Specialty Coffee Pricing in Dubai: Fair or Overpriced?

Focus Keyphrase specialty coffee pricing Dubai
Slug specialty-coffee-pricing-dubai
SEO Title Specialty Coffee Pricing in Dubai: Fair or Overpriced?
Meta Description (141 chars) Dubai coffee experts clash over pricing. Some say costs justify the price. Others call it greed. A full investigation.
Tags specialty coffee, Dubai coffee, coffee pricing, cafés, Dragoslav Džudović, Sigrid Ballard, Sarah Sahwan, Qussay Al Jabal, Albina Khamidullina

Executive Summary

  • Specialty coffee prices in Dubai have risen significantly, sparking debate among industry experts.
  • Dragoslav Džudović breaks down the real cost of a cup: between AED 15 and AED 35 before profit.
  • Sarah Sahwan argues that some cafés add a “greed” margin, with markups exceeding 200%.
  • Qusai Al Jabal insists that high prices are only fair for rare, exceptional beans.
  • Albina Khamidullina finds prices reasonable from an industry perspective, but admits specialty coffee is a luxury for most consumers.
  • Most experts agree that there is a noticeable gap between price and quality in many cafés.
  • No single business model fits all. Low‑price high‑volume and high‑price curated experiences can both work.

Specialty Coffee Pricing in Dubai: Fair or Overpriced?

Dubai’s specialty coffee scene has expanded rapidly in recent years. Prices have risen just as fast, especially for manual brews like V60 and filter coffee. This growth has opened a wider debate. Is specialty coffee still an everyday product? Or has it become an exclusive, luxury experience?

Qahwa World asked nine leading experts for their views. Their answers range from defending prices as a true reflection of operational costs to condemning them as unjustified. This investigation presents their full responses.

The Cost Reality: A Detailed Breakdown

Dragoslav Džudović, a well‑known barista and coffee consultant, offers a rare numerical breakdown. He insists that most consumers do not understand the real cost of a single cup.

“The real cost of one take‑away cup of coffee with milk, depending on the location in the UAE, ranges from AED 15‑25 to AED 25‑35+. Yes, you are reading that correctly. That is the cost. Let’s break it down per cup: Cost of goods – AED 4‑7 (beans, milk, packaging). Labour – 40% of the cost, which is AED 5‑15 (time to make the drink, service, salary, visa, gratuity, accommodation, insurance, and other benefits). Operating costs – AED 4‑10 (rent, utilities, AC, coffee machine, ice makers, chillers, freezers, etc.). Do not forget license, permits, marketing, insurance, fit‑out, POS, and bank fees.”

Therefore, when a café charges AED 35 for a cup, it may not be excessive. Many cafés, however, set their prices based on competition, not on real costs. Dragoslav warns that this approach is not sustainable. He adds that most small cafés fail in their first year because of miscalculations.

Sigrid Ballard, a specialty coffee expert, supports this view. She explains that Dubai’s pricing is higher than many global markets, but it reflects the city’s operational reality.

“In Dubai, rent and operational costs are the biggest drivers, especially in prime hospitality and lifestyle locations. While green coffee quality matters, the final retail price is more heavily influenced by location costs, staffing, fit‑out investments, and overall brand positioning.”

Samson Kibunja, a seasoned barista, adds that price should never be seen in isolation. He argues that a cup of coffee is the result of a long chain.

“The price of coffee is shaped by an entire ecosystem. Dubai is a market where high operational standards and premium locations significantly affect pricing. A cup of coffee is ultimately the result of a long chain – from farm to roasting, training, equipment, hospitality, and final service.”

Albina Khamidullina, from drinkit, offers a nuanced perspective. She agrees that costs justify prices, but she also acknowledges the consumer’s reality.

“I think specialty coffee is priced pretty reasonably, given the cost of beans, labor, and rent. But I say this as an industry worker, and I understand all the costs that go into the final price of the product. It is reasonably priced, but to the final consumer, it still might be too expensive.

Specialty coffee, unfortunately, is a luxury in most places. The biggest factor is rent, then labor (not only salaries, but visas, insurance, etc.), and of course, the CAPEX, and the coffee shop’s need to get its return on investment. At most specialty coffee places, a V60 cup costs 50‑60 dirhams.

I consider it more of a luxury than an everyday product, given that you can get a decent cup of coffee for 15‑20 dirhams. (We at DrinkIt serve only specialty beans, and you can get an americano for 15 dirhams, a filter for 17, and a V60 for 25 dirhams, which is a very good price considering market benchmarks.)

The current market lacks a consistent place where you get the same great product and service every time. There are a lot of amazing places in Dubai, but no two visits are the same in terms of quality. For sure, there is a big gap between the price and the product’s quality.

But in this case, the surroundings need to be taken into consideration: what’s the interior like, how many people work there, is it a prime location, and do they use loud marketing? It’s all included in the price of the final product. It depends on the business model and the brand’s goals. Both ways have their benefits, so I cannot answer this question without knowing the goals. We at DrinkIt try to find the gold standard between them.”

The Counterview: Overpricing and the “Greed” Factor

Sarah Sahwan, founder of The Optimist café, is blunt. She believes that some cafés charge far more than necessary.

“I believe the two biggest factors are rent, and greed. A coffee cup costs range  5 – 10  dirhams and that’s excluding the cost of labor and other expenses such as the rent, utilities and inflation  , which means there is room to mark up the price – but not by 200%. In malls, a cup of coffee now ranges between AED 25 and AED 50, and not all of them offer good quality.”

Hassa bint Ghuwaifa, an Emirati journalist and coffee enthusiast, also finds prices too high. She compares Dubai to other Gulf markets and sees a clear gap.

“Prices are high, especially compared to the Gulf region. It has become normal for a single cup to exceed AED 45. Specialty coffee is still a daily product for many, but at an abnormally high price. There is a clear gap between price and quality. I have paid over AED 70 for a cup that was worth every dirham. But I have also paid half that price for cups I regretted drinking.”

Stefan Kica, an industry observer, summarises his position even more sharply.

“As a regular consumer, prices are very high. As a B2B user, they are very affordable. That difference is the problem. Specialty coffee has become a luxury product. The market misses affordable coffee for everyone. There is a gap between price and quality – overpriced with no reason.”

A Conditional View: Quality and Rarity as Justification

Qusai Al Jabal, co‑founder of JabalBon Coffee Farm in Yemen and founder of Mokha Roots in Dubai, offers a more nuanced perspective. He does not reject high prices outright. Instead, he ties them to quality.

“It depends on the quality. It is too expensive if a café serves average coffee but charges a premium price. However, the high price is fair when you are drinking rare, high‑quality beans that are hard to grow, harvest, and ship. The biggest factors in Dubai are high rent in prime locations and luxury shop fit‑outs. Specialty coffee is moving fast toward luxury. It has become a luxury ritual.”

Qussai also warns about the gap between appearance and substance. “If coffee is expensive, the quality in the cup must match the price. It is wrong to buy cheap, low‑grade coffee, mark up the price ten times just because the shop is trendy.”

Syed Naveed, a well‑known coffee blogger and photographer, takes a middle position. He finds pricing fair compared to commercial coffee. But he admits that some extremes are hard to defend.

“Against commercial coffee, I find it fair. The quality in the cup, the sourcing story, the experience inside a specialty café – all of it adds up. But pricing can get out of hand fast when you move into micro‑lots and nano‑lots. The most extreme example recently has to be the Nido 7, priced at a thousand dollars. That is not a cup of coffee anymore. That is a statement.”

Syed also notes that green coffee prices have been climbing, and roasters can no longer absorb the increase. Rent, electricity, water, logistics, and labour have all gone up. As a result, a cappuccino can easily hit AED 30 or more in some places.

Where Do the Experts Stand? A Quick Summary

Expert Stance on Pricing Most Sustainable Model
Dragoslav Džudović High, but reflects real costs (AED 15‑35 cost) Low price with high volume after correct cost calculation
Sigrid Ballard High but justified by rent and operations Balanced: quality + efficiency + repeatable price
Samson Kibunja Fair when seen as part of a whole ecosystem Both models can work with integrity
Albina Khamidullina Reasonable from industry side, but luxury for consumers Depends on brand goals; drinkit seeks middle ground
Sarah Sahwan Unreasonable; greed is a major factor Lower pricing with higher volume
Hassa bint Ghuwaifa Too high compared to Gulf neighbours Lower prices with special higher‑priced options
Stefan Kica Very high as a consumer Low price with high volume
Qusai Al Jabal Fair only for rare, high‑quality beans Higher pricing with curated experience
Syed Naveed Fair vs commercial, but extreme micro‑lots overpriced Both work if the concept is strong

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why is specialty coffee in Dubai so expensive compared to other cities?
A: According to experts, the main reasons are high commercial rents, operational costs, staffing expenses, imported beans, and business models that focus on premium experiences. Dragoslav’s breakdown shows that the real cost per cup can reach AED 35 before any profit.
Q: Do all experts agree that prices are unfair?
A: No. Opinions are divided. Some, like Dragoslav and Sigrid, say prices reflect a high‑cost environment. Others, like Sarah and Stefan, call them excessive. Qussay and Albina argue that high prices can be fair if the coffee quality is exceptional, but Albina adds that for consumers it remains a luxury.
Q: What does Sarah Sahwan mean by “greed” as a factor?
A: She believes some cafés mark up prices by more than 200% without a corresponding increase in quality. In her view, a cup that costs AED 5 – 10 excluding the cost of labor, other expenses such as the rent utilities and inflation, to make should not be sold for AED 45 unless there is a real reason, such as rare beans or a unique experience.
Q: Is specialty coffee in Dubai an everyday product or a luxury?
A: It is both, depending on the café and the customer. Some experts say it remains accessible through various price points. Albina notes that while industry workers see reasonable pricing, for most consumers it is a luxury, especially when V60 costs 50‑60 dirhams at many places.
Q: Which business model is most sustainable according to the investigation?
A: There is no single answer. Dragoslav and Sarah favour lower prices with higher volume. Qusai prefers higher prices with a curated experience. Albina says it depends on brand goals, and DrinkIt tries to find a middle ground.
Q: What is missing from the current Dubai coffee market?
A: Experts point to a lack of transparency, consumer education, and a real connection to coffee farms. Albina adds that consistency is lacking: no two visits to the same café guarantee the same quality.

