Tag: Coffee Market

Tim Cofer’s Strategy: Why Keurig Dr Pepper Is Building a Coffee Giant

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New York – August 27, 2025 (Qahwa World) – When Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) unveiled its $18.4 billion acquisition of JDE Peet’s, the headline alone turned heads. But the deeper story lies in the reasoning of CEO Tim Cofer, who is reshaping the company by building a coffee powerhouse—only to spin it off as an independent entity while KDP doubles down on its soda and refreshment empire.

The move marks a sharp departure from the vision set in 2018, when Keurig Green Mountain merged with Dr Pepper Snapple in a $19 billion deal. The idea was bold: unite hot and cold beverages under one roof, controlling every category of nonalcoholic drinks on consumers’ shopping lists. That concept thrived during the COVID-19 lockdown, when KDP used AI insights from home brewers to anticipate surging demand for K-Cups, while also stockpiling Dr Pepper and Canada Dry. Sales boomed as consumers hoarded both coffee pods and sodas.

Yet the promise of synergy has faded. In Q2 2025, KDP’s soft drink revenues surged 10.7% compared with the previous year, but U.S. coffee sales fell 1.9% and international hot beverages dropped 3.8%. Rising coffee bean prices forced K-Cup price hikes, pushing consumers toward cheaper ground and instant coffee. Instead of a perfect fit, coffee became a drag on the business, and management faced the distraction of running two very different operations.

Cofer’s solution: scale and separation. By acquiring JDE Peet’s—home to brands like Jacobs, L’Or, and Peet’s Coffee retail stores—KDP will merge it with Keurig to create a transatlantic coffee giant generating nearly $16 billion in annual revenues split evenly between Europe and North America. Then KDP will spin off the coffee business to shareholders, giving it independence and sharper focus. The remaining KDP will center entirely on refreshment, managing more than 150 brands from Dr Pepper and 7Up to Snapple and Schweppes.

For Cofer, the decision is not about retreat but about unlocking potential. Coffee, he points out, is a $400 billion global market—one of the few products most people consider indispensable. But paired with sodas, it lacked the attention and resources it deserved. As a standalone company, it can pursue growth on its own terms. Meanwhile, KDP’s soda business can concentrate on taking market share from Coke and Pepsi, especially in restaurants, energy drinks, sports hydration, and trendy innovations like “dirty sodas,” which KDP introduced after spotting a viral TikTok craze.

The move reflects Cofer’s pedigree as a dealmaker. At Kraft and Mondelez, he mastered the art of integrating and separating global businesses, from the Kraft-Cadbury merger to snack acquisitions in Asia. At KDP, he has applied the same instincts, betting on bold moves like acquiring Ghost Energy and diversifying into premium categories. Now he is wagering that specialization, not diversification, will deliver long-term growth.

Investors are skeptical. KDP’s stock fell 11% on the day of the announcement, erasing billions in market value. But analysts note that coffee and sodas are fundamentally different businesses, with little overlap in distribution or strategy. Splitting them could, in fact, make both stronger.

If Cofer’s gamble pays off, KDP’s breakup will not just be remembered as a costly deal but as one of the defining strategic pivots in today’s beverage industry—creating two giants instead of one distracted hybrid.

Arabica Coffee Slips as Brazil’s Harvest Nears Completion

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Dubai, August 27, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Arabica coffee futures fell on Tuesday as pressure from Brazil’s near-complete harvest weighed on the market, while robusta prices gained on tightening supply signals. On the ICE exchange, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed down 1.44% at -5.45, while November robusta (RMU25) climbed 0.86% (+40). The divergence reflects the complex forces shaping global coffee markets at the end of August.

Brazil’s influential Cooxupé cooperative announced that as of August 22, its members had completed 91.3% of their 2025/26 harvest, signaling an abundant flow of fresh beans into the market. Independent consultancy Safras & Mercado reported even higher progress, noting 99% of Brazil’s harvest complete, including 100% of robusta and 98% of arabica. Such rapid progress has increased selling pressure, pushing arabica futures lower despite ongoing concerns about weather damage in Minas Gerais, the country’s top arabica-growing region. Somar Meteorologia reported no rainfall in the week ending August 23, following frost damage earlier in the month.

