Tag: Coffee Prices

Coffee Prices Surge on Dry Weather in Brazil and Tighter U.S. Supplies

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Dubai, 21 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices continued their sharp rally this week, reaching multi-month highs as drought in Brazil, tighter U.S. supplies, and falling inventories combined to fuel bullish sentiment in global markets. September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed up +4.05 cents (+1.14%), while September robusta coffee (RMU25) jumped +236 points (+5.35%), marking the strongest levels for arabica in more than two months and for robusta in two and a half months. The upward trend has now extended for over two weeks, signaling growing concerns among traders and roasters alike.

Much of the momentum is driven by weather conditions in Brazil, the world’s largest producer. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-growing state, received no rainfall during the week ending August 16. Dry conditions at this stage of the harvest have spurred funds and speculators to increase their positions in coffee futures. While dryness helps in harvesting ripe cherries, prolonged lack of rain threatens the health of trees and could affect the next cycle’s yield, especially for arabica, which is more sensitive to climatic stress.

At the same time, the United States, one of the biggest coffee importers, is facing its own supply squeeze. Following the imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee exports, American buyers have been avoiding new contracts and seeking loopholes in existing ones to escape the higher levies. Some have even requested extended shipping timelines in hopes that trade restrictions may eventually ease. With about a third of unroasted coffee consumed in the U.S. normally sourced from Brazil, the tariffs have significantly tightened the market.

Export figures from Brazil reinforce the tightening picture. The country’s Trade Ministry reported that unroasted exports in July dropped -20.4% year on year to 161,000 metric tons, while Cecafé, the exporters’ council, confirmed that green coffee exports fell -28% to 2.4 million bags. Within that total, arabica shipments declined -21% and robusta plunged nearly -49%. Overall, Brazil’s coffee exports in July fell to 2.7 million bags, and shipments for the first seven months of the year were down -21% to 22.2 million bags compared to the same period in 2024.

Another layer of support for prices comes from declining inventories on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Arabica stocks dropped to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags last week before inching up slightly, while robusta inventories sank to a three-week low of 6,732 lots, still well below the two-year high reached in late July.

Even as supply pressures mount, Brazil’s harvest progress offers a short-term counterbalance. Cooxupé, the country’s largest cooperative and exporter, announced that its members had harvested 86.1% of their crop by August 15. Independent consultancy Safras & Mercado placed national progress at 94% complete, with nearly all robusta and more than 90% of arabica cherries already picked. This suggests that near-term supply will remain steady, though the longer-term outlook is clouded by weather concerns.

Globally, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that exports in June rose +7.3% year on year to 11.69 million bags, though cumulative shipments for October through June were nearly flat at 104.14 million bags, down -0.2% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, in Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, production in 2023/24 fell -20% to 1.472 million metric tons, the smallest harvest in four years, due to severe drought. Exports for 2024 slipped -17.1% to 1.35 million metric tons, and the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has already cut its production forecast for 2024/25 to 26.5 million bags, down from an earlier estimate of 28 million. Yet, despite these challenges, Vietnam’s exports in the first seven months of 2025 rose +6.9% to 1.05 million metric tons, providing some temporary relief to the international market.

Looking ahead, projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) suggest that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase +2.5% year on year to a record 178.68 million bags. Arabica output is expected to fall -1.7% to 97.02 million bags, while robusta is forecast to rise +7.9% to 81.65 million bags. Brazil is projected to produce 65 million bags (+0.5%), and Vietnam is forecast to reach a four-year high of 31 million bags (+6.9%). Ending stocks are expected to climb by nearly +4.9% to 22.82 million bags. Still, major trader Volcafe has warned of a widening deficit in arabica, projecting a shortfall of -8.5 million bags for 2025/26, compared with -5.5 million bags this year. If accurate, this would mark the fifth consecutive year of arabica deficits, ensuring that upward pressure on prices will likely persist well into next year.

U.S. Roasters Halt Brazilian Coffee Purchases After 50% Tariffs

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Dubai, 20 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – American coffee buyers are pulling back from new deals with Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, after President Donald Trump’s 50% tariff on imports took effect earlier this month.

According to brokers, roasters, and exporters contacted by Bloomberg, U.S. companies are avoiding fresh contracts and looking for ways to adjust existing agreements to escape the higher levies. Some buyers are even requesting delayed shipments in the hope that tariffs might later be eased, Brazil’s exporter group Cecafé reported.

“Deals between the U.S. and Brazil have totally stalled,” said broker Thiago Cazarini. “No one’s really buying anything.”

Brazil supplies roughly one-third of America’s unroasted coffee. The tariff escalation follows Trump’s earlier April announcement of a 10% levy on Brazilian agricultural imports, which surged to 50% on August 6. The trade conflict is intertwined with Trump’s criticism of what he calls the “politically motivated persecution” of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally now facing trial over an alleged coup attempt against current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

For U.S. roasters, the tariffs pose a major challenge. Florida-based Zaza Coffee, which sources about 25% of its beans from Brazil, has 14 to 16 weeks of supply left. “Within this window maybe something can change regarding the tariffs,” said JP Juarez, Zaza’s director of coffee innovation. “But if tariffs remain, we probably won’t buy Brazilian coffee.” The company is exploring alternatives from Central America, Peru, and Mexico.

Still, for many roasters, Brazil’s dominant volumes and bean profiles are nearly irreplaceable. “Roasters have blends they want to keep consistent in any cost environment,” noted Jim Watson, analyst at Rabobank. Starbucks, for example, uses only Brazilian arabica in its blends.

With Brazil sidelined, U.S. buyers are eyeing other origins. Colombia, Vietnam, and Honduras are the next biggest suppliers, according to the Department of Agriculture. Vietnam’s robusta beans—cheaper and mostly used in instant coffee—could see imports rise to “historical highs,” according to Laleska Moda of Hedgepoint Global Markets, since tariffs there are only 20%. Indonesia and Uganda could also gain market share with lower tariffs.

Yet shortages loom. Honduran coffee is already trading 30 to 40 cents per pound above futures prices, while Colombian exporters are holding back, waiting for possible market surges, said Tomas Araujo of StoneX.

Some roasters are turning to futures markets to hedge costs. Café Aroma, a Cuban-style brand, is shifting imports toward countries with more predictable tariffs, said vice president Bernadette Gerrity.

If U.S. demand for Brazilian beans declines, those supplies will likely flow to Europe, where buyers are seeking traceable coffee to comply with new EU deforestation rules. More beans may also head to China’s expanding market, leaving U.S. roasters exposed to a more expensive supply chain, said Dave Behrends of Sucafina SA.

For some companies, the immediate hit is already being felt. Gregorys Coffee in New York received its last Brazilian shipment on August 2, just before the tariffs took effect, securing stock until mid-November. But its next shipment is already locked in at the higher rate. “Absorbing a 10% tariff is nearly impossible for a small business to do on its own,” said Daria Whalen of San Francisco’s Ritual Coffee Roasters. “Fifty percent feels staggering and insurmountable.”

Geadas atingem cafezais no Cerrado Mineiro e preocupam produtores

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São Paulo, 18 de agosto de 2025 (Qahwa World) – Cafezais da região de Patrocínio, considerado o maior município produtor de café do mundo, foram atingidos por geadas na madrugada de segunda-feira, segundo informou à Reuters o presidente da Federação dos Cafeicultores do Cerrado, Gláucio de Castro. O fenômeno climático pode ter afetado os botões florais destinados à próxima safra.

Além de Patrocínio, municípios vizinhos como Araxá e Indianópolis, também localizados no Cerrado Mineiro – região estratégica para a produção de café arábica do Brasil – registraram geadas. Contudo, Castro ressaltou que a real dimensão dos danos só poderá ser confirmada após o período de floradas.

Impacto preliminar

De acordo com a avaliação inicial, as geadas foram classificadas como “de capote”, atingindo principalmente a parte superior das plantas. Embora menos intensas e abrangentes que as ocorridas em 2021, quando a safra seguinte foi severamente comprometida, elas ainda podem reduzir o potencial produtivo.

“As geadas dessa vez foram mais de capote, pegaram mais o lado superior da planta. Mas, de qualquer forma, afeta”, afirmou Castro.

O dirigente destacou que os botões florais atingidos são sensíveis e poderiam florescer entre setembro e outubro, com a chegada das chuvas. No entanto, os efeitos do frio podem se revelar apenas mais adiante. “Essa queima dos botões florais é meio silenciosa, só vamos ver para frente se vai abrir flor”, explicou.

Levantamentos em andamento

As cooperativas do Cerrado Mineiro estão realizando levantamentos sobre eventuais perdas. Segundo relatos preliminares de produtores, os danos representariam cerca de um terço do impacto causado em 2021. Entretanto, Castro alertou que é cedo para estimar números com precisão.

Em casos de geadas mais intensas, quando ambos os lados da planta são comprometidos, os agricultores recorrem ao “esqueletamento” – poda drástica que implica na perda total da produção da safra seguinte.

Reflexo no mercado

Na segunda-feira, o café arábica negociado na bolsa ICE encerrou em alta de quase 4%, impulsionado pelos relatos de geadas no Brasil, maior produtor e exportador global da commodity. Porém, nesta terça-feira, os preços recuaram, devolvendo parte dos ganhos.

Situação em outras regiões

Cooperativas do Sul de Minas, como a Cooxupé (Guaxupé) e a Minasul (Varginha), informaram que as geadas se concentraram em áreas de baixada, sem maiores danos às lavouras.

Segundo a consultoria StoneX, o Sul de Minas deverá produzir pouco mais de 15 milhões de sacas de 60 kg em 2025, enquanto o Cerrado Mineiro deve registrar 6,2 milhões de sacas.

Vietnam Coffee Prices Hit Historic High at 117,500 VND/kg

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Dubai, 18 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices in Vietnam continued their sharp upward trend on August 17, climbing by 2,500–2,800 VND per kilogram across major producing regions. Average domestic purchase prices now range between 116,800 and 117,500 VND/kg, marking one of the highest levels recorded this season, according to Báo Gia Lai.

Regional Price Updates

  • Gia Lai Province: Prices rose by 2,600 VND/kg to reach 117,200 VND/kg.

  • Lam Dong Province: Prices increased by 2,800 VND/kg, bringing the average to 116,800 VND/kg.

  • Dak Nong Province: Prices advanced by 2,500 VND/kg to 117,500 VND/kg, the highest among major regions.

  • Dak Lak Province: Coffee traded at 117,300 VND/kg, up 2,500 VND/kg from the previous day.

Drivers Behind the Price Rally

Economic experts attribute the surge primarily to dwindling domestic supplies. After months of intensive harvesting, coffee stocks held by farming households have fallen to low levels. Meanwhile, exporters are aggressively buying to fulfill international contracts, intensifying pressure on local prices.

Global Coffee Market Trends

Vietnam’s domestic rally comes against the backdrop of strong movements in global futures markets:

  • Robusta futures (November 2025 delivery) rose by USD 506 per tonne, equivalent to a 14.2% weekly gain.

  • Arabica futures (December 2025 delivery) surged by USD 340 per tonne to USD 7,370 per tonne (about 192,100 VND/kg), a 10.5% rise compared with the previous week.

This follows four consecutive sessions of triple-digit increases in Robusta futures, underscoring heightened volatility driven by tight supply concerns worldwide.

Context and Outlook

The latest jump builds on an already rapid price escalation earlier this month, when domestic coffee crossed the 107,000 VND/kg threshold for the first time. Analysts warn that continued low inventories combined with strong export demand could sustain upward pressure in the coming weeks.

Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer, plays a critical role in global supply. Any prolonged imbalance in its domestic market may have ripple effects internationally, particularly in Europe and Asia where Robusta beans are heavily used in instant coffee and espresso blends.

Coffee Prices Rise on Light Frost in Brazil and Sharp Decline in Robusta Exports

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Dubai, 13 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee futures gained on Wednesday, supported by reports of light frost in Brazil’s Cerrado Mineiro region and a significant drop in the country’s robusta exports.

September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed up +4.45 cents (+1.41%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) surged +206 points (+5.53%) to reach a two-month high.

Weather Impact

Light frost earlier this week in Cerrado Mineiro, one of Brazil’s key arabica-producing areas, prompted concerns in the market, although initial assessments suggest damage is minimal. Above-average rainfall in Minas Gerais last week (4.8 mm, or 109% of the historical average) eased dryness concerns, potentially limiting upward price pressure.

Exports Driving the Rally

According to exporter group Cecafe, Brazil’s July green coffee exports fell -28% year-on-year to 2.4 million bags. Arabica exports declined -21%, while robusta exports plunged -49%. Total July coffee exports dropped -28% to 2.7 million bags, with January–July shipments down -21% to 22.2 million bags.

The sharp decline in robusta exports, combined with short-covering after previous market losses, was a major factor behind robusta’s price surge. Brazil’s July unroasted coffee exports also fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 metric tons.

Falling Inventories

ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 736,411 bags on Wednesday. Robusta inventories dropped to a two-week low of 6,928 lots, slightly below the one-year high recorded at the end of July.

Harvest Progress

Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 94% complete as of August 6, ahead of last year’s 92% at the same time. Robusta harvest is 99% finished, while arabica is 91% complete. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and exporter, said its members had harvested 80.4% of their crop by August 8.

Trade Policy Concerns

Market attention is also on U.S. trade policy, as President Trump has yet to exempt coffee from a proposed 50% tariff on Brazilian exports, a move that could impact sales to the U.S. and increase domestic inventories in Brazil.

Global Supply Picture

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported global coffee exports in June rose +7.3% y/y to 11.69 million bags, though cumulative October–June exports slipped -0.2% to 104.14 million bags.

The USDA’s June forecast projects global 2025/26 coffee production will rise +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with arabica output down -1.7% to 97.02 million bags and robusta production up +7.9% to 81.66 million bags. Ending stocks are expected to increase +4.9% to 22.82 million bags.

