Tag: Coffee Prices

Coffee Prices Rise Amid Brazilian Heatwave and Supply Pressures

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Coffee markets are seeing an upward shift in prices, driven by weather events in key production regions and tightening global supplies.

March arabica futures rose 1.26%, while ICE robusta for January had previously gained 1.06% before the holiday closure. The Brazilian coffee belt is experiencing a heatwave forecasted to last through Monday, putting pressure on crops and supporting prices.

Additional factors are influencing the market. In Indonesia, recent floods have affected roughly one-third of northern Sumatra’s arabica plantations, potentially cutting the nation’s coffee exports by up to 15% in the 2025-26 season. Robusta production has been less impacted. Indonesia remains the third-largest robusta producer worldwide.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s Minas Gerais region received rainfall during the week ending December 19 that was below average, according to Somar Meteorologia. Reduced precipitation in key growing areas can add bullish pressure on arabica coffee.

Coffee inventories also play a role in market dynamics. ICE-tracked arabica stocks hit a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags in November before rising to 456,477 bags recently. Robust a inventories similarly fell to near 12-month lows before modest recovery.

US demand for Brazilian coffee remains restrained. Tariffs previously imposed on imports led to a 52% drop in purchases from August to October compared to the previous year. Although tariffs have since eased, US stock levels remain limited.

On the supply side, Brazil’s national crop agency Conab raised its 2025 production estimate to 56.54 million bags, up from 55.20 million in September, signaling an ample supply outlook.

Robusta coffee faces downward pressure amid expectations of strong output. Vietnam’s coffee exports surged 39% year-on-year in November and 14.8% from January to November, according to government statistics. Total production in 2025/26 is projected to rise 6% to 1.76 million metric tons, a four-year high.

Globally, the International Coffee Organization reported a slight decline of 0.3% in coffee exports for the current marketing year, supporting price stability. The USDA projects world coffee output for 2025/26 to reach a record 178.85 million bags, with arabica falling 4.7% and robusta rising 10.9%. Brazil’s production is expected to decrease by 3.1%, while Vietnam’s output could rise 6.2% to a four-year high. Ending stocks are projected to decline by 5.4% to 20.15 million bags.

Overall, a combination of adverse weather in Brazil, flooding in Indonesia, and fluctuating inventories is contributing to upward momentum in coffee prices, even as abundant output in some regions, particularly Vietnam, applies downward pressure on robusta markets.

Indian Coffee Export Earnings Set to Surpass $2 Billion in 2025

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Indian coffee exports are on track to cross the $2 billion mark by the close of 2025, driven primarily by strong global prices, even as shipment volumes decline.

According to export permit data issued by the Coffee Board of India, the total value of coffee exports reached approximately $1.968 billion by 16 December. This represents a year-on-year increase of about 21% compared with the $1.63 billion recorded during the same period in 2024. The export value is more than double what the sector generated five years ago, underscoring the impact of sustained price strength in international markets.

In contrast, export volumes moved in the opposite direction. Shipments up to mid-December totaled around 366,000 tonnes, down from 391,000 tonnes during the corresponding period last year, reflecting a decline of roughly 6%.

Industry sources cited by Indian media reports suggest that the reduction in volumes is partly linked to some European buyers opting for lower-priced coffee origins, as Indian coffee prices remained comparatively high throughout the year.

Despite this shift, Indian coffee—both Robusta and Arabica—continues to command solid premiums on global exchanges. Indian Robusta parchment AB is currently trading at an estimated premium of $1,000 to $1,100 per tonne above London LIFFE prices. Robusta cherry AB is fetching an additional $400 to $450 per tonne. Meanwhile, Arabica parchment is selling at a premium of approximately 12 to 15 US cents per pound over New York market prices.

Europe remained the largest destination for Indian coffee exports. Italy accounted for about 18% of total shipments, followed by Germany at 11% and Belgium at 7.5%. Other key markets included the Russian Federation, which absorbed roughly 5.3% of exports, and the United Arab Emirates at around 5%.

India currently ranks as the world’s seventh-largest coffee producer and the fifth-largest exporter, maintaining a strong position in the global coffee trade despite ongoing shifts in demand and pricing dynamics.

Coffee Prices Find Support Amid Indonesian Flooding

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Global coffee prices showed mixed movement on Tuesday, with market sentiment shaped by supply concerns in Southeast Asia and updated production forecasts from major producing countries.

Arabica coffee futures for March delivery edged lower, while robusta contracts for January moved higher. The divergence reflects differing supply dynamics for the two varieties.

Prices have received support from extensive flooding in Indonesia, a key coffee producer. Recent reports indicate that floodwaters have affected roughly one-third of arabica coffee farms in northern Sumatra. Robusta-growing areas, however, appear to have suffered less damage, limiting the overall impact on Indonesia’s export capacity.

Weather developments in Brazil also influenced the market. According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais — the country’s largest arabica-producing region — recorded 38.3 millimeters of rainfall during the week ending December 19. This amount represents approximately 76% of the historical weekly average, easing concerns about drought stress in key growing zones.

Despite these supportive factors, expectations of ample global supply continue to weigh on prices. Brazil’s agricultural forecasting agency revised its 2025 coffee production estimate upward in early December, projecting total output at 56.54 million bags, compared with a previous estimate of 55.20 million bags.

Robusta prices remain under pressure due to strong export flows from Vietnam. Official statistics showed that Vietnam’s coffee exports surged sharply in November, with shipments rising significantly compared to the same month last year. Cumulative exports for the January–November period also posted strong year-on-year growth.

Arabica prices, meanwhile, found some support from lower Brazilian export volumes. Data from Brazil’s coffee exporters association indicated a notable decline in green coffee exports in November compared with the same period last year.

Inventory levels on ICE exchanges have also played a role in recent price movements. Certified arabica stocks fell to their lowest level in more than a year in late November before rebounding in December. Robusta inventories followed a similar pattern, declining to multi-month lows earlier in the month and then partially recovering.

Trade flows to the United States added another layer of complexity. Purchases of Brazilian coffee by U.S. buyers dropped sharply during the period when higher tariffs were in place earlier in the year. Although those tariffs have since been reduced, U.S. inventories remain tight following the earlier slowdown in imports.

Looking ahead, rising production in Vietnam is seen as a bearish factor. Forecasts for the 2025/26 season suggest higher output, with industry groups indicating that favorable weather conditions could push production well above last year’s levels. Vietnam remains the world’s leading producer of robusta coffee.

At the global level, some indicators point to tighter supply. The International Coffee Organization recently reported a slight decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year.

However, longer-term projections suggest overall production growth. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects global coffee output in the 2025/26 season to reach a record level, driven by increased robusta production, even as arabica output is forecast to decline. Ending stocks are projected to fall compared with the previous season, reflecting ongoing demand and inventory adjustments.

Rising Prices Redraw Coffee Consumption Habits

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Surging coffee prices have not pushed consumers to abandon their daily cup. Instead, higher costs are reshaping how coffee is consumed. As global inflation weighs on household budgets, many consumers are adjusting purchasing habits rather than giving up a routine that has become embedded in everyday life.

Market indicators show that coffee demand remains relatively steady despite higher prices, highlighting the sector’s resilience and ability to adapt. This comes at a time when climate-related challenges and trade pressures continue to drive costs upward across global supply chains.

Production Under Pressure, Prices on the Rise

Coffee markets are facing a widening gap between supply and demand. Output has been affected in several key growing regions, while transportation and logistics costs have risen. Together, these factors have contributed to elevated price levels over the past period.

Top Coffee-Producing Countries

(thousand bags, 60 kg per bag)

Rank Country Expected Production
1 Brazil 63,000
2 Vietnam 30,800
3 Colombia 13,800
4 Indonesia 12,450
5 Ethiopia 11,560
6 Uganda 6,875
7 India 6,050
8 Honduras 5,800
9 Peru 4,200
10 Mexico 3,903

New Ways to Keep the Habit

Rather than cutting coffee out altogether, consumers are increasingly turning to lower-cost alternatives. Home brewing has gained popularity, with many attempting to recreate café-style drinks using simple equipment. This approach allows consumers to preserve the experience while reducing spending.

The shift reflects a broader rebalancing of priorities, where enjoyment is maintained but costs are kept under control.

Coffee Shops Adjust Their Strategies

Changes in consumer behavior have also prompted cafés to rethink their business models. Faster service options and more affordable menu choices are becoming more common, as operators respond to growing price sensitivity.