Counterbalancing the harvest pressure, exchange-monitored stocks remain tight. ICE arabica inventories dropped to a 1.25-year low of 717,113 bags, while robusta inventories fell to a one-month low of 6,614 lots, underpinning prices. Additional upward pressure stems from U.S. market disruptions, where buyers are canceling contracts for Brazilian coffee following the imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports. With Brazil supplying nearly one-third of unroasted beans to the U.S., the restrictions are tightening American supplies.

Brazil’s July export data highlighted another bullish element. The Trade Ministry reported a 20.4% year-on-year decline in unroasted coffee exports to 161,000 metric tons. Exporter group Cecafé confirmed the trend, citing a 28% fall in green coffee exports to 2.4 million bags. Arabica shipments dropped 21%, while robusta exports plunged 49% compared to July 2024. For the first seven months of 2025, Cecafé recorded a 21% decline in Brazil’s overall coffee exports, totaling 22.2 million bags.

Global indicators, however, showed a mixed picture. The International Coffee Organization reported that global June exports rose 7.3% year-on-year, reaching 11.69 million bags, although October–June cumulative exports slipped slightly by 0.2%. In Vietnam, drought weighed heavily on 2023/24 production, which fell 20% to 1.47 million metric tons, the smallest crop in four years. Exports also slumped 17% in 2024, though this year’s January–July shipments rose 6.9%.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects record global coffee production in 2025/26 at 178.68 million bags, led by a 7.9% increase in robusta output. Arabica production, however, is expected to decline by 1.7% to 97 million bags. Despite this, traders remain cautious, as Volcafé forecasts an arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025/26, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortfalls, compared with a 5.5 million bag deficit in the current cycle.

New Study Reveals the Secrets of Coffee Price Networks: What Do Quality and America Have to Do with It?

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Dubai – August 25, 2025 (Qahwa World) – A groundbreaking academic study titled Quality differences, location, and coffee price return networks: Insights from a high-dimensional CoVaR-copula analysis has shed light on the hidden mechanisms driving coffee price dynamics worldwide. The research highlights that both quality and geographic location play a central role in shaping risk spillovers and market interconnections across the global coffee trade.

The study analyzed daily data spanning twenty years and covering 17 distinct coffee varieties traded in three of the world’s most important markets: the United States, Germany, and France. The data, drawn from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), was not used in aggregated form. Instead, the researchers disaggregated it at the variety level, allowing for a far more detailed and accurate picture of price dynamics and market integration.

The findings suggest that high-quality coffees, such as mild arabicas, form stronger and more stable price linkages within markets, while lower-quality coffees like robusta exhibit more volatility and divergence. Moreover, risk spillovers are found to be stronger among coffees of similar quality, creating distinct clusters in the price network.

One of the study’s most important insights is the role of the United States as the central node of the global coffee risk network. As the world’s largest importer of coffee, the U.S. absorbs spillovers from European markets, particularly Germany and France. This centrality means that disturbances in European markets can quickly reverberate through the U.S., which then amplifies their impact across the rest of the world.

From a methodological standpoint, the study employed a high-dimensional CoVaR-copula framework, a sophisticated statistical approach that focuses on extreme price movements rather than long-term averages. Unlike traditional cointegration methods, which focus on whether prices move together in the long run, this approach looks at how shocks in one market are transmitted during stress periods to other markets.

To address the challenge of handling a large number of variables, the researchers used high-dimensional VAR (Vector Autoregressive) models combined with an Elastic-Net technique, which helps to reduce overfitting and manage what is known as the “curse of dimensionality.” This combination allowed for the creation of clearer, more precise connectedness networks, showing how risk flows between different coffee varieties and across national markets.

In addition to price data, the study incorporated insights from chemical analyses of coffee. Previous research had identified specific chemical compounds that differentiate varieties and contribute to flavor and aroma profiles. By aligning price data with chemical properties and trading locations, the researchers produced heatmaps and connectedness graphs that reveal how both intrinsic quality and geography drive the clustering of coffee markets.

