Category: Studies

Japanese Study: Caffeic Acid in Coffee Inhibits Colorectal Cancer Cell

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A Japanese research team has identified the molecular mechanism by which caffeic acid, a polyphenol found in coffee, suppresses the growth of colorectal cancer (CRC) cells.

This discovery, published in Scientific Reports on March 5, 2026, provides a potential scientific basis for epidemiological studies that link regular coffee consumption to a reduced risk of colorectal cancer.

The Molecular Mechanism: Targeting the RPS5-Cyclin D1 Axis While previous research suggested a link between coffee and cancer prevention, the specific components and their biological functions remained unclear.

You may read: Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

Researchers from Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine and Kansai Medical University Hospital focused on caffeic acid, which is produced when chlorogenic acid (abundant in coffee) is hydrolyzed in the intestines.

Key findings from the study include: Direct Binding to RPS5: Using nano-magnetic beads and mass spectrometry, the team identified ribosomal protein S5 (RPS5) as a direct binding target of caffeic acid. High expression of RPS5 is known to be associated with poor prognosis in colorectal cancer patients.

Inducing G1 Cell Cycle Arrest: The research demonstrated that caffeic acid blocks the function of RPS5, which in turn halts the cell cycle of cancer cells at the G1 phase, preventing them from copying their DNA and proliferating.

You may also read: Why Coffee Is One of the Healthiest Drinks

Post-Transcriptional Regulation of Cyclin D1: Both the addition of caffeic acid and the suppression of RPS5 reduced the levels of cyclin D1, a protein critical for driving the cell growth cycle. The study suggests that RPS5 regulates cyclin D1 by controlling the stability of its messenger RNA (mRNA) rather than its promoter activity.

Future Therapeutic Potential Dr. Motoki Watanabe, the lead researcher, stated that these findings reveal a previously unrecognized RPS5-cyclin D1 axis targeted by caffeic acid. This insight could lead to the development of new cancer prevention strategies and treatments, such as optimized derivatives of caffeic acid that more effectively target RPS5.

Important Considerations The researchers noted that this was basic research conducted primarily on cell cultures. They cautioned that the concentrations of caffeic acid required for these effects in a laboratory setting are higher than what is typically achieved through normal coffee consumption. Additionally, since coffee contains other components like caffeine and may not suit everyone’s constitution, excessive consumption is not recommended.

Why Coffee Is One of the Healthiest Drinks

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After reviewing hundreds of studies and the latest 2025–2026 evidence, one thing is clear: when consumed in moderation, coffee stands out as one of the most beneficial beverages for long-term health. Its combination of caffeine and powerful antioxidants delivers real, evidence-based advantages that go far beyond just waking you up.

  • How Coffee Works

Coffee contains over 1,000 bioactive compounds. Caffeine blocks adenosine receptors to reduce fatigue and boost alertness, dopamine, and physical performance. At the same time, polyphenols such as chlorogenic acids fight inflammation, support insulin sensitivity, and protect cells from oxidative damage. Many benefits appear with both regular and decaf coffee.

You may read: Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

Key Evidence-Based Benefits

  • Boosts Energy and Exercise Performance Caffeine reliably increases alertness, reduces perceived fatigue, and improves endurance, power output, and even gait speed in both athletes and older adults.
  • Lowers Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Each additional daily cup is associated with approximately 6–9% lower risk. People drinking 3–4 cups per day show around 25% reduced risk, thanks to better insulin sensitivity, preserved pancreatic beta-cell function, and lower inflammation. Both caffeinated and decaf coffee work.
  • Supports Brain Health Regular coffee consumption is consistently linked to lower risks of Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s, dementia, and age-related cognitive decline. Newer studies suggest 2–3 cups of caffeinated coffee daily may offer particularly strong protection.
  • AIDS Weight Management Coffee promotes fat breakdown, supports physical activity, and positively influences the gut microbiome. Higher intake is often associated with less body fat over time.
  • Reduces Depression Risk Drinking 2–4 cups daily is associated with lower rates of depression compared to low or no consumption, thanks to its effects on mood and inflammation.
  • Additional Powerful Advantages
  • Protects the Liver One of coffee’s strongest benefits. It reduces liver stiffness, fibrosis, cirrhosis risk, and even liver cancer. These protective effects apply to both regular and decaf coffee.
  • Benefits Heart Health 3–5 cups per day are linked to about 15% lower risk of heart disease and a meaningful reduction in stroke risk. Recent data show that drinking coffee mainly in the morning may provide even stronger benefits.
  • Extends Longevity Large reviews find that 2–4 cups daily are associated with 10–17% lower all-cause mortality, including reduced deaths from heart disease and some cancers. The sweet spot often appears around 3–3.5 cups per day.
  • Enhances Fitness Coffee improves athletic performance, power output, and functional ability in older adults.

You may also read: Study Links Moderate Coffee Consumption to Brain Health

  • Moderation Guidelines

For most healthy adults, 3–4 cups per day (roughly 300–400 mg of caffeine) is the ideal range—safe and associated with maximum benefits.

Special notes:

  • Pregnant or nursing women should limit intake to less than 200 mg of caffeine per day (about 1 cup).
  • People sensitive to caffeine should start with smaller amounts.
  • Very high intakes beyond 400 mg daily may not bring extra benefits.