Market observations suggest that coffee consumption has not declined, but has instead taken new forms, with customers opting for simpler or less expensive options rather than stopping purchases entirely.

Coffee as a Resilient Consumer Good

Coffee offers a clear example of a product with relatively flexible demand in the face of price shocks. Even as prices reach historically high levels, consumption remains broadly stable, reflecting coffee’s status as a daily essential for many people.

Largest Coffee-Consuming Markets (2025–2026)

(thousand bags, 60 kg per bag)

Rank Country / Entity Expected Consumption
1 European Union 41,870
2 United States 26,550
3 Brazil 22,162
4 Japan 7,550
5 Philippines 6,780
6 China 5,500
7 Indonesia 4,900
8 Canada 4,800
9 Vietnam 3,750
10 Russia 3,610

Global Coffee Market: Collapsing Inventories and a Fragile Price Truce

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The global coffee market is currently resting in a precarious calm, according to the International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) November 2025 Market Report. Despite major geopolitical and climatic events, the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) showed only a marginal rise of 1.2%, averaging 330.44 US cents/lb.

This unexpected stability is not a sign of market health, but rather the result of a dramatic “offsetting effect” between two powerful, opposing forces: a historical US decision to soften tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports (a bearish signal), and devastating floods that struck Vietnam’s Central Highlands (a bullish factor).

  • The Damp Squib of US Tariff Relief

The most significant political event of the month was the US administration’s move to phase out the additional 40% tariff previously imposed on Brazilian coffee imports. This action should have triggered a sharp price correction downward, given Brazil’s status as the world’s largest producer.

The Professional Read: The market reaction was surprisingly muted. The I-CIP did dip to its monthly low (320.39 cents/lb) following the announcement, but the effect dissipated within three days. Analysts concur that the market had “priced in” the removal of the tariffs beforehand, drastically reducing the impact.

Compounding the lack of immediate bearish pressure, Brazil’s export performance remains subdued. Exports of Brazilian Naturals declined by 8.2% in October, marking the eighth consecutive month of negative growth for this key group, highlighting underlying challenges linked to the Arabica production cycle and not just trade barriers.

  • Vietnam’s Catastrophe: The Unlikely Price Stabilizer

As the US news failed to exert sustained downward pressure, a major climatic shock in Asia provided the necessary counter-balance. Severe flooding hit Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the global nucleus for Robusta coffee production.

• Destruction Estimates: Initial reports from Dak Lak indicated that an estimated 10% to 15% of the 2025/26 coffee crop, which was already harvested and undergoing the drying process, was significantly damaged.
• Price Resilience: This dire news provided crucial support, preventing Robusta coffee prices from sliding (they contracted only a negligible 0.1%). Furthermore, the supply concerns emanating from Asia helped push all Arabica groups (including Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds) higher, with increases ranging from 1.4% to 1.8%, contributing strongly to the overall I-CIP stability.

  • The Red Flag: Global Inventory Collapse

The most alarming data point in the ICO report is the state of exchange-certified stocks, which are rapidly depleting and indicate a severe structural vulnerability in the global supply chain.

• Robusta Stocks Crash: Certified Robusta coffee stocks at the London exchange plunged by a dramatic 28.3% in November, settling at a precarious 0.73 million bags.
• Arabica Drawdown: Arabica stocks in New York also drew down by 5.9%.

This inventory collapse means the market is quickly losing its buffer capacity. It is becoming almost entirely reliant on continuous, smooth flows of new harvests, making it exceptionally sensitive to any disruptions (like the future fallout from the Vietnam floods) and highly susceptible to sharp, upward price spikes.

  • Shifting Tides: The Decline of Latin American Dominance

While total global green coffee exports saw a slight rise of 1.9% in October 2025, the geographical distribution reveals a critical strategic shift.

• South America Retreats: Exports from South America (driven mainly by Brazil) declined by 13.0%, marking the eleventh consecutive month of negative growth for the region.
• Africa and Asia Surge: This gap was aggressively filled by other origins: Asia and Oceania exports jumped 23.9% (fueled by Vietnam), and African exports soared by 21.9% (led by Ethiopia and Uganda).
• Arabica Share Shrinks: The total share of Arabica coffee in green exports fell to 68.8% from 70.2% the previous year, underscoring the market’s increasing dependence on Robusta coffee to meet overall global demand.

  • The Bottom Line

The price stability observed in November was a fluke, a result of powerful forces cancelling each other out. The true economic background—collapsing exchange inventories and the sustained export decline from the world’s largest producer—suggests the market is in a highly precarious state of “active waiting.

The coffee sector is now dangerously exposed. Any further negative climate report or logistical disruption will likely shatter the current equilibrium, immediately unleashing a sharp, acute wave of price volatility. Buyers should prepare for potential supply shocks and the associated upward pricing pressure in the coming months.

 

Coffee Prices Drop as Supply Outlook Strengthens

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Coffee prices experienced a sharp decline on Monday, with arabica falling to a two-week low and robusta reaching a 2.25-month low. The downturn comes amid expectations of abundant global coffee supplies.

Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, recently raised its 2025 production forecast to 56.54 million bags, up from 55.20 million bags projected in September. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported a 39% year-on-year increase in November coffee exports, reaching 88,000 metric tons, while January–November exports grew nearly 15% to 1.398 million metric tons.

Analysts at StoneX forecast that Brazil could produce 70.7 million bags in the 2026/27 marketing year, including 47.2 million bags of arabica—a 29% increase compared to the previous year.

The European Union’s recent one-year delay of its deforestation regulation (EUDR) is also influencing market sentiment. The measure, designed to curb deforestation in countries exporting key commodities to the EU, now allows continued imports of coffee, soybeans, and cocoa from regions experiencing deforestation, contributing to expectations of steady supply.

Weather conditions in Brazil are playing a mixed role. In the country’s largest arabica-producing region, Minas Gerais, rainfall was reported at just 11 mm for the week ending December 5, only 17% of the historical average—offering some support for prices.

U.S. coffee inventories monitored by ICE have tightened due to tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports. Arabica stocks fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags in late November, though they recently rebounded to over 426,000 bags. Robusta stocks dropped to an 11.5-month low on Monday. U.S. purchases of Brazilian coffee from August to October declined 52% year-on-year following the tariff implementation, reducing domestic supply.

On the other hand, increased production from Vietnam exerts downward pressure on prices. The country is expected to produce 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags) in 2025/26, a four-year high, with the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association projecting a 10% increase over the previous crop if favorable weather continues. Vietnam remains the world’s largest robusta producer.

Globally, signs of tighter supplies provide some price support. The International Coffee Organization reported a slight 0.3% year-on-year decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, totaling 138.658 million bags.

The USDA projects world coffee production in 2025/26 to reach a record 178.68 million bags, with arabica slightly down 1.7% to 97.022 million bags and robusta rising 7.9% to 81.658 million bags. Brazil’s output is expected to increase modestly to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s crop could rise to a four-year high of 31 million bags. Global ending stocks are forecast to grow nearly 5% to 22.819 million bags.

Coffee Prices in the United States Reach Their Highest Levels in Decades

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Coffee has become significantly more expensive across the United States, even after the recent removal of tariffs on imported beans. Shoppers continue to encounter elevated prices in supermarkets and cafés, raising questions about the reasons behind this sustained increase.

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the average retail price of roasted coffee rose from $6.47 to $9.14 per pound in the 12 months leading up to September, an increase of roughly 41%. The nearly $3 jump is far steeper than the typical price fluctuations seen during volatile market periods, making the rise particularly notable to consumers.

The impact is evident on store shelves. A TikTok video posted in August drew attention to the rising cost of large containers of Maxwell House coffee at Walmart stores, where a 38.2-ounce tub reached $21.44 after nearly doubling in price within a year. The post struck a chord with many viewers who shared similar experiences with rising grocery bills.

Other major brands, such as Nespresso and Folgers, have also raised prices over the past year. Café prices have continued in the same direction: according to data tracked by the restaurant-software company Toast, the average price of a regular cup of coffee increased from $3.46 to $3.57 in the year ending October 2025.

Industry analysts describe this period as one of the most pronounced and sustained increases in coffee prices since the early 1980s, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics began monitoring retail coffee trends. Several major factors lie behind the surge:

• Weather-related disruptions in 2024, including drought and heavy rainfall in key producing regions such as Brazil and Vietnam, significantly affected yields.

• Coffee futures climbed sharply, rising from around $2 per pound in May 2024 to approximately $4 in April 2025, increasing the cost burden on importers and roasters.

• Tariffs introduced by the U.S. government in April 2025 added further pressure, with 10% duties placed on imports from several Latin American countries, about 20% on Asian suppliers, and a steep 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee.

During the period in which tariffs were applied, average retail prices rose by roughly 21%. In mid-November, the U.S. administration began rolling back these trade measures. Duties were removed for nearly all producing countries, and the remaining 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee was lifted shortly afterward, effectively ending the tariff structure for most major exporters.

Experts expect that it will take time for changes in import and wholesale prices to filter through to retail shelves, since consumer pricing tends to lag behind market adjustments. Still, the removal of tariffs is broadly seen as a step toward easing cost pressures in the months ahead.

Coffee Prices End the Week Higher as the Brazilian Real Strengthens

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March arabica coffee (KCH26) finished Friday’s session up by +1.50 (+0.40%), while January ICE robusta (RMF26) added +26 (+0.57%).

Coffee futures reached their highest levels in a week on Friday, supported by a stronger Brazilian real. As the real (^USDBRL) advanced to a one-week peak against the US dollar, Brazilian growers were less inclined to sell, prompting short covering in the market.

Weather concerns continue to contribute to upward pressure on prices. Arabica markets are receiving support from ongoing dryness in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais—Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region—recorded 26.4 mm of rainfall in the week ending November 21, representing just 49% of the long-term average. Robusta prices are also firm as forecasts predict heavy rains across Dak Lak in Vietnam, the country’s key coffee-growing province, which are expected to further postpone the current harvest.

Falling ICE coffee stockpiles remain a bullish factor. US tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports have sharply reduced inventories. Arabica stocks monitored by ICE dropped to 398,645 bags last Thursday, the lowest level in 1.75 years, while robusta inventories hit a 6.5-month low of 4,530 lots on Friday. American importers have canceled new orders from Brazil due to tariff pressures, tightening domestic supply. Between August and October—after the tariffs were introduced—US purchases of Brazilian coffee fell by 52% year-on-year to 983,970 bags. Roughly one-third of the coffee imported unroasted into the US typically originates from Brazil.

Last Friday, arabica futures slumped to a 7-week low after President Trump signed an executive order late Thursday removing tariff restrictions on Brazilian food goods, including the 40% levy previously applied to Brazilian coffee.

On the bearish side, StoneX projected last Wednesday that Brazil could produce 70.7 million bags of coffee in the 2026/27 marketing year, including 47.2 million bags of arabica—a 29% increase from the previous year.

Robusta markets also face pressure from expanding supply out of Vietnam. Data from the Vietnam National Statistics Office on November 6 showed that coffee exports for January–October 2025 rose by 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), reaching a four-year high. In addition, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) stated on October 24 that, provided weather conditions remain favorable, the country’s 2025/26 crop could exceed last year’s output by 10%. Vietnam remains the world’s largest producer of robusta.

Signs of tightening global supply continue to underpin prices. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the ongoing marketing year (October–September) slipped by 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.

Further support emerged after Brazil’s crop agency Conab reduced its 2025 arabica production estimate on September 4. The new estimate stands at 35.2 million bags, down 4.9% from the May forecast of 37.0 million bags. Conab also revised the country’s total 2025 coffee crop downward to 55.2 million bags, compared with the earlier estimate of 55.7 million bags.

According to the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) outlook released on June 25, global coffee production for 2025/26 is expected to rise by 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.68 million bags. The report anticipates arabica production will fall by 1.7% to 97.022 million bags, while robusta output will rise 7.9% to 81.658 million bags. FAS also forecasts Brazil’s 2025/26 crop increasing by 0.5% to 65 million bags and Vietnam’s output jumping 6.9% to 31 million bags, marking a four-year high. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to grow by 4.9% to 22.819 million bags, up from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25.

Coffee Prices Continue Rising Despite Tariff Cuts

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The global coffee market is entering a protracted period of rising prices, and even the easing of US tariffs has failed to change the trajectory of rapid price growth. In recent months, Arabica coffee has reached historic highs, and retail prices are only just beginning to reflect this jump. Experts warn that a reduction in the drink’s cost should not be expected in the foreseeable future, as supply chains and price dynamics continue to exert pressure on producers and sellers.

The global coffee market is entering a protracted period of rising prices, and even the easing of US tariffs has failed to change the trajectory of rapid price growth. In recent months, Arabica coffee has reached historic highs, and retail prices are only just beginning to reflect this jump. Experts warn that a reduction in the drink’s cost should not be expected in the foreseeable future, as supply chains and price dynamics continue to exert pressure on producers and sellers.

Cristina Scocchia, CEO of Illycaffe, announced that prices will increase again in January—the third such increase this year. She stated that the current rise in green bean costs remains “unhealthy,” and the company can no longer compensate for the increased expenses. Scocchia emphasized that the price increase will affect all countries and all sales channels. She attributes the sharp rise in Arabica prices primarily to speculation rather than global supply disruptions, although weak harvests in several countries also affect the market. (Note: I cannot confirm the accuracy of the company’s forecasts.)

Following the expansion of tariff concessions by US President Donald Trump for Brazilian agricultural products, Arabica and Robusta futures dropped by a few percent, but this effect proved temporary. Prices remained at abnormally high levels, underscoring the resilience of the long-term upward trend. The historical jump witnessed from 2023–2024—with Arabica costs increasing by almost 190% and Robusta by more than 260%—has not yet been fully reflected in retail. According to Carlos Mera, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research at Rabobank, the lag between exchange dynamics and store prices can range from several months to a year, so consumers should prepare for further price increases.

Despite the drop in futures and the easing of tariffs, producers continue to expect market growth and stable demand. According to Illycaffe’s long-term forecast, the cost of green Arabica will only enter a more stable range—remaining within $2.80–$3.00 per pound—in the second half of 2026. This indicates that the era of low coffee prices has effectively concluded, and the influence of speculative factors, climate risks, and trade policy will continue to hold the market in a high-cost zone.

Collectively, these factors form a strong expectation of further price increases for the end consumer. Even with sustained demand and the gradual adaptation of the market to new conditions, experts agree that a return to previous prices in the coming years is unlikely.

Global Coffee Prices Jump Amid Supply Concerns

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Prices for coffee futures saw a sharp increase today, driven by worries over how weather conditions might impact harvests in major producing nations, alongside notable drops in monitored exchange inventories.

Prices for both arabica and robusta coffee are significantly higher as adverse weather bolsters concerns over global coffee crops. Arabica coffee has found support due to dryness concerns in Brazil. Specifically, meteorology reports indicated that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 49% of its historical average rainfall during the week ended November 21st, fueling concerns about the current crop. Robusta coffee is climbing today on forecasts of heavy showers in Vietnam’s Dak Lak province, the country’s biggest coffee-growing region. These heavy rains are expected to further delay the harvest, tightening short-term supply expectations.

Shrinking inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are also supportive of prices. US trade actions concerning Brazilian coffee imports have reportedly caused a substantial reduction in US exchange stockpiles. ICE-monitored arabica stocks fell to a 1.75-year low last week, and ICE robusta inventories hit a 4.5-month low today. American buyers avoided new contracts for Brazilian coffee purchases due to the tariffs, thereby tightening US supplies, as about a third of America’s unroasted coffee comes from Brazil. US purchases of Brazilian coffee during the period when tariffs were effective dropped by 52% from the same period last year.

Last Friday, arabica coffee had briefly tumbled to a seven-week low after an executive order was signed late last week, exempting Brazilian food products, including coffee, from the 40% tariff. In a potentially bearish factor, one major commodity consultancy forecast that Brazil will produce 70.7 million bags of coffee in the new 2026/27 marketing year, including 47.2 million bags of arabica, a significant year-over-year increase. Increased Vietnamese coffee supplies are also bearish for prices. Recent statistics show Vietnam’s coffee exports rose by 13.4% year-over-year in the January-October period. Additionally, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% year-over-year to a four-year high of 29.4 million bags, with the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association suggesting a 10% increase if weather remains favorable. Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.

Signs of tighter global coffee supplies are generally supportive of prices. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October-September) fell 0.3% year-over-year. Coffee prices also found support after Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, cut its Brazil 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate by 4.9% in September, and slightly reduced its total Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) previously projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by 2.5% to a record high, driven by a 7.9% increase in robusta production, offsetting a slight decrease in arabica output. FAS forecasted modest production increases for both Brazil and Vietnam in 2025/26, along with a climb in global ending stocks.