Vietnam’s Role in Robusta Supply

Vietnam’s 2023/24 coffee production fell -20% y/y to 1.472 million metric tons due to drought—the smallest crop in four years. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has lowered its 2024/25 production forecast to 26.5 million bags, down from December’s estimate of 28 million bags. However, Vietnam’s Jan–July 2025 exports rose +6.9% y/y to 1.05 million metric tons.

Deficit Outlook

Despite higher overall global production, Volcafe forecasts a -8.5 million bag global arabica deficit in 2025/26—wider than the -5.5 million bag shortfall in 2024/25—marking the fifth consecutive year of deficits.

Cold Snap Threatens Brazil’s 2026 Coffee Crop During Early Flowering

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Dubai, 13 August 2025- (Qahwa World) – As Brazil’s 2025 harvest concludes, attention is already turning to the next season — and early signs show potential trouble ahead. Early flowering has begun in several major coffee-growing regions, a stage when trees are especially vulnerable to weather changes. Recent cold temperatures in Minas Gerais and São Paulo have sparked frost concerns, prompting urgent on-the-ground assessments.

Flowering is underway in:

  • South of Minas – a high-altitude sub-region in Minas Gerais with dense specialty Arabica plantings, currently slightly behind in development.

  • Cerrado Mineiro – a designated coffee-producing area recognized for its dry harvest season and consistent quality.

  • São Paulo – including Mogiana, known for its fertile volcanic soils.

Over the past 24 hours, temperatures have fallen sharply. Patrocínio, in Cerrado Mineiro, recorded an early morning low of 1.9°C, with light frost confirmed in parts of the region. Initial reports point to minor visible damage so far. Weather forecasts indicate lows below 10°C across much of Minas Gerais through August 15, with frost risk at 50–70% in higher-altitude zones.

Potential Impact on Brazil’s Supply
While current assessments suggest limited frost damage, agricultural analysts caution that even without visible frost, low temperatures during flowering can reduce fruit set and lower yields. This could tighten Brazil’s 2026 coffee supply — a concern magnified by the recently imposed 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian green coffee. Any further cold fronts in the coming days could escalate risks and push global coffee prices higher.

The next week will be critical in determining how weather conditions will shape Brazil’s production outlook for the year ahead.

Tight Supplies Push Coffee Prices to Multi-Week Highs in September 2025

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Dubai, 12 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – The global coffee market saw a sharp rally at the start of August, with September Arabica futures (KCU25) rising by 14.00 cents (+4.53%) to hit a seven-week high, while September Robusta futures (RMU25) climbed 188 points (+5.28%) to a four-week high. The surge was fueled by clear signs of tightening supply in the world’s largest producing countries, driven by lower exports and falling inventories.

Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that the country’s exports of unroasted coffee in July dropped 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons. At the same time, ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a 14.5-month low of 738,095 bags, while Robusta stocks declined to a two-week low of 6,981 lots.

Markets are closely watching the United States’ stance on import tariffs, as President Trump has yet to announce an exemption for coffee from the 50% import duty on Brazilian exports — a move that could impact U.S. sales and boost domestic inventories in Brazil.

In weather developments, Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica-growing region, recorded 4.8 mm of rainfall during the week ending 9 August, amounting to 109% of the historical average, easing drought concerns. Harvest progress remains swift, with Safras & Mercado estimating that 94% of the 2025/2026 crop had been completed as of 6 August (99% for Robusta and 91% for Arabica). Cooxupé, the country’s largest coffee cooperative and exporter, reported its members had harvested 74% of their crop by 1 August.

Globally, the International Coffee Organization’s monthly report showed that June exports rose 7.3% year-on-year to 11.69 million bags, while cumulative exports from October to June slipped 0.2%.

In recent months, prices have faced downward pressure from expectations of abundant supply. In June, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast Brazil’s 2025/2026 coffee production at 65 million bags (+0.5%), and Vietnam’s output at 31 million bags (+6.9%, the highest in four years). The USDA also projected record global output of 178.68 million bags (+2.5%), with Arabica production down 1.7% and Robusta production up 7.9%. Ending stocks are expected to rise 4.9% to 22.82 million bags.

Brazil’s Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafe) reported that June green coffee exports fell 31% year-on-year to 2.3 million bags, with Arabica shipments down 27% and Robusta down 42%. In Vietnam, 2023/2024 production dropped 20% year-on-year due to drought, hitting a four-year low, while exports from January to July 2025 rose 6.9% to 1.05 million metric tons.

Volcafe projects that the global Arabica market will post a deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025/2026, compared to a 5.5 million-bag deficit in 2024/2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortfall.