Tag: Coffee Exports

Indian Coffee Export Earnings Set to Surpass $2 Billion in 2025

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Indian coffee exports are on track to cross the $2 billion mark by the close of 2025, driven primarily by strong global prices, even as shipment volumes decline.

According to export permit data issued by the Coffee Board of India, the total value of coffee exports reached approximately $1.968 billion by 16 December. This represents a year-on-year increase of about 21% compared with the $1.63 billion recorded during the same period in 2024. The export value is more than double what the sector generated five years ago, underscoring the impact of sustained price strength in international markets.

In contrast, export volumes moved in the opposite direction. Shipments up to mid-December totaled around 366,000 tonnes, down from 391,000 tonnes during the corresponding period last year, reflecting a decline of roughly 6%.

Industry sources cited by Indian media reports suggest that the reduction in volumes is partly linked to some European buyers opting for lower-priced coffee origins, as Indian coffee prices remained comparatively high throughout the year.

Despite this shift, Indian coffee—both Robusta and Arabica—continues to command solid premiums on global exchanges. Indian Robusta parchment AB is currently trading at an estimated premium of $1,000 to $1,100 per tonne above London LIFFE prices. Robusta cherry AB is fetching an additional $400 to $450 per tonne. Meanwhile, Arabica parchment is selling at a premium of approximately 12 to 15 US cents per pound over New York market prices.

Europe remained the largest destination for Indian coffee exports. Italy accounted for about 18% of total shipments, followed by Germany at 11% and Belgium at 7.5%. Other key markets included the Russian Federation, which absorbed roughly 5.3% of exports, and the United Arab Emirates at around 5%.

India currently ranks as the world’s seventh-largest coffee producer and the fifth-largest exporter, maintaining a strong position in the global coffee trade despite ongoing shifts in demand and pricing dynamics.

Coffee Prices Find Support Amid Indonesian Flooding

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Dubai – Qahwa WORLD

Global coffee prices showed mixed movement on Tuesday, with market sentiment shaped by supply concerns in Southeast Asia and updated production forecasts from major producing countries.

Arabica coffee futures for March delivery edged lower, while robusta contracts for January moved higher. The divergence reflects differing supply dynamics for the two varieties.

Prices have received support from extensive flooding in Indonesia, a key coffee producer. Recent reports indicate that floodwaters have affected roughly one-third of arabica coffee farms in northern Sumatra. Robusta-growing areas, however, appear to have suffered less damage, limiting the overall impact on Indonesia’s export capacity.

Weather developments in Brazil also influenced the market. According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais — the country’s largest arabica-producing region — recorded 38.3 millimeters of rainfall during the week ending December 19. This amount represents approximately 76% of the historical weekly average, easing concerns about drought stress in key growing zones.

Despite these supportive factors, expectations of ample global supply continue to weigh on prices. Brazil’s agricultural forecasting agency revised its 2025 coffee production estimate upward in early December, projecting total output at 56.54 million bags, compared with a previous estimate of 55.20 million bags.

Robusta prices remain under pressure due to strong export flows from Vietnam. Official statistics showed that Vietnam’s coffee exports surged sharply in November, with shipments rising significantly compared to the same month last year. Cumulative exports for the January–November period also posted strong year-on-year growth.

Arabica prices, meanwhile, found some support from lower Brazilian export volumes. Data from Brazil’s coffee exporters association indicated a notable decline in green coffee exports in November compared with the same period last year.

Inventory levels on ICE exchanges have also played a role in recent price movements. Certified arabica stocks fell to their lowest level in more than a year in late November before rebounding in December. Robusta inventories followed a similar pattern, declining to multi-month lows earlier in the month and then partially recovering.

Trade flows to the United States added another layer of complexity. Purchases of Brazilian coffee by U.S. buyers dropped sharply during the period when higher tariffs were in place earlier in the year. Although those tariffs have since been reduced, U.S. inventories remain tight following the earlier slowdown in imports.

Looking ahead, rising production in Vietnam is seen as a bearish factor. Forecasts for the 2025/26 season suggest higher output, with industry groups indicating that favorable weather conditions could push production well above last year’s levels. Vietnam remains the world’s leading producer of robusta coffee.

At the global level, some indicators point to tighter supply. The International Coffee Organization recently reported a slight decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year.

However, longer-term projections suggest overall production growth. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects global coffee output in the 2025/26 season to reach a record level, driven by increased robusta production, even as arabica output is forecast to decline. Ending stocks are projected to fall compared with the previous season, reflecting ongoing demand and inventory adjustments.

Three Types of Vietnamese Coffee Among the Top 10 Beverages in Southeast Asia

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Three Vietnamese coffee drinks have been ranked among the top 10 beverages in Southeast Asia, according to a culinary ranking published by a specialized food platform. This recognition reflects Vietnam’s continued strong presence on the regional beverage map.

Iced milk coffee ranked third, described as a balanced blend combining strong coffee, condensed milk, and ice, creating a rich and appealing flavor. Traditionally, it is prepared using medium or coarse roasted coffee brewed through a drip filter, then mixed with condensed milk and served over ice. A modern version uses concentrated coffee with condensed milk.

Vietnamese black coffee took sixth place. Although black coffee is popular worldwide, the Vietnamese version stands out due to its unique coffee varieties and traditional roasting styles. Coffee was introduced to Vietnam in the nineteenth century, and the country later became one of the world’s leading producers of robusta beans. Robusta is known for its strong flavor and low acidity, and in some regions it is roasted with butter, sugar, or vanilla to enhance its taste.

Egg coffee from Hanoi also made it into the top 10. This drink is known for its rich and sweet taste, prepared with strong coffee topped with a creamy layer made from whisked egg yolk mixed with condensed milk until smooth and frothy. The recipe dates back to the 1950s.

Several other Vietnamese beverages appeared in the upper ranks, including lotus tea (ranked 12), frozen yogurt (23), apple wine (26), fermented rice wine (29), and sticky black rice wine (31). Innovative coffee creations such as salted coffee and coconut coffee were also included.

Thai red milk tea topped the list of the best 62 beverages in the region, while Malaysian white coffee ranked second.

In recent years, Vietnamese coffee has received significant international recognition in global newspapers and magazines, appearing in lists of the world’s best coffees and in cultural reports highlighting its unique flavors and preparation methods.

Coffee was introduced to Vietnam in 1857 and flourished in the central highlands, particularly robusta due to the favorable climate and soil. Today, coffee is a key industrial crop in Vietnam, grown on an area of about 680 thousand hectares.

Vietnam’s coffee exports saw remarkable growth in 2025. By November 15, total exports reached approximately 1.35 million tons, valued at 7.64 billion dollars, representing an increase of 14.6% in volume and 62.3% in value compared to the same period in 2024.

Global Coffee Market Finds Balance as Prices Stabilize and Trade Shifts Eastward

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October 2025 ICO Report Reveals Steady Prices, Regional Export Rebalancing, and Signs of Market Surplus

Dubai – Qahwa World

After months of price turbulence driven by weather extremes, logistics disruptions, and policy shifts, the global coffee market entered October 2025 in a rare state of equilibrium. According to the latest Coffee Market Report issued by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 326.38 US cents per pound, a modest 0.5% increase over September—marking a month of sideways stability in an otherwise volatile year.

The data reflects a market adjusting to both rising production in key origins and softening consumption growth across major economies. Yet behind this stability lies a quiet reshaping of global trade flows, as Asia and Africa consolidate export strength while South America experiences cyclical slowdown.

A Month of Stability Amid Global Uncertainty

The October 2025 I-CIP fluctuated between 314.68 and 344.77 US cents/lb, posting a median of 325.52 US cents/lb. Although stable, prices remain 30% higher than a year earlier, underscoring the persistent cost pressures that continue to define the post-pandemic coffee economy.

Price movements among coffee groups showed a clear divide. Colombian Milds slipped marginally (−0.1%) to 403.25 US cents/lb, while Other Milds gained 0.9% to 403.79 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals fell slightly to 373.47 US cents/lb, and Robustas, in contrast, expanded 2.0% to 215.06 US cents/lb — a sign of ongoing resilience in lower-grade coffee demand, especially for soluble and instant formats.

The differential between Colombian Milds and Other Milds narrowed into negative territory (−0.54 US cents/lb), highlighting how recent weather disruptions in Central America temporarily compressed quality spreads. Meanwhile, arbitrage between London and New York futures markets contracted by 2.9% to 163.84 US cents/lb, signaling closer alignment between Arabica and Robusta futures.

Market volatility, however, crept upward. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP averaged 15.9%, up by more than two percentage points month-on-month — an indication that traders remain reactive to climate events and logistics developments, such as Suez Canal restrictions and persistent container shortages delaying deliveries.

Weather, Tariffs, and Consumption Trends: Forces in Counterbalance

The ICO attributes October’s price stability to a balance between bullish and bearish factors.

On the bullish side, Hurricane Melissa and low rainfall in key Brazilian coffee zones constrained supply, while Typhoon Kalmaegi caused significant crop losses in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Cambodia. The continuation of structural backwardation in futures markets — where near-term contracts are priced higher than future ones — further indicates tight supply for immediate delivery.

At the same time, several bearish influences tempered the market. Among them, signs of slowing consumption in the United States, where rising living costs have eroded discretionary spending. Vehicle repossessions, up 12% year-on-year, highlight a broader financial strain that extends to premium beverage categories. Additionally, a potential reduction in U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee — hinted at by Presidents Donald Trump and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva — has fueled expectations of eased trade tension and lower costs for importers.

The result: prices moved horizontally through the month, neither rallying nor collapsing — a rare moment of equilibrium in a market accustomed to extremes.

Export Flows Reveal a Shifting Coffee Geography

While prices stabilized, trade patterns told a story of transformation. Global green coffee exports reached 9.94 million 60-kg bags in September 2025, down 0.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of negative growth in the 2024/25 coffee year. Total exports across all coffee forms fell by 2.8% to 11.00 million bags.

The Arabica segment showed divergence.

  • Colombian Milds rose by 7.0%, driven by Colombia’s robust output of 14.87 million bags — up 16.5% from the previous year.

  • Other Milds gained 6.1%, with Ethiopia, Mexico, and Nicaragua performing strongly.

  • Brazilian Naturals, however, plunged 21.9% as Brazil entered its “off-year” in the biennial Arabica cycle and faced logistics delays at the port of Santos.

  • Robustas grew 23.0% to 3.67 million bags, powered by Vietnam and Indonesia, whose improved harvests sharply reversed last year’s declines.

These mixed results left the Arabica share of global exports at 63.4%, a marginal drop from 63.7% the previous year — consistent with the long-term average since 2016.

Ethiopia, notably, emerged as a bright spot, expanding exports by 24.4% to 4.91 million bags on the back of an 11% rise in local production and strategic release of stored stocks responding to high international prices.

Regional Divergence: East Rises as South America Contracts

Regional analysis underscores a structural eastward shift in coffee trade:

  • Asia & Oceania: Up 29.3% year-on-year in September and 9.1% for the full coffee year, reaching 44.45 million bags. The surge was led by Vietnam (+7.1%) and Indonesia (+46%), both benefiting from favorable weather and restored yields.

  • Africa: Rose 3.2% in September and 18.6% annually to 19.69 million bags, driven by strong harvests and higher export releases from Ethiopia and Uganda.

  • South America: Fell 13.9% in September and 12.3% across the coffee year to 58.94 million bags, largely due to Brazil’s cyclical downturn and port congestion.

  • Mexico & Central America: Declined 14.6% in September but expanded 7.7% annually to 15.58 million bags, with Mexico and Nicaragua showing resilience.

As a result, South America’s share of global coffee exports slid from 48.4% to 42.5%, while Asia & Oceania’s share climbed to 32.1%, its highest level on record.

This redistribution confirms what many analysts have observed through 2025: a geographic rebalancing of coffee supply chains, with the global center of gravity shifting steadily toward Asia and Africa.

Soluble Coffee Gains Ground

Trade data by form reinforces this transformation. Exports of soluble coffee declined 21.0% in September but rose 5.0% over the full year to 16.72 million bags. This steady annual growth signals a continuing pivot toward value-added coffee formats catering to urban markets and middle-income consumers in producing countries.

By contrast, roasted coffee exports dropped 22.9% year-on-year to 0.68 million bags, reflecting weaker demand for ready-to-drink products in mature economies. Green coffee still dominates global shipments, accounting for 87.5% of total exports.

Global Balance Returns to Surplus

The ICO estimates world production at 177.5 million bags in 2024/25, up 5.2% year-on-year, outpacing consumption, which grew just 1.4% to 175.1 million bags. This modest gap yields a surplus of 2.4 million bags, marking the first positive balance since 2021/22.

The surplus reflects stronger harvests in Asia and Africa, coupled with a stabilization of consumption after the pandemic-era surge. Europe and North America both registered declines in coffee intake (−1.2% and −3.3%, respectively), while consumption in Asia & Oceania rose 7.4%, highlighting a shift in demand patterns alongside production.

A Market at the Crossroads

The October 2025 ICO report captures a market in transition. Prices have steadied, but volatility remains elevated; production is up, yet distribution challenges persist. The eastward drift of coffee trade — reinforced by Indonesia, Vietnam, Ethiopia, and Uganda — may reshape the traditional dominance of Latin American origins in the years ahead.

For producers, this stability offers breathing room after years of disruption. For traders and roasters, it demands agility — balancing sourcing strategies across continents amid ongoing climate and logistical uncertainty.

In short, the coffee world has entered a new phase: from crisis to cautious equilibrium, where resilience and regional diversification define the next chapter of global coffee commerce.

Falling Inventories and Trade Tensions Revive Momentum in Coffee Prices

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Coffee prices rose on Wednesday as shrinking ICE inventories and ongoing trade tensions between the United States and Brazil brought renewed momentum to the global coffee market.

December Arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed up +2.80 (+0.72%), while January Robusta coffee (RMF26) finished +145 (+3.25%) higher.

ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 446,475 bags, while Robusta stocks dropped to a 3.25-month low of 6,111 lots. This sharp decline follows the 50% tariffs imposed by the United States on imports of Brazilian coffee, prompting many American buyers to cancel new contracts. Brazil typically supplies about one-third of the U.S. unroasted coffee, tightening domestic supply.

Earlier this week, forecasts of rain in Brazil temporarily pressured prices. Meteorological agency Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais—the country’s largest Arabica-producing state—received only 0.3 mm of rainfall in the week ending October 24, or just 1% of the historical average. While upcoming rainfall could ease dry conditions, concerns remain about the impact on the critical flowering period for the 2026/27 crop.

Speculation is also mounting that the United States may lift tariffs on Brazilian coffee. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he had a “surprisingly good” meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, adding that a “definitive solution” on trade could be reached within days.

Last week, Arabica coffee prices hit an 8.5-month high amid fears that prolonged drought in Brazil’s growing regions could threaten the 2026/27 harvest. According to Bloomberg’s Brazil Weather Analysis, Minas Gerais has received only 70% of its average monthly rainfall over the past month.

Prices also gained support after the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) raised the probability of a La Niña weather pattern to 71% between October and December, a development that could intensify dry conditions across Brazil and further impact production.

Meanwhile, Robusta coffee faced pressure from an increase in Vietnamese supply. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports rose 10.9% year-on-year between January and September 2025 to 1.23 million metric tons. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) forecasts that 2025/26 coffee production could rise 10% if weather conditions remain favorable, reaching 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags) — a four-year high.

At the global level, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that world coffee exports for the current marketing year (October–August) increased 0.2% year-on-year to 127.92 million bags, indicating adequate global supply.

In Brazil, crop forecasting agency Conab revised its 2025 Arabica coffee crop estimate down by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags, while lowering its total coffee production estimate by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS), global coffee production for 2025/26 is projected to increase 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.68 million bags, with Arabica output expected to decline 1.7% to 97.02 million bags and Robusta production to rise 7.9% to 81.66 million bags. Brazil’s output is projected to increase 0.5% to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s could grow 6.9% to 31 million bags.

Global ending stocks are forecast to rise 4.9% to 22.82 million bags, compared with 21.75 million bags in 2024/25.

Easing Weather Threats in Brazil and Vietnam Weigh on Coffee Prices

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices dropped sharply on Thursday after giving up early gains, with December Arabica down 2.54% and November Robusta falling 3.9%.

The decline came as weather conditions improved in two of the world’s largest coffee-producing countries. Forecasts from Brazil’s Climatempo predicted weekend rains across the coffee-growing regions, while Vietnam’s weather office reduced the likelihood of heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Fengshen over the Central Highlands—its main coffee belt—lessening the risk of crop damage.

In Brazil, prices had earlier rallied on concerns over severe drought during the flowering phase of coffee trees, which is critical for the 2026/27 harvest. The state of Minas Gerais, the country’s largest Arabica-producing region, received only about 70% of its average rainfall in the past month.

In contrast, Robusta prices faced downward pressure following data from Vietnam’s National Statistics Office showing that the country’s coffee exports from January to September 2025 rose +10.9% year-on-year to 1.23 MMT. Production for 2025/26 is forecast to rise +6% to 1.76 MMT (approximately 29.4 million bags), the highest level in four years.

Lower inventories on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) provided only partial support. ICE-monitored Arabica stocks fell to a 19-month low of 465,910 bags, while Robusta stocks hit a 3-month low of 6,141 lots.

Optimism surrounding trade talks between the United States and Brazil also weighed on prices. Reports suggest discussions may lead to the removal of the 50% tariffs currently imposed on Brazilian imports, a move that could ease supply constraints in the U.S. market.

Meanwhile, International Coffee Organization (ICO) data showed that global coffee exports for the current 2024/25 season (October–August) rose +0.2% to 127.92 million bags, indicating ample supply.

Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab lowered its 2025 harvest estimate to 55.2 million bags (-0.9% from May), reducing Arabica output to 35.2 million bags (-4.9%).

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee production in 2025/26 is expected to rise +2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags, driven by a +7.9% increase in Robusta to 81.65 million bags, despite a -1.7% decline in Arabica output.

Trading company Volcafe projects a global Arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26—wider than the 5.5 million-bag shortfall recorded in 2024/25 and marking the fifth consecutive year of supply deficits.

Ethiopia Earns $762.7 Million from Coffee Exports in Q1 FY 2025/26

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Ethiopia generated $762.75 million in revenue from coffee exports during the first quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year, according to the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority. The figure represents a 47% increase, or $243.73 million more than the same period last year, exceeding both export and revenue targets.

Dr. Adugna Debela, Director General of the Authority, announced that the country exported 113,542 tons of coffee between July and September 2025, achieving 75% of the planned export volume of 151,969.41 tons. However, the revenue reached 123% of the quarterly target of $622.5 million, underscoring higher prices and stronger market performance.

Leading Destinations

Germany remained the largest buyer, importing 20,793.14 tons (18%) and contributing $138.18 million (18%) to total earnings. Saudi Arabia followed with 16,088.45 tons (14%), generating $102.18 million (13%), while Belgium ranked third with 13,910.92 tons (12%) and $93.45 million (12%) in revenue.

Other key destinations included China (4th), the United States (5th), South Korea (6th), the United Arab Emirates (7th), Japan (8th), Italy (9th), and the Russian Federation (10th). Together, these top ten markets accounted for 80% of the total export volume and 79% of Ethiopia’s foreign exchange earnings. Compared with the same period of the previous fiscal year, the top destinations saw 3% growth in export volume and a significant 52% increase in revenue.

Key Drivers Behind the Growth

Dr. Adugna attributed the strong performance to multiple strategic initiatives introduced by the Authority, including:

Expanding coffee export markets to new destinations such as China.

Enhancing data quality and modernizing trade monitoring through a centralized coffee database and a secure data exchange system that tracks daily shipments.

Providing traders and stakeholders with monthly global and domestic market updates to support informed decision-making.

Reinforcing supervision to ensure exporters meet delivery timelines and contractual obligations.

Introducing a weekly minimum contract selling price aligned with global market trends.

Strengthening bilateral cooperation and knowledge exchange with countries that have advanced coffee production and management experience.

The Authority emphasized that these measures are part of Ethiopia’s broader effort to maximize export revenues and solidify its position as Africa’s leading coffee producer and exporter.

Brazil’s Timbro Enters Coffee Export Market Amid Sector Shifts

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Brazilian trading company Timbro has officially added coffee to its export portfolio, identifying strong potential for growth in a market reshaped by volatility and record-high prices over the past year.

Timbro, already one of Brazil’s key sugar exporters, also trades a wide range of products including iron ore, cotton, aircraft, cars, and heavy machinery, and manages import operations for Amazon.

“I believe we entered the coffee market at the right time — a very complicated moment for the sector,” said Caio Melles, partner at Timbro, in an interview with Reuters.

The company, which reported 18 billion reais ($3.3 billion) in revenue last year, sees an opportunity to fill the gap left by traditional traders struggling with market volatility. According to Melles, the coffee sector currently lacks players capable of tracking production, pricing, and ensuring delivery, opening new room for agile companies like Timbro.

Although Timbro has long engaged in financial operations with cooperatives and large producers, the 2025 crop year marks its first full physical coffee operation, a move the company had not previously disclosed.

Initially, coffee volumes will remain modest — around 80,000 bags of 60 kg each — as Timbro adopts a cautious entry strategy.

Expansion Beyond Coffee

Founded in 2010 by Jorge Guinle and Bruno Russo, Timbro began as an import-focused firm before rapidly diversifying its portfolio. The company has recorded significant success in sugar, increasing traded volumes from 300,000 tonnes in 2018 to 2 million tonnes in 2024.

In 2025, Timbro expanded its international presence with the opening of an office in Dubai, a strategic hub to strengthen relationships with global clients and enhance efficiency across time zones. It is also extending operations in Asia to “operate on Chinese time,” reflecting China’s importance as a key importer of Brazilian commodities.

Currently, 65–70% of Timbro’s business is export-oriented, while 30–35% focuses on imports.

Diversification into Grains and Minerals

Timbro maintains a smaller footprint in soybean and corn exports, Brazil’s leading agricultural commodities. “We’re doing a few soybean and corn shipments, maybe half a dozen of each this year — still very limited,” Melles said, noting that grain operations require integrated logistics to achieve profitability. The company is now considering logistics partnerships to expand in this segment.

In the steel and minerals division, Timbro expects to export over 1 million tonnes to China and Europe this year and has begun due diligence for new mining assets as part of its expansion strategy.

Exchange rate: $1 = 5.4519 reais

Rain Forecasts in Brazil Pressure Arabica Coffee Prices Despite Tight Global Supply

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Arabica coffee prices fell sharply on Thursday as forecasts of much-needed rainfall in Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions eased concerns about prolonged dryness that had recently pushed prices higher. Meanwhile, robusta prices edged up, supported by steady demand and limited inventories.

On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), December arabica (KCZ25) closed down –7.85 cents (–2.04%) at 297.05 U.S. cents per pound, while November robusta (RMX25) gained +26 points (+0.57%), reaching a three-week high.

Brazil Weather Outlook

According to Brazilian meteorological agency Climatempo, parts of Minas Gerais — the country’s largest arabica-producing region — could receive up to 30 millimeters of rain this week, a “significant amount” expected to promote flowering for the 2026/27 crop cycle. The prospect of rainfall led to profit-taking after recent price gains fueled by drought concerns.

Earlier this week, Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais received only 0.9 millimeters of rain during the week ended October 4 — just 3% of the historical average — raising fears of poor flowering and lower yields before these latest forecasts.

Inventory and Trade Developments

While weather news weighed on prices, global supply signals remained tight. ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 519,534 bags on Thursday, while robusta inventories hit a 2.5-month low of 6,237 lots. The sharp drawdown is partly linked to the 50% tariff on U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee, which has caused American buyers to void new contracts and tightened U.S. supplies. Brazil accounts for around one-third of America’s unroasted coffee imports.

At the same time, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct–Aug) rose by 0.2% year on year to 127.92 million bags, indicating adequate supply in the short term but little room for further tightening.

Production and Export Trends

Brazil’s crop forecaster Conab recently revised down its 2025 arabica crop estimate by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags (from 37 million in May) and cut total coffee output to 55.2 million bags (from 55.7 million). Meanwhile, Cecafé, the Brazilian exporters’ association, said coffee shipments fell 21% in the first seven months of the year to 22.2 million bags and plunged 28% in July alone.

In contrast, Vietnam — the world’s largest producer of robusta — is seeing strong growth. The Vietnam National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports from January to September 2025 rose 10.9% to 1.23 million metric tons, with the 2025/26 harvest expected to increase 6% to 1.76 million tons (29.4 million bags), a four-year high.

Global Outlook

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts global coffee production in 2025/26 to reach a record 178.68 million bags, up 2.5% year on year. Within that total, arabica output is expected to decline 1.7% to 97.02 million bags, while robusta is projected to rise 7.9% to 81.65 million bags. Ending stocks are forecast to increase by 4.9% to 22.82 million bags.

However, trader Volcafe projects a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26 — wider than the 5.5 million bag deficit in 2024/25 — marking the fifth consecutive year of shortfall.

Adding to market uncertainty, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on September 16 raised the probability of a La Niña event between October and December to 71%. Such conditions can cause dry weather in South America and potentially damage Brazil’s next coffee crop, maintaining a tense balance between short-term relief and long-term risk.

Market Summary

For now, traders remain focused on Brazil’s rainfall patterns and their impact on flowering and yields. If forecasted rains fail to materialize, a renewed price rebound could follow as concerns about crop development resurface. Conversely, consistent rainfall in October could alleviate some supply pressures and bring temporary stability to arabica prices.

Tightening ICE Stocks Push Coffee Futures Higher

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Global coffee futures climbed as stocks registered on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) continued to shrink, tightening availability and pushing traders to reprice risk. December Arabica (KCZ25) rose about 1.78%, while November Robusta (RMX25) gained roughly 1.9%, reflecting increased buying interest across both contracts.

The market has been reacting to a notable decline in ICE-tracked inventories: Arabica holdings dropped to roughly 534,665 bags, a low not seen in about 18 months, and Robusta balances fell to near 6,237 lots, the lowest in a few months. A major contributor to tighter U.S. supplies has been new trade barriers: a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports has prompted some American buyers to cancel or delay contracts, and because Brazil supplies about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee, the effect has been pronounced.

Weather worries have compounded supply concerns. Key Arabica zones in Brazil — notably Minas Gerais — received barely measurable rainfall in early October, raising alarms about the crop’s flowering stage for 2026/27. Forecasters have also increased the odds of a La Niña episode through the October–December window, a pattern that can bring drier conditions to Brazil and add further downside pressure to yields.

Still, the global picture contains mixed signals. The International Coffee Organization reported a small year-on-year rise in exports for the current marketing window, pointing to continuing flows of coffee around the world. At the same time, Vietnam’s strong Robusta shipments — up double digits year-to-date — are helping keep robusta markets supplied.

Brazilian crop agencies and exporters have trimmed recent estimates or recorded export slowdowns: domestic forecasts for Arabica output have been revised lower and export volumes in some months have fallen sharply from year-earlier levels. Conversely, U.S. Department of Agriculture outlooks point to a modest increase in total world production for 2025/26, driven largely by a stronger Robusta harvest, while some trade houses continue to flag an Arabica shortfall.

The interplay of shrinking registered stocks, tariff-driven trade shifts and weather risks leaves prices vulnerable to swings — and keeps market attention trained on inventories, crop forecasts and buyer behavior in the coming weeks.

Coffee Prices Retreat on Rain Forecasts for Brazil

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Dubai –  Qahwa World

Coffee prices fell for the second consecutive day on Tuesday as forecasts pointed to rain across key coffee-growing regions in Brazil, easing previous concerns over dry conditions.

December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed down 1.56% at –5.95, while November ICE robusta (RMX25) slipped 1.27% to –57. According to Climatempo, rainfall is expected to spread from São Paulo to Minas Gerais this week, with some regions receiving over 30 mm of precipitation — a welcome relief for farmers during the critical flowering stage of the 2026/27 crop.

The decline follows Monday’s report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) showing that global coffee exports between October 2024 and August 2025 rose 0.2% year-on-year to 127.92 million bags, signaling abundant global supply.

Robusta prices also faced pressure from Vietnam, where the National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports from January to September 2025 surged 10.9% to 1.23 million metric tons (MMT), reinforcing supply-driven headwinds.

Just days earlier, coffee prices had hit two-week highs on worries about dry weather in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais — the nation’s largest arabica region — received only 0.9 mm of rain in the week ending October 4, representing just 3% of the historical average.

Adding to the market’s complexity, U.S. tariffs on Brazilian imports have tightened supply in the American market. The 50% tariff, imposed earlier this year, has led to a sharp drawdown in ICE-monitored inventories, with arabica stocks dropping to a 1.5-year low of 534,665 bags, and robusta stocks to a 2.5-month low of 6,293 lots. Roughly one-third of unroasted coffee consumed in the U.S. originates from Brazil, intensifying the domestic supply strain.

Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) raised the likelihood of a La Niña event in the southern hemisphere to 71% for October–December 2025, potentially signaling drier conditions in Brazil later this year.

Brazil’s national crop forecasting agency Conab recently trimmed its 2025 arabica estimate by 4.9%, down to 35.2 million bags, and revised its total coffee production forecast to 55.2 million bags — a modest decrease from 55.7 million in May.

Earlier, Cecafé, Brazil’s coffee exporters’ council, reported that the country’s July exports fell 28% to 2.7 million bags, bringing total shipments for January–July 2025 down 21% year-on-year to 22.2 million bags.

On the other hand, Vietnam — the world’s largest producer of robusta — is expected to harvest a 4-year-high crop of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags) in the 2025/26 season, up 6% year-on-year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects global coffee production for 2025/26 to grow 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.68 million bags, driven by a 7.9% increase in robusta output to 81.66 million bags, while arabica output is forecast to decline 1.7% to 97.02 million bags. FAS expects ending stocks to climb 4.9% to 22.82 million bags.

Despite these figures, Volcafe foresees a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26 — the fifth consecutive year of shortage — widening from 5.5 million bags last season.

Colombia Records Its Best Coffee Harvest in Over 30 Years

Posted on by Qahwa World

Bogotá — Qahwa World

Colombia, the world’s third-largest coffee producer after Brazil and Vietnam, has celebrated its most productive coffee year in more than three decades. The impressive rebound, driven by favorable weather conditions and extensive crop renewal, brought total production between October 2024 and September 2025 to 14.87 million 60-kg bags, marking a 17% year-on-year increase and exceeding the country’s estimated output of 14 million bags, according to the National Federation of Coffee Growers.

However, the Federation warned that this peak may not continue into the next season.

“We are now beginning the 2025/2026 coffee cycle, which, due to the natural physiological response of the coffee tree and significant rainfall in the first half of the year, is projected to be a year of lower production,” said Federation Manager Germán Bahamón on X.

Colombia, home to about 840,000 hectares of coffee cultivation, supports roughly 540,000 farming families who depend on the crop for their livelihoods.

Strong Output and Export Growth

In September 2025, Colombia’s production of washed Arabica coffee rose 7% year-on-year, reaching 1.14 million bags, slightly below 1.24 million bags in August. Coffee exports increased 6% in September, totaling 1.06 million bags, the Federation reported.

The Colombian statistics agency DANE noted that the value of coffee exports surged 79.7% year-on-year between January and August 2025, reaching $3.67 billion, largely driven by high international coffee prices.

Monthly Coffee Output and Exports (Oct 2024 – Sep 2025)

Month Output (1,000 bags) Exports (1,000 bags)
September 2025 1,142 1,063
August 2025 1,243 1,128
July 2025 1,373 1,150
June 2025 909 1,086
May 2025 819 910
April 2025 703 796
March 2025 1,064 1,268
February 2025 1,361 1,187
January 2025 1,356 1,151
December 2024 1,798 1,282
November 2024 1,761 1,189
October 2024 1,339 1,047
September 2024 1,071 987
Source: National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC), DANE  |  Data in thousand 60-kg bags

These figures illustrate a strong performance throughout the year, particularly in late 2024, when monthly output peaked above 1.7 million bags before stabilizing in 2025. Despite slight fluctuations, both production and exports remained consistently high, reflecting the resilience of Colombia’s coffee sector amid shifting weather patterns and global market volatility.

As Colombia enters a new production cycle, growers remain cautiously optimistic, balancing the recent record harvest with expectations of a natural slowdown in the coming year.