Category: Studies

43 Years of Data: How Coffee Affects the Brain and Memory

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Regular consumption of coffee and tea may do more than boost alertness—it could also play a role in maintaining cognitive health over time. This is suggested by findings from a large-scale analysis of more than 130,000 participants followed over a period of 43 years.

Throughout the study, participants regularly reported their dietary habits, health status, and changes in memory and thinking abilities. Over the course of the observation period, more than 11,000 individuals developed dementia. The analysis found that those who consumed caffeinated coffee in moderate amounts—about two to three cups per day—had an approximately 18% lower risk of developing dementia compared to those who rarely or never drank it. They also reported fewer subjective memory complaints and performed better on certain cognitive tests.

Similar patterns were observed among tea drinkers, with one to two cups per day associated with favourable outcomes. In contrast, decaffeinated coffee did not show a clear association with improved cognitive measures, suggesting that caffeine may play an important role in the observed effects.

You may like: AI and Gas Chromatography Identify Coffee Origins

Researchers link these findings to compounds found in coffee and tea, including caffeine and polyphenols, which are believed to help reduce inflammation and protect brain cells from damage. Higher levels of caffeine intake did not appear to have harmful effects in this analysis, showing results comparable to moderate consumption.

Further analysis indicated that the association between caffeine intake and cognitive health was consistent regardless of genetic predisposition to dementia, highlighting the potential influence of lifestyle factors. At the same time, researchers emphasise that coffee and tea consumption represents only one part of a broader picture that includes diet, physical activity, sleep, and overall health.

The findings suggest that moderate, regular consumption of coffee or tea may contribute to maintaining cognitive function with age, though it should not be viewed as a standalone solution for preventing dementia.

Read also: Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

AI and Gas Chromatography Identify Coffee Origins

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Researchers have developed a new method that can help identify the country of origin of coffee by analyzing its aromatic compounds. The approach combines gas chromatography with artificial intelligence (AI) to create chemical fingerprints capable of distinguishing coffees from different producing regions.

Volatile compounds play a major role in shaping coffee’s aroma and flavor. These compounds are responsible for many of the subtle sensory notes found in brewed coffee and are often discussed in professional coffee competitions and sensory evaluations.

Scientists are now exploring how these same compounds can also serve as indicators of geographic origin.

According to a report highlighted by Chromatography Online, researchers from Italy and the United States conducted a study that will be published in the Journal of Chromatography. The team analyzed 32 roasted coffee samples provided by the Italian coffee company Illy.

You may read: Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

The samples represented several major coffee-producing countries: five from Brazil, six from Colombia, and seven each from Ethiopia, Guatemala, and India.

Instead of focusing on specific chemical markers, the researchers created what they describe as an “untargeted fingerprint.” This approach generates a comprehensive chemical profile of each coffee sample, allowing both known and unknown volatile compounds to contribute to the identification process.

To build these fingerprints, the scientists used two-dimensional gas chromatography, a technique that separates and measures numerous volatile compounds present in roasted coffee. The analysis produced detailed visual maps showing the distribution and intensity of these compounds.

These chemical maps were then analyzed using computer vision, a form of artificial intelligence designed to interpret visual patterns in complex datasets. By combining the results from samples originating from the same country, the researchers created composite templates representing typical volatile compound patterns for each origin.

Read also: Study Links Moderate Coffee Consumption to Brain Health

When additional coffee samples were compared with these templates, the system was able to identify their country of origin based on their chemical signatures.

The researchers note that the study has certain limitations, as factors such as coffee variety and post-harvest processing methods may also influence the volatile compounds present in roasted coffee. Further research may be needed to determine how these variables affect the reliability of the origin templates.

Despite these limitations, the findings could offer new tools for the coffee industry. In addition to helping verify origin, the technology may contribute to more objective assessments of coffee characteristics based on measurable chemical properties.

While traditional cupping remains the primary method for evaluating coffee quality, analytical techniques such as gas chromatography combined with artificial intelligence could provide complementary scientific insights into coffee composition and origin.

ICO February 2026 Report: Has the Inflationary Wave Receded?

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LONDON – Qahwa World

The latest monthly report issued by the International Coffee Organization for February 2026 has revealed a dramatic shift that could redefine the global coffee market dynamics for years to come. After a prolonged period of scarcity and record-high prices that strained both suppliers and consumers, the report announced a sharp decline in price indicators. This shift is driven by a “tsunami” of anticipated supplies from Brazil and Vietnam, officially placing the market on the verge of a historic surplus that ends a three-year cycle of consecutive deficits.

  • Price Earthquake

In February, the Organization’s Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 267.57 US cents/lb, representing a sharp 9.9% decrease compared to January. This decline is not merely a transient fluctuation but reflects massive selling pressure in global exchanges; the index opened the month at a peak of 289.47 cents and slid to 248.86 cents by month-end, the lowest level recorded since August 2025.

You may read: Global Coffee Market Roadmap—January 2026

None of the major categories were immune to this downward trend, with the Organization’s statistical analysis showing the following results:

  • Colombian Milds: Declined by 11.0% to settle at 330.89 cents.
  • Other Milds: Retracted by 11.7% to reach 321.35 cents.
  • Brazilian Naturals: Shrank by 10.2% to reach 308.62 cents.

Robustas: Proved most resilient, declining by only 6.6%. Experts attribute this to global roasters increasing the proportion of Robusta in their commercial blends as a strategic solution to reduce overall costs, creating sustainable demand that stabilized its price levels.

  • Brazilian and Vietnamese Winds

Organization analysts believe the fundamental reason behind this “price correction” lies in the optimistic forecasts from Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB), which raised expectations for the 2026/27 crop to 66.2 million bags, a massive 17.1% annual increase.

