Tag: Coffee Prices

ICO: Coffee Prices Hit Historic Surge as Exports Decline

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Dubai, September 3, 2025 (Qahwa World) – The International Coffee Organization (ICO) in its August 2025 report revealed unprecedented shifts in the global coffee market, with the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) rising by 14.6% to 297.05 US cents per pound – its highest level since 2024 and 24.3% higher year-on-year. At the same time, the report highlighted that global green coffee exports continued to contract for the sixth consecutive month, underscoring the dual pressure of soaring prices and shrinking supplies.

Historic Price Surge
According to the ICO, all coffee groups recorded strong gains. Robusta led the surge with a 19.1% increase to 199.13 US cents per pound, while Colombian Milds, Brazilian Naturals, and Other Milds rose between 12% and 14%. Futures prices also jumped sharply, with New York contracts up 13.6% and London contracts up 18.2%, signaling broad-based upward momentum.

Market Drivers
The report identified multiple factors fueling the rally:

  • The United States’ 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, slowing down commercialization.

  • Brazil’s government support through the Funcafé fund, allocating BRL 6.8 billion (USD 1.29 billion) to finance the 2025/26 harvest.

  • Reports of lower bean density in Brazil despite large screen size, reducing crop estimates.

  • European roasters stockpiling ahead of the EU’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) deadline in December 2025.

  • A minor frost in Brazil damaging up to half a million bags.

  • Roasters increasing long positions in futures markets to hedge against further price hikes.

Export Downturn
The ICO report also showed global green coffee exports reaching 10.3 million bags in July 2025, down 0.7% from July 2024. South America posted the steepest decline (-18.5%), driven by Brazil’s 28.6% fall in shipments.

Regional Contrasts

  • Asia & Oceania exports surged by 22.7%, led by Vietnam (+29.4%) and Indonesia (+20.4%).

  • Africa’s exports rose 4.4%, with Uganda (+51.4%) and Ethiopia (+12.5%) as key contributors.

  • Mexico & Central America posted a moderate increase of 7.2%.

Looking Ahead
The ICO emphasized that the combination of rising prices and falling exports places the global coffee market in a volatile phase. With the EUDR coming into effect by year-end and climate-related risks looming over major producers, coffee is set to remain one of the most vulnerable agricultural commodities to both economic and environmental shocks.

Brazil’s Coffee Paradox: Global Prices Drop While Local Costs Surge

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Dubai, September 3, 2025 (Qahwa World) – While global coffee prices are falling due to heavy rainfall in Brazil and the near completion of the harvest, consumers in the world’s largest producer and exporter are facing the opposite reality: higher prices for roasted and instant coffee in the domestic market.

December arabica futures fell 3.44%, while November robusta dropped 3.28% to a one-week low. Weather data from Somar Meteorologia showed that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region, received 10.1 mm of rain in the week ending August 30 – 163% of the historical average.

Meanwhile, Cooxupé, Brazil’s biggest coffee cooperative, reported that its members’ harvest was 94.9% complete as of August 29. Safras & Mercado confirmed that Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest was 99% finished by August 20, with robusta fully harvested and arabica 98% complete.

In contrast, roasters 3 Coracoes and Melitta announced fresh price hikes in Brazil starting September 1. 3 Coracoes raised roasted and ground coffee prices by 10% and instant coffee by 7%, while Melitta increased prices by 15%. These hikes follow earlier rises: 11% in January and 14.3% in March by 3 Coracoes, and a 25% increase by Melitta last December.

This creates a striking paradox in Brazil’s coffee market: while international prices are easing thanks to favorable weather and ample harvests, local consumers are paying more, driven by climate volatility, a 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee imports, and rising raw bean costs.

Global arabica prices have already climbed more than 20% this year after a 70% surge in 2024. With tariffs in place, U.S. roasters have been tapping existing stockpiles, adding further pressure.

The Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC) noted a brief drop in retail prices in August as futures eased from record highs, but warned that the trend would reverse once tariffs took effect — and that reversal is now underway. Major roasters are struggling to balance costs as consumers shift toward cheaper supermarket brands.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects global coffee production to rise 2.5% in 2025/26 to a record 178.7 million bags. Yet trader Volcafe forecasts a widening global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags — the fifth straight year of shortages. This contradiction — falling global prices alongside rising domestic costs in Brazil — sets the stage for continued turbulence in the coffee market.

Coffee Prices Surge as ICE Inventories Hit Multi-Year Lows

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Dubai, August 27, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee markets staged a sharp turnaround by Wednesday’s close, with both arabica and robusta futures rallying strongly as dwindling ICE inventories and tightening export flows outweighed harvest pressure from Brazil. The rebound highlights the volatility gripping global coffee trade, where supply constraints and policy shifts continue to drive rapid intraday price swings.

On the ICE exchange, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) jumped +13.00 (+3.49%), while November robusta (RMX25) surged +188 (+4.01%), with robusta touching a three-month high. The rally came just hours after arabica futures had slipped on harvest pressure, underscoring how quickly sentiment is shifting.

ICE-monitored stocks remain a key bullish driver. Arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 716,578 bags, while robusta dropped to a one-month low of 6,611 lots. Traders say the tightening certified stockpiles are providing strong underlying support, particularly for robusta. At the same time, Brazil’s harvest is almost complete. Cooxupé, the country’s largest cooperative, reported members were 91.3% finished by August 22, while Safras & Mercado estimated 99% of the crop complete, with robusta fully harvested and arabica at 98%. This progress has been weighing on prices, yet the bullish impact of falling inventories and weaker exports is increasingly dominant.

July export figures underline this trend. Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported a 20.4% year-on-year decline in unroasted coffee exports, totaling 161,000 metric tons. Cecafé confirmed a broader contraction, citing a 28% fall in green coffee exports to 2.4 million bags. Arabica exports dropped 21%, while robusta plunged 49%. Shipments for the first seven months of 2025 are down 21% at 22.2 million bags.

Outside Brazil, fundamentals remain tight. Vietnam’s 2023/24 crop fell 20% year-on-year to 1.47 million metric tons due to drought, the smallest in four years. Exports in 2024 declined 17%, though shipments this year have rebounded, rising 6.9% between January and July. At the global level, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported June exports up 7.3% year-on-year to 11.69 million bags, though cumulative shipments since October are slightly lower at -0.2%.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects record global production of 178.68 million bags in 2025/26, driven by robusta’s 7.9% expansion. Arabica output is expected to contract by 1.7% to 97 million bags. Despite this, Volcafé forecasts a deepening arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags, widening from this year’s 5.5 million, marking the fifth consecutive annual shortfall.

The market’s day-to-day volatility highlights the tension between short-term harvest pressure and long-term structural supply constraints. With U.S. buyers canceling contracts following 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee, and inventories at multi-year lows, analysts warn the coming months could bring continued turbulence for global coffee prices.

Arabica Coffee Slips as Brazil’s Harvest Nears Completion

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Dubai, August 27, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Arabica coffee futures fell on Tuesday as pressure from Brazil’s near-complete harvest weighed on the market, while robusta prices gained on tightening supply signals. On the ICE exchange, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed down 1.44% at -5.45, while November robusta (RMU25) climbed 0.86% (+40). The divergence reflects the complex forces shaping global coffee markets at the end of August.

Brazil’s influential Cooxupé cooperative announced that as of August 22, its members had completed 91.3% of their 2025/26 harvest, signaling an abundant flow of fresh beans into the market. Independent consultancy Safras & Mercado reported even higher progress, noting 99% of Brazil’s harvest complete, including 100% of robusta and 98% of arabica. Such rapid progress has increased selling pressure, pushing arabica futures lower despite ongoing concerns about weather damage in Minas Gerais, the country’s top arabica-growing region. Somar Meteorologia reported no rainfall in the week ending August 23, following frost damage earlier in the month.

Counterbalancing the harvest pressure, exchange-monitored stocks remain tight. ICE arabica inventories dropped to a 1.25-year low of 717,113 bags, while robusta inventories fell to a one-month low of 6,614 lots, underpinning prices. Additional upward pressure stems from U.S. market disruptions, where buyers are canceling contracts for Brazilian coffee following the imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports. With Brazil supplying nearly one-third of unroasted beans to the U.S., the restrictions are tightening American supplies.

Brazil’s July export data highlighted another bullish element. The Trade Ministry reported a 20.4% year-on-year decline in unroasted coffee exports to 161,000 metric tons. Exporter group Cecafé confirmed the trend, citing a 28% fall in green coffee exports to 2.4 million bags. Arabica shipments dropped 21%, while robusta exports plunged 49% compared to July 2024. For the first seven months of 2025, Cecafé recorded a 21% decline in Brazil’s overall coffee exports, totaling 22.2 million bags.

Global indicators, however, showed a mixed picture. The International Coffee Organization reported that global June exports rose 7.3% year-on-year, reaching 11.69 million bags, although October–June cumulative exports slipped slightly by 0.2%. In Vietnam, drought weighed heavily on 2023/24 production, which fell 20% to 1.47 million metric tons, the smallest crop in four years. Exports also slumped 17% in 2024, though this year’s January–July shipments rose 6.9%.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects record global coffee production in 2025/26 at 178.68 million bags, led by a 7.9% increase in robusta output. Arabica production, however, is expected to decline by 1.7% to 97 million bags. Despite this, traders remain cautious, as Volcafé forecasts an arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025/26, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortfalls, compared with a 5.5 million bag deficit in the current cycle.

New Study Reveals the Secrets of Coffee Price Networks: What Do Quality and America Have to Do with It?

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Dubai – August 25, 2025 (Qahwa World) – A groundbreaking academic study titled Quality differences, location, and coffee price return networks: Insights from a high-dimensional CoVaR-copula analysis has shed light on the hidden mechanisms driving coffee price dynamics worldwide. The research highlights that both quality and geographic location play a central role in shaping risk spillovers and market interconnections across the global coffee trade.

The study analyzed daily data spanning twenty years and covering 17 distinct coffee varieties traded in three of the world’s most important markets: the United States, Germany, and France. The data, drawn from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), was not used in aggregated form. Instead, the researchers disaggregated it at the variety level, allowing for a far more detailed and accurate picture of price dynamics and market integration.

The findings suggest that high-quality coffees, such as mild arabicas, form stronger and more stable price linkages within markets, while lower-quality coffees like robusta exhibit more volatility and divergence. Moreover, risk spillovers are found to be stronger among coffees of similar quality, creating distinct clusters in the price network.

One of the study’s most important insights is the role of the United States as the central node of the global coffee risk network. As the world’s largest importer of coffee, the U.S. absorbs spillovers from European markets, particularly Germany and France. This centrality means that disturbances in European markets can quickly reverberate through the U.S., which then amplifies their impact across the rest of the world.

From a methodological standpoint, the study employed a high-dimensional CoVaR-copula framework, a sophisticated statistical approach that focuses on extreme price movements rather than long-term averages. Unlike traditional cointegration methods, which focus on whether prices move together in the long run, this approach looks at how shocks in one market are transmitted during stress periods to other markets.

To address the challenge of handling a large number of variables, the researchers used high-dimensional VAR (Vector Autoregressive) models combined with an Elastic-Net technique, which helps to reduce overfitting and manage what is known as the “curse of dimensionality.” This combination allowed for the creation of clearer, more precise connectedness networks, showing how risk flows between different coffee varieties and across national markets.

In addition to price data, the study incorporated insights from chemical analyses of coffee. Previous research had identified specific chemical compounds that differentiate varieties and contribute to flavor and aroma profiles. By aligning price data with chemical properties and trading locations, the researchers produced heatmaps and connectedness graphs that reveal how both intrinsic quality and geography drive the clustering of coffee markets.

The results demonstrate that geographical proximity facilitates faster transmission of information and market shocks, while chemical and sensory differences create visible separations within networks. In other words, the global coffee market is not just shaped by supply and demand—it is influenced by the interplay of quality, chemistry, taste, and trading location.

Although the study faced limitations, particularly the inability to analyze coffee futures contracts at the variety level due to insufficient data, it still provides valuable insights into the structure of the global coffee trade. By revealing how clusters form and risks spill over, the research helps explain why certain markets are more vulnerable than others during times of stress.

For policymakers, producers, and importers, these findings carry important implications. Monitoring general coffee price indices is no longer sufficient. Instead, stakeholders must consider differences in quality and geographic positioning when evaluating market risks. With global coffee markets under increasing pressure from climate change, supply chain disruptions, and regulatory frameworks such as the European Union’s deforestation regulation, this research offers a timely tool for risk management and strategic planning.

Ultimately, the study underscores how coffee—often seen as just a daily ritual—sits at the center of a complex economic web. Quality and geography act as the hidden levers of price dynamics, and the United States remains at the core of this network, both shaping and being shaped by the flows of risk. What emerges is a portrait of coffee not simply as a commodity, but as a global force whose market behavior reflects the broader challenges of interconnected economies.

Coffee Prices Surge on Brazil Weather Concerns and Supply Tightness

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Dubai, 23 August, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee futures surged sharply on Friday, reaching multi-month highs as weather concerns in Brazil and tightening global supplies continued to fuel bullish momentum. December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed up +13.30 cents (+3.64%), marking a 3.5-month high, while September ICE robusta (RMU25) gained +108 points (+2.27%), its strongest level in three months. The rally extended a three-week upward trend, with traders reacting to reports of dry conditions and frost damage in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer.

According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais, Brazil’s leading arabica coffee-growing region, recorded no rainfall during the week ending August 16. This lack of precipitation, coupled with recent frost damage, raised concerns over crop yields and pushed prices higher. Additional upward pressure came from the United States, where coffee supplies are tightening as buyers void new Brazilian contracts in response to a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports. With nearly one-third of U.S. coffee imports traditionally sourced from Brazil, the restrictions have intensified market concerns over availability.

Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that July unroasted coffee exports fell by 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons. Exporter group Cecafe confirmed an even steeper decline in green coffee shipments, which dropped 28% in July to 2.4 million bags. Arabica exports fell 21%, robusta plunged 49%, and overall shipments for the January–July period slipped 21% to 22.2 million bags. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags before recovering slightly to 729,606 bags on Friday. Robusta inventories also dropped to a four-week low of 6,642 lots, down from a two-year high of 7,029 lots at the end of July.

On the other hand, progress in Brazil’s harvest is adding a bearish element. Safras & Mercado reported that 99% of the 2025/26 crop was harvested as of August 20, with the robusta harvest completed and 98% of arabica finished. Brazil’s largest cooperative, Cooxupé, announced that its members had completed 86.1% of their harvest by August 15.

Global developments continue to influence sentiment. The International Coffee Organization reported that world coffee exports rose 7.3% in June to 11.69 million bags, although cumulative shipments from October through June were slightly lower at 104.14 million bags. In Vietnam, drought reduced 2023/24 production by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons, the smallest crop in four years, while 2024 exports dropped 17.1%. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has since lowered its 2024/25 production forecast to 26.5 million bags. However, government data showed that exports from January to July 2025 rose 6.9% to 1.05 million metric tons.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects that global coffee production in 2025/26 will rise by 2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags, with robusta output increasing by 7.9% to 81.66 million bags and arabica output slipping 1.7% to 97.02 million bags. Ending stocks are forecast to climb 4.9% to 22.82 million bags. Despite these figures, trader Volcafe projects a widening arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26, compared with 5.5 million in 2024/25, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortages.

Coffee markets are now navigating the opposing forces of immediate weather-driven supply risks and harvest progress in Brazil against longer-term forecasts of record global output, leaving traders alert to further volatility in the weeks ahead.

Coffee Prices Surge on Dry Weather in Brazil and Tighter U.S. Supplies

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Dubai, 21 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices continued their sharp rally this week, reaching multi-month highs as drought in Brazil, tighter U.S. supplies, and falling inventories combined to fuel bullish sentiment in global markets. September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed up +4.05 cents (+1.14%), while September robusta coffee (RMU25) jumped +236 points (+5.35%), marking the strongest levels for arabica in more than two months and for robusta in two and a half months. The upward trend has now extended for over two weeks, signaling growing concerns among traders and roasters alike.

Much of the momentum is driven by weather conditions in Brazil, the world’s largest producer. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-growing state, received no rainfall during the week ending August 16. Dry conditions at this stage of the harvest have spurred funds and speculators to increase their positions in coffee futures. While dryness helps in harvesting ripe cherries, prolonged lack of rain threatens the health of trees and could affect the next cycle’s yield, especially for arabica, which is more sensitive to climatic stress.

At the same time, the United States, one of the biggest coffee importers, is facing its own supply squeeze. Following the imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee exports, American buyers have been avoiding new contracts and seeking loopholes in existing ones to escape the higher levies. Some have even requested extended shipping timelines in hopes that trade restrictions may eventually ease. With about a third of unroasted coffee consumed in the U.S. normally sourced from Brazil, the tariffs have significantly tightened the market.

Export figures from Brazil reinforce the tightening picture. The country’s Trade Ministry reported that unroasted exports in July dropped -20.4% year on year to 161,000 metric tons, while Cecafé, the exporters’ council, confirmed that green coffee exports fell -28% to 2.4 million bags. Within that total, arabica shipments declined -21% and robusta plunged nearly -49%. Overall, Brazil’s coffee exports in July fell to 2.7 million bags, and shipments for the first seven months of the year were down -21% to 22.2 million bags compared to the same period in 2024.

Another layer of support for prices comes from declining inventories on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Arabica stocks dropped to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags last week before inching up slightly, while robusta inventories sank to a three-week low of 6,732 lots, still well below the two-year high reached in late July.

Even as supply pressures mount, Brazil’s harvest progress offers a short-term counterbalance. Cooxupé, the country’s largest cooperative and exporter, announced that its members had harvested 86.1% of their crop by August 15. Independent consultancy Safras & Mercado placed national progress at 94% complete, with nearly all robusta and more than 90% of arabica cherries already picked. This suggests that near-term supply will remain steady, though the longer-term outlook is clouded by weather concerns.

Globally, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that exports in June rose +7.3% year on year to 11.69 million bags, though cumulative shipments for October through June were nearly flat at 104.14 million bags, down -0.2% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, in Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, production in 2023/24 fell -20% to 1.472 million metric tons, the smallest harvest in four years, due to severe drought. Exports for 2024 slipped -17.1% to 1.35 million metric tons, and the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has already cut its production forecast for 2024/25 to 26.5 million bags, down from an earlier estimate of 28 million. Yet, despite these challenges, Vietnam’s exports in the first seven months of 2025 rose +6.9% to 1.05 million metric tons, providing some temporary relief to the international market.

Looking ahead, projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) suggest that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase +2.5% year on year to a record 178.68 million bags. Arabica output is expected to fall -1.7% to 97.02 million bags, while robusta is forecast to rise +7.9% to 81.65 million bags. Brazil is projected to produce 65 million bags (+0.5%), and Vietnam is forecast to reach a four-year high of 31 million bags (+6.9%). Ending stocks are expected to climb by nearly +4.9% to 22.82 million bags. Still, major trader Volcafe has warned of a widening deficit in arabica, projecting a shortfall of -8.5 million bags for 2025/26, compared with -5.5 million bags this year. If accurate, this would mark the fifth consecutive year of arabica deficits, ensuring that upward pressure on prices will likely persist well into next year.

U.S. Roasters Halt Brazilian Coffee Purchases After 50% Tariffs

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Dubai, 20 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – American coffee buyers are pulling back from new deals with Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, after President Donald Trump’s 50% tariff on imports took effect earlier this month.

According to brokers, roasters, and exporters contacted by Bloomberg, U.S. companies are avoiding fresh contracts and looking for ways to adjust existing agreements to escape the higher levies. Some buyers are even requesting delayed shipments in the hope that tariffs might later be eased, Brazil’s exporter group Cecafé reported.

“Deals between the U.S. and Brazil have totally stalled,” said broker Thiago Cazarini. “No one’s really buying anything.”

Brazil supplies roughly one-third of America’s unroasted coffee. The tariff escalation follows Trump’s earlier April announcement of a 10% levy on Brazilian agricultural imports, which surged to 50% on August 6. The trade conflict is intertwined with Trump’s criticism of what he calls the “politically motivated persecution” of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally now facing trial over an alleged coup attempt against current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

For U.S. roasters, the tariffs pose a major challenge. Florida-based Zaza Coffee, which sources about 25% of its beans from Brazil, has 14 to 16 weeks of supply left. “Within this window maybe something can change regarding the tariffs,” said JP Juarez, Zaza’s director of coffee innovation. “But if tariffs remain, we probably won’t buy Brazilian coffee.” The company is exploring alternatives from Central America, Peru, and Mexico.

Still, for many roasters, Brazil’s dominant volumes and bean profiles are nearly irreplaceable. “Roasters have blends they want to keep consistent in any cost environment,” noted Jim Watson, analyst at Rabobank. Starbucks, for example, uses only Brazilian arabica in its blends.

With Brazil sidelined, U.S. buyers are eyeing other origins. Colombia, Vietnam, and Honduras are the next biggest suppliers, according to the Department of Agriculture. Vietnam’s robusta beans—cheaper and mostly used in instant coffee—could see imports rise to “historical highs,” according to Laleska Moda of Hedgepoint Global Markets, since tariffs there are only 20%. Indonesia and Uganda could also gain market share with lower tariffs.

Yet shortages loom. Honduran coffee is already trading 30 to 40 cents per pound above futures prices, while Colombian exporters are holding back, waiting for possible market surges, said Tomas Araujo of StoneX.

Some roasters are turning to futures markets to hedge costs. Café Aroma, a Cuban-style brand, is shifting imports toward countries with more predictable tariffs, said vice president Bernadette Gerrity.

If U.S. demand for Brazilian beans declines, those supplies will likely flow to Europe, where buyers are seeking traceable coffee to comply with new EU deforestation rules. More beans may also head to China’s expanding market, leaving U.S. roasters exposed to a more expensive supply chain, said Dave Behrends of Sucafina SA.

For some companies, the immediate hit is already being felt. Gregorys Coffee in New York received its last Brazilian shipment on August 2, just before the tariffs took effect, securing stock until mid-November. But its next shipment is already locked in at the higher rate. “Absorbing a 10% tariff is nearly impossible for a small business to do on its own,” said Daria Whalen of San Francisco’s Ritual Coffee Roasters. “Fifty percent feels staggering and insurmountable.”

Geadas atingem cafezais no Cerrado Mineiro e preocupam produtores

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São Paulo, 18 de agosto de 2025 (Qahwa World) – Cafezais da região de Patrocínio, considerado o maior município produtor de café do mundo, foram atingidos por geadas na madrugada de segunda-feira, segundo informou à Reuters o presidente da Federação dos Cafeicultores do Cerrado, Gláucio de Castro. O fenômeno climático pode ter afetado os botões florais destinados à próxima safra.

Além de Patrocínio, municípios vizinhos como Araxá e Indianópolis, também localizados no Cerrado Mineiro – região estratégica para a produção de café arábica do Brasil – registraram geadas. Contudo, Castro ressaltou que a real dimensão dos danos só poderá ser confirmada após o período de floradas.

Impacto preliminar

De acordo com a avaliação inicial, as geadas foram classificadas como “de capote”, atingindo principalmente a parte superior das plantas. Embora menos intensas e abrangentes que as ocorridas em 2021, quando a safra seguinte foi severamente comprometida, elas ainda podem reduzir o potencial produtivo.

“As geadas dessa vez foram mais de capote, pegaram mais o lado superior da planta. Mas, de qualquer forma, afeta”, afirmou Castro.

O dirigente destacou que os botões florais atingidos são sensíveis e poderiam florescer entre setembro e outubro, com a chegada das chuvas. No entanto, os efeitos do frio podem se revelar apenas mais adiante. “Essa queima dos botões florais é meio silenciosa, só vamos ver para frente se vai abrir flor”, explicou.

Levantamentos em andamento

As cooperativas do Cerrado Mineiro estão realizando levantamentos sobre eventuais perdas. Segundo relatos preliminares de produtores, os danos representariam cerca de um terço do impacto causado em 2021. Entretanto, Castro alertou que é cedo para estimar números com precisão.

Em casos de geadas mais intensas, quando ambos os lados da planta são comprometidos, os agricultores recorrem ao “esqueletamento” – poda drástica que implica na perda total da produção da safra seguinte.

Reflexo no mercado

Na segunda-feira, o café arábica negociado na bolsa ICE encerrou em alta de quase 4%, impulsionado pelos relatos de geadas no Brasil, maior produtor e exportador global da commodity. Porém, nesta terça-feira, os preços recuaram, devolvendo parte dos ganhos.

Situação em outras regiões

Cooperativas do Sul de Minas, como a Cooxupé (Guaxupé) e a Minasul (Varginha), informaram que as geadas se concentraram em áreas de baixada, sem maiores danos às lavouras.

Segundo a consultoria StoneX, o Sul de Minas deverá produzir pouco mais de 15 milhões de sacas de 60 kg em 2025, enquanto o Cerrado Mineiro deve registrar 6,2 milhões de sacas.

Vietnam Coffee Prices Hit Historic High at 117,500 VND/kg

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Dubai, 18 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices in Vietnam continued their sharp upward trend on August 17, climbing by 2,500–2,800 VND per kilogram across major producing regions. Average domestic purchase prices now range between 116,800 and 117,500 VND/kg, marking one of the highest levels recorded this season, according to Báo Gia Lai.

Regional Price Updates

  • Gia Lai Province: Prices rose by 2,600 VND/kg to reach 117,200 VND/kg.

  • Lam Dong Province: Prices increased by 2,800 VND/kg, bringing the average to 116,800 VND/kg.

  • Dak Nong Province: Prices advanced by 2,500 VND/kg to 117,500 VND/kg, the highest among major regions.

  • Dak Lak Province: Coffee traded at 117,300 VND/kg, up 2,500 VND/kg from the previous day.

Drivers Behind the Price Rally

Economic experts attribute the surge primarily to dwindling domestic supplies. After months of intensive harvesting, coffee stocks held by farming households have fallen to low levels. Meanwhile, exporters are aggressively buying to fulfill international contracts, intensifying pressure on local prices.

Global Coffee Market Trends

Vietnam’s domestic rally comes against the backdrop of strong movements in global futures markets:

  • Robusta futures (November 2025 delivery) rose by USD 506 per tonne, equivalent to a 14.2% weekly gain.

  • Arabica futures (December 2025 delivery) surged by USD 340 per tonne to USD 7,370 per tonne (about 192,100 VND/kg), a 10.5% rise compared with the previous week.

This follows four consecutive sessions of triple-digit increases in Robusta futures, underscoring heightened volatility driven by tight supply concerns worldwide.

Context and Outlook

The latest jump builds on an already rapid price escalation earlier this month, when domestic coffee crossed the 107,000 VND/kg threshold for the first time. Analysts warn that continued low inventories combined with strong export demand could sustain upward pressure in the coming weeks.

Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer, plays a critical role in global supply. Any prolonged imbalance in its domestic market may have ripple effects internationally, particularly in Europe and Asia where Robusta beans are heavily used in instant coffee and espresso blends.

Coffee Prices Rise on Light Frost in Brazil and Sharp Decline in Robusta Exports

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Dubai, 13 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee futures gained on Wednesday, supported by reports of light frost in Brazil’s Cerrado Mineiro region and a significant drop in the country’s robusta exports.

September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed up +4.45 cents (+1.41%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) surged +206 points (+5.53%) to reach a two-month high.

Weather Impact

Light frost earlier this week in Cerrado Mineiro, one of Brazil’s key arabica-producing areas, prompted concerns in the market, although initial assessments suggest damage is minimal. Above-average rainfall in Minas Gerais last week (4.8 mm, or 109% of the historical average) eased dryness concerns, potentially limiting upward price pressure.

Exports Driving the Rally

According to exporter group Cecafe, Brazil’s July green coffee exports fell -28% year-on-year to 2.4 million bags. Arabica exports declined -21%, while robusta exports plunged -49%. Total July coffee exports dropped -28% to 2.7 million bags, with January–July shipments down -21% to 22.2 million bags.

The sharp decline in robusta exports, combined with short-covering after previous market losses, was a major factor behind robusta’s price surge. Brazil’s July unroasted coffee exports also fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 metric tons.

Falling Inventories

ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 736,411 bags on Wednesday. Robusta inventories dropped to a two-week low of 6,928 lots, slightly below the one-year high recorded at the end of July.

Harvest Progress

Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 94% complete as of August 6, ahead of last year’s 92% at the same time. Robusta harvest is 99% finished, while arabica is 91% complete. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and exporter, said its members had harvested 80.4% of their crop by August 8.

Trade Policy Concerns

Market attention is also on U.S. trade policy, as President Trump has yet to exempt coffee from a proposed 50% tariff on Brazilian exports, a move that could impact sales to the U.S. and increase domestic inventories in Brazil.

Global Supply Picture

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported global coffee exports in June rose +7.3% y/y to 11.69 million bags, though cumulative October–June exports slipped -0.2% to 104.14 million bags.

The USDA’s June forecast projects global 2025/26 coffee production will rise +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with arabica output down -1.7% to 97.02 million bags and robusta production up +7.9% to 81.66 million bags. Ending stocks are expected to increase +4.9% to 22.82 million bags.

Vietnam’s Role in Robusta Supply

Vietnam’s 2023/24 coffee production fell -20% y/y to 1.472 million metric tons due to drought—the smallest crop in four years. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has lowered its 2024/25 production forecast to 26.5 million bags, down from December’s estimate of 28 million bags. However, Vietnam’s Jan–July 2025 exports rose +6.9% y/y to 1.05 million metric tons.

Deficit Outlook

Despite higher overall global production, Volcafe forecasts a -8.5 million bag global arabica deficit in 2025/26—wider than the -5.5 million bag shortfall in 2024/25—marking the fifth consecutive year of deficits.

Cold Snap Threatens Brazil’s 2026 Coffee Crop During Early Flowering

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai, 13 August 2025- (Qahwa World) – As Brazil’s 2025 harvest concludes, attention is already turning to the next season — and early signs show potential trouble ahead. Early flowering has begun in several major coffee-growing regions, a stage when trees are especially vulnerable to weather changes. Recent cold temperatures in Minas Gerais and São Paulo have sparked frost concerns, prompting urgent on-the-ground assessments.

Flowering is underway in:

  • South of Minas – a high-altitude sub-region in Minas Gerais with dense specialty Arabica plantings, currently slightly behind in development.

  • Cerrado Mineiro – a designated coffee-producing area recognized for its dry harvest season and consistent quality.

  • São Paulo – including Mogiana, known for its fertile volcanic soils.

Over the past 24 hours, temperatures have fallen sharply. Patrocínio, in Cerrado Mineiro, recorded an early morning low of 1.9°C, with light frost confirmed in parts of the region. Initial reports point to minor visible damage so far. Weather forecasts indicate lows below 10°C across much of Minas Gerais through August 15, with frost risk at 50–70% in higher-altitude zones.

Potential Impact on Brazil’s Supply
While current assessments suggest limited frost damage, agricultural analysts caution that even without visible frost, low temperatures during flowering can reduce fruit set and lower yields. This could tighten Brazil’s 2026 coffee supply — a concern magnified by the recently imposed 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian green coffee. Any further cold fronts in the coming days could escalate risks and push global coffee prices higher.

The next week will be critical in determining how weather conditions will shape Brazil’s production outlook for the year ahead.