Category: Studies

Coffee Market Weekly: Arabica Futures Fall as Macro Volatility and Origin Risks Intensify

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee markets ended the week under renewed pressure, with Arabica futures retreating sharply after multiple failed attempts to break above key technical resistance levels. Broader macroeconomic volatility, shifting geopolitical sentiment, and emerging supply risks from origin countries combined to shape a turbulent trading environment across both Arabica and Robusta markets.

Arabica Futures: Failure Above 300 Triggers Selloff

The July 2026 Arabica contract (KCN26), which remained the most active benchmark during the reporting period, opened the week on a volatile but broadly stable footing. Early trading on Monday saw prices rally from an opening level of 294.60 cents per pound, briefly pushing above the psychologically significant 300 cents per pound threshold. However, the move quickly lost momentum, with the market failing to establish sustained trading above this level.

By Tuesday, modest gains of 1.35 cents per pound were recorded, supported by tightening short-term supply conditions. Market sentiment was further underpinned by export data from Cecafe, which indicated a 10 percent year-on-year decline in Brazilian coffee exports for March 2026, reinforcing concerns over near-term availability.

Wednesday marked the third consecutive session in which the market attempted and failed to sustain levels above 300 cents per pound. The inability to hold above this technical resistance level contributed to a gradual deterioration in sentiment, although the market still closed marginally higher on the day.

The tone shifted decisively on Thursday. Following a strengthening US dollar and a lack of buying interest above the 300 level, Arabica futures broke sharply lower, falling below 290 cents per pound within the first two hours of trading. The market reached an intraday low of 287.10 cents per pound before recovering slightly into the close.

However, selling pressure persisted into Friday, with no meaningful rebound in sentiment. The week concluded with Arabica futures settling at 284.25 cents per pound, marking a clear downside move and a rejection of recent resistance levels.

Currency Markets: Geopolitics Drive Volatility in FX

Foreign exchange markets were heavily influenced by developments surrounding US–Iran relations, with shifting geopolitical signals driving volatility across major currency pairs.

At the start of the week, both GBP/USD and EUR/USD weakened following the breakdown of US–Iran negotiations over the weekend. Sterling opened at 1.34, while the euro began at 1.16, reflecting a broad-based strengthening of the US dollar amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Midweek sentiment improved after reports emerged suggesting that diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran had resumed. This development supported a recovery in risk appetite, pushing GBP/USD above 1.35 and EUR/USD above 1.18. During this period, the US Dollar Index (DXY) eased to just above 98, reflecting a temporary shift away from safe-haven assets.

However, sentiment reversed again towards the end of the week. Markets reacted to the announcement that the Strait of Hormuz had been fully reopened to commercial shipping for the duration of the ceasefire. The news reduced concerns over supply disruption risks and encouraged a renewed rotation into risk assets.

As a result, the US dollar weakened further, with the DXY falling back below 98, approaching a seven-week low. Currency markets remained sensitive to ongoing geopolitical developments, with volatility expected to persist.

Origin Markets: Climate and Supply Risks Build

Colombia: Weather Disruption Reduces Output Expectations

In Colombia, coffee production is expected to decline compared with both 2024 and 2025 levels. Persistent and excessive rainfall has disrupted key stages of crop development, including flowering, cherry maturation, and bean formation.

Southern growing regions have been particularly affected, with reduced sunlight hours compounding the impact of heavy rainfall. While a natural production correction was anticipated following a strong prior year, current climatic conditions are increasingly viewed as a key downside risk to output.

Vietnam and Indonesia: El Niño Risk Intensifies

In Vietnam and parts of Indonesia, market attention is increasingly focused on the potential development of a stronger El Niño event during the current cycle.

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 25 percent probability that the ENSO positive phase could reach “super” intensity. Such an event is defined by central-equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures at least two degrees Celsius above average.

Historically, only three super El Niño events have been recorded in the past 40 years, with the most recent occurring in 2015–2016.

For key coffee-producing regions such as Vietnam and Indonesia, El Niño conditions typically bring drier weather patterns. A stronger event could result in prolonged drought, elevated temperatures, and water stress, all of which would materially impact coffee production.

Vietnam, as the world’s largest producer of Robusta coffee, is particularly exposed to these risks. Any significant reduction in output would likely tighten global supply conditions and could provide upward support to LIFFE Robusta futures.

Conclusion

The coffee market enters the new reporting period with a softer technical outlook for Arabica, heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, and increasing attention on weather-related supply risks across key origin regions. While short-term price action remains driven by dollar strength and risk sentiment, medium-term fundamentals continue to be shaped by production uncertainty in South America and Asia.

 

EFICO Coffee Sourcing Strategy 2025 and Global Market Trends

Posted on by Qahwa World
Dubai – Qahwa World

The coffee market has always been volatile, but in recent years fluctuations have intensified. While prices were historically shaped by harvest expectations, weather patterns, and supply–demand dynamics, financial market mechanisms, including speculative trading and algorithm-driven strategies are increasingly amplifying price swings, sometimes exceeding underlying supply fundamentals.

At the same time, climate change remains the most significant long-term challenge facing the sector. Across producing regions, erratic weather patterns—from prolonged droughts to unexpected rainfall and extreme storms—disrupt harvest cycles, reduce yields, and create growing uncertainty throughout the global coffee value chain.

