ICO Coffee Market Report April 2026: Global prices fall 2.7% as supply outlook outweighs Strait of Hormuz disruption

Author: Qahwa World – London

Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, April 2026
Report number: N/A (monthly market report)
Date: May 2026

ICO Composite Indicator Price averages 266.24 US cents/lb; Robusta drops 6.9% (fifth consecutive monthly decline); certified stocks remain at historically low levels.

LONDON, May 2026 — The International Coffee Organization (ICO) Composite Indicator Price (I‑CIP) averaged 266.24 US cents per pound in April 2026, a 2.7 percent decrease from March 2026. The market balanced two opposing forces: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since 4 March, which pushed crude oil prices up by 55.8 percent and shipping freight costs by 43.6 percent between 27 February and 30 April, against a continued improvement in the global supply outlook. On balance, the supply‑side factor outweighed the geopolitical disruption, erasing most of March’s gains.

All coffee groups recorded losses in April, with Robusta suffering the steepest decline. The ICO report highlights that since the end of coffee year 2024/25, Robusta prices have dropped 21.9 percent, while the I‑CIP fell 18.0 percent and the three Arabica groups declined by an average of 16.9 percent. The sharper downturn in Robusta is attributed to improved supply availability — Robusta green bean exports rose 16.7 percent in the first half of 2025/26 — and a 4.5 percentage point increase in its share of total green exports.

Key takeaway: The market has largely priced in the war, while fundamentals (supply and demand) are now driving prices downward. The I‑CIP dropped 2.7% in April, compared to a 2.3% increase in March when geopolitical fears dominated.

Price performance by group and futures markets

The Colombian Milds and Other Milds both contracted by 0.9 percent in April, averaging 334.56 and 331.32 US cents/lb respectively. Brazilian Naturals fell 2.1 percent to 313.76 US cents/lb. Robusta declined 6.9 percent to 164.64 US cents/lb. At the futures level, the London ICE Robusta market dropped 7.0 percent to 150.65 US cents/lb, while New York ICE Arabica fell 1.9 percent to 284.63 US cents/lb.

IndicatorMarch 2026April 2026ChangeICO Composite (US cents/lb)273.70266.29-2.7%Colombian Milds337.45334.52-0.9%Other Milds334.34331.52-0.8%Brazilian Naturals320.51314.29-1.9%Robustas176.77164.17-7.1%New York ICE (Arabica)290.18284.75-1.9%London ICE (Robusta)161.91150.19-7.2%

Strait of Hormuz blockage: a lasting impact on input costs

Since 4 March 2026, shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz have remained disrupted. Around one‑fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through this corridor. Between 27 February and 30 April, Brent crude rose from US$73.23/bbl to US$114.09/bbl, an increase of 55.8 percent. The Containerized Freight Index climbed from 1,331.1 to 1,911.4 points, a 43.6 percent rise. Fertilizer urea price jumped 47 percent from US$465/t to US$682/t over the same two‑month period. The Gulf region is a major fertilizer producer; Qatar Fertiliser Company alone accounts for about 14 percent of global urea production. The ICO notes that the increase in urea prices will hit high‑input coffee origins most severely, especially producers who have not secured fertilizers in advance for the main nitrogen application period supporting flowering for the next harvest.

Global supply outlook improves – market forecasts point to larger crops

Throughout March and April, several market players released optimistic projections. On 18 March, Scaufina projected Brazil’s 2026/27 crop to be up 15.5 percent year‑on‑year. On 19 March, Marex Group projected a 14.3 percent increase. On 2 April, StoneX projected global 2026 production at 182.5 million bags, an increase of 9.6 percent over the previous year, and forecast world stocks to rise to 48.2 million bags from 38.3 million in 2025.

These fundamentals gained the upper hand in April, as the market appeared to have already factored in the war. The I‑CIP’s 2.7 percent decline reversed the 2.3 percent increase seen in March, when geopolitical shocks dominated.

Price differentials and arbitrage

The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential widened slightly from 3.12 to 3.34 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential grew 22.7 percent to 20.8 US cents/lb. The arbitrage between New York and London futures markets increased 4.5 percent to 133.99 US cents/lb in April, the second consecutive monthly increase. The arbitrage ratio (New York/London) stood at 1.89, above the historical average of 1.75 (January 2018 to May 2025). The ratio has remained above the historic average for 11 of the past 12 months, indicating a return to more typical arbitrage levels.

Volatility declines across all indicators

Intra‑day volatility of the I‑CIP averaged 9.0 percent in April, down 0.8 percentage points from March. Colombian Milds volatility fell to 8.5 percent, Other Milds to 8.8 percent, Brazilian Naturals to 9.7 percent, and Robustas to 10.7 percent. New York futures volatility decreased to 10.0 percent, London to 11.0 percent.

Certified stocks remain at historic lows

London certified Robusta stocks fell 5.5 percent month‑on‑month to 0.65 million bags in April. US certified Arabica stocks dropped 10.1 percent to 0.55 million bags. Stock levels have stabilized in the last six months but remain at historically very low levels. From January 2010 to December 2021, average total ICE stocks were 4.87 million bags. Since the end of 2021, total certified stocks have stayed below 3.0 million bags. Calculated as months of EU and US consumption, current stocks represent just 0.22 months’ worth, compared to an average of 0.91 months between 2010 and 2021.

Green bean exports: mixed performance by group

Global green bean exports in March 2026 rose 0.8 percent to 11.7 million bags. Robusta exports surged 24.0 percent to a record 5.52 million bags, driven by Vietnam (up 30.3 percent to 3.67 million bags) and supported by Brazil and India. Colombian Milds exports fell 33.8 percent to 0.88 million bags, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, as Colombia’s exports dropped 37.4 percent due to falling local supply. Other Milds exports edged up 0.9 percent to 2.59 million bags, led by Honduras (+19.3%). Brazilian Naturals exports declined 16.8 percent to 2.71 million bags, marking the 13th consecutive month of negative growth, driven primarily by Brazil.

Total Arabica exports fell 13.6 percent to 6.18 million bags in March 2026. As a result, Arabica’s share of total green bean exports for the first six months of 2025/26 fell to 59.6 percent from 64.5 percent a year earlier.

Coffee group March 2025 (million bags) March 2026 (million bags) Change
Robustas 4.45 5.52 +24.0%
Colombian Milds 1.33 0.88 -33.8%
Other Milds 2.57 2.59 +0.9%
Brazilian Naturals 3.26 2.71 -16.8%

Total exports by region (all forms of coffee)

Global exports of all forms of coffee increased 1.6 percent to 13.59 million bags in March 2026. Asia & Oceania led growth with a 13.1 percent rise to 5.82 million bags, driven by Vietnam’s 25.1 percent increase to 4.3 million bags – the country’s largest‑ever March export volume and second‑highest monthly volume on record. This was partly offset by Indonesia, whose exports fell an estimated 47.6 percent to 0.45 million bags.

Africa’s exports fell 14.7 percent to 1.4 million bags, led by Ethiopia (down 29.7% to 0.44 million bags). South America’s exports declined 8.3 percent to 4.07 million bags, with Colombia down 28.5 percent to 0.9 million bags – the fourth consecutive monthly downturn. The Caribbean, Mexico & Central America rose 7.1 percent to 2.3 million bags, led by Honduras (+19.3%).

Exports by form: soluble coffee up 6.6%

Green beans accounted for 85.23 percent of total exports in the first half of 2025/26, soluble coffee 14.21 percent, and roasted coffee 0.56 percent. Soluble coffee exports rose 6.6 percent to 1.82 million bags in March 2026, with Vietnam (0.56 million bags), Brazil (0.4 million), and India (0.28 million) as the largest shippers. Roasted bean exports increased 21.0 percent to 0.07 million bags.

Global supply/demand balance

According to ICO data, 2023/24 world production reached 177.5 million bags, up 5.2 percent from the previous year. Arabica production rose 4.5 percent to 102.1 million bags, Robusta 6.2 percent to 75.4 million bags. Consumption in 2023/24 was 175.1 million bags, up 1.4 percent, resulting in a positive balance of 2.44 million bags – the first surplus after three consecutive deficits.

Frequently Asked Questions

  • What was the ICO Composite Indicator Price in April 2026?
The I‑CIP averaged 266.24 US cents per pound, a 2.7 percent decrease from March 2026.
  • How much have Robusta prices fallen since the end of coffee year 2024/25?
Robusta prices have dropped 21.9 percent since the end of coffee year 2024/25, while the I‑CIP fell 18.0 percent and the three Arabica groups declined by an average of 16.9 percent.
  • How did the Strait of Hormuz closure affect shipping and fertilizer costs?
The Containerized Freight Index rose 43.6 percent and urea prices jumped 47 percent between 27 February and 30 April 2026.
  • What are market analysts forecasting for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop?
Scaufina projected a 15.5 percent increase, and Marex Group projected a 14.3 percent increase year‑on‑year.
  • How much green Robusta coffee was exported in March 2026?
Robusta green bean exports reached 5.52 million bags, a 24.0 percent increase from March 2025, the largest ever monthly volume on record.
  • What is the current level of certified stocks compared to historical averages?
Current certified stocks represent just 0.22 months of EU and US consumption, compared to an average of 0.91 months between 2010 and 2021.
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) – Coffee Market Report, April 2026 (published May 2026). All figures and analysis are strictly based on the original report. No external data has been added.

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Indonesian Coffee Output Drops 8% to 11.38 Million Bags

Author: Qahwa World – Jakarta
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Jakarta Office
Report Number: ID2026-0021
Date: May 15, 2026

Executive Summary
• Indonesian coffee production for MY 2026/27 is forecast at 11.38 million 60-kg bags, down 8% from the previous year.
• Robusta output falls to 10 million bags, a drop of 1 million bags, due to excessive rains in southern Sumatra and Central Java.
• Arabica production for 2025/26 is revised down to 1.37 million bags following Typhoon Sinyar floods in Aceh and North Sumatra.
• Farmgate prices: Robusta down 16% from 2025 peaks; Arabica down 14% since October 2025.
• Exports are forecast at 7 million bags in 2026/27, down 11% due to lower supplies and strong domestic demand.
• European imports of Indonesian coffee jumped 72% to 2.4 million bags in 2025/26.
• Domestic consumption is projected at 4.83 million bags, driven by soluble coffee and the kopi susu trend.
• Some Arabica plantations in Aceh may require 2-3 years to fully recover from flood damage.

1. Overview: Indonesia in the Global Coffee Market

Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coffee producer, after Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia, and ahead of Ethiopia and Uganda. Approximately 75 percent of Indonesian coffee production is exported. Robusta accounts for nearly 88 percent of total output, making Indonesia the largest Robusta producer in Asia and a key supplier to European and US markets.

According to the USDA FAS report from the Jakarta office, Indonesia’s coffee sector faces significant climate-related challenges. Excessive rainfall during the flowering and fruit development phases in late 2025 and early 2026 has severely damaged Robusta crops in southern Sumatra and Central Java. Meanwhile, Arabica-growing areas in Aceh and North Sumatra are still recovering from floods and landslides caused by Typhoon Sinyar in November 2025.

Key insight: Robusta dominates Indonesian coffee production at 88 percent. Smallholders farming 1-2 hectares represent about 98 percent of total coffee area, making the sector highly vulnerable to weather shocks and infrastructure disruptions.

2. Production Forecast: MY 2026/27

FAS Jakarta forecasts Indonesian coffee production for MY 2026/27 at approximately 11.38 million 60-kg bags (682,800 metric tons), comprising 1.38 million bags of Arabica (82,800 tons) and 10.00 million bags of Robusta (600,000 tons). This represents an 8 percent decline from the revised 2025/26 estimate of 12.37 million bags.

Table 1: Indonesian Coffee Production (million 60-kg bags)

Category 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Revised 2026/27 Forecast
Arabica 1.30 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.37 1.38
Robusta 9.30 10.50 6.80 9.30 11.00 10.00
Total 10.60 11.90 8.20 10.70 12.37 11.38

3. Climate Challenges: Rains and Typhoon Damage

The main driver of Indonesia’s production decline is abnormal rainfall during flowering and fruit development. In mid-2025, excessive rains disrupted Robusta flowering in the southern Sumatra highlands. In Central Java, farmers reported heavy rains that caused flowers to drop and pollen to wash away, interrupting pollination and reducing fruit set.

In Aceh and North Sumatra, Arabica areas continue to suffer from flooding caused by Typhoon Sinyar in late November 2025. As of April 2026, infrastructure recovery remains incomplete, keeping transport costs high. Several processing facilities and warehouses were also damaged. Some Arabica plantations may need 2-3 years to recover. The main harvest in Aceh, normally from October to November, was delayed into early 2026.

Looking ahead, Indonesia’s National Weather Agency (BMKG) projects that the 2026 dry season will be significantly drier and longer than average due to a weak El Niño expected to strengthen to moderate levels in the second half of 2026. In Sumatra, the dry season will begin in April-May 2026, starting in Aceh and North Sumatra, then spreading to Lampung and South Sumatra, peaking around August 2026. El Niño conditions typically increase drought risk, which can further disrupt flowering.

Table 2: Rainfall Impact on Key Regions (2025-2026)

Region Event Impact Recovery Timeline
Southern Sumatra Highlands Excessive rains (mid-2025) Disrupted Robusta flowering Lower yields in 2026/27
Central Java Heavy rains, pollen washout Poor fruit development Lower harvest expected
Aceh & North Sumatra Typhoon Sinyar floods (Nov 2025) Damaged Arabica farms, destroyed infrastructure 2-3 years

4. Yield Projections

For MY 2026/27, Robusta yields are expected to decline due to rainfall disruptions, though the report did not provide specific yield per hectare figures. Historically, Indonesian Robusta yields remain below one metric ton per hectare and vary significantly by region. Arabica yields in Aceh and North Sumatra are expected to stay low until infrastructure and farms recover.

Adoption of improved, higher-yielding seedlings remains limited because most farmers rely on locally sourced planting material. Government distribution of subsidized seedlings and farmer training programs also remain limited in geographic coverage.

5. Price Dynamics: Decline from 2025 Peaks

Farmgate and spot prices for both Robusta and Arabica have declined significantly from their 2025 highs. According to spot price data from Lampung (Robusta) and Medan (Arabica), prices have moderated due to improved global supply expectations and weaker demand from some roasteries.

Robusta spot prices in Lampung peaked above 104,000 IDR/kg in February 2025 but fell to around 66,661 IDR/kg by April 2026, a drop of roughly 36 percent from the peak. Year-on-year (April 2025 to April 2026), Robusta prices fell 32 percent. Compared to October 2025 (84,128 IDR/kg), the decline is about 21 percent.

Arabica spot prices in Medan peaked above 229,835 IDR/kg in November 2025 but fell to around 174,162 IDR/kg by April 2026, a drop of roughly 24 percent from the peak. Compared to October 2025 (219,802 IDR/kg), the decline is about 21 percent.

Table 3: Robusta Spot Prices in Lampung (IDR/kg) – Selected Months

Month 2024 2025 2026 Change (Oct 2025 to Apr 2026)
January 56,069 94,724 78,595 -21%
February 55,854 104,371 70,862
March 59,018 102,373 69,785
April 72,712 98,659 66,661

6. Export Outlook: Lower Supplies, Stronger European Demand

FAS forecasts green bean exports for 2026/27 at 7 million bags, down 11 percent from 2025/26, due to lower exportable supplies and continued strong domestic demand. Total exports (including roasted and soluble) are forecast at 8.05 million bags.

Despite the overall decline, shipments to European markets rose 72 percent to 2.4 million bags in 2025/26 compared to the previous year. This reflects renewed demand for Indonesian beans, particularly from Belgium and Germany, supported by recovered supplies, competitive pricing, and EUDR compliance readiness.

The United States remains among Indonesia’s top five destinations, with steady demand between 680,000 and 950,000 bags over the past five years. In 2025/26, shipments to the US ranked third at 797,000 bags. These shipments typically consist of 60-80 percent Arabica beans, mostly exported through the Port of Belawan in North Sumatra.

Table 4: Indonesian Green Bean Exports by Destination (1,000 60-kg bags, 2025/26)

Rank Destination Volume (1,000 bags) Share
1 Europe (total) 2,400 ~30%
2 United States 797 ~10%
3 Others ~3,800 ~60%

7. Trade Agreements and Policy Environment

Unlike India, Indonesia has no newly ratified free trade agreements specifically targeting coffee exports to Europe. However, the country continues to benefit from existing Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) facilities. Exporters have reported higher freight costs and shipping delays linked to the Middle East conflict in the last quarter of 2025/26, which affected some shipments.

Rupiah depreciation against the US dollar supported stronger demand toward the end of 2025/26. Prices for lower-grade Arabica strengthened through March 2026 as access improved, though transport costs reportedly doubled in affected areas.

8. Domestic Consumption: A Growing Market

FAS forecasts domestic consumption for 2026/27 at 4.83 million bags (289,800 metric tons), up 20,000 bags from the previous year, supported by continued demand from roasteries and processors. Local roasteries have faced squeezed margins as green bean prices rose since 2024, and weaker purchasing power in 2025/26 shifted some demand toward low- to medium-grade coffee. With green bean prices easing in early 2026, demand from roasteries should remain strong.

At the consumer level, low-priced coffee sold by street vendors remains popular among workers and low- to middle-income consumers. Coffee outlets in public venues serve higher-end consumers, including Gen-Z. Kopi susu (coffee with milk) remains a popular entry-level drink, widely available in coffee shops and ready-to-drink products.

Table 5: Indonesian Domestic Consumption (million 60-kg bags)

Category 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 Forecast
Roast & Ground Domestic 3.343 3.270 3.280
Soluble Domestic 1.530 1.540 1.550
Total Domestic Consumption 4.873 4.810 4.830

9. Long-Term Vision and Recovery Outlook

Indonesia has no publicly stated long-term production target comparable to India’s 2047 vision. However, the government and the Coffee Board of Indonesia (under the Ministry of Agriculture) have promoted sustainability programs and EUDR compliance support. The BMKG’s El Niño forecast for the second half of 2026 poses additional risks. Recovery for Arabica plantations in Aceh is expected to take 2-3 years, while Robusta areas may rebound in 2027/28 if normal rainfall returns.

10. Imports: Filling the Gap

FAS forecasts green bean imports for 2026/27 at 1.42 million bags (85,200 metric tons), up slightly from 1.415 million bags in 2025/26. Indonesian green bean imports are closely tied to production and local demand, jumping from around 230,000 bags in 2020/21 to a peak of 942,000 bags in 2023/24, then dropping to around 372,000 bags in 2025/26. The 2023/24 spike reflects weak domestic supply and strong demand for specialty beans and the growing ready-to-drink sector.

Green beans account for approximately 94 percent of total imports and are primarily sourced from Nicaragua, Vietnam, Brazil, and Kenya for processing and re-export.

11. Key Challenges Facing Indonesian Coffee Sector

  • Climate variability: Excessive rains during flowering (mid-2025) followed by El Niño drought (late 2026) create extreme weather shocks.
  • Infrastructure damage: Typhoon Sinyar destroyed roads, bridges, processing facilities, and warehouses in Aceh and North Sumatra. Recovery remains incomplete as of April 2026.
  • Smallholder vulnerability: 98 percent of coffee area is farmed by smallholders with limited access to credit, improved seedlings, or crop insurance.
  • Fertilizer costs: Rising input costs and fertilizer supply uncertainty continue to pressure farmer margins.
  • Freight disruptions: The Middle East conflict has increased shipping costs and caused delays, affecting export competitiveness.
  • Limited replanting programs: No major replanting or expansion programs have been implemented recently, leaving aging trees in place.

12. Opportunities

  • EUDR preparedness: Indonesian exporters have prepared for EU deforestation regulations, potentially gaining market share in Europe.
  • Growing domestic market: Rising coffee culture among Gen-Z and the popularity of kopi susu and ready-to-drink products.
  • Soluble coffee demand: Domestic soluble consumption is projected to remain strong at 1.55 million bags.
  • Rupiah depreciation: A weaker rupiah supports export competitiveness despite lower prices.
  • Recovery potential: Once infrastructure is rebuilt and rainfall normalizes, Indonesian Robusta production can rebound quickly.

Frequently Asked Questions

  • How much coffee will Indonesia produce in 2026/27?

According to the USDA FAS report, Indonesia is forecast to produce 11.38 million 60-kg bags (approximately 682,800 metric tons) in MY 2026/27, comprising 1.38 million bags of Arabica and 10.00 million bags of Robusta. This is an 8 percent decrease from the previous year.

  • Why is Robusta production expected to decline?

Robusta production is projected to fall by 1 million bags (to 10 million bags) due to excessive rains in mid-2025 that disrupted flowering in southern Sumatra highlands and heavy rains in Central Java that caused flowers to drop and pollen to wash away, interrupting pollination.

  • What happened to Arabica production in Aceh and North Sumatra?

Typhoon Sinyar in late November 2025 caused severe floods and landslides, damaging Arabica plantations, processing facilities, and infrastructure. Recovery is expected to take 2-3 years. The main harvest in Aceh was delayed into early 2026.

  • How have coffee prices changed in Indonesia?

Robusta spot prices in Lampung fell from a peak above 104,000 IDR/kg in February 2025 to around 66,661 IDR/kg in April 2026 (down 36% from peak). Arabica spot prices in Medan fell from above 229,835 IDR/kg in November 2025 to around 174,162 IDR/kg in April 2026 (down 24% from peak).

  • What are Indonesia’s main coffee export markets?

Europe is the largest destination, with shipments rising 72 percent to 2.4 million bags in 2025/26, led by Belgium and Germany. The United States ranks third at 797,000 bags. Other markets include Japan, Canada, and the Middle East.

  • How much coffee does Indonesia consume domestically?

Domestic consumption is forecast at 4.83 million bags in 2026/27, with soluble coffee accounting for about 1.55 million bags. Kopi susu (coffee with milk) remains a popular entry-level drink.

Author: Qahwa World – Jakarta
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report ID2026-0021
Date: May 15, 2026
Report Availability: The full USDA report can be accessed through the USDA PSD Online Advanced Query system.

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Professional Barista Skills: How the Role Transformed from Drink Maker to Experience Manager

Author: Qahwa World – Dubai
Date: May 17, 2026

Executive Summary

  • The barista role has shifted from a simple drink maker to a quality controller, hospitality professional, and skilled storyteller.
  • Automation does not reduce difficulty; it changes the nature of work, turning baristas into technical monitors and calibrators.
  • Today’s customers are more knowledgeable than ever, raising the stakes for every interaction behind the bar.
  • Staff turnover in hospitality exceeds 70% in the US and reaches 6% monthly in the UK, driven by treating barista roles as temporary.
  • Successful coffee shops invest in clear career paths, treating barista as a long-term craft rather than a stopgap job.
  • Hospitality and emotional intelligence now outweigh technical skills in building customer loyalty and justifying premium pricing.

The Evolution of the Barista Role

Over the past decade, the specialty coffee industry has witnessed a deep transformation in the nature of barista work. The scene no longer revolves solely around leveling a portafilter or pouring a symmetrical tulip. Today, baristas face multiple pressures: customers who follow coffee experts on social media, machines with complex technology, and coffee shops that demand multiple roles simultaneously.

Industry observers compare today’s barista to a chef in a fine dining restaurant. Both require technical mastery, the ability to handle pressure, and a talent for reading customer needs before they are expressed. This shift reflects positive progress in how the profession is valued, but it also places new burdens on those working behind the bar.

Advanced Technical Mastery: Extraction Science and Dynamic Calibration

Technical skills remain the foundation, but they have evolved significantly. It is no longer enough to know how to pull a good espresso shot. A barista must understand why it behaves that way under specific weather conditions or with a particular coffee origin.

Core technical skills include: understanding extraction science and the impact of grind size, temperature, and pressure; mastering latte art as a way to stabilize milk texture rather than just decoration; adjusting recipes for alternative brewing methods (pour-over, filter) based on processing method (natural, washed, honey); and maintaining equipment while troubleshooting issues. In the age of automation, the barista’s role shifts from “machine operator” to “quality assurance manager” who monitors performance and intervenes when necessary.

Dynamic calibration is what separates the professional barista from the beginner. Fixed recipes are the enemy of quality. A successful barista adjusts grind size and dose based on humidity and temperature changes inside the café throughout the day. This requires a trained palate to detect extraction defects (such as channeling or uneven extraction) before the customer complains.

Operational Variable Smart Standard Professional Goal
Water temperature 93°C (199°F) Avoid bitter burning or sharp acidity
Pre-infusion time 4 seconds Ensure even flow and prevent channeling
Grind size adjustment Minimum twice daily Counteract fluctuating indoor humidity

Managing Automation: From Operator to Quality Controller

Many coffee shops, especially in high-volume settings, are turning to automated equipment such as automatic pour-over brewers and milk foamers. Some see this as a threat to barista skill. The reality is different. Automation does not reduce difficulty; it changes the nature of the work. Today’s barista needs to understand machine algorithms, adjust pressure and flow profiles, and maintain equipment precisely to ensure consistent results.

When a machine manages extraction variables or milk steaming automatically, the barista’s role shifts toward monitoring, maintenance, and quality control. Identifying when something is off, understanding why, and fixing the problem requires attention to detail and forward-thinking. The smart barista harnesses technology to reduce waste and raise operational efficiency without compromising the sensory soul of the craft.

Emotional Intelligence and Interactive Hospitality

Research suggests that up to 78% of millennials prefer spending money on memorable experiences over material goods. This reality makes hospitality a critical success factor for specialty coffee shops. The Institute of Customer Service found that most consumers cite service quality as the main factor in whether they return to a business, ranking above price and product.

Emotional intelligence sits at the heart of excellent hospitality. The ability to read a customer’s body language in seconds — are they in a hurry, looking for conversation, or seeking a quiet experience? — handling a stressed customer during rush hour without escalating tension, and maintaining composure during a long queue are professional skills that take time and experience to develop. Additionally, explaining a complex menu in simple language, offering personalized suggestions without condescension, and turning a routine order into an engaging conversation about the customer’s preferences are all essential.

Brands like WatchHouse exemplify the success of a hospitality-first model. After record revenues, the chain aims to reach 100 global locations, where baristas greet guests at the door, seat them, walk them through the menu, and serve drinks tableside. This transforms a routine café visit into something closer to a fine dining experience.

Deep Coffee Knowledge and Storytelling

Today’s customers follow roasters on Instagram and know the difference between Ethiopian heirloom and Colombian pink bourbon. This level of knowledge reduces the burden of “educating” consumers, but it raises the stakes for every interaction. The barista’s role is no longer just providing information but enriching the drinking experience by connecting coffee to its story: the farm, the farmer, the processing method, the altitude, and how each affects the flavor.

The ability to make personalized suggestions with scientific confidence: “This natural Ethiopian will give you bold wild berry notes, while this Colombian offers a beautiful balance of caramel and green apple-like acidity.” Also handling special requests (plant-based milks, decaf, low-acid) with confidence rather than just “yes we can.”

Operational Efficiency and Economic Vision

Professional sustainability means the barista understands how their movements behind the bar affect the café’s profitability. Global coffee shops are not only looking for someone who pours beautiful latte art, but also someone who manages resources intelligently. Workflow optimization — organizing tools and moving smoothly to reduce customer wait time while maintaining the highest quality standards — is an art.

Waste reduction includes precisely adjusting milk quantities and controlling coffee bean waste during morning calibration. These practices directly reduce operational costs. Understanding the basics of drink costing and natural upselling that serves the customer makes the barista a partner in business success, not just an executive employee.

Continuous Learning and Career Paths: Tackling High Turnover

The hospitality sector suffers from high employee turnover. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the sector has the highest turnover rate in the country, at over 70%. A separate study found that nearly 3 million US hospitality workers left their jobs in early 2024, a figure 204% above the national average quit rate. Meanwhile, in the UK, recent data shows that around 6% of hospitality workers leave their jobs every month.

Most of these problems stem from how roles like barista are perceived. When treated as temporary rather than a long-term, professional position, employers invest less in training and development. This limits career progression, pushing baristas to find other work. The solution lies in creating clear career paths: junior barista, senior barista, head barista, roaster, café manager. Coffee shops that invest in continuous training, positive culture, and competitive pay retain the skilled, passionate people who help their businesses succeed.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What is the single most important skill for a barista in 2026?

There is no single skill. The professional barista combines technical mastery (extraction science, dynamic calibration) with emotional intelligence (interactive hospitality, pressure management).

2. How has automation changed the barista’s role?

It shifted baristas from machine operators to quality controllers. They now need to understand machine algorithms, perform calibration and maintenance, while focusing on human elements that machines cannot replace.

3. Why are communication and hospitality skills so important today?

Customers are more knowledgeable than ever, and expectations are higher. Excellent service is the number one factor in customer return and justifies premium pricing in specialty coffee shops.

4. What causes high barista turnover in the industry?

The main reason is treating the profession as temporary rather than a career path. This leads to underinvestment in training, development, and competitive pay, pushing talent to seek more stable opportunities.

5. How can a coffee shop retain talented baristas?

By investing in continuous training, creating clear career paths, offering competitive pay, and building a positive workplace culture where baristas feel valued and respected.

6. What separates a professional barista from an average one today?

The professional combines technical excellence (dynamic calibration, extraction science, automation management) with soft skills (hospitality, emotional intelligence, storytelling, and economic awareness).

Author: Coffee Industry Analysis Unit  |
Source: Synthesis of three expert reports (field experience, PDG Jobs analysis, industry research)  |
Publication date: May 17, 2026

World Coffee Research releases 2025 annual report

 

Qahwa World – Dubai |
May 14, 2026 |
7 min read |
Source: WCR Annual Report 2025

Executive Summary

  • World Coffee Research released its 2025 annual report covering January 1 to December 31, 2025
  • Innova Global Coffee Breeding Network named a TIME Best Invention of 2025
  • Network expands to include robusta coffee with six partner countries producing 64% of global robusta
  • 11 countries now in Innova network, producing 40% of world’s coffee supply
  • WCR aims to reduce breeding timeline from 30 years to 8 years using genetic markers
  • 10-year IMLVT trial results: Up to half of arabica land could become unsuitable by 2050 due to climate change
  • $4.96 million in industry contributions; $9.85 million total financial position
  • Seed system expansions in Peru, Uganda, Guatemala, Honduras to produce millions of new trees annually
  • WCR helped secure $175 million in U.S. funding for agricultural R&D including coffee

World Coffee Research (WCR) announced the release of its 2025 annual report on December 31, 2025, detailing the expansion of its TIME-recognized Innova Global Coffee Breeding Network into robusta coffee, new data showing that half of current arabica land could become unsuitable by 2050, and seed system expansions across four producing countries.

The report, which covers the period between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, confirmed that WCR’s Innova network has expanded to include Coffea canephora (robusta) breeding, adding Vietnam and Ghana as new national partners. Six countries now participate in robusta breeding: Vietnam, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Rwanda, and Uganda, which together produce 64 percent of the world’s robusta supply. Overall, 11 countries make up the Innova network, producing 40 percent of global coffee supply.

An independent panel of global breeding experts commissioned by WCR’s board of directors reviewed the organization’s breeding programs in early 2025 and described the approach as a “radical step forward” that sets a new bar for coffee breeding worldwide. The Innova network was subsequently named a TIME Best Invention of 2025. The robusta breeding program combines multiple genetic groups, including a collection provided by French research institute CIRAD. Propagation began in 2025, and starting in 2027 each robusta partner will receive 1,000 unique new trees from WCR.

The report detailed that WCR is working to reduce coffee breeding timelines from the traditional 30 years to just 8 years. In 2025, the organization initiated a collaboration with Cenicafe, one of the world’s leading national coffee research institutions, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Tropical Agricultural Research Station (USDA TARS) in Puerto Rico to develop low-cost genetic markers for Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR), the world’s most economically devastating coffee disease. In 2026, WCR will expand this work to cover Coffee Berry Disease (CBD), Coffee Fruit Rot (CFR), and Coffee Berry Borer (CBB). Once validated between 2025 and 2028, these markers will be publicly released through scholarly publication.

According to the report, 10-year results from the International Multilocation Variety Trial (IMLVT), launched in 2015 with 31 arabica varieties shared by 11 breeding programs, confirmed that coffee leaf rust resistance depends on both genetics and environment. A 2015 study by WCR and CIAT that guided site selection for the trial network identified that up to half of today’s arabica land could become unsuitable for coffee production by 2050. The IMLVT has identified high-performing varieties with strong rust resistance and stable yields. In 2026, WCR will launch CafeClima, a free online platform integrating climate modeling with IMLVT variety performance data to help farmers make data-driven replanting decisions.

WCR installed 10,000 F1 hybrid plantlets across 10 trial sites in Peru, Guatemala, and Costa Rica, planted directly in farmers’ fields through member-led trials. The report also detailed seed system expansions across four countries. In Peru, 10 new arabica seed lots were installed with 8 cooperatives, targeting 15 seed lots by 2028 producing up to 6 million seeds annually. In Uganda, 11 mother gardens for disease-resistant robusta were installed or expanded with national coffee institute NaCORI, targeting over 40 mother gardens by 2028 producing 560,000 trees per year. In Guatemala and Honduras, 12 new seed lots will be installed in 2026, producing 5.4 million seeds annually starting in 2029.

The report highlighted advocacy wins including $175 million secured in FY26 “hard earmarks” for international agricultural R&D through coordinated advocacy by U.S. member companies, with a legal requirement that a portion support coffee research. A separate coalition mobilized $850,000 for Uganda’s coffee future from UNIDO, JDE Peet’s, Lavazza Foundation and The J.M. Smucker Co.

According to the financial section of the report, total contributions earned from the coffee industry in 2025 was $4,962,000. The total year-end financial position reached $9,852,000. Figures are pre-audit. WCR confirmed the commitment of its 194 member companies from 30 countries, with 59 additional companies and individuals providing financial support in 2025. WCR’s knowledge products, including the Coffee Varieties Catalog, Sensory Lexicon, and nursery manuals, were viewed 239,722 times in 195 countries during 2025. The organization also installed a small-batch processing facility at its research farm in El Salvador, custom-designed for breeding programs to process samples from thousands of individual trees.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Innova Global Coffee Breeding Network?

It is the most ambitious and globally coordinated coffee breeding program in history, bringing together 11 countries to transform coffee breeding and create enhanced genetics at an accelerated pace.

What recognition did WCR receive in 2025?

The Innova network was named a TIME Best Invention of 2025, and an expert panel described WCR’s breeding approach as a “radical step forward” for coffee.

How will climate change affect coffee production according to the report?

A 2015 study by WCR and CIAT that guided the IMLVT trial network found that up to half of today’s arabica land could become unsuitable by 2050.

Which countries are part of the Innova robusta breeding program?

Vietnam, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Rwanda, and Uganda — which together produce 64 percent of the world’s robusta.

How many member companies does WCR have?

194 member companies from 30 countries, with 59 additional companies and individuals providing financial support in 2025.

What is CafeClima?

A free online platform launching in 2026 that integrates climate modeling with variety performance data to help farmers make data-driven replanting decisions.

Source: World Coffee Research Annual Report 2025
Report period: January 1, 2025 – December 31, 2025
Author: Qahwa World – Dubai
Publication date: May 14, 2026

 

Mexico Coffee Production Forecast to Reach 4.1 Million Bags in 2026/2027

Author: Qahwa World – Dubai
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Mexico City Office
Report Number: MX2026-0026
Date: May 14, 2026
Executive Summary

  • Mexico coffee production forecast at 4.1 million green bean equivalent bags for MY 2026/2027
  • Production expected to increase 1 percent year-over-year driven by robusta expansion
  • Mexican coffee consists of 85 percent arabica and 15 percent robusta
  • Chiapas, Veracruz, and Puebla account for more than 80 percent of national production
  • Domestic consumption projected to rise 1 percent to 3.2 million bags
  • United States remains primary destination for Mexican coffee exports
  • Soluble coffee covers approximately 60 percent of domestic consumption

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts Mexico coffee production for marketing year 2026/2027 at 4.1 million green bean equivalent bags, a 1 percent increase from the previous year. This marginal growth is driven by sustained investment following two years of favorable market prices and the continued expansion of robusta production.

Mexican coffee production consists of 85 percent arabica and 15 percent robusta. The three main producing states are Chiapas, Veracruz, and Puebla, which together account for more than 80 percent of national output.

Production outlook by region

Chiapas is forecast to remain the top coffee-producing state by volume in MY 2026/2027. Puebla is expected to have the highest yields at 13 green bean equivalent bags per hectare, more than double the national average. This exceptional performance is due to favorable soil conditions, investments in leaf-rust resistant plants, and infrastructure near major cities. Veracruz ranks as the second highest yielding state.

Despite a decline from 2025 peaks, coffee prices in early 2026 continue to trend well above historical averages. According to the International Coffee Organization, arabica prices averaged 331 US cents per pound as of March 2026, which is 40 percent above the ten-year average.

This extended period of profitability has enabled producers in Chiapas, Veracruz, and Puebla to reinvest in farm management. Growers have increased plant density, input application, and quality control measures. The adoption of new varieties resistant to coffee leaf rust is forecast to continue growing the sector without expanding planted area.

Key insight: Following years of widespread coffee leaf rust outbreaks, Mexican producers have gradually transitioned toward replanting arabica rust-resistant varieties. These plants are currently in their early growth stages and have yet to fruit, but they are expected to lay the foundation for a more resilient and productive sector in the coming years.

Robusta expansion

Mexico is expanding robusta production due to its resilience against disease, ability to thrive in lower-altitude climates, and demand from large soluble coffee processors. According to industry contacts, large-scale processors have prioritized local sourcing. They provide robusta farmers with contract agreements and price stability. The main producer of robusta is Chiapas, followed by Veracruz, Puebla, and Oaxaca.

For MY 2025/2026, production is estimated at 4 million green bean equivalent bags, a 4 percent increase over the previous year. This growth is driven by recovery from heat waves that affected robusta fields in MY 2024/2025. Increased investment in both robusta and arabica management, enhanced pre- and post-harvest practices, and selective harvesting to secure higher quality and market premiums have also contributed.

Domestic consumption trends

Coffee consumption is forecast at 3.2 million green bean equivalent bags for MY 2026/2027, an increase of 1 percent from the previous year. This slight growth is attributed to expansion in retail coffee shops and chains, as well as changing consumption habits favoring premium coffee.

Convenience stores are increasing the availability of ready-to-drink coffee. Caffeine, a coffee company in northern Mexico, has entered a partnership with OXXO, the largest convenience store chain in Mexico. Caffeine produces, roasts, and supplies coffee for nearly all OXXO stores in Mexico and Colombia, ensuring high quality and fast coffee service across the chain network.

Mexico is also Starbucks’ largest market in Latin America and the Caribbean, and its seventh largest globally. With an expansion of approximately 70 new stores annually, the company plans to reach 1,000 stores in the country during 2026.

Major urban areas in Mexico are showing higher demand for high-quality, single-origin coffee. This has created new markets for premium coffee products such as capsules, cold brew, and specialty offerings. Microlots are growing in popularity to meet demand for unique sensory profiles and limited editions.

Online platforms in Mexico are increasing access to specialty coffee brands, single-origin beans, and subscription programs. This online channel enables small roasters to reach customers throughout the country, allowing customers to discover artisanal and responsibly sourced coffee products.

Despite growth in the premium sector, soluble coffee remains more practical and economical, covering approximately 60 percent of domestic consumption. Coffee tricycles, common in Mexico City and other cities, offer café de olla (roasted coffee prepared with cinnamon and sweetened), soluble coffee, and hot chocolate as an affordable and traditional alternative to coffee shops.

Export and import trends

Coffee exports for MY 2026/2027 are forecast at 3.4 million green bean equivalent bags, a decrease of 1 percent from the previous year. Gains in production are expected to satisfy domestic consumption, slightly reducing export volumes.

The United States remains the primary destination market for Mexican coffee in all forms. Exports to the United States reached 2.6 million green bean equivalent bags in 2025. Mexico primarily exports green bean and soluble coffee to the US market.

Coffee imports are forecast at 2.4 million green bean equivalent bags for MY 2026/2027, a decrease of 4 percent. This trend is driven by a forecasted rise in local robusta production, reducing the need for imported green beans. In 2025, the private sector announced various investment programs aimed at increasing coffee production capacity. As a result, Mexico is substituting soluble coffee imports with domestically manufactured products.

Government support programs

Mexico’s Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Development operates several coffee-specific producer support programs. Production for Wellbeing provides direct financial support of 388 US dollars per producer per year. In 2026, a total of 181,364 producers participated, covering an area of 216,306 hectares.

Fertilizers for Wellbeing delivered 53,542 tons of fertilizer to 151,253 producers in 2026, benefiting an area of 165,984 hectares. This initiative seeks to enhance soil fertility and boost productivity among coffee growers and is expected to expand in scope for 2026.

Café Bienestar, managed by the Secretariat of Wellbeing, aims to distribute affordable coffee through the country network of Bienestar stores. The program buys coffee from producers in Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Veracruz, and Guerrero and processes it. This program is estimated to represent 3 to 4 percent of the total soluble coffee market.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will Mexico produce in 2026/2027?
The USDA forecasts Mexico coffee production at 4.1 million green bean equivalent bags for MY 2026/2027, a 1 percent increase from the previous year.

Which states produce the most coffee in Mexico?
Chiapas, Veracruz, and Puebla are the three main coffee-producing states, together accounting for more than 80 percent of national production. Chiapas remains the top producer by volume.

What is the breakdown between arabica and robusta in Mexico?
Mexican coffee production consists of 85 percent arabica and 15 percent robusta. Robusta production is expanding due to its disease resistance and demand from soluble coffee processors.

How is coffee leaf rust affecting Mexican production?
Following years of widespread coffee leaf rust outbreaks, producers have gradually transitioned to replanting arabica rust-resistant varieties. These plants are in early growth stages and are expected to create a more resilient sector.

What is the coffee consumption trend in Mexico?
Domestic consumption is forecast at 3.2 million bags, a 1 percent increase. Soluble coffee covers approximately 60 percent of consumption, while premium and specialty coffee segments are growing rapidly.

Who is the primary buyer of Mexican coffee?
The United States remains the primary destination market for Mexican coffee exports, receiving 2.6 million green bean equivalent bags in 2025.


Author: Qahwa World – Dubai
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Mexico City Office
Report Number: MX2026-0026
Date: May 14, 2026

USDA Report: India’s Coffee Sector Faces Climate Challenges and Historic Trade Opportunities

Executive Summary

  • India MY 2026/27 coffee production forecast at 6.14 million 60-kg bags
  • Arabica yields expected to decline 8% due to excessive rainfall followed by extended dry spell
  • Farmgate prices for Arabica down 16%, Robusta down 11% since October 2025
  • New free trade agreements with UK and EFTA countries offer zero tariffs on Indian coffee exports
  • Domestic consumption projected at 1.58 million bags, driven by soluble coffee demand
  • India aims to reach 900,000 metric tons production by 2047

1. Overview: India’s Position in Global Coffee Market

India ranks as the world’s seventh-largest coffee producer, after Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Uganda. Approximately 95 percent of India’s coffee production is exported, with green coffee accounting for about 59 percent of total exports and instant (soluble) coffee making up the remaining 41 percent.

According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report from the New Delhi office, India’s coffee sector is at a critical juncture. The country faces climate-related production challenges while simultaneously gaining unprecedented access to European markets through newly ratified free trade agreements.

Key Insight: India’s coffee production comprises approximately one-third Arabica and two-thirds Robusta, with Robusta accounting for over 75% of total output due to its greater resilience to weather variability.

2. Production Forecast: MY 2026/27

FAS Mumbai forecasts India’s MY 2026/27 coffee production at approximately 368,400 metric tons, or about 6.14 million 60-kilogram bags, comprising 1.56 million 60-kg bags of Arabica (93,600 metric tons) and 4.58 million 60-kg bags of Robusta (274,800 metric tons).

📊 Figure 1: India Production Trend
Source: USDA/FAS (Chart data described below)
Figure 1: India coffee production has grown at a CAGR of 2.05% between MY 2021/22 and MY 2024/25

Production Data Table

Table 1: India Coffee Production Forecast (1000 60-kg bags)
Category MY 2024/25 (Actual) MY 2025/26 (Estimate) MY 2026/27 (Forecast)
Arabica Production 1,762 1,730 1,560
Robusta Production 4,297 4,700 4,580
Total Production 6,059 6,430 6,140

3. Climate Challenges: The Threat to Arabica

The India Meteorological Department’s first long-range outlook for the 2026 southwest monsoon indicates below-normal rainfall at about 92 percent of the long-period average, with a 66 percent probability of below-normal to deficit conditions.

Arabica output is expected to decline due to below-normal monsoon rainfall combined with unusually high temperatures, which may adversely affect flowering and fruit set. In contrast, Robusta production is projected to remain relatively strong, reflecting its greater resilience to weather variability.

Rainfall Data for Coffee Growing Regions

Table 2: Rainfall Statistics for Karnataka and Kerala (January – April 2026)
State/District Winter (Jan-Feb) Departure Pre-Monsoon (Mar-Apr) Departure
Chikmagalur (Karnataka) Large Excess (+244%) Normal (-17%)
Kodagu (Karnataka) Large Excess (+177%) Normal (-7%)
Wayanad (Kerala) Large Excess (+235%) Deficit (-48%)
Travancore (Kerala) Excess (+48%) Deficit (-53%)

The data reveals a stark pattern: excessive winter rainfall (January-February) followed by deficit pre-monsoon rains (March-April). This extreme weather variability – from flooding to drought within weeks – is precisely the type of climate shock that most damages coffee flowering and fruit set, particularly for the more sensitive Arabica variety.

4. Yield Projections

For MY 2026/27, Arabica yields are projected to decline by eight percent year-on-year to 452 kilograms per hectare, while Robusta yields are expected to fall marginally by two percent to 1,239 kilograms per hectare, although still above the three-year average.

Table 3: Coffee Yield Comparison (kg per hectare)
Coffee Type MY 2026/27 Forecast 3-Year Average (2022-2024) Change
Arabica 452 475 -8%
Robusta 1,239 1,156 +7% (above average)
Why Robusta Outperforms: Robusta yields remain about 2.3 times higher than Arabica, reflecting its greater resilience and productivity. Arabica is more sensitive to altitude, pest, and climate variability, requiring more precise growing conditions.

5. Price Dynamics: Decline from Record Highs

Farmgate prices for Arabica and Robusta have declined by 16 percent and 11 percent respectively since October 2025. Despite this change, prices remain at a premium to other origins, though further moderation is expected. The decline in prices is being driven by expectations of higher output in key producing countries and elevated domestic stock levels.

📊 Figure 2: Farmgate Raw Coffee Prices in Karnataka
Exchange rate: Rupees 92.99 per US dollar (as of April 20, 2026)
Source: Coffee Board of India
Figure 2: Indian coffee prices have moderated but still trade at premium to competing origins

6. Export Outlook: Trade Agreements Transform Market Access

Post forecasts that MY 2026/27 coffee exports will rise by three percent to 6.22 million bags (373,140 metric tons), driven by higher exportable surplus and strong demand for soluble coffee exports.

New Free Trade Agreements

Table 4: New Trade Agreements Benefiting Indian Coffee Exports
Agreement Partner Countries Benefit for Coffee Effective Date
India-UK CETA United Kingdom Zero duty on roast, ground, and instant coffee Recently concluded
India-EFTA TEPA Switzerland, Norway, Iceland Zero percent duty on all coffee exports October 1, 2025

The United Kingdom currently accounts for 1.7 percent of India’s coffee exports, while the EFTA countries (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland) offer new zero-tariff access. Europe has emerged as a more stable trading partner with increased inquiries. Italy remains the top destination, using almost 60 percent of imported Indian coffee domestically while 40 percent is processed for private label manufacturers for re-exports.

Export Destinations

📊 Figure 3: Coffee Export Share by Country (percentage)
Italy leads, followed by Germany, Russia, Belgium, and UAE
Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC
Figure 3: Indian coffee exported to more than 125 countries, with 61% of shipments from Mangalore port

7. Export Challenges: Premium Prices and Freight Costs

Despite positive momentum, several challenges exist. Indian coffee prices are significantly higher than competing origins from Vietnam and Indonesia. High premiums could pose challenges to exports despite recent prices being lower than last year.

Freight costs to the Middle East have surged dramatically, from $700-$1,200 per 20-foot container in January/February to $1,500-$2,800, with occasional short-term spikes higher due to war risk surcharges, insurance costs, and vessel rerouting. Trade data indicates that about 11-12 percent of India’s total coffee exports in green bean equivalent go to the Middle East, the second-largest regional market after Europe (44-45 percent).

8. Domestic Consumption: A Growing Market

Post forecasts MY 2026/27 domestic consumption at 1.58 million 60-kilogram bags (94,800 metric tons), supported by rising demand for soluble coffee. Household consumption of soluble coffee is expected to account for a significantly larger share of domestic consumption, rising to around 73 percent next year.

India’s per capita coffee consumption remains at 0.04 kilograms, well below the global average of 1.3 kilograms, indicating significant growth potential.

Table 5: Domestic Consumption Breakdown (1000 60-kg bags)
Category MY 2024/25 MY 2025/26 MY 2026/27 Forecast
Roast & Ground Domestic 330 415 420
Soluble Domestic 820 1,160 1,160
Total Domestic Consumption 1,150 1,575 1,580

9. Long-Term Vision: India 2047

The Coffee Board of India has set an ambitious long-term target of increasing national coffee production to 900,000 metric tons by 2047, through a combination of productivity gains, area expansion, and value-chain improvements. This includes replanting old and low-yielding bushes with high-yielding, climate-resilient varieties, promoting better agronomic practices (irrigation, pruning, soil health), and expanding cultivation into non-traditional regions.

📊 Figure 4: Monthly Coffee Exports by Volume (October-September)
5-year average vs 2024/25 vs 2025/26
Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC
Figure 4: Exports in MY 2025/26 (October-January) were 26% higher than the previous year

10. Imports: Filling the Gap

Post forecasts MY 2026/27 imports at 1.39 million 60-kilogram bags (83,400 metric tons). Imports are expected to be four percent higher than last year as the use of Indian coffee in soluble coffee re-exports remains limited due to domestic beans trading at a premium, necessitating higher reliance on imported beans for processing and value addition.

Green beans account for approximately 94 percent of total imports and are primarily sourced from Indonesia, Kenya, Vietnam, Uganda, and Brazil for processing and re-export.

Table 6: India Import Tariff on Coffee Products
HS Code Product Description Standard Rate
0901.11 Coffee not roasted, not decaffeinated 100%
0901.12 Coffee not roasted, decaffeinated 100%
0901.21 Coffee roasted, not decaffeinated 100%
2101.11.20 Instant coffee not flavored 30%

11. Key Challenges Facing Indian Coffee Sector

  • Climate Variability: Excessive rainfall followed by extended dry spells during critical flowering stage
  • Fertilizer Costs: Persistent shortages and rising input costs across the value chain
  • Labor Availability: Coffee production is labor intensive, with nearly 70% of production cost attributable to labor
  • Premium Pricing: Indian coffee prices significantly higher than competing origins from Vietnam and Indonesia
  • Freight Disruptions: Surging shipping costs to Middle East due to geopolitical tensions

12. Opportunities

  • Free Trade Agreements: Zero tariff access to UK, Switzerland, Norway, and Iceland
  • Growing Domestic Market: India’s coffee market projected to grow at 8.9% CAGR by 2028
  • Soluble Coffee Demand: Double-digit growth in domestic soluble coffee consumption
  • Specialty Coffee: Estate branded coffees commanding prices comparable to export levels
  • Youth Demographic: Expanding urban coffee culture and younger consumers driving growth

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will India produce in 2026/27?

According to the USDA FAS report, India is forecast to produce 6.14 million 60-kilogram bags (approximately 368,400 metric tons) in MY 2026/27, comprising 1.56 million bags of Arabica and 4.58 million bags of Robusta.

Why is Arabica production expected to decline?

Arabica yields are projected to decline 8% due to excessive rainfall in January and February 2026 followed by an extended dry spell during the critical flowering and fruiting stage. Arabica is more temperature-sensitive and has higher water requirements compared to Robusta.

What are the new trade agreements benefiting Indian coffee?

The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) offers duty-free access for roast, ground, and instant coffee to the United Kingdom. The India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA), effective October 1, 2025, provides zero percent duty on all coffee exports to Switzerland, Norway, and Iceland.

How have coffee prices changed in India?

Farmgate prices for Arabica have declined by 16 percent and Robusta by 11 percent since October 2025. Despite this decline, Indian coffee prices remain at a premium to other origins, though further moderation is expected.

What is India’s long-term coffee production target?

The Coffee Board of India has set an ambitious target of increasing national coffee production to 900,000 metric tons by 2047 through productivity gains, area expansion, replanting with high-yielding varieties, and value-chain improvements.

Who are the main buyers of Indian coffee?

Italy remains the major buyer, followed by Germany, Russia, Belgium, and the United Arab Emirates. Indian coffee is now exported to more than 125 countries, with approximately 61 percent of shipments originating from the Mangalore port in Karnataka.


 

The Hidden Science in Your Morning Cup: How Electricity Could Finally Tame Coffee’s Wild Inconsistency

A new electrochemical method promises to do what refractometers and taste-testers alone cannot: measure both strength and roast quality in a single sip.

Dubai – Qahwa World

There is a quiet frustration that haunts every coffee lover’s life. You find a bag of beans you love. Bright, complex, perfectly balanced. You brew it exactly the same way the next morning. And somehow, it is wrong. Too bitter. Too sour. Thin and lifeless.

The problem is not your technique. Or rather, it is not only your technique. The problem is that coffee is one of the most chemically complex beverages on Earth. More than a thousand compounds interact in ways that scientists are still struggling to understand. And for decades, we have been flying blind when it comes to measuring what actually ends up in the cup.

The coffee industry has relied on a single number to assess quality: total dissolved solids, or TDS, measured by shining light through the liquid. A refractometer tells you how much coffee material is dissolved in the water. But it cannot tell you what that material is.

And that, as it turns out, is a serious problem.

Now, a team of chemists at the University of Oregon, led by Christopher Hendon, has published a study in Nature Communications that offers a radical alternative. They have shown that by running a simple electrical test on a cup of black coffee, with no sample preparation, no dilution, no fancy reagents, you can measure both the strength of the brew and, separately, how dark the coffee was roasted. Two of the most critical variables in coffee quality, captured in a single voltammogram.

The Refractometer’s Blind Spot

To understand why this matters, you have to understand what the coffee industry has been working with.

The refractometer is a marvel of practical engineering. It measures how much light bends as it passes through a liquid, the refractive index, and uses an empirical formula to convert that number into a percentage of dissolved solids. A typical filter coffee might register around 1.35% TDS, meaning that 98.65% of what is in your cup is water.

But here is the catch: different substances bend light differently. A 2% glucose solution has the same refractive index as a 4% ethanol solution. In a simple system, that is a problem. In coffee, which contains hundreds of organic acids, sugars, alkaloids, lipids, and melanoidins, it is a fundamental limitation.

Two coffees can have identical TDS readings and taste completely different. A light roast and a dark roast, brewed to the same strength, will produce wildly different flavor experiences. The refractometer cannot tell them apart.

Hendon’s team set out to build a tool that could.

A Method Borrowed from Battery Science

Cyclic voltammetry sounds intimidating, and the instruments used to perform it, potentiostats, are normally found in laboratories testing batteries or fuel cells. But the basic principle is elegant. You immerse electrodes in a solution, sweep the voltage across a range, and measure how much current flows.

Different molecules respond at different voltages, either donating or accepting electrons. In principle, you could identify specific compounds, such as caffeine, chlorogenic acids, or the organic acids that give coffee its brightness, by looking for their characteristic signatures on the voltammogram.

But Hendon’s team took a different approach. Instead of trying to identify individual molecules, they looked at the overall shape of the response, particularly in the region where hydrogen ions interact with the surface of a platinum electrode.

What they found was surprising.

In brewed coffee, which is naturally conductive and self-buffered to a pH of about 5, the voltammogram looks remarkably like that of acidic water. There are features corresponding to hydrogen adsorption onto the platinum surface, followed by hydrogen gas evolution at more negative voltages. On the return sweep, oxygen-related chemistry appears.

But here is where it gets interesting. When you cycle the voltage repeatedly, those hydrogen-related features shrink. The current decreases by about 34% from the first scan to the second and another 18% to the third. Something is coating the electrode surface, blocking the sites where hydrogen would normally react.

That something, the researchers discovered, includes caffeine.

Scavenging the Cup

To prove this, they did something clever. They took a platinum mesh electrode, far larger than the tiny disk used for routine measurements, and cycled it hundreds of times in brewed coffee, deliberately building up a layer of adsorbed material. Then they submerged the electrode in a water-acetonitrile solution, sonicated it to release the adsorbates, and ran the resulting liquid through a high-performance liquid chromatograph coupled with a mass spectrometer.

Caffeine showed up. About 300 micrograms of it, representing roughly 0.4% of the total caffeine in an average cup. Over the course of the experiment, each hundred-cycle scan scavenged about 0.1% of the available caffeine.

But caffeine is not the whole story. Dark roasts have less chlorogenic acid than light roasts. Those compounds break down during roasting, contributing to the bitter, smoky, “dark” flavor profile. The team used density functional theory calculations to show that both caffeine and 5-caffeoylquinic acid, a common chlorogenic acid isomer, bind stably to platinum surfaces, with slight preferences for different crystal facets. The suppression of the hydrogen signal, they argue, reflects the ensemble of organic molecules competing for the electrode surface. And that ensemble changes with roast level.

Distilling the Data

To test this hypothesis, the researchers did something any good coffee scientist would do: they roasted coffee. Starting with a Colombian green bean, they generated six progressively darker roasts, ranging from 75.8 Agtron units (light) down to 55.7 (dark). They rested the beans for seven days to allow carbon dioxide to off-gas, then brewed them using the Specialty Coffee Association’s cupping protocol.

Here is the critical step. They diluted each brew to exactly 1.00% TDS, measured by refractometer. So all six coffees had the same strength. Any difference in the voltammogram would therefore be due to composition alone, to roast level.

The difference was dramatic. The lightest roast passed about 50% more charge in the hydrogen region than the darkest roast. When they plotted total charge against TDS for each roast, they found a linear relationship, but the slope was steeper for lighter roasts.

In other words, the electrochemical method can decouple strength from roast color. Two coffees with the same TDS but different roast levels produce different electrical signatures. That is something a refractometer cannot do.

The Blind Taste Test

But the real validation came from a collaboration with Colonna Coffee, a specialty roaster in Bath, UK. Colonna had roasted four batches of the same coffee to the same target whole-bean color, about 93 Agtron units. Three of the batches were acceptable. One was rejected by their sensory quality control panel because it was too light, 98.9 Agtron, and exhibited undesirable flavors.

The roaster sent the samples to Hendon’s lab in single-blind fashion: four unlabeled samples, no indication which was rejected.

The team brewed each sample five times, in random order, and ran their voltammetry measurements in another random order. The refractometer readings showed no statistical difference between any of the four samples. The whole-bean color measurements, the very specification the roaster was trying to hit, could not distinguish the rejected batch from the acceptable ones.

But the electrochemical method could.

The current passed in the first scan clearly separated sample 1, the rejected batch, from samples 2, 3, and 4. The differences were statistically significant, with p-values as low as 0.0002. The acceptable batches all fell within the same statistical class.

The fouling rate, how quickly the current decreased from scan one to scan two, was identical across all four samples. That rate depends on concentration. But the absolute current in the first scan depends on composition. By looking at the first scan alone, the method correctly identified the out-of-spec coffee.

The roaster confirmed: sample 1 was the rejected batch.

Why This Matters for the Coffee Industry

Let me pause here and translate what this means for someone running a roastery or a café.

Right now, quality control is a patchwork. You measure bean color with a spectrophotometer. You measure brew strength with a refractometer. And then you taste. But tasting is subjective, and even the best palates fatigue. A batch that passes all the instrumental checks can still fail on the cupping table because something subtle went wrong in the roast, a slightly uneven development, a minor deviation in the temperature curve, a bean that did not behave the way the previous batch did.

The electrochemical method offers something new: a single measurement that captures both the amount of coffee in the cup and the kind of coffee that is there. It is sensitive to the ensemble chemical composition in a way that refractive index is not.

Hendon’s team envisions quality control calibration curves. A series of simple CV measurements on progressively more dilute coffee allows a roaster to rapidly construct a reference, enabling quantitative comparisons of separate batches of the same coffee roasted to the same color.

But perhaps more intriguingly, the method is sensitive to differences that even color-matched batches can show. Those four batches from Colonna had nearly identical Agtron readings. The refractometer could not tell them apart. The human tongue could, but the electrochemical method could, too, and with quantitative precision.

What the Method Cannot Do (Yet)

A responsible reporter must also note the limitations.

First, the method requires a potentiostat and a platinum electrode. While these are not exotic instruments, potentiostats are common in electrochemistry labs and are becoming smaller and more affordable, they are not yet a café countertop tool. The researchers have a financial interest in a company called Overpotential, which is working to commercialize electrochemically modified food products, suggesting that they see a path to real-world application. But we are not there yet.

Second, the method does not replace tasting. It supports it. The goal is not to build a machine that tells you whether a coffee is “good” or “bad” in some absolute sense. The goal is to build a machine that tells you whether this batch matches the chemical profile of the batch you approved last week. Consistency, not judgment.

Third, the research was conducted on a relatively narrow set of coffees, a single Colombian origin roasted to different levels, plus a validation set from a roaster in the UK. The authors acknowledge that the shape of the “plane” mapping charge to TDS and Agtron color may be coffee-specific. A robust quality control system would require calibration curves for each coffee, each roast profile, each brewing method.

And finally, the method as currently described requires the coffee to be brewed to cupping standards, a standardized protocol that includes a specific water temperature, contact time, and filtration method. Real-world brewing in a busy café is messier than that. Whether the method remains reliable across variable grind sizes, water compositions, and brewing devices is an open question.

The Deeper Insight

But there is something deeper here, something that speaks to a broader shift in how we think about coffee quality.

For decades, the specialty coffee industry has pursued a kind of analytical reductionism. We measure TDS. We measure extraction yield. We measure bean color. We measure particle size distributions. We track water chemistry to the part per million. The implicit goal is to control every variable so precisely that the sensory outcome becomes predictable.

But coffee resists that kind of control. Not because we lack precision instruments, but because the relationship between the variables and the sensory experience is nonlinear, emergent, and deeply dependent on the ensemble chemistry of the brew.

What Hendon’s team has done is to embrace that complexity rather than try to reduce it. They are not measuring individual compounds. They are measuring the collective effect of those compounds on a simple electrochemical process, hydrogen adsorption onto platinum. The current depends on how many protons are available and on how many organic molecules are competing for the electrode surface. That competition is a proxy for the overall chemical character of the brew.

In a sense, the voltammogram is doing something very similar to what your tongue does. Your taste receptors respond to patterns of molecular activation, not to individual analytes. Sweetness is not sucrose; it is the activation of a family of receptors by a range of molecules that share certain structural features. Bitterness is similarly complex. The electrochemical method captures a related kind of ensemble property.

This is not a coincidence. Both taste and electrochemistry are fundamentally about molecular interactions at surfaces.

A New Tool for an Ancient Craft

Coffee has been drunk for at least 500 years, and for most of that history, quality assessment was purely sensory. You tasted it. If you were good, really good, you could identify origin, roast level, and defects by smell and taste alone.

The modern specialty coffee movement has added instruments to the toolkit: color meters, refractometers, moisture analyzers, gas chromatographs. Each has improved consistency. Each has also revealed new dimensions of variability.

The electrochemical method proposed by Hendon’s team is the latest addition to that toolkit. It is not a revolution that renders the human palate obsolete. It is a new lens that reveals something the other lenses miss. It sees composition where the refractometer sees only concentration. It sees the difference between light and dark that a spectrophotometer, fixed on a single color target, can miss.

And in a blind test against a roaster’s own quality control panel, it got the answer right.

That is the standard that matters. Not whether the method is elegant or novel or scientifically interesting, though it is all of those things, but whether it can do work that needs doing. Whether it can help a roaster catch a bad batch before it goes out the door. Whether it can help a café reproduce a beloved brew day after day. Whether it can give the coffee industry something it has never had: a direct, quantitative, in-situ measurement of the chemical properties that actually determine flavor.

The answer, based on this study, appears to be yes.

The Bottom Line

Christopher Hendon and his colleagues have shown that cyclic voltammetry can measure both the strength and the roast level of black coffee in a single, rapid test with no sample preparation. The method is sensitive enough to distinguish between batches of coffee that have identical TDS and nearly identical bean color, batches that a refractometer cannot tell apart and that a roaster might reject only after tasting.

This is not yet a café-ready tool. But it is a proof of concept for a fundamentally different approach to coffee quality analysis: one that measures ensemble chemical properties rather than individual analytes, that embraces complexity rather than reducing it, and that aligns more closely with how human sensory perception actually works.

For an industry that has long sought a quantitative method to assess beverage qualities beyond those informed by sensory panels, this is a significant advance.

And for the rest of us, the millions of people who start each day with a cup of coffee that is sometimes transcendent and sometimes merely adequate, it is a reminder that the science of that morning ritual is still being written. The perfect cup is not yet a solved problem. But we are getting closer.

The study, “Direct electrochemical appraisal of black coffee quality using cyclic voltammetry,” appears in Nature Communications (2026, Vol. 17, Article 3618). Christopher H. Hendon and Doran L. Pennington have a financial interest in Overpotential, a company commercializing electrochemically modified food products.

Your Morning Cup, Smarter Than You Think

Dubai – Qahwa World

That morning cup of coffee might do more than just wake you up—it could enhance your mood and mental performance even if you skip the caffeine entirely. There are coffee benefits without caffeine that are worth exploring. In fact, coffee benefits without caffeine can be seen across several areas of health and wellness.

A recent investigation suggests both regular and decaffeinated coffee offer unique benefits for digestion, emotions, and behavior, highlighting coffee benefits without caffeine as particularly notable for those sensitive to stimulants.

Researchers from University College Cork in Ireland examined two groups: 31 habitual coffee consumers (three to five cups daily) and 31 people who didn’t drink coffee at all. Initially, both groups showed no notable differences in weight, blood pressure, stress, anxiety, depression, digestive comfort, sleep quality, or physical activity levels. Notably, some participants experienced positive coffee benefits, despite the lack of caffeine, showing that health improvements can occur with decaf.

However, regular coffee drinkers did display distinct variations in certain immune markers and gut bacteria strains. Additionally, decaf options also demonstrated coffee benefits without the presence of caffeine for some gut-related outcomes.

To determine whether caffeine drives these effects, the team asked all 31 coffee drinkers to quit their daily habit for two weeks. After this break, participants resumed coffee consumption—16 received caffeinated versions, while 15 received decaf, without knowing which they were drinking.

After three weeks, both groups showed similar shifts in gut microbiome patterns, including strain-level changes. This indicates that certain gut bacteria respond to coffee itself, regardless of its caffeine content. Hence, coffee benefits can be achieved even without caffeine present.

  • Complementary Effects

According to the study authors, both types of coffee reduced stress, depression, impulsivity, and inflammation, while simultaneously boosting mood and cognitive function. Moreover, coffee benefits without caffeine can be part of a healthy lifestyle for those avoiding stimulants.

But caffeine did have unique advantages: only the caffeinated group experienced lower anxiety, reduced psychological distress, improved blood pressure, better attention span, and enhanced stress management. Interestingly, at the start of the study and after returning to caffeine, coffee drinkers also showed slightly higher impulsivity and emotional reactivity compared to non-drinkers.

Decaffeinated coffee, on the other hand, was linked to better sleep quality, increased physical activity, and improved memory. In particular, coffee benefits without caffeine were most evident in those needing better sleep.

These findings point to caffeine’s specific influence on mood and cognition, while suggesting that even decaf may support the gut-brain connection. The coffee benefits for gut health appear regardless of caffeine content.

  • Beyond the Buzz

“Coffee is more than just caffeine—it’s a complex food component that interacts with our gut microbes, metabolism, and emotional state,” explains microbiologist John Cryan. “Our results indicate that coffee, with or without caffeine, can affect health in distinct yet complementary ways.” To further clarify, people can experience coffee benefits without including caffeine in their daily routine.

The research relies on observed associations between gut microbiome changes and self-reported mood and behavior patterns, which may not capture the full picture. Nonetheless, the study used detailed metabolic comparisons to link how individuals processed coffee compounds with differences in their gut flora—a stronger approach than simply noting general health benefits.

Still, proving cause and effect remains challenging, given how little scientists understand about the gut microbiome and its influence on the brain. For those concerned about caffeine, coffee benefits without the stimulant remain worthy of consideration.

  • What This Means for You

“The relationship between digestive health and mental well-being is becoming clearer, but the mechanisms behind coffee’s effects on this gut-brain axis have stayed elusive,” Cryan adds.

Despite unanswered questions, the evidence continues to grow: coffee appears beneficial for both body and mind, linked to lower stress, elevated mood, and potential relief from depression symptoms. Even decaf has shown cognitive improvements in several studies, marking coffee benefits without caffeine as promising.

This new research suggests that caffeinated and decaf coffee each carry their own physiological and psychological trade-offs. The right choice may depend on what you’re seeking—alertness and focus, or better sleep and memory.

Clearly, coffee benefits without caffeine remain an important topic for anyone considering their options for daily beverage habits. “The comprehensive insights from this study open doors for future research into using these interactions for health interventions,” the team concludes, “and highlight the importance of understanding coffee’s wide-ranging effects on human health.”

Honduran coffee production surges to 5.53 million bags

IHCAFE forecasts continued growth in 2026/27 supported by plant nutrition, area expansion, and new plantations; exports rise 7.5% but differentiated coffee share drops sharply in early data.
TEGUCIGALPA — Qahwa World

Honduras will produce 5.53 million 60 kilogram bags of coffee in the 2025/26 marketing year, a 6.3 percent increase from the previous cycle, according to the annual coffee report published by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service in Tegucigalpa. Notably, the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 indicates production is then forecast to jump another 9 percent to 6.03 million bags in 2026/27, returning the country to output levels last seen in 2021/22.

The projected growth is driven by improved plant nutrition, favorable biennial production cycles, expansion of productive areas, enhanced pruning and crop management practices, and the maturation of newly established coffee plantations. Planted area is expected to grow by about 3 percent, or 10,000 hectares, in 2025/26, largely due to the introduction of the rust resistant Parainema variety. Furthermore, forecasts for Honduras coffee production in 2026 are shaped by these agronomic improvements and varietal shifts.

Honduras, one of Central America’s leading coffee producers and a top global exporter of Arabica, concentrates its crop in six key regions: Copan, Montecillos, Opalaca, Comayagua, El Paraiso, and Agalta. Elevations range between 1,000 and 1,600 meters above sea level, where Bourbon, Catuaí, Caturra, and Typica thrive. Looking ahead, the production forecast for Honduras coffee in 2026 continues to inform regional agricultural strategies.

Production outlook and leaf rust pressure

As of March 2026, coffee leaf rust incidence increased from 7.57 percent to 8.44 percent nationally, triggering a Level 4 yellow alert. The rise reflects higher lesion counts and leaf damage, supported by favorable environmental conditions and the unrestricted movement of harvest workers. Despite localized pressures, overall national rust levels remain relatively contained due to dry season conditions in major producing regions. This has important implications for the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026, since disease pressure can impact yields.

Table 1: Honduras coffee production & export forecasts (million 60 kg bags)
Marketing year Production Exports Ending stocks
MY 2023/24 (actual) 5.00 4.77 0.081
MY 2024/25 (revised) 5.20 4.96 0.178
MY 2025/26 (forecast) 5.53 5.03 0.435
MY 2026/27 (projection) 6.03 5.50 0.707
Table 2: Coffee leaf rust incidence by selected departments (March 2026)
Department Incidence (%)
Comayagua 14.08%
Cortes 12.49%
Santa Bárbara 11.17%
Yoro 10.08%
El Paraíso 9.81%
Intibucá 9.27%
Copán 6.76%

Earlier survey data from April 2025 indicated that 16.67 percent of sampled farms had medium rust incidence (5 to 10 percent), 7.80 percent had high incidence (10 to 15 percent), and 21.63 percent recorded very high incidence above 15 percent. Approximately 5 percent of the current crop remained unharvested as of March 2026, while 44 percent was still in the supply chain awaiting export or processing. This context is significant for anyone examining the country’s 2026 coffee production forecast in Honduras.

Prices, Brazil and market volatility

As of late March 2026, coffee reference prices have shown downward pressure, driven by improved global supply expectations and forecasts of a large Brazilian harvest. While prices have eased from early 2026 highs, they remain volatile. Retail prices have not yet adjusted significantly, reflecting typical lags due to contracts and inventories. In summary, the Honduras coffee production outlook for 2026 is closely tied to international price volatility and market forces.

Weather risks in Brazil, including the potential for early frosts in key producing regions, may place upward pressure on global prices in 2026. However, continued market volatility and rising production costs — including higher diesel prices and fertilizer supply uncertainty linked to the Persian Gulf conflict — may constrain producer margins. Price developments will depend on frost events in Brazil between May and July 2026, crop performance in Vietnam and Colombia, and currency movements, especially the BRL USD exchange rate. Meanwhile, these variables are monitored by analysts as they project the 2026 Honduras coffee production forecast.

Exports grow 7.5%, average price eases

Honduran coffee exports are projected to reach 5.03 million bags in 2025/26, a 7.47 percent increase from the revised 4.96 million bags in 2024/25. For 2026/27, exports are forecast to rise another 9 percent to 5.50 million bags. As of April 2026, Honduras had already exported 3.17 million bags, a 38 percent increase from 2.30 million bags during the same period in 2024/25. The average export price was $439.47 per 60 kg bag, a 2.70 percent decrease from $451.70, but total export value jumped 33 percent to $1.39 billion. These impressive results play a pivotal role in shaping the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 and future export trends.

Sales contracts for 2025/26 totaled 4.10 million bags, up 27 percent year on year. Honduras has expanded market access, including under its free trade agreement with South Korea, now the eleventh largest export market for coffee. Globally, Honduras ranks as the eighth largest coffee exporter, the third largest in the Americas, and the largest in Central America. Finally, the Honduras coffee production forecast 2026 continues to be an important reference for market participants and policy decisions.

Table 3: Top destinations for Honduran green coffee exports (2025, thousand 60 kg bags)
Country Volume (1,000 bags)
United States 1,476
Germany 983
Belgium 551
Italy 231
Japan 186
Canada 229
Sweden 149
United Kingdom 147

Domestic consumption and rising imports

Coffee consumption in Honduras is projected to increase 9 percent in 2026/27, supported by modest GDP growth of 3.8 to 4 percent. Per capita apparent consumption is estimated at 4 to 5 kilograms per year. The growing presence of coffee bars in shopping malls, gas stations, and supermarkets, along with a young population consuming diverse coffee drinks, drives demand. Keurig coffee pods and machines are a new trend sold at supermarket chains. It is clear that changing consumption patterns also play into the nation’s coffee production forecast 2026 for Honduras.

Despite being a major producer, Honduras imports coffee to meet domestic demand for soluble coffee and lower cost blends. Total imports are projected to reach 160,000 bags in 2026/27, up 16.8 percent from 137,000 bags in 2025/26. In 2024/25, green coffee bean imports totaled 96,216 bags, primarily from Nicaragua (91,731 bags). Soluble coffee imports from October 2024 through February 2025 reached 30,992 bags, up from 27,516 bags the previous year. Key suppliers included Mexico, the United States, Colombia, Guatemala, India, Malaysia, and Costa Rica. Market dynamics that affect imports are increasingly relevant for the Honduras coffee production forecast looking ahead to 2026.

Differentiated coffee: a sharp shift in early 2025/26

During the 2024/25 harvest, 2.6 million 60 kg bags of differentiated coffee (certified and specialty) were sold, accounting for 55 percent of total exports. The five leading certifications were UTZ, Organic, Fair Trade/Organic, 4C, and Rainforest Alliance. However, preliminary data for 2025/26 shows a significant decline: differentiated coffee fell to 37 percent of total volume, or 1.24 million bags exported to date. This 15 percentage point drop may reflect timing of shipments, production challenges, or evolving market dynamics. Final figures will determine if this is a temporary fluctuation or a sustained trend. The results for differentiated segments will ultimately affect 2026 Honduras coffee production forecast calculations.

Table 4: Differentiated coffee production (thousand 60 kg bags, harvest seasons)
Harvest season Differentiated coffee Total harvest % participation
2019/20 3,020 5,506 55%
2020/21 3,220 5,873 55%
2021/22 2,523 4,701 54%
2022/23 3,087 5,342 58%
2023/24 2,610 4,687 56%
2024/25 2,436 4,804 52%
2025/26* 1,242 3,325 37%
* preliminary figures to April 2026. Source: IHCAFE

Specialty coffee in Honduras is typically grown above 3,000 feet. Currently, specialty coffees are produced under 22 programs including UTZ, 4C, Rainforest Alliance, Organic, Bird Friendly, Starbucks C.A.F.E. Practices, and Cup of Excellence. The overall quality of exported coffee in 2025/26 was classified as 49 percent Strictly High Grown (SHG), 43 percent High Grade (HG), and 9 percent Standard Grade (STD). With specialty coffee trends evolving, analysts will adjust the Honduras coffee production and exports forecast for 2026 accordingly.

Table 5: Quality exports in MY 2025/26 (60 kg bags, to date)
Quality grade Volume (bags) Average price (USD) Share of volume
SHG (Strictly High Grown) 1,618,979 $440.19 49%
HG (High Grade) 1,420,051 $448.27 43%
SL (Screen size >18) 286,479 $361.44 9%

Small producers and policy support

Many small and medium coffee producers face financial constraints, with limited access to credit. According to IHCAFE data for 2024/25, 86,895 small farmers harvested 179,271 hectares and produced 2.63 million bags. Medium producers (6,359 farmers) produced 1.66 million bags, and 374 large farmers produced 515,533 bags. Their contributions are notable in the broader context of the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026.

Table 6: Producers by size, area harvested and production (2024/25)
Farmer type Farmers registered Area harvested (Ha) Production (60 kg bags)
Small 86,895 179,271 2,627,164
Medium 6,359 85,040 1,661,733
Large 374 21,246 515,533

The government has implemented several measures to support the sector, including a sales tax exemption on coffee (Decree 352 2022) that provides fiscal relief of approximately $183 million. IHCAFE’s “Renew without stopping Production” program supports 33,000 producers covering 250,000 blocks. A climate change policy aims to foster resilience through six five year phases from 2022 to 2050. The National Coffee Council, the highest regulatory body, guides policy on production, climate change, labor, and gender inclusion. The sector adopted a Gender Inclusion Policy in 2021. Policy initiatives such as these directly impact Honduras coffee production forecasts for 2026 and beyond.

As of March 2026, IHCAFE continues providing technical support to help growers meet the European Union Deforestation Regulation, aiming to reduce deforestation tied to agricultural production and foster environmentally responsible supply chains. Overall, actions to comply with international standards also influence the Honduras coffee production forecast for 2026 as the industry adapts to global changes.

Methodological note: All figures are based on the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report “Coffee Annual – Tegucigalpa – Honduras – HO2026-0002” published April 29, 2026. Marketing years (MY) run from October to September. Differentiated coffee includes certified and specialty coffees. No data from outside the report has been used. Projections for MY 2026/27 are preliminary and subject to revision.

 

Korean Innovation Transforms Coffee Waste into High-Performance Thermal Insulation

SEOUL – Qahwa World

As the global search intensifies for effective solutions to both the climate crisis and the growing burden of organic waste, a recent scientific breakthrough offers an unexpected answer from within a coffee cup. A study published in Biochar (2026) reveals that researchers from Jeonbuk National University have developed a high-performance thermal insulation material made entirely from coffee waste. In other words, the team successfully created coffee waste thermal insulation with remarkable properties.

Led by Sung Jin Kim and Seong Yun Kim, the research team successfully engineered an eco-friendly material that matches the efficiency of top-tier petroleum-based industrial insulators. This development marks an important milestone in coffee waste thermal insulation innovation.

  • The Context: Millions of Tons of Coffee Waste

Coffee is the second most traded commodity in the world after crude oil. This immense global consumption generates approximately 8 million tons of spent coffee grounds (SCG) annually. Most of this waste ends up in landfills, where it decomposes and releases methane, a greenhouse gas significantly more potent than carbon dioxide, or is incinerated, contributing to air pollution.

This environmental challenge provided the foundation for the study, which aims to convert coffee waste into a valuable resource for the construction industry by using it for coffee waste thermal insulation.

  • The Technical Challenge: Enhancing Porosity

The effectiveness of thermal insulation depends largely on a material’s ability to trap air, as stagnant air is a natural insulator. However, raw coffee waste has relatively low porosity, around 46 percent, making it unsuitable for direct use.

To overcome this, researchers subjected the coffee waste to a controlled carbonization process at 700 degrees Celsius. Unlike conventional methods that use inert atmospheres, this process was conducted in an ambient atmosphere, allowing oxygen to interact with the material. This reaction expanded the internal structure, increasing porosity to an impressive 71 percent.

The resulting material, known as biochar, features a network of macropores that effectively trap insulating air. Therefore, the study showed that coffee waste thermal insulation could provide significant benefits compared to traditional options.

  • Breakthrough Innovation: Pore Restoration Technology

A major obstacle emerged when integrating the porous biochar with binding materials. Typically, liquid polymers seep into and clog pores, reducing insulation performance.

To address this, the team developed an innovative pore restoration technique:

Protective mixture: Biochar is combined with a green solvent, propylene glycol.
Molecular shielding: The solvent temporarily fills the pores and prevents the binding polymer, ethyl cellulose, from entering during processing.
Final evaporation: After forming the panels, the solvent is removed under vacuum conditions, restoring the material’s porous structure.

This process enabled the material to achieve a thermal conductivity of 0.04 W m⁻¹ K⁻¹, comparable to conventional polystyrene insulation without the associated environmental harm.

  • Real-World Applications: Smarter Solar Buildings

The study extended beyond laboratory testing to simulate real-world applications, particularly in building-integrated photovoltaic systems. Solar panels generate electricity but also produce significant heat that can increase indoor cooling demands.

When the coffee-based insulation was applied beneath solar panels, it effectively reduced heat transfer and kept indoor spaces cooler. This dual-function solution addresses both waste management and energy efficiency.

  • Sustainability and Biodegradability

Unlike traditional insulation materials, which can persist in the environment for centuries, the coffee-based material is biodegradable. Tests showed that it lost more than 10 percent of its weight within 21 days when exposed to natural enzymes, indicating its potential to return safely to the environment as a carbon-rich soil additive.

  • A Vision for the Future

This innovation represents more than just a new building material. It reflects a broader shift toward total sustainability in the coffee sector. By transforming waste into a high-value construction resource, the research opens pathways for collaboration between coffee producers and the building industry.

It is a compelling example of how science can convert everyday waste into advanced solutions that support environmental protection and sustainable urban development, with coffee waste thermal insulation standing out as a promising advancement.

Global Roadmap to Accelerate the Genetic Improvement of Robusta Coffee

Dubai – Qahwa World

At a time when the global coffee sector stands at a historic crossroads, the journal Frontiers in Plant Science has published one of the most significant research papers of the last decade. It is not merely an academic study but a “rescue document” for the future of coffee. The paper, led by Dr. Robert Kawuki, a Robusta breeding expert at World Coffee Research (WCR), with the participation of 14 researchers representing eight international programs across three continents, outlines for the first time a clear technological path to accelerate the genetic improvement of Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora).

  • Robusta: From “Alternative” to Economic “Pillar”

The face of the global coffee market has changed dramatically. While Robusta represented only 25% of global production in the 1990s, its share has jumped today to exceed 40%. This rise was not accidental; it came in response to the resilience of this species and its ability to withstand higher temperatures compared to the sensitive “Arabica.” However, the study emphasizes that Robusta did not receive its due share of research and genetic development throughout the last century, leaving it operating far below its potential productive and qualitative capacities.

  • Anatomy of Obstacles: Why Have We Been Delayed for Decades?

The study identifies the “wounds” that hindered the crop’s development, as researchers pinpointed three main obstacles:

Fragmentation of Genetic Resources: National breeding programs have operated in isolated islands, with an almost total absence of exchange of genetic material and shared data.

Long Breeding Cycles: The process of developing and distributing a new variety to farmers takes more than 20 years. The research describes this duration as “catastrophic” given the accelerating pace of climate change, which alters the farming environment within a single generation of farmers.

Weak Technical Investment: Robusta has remained reliant on traditional selection methods, while other crops have made massive leaps using genomics and artificial intelligence.

  • The Roadmap: A New “Operating System” for the Industry

The most important conclusion of the paper is the necessity of transforming coffee breeding from “research projects” into a “shared global infrastructure.” The recommendations are summarized in core points:

Demand-Led Breeding: For the first time, there is an emphasis on designing coffee varieties based on “Product Profiles.” This means the researcher must consider the farmer’s needs (high yield and resistance) and the market’s needs (sensory quality) before beginning the hybridization process.

Genetic Acceleration Technologies: The paper calls for the immediate integration of Genomics-assisted selection and digital phenotyping tools. These tools allow for the evaluation of thousands of seedlings in record time and with extreme accuracy, reducing the variety development cycle by more than 50%.

The 3-Year Rule: The study revealed a stunning technical result: evaluating a tree’s productivity in its first three years provides an accurate indicator of over 80% of its long-term performance. This discovery alone will save breeding programs years of unnecessary waiting.

  • The 64% Alliance: A Global Transcontinental Force

What gives this research paper immense executive credibility is the participation of researchers from countries that control 64% of the world’s Robusta exports: Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, India, Uganda, Ghana, and Rwanda. These partners now form the backbone of the “Innovea” global network, which seeks to unify genetic breeding efforts to serve as the “infrastructure” serving coffee farmers worldwide.

  • Final Recommendations to Ensure Supply Sustainability

The research paper concludes with an urgent call to decision-makers in the coffee industry: Investing in Robusta improvement is not a luxury; it is “insurance” against potential climatic collapse. The study recommends:

Increasing Sustainable Funding: Moving away from short-term grants toward building investment funds that support long-term breeding programs.

Enhancing Access Pathways: There is no benefit in innovating excellent varieties if they do not reach the farmer quickly and at an affordable price.

Cross-Border Collaboration: Breaking down barriers of secrecy and exchanging genetic resources is the only way to face shared global threats like “leaf rust” and drought.

Conclusion:

The future of global coffee is now linked to the seriousness of implementing this “roadmap.” Robusta is not just a “cheaper alternative” to Arabica; it is the crop that will carry the burden of sustaining the global cup in the coming decades, and scientific research is the only weapon we have to make this cup resilient, profitable, and of high quality.

Coffee’s Hidden Health Boost Goes Beyond Caffeine

Dubai – Qahwa World

A recent study published in Nature Communications reveals that coffee’s impact reaches well beyond its caffeine content. Researchers report that both regular and decaffeinated coffee can influence gut bacteria in ways that may support mood, lower stress levels, and enhance brain function.

The research, led by scientists at APC Microbiome Ireland, examined how coffee interacts with the gut microbiome a vast network of microorganisms essential to overall health. The findings suggest that coffee plays a role in shaping this internal ecosystem, with potential benefits for emotional and mental well-being.

  • Exploring the Gut–Brain Link

“Coffee is more than just caffeine it’s a complex dietary factor that interacts with our gut microbes, our metabolism, and even our emotional well-being,” said John Cryan, PhD, principal investigator and co-author of the study.

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The research focused on the gut–brain axis, a bidirectional communication system connecting the digestive system and the brain. Scientists aimed to understand whether coffee’s influence on mood and cognition could occur independently of caffeine.

  • Study Design and Approach

The study included 62 participants, divided evenly between regular coffee drinkers—consuming three to five cups per day and non-drinkers. Researchers gathered psychological evaluations, dietary data, and biological samples such as stool and urine.

You can also read: Italian-Style Coffee Linked to Lower Risk of Common Liver Disease

Participants who regularly consumed coffee were asked to stop for two weeks. Afterward, both groups were reintroduced to coffee under controlled, blinded conditions, with some receiving caffeinated coffee and others decaf. This setup enabled researchers to isolate the effects of coffee on the gut microbiome while monitoring changes in stress, mood, and cognitive performance.

Main Outcomes

  • The results showed that both types of coffee were linked to several positive effects:
  • Measurable changes in gut microbiome activity.
  • Lower levels of perceived stress, depression, and impulsivity.
  • Better mood and improved focus.
  • Reduced anxiety and inflammation risk in those consuming caffeinated coffee.
  • Enhanced learning and memory associated with decaffeinated coffee.
  • Increased presence of beneficial gut bacteria tied to digestion and emotional health.

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Researchers identified a rise in helpful bacteria, including Eggerthella species and Cryptobacterium curtum, known for supporting digestive balance and limiting harmful microbes. An increase in Firmicutes bacteria associated with positive emotional states was also observed, particularly among women.

  • The Role of Decaf Coffee

Differences between the effects of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee suggest that compounds other than caffeine, such as polyphenols, may contribute significantly to coffee’s mental and cognitive benefits.

“Our findings reveal how coffee influences both the microbiome and neurological responses,” Cryan noted. “It may change how microbes function collectively and the metabolites they produce.”

  • Rethinking Coffee’s Role

As scientific interest in diet-based strategies for gut health continues to grow, this study positions coffee as more than a daily ritual. It may also serve as a valuable component of a balanced lifestyle that supports both digestive health and mental well-being.