Final Word from Qahwa World

Moderate coffee consumption is a simple, enjoyable habit that supports energy, metabolism, brain function, heart health, liver protection, mood, and even a longer life.

Your daily cup (or three) is not just a pleasure — it’s genuinely good for you.

Nighttime Coffee May Increase Impulsive Behavior, Study Finds

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A recent study from researchers at the University of Texas at El Paso suggests that drinking caffeine at night could influence behavior in unexpected ways. The findings indicate that nighttime caffeine consumption may increase impulsivity, potentially leading to riskier actions.

The research, published in iScience, explored how caffeine affects behavioral control depending on the time of day. Scientists conducted experiments using fruit flies (Drosophila melanogaster), a species commonly used in research due to similarities in key biological processes shared with humans.

You may read: The Best Time to Drink Coffee, According to Experts

To test the effects, the team provided fruit flies with caffeine under different conditions, including varying doses, daytime versus nighttime intake, and sleep deprivation. They then evaluated impulsivity by observing how the flies reacted to strong airflow—an unpleasant stimulus that typically causes them to stop moving.

Under normal conditions, the flies avoided movement when exposed to the airflow. However, those that consumed caffeine at night were less able to suppress their reactions, continuing to move despite the discomfort. This behavior was interpreted as increased impulsivity. In contrast, caffeine consumed during the day did not produce the same effect.

Read also: 43 Years of Data: How Coffee Affects the Brain and Memory

The study also revealed notable differences between male and female flies. While both had similar caffeine levels, females showed a stronger increase in impulsive behavior. Researchers believe this difference is likely due to genetic or physiological factors rather than hormones, since fruit flies do not share the same hormonal systems as humans.

Given how widely caffeine is consumed—especially among people who work late or overnight—the findings may have broader implications. The researchers suggest that individuals such as shift workers, including those in healthcare or the military, could be more affected by caffeine intake at night. The results also point to the possibility that females may be more sensitive to these behavioral effects.

The study was led by Erick Saldes, Paul Sabandal, and Kyung-An Han, who emphasize the importance of understanding how timing influences caffeine’s impact on the brain and behavior.

The Best Time to Drink Coffee, According to Experts

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For many people, coffee is the first step in starting the day. However, experts suggest that when you drink your coffee may influence how your body responds to it.

After waking up, the body naturally increases production of cortisol, a hormone linked to alertness. This typically peaks within the first 30 to 60 minutes. Some experts suggest that drinking coffee during this period may make caffeine feel less effective, as the body is already in a naturally alert state.

Hydration is another factor to consider. After several hours of sleep without fluids, the body may be slightly dehydrated. Drinking coffee before water may contribute to feelings of fatigue or dryness, particularly in people who are sensitive to caffeine.

Some individuals may also experience stomach discomfort when consuming coffee on an empty stomach, including increased acidity, although responses vary.

A commonly recommended approach is to wait 60 to 90 minutes after waking before having your first cup of coffee. This allows the body’s natural rhythm to settle and may help caffeine provide a more balanced and sustained energy boost.

Other morning habits can also influence energy levels. Diets high in sugar and low in protein may lead to fluctuations in energy, while exercising on an empty stomach may leave some people feeling fatigued. Immediate exposure to emails or screens may also contribute to early mental strain.

A more gradual start to the day may support steadier energy levels. Drinking water first, getting exposure to natural light, and delaying caffeine intake slightly are simple adjustments that [uncertain] may help improve how you feel later in the day.

43 Years of Data: How Coffee Affects the Brain and Memory

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Regular consumption of coffee and tea may do more than boost alertness—it could also play a role in maintaining cognitive health over time. This is suggested by findings from a large-scale analysis of more than 130,000 participants followed over a period of 43 years.

Throughout the study, participants regularly reported their dietary habits, health status, and changes in memory and thinking abilities. Over the course of the observation period, more than 11,000 individuals developed dementia. The analysis found that those who consumed caffeinated coffee in moderate amounts—about two to three cups per day—had an approximately 18% lower risk of developing dementia compared to those who rarely or never drank it. They also reported fewer subjective memory complaints and performed better on certain cognitive tests.

Similar patterns were observed among tea drinkers, with one to two cups per day associated with favourable outcomes. In contrast, decaffeinated coffee did not show a clear association with improved cognitive measures, suggesting that caffeine may play an important role in the observed effects.

You may like: AI and Gas Chromatography Identify Coffee Origins

Researchers link these findings to compounds found in coffee and tea, including caffeine and polyphenols, which are believed to help reduce inflammation and protect brain cells from damage. Higher levels of caffeine intake did not appear to have harmful effects in this analysis, showing results comparable to moderate consumption.

Further analysis indicated that the association between caffeine intake and cognitive health was consistent regardless of genetic predisposition to dementia, highlighting the potential influence of lifestyle factors. At the same time, researchers emphasise that coffee and tea consumption represents only one part of a broader picture that includes diet, physical activity, sleep, and overall health.

The findings suggest that moderate, regular consumption of coffee or tea may contribute to maintaining cognitive function with age, though it should not be viewed as a standalone solution for preventing dementia.