Climate Resilient Coffee: Excelsa and Liberica Offer Hope

Author: Qahwa World
Source: Mongabay (Meena Menon)
Date: June 1, 2026

Climate Resilient Coffee: Excelsa and Liberica Offer Hope

Executive Summary:

  • Mongabay published this story. Arabica and Robusta face growing threats from rising temperatures and erratic rainfall.
  • Lesser known coffee species like Excelsa and Liberica are gaining attention for their resilience and adaptability.
  • British planter Colonel Benson introduced Excelsa to India in the 1800s, but growers never commercialised it widely.
  • In 2025, the South India Coffee Company sold over four tonnes of Excelsa. Demand for saplings is now rising.
  • Researchers at Kew Gardens are studying underutilised species. They have proposed a new hybrid called Libex.
  • Ugandan farmers have grown hundreds of acres of Excelsa since the early 2000s as a climate adaptation.
  • For a sustainable future, the coffee industry must diversify by blending traditional and alternative species.

Mongabay published this story about climate resilient coffee. Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall increasingly threaten the two dominant coffee species, Arabica and Robusta. Pest pressures add to their vulnerability. Consequently, researchers and farmers are turning to lesser known species such as Excelsa and Liberica. These forgotten plants offer new hope for the industry.

Excelsa Gains New Relevance

Excelsa (Coffea dewevrei) grows naturally in parts of Tropical Africa and Southeast Asia. In India, farmers traditionally planted it as a boundary marker or for shade. However, they never commercialised it widely. According to an unpublished paper, a British planter named Colonel Benson introduced Excelsa to India in the late 1800s. He saw it as an alternative to Arabica after pest outbreaks. Nevertheless, its height, which can reach fifteen metres, made estate management impractical.

Today, climate change is prompting a revaluation. Akshay Dashrath, co founder of the South India Coffee Company, maintains 60 year old Excelsa trees on his estate in Karnataka. Interestingly, his grandfather used to drink only Excelsa at home. In 2024 and 2025, the company began revaluating Excelsa across five estates. As a result, they sold over four tonnes of green coffee in 2025. For 2026, they estimate sales will reach five tonnes.

Indian Growers Face Climate Instability

Across India’s coffee growing regions, farmers report increasing climate instability. Kerehaklu Estate in Karnataka has grown Excelsa and Liberica since 1953. Pranoy Thipaiah, the managing partner, told Mongabay that rainfall has become longer and more intense. He also noted that plants’ biological clocks have shifted. Pest pressure has increased as well. Excelsa and Liberica, he explained, handle climate variations better than traditional species. Their long gestation period means harvest occurs after the unseasonal rains pass. Thipaiah is now expanding his trials. He has seven different varieties from Vietnam growing in his nursery. Next year, he plans to transplant them into the main estate.

Global Research on Resilient Species

The search for climate resilient coffee extends far beyond India. Researchers have identified 133 different coffee species worldwide. Aaron Davis of the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, told Mongabay that Arabica and Robusta may soon lose their dominance. Arabica requires a cool tropical climate with distinct dry periods. Robusta needs warmth and moisture but cannot tolerate drought. Therefore, neither species can survive the coming changes. Davis advocates for diversification. “We need a portfolio of coffee crop species to adapt to altered climates,” he stated.

Excelsa is already scaling up in Uganda and Vietnam. Farmers there have grown hundreds of acres since the early 2000s. Kiwuka Catherine, a Ugandan research officer, explained that smallholders and large farmers are adopting Excelsa as a climate adaptation. At least 200 farms in Uganda and several in India, Vietnam, and South Sudan now produce Excelsa for export. This trend shows no signs of slowing.

New Hybrids and Future Possibilities

Species Climate Resilience Current Status
Arabica Low, heat sensitive Dominant but vulnerable
Robusta Moderate, not drought tolerant Widely grown, under pressure
Excelsa High, heat and drought tolerant Gaining commercial interest
Liberica High, adaptable Under research
Libex (hybrid) Very high, disease resistant Proposed new hybrid

Researchers have also investigated a hybrid between Liberica and Excelsa. They named it Coffea X libex, or Libex coffee. This hybrid resists heat, excess moisture, and disease effectively. According to Dashrath, this finding could prove crucial for the future of coffee. Hybrids offer a sustainable option for growers facing unpredictable weather. In India, Excelsa is slowly moving from obscurity into the mainstream. SICC has received requests for more than 4,000 saplings for 2026. Davis believes Ugandan Excelsa could appear in supermarkets within a decade. For a sustainable future, the coffee industry must embrace diversification, regenerative agriculture, and multiple alternative species.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why are Arabica and Robusta vulnerable to climate change?

Temperatures above 30°C reduce yields. Arabica cannot tolerate heat, while Robusta cannot handle drought. Changing rainfall patterns and pests add more stress.

2. What exactly is Excelsa coffee?

Excelsa (Coffea dewevrei) is a lesser known coffee species native to Africa and Southeast Asia. It grows tall and shows strong resistance to heat and drought.

3. Where can farmers grow Excelsa today?

Growers cultivate Excelsa in India, Uganda, and Vietnam. Ugandan farmers have grown hundreds of acres since the early 2000s as a climate adaptation.

4. What is Libex coffee?

Libex (Coffea X libex) is a hybrid between Liberica and Excelsa. It demonstrates strong resistance to heat, moisture stress, and disease.

5. Can consumers buy Excelsa coffee now?

Yes, but only in small quantities. In India, producers sold over four tonnes in 2025. Ugandan Excelsa may soon reach supermarket shelves.

6. What does the future of coffee look like?

Diversification. Growers will need a portfolio of species including Excelsa, Liberica, Stenophylla, and hybrids like Libex alongside improved Arabica and Robusta.

Qahwa World – Mongabay published this story. Reporting by Meena Menon.
Published: June 1, 2026

Ethiopian Coffee Arrives in Shetland via Honesty Box

Author: Qahwa World
Source: Based on reporting by Iona Nicol, BBC Scotland News
Date: May 31, 2026

Ethiopian Coffee Arrives in Shetland via Honesty Box

Executive Summary:

  • The BBC published this story about Netsanet Sori, who moved from Ethiopia to Shetland and brought her coffee tradition with her.
  • She now sells hand roasted Ethiopian coffee beans through an honesty box on the island of Whalsay.
  • Netsi was raised on a family coffee farm in rural Ethiopia after her mother died young.
  • She lived in Orkney for nine years before moving to Shetland in October 2025.
  • Traditional Ethiopian coffee ceremonies involve community gatherings, sharing news, and building belonging.
  • Netsi roasts the beans in a pot, constantly shaking them for even roasting, and then uses a small electric grinder.
  • Locals appreciate having a local source of real coffee instead of instant, and the honesty box adds to Shetland’s tradition of trust based sales.

The BBC published this story about a woman who moved from Ethiopia to Shetland and brought her coffee culture with her. Shetland is known for its honesty boxes.

These boxes usually contain fresh eggs, home baked goods, or pies.

However, the island of Whalsay recently received something different. A new honesty box now offers hand roasted Ethiopian coffee beans.

The coffee comes from Netsanet Sori, also known as Netsi. She moved to Whalsay in October 2025. Before that, she lived in Orkney for nine years. Netsi was raised on a family coffee farm in rural Ethiopia. Her mother died when she was young.

Therefore, her grandmother and great grandmother raised her on the farm. She says she had to grow up fast.

Staying Connected Through Coffee

Since moving to Scotland, Netsi has used coffee to stay connected to her home country. She imports coffee beans from the farm where she grew up. The BBC reported that she considers this tradition very important. She also plans to teach her children about it.

In Ethiopia, preparing and drinking coffee is a daily ritual. Community members, mainly women, gather for a traditional ceremony. Netsi told the BBC that neighbours and villagers meet once or twice a day.

They share information, good news, bad news, and love. She added that coffee is also about community belonging. “If you make a coffee, you can’t drink it alone,” she said. “You have to share what you have and help others.”

From Farm to Honesty Box

Hand roasting coffee beans is a slow and careful process. When the beans arrive in Whalsay, they are light green and have a subtle, earthy aroma. Netsi cleans them and roasts them in a pot. She constantly shakes the beans to ensure even roasting. As they cook, the beans darken to a rich brown. They also begin to release oil. Netsi says this is a sign of good quality coffee.

Traditionally, Ethiopians grind the beans with a tool that resembles a mortar and pestle. However, Netsi now uses a small electric grinder for speed.

While living in Orkney, she roasted coffee only for herself, friends, and charity events. After moving to Whalsay, she decided to turn her passion into a business. She told the BBC that after some research, she realized nobody else was roasting coffee like this in Shetland. She thought she could do it, and it has worked brilliantly. People seem to really like it.

Local Appreciation for Real Coffee

Ingrid Sutherland lives on Whalsay and has been buying the coffee. She first discovered it at a Christmas fair. She told the BBC that she is a coffee drinker who loves a good cup in the morning. She prefers real coffee, not instant. She was blown away by how cool it is. She added that the coffee is local, so she can just go along the road and get a bag instead of leaving the island. Shetland already has plenty of egg boxes and cake fridges, she said, but did not have a coffee box. She thinks it is fantastic to have one now.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Who is Netsanet Sori?

She is an Ethiopian woman who moved to Shetland after living in Orkney for nine years. She was raised on a coffee farm in Ethiopia and now sells hand roasted coffee beans on Whalsay island.

2. What is an honesty box?

An honesty box is a trust based sales system common in Shetland. Customers take products and leave payment in a box. They are typically used for eggs, baked goods, and now coffee.

3. How does Netsi roast her coffee?

She roasts the beans in a pot, constantly shaking them for even roasting. The beans turn from light green to rich brown and release oil, which indicates good quality.

4. What is the traditional Ethiopian coffee ceremony?

It is a daily ritual where community members, mainly women, gather to share coffee, news, and love. It emphasizes community belonging and sharing.

5. Why did Netsi start selling coffee in Shetland?

After moving to Whalsay, she realized nobody else was roasting Ethiopian style coffee in Shetland. She turned her passion into a business, and local residents appreciate having real coffee available locally.

6. What do locals think of the coffee box?

Ingrid Sutherland, a local resident, said it is fantastic. She enjoys having a local source of real coffee instead of relying on instant coffee or leaving the island to buy beans.

Qahwa World – The BBC published this story. Reporting by Iona Nicol, BBC Scotland News.
Published: May 31, 2026

Turkish Coffee Culture: From Kahvehane to Specialty Bars

Author: Qahwa World
Source: Original reporting on Turkish coffee culture
Date: May 30, 2026

Turkish Coffee Culture: From Kahvehane to Specialty Bars

Executive Summary:

  • Turkish coffee culture is one of the world’s oldest. UNESCO recognizes it for its brewing rituals and social traditions.
  • Key features include very fine grind, brewing in a cezve, and serving with water and a sweet treat.
  • Turkish and Lebanese coffee are similar but different. Lebanese coffee often contains cardamom.
  • Specialty coffee arrived in Turkey in the early 2010s. Kronotrop was a pioneer in Istanbul.
  • At first, consumers disliked lighter roasts. They found them too sour compared to traditional coffee.
  • By 2015, a coffee renaissance took hold. Today, specialty coffee coexists with traditional kahvehane.
  • Turkey’s coffee story now blends heritage with innovation. The cezve and V60 share the same tables.

Coffee is more than just a drink. In many countries, it has become a ritual. It is a language of social interaction. It also expresses national identity. Some people drink coffee slowly during long conversations. Others grab it on the go in paper cups. Some build entire philosophies around its preparation. Turkey is often the first country that comes to mind for old coffee traditions. However, modern coffee trends have reached Turkey as well. This article looks at the history of Turkish coffee culture. It also examines how specialty coffee is changing it.

A Tradition Rooted in the Ottoman Empire

Turkish coffee culture is among the oldest in the world. Historians agree that coffee arrived in the Ottoman Empire during the sixteenth century. It came from Yemen. During the reign of Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent, coffee became part of court life. By the mid-1550s, the first coffeehouses opened in Istanbul. They were called kahvehane, which means houses of coffee. These places quickly became more than just coffee shops. Men gathered there to play backgammon. They listened to poetry and music. They also discussed current events. Through the Ottoman Empire, coffee spread to Europe in the seventeenth century. It reached Venice, Paris, London, and Vienna. From there, it continued its journey across the world.

Forty Years in One Cup

UNESCO recognizes Turkish coffee culture on its Intangible Cultural Heritage list. The recognition includes the rituals of preparation and service. The defining feature of Turkish coffee is its very fine grind. The coffee is ground almost into powder. It is brewed in a cezve, which many know as a Turkish coffee pot. The coffee is not filtered. Therefore, the grounds remain in the cup. This produces a dense, rich, and full-bodied drink.

Turkish coffee is never made in haste. It heats slowly over low heat. Another traditional method uses hot sand. This allows the cezve to heat evenly from all sides. As a result, the extraction is smoother. The flavor profile becomes distinctive. Foam is considered essential. In Turkey, a thick foam layer shows the brewer’s skill. Serving coffee is also part of the ritual. A glass of water and a sweet treat usually accompany the coffee. The sweet treat is often Turkish delight or baklava. The water cleanses the palate before the first sip. The sweetness complements the coffee’s bitterness.

People order Turkish coffee according to sweetness levels. Sade means no sugar. Orta means medium sweetness. Şekerli means sweet. Another tradition is fortune-telling from coffee grounds. After finishing the coffee, the cup is turned upside down onto a saucer. Once the grounds settle, patterns on the cup’s walls are interpreted as symbols. For many Turkish families, this remains a popular social activity. A famous Turkish proverb says: “The memory of a cup of coffee lasts forty years.” In Turkish, it is “Bir kahvenin kırk yıl hatırı vardır.” This emphasizes that sharing coffee creates lasting bonds of friendship and respect.

Turkish Coffee and Its Lebanese Cousin

At first glance, Turkish and Lebanese coffee look almost identical. Both are brewed in a cezve. Neither is filtered. Both belong to the broader Middle Eastern coffee tradition. However, notable differences exist. Turkish coffee is generally denser. Its flavor is more straightforward. Traditional recipes rarely include spices. This allows the coffee’s own characteristics to take center stage. Lebanese coffee, in contrast, is often more aromatic. Cardamom is frequently added, sometimes generously. This creates a warm, spicy aroma with subtle citrus notes.

The cultural context also differs. In Turkey, coffee is closely linked to extended conversations, family gatherings, and coffeehouse culture. In Lebanon, coffee often serves as a symbol of hospitality. It is offered to guests as a matter of etiquette. Despite these differences, coffee represents far more than caffeine in both countries. It remains a slow, thoughtful ritual embedded in everyday life.

The Rise of Specialty Coffee

The twentieth century made coffee widely available. The twenty-first century has, in some ways, made it more exclusive again. This is due to the rise of specialty coffee. The term “specialty coffee” emerged in the 1970s. However, it became a global phenomenon only in recent decades. The Third Wave Coffee movement transformed how people view coffee quality and origin. Specialty coffee emphasizes transparency. Consumers are encouraged to know not only the variety and country of origin. They also learn about the specific region, farm, and altitude. Like wine, coffee is now appreciated for its terroir and flavor complexity.

Instead of bitterness alone, drinkers now seek fruity, floral, and tea-like characteristics. An Ethiopian coffee may exhibit jasmine-like notes. A Kenyan coffee may suggest red currant or pomegranate. The specialty movement has also popularized alternative brewing methods. These include V60, AeroPress, Chemex, siphon brewing, and various pour-over techniques. Baristas are seen as skilled professionals. Coffee shops have become destinations for culinary experiences.

Turkey’s Third Wave Coffee Revolution

Turkey has deep-rooted coffee traditions. Therefore, it might seem unlikely for specialty coffee to flourish there. Nevertheless, the Third Wave movement has established a significant presence over the past fifteen years. The first specialty cafés appeared in Istanbul in the early 2010s. Among the pioneers was Kronotrop Coffee Bar, founded in 2012. It introduced many Turkish consumers to alternative brewing methods and modern coffee culture.

Initially, reactions were mixed. Turkish tastes had been shaped by dark, strong coffee for centuries. Lightly roasted beans with bright acidity seemed unfamiliar. Many customers described such coffees as “too sour.” They simply differed from traditional expectations. However, by the middle of the decade, Istanbul was experiencing a genuine coffee renaissance. Independent roasters emerged. Baristas began training according to international standards. Coffee shops evolved into modern social spaces with minimalist design and open brewing stations.

Today, specialty coffee is part of everyday urban life in cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. Modern cafés offer pour-overs, filter coffee, cold brew, and sophisticated espresso blends. They serve these alongside traditional Turkish coffee. Outside the largest cities, specialty coffee remains relatively niche. In tourist destinations such as Antalya, specialty cafés are becoming more common. However, traditional Turkish coffee culture continues to dominate. Even so, new coffee trends are steadily taking root. This creates a unique coexistence between centuries-old traditions and contemporary specialty coffee culture.

Turkey’s coffee story is no longer defined solely by the cezve and the kahvehane. Instead, it reflects an ongoing dialogue between heritage and innovation. Traditional Turkish coffee and modern specialty coffee increasingly share the same table.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What makes Turkish coffee unique?

Very fine grind, brewing in a cezve, no filtration, slow heating, essential foam, and serving with water and sweets.

2. What is a kahvehane?

A traditional Turkish coffeehouse from the 16th century. It was a social gathering place for men to play games, listen to music, and discuss news.

3. Is Turkish coffee the same as Lebanese coffee?

No. Turkish coffee is denser and without spices. Lebanese coffee often includes cardamom and uses lighter roasts.

4. When did specialty coffee arrive in Turkey?

Early 2010s. Kronotrop Coffee Bar (founded 2012) was a pioneer of the third wave movement in Turkey.

5. How did Turkish consumers react to specialty coffee at first?

Reactions were mixed. Many found lighter roasts too sour compared to traditional dark Turkish coffee.

6. Where can you find specialty coffee in Turkey today?

Major cities like Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. Traditional kahvehane culture still dominates in rural areas.

Qahwa World – Original reporting on Turkish coffee culture.
Published: May 30, 2026

Coffee Prices Fall on Forecasts for Dry Weather in Brazil

Author: Qahwa World
Source: Barchart (Rich Asplund)
Date: May 29, 2026

Coffee Prices Fall on Forecasts for Dry Weather in Brazil

Executive Summary:

  • July arabica coffee futures closed down 2.70% on dry weather forecasts for Brazil, allowing the harvest to resume after rain delays.
  • July robusta coffee fell 2.14% amid improved global supply outlook and rising Vietnam exports.
  • Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is projected to increase 12% to 71.4 million bags, with some forecasts as high as 75.9 million bags.
  • StoneX expects the 2026 global coffee surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years.
  • Vietnam coffee exports rose 15.8% in January-April 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.
  • ICE arabica inventories fell to a 3.25-month low of 440,785 bags, supporting prices.
  • El Niño risks and dry conditions in Vietnam remain supportive for prices, while the US dollar weakness added support.

Coffee prices retreated sharply on Thursday after updated weather forecasts called for dry conditions next week in Brazil’s coffee growing regions.

The dry weather will allow the coffee harvest to resume after being delayed this week by heavy rains. July arabica coffee futures closed down 2.70%, while July robusta coffee fell 2.14%.

Brazil Crop Outlook and Global Surplus

Coffee prices have trended lower over the past month, with arabica falling to a one and a half year low last Tuesday amid an improved global supply outlook.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest would increase 12% year on year to 71.4 million bags.

On March 19, Marex Group projected a record Brazilian crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags.

On March 12, StoneX raised its estimate to a record 75.3 million bags. StoneX also projected the 2026 global coffee surplus would expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the largest surplus in six years.

Vietnam Exports and Inventory Trends

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.

On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports in the first four months of 2026 rose 15.8% year on year to 810,000 metric tons.

Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to climb 6% to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags.

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past two months, which typically supports prices. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.25-month low of 440,785 bags on Thursday.

ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots on May 15, but recovered to a six week high of 3,968 lots last Friday.

Weather Risks and Other Factors

Global weather risks remain supportive for coffee prices. Excessive dryness in Vietnam is raising concerns about the robusta coffee crop.

Weather forecaster Vaisala said recent showers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands have been spotty, and more rain is needed to aid cherry growth.

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are also supportive for prices.

Coffee trader Commercial said El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, potentially hurting the 2026/27 crop.

NOAA estimates an 82% probability of El Niño between May and July, with a 67% chance of a Super El Niño.

Smaller exports from Brazil are supportive of coffee prices.

On May 12, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3% year on year to 2.76 million bags.

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies, increasing shipping rates, insurance, and fuel costs, which is bullish for prices.

USDA Production Forecasts

Indicator 2025/26 Forecast
World coffee production 178.848 million bags (+2.0% record)
Arabica production 95.515 million bags (-4.7%)
Robusta production 83.333 million bags (+10.9%)
Brazil production 63 million bags (-3.1%)
Vietnam production 30.8 million bags (+6.2%, 4-year high)
Ending stocks 20.148 million bags (-5.4%)

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service bi-annual report of December 18 projected world coffee production in 2025/26 would increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags.

Arabica production is expected to decrease 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to rise 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

The USDA also forecast Brazil’s coffee production to decline 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output would rise 6.2% to a four year high of 30.8 million bags.

Ending stocks are projected to fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why did coffee prices fall on Thursday?

Prices fell due to forecasts of dry weather in Brazil, allowing the coffee harvest to resume after being delayed by heavy rains.

2. How much did arabica and robusta drop?

July arabica fell 2.70%, and July robusta fell 2.14%.

3. What is the projected Brazilian coffee crop for 2026/27?

The Coffee Trading Academy projects 71.4 million bags, while Marex Group and StoneX project record crops above 75 million bags.

4. How much did Vietnam’s coffee exports increase?

Exports rose 15.8% in January-April 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.

5. What is the expected global coffee surplus for 2026?

StoneX projects a surplus of 10 million bags, the largest in six years.

6. How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

El Niño could delay rains in Brazil during the flowering season, potentially reducing the 2026/27 crop, which supports prices.

Qahwa World – Based on Barchart commodity bulletin by Rich Asplund.
Published: May 29, 2026

$1.8 Million Hot Coffee Fine Appealed Over Nonexistent Temperature Standard

Author: Qahwa World
Date: May 29, 2026

$1.8 Million Hot Coffee Fine Appealed Over Nonexistent Temperature Standard

Executive Summary:

  • Potomac Falls Health & Rehab Center appealed a $1.8 million fine over a hot coffee burn case, arguing there is no federal coffee temperature standard.
  • The facility claims regulators relied on a nonexistent standard, highlighting legal uncertainty around hot beverage safety in care facilities.
  • La Marzocco became the first espresso machine maker to earn B Corp certification with a score of 84.4.
  • Nicaragua Cup of Excellence: Samuel Zavala won washed Geisha (91.44); Inversiones Valladarez won natural Geisha (92.00).
  • El Salvador Cup of Excellence: La Esperanza Bernardina Honey coffee won with 91.95.
  • Starbucks Mexico will donate over 800,000 rust-resistant coffee plants.
  • Starbucks Workers United reached 700 election victories with over 12,000 members.
  • Sucafina released 2025 Sustainability Report. Melitta to invest €100 million in Bremen roastery.

A Virginia health care facility has formally appealed a $1.8 million fine tied to a resident burn case involving hot coffee, arguing that regulators relied on a nonexistent federal temperature standard. The case reignites legal debates over hot beverage safety and liability in care facilities across the United States.

The $1.8 Million Hot Coffee Fine Appeal

Potomac Falls Health & Rehab Center in Sterling, Virginia, filed an appeal in federal court against a $1.8 million penalty related to a resident who suffered burns from hot coffee, according to McKnight’s Long-Term Care News. The facility argues that there is no federal standard specifying a safe temperature for serving coffee. Regulators, they claim, applied a nonexistent rule, making the penalty unjustified. This case echoes the famous McDonald’s hot coffee lawsuit from the 1990s, which resulted in a multi-million dollar verdict and changed industry practices. The outcome of this appeal could set new precedents for how nursing homes and hospitals manage hot beverage risks.

La Marzocco Earns B Corp Certification

Italian espresso machine manufacturer La Marzocco announced it has obtained B Corp certification with a B Impact Score of 84.4, exceeding the 80 point threshold. The company said it is the first espresso machine manufacturing company to earn the seal, recognizing high standards of social and environmental performance, transparency, and accountability.

Cup of Excellence Winners: Nicaragua and El Salvador

Country Category Producer / Farm Variety Score
Nicaragua Washed Samuel Zavala / El Cambalache Geisha 91.44
Nicaragua Naturals & Honey Inversiones Valladarez Acevedo S.A. / Los Alpes Geisha (Natural) 92.00
El Salvador Honey Inversiones Santonano / La Esperanza Bernardina Not specified 91.95

The 22nd Nicaragua Cup of Excellence concluded with 29 winners. Both top coffees originate from Dipilto in Nueva Segovia. The El Salvador Cup of Excellence also finished this month with 29 winners, including eight coffees scoring 90 points or higher.

Starbucks Mexico: License Renewal and Plant Donation

Alsea renewed its Starbucks licensing agreement for 20 years, retaining rights through 2046. Starbucks Mexico launched “Todos Sembramos Café” to donate over 800,000 rust-resistant coffee plants across Chiapas, Puebla, and Veracruz. Purchases from May 25 to July 5 support the initiative, with 60% of plants being Starbucks-developed varieties.

Starbucks Workers United Reaches 700 Victories

The union has won elections at nearly 700 locations and represents over 12,000 partners after two Chicago stores recently voted to unionize.

Parametric Insurance Payouts in Vietnam

Willis and Global Parametrics delivered payouts to coffee farmers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands after high rainfall triggered a parametric insurance policy based on NASA satellite data.

Sucafina Releases 2025 Sustainability Report

Geneva-based Sucafina released “Connected Value,” highlighting market recognition that sustainability matters in coffee, with updates to its IMPACT responsible sourcing program.

Melitta to Invest €100 Million in Bremen

The Melitta Group will invest over €100 million to increase roasting capacity at its Bremen site by about 50% over five to six years.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why was Potomac Falls fined $1.8 million?

