Coffee Prices Surge 16% on Brazil Harvest Delays and Weather Risks

Posted on July 6, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: July 6, 2026

Coffee Prices Surge 16% on Brazil Harvest Delays and Weather Risks

Key Takeaways:

Arabica prices jumped 16.19% to a 5.5-month high; robusta rose 8.83% to a 5-month high.
Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was only 52% complete as of July 1, behind last year’s 60% and the 55% five-year average.
Rain is forecast for mid-July in Brazil, which could be detrimental to coffee crops.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-month low of 366,756 bags.
El Niño concerns are supporting prices, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y), which remains a bearish factor.
Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.3% in the first half of 2026, pressuring robusta prices.

Coffee prices catapulted higher on Monday, with arabica posting a 5.5-month high and robusta reaching a 5-month high amid a delayed coffee harvest in Brazil. September arabica futures closed up 16.19%, while September robusta futures gained 8.83%.

According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 52% complete as of July 1, behind last year’s comparable level of 60% and the five-year average of 55%.

Harvest Delay and Rain Forecast Drive Prices Higher

Gains in coffee accelerated on Monday after meteorologist Rural Clima said rain is forecast for a large part of Brazil in the middle of July, which could be “detrimental” to crops, including coffee. Also, Monday’s rally in the Brazilian real to a two-week high against the dollar discourages coffee sales from Brazil’s producers and is supportive for prices.

Coffee prices have moved sharply higher over the past month as heavy rains in Brazil disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered coffee crop quality. Brazilian coffee farmers are also holding back on sales, hoping prices will rise and bracing for the potential impact of this year’s El Niño weather event.

Exchange Inventories at 27-Month Lows

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months, supporting coffee prices. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-month low of 366,756 bags on Monday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 but have since risen to a three-month high of 4,109 lots last Friday.

Indicator	Value	Significance
September Arabica Futures	+16.19%	5.5-month high
September Robusta Futures	+8.83%	5-month high
ICE Arabica Stocks	366,756 bags	27-month low
Brazil Harvest Completion	52%	Below last year’s 60%
ICE Robusta Stocks	4,109 lots	3-month high

El Niño Concerns Support Prices and Threaten Next Year’s Crop

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year that could be the strongest on record. On June 10, the Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño pattern had formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Bearish Factors: Record Crop Forecasts and Vietnam Exports

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously.

In Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, coffee exports in the first half of 2026 rose 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.

Indicator	2025/26	Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production	178.85 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica Production	95.52 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta Production	83.33 million bags	+10.9%
Ending Stocks	20.15 million bags	-5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About the Coffee Price Surge

Q: Why did coffee prices surge 16%?

A: Due to Brazil’s delayed harvest (52% complete vs. 60% last year), rain forecasts for mid-July that could damage crops, and inventories falling to 27-month lows.

Q: How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 366,756 bags (a 27-month low), while robusta stocks rose to 4,109 lots (a 3-month high).

Q: Will prices continue to rise?

A: It depends on weather developments in Brazil, the severity of any crop damage, El Niño developments, and inventory trends.

The coffee market faces heightened uncertainty. While large surplus expectations remain in the background, delayed harvests, weather risks, falling inventories, and El Niño concerns are reshaping the balance. Investors are closely watching weather developments in Brazil and inventory trends to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: July 6, 2026

Dollar Strength Weighs on Coffee Prices

Posted on June 19, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 19, 2026

Dollar Strength Weighs on Coffee Prices, Capping Gains Despite Brazil Harvest Delays

Key Takeaways:

Arabica prices closed down 0.99% as the dollar index surged to a 13-month high, triggering long liquidation in coffee futures.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-month low of 394,267 bags.
Rainfall expected in Brazil could delay the harvest, but next week may bring dry weather to key coffee regions.
El Niño concerns support prices, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year.
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y).
Vietnam’s exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, with production expected at 29.4 million bags (+6%).
Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to support prices through higher shipping and insurance costs.

Coffee prices closed mixed on Thursday, giving up early gains as the dollar index surged to a 13-month high, triggering a wave of long liquidation in coffee futures. July arabica futures fell 0.99%, while July robusta futures edged up 0.14%.

Prices had rallied sharply over the past week, reaching five-week highs amid concerns that persistent rain in Brazil would delay the coffee harvest. However, gains faded after meteorologist Climatempo said Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions are expected to see mostly dry weather next week.

