Tag: coffee

Japanese Study: Caffeic Acid in Coffee Inhibits Colorectal Cancer Cell

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GrowthKyoto – Qahwa World

A Japanese research team has identified the molecular mechanism by which caffeic acid, a polyphenol found in coffee, suppresses the growth of colorectal cancer (CRC) cells.

This discovery, published in Scientific Reports on March 5, 2026, provides a potential scientific basis for epidemiological studies that link regular coffee consumption to a reduced risk of colorectal cancer.

The Molecular Mechanism: Targeting the RPS5-Cyclin D1 Axis While previous research suggested a link between coffee and cancer prevention, the specific components and their biological functions remained unclear.

You may read: Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

Researchers from Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine and Kansai Medical University Hospital focused on caffeic acid, which is produced when chlorogenic acid (abundant in coffee) is hydrolyzed in the intestines.

Key findings from the study include: Direct Binding to RPS5: Using nano-magnetic beads and mass spectrometry, the team identified ribosomal protein S5 (RPS5) as a direct binding target of caffeic acid. High expression of RPS5 is known to be associated with poor prognosis in colorectal cancer patients.

Inducing G1 Cell Cycle Arrest: The research demonstrated that caffeic acid blocks the function of RPS5, which in turn halts the cell cycle of cancer cells at the G1 phase, preventing them from copying their DNA and proliferating.

You may also read: Why Coffee Is One of the Healthiest Drinks

Post-Transcriptional Regulation of Cyclin D1: Both the addition of caffeic acid and the suppression of RPS5 reduced the levels of cyclin D1, a protein critical for driving the cell growth cycle. The study suggests that RPS5 regulates cyclin D1 by controlling the stability of its messenger RNA (mRNA) rather than its promoter activity.

Future Therapeutic Potential Dr. Motoki Watanabe, the lead researcher, stated that these findings reveal a previously unrecognized RPS5-cyclin D1 axis targeted by caffeic acid. This insight could lead to the development of new cancer prevention strategies and treatments, such as optimized derivatives of caffeic acid that more effectively target RPS5.

Important Considerations The researchers noted that this was basic research conducted primarily on cell cultures. They cautioned that the concentrations of caffeic acid required for these effects in a laboratory setting are higher than what is typically achieved through normal coffee consumption. Additionally, since coffee contains other components like caffeine and may not suit everyone’s constitution, excessive consumption is not recommended.

Keurig Dr Pepper Seals $15.7 Billion JDE Peet’s Deal as 96% of Shares Tendered

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BURLINGTON, MA / AMSTERDAM – Qahwa World

In a move that reshapes the global coffee landscape, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) has officially declared its multi-billion-euro takeover bid for JDE Peet’s N.V. unconditional. The announcement comes after an overwhelming majority of shareholders backed the deal, signalling the end of JDE Peet’s era as a standalone public company on the Euronext Amsterdam.

According to a joint statement released Friday, approximately 466.7 million shares were tendered during the initial offer period, representing a staggering 96.22% of the company’s total share capital. The aggregate value of the tendered shares stands at approximately €14.86 billion (approx. $15.7 billion).

You may Read: Keurig Dr Pepper Launches €31.85-Per-Share Offer for JDE Peet’s

Transaction Finalized

With the 80% minimum acceptance threshold easily surpassed and all other conditions met, the Offeror (Kodiak BidCo B.V.) has confirmed that the deal is now legally binding.

Key Dates to Watch:

  • Settlement Date: Payment to shareholders who participated in the initial offer will be made on April 1, 2026.

  • Post-Closing Acceptance Period: A final window for remaining shareholders to tender their shares will run from March 30 to April 13, 2026.

  • Delisting: JDE Peet’s and KDP will now begin the process of delisting the stock from Euronext Amsterdam “as soon as possible”.

Strategic Integration

The merger brings together KDP’s North American dominance—fuelled by the Keurig brewing system and brands like Dr Pepper and Green Mountain—with JDE Peet’s massive international footprint. JDE Peet’s, which generated nearly €10 billion in sales in 2025, operates in over 100 markets with iconic brands, including Peet’s, L’OR, and Jacobs.

“This is more than a financial transaction; it is the union of two coffee powerhouses,” noted industry analysts. “KDP is now positioned as a truly global titan in both the hot and cold beverage sectors.”

Read also: JDE Peet’s Transfers Shares to Employees Amid Keurig Dr Pepper Takeover Offer

Next Steps for Shareholders

For the 3.78% of shareholders who have not yet tendered their shares, KDP has announced it will initiate statutory buy-out proceedings to acquire 100% ownership. Those who tender during the upcoming post-closing period will receive the same offer price as the initial participants, with payments expected within five business days following the April 13 deadline.

Upon settlement on April 1, a pre-approved reshuffling of the board of directors will take effect, marking the official integration of JDE Peet’s into the KDP corporate structure.

43 Years of Data: How Coffee Affects the Brain and Memory

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Regular consumption of coffee and tea may do more than boost alertness—it could also play a role in maintaining cognitive health over time. This is suggested by findings from a large-scale analysis of more than 130,000 participants followed over a period of 43 years.

Throughout the study, participants regularly reported their dietary habits, health status, and changes in memory and thinking abilities. Over the course of the observation period, more than 11,000 individuals developed dementia. The analysis found that those who consumed caffeinated coffee in moderate amounts—about two to three cups per day—had an approximately 18% lower risk of developing dementia compared to those who rarely or never drank it. They also reported fewer subjective memory complaints and performed better on certain cognitive tests.

Similar patterns were observed among tea drinkers, with one to two cups per day associated with favourable outcomes. In contrast, decaffeinated coffee did not show a clear association with improved cognitive measures, suggesting that caffeine may play an important role in the observed effects.

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Researchers link these findings to compounds found in coffee and tea, including caffeine and polyphenols, which are believed to help reduce inflammation and protect brain cells from damage. Higher levels of caffeine intake did not appear to have harmful effects in this analysis, showing results comparable to moderate consumption.

Further analysis indicated that the association between caffeine intake and cognitive health was consistent regardless of genetic predisposition to dementia, highlighting the potential influence of lifestyle factors. At the same time, researchers emphasise that coffee and tea consumption represents only one part of a broader picture that includes diet, physical activity, sleep, and overall health.

The findings suggest that moderate, regular consumption of coffee or tea may contribute to maintaining cognitive function with age, though it should not be viewed as a standalone solution for preventing dementia.

Read also: Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

Traditional Cafés Decline in Russia

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Moscow – Qahwa World

Russia’s coffee landscape is undergoing a noticeable shift. While coffee consumption in the country remains relatively stable, the number of traditional coffee shops has been shrinking as consumer habits evolve and competition intensifies.

Data from 2GIS shows that the number of classic cafés across Russia declined by 13% over the past year, reaching approximately 7,700 locations by February 2026.

The decline has been especially visible in the country’s largest urban centers. In Moscow, the number of cafés fell by 12% to about 2,600, while Saint Petersburg experienced an even sharper drop of 23%, leaving roughly 1,600 establishments.

You may read: Russia Updates Instant Coffee Standards for the First Time in 32 Years

At the same time, other coffee formats are expanding. The number of takeaway coffee points increased by about 4%, reaching around 9,300 locations, indicating that faster and more convenient service models are gaining ground among consumers.

  • Changing daily routines

Coffee culture in Russia has grown rapidly over the past decade, reflecting a broader global expansion of café culture. However, recent consumer behavior suggests that some daily habits are shifting.

  • According to Ramaz Chanturia, director general of Roschaikofe, many consumers have begun practicing what he describes as “reasonable savings.” Some customers who once bought coffee on the way to work now prepare their drinks at home more frequently.
  • More than just the price of beans

The price of a cup of coffee in a café reflects more than the cost of raw coffee. Customers are also paying for a range of services and operational expenses, including rent, equipment, utilities, staff salaries, and the atmosphere that cafés provide.

Read also: Russia’s Imports of Brazilian Coffee Fall to Six-Month Low

These costs can place pressure on independent coffee shops, particularly when competition from lower-priced alternatives increases.

  • Retail becomes a coffee competitor

Another factor reshaping the market is the growing role of retail chains in coffee sales. Large supermarket operators are expanding ready-to-drink coffee offerings and installing coffee stations or café-style corners inside their stores.

According to Stanislav Bogdanov, chairman of the presidium of the Association of Retail Companies, demand for ready-made coffee in retail continues to grow steadily.

Industry estimates suggest that hot beverages account for up to 3% of the fast-moving consumer goods market, with coffee becoming one of the category’s key growth drivers in recent years.

Read also: Russian Instant Coffee Exports Rise 28% to $366 Million

Retailers benefit from high customer traffic, competitive prices, and convenient locations. For many consumers, buying a cup of coffee during a grocery trip is becoming an easy alternative to visiting a traditional café.

A changing coffee ecosystem

The decline in traditional cafés does not necessarily indicate a fall in coffee drinking in Russia. Instead, it highlights a transformation in how and where people consume coffee.

As takeaway formats, home brewing, and retail coffee points continue to expand, the country’s coffee market is gradually shifting toward convenience-driven models—reshaping the role of the traditional café within Russia’s evolving coffee culture.

Global Coffee Exports Surge Amid Asian Growth and Latin American Decline

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LONDON – Qahwa World

The latest report from the International Coffee Organization reveals profound shifts in the global trade landscape, as total coffee exports across all forms surged to 12.62 million bags in January, marking a 13.7% increase compared to the same month last year. This growth was primarily driven by an exceptional performance in the Robusta sector, which successfully offset a significant contraction in shipments from major producers in South America, reflecting a fundamental change in the global supply structure.

Data highlights a dominant performance by the Asia & Oceania region, which achieved a 54.4% growth in exports. Vietnam led this surge with 3.99 million bags exported—a 73.3% annual increase—as the country accelerated shipments to clear inventories ahead of national holidays. Africa also maintained a strong presence with 14.2% growth, notably led by Ethiopia, which saw a 51.5% jump in shipments, confirming the recovery of supply chains and the continent’s ability to capture new market shares.

You may Read: ICO February 2026 Report: Has the Inflationary Wave Receded?

In contrast, South America faced a different reality, with exports declining by 21.3%. This downturn was directly impacted by a drop in shipments from Brazil and Colombia, ranging between 19% and 22%, following unfavorable localized weather conditions. This trend extended to Mexico and Central America, which recorded a 4.2% decrease, with Honduras suffering a sharp 28.7% drop in shipments due to logistical challenges and seasonal labor shortages still hindering the pace of exports in that region.

By category, Robusta exports grew by a staggering 49.1% to reach 5.25 million bags, accounting for a larger share of the global green bean trade at 48.4%. Furthermore, the data reveals a strategic shift toward value addition in origin countries, as exports of roasted coffee jumped by 25.2%. This indicates a growing desire among producers to move beyond raw material exports toward local manufacturing to maximize economic returns amidst the rapid changes in the global coffee sector.

ICO February 2026 Report: Has the Inflationary Wave Receded?

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LONDON – Qahwa World

The latest monthly report issued by the International Coffee Organization for February 2026 has revealed a dramatic shift that could redefine the global coffee market dynamics for years to come. After a prolonged period of scarcity and record-high prices that strained both suppliers and consumers, the report announced a sharp decline in price indicators. This shift is driven by a “tsunami” of anticipated supplies from Brazil and Vietnam, officially placing the market on the verge of a historic surplus that ends a three-year cycle of consecutive deficits.

  • Price Earthquake

In February, the Organization’s Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 267.57 US cents/lb, representing a sharp 9.9% decrease compared to January. This decline is not merely a transient fluctuation but reflects massive selling pressure in global exchanges; the index opened the month at a peak of 289.47 cents and slid to 248.86 cents by month-end, the lowest level recorded since August 2025.

You may read: Global Coffee Market Roadmap—January 2026

None of the major categories were immune to this downward trend, with the Organization’s statistical analysis showing the following results:

  • Colombian Milds: Declined by 11.0% to settle at 330.89 cents.
  • Other Milds: Retracted by 11.7% to reach 321.35 cents.
  • Brazilian Naturals: Shrank by 10.2% to reach 308.62 cents.

Robustas: Proved most resilient, declining by only 6.6%. Experts attribute this to global roasters increasing the proportion of Robusta in their commercial blends as a strategic solution to reduce overall costs, creating sustainable demand that stabilized its price levels.

  • Brazilian and Vietnamese Winds

Organization analysts believe the fundamental reason behind this “price correction” lies in the optimistic forecasts from Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB), which raised expectations for the 2026/27 crop to 66.2 million bags, a massive 17.1% annual increase.

These forecasts were supported by a tangible improvement in weather conditions and regular, heavy rainfall in key growing regions such as Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, as well as improved outlooks in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. These factors prompted major international financial institutions to predict a global surplus of up to 8.64 million bags, leading large investment funds to liquidate long positions and pivot toward selling. This explains the 20.7% shrinkage in the arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets.

  • Global Trade Map

Regarding exports, January 2026 saw the shipment of 10.85 million bags of green beans, a 12.7% increase over January 2025. However, behind this headline figure lie geographical disparities reflecting specific regional logistical and production challenges:

Asia & Oceania: The region achieved a staggering 51.8% growth, with Vietnam alone exporting 3.99 million bags in January, capitalizing on accelerated shipping ahead of the Lunar New Year (Tet) holiday.

Africa: Continued its recovery with 14.2% growth. Ethiopia stood out as a strategic player with a 51.5% increase in shipments, while Uganda grew by 11.2%, reflecting a significant improvement in the continent’s internal supply chains.

South America: Recorded a surprising 21.3% decline. The biggest shock was in Colombia, where production plummeted by 34.1% due to unfavorable localized weather fluctuations, negatively impacting the flow of premium Colombian Milds to global markets.

Mexico & Central America: Registered a slight 4.2% decrease, with Honduras suffering a sharp 28.7% drop in exports due to seasonal labor shortages and logistical hurdles.

Read Also: ICO Releases Global Coffee Market Report – December 2025

  • Stocks and Processed Coffee

For the first time in months, the International Coffee Organization report indicates a slight improvement in certified stocks. New York (ICE) stocks rose by 11.4% to 0.52 million bags, while London stocks increased by 3.1% to 0.76 million bags. This rise provides a relative “safety cushion” against sudden climatic or political shocks.

A notable phenomenon in the report was the export of “Roasted Coffee,” which jumped by 25.2%. This indicates a strategic shift in origin countries toward local processing to add value to their products rather than relying solely on raw bean exports. Meanwhile, soluble coffee exports grew at a steady pace of 1.9%.

  • The Retail Paradox

The report highlighted a crucial point affecting the real economy: despite the collapse of raw coffee prices in global exchanges, retail prices in the United States jumped by 18.3% year-on-year in January 2026. This persistent inflation, totaling 47% cumulatively over five years, is mainly due to rising logistics, energy, and labor costs in consuming countries. Additionally, accumulating consumer debt is beginning to weigh on purchasing power, which may threaten the expected 1.7% growth in global consumption.

  • Future Outlook

We are entering a phase of total “reset” in coffee market balances. The market is currently moving to narrow the global deficit to just 0.4 million bags this season, paving the way for the anticipated historic surplus next year. For investors, roasters, and consumers, the February 2026 report serves as the “final whistle” for the era of frantic speculation and chronic shortages, signaling the start of a price stability phase led by Brazilian production abundance and Vietnamese logistical efficiency.

Coffee Prices Drop on Brazil Weather and Rising Stocks

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee markets fell on Wednesday amid favorable weather forecasts in Brazil and rising inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

May arabica futures (KCK26) were down 8.70 points (-2.94%), while May ICE robusta (RMK26) declined 137 points (-3.71%). Showers expected in key Brazilian coffee-growing regions supported the recent price drop.

ICE data shows that arabica inventories, which fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags in November, recovered to a five-month high of 564,626 bags on Tuesday. Robusta inventories also rose to a 3.5-month peak before falling slightly to 4,563 lots as of Wednesday.

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Coffee prices had partially retraced last week’s rally triggered by the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which increased global shipping rates, fuel, and insurance costs.

Brazil’s exports also influenced the market. According to Cecafe, February green coffee shipments fell by 27% year-on-year, while the Trade Ministry reported a 17.4% decline to 142,000 metric tons. Conversely, recent rains in Minas Gerais—the country’s largest arabica-producing state—amounted to 14.9 mm last week, about 35% of the historical average, offering some support to crop expectations.

Earlier in February, coffee prices hit multi-month lows amid forecasts of a record Brazilian crop. Conab projected Brazil’s 2026 coffee output at 66.2 million bags, with arabica rising 23.2% to 44.1 million bags and robusta up 6.3% to 22.1 million bags. Global production for 2026/27 is expected to reach 180 million bags, according to Rabobank.

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Vietnam’s coffee exports further pressured robusta prices. The National Statistics Office reported a 14% year-on-year rise to 366,000 MT for January–February 2026, while 2025 exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million MT. Production in 2025/26 is forecast to reach 1.76 million MT, a four-year high.

Despite these factors, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) noted a slight 0.3% year-on-year decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects 2025/26 global production at 178.848 million bags, with arabica down 4.7% to 95.515 million bags and robusta up 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. Brazil’s production is expected to fall 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam rises 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks are forecast to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

Analysts say the combination of Brazilian rainfall, rising ICE inventories, and record production in Vietnam is likely to maintain downward pressure on coffee prices in the near term.

FAO Welcomes UN Resolution Establishing International Coffee Day on October 1

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Dubai – Qahwa World

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has welcomed a new resolution adopted by the United Nations General Assembly proclaiming October 1 as International Coffee Day, marking a significant step toward recognizing coffee’s global economic, social, and cultural importance.

The resolution, approved on 10 March 2026 in New York, highlights the historical and cultural role of coffee and its lasting influence on societies worldwide. It acknowledges that coffee has evolved from its origins into a globally traded agricultural commodity that sustains communities while also serving as a symbol of social interaction, cultural identity, and everyday tradition across generations.

You may Read: UN Officially Designates 1 October as International Coffee Day 

  • Coffee and global development

The United Nations resolution underscores the contribution of the coffee sector to several key global development priorities. Among them are ending hunger, reducing extreme poverty, empowering women, and promoting decent work and economic growth, all of which are central to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

According to Qu Dongyu, coffee represents far more than a popular beverage.

“Coffee is more than a drink; it is a globally traded commodity—from beans to coffee service—that sustains the livelihoods of millions of farming households and connects rural communities to markets around the world,” he said. “Recognizing the value of the coffee sector will raise awareness of its socio-economic importance and strengthen its contribution to eradicating poverty.”

You may read: International Coffee Day: How It Started and Why the World Celebrates 

  • A sector supporting millions

Coffee remains one of the most widely consumed beverages worldwide. Global per-capita consumption has grown by about 1.2 percent annually over the past decade, reflecting steady demand across international markets.

The sector supports the livelihoods of around 25 million coffee farmers, while employment extends across the entire value chain—from cultivation and processing to trading, roasting, and retail. Altogether, the global coffee industry generates more than 200 billion dollars in annual revenue.

Coffee also ranks among the world’s most traded agricultural commodities. In 2024, global production surpassed 11 million tonnes, with approximately 8 million tonnes traded internationally. That same year, the estimated value of global coffee production reached nearly 25 billion dollars, while international trade in coffee beans totaled about 34 billion dollars.

Read also: International Coffee Day: A Beverage’s Journey from Yemen to the World 

  • Vital exports for developing economies

For many low-income countries, coffee exports remain a critical source of foreign currency earnings.

In 2024, coffee accounted for 27.9 percent of total merchandise exports in Ethiopia, 20.1 percent in Uganda, and 19.5 percent in Burundi. In both Ethiopia and Uganda, revenues from coffee exports exceeded national food import bills, while in Burundi they represented nearly one-fifth of the country’s food import costs.

During the same year, Brazil and Viet Nam were the world’s leading coffee exporters, while the European Union and the United States remained the largest import markets.