Read also: Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

AI and Gas Chromatography Identify Coffee Origins

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Researchers have developed a new method that can help identify the country of origin of coffee by analyzing its aromatic compounds. The approach combines gas chromatography with artificial intelligence (AI) to create chemical fingerprints capable of distinguishing coffees from different producing regions.

Volatile compounds play a major role in shaping coffee’s aroma and flavor. These compounds are responsible for many of the subtle sensory notes found in brewed coffee and are often discussed in professional coffee competitions and sensory evaluations.

Scientists are now exploring how these same compounds can also serve as indicators of geographic origin.

According to a report highlighted by Chromatography Online, researchers from Italy and the United States conducted a study that will be published in the Journal of Chromatography. The team analyzed 32 roasted coffee samples provided by the Italian coffee company Illy.

You may read: Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

The samples represented several major coffee-producing countries: five from Brazil, six from Colombia, and seven each from Ethiopia, Guatemala, and India.

Instead of focusing on specific chemical markers, the researchers created what they describe as an “untargeted fingerprint.” This approach generates a comprehensive chemical profile of each coffee sample, allowing both known and unknown volatile compounds to contribute to the identification process.

To build these fingerprints, the scientists used two-dimensional gas chromatography, a technique that separates and measures numerous volatile compounds present in roasted coffee. The analysis produced detailed visual maps showing the distribution and intensity of these compounds.

These chemical maps were then analyzed using computer vision, a form of artificial intelligence designed to interpret visual patterns in complex datasets. By combining the results from samples originating from the same country, the researchers created composite templates representing typical volatile compound patterns for each origin.

Read also: Study Links Moderate Coffee Consumption to Brain Health

When additional coffee samples were compared with these templates, the system was able to identify their country of origin based on their chemical signatures.

The researchers note that the study has certain limitations, as factors such as coffee variety and post-harvest processing methods may also influence the volatile compounds present in roasted coffee. Further research may be needed to determine how these variables affect the reliability of the origin templates.

Despite these limitations, the findings could offer new tools for the coffee industry. In addition to helping verify origin, the technology may contribute to more objective assessments of coffee characteristics based on measurable chemical properties.

While traditional cupping remains the primary method for evaluating coffee quality, analytical techniques such as gas chromatography combined with artificial intelligence could provide complementary scientific insights into coffee composition and origin.

ICO February 2026 Report: Has the Inflationary Wave Receded?

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LONDON – Qahwa World

The latest monthly report issued by the International Coffee Organization for February 2026 has revealed a dramatic shift that could redefine the global coffee market dynamics for years to come. After a prolonged period of scarcity and record-high prices that strained both suppliers and consumers, the report announced a sharp decline in price indicators. This shift is driven by a “tsunami” of anticipated supplies from Brazil and Vietnam, officially placing the market on the verge of a historic surplus that ends a three-year cycle of consecutive deficits.

  • Price Earthquake

In February, the Organization’s Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 267.57 US cents/lb, representing a sharp 9.9% decrease compared to January. This decline is not merely a transient fluctuation but reflects massive selling pressure in global exchanges; the index opened the month at a peak of 289.47 cents and slid to 248.86 cents by month-end, the lowest level recorded since August 2025.

You may read: Global Coffee Market Roadmap—January 2026

None of the major categories were immune to this downward trend, with the Organization’s statistical analysis showing the following results:

  • Colombian Milds: Declined by 11.0% to settle at 330.89 cents.
  • Other Milds: Retracted by 11.7% to reach 321.35 cents.
  • Brazilian Naturals: Shrank by 10.2% to reach 308.62 cents.

Robustas: Proved most resilient, declining by only 6.6%. Experts attribute this to global roasters increasing the proportion of Robusta in their commercial blends as a strategic solution to reduce overall costs, creating sustainable demand that stabilized its price levels.

  • Brazilian and Vietnamese Winds

Organization analysts believe the fundamental reason behind this “price correction” lies in the optimistic forecasts from Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB), which raised expectations for the 2026/27 crop to 66.2 million bags, a massive 17.1% annual increase.

These forecasts were supported by a tangible improvement in weather conditions and regular, heavy rainfall in key growing regions such as Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, as well as improved outlooks in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. These factors prompted major international financial institutions to predict a global surplus of up to 8.64 million bags, leading large investment funds to liquidate long positions and pivot toward selling. This explains the 20.7% shrinkage in the arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets.

  • Global Trade Map

Regarding exports, January 2026 saw the shipment of 10.85 million bags of green beans, a 12.7% increase over January 2025. However, behind this headline figure lie geographical disparities reflecting specific regional logistical and production challenges:

Asia & Oceania: The region achieved a staggering 51.8% growth, with Vietnam alone exporting 3.99 million bags in January, capitalizing on accelerated shipping ahead of the Lunar New Year (Tet) holiday.

Africa: Continued its recovery with 14.2% growth. Ethiopia stood out as a strategic player with a 51.5% increase in shipments, while Uganda grew by 11.2%, reflecting a significant improvement in the continent’s internal supply chains.

South America: Recorded a surprising 21.3% decline. The biggest shock was in Colombia, where production plummeted by 34.1% due to unfavorable localized weather fluctuations, negatively impacting the flow of premium Colombian Milds to global markets.