The fine was related to a resident burn case involving hot coffee. The facility appealed, arguing there is no federal coffee temperature standard.

2. What is La Marzocco’s B Corp score?

84.4, exceeding the 80 point threshold required for certification.

3. Who won the Nicaragua Cup of Excellence?

Samuel Zavala (washed Geisha, 91.44) and Inversiones Valladarez (natural Geisha, 92.00).

4. How many coffee plants will Starbucks Mexico donate?

More than 800,000 rust-resistant coffee plants, with 60% being Starbucks-developed varieties.

5. How many union election victories has Starbucks Workers United achieved?

Nearly 700 locations, representing over 12,000 union partners.

6. How will Melitta expand its Bremen facility?

Through adjacent land purchases, a new building, and expanded production systems, increasing roasting capacity by about 50% over five to six years.

Qahwa World

Tepi Agricultural Research Center Distributes Improved Coffee and Spice Seedlings to Farmers

Author: Qahwa World
Source: Ethiopian News Agency (ENA)
Date: May 28, 2026

Tepi Agricultural Research Center Distributes Improved Coffee and Spice Seedlings to Farmers

Executive Summary:

  • Tepi Agricultural Research Center is distributing research proven coffee, spice, and fruit seedlings to farmers in the region.
  • More than 700,000 seedlings of cocoa, vanilla, and other spices are being prepared for the upcoming planting season.
  • The seedlings are environmentally adaptable and have demonstrated high productivity through research validation.
  • Farmers who have previously planted these varieties confirmed shorter harvest times and increased yields.
  • The center is distributing seedlings that were propagated during the dry season for the upcoming rainy season planting.
  • Local authorities confirmed that the initiative enhances farmer productivity and economic returns.

Tepi Agricultural Research Center has announced that it is distributing research proven coffee, spice, and fruit seedlings to farmers in the region. The center is preparing over 700,000 seedlings of marketable crops including cocoa, vanilla, and other spices for the upcoming rainy season planting.

Dr. Dereje Tulu, Director of Tepi Agricultural Research Center, stated that the center is currently preparing more than 700,000 spice seedlings aimed at improving farmer productivity and increasing economic returns. The seedlings, which will be planted in the coming rainy season, are environmentally adaptable and their productivity has been confirmed through research.

Research Validated Varieties for Better Productivity

According to Dr. Dereje, the seedlings distributed by the center have undergone rigorous research validation. Beyond their high productivity, they also contribute to preserving the local ecosystem. Alemseged Haileiyesus, Deputy Head of the Sheka Zone Agriculture, Forest, Environment Protection and Cooperatives Department, confirmed that the center is providing farmers with research proven spice and other seedlings. He added that this initiative successfully enhances farmer productivity and economic benefits.

Farmers Confirm Positive Results

The center continues its work by distributing seedlings propagated during the dry season for planting in the rainy season. Farmers from Yeki district, including Mohammed Taye and Ayelech Anamo, confirmed through practical experience that varieties supplied by the research center produce harvests in shorter time frames with improved productivity. They indicated that they are now working to enhance their economic returns by planting seedlings they prepared themselves alongside those provided by the center.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What types of seedlings is Tepi Research Center distributing?

The center is distributing coffee, spice (including cocoa, vanilla), and fruit seedlings that have been proven through research.

2. How many seedlings are being prepared for distribution?

More than 700,000 seedlings are being prepared for the upcoming rainy season planting.

3. Are these seedlings environmentally suitable?

Yes, the seedlings are adaptable to the local environment and have been validated through research for their ecological compatibility and productivity.

4. What results have farmers reported?

Farmers confirmed that these varieties produce harvests in shorter time frames and provide higher productivity compared to traditional varieties.

5. When will the seedlings be planted?

The seedlings will be planted during the upcoming rainy season.

6. What is the goal of this initiative?

To improve farmer productivity, increase economic returns, and promote environmentally sustainable agriculture.

Qahwa World – Based on reporting from the Ethiopian News Agency (ENA).
Published: May 28, 2026

China Opens Market to African Coffee from July 20, 2026

Author: Qahwa World
Source: Xinhua News Agency
Date: May 29, 2026

China Opens Market to African Coffee from July 20, 2026

Executive Summary:

  • China’s General Administration of Customs announced it will allow qualified coffee beans from 53 African countries starting July 20, 2026.
  • Coffee is the second African agricultural product to receive full phytosanitary clearance after dried chili peppers.
  • Ethiopia and Burundi have already obtained export permits, while others like Mauritius, Angola, and Togo have applied.
  • China has introduced unified phytosanitary requirements, eliminating the need for separate bilateral agreements.
  • The clearance does not exempt shipments from border inspections; all must comply with customs announcement No. 68 of 2026.
  • China will continue green channel facilitation for high-quality African agricultural products.

China’s General Administration of Customs has announced that the country will allow qualified coffee beans from all 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations to enter its market starting July 20, 2026. Coffee is a distinctive agricultural product and a key economic pillar for many African nations. It is the second African agricultural product to receive full phytosanitary clearance to enter the Chinese market after dried chili peppers, according to customs data.

Official data indicates that African countries such as Ethiopia and Burundi have already obtained permission to export coffee beans to China, while other countries including Mauritius, Angola, Togo, Guinea, Liberia, and Sao Tome and Principe have submitted export applications.

Simplified Phytosanitary Procedures

After a comprehensive assessment of African coffee production systems and pest risk management frameworks, the customs administration has established unified phytosanitary requirements. This step eliminates the previous practice of negotiating separate bilateral quarantine agreements with each applicant country, significantly streamlining entry procedures. Industry experts noted that obtaining full phytosanitary clearance does not mean exemption from border inspections. All shipments must comply with the requirements set forth in customs announcement No. 68 of 2026.

Strengthening Trade Cooperation with Africa

A customs official added that the administration will continue to apply advanced facilitation measures under the “green channel” to bring more high-quality, safe African agricultural and food products to the Chinese market. This step is part of broader efforts to enhance trade cooperation between China and African countries, open new markets for African producers, and meet the growing demand for coffee in China’s rapidly expanding coffee market.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. When does the policy take effect?

Starting July 20, 2026.

2. How many African countries are eligible?

53 African countries with diplomatic relations with China.

3. Does clearance mean no border inspections?

No, all shipments must comply with customs announcement No. 68 of 2026 requirements.

4. Which African countries already have export permits?

Ethiopia and Burundi, with others like Mauritius, Angola, Togo, Guinea, Liberia, and Sao Tome and Principe having applied.

5. What is the goal of this measure?

To enhance China-Africa trade cooperation, simplify import procedures, and meet China’s growing coffee demand.

6. What was the first African product to receive full clearance?

Dried chili peppers, with coffee as the second.

Qahwa World – Based on Xinhua News Agency reporting.
Published: May 29, 2026

Global Coffee Logistics Under Pressure: Strait of Hormuz & Red Sea Disruptions

Author: Qahwa World – Logistics Desk
Source: Industry logistics report, Q2 2026 (carrier data, analyst estimates)
Date: May 27, 2026

Global Coffee Logistics Under Pressure: Strait of Hormuz & Red Sea Disruptions

Executive Summary

  • A near‑total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces has reduced container traffic by more than 95%, stranding roughly 500,000 TEUs in the Gulf region.
  • Brent crude has risen above $90 per barrel, and carriers have imposed emergency fuel surcharges, some retroactively.
  • Red Sea instability has forced over 75% of container ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10‑14 days to Asia‑Europe voyages and absorbing 15‑20% of vessel capacity.
  • Brazil’s agricultural export corridors are overwhelmed, causing truck queues, terminal congestion, and competition for containers – directly affecting coffee shipments.
  • Schedule reliability among top carriers ranges from 46.6% (Wan Hai) to 72.3% (Hapag‑Lloyd), with most carriers in the 60‑70% range.
  • Capacity is tight or manageable depending on the trade lane, with spot rates rising and container shortages reported from Honduras and Nicaragua.
  • These logistics pressures are delaying coffee deliveries, raising inventory costs, and adding uncertainty to global coffee supply chains.

The global logistics system is under severe strain in the second quarter of 2026. Two major maritime chokepoints – the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea – are simultaneously disrupted, pushing freight rates higher and delaying shipments of coffee and other goods.

For coffee exporters and importers, these disruptions mean longer transit times, higher costs, and increased uncertainty. The situation is compounded by congestion at Brazilian ports during peak agricultural export season.

Strait of Hormuz: Near‑Total Blockade

As of May 2026, severe instability in the Strait of Hormuz has caused container shipping traffic to drop by more than 95%. Iranian forces have established a near‑total blockade.

Daily ship transits fell from roughly 130 in February 2026 to nearly zero in March. Approximately 3,200 vessels are trapped in the Gulf or waiting outside the strait.

About 500,000 TEUs (Twenty‑Foot Equivalent Units) are stranded at Gulf ports or at sea, creating severe equipment imbalances worldwide.

War‑risk insurance premiums have become prohibitive or have been withdrawn, making passage through the area commercially unviable for many carriers.

Shipping lines are rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit times and adding significant costs for trade routes linking Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

The disruption has also pushed Brent crude prices above $90 per barrel. This fuel shock increases pressure on global supply chains beyond freight and logistics costs alone.

Analysts anticipate prolonged disruption. Even after restrictions ease, recovery will likely take months due to vessel backlogs, equipment shortages and network imbalances.

Red Sea: Rerouting and Capacity Crunch

Red Sea instability, driven by Houthi militant attacks, has forced over 75% of container ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. This adds roughly 10‑14 days to Asia‑Europe voyages.

The crisis has caused a roughly 90% drop in Suez Canal container transit. Extended voyages have absorbed significant shipping capacity, leading to a 15‑20% reduction in available capacity.

Ships are arriving off‑schedule, causing congestion at various transshipment hubs. Spot freight rates on Asia‑Europe routes have increased substantially.

The longer route has resulted in higher fuel consumption, increasing CO2 emissions by over 30%. While some ceasefires were proposed in early 2025, uncertainty remains high.

Analysts predict long‑term structural changes to shipping routes and sustained higher costs for the foreseeable future.

Fuel Surcharges and Rising Freight Costs

Fuel surcharges, often called Bunker Adjustment Factors (BAF), are additional fees added to container shipping rates to account for changes in fuel prices.

As of April 2026, higher fuel costs combined with route disruptions have pushed these charges up significantly. Ocean carriers like MSC, CMA CGM, and Maersk have implemented emergency fuel surcharges, sometimes applied retroactively to cargo already in transit.

These surcharges increase overall freight costs for coffee exporters, especially those shipping from East Africa, Asia, and Latin America to Europe and North America.

Brazil Export Logistics Under Pressure

Brazil’s large soybean and agricultural harvest has overwhelmed northern logistics corridors, especially around Amazon export terminals such as Miritituba.

Truck queues have stretched for kilometers, slowing inland transportation and export throughput. Although soybeans were the primary cargo affected, coffee exporters face indirect impacts.

These include reduced truck availability, terminal congestion, chassis shortages, and rail prioritization toward grains. Brazilian coffee exporters are seeing increased inland freight volatility and tighter booking windows.

Meanwhile, expectations for a strong Brazilian coffee crop (66.7 million bags in 2026) are increasing export demand forecasts for the second half of the year, which could further strain logistics.

Schedule Reliability and Trade Lane Conditions

Schedule reliability among top carriers varies widely. In March 2026, Hapag‑Lloyd was the most reliable top‑13 carrier with 72.3%, followed by Maersk at 70.8%.

Eight carriers had reliability in the 60‑70% range, two were in the 50‑60% range, and Wan Hai was the least reliable at 46.6%.

Only two carriers recorded a month‑over‑month decline in schedule reliability, while 11 of the 13 carriers recorded a year‑over‑year improvement.

The Gemini Cooperation recorded 76.8% schedule reliability across all arrivals in February/March 2026, followed by MSC at 65.4% and Ocean Alliance at 65.9%.

Table 1: Trade Lane Conditions (Q2 2026)

Trade Lane Capacity Rate Trend Key Issues
APAC to Global Flat (no space issue) Increasing Spot rates rising
India to Global Tight Slight upward Container availability limited
Brazil to Global Manageable Stable Port congestion, gate windows, occasional rollovers
Central America (CAM) to Global Tight Container shortages (20s and 40s) from Honduras/Nicaragua
East Africa to Global Good Congestion in Dar es Salaam and Mombasa

Implications for Coffee Supply Chains

The combination of these logistics pressures is hitting coffee exporters and importers hard. Coffee shipments from East Africa (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania) face congestion at Mombasa and Dar es Salaam.

Central American coffee (Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala) is facing container shortages, particularly for 20‑foot and 40‑foot units, delaying exports to the United States and Europe.

Brazilian coffee exporters are competing with soybeans and other grains for trucking and terminal capacity. Inland freight volatility is rising, and booking windows are tighter.

Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10‑14 days to Asia‑Europe shipments. For coffee from Vietnam and Indonesia to Europe, transit times have increased significantly, affecting freshness and quality.

Emergency fuel surcharges are raising delivered costs for coffee importers. These costs will eventually be passed down the supply chain to roasters and consumers.

Schedule reliability remains below pre‑crisis levels. This means coffee buyers cannot rely on predictable delivery windows, forcing them to hold more inventory, which ties up capital.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has the Strait of Hormuz blockade affected coffee shipping?

The blockade has stranded about 500,000 TEUs in the Gulf, caused massive rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and triggered emergency fuel surcharges, all of which increase coffee shipping costs and delays.

What is the impact on coffee from East Africa?

East African ports (Mombasa, Dar es Salaam) are congested, and container availability is tight, delaying shipments from Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.

How are Central American coffee exports affected?

Honduras and Nicaragua face container shortages for 20‑foot and 40‑foot units, slowing coffee exports to the United States and Europe.

What is the outlook for schedule reliability?

Most top carriers have 60‑70% reliability, but the trend is improving year‑over‑year. Hapag‑Lloyd leads at 72.3%.

Will freight rates continue to rise?

Yes. Emergency fuel surcharges and capacity shortages are pushing spot rates higher, and analysts expect sustained high costs due to prolonged rerouting.

How is Brazil’s coffee harvest affecting logistics?

A record coffee crop (66.7 million bags) is competing with soybeans for trucking and terminal capacity, causing congestion and tighter booking windows.


Author: Qahwa World – Logistics Desk | Source: Industry logistics report, carrier data, analyst estimates | Date: May 27, 2026

Coffee Prices Rise on Weather Concerns

Author: Qahwa World
Source: Barchart
Date: May 27, 2026

Coffee Prices Rise on Weather Concerns

Executive Summary:

  • July arabica coffee futures closed up 0.61 percent on Tuesday, while robusta gained 1.82 percent.
  • Dry and uneven rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands raised concerns about robusta cherry development.
  • El Niño could delay Brazil’s September-October rains, threatening the 2026/27 flowering season.
  • NOAA estimates 82% chance of El Niño from May to July, with 67% chance of a Super El Niño.
  • Vietnam coffee exports rose 15.8% in Jan-Apr 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.
  • ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low before recovering slightly to 3,968 lots.
  • Brazil’s April green coffee exports declined 1.3% to 2.76 million bags.

Coffee prices moved higher on Tuesday, reaching one week highs as weather risks in key producing countries raised concerns about future supply.

July arabica coffee futures closed up 0.61 percent, while July ICE robusta coffee futures gained 1.82 percent.

Robusta prices climbed sharply due to continued dry conditions in Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer.

According to weather forecaster Vaisala, recent rainfall in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s main coffee growing region, has been uneven. Additional rain is needed to support cherry development.

El Niño Risks in Brazil

Concerns over a possible El Niño weather pattern in Brazil also supported prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño could delay seasonal rains in Brazil during September and October, the critical flowering period for coffee trees, potentially affecting the country’s 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates an 82 percent probability that El Niño conditions will develop between May and July and continue through the end of the year, including a 67 percent chance of a Super El Niño.

Despite Tuesday’s gains, coffee prices have generally weakened over the past month as expectations for larger global supplies weighed on the market. Arabica futures fell to a one and a half year low last week following several optimistic crop forecasts for Brazil.

Supply Forecasts and Vietnam Exports

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest at 71.4 million bags, up 12 percent year on year.

Marex Group forecast a record crop of 75.9 million bags, while StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags. StoneX also projected the global coffee surplus could expand to 10 million bags in 2026, compared with 1.8 million bags in 2025.

Additional pressure on robusta prices has come from rising exports from Vietnam. On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports during January to April rose 15.8 percent year on year to 810,000 metric tons.

Full year exports for 2025 increased 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to rise 6 percent to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags, the highest level in four years.

Inventories and Other Factors

Indicator Value
July arabica close (Tuesday) Up 0.61% (KCN26)
July robusta close (Tuesday) Up 1.82% (RMN26)
Vietnam coffee exports (Jan-Apr 2026) 810,000 MT (+15.8% y/y)
ICE robusta inventories (May 22) 3,968 lots (6-week high)
ICE arabica inventories (Tuesday) 446,816 bags (3.25-month low)
Brazil April green coffee exports 2.76 million bags (-1.3% y/y)

ICE coffee inventories have generally declined over the past two months, offering some support to prices.

ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 before recovering slightly to 3,968 lots last Friday.

ICE arabica inventories dropped to a three and a quarter month low of 446,816 bags on Tuesday.

Brazilian export data also provided support. Cecafe reported on May 12 that Brazil’s April green coffee exports declined 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags.

Disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have increased shipping costs, insurance premiums, fertilizer expenses, and fuel prices, tightening global coffee supply chains.

Global Production Outlook

The International Coffee Organization reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3 percent year on year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projects global coffee production for 2025/26 will rise 2 percent to a record 178.848 million bags.

The report forecasts arabica production declining 4.7 percent to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production increases 10.9 percent to 83.333 million bags. FAS estimates Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production at 63 million bags, down 3.1 percent, while Vietnam’s output is expected to rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast to decline 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why did coffee prices rise on Tuesday?

Prices rose due to dry conditions in Vietnam threatening robusta cherry development and potential El Niño risks in Brazil that could delay flowering rains.

2. How much did robusta and arabica gain?

July robusta gained 1.82 percent, while July arabica rose 0.61 percent.

3. What is the El Niño risk for Brazil?

El Niño could delay September-October rains, the critical flowering period for coffee trees, potentially hurting the 2026/27 crop.

4. How much did Vietnam’s coffee exports increase?

Exports rose 15.8 percent in January-April 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.

5. What happened to ICE coffee inventories?

Robusta inventories recovered to 3,968 lots, while arabica inventories fell to a 3.25-month low of 446,816 bags.

6. What is the global production forecast for 2025/26?

USDA projects record production of 178.848 million bags, with arabica down 4.7% and robusta up 10.9%.

Qahwa World – Based on Barchart commodity data.
Published: May 27, 2026

Brazil Coffee Production to Hit Record 66.7 Million Bags in 2026

Author: Qahwa World – Brasília
Source: National Supply Company of Brazil (Conab), Cecafé, MDIC
Date: May 26, 2026This update covers expectations for a Brazil coffee production 2026 record, based on the latest reports and forecasts.

Brazil Coffee Output to Hit Record 66.7 Million Bags in 2026

Executive Summary

  • Brazil’s coffee production for the 2026 harvest is forecast at 66.7 million 60 kg bags, an 18% increase over 2025 and a new record, surpassing the 2020 harvest of 63.08 million bags.
  • Arabica production is expected to reach 45.8 million bags (+28%), while Robusta (Conilon) is forecast at 20.9 million bags (+0.8%).
  • Total planted area rises 3.9% to 2.34 million hectares, with national average productivity projected at 34.4 bags per hectare (+13%).
  • Minas Gerais, the largest producer, is forecast at 33.4 million bags (+29.8%). Espírito Santo follows with 18 million bags (+3%).
  • Brazil exported 11.5 million bags from January to April 2026, down 22.5% year-on-year due to low stocks, but April exports jumped 11.2% to 4.27 million bags, signaling recovery with the new harvest.
  • The USDA projects world production for 2025/26 at 178.8 million bags (+2%), with global demand rising 1.3% to 173.9 million bags, keeping prices elevated.

The National Supply Company of Brazil (Conab) released its second harvest survey on May 21, 2026, forecasting a record coffee production of 66.7 million 60 kg bags for the 2026 crop year, an 18% increase over the previous season.

If confirmed, this will be the largest harvest in Conab’s historical series, surpassing the 2020 record of 63.08 million bags.

The positive biennial cycle (higher production year for Arabica), the entry of new areas into production, and favorable weather conditions are the main drivers of this growth.

The total coffee area is expected to increase by 3.9% to 2.34 million hectares, comprising 1.94 million hectares of productive fields and 401,700 hectares of young plantations. National average productivity is projected to recover by 13% to 34.4 bags per hectare.

Arabica and Robusta Production

Arabica coffee production is forecast at 45.8 million bags, a 28% increase over 2025. This would be the third-highest Arabica harvest on record, behind only 2020 and 2018.

The expansion is driven by the positive biennial cycle, a larger area under production, and favorable weather conditions, particularly good rainfall distribution during the flowering period.

Robusta (Conilon) production is expected to reach 20.9 million bags, a modest 0.8% increase. While the harvested area is projected to grow to 388,220 hectares, average yields are estimated to drop 3.5% to 53.9 bags per hectare.

This decline reflects the high yields achieved in 2025 (a natural off-year for Robusta’s biennial cycle is less pronounced) and below-average temperatures in Espírito Santo during the production cycle, which affected plant physiology.

Production by State

Minas Gerais, the country’s largest coffee producer, is forecast to harvest 33.4 million bags (combining both species), a 29.8% increase over 2025.

This result is attributed to the positive biennial cycle combined with better rainfall distribution, especially in the months preceding flowering, as well as favorable weather through March, which provided good grain formation.

Espírito Santo, the second-largest producer, is expected to harvest 18 million bags, a 3% increase. Arabica production in the state is projected to rise 27.9% to 4.4 million bags, benefiting from the high biennial cycle.

However, Conilon production is forecast at 13.6 million bags, a 4.2% decrease due to the record-high performance in 2025 and below-average temperatures.

Bahia is expected to produce 4.7 million bags (+5.9%), supported by consistent weather, increased producer investment, and new areas entering production. São Paulo is forecast at 5.9 million bags (+24.6%), where only Arabica is grown. Rondônia is expected to produce 2.8 million bags (+19.4%), driven by the renewal of genetic material with more productive clonal plants and favorable weather.

Table 1: Brazil Coffee Production Forecast by State (2026, million 60 kg bags)

State 2026 Production (million bags) Change vs 2025 Main species
Minas Gerais 33.4 +29.8% Arabica
Espírito Santo 18.0 +3.0% Robusta (Conilon)
São Paulo 5.9 +24.6% Arabica
Bahia 4.7 +5.9% Both
Rondônia 2.8 +19.4% Robusta

Exports: April Recovery Signals New Harvest

According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), Brazil exported 4.27 million 60 kg bags in April 2026, an 11.2% increase compared to April 2025 (3.84 million bags). This was the first monthly increase in 2026, indicating the beginning of an export recovery as the new harvest enters the market.

“The rise in April reflects the start of the new harvest season in Brazil, which contributed to increased coffee availability for export,” said Horacio Miranda, analyst at hEDGEpoint. This upward trend supports Cecafé’s expectations of higher exports in the second half of the year.

In contrast, total exports from January to April 2026 reached 11.6 million bags, a 16.1% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. Export revenue for the first four months totaled $4.49 billion, down 14.4% year-on-year, according to MDIC data.

The decline in early 2026 reflects low domestic stocks resulting from limited production in previous years and strong export demand.

The main destinations in April were Germany, the United States, Italy, Belgium, and Japan.

Table 2: Brazil Monthly Coffee Exports (million 60 kg bags)

Month 2024 (million bags) 2025 (million bags) 2026 (million bags) Change (Apr 2026 vs Apr 2025)
January 3.2 3.1 2.9
February 2.8 2.9 2.4
March 3.0 3.2 2.6
April 3.4 3.84 4.27 +11.2%

Global Market Outlook

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts world coffee production for the 2025/26 cycle at 178.8 million 60 kg bags, a 2% increase over the previous cycle.

Despite the production increase, no significant price reductions are expected due to low carryover stocks from the previous cycle and a projected 1.3% increase in global demand to 173.9 million bags.

Brazil’s record harvest will play a major role in replenishing global stocks and meeting rising demand, particularly for high-quality Arabica beans.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will Brazil produce in 2026?

Brazil is forecast to produce 66.7 million 60 kg bags, an 18% increase over 2025, setting a new record.

What is driving the production increase?

The positive biennial cycle (high-yield year for Arabica), expansion of planted area (+3.9%), and favorable weather conditions, especially good rainfall distribution.

Which Brazilian state produces the most coffee?

Minas Gerais is the largest producer, forecast at 33.4 million bags, a 29.8% increase.

How are Brazil’s coffee exports performing?

April exports jumped 11.2% to 4.27 million bags, signaling recovery with the new harvest. However, January-April exports were down 16.1% due to low stocks.

What is the global coffee market outlook?

USDA projects world production at 178.8 million bags (+2%) and demand at 173.9 million bags (+1.3%), keeping prices elevated due to low stocks.


Author: Qahwa World – Brasília | Source: Conab, Cecafé, MDIC, USDA | Date: May 26, 2026

El Salvador Coffee Output Falls 7.5% to 542,000 Bags in 2026

Author: Qahwa World – San Salvador
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report ES2026-0004
Date: April 20, 2026

El Salvador Coffee Output Falls 7.5% to 542,000 Bags in 2026

Executive Summary

  • El Salvador coffee production for 2026/2027 is forecast at 542,000 60 kg bags, a 7.5% decrease from the revised 2025/2026 estimate of 586,000 bags.
  • The decline is driven by expected adverse weather from the El Niño phenomenon during flowering and harvest periods.
  • Planted area remains stable at 118,000 hectares, with no significant expansion due to climate vulnerability and limited credit access.
  • Exports are forecast at 543,000 bags in 2026/2027, slightly up from 535,000 bags. The United States remains the largest market with 50% share.
  • Domestic consumption reaches 339,000 bags, driven by a tourism boom and expanding coffee shop culture. Soluble coffee accounts for 88% of consumption.
  • Labor shortages from rural‑to‑urban migration continue to limit pruning, renovation, and harvesting activities.
  • Government programs focus on smallholders (less than 15% of area), but a large‑scale renovation plan remains unfunded.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service office in San Salvador estimates El Salvador coffee production for marketing year 2025/2026 at 586,000 60 kg bags.

For 2026/2027, production is forecast to fall to 542,000 bags, a 7.5 percent decrease, primarily due to the expected impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon during flowering and harvest periods.

The 2025/2026 crop was already affected by torrential rains in December 2025, which caused substantial berry drop at peak ripeness and dried out remaining berries, reducing both yields and bean quality during milling.

Planted area has remained stable at approximately 118,000 hectares across the past two marketing years and is expected to hold steady through 2026/2027.

Stagnation is largely attributed to climate vulnerability and limited access to credit, as private banks view coffee farming as a high‑risk investment and are reluctant to lend.

Faced with low profitability, many coffee farmers have transitioned to alternative crops such as cocoa and white corn.

Others have sold their land to real estate developers to cover debts. The government continues distributing new coffee seedlings, primarily to small‑scale farmers who represent about 15 percent of total coffee area, but without adequate financing many seedlings remain unplanted or fail to survive.

Producer Structure and Value‑Added Coffee

Smallest coffee producers (0‑3.5 hectares) represent most producers but account for a limited share of harvested area, which is more heavily concentrated among larger farms.

Value‑added production, including gourmet, specialty, and fair‑trade coffees, continues to generate additional income for a small but expanding group targeting niche markets.

These farmers focus on micro‑lot (5‑100 bags) and nano‑lot (fewer than 5 bags) sales, catering to specialty coffee buyers in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

In 2025, El Salvador held its annual Cup of Excellence competition, incorporating virtual cupping protocols for international judging. Geisha and Pacamara varieties dominated, with top‑scoring lots achieving ratings in the 90‑point range.

Inputs, Labor Shortages and Yields

The government operates a fungicide and biofertilizer distribution program primarily targeting small coffee farmers (with less than 7 hectares) to help manage coffee leaf rust outbreaks.

However, most producers do not benefit from this initiative and face limited access to financing for pest control and soil nutrition.

Seedling distribution includes varieties such as Cuscatleco, Marsellesa, Pacas, Pacamara, Sarchimor, and Anacafe 14.

A critical challenge is the continued shortage of agricultural labor. Migration to urban areas, driven by demand for construction labor, has reduced the rural workforce, leaving many farms without sufficient labor for pruning, weeding, fertilizer and pesticide application, and berry harvesting.

This scarcity undermines cultural practices and harvesting, negatively impacting productivity.

National coffee yields remain low, averaging 4.97 60 kg bags per hectare in 2025/2026. This underperformance is largely due to insufficient investment in a comprehensive renovation program. Current efforts focus primarily on small landholders (about 15 percent of planted area), limiting overall impact.

El Salvador is among the region’s most climate‑vulnerable countries, facing recurrent droughts and floods that disrupt flowering and cherry development, while also creating favorable conditions for pests and diseases such as coffee leaf rust, anthracnose, and coffee berry borer.

Domestic Consumption

Domestic coffee consumption for 2025/2026 is projected at 332,000 60 kg bags (green bean equivalent).

Increased international and local tourism due to improved security has boosted consumption.

Most of this consumption remains lower‑cost soluble coffee, largely imported from Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, and Nicaragua, alongside domestic brands such as Coscafe and D’Cafe.

Soluble coffee accounts for an estimated 292,000 bags, while roasted and ground coffee totals 40,000 bags.

For 2026/2027, consumption is expected to increase by 2 percent to 339,000 bags, driven by a surge in tourism.

In calendar year 2025, El Salvador recorded the world’s second‑highest percentage increase in tourism.

Coffee shop culture continues to expand, with new establishments in shopping malls and commercial centers. International chains such as Juan Valdez, Starbucks, and McCafe are growing alongside local brands like Viva Espresso and The Coffee Cup.

Retail demand for premium local varieties including Bourbon, Pacas, Pacamara, and Geisha continues to rise. Notably, El Salvador’s cafe Alquimia achieved 3rd place in the 2026 World Coffee Bar competition.

Despite this momentum, consumers continue to favor soluble coffee due to its affordability and convenience.

Limited marketing for higher‑quality roasted beans and price sensitivity sustain this preference.

The Salvadoran Coffee Institute (SCI) continues efforts to promote premium domestic coffee through initiatives such as National Pacamara Coffee Day and participation in international events like the Specialty Coffee Expo.

Exports and Key Markets

Coffee exports for 2025/2026 are estimated at 535,100 60 kg bags, a 12.6 percent increase from the previous year, driven by farmers taking advantage of high international prices and selling off accumulated stocks.

Exports are forecast to continue growing to 543,000 bags in 2026/2027, as prices are expected to remain high throughout the harvesting period.

The United States remains the largest export destination, accounting for approximately 268,570 bags, or 50 percent of total exports.

Belgium has emerged as the second‑largest destination with about 11 percent. Other key markets include Italy, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Australia.

Premium prices for gourmet and specialty coffees continue to drive export incentives.

At the Cup of Excellence and other promotional events, top‑quality Salvadoran coffees are sold through global electronic auctions, often commanding prices $100‑$300 per hundredweight above spot market “Contract C” prices.

Table 1: El Salvador Coffee Exports (1,000 60 kg bags)

Destination 2025/2026 2026/2027 Share (2025/26)
United States 268.6 272.6 50.2%
Belgium 61.0 61.9 11.4%
Canada 26.8 27.2 5.0%
Italy 23.0 23.3 4.3%
Germany 22.5 22.8 4.2%
Japan 20.0 20.1 3.7%
Others 113.2 115.1 21.2%
Total 535.1 543.2 100%

Certification programs including Starbucks Café Practices, Fair Trade, UTZ, and coffee‑related geographical indications (GIs) are gaining traction.

SCI, in collaboration with six coffee regions, has established GIs for coffee produced in those areas. Certified coffee generally commands higher prices.

SCI has also trained local cuppers to obtain “Q” grade certification. Through Starbucks Café Practices, Salvadoran farmers can sell their coffee at prices roughly $50 above international “Contract C” prices. In 2024, NESCAFE announced plans to build a logistics facility to source and sell local coffee.

Imports and Stocks

In 2025/2026, Mexico surpassed Brazil as the main supplier of soluble coffee to El Salvador, with an expected 110,128 60 kg bags. Brazil is forecast to supply 101,915 bags, Colombia 18,161 bags, and the United States 6,750 bags of roasted and soluble coffee.

Total coffee imports are projected at 270,200 bags in 2025/2026 and 272,100 bags in 2026/2027, driven by a tourism boom and expansion of retail outlets and coffee bars.

Of the 2026/2027 total, 262,000 bags will be soluble coffee and 10,000 bags roasted coffee. Coffee stocks are estimated at 158,000 bags in 2025/2026, as farmers held back sales anticipating higher prices due to harvest delays and logistics issues at Port Acajutla. Stocks are forecast to decrease to 79,000 bags in 2026/2027 as producers capitalize on high prices.

Policy and Structural Challenges

The Salvadoran Coffee Institute (SCI) has implemented a pest monitoring program to help farmers manage coffee rust before severe damage occurs. Efforts have focused on renovating approximately 500 hectares in the northern coffee belt, adding two coffee quality control labs, and investing in molecular biology and somatic embryogenesis equipment.

However, government support primarily targets small farmers with less than 3.5 hectares, who represent less than 15 percent of total planted area.

A more effective solution would be a large‑scale replanting initiative focusing on medium‑sized farms that account for about 37 percent of area.

Many coffee trees are now over 25 years old and have surpassed their productive lifespan. Each year, over 7 million plants must be replaced to account for natural mortality.

According to the Salvadoran Coffee Association, approximately 30 million high‑quality, rust‑resistant plants are needed annually for the next 10 years to fully renovate the country’s coffee areas.

The sector’s challenges have led to a decline in jobs in coffee‑producing regions, contributing to rural migration.

For every 100,000‑quintal drop in coffee production (about 45,000 tons), an estimated 10,000 jobs are lost.

Additionally, more coffee farms are being abandoned or converted to basic grain production, exacerbating environmental challenges by reducing forestation and impairing water retention.

Financial challenges persist, with farmers still repaying debts under the Coffee Trust (FICAFE) program, established in 2001.

A grace period on capital payments has been extended through the end of 2026, but the sector remains under pressure.

Private banks are unwilling to offer loans due to high default risk driven by price volatility and diminishing yields.

Coffee farmers also face high processing costs, with mills currently charging around $100 per hundredweight of green bean equivalent to prepare coffee for export.

In 2019, the government proposed the Café‑Proyecto País program aimed at unifying coffee associations and developing a sustainability strategy, but lack of funding has delayed implementation.

In April 2021, a coffee rescue program was announced to restructure approximately $240 million in sector debt, create a coffee research institute, renovate 35,000 hectares, and promote local consumption, but fiscal constraints have delayed progress.

In January 2021, the government secured a $45 million loan from the Inter‑American Development Bank (IDB) to assist smallholder farmers through technical assistance and preferential loans, which also helped establish the Salvadoran Coffee Research Institute. However, much work remains.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will El Salvador produce in 2026/2027?

Production is forecast at 542,000 60 kg bags, a 7.5% decrease from the previous year, mainly due to El Niño.

What is the main export market for Salvadoran coffee?

The United States is the largest market, accounting for 50% of total exports, followed by Belgium (11%).

What are the biggest challenges facing El Salvador’s coffee sector?

Climate vulnerability (El Niño), labor shortages from rural migration, high input costs, limited credit access, and aging coffee trees.

How has domestic coffee consumption changed?

Consumption reached 332,000 bags in 2025/2026, driven by a tourism boom and expanding coffee shops. Soluble coffee accounts for 88% of consumption.

What is the average coffee yield in El Salvador?

Average yields are low at 4.97 60 kg bags per hectare, far below regional averages, due to lack of renovation investment.

What government programs support coffee farmers?

Programs include fungicide and biofertilizer distribution for smallholders, seedling distribution, and a $45 million IDB loan for technical assistance, but large‑scale renovation remains unfunded.


Author: Qahwa World – San Salvador | Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report ES2026-0004 | Date: April 20, 2026