In 2025, several of these pressures converged. Arabica prices surged on the New York C-Market amid drought-affected Brazilian crops and delayed harvests in parts of Central America. Logistical bottlenecks, geopolitical tensions, and lingering trade policies—including tariffs introduced under the Trump administration—added further complexity to the global trading environment. Meanwhile, regulatory developments in the European Union—notably the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and updated organic standards—introduced additional compliance requirements for actors across the coffee value chain.

Despite this challenging environment, EFICO achieved strategic growth in 2025, moving more coffee than ever while continuing to build on nearly a century of experience in connecting coffee value chain partners. Through strategic sourcing and transparent collaboration with partner farmers, cooperatives, exporters, and roasters, EFICO works to strengthen every link in the chain—helping partners navigate market volatility, regulatory complexity, and climate-related challenges.

EFICO | Connecting the coffee value chain

For nearly a century, EFICO has connected coffee value chain partners through long-term, trusted relationships that foster resilience and shared growth. Through its origin offices and green coffee trading teams, EFICO works closely with partner farmers, cooperatives, and exporters, providing market access, technical guidance, and sustainability support while maintaining lasting partnerships with partner roasters worldwide.

Complementing its operational sourcing work, the EFICO Foundation supports coffee-producing communities worldwide—structurally supporting coffee farmers and their families while positively impacting livelihoods, prosperity, and the environment.

Purpose-driven local partnerships

EFICO’s sourcing strategy is built on purpose-driven partnerships across the coffee value chain, starting at origin. By collaborating closely with cooperatives, local exporters, and trusted supply partners, EFICO works to ensure a transparent and resilient coffee supply while reinvesting value locally in coffee-producing regions.

In 2025, 85% of EFICO’s coffee continued to be sourced from local actors, reflecting the company’s long-standing commitment to locally rooted supply chains. Within this share, cooperatives represented 23% of total sourcing volumes, while local exporters accounted for 57%, showing a slight shift compared to 2024. International exporters remained stable at 15% for the third consecutive year.

These long-term partnerships support local economies, strengthen farming communities, and reinforce resilience throughout the broader coffee value chain—particularly in times of market volatility and environmental uncertainty.

EFICO’s sourcing offices in Ethiopia, Central America, and Brazil remain central to this strategy. Beyond operational hubs, they serve as centers of adaptive collaboration, connecting EFICO directly to coffee-growing regions. By working closely with partner farmers, cooperatives, and suppliers on the ground, these origin offices help partner farmers navigate fluctuating market conditions, climate challenges, and evolving regulatory requirements, while strengthening relationships with partner roasters worldwide.

Certified, verified vs non-verified coffee

In 2025, EFICO recorded remarkable growth in absolute terms, with certified volumes increasing by 34% compared to last year, while shares among Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, and Organic remained stable, reflecting continued commitment to certifications.

Rainforest Alliance held the largest share at 64%, also leading in absolute growth, while Fairtrade and Organic recorded the largest relative growth, recovering from the decline observed in 2024 as premiums increased and market prices remained high.

A shift in origins was observed, with a lower share of Organic and Fairtrade sourced from Central America in favour of Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

However, overall coffee sourcing volumes increased even faster than certified volumes. As a result, the relative share of certified and verified coffee represented 49% of total sourcing—marking the third consecutive year of modest relative decrease.

Despite this shift, EFICO’s sourcing remains above the global market average, as reported by the Global Coffee Platform in 2024, which registered 47% sustainable sourcing under third-party schemes.

These dynamics reflect broader market conditions. During periods of high and volatile coffee prices, certification models can become more complex for both producers and buyers, as certification costs and administrative requirements must be balanced against market opportunities.

Strategic sourcing: key origins

The world map provides a 2025 snapshot of coffee origins, showing the shares of certified, verified, and non-verified coffee. These patterns vary across EFICO’s key coffee-producing regions, reflecting differences in sourcing volumes, certifications, and partnerships.

For a more detailed view, EFICO analysed sourcing data from its major origins—Brazil, Central America, and Ethiopia—and included Uganda as a key Robusta origin without a permanent EFICO office.

Brazil

Brazil remained EFICO’s largest sourcing origin in 2025, accounting for approximately one-third of total sourcing volumes. The country continues to provide high-quality Arabica coffees that form an essential component of both blends and single-origin offerings.

In 2025, 47% of EFICO’s Brazilian sourcing was certified. An additional 17% was verified under EFICO’s internal sustainability standards, including 6% independently verified and 11% aligned with partner-based sustainability systems. This brings the total share meeting certification or verification criteria to 64%.

At the same time, 85% of Brazilian coffee volumes were sourced from local actors, reinforcing EFICO’s long-standing commitment to strong local partnerships.

While certified volumes increased in absolute terms, the relative share of certified coffee declined slightly as conventional volumes expanded more rapidly amid strong market demand.

Central America

Central America remained one of EFICO’s most important regions for certified sourcing in 2025. 66% of coffees sourced from the region were certified, with Rainforest Alliance representing the largest share and showing the strongest growth.

Fairtrade sourcing also showed steady growth during the year, while Organic-certified coffees declined both in absolute volumes and relative share.

This trend reflects a combination of market dynamics and regulatory developments: high and volatile coffee prices influenced producer and buyer decisions, while the increasing complexity of complying with updated EU organic requirements made sourcing fully compliant Organic coffees more challenging in some producing countries.

Across the region, 79% of EFICO’s sourcing came from local actors, reinforcing long-standing partnerships with cooperatives and exporters.

Through the ongoing work of the EFICO Foundation, EFICO supports projects that promote training and education, sustainable income, infrastructure support with the aim of positively impacting coffee farmers’ livelihoods, prosperity, and environment.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia experienced significant growth in sourcing volumes in 2025, with total volumes more than doubling compared to the previous year. While much of this increase occurred in conventional coffees, certified volumes also expanded.

In total, 21% of Ethiopian coffees sourced by EFICO were certified, with an additional 19% meeting EFICO’s internal sustainability standards, bringing the total share aligned with sustainability criteria to 40%.

Local partnerships remain central to EFICO’s sourcing approach in Ethiopia, with 80% of volumes sourced from local actors.

A key partner in this development is KURU, EFICO’s long-standing sourcing partner in Ethiopia, which expanded its operations to eight washing and collecting stations in 2025—four more than in 2024.

This expansion strengthens processing capacity and traceability while reinforcing EFICO’s direct connection to coffee-producing communities.

Uganda

Uganda is included in this 2025 analysis because sourcing volumes from the country have grown significantly, making it a strategic addition to EFICO’s Robusta portfolio.

Within just two years, Uganda has become EFICO’s third-most important origin for Robusta coffee, even though sourcing remains predominantly conventional.

79% of Ugandan volumes were sourced from local actors, highlighting EFICO’s commitment to building sustainable, locally rooted supply relationships, even in regions without a permanent origin office.

EUDR readiness & supplier engagement

In 2025, EFICO continued its efforts to ensure compliance with the EU Deforestation Regulation, despite the late announcement of another one-year delay in its entry into application.

By the end of the year, 93% of geolocation datasets submitted for EUDR contracts were approved according to EFICO’s strictest standards and assessments.

A major step was the launch of EFICO’s supplier portal, improving data collection, traceability, segregation at shipment level, and annual legality reporting, including topics such as human rights and traceability.

Togo field engagement

Togo was selected for focused engagement to support suppliers less familiar with geolocation and traceability requirements.

Since early 2024, EFICO has trained local field teams to collect, harmonise, and validate farmer and plot-level data. Over 2025, nearly 10,000 GPS points were collected.

A second field visit in December 2025 implemented ground truthing procedures to verify deforestation alerts and assess multi-tier supply chains.

Most coffee plots are managed under agroforestry systems. Satellite-based alerts initially identified potential deforestation risks, but field verification ruled out most cases, confirming only a few instances linked to expansion into previously forested land.

Non-compliant plots were segregated within EFICO’s traceability systems, while farmers received training on deforestation prevention and sustainable land-use alternatives.

EFICO’s 2025 strategy highlights a balance between market resilience, sustainability, regulatory readiness, and long-term partnerships across the global coffee value chain.

Russia’s Green Coffee Market Records Historic Growth in 2026

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Mocow-QahwaWorld

Russia’s green coffee market posted significant growth in 2026, supported by rising global prices and sustained domestic demand, according to a recent analysis by ROIF Expert. The expansion reflects not only higher market value but also increased import volumes and consumption levels, reinforcing Russia’s position as a key destination for global coffee exporters.

Market Value Jumps by 92 Billion Rubles

The market value of green coffee increased by approximately 92 billion rubles between its lowest and highest recent levels, marking one of the strongest gains in the sector. The growth is largely attributed to higher global coffee prices, influenced by weather-related challenges in major producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam.

While import volumes continued to rise, value growth outpaced physical expansion, reflecting sustained price pressure across global supply chains.

Imports Remain the Core Driver

Russia relies almost entirely on imports to meet its green coffee demand. Between 2025 and 2026, total import volumes reached around 286,000 tons.

  • Import value increased by 45.5% in the first nine months of 2025, reaching $924.7 million
  • Vietnam recorded a 1.5x increase in exports
  • Brazil nearly doubled its export volumes
  • Indonesia strengthened its position among top suppliers with 1.6x growth

Despite ongoing sanctions, supply flows remained stable. The primary challenge involved payment restrictions, prompting companies to adapt through alternative channels, including intermediary countries such as Turkey, China, and the UAE, as well as increased direct shipping routes.

Consumption Reaches Record Levels

Consumption indicators show continued growth, with per capita coffee consumption reaching its highest recorded levels. Approximately 70% of the population consumes coffee daily, while a majority consider it an essential part of their routine.

Home consumption is expected to grow by 15% by the end of 2026, alongside increasing demand for specialty coffee and whole beans.

Shifts in Supply Chains

Supply chains are gradually shifting toward Asian producers, particularly Vietnam and Indonesia, while overall trade flows remain relatively stable. At the same time, the market continues to face pricing pressures and logistical risks linked to geopolitical factors.

Outlook Through 2033

The baseline scenario outlined in the report suggests steady growth over the coming years, supported by consistent demand and expanding import activity.

  • Projected annual growth between 3% and 5.5%
  • Moderate increase in global price levels
  • Continued rise in per capita consumption
  • Further diversification of import sources

The market is expected to maintain positive momentum, demonstrating resilience in the face of external pressures.

Implications for Industry Stakeholders

The Russian market offers strong opportunities for global exporters, given its full dependence on imports. Domestic players are increasingly focused on higher-quality offerings and cost management, while consumers benefit from a broader range of products.

From an investment perspective, the sector shows the ability to convert price pressures into growth drivers, enhancing its medium-term appeal.

Conclusion

Russia’s green coffee market in 2026 reflects a mature and resilient sector. The sharp increase in market value and sustained demand indicate a continued upward trajectory, with growth expected to extend through the end of the decade.

 

Global Coffee Market to Hit $380B by 2033

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Dubai – Qahwa World

The global coffee market is advancing rapidly, driven by strong consumer demand that shows no signs of slowing. Around half a trillion cups of coffee are consumed worldwide each year—more than 2 billion cups every day—making coffee one of the world’s most popular daily beverages and a core pillar of the global beverage industry.

According to the latest data from Grand View Research (as of early 2026), the market was valued at approximately USD 249.34 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 380.28 billion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% from 2026 to 2033. This growth continues despite economic pressures, climate-related challenges in key producing regions, and evolving consumer preferences. Other industry analyses present slightly more conservative estimates, ranging from $214 billion to $239 billion by 2031–2033, depending on methodology, but all projections indicate continued expansion.

Consumption Leaders: Volume vs. Per Capita

The United States remains the largest coffee-consuming country in total volume, supported by a large population and a deeply rooted coffee culture. On average, Americans drink around three cups per day, resulting in significant national consumption.

On a per-capita basis, Northern Europe leads global rankings. Recent data suggests Luxembourg ranks among the highest per-person consumers at over five cups daily, influenced in part by cross-border commuting. Finland also maintains a leading position, with approximately 3–4 cups per person per day and annual consumption of around 10–12 kg per capita, among the highest levels globally.

This strong Nordic consumption culture is deeply embedded in daily life. In Finland, coffee is a social staple, commonly consumed black and frequently enjoyed during regular coffee breaks known as “kahvihetki.”

Asia-Pacific: The Fastest Growing Region

While established markets are maturing, the Asia-Pacific region is emerging as a major growth engine for the global coffee industry. Rising incomes, rapid urbanization, and a young, digitally connected population are driving demand across China, Japan, India, and other markets.

China has surpassed the United States in terms of branded coffee shop presence, with more than 50,000 outlets and rapidly expanding chains such as Luckin Coffee. In India, café culture continues to develop and is expected to significantly expand market potential by 2030. Indonesia has also experienced strong growth, with domestic consumption reportedly tripling since pre-pandemic levels.

The Asia-Pacific coffee market is projected to grow faster than the global average, with estimated CAGR ranges of 6–8% in recent forecasts. Growth is being supported by premium café expansion, ready-to-drink coffee products, and shifting preferences in urban areas away from traditional tea consumption.

The Quality Shift: Specialty Coffee and Arabica Dominance

Global coffee consumption is not only increasing in volume but also shifting toward higher quality. Arabica beans continue to dominate due to their smoother flavor profile, while demand for specialty coffee is accelerating, particularly among younger consumers.

Millennials and Gen Z consumers are increasingly prioritizing single-origin sourcing, traceability, and distinctive flavor profiles over mass-market products. The global specialty coffee segment is expanding faster than the broader market, with projected CAGR near 10.8% through 2033.

Convenience and Changing Lifestyles

Modern consumption habits are driving demand for convenience-focused coffee products. Capsules, instant coffee, liquid concentrates, and ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages are increasingly popular, allowing consumers to access premium coffee experiences at home, in the workplace, or on the move.

Sustainability and Supply Chain Pressures

Sustainability has become a central requirement in the coffee industry. Ethical sourcing, organic certification, and transparent supply chains are increasingly important to consumers, particularly in premium segments.

Many consumers are willing to pay higher prices for coffee that supports farmers, reduces environmental impact, and carries certifications such as Fair Trade or Rainforest Alliance. At the same time, climate change continues to pose risks to major coffee-growing regions, prompting greater focus on resilient crop varieties and sustainable farming practices.

Challenges and Market Outlook

The coffee sector faces increasing competition from alternative beverages, including tea, herbal infusions, energy drinks, and functional beverages, as consumers diversify their preferences toward health-oriented options.

Supply chain volatility, driven by weather events and geopolitical factors, also remains a persistent challenge for producers and roasters.

Despite these pressures, the long-term outlook for the coffee industry remains positive. Strong cultural demand, combined with innovation in product formats, sustainability initiatives, and experiential retail, is expected to support continued growth through the next decade.

From specialty cafés in Tokyo to espresso bars in Dubai and traditional filter coffee in Helsinki, global coffee culture continues to expand. The coming years are expected to bring greater product diversity, improved sustainability practices, and new consumption experiences for one of the world’s most widely enjoyed beverages.

Cell-Cultured Coffee Moves Closer to Market

Posted on by Qahwa World

Zurich  — Qahwa World

As climate change and surging global demand strain traditional coffee farming, a laboratory-grown alternative is moving from an experimental concept to a potential market contender. Cell-cultured coffee, produced by nurturing coffee plant cells in bioreactors and then harvesting, drying, roasting, and brewing the resulting biomass, has secured significant new funding and regulatory momentum over the past 18 months, according to industry developments and foundational research led by Professor Chahan Yeretzian.

Yeretzian, who retired in early 2026 as head of the Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW) Coffee Excellence Center after more than three decades of pioneering work, laid the analytical groundwork for this emerging category. His landmark 2024 study, published in ACS Food Science & Technology, provided the first rigorous, side-by-side chemical and sensory comparison of cell-cultured coffee (CC) and traditional farm-grown beans (TC). The paper’s three-step analytical platform, examining unroasted precursors, roasted volatiles, and brewed sensory profiles, demonstrated that while the two are chemically distinct, the lab-grown version can be optimized to deliver authentic coffee character.