Mexico & Central America: Registered a slight 4.2% decrease, with Honduras suffering a sharp 28.7% drop in exports due to seasonal labor shortages and logistical hurdles.

Read Also: ICO Releases Global Coffee Market Report – December 2025

  • Stocks and Processed Coffee

For the first time in months, the International Coffee Organization report indicates a slight improvement in certified stocks. New York (ICE) stocks rose by 11.4% to 0.52 million bags, while London stocks increased by 3.1% to 0.76 million bags. This rise provides a relative “safety cushion” against sudden climatic or political shocks.

A notable phenomenon in the report was the export of “Roasted Coffee,” which jumped by 25.2%. This indicates a strategic shift in origin countries toward local processing to add value to their products rather than relying solely on raw bean exports. Meanwhile, soluble coffee exports grew at a steady pace of 1.9%.

  • The Retail Paradox

The report highlighted a crucial point affecting the real economy: despite the collapse of raw coffee prices in global exchanges, retail prices in the United States jumped by 18.3% year-on-year in January 2026. This persistent inflation, totaling 47% cumulatively over five years, is mainly due to rising logistics, energy, and labor costs in consuming countries. Additionally, accumulating consumer debt is beginning to weigh on purchasing power, which may threaten the expected 1.7% growth in global consumption.

  • Future Outlook

We are entering a phase of total “reset” in coffee market balances. The market is currently moving to narrow the global deficit to just 0.4 million bags this season, paving the way for the anticipated historic surplus next year. For investors, roasters, and consumers, the February 2026 report serves as the “final whistle” for the era of frantic speculation and chronic shortages, signaling the start of a price stability phase led by Brazilian production abundance and Vietnamese logistical efficiency.

Brazil’s Specialty Coffee Sector Gains Global Momentum

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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published a detailed report titled “Brewing Opportunity – Brazil’s Specialty Coffee Sector Shows Strong Potential,” examining the rapid development of Brazil’s specialty coffee industry and the opportunities and challenges shaping its future.

Brazil remains the largest coffee producer and exporter in the world, while also ranking as the second-largest coffee-consuming country. Historically, the nation exported its highest-quality beans while domestic consumption focused largely on lower-grade coffee. In recent years, however, this pattern has begun to shift. Brazilian consumers are increasingly developing a taste for specialty coffee, driving growth in both production and local demand.

According to the report, the expansion of the specialty segment is supported by several structural advantages. Brazil benefits from favorable climatic conditions that allow the cultivation of diverse coffee varieties across multiple regions. In addition, the country has developed a strong network of research institutions, cooperatives, and producer organizations that focus on improving quality, innovation, and technical expertise within the coffee sector.

At the same time, the domestic market for coffee continues to expand, with consumers showing greater interest in differentiated products and higher-quality beans.

You may read: Russia’s Imports of Brazilian Coffee Fall to Six-Month Low

Despite this progress, the report notes that Brazil’s specialty coffee sector still faces several structural challenges. Many producers struggle with limited access to rural credit, making it difficult to finance investments in equipment and infrastructure. Post-harvest processing facilities—such as washing stations, pulpers, sorting machines, and drying systems—also remain insufficient in some areas, limiting the ability of farmers to produce and market high-quality coffee.

Producers have also reported uneven access to technical assistance and a limited number of certified warehouses and exporters, which can reduce profitability and hinder broader participation in the specialty coffee market, particularly among small-scale farmers.

Although specialty coffee generally costs about 50 percent more than conventional coffee, the segment offers advantages beyond price. Buyers often establish longer-term relationships with producers, which can provide farmers with greater stability and security for future harvests.

  • Major Coffee-Producing Regions

Specialty coffee production in Brazil is concentrated mainly in high-altitude regions, where elevation and moderate temperatures contribute to denser beans and more complex flavor profiles.

You may read: Brazil Crop Expectations Pressure Global Coffee Prices

The state of Minas Gerais stands as Brazil’s leading producer of arabica and specialty coffees. Regions such as Sul de Minas, Cerrado Mineiro, Matas de Minas, and Mantiqueira de Minas form a well-organized production chain that includes farmers, cooperatives, exporters, warehouses, and research institutions. Minas Gerais alone produces around 24 million bags of coffee annually, representing nearly half of Brazil’s total coffee output.

Each sub-region offers distinctive characteristics. Cerrado Mineiro became the first coffee region in Brazil to receive Designation of Origin status, while Sul de Minas is known for its concentration of small farms and its large cooperative structure. Mantiqueira de Minas has gained international recognition for its high-altitude coffees, where significant temperature variation between day and night allows cherries to ripen slowly, resulting in sweeter and more aromatic beans.

In Espírito Santo, Brazil’s second-largest coffee-producing state, production is dominated by robusta—locally known as conilon—though high-altitude areas also produce quality arabica coffee. Regions such as Caparaó and Montanhas do Espírito Santo are known for small family farms and coffees with aromatic complexity and balanced acidity.

The state of São Paulo also contributes to the specialty segment through regions such as Alta Mogiana and Média Mogiana, where coffees typically display balanced acidity, strong aroma, and a creamy body.

You may read:Coffee Prices Rise as Brazilian Real Strength Sparks Short Covering

Other regions across Brazil contribute unique characteristics as well. Rondônia, located in the Amazon region, specializes in conilon production, while Paraná, historically a major coffee producer, continues to maintain output through small farms supported by cooperatives and research institutions. Meanwhile, Bahia, one of the country’s newer coffee regions, has gained attention for its use of advanced technology and mechanized farming systems, which support high productivity levels.

  • Quality Standards and Classification

Brazil follows internationally recognized quality standards for specialty coffee. The evaluation system used by the Specialty Coffee Association scores arabica coffees on a 100-point scale, with coffees scoring 80 points or higher classified as specialty grade.

Coffees are evaluated according to sensory characteristics such as aroma, flavor, acidity, body, sweetness, balance, uniformity, and aftertaste, while also being assessed for physical defects.

Brazil also uses national classification systems aligned with these international standards. The country’s official classification process evaluates cup quality using descriptors such as strictly soft, soft, and hard, among others.

In May 2025, the Brazil Specialty Coffee Association adopted a new evaluation protocol known as Coffee Value Assessment, designed to create a more standardized approach to assessing quality and to improve communication between producers and international buyers.

You may read:Brazil Rain and Vietnam Surplus Sink Coffee Futures

Brazilian producers may also use additional certification programs—such as organic or fair-trade certifications—to meet international market requirements, although these certifications do not automatically classify a coffee as specialty.

The quality of Brazilian robusta and conilon coffee has also improved in recent years, contributing to stronger demand and higher prices. Brazil is currently the second-largest producer of robusta coffee globally, behind Vietnam.

  • Challenges Affecting Growth

The report highlights genetics as another key factor in specialty coffee production. However, inconsistencies between international and national databases for coffee cultivars sometimes create challenges. Some varieties recognized internationally for exceptional quality are not officially registered for cultivation in Brazil, while many important Brazilian cultivars are absent from international quality catalogues.

These discrepancies can complicate certification and recognition processes for producers and may increase production costs or reduce profitability.

Specialty coffee production also requires significant investments in cultivation techniques and post-harvest infrastructure. Because these investments can be costly, the specialty coffee sector in Brazil remains concentrated among a relatively limited number of producers.

  • Growing Interest Among Brazilian Consumers

Although Brazil has long been a global coffee powerhouse, domestic appreciation for specialty coffee is relatively recent. Since the early 2000s, coffee culture has evolved significantly as consumers began exploring higher-quality beans, alternative brewing methods, and greater transparency regarding coffee origins.

You may read:India’s Quiet Coffee Superpower

Recent consumer surveys show that some Brazilians have reduced overall coffee consumption in response to rising prices. Nevertheless, demand for specialty coffee continues to grow. The report indicates that consumption of specialty coffee in Brazil has been increasing by about 15 percent per year, significantly faster than the growth of traditional coffee consumption.

Specialty coffee consumption in the country is estimated at around 70,000 tons annually, representing approximately five to ten percent of total coffee consumption.

Consumers interested in specialty coffee tend to seek differentiated beans, visit cafés that emphasize brewing quality, and show greater interest in sustainability practices and traceability.

  • Trade Trends and Export Markets

Brazilian export data does not track specialty coffee as a separate category. Instead, exporters often group it under “differentiated coffees,” which include beans certified for quality, sustainability, or other distinctive characteristics.

According to export data, Brazil shipped 8.1 million bags of differentiated coffees in 2025, representing about 20 percent of the country’s total coffee exports. Although export volumes declined compared with the previous year, revenues increased significantly to approximately 3.5 billion dollars, partly due to favorable exchange rates.

The United States remained the largest destination for Brazilian differentiated coffees, importing about 1.3 million bags, followed by Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy. European markets often function as distribution hubs that supply specialty coffee to other regions.

  • Global Promotion and Future Outlook

Brazil is actively promoting its specialty coffee sector internationally through initiatives designed to strengthen its presence in global markets. One such program focuses on marketing Brazilian specialty coffees through trade fairs, branding campaigns, and partnerships with international buyers.

Priority markets include the United States, Japan, China, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, France, and Australia, while processed coffee products such as roasted and ground coffee are being promoted in markets including Canada, Chile, China, and the United States.

The initiative is scheduled to run until 2027 and aims to expand Brazil’s leadership in the global specialty coffee sector.

The report concludes that rising international demand for traceable, sustainable, and high-quality coffee—combined with ongoing improvements in production and promotion—positions Brazil’s specialty coffee industry for continued growth in the years ahead.

Global Study Maps the “Carbon Footprint” of Latin American Coffee

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A comprehensive international study released in March 2026 has revealed a sharp disparity in the carbon footprint of coffee production across five major Latin American nations. This landmark report establishes the first precise scientific baseline—using primary data collected directly from farms—to address climate change challenges within the global coffee sector.

The study, conducted by Conservation International in collaboration with the Sustainable Coffee Challenge and Meo Carbon Solutions, analyzed supply chains in Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, Mexico, and Peru. The findings provide a “wake-up call” for the industry, highlighting how specific farming practices, particularly fertilization and waste management, dictate environmental impact.

  • The Emission Gap: Colombia Leads while Mexico Sets a Benchmark

Detailed data shows that coffee production in Colombia generates the highest greenhouse gas emission intensity, averaging 5.59 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq) per kilogram of green coffee. Honduras followed with 4.87 kg. In Brazil, the results varied by variety, with Arabica recording 3.22 kg compared to 2.51 kg for Robusta.

Conversely, Mexico emerged as the country with the lowest emissions in the study group, averaging just 1.46 kg. Experts attribute this lower footprint to specific traditional farming practices, including greater reliance on natural shade and organic soil health.

  • Fertilizers: The Primary Climate Culprit

According to the extensive technical report, the most significant “hotspot” for emissions in Latin American coffee is fertilizer and nutrient application. In Colombia and Brazil, fertilization accounts for approximately 60% of the total carbon footprint. This is primarily due to the heavy use of nitrogen-based inputs, which release potent greenhouse gases when interacting with the soil.

In other regions, the drivers differ. In Peru, “crop residues” and unmanaged organic decomposition were identified as the primary sources of emissions. Meanwhile, in Honduras, the traditional wet processing of coffee cherries—specifically the management of wastewater at the farm level—contributes significantly to the national baseline.

  • A “Pre-Competitive” Global Alliance

The study is the result of an unprecedented “pre-competitive” alliance involving major global coffee brands, roasters, and suppliers. Giants such as Nestlé, Starbucks, and JDE Peet’s contributed by sharing primary data and technical oversight to harmonize carbon accounting standards across the industry.

This collaboration aims to empower stakeholders to direct investments toward “regenerative agriculture.” These practices focus on reducing chemical dependency, improving on-farm waste management, and enhancing the soil’s ability to sequester carbon rather than release it.

  • A Roadmap for Investors and Farmers

The report concludes with actionable recommendations, stressing that reducing the carbon footprint is no longer just an environmental goal but a commercial necessity. As international environmental regulations tighten, understanding these baselines is essential for maintaining global market access.

The findings confirm that transitioning to integrated nutrient management, improving water efficiency, and recycling coffee by-products into natural fertilizers are the most effective ways to bridge the carbon gap revealed in countries like Colombia and Honduras.

Japanese Scientists: Coffee Protects Gums from Inflammation

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Japanese researchers have found that chlorogenic acid — a natural compound found in coffee — can reduce gum inflammation and decrease bacteria associated with periodontitis.

The results were published in Dentistry Journal, a leading international dental journal emphasizing high-quality, innovative research with impact on clinical practice, scientific developments, and policy worldwide.

Periodontitis develops due to chronic gum inflammation and destruction of the tissues supporting teeth, which in severe cases can lead to tooth loss.

The primary driver is dental plaque — a bacterial biofilm that changes composition over time and accumulates pathogenic microorganisms.

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These bacteria are difficult to remove with standard hygiene, and dense biofilms are challenging even for professional cleaning.

The researchers investigated whether chlorogenic acid could improve the control of inflammation and pathogenic bacteria.

Laboratory experiments on gum tissue samples and extracted teeth from periodontitis patients assessed the effect on inflammatory markers and microbial growth.

Results showed that chlorogenic acid suppresses pro-inflammatory cytokines, including interleukin‑1β and interleukin‑8, and reduces the proliferation of bacteria such as Streptococcus mutans, Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, and Fusobacterium nucleatum.

According to the authors, the compound exhibits strong anti-inflammatory and antibacterial properties and may serve as a promising adjunct for the prevention and treatment of periodontitis.

This study represents an example of translational research, where laboratory findings could be applied in future clinical practice. However, as the experiments were conducted in vitro, further trials are needed to confirm clinical effectiveness.

 

War Redraws Global Shipping Map and Pressures Coffee Supply Chains

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Dubai – Qahwa World

A fresh escalation in the Middle East at the end of February has sent new shockwaves through global logistics, adding to an already fragile maritime environment shaped by two years of Red Sea disruption and intensifying geopolitical risk.

  • Strait of Hormuz Slowdown Raises Cost Fears

As of 28 February, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints — has slowed dramatically amid heightened security risks. Several carriers, including CMA CGM, have introduced Emergency Conflict Surcharges to offset rising insurance premiums and security-related operating costs.

While coffee shipments do not transit the Strait directly, the knock-on effects are significant. Gulf producers account for roughly 20% of global crude oil supply, and oil prices hovering around $70 per barrel are widely expected to face upward pressure. With bunker fuel representing about 40% of vessel operating costs, further increases in Bunker Adjustment Factors appear likely.

Higher fuel bills, combined with longer routings already in place, are expected to weigh on transit times, vessel availability and global freight rates. For coffee traders, that translates into longer sailing schedules, potential equipment imbalances, reduced schedule reliability and renewed upward pressure on ocean freight costs.

  • The situation remains fluid.

Red Sea: A Crisis Entering Its Third Year

More than two years after the first Houthi missile struck a commercial vessel in the Red Sea, the industry continues to absorb the consequences of one of the most disruptive trade shocks in decades.

The crisis began in November 2023, when Houthi forces seized the Galaxy Leader and launched a sustained campaign targeting merchant vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. At its peak, more than 100 ships were targeted. Traffic volumes through the Red Sea fell by roughly 60%, forcing carriers to divert around the Cape of Good Hope.

Those diversions added between 10 and 14 sailing days, absorbed global capacity and destabilized schedules across major East–West trade lanes.

A Gaza ceasefire toward the end of 2025 briefly encouraged hopes of normalization. Some carriers began adjusting fleet plans in anticipation of a return to Suez routings. However, renewed escalation in the Middle East and fresh Houthi threats have reversed those plans. All major carriers are currently continuing voyages around the Cape of Good Hope.

  • Carrier Responses

Maersk has confirmed that its Middle East–India–U.S. East Coast (MECL) service, originally intended to transit the Red Sea, will be cancelled and rerouted around Africa.

CMA CGM, which had initially led efforts to resume Suez transits, has since withdrawn from most crossings and reverted to previous sailing patterns.

Across the Asia–Europe trade, most services remain diverted, with carriers unwilling to recommit until sustained security assurances emerge.

Roughly 12% of global seaborne trade depends on the Suez Canal — an exposure that underscores the structural vulnerability of the system. Industry leaders now emphasize improved data, faster decision-making and scenario planning as essential tools in a landscape defined by prolonged uncertainty.

  • Hapag-Lloyd Moves to Acquire Zim in $4.2 Billion Deal

Amid the geopolitical turbulence, consolidation continues.

Hapag-Lloyd has agreed to acquire Israeli carrier Zim in a $4.2 billion cash deal, offering $35 per share — a 58% premium to Zim’s share price as of 20 February. The transaction would elevate the Frankfurt-listed group to the world’s fifth-largest container shipping line.

Chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen said the combined network would significantly strengthen services across the Transpacific, Intra-Asia, Atlantic, Latin America and East Mediterranean trades.

To address Israeli government concerns — it holds a golden share in Zim and considers it a strategic asset — Hapag-Lloyd will carve out a separate Israel-focused operator owned by FIMI, launching with 16 vessels.

The transaction is expected to close in late 2026, subject to shareholder, government and regulatory approval.

  • U.S. Maritime Plan Revives Port Fee Debate

In Washington, the Trump administration has unveiled a long-awaited Maritime Action Plan (MAP), reviving a controversial proposal to levy fees on foreign-built vessels calling at U.S. ports.

The 36-page plan outlines a four-pillar strategy aimed at rebuilding U.S. shipbuilding capacity, modernizing maritime training, protecting industrial infrastructure and strengthening national security.

At its core is a proposed per-kilogram fee on imported cargo discharged by foreign-built ships. Modeled between $0.01 and $0.25 per kilogram, the levy could generate approximately $66 billion over a decade at the low end — and up to $1.5 trillion at the high end — significantly exceeding the short-lived port fees introduced in 2025.

President Donald Trump framed the initiative as central to industrial revival, calling for hundreds of billions of dollars in new investment in American shipyards.

Carriers and trade partners, however, have warned that such measures would increase landed costs, distort routing economics and potentially trigger retaliation.

The plan also references bridge strategies, including limited foreign construction tied to U.S. investment commitments, and financing mechanisms such as Title XI and Capital Construction Funds. No firm execution timeline has been announced.

  • Freight Rates: Market Turns Softer in Early 2026

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reading of 1,251.46 on 13 February 2026 reflects a market transitioning toward lower and more volatile rates.

Spot rates for 40-foot high cube containers from Asia to the U.S. West Coast are projected to decline by 30–35% compared with 2025 levels. Although first-quarter seasonality — including pre-Lunar New Year rate increases — has returned, persistent capacity growth and uncertainty surrounding Red Sea developments are expected to keep pressure on spot markets.

  • Schedule Reliability Slips Again

Global schedule reliability fell to 62.8% in December 2025, marking the second-lowest reading since May of that year.

European port congestion remains the primary driver, compounded by rerouting challenges linked to the Red Sea crisis.

Cancelled sailings surged 122% in February 2026 compared with January, tightening effective capacity around the Lunar New Year period.

Although overall reliability has improved relative to 2024, performance remains uneven. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd ranked among the most reliable carriers in late 2025, while others reported on-time rates between 50% and 60%.

  • Trade Lane Snapshot

APAC to Global: Capacity stable; spot rates declining.

India to Global: Tight capacity; slight upward rate trend.

Brazil to Global: Manageable capacity; continued port congestion and gate window constraints; occasional rollovers; rates stable.

Central America to Global: Tight capacity; container shortages (20’ and 40’) reported in Honduras and Nicaragua.

East Africa to Global: Capacity available; severe congestion at Mombasa.

Port Delays Widen

Operational bottlenecks persist across major gateways:

Antwerp (Belgium): 3-day delay

New York (USA): 4-day delay

London Gateway (UK): 5-day delay

Buenaventura (Colombia): 4-day delay

Santos (Brazil): 5-day delay

India (major ports): 4-day delay

Vietnam: 4-day delay

Mombasa (Kenya): 10-day delay

Australia (major ports): 3-day delay

With vessels queuing at multiple hubs and geopolitical risk layered on top of structural capacity shifts, 2026 is shaping up as another year in which resilience — rather than efficiency — defines the global shipping narrative.

Italy Coffee Market Outlook 2026–2031

Posted on by Qahwa World

Tradition Anchors Growth as Pods, Specialty and RTD Gain Ground

DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

Italy’s coffee sector is projected to expand steadily through 2031, supported by strong domestic consumption, product innovation and premiumisation trends, even as competition from alternative beverages intensifies.

According to a recent industry analysis published by Research and Markets, the Italian coffee market is estimated at USD 5.92 billion in 2026, up from USD 5.61 billion in 2025. The market is forecast to reach USD 7.71 billion by 2031, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.44% between 2026 and 2031.

A Market Rooted in Culture

Coffee consumption remains deeply embedded in Italy’s daily life and social fabric. Espresso culture, regional roasting traditions and the central role of cafés continue to sustain stable demand across retail and foodservice channels.

Data from the European Coffee Federation shows European coffee sales rising from EUR 2.45 billion in 2022 to EUR 2.57 billion in 2023, reflecting consistent consumption patterns in mature markets such as Italy. The country continues to shape broader European coffee dynamics through its heritage brands and café culture.

Ground coffee remains the backbone of the market, reflecting traditional brewing habits in both households and professional settings.

Segment Performance: Leaders and Fastest Growers

Ground Coffee: Market Leader

Ground coffee accounted for 34.10% of market share in 2025, maintaining its leadership due to Italy’s strong preference for authentic espresso preparation. Its versatility across brewing methods and wide range of blends and roast profiles reinforce its dominance.

Pods and Capsules: Fastest Growth

Coffee pods and capsules represent the fastest-growing segment, with a projected CAGR of 6.31% through 2031. Growth is driven by convenience, single-serve machine adoption and demand for consistent quality in homes and offices. Innovation in cross-compatible systems and flavor diversification continues to support expansion.

Plain Coffee: Cultural Mainstay

Plain coffee holds a commanding 78.20% market share in 2025, underscoring consumer preference for traditional, unflavored coffee that highlights bean quality and roasting craftsmanship.

Flavored Coffee: Emerging Momentum

Flavored coffee is projected to grow at a 7.02% CAGR through 2031, reflecting changing tastes among younger consumers and urban markets seeking diversified flavor experiences.

Innovation and Premiumisation

Italian consumers remain loyal to tradition but increasingly embrace innovation that blends heritage with modern preferences. Product development is expanding into:

  • Specialty and single-origin offerings

  • Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee

  • Sustainable and ethically sourced products

  • Smart brewing systems

  • E-commerce and digital sales channels

International brands are also adapting to the Italian market. In February 2023, Starbucks Corporation introduced its Oleato olive oil coffee range in Italy, combining espresso with olive oil in beverages designed to align with local culinary identity while offering a differentiated experience.

Sustainability and ethical sourcing are increasingly important purchase drivers, while climate volatility remains a structural risk factor affecting global green coffee supply.

Competitive Pressures from Alternative Beverages

The broader beverage landscape in Italy is evolving. Functional teas, energy drinks, matcha, kombucha and plant-based beverages are gaining visibility, particularly among younger consumers. Specialty tea shops and bubble tea outlets are expanding in major cities, competing with traditional coffee bars as social spaces.

In response, coffee companies are diversifying portfolios to include tea, functional drinks and wellness-oriented beverages, leveraging established distribution networks and brand recognition.

Corporate Spotlight: Illycaffè Expands U.S. Production

Premium Italian roaster Illycaffè plans to begin production in the United States in 2026 as part of its international growth strategy.

Chief Executive Officer Cristina Scocchia stated that between 15% and 20% of the company’s U.S. sales volume will be produced locally starting early next year. The move aims to improve supply chain flexibility and enhance proximity to consumers.

Illycaffè expects overall turnover to rise approximately 10% year-on-year to around €690 million, with reported growth of 11% in Italy and 19% in the United States at constant exchange rates. However, the company faces continued cost pressure from elevated green coffee prices, which rose significantly in 2025 due to weather-related supply disruptions and global market volatility.

Founded in 1933 in Trieste, Illycaffè operates in more than 140 countries and remains a key player in the premium espresso segment.

Market Structure and Key Players

The Italian coffee market is segmented by:

  • Product Type: Whole bean, ground coffee, instant coffee and others

  • Flavor: Plain and flavored

  • Category: Conventional and specialty

  • Bean Type: Arabica, Robusta and others

  • Distribution Channel: On-trade and off-trade

Major companies operating in the market include:

  • Luigi Lavazza S.p.A.

  • Nestlé S.A.

  • Kimbo S.p.A.

  • Starbucks Corporation

  • Gruppo Illy S.p.A.

  • Tchibo GmbH

  • JDE Peet’s N.V.

  • Segafredo Zanetti S.p.A.

  • Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group

Outlook

Italy’s coffee market remains mature but dynamic. Traditional espresso culture continues to anchor demand, while growth is increasingly concentrated in pods, capsules, specialty formats and ready-to-drink beverages.

As sustainability priorities, technological integration and premium positioning reshape the competitive landscape, Italy is expected to maintain its dual role as both a heritage-driven coffee market and a hub for innovation within Europe’s broader coffee industry.