The results demonstrate that geographical proximity facilitates faster transmission of information and market shocks, while chemical and sensory differences create visible separations within networks. In other words, the global coffee market is not just shaped by supply and demand—it is influenced by the interplay of quality, chemistry, taste, and trading location.

Although the study faced limitations, particularly the inability to analyze coffee futures contracts at the variety level due to insufficient data, it still provides valuable insights into the structure of the global coffee trade. By revealing how clusters form and risks spill over, the research helps explain why certain markets are more vulnerable than others during times of stress.

For policymakers, producers, and importers, these findings carry important implications. Monitoring general coffee price indices is no longer sufficient. Instead, stakeholders must consider differences in quality and geographic positioning when evaluating market risks. With global coffee markets under increasing pressure from climate change, supply chain disruptions, and regulatory frameworks such as the European Union’s deforestation regulation, this research offers a timely tool for risk management and strategic planning.

Ultimately, the study underscores how coffee—often seen as just a daily ritual—sits at the center of a complex economic web. Quality and geography act as the hidden levers of price dynamics, and the United States remains at the core of this network, both shaping and being shaped by the flows of risk. What emerges is a portrait of coffee not simply as a commodity, but as a global force whose market behavior reflects the broader challenges of interconnected economies.

Coca-Cola Weighs Future of Costa Coffee Amid Strategic Review

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Dubai, 24 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – The Coca-Cola Company is considering a possible sale of Costa Coffee, the British café chain it acquired in 2018, in what could become one of the most significant moves in the global coffee sector this year. According to reports confirmed by individuals familiar with the discussions, the U.S. beverage giant has hired investment bank Lazard to explore strategic options for Costa, ranging from a complete divestment to other restructuring paths. Early conversations have reportedly taken place with a limited number of potential bidders, including private equity firms, with indicative offers expected later this autumn.

The development marks a dramatic turn for Coca-Cola, which purchased Costa Coffee for more than $5 billion only seven years ago. At the time, the acquisition was presented as a bold entry into the booming global coffee market, positioning Coca-Cola to compete directly with established players such as Starbucks and Nestlé. With over 4,000 stores worldwide, including more than 2,700 outlets in the United Kingdom and Ireland, Costa provided the Atlanta-based company with an immediate international footprint in coffee retail, a sector where it had previously lacked presence.

Yet the performance of Costa under Coca-Cola’s ownership has fallen short of expectations. While revenues have grown modestly, the chain has struggled with profitability in the face of rising costs, increased competition, and shifting consumer behavior. In 2023, Costa’s revenues climbed by 9 percent to nearly £1.22 billion, but the company recorded a pre-tax loss of £9.6 million. The figure represented a sharp contrast with the £245.9 million profit reported just one year earlier, underscoring the financial pressure weighing on the brand.

Several factors appear to have contributed to Costa’s difficulties. Inflation has raised the cost of raw coffee beans and other inputs, while the high-street café market in the United Kingdom has grown more crowded with independent operators and international rivals. Additionally, some smaller branches in towns such as Andover and Lyme Regis have recently closed, fueling concerns that the chain has been unable to maintain momentum outside its core metropolitan strongholds.

The possibility of a sale, first reported by Sky News and later confirmed by other outlets, has already sparked debate over how much Costa is worth in the current environment. Industry analysts have suggested that the chain could fetch as little as £2 billion—less than half of what Coca-Cola paid in 2018. Such a valuation would reflect the challenges the brand faces as well as the cautious outlook of investors weighing long-term demand trends.

Coca-Cola executives have acknowledged the need to reassess the company’s position in the coffee category. In an earnings call last month, Chief Executive James Quincey stated that Costa had not delivered on the original investment hypothesis, noting that the company was now reflecting on lessons learned and exploring new avenues for growth in coffee. At the same time, he emphasized that Costa continues to operate successfully day to day, suggesting that any decision would be carefully measured rather than abrupt.