Dollar and Weather Determine Price Direction

The dollar index rose to a 13-month high, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and triggering selling in coffee futures. On the weather front, forecaster Vaisala expects moderate to heavy rainfall across Brazil’s coffee-growing regions this week, which could delay the harvest and reduce immediate supplies. However, Climatempo’s forecast of dry weather next week eased some concerns.

Exchange Inventories at Multi-Year Lows

ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to 394,267 bags on Thursday, the lowest level in 27 months. This decline in inventories supports prices and reflects tight physical supplies. In contrast, ICE robusta inventories jumped from a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 to 4,032 lots, the highest level in 2.25 months.

Indicator	Value	Significance
July Arabica Futures	-0.99%	Decline pressured by dollar strength
July Robusta Futures	+0.14%	Slight gain
ICE Arabica Stocks	394,267 bags	27-month low
ICE Robusta Stocks	4,032 lots	2.25-month high
Dollar Index	13-month high	Pressure on commodities

El Niño Concerns Support Prices and Threaten Next Year’s Crop

Concerns over the impact of an El Niño weather pattern on Brazil’s next coffee crop continue to support prices. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño could delay the arrival of seasonal rains during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September and October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could be the strongest on record. The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed that El Niño conditions have formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.

Large Crops Continue to Weigh on the Market

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May to 2.73 million bags.

Vietnam Expands Exports and Production, Adding Pressure

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continues to increase exports, adding further pressure on prices. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office, coffee exports during the first five months of 2026 reached 922,000 metric tons, up 7.9% from the same period a year earlier. Full-year exports in 2025 rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Continue to Support Prices

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global coffee supplies and support prices. The closure has tightened supplies by raising shipping rates, insurance premiums, fuel costs, and fertilizer prices, increasing costs for importers and roasters. This geopolitical factor adds an additional layer of support to prices amid continued instability in the region.

Global Production Outlook and Inventories Point to a Delicate Balance

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports during the current marketing year (October–September) totaled 138.66 million bags, slightly down 0.3% from the previous year. Meanwhile, the USDA’s FAS projects global coffee production in 2025/26 to reach a record 178.85 million bags, up 2% year-on-year. The forecast includes arabica production of 95.52 million bags (-4.7%) and robusta production of 83.33 million bags (+10.9%). The USDA estimates Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop at 63 million bags, down 3.1% from the previous year, while Vietnam’s production is expected to rise 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are forecast to decline by 5.4% to 20.15 million bags in 2025/26, compared with 21.31 million bags in 2024/25.

Indicator	2025/26	Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production	178.85 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica Production	95.52 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta Production	83.33 million bags	+10.9%
Ending Stocks	20.15 million bags	-5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why did arabica prices decline despite concerns over Brazil harvest delays?

A: Due to the dollar index surging to a 13-month high, triggering long liquidation in futures contracts, combined with forecasts of dry weather in Brazil next week.

Q: How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 394,267 bags (a 27-month low), while robusta stocks jumped to 4,032 lots (a 2.25-month high).

Q: Will prices continue to be volatile?

A: Yes, with continued tension between supportive factors (harvest delays, El Niño concerns, falling inventories) and bearish factors (dollar strength, record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production).

The coffee market remains caught between immediate bullish factors (harvest delays, falling inventories, El Niño risks) and structural bearish factors (dollar strength, record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production and exports). The dollar’s surge to a 13-month high adds an additional layer of complexity, making commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. All eyes remain on weather developments in Brazil and dollar movements to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

Publication date: June 19, 2026

Coffee Prices Continue to Rise Supported by Brazil Harvest Delays and El Niño Risks

Posted on June 17, 2026 by Qahwa World

Source: Barchart – Adapted by Qahwa World |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 17, 2026

Coffee Prices Continue to Rise Supported by Brazil Harvest Delays and El Niño Risks

Key Takeaways:

Arabica prices rose 2.85% to a two-week high, robusta gained 1.36% to a five-week high.
Rainfall expected in Brazil may delay the harvest and reduce immediate supplies.
ICE arabica inventories fell to 397,242 bags – the lowest level in seven months.
El Niño risks threaten the critical flowering period in Brazil (September-October) and could impact the 2026/27 crop.
USDA forecasts a record Brazil 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags (+14% y/y).
Vietnam’s exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026, with production expected at 29.4 million bags (+6%).
Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are increasing transport costs and supporting prices.

