Coffee Prices Drop Sharply Amid Record Global Supply Projections

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee market prices ended Friday’s sessions with a significant decline, as March Arabica coffee contracts dropped by 3.84% to close at -11.85, while March Robusta coffee fell by 1.75% to close at -67. This downward trend persisted throughout the week, with Arabica hitting a 6-month low and Robusta reaching its lowest level in nearly 6 months, pressured by reports confirming robust global supplies.

The Brazilian crop forecasting agency, Conab, reported that coffee production in Brazil for 2026 is expected to rise by 17.2%, reaching a record 66.2 million bags. This includes a projected 23.2% surge in Arabica production to 44.1 million bags and a 6.3% increase in Robusta to 22.1 million bags. In Vietnam, the world’s leading Robusta producer, exports in January jumped by 38.3%, adding further bearish pressure on prices, especially after 2025 exports had already risen by 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons.

Additionally, above-average rainfall in Brazil eased drought concerns. Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica-growing region, received 69.8 mm of rain in the week ending January 30, representing 117% of the historical average. Vietnam’s production for the 2025/2026 season is also projected to climb 6% to a 4-year high. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored inventories have begun to recover from previous lows; Arabica stocks rose from a nearly 2-year low to a 3-month high, and Robusta inventories showed a similar recovery.

Despite some supportive signals for prices, such as the Brazilian Trade Ministry reporting a 42.4% drop in January exports and the International Coffee Organization (ICO) noting a slight 0.3% dip in global shipments, the overall outlook remains focused on surplus. The USDA’s bi-annual report projects that world coffee production for 2025/2026 will increase by 2% to a record 178.8 million bags, with a significant 10.9% rise in Robusta output, even as total ending stocks are forecasted to decline by 5.4%.

Coffee in China: From the “Terroir” of Yunnan to the Skyscrapers of Shanghai

Dubai – Coffee World

In a land where time has been measured by tea harvest seasons for millennia, the rise of coffee appears as an economic and cultural miracle achieved in record time. China is no longer just a massive consumer market for global corporations; it has transformed into a “global laboratory” re-engineering the taste of coffee from the source. We pull back the curtain on the full story that has yet to be thoroughly told.

Forgotten Roots: How “Coffee” Saved the Highlands

The story began modestly in 1892 in the village of “Zhujula” in Yunnan Province, when a French missionary planted the first tree. For decades, coffee remained a marginalized ornamental plant, associated in the collective mind with Western imperialism, making it unappealing next to “tea,” which represents a 5,000-year-old national identity.

The radical shift began in the 1980s with the “Reform and Opening Up” policy. The Chinese government, in partnership with the World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme, launched an ambitious project to diversify the crops of poor farmers in mountainous regions as an alternative to traditional crops. Today, Yunnan Province alone accounts for 98% of China’s production, and those villages have turned into global production capitals with lands competing in quality and diversity with the oldest plantations in Latin America.

The Geography of Chinese “Terroir”

China enjoys unique agricultural regions that give its coffee a distinct identity, where mineral-rich volcanic soil meets high altitudes that force slow growth of the coffee cherries, allowing for the concentration of complex sugars within the bean.

1. Yunnan Province (The Rising Giant):

The “Coffee Belt” in Yunnan runs through the regions of Pu’er, Baoshan, and Dehong. Altitudes here range between 1,000 and 2,000 meters above sea level.

  • Climate: Yunnan features a long dry season that facilitates the natural drying process, giving the coffee “clean” flavors and a distinct sweetness.

  • Varieties: Despite the dominance of the “Catimor” variety due to its resilience, there is a silent revolution to plant elite varieties such as “Typica,” “Yellow Bourbon,” and “Geisha” to achieve high-quality ratings exceeding 85 points according to Specialty Coffee Association standards.

2. Hainan Island and Fujian:

These regions represent the tropical side; “Fine Robusta” thrives in Hainan, while Fujian is witnessing bold experiments in planting coffee in areas that were historically exclusive to the famous “Oolong” tea, despite the challenges of typhoons and high humidity.

The Processing Revolution

What distinguishes China in 2026 is its technical audacity. Chinese farmers are no longer just peasants; they are managing innovation laboratories:

  • Anaerobic Fermentation: Leading estates use pressure tanks to control fermentation, producing aromatic notes reminiscent of tropical fruits.