The discussions around Costa also fit into a broader wave of corporate restructuring across the global food and beverage industry. With inflation altering cost structures and consumers increasingly prioritizing health, sustainability, and transparency, large companies are rethinking their portfolios to adapt. Coca-Cola has already made moves in this direction, most recently announcing a shift to real cane sugar in its U.S. beverages as part of a campaign to respond to rising health awareness.

Should a sale move forward, it would reshape the global coffee landscape. Costa, with operations spanning more than 50 countries, represents one of the few brands capable of challenging Starbucks on a multi-regional scale. A new owner could seek to revitalize the brand with fresh investment and focus, while Coca-Cola would gain flexibility to redirect resources toward other categories. On the other hand, if bids fall short of expectations, the company may choose to retain Costa and pursue an internal restructuring to restore profitability.

For now, the process remains in early stages, and no definitive outcome has been decided. What is clear, however, is that Coca-Cola’s venture into the café business—once considered a cornerstone of its diversification strategy—is under critical review. Whether Costa changes hands or undergoes a major transformation within the Coca-Cola system, the decision will send ripples through both the corporate boardrooms and coffee shops that make up an increasingly competitive global market.

Coffee Prices Surge on Brazil Weather Concerns and Supply Tightness

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Dubai, 23 August, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee futures surged sharply on Friday, reaching multi-month highs as weather concerns in Brazil and tightening global supplies continued to fuel bullish momentum. December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed up +13.30 cents (+3.64%), marking a 3.5-month high, while September ICE robusta (RMU25) gained +108 points (+2.27%), its strongest level in three months. The rally extended a three-week upward trend, with traders reacting to reports of dry conditions and frost damage in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer.

According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais, Brazil’s leading arabica coffee-growing region, recorded no rainfall during the week ending August 16. This lack of precipitation, coupled with recent frost damage, raised concerns over crop yields and pushed prices higher. Additional upward pressure came from the United States, where coffee supplies are tightening as buyers void new Brazilian contracts in response to a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports. With nearly one-third of U.S. coffee imports traditionally sourced from Brazil, the restrictions have intensified market concerns over availability.

Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that July unroasted coffee exports fell by 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons. Exporter group Cecafe confirmed an even steeper decline in green coffee shipments, which dropped 28% in July to 2.4 million bags. Arabica exports fell 21%, robusta plunged 49%, and overall shipments for the January–July period slipped 21% to 22.2 million bags. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags before recovering slightly to 729,606 bags on Friday. Robusta inventories also dropped to a four-week low of 6,642 lots, down from a two-year high of 7,029 lots at the end of July.

On the other hand, progress in Brazil’s harvest is adding a bearish element. Safras & Mercado reported that 99% of the 2025/26 crop was harvested as of August 20, with the robusta harvest completed and 98% of arabica finished. Brazil’s largest cooperative, Cooxupé, announced that its members had completed 86.1% of their harvest by August 15.

Global developments continue to influence sentiment. The International Coffee Organization reported that world coffee exports rose 7.3% in June to 11.69 million bags, although cumulative shipments from October through June were slightly lower at 104.14 million bags. In Vietnam, drought reduced 2023/24 production by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons, the smallest crop in four years, while 2024 exports dropped 17.1%. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has since lowered its 2024/25 production forecast to 26.5 million bags. However, government data showed that exports from January to July 2025 rose 6.9% to 1.05 million metric tons.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects that global coffee production in 2025/26 will rise by 2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags, with robusta output increasing by 7.9% to 81.66 million bags and arabica output slipping 1.7% to 97.02 million bags. Ending stocks are forecast to climb 4.9% to 22.82 million bags. Despite these figures, trader Volcafe projects a widening arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26, compared with 5.5 million in 2024/25, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortages.

Coffee markets are now navigating the opposing forces of immediate weather-driven supply risks and harvest progress in Brazil against longer-term forecasts of record global output, leaving traders alert to further volatility in the weeks ahead.