These forecasts were supported by a tangible improvement in weather conditions and regular, heavy rainfall in key growing regions such as Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, as well as improved outlooks in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. These factors prompted major international financial institutions to predict a global surplus of up to 8.64 million bags, leading large investment funds to liquidate long positions and pivot toward selling. This explains the 20.7% shrinkage in the arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets.

  • Global Trade Map

Regarding exports, January 2026 saw the shipment of 10.85 million bags of green beans, a 12.7% increase over January 2025. However, behind this headline figure lie geographical disparities reflecting specific regional logistical and production challenges:

Asia & Oceania: The region achieved a staggering 51.8% growth, with Vietnam alone exporting 3.99 million bags in January, capitalizing on accelerated shipping ahead of the Lunar New Year (Tet) holiday.

Africa: Continued its recovery with 14.2% growth. Ethiopia stood out as a strategic player with a 51.5% increase in shipments, while Uganda grew by 11.2%, reflecting a significant improvement in the continent’s internal supply chains.

South America: Recorded a surprising 21.3% decline. The biggest shock was in Colombia, where production plummeted by 34.1% due to unfavorable localized weather fluctuations, negatively impacting the flow of premium Colombian Milds to global markets.

Mexico & Central America: Registered a slight 4.2% decrease, with Honduras suffering a sharp 28.7% drop in exports due to seasonal labor shortages and logistical hurdles.

Read Also: ICO Releases Global Coffee Market Report – December 2025

  • Stocks and Processed Coffee

For the first time in months, the International Coffee Organization report indicates a slight improvement in certified stocks. New York (ICE) stocks rose by 11.4% to 0.52 million bags, while London stocks increased by 3.1% to 0.76 million bags. This rise provides a relative “safety cushion” against sudden climatic or political shocks.

A notable phenomenon in the report was the export of “Roasted Coffee,” which jumped by 25.2%. This indicates a strategic shift in origin countries toward local processing to add value to their products rather than relying solely on raw bean exports. Meanwhile, soluble coffee exports grew at a steady pace of 1.9%.

  • The Retail Paradox

The report highlighted a crucial point affecting the real economy: despite the collapse of raw coffee prices in global exchanges, retail prices in the United States jumped by 18.3% year-on-year in January 2026. This persistent inflation, totaling 47% cumulatively over five years, is mainly due to rising logistics, energy, and labor costs in consuming countries. Additionally, accumulating consumer debt is beginning to weigh on purchasing power, which may threaten the expected 1.7% growth in global consumption.

  • Future Outlook

We are entering a phase of total “reset” in coffee market balances. The market is currently moving to narrow the global deficit to just 0.4 million bags this season, paving the way for the anticipated historic surplus next year. For investors, roasters, and consumers, the February 2026 report serves as the “final whistle” for the era of frantic speculation and chronic shortages, signaling the start of a price stability phase led by Brazilian production abundance and Vietnamese logistical efficiency.

Brazil’s Specialty Coffee Sector Gains Global Momentum

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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published a detailed report titled “Brewing Opportunity – Brazil’s Specialty Coffee Sector Shows Strong Potential,” examining the rapid development of Brazil’s specialty coffee industry and the opportunities and challenges shaping its future.

Brazil remains the largest coffee producer and exporter in the world, while also ranking as the second-largest coffee-consuming country. Historically, the nation exported its highest-quality beans while domestic consumption focused largely on lower-grade coffee. In recent years, however, this pattern has begun to shift. Brazilian consumers are increasingly developing a taste for specialty coffee, driving growth in both production and local demand.

According to the report, the expansion of the specialty segment is supported by several structural advantages. Brazil benefits from favorable climatic conditions that allow the cultivation of diverse coffee varieties across multiple regions. In addition, the country has developed a strong network of research institutions, cooperatives, and producer organizations that focus on improving quality, innovation, and technical expertise within the coffee sector.

At the same time, the domestic market for coffee continues to expand, with consumers showing greater interest in differentiated products and higher-quality beans.

You may read: Russia’s Imports of Brazilian Coffee Fall to Six-Month Low

Despite this progress, the report notes that Brazil’s specialty coffee sector still faces several structural challenges. Many producers struggle with limited access to rural credit, making it difficult to finance investments in equipment and infrastructure. Post-harvest processing facilities—such as washing stations, pulpers, sorting machines, and drying systems—also remain insufficient in some areas, limiting the ability of farmers to produce and market high-quality coffee.

Producers have also reported uneven access to technical assistance and a limited number of certified warehouses and exporters, which can reduce profitability and hinder broader participation in the specialty coffee market, particularly among small-scale farmers.

Although specialty coffee generally costs about 50 percent more than conventional coffee, the segment offers advantages beyond price. Buyers often establish longer-term relationships with producers, which can provide farmers with greater stability and security for future harvests.

  • Major Coffee-Producing Regions

Specialty coffee production in Brazil is concentrated mainly in high-altitude regions, where elevation and moderate temperatures contribute to denser beans and more complex flavor profiles.

You may read: Brazil Crop Expectations Pressure Global Coffee Prices

The state of Minas Gerais stands as Brazil’s leading producer of arabica and specialty coffees. Regions such as Sul de Minas, Cerrado Mineiro, Matas de Minas, and Mantiqueira de Minas form a well-organized production chain that includes farmers, cooperatives, exporters, warehouses, and research institutions. Minas Gerais alone produces around 24 million bags of coffee annually, representing nearly half of Brazil’s total coffee output.

Each sub-region offers distinctive characteristics. Cerrado Mineiro became the first coffee region in Brazil to receive Designation of Origin status, while Sul de Minas is known for its concentration of small farms and its large cooperative structure. Mantiqueira de Minas has gained international recognition for its high-altitude coffees, where significant temperature variation between day and night allows cherries to ripen slowly, resulting in sweeter and more aromatic beans.

In Espírito Santo, Brazil’s second-largest coffee-producing state, production is dominated by robusta—locally known as conilon—though high-altitude areas also produce quality arabica coffee. Regions such as Caparaó and Montanhas do Espírito Santo are known for small family farms and coffees with aromatic complexity and balanced acidity.

The state of São Paulo also contributes to the specialty segment through regions such as Alta Mogiana and Média Mogiana, where coffees typically display balanced acidity, strong aroma, and a creamy body.

You may read:Coffee Prices Rise as Brazilian Real Strength Sparks Short Covering

Other regions across Brazil contribute unique characteristics as well. Rondônia, located in the Amazon region, specializes in conilon production, while Paraná, historically a major coffee producer, continues to maintain output through small farms supported by cooperatives and research institutions. Meanwhile, Bahia, one of the country’s newer coffee regions, has gained attention for its use of advanced technology and mechanized farming systems, which support high productivity levels.

  • Quality Standards and Classification

Brazil follows internationally recognized quality standards for specialty coffee. The evaluation system used by the Specialty Coffee Association scores arabica coffees on a 100-point scale, with coffees scoring 80 points or higher classified as specialty grade.

Coffees are evaluated according to sensory characteristics such as aroma, flavor, acidity, body, sweetness, balance, uniformity, and aftertaste, while also being assessed for physical defects.

Brazil also uses national classification systems aligned with these international standards. The country’s official classification process evaluates cup quality using descriptors such as strictly soft, soft, and hard, among others.

In May 2025, the Brazil Specialty Coffee Association adopted a new evaluation protocol known as Coffee Value Assessment, designed to create a more standardized approach to assessing quality and to improve communication between producers and international buyers.

You may read:Brazil Rain and Vietnam Surplus Sink Coffee Futures

Brazilian producers may also use additional certification programs—such as organic or fair-trade certifications—to meet international market requirements, although these certifications do not automatically classify a coffee as specialty.

The quality of Brazilian robusta and conilon coffee has also improved in recent years, contributing to stronger demand and higher prices. Brazil is currently the second-largest producer of robusta coffee globally, behind Vietnam.

  • Challenges Affecting Growth

The report highlights genetics as another key factor in specialty coffee production. However, inconsistencies between international and national databases for coffee cultivars sometimes create challenges. Some varieties recognized internationally for exceptional quality are not officially registered for cultivation in Brazil, while many important Brazilian cultivars are absent from international quality catalogues.

These discrepancies can complicate certification and recognition processes for producers and may increase production costs or reduce profitability.

Specialty coffee production also requires significant investments in cultivation techniques and post-harvest infrastructure. Because these investments can be costly, the specialty coffee sector in Brazil remains concentrated among a relatively limited number of producers.

  • Growing Interest Among Brazilian Consumers

Although Brazil has long been a global coffee powerhouse, domestic appreciation for specialty coffee is relatively recent. Since the early 2000s, coffee culture has evolved significantly as consumers began exploring higher-quality beans, alternative brewing methods, and greater transparency regarding coffee origins.

You may read:India’s Quiet Coffee Superpower

Recent consumer surveys show that some Brazilians have reduced overall coffee consumption in response to rising prices. Nevertheless, demand for specialty coffee continues to grow. The report indicates that consumption of specialty coffee in Brazil has been increasing by about 15 percent per year, significantly faster than the growth of traditional coffee consumption.

Specialty coffee consumption in the country is estimated at around 70,000 tons annually, representing approximately five to ten percent of total coffee consumption.

Consumers interested in specialty coffee tend to seek differentiated beans, visit cafés that emphasize brewing quality, and show greater interest in sustainability practices and traceability.

  • Trade Trends and Export Markets

Brazilian export data does not track specialty coffee as a separate category. Instead, exporters often group it under “differentiated coffees,” which include beans certified for quality, sustainability, or other distinctive characteristics.

According to export data, Brazil shipped 8.1 million bags of differentiated coffees in 2025, representing about 20 percent of the country’s total coffee exports. Although export volumes declined compared with the previous year, revenues increased significantly to approximately 3.5 billion dollars, partly due to favorable exchange rates.

The United States remained the largest destination for Brazilian differentiated coffees, importing about 1.3 million bags, followed by Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy. European markets often function as distribution hubs that supply specialty coffee to other regions.

  • Global Promotion and Future Outlook

Brazil is actively promoting its specialty coffee sector internationally through initiatives designed to strengthen its presence in global markets. One such program focuses on marketing Brazilian specialty coffees through trade fairs, branding campaigns, and partnerships with international buyers.

Priority markets include the United States, Japan, China, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, France, and Australia, while processed coffee products such as roasted and ground coffee are being promoted in markets including Canada, Chile, China, and the United States.

The initiative is scheduled to run until 2027 and aims to expand Brazil’s leadership in the global specialty coffee sector.

The report concludes that rising international demand for traceable, sustainable, and high-quality coffee—combined with ongoing improvements in production and promotion—positions Brazil’s specialty coffee industry for continued growth in the years ahead.

Global Study Maps the “Carbon Footprint” of Latin American Coffee

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A comprehensive international study released in March 2026 has revealed a sharp disparity in the carbon footprint of coffee production across five major Latin American nations. This landmark report establishes the first precise scientific baseline—using primary data collected directly from farms—to address climate change challenges within the global coffee sector.

The study, conducted by Conservation International in collaboration with the Sustainable Coffee Challenge and Meo Carbon Solutions, analyzed supply chains in Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, Mexico, and Peru. The findings provide a “wake-up call” for the industry, highlighting how specific farming practices, particularly fertilization and waste management, dictate environmental impact.

  • The Emission Gap: Colombia Leads while Mexico Sets a Benchmark

Detailed data shows that coffee production in Colombia generates the highest greenhouse gas emission intensity, averaging 5.59 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq) per kilogram of green coffee. Honduras followed with 4.87 kg. In Brazil, the results varied by variety, with Arabica recording 3.22 kg compared to 2.51 kg for Robusta.

Conversely, Mexico emerged as the country with the lowest emissions in the study group, averaging just 1.46 kg. Experts attribute this lower footprint to specific traditional farming practices, including greater reliance on natural shade and organic soil health.

  • Fertilizers: The Primary Climate Culprit

According to the extensive technical report, the most significant “hotspot” for emissions in Latin American coffee is fertilizer and nutrient application. In Colombia and Brazil, fertilization accounts for approximately 60% of the total carbon footprint. This is primarily due to the heavy use of nitrogen-based inputs, which release potent greenhouse gases when interacting with the soil.

In other regions, the drivers differ. In Peru, “crop residues” and unmanaged organic decomposition were identified as the primary sources of emissions. Meanwhile, in Honduras, the traditional wet processing of coffee cherries—specifically the management of wastewater at the farm level—contributes significantly to the national baseline.

  • A “Pre-Competitive” Global Alliance

The study is the result of an unprecedented “pre-competitive” alliance involving major global coffee brands, roasters, and suppliers. Giants such as Nestlé, Starbucks, and JDE Peet’s contributed by sharing primary data and technical oversight to harmonize carbon accounting standards across the industry.

This collaboration aims to empower stakeholders to direct investments toward “regenerative agriculture.” These practices focus on reducing chemical dependency, improving on-farm waste management, and enhancing the soil’s ability to sequester carbon rather than release it.

  • A Roadmap for Investors and Farmers

The report concludes with actionable recommendations, stressing that reducing the carbon footprint is no longer just an environmental goal but a commercial necessity. As international environmental regulations tighten, understanding these baselines is essential for maintaining global market access.

The findings confirm that transitioning to integrated nutrient management, improving water efficiency, and recycling coffee by-products into natural fertilizers are the most effective ways to bridge the carbon gap revealed in countries like Colombia and Honduras.

Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

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Japanese researchers have found that chlorogenic acid — a natural compound found in coffee — can reduce gum inflammation and decrease bacteria associated with periodontitis.

The results were published in Dentistry Journal, a leading international dental journal emphasizing high-quality, innovative research with impact on clinical practice, scientific developments, and policy worldwide.

Periodontitis develops due to chronic gum inflammation and destruction of the tissues supporting teeth, which in severe cases can lead to tooth loss.

The primary driver is dental plaque — a bacterial biofilm that changes composition over time and accumulates pathogenic microorganisms.

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These bacteria are difficult to remove with standard hygiene, and dense biofilms are challenging even for professional cleaning.

The researchers investigated whether chlorogenic acid could improve the control of inflammation and pathogenic bacteria.

Laboratory experiments on gum tissue samples and extracted teeth from periodontitis patients assessed the effect on inflammatory markers and microbial growth.

Results showed that chlorogenic acid suppresses pro-inflammatory cytokines, including interleukin‑1β and interleukin‑8, and reduces the proliferation of bacteria such as Streptococcus mutans, Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, and Fusobacterium nucleatum.

According to the authors, the compound exhibits strong anti-inflammatory and antibacterial properties and may serve as a promising adjunct for the prevention and treatment of periodontitis.

This study represents an example of translational research, where laboratory findings could be applied in future clinical practice. However, as the experiments were conducted in vitro, further trials are needed to confirm clinical effectiveness.

 

War Redraws Global Shipping Map and Pressures Coffee Supply Chains

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Dubai – Qahwa World

A fresh escalation in the Middle East at the end of February has sent new shockwaves through global logistics, adding to an already fragile maritime environment shaped by two years of Red Sea disruption and intensifying geopolitical risk.

  • Strait of Hormuz Slowdown Raises Cost Fears

As of 28 February, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints — has slowed dramatically amid heightened security risks. Several carriers, including CMA CGM, have introduced Emergency Conflict Surcharges to offset rising insurance premiums and security-related operating costs.

While coffee shipments do not transit the Strait directly, the knock-on effects are significant. Gulf producers account for roughly 20% of global crude oil supply, and oil prices hovering around $70 per barrel are widely expected to face upward pressure. With bunker fuel representing about 40% of vessel operating costs, further increases in Bunker Adjustment Factors appear likely.

Higher fuel bills, combined with longer routings already in place, are expected to weigh on transit times, vessel availability and global freight rates. For coffee traders, that translates into longer sailing schedules, potential equipment imbalances, reduced schedule reliability and renewed upward pressure on ocean freight costs.

  • The situation remains fluid.

Red Sea: A Crisis Entering Its Third Year

More than two years after the first Houthi missile struck a commercial vessel in the Red Sea, the industry continues to absorb the consequences of one of the most disruptive trade shocks in decades.

The crisis began in November 2023, when Houthi forces seized the Galaxy Leader and launched a sustained campaign targeting merchant vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. At its peak, more than 100 ships were targeted. Traffic volumes through the Red Sea fell by roughly 60%, forcing carriers to divert around the Cape of Good Hope.

Those diversions added between 10 and 14 sailing days, absorbed global capacity and destabilized schedules across major East–West trade lanes.

A Gaza ceasefire toward the end of 2025 briefly encouraged hopes of normalization. Some carriers began adjusting fleet plans in anticipation of a return to Suez routings. However, renewed escalation in the Middle East and fresh Houthi threats have reversed those plans. All major carriers are currently continuing voyages around the Cape of Good Hope.

  • Carrier Responses

Maersk has confirmed that its Middle East–India–U.S. East Coast (MECL) service, originally intended to transit the Red Sea, will be cancelled and rerouted around Africa.

CMA CGM, which had initially led efforts to resume Suez transits, has since withdrawn from most crossings and reverted to previous sailing patterns.

Across the Asia–Europe trade, most services remain diverted, with carriers unwilling to recommit until sustained security assurances emerge.

Roughly 12% of global seaborne trade depends on the Suez Canal — an exposure that underscores the structural vulnerability of the system. Industry leaders now emphasize improved data, faster decision-making and scenario planning as essential tools in a landscape defined by prolonged uncertainty.

  • Hapag-Lloyd Moves to Acquire Zim in $4.2 Billion Deal

Amid the geopolitical turbulence, consolidation continues.

Hapag-Lloyd has agreed to acquire Israeli carrier Zim in a $4.2 billion cash deal, offering $35 per share — a 58% premium to Zim’s share price as of 20 February. The transaction would elevate the Frankfurt-listed group to the world’s fifth-largest container shipping line.

Chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen said the combined network would significantly strengthen services across the Transpacific, Intra-Asia, Atlantic, Latin America and East Mediterranean trades.

To address Israeli government concerns — it holds a golden share in Zim and considers it a strategic asset — Hapag-Lloyd will carve out a separate Israel-focused operator owned by FIMI, launching with 16 vessels.

The transaction is expected to close in late 2026, subject to shareholder, government and regulatory approval.

  • U.S. Maritime Plan Revives Port Fee Debate

In Washington, the Trump administration has unveiled a long-awaited Maritime Action Plan (MAP), reviving a controversial proposal to levy fees on foreign-built vessels calling at U.S. ports.

The 36-page plan outlines a four-pillar strategy aimed at rebuilding U.S. shipbuilding capacity, modernizing maritime training, protecting industrial infrastructure and strengthening national security.

At its core is a proposed per-kilogram fee on imported cargo discharged by foreign-built ships. Modeled between $0.01 and $0.25 per kilogram, the levy could generate approximately $66 billion over a decade at the low end — and up to $1.5 trillion at the high end — significantly exceeding the short-lived port fees introduced in 2025.

President Donald Trump framed the initiative as central to industrial revival, calling for hundreds of billions of dollars in new investment in American shipyards.

Carriers and trade partners, however, have warned that such measures would increase landed costs, distort routing economics and potentially trigger retaliation.

The plan also references bridge strategies, including limited foreign construction tied to U.S. investment commitments, and financing mechanisms such as Title XI and Capital Construction Funds. No firm execution timeline has been announced.

  • Freight Rates: Market Turns Softer in Early 2026

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reading of 1,251.46 on 13 February 2026 reflects a market transitioning toward lower and more volatile rates.

Spot rates for 40-foot high cube containers from Asia to the U.S. West Coast are projected to decline by 30–35% compared with 2025 levels. Although first-quarter seasonality — including pre-Lunar New Year rate increases — has returned, persistent capacity growth and uncertainty surrounding Red Sea developments are expected to keep pressure on spot markets.

  • Schedule Reliability Slips Again

Global schedule reliability fell to 62.8% in December 2025, marking the second-lowest reading since May of that year.

European port congestion remains the primary driver, compounded by rerouting challenges linked to the Red Sea crisis.

Cancelled sailings surged 122% in February 2026 compared with January, tightening effective capacity around the Lunar New Year period.

Although overall reliability has improved relative to 2024, performance remains uneven. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd ranked among the most reliable carriers in late 2025, while others reported on-time rates between 50% and 60%.

  • Trade Lane Snapshot

APAC to Global: Capacity stable; spot rates declining.

India to Global: Tight capacity; slight upward rate trend.

Brazil to Global: Manageable capacity; continued port congestion and gate window constraints; occasional rollovers; rates stable.

Central America to Global: Tight capacity; container shortages (20’ and 40’) reported in Honduras and Nicaragua.

East Africa to Global: Capacity available; severe congestion at Mombasa.

Port Delays Widen

Operational bottlenecks persist across major gateways:

Antwerp (Belgium): 3-day delay

New York (USA): 4-day delay

London Gateway (UK): 5-day delay

Buenaventura (Colombia): 4-day delay

Santos (Brazil): 5-day delay

India (major ports): 4-day delay

Vietnam: 4-day delay

Mombasa (Kenya): 10-day delay

Australia (major ports): 3-day delay

With vessels queuing at multiple hubs and geopolitical risk layered on top of structural capacity shifts, 2026 is shaping up as another year in which resilience — rather than efficiency — defines the global shipping narrative.

Italy Coffee Market Outlook 2026–2031

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Tradition Anchors Growth as Pods, Specialty and RTD Gain Ground

DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

Italy’s coffee sector is projected to expand steadily through 2031, supported by strong domestic consumption, product innovation and premiumisation trends, even as competition from alternative beverages intensifies.

According to a recent industry analysis published by Research and Markets, the Italian coffee market is estimated at USD 5.92 billion in 2026, up from USD 5.61 billion in 2025. The market is forecast to reach USD 7.71 billion by 2031, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.44% between 2026 and 2031.

A Market Rooted in Culture

Coffee consumption remains deeply embedded in Italy’s daily life and social fabric. Espresso culture, regional roasting traditions and the central role of cafés continue to sustain stable demand across retail and foodservice channels.

Data from the European Coffee Federation shows European coffee sales rising from EUR 2.45 billion in 2022 to EUR 2.57 billion in 2023, reflecting consistent consumption patterns in mature markets such as Italy. The country continues to shape broader European coffee dynamics through its heritage brands and café culture.

Ground coffee remains the backbone of the market, reflecting traditional brewing habits in both households and professional settings.

Segment Performance: Leaders and Fastest Growers

Ground Coffee: Market Leader

Ground coffee accounted for 34.10% of market share in 2025, maintaining its leadership due to Italy’s strong preference for authentic espresso preparation. Its versatility across brewing methods and wide range of blends and roast profiles reinforce its dominance.

Pods and Capsules: Fastest Growth

Coffee pods and capsules represent the fastest-growing segment, with a projected CAGR of 6.31% through 2031. Growth is driven by convenience, single-serve machine adoption and demand for consistent quality in homes and offices. Innovation in cross-compatible systems and flavor diversification continues to support expansion.

Plain Coffee: Cultural Mainstay

Plain coffee holds a commanding 78.20% market share in 2025, underscoring consumer preference for traditional, unflavored coffee that highlights bean quality and roasting craftsmanship.

Flavored Coffee: Emerging Momentum

Flavored coffee is projected to grow at a 7.02% CAGR through 2031, reflecting changing tastes among younger consumers and urban markets seeking diversified flavor experiences.

Innovation and Premiumisation

Italian consumers remain loyal to tradition but increasingly embrace innovation that blends heritage with modern preferences. Product development is expanding into:

  • Specialty and single-origin offerings

  • Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee

  • Sustainable and ethically sourced products

  • Smart brewing systems

  • E-commerce and digital sales channels

International brands are also adapting to the Italian market. In February 2023, Starbucks Corporation introduced its Oleato olive oil coffee range in Italy, combining espresso with olive oil in beverages designed to align with local culinary identity while offering a differentiated experience.

Sustainability and ethical sourcing are increasingly important purchase drivers, while climate volatility remains a structural risk factor affecting global green coffee supply.

Competitive Pressures from Alternative Beverages

The broader beverage landscape in Italy is evolving. Functional teas, energy drinks, matcha, kombucha and plant-based beverages are gaining visibility, particularly among younger consumers. Specialty tea shops and bubble tea outlets are expanding in major cities, competing with traditional coffee bars as social spaces.

In response, coffee companies are diversifying portfolios to include tea, functional drinks and wellness-oriented beverages, leveraging established distribution networks and brand recognition.

Corporate Spotlight: Illycaffè Expands U.S. Production

Premium Italian roaster Illycaffè plans to begin production in the United States in 2026 as part of its international growth strategy.

Chief Executive Officer Cristina Scocchia stated that between 15% and 20% of the company’s U.S. sales volume will be produced locally starting early next year. The move aims to improve supply chain flexibility and enhance proximity to consumers.

Illycaffè expects overall turnover to rise approximately 10% year-on-year to around €690 million, with reported growth of 11% in Italy and 19% in the United States at constant exchange rates. However, the company faces continued cost pressure from elevated green coffee prices, which rose significantly in 2025 due to weather-related supply disruptions and global market volatility.

Founded in 1933 in Trieste, Illycaffè operates in more than 140 countries and remains a key player in the premium espresso segment.

Market Structure and Key Players

The Italian coffee market is segmented by:

  • Product Type: Whole bean, ground coffee, instant coffee and others

  • Flavor: Plain and flavored

  • Category: Conventional and specialty

  • Bean Type: Arabica, Robusta and others

  • Distribution Channel: On-trade and off-trade

Major companies operating in the market include:

  • Luigi Lavazza S.p.A.

  • Nestlé S.A.

  • Kimbo S.p.A.

  • Starbucks Corporation

  • Gruppo Illy S.p.A.

  • Tchibo GmbH

  • JDE Peet’s N.V.

  • Segafredo Zanetti S.p.A.

  • Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group

Outlook

Italy’s coffee market remains mature but dynamic. Traditional espresso culture continues to anchor demand, while growth is increasingly concentrated in pods, capsules, specialty formats and ready-to-drink beverages.

As sustainability priorities, technological integration and premium positioning reshape the competitive landscape, Italy is expected to maintain its dual role as both a heritage-driven coffee market and a hub for innovation within Europe’s broader coffee industry.

Global Coffee Market Roadmap—January 2026

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DUBAI – QAHWA

January 2026 was not merely the start of a new calendar year for the International Coffee Organization (ICO); it served as a critical testing ground for the resilience of global supply chains against dual shocks: climatic in the primary production origin (Brazil) and logistical in vital waterways. The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 296.89 US cents/lb, a 2.6% decrease from December 2025. While this figure may appear as a slight retreat, a deep dive into daily market movements reveals a state of “silent boiling” that culminated in a sharp price collapse in the final three days of the month, ending a long period of relative stability since late 2025.

  • I. Price Psychology and the “Minas Gerais” Effect

Prices entered January in a state of “cautious balance” (range-bound), lacking clear directional catalysts. Prices fluctuated within a narrow band, interpreted by analysts as being high enough to keep farmers financially satisfied but not low enough to trigger aggressive stock liquidations. However, this calm was shattered by two opposing factors:

Currency Impact and Hedging (Early Month): In the first week, around January 6th, the indicator rose by 3.2%. This increase was driven not by supply shortages, but by the strength of the Brazilian Real. The positive correlation between the Real’s strength and global coffee prices is a classic driver; a stronger local currency reduces export incentives for Brazilian farmers who then prefer selling in the domestic market (CEPEA index), which offered attractive premiums over international prices, creating temporary upward pressure.

The Saving Rain Shock (End of Month): A dramatic shift occurred between January 27th and 30th, with the market losing over 21 cents in a flash. Eyes were glued to weather maps over Minas Gerais, the heart of Brazil’s coffee production. Reports of heavy, consistent rainfall dissipated the “risk premium” previously added by traders fearing drought. This precipitation not only improved the current crop’s condition but provided strong positive signals for the 2026/2027 season, prompting investment funds and speculators to liquidate long positions, causing the indicator to drop to 283.02 cents.

  • 2. Structural Shifts in Demand (Robusta as the New Leader)

The report reveals a significant economic phenomenon: diverging performance among the four main coffee groups. While Arabica varieties suffered sharp declines—up to 4.5% in the “Other Milds” category—Robusta was the only group to achieve positive growth (1.0%), stabilizing at 192.52 cents. This divergence is no coincidence; it is the result of a “structural” shift in the global coffee industry. Amid rising global living costs, major international roasters have begun adjusting “blends” to increase the proportion of Robusta to lower final costs for consumers. This sustained demand for Robusta narrowed the price gap (arbitrage) between the New York and London exchanges by 8.4%, signaling that Robusta is emerging as the actual driver of corporate profit stability.

  • 3. Export Geography: Redrawing the Global Map

Global green coffee exports in December 2025 reached a strong 10.15 million bags, up 9.2%. However, this hides stark regional disparities:

The Central America and Mexico Surge (81.3%): This figure must be read carefully; it reflects “recovery from paralysis” rather than a sudden productivity spike. In December 2024, tropical storms (notably Sara) delayed harvesting, making exports almost non-existent then. In December 2025, stabilized climate allowed coffee to flow normally to ports, resulting in a massive percentage increase compared to the previous year’s “trough.”

Asia and Oceania Leadership (Vietnam & Indonesia): The region grew by 38.4%, led by Vietnam (+30%). Vietnam compensated for early-season harvest delays through improved processing efficiency and the “base effect.” Indonesia and India also saw a combined 61.1% jump, reinforcing Asia’s position as a primary global supplier while South America falters.

South American Contraction (The Persistent Dilemma): For the 14th consecutive month, South America recorded a decline (-15.0%). Brazil fell by 18.5%, and notably, Colombia dropped by 18.9%. The report hypothesizes that Colombia may have reached its “maximum production capacity” due to environmental factors and labor structure changes.

  • 4. Uganda: A Unique African Success Story

Uganda stands out as the “hero” of the African continent, with exports jumping 52.5% in one month. This is the fruit of a national strategy to renew trees and expand Robusta acreage. Uganda aims to export 20 million bags by 2030, and current figures show it is on track, filling the void left by other struggling producers with competitive quality.

  • 5. Logistics: Red Sea Security as a Cooling Factor

A pivotal analytical point is the breakthrough in the Red Sea. Following long-term disruptions, major shipping lines resumed using the Suez Canal by January 12, 2026, after security stabilized. This has a direct price impact:

Reducing “Coffee on Water”: Shortening transit times freed up millions of bags previously held at sea for extra weeks, allowing them to reach European and American ports faster.

Increased Destination Stocks: The availability of coffee in consuming ports reduces “urgent” buying pressure, removing a key price support pillar from last year.

  • 6. Technical Analysis of Stocks and the “Backwardation” Dilemma

Despite export flows, the market faces a technical contradiction called “Backwardation,” where spot prices remain higher than futures. This indicates short-term “hunger” despite long-term optimism. Consequently, certified stocks remain at critical levels (50% of the 5-year average), acting as a “safety valve” that prevents total price collapse.

  • Conclusion and Future Outlook

The January 2026 report clarifies that the global coffee market is moving from a “supply crisis” to a “logistical and climatic rebalancing.” The 2.6% price drop is likely the start of a broader correction in Q1, provided Brazilian rains continue and Suez Canal traffic remains steady.

Study Links Moderate Coffee Consumption to Brain Health

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DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

The saying about fruit and doctors might need an update: your daily cup of coffee could also play a role in keeping your mind active as you age.

Public debate around popular indulgences like coffee, tea, alcohol, and chocolate tends to swing back and forth. However, researchers based in Cambridge, Massachusetts have recently reported findings that place caffeinated drinks in a more positive light, particularly when it comes to long-term cognitive health.

A large research review drawing on decades of data and involving more than 130,000 adults observed an association between regular consumption of coffee or caffeinated tea and a lower likelihood of developing dementia. The analysis also suggested slower cognitive decline and better maintenance of mental performance among habitual caffeine consumers.

The researchers propose that compounds found in caffeinated coffee and tea may have neuroprotective properties, potentially helping to limit inflammation and cellular damage in the brain. These mechanisms are discussed as possible explanations for the observed relationship with cognitive outcomes.

The findings are especially relevant for older adults. Dementia diagnoses have risen sharply in recent years, and projections from health professionals anticipate a substantial increase in new cases in the coming decades. According to the study’s senior author, the widespread and routine nature of coffee consumption made it an appealing dietary factor to examine in the search for practical approaches to supporting brain health.

Earlier studies on caffeine and cognition often struggled to assess long-term effects or to separate outcomes by beverage type. By combining data from long-running cohort studies that tracked participants for more than four decades, the researchers were able to compare the cognitive trajectories of people who consumed caffeinated coffee, caffeinated tea, decaffeinated coffee, or little caffeine at all.

Within the study population, about 8% of participants developed dementia over time. Those who reported the highest intake of caffeinated coffee showed a notably lower risk compared with individuals who consumed minimal caffeine. Similar patterns were observed among tea drinkers, while decaffeinated coffee did not show the same association, leading the authors to focus on caffeine as a potential key factor.

As for quantity, the analysis pointed to moderate intake rather than excess. Approximately two to three cups of coffee per day, or one to two cups of tea, were associated with the most favorable cognitive outcomes.

The researchers also reported that the observed associations were consistent regardless of genetic predisposition to dementia, suggesting that caffeine’s potential benefits may apply across different levels of inherited risk.

That said, coffee is only one small element in a much broader picture. Dementia risk is strongly influenced by genetics and by health conditions such as high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, physical inactivity, and mental health challenges. The authors emphasized that the effect linked to caffeine was modest and should be viewed as one possible component of a comprehensive approach to healthy aging.

In short, while caffeine is not a cure or a guarantee, moderate coffee or tea consumption may be one lifestyle factor associated with maintaining cognitive health later in life.

Does Coffee Aid Digestion?

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DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

For many, drinking coffee after a heavy meal is not just a social ritual, but a functional tool for the body. According to a report by The Guardian, featuring Dr. Emily Leeming, a nutritionist at King’s College London and author of Genius Gut, the relationship between coffee and your digestive system is much deeper than just a morning energy boost.

The “Ideal Pace” of Digestion

Dr. Leeming explains that coffee acts as a powerful stimulant for the intestines; it activates muscle contractions in the digestive tract, helping food move at a “good” and efficient pace.

  • A Natural Aid: For those suffering from “sluggish digestion,” coffee is considered an effective natural way to maintain regular bowel movements.

  • Exception for Colon Patients: This effect can be very strong for those with Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS), which may lead to discomfort or an urgent need to use the bathroom due to excessive acceleration of the digestive process.

Food for 100 Trillion Guests

Beyond moving the intestines, coffee is considered a “superfood” for the microbiome (beneficial bacteria). People who drink coffee regularly tend to have a greater and healthier diversity of gut bacteria.

  • The Power of Polyphenols: Coffee is a major source of polyphenols, which are antioxidants that act as a feast for beneficial bacteria.

  • Hidden Fiber: Surprisingly, coffee also contains a small amount of soluble plant fiber, which further supports gut health.

The “Sleep and Digestive System” Loop (The 12-Hour Rule)

The most important information from recent research is the importance of timing. Caffeine can stay in your body for up to 12 hours.

  • Sleep Connection: Drinking coffee late in the day ruins sleep quality, and poor sleep is directly linked to the deterioration of digestive health.

  • The Junk Food Trap: Sleep deprivation causes a state of “mental grogginess,” which often leads to poor food choices and increased cravings for sugars the next day, further harming the microbiome.

Golden Rules for a Healthy Cup

To achieve the maximum protective benefits of coffee without side effects, follow these science-based rules:

  1. The Noon Deadline: Stop drinking caffeinated coffee by midday. Replace it with decaf coffee or herbal tea in the afternoon to protect your sleep cycle.

  2. Monitor Sweeteners: 2.5 grams is the maximum amount of sugar allowed to ensure the protective benefits of coffee remain.

  3. Listen to Your Body: If coffee causes you stress or digestive upset, this is a signal from your “second brain” to reduce the amount.

Cheap Coffee Outperforms Brands in Safety by Roskontrol Ranking

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MOSCOW — QAHWA WORLD

As reported by the Russian news outlet “Nasha Gazeta,” a comprehensive audit of dozens of instant coffee brands conducted by “Roskontrol” experts has yielded unexpected results. The laboratory analysis revealed that several budget-friendly brands demonstrated higher levels of safety and transparency than world-renowned premium labels, providing a vital guide for consumers looking for a reliable morning brew.

The Bitter Truth Behind Your Coffee Jar

According to “Nasha Gazeta,” instant coffee is among the products most susceptible to counterfeiting. Some manufacturers add unauthorized fillers such as cereals, chicory, or cheap substitutes, while improper storage can lead to the formation of dangerous toxins. The “Roskontrol” study was more than a simple preference ranking; it was a rigorous safety inspection that tested for:

  • Mycotoxins (including the deadly Aflatoxin B1).

  • Heavy metals.

  • Hidden additives not listed on the label.

  • Chemical aftertaste and artificial bitterness.

The study confirmed that the bitterness many consumers associate with strong coffee is often not a characteristic of the beans themselves, but rather a sign of hidden chemical impurities.

Budget Champions: Quality Above Price

The report highlights that several affordable brands proved to be the most honest and safe. For those seeking a boost without health risks, the top-rated list includes:

  1. Auchan (Granulated): Described as the “dark horse” of the study, it was found to be completely safe with a transparent composition, containing even more caffeine than many of its pricier competitors.

  2. Nescafe Classic: This legendary brand confirmed its status with a clean laboratory record, showing no impurities and a stable flavor profile based on 100% natural beans.

  3. Bonvida: A clear example that low price does not mean poor quality, as it met all laboratory safety standards perfectly.

  4. Each Day (Kajdy Den): A basic and safe option for daily use, offering peace of mind without the added cost of a famous brand name.

For the Connoisseurs: The Freeze-Dried Distinction

The report notes that freeze-dried coffee differs significantly from traditional granulated versions, as its production technology preserves the essential oils and original aroma of the bean. The leaders in this category were:

  • Ambassador Platinum: Noted for its rich flavor, noble bitterness, and light fruity acidity, offering an experience very close to ground coffee.

  • Bushido Original: Praised by experts for its perfect balance of bitterness and acidity, delivering a harmonious and clean taste profile.

The Smart Buyer’s Guide

Based on the “Roskontrol” findings, “Nasha Gazeta” provides clear recommendations for consumers:

  • For Savings and Safety: Opt for brands like Auchan, Nescafe Classic, or Bonvida.

  • For Flavor and Aroma: Choose Ambassador Platinum or Bushido Original.

  • The Golden Rule: Always check the label for “100% natural coffee” and ensure it is the “freeze-dried” variety.

  • Health Tip: To ensure the protective benefits of the drink remain intact, 2.5 grams is the maximum sugar limit.

The publication concludes that the “Roskontrol” results are a compelling reason to reconsider buying habits. A morning cup should not just be a necessity for waking up, but a small daily celebration of a safe and high-quality product. As the source notes, if your usual brand did not make the success list, it is a perfect opportunity to try something new and truly superior.