Coffee prices continued to rise on Tuesday, supported by concerns that persistent rainfall in Brazil could delay the country’s coffee harvest. July Arabica futures gained 2.85%, while July Robusta futures advanced 1.36%. Arabica reached a two-week high, while robusta climbed to its highest level in five weeks.

The rally comes despite expectations of a record Brazilian crop, as the market appears to be focusing on immediate supply-side factors, including weather and declining inventories.

Harvest Delays Raise Supply Concerns

Weather remains a key driver of the market. Forecasting company Vaisala expects moderate to heavy rainfall across Brazil’s major coffee-growing regions this week, potentially slowing harvesting activities and delaying supplies reaching the market. Further supporting prices, ICE-monitored arabica inventories have been trending lower for the past three months. Arabica stocks fell to 397,242 bags on Monday, the lowest level in nearly seven months. Robusta inventories, however, have recovered from a two-year low of 3,631 lots recorded on May 15, rising to 3,991 lots.

Indicator	Value	Change
July Arabica Futures	+2.85%	Two-week high
July Robusta Futures	+1.36%	Five-week high
ICE Arabica Stocks	397,242 bags	Seven-month low
ICE Robusta Stocks	3,991 lots	Recovered from two-year low

El Niño Risks Loom Over Next Year’s Crop

Market participants are also monitoring the development of an El Niño weather pattern, which could affect Brazil’s next coffee crop. Coffee trader Volcafe has warned that El Niño could delay the arrival of seasonal rains during Brazil’s critical flowering period in September and October, potentially impacting the 2026/27 harvest. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a strong El Niño event this year. Meanwhile, the Japan Meteorological Agency has confirmed that El Niño conditions have developed across the equatorial Pacific. Such weather patterns can trigger droughts, floods, and temperature extremes that may disrupt coffee production in both South America and Asia.

Large Crops Continue to Weigh on the Market Despite Temporary Gains

Despite recent gains, the broader market remains under pressure from expectations of abundant coffee supplies. Earlier this month, arabica futures fell to a 19-month low, while robusta touched a two-month low after forecasts pointed to a record Brazilian crop. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous year. Rabobank also increased its forecast for the global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7 million bags previously. In addition, Cecafé reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in May to 2.73 million bags.

Indicator	Value	Change
USDA Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast	71.9 million bags	+14%
Rabobank Global Arabica Surplus	9.5 million bags	(was 7 million)
Brazil Green Coffee Exports (May)	2.73 million bags	+4.2%

Vietnam Expands Exports and Production, Adding Pressure on Prices

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continues to increase exports, adding further pressure to prices. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office, coffee exports during the first five months of 2026 reached 922,000 metric tons, up 7.9% from the same period a year earlier. Full-year exports in 2025 rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags. This increase in production and exports adds further supply to the global market, particularly in the robusta segment.

Shipping Disruptions Support Prices

Geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes have also contributed to market strength. Disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have increased freight rates, insurance premiums, fuel costs, and fertilizer prices, raising costs throughout the coffee supply chain. This geopolitical factor adds an additional layer of support to prices, as these higher costs are passed on to importers, roasters, and ultimately consumers.

Global Production Outlook and Inventories Point to a Delicate Balance

Indicator	2025/26	Year-on-Year Change
Global Coffee Production	178.85 million bags	+2.0%
Arabica Production	95.52 million bags	-4.7%
Robusta Production	83.33 million bags	+10.9%
Ending Stocks	20.15 million bags	-5.4%

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why are coffee prices rising despite expectations of a record crop in Brazil?

A: Because of immediate factors such as harvest delays due to rain, inventories falling to a seven-month low, and concerns about El Niño impact on next year’s crop.

Q: How does El Niño affect coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay flowering rains in Brazil during September-October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop and supporting higher prices.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports influence prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase robusta supply, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Q: What is the current level of exchange inventories?

A: ICE arabica stocks fell to 397,242 bags (a seven-month low), while robusta stocks rose to 3,991 lots from a two-year low.

Q: Will prices continue to rise?

A: It depends on weather developments in Brazil, El Niño risks, ongoing shipping disruptions, and the scale of the expected surplus from the record crop.

The coffee market remains caught between immediate bullish factors (harvest delays, falling inventories, El Niño risks, shipping disruptions) and structural bearish factors (record crop expectations, rising Vietnamese production and exports). All eyes remain on weather developments in Brazil to determine the next direction for prices.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report.

Publication date: June 17, 2026