  • FAO’s role in strengthening the coffee sector

FAO works with coffee-producing countries through a range of initiatives designed to strengthen sustainability, productivity, and farmer livelihoods.

One of the organization’s priorities is helping producers adapt to the growing impacts of climate change. Through programs such as Farmer Field Schools, FAO supports pest management strategies and the conservation of traditional coffee systems, including projects in Panama. Additional initiatives promote agroforestry systems and climate-resilient coffee varieties in East Africa, while cooperative development programs are helping strengthen rural economies in countries such as Cuba.

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The organization is also assisting producers in responding to evolving market requirements. As international buyers increasingly demand traceability and compliance with sustainability standards, FAO is working with governments and producers in countries including Honduras, Guatemala, and Uganda to establish stronger traceability systems and align national policies with global frameworks. These efforts aim to mobilize investment benefiting more than 200,000 smallholder farmers.

Through its Investment Centre and initiatives such as the Hand-in-Hand Initiative, FAO is also supporting financing mechanisms that improve efficiency and increase farmer incomes. Projects in Brazil, Costa Rica, and Honduras, implemented with partners including the World Bank, are helping strengthen the long-term resilience of coffee farming systems. In El Salvador, FAO has supported the development of a comprehensive national coffee strategy.

  • A global platform for the coffee community

With the establishment of International Coffee Day under the UN system, FAO has been invited to coordinate the annual observance in collaboration with relevant organizations, particularly the International Coffee Organization.

The new international day is expected to serve as a global platform for dialogue, cooperation, and knowledge-sharing across the coffee value chain. By highlighting both the opportunities and the challenges facing producers, the initiative aims to strengthen international commitment to a sustainable, inclusive, and resilient coffee sector that contributes to rural development and global food security.

 

Global Study Maps the “Carbon Footprint” of Latin American Coffee

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Dubai – Qahwa World

A comprehensive international study released in March 2026 has revealed a sharp disparity in the carbon footprint of coffee production across five major Latin American nations. This landmark report establishes the first precise scientific baseline—using primary data collected directly from farms—to address climate change challenges within the global coffee sector.

The study, conducted by Conservation International in collaboration with the Sustainable Coffee Challenge and Meo Carbon Solutions, analyzed supply chains in Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, Mexico, and Peru. The findings provide a “wake-up call” for the industry, highlighting how specific farming practices, particularly fertilization and waste management, dictate environmental impact.

  • The Emission Gap: Colombia Leads while Mexico Sets a Benchmark

Detailed data shows that coffee production in Colombia generates the highest greenhouse gas emission intensity, averaging 5.59 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq) per kilogram of green coffee. Honduras followed with 4.87 kg. In Brazil, the results varied by variety, with Arabica recording 3.22 kg compared to 2.51 kg for Robusta.

Conversely, Mexico emerged as the country with the lowest emissions in the study group, averaging just 1.46 kg. Experts attribute this lower footprint to specific traditional farming practices, including greater reliance on natural shade and organic soil health.

  • Fertilizers: The Primary Climate Culprit

According to the extensive technical report, the most significant “hotspot” for emissions in Latin American coffee is fertilizer and nutrient application. In Colombia and Brazil, fertilization accounts for approximately 60% of the total carbon footprint. This is primarily due to the heavy use of nitrogen-based inputs, which release potent greenhouse gases when interacting with the soil.

In other regions, the drivers differ. In Peru, “crop residues” and unmanaged organic decomposition were identified as the primary sources of emissions. Meanwhile, in Honduras, the traditional wet processing of coffee cherries—specifically the management of wastewater at the farm level—contributes significantly to the national baseline.

  • A “Pre-Competitive” Global Alliance

The study is the result of an unprecedented “pre-competitive” alliance involving major global coffee brands, roasters, and suppliers. Giants such as Nestlé, Starbucks, and JDE Peet’s contributed by sharing primary data and technical oversight to harmonize carbon accounting standards across the industry.

This collaboration aims to empower stakeholders to direct investments toward “regenerative agriculture.” These practices focus on reducing chemical dependency, improving on-farm waste management, and enhancing the soil’s ability to sequester carbon rather than release it.

  • A Roadmap for Investors and Farmers

The report concludes with actionable recommendations, stressing that reducing the carbon footprint is no longer just an environmental goal but a commercial necessity. As international environmental regulations tighten, understanding these baselines is essential for maintaining global market access.

The findings confirm that transitioning to integrated nutrient management, improving water efficiency, and recycling coffee by-products into natural fertilizers are the most effective ways to bridge the carbon gap revealed in countries like Colombia and Honduras.

Shock in the Coffee Market: Colombia’s Production Drops 36%

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee production in Colombia, the world’s largest producer of washed Arabica coffee, recorded a sharp drop in February 2026. Production reached 869,000 bags, with each bag weighing 60 kilograms, marking a decline of 36% compared with the same month last year. This decrease reflects a continuing negative trend that is putting pressure on the global coffee supply.

  • Noticeable Drop in Annual Production

When looking at the total production over the last 12 months, from March 2025 to February 2026, the total reached 12.72 million bags. This represents a decline of 14% compared with the previous cycle.

German Bahamon Jaramillo, the general manager of the National Coffee Federation (FNC), said that the current situation requires urgent action to protect the stability of the sector and maintain farm productivity, according to the Argentine newspaper Infobae.

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The main recommendations include improving fertilization to restore plant strength and renewing coffee farms to ensure sustainable production in the medium term. There are also calls for direct support measures for farmers to help them deal with lower profits caused by reduced production.

  • Exports Also Decline

The drop in production has also affected exports. Coffee exports in February fell by 32%, reaching 807,000 bags.

During the beginning of the agricultural season, from October to February, total exports reached 5.06 million bags. This is a decline of 14% compared with the same period in the previous cycle.

  • Production Under Pressure

Experts say this decline shows how vulnerable coffee production is to climate changes and farm management problems. It also puts pressure on global prices and may increase the cost of coffee for consumers. At the same time, it makes it more difficult for small farmers to maintain sustainable businesses.

  • Main Reasons for the Decline

Several factors are behind the drop in production.

Climate changes:
Continuous heavy rain and thick cloud cover affected flowering and plant growth. This also led to the spread of diseases such as coffee leaf rust, although detection rates remain low thanks to resistant coffee varieties.

Read Also: Historic Colombian Coffee Harvests Face Labour Shortages

Farm management challenges:
Coffee plants are showing signs of exhaustion after several years of strong production. The 2024/2025 season recorded the highest production level in 30 years. In addition, higher costs for inputs such as fertilizers and labor have increased pressure on farmers.

Weak start to 2026:
The decline follows a 34% drop in January 2026, when production reached 893,000 bags, making the start of the year one of the weakest in recent years.

  • Suggested Actions

Experts suggest several steps to address the situation.

Short term:
Improve fertilization to strengthen plants and provide direct financial support for small farmers, who produce about 70% of the country’s coffee, to help offset income losses.

Medium term:
Renew coffee farms to ensure long-term sustainability and adopt varieties that are more resistant to climate conditions. Price-stabilization mechanisms are also recommended to reduce market volatility.

Long term:
Address climate change through global strategies. A report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) and other groups expects that global coffee production could be affected by up to 50% by 2050 if adaptation measures are not taken.

  • Impact on Global Supply

Colombia represents about 10% to 12% of global Arabica production. Because of this, any decline in its output puts pressure on the global supply, especially when production also drops in countries like Vietnam or Indonesia during some periods.

However, some of this pressure may be eased by expectations of a record Brazilian crop in the 2026/2027 season, estimated at 66.2 million bags, an increase of 17.2%. This could push global production to around 180 million bags.

Still, climate volatility keeps supply fragile. As a result, major international buyers, including the United States and Europe, may look for temporary alternatives.

  • Price Movements

Arabica prices recently fell from record levels above $4 per pound in November 2025 to about $2.80 to $3.00 per pound today, mainly because of strong crop expectations in Brazil.