  • Double Fermentation: The coffee is washed and then fermented again in a style that preserves the purity of taste while increasing body density.

Comparative Analysis: China vs. Asian Coffee Giants (Production and Growth Data 2025-2026)

Comparison Point China (Yunnan) Vietnam Indonesia
Dominant Crop Type Arabica (95%) Robusta (90%) Mixed (75% Robusta)
Annual Production Volume ~160,000 Metric Tons ~1,800,000 Metric Tons ~750,000 Metric Tons
Strategic Focus Specialty Quality Mass Production Old Genetic Diversity
Elevation 1,000 – 2,000m 600 – 1,000m 800 – 1,500m
Local Consumption Growth 15 – 20% (Surge) 3.5 – 5% (Stable) 6 – 8% (Rising)
Market Price High (Specialty Arabica) Low (Commodity Market) Medium to High

Coffee as a Symbol of Digital Transformation

In major cities like Shanghai, coffee is no longer just a beverage; it is a tool for defining cultural and technical boundaries. Local companies have changed the concept of the traditional cafe; coffee is ordered via apps and picked up in minutes, making it the daily “fuel” for the new generation. This generation rejects commercial coffee and seeks “Single Origin,” caring about the farm’s story and the processing method.

The Chinese Cup Profile

Coffee from Yunnan is characterized by a rare balance; a full, silky body reminiscent of milk chocolate, with caramel sweetness and notes of stone fruits such as peach and apricot. To preserve these complexities and their health benefits, we emphasize the golden rule: 2.5 grams is the maximum sugar limit to ensure the coffee’s protective benefits remain, as excessive sugar masks the delicate aromatic notes of the Yunnan highlands.

Roadmap for Investors and Roasters

To reach the heart of the coffee industry in China and avoid the traps of middlemen who re-export crops at double prices, the following should be observed:

  1. Direct Trade: Dealing directly with estates that own their own processing stations in Baoshan.

  2. Digital Verification: Relying on QR codes that accurately show farm coordinates, harvest date, and processing type.

  3. Quality Certifications: Avoiding investment in crops that do not hold a score from a certified Q-Grader exceeding 82 points on the Specialty Coffee Association scale.

Challenges and Future Horizons (2026-2030)

Despite incredible success, coffee in China faces real challenges such as climate change and coastal typhoons, in addition to the historical competition with tea in rural areas. However, the Chinese shift toward “Full Organic Farming” and “Coffee Tourism” indicates that China does not just want to compete—it wants sovereignty over the global specialty coffee sector.

Investigative Conclusion:

China is no longer “discovering” coffee; it has begun “exporting” its own culture to the world. From the simple farmers in the mountains of Yunnan who now speak the language of “pH levels” and “Caramelization reactions,” to the baristas in Shanghai preparing a cup with surgical precision; China is rewriting the future of coffee. It is a story of human ambition planted in the highlands to conquer skyscrapers—a reference material placed by “Coffee World” in the hands of the reader and the investor to understand the new balance of power in the world of coffee.

The Next Matcha Supply Shock

By Fabricio Scocco

The global matcha market is standing at a precarious crossroads. While the vibrant green powder has become a staple of wellness culture in the Northern Hemisphere, a new player is beginning to stir: South America. As an industry, we must face a sobering reality—matcha production is not infinitely scalable. When South America fully “activates” its demand, we will see a massive stress test on an already fragile global system.

  • Current Market Snapshot

In South America, market maturity is still in its infancy. While the presence of matcha is visible in specialty cafes and among wellness-focused early adopters, there is a significant gap between interest and education.

On the ground, we observe frequent confusion between ceremonial and culinary grades, and even between true matcha and generic green powders. Furthermore, access to fresh matcha is extremely limited. Information regarding transparent origin, milling dates, and harvest standards remains largely unavailable to the general consumer.

  • Structural Constraints

Matcha production is inherently limited by nature and craft. Key bottlenecks include:

Limited cultivation regions and strict shade-growing requirements.

Labor-intensive harvesting processes.

Physical limits on stone-milling capacity.

High risks of quality degradation at scale.

Ceremonial-grade matcha is already scarce, and producers are prioritizing long-term buyers with predictable volumes.

