and cotton may find cyclical support, as low prices typically drive production cuts, inventory drawdowns, and stronger demand — setting the stage for a rebound.

Weather conditions, crop health, trade policies, and geopolitics will continue to shape volatility across agricultural commodities. While coffee may face corrective pressure after its rally, sugar and cotton appear the most likely candidates for recovery — particularly cotton, which tends to peak in Q1–Q2 amid planting uncertainty. With prices below 66 cents per pound, cotton could emerge as the strongest recovery play for 2026.

“Agricultural commodities led the asset class in 2023 and 2024 but have fallen behind in 2025. Yet, cyclicality remains the driving force — where lows are found, the next rallies begin.”

International Coffee Day: How It Started and Why the World Celebrates

Dubai – Qahwa World

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) has launched its global campaign to celebrate International Coffee Day (ICD), observed every year on October 1. The theme for 2025 is “Embracing Collaboration More Than Ever.” The ICO emphasized that this celebration is an opportunity to underline the vital role of collaboration across the coffee value chain — from farmers and cooperatives to traders, roasters, baristas, and consumers — ensuring sustainable livelihoods, shared prosperity, and resilient communities.

Vanúsia Nogueira, Executive Director of the ICO, stated: “Coffee is a product of many hands and many hearts. When farmers, cooperatives, researchers, roasters, traders, baristas and consumers work together, we create opportunities for income, resilience and environmental stewardship. This year’s campaign calls for practical collaboration that delivers real benefits along the whole chain.”

On this occasion, Qahwa World has prepared a comprehensive research report on International Coffee Day — its origins, history, economic and cultural significance, and its importance for the global coffee industry. This research is presented to highlight why this day is not just a celebration of a beverage, but a recognition of coffee’s role as a cultural, social, and economic force worldwide.

Origins and Establishment of International Coffee Day

International Coffee Day was officially established in 2014 during the International Coffee Council meeting in Milan, aligned with Expo 2015. The first official ICD celebration was held on October 1, 2015.

Objectives of the Day:

To unite coffee lovers around the world.

To honor and recognize coffee farmers whose livelihoods depend on this crop.

To raise global awareness about sustainability, fair trade, and challenges in the coffee sector.

To strengthen the sense of community among all participants in the coffee chain.

Historical Roots of Coffee

The history of coffee stretches back centuries, connecting continents and cultures:

Ethiopia: Coffee’s origins are often traced to Ethiopia, where wild coffee plants grew in the forests of Kaffa. Legends suggest its stimulating effects were first observed there.

Yemen: In the 15th century, coffee cultivation spread to Yemen. Sufi monks began preparing coffee as a beverage to help them stay awake during prayers, making Yemen the cradle of coffee culture.

Arab World: By the 16th century, coffee spread throughout Mecca, Cairo, Damascus, and Istanbul. Coffeehouses (qahveh khaneh) became centers of social, cultural, and intellectual life.

Europe: Coffee reached Venice in the early 17th century. It spread rapidly through Europe despite religious controversies and bans. Coffeehouses in London, known as “penny universities,” became hubs of debate and knowledge.

Asia and the Americas: By the 18th century, colonial powers introduced coffee cultivation to Asia (notably Indonesia) and Latin America (notably Brazil and the Caribbean), shaping the global coffee industry we know today.

Technological and Industrial Evolution

In the 19th century, industrialization revolutionized coffee. The invention of large-scale roasting machines and improved grinders allowed for mass production and consistent quality.

In the 20th century, new innovations such as soluble (instant) coffee emerged, led by companies like Nestlé in the 1930s. This changed global consumption patterns and made coffee more accessible.

Today, technological advances extend to specialty coffee roasting, precision brewing methods, and sustainable farming practices, reflecting the balance between tradition and innovation in the coffee world.

Celebration Dates Worldwide

Although October 1 is the official ICO date, different countries observe coffee days at varying times:

October 1: International Coffee Day (official ICO recognition, celebrated globally).

September 29: National Coffee Day in the USA, Canada, Austria, and a few other countries.

Other Coffee Days in the USA:

November 8: National Cappuccino Day

November 23: National Espresso Day

February 11: National Latte Day

These variations highlight the universal love for coffee across cultures.

Traditions and Activities

International Coffee Day is marked by a variety of events and initiatives:

ICO Campaigns: Every year, the ICO sets a central theme. In 2025, the focus is collaboration.

Coffeehouses and Roasters: Businesses worldwide host tastings, workshops, and awareness campaigns.

Social Media: Hashtags like #InternationalCoffeeDay and #ICD2025 amplify global participation, encouraging people to share their coffee experiences.

Awareness Programs: NGOs, cooperatives, and coffee associations use ICD to shed light on sustainability, fair income for farmers, and climate-related challenges.

Economic Impact of Coffee

Coffee is not just a cultural icon but also an economic powerhouse:

Consumption: Over 3 billion cups are consumed daily worldwide.

Production (2023, ICO): Approximately 170 million 60-kg bags of coffee are produced annually.

Top Producers (2023):

Brazil – 37% of global production

Vietnam – 17%

Colombia – 8%

Indonesia – 7%

Ethiopia – 5%

The Coffee Belt: Coffee production is concentrated in a tropical zone known as the Coffee Belt, spanning Latin America, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.

Trade Value: Coffee is the second most traded commodity globally after crude oil.

Social and Environmental Dimensions

The day also highlights the challenges and responsibilities facing the global coffee community:

Farmer Livelihoods: Coffee supports the livelihoods of over 125 million people worldwide, including around 25 million smallholder farmers directly dependent on it. Yet many live below the poverty line due to fluctuating prices and market instability.

Climate Change: Rising temperatures, pests such as coffee leaf rust, and deforestation threaten production worldwide.

Sustainability Efforts: Certifications such as Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance, and organic standards are promoted during ICD to encourage responsible production and consumption.

Cultural and Social Significance

Coffee has always been more than a drink — it has been a catalyst for culture and community:

In the Arab world, early cafés became places for music, chess, storytelling, and poetry.

In Europe, coffeehouses were breeding grounds for intellectual movements, journalism, and political debate.

Today, cafés remain spaces for creativity, networking, and cultural exchange.

Interesting Facts About Coffee

Coffee trees can live up to 100 years, though their most productive years are between 7 and 20.

Coffee faced multiple bans in history — in Mecca, Istanbul, and even in 18th-century Prussia — but it always returned stronger.

One of the most expensive coffees in the world is Ospina (Colombia), valued at $1,700 per pound in 2024.

The term “penny university” reflected the role of 17th-century English coffeehouses, where intellectual discussion was accessible for the price of a cup.

Conclusion

International Coffee Day is not simply about celebrating a beloved beverage — it is about recognizing the centuries-long journey of coffee from Ethiopia and Yemen to the rest of the world, and the millions of people whose lives are intertwined with it.

By establishing ICD in 2014, the ICO created a platform for uniting coffee lovers, supporting farmers, and promoting sustainability. In 2025, under the theme “Embracing Collaboration More Than Ever,” the ICO reminds us that coffee is more than a drink — it is a shared commitment to resilience, sustainability, and global cooperation.