Tag: Coffee Prices

Coffee Prices in the United States Reach Their Highest Levels in Decades

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Coffee has become significantly more expensive across the United States, even after the recent removal of tariffs on imported beans. Shoppers continue to encounter elevated prices in supermarkets and cafés, raising questions about the reasons behind this sustained increase.

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the average retail price of roasted coffee rose from $6.47 to $9.14 per pound in the 12 months leading up to September, an increase of roughly 41%. The nearly $3 jump is far steeper than the typical price fluctuations seen during volatile market periods, making the rise particularly notable to consumers.

The impact is evident on store shelves. A TikTok video posted in August drew attention to the rising cost of large containers of Maxwell House coffee at Walmart stores, where a 38.2-ounce tub reached $21.44 after nearly doubling in price within a year. The post struck a chord with many viewers who shared similar experiences with rising grocery bills.

Other major brands, such as Nespresso and Folgers, have also raised prices over the past year. Café prices have continued in the same direction: according to data tracked by the restaurant-software company Toast, the average price of a regular cup of coffee increased from $3.46 to $3.57 in the year ending October 2025.

Industry analysts describe this period as one of the most pronounced and sustained increases in coffee prices since the early 1980s, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics began monitoring retail coffee trends. Several major factors lie behind the surge:

• Weather-related disruptions in 2024, including drought and heavy rainfall in key producing regions such as Brazil and Vietnam, significantly affected yields.

• Coffee futures climbed sharply, rising from around $2 per pound in May 2024 to approximately $4 in April 2025, increasing the cost burden on importers and roasters.

• Tariffs introduced by the U.S. government in April 2025 added further pressure, with 10% duties placed on imports from several Latin American countries, about 20% on Asian suppliers, and a steep 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee.

During the period in which tariffs were applied, average retail prices rose by roughly 21%. In mid-November, the U.S. administration began rolling back these trade measures. Duties were removed for nearly all producing countries, and the remaining 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee was lifted shortly afterward, effectively ending the tariff structure for most major exporters.

Experts expect that it will take time for changes in import and wholesale prices to filter through to retail shelves, since consumer pricing tends to lag behind market adjustments. Still, the removal of tariffs is broadly seen as a step toward easing cost pressures in the months ahead.

Coffee Prices End the Week Higher as the Brazilian Real Strengthens

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March arabica coffee (KCH26) finished Friday’s session up by +1.50 (+0.40%), while January ICE robusta (RMF26) added +26 (+0.57%).

Coffee futures reached their highest levels in a week on Friday, supported by a stronger Brazilian real. As the real (^USDBRL) advanced to a one-week peak against the US dollar, Brazilian growers were less inclined to sell, prompting short covering in the market.

Weather concerns continue to contribute to upward pressure on prices. Arabica markets are receiving support from ongoing dryness in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais—Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region—recorded 26.4 mm of rainfall in the week ending November 21, representing just 49% of the long-term average. Robusta prices are also firm as forecasts predict heavy rains across Dak Lak in Vietnam, the country’s key coffee-growing province, which are expected to further postpone the current harvest.

Falling ICE coffee stockpiles remain a bullish factor. US tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports have sharply reduced inventories. Arabica stocks monitored by ICE dropped to 398,645 bags last Thursday, the lowest level in 1.75 years, while robusta inventories hit a 6.5-month low of 4,530 lots on Friday. American importers have canceled new orders from Brazil due to tariff pressures, tightening domestic supply. Between August and October—after the tariffs were introduced—US purchases of Brazilian coffee fell by 52% year-on-year to 983,970 bags. Roughly one-third of the coffee imported unroasted into the US typically originates from Brazil.

Last Friday, arabica futures slumped to a 7-week low after President Trump signed an executive order late Thursday removing tariff restrictions on Brazilian food goods, including the 40% levy previously applied to Brazilian coffee.

On the bearish side, StoneX projected last Wednesday that Brazil could produce 70.7 million bags of coffee in the 2026/27 marketing year, including 47.2 million bags of arabica—a 29% increase from the previous year.

Robusta markets also face pressure from expanding supply out of Vietnam. Data from the Vietnam National Statistics Office on November 6 showed that coffee exports for January–October 2025 rose by 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), reaching a four-year high. In addition, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) stated on October 24 that, provided weather conditions remain favorable, the country’s 2025/26 crop could exceed last year’s output by 10%. Vietnam remains the world’s largest producer of robusta.

Signs of tightening global supply continue to underpin prices. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the ongoing marketing year (October–September) slipped by 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.

Further support emerged after Brazil’s crop agency Conab reduced its 2025 arabica production estimate on September 4. The new estimate stands at 35.2 million bags, down 4.9% from the May forecast of 37.0 million bags. Conab also revised the country’s total 2025 coffee crop downward to 55.2 million bags, compared with the earlier estimate of 55.7 million bags.

According to the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) outlook released on June 25, global coffee production for 2025/26 is expected to rise by 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.68 million bags. The report anticipates arabica production will fall by 1.7% to 97.022 million bags, while robusta output will rise 7.9% to 81.658 million bags. FAS also forecasts Brazil’s 2025/26 crop increasing by 0.5% to 65 million bags and Vietnam’s output jumping 6.9% to 31 million bags, marking a four-year high. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to grow by 4.9% to 22.819 million bags, up from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25.

Coffee Prices Continue Rising Despite Tariff Cuts

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The global coffee market is entering a protracted period of rising prices, and even the easing of US tariffs has failed to change the trajectory of rapid price growth. In recent months, Arabica coffee has reached historic highs, and retail prices are only just beginning to reflect this jump. Experts warn that a reduction in the drink’s cost should not be expected in the foreseeable future, as supply chains and price dynamics continue to exert pressure on producers and sellers.

The global coffee market is entering a protracted period of rising prices, and even the easing of US tariffs has failed to change the trajectory of rapid price growth. In recent months, Arabica coffee has reached historic highs, and retail prices are only just beginning to reflect this jump. Experts warn that a reduction in the drink’s cost should not be expected in the foreseeable future, as supply chains and price dynamics continue to exert pressure on producers and sellers.

Cristina Scocchia, CEO of Illycaffe, announced that prices will increase again in January—the third such increase this year. She stated that the current rise in green bean costs remains “unhealthy,” and the company can no longer compensate for the increased expenses. Scocchia emphasized that the price increase will affect all countries and all sales channels. She attributes the sharp rise in Arabica prices primarily to speculation rather than global supply disruptions, although weak harvests in several countries also affect the market. (Note: I cannot confirm the accuracy of the company’s forecasts.)

Following the expansion of tariff concessions by US President Donald Trump for Brazilian agricultural products, Arabica and Robusta futures dropped by a few percent, but this effect proved temporary. Prices remained at abnormally high levels, underscoring the resilience of the long-term upward trend. The historical jump witnessed from 2023–2024—with Arabica costs increasing by almost 190% and Robusta by more than 260%—has not yet been fully reflected in retail. According to Carlos Mera, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research at Rabobank, the lag between exchange dynamics and store prices can range from several months to a year, so consumers should prepare for further price increases.

Despite the drop in futures and the easing of tariffs, producers continue to expect market growth and stable demand. According to Illycaffe’s long-term forecast, the cost of green Arabica will only enter a more stable range—remaining within $2.80–$3.00 per pound—in the second half of 2026. This indicates that the era of low coffee prices has effectively concluded, and the influence of speculative factors, climate risks, and trade policy will continue to hold the market in a high-cost zone.

Collectively, these factors form a strong expectation of further price increases for the end consumer. Even with sustained demand and the gradual adaptation of the market to new conditions, experts agree that a return to previous prices in the coming years is unlikely.

Global Coffee Prices Jump Amid Supply Concerns

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Prices for coffee futures saw a sharp increase today, driven by worries over how weather conditions might impact harvests in major producing nations, alongside notable drops in monitored exchange inventories.

Prices for both arabica and robusta coffee are significantly higher as adverse weather bolsters concerns over global coffee crops. Arabica coffee has found support due to dryness concerns in Brazil. Specifically, meteorology reports indicated that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 49% of its historical average rainfall during the week ended November 21st, fueling concerns about the current crop. Robusta coffee is climbing today on forecasts of heavy showers in Vietnam’s Dak Lak province, the country’s biggest coffee-growing region. These heavy rains are expected to further delay the harvest, tightening short-term supply expectations.

Shrinking inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are also supportive of prices. US trade actions concerning Brazilian coffee imports have reportedly caused a substantial reduction in US exchange stockpiles. ICE-monitored arabica stocks fell to a 1.75-year low last week, and ICE robusta inventories hit a 4.5-month low today. American buyers avoided new contracts for Brazilian coffee purchases due to the tariffs, thereby tightening US supplies, as about a third of America’s unroasted coffee comes from Brazil. US purchases of Brazilian coffee during the period when tariffs were effective dropped by 52% from the same period last year.

Last Friday, arabica coffee had briefly tumbled to a seven-week low after an executive order was signed late last week, exempting Brazilian food products, including coffee, from the 40% tariff. In a potentially bearish factor, one major commodity consultancy forecast that Brazil will produce 70.7 million bags of coffee in the new 2026/27 marketing year, including 47.2 million bags of arabica, a significant year-over-year increase. Increased Vietnamese coffee supplies are also bearish for prices. Recent statistics show Vietnam’s coffee exports rose by 13.4% year-over-year in the January-October period. Additionally, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% year-over-year to a four-year high of 29.4 million bags, with the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association suggesting a 10% increase if weather remains favorable. Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.

Signs of tighter global coffee supplies are generally supportive of prices. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October-September) fell 0.3% year-over-year. Coffee prices also found support after Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, cut its Brazil 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate by 4.9% in September, and slightly reduced its total Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) previously projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by 2.5% to a record high, driven by a 7.9% increase in robusta production, offsetting a slight decrease in arabica output. FAS forecasted modest production increases for both Brazil and Vietnam in 2025/26, along with a climb in global ending stocks.

Coffee Prices Plunge as Trump Removes Tariffs on Brazilian Products

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On Friday, coffee prices fell sharply, with March arabica futures (KCH26) down 1.91% and January robusta futures (RMF26) falling 2.70%. Arabica reached a seven-week low.

The decline followed an executive order signed by President Trump late Thursday, exempting Brazilian food products from tariffs, including the 40% duty on Brazilian coffee. Prices dropped further after the Brazilian real weakened to a five-week low against the dollar, boosting the competitiveness of Brazilian coffee exports.

Weather factors also influenced the market. Heavy rains are forecast across Brazil’s main coffee-growing regions into next week, which benefits crop development but puts downward pressure on prices.

Robusta prices found some support from Vietnam, where heavy rainfall delayed harvesting in Dak Lak, the country’s largest coffee-producing province. Additional showers may damage crops further, providing some upward pressure on prices.

Inventory trends on ICE exchanges were mixed. US tariffs had previously limited Brazilian coffee imports, reducing stocks. As of Thursday, ICE-monitored arabica stocks dropped to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags, while robusta inventories fell to a four-month low of 5,567 lots. US buyers have been avoiding new Brazilian coffee contracts due to tariffs, tightening domestic supply, as roughly one-third of unroasted coffee in the US comes from Brazil. From August to October 2025, US imports of Brazilian coffee fell 52% year-on-year to 983,970 bags.

Rainfall data also influenced the market. Brazil’s largest arabica region, Minas Gerais, recorded 19.8 mm of rain in the week ending November 14 — 42% of the historical average, according to Somar Meteorologia.

On the supply side, analysts at StoneX forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop at 70.7 million bags, including 47.2 million bags of arabica — a 29% increase year-on-year.

Vietnam’s coffee production is also rising. January–October 2025 exports increased 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 crop year is projected at 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), a four-year high. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) expects production to be 10% higher than last year if weather conditions remain favorable. Vietnam remains the world’s largest robusta producer.

Global supply data show mixed signals. The International Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that world coffee exports for the current marketing year (October–September) fell 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.

Brazil’s Conab forecasted a smaller 2025 arabica crop, reducing it by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags, while total coffee production was adjusted down 0.9% to 55.2 million bags.

The USDA projects global coffee production in 2025/26 at a record 178.68 million bags, with arabica down 1.7% to 97.022 million bags and robusta up 7.9% to 81.658 million bags. Brazil’s crop is expected to rise 0.5% to 65 million bags, and Vietnam’s output is forecast up 6.9% to 31 million bags, a four-year high. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 22.819 million bags, up 4.9% from the previous year.

US rolls back extra duties on Brazilian coffee imports

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The administration in Washington has moved to ease trade pressure on Brazil by withdrawing an additional 40% duty that had been placed on a range of Brazilian food products, including coffee. The decision, issued through an Executive Order dated 20 November 2025, applies to goods entering the US on or after 13 November 2025. The baseline 10% tariff introduced earlier in the year remains active.

Brazil supplies a significant share of the green coffee used by the US market. When the combined import levy reached 50%, shipments between the two countries were severely disrupted. Industry data shared in August 2025 indicated a sharp drop in US purchases of Brazilian coffee during the month the extra charge took effect. Many US roasters faced higher operating costs, and retail coffee prices rose noticeably as companies redirected sourcing to alternative suppliers. Warehouses in Brazil also experienced delays as trading activity slowed.

Representatives of Brazil’s coffee export sector said the heightened tariff regime had effectively halted their ability to ship to the US, noting that clients paused new agreements immediately after the higher duty was introduced.

The trade disruption briefly shifted global buying patterns, with another major European importer receiving more Brazilian shipments during that period. Retail coffee prices in the US climbed significantly, reflecting the sudden supply imbalance.

The White House has begun reversing several import charges in recent weeks as domestic food inflation remains elevated. Earlier in November, the administration announced the removal or reduction of duties on coffee from multiple producing countries, including Vietnam and several South American origins.

Following indications that tariff reductions were forthcoming, the head of a leading US coffee trade association welcomed the policy shift, noting that easing import costs could help stabilize supply chains and reduce financial pressure on coffee drinkers and businesses across the country.

Global Coffee Giants Face Slower Growth and Rising Costs

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Leading coffee companies are encountering a slowdown in consumer demand. Poor harvests, trade tariffs, and rising costs have weakened coffee consumption in Western markets, slowing sales growth and putting pressure on company valuations in the $400 billion industry. Expansion into emerging markets like China is seen as the next step, but it will likely be a costly and complex effort.

The modern coffee surge began in the late 1990s, peaking just before the pandemic. Major chains like Starbucks spread rapidly through Western cities, followed by the emergence of numerous specialty coffee shops. Companies such as Nestlé expanded their coffee lines to capitalize on growing demand for a high-margin beverage.

In 2018, Nestlé acquired the rights to sell Starbucks-branded products outside the U.S. for $7 billion. That same year, JAB, owner of JDE Peets, invested $2 billion to acquire a controlling stake in Pret A Manger. Coca-Cola also purchased Costa for $5 billion, describing the chain as a platform to broaden coffee sales from supermarkets to automated vending.

Yet, recent years have seen challenges mount. Coffee prices have surged, making popular drinks like cappuccinos and lattes more expensive for consumers, particularly in inflation-affected regions. In the U.S., ground coffee reached a record $9 per pound, double the price from 2021, and coffee prices increased 9% in the past year, well above overall inflation.

Future production faces risks from extreme weather events—droughts, floods, and frost—in key coffee-growing countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Rising labor costs and other operational expenses now make up roughly 90% of the cost of a cup of coffee. Tariffs on countries producing coffee pods, including Switzerland and Brazil, further strain margins, though recent U.S. agreements with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador may ease some pressures.

The sector is seeing major shifts. Starbucks, valued at $100 billion, has faced profit warnings and is closing about 1% of its stores under CEO Brian Niccol. Keurig Dr Pepper’s $18 billion purchase of JDE Peets is designed to separate higher-margin beverage sales from lower-margin coffee operations. Pret A Manger also recorded a significant write-down, and Coca-Cola has considered divesting Costa due to underperformance.

Nestlé, whose at-home coffee products tend to be smaller and lower in caffeine content, appears better positioned against inflation. Still, the bigger challenge is sustaining growth in already crowded markets. In the U.S., Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts operate nearly 30,000 stores combined, while in the U.K., 98 million cups of coffee are consumed daily, with almost one in five people visiting a coffee shop each day.

To find growth, companies are increasingly turning to China and Latin America. Nestlé’s new CEO, Philipp Navratil, plans to introduce products in these regions, and Starbucks recently announced 145 new stores across Latin America and the Caribbean. However, income levels remain modest in these markets, competition is intense, and marketing costs will likely rise, limiting profitability. Starbucks’ experience in China demonstrates the difficulty of competing with local operators and imitations.

Expanding beyond saturated Western markets is logical, but the path forward may mean slower growth and smaller margins for the coffee industry.

Trump Administration Considers Coffee Tariff Reduction

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President Donald Trump indicated in a televised interview that his administration is preparing a policy shift aimed at reducing tariffs on coffee imports, a move expected to influence one of the most widely consumed commodities in the United States. His comments, though brief, come at a moment when households across the country are facing increased pressure from rising food and beverage prices.

In the interview, Trump noted that the upcoming steps will include lowering certain tariffs on coffee, framing the measure as part of a wider initiative to ease living costs for American families. Coffee, which the United States does not produce domestically in commercially viable quantities, remains heavily dependent on global supply chains and import regulations, making it sensitive to trade decisions and tariff schedules.

The president’s statement has drawn significant interest among economic analysts and industry observers who view the potential tariff reduction as a meaningful intervention in a market shaped by fluctuations in global supply, shipping disruptions, and heightened consumer demand. Within Washington, discussions have reportedly been underway regarding adjustments to tariffs on essential goods that form part of Americans’ daily consumption patterns, including coffee.

Reports suggest that the Treasury Department has explored possible frameworks for easing import duties on coffee shipments entering U.S. ports. Supporters of the proposed change argue that reducing these duties could contribute to lower retail prices, provided that broader logistical pressures—such as freight costs and delivery bottlenecks—do not counteract the effect. Businesses operating in the coffee sector, particularly roasters, cafés, and national chains, have long highlighted tariff costs as a contributing factor in pricing decisions.

In parallel to the domestic policy review, the administration is described as engaging in trade dialogues with key coffee-producing countries such as Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador. These discussions reportedly address streamlining import procedures and reducing barriers that have complicated the movement of coffee into the U.S. market. Strengthening these trade channels could not only benefit exporting nations but also help stabilize supply routes that have experienced strain in recent seasons.

The U.S. coffee market has faced sustained price pressures driven by global climate challenges affecting crop yields, elevated transportation costs, and persistent shifts in consumption patterns. Retail prices have climbed steadily, prompting questions from consumers and businesses alike about the underlying factors contributing to the upward trend. Given that the United States relies almost entirely on imported green coffee beans, the sector remains highly exposed to external shocks.

From a political standpoint, the potential tariff reduction may signal an effort by the administration to respond to public concerns about inflation and household affordability. Coffee holds a unique place in daily American life, making any decline in its price particularly visible to voters. Policies that directly influence the cost of essential consumer goods can carry notable political implications.

Internationally, a U.S. decision to ease coffee tariffs could reshape commercial relationships between the United States and producing countries seeking reliable high-volume markets. Depending on the scale and timing of the policy, the move might also influence global coffee price dynamics, especially if exporters adjust their strategies in anticipation of changing demand from American buyers.

As the industry awaits more concrete details, companies across the supply chain—importers, roasters, distributors, and retailers—are assessing how the potential adjustment might affect their operations. Lower tariffs could relieve some of the financial pressure that has accumulated due to higher operating costs, enabling businesses to revisit pricing models and long-term procurement strategies.

Although the president’s remarks did not include a timeline or formal policy outline, they represent the clearest indication to date that the administration is preparing to intervene directly in coffee-related import costs. The statement has already prompted expectations of a forthcoming announcement, as market participants and consumers closely watch Washington for the next development. The outcome of this initiative could have substantial implications for the future of coffee prices and availability across the United States.

CNN: Coffee Prices in the US Are Unlikely to Fall Anytime Soon

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CNN reports that hopes for lower coffee prices in the United States remain slim, despite the Trump administration’s recent signals about reducing tariffs on goods not grown domestically, including coffee.

According to the network, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that “substantial announcements” are expected in the coming days regarding potential tariff cuts on imports such as coffee, bananas, and other fruits. CNN notes that his comments amount to an implicit acknowledgment that the tariffs previously imposed have raised costs for American consumers — a point the administration had long disputed.

However, CNN emphasizes that even a full rollback of coffee tariffs would be unlikely to bring significant price relief. Retail coffee prices have risen about 20% year-over-year due to two major factors:

Highly volatile weather that has disrupted harvests of a crop that is already labor-intensive and difficult to grow.

Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on the world’s largest coffee exporters — Brazil (50%), Colombia (10%), and Vietnam (20%).

The network adds that coffee production is limited to specific regions of the world, making domestic expansion impossible.

Despite rising costs, CNN, citing data from the National Coffee Association, notes that American coffee consumption has not declined. Coffee is viewed as both essential and a small luxury consumers are unwilling to give up. As long as demand remains strong, businesses — from major chains like Starbucks to local cafés — continue to maintain higher prices.

Alex Susskind, a professor at Cornell University, told CNN that in business, “once you take price increases, you tend not to give them back,” suggesting that cafés are unlikely to lower prices even if tariffs disappear. Some modest relief may appear in grocery stores, where mass-market brands face more price-sensitive buyers.

CNN concludes that lowering tariffs on coffee will not meaningfully shift public sentiment. Larger economic pressures — such as housing, energy, and healthcare costs — are the real drivers of Americans’ concerns, far more than the price of a daily cup of coffee.

Sucafina Releases Key Update on Ethiopia’s 2025/26 Coffee Harvest

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Addis Ababa – Qahwa World

Sucafina Ethiopia has released its latest update on the 2025/26 coffee harvest, with Kirubel Girma, Trading & Operations Manager, outlining harvest timing, regional variations, price movements, and expanded sustainability initiatives across the country.

According to the update, the harvest is beginning later than usual this season, with a delay of around 15–20 days due to shifting weather patterns. Ripening continues to vary significantly by altitude, shaping different production trends across Ethiopia’s coffee-growing regions.

In southern Ethiopia—particularly Yirgacheffe, Gedeb, and Guji—farmers expect a moderate decline of 5% to 7% after last year’s exceptionally high crop. Meanwhile, western and south-western regions are entering a strong on-cycle year, anticipating notably higher yields compared to the 2024/25 season.

Harvest timing varies by altitude as follows:

Lowlands:

• Southern Ethiopia: mid-October to December

• Western Ethiopia: late October to January

Mid-altitude regions:

• Late October to mid-January

High-altitude regions:

• Starting in November through the first half of February

Overall production is expected to be similar to last season, with shifts between regions balancing out total output. Consistent rainfall throughout the season has supported healthy cherry development and stable growing conditions.

On the market side, cherry prices have increased sharply this year. The season opened at 120 ETB/kg and has already climbed to 145 ETB/kg, a significant jump from last year’s starting point of 35–40 ETB/kg. This rise is attributed to the devaluation of the Ethiopian birr, higher NY “C” prices, and increased competition among local buyers. The sector is also facing challenges in managing cherry price volatility amid a growing number of active market players.

Sucafina highlighted several sustainability developments, particularly in the Sidamo region, where the Lalisaa Project has expanded through a dedicated full-time field officer supporting farmers directly. This closer engagement has enhanced traceability and helped connect producers with markets offering better price incentives.

Additionally, in collaboration with destination teams and clients, Sucafina has begun returning GrainPro bags to Ethiopia. These bags are redistributed to farmers to improve on-farm storage conditions and protect quality, especially in areas lacking proper warehouse facilities.

Looking ahead, stable weather patterns, strong western yields, and improved price motivation for farmers point to a solid overall season for Ethiopia’s 2025/26 harvest. Sucafina encourages industry partners interested in sourcing Ethiopian coffee to contact their traders for current offers and origin updates.

Coffee Prices Slide as U.S. Hints at Possible Tariff Reductions

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Coffee markets recorded a sharp downturn on November 12 after fresh signals from Washington suggested that import tariffs on coffee could soon be eased, triggering immediate reactions across arabica and robusta futures. December arabica contracts declined by 3.62%, while January robusta fell by 5.09%, reaching a two-week low. The drop intensified after comments by President Donald Trump indicating plans to reduce tariffs on coffee, followed by remarks from Treasury Secretary Bessent about upcoming announcements affecting products not grown in the United States, coffee among them.

The market also reacted to the first outlook from StoneX for the 2026/27 season, which projects Brazil’s total coffee harvest at 70.7 million bags, including 47.2 million bags of arabica — a significant 29% increase compared to the previous year. Consistent rains in Brazil added further pressure, with Somar Meteorologia reporting that Minas Gerais, the country’s primary arabica-producing region, received 72.1 mm of rain during the week ending November 7, equal to 160% of its historical average. Improved moisture levels reduced earlier concerns about dryness and contributed to the bearish sentiment.

Additional downward pressure came from Vietnam, where the National Statistics Office confirmed that coffee exports for January to October 2025 rose by 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is expected to increase by 6% to 1.76 million metric tons, marking the country’s highest output in four years. Industry officials noted that, with favorable weather, the harvest could potentially surpass last year’s by 10%. Vietnam remains the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, and higher supply expectations have weighed heavily on prices.

Despite these developments, some indicators are providing support to the market. The International Coffee Organization reported a slight decline of 0.3% in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, reaching 138.658 million bags. At the same time, ICE inventories have tightened noticeably as U.S. buyers reduce purchases from Brazil since the introduction of 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports. ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 406,129 bags, while robusta stocks dropped to 5,873 lots, the lowest level in nearly four months. With about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee typically sourced from Brazil, reduced contracting has led to a visible drawdown in domestic supplies.

Longer-term climate risks also continue to influence sentiment. In mid-September, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration raised the probability of a La Niña event to 71% for the October–December period. Such conditions can bring excessively dry weather to Brazil and potentially disrupt the 2026/27 crop. Brazil’s crop agency Conab has already revised its 2025 arabica forecast downward by 4.9%, estimating 35.2 million bags, while also trimming overall coffee production to 55.2 million bags.

On a global scale, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service expects 2025/26 world coffee production to reach a record 178.68 million bags, reflecting a 2.5% increase. The outlook includes a slight decline of 1.7% in arabica production to 97.022 million bags, offset by a robust 7.9% rise in robusta output to 81.658 million bags. Brazil’s production is forecast to grow modestly by 0.5% to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is projected to rise by 6.9% to 31 million bags, the highest level in four years. Global ending stocks are estimated to climb by 4.9% to 22.819 million bags.

Global Coffee Market Finds Balance as Prices Stabilize and Trade Shifts Eastward

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October 2025 ICO Report Reveals Steady Prices, Regional Export Rebalancing, and Signs of Market Surplus

Dubai – Qahwa World

After months of price turbulence driven by weather extremes, logistics disruptions, and policy shifts, the global coffee market entered October 2025 in a rare state of equilibrium. According to the latest Coffee Market Report issued by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 326.38 US cents per pound, a modest 0.5% increase over September—marking a month of sideways stability in an otherwise volatile year.

The data reflects a market adjusting to both rising production in key origins and softening consumption growth across major economies. Yet behind this stability lies a quiet reshaping of global trade flows, as Asia and Africa consolidate export strength while South America experiences cyclical slowdown.

A Month of Stability Amid Global Uncertainty

The October 2025 I-CIP fluctuated between 314.68 and 344.77 US cents/lb, posting a median of 325.52 US cents/lb. Although stable, prices remain 30% higher than a year earlier, underscoring the persistent cost pressures that continue to define the post-pandemic coffee economy.

Price movements among coffee groups showed a clear divide. Colombian Milds slipped marginally (−0.1%) to 403.25 US cents/lb, while Other Milds gained 0.9% to 403.79 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals fell slightly to 373.47 US cents/lb, and Robustas, in contrast, expanded 2.0% to 215.06 US cents/lb — a sign of ongoing resilience in lower-grade coffee demand, especially for soluble and instant formats.

The differential between Colombian Milds and Other Milds narrowed into negative territory (−0.54 US cents/lb), highlighting how recent weather disruptions in Central America temporarily compressed quality spreads. Meanwhile, arbitrage between London and New York futures markets contracted by 2.9% to 163.84 US cents/lb, signaling closer alignment between Arabica and Robusta futures.

Market volatility, however, crept upward. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP averaged 15.9%, up by more than two percentage points month-on-month — an indication that traders remain reactive to climate events and logistics developments, such as Suez Canal restrictions and persistent container shortages delaying deliveries.

Weather, Tariffs, and Consumption Trends: Forces in Counterbalance

The ICO attributes October’s price stability to a balance between bullish and bearish factors.

On the bullish side, Hurricane Melissa and low rainfall in key Brazilian coffee zones constrained supply, while Typhoon Kalmaegi caused significant crop losses in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Cambodia. The continuation of structural backwardation in futures markets — where near-term contracts are priced higher than future ones — further indicates tight supply for immediate delivery.

At the same time, several bearish influences tempered the market. Among them, signs of slowing consumption in the United States, where rising living costs have eroded discretionary spending. Vehicle repossessions, up 12% year-on-year, highlight a broader financial strain that extends to premium beverage categories. Additionally, a potential reduction in U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee — hinted at by Presidents Donald Trump and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva — has fueled expectations of eased trade tension and lower costs for importers.

The result: prices moved horizontally through the month, neither rallying nor collapsing — a rare moment of equilibrium in a market accustomed to extremes.

Export Flows Reveal a Shifting Coffee Geography

While prices stabilized, trade patterns told a story of transformation. Global green coffee exports reached 9.94 million 60-kg bags in September 2025, down 0.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of negative growth in the 2024/25 coffee year. Total exports across all coffee forms fell by 2.8% to 11.00 million bags.

The Arabica segment showed divergence.

  • Colombian Milds rose by 7.0%, driven by Colombia’s robust output of 14.87 million bags — up 16.5% from the previous year.

  • Other Milds gained 6.1%, with Ethiopia, Mexico, and Nicaragua performing strongly.

  • Brazilian Naturals, however, plunged 21.9% as Brazil entered its “off-year” in the biennial Arabica cycle and faced logistics delays at the port of Santos.

  • Robustas grew 23.0% to 3.67 million bags, powered by Vietnam and Indonesia, whose improved harvests sharply reversed last year’s declines.

These mixed results left the Arabica share of global exports at 63.4%, a marginal drop from 63.7% the previous year — consistent with the long-term average since 2016.

Ethiopia, notably, emerged as a bright spot, expanding exports by 24.4% to 4.91 million bags on the back of an 11% rise in local production and strategic release of stored stocks responding to high international prices.

Regional Divergence: East Rises as South America Contracts

Regional analysis underscores a structural eastward shift in coffee trade:

  • Asia & Oceania: Up 29.3% year-on-year in September and 9.1% for the full coffee year, reaching 44.45 million bags. The surge was led by Vietnam (+7.1%) and Indonesia (+46%), both benefiting from favorable weather and restored yields.

  • Africa: Rose 3.2% in September and 18.6% annually to 19.69 million bags, driven by strong harvests and higher export releases from Ethiopia and Uganda.

  • South America: Fell 13.9% in September and 12.3% across the coffee year to 58.94 million bags, largely due to Brazil’s cyclical downturn and port congestion.

  • Mexico & Central America: Declined 14.6% in September but expanded 7.7% annually to 15.58 million bags, with Mexico and Nicaragua showing resilience.

As a result, South America’s share of global coffee exports slid from 48.4% to 42.5%, while Asia & Oceania’s share climbed to 32.1%, its highest level on record.

This redistribution confirms what many analysts have observed through 2025: a geographic rebalancing of coffee supply chains, with the global center of gravity shifting steadily toward Asia and Africa.

Soluble Coffee Gains Ground

Trade data by form reinforces this transformation. Exports of soluble coffee declined 21.0% in September but rose 5.0% over the full year to 16.72 million bags. This steady annual growth signals a continuing pivot toward value-added coffee formats catering to urban markets and middle-income consumers in producing countries.

By contrast, roasted coffee exports dropped 22.9% year-on-year to 0.68 million bags, reflecting weaker demand for ready-to-drink products in mature economies. Green coffee still dominates global shipments, accounting for 87.5% of total exports.

Global Balance Returns to Surplus

The ICO estimates world production at 177.5 million bags in 2024/25, up 5.2% year-on-year, outpacing consumption, which grew just 1.4% to 175.1 million bags. This modest gap yields a surplus of 2.4 million bags, marking the first positive balance since 2021/22.

The surplus reflects stronger harvests in Asia and Africa, coupled with a stabilization of consumption after the pandemic-era surge. Europe and North America both registered declines in coffee intake (−1.2% and −3.3%, respectively), while consumption in Asia & Oceania rose 7.4%, highlighting a shift in demand patterns alongside production.

A Market at the Crossroads

The October 2025 ICO report captures a market in transition. Prices have steadied, but volatility remains elevated; production is up, yet distribution challenges persist. The eastward drift of coffee trade — reinforced by Indonesia, Vietnam, Ethiopia, and Uganda — may reshape the traditional dominance of Latin American origins in the years ahead.

For producers, this stability offers breathing room after years of disruption. For traders and roasters, it demands agility — balancing sourcing strategies across continents amid ongoing climate and logistical uncertainty.

In short, the coffee world has entered a new phase: from crisis to cautious equilibrium, where resilience and regional diversification define the next chapter of global coffee commerce.