  • The South American Activation

When demand in South America accelerates, we anticipate several global shifts:

Supply Pressure: Increased competition for high-grade matcha will lead to longer lead times and price volatility.

Quality Risks: A surge in demand increases the likelihood of old stock being sold as premium, blends with filters, and mislabeling of origins.

Logistics: Matcha is highly sensitive to oxygen, light, and heat. Long transport routes into South America increase the risk of degradation, making freshness management a core competitive advantage.

  • Strategic Opportunities

For South American brands and global producers, the advantage will not come from mass availability, but from precision.

Producers: Secure long-term partnerships before demand spikes to protect pricing integrity.

Distributors: Act as quality gatekeepers by investing in cold chain awareness and faster stock rotation.

South American Brands: Focus on workshops, tastings, and transparent communication to build trust before scaling.

  • Bottom Line

South America is late to the trend, but it is not irrelevant. The winners in this market will not be those who sell the most matcha, but those who secure supply early, protect quality relentlessly, and educate before scaling. This market will reward patience and credibility over speed alone.

Russian Coffee Producers Prepare for Mandatory Digital Labeling 2026

Moscow – Qahwa World

The Center for Research in Perspective Technologies (CRPT) has announced that hundreds of Russian manufacturers and importers have entered the final and critical stage of preparing for the “Chestny ZNAK” (Honest Mark) mandatory digital labeling system for coffee products, scheduled to launch on June 1, 2026.

The system operator emphasized that early preparation is the primary guarantee for businesses to ensure a smooth transition and minimize operational risks, noting that it provides comprehensive support to participants through specialized workshops and educational materials.

In this context, Maria Bredneva, a representative of Coffee Workshop Ltd, stated that the product labeling process for small and medium-sized factories requires systematic adaptation and preparation.

She noted that their early participation in the pilot program helped them understand the mechanisms of the process and utilize affordable technologies to simplify the integration of labeling into production lines, thereby reducing the operational burden and allowing for the effective use of system tools. Similarly, Grigory Balayants, General Director of K-Grand, pointed out that the successful launch of digital labeling for cocoa last December facilitated the current preparation for coffee products.

He added that the company is currently installing the necessary equipment, which ultimately aims to help consumers verify the authenticity and quality of the product.

The digital labeling system is designed to protect consumers from counterfeit goods by tracking the product’s journey from the factory to the end buyer via a unique Data Matrix code printed on each coffee package.

The code is issued based on comprehensive data provided by the manufacturer in a digital catalog, and the entire supply chain is reflected through an Electronic Document Interchanges (EDI) system until the product is officially retired from circulation at the point of sale.

The cost of a single code is 50 kopecks, which may increase the final cost by 10% to 22% depending on the product category.

Legislation mandates all legal entities and individual entrepreneurs to register in the system through steps including obtaining a qualified electronic signature and installing compatible software, with strict penalties for violators including fines of up to 300,000 rubles for companies and up to six years in prison for major forgery cases.

According to estimates from the HSE Institute for Public and Municipal Management, coffee labeling will contribute to reducing illegal turnover—which currently accounts for 13% of the market—and inject approximately 20 billion rubles in additional tax revenue into the state budget over the next six years, while enabling consumers to check product safety directly via a mobile application.

Ethiopian Women Lead Coffee Sustainability via Cascara

Addis Ababa – Qahwa World x Buna Kurs

As the AFCA conference continues, a focused side event at Creative Hub Ethiopia turned attention to an often-overlooked part of the coffee cherry: cascara. Sip, Savor, Sustain: Ethiopian Cascara Tasting brought together industry professionals, creatives, coffee producers, and coffee enthusiasts to explore how circular economy practices can create new opportunities—particularly for women in coffee.

The event was organized by the Center for Circular Economy in Coffee (C4CEC) in collaboration with Women in Coffee Ethiopia (WiCE) and Muna Mohammed, Founder and CEO of Eight50 Coffee in Canada, with support from the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation (AICS) and UNIDO, and in partnership with Ethiopia’s Ministry of Labor and Skills. Spanish Cooperation supported research on women in coffee and facilitated the participation of a woman coffee farmer to share firsthand experience from the field. The initiative builds on a research and pilot capacity-building program focused on coffee by-product valorization, implemented with women producers.

While cascara is gaining international attention, Ethiopian communities—especially women—have long brewed the dried coffee cherry as hashara tea, embedding sustainability into daily life long before it became a global concept.

During the event, cascara was served as tea, offering participants a sensory introduction to how coffee by-products can be transformed into market-ready products with export potential.

A key highlight of the evening was the emphasis on women’s participation in value addition across the coffee value chain. Women in Coffee Ethiopia (WiCE) emphasized that cascara represents a practical pathway for women producers to diversify income while reducing environmental waste from coffee processing.

The human impact of this approach was reflected in a presentation by a woman coffee producer representing a women-led cooperative from a major coffee-growing region of Ethiopia. Sharing her experience, she noted that cascara production and related training have improved household income, strengthened technical skills, and expanded economic opportunities for women in her community.

By turning what was once considered waste into a high-value product, cascara creates a second income stream that can directly benefit women-led cooperatives without requiring additional land or resources. At the same time, it supports environmental sustainability by reducing by-product disposal and promoting circular economy models within Ethiopia’s coffee sector.

The event drew a diverse audience of development partners, cooperatives, entrepreneurs, and industry representatives, reinforcing growing interest in inclusive, women-centered coffee innovations.

As Ethiopia continues to position itself as a global leader in specialty coffee, initiatives like Sip, Savor, Sustain demonstrate that the future of the sector lies not only in the bean, but in the full coffee fruit—and in empowering the women who have long been at the heart of its journey.

AFCA 2026 Officially Opens in Addis Ababa

Brewing Africa’s Next Generation

Addis Ababa – Qahwa World x Buna Kurs

The 22nd African Fine Coffees Conference & Exhibition (AFCC&E) officially opened today at the Addis International Convention Center (AICC), marking a major milestone for Africa’s coffee sector. Following yesterday’s pre-conference Sustainability Day workshops, the event welcomed over 2,000 delegates from more than 25 countries, including government officials, private sector leaders, international buyers, and coffee experts.

A Vision for the Future This year’s theme, “Brewing Africa’s Next Generation,” underscores a commitment to modernizing the value chain, integrating youth into the sector, and building climate resilience. AFCA Chairperson Amir Hamza described the event as a “homecoming for coffee,” adding: “Africa will no longer just supply fine coffees to the world—we will define the future of coffee.”

Breaking Trade Barriers A highlight of the opening was the high-level panel discussion, “Why Do Roasters Find It Harder to Buy Directly from Africa?” presented by Algrano. Strategic partner Algrano brought a delegation of over 20 international buyers from the US and Europe to engage directly with African producers. Panelists focused on solutions to logistics bottlenecks, financing gaps, and late contracting that often hinder smallholder farmers from accessing global markets.

Exhibition Floor Highlights The trade floor is now fully buzzing with booths showcasing innovations in coffee technology, logistics, and premium green coffee. Cupping sessions are underway, featuring the winners from AFCA’s flagship competition, the Taste of Harvest, in addition to fresh Ethiopian harvests.

Delegates also explored value-addition technologies aimed at moving beyond raw bean exports to roasting and branding at origin. Policy initiatives introduced today include a gender-responsive framework designed to increase women’s participation in agricultural extension and decision-making, developed in partnership with the Ethiopian government and GIZ.

Economic and Sectoral Momentum The conference is already shaping critical discussions on coffee strategy, and analysts note that initiatives highlighted at AFCA are being seen as a platform to position Africa as a proactive player in global coffee pricing and innovation. The conference continues tomorrow and will feature the finals of the Africa Barista Championship and the Regional Taste of Harvest Competition, in addition to AFCA’s Burundi Taste of Harvest Auction.

Coffee Quality Institute Announces 2026 Global Coffee Fund Details

Addis Ababa – Qahwa World

Coffee Quality Institute (CQI) announced the details of its 2026 Global Coffee Fund (the Fund) program at the African Fine Coffee Association Conference and Exhibition. The Fund was developed to expand access to coffee quality education and advance CQI’s mission.

“CQI knows that the coffee sector is facing extraordinary challenges, and the Global Coffee Fund is one way we are working to address them,” said Michael Sheridan, chief executive officer of Coffee Quality Institute. “At a time when the public sector is disinvesting in coffee communities, CQI is tripling our commitment to the Global Coffee Fund and inviting the industry to co-invest. Together we can mobilize $500,000 to benefit coffee communities in 2026. I can’t think of a better way to mark our 30th anniversary.”