However, the decline in Colombian production has helped push prices up by about 2% to 5% in recent weeks. This increase is linked to concerns about global supply and geopolitical tensions, including shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The World Bank expects Arabica prices to fall by 13% to 15% during 2026 overall. But this outlook could change if production in Colombia continues to decline.

For consumers, coffee prices in the market may rise by about 5% to 10% in the short term, especially in Europe and the United States.

Caffè Nero Forecasts Rising Prices Amid Steady Global Growth

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Caffè Nero is pressing ahead with its international expansion, even as it warns that the price of a cup of coffee is likely to keep climbing. The premium coffee house group cited a volatile mix of geopolitical conflict, rising labor costs, and climate-driven supply shortages as the primary drivers behind the anticipated hikes.

The family-owned business, which operates 1,151 outlets globally, is targeting significant growth this year. The group plans to open 30 new stores in the UK and up to 70 additional locations across its 10 international markets. This expansion follows the recent acquisition of Washington D.C.-based Compass Coffee, a move that integrated 15 new sites and a dedicated roasting facility into the brand’s North American infrastructure.

  • A Different Rhythm

Gerry Ford, who founded the chain in 1997, suggests that Caffè Nero’s private ownership has allowed it to weather the current economic storm better than its publicly traded rivals. While competitors like Starbucks and Costa have struggled with store closures or stalled sales plans, Ford attributes Nero’s resilience to a “steady pace” and longer-term planning.

“We don’t want to take over the world,” Ford noted. “We have more flexibility because we aren’t trying to hit a quarterly reporting target. We move to our own rhythm.”

  • Financial Headwinds

Despite a 13% jump in annual sales to £587.6 million, the group’s pre-tax losses widened to £41 million. This was largely due to the rising cost of servicing its £481 million debt, fueled by recent interest rate hikes and a string of strategic acquisitions, including 200 Degrees and Harris + Hoole.

Caffè Nero Forecasts Rising Prices Amid Steady Global Growth

To manage these costs, Ford confirmed that the group will pause further acquisitions for at least a year to focus on integrating its latest purchases and meeting upcoming debt repayments.

  • The Cost Crisis

The industry is currently facing a “perfect storm.” Coffee prices tripled between 2023 and early 2025 as the climate crisis ravaged crops in Brazil and Colombia. While wholesale prices have recently stabilized, they remain nearly double what they were three years ago.

Ford warned that consumers shouldn’t expect relief at the till anytime soon. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to drive up energy and shipping costs, while rising business rates and wages in the UK add further pressure. Data shows that the average price of a latte has already surged by 35% over the past five years, now sitting at approximately £3.76.

Despite these challenges, Ford remains bullish on the future of the specialty coffee sector, insisting that there is still plenty of “white space” for independent, premium brands to thrive globally.

Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Japanese researchers have found that chlorogenic acid — a natural compound found in coffee — can reduce gum inflammation and decrease bacteria associated with periodontitis.

The results were published in Dentistry Journal, a leading international dental journal emphasizing high-quality, innovative research with impact on clinical practice, scientific developments, and policy worldwide.

Periodontitis develops due to chronic gum inflammation and destruction of the tissues supporting teeth, which in severe cases can lead to tooth loss.

The primary driver is dental plaque — a bacterial biofilm that changes composition over time and accumulates pathogenic microorganisms.

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These bacteria are difficult to remove with standard hygiene, and dense biofilms are challenging even for professional cleaning.

The researchers investigated whether chlorogenic acid could improve the control of inflammation and pathogenic bacteria.

Laboratory experiments on gum tissue samples and extracted teeth from periodontitis patients assessed the effect on inflammatory markers and microbial growth.

Results showed that chlorogenic acid suppresses pro-inflammatory cytokines, including interleukin‑1β and interleukin‑8, and reduces the proliferation of bacteria such as Streptococcus mutans, Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, and Fusobacterium nucleatum.

According to the authors, the compound exhibits strong anti-inflammatory and antibacterial properties and may serve as a promising adjunct for the prevention and treatment of periodontitis.

This study represents an example of translational research, where laboratory findings could be applied in future clinical practice. However, as the experiments were conducted in vitro, further trials are needed to confirm clinical effectiveness.