Coffee Prices Plunge as Trump Removes Tariffs on Brazilian Products

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On Friday, coffee prices fell sharply, with March arabica futures (KCH26) down 1.91% and January robusta futures (RMF26) falling 2.70%. Arabica reached a seven-week low.

The decline followed an executive order signed by President Trump late Thursday, exempting Brazilian food products from tariffs, including the 40% duty on Brazilian coffee. Prices dropped further after the Brazilian real weakened to a five-week low against the dollar, boosting the competitiveness of Brazilian coffee exports.

Weather factors also influenced the market. Heavy rains are forecast across Brazil’s main coffee-growing regions into next week, which benefits crop development but puts downward pressure on prices.

Robusta prices found some support from Vietnam, where heavy rainfall delayed harvesting in Dak Lak, the country’s largest coffee-producing province. Additional showers may damage crops further, providing some upward pressure on prices.

Inventory trends on ICE exchanges were mixed. US tariffs had previously limited Brazilian coffee imports, reducing stocks. As of Thursday, ICE-monitored arabica stocks dropped to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags, while robusta inventories fell to a four-month low of 5,567 lots. US buyers have been avoiding new Brazilian coffee contracts due to tariffs, tightening domestic supply, as roughly one-third of unroasted coffee in the US comes from Brazil. From August to October 2025, US imports of Brazilian coffee fell 52% year-on-year to 983,970 bags.

Rainfall data also influenced the market. Brazil’s largest arabica region, Minas Gerais, recorded 19.8 mm of rain in the week ending November 14 — 42% of the historical average, according to Somar Meteorologia.

On the supply side, analysts at StoneX forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop at 70.7 million bags, including 47.2 million bags of arabica — a 29% increase year-on-year.

Vietnam’s coffee production is also rising. January–October 2025 exports increased 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 crop year is projected at 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), a four-year high. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) expects production to be 10% higher than last year if weather conditions remain favorable. Vietnam remains the world’s largest robusta producer.

Global supply data show mixed signals. The International Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that world coffee exports for the current marketing year (October–September) fell 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.

Brazil’s Conab forecasted a smaller 2025 arabica crop, reducing it by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags, while total coffee production was adjusted down 0.9% to 55.2 million bags.

The USDA projects global coffee production in 2025/26 at a record 178.68 million bags, with arabica down 1.7% to 97.022 million bags and robusta up 7.9% to 81.658 million bags. Brazil’s crop is expected to rise 0.5% to 65 million bags, and Vietnam’s output is forecast up 6.9% to 31 million bags, a four-year high. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 22.819 million bags, up 4.9% from the previous year.

US rolls back extra duties on Brazilian coffee imports

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The administration in Washington has moved to ease trade pressure on Brazil by withdrawing an additional 40% duty that had been placed on a range of Brazilian food products, including coffee. The decision, issued through an Executive Order dated 20 November 2025, applies to goods entering the US on or after 13 November 2025. The baseline 10% tariff introduced earlier in the year remains active.

Brazil supplies a significant share of the green coffee used by the US market. When the combined import levy reached 50%, shipments between the two countries were severely disrupted. Industry data shared in August 2025 indicated a sharp drop in US purchases of Brazilian coffee during the month the extra charge took effect. Many US roasters faced higher operating costs, and retail coffee prices rose noticeably as companies redirected sourcing to alternative suppliers. Warehouses in Brazil also experienced delays as trading activity slowed.

Representatives of Brazil’s coffee export sector said the heightened tariff regime had effectively halted their ability to ship to the US, noting that clients paused new agreements immediately after the higher duty was introduced.

The trade disruption briefly shifted global buying patterns, with another major European importer receiving more Brazilian shipments during that period. Retail coffee prices in the US climbed significantly, reflecting the sudden supply imbalance.

The White House has begun reversing several import charges in recent weeks as domestic food inflation remains elevated. Earlier in November, the administration announced the removal or reduction of duties on coffee from multiple producing countries, including Vietnam and several South American origins.

Following indications that tariff reductions were forthcoming, the head of a leading US coffee trade association welcomed the policy shift, noting that easing import costs could help stabilize supply chains and reduce financial pressure on coffee drinkers and businesses across the country.