Tag: coffee

IHOP revamps coffee program with new exclusive blend

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

United States-based casual dining chain IHOP has unveiled a major update to its coffee offering, marking the first change to its program in nearly 20 years with the launch of a new proprietary blend across its locations.

Known for its focus on American breakfast cuisine, the brand operates more than 1,300 restaurants globally, with the majority based in the United States.

The newly introduced coffee, branded as the IHOP Coffee Blend, is made from 100% sustainably sourced Arabica beans from Brazil. Alongside the new blend, the company has expanded its iced coffee range with additional flavours including dulce de leche, vanilla, and chocolate.

According to Lawrence Kim, president of Dine Brands Global, the update was driven by customer feedback and evolving consumer preferences.

He noted that the company continues to monitor guest input and market trends, adding that the new coffee is intended to complement IHOP’s value offerings while reinforcing its focus on delivering a high-quality breakfast experience.

Nestlé, ILO launch two-year coffee labour rights project

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Nestlé and the International Labour Organization (ILO) are expanding their long-standing partnership by launching a new, two-year project, “From fair recruitment to worker protection in coffee supply chains,” focused on promoting labour rights in the coffee supply chains of three key sourcing countries: Brazil, Colombia and Mexico.

Building on its standard-setting role and convening power, the ILO will facilitate social dialogue among governments, employers’ and workers’ organizations to identify and address key drivers of decent work deficits and labour-related risks in coffee supply chains. Based on these insights, the project will implement targeted country-level interventions to promote fair recruitment practices and labour rights. Interventions at the country level will also support global knowledge-sharing across the coffee sector.

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Dan Rees, Director, ILO Priority Action Programme on Decent Work in Supply Chains, said: “Coffee production sustains the livelihoods of approximately 20–25 million families worldwide, generating vital income and employment. However, decent work deficits in coffee supply chains persist, particularly among seasonal and migrant workers. Through this project, we aim to advance labour rights and promote decent work and contribute to more sustainable supply chains.”

Antje Shaw, Head of Sustainability for Coffee at Nestlé, said: “Our partnership with the ILO represents a significant step to advancing and promoting human rights in coffee supply chains. By working together, we can progress faster in creating more resilient and inclusive coffee value chains, where workers are treated with dignity.”

You may also be interested in: Nestlé to Reduce Workforce as Part of Cost-Saving Drive

The project is supported by the Nescafé Plan, Nestlé’s global sustainability programme for the brand, and will contribute to the ILO Fair Recruitment Initiative, which supports the promotion and implementation of fair recruitment principles worldwide, as well as to the ILO flagship programme Safety + Health for All, particularly its Vision Zero Fund, which promotes the fundamental right to a safe and healthy working environment in supply chains.

Nestlé is a founding member of the Child Labour Platform (CLP) convened by the ILO and a partner in projects aimed at promoting decent work in agricultural supply chains.

EFICO GROUP: A Century of Responsible Coffee – 2025 Report

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Brussels – Qahwa World

EFICO GROUP has officially published its 2025 Communication on Progress (CoP), reaffirming its commitment to the ten principles of the United Nations Global Compact. The report highlights how the company integrates human rights, labour standards, environmental responsibility, and anti-corruption practices into operations, partnerships, and decision-making across the global coffee value chain.

  • Sustainability at the Core

For EFICO, sustainability is central to its identity. As a specialist in green coffee since 1926, the company embeds responsible practices at every stage — from sourcing and supplier engagement to efficient internal operations. EFICO ensures a consistent supply of high-quality, fully traceable coffee while creating lasting positive impact for producers, communities, and stakeholders.

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In 2025, EFICO strengthened its focus on traceable and sustainable sourcing, collaborating directly with farmers, cooperatives, and local exporters to promote economic resilience and environmental stewardship. By prioritising verified and certified coffees, the group supports practices that protect biodiversity, conserve natural resources, and improve livelihoods in coffee-growing regions.

  • Transparency: The Foundation of Trust

Transparency guides EFICO’s operations. The 2025 CoP provides clear insights into practices, measurable progress, ongoing initiatives, and areas targeted for improvement. By openly sharing successes and challenges, the company ensures decisions are informed, accountable, and aligned with the expectations of partners, clients, and civil society.

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  • The Power of Partnerships

Meaningful change requires collaboration. EFICO maintains long-term relationships with coffee producers, cooperatives, roasters, traders, institutional partners, and civil society organisations. These partnerships deliver practical solutions that empower communities, strengthen the coffee sector, and support environmental protection. Joint projects, knowledge sharing, and co-developed programmes help address challenges like climate change, market volatility, and social inequalities in coffee-growing regions.

  • Walking the Talk: Action and Impact

EFICO emphasises measurable action. The 2025 CoP highlights the company’s approach to monitoring outcomes, reviewing performance indicators, and adapting strategies based on results. This cycle drives improvements in product quality, service excellence, operational efficiency, and sustainability performance. Through transparent reporting, EFICO ensures commitments translate into tangible benefits — from better farming practices and reduced environmental footprints to stronger community development.

  • Celebrating 100 Years and Looking Ahead

2026 marks 100 years of EFICO GROUP in the coffee industry. A century of experience, trusted partnerships, and deep market knowledge has enabled EFICO to consistently deliver high-quality, traceable coffee while supporting producers and communities.

Read Also: Harvesting Coffee and Carbon: A New Chapter in Sustainable Coffee Production

Entering its second century, EFICO remains committed to responsible sourcing, ethical trading, and long-term positive impact. Lessons from the past, combined with forward-looking innovation, position the company to navigate future challenges and opportunities in the evolving coffee landscape.

The full EFICO Group 2025 Communication on Progress is available in English, French, and Spanish. Stakeholders worldwide can access the detailed report to explore the company’s sustainability, transparency, and partnership-driven initiatives.

🔗 Access the report: EFICO 2025 Communication on Progress

  • About EFICO Group

EFICO, along with CUPRIMA, the EFICO Foundation, and SEABRIDGE, forms a dynamic group dedicated to responsible practices in the global coffee industry. Quality, sustainability, and meaningful long-term impact define every aspect of its operations — from green coffee trading and roasting solutions to community-focused projects and efficient logistics.

By combining nearly a century of heritage with a progressive vision, EFICO Group strives to build a sustainable, equitable, and resilient coffee sector for generations to come.

Coffee Sector Adopts Procurement Principles to Strengthen Farmer Livelihoods

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BONN – Qahwa World

Leading players in the global coffee sector have announced two new procurement principles aimed at supporting the long-term economic sustainability of coffee farmers. The principles, developed over nine months by the Global Coffee Platform (GCP), IDH, and Solidaridad, focus on building strategic partnerships and promoting sustainable coffee production, marking a coordinated effort to encourage more responsible sourcing practices across the industry.

The initiative involved 14 major coffee companies, including Caravela, ECOM, illycaffè, JDE Peet’s, Louis Dreyfus Company, Neumann Kaffee Gruppe, Taylors of Harrogate, UCC, and Volcafe. The principles build on insights from the 2024 report The Grounds for Sharing, which examined the challenges and opportunities for farmer resilience in global coffee supply chains.

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  • Shifting Toward Long-Term Collaboration

The first principle, strategic partnerships, emphasizes moving away from short-term transactions and toward longer-term, trust-based collaborations between farmers, traders, roasters, and retailers. According to Annette Pensel, Executive Director of GCP, “Ensuring the long-term economic viability of sustainable coffee farming and overall farmer prosperity is essential for a resilient supply and competitive coffee sector. This requires shared responsibility and a more coordinated approach across the industry.”

The second principle, Sustainable Coffee Production, encourages conditions that allow farmers to recover their costs and invest in long-term improvements to both their livelihoods and farming systems. Mette-Marie Hansen of IDH said, “By embedding longer-term partnerships and sustainable production conditions, companies can contribute to more resilient supply chains and improved economic viability for farmers. At IDH, this work is seen as a foundation for scaling more responsible purchasing practices across the sector.”

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Andrea Olivar from Solidaridad added that the principles are intended to create a framework where all stakeholders in coffee supply chains—farmers, traders, and retailers—benefit from their efforts. “These principles are fundamental to promoting the prosperity of coffee producers while securing supply for the global market,” she said.

The release of the principles highlights the critical role of procurement in shaping the conditions in which farmers operate. While procurement alone cannot solve all challenges facing coffee producers, when combined with supportive public policies, inclusive finance, and improved farm practices, it can significantly enhance farmer resilience and economic outcomes.

Read also: ICO Relaunches Global Coffee Sustainability Platform with Enhanced Tools

The publication Identifying Common Procurement Principles Specific to Coffee is now available, signaling a growing industry commitment to responsible sourcing and long-term sustainability in coffee production.

Ethiopia Bolsters Global Coffee Competitiveness with Landmark Digital Handover

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ADDIS ABABA – Qahwa World

The Ethiopian coffee industry achieved a significant digital milestone on 27 March 2026, as the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority (ECTA) officially concluded the technical handover of the Ethiopian Coffee Traceability and Management System (ECTMS).

Developed in collaboration with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) through its SUVASE project, and with technical implementation by the Ethiopian software firm Vulcan ICT, the ECTMS represents a state-of-the-art digital platform. It aims to deliver end-to-end transparency and traceability for the world’s most iconic coffee origin—home to the ancient forests that gave birth to Arabica coffee.

You may read: Ethiopia Strengthens Coffee Ties with China

  • A Digital Shield Against Stringent Global Regulations

As international sustainability requirements tighten—especially the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)—the ECTMS equips Ethiopia with a critical technological advantage. The system addresses the EUDR’s core demands for geolocation data, proof of deforestation-free production (post-31 December 2020 cutoff), and full supply chain traceability.

The system features three core functionalities:

Precision Geodata Collection: A dedicated mobile application enables field agents and farmers to capture exact GPS coordinates and plot-level details from coffee farms across the country.

Seamless Logistics Tracking: Real-time digital documentation of the entire goods flow, from farm to export, replacing outdated paper-based processes.

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Advanced Deforestation Risk Analysis: Integrated mapping tools assess cultivation areas against deforestation risks, helping ensure compliance with global sustainability standards.

By generating verifiable, auditable data, the ECTMS helps European importers fulfill their due diligence obligations, safeguarding continued access for Ethiopian coffee to one of its largest and most lucrative markets.

  • Efficiency, Trust, and Farmer Empowerment

At the handover workshop, ECTA Director General H.E. Dr. Adugna Debela emphasized the evolving demands of the global coffee market.

“Trustworthy traceability is no longer optional; it is the backbone of Ethiopia’s global competitiveness,” Dr. Adugna stated. “We are committed to leveraging technology to enhance sustainability, ensuring better market access and, ultimately, increased revenue for our farmers. We extend our sincere gratitude to GIZ and Vulcan ICT for their partnership in developing this essential trust mechanism.”

Read Also: Ethiopia and China Strengthen Coffee Sector Cooperation

The ECTMS shifts Ethiopia from traditional paper-based certifications to a modern, user-friendly digital ecosystem. For the millions of smallholder farmers who form the backbone of the sector, this means their coffee’s origin, ethical production, and environmental footprint can now be reliably documented and promoted.

  • Strategic Importance in a Booming Sector

This initiative comes as Ethiopia’s coffee sector continues to post impressive gains. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, the country achieved record exports of approximately 470,000 tons, generating over USD 2.6 billion in revenue. Early performance in 2025/26 has also been strong, with ambitions targeting up to USD 3 billion in coffee earnings for the full year.

Projections for the 2025/26 marketing year estimate production at around 11.6 million 60-kg bags, with exports potentially reaching 7.8 million bags, supported by favorable conditions, tree rejuvenation programs, and policy reforms. By aligning with global expectations, the ECTMS positions Ethiopian coffee—prized for unique flavor profiles from regions like Yirgacheffe, Sidama, and Guji—to command premium prices in both specialty and mainstream segments.

  • Looking Ahead

While the system marks major progress, full-scale adoption remains a challenge due to the fragmented nature of Ethiopia’s roughly four million smallholder farms. ECTA has indicated plans to issue directives for centralizing geolocation data to avoid fragmentation.

As the EUDR enforcement deadline approaches (December 2026 for large operators), full implementation and widespread adoption across cooperatives, exporters, and regional authorities will be key to translating this technological milestone into tangible benefits for farmers and sustained growth for the national economy.

Japanese Study: Caffeic Acid in Coffee Inhibits Colorectal Cancer Cell

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GrowthKyoto – Qahwa World

A Japanese research team has identified the molecular mechanism by which caffeic acid, a polyphenol found in coffee, suppresses the growth of colorectal cancer (CRC) cells.

This discovery, published in Scientific Reports on March 5, 2026, provides a potential scientific basis for epidemiological studies that link regular coffee consumption to a reduced risk of colorectal cancer.

The Molecular Mechanism: Targeting the RPS5-Cyclin D1 Axis While previous research suggested a link between coffee and cancer prevention, the specific components and their biological functions remained unclear.

You may read: Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

Researchers from Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine and Kansai Medical University Hospital focused on caffeic acid, which is produced when chlorogenic acid (abundant in coffee) is hydrolyzed in the intestines.

Key findings from the study include: Direct Binding to RPS5: Using nano-magnetic beads and mass spectrometry, the team identified ribosomal protein S5 (RPS5) as a direct binding target of caffeic acid. High expression of RPS5 is known to be associated with poor prognosis in colorectal cancer patients.

Inducing G1 Cell Cycle Arrest: The research demonstrated that caffeic acid blocks the function of RPS5, which in turn halts the cell cycle of cancer cells at the G1 phase, preventing them from copying their DNA and proliferating.

You may also read: Why Coffee Is One of the Healthiest Drinks

Post-Transcriptional Regulation of Cyclin D1: Both the addition of caffeic acid and the suppression of RPS5 reduced the levels of cyclin D1, a protein critical for driving the cell growth cycle. The study suggests that RPS5 regulates cyclin D1 by controlling the stability of its messenger RNA (mRNA) rather than its promoter activity.

Future Therapeutic Potential Dr. Motoki Watanabe, the lead researcher, stated that these findings reveal a previously unrecognized RPS5-cyclin D1 axis targeted by caffeic acid. This insight could lead to the development of new cancer prevention strategies and treatments, such as optimized derivatives of caffeic acid that more effectively target RPS5.

Important Considerations The researchers noted that this was basic research conducted primarily on cell cultures. They cautioned that the concentrations of caffeic acid required for these effects in a laboratory setting are higher than what is typically achieved through normal coffee consumption. Additionally, since coffee contains other components like caffeine and may not suit everyone’s constitution, excessive consumption is not recommended.

Keurig Dr Pepper Seals $15.7 Billion JDE Peet’s Deal as 96% of Shares Tendered

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BURLINGTON, MA / AMSTERDAM – Qahwa World

In a move that reshapes the global coffee landscape, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) has officially declared its multi-billion-euro takeover bid for JDE Peet’s N.V. unconditional. The announcement comes after an overwhelming majority of shareholders backed the deal, signalling the end of JDE Peet’s era as a standalone public company on the Euronext Amsterdam.

According to a joint statement released Friday, approximately 466.7 million shares were tendered during the initial offer period, representing a staggering 96.22% of the company’s total share capital. The aggregate value of the tendered shares stands at approximately €14.86 billion (approx. $15.7 billion).

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Transaction Finalized

With the 80% minimum acceptance threshold easily surpassed and all other conditions met, the Offeror (Kodiak BidCo B.V.) has confirmed that the deal is now legally binding.

Key Dates to Watch:

  • Settlement Date: Payment to shareholders who participated in the initial offer will be made on April 1, 2026.

  • Post-Closing Acceptance Period: A final window for remaining shareholders to tender their shares will run from March 30 to April 13, 2026.

  • Delisting: JDE Peet’s and KDP will now begin the process of delisting the stock from Euronext Amsterdam “as soon as possible”.

Strategic Integration

The merger brings together KDP’s North American dominance—fuelled by the Keurig brewing system and brands like Dr Pepper and Green Mountain—with JDE Peet’s massive international footprint. JDE Peet’s, which generated nearly €10 billion in sales in 2025, operates in over 100 markets with iconic brands, including Peet’s, L’OR, and Jacobs.

“This is more than a financial transaction; it is the union of two coffee powerhouses,” noted industry analysts. “KDP is now positioned as a truly global titan in both the hot and cold beverage sectors.”

Read also: JDE Peet’s Transfers Shares to Employees Amid Keurig Dr Pepper Takeover Offer

Next Steps for Shareholders

For the 3.78% of shareholders who have not yet tendered their shares, KDP has announced it will initiate statutory buy-out proceedings to acquire 100% ownership. Those who tender during the upcoming post-closing period will receive the same offer price as the initial participants, with payments expected within five business days following the April 13 deadline.

Upon settlement on April 1, a pre-approved reshuffling of the board of directors will take effect, marking the official integration of JDE Peet’s into the KDP corporate structure.

43 Years of Data: How Coffee Affects the Brain and Memory

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Regular consumption of coffee and tea may do more than boost alertness—it could also play a role in maintaining cognitive health over time. This is suggested by findings from a large-scale analysis of more than 130,000 participants followed over a period of 43 years.

Throughout the study, participants regularly reported their dietary habits, health status, and changes in memory and thinking abilities. Over the course of the observation period, more than 11,000 individuals developed dementia. The analysis found that those who consumed caffeinated coffee in moderate amounts—about two to three cups per day—had an approximately 18% lower risk of developing dementia compared to those who rarely or never drank it. They also reported fewer subjective memory complaints and performed better on certain cognitive tests.

Similar patterns were observed among tea drinkers, with one to two cups per day associated with favourable outcomes. In contrast, decaffeinated coffee did not show a clear association with improved cognitive measures, suggesting that caffeine may play an important role in the observed effects.

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Researchers link these findings to compounds found in coffee and tea, including caffeine and polyphenols, which are believed to help reduce inflammation and protect brain cells from damage. Higher levels of caffeine intake did not appear to have harmful effects in this analysis, showing results comparable to moderate consumption.

Further analysis indicated that the association between caffeine intake and cognitive health was consistent regardless of genetic predisposition to dementia, highlighting the potential influence of lifestyle factors. At the same time, researchers emphasise that coffee and tea consumption represents only one part of a broader picture that includes diet, physical activity, sleep, and overall health.

The findings suggest that moderate, regular consumption of coffee or tea may contribute to maintaining cognitive function with age, though it should not be viewed as a standalone solution for preventing dementia.

Read also: Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

Traditional Cafés Decline in Russia

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Moscow – Qahwa World

Russia’s coffee landscape is undergoing a noticeable shift. While coffee consumption in the country remains relatively stable, the number of traditional coffee shops has been shrinking as consumer habits evolve and competition intensifies.

Data from 2GIS shows that the number of classic cafés across Russia declined by 13% over the past year, reaching approximately 7,700 locations by February 2026.

The decline has been especially visible in the country’s largest urban centers. In Moscow, the number of cafés fell by 12% to about 2,600, while Saint Petersburg experienced an even sharper drop of 23%, leaving roughly 1,600 establishments.

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At the same time, other coffee formats are expanding. The number of takeaway coffee points increased by about 4%, reaching around 9,300 locations, indicating that faster and more convenient service models are gaining ground among consumers.

  • Changing daily routines

Coffee culture in Russia has grown rapidly over the past decade, reflecting a broader global expansion of café culture. However, recent consumer behavior suggests that some daily habits are shifting.

  • According to Ramaz Chanturia, director general of Roschaikofe, many consumers have begun practicing what he describes as “reasonable savings.” Some customers who once bought coffee on the way to work now prepare their drinks at home more frequently.
  • More than just the price of beans

The price of a cup of coffee in a café reflects more than the cost of raw coffee. Customers are also paying for a range of services and operational expenses, including rent, equipment, utilities, staff salaries, and the atmosphere that cafés provide.

Read also: Russia’s Imports of Brazilian Coffee Fall to Six-Month Low

These costs can place pressure on independent coffee shops, particularly when competition from lower-priced alternatives increases.

  • Retail becomes a coffee competitor

Another factor reshaping the market is the growing role of retail chains in coffee sales. Large supermarket operators are expanding ready-to-drink coffee offerings and installing coffee stations or café-style corners inside their stores.

According to Stanislav Bogdanov, chairman of the presidium of the Association of Retail Companies, demand for ready-made coffee in retail continues to grow steadily.

Industry estimates suggest that hot beverages account for up to 3% of the fast-moving consumer goods market, with coffee becoming one of the category’s key growth drivers in recent years.

Read also: Russian Instant Coffee Exports Rise 28% to $366 Million

Retailers benefit from high customer traffic, competitive prices, and convenient locations. For many consumers, buying a cup of coffee during a grocery trip is becoming an easy alternative to visiting a traditional café.

A changing coffee ecosystem

The decline in traditional cafés does not necessarily indicate a fall in coffee drinking in Russia. Instead, it highlights a transformation in how and where people consume coffee.

As takeaway formats, home brewing, and retail coffee points continue to expand, the country’s coffee market is gradually shifting toward convenience-driven models—reshaping the role of the traditional café within Russia’s evolving coffee culture.

Global Coffee Exports Surge Amid Asian Growth and Latin American Decline

Posted on by Qahwa World

LONDON – Qahwa World

The latest report from the International Coffee Organization reveals profound shifts in the global trade landscape, as total coffee exports across all forms surged to 12.62 million bags in January, marking a 13.7% increase compared to the same month last year. This growth was primarily driven by an exceptional performance in the Robusta sector, which successfully offset a significant contraction in shipments from major producers in South America, reflecting a fundamental change in the global supply structure.

Data highlights a dominant performance by the Asia & Oceania region, which achieved a 54.4% growth in exports. Vietnam led this surge with 3.99 million bags exported—a 73.3% annual increase—as the country accelerated shipments to clear inventories ahead of national holidays. Africa also maintained a strong presence with 14.2% growth, notably led by Ethiopia, which saw a 51.5% jump in shipments, confirming the recovery of supply chains and the continent’s ability to capture new market shares.

You may Read: ICO February 2026 Report: Has the Inflationary Wave Receded?

In contrast, South America faced a different reality, with exports declining by 21.3%. This downturn was directly impacted by a drop in shipments from Brazil and Colombia, ranging between 19% and 22%, following unfavorable localized weather conditions. This trend extended to Mexico and Central America, which recorded a 4.2% decrease, with Honduras suffering a sharp 28.7% drop in shipments due to logistical challenges and seasonal labor shortages still hindering the pace of exports in that region.

By category, Robusta exports grew by a staggering 49.1% to reach 5.25 million bags, accounting for a larger share of the global green bean trade at 48.4%. Furthermore, the data reveals a strategic shift toward value addition in origin countries, as exports of roasted coffee jumped by 25.2%. This indicates a growing desire among producers to move beyond raw material exports toward local manufacturing to maximize economic returns amidst the rapid changes in the global coffee sector.

ICO February 2026 Report: Has the Inflationary Wave Receded?

Posted on by Qahwa World

LONDON – Qahwa World

The latest monthly report issued by the International Coffee Organization for February 2026 has revealed a dramatic shift that could redefine the global coffee market dynamics for years to come. After a prolonged period of scarcity and record-high prices that strained both suppliers and consumers, the report announced a sharp decline in price indicators. This shift is driven by a “tsunami” of anticipated supplies from Brazil and Vietnam, officially placing the market on the verge of a historic surplus that ends a three-year cycle of consecutive deficits.

  • Price Earthquake

In February, the Organization’s Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 267.57 US cents/lb, representing a sharp 9.9% decrease compared to January. This decline is not merely a transient fluctuation but reflects massive selling pressure in global exchanges; the index opened the month at a peak of 289.47 cents and slid to 248.86 cents by month-end, the lowest level recorded since August 2025.

You may read: Global Coffee Market Roadmap—January 2026

None of the major categories were immune to this downward trend, with the Organization’s statistical analysis showing the following results:

  • Colombian Milds: Declined by 11.0% to settle at 330.89 cents.
  • Other Milds: Retracted by 11.7% to reach 321.35 cents.
  • Brazilian Naturals: Shrank by 10.2% to reach 308.62 cents.

Robustas: Proved most resilient, declining by only 6.6%. Experts attribute this to global roasters increasing the proportion of Robusta in their commercial blends as a strategic solution to reduce overall costs, creating sustainable demand that stabilized its price levels.

  • Brazilian and Vietnamese Winds

Organization analysts believe the fundamental reason behind this “price correction” lies in the optimistic forecasts from Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB), which raised expectations for the 2026/27 crop to 66.2 million bags, a massive 17.1% annual increase.

These forecasts were supported by a tangible improvement in weather conditions and regular, heavy rainfall in key growing regions such as Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, as well as improved outlooks in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. These factors prompted major international financial institutions to predict a global surplus of up to 8.64 million bags, leading large investment funds to liquidate long positions and pivot toward selling. This explains the 20.7% shrinkage in the arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets.

  • Global Trade Map

Regarding exports, January 2026 saw the shipment of 10.85 million bags of green beans, a 12.7% increase over January 2025. However, behind this headline figure lie geographical disparities reflecting specific regional logistical and production challenges:

Asia & Oceania: The region achieved a staggering 51.8% growth, with Vietnam alone exporting 3.99 million bags in January, capitalizing on accelerated shipping ahead of the Lunar New Year (Tet) holiday.

Africa: Continued its recovery with 14.2% growth. Ethiopia stood out as a strategic player with a 51.5% increase in shipments, while Uganda grew by 11.2%, reflecting a significant improvement in the continent’s internal supply chains.

South America: Recorded a surprising 21.3% decline. The biggest shock was in Colombia, where production plummeted by 34.1% due to unfavorable localized weather fluctuations, negatively impacting the flow of premium Colombian Milds to global markets.

Mexico & Central America: Registered a slight 4.2% decrease, with Honduras suffering a sharp 28.7% drop in exports due to seasonal labor shortages and logistical hurdles.

Read Also: ICO Releases Global Coffee Market Report – December 2025

  • Stocks and Processed Coffee

For the first time in months, the International Coffee Organization report indicates a slight improvement in certified stocks. New York (ICE) stocks rose by 11.4% to 0.52 million bags, while London stocks increased by 3.1% to 0.76 million bags. This rise provides a relative “safety cushion” against sudden climatic or political shocks.

A notable phenomenon in the report was the export of “Roasted Coffee,” which jumped by 25.2%. This indicates a strategic shift in origin countries toward local processing to add value to their products rather than relying solely on raw bean exports. Meanwhile, soluble coffee exports grew at a steady pace of 1.9%.

  • The Retail Paradox

The report highlighted a crucial point affecting the real economy: despite the collapse of raw coffee prices in global exchanges, retail prices in the United States jumped by 18.3% year-on-year in January 2026. This persistent inflation, totaling 47% cumulatively over five years, is mainly due to rising logistics, energy, and labor costs in consuming countries. Additionally, accumulating consumer debt is beginning to weigh on purchasing power, which may threaten the expected 1.7% growth in global consumption.

  • Future Outlook

We are entering a phase of total “reset” in coffee market balances. The market is currently moving to narrow the global deficit to just 0.4 million bags this season, paving the way for the anticipated historic surplus next year. For investors, roasters, and consumers, the February 2026 report serves as the “final whistle” for the era of frantic speculation and chronic shortages, signaling the start of a price stability phase led by Brazilian production abundance and Vietnamese logistical efficiency.

Coffee Prices Drop on Brazil Weather and Rising Stocks

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee markets fell on Wednesday amid favorable weather forecasts in Brazil and rising inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

May arabica futures (KCK26) were down 8.70 points (-2.94%), while May ICE robusta (RMK26) declined 137 points (-3.71%). Showers expected in key Brazilian coffee-growing regions supported the recent price drop.

ICE data shows that arabica inventories, which fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags in November, recovered to a five-month high of 564,626 bags on Tuesday. Robusta inventories also rose to a 3.5-month peak before falling slightly to 4,563 lots as of Wednesday.

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Coffee prices had partially retraced last week’s rally triggered by the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which increased global shipping rates, fuel, and insurance costs.

Brazil’s exports also influenced the market. According to Cecafe, February green coffee shipments fell by 27% year-on-year, while the Trade Ministry reported a 17.4% decline to 142,000 metric tons. Conversely, recent rains in Minas Gerais—the country’s largest arabica-producing state—amounted to 14.9 mm last week, about 35% of the historical average, offering some support to crop expectations.

Earlier in February, coffee prices hit multi-month lows amid forecasts of a record Brazilian crop. Conab projected Brazil’s 2026 coffee output at 66.2 million bags, with arabica rising 23.2% to 44.1 million bags and robusta up 6.3% to 22.1 million bags. Global production for 2026/27 is expected to reach 180 million bags, according to Rabobank.

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Vietnam’s coffee exports further pressured robusta prices. The National Statistics Office reported a 14% year-on-year rise to 366,000 MT for January–February 2026, while 2025 exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million MT. Production in 2025/26 is forecast to reach 1.76 million MT, a four-year high.

Despite these factors, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) noted a slight 0.3% year-on-year decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects 2025/26 global production at 178.848 million bags, with arabica down 4.7% to 95.515 million bags and robusta up 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. Brazil’s production is expected to fall 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam rises 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks are forecast to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

Analysts say the combination of Brazilian rainfall, rising ICE inventories, and record production in Vietnam is likely to maintain downward pressure on coffee prices in the near term.