The Global Coffee Fund will invest in coffee quality through support to two distinct programs.

  • Project Awards

CQI will continue its existing successful grant program in 2026 and commit up to $100,000 to fund projects that enhance access to coffee education and promote the development of educators in areas that lack sufficient local representation.

  • Matching Grants

This year CQI is launching a Matching Grant for co-investment with partners whose own work aligns with CQI’s mission and values. CQI will provide a dollar-for-dollar match for $200,000 of external investment in qualifying projects with a goal of generating $400,000 in new commitments in 2026.

“I am very excited about the expansion of the Global Coffee Fund for 2026. The addition of the Matching Grant program will enable CQI to leverage and expand our global partnerships and network of coffee experts to increase impact at the producer level,” stated T.J. Ryan, managing director of programs at CQI. “More than just a financial match, the fund will seek partners with whom we have shared objectives to build a more resilient coffee sector.”

  • Further information regarding the Fund and application materials are available on the Coffee Quality Institute’s website. Applications will be accepted on a rolling basis.About Coffee Quality Institute

    CQI is a non-profit that works globally to improve the quality of coffee and the lives of the people who produce it. For thirty years, CQI has trained people who produce and process coffee in more than thirty coffee-growing countries around the world.

Coffee Prices Slide on Improved Supply Outlook

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices extended their week-long decline on Wednesday, pressured by signs of improving global supply. March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed down 8.45 cents (-2.66%), while March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) fell 49 points (-1.29%).

Arabica prices dropped to a 5.75-month low, and robusta touched a six-week low. The market has been weighed down by favourable weather and rising production expectations, particularly in Brazil and Vietnam.

Above-average rainfall in Brazil has eased concerns about dryness in key growing regions. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais—the country’s largest Arabica-producing state—received 69.8 mm of rain in the week ended January 30, or 117% of the historical average.

Brazil’s supply outlook also turned more bearish after Conab, the country’s crop forecasting agency, raised its 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, up from 55.20 million bags projected in September.

Robusta prices have been further pressured by strong export and production prospects in Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that 2025 coffee exports rose 17.5% year over year to 1.58 million metric tonnes. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to increase 6% year over year to 1.76 million metric tonnes (29.4 million bags), a four-year high. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has also said output could rise 10% from the previous season if weather conditions remain favourable.

Rising exchange inventories have added to bearish sentiment. ICE-monitored Arabica inventories rebounded to 461,829 bags on January 7, a 3.25-month high, after falling to a 1.75-year low in mid-November. ICE robusta inventories also recovered, climbing to a two-month high of 4,662 lots after reaching a 13-month low in December.

Some factors have provided limited support. Brazil’s coffee exports declined sharply in December, according to Cecafe. Total green coffee exports fell 18.4% year over year to 2.86 million bags, with Arabica exports down 10% and Robusta exports down 61%.

The International Coffee Organization reported that global coffee exports for the current October–September marketing year slipped 0.3% year over year to 138.66 million bags, signalling tighter trade flows.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects global coffee production in 2025/26 will rise 2.0% year over year to a record 178.85 million bags. Arabica production is forecast to fall 4.7% to 95.52 million bags, while robusta output is expected to jump 10.9% to 83.33 million bags. Brazil’s production is projected to decline 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is forecast to rise 6.2% to a four-year high of 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are expected to fall 5.4% to 20.15 million bags.

Sustainability Day Sets the Technical and Policy Tone at AFCC&E

Addis Ababa – Qahwa World × Buna Kurs

Day One of the 22nd African Fine Coffees Conference & Exhibition (AFCC&E) concluded in Addis Ababa with sustainability firmly positioned as the cornerstone of this year’s continental coffee dialogue. Following the morning’s high-level opening ceremony, the conference program transitioned into the 7th AFCA Sustainability Day, delivered in partnership with the Rainforest Alliance under the theme “Sustainability in Every Cup: Brewing a Regenerative Future, Today.”

At the center of the day’s agenda was the presentation and launch of the Rainforest Alliance Regenerative Agriculture Standard (RAS), a new certification framework designed to move beyond compliance toward ecosystem restoration and long-term farmer resilience across tropical landscapes.

Across the venue, the exhibition hall remained active throughout the day, with strong foot traffic from producers, exporters, buyers, service providers, and development partners. Exhibitors noted a visibly expanded floor layout and higher engagement compared to previous editions, reflecting both the growing scale of the event and renewed market interest in African coffee origins.

The Sustainability Day program highlighted how regenerative agriculture is being applied in practice across East Africa, with experiences shared from Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia, including MSuLLi, Mountain Harvest, Moplaco Farm, and sector partners working at farm, landscape, and market levels. A dedicated youth testimony segment reinforced a growing generational consensus: sustainability is no longer an add-on, but a prerequisite for remaining competitive in the global coffee sector.

Afternoon sessions shifted the discussion to the value of sustainability standards within the global supply chain, examining how certification, traceability, and transparency are increasingly shaping trade relationships. Panels featuring exporters, producers, and international buyers addressed the commercial realities of sustainability, with participation from Midrock Investments Group, Touton, ECOM, AMG Coffee Export, Preferred by Nature, and regional producer representatives.

Beyond the conference hall, B2B cupping sessions continued alongside networking activities, offering international buyers early exposure to coffees from across Africa while reinforcing the link between quality, sustainability, and market access.

Day One concluded with an invitation-only policy and networking reception, followed by the Opening Cocktail at the AICC Amphitheater, marking the informal start of a week expected to shape Africa’s coffee sustainability agenda for years to come.

Robusta: A Climate-Resilient Future

Dubai – Qahwa World

As climate change and escalating environmental pressures create unprecedented challenges for global coffee production, the industry is facing a critical turning point that threatens the sustainability of the entire supply chain. In response, World Coffee Research (WCR) is spearheading a massive international effort to develop high-performing, climate-resilient varieties designed to thrive in an increasingly volatile environment. A major strategic shift occurred in late 2025 when WCR integrated Robusta breeding into its Innovea Global Coffee Breeding Network. This expansion recognizes that relying solely on Arabica is no longer a viable long-term strategy in the face of rapid global warming. As a committed member of WCR, Sucafina has expressed its pride in supporting this essential research, emphasizing that investing in variety development is the only definitive way to safeguard the future of coffee and secure the livelihoods of millions of farmers who form the backbone of the industry.

Coffee-growing conditions worldwide are undergoing forced evolution, requiring farmers at origin to adapt to weather patterns that no longer follow traditional predictability. Additionally, they must battle new strains of pests and diseases that thrive in rising temperatures. Strengthening the long-term resilience of the coffee supply has become a top priority, as high-performing varieties act as a vital shield, helping farmers mitigate climate stress while ensuring reliable, high-quality yields. However, the industry faces a significant temporal challenge: the process of developing, scientifically testing, and commercially releasing a new variety typically spans several decades—a timeframe the world cannot afford given the acceleration of climate change. Addressing these challenges requires practical, long-term collaboration, which is the core mission of WCR as an industry-driven research organization dedicated to identifying and developing the coffee varieties of tomorrow.

The launch of the Innovea program in 2022 marked a revolution in coffee breeding, designed to accelerate development by uniting national research institutes, governments, and the private sector across 11 countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia. Operating under standardized trial protocols, the network coordinates breeding efforts on a global scale, testing candidates across diverse soils, climates, and disease pressures. By pooling massive datasets and cross-border expertise, promising varieties are identified far more rapidly than through traditional methods, while ensuring they are perfectly suited for local farming systems. This innovative approach received global acclaim when Innovea was named one of TIME’s Best Inventions of 2025, recognizing its power to provide tangible solutions to one of agriculture’s most complex challenges.

Vern Long, CEO of WCR, explains that the program’s structure allows for a step change in variety performance faster than ever before, shortening development timelines from 30 years down to just eight. As climate challenges intensify, a continuous global pipeline of improved varieties will provide farmers with the tools needed to reduce risk and stabilize their income. Historically, breeding efforts focused almost exclusively on Arabica, despite the rise of Robusta, which now accounts for approximately 40% of global production. This shift is driven by Robusta’s natural heat tolerance and market dynamics. Robusta possesses greater genetic diversity than Arabica, yet its breeding is more complex as it cannot self-pollinate, requiring sophisticated management of parent plants. By late 2025, Robusta was fully integrated into the Innovea network, bringing in major producers like Vietnam and Ghana alongside enhanced programs in India, Indonesia, Rwanda, and Uganda. Together, these nations represent 64% of global Robusta production. The ultimate goal is to move these varieties from the lab to the field, evaluating thousands of candidates to identify the best performers that will secure a stable and sustainable foundation for the future of coffee.

The Coffee Leaf’s Second Life

By Dr. Steffen Schwarz, Coffee Consulate

There is a peculiar irony in the coffee business: we have spent more than a century perfecting how we roast, grind, extract, foam, chill, carbonate, nitrogen-infuse and brand a seed, while the plant that produces it has been standing all along as a far larger, greener biomass—photosynthesising, defending itself, interacting with shade trees, fungi and insects, and repeatedly regenerating its canopy after pruning. The leaf is the coffee plant’s true working organ: an engine of carbohydrates and a chemical laboratory that negotiates sunlight and drought, pests and pathogens, growth and recovery. And yet, in most producing countries, coffee leaves have been treated as little more than compost, mulch, or a nuisance swept aside during canopy management. That is now changing, and not simply because the world enjoys novelty. Coffee leaf tea is emerging at the intersection of ethnobotany and modern food law, of phytochemistry and sensory design, and—most importantly for decision makers—of farm economics and operational resilience.

Coffee leaf infusions are not an invention of the wellness era. They are older than espresso, older than filter coffee, older than the first international coffee prices. In several coffee-producing regions, leaves have long been infused, decocted, mixed with milk, or combined with spices and herbs to create beverages that sit somewhere between nourishment, social ritual and folk medicine. The scientific and cultural value of this heritage is easy to underestimate, especially if one’s mental map of coffee begins at the port and ends at the café. Yet the ethnographic record is clear: leaf-based coffee drinks have been prepared and consumed in places as varied as Ethiopia, South Sudan, Indonesia, Jamaica and India, often under local names that signal not a substitute for coffee, but a beverage category of its own.

In Ethiopia, coffee leaf brew is widely known in multiple regions and languages—Chemo, Kuti, Hayta Tuke, Kitel Buna—each name carrying the weight of daily habits and community meanings. The leaves are not merely steeped; they are processed through cleaning, crushing or chopping, boiling, spicing, straining, serving. The result is a drink that can be mild or intense, pale gold or deep brown, lightly herbal or richly aromatic, depending on leaf maturity, drying, brewing time, and the chosen constellation of botanicals.

One of the most detailed recent documentations of these practices comes from the Gofa Zone in South Ethiopia, where Eyasu Yohannis and colleagues recorded indigenous coffee leaf brew and a related preparation called Engere, a blend of coffee leaf brew and cow’s milk. Their work does something crucial for our industry: it moves the conversation away from vague stories of “traditional use” and towards measurable patterns of ingredients, processes and consumption. In their community-based survey, the authors found that coffee leaf brew is not an occasional curiosity; it is embedded in daily life. A majority of respondents described it as a staple, stimulating beverage, while others linked it explicitly to medicinal value and cultural ceremonies. Engere, meanwhile, occupies a different functional niche: it is widely perceived as strength-enhancing, supportive for physically demanding work, and beneficial for lactating women, postpartum recovery and stamina.

The brewing practices described in Gofa are remarkably concrete. Coffee leaves are harvested by cutting terminal portions of the plant—precisely the same anatomical zone that farm managers already target in canopy control—then cleaned and washed, crushed with mortar and pestle or a traditional wooden grinder, and boiled in water typically in the range of 85–100 °C. The documented spice and herb palette is extensive—Ruta chalepensis, coriander fruit, garlic leaf, ginger, basil, lemongrass, chilli, Ethiopian cardamom, fennel, salt—an aromatic architecture that resembles a culinary broth more than a minimalist tea. This matters because it tells us that coffee leaf beverages in their indigenous context have already undergone centuries of consumer testing: bitterness has been managed, aroma has been amplified, mouthfeel and perceived warmth have been engineered through botanical synergy.

For modern markets, this ethnographic depth is more than storytelling. It is a starting point for applied product development. The Gofa data reveal three distinct brewing logics: a combined boiling method where leaf and minor ingredients meet in one pot; a separated boiling method where components are brewed individually and combined later; and a leaf-only approach used particularly for Engere without added botanicals. These are, essentially, three different extraction strategies.

This is where Europe enters the narrative in a decisive way. Coffee leaf infusion is no longer merely an indigenous beverage; it is now a legally defined food category within the European Union. On 1 July 2020, the EU authorised the placing on the market of infusion from coffee leaves as a traditional food from a third country through Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/917. The regulatory framing is not trivial. By treating coffee leaf infusion as a traditional food under the Novel Food Regulation, the EU effectively acknowledged that a long history of safe consumption outside Europe can form part of a safety argument.

For coffee businesses, EU authorisation changes the strategic landscape. It reduces regulatory uncertainty for importers, roasters and beverage developers. It invites investment in leaf supply chains, not only for niche “novelty teas” but for scalable beverage categories: ready-to-drink formats, sparkling botanical blends, functional infusions, cold brews, and milk-based variants.

The scientific literature suggests that coffee leaves are not simply “coffee without beans”. They contain a complex set of phytochemicals, including phenolic compounds with antioxidant capacity and bioactivities that have been discussed in relation to anti-inflammatory and antihypertensive effects. A crucial commercial insight lies in caffeine itself. Many consumers want the ritual and complexity of coffee-like beverages, but with less stimulant load. Coffee leaf infusions typically contain caffeine, but the overall experience can be positioned differently from espresso-driven intensity.

However, no beverage category survives on sensory novelty alone. The deeper business relevance of coffee leaf tea lies in what it can do at origin. For decades, the coffee sector has discussed farmer income, price volatility, and the fragility of livelihoods. Coffee leaf tea, if commercialised responsibly, can shift part of this debate into operational economics: it can create an additional product stream from the same farm, using a biomass that is already generated in canopy management. That is not merely “extra income”; it is income diversification, and diversification is one of the most reliable ways to increase resilience in agricultural systems.

If we approach coffee leaf tea with the seriousness it deserves—honouring its origins, applying rigorous process science, designing compelling sensory styles, and building supply chains that reward farmers for better agronomy—we will not merely sell another beverage. We will create a mechanism through which coffee farms can become more stable employers, more productive agricultural systems, and more resilient businesses. In a world where coffee’s future is increasingly shaped by climate stress and economic uncertainty, a leaf may seem like a small thing. But in biology and in business, small things are often the levers that change the whole system.

Arabica Coffee Gains on Technical Support Amid Mixed Market Performance

Dubai – Qahwa WORLD

March Arabica coffee (KCH26) concluded Monday’s session with a gain of +1.00 (+0.30%), while March ICE Robusta coffee (RMH26) saw a notable decline, closing down -84 (-2.04%) at a four-week low. The market showed a mixed performance as substantial rainfall in Brazil improved yield prospects but pressured prices. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s premier Arabica region, received 69.8 mm of rain during the week ending January 30, representing 117% of the historical average.

Further weighing on the market, Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, recently increased its 2025 total coffee production forecast by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags. Meanwhile, Robusta prices faced significant headwinds from surging exports in Vietnam, the world’s top Robusta producer. Official statistics from January 5 indicated a +17.5% year-over-year jump in Vietnamese coffee exports to 1.58 MMT. Production for the 2025/26 cycle in Vietnam is projected to rise +6% to 1.76 MMT, a four-year high, with Vicofa suggesting a potential 10% increase if weather remains favorable.

The recovery of ICE-monitored inventories has also exerted downward pressure on prices. Arabica stocks climbed to a 3.25-month high of 461,829 bags in early January, recovering from a multi-year low recorded in November. Similarly, Robusta inventories reached a two-month high of 4,662 lots last Monday. On the supportive side, Cecafe reported an -18.4% decline in Brazil’s December green coffee exports, with Arabica shipments down -10% and Robusta exports falling sharply by -61%.

Globally, the International Coffee Organization noted a marginal -0.3% decrease in exports for the current marketing year. However, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service predicts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, a +2.0% increase. This forecast anticipates a -4.7% drop in Arabica output alongside a +10.9% surge in Robusta production. Ending stocks for the 2025/26 period are expected to decline by -5.4% to 20.148 million bags.