The findings have since become a blueprint for commercial players. In February 2025, Zurich-based Food Brewer AG closed a CHF 5 million seed extension, bringing its total funding to approximately CHF 10 million. Strategic investors include Lindt & Sprüngli and Sparkalis, the venture arm of Puratos, both of which are actively testing the company’s coffee and cocoa biomass for potential integration into products. Food Brewer grows cells sourced locally in Switzerland, processes them through lyophilization and roasting, and is scaling production under controlled bioreactor conditions, precisely the approach Yeretzian’s research showed could preserve aroma precursors without relying on tropical agriculture.

You may read: A Cell-Cultured Coffee Revolution Gains Momentum

A parallel effort in Asia is also gaining traction. In April 2025, Singapore-based Another Food announced plans for large-scale commercialization, beginning in Singapore and expanding into Thailand and Malaysia. The startup positions its non-GMO, cell-derived coffee as a hedge against supply-chain volatility, price swings, and quality inconsistencies caused by climate impacts on conventional farming.

These developments echo the vision Yeretzian outlined in late 2024 interviews and earlier writings. “If we love coffee so much, can part of the supply come from sources that are less harmful to the environment and more efficient?” he asked. The 2024 paper reinforced that cell-cultured coffee need not merely imitate traditional beans but could expand the category. By adjusting precursor compounds, including sugars, amino acids, lipids, chlorogenic acids, and caffeine, scientists can explore novel flavor profiles beyond the constraints of the coffee bean’s natural matrix.

The study’s detailed results underscored both promise and challenges. Unroasted cell-cultured biomass showed dramatically higher monosaccharides (52% of dry weight, primarily glucose and fructose) but far lower levels of amino acids (0.07%), lipids (1.98%), chlorogenic acids (0.07%), caffeine (0.15%), and trigonelline (absent). After roasting in a custom nanoroaster, the aroma profile registered only about 40% of the intensity of traditional coffee, with fewer pyrazines, Strecker aldehydes, and guaiacols, but a pronounced dominance of furfurals (54% of volatiles versus 10–15% in conventional roasts). Sensory panels noted milder bitterness and acidity, lower extraction yields due to the powder-like structure, and reduced psychoactive effects resulting from lower caffeine and chlorogenic acid content.

Yeretzian and co-authors, including lead analyst Jaloliddin Khushvakov and VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland cell-culture expert Heiko Rischer, concluded that the bean’s physical structure acts as a “pressurized microreactor” essential for full flavor development. They emphasized that these differences are not insurmountable barriers; rather, they open doors to customization and hybrid products that blend cell-cultured and traditional coffee.

Regulatory pathways remain the primary hurdle. As a novel food, cell-cultured coffee requires formal approvals in major markets. Submissions are now under review in the United States, Singapore, and the European Union, with analysts projecting clearances within the next 12 to 24 months. Industry observers note that beanless surrogate coffees, which do not use coffee cellular material, have reached shelves more quickly, but cell-cultured versions benefit from a stronger scientific foundation and clearer environmental credentials.

Market forecasts reflect growing confidence. The global cell-cultured coffee sector, valued at roughly $173–362 million in 2024–2025, is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 16–21%, potentially reaching hundreds of millions of dollars by the early 2030s as production scales and costs decline.

Yeretzian has consistently framed cell-cultured coffee as a complement, not a replacement, for farm-grown beans. In his emeritus role, the research he championed continues to influence the Coffee Excellence Center and the startups now translating it into products. The 2024 paper’s analytical platform has already become an industry standard for evaluating any coffee alternative.

For an industry facing deforestation, carbon emissions, and unpredictable harvests, the convergence of Yeretzian’s decades of aroma chemistry expertise with fresh capital and regulatory progress marks a pivotal moment. If approvals materialize as expected, the first commercial cell-cultured coffees could appear on shelves or in blends by late 2027 or 2028, not as a wholesale substitute for tradition, but as a scientifically validated innovation that could help secure coffee’s future while expanding its sensory possibilities.

Best Coffee Capsules in Russia 2026

Posted on by Qahwa World

Moscow — Qahwa World

A detailed market study published by VC.ru presents the top 20 coffee capsules in Russia for 2026, covering multiple systems, price segments, and consumer preferences.

The report reflects not only Russian consumer behavior but also wider trends across post-Soviet markets and global capsule coffee consumption patterns.

  • Based on sales volume and verified customer reviews
  • Includes budget, mid-range, and premium capsules
  • Growing demand for milk-based coffee drinks
  • Strong preference for multi-pack economic solutions

Top Selling Coffee Capsules

Product Description
Julius Meinl Lungo Forte Balanced espresso with chocolate notes and strong daily performance.
Julius Meinl Espresso Delizioso 100% Arabica with fruity acidity and nutty finish.
Drive Absolut Latte Macchiato Two-capsule milk coffee system with creamy texture.
Drive Absolut Espresso (96) Bulk pack designed for daily consumption efficiency.
Drive Absolut Espresso (16) Budget entry-level capsule option.
Single Cup Coffee Classic Multi-flavor tasting set with 5 coffee profiles.

Caffitaly & Di Maestri Systems

Product Description
Caffitaly Professional Classic Three blends in one introductory pack.
Caffitaly Cappuccino Instant milk-based cappuccino capsule.
Di Maestri Arabica (80) Large pack of smooth Arabica blend.
Di Maestri Arabica (30) Trial version for new users.
Caffitaly Prezioso Soft espresso with fruity chocolate notes.

Premium & Strong Coffee Capsules

Product Description
Carraro Aroma e Gusto Intenso Strong Italian blend with intensity level 12.
Nespresso Roma (30) Classic Italian espresso profile.
Nespresso Roma (50) Large pack for regular users.
Testa Rossa Arabica Arabica with berry and caramel notes.
Giosso Caramel Caramel flavored espresso capsule.
Dolce Gusto Cortado Espresso with light milk balance.

Market Insights

The Russian capsule coffee market continues to grow steadily due to convenience, consistent taste, and fast preparation time.

Consumers increasingly prefer larger packs and milk-based beverages, reshaping demand across all segments.

Coffee World — Global Coffee Market Analysis

Explore more reports

 

Nuclear Science Secures the Future of Coffee

Posted on by Qahwa World

How “Birth Control” for Pests is Saving the Global Brew

VIENNA – Qahwa World

In a landmark announcement, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have confirmed that nuclear science is now the primary shield protecting the world’s multibillion-dollar coffee industry from its most destructive adversary: the Mediterranean fruit fly.

The Invisible Threat to Your Morning Cup

While coffee is one of the most beloved beverages globally, it is also a favorite target for the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata). The biological damage is devastatingly precise. The female fly deposits eggs into the coffee berries, and once the larvae hatch, they feed on the internal pulp.

New technical data released by the IAEA and FAO clarifies that this process does more than just damage the fruit; the larvae “suck out essential nutrients,” which directly stunts the development of the coffee bean. This prevented beans from reaching their natural size and density, leading to lighter, “hollow” harvests that lacked the physical properties required for high-quality roasting.

The damage happens silently — inside the fruit — long before the coffee reaches the cup.

The SIT Breakthrough: “Birth Control” for Insects

To combat this without the use of toxic chemical pesticides, the IAEA, in cooperation with the FAO, has deployed the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT). This environmentally friendly “insect birth control” method works through a precise four-step cycle:

  • Mass Rearing: Millions of male flies are raised in specialized bio-factories.
  • Irradiation: The insects are exposed to controlled radiation (gamma or X-rays), which sterilizes them without affecting their health or competitive drive.
  • Aerial Release: These sterile males are released over coffee plantations.
  • Population Collapse: When they mate with wild females, no offspring are produced.

From “Wormy” Fruit to Award-Winning Quality

The results from the field provide a dramatic “before and after” for the coffee industry. Farmers who once struggled with harvests filled with “worms” (larvae) are now reporting a transformation in their crops.

Increased Weight & Density: Because the beans are no longer being drained of nutrients, they are growing to their full biological potential.

Superior “Cup Quality”: The SIT has saved the sensory profile of the bean.

Market Expansion: These high-quality beans are now qualifying for international specialty markets.

“Earlier, I used to find many worms in the fruit. But now, the change is visible. There are fewer worms, the coffee is heavier, and the cup quality is much better.”

A Global Success Story

From the Moscamed Program in Mexico and Guatemala to emerging projects in Africa and the Asia-Pacific, joint IAEA–FAO initiatives are ensuring that coffee remains sustainable and profitable.

 

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The Great Pivot: How Dubai and Asia Are Redefining Green Coffee Trading

Posted on by Qahwa World

A structural shift is moving the global coffee trade away from its historic Western centers toward a faster, proximity-driven system anchored in Dubai, Singapore, and Shanghai.

Source: Dubai – Qahwa World | April 2026

The global green coffee trade is undergoing one of the most significant transformations in its modern history. For decades, pricing power, logistics, and financial control were concentrated along a North Atlantic axis defined by New York, London, and Rotterdam. That structure is now being rebalanced.Across the Eastern hemisphere, a new trading corridor is taking shape. Dubai, Singapore, and Shanghai are emerging not only as logistics hubs but as integrated ecosystems that combine finance, infrastructure, and demand. This shift reflects deeper changes in consumption patterns, capital flows, and supply chain design.

By 2034, the global green coffee market is projected to reach between USD 54.5 billion and USD 61.4 billion. Much of that expansion is expected to come from Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, regions that are redefining how coffee is traded and where value is created.

A Market Rewritten by Demand

Growth in coffee consumption is no longer evenly distributed. Mature markets in Europe and North America are expanding slowly, while demand across Asia and the Middle East is accelerating.

Region Growth Market Profile
North America and Europe 0.5% to 1.2% Mature markets with premium focus
China 5% to 7% Rapid import growth and domestic roasting
India 6% to 8% Expanding café culture
Middle East 4% to 6% High-value consumption growth
Southeast Asia 5% to 7% Strong robusta base with specialty shift

This divergence is reshaping global trade routes. Coffee is increasingly flowing within an interconnected system that links producing countries directly with emerging consumption centers.

Value Moves Closer to Origin

A parallel shift is taking place within producing countries. Nations such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Ethiopia are expanding their processing and roasting capacity, allowing them to retain a larger share of the value chain.

Mid-stream hubs in the Eastern corridor are reinforcing this trend. By enabling processing and packaging closer to origin, they reduce reliance on traditional Western intermediaries and increase margins across the supply chain.

The result is a measurable redistribution of value, with producers capturing an estimated 15% to 20% more than under legacy trade structures.

Speed as a Competitive Advantage

Logistics has become a defining factor in the new trading environment. Shorter routes between producing regions and Eastern hubs are reducing transit times and increasing flexibility.

Route Transit Time
East Africa to Rotterdam 35 to 45+ days
East Africa to Dubai 7 to 14 days
Southeast Asia to Europe 30 to 40 days
Southeast Asia to Singapore or Shanghai 5 to 12 days

Reduced transit time improves cash flow efficiency, lowers inventory risk, and helps preserve coffee quality. These advantages are becoming central to competitive positioning.

A New Financial Architecture

The financial systems supporting coffee trade are evolving alongside physical infrastructure. Traditional reliance on futures markets and bank-led financing is being complemented by more flexible models.

Feature Legacy Model Emerging Model
Financial Instruments Futures-based pricing Direct contracts
Assets Heavy infrastructure Platform-based systems
Finance Bank-led FinTech and sovereign capital
Execution Multi-day cycles Near real-time

Dubai as a Trade Platform

Dubai has positioned itself as a central node in this transformation. Integrated infrastructure allows multiple stages of the coffee supply chain to operate within a single ecosystem, reducing friction and improving efficiency.

Facilities such as the DMCC Coffee Centre combine storage, processing, roasting, and logistics, creating a unified platform that connects producers directly with high-growth markets.

Industry events, including World of Coffee Dubai, are reinforcing this role by facilitating direct trade relationships and improving transparency between origin and buyers.

Outlook to 2035

The global coffee trade is gradually moving toward diversified pricing systems and decentralized trade flows. Fixed-price agreements, quality-based valuation, and traceability tools are becoming more prominent.

By 2035, the Eastern Growth Corridor is expected to capture a significant share of incremental trade value, reflecting a long-term structural shift rather than a temporary adjustment.

Conclusion

The future of green coffee trading is being reshaped by proximity, speed, and integration. The shift toward Dubai, Singapore, and Shanghai reflects deeper changes in how markets function and where value is created.

What was once a centralized system is becoming a distributed network. Those positioned closest to both origin and demand are increasingly defining the next phase of the global coffee economy.

Italian-Style Coffee Linked to Lower Risk of Common Liver Disease

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Dubai – Qahwa World

A recent Italian study published on 19 March 2026 in a scientific journal has found an association between traditional Italian-style coffee consumption and a reduced risk of metabolically dysfunctional-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).

The research was conducted by scientists at the National Institute of Gastroenterology in Bari, Italy, and focused specifically on coffee prepared using traditional Italian methods such as espresso and moka, which rely on pressure extraction.

MASLD is currently one of the most widespread chronic liver diseases globally, affecting more than 30% of adults. It is strongly associated with obesity, insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, and can progress to more severe liver conditions, including cirrhosis and liver cancer.

The study analyzed data from a long-term research project in Southern Italy. A total of 1,079 coffee-drinking participants were included in the final analysis. Liver conditions were assessed using ultrasound examinations, while coffee consumption was evaluated through a validated dietary questionnaire.

The findings showed that, after adjusting for various health and lifestyle factors, higher coffee consumption was associated with a lower risk of MASLD. The risk was 52.1% lower among those who consumed one cup per day, 53.2% lower for two cups, and 55.1% lower for three cups. The greatest reduction, 59.3%, was observed among individuals who consumed four to six cups daily.

In addition, each extra cup of coffee per day was associated with an approximate 15.7% reduction in risk.

Researchers attributed these findings to the high levels of bioactive compounds retained in Italian-style coffee, particularly in unfiltered preparations. These include chlorogenic acids, diterpenes, trigonelline, and melanoidins, which are believed to play a role in reducing inflammation, improving insulin sensitivity, and limiting fat accumulation in the liver.

Despite the findings, the researchers emphasized that the study is observational and does not establish a direct cause-and-effect relationship. Coffee consumption was also self-reported by participants.

The study noted that coffee is a central part of daily life in Italy, with most consumers preferring espresso or moka preparation methods.

According to European health guidance, up to 400 mg of caffeine per day is considered safe for healthy adults, though certain groups such as pregnant women or individuals sensitive to caffeine are advised to limit intake.

The study concludes that moderate consumption of Italian-style coffee may be associated with potential liver health benefits, while further research is needed to confirm these findings.

Moderate Coffee Consumption May Reduce Dementia Risk

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Dubai – Qahwa World

A comprehensive new study suggests that regular consumption of caffeinated coffee and tea may help protect against dementia and support cognitive health over the long term.

The research, published in JAMA on February 9, 2026, analyzed data from over 131,000 participants followed for up to 43 years. The study included women from the Nurses’ Health Study and men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, excluding individuals who had cancer, Parkinson’s disease, or dementia at the start. During the follow-up period, 11,033 cases of dementia were documented.

The study found that higher intake of caffeinated coffee was linked to a significantly lower risk of developing dementia. Participants in the highest consumption group—roughly two to three cups per day—experienced about an 18% lower risk compared with those in the lowest intake group. Similarly, moderate tea consumption—one to two cups per day—was associated with comparable benefits. Decaffeinated coffee, however, showed no significant impact on dementia risk or cognitive function.

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Researchers also observed improvements in cognitive performance among caffeinated coffee and tea drinkers. In the Nurses’ Health Study cohort, higher coffee intake correlated with slightly higher scores on the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status and global cognition assessments. Subjective cognitive decline was also less common among those with moderate caffeinated beverage intake.

Dr. Dylan Wint, a neurologist at Cleveland Clinic, who was not involved in the study, noted that these findings reinforce the potential role of caffeine in brain health. “Caffeine may help reduce the accumulation of amyloid-beta, a protein implicated in Alzheimer’s disease, and it may also have other neuroprotective effects,” he explained.

While the study highlights promising associations, researchers and experts caution that more work is needed to confirm causality. Dr. Wint emphasized that maintaining brain health also requires a holistic approach, including a balanced diet, regular exercise, and mental engagement.

The study adds to a growing body of evidence that moderate consumption of caffeinated coffee and tea could be a simple, enjoyable strategy to support long-term cognitive health.

Black coffee without sugar reduces chronic inflammation

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Spanish cardiologist Aurelio Rojas, known for his active role in promoting a healthy lifestyle, provided a detailed answer to the common question: “Is coffee good or bad for the heart and the body in general?”

The Spanish newspaper «Deia» reported that Rojas said the belief that “any type of coffee is beneficial” is a myth. Not every cup of coffee provides the same benefits. The real value of coffee lies in its content of antioxidants and polyphenols, compounds that play a key role in reducing chronic inflammation in the body.

Chronic inflammation is considered one of the most dangerous silent factors that increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes, obesity, liver diseases, as well as depression and neurodegenerative disorders. Here, black coffee without sugar stands out as an ideal choice.

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Rojas said: “It is best to drink coffee without any additives, as this allows you to fully benefit from its antioxidant properties.” He considers plain black coffee without sugar to be the most beneficial option, as its polyphenols work at full capacity to reduce inflammation markers, such as C-reactive protein (CRP), and help protect blood vessels.

However, the doctor is not strict about this, noting that “milk can sometimes be added.” Drinks such as latte or cappuccino are not forbidden, but they are less potent than black coffee in terms of antioxidant strength. Therefore, they can be enjoyed occasionally, while returning to black coffee for maximum benefit.

  • What else does Rojas say about coffee?

The data he relies on, supported by many scientific studies, suggest that moderate coffee consumption can:

  • Help control weight and burn fat
  • Not raise blood pressure, contrary to common belief
  • Reduce the risk of heart attacks, arrhythmias, and heart failure
  • Improve blood sugar control and reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes
  • Benefit the liver and reduce the risk of fatty liver disease and cirrhosis
  • Improve mood and reduce the likelihood of depression
  • Enhance energy, physical performance, and brain health, contributing to the prevention of diseases such as Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s

You can also read: 43 Years of Data: How Coffee Affects the Brain and Memory

As for the optimal amount, Rojas recommends about 3 cups per day. For beginners or those sensitive to caffeine, it is advised to start with 1–2 cups and gradually increase. It is preferable not to exceed 4 cups per day to avoid insomnia, nervousness, or rapid heartbeat.

  • A simple rule for coffee lovers

If you want to get the maximum benefit for heart health, blood vessels, and longevity, the advice is simple: black coffee without sugar or sweeteners, preferably natural rather than instant.

Coffee with milk can be consumed occasionally, but it is best not to make it a daily habit.

Brazil Breeds New Coffee to Face Climate Threat

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Campinas – Qahwa World

A recent report published by Reuters highlights growing efforts by Brazilian researchers to safeguard the future of arabica coffee as climate pressures intensify worldwide.

At the Campinas Agronomy Institute in southeastern Brazil, agronomist Oliveiro Guerreiro Filho is working among a diverse collection of coffee plants that differs sharply from the uniform rows seen across most commercial farms. The site brings together a wide range of species, including 15 rare and non-commercial varieties such as racemosa, liberica and stenophylla.

Researchers believe these lesser-known species may hold the genetic traits needed to strengthen arabica, which remains the most widely consumed coffee in the world.

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Scientists warn that arabica is increasingly vulnerable to rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns. Production in key countries, including Brazil, is expected to face mounting pressure in the coming decades.

According to a report by Rabobank, up to 20 percent of current arabica-growing areas could become unsuitable for cultivation by 2050.

In response, researchers are working to introduce genetic material from more resilient species into arabica plants. The goal is to develop new varieties that can better tolerate heat, drought and disease.

Liberica has attracted particular attention due to its ability to withstand hotter and drier conditions. Farmers in Southeast Asia, especially in Indonesia and Malaysia, have already begun testing the species on a small scale.

Jason Liew, founder of a coffee plantation in Malaysia’s Johor state, said liberica performs well in high temperatures and shows strong resistance to disease.

Brazilian researchers are focusing on transferring such traits into arabica, given its dominant position in global markets.

Guerreiro Filho said the institute has spent years working to transfer drought-tolerance genes from racemosa into arabica in an effort to produce more resilient plants.

The process is long and complex. It involves cross-breeding and exposing new hybrids to harsh conditions to identify the strongest varieties. This work can take between 20 and 30 years.

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Beyond climate resilience, researchers are also testing hybrids for improved resistance to pests and diseases while maintaining quality. Some crosses have shown stronger resistance to coffee rust, while others perform better against leaf miner larvae.

Rodolfo Oliveira of Brazil’s agricultural research agency emphasized that working with alternative coffee species is essential, noting that arabica has a very narrow genetic base, which increases its vulnerability to environmental threats.

As climate challenges continue to grow, efforts like those underway in Campinas may play a critical role in securing the future of coffee production.