Coffee Boom: Saudis Consume 36 Million Cups Daily

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Dubai, August 21, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Saudi Arabia’s coffee market is witnessing unprecedented growth, positioning the Kingdom among the world’s top consumers of caffeine. According to the Saudi Restaurants and Cafés Association, Saudis consume around 36 million cups of coffee every day, roughly equivalent to one cup per person. The local market is valued at between $1.3 and $1.9 billion annually, reflecting strong demand and a broad consumer base. Projections also suggest that the coffee market across the Middle East and North Africa could reach $11.7 billion by 2027, with Saudi Arabia making a major contribution thanks to the rising popularity of specialty coffee.

The Ministry of Commerce has issued more than 61,000 café licenses across the country, including 27,000 licenses for traditional neighborhood cafés that serve Arabic coffee and heritage products. This surge underscores how cafés have evolved into vibrant social and economic hubs that now compete with restaurants in both customer traffic and revenue. International chains such as Starbucks and Tim Hortons sit alongside fast-rising Saudi brands like Eksiir Al Bun (Elixir Bunn), Khutwat Jaml (Camel Step), and Barn’s, offering innovative experiences inspired by local culture. Technology has also played a vital role in transforming the café landscape, with online ordering apps, digital payment systems, and even the use of robot baristas in advanced outlets.

According to Ahmed Al-Qashqari, CEO of the Saudi Restaurants and Cafés Association, cafés now account for 16% of the Kingdom’s food service sector, compared to a time when restaurants dominated. He noted that the sector is expanding at an annual growth rate of more than 5%, driving job creation and diversifying income streams in line with Vision 2030, which seeks to establish a sustainable, diversified economy. Beyond their economic role, cafés have also become important community spaces, providing ideal environments for networking, creativity, and entrepreneurship, particularly among young Saudis who make up the majority of the population and lead many successful ventures in this sector.

Saudi Arabia has also invested around $320 million to boost domestic coffee cultivation, particularly in the regions of Jazan, Al-Baha, and Asir, which produce the premium Khoulani Arabica beans renowned for their global quality. This investment is designed to significantly increase production and transform Saudi coffee from a cultural tradition into a competitive economic product with strong export potential. The initiative also strengthens the Kingdom’s standing in the global coffee industry. Meanwhile, events such as the Saudi Coffee Festival continue to promote local products and enhance cultural tourism, further solidifying coffee’s strategic role in the national economy.

Despite this remarkable growth, the sector faces challenges, including high operating costs, fierce competition among brands, and the need to continuously train baristas and staff to ensure a world-class experience. Reliance on imports for certain coffee varieties also remains an obstacle to full self-sufficiency. Nevertheless, ongoing investments in local production, combined with technological innovation and consumer-focused strategies, point toward a bright future for Saudi Arabia’s coffee industry, which is fast becoming one of the most dynamic economic and cultural drivers in the region.

Coffee Prices Rise on Light Frost in Brazil and Sharp Decline in Robusta Exports

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Dubai, 13 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee futures gained on Wednesday, supported by reports of light frost in Brazil’s Cerrado Mineiro region and a significant drop in the country’s robusta exports.

September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed up +4.45 cents (+1.41%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) surged +206 points (+5.53%) to reach a two-month high.

Weather Impact

Light frost earlier this week in Cerrado Mineiro, one of Brazil’s key arabica-producing areas, prompted concerns in the market, although initial assessments suggest damage is minimal. Above-average rainfall in Minas Gerais last week (4.8 mm, or 109% of the historical average) eased dryness concerns, potentially limiting upward price pressure.

Exports Driving the Rally

According to exporter group Cecafe, Brazil’s July green coffee exports fell -28% year-on-year to 2.4 million bags. Arabica exports declined -21%, while robusta exports plunged -49%. Total July coffee exports dropped -28% to 2.7 million bags, with January–July shipments down -21% to 22.2 million bags.

The sharp decline in robusta exports, combined with short-covering after previous market losses, was a major factor behind robusta’s price surge. Brazil’s July unroasted coffee exports also fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 metric tons.

Falling Inventories

ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 736,411 bags on Wednesday. Robusta inventories dropped to a two-week low of 6,928 lots, slightly below the one-year high recorded at the end of July.

Harvest Progress

Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 94% complete as of August 6, ahead of last year’s 92% at the same time. Robusta harvest is 99% finished, while arabica is 91% complete. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and exporter, said its members had harvested 80.4% of their crop by August 8.

Trade Policy Concerns

Market attention is also on U.S. trade policy, as President Trump has yet to exempt coffee from a proposed 50% tariff on Brazilian exports, a move that could impact sales to the U.S. and increase domestic inventories in Brazil.

Global Supply Picture

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported global coffee exports in June rose +7.3% y/y to 11.69 million bags, though cumulative October–June exports slipped -0.2% to 104.14 million bags.

The USDA’s June forecast projects global 2025/26 coffee production will rise +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with arabica output down -1.7% to 97.02 million bags and robusta production up +7.9% to 81.66 million bags. Ending stocks are expected to increase +4.9% to 22.82 million bags.

Vietnam’s Role in Robusta Supply

Vietnam’s 2023/24 coffee production fell -20% y/y to 1.472 million metric tons due to drought—the smallest crop in four years. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has lowered its 2024/25 production forecast to 26.5 million bags, down from December’s estimate of 28 million bags. However, Vietnam’s Jan–July 2025 exports rose +6.9% y/y to 1.05 million metric tons.

Deficit Outlook

Despite higher overall global production, Volcafe forecasts a -8.5 million bag global arabica deficit in 2025/26—wider than the -5.5 million bag shortfall in 2024/25—marking the fifth consecutive year of deficits.

Tight Supplies Push Coffee Prices to Multi-Week Highs in September 2025

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Dubai, 12 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – The global coffee market saw a sharp rally at the start of August, with September Arabica futures (KCU25) rising by 14.00 cents (+4.53%) to hit a seven-week high, while September Robusta futures (RMU25) climbed 188 points (+5.28%) to a four-week high. The surge was fueled by clear signs of tightening supply in the world’s largest producing countries, driven by lower exports and falling inventories.

Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that the country’s exports of unroasted coffee in July dropped 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons. At the same time, ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a 14.5-month low of 738,095 bags, while Robusta stocks declined to a two-week low of 6,981 lots.

Markets are closely watching the United States’ stance on import tariffs, as President Trump has yet to announce an exemption for coffee from the 50% import duty on Brazilian exports — a move that could impact U.S. sales and boost domestic inventories in Brazil.

In weather developments, Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica-growing region, recorded 4.8 mm of rainfall during the week ending 9 August, amounting to 109% of the historical average, easing drought concerns. Harvest progress remains swift, with Safras & Mercado estimating that 94% of the 2025/2026 crop had been completed as of 6 August (99% for Robusta and 91% for Arabica). Cooxupé, the country’s largest coffee cooperative and exporter, reported its members had harvested 74% of their crop by 1 August.

Globally, the International Coffee Organization’s monthly report showed that June exports rose 7.3% year-on-year to 11.69 million bags, while cumulative exports from October to June slipped 0.2%.

In recent months, prices have faced downward pressure from expectations of abundant supply. In June, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast Brazil’s 2025/2026 coffee production at 65 million bags (+0.5%), and Vietnam’s output at 31 million bags (+6.9%, the highest in four years). The USDA also projected record global output of 178.68 million bags (+2.5%), with Arabica production down 1.7% and Robusta production up 7.9%. Ending stocks are expected to rise 4.9% to 22.82 million bags.

Brazil’s Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafe) reported that June green coffee exports fell 31% year-on-year to 2.3 million bags, with Arabica shipments down 27% and Robusta down 42%. In Vietnam, 2023/2024 production dropped 20% year-on-year due to drought, hitting a four-year low, while exports from January to July 2025 rose 6.9% to 1.05 million metric tons.

Volcafe projects that the global Arabica market will post a deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025/2026, compared to a 5.5 million-bag deficit in 2024/2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortfall.