Prices in retail and cafés continue to climb as the market braces for further increases in 2026
Moscow – Qahwa World
Russia’s coffee market experienced a sharp rise in prices throughout 2025, a trend that has become clearly visible to consumers both in retail stores and in cafés. As 2026 begins, prices for instant coffee and coffee beans remain at elevated levels, reinforcing concerns that a daily cup of coffee is becoming an increasingly expensive habit.
- Sustained Growth Over Three Years
Over the past three years, coffee prices in Russia have followed a steady upward trajectory. According to data from Rosstat, the average price of one kilogram of instant coffee stood at 2,638 rubles in January 2022. By the end of that year, the price had risen by approximately 25%. Although a brief decline was recorded in 2023, it proved short-lived.
From January 2024 onward, prices resumed their upward movement, reaching 3,500 rubles per kilogram by December. In November 2025, instant coffee hit a new record high of 4,152 rubles per kilogram. Overall, instant coffee prices increased by nearly 60% over three years.
Coffee beans followed a more gradual but largely uninterrupted upward path. In January 2022, one kilogram cost 1,136 rubles, rising to 1,490 rubles by the end of that year. Prices remained relatively stable throughout 2023 before entering a new growth phase in 2024. By November 2025, the price of coffee beans reached 2,061 rubles per kilogram—an increase of roughly 80% over three years.
Industry experts note that official statistics reflect average market dynamics, which may underestimate the real financial impact felt by consumers in day-to-day purchases.
- Key Drivers Behind the Price Increase
At the beginning of 2025, market forecasts suggested coffee prices could rise by 30–40%. In practice, price increases in several segments exceeded those expectations.
Market participants report that over the past two to three years, prices for many popular brands of ground and whole-bean coffee in retail stores have risen by 50–100% compared to 2021 levels.
The primary drivers of this trend include Russia’s near-total reliance on imported coffee, elevated global prices for coffee raw materials, and fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. Additional pressure has come from higher costs associated with international payments, logistics, and packaging materials, all of which increase production costs before roasting even begins.
Rising raw material costs have also affected the foodservice sector. During 2025, prices for coffee-based beverages increased by an average of 15–30% year-on-year. In certain formats—particularly 100% arabica and specialty coffee—the increase reached 35–45%.
In many cases, cafés implemented price increases gradually, introducing several small adjustments over the course of the year rather than a single sharp hike.
At the same time, industry representatives emphasize that profit margins remain limited. The cost of coffee itself accounts for only a small portion of the final price of a cup, while operating expenses—such as rent, wages, and taxes—make up the bulk of costs.
Forecasting coffee prices for 2026 remains challenging due to multiple external variables, including weather conditions in producing countries, exchange rate movements, and the stability of global supply chains. Potential changes in tax policy could also add further pressure.
Current expectations point to continued price growth, though at a more moderate pace. Under a baseline scenario, prices could rise by 8–15% over the year if currency and logistics conditions remain relatively stable. In the event of renewed volatility, increases could be higher, particularly in higher-quality coffee segments.
Despite rising prices, demand for coffee in Russia remains resilient. Strong consumer attachment to the product has allowed the market to adapt to higher price levels without a significant decline in consumption.
- A New Phase for the Coffee Market
Experts broadly agree that Russia’s coffee market is entering a new phase. While the period of sharp and sudden price shocks may be easing, a return to previously low price levels appears unlikely in the near term.
Instead, the market is expected to settle into a phase of relative price stabilization at higher levels, with future pricing shaped by currency dynamics, competition, and consumers’ ability to adjust